R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company v. FDA ( 2012 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued April 10, 2012              Decided August 24, 2012
    No. 11-5332
    R.J. REYNOLDS TOBACCO COMPANY, ET AL.,
    APPELLEES
    v.
    FOOD & DRUG ADMINISTRATION, ET AL.,
    APPELLANTS
    Consolidated with No. 12-5063
    Appeals from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:11-cv-01482)
    Mark B. Stern, Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice,
    argued the cause for appellants. With him on the briefs were
    Tony West, Assistant Attorney General, Beth S. Brinkmann,
    Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Alisa B. Klein, Sarang V.
    Damle, Daniel Tenny, and Lindsey Powell, Attorneys,
    William B. Schultz, Acting General Counsel, U.S. Department
    of Health and Human Services, Eric M. Blumberg, Deputy
    2
    Chief Counsel, and Karen E. Schifter, Senior Counsel. R.
    Craig Lawrence, Assistant U.S. Attorney, entered an
    appearance.
    Gregory A. Beck and Allison M. Zieve were on the brief
    for amici curiae American Academy of Pediatrics, et al. in
    support of appellants.
    Lawrence G. Wasden, Attorney General, Office of the
    Attorney General for the State of Idaho, Brett T. DeLange,
    Deputy Attorney General, John J. Burns, Attorney General,
    Office of the Attorney General for the State of Alaska, Tom
    Horne, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General for
    the State of Arizona, Dustin McDaniel, Attorney General,
    Office of the Attorney General for the State of Arkansas,
    Kamala D. Harris, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney
    General for the State of California, George Jepsen, Attorney
    General, Office of the Attorney General for the State of
    Connecticut, Todd S. Kim, Solicitor General, Office of the
    Attorney General for the District of Columbia, David M.
    Louie, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General for
    the State of Hawai’i, Lisa Madigan, Attorney General, Office
    of the Attorney General for the State of Illinois, Thomas J.
    Miller, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General for
    the State of Iowa, William J. Schneider, Attorney General,
    Office of the Attorney General for the State of Maine,
    Douglas F. Gansler, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney
    for the State of Maryland, Jim Hood, Attorney General,
    Office of the Attorney General for the State of Mississippi,
    Steve Bullock, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney
    General for the State of Montana, Michael A. Delaney,
    Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General for the State
    of New Hampshire, Gary K. King Attorney General, Office of
    the Attorney General for the State of New Mexico, Michael
    DeWine, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General for
    3
    the State of Ohio, Peter F. Kilmartin, Attorney General,
    Office of the Attorney General for the State of Rhode Island,
    Marty J. Jackley, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney
    General for the State of South Dakota, Mark L. Shurtleff,
    Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General for the State
    of Utah, William H. Sorrell, Attorney General, Office of the
    Attorney General for the State of Vermont, Vincent F.
    Frazier, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General for
    the Virgin Islands, Robert M. McKenna, Attorney General,
    Office of the Attorney General for the State of Washington,
    and Darrell V. McGraw, Jr., Attorney General, Office of the
    Attorney General for the State of West Virginia, were on the
    brief for amici curiae States.
    Noel J. Francisco argued the cause for appellees. With
    him on the briefs were Warren D. Postman, Philip J. Perry,
    Jonathan D. Hacker, Floyd Abrams, Joel Kurtzberg, and
    Patricia A. Barald.
    Bert W. Rein, John E. Barry, Robin S. Conrad, Kathryn
    Comerford Todd, and Sheldon Gilbert were on the brief for
    amicus curiae Chamber of Commerce of the United States of
    America in support of appellees.
    Daniel J. Popeo, Cory L. Andrews, and Richard A. Samp
    were on the brief for amicus curiae Washington Legal
    Foundation.
    Robert Corn-Revere and Ronald G. London were on the
    brief for amici curiae Association of National Advertisers
    Inc., et al. in support of appellees.
    Jeffrey Light was on the brief for amicus curiae
    Defending Animal Rights Today & Tomorrow in support of
    neither party.
    4
    Before: ROGERS and BROWN, Circuit Judges, and
    RANDOLPH, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge BROWN.
    Dissenting opinion filed by Circuit Judge ROGERS.
    BROWN, Circuit Judge: The Family Smoking Prevention
    and Tobacco Control Act (“the Act”), Pub. L. No. 111-31,
    
    123 Stat. 1776
     (2009), directed the Secretary of the U.S.
    Department of Health and Human Services to issue
    regulations requiring all cigarette packages manufactured or
    sold in the United States to bear one of nine new textual
    warnings, as well as “color graphics depicting the negative
    health consequences of smoking.” See 
    id.
     § 201(a). Pursuant
    to this authority, the Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”)
    initiated a rulemaking proceeding through which it selected
    the nine images that would accompany the statutorily-
    prescribed warnings.        Five tobacco companies (“the
    Companies”) challenged the rule, alleging that FDA’s
    proposed graphic warnings violated the First Amendment. See
    Compl. at 35-36.1 The district court granted the Companies’
    motion for summary judgment on February 29, 2012.2 FDA
    appeals, and we affirm.
    1
    The Companies also alleged the graphic warnings violated the
    Administrative Procedure Act (“APA”), specifically 
    5 U.S.C. §§ 553
    (b)(3) and 706(2)(A). See Compl. at 37. Because we hold the
    graphic warnings violate the First Amendment, we do not reach the
    Companies’ APA claims.
    2
    FDA originally appealed the district court’s grant of the
    Companies’ motion for a preliminary injunction, but that ruling was
    superseded by the court’s subsequent ruling on the merits.
    5
    I.   Background
    The Act gives FDA the authority to regulate the
    manufacture and sale of tobacco products, including
    cigarettes. In addition to requiring cigarette packages and
    advertisements to bear one of nine new warning statements,
    the Act mandates that the new warning labels comprise the
    top 50 percent of the front and rear panels of cigarette
    packages and 20 percent of the area of each cigarette
    advertisement. Act § 201(a), 123 Stat. at 1842–45. The Act
    directs the Secretary to issue final regulations identifying the
    graphic component of the warnings by June 22, 2011, and
    provides that the revised health warnings will take effect by
    September 22, 2012. See 
    15 U.S.C. § 1333
     note.
    Pursuant to the statutory directive, FDA issued a
    Proposed Rule seeking comment on thirty-six potential
    images for the new graphic warning labels. Required
    Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements, 
    75 Fed. Reg. 69,524
    , 69,534 (Nov. 12, 2010) (hereinafter Proposed
    Rule). At the outset of the Proposed Rule, FDA asserted the
    government’s “substantial interest in reducing the number of
    Americans, particularly children and adolescents, who use
    cigarettes and other tobacco products in order to prevent the
    life-threatening health consequences associated with tobacco
    use.” Id. at 69,525. In accordance with the requirements of
    the Act, FDA proposed a dramatic expansion of the existing
    health warnings, which it justified based on scientific
    literature and a “strong worldwide consensus”3 regarding the
    3
    Countries/jurisdictions that have implemented pictorial warning
    requirements for tobacco packaging include Australia, Belgium,
    Brazil, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cook Islands, Djibouti,
    Egypt, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Jordan, Latvia, Malaysia, Mauritius,
    Mexico, Mongolia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay,
    Peru, Romania, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey,
    6
    relative effectiveness of graphic warnings compared to the
    text-only warnings the United States currently requires. Id.
    The agency explained that by “clearly and effectively
    convey[ing] the negative health consequences of smoking,”
    the new warnings would discourage nonsmokers, particularly
    minors, from “initiating cigarette use,” and encourage current
    smokers to quit. Id. at 69,526.
    FDA promulgated the final set of nine images—one for
    each warning statement—by regulations issued on June 22,
    2011. See Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and
    Advertisements, 
    76 Fed. Reg. 36,628
     (June 22, 2011)
    (hereinafter Final Rule). FDA also required each graphic
    image to bear the phone number of the National Cancer
    Institute’s “Network of Tobacco Cessation Quitlines,” which
    uses the telephone portal “1-800-QUIT-NOW.” Id. at 36,681.
    FDA based its selection of the final images on an 18,000-
    person internet-based consumer study it commissioned. The
    study divided respondents into two groups: a control group
    that was shown the new text in the format of the current
    warnings (located on the side of cigarette packages), and a
    separate treatment group that was shown the proposed graphic
    warnings, which included the new text, the accompanying
    graphic image, and the 1-800-QUIT-NOW number. Id. at
    36,638. Each group then answered questions designed to
    assess, among other things, whether the graphic warnings,
    relative to the text-only control, (1) increased viewers’
    intention to quit or refrain from smoking; (2) increased
    United Kingdom, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Countries/jurisdictions
    with pending requirements include France, Guernsey, Honduras,
    Malta, Norway, the Philippines, and Spain. It is worth noting that
    the constitutions of these countries do not necessarily protect
    individual liberties as stringently as does the United States
    Constitution. Proposed Rule at 69,525 n.4.
    7
    viewers’ knowledge of the health risks of smoking or second-
    hand smoke; and (3) were “salient,” which FDA defined in
    part as causing viewers to feel “depressed,” “discouraged,” or
    “afraid.” Id.
    In selecting these nine images, FDA reviewed and
    responded to over a thousand public comments, including
    joint comments submitted by plaintiffs-appellees RJ
    Reynolds, Lorillard, and Commonwealth Brands. See id. at
    36,629.      Several comments—including comments from
    cancer researchers, nonprofits, and academics—criticized the
    single exposure study design, noting it prevented the
    government from assessing the long-term or actual effects of
    the proposed warnings.            Two of these comments
    recommended FDA conduct longitudinal research or post-
    market surveillance to assess actual long-term effects. Id. at
    36,639. FDA conceded the study did not permit it to reach
    “firm” conclusions about the “long-term, real-world effects”
    of the proposed warnings, but claimed the existing scientific
    literature “provides a substantial basis for our conclusion that
    the required warnings will effectively communicate the health
    risks of smoking, thereby encouraging smoking cessation and
    discouraging smoking initiation.” Id. Still other comments
    asserted that FDA’s research study failed to provide evidence
    that the proposed warnings would actually affect smoking
    rates, significantly affect consumers knowledge of the risks of
    smoking, or bring about actual behavior change. See id. at
    36,640. But FDA disagreed, again relying on the “substantial
    research” showing the effectiveness of similar graphic health
    warnings in other countries. Id. (citing Proposed Rule at
    69,531-34).4 Another comment asserted that the study’s
    4
    Tobacco manufacturers also criticized the “study’s use of
    intentions to measure behavioral change and stated that FDA
    should have presented data showing actual effects on behavior.”
    8
    selection bias constituted a serious methodological flaw.
    Namely, participants were recruited from an internet panel
    and offered the opportunity to participate in an FDA-
    sponsored research study. Id. at 36,643. FDA avoided the
    substance of this argument by conceding that its study
    “provides insight on the relative effectiveness of the various
    warnings under consideration,” not on the “absolute effects of
    the warnings in general.” Id.
    Some comments also criticized the lack of statistical
    evidence supporting FDA’s belief that requiring cigarette
    packages to bear the graphic warnings would reduce smoking
    rates. See id. For example, the Companies noted that the
    Canadian data revealed no statistically significant decline in
    smoking rates for adolescents and adults after the introduction
    of similar graphic warnings, which implied that the warnings
    were ineffective and that FDA’s warnings would be
    ineffective as well. Id. FDA summarily disagreed, stating
    that the images it selected would satisfy its “primary goal,
    which is to effectively convey the negative health
    Final Rule at 36,642. FDA disagreed that intentions were an
    inappropriate variable, explaining that while intentions do not
    perfectly predict future behavior, they are a “necessary precursor.”
    Id.     FDA also cites the “scientific literature[’s]” shocking
    conclusion “that one’s intentions to quit smoking must be increased
    before one makes the actual quit attempt.” Id. In response to
    comments raising concerns about the lack of strong statistically
    significant results concerning intention, FDA explained that
    although its study made no attempt to show that increased intention
    to quit translated to actual (let alone successful) quit attempts, “the
    overall body of scientific literature” provides sufficient evidence
    that the warnings, “by increasing public understanding of and
    thoughts about the health risks of smoking, will be effective in
    encouraging smoking cessation and discouraging smoking
    initiation.” Id.
    9
    consequences of smoking on cigarette packages and in
    advertisements,” which can help “both to discourage
    nonsmokers . . . from initiating cigarette use and to encourage
    current smokers to consider cessation.” Final Rule at 36,633.
    FDA also explained that the data from Canada did not
    indicate that the warnings had been ineffective, because other
    studies showed that the warnings had been “effective at
    providing . . . smokers with health information, making
    consumers think about the health effects of smoking, and
    increasing smokers’ motivations to quit smoking.” Id. at
    36,634.
    After FDA finalized the Rule, the Companies filed suit in
    the district court, claiming the cigarette warnings required
    under the Act and FDA’s implementing regulations violated
    the First Amendment.        The district court granted the
    Companies’ motion for a preliminary injunction on November
    7, 2011, and subsequently granted their motion for summary
    judgment. FDA appeals, and we review de novo the district
    court’s decision to grant summary judgment. Davis v.
    Pension Benefit Guar. Corp., 
    571 F.3d 1288
    , 1291 (D.C. Cir.
    2009).
    II. Level of Scrutiny
    The Companies do not dispute Congress’s authority to
    require health warnings on cigarette packages, nor do they
    challenge the substance of any of the nine textual statements
    mandated by the Act. The only question before us is whether
    FDA’s promulgation of the graphic warning labels—which
    incorporate the textual warnings, a corresponding graphic
    image, and the “1-800-QUIT-NOW” cessation hotline
    number—violates the First Amendment. We begin our
    analysis by determining the applicable level of scrutiny.
    10
    Both the right to speak and the right to refrain from
    speaking are “complementary components of the broader
    concept of individual freedom of mind” protected by the First
    Amendment. Wooley v. Maynard, 
    430 U.S. 705
    , 714 (1977).
    Any attempt by the government either to compel individuals
    to express certain views, see 
    id. at 714-15
    , or to subsidize
    speech to which they object, see United States v. United
    Foods, Inc., 
    533 U.S. 405
    , 410-11 (2001), is subject to strict
    scrutiny. The general rule “that the speaker has the right to
    tailor the speech[] applies not only to expressions of value,
    opinion, or endorsement, but equally to statements of fact the
    speaker would rather avoid.” Hurley v. Irish-Am. Gay,
    Lesbian & Bisexual Grp. of Bos., 
    515 U.S. 557
    , 573-74
    (1995). This holds true whether individuals, see W. Va. State
    Bd. of Educ. v. Barnette, 
    319 U.S. 624
    , 642 (1943), or
    corporations, see Pac. Gas & Elec. Co. v. Pub. Utils.
    Comm’n, 
    475 U.S. 1
    , 16 (1986) (plurality opinion), are being
    compelled to speak.
    This case contains elements of compulsion and forced
    subsidization. The Companies contend that, to the extent the
    graphic warnings go beyond the textual warnings to shame
    and repulse smokers and denigrate smoking as an antisocial
    act, the message is ideological and not informational. “[B]y
    effectively shouting well-understood information to
    consumers,” they explain, “FDA is communicating an
    ideological message, a point of view on how people should
    live their lives: that the risks from smoking outweigh the
    pleasure that smokers derive from it, and that smokers make
    bad personal decisions, and should stop smoking.” In effect,
    the graphic images are not warnings, but admonitions:
    “[D]on’t buy or use this product.”5 No one doubts the
    5
    The question here is whether the graphic warnings actually do
    constitute the type of disclosure requirements that are reviewable
    11
    government can promote smoking cessation programs; can
    use shock, shame, and moral opprobrium to discourage people
    from becoming smokers; and can use its taxing and regulatory
    authority to make smoking economically prohibitive and
    socially onerous. And the government can certainly require
    that consumers be fully informed about the dangers of
    hazardous products. But this case raises novel questions
    about the scope of the government’s authority to force the
    manufacturer of a product to go beyond making purely factual
    and accurate commercial disclosures and undermine its own
    economic interest—in this case, by making “every single pack
    of cigarettes in the country [a] mini billboard” for the
    government’s anti-smoking message.6
    Even assuming the Companies’ marketing efforts
    (packaging, branding, and other advertisements) can be
    properly classified as commercial speech, and thus subject to
    under Zauderer’s relaxed standard”—what the dissent characterizes
    as “attempts ‘only to prescribe what shall be orthodox in
    commercial advertising,” Dissent at 8 (quoting Zauderer v. Office
    of Disciplinary Counsel, 
    471 U.S. 626
    , 651 (1985))—or whether
    they are more akin to attempts to “prescribe what shall be orthodox
    in . . . matters of opinion,” Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    , as the
    Companies contend. The dissent overlooks the element of
    compulsion, which at least creates an argument in favor of applying
    strict scrutiny.
    6
    FDA, Tobacco Strategy Announcement (Nov. 10, 2010), available
    at
    http://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/NewsEvents/ucm232556.htm
    ; see also Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney, Health and
    Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, and FDA
    Commissioner Margaret Hamburg (June 21, 2011), available at
    http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/06/21/press-
    briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-secretary-health-and-human-
    ser.
    12
    less robust First Amendment protections, a thorny question
    remains: how much leeway should this Court grant the
    government when it seeks to compel a product’s manufacturer
    to convey the state’s subjective—and perhaps even
    ideological—view that consumers should reject this otherwise
    legal, but disfavored, product? Neither the Act nor the
    agency’s regulation squarely addresses this question.
    However, for present purposes, we can assume, without
    deciding, that if such compulsion is constitutionally
    permissible, the state’s actions must still withstand the
    applicable level of scrutiny.
    Courts have recognized a handful of “narrow and well-
    understood exceptions” to the general rule that content-based
    speech regulations—including compelled speech—are subject
    to strict scrutiny. See Turner Broad. Sys., Inc. v. FCC, 
    512 U.S. 622
    , 641 (1994). There are two primary exceptions in
    the commercial speech context. First, “purely factual and
    uncontroversial” disclosures are permissible if they are
    “reasonably related to the State’s interest in preventing
    deception of consumers,” provided the requirements are not
    “unjustified or unduly burdensome.” Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    . Second, restrictions on commercial speech are subject to
    less stringent review than restrictions on other types of
    speech. For a statute burdening commercial speech to
    survive, the government must affirmatively prove that (1) its
    asserted interest is substantial, (2) the restriction directly and
    materially advances that interest, and (3) the restriction is
    narrowly tailored. See Cent. Hudson Gas & Elec. Corp. v.
    Pub. Serv. Comm’n, 
    447 U.S. 557
    , 566 (1980). While this
    test is not quite as demanding as strict scrutiny, it is
    significantly more stringent than Zauderer’s standard, which
    is akin to rational-basis review.
    13
    The district court concluded the graphic warnings were
    “not the type of purely factual and uncontroversial”
    disclosures reviewable under the less stringent Zauderer
    standard. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. v. FDA, Civ. Case No.
    11-1482, at 11 (D.D.C. Feb. 29, 2012) (hereinafter “Merits
    Opinion”). Applying strict scrutiny, the court held that FDA
    failed to satisfy its burden of demonstrating that the Rule is
    narrowly tailored to achieve a compelling government
    interest. See id. at 17-19. FDA argues that the district court
    erred in finding the Zauderer standard inapplicable.
    Alternatively, it contends that the district court erred by
    failing to apply the intermediate-level scrutiny generally
    afforded to commercial speech, and that the graphic warnings
    pass constitutional muster under Central Hudson.          We
    address each argument in turn.
    a.   Applicability of the Zauderer Standard
    In Zauderer, the Court applied a lower level of scrutiny
    to regulations requiring attorneys to fully disclose information
    about the actual cost and consequences of services. 
    471 U.S. at 651-52
    . Noting that the First Amendment’s protection of
    commercial speech is premised on its informational value to
    consumers, the Court reasoned that an advertiser’s
    constitutional interest in not providing additional factual
    information was “minimal.” Id. at 561. Although the Court
    acknowledged that “unjustified or unduly burdensome
    disclosure requirements might offend the First Amendment by
    chilling protected commercial speech,” it “h[e]ld that an
    advertiser’s rights are adequately protected as long as
    disclosure requirements are reasonably related to the State’s
    interest in preventing deception of consumers.” Id.; see also
    Milavetz, Gallop & Milavetz, P.A. v. United States, 
    130 S. Ct. 1324
    , 1340 (2010) (applying the Zauderer standard to
    14
    disclosure requirements “intended to combat the problem of
    inherently misleading commercial advertisements”).
    The Supreme Court has never applied Zauderer to
    disclosure requirements not designed to correct misleading
    commercial speech. FDA argues that Zauderer’s lenient
    standard of scrutiny applies to regulations that serve a
    different governmental interest: disclosure of the health and
    safety risks associated with commercial products. See
    Appellant’s Br. at 26.
    But by its own terms, Zauderer’s holding is limited to
    cases in which disclosure requirements are “reasonably
    related to the State’s interest in preventing deception of
    consumers.” 
    471 U.S. at 651
    . Zauderer “carries no authority
    for a mandate unrelated to the interest in avoiding misleading
    or incomplete commercial messages.” Glickman v. Wileman
    Bros. & Elliot, Inc., 
    521 U.S. 457
    , 491 (1997) (Souter, J.,
    dissenting, joined by Rehnquist, C.J., and Scalia and Thomas,
    JJ.) (explaining why Zauderer was inapplicable in that case).7
    In United States v. United Foods, for example, the Court
    declined to apply the Zauderer standard when evaluating a
    federal law requiring mushroom producers to pay an
    assessment to support generic advertising.         The Court
    distinguished Zauderer because there was no suggestion “that
    the mandatory assessments imposed to require one group of
    private persons to pay for speech by others are somehow
    necessary to make voluntary advertisements non-misleading
    for consumers.” 
    533 U.S. at 416
    . And as the Court explained
    in Pacific Gas, “[n]othing in Zauderer suggests . . . that the
    7
    Justice Souter noted that, although it was not cited by the
    government in Glickman, Zauderer represented “the closest pass at
    authority for his limited rationale of commercial speech protection”
    because it was “our only examination of a commercial-speech
    mandate before today.” 
    521 U.S. at 490
    .
    15
    State is equally free to require [entities] to carry the messages
    of third parties, where the messages themselves are biased
    against or are expressly contrary to the [entity’s] views.” 
    475 U.S. at
    15 n.12 (plurality opinion).
    Ibanez v. Florida Department of Business and
    Professional Regulation also suggests that Zauderer should
    be construed to apply only when the government affirmatively
    demonstrates that an advertisement threatens to deceive
    consumers. In that case, the state Board of Accountancy
    contended that an attorney’s use of her Certified Financial
    Planner designation in an advertisement was “potentially
    misleading,” and thus entitled the Board to require her to
    include a disclaimer. 
    512 U.S. 136
    , 146 (1994). But the
    Court declined to apply Zauderer, finding that “given the state
    of this record,” the Board failed “to point to any harm that is
    potentially real, not purely hypothetical.” 
    Id.
     Put simply, the
    government could not seek review under the lenient Zauderer
    standard absent a showing that the advertisement at issue
    would likely mislead consumers.
    In fact, the Court’s only recent application of the
    Zauderer standard involved a disclosure requirement that
    “share[d] the essential features of the rule at issue in
    Zauderer.” Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1340
    . In Milavetz, a law
    firm challenged a provision of the Bankruptcy Abuse
    Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005
    (“BAPCPA”) that required professionals qualifying as debt
    relief agencies to “clearly and conspicuously disclose in any
    advertisement of bankruptcy assistance services . . . that the
    services or benefits are with respect to bankruptcy relief under
    this title.” 
    11 U.S.C. § 528
    (a)(3). BAPCPA also required
    qualifying professionals to state that “[w]e are a debt relief
    agency. We help people file for bankruptcy relief under the
    Bankruptcy Code.” 
    Id.
     § 528(a)(4). The Court upheld the
    16
    statute’s disclosure requirement because, as in Zauderer, the
    law firm’s advertisements were “inherently misleading”—in
    this case, because they “promis[ed] . . . debt relief without any
    reference to the possibility of filing for bankruptcy, which has
    inherent costs.” Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1340
    . One Justice
    even cautioned against interpreting the Court’s holding as a
    “presumptive[] endorse[ment of] laws requiring the use of
    government-scripted disclaimers in commercial advertising,”
    noting that Zauderer does not stand for the proposition that
    government “can constitutionally compel the use of a scripted
    disclaimer in any circumstance in which its interest in
    preventing consumer deception might plausibly be at stake.”
    
    Id. at 1343-44
     (Thomas, J., concurring in part and concurring
    in the judgment).
    Zauderer, Ibanez, and Milavetz thus establish that a
    disclosure requirement is only appropriate if the government
    shows that, absent a warning, there is a self-evident—or at
    least “potentially real”—danger that an advertisement will
    mislead consumers. Ibanez, 512 U.S. at 146. In this case, the
    proposed disclosure requirements would apply to both
    cigarette advertisements and cigarette packages. The Act
    bans any labeling or advertising representing that any tobacco
    product “presents a lower risk of tobacco-related disease or is
    less harmful than one or more other commercially marketed
    tobacco products,” “contains a reduced level of a substance or
    presents a reduced exposure to a substance,” or “does not
    contain or is free of a substance.” 21 U.S.C. § 387k. The Act
    also bans advertising or labeling using the descriptors “light,”
    “mild,” “low,” or similar descriptors. Id. In light of these
    restrictions, and in the absence of any congressional findings
    on the misleading nature of cigarette packaging itself, there is
    no justification under Zauderer for the graphic warnings.
    17
    The dissent’s argument that cigarette packages and other
    advertisements that fail to prominently display the negative
    health consequences of smoking are misleading, see Dissent
    at 12-13, seems to blame the industry for playing by the
    government’s rules. The Companies have never argued that
    no disclosure requirements are warranted; they merely object
    to the form and content of the specific requirements proposed
    by the FDA. Indeed, it seems likely the FDA did not make
    any such claims because the industry has complied precisely
    with all of the government’s previous disclosure
    requirements, and continues to do so. Moreover, the
    Companies generally acknowledge the need for effective
    warnings and concede in their brief that they would be
    amenable to a number of new disclosure requirements,
    including putting the Act’s new text on the side of packages,
    the bottom front of packages and advertisements, or using less
    shocking graphics. Appellees’ Br. at 58.8
    The amicus States suggest that the graphic warnings be
    evaluated in the context of the years of deception that
    preceded them.9 States’ Br. at 7. Citing Warner-Lambert Co.
    8
    The dissent also claims that the government has provided “more
    than sufficient evidence that cigarette packages and other
    advertisements remain likely to mislead consumers notwithstanding
    the existing warnings.” Dissent at 11. In the Final Rule, the FDA
    found that consumers are uninformed about “the nature and extent
    of the health risks associated with smoking cigarettes,” Final Rule
    at 36,632, such as “the severity and magnitude” of those risks, their
    personal risks, the effects of secondhand smoke, and the highly
    addictive nature of cigarettes. See id. at 36,632-33. But none of the
    proposed warnings purport to address the information gaps
    identified by the government.
    9
    To the extent that there is a concern about the Companies’ past
    deception, the Act precludes them from “portray[ing] the use of
    tobacco as . . . healthful to minors,” see Act § 2(17), 123 Stat. at
    18
    v. FTC, 
    562 F.2d 749
     (D.C. Cir. 1977) they claim this Court
    has found that even advertisements that do not appear
    deceptive in isolation can constitute “part of a continuing
    deception of the public” absent highly visible warnings. 
    Id. at 769
    . But the States’ argument overlooks the broader context
    of that decision. Warner-Lambert involved a petition for
    review of an FTC order requiring the Warner-Lambert
    company to cease and desist from advertising that its product,
    Listerine mouthwash, prevents, cures, or alleviates the
    common cold. 
    Id. at 752
    . As a remedial measure, the
    Commission required Warner-Lambert to include the
    following disclosure in every future advertisement for
    Listerine for a defined period: “Contrary to prior advertising,
    Listerine will not help prevent colds or sore throats or lessen
    their severity.” 
    Id. at 753
    . In other words, the disclosure
    statement was required as part of a corrective order which the
    Commission found necessary to “dissipate the effects of
    respondent’s deceptive representations.” 
    Id. at 769
    ; see also
    Novartis Corp. v. FTC, 
    223 F.3d 783
    , 788-89 (D.C. Cir.
    2000) (upholding the Commission’s corrective order
    imposing disclosure requirements on drug manufacturer).
    By contrast, FDA does not frame this rule as a remedial
    measure designed to counteract specific deceptive claims
    made by the Companies, nor did it offer a remedial
    justification for the graphic warnings during the rulemaking
    proceeding. While the Companies’ representations about
    “light” or “low tar” cigarettes might have been misleading,
    see United States v. Philip Morris USA Inc., 
    566 F.3d 1095
    ,
    1124-26 (D.C. Cir. 2009), the Act now prohibits such
    1778, by precluding the Companies from using “light” and other
    descriptors. See 21 U.S.C. § 387k. And Congress’s objection to
    the Companies’ portrayal of smoking as “socially acceptable” is
    likewise remedied by the constraints of the Act.
    19
    statements. See 21 U.S.C. § 387k. Unlike in Warner-
    Lambert, FDA has not shown that the graphic warnings were
    designed to correct any false or misleading claims made by
    cigarette manufacturers in the past.10 Nor did it show that
    absent disclosure, consumers would likely be deceived by the
    Companies’ packaging in the future. Rather, FDA framed the
    warnings as general disclosures about the negative health
    effects of smoking. The warnings thus represent an ongoing
    effort to discourage consumers from buying the Companies’
    products, rather than, as in Warner-Lambert, a measure
    designed to combat specific deceptive claims.
    Moreover, the graphic warnings do not constitute the type
    of “purely factual and uncontroversial” information,
    Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    , or “accurate statement[s],”
    Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1340
    , to which the Zauderer standard
    may be applied. The disclosures approved in Zauderer and
    Milavetz were clear statements that were both indisputably
    accurate and not subject to misinterpretation by consumers.
    See Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 633
     (describing the disciplinary
    rule that required “that any advertisement that mentions
    contingent-fee rates must disclos[e] whether percentages are
    computed before or after deduction of court costs and
    expenses”); Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1330
     (describing BAPCPA
    disclosure requirements, including, inter alia, a statement that
    “[w]e are a debt relief agency. We help people file for relief
    under the Bankruptcy Code.”).
    The FDA’s images are a much different animal. FDA
    concedes that the images are not meant to be interpreted
    literally, but rather to symbolize the textual warning
    10
    Such matters are the subject of a pending—and entirely
    separate—line of litigation against the Companies. See Philip
    Morris USA Inc., 
    566 F.3d 1095
    .
    20
    statements, which provide “additional context for what is
    shown.” Final Rule at 36,655. But many of the images
    chosen by FDA could be misinterpreted by consumers. For
    example, the image of a man smoking through a tracheotomy
    hole might be misinterpreted as suggesting that such a
    procedure is a common consequence of smoking—a more
    logical interpretation than FDA’s contention that it
    symbolizes “the addictive nature of cigarettes,” which
    requires significant extrapolation on the part of the
    consumers. Id. at 36,649. Moreover, the graphic warnings
    are not “purely” factual because—as FDA tacitly admits—
    they are primarily intended to evoke an emotional response,
    or, at most, shock the viewer into retaining the information in
    the text warning. See Appellant’s Br. at 33 (citing research
    showing that “pictures are easier to remember than words”);
    id. at 38 (citing FDA’s finding that a substantial body of
    scientific literature shows that emotional responses, such as
    worry and disgust, “reliably predict the likelihood that
    consumers will understand and appreciate the substance of the
    warnings”).
    In fact, many of the images do not convey any warning
    information at all, much less make an “accurate statement”
    about cigarettes. For example, the images of a woman crying,
    a small child, and the man wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with
    the words “I QUIT” do not offer any information about the
    health effects of smoking. And the “1-800-QUIT-NOW”
    number, when presented without any explanation about the
    services provided on the hotline, hardly sounds like an
    unbiased source of information. These inflammatory images
    and the provocatively-named hotline cannot rationally be
    viewed as pure attempts to convey information to consumers.
    They are unabashed attempts to evoke emotion (and perhaps
    embarrassment) and browbeat consumers into quitting. See
    Final Rule at 36,697 (“[R]isk information is most readily
    21
    conveyed by warnings that elicit . . . strong emotional and
    cognitive reactions . . . .”). While none of these images are
    patently false, they certainly do not impart purely factual,
    accurate, or uncontroversial information to consumers.
    Consequently, the images fall outside the ambit of Zauderer.
    b. Applicability of Central Hudson
    Because this case does not fall within the narrow enclave
    carved out by Zauderer, we must next determine which level
    of scrutiny—strict or intermediate—is appropriate. The
    district court held that compelled speech that falls outside the
    Zauderer framework is subject to strict scrutiny. See Merits
    Op. at 14-16. See also Disc. Tobacco City & Lottery, Inc. v.
    United States, 
    674 F.3d 509
    , 554 (6th Cir. 2012) (deciding
    between applying strict scrutiny or Zauderer to compelled
    commercial speech); Entm’t Software Ass’n v. Blagojevich,
    
    469 F.3d 641
    , 652 (7th Cir. 2006) (same). The government
    argues that we should view the graphic warnings as
    restrictions on commercial speech, which are analyzed under
    the less rigorous standard established by Central Hudson.
    Despite the contrary views of other circuits, our governing
    precedent makes clear that Central Hudson is the appropriate
    standard.
    This Court recently evaluated the constitutionality of
    compelled commercial speech in United States v. Philip
    Morris, where it reviewed a district court order requiring the
    defendant tobacco manufacturers to publish corrective
    statements on their websites, in newspapers, and on major
    television networks. 
    566 F.3d at 1142-43
    . This Court began
    by noting that “[b]ecause commercial speech receives a lower
    level of protection under the First Amendment, burdens
    imposed on it receive a lower level of scrutiny from the
    courts.” 
    Id.
     After acknowledging that “the standard for
    22
    assessing burdens on commercial speech has varied,” the
    Court concluded that “the Supreme Court’s bottom line is
    clear: the government must affirmatively demonstrate its
    means are narrowly tailored to achieve a substantial
    government goal.” 
    Id. at 1143
    . See also Novartis Corp., 
    223 F.3d at 789
     (evaluating a corrective remedy involving
    corrective statements under Central Hudson). Because this
    case also involves a compelled commercial disclosure, we
    follow the lead of Philip Morris and apply the intermediate
    standard set forth in Central Hudson.
    III. Evaluating   the         Graphic        Warnings        Under
    Intermediate Scrutiny
    Under Central Hudson, the government must first show
    that its asserted interest is “substantial.” 
    447 U.S. at 566
    .11 If
    so, the Court must determine “whether the regulation directly
    advances the governmental interest asserted, and whether it is
    not more extensive than is necessary to serve that interest.”
    
    Id.
     The party seeking to uphold a restriction on commercial
    speech bears the burden of justifying it. Edenfield v. Fane,
    
    507 U.S. 761
    , 770-71 (1993). Because this case involves a
    challenge to final agency action, the Administrative Procedure
    Act governs our review of the record. See 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)(B) (providing that the APA applies to allegations that
    agency action is “contrary to constitutional right, power,
    privilege, or immunity”). The APA requires us to “hold
    unlawful and set aside agency action, findings, and
    11
    Central Hudson also provides that commercial speech only
    receives First Amendment protection if it is a lawful activity and is
    not misleading or fraudulent. 
    447 U.S. at 566
    . Neither party
    seriously disputes that the cigarette packaging and advertisements
    regulated by the Act satisfy this threshold requirement.
    23
    conclusions found to be . . . unsupported by substantial
    evidence.” 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2).
    Unlike rational-basis review, the Central Hudson
    standard does not permit this Court to “supplant the precise
    interests put forward by [FDA] with other suppositions.”
    Edenfield, 
    507 U.S. at 768
    . We thus begin by identifying
    FDA’s asserted interests.
    A review of the statute and the administrative record
    makes clear that the graphic warnings are intended to
    encourage current smokers to quit and dissuade other
    consumers from ever buying cigarettes. One of the Act’s
    many stated purposes is “promot[ing] cessation to reduce
    disease risk and the social costs associated with tobacco-
    related diseases.” Act § 3.9. The only explicitly asserted
    interest in either the Proposed or Final Rule is an interest in
    reducing smoking rates. The Proposed Rule states in its
    preamble that the government has a “substantial interest in
    reducing the number of Americans, particularly children and
    adolescents, who use cigarettes and other tobacco products.”
    Proposed Rule at 69,525. And the preamble to the Final Rule
    reiterates the same interest. Final Rule at 36,629.12 Although
    12
    Moreover, the Institute of Medicine Report, on which FDA relies
    for some of its evidence supporting the Rule, states unequivocally
    that “the primary objective of tobacco regulation is not to promote
    informed choice but rather to discourage consumption of tobacco
    products . . . as a means of reducing tobacco-related death and
    disease.” Institute of Medicine, Ending the Tobacco Problem: A
    Blueprint for the Nation 291 (2007), available at
    http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11795.         The Report
    goes on to state that “[e]ven though tobacco products are legally
    available to adults, the paramount public health aim is to reduce the
    number of people who use and become addicted to these products,
    24
    counsel attempted to disclaim this interest at oral argument,
    the administrative record shows otherwise: the primary
    objective of the Rule was “both to discourage nonsmokers
    from initiating cigarette use and to encourage current smokers
    to consider quitting.” Id. at 36,630.
    Assuming FDA’s interest in reducing smoking rates is
    substantial,13 we next evaluate whether FDA has offered
    substantial evidence showing that the graphic warning
    requirements “directly advance[] the governmental interest
    asserted,” Cent. Hudson, 
    447 U.S. at 566
    , to a “material
    degree,” Fl. Bar v. Went For It, Inc., 
    515 U.S. 618
    , 626
    (1995). The government bears the burden of justifying its
    attempt to restrict commercial speech, Edenfield, 
    507 U.S. at 770
    , and its burden is not light. A restriction that “provides
    only ineffective or remote support for the government’s
    purposes,” 
    id. at 770
    , is not sufficient, and the government
    cannot satisfy its burden “by mere speculation or conjecture.”
    Rubin v. Coors Brewing Co., 
    514 U.S. 476
    , 487 (1995). The
    requirement that a restriction directly advance the asserted
    interest is “critical,” because without it, the government
    “could [interfere with] commercial speech in the service of
    other objectives that could not themselves justify a burden on
    commercial expression.” 
    Id.
    through a focus on children and youths,” and recommends that the
    “warnings must be designed to promote this objective.” 
    Id.
    13
    Like the district court, we are skeptical that the government can
    assert a substantial interest in discouraging consumers from
    purchasing a lawful product, even one that has been conclusively
    linked to adverse health consequences. Nonetheless, the Supreme
    Court has at least implied that the government could have a
    substantial interest in reducing smoking rates because smoking
    poses “perhaps the single most significant threat to public health in
    the United States.” FDA v. Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corp.,
    
    529 U.S. 120
    , 161 (2000).
    25
    FDA has not provided a shred of evidence—much less
    the “substantial evidence” required by the APA—showing
    that the graphic warnings will “directly advance” its interest
    in reducing the number of Americans who smoke. FDA
    makes much of the “international consensus” surrounding the
    effectiveness of large graphic warnings, but offers no
    evidence showing that such warnings have directly caused a
    material decrease in smoking rates in any of the countries that
    now require them. While studies of Canadian and Australian
    youth smokers showed that the warnings on cigarette packs
    caused a substantial number of survey participants to think—
    or think more—about quitting smoking, Proposed Rule at
    69,532, and FDA might be correct that intentions are a
    “necessary precursor” to behavior change, Final Rule at
    36,642, it is mere speculation to suggest that respondents who
    report increased thoughts about quitting smoking will actually
    follow through on their intentions. And at no point did these
    studies attempt to evaluate whether the increased thoughts
    about smoking cessation led participants to actually quit.
    Another Australian study reported increased quit attempts by
    survey participants after that country enacted large graphic
    warnings, but found “no association with short-term quit
    success.” Proposed Rule at 69,532. Some Canadian and
    Australian studies indicated that large graphic warnings might
    induce individual smokers to reduce consumption, or to help
    persons who have already quit smoking remain abstinent. See
    
    id.
     But again, the study did not purport to show that the
    implementation of large graphic warnings has actually led to
    a reduction in smoking rates.
    FDA’s reliance on this questionable social science is
    unsurprising when we consider the raw data regarding
    smoking rates in countries that have enacted graphic
    warnings. FDA claims that Canadian national survey data
    26
    suggest that graphic warnings may reduce smoking rates. But
    the strength of the evidence is underwhelming, making FDA’s
    claim somewhat misleading. In the year prior to the
    introduction of graphic warnings, the Canadian national
    survey showed that 24 percent of Canadians aged 15 or older
    smoked cigarettes. In 2001, the year the warnings were
    introduced, the national smoking rate dropped to 22 percent,
    and it further dropped to 21 percent in 2002. Id. at 69,532.
    But the raw numbers don’t tell the whole tale. FDA concedes
    it cannot directly attribute any decrease in the Canadian
    smoking rate to the graphic warnings because the Canadian
    government implemented other smoking control initiatives,
    including an increase in the cigarette tax and new restrictions
    on public smoking, during the same period. Id. Although
    FDA maintains the data “are suggestive” that large graphic
    warnings “may” reduce smoking consumption, id., it cannot
    satisfy its First Amendment burden with “mere speculation
    and conjecture.” Rubin, 
    514 U.S. at 487
    .
    FDA’s Regulatory Impact Analysis (“RIA”)14 essentially
    concedes the agency lacks any evidence showing that the
    graphic warnings are likely to reduce smoking rates. One
    way in which the RIA analyzed the expected benefits of the
    Rule was by comparing the impact of similar warnings
    introduced in Canada in 2000. See Final Rule at 36,719-20.
    It (1) analyzed the change in smoking trends in Canada before
    and after 2000; (2) assumed any difference in the post-2000
    change between Canada and the United States was solely
    attributable to the introduction of graphic warnings; and (3)
    14
    Such an analysis is required under Executive Order 12866, 
    58 Fed. Reg. 51,735
     (Sept. 30, 1993), which directs agencies to assess
    all costs and benefits of available regulatory alternatives and, when
    regulation is necessary, to select the approach that maximizes net
    benefits.
    27
    assumed similar warnings would have an identical impact on
    U.S. smoking rates. See id. at 36,755. Describing its
    approach as “rudimentary,” FDA acknowledged that apart
    from differences in cigarette taxes, the RIA “d[id] not account
    for potential confounding variables,” id. at 36,720-21, such as
    the introduction of more stringent smoking bans and
    advertising restrictions in Canada during the relevant time
    period, or the fact that Canadian cigarette prices are generally
    higher than U.S. prices. Plaintiffs’ Comment Letter on
    Proposed Rule (Jan. 11, 2010) and Statement of Robert S.
    Maness.
    Logic dictates that these procedural shortcuts would, if
    anything, lead to an overly optimistic prediction of the
    efficacy of the proposed graphic warnings. Not so. The RIA
    estimated the new warnings would reduce U.S. smoking rates
    by a mere 0.088%, Final Rule at 36,721, a number the FDA
    concedes is “in general not statistically distinguishable from
    zero.” Id. at 36,776. Indeed, because it had access to “very
    small data sets,” FDA could not even reject the statistical
    possibility that the Rule would have no impact on U.S.
    smoking rates. Id.
    FDA has thus presented us with only two studies that
    directly evaluate the impact of graphic warnings on actual
    smoking rates, and neither set of data shows that the graphic
    warnings will “directly” advance its interest in reducing
    smoking rates “to a material degree.” Rubin, 
    514 U.S. at 487
    .
    And one of the principal researchers on whom FDA relies
    recently surveyed the relevant literature and conceded that
    “[t]here is no way to attribute . . . declines [in smoking] to the
    new health warnings.” David Hammond, Health Warnings
    Messages on Tobacco Products: A Review, 20 Tobacco
    Control       327,      331         (2011),       available     at
    http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/20/5/327.full.pdf.        In
    28
    light of the number of foreign jurisdictions that have enacted
    large graphic warning labels, the dearth of data reflecting
    decreased smoking rates in these countries is somewhat
    surprising, and strongly implies that such warnings are not
    very effective at promoting cessation and discouraging
    initiation. While APA review of final agency action is
    deferential, it surely does not require us to accept a flawed
    interpretation of Canadian survey data or the agency’s own
    projected 0.088% decrease in the U.S. smoking rate as
    “substantial evidence” that its warnings will advance its stated
    interest.
    FDA attempts to downplay the significance of the RIA by
    explaining that it “must be included in all federal rulemaking
    to improve the internal management of the Federal
    Government,” and that it “was not intended to second-guess
    Congress’s judgment regarding the value of new health
    warnings.” Pet. Reply Br. at 15-16.15 FDA attempts to
    rehabilitate its findings by noting the analysis made only the
    “unremarkable point” that it is “difficult [to] determine with
    statistical precision the relative causal impact of the relevant
    contributing factors,” particularly given the very small data
    sets to which FDA had access. Id. at 16. But FDA cannot get
    around the First Amendment by pleading incompetence or
    15
    FDA also urges us to defer to Congress’s judgment regarding the
    efficacy of the graphic warnings. See Turner Broad. Sys., Inc. v.
    FCC, 
    520 U.S. 180
    , 196 (1997). But deference is only warranted
    where Congress “base[s] its conclusions upon substantial
    evidence,” 
    id.,
     and Congress’s predictive judgments are not
    “insulated from meaningful judicial review.” Turner, 
    512 U.S. at 666
    . Deference is not appropriate here, because we find little
    evidence showing that the graphic warnings will advance the stated
    purpose of the statute—“promot[ing] cessation to reduce disease
    risk and the social costs associated with tobacco-related diseases.”
    Act. § 3.9.
    29
    futility. Because FDA bears the burden of justifying its
    proposed restraint on speech, it cannot claim—rather
    perversely—that its own analysis was irrelevant because it
    lacked precision and was based on insufficient data. Central
    Hudson requires FDA to find and present data supporting its
    claims prior to imposing a burden on commercial speech.
    Alternatively, FDA asserts an interest in “effectively
    communicating health information” regarding the negative
    effects of cigarettes. Appellant’s Br. at 28. But as FDA
    concedes, this purported “interest” describes only the means
    by which FDA is attempting to reduce smoking rates: “[t]he
    goal of effectively communicating the risks of cigarette
    smoking is, of course, related to the viewer’s decision to quit,
    or never to start, smoking.” Id. at 47. The government’s
    attempt to reformulate its interest as purely informational is
    unconvincing, as an interest in “effective” communication is
    too vague to stand on its own. Indeed, the government’s
    chosen buzzwords, which it reiterates through the rulemaking,
    prompt an obvious question: “effective” in what sense?
    Allowing FDA to define “effectiveness” however it sees fit
    would not only render Central Hudson’s “substantial interest”
    requirement a complete nullity, but it would also eviscerate
    the requirement that any restriction “directly advance” that
    interest. See 
    447 U.S. at 566
    . In this case, both the statute
    and the Rule offer a barometer for assessing the effectiveness
    of the graphic warnings—the degree to which they encourage
    current smokers to quit and dissuade would-be smokers from
    taking up the habit. See Final Rule at 36,630, 36,707-08. As
    such, FDA’s interest in “effectively communicating” the
    health risks of smoking is merely a description of the means
    by which it plans to accomplish its goal of reducing smoking
    30
    rates, and not an independent interest capable of sustaining
    the Rule.16
    IV. Conclusion
    In the Proposed Rule, FDA lamented that their previous
    efforts to combat the tobacco companies’ advertising
    campaigns have been like bringing a butter knife to a gun
    fight. According to the FTC, tobacco companies spent
    approximately $12.49 billion on advertising and promotion in
    2006 alone, employing marketing and advertising experts to
    incorporate current trends and target their messages toward
    certain demographics. Proposed Rule at 69,531. The graphic
    warnings represent FDA’s attempt to level the playing field,
    not only by limiting the Companies’ ability to advertise, but
    also by forcing the Companies to bear the cost of
    disseminating an anti-smoking message. But as the Supreme
    Court recently reminded us, “[t]hat the [government] finds
    expression too persuasive does not permit it to quiet the
    speech or to burden its messengers.” Sorrell v. IMS Health
    Inc., 
    131 S. Ct. 2653
    , 2671 (2011). The First Amendment
    requires the government not only to state a substantial interest
    justifying a regulation on commercial speech, but also to
    show that its regulation directly advances that goal. FDA
    failed to present any data—much less the substantial evidence
    required under the APA—showing that enacting their
    proposed graphic warnings will accomplish the agency’s
    stated objective of reducing smoking rates. The Rule thus
    cannot pass muster under Central Hudson.
    16
    The dissent accuses us of “choosing to ignore” this interest,
    thereby ignoring our explanation that the government’s stated
    interest in “effectively” communicating information is illusory
    absent some barometer for assessing that effectiveness.
    31
    The APA directs that we “shall . . . set aside [the] agency
    action . . . found to be contrary to constitutional right.” 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2). We therefore vacate the graphic warning
    requirements and remand to the agency. In so doing, we also
    vacate the permanent injunction issued by the district court, in
    furtherance of our obligation to “set aside” the unlawful
    regulation. See, e.g., N. Air Cargo v. United States Postal
    Serv., 
    674 F.3d 852
    , 861 (D.C. Cir. 2012) (“It was quite
    anomalous [for the district court] to issue an injunction.
    When a district court reverses agency action and determines
    that the agency acted unlawfully, ordinarily the appropriate
    course is to identify a legal error and then remand to the
    agency, because the role of the district court in such situations
    is to act as an appellate tribunal.”).
    ROGERS, Circuit Judge, dissenting: The threshold question
    in this government appeal is whether the district court applied
    the correct level of scrutiny in addressing the tobacco
    companies’ First Amendment challenge to the requirement that
    they disclose the negative health consequences of smoking on
    cigarette packages and other advertisements.1 The speech at
    issue — proposing the sale of cigarettes — is indisputably
    commercial speech. Consequently, contrary to the district
    court’s application of strict scrutiny, the question is whether,
    under the traditional standards adopted by the Supreme Court,
    the government’s warning label requirement is subject to the
    “less exacting scrutiny” of Zauderer v. Office of Disciplinary
    Council of the Supreme Court of Ohio, 
    471 U.S. 626
    , 650–51
    (1985), or to intermediate scrutiny under Central Hudson Gas
    & Electric Corp. v. Public Service Commission of New York,
    
    447 U.S. 557
    , 566 (1980). In affirming the grant of summary
    judgment to the tobacco companies, the court applies the wrong
    level of scrutiny, disregarding the tobacco companies’ history of
    deceptive advertising and the government’s stated “primary
    goal, which is to effectively convey the negative health
    consequences of smoking on cigarette packages and in
    advertisements,” Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and
    Advertisements, 
    76 Fed. Reg. 36,628
    , 36,633 (June 22, 2011)
    (“Final Rule”).
    Because the warning labels present factually accurate
    information and address misleading commercial speech, as
    1
    In the district court, the tobacco companies sought
    injunctive relief and challenged the label warning requirement under
    the First Amendment and the Administrative Procedure Act (“APA”).
    The district court granted injunctive relief and summary judgment
    upon applying strict scrutiny and ruling that the warning label
    requirement violated the First Amendment. The district court did not
    reach the APA claims. See R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. v. FDA, 
    2012 WL 653828
     (D.D.C. 2012).
    2
    defined in Supreme Court precedent, Zauderer scrutiny applies,
    and the government need show only that the warning label
    requirement is reasonably related to its stated and substantial
    interest in effectively conveying this information to consumers.
    See Milavetz, Gallop & Milavetz, P.A. v. United States, 
    130 S. Ct. 1324
    , 1339–40 (2010); Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at
    650–51; Spirit
    Airlines, Inc. v. U.S. Dep’t of Transp., No. 11-1219, slip op. at
    11 (D.C. Cir. July 24, 2012). Even treating Zauderer’s “less
    exacting scrutiny” as limited to disclosure requirements serving
    a governmental interest in preventing consumer deception, the
    voluminous findings of our own courts, cited and supplemented
    by Congress in the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco
    Control Act (“Tobacco Control Act” or “Act”), Pub. L. No.
    111-31, 
    123 Stat. 1776
     (2009), and the Federal Drug
    Administration (“FDA”) in the Final Rule, are more than
    adequate to substantiate that interest.
    Regardless of which level of scrutiny applies, the court errs
    in failing to examine both of the government’s stated interests.
    In the rulemaking, the FDA articulated complementary, but
    distinct, interests in effectively conveying information about the
    negative health consequences of smoking to consumers and in
    decreasing smoking rates. See, e.g., Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    36,633. The court dismisses the former interest as “too vague,”
    Maj. Op. at 29, thereby sidestepping much of the substantial
    evidence supporting the warning label requirement. Yet this
    court has “recognize[d] that the government’s interest in
    preventing consumer fraud/confusion may well take on added
    importance in the context of a product . . . that can affect the
    public’s health.” Pearson v. Shalala, 
    164 F.3d 650
    , 656 (D.C.
    Cir. 1999). Tobacco products necessarily affect the public
    health, and to a significant degree. Unlike other consumer
    products, “tobacco products are ‘dangerous to health’ when used
    in the manner prescribed.” FDA v. Brown & Williamson
    Tobacco Corp., 
    529 U.S. 120
    , 135 (2000). They are also highly
    3
    addictive. Consequently, “tobacco use, particularly among
    children and adolescents, poses perhaps the single most
    significant threat to public health in the United States.” 
    Id. at 161
    . Thus, the government’s informational interest “take[s] on
    added importance,” Pearson, 164 F.3d at 656, and merits
    independent consideration. Upon consideration of this interest,
    the government appears to have met its burden under Central
    Hudson as well as Zauderer, except with regard to the additional
    inclusion of the “1-800-QUIT-NOW” number in each label.
    Accordingly, because the district court erred in applying
    strict scrutiny to the commercial disclosures at issue, and
    because those disclosures, except as discussed below, appear to
    survive either level of scrutiny under traditional commercial
    speech precedent, I would reverse the grant of summary
    judgment, and I respectfully dissent.
    I.
    The context of the challenged warning label requirement
    can be summarized briefly. First, it is beyond dispute that the
    textual statements in the warning labels required under the
    Tobacco Control Act convey factually accurate information.
    Tobacco use is the leading preventable cause of death in the
    United States. It causes or contributes to at least sixteen kinds
    of cancer, as well as heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic
    bronchitis, and emphysema, thereby “kill[ing] more than
    400,000 Americans every year — more deaths than from AIDS,
    alcohol, car accidents, murders, suicides, drugs, and fires,
    combined.” President’s Cancer Panel, Promoting Healthy
    Lifestyles 61 (2007) (hereinafter “PCP Report”); see id. at
    61–62. The nicotine contained in tobacco is “one of the most
    addictive substances used by humans.” Institute of Medicine,
    Ending the Tobacco Problem: A Blueprint for the Nation 5
    (2007) (hereinafter “IOM Report”). Despite increasing public
    4
    awareness that smoking is dangerous to one’s health, most
    people still lack “a complete understanding of the many serious
    diseases caused by smoking, the true nature of addiction, or
    what it would be like to experience either those diseases or
    addiction itself.” United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., 
    449 F. Supp. 2d 1
    , 578 (D.D.C. 2006). Adolescents in particular
    tend “to underestimate or be uninformed about the difficulty of
    stopping smoking,” IOM Report at E-8; as a result, “they are
    less likely to believe that the risk of addiction and related health
    consequences apply to them,” 
    id.
     at E-13. Over eighty percent
    of adult smokers became addicted to tobacco at or below the age
    of eighteen; of these smokers, half will die prematurely from a
    tobacco-related disease. PCP Report at 64. In view of these
    facts, the Supreme Court has recognized that “tobacco use,
    particularly among children and adolescents, poses perhaps the
    single most significant threat to public health in the United
    States.” Brown & Williamson, 
    529 U.S. at 161
    .
    Second, it is also beyond dispute that the tobacco
    companies have engaged in a decades-long campaign to deceive
    consumers about these facts. Despite knowledge of “the
    negative health consequences of smoking, the addictiveness and
    manipulation of nicotine, [and] the harmfulness of secondhand
    smoke,” tobacco company executives “made, caused to be
    made, and approved public statements contrary to this
    knowledge.” United States v. Philip Morris USA Inc., 
    566 F.3d 1095
    , 1121 (D.C. Cir. 2009). Specifically, they “publicly denied
    and distorted the truth about the addictive nature of their
    products, suppressed research revealing the addictiveness of
    nicotine, and denied their efforts to control nicotine levels and
    delivery,” all while “engineer[ing] their products around
    creating and sustaining [nicotine] addiction.” 
    Id. at 1107
    . The
    tobacco company executives “knew of the[] falsity” of their
    statements “at the time” and “made the statements with the
    intent to deceive.” 
    Id. at 1124
    .
    5
    Beginning in 1965, the government undertook to warn
    consumers of the health risks associated with smoking by
    requiring the inclusion of a health warning on the side of
    cigarette packages. See Federal Cigarette Labeling and
    Advertising Act of 1965, Pub. L. No. 89-92, 
    79 Stat. 282
     (1965).
    Congress last revised the content and format of these warning
    labels in 1984. See Comprehensive Smoking Education Act of
    1984, Pub. L. No. 98-474, 
    98 Stat. 2200
     (1984). Since then,
    “evidence regarding the ineffectiveness of the prescribed
    warnings has continued to accumulate,” supporting the
    conclusion that these warnings “are unnoticed and stale, and
    they fail to convey relevant information in an effective way.”
    IOM Report at 291.
    In view of this background, in 2009 Congress enacted the
    Tobacco Control Act. Congress found that “[a] consensus exists
    within the scientific and medical communities that tobacco
    products are inherently dangerous and cause cancer, heart
    disease, and other serious adverse health effects,” and that
    “[n]icotine is an addictive drug.” Tobacco Control Act § 2(2),
    (3), 123 Stat. at 1777 (codified at 
    21 U.S.C. § 387
     Note (2011)).
    Additionally, Congress found that in 2005 the tobacco
    companies “spent more than $13 [billion] to attract new users,
    retain current users, increase current consumption, and generate
    favorable long-term attitudes toward smoking and tobacco use,”
    
    id.
     § 2(16), “often misleadingly portray[ing] the use of tobacco
    as socially acceptable and healthful to minors,” id. § 2(17).
    Based on these and other findings, Congress required, as
    relevant, the rotating display of one of nine textual warnings,2
    2
    “WARNING” precedes each of the textual statements,
    which consist of the following: “Cigarettes are addictive”; “Tobacco
    smoke can harm your children”; “Cigarettes cause fatal lung disease”;
    “Cigarettes cause cancer”; “Cigarettes cause strokes and heart
    disease”; “Smoking during pregnancy can harm your baby”;
    6
    accompanied by “color graphics depicting the negative health
    consequences of smoking” to be selected by the Secretary of
    Health and Human Services, on cigarette packages and other
    advertisements. Tobacco Control Act § 201(a), 123 Stat. at
    1842–45 (codified at 
    15 U.S.C. § 1333
     Note (2011)) (hereinafter
    “Section 201”). These requirements become effective fifteen
    months from the issuance of the implementing regulations. See
    
    id.
     § 201(b).
    In the Final Rule, the FDA, acting on behalf of the
    Secretary,3 stated that its “primary goal” in selecting the graphic
    images pursuant to Section 201 was “to effectively convey the
    negative health consequences of smoking on cigarette packages
    and in advertisements.” Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,633; see
    also id. at 36,641. The FDA also explained that “this effective
    communication can help both to discourage nonsmokers,
    including minor children, from initiating cigarette use and to
    encourage current smokers to consider cessation to greatly
    reduce the serious risks that smoking poses to their health.” See
    id.; see also id. at 36,640. In selecting nine of the thirty-six
    graphic images presented in the proposed rule, see Required
    Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements, 
    75 Fed. Reg. 69,524
     (proposed Nov. 12, 2010) (“Proposed Rule”), the
    FDA relied on the results of a consumer study conducted, in
    part, “to quantitatively evaluate the [relative] efficacy of the
    “Smoking can kill you”; and “Tobacco smoke causes fatal lung
    disease in nonsmokers.” Tobacco Control Act § 201, 
    15 U.S.C. § 1333
     Note.
    3
    Congress contemplated that the selection of the graphic
    images would be made by the FDA in view of its “scientific expertise
    . . . to evaluate the impact of labels, labeling, and advertising on
    consumer behavior in order to reduce the risk of harm and promote
    understanding of the impact of the product on health.” Tobacco
    Control Act § 2(44), 
    21 U.S.C. § 387
     Note.
    7
    proposed required warnings in communicating the health harms
    of smoking to adults . . . , young adults . . . , and youth” (“FDA
    study”). Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,635; see id. at
    36,637–39. In particular, the FDA focused on the salience
    measures reported for each of the thirty-six graphic images
    considered in the study; these measures included “[e]motional
    reactions, cognitive reactions, and [reactions as to] whether the
    warning was difficult to look at.” Id. at 36,696. Echoing the
    Institute of Medicine in justifying its reliance on these measures,
    the use of which “is well-established in the scientific literature,”
    id. at 36,696–97, the FDA explained that “the literature suggests
    that risk information is most readily communicated by messages
    that arouse emotional reactions, and that smokers who report
    greater negative emotional reactions in response to cigarette
    warnings are significantly more likely to have read and thought
    about the warnings . . . .” Id. at 36,639; see IOM Report at C-3.
    After considering the results of the FDA study “and a number of
    other factors,” the FDA “concluded that the nine selected
    required warnings effectively communicate the negative health
    consequences of smoking.” Id. at 36,637.
    II.
    “Because the degree of protection afforded by the First
    Amendment depends on whether the activity sought to be
    regulated constitutes commercial or noncommercial speech, we
    must first determine the proper classification of the [speech] at
    issue here.” Bolger v. Youngs Drug Prods. Corp., 
    463 U.S. 60
    ,
    65 (1983) (emphasis added). Recognizing “the ‘commonsense’
    distinction between speech proposing a commercial transaction,
    which occurs in an area traditionally subject to government
    regulation, and other varieties of speech,” the Supreme Court
    has repeatedly instructed that the “Constitution . . . accords a
    lesser protection to commercial speech than to other
    constitutionally guaranteed expression,” Central Hudson, 447
    8
    U.S. at 562–63 (citations and internal quotation marks omitted).4
    The Court has reasserted this “commonsense” distinction in the
    context of compelled speech, differentiating between attempts
    to “prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism,
    religion, or other matters of opinion or force citizens to confess
    by word or act their faith therein” and attempts “only to
    prescribe what shall be orthodox in commercial advertising.”
    Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
     (citations and internal quotation
    marks omitted).5
    4
    Notwithstanding any intimations it may have made in cases
    such as Sorrell v. IMS Health Inc., 
    131 S. Ct. 2653
     (2011), the
    Supreme Court has continued to apply the more deferential framework
    of Central Hudson to commercial speech restrictions. See 
    id.
     at
    2667–68, 72. As the court acknowledges, see Maj. Op. at 21–22, it
    therefore remains incumbent on this court to distinguish between
    commercial and noncommercial speech for purposes of determining
    the degree of protection afforded tobacco companies’ speech under the
    First Amendment and, consequently, the level of scrutiny to apply.
    See Philip Morris, 
    566 F.3d at
    1142–43. In any event, the Supreme
    Court’s rationale in Sorrell — that “the ‘fear that people would make
    bad decisions if given truthful information’ cannot justify content-
    based burdens on speech,” Sorrell, 
    131 S. Ct. at
    2670–71 (quoting
    Thompson v. W. States Med. Ctr., 
    535 U.S. 357
    , 374 (2002)) — does
    not apply here, where it is the tobacco companies that seek to suppress
    truthful information.
    5
    The tobacco companies advance no argument that their
    cigarette packaging and advertisements propose anything other than
    a commercial transaction. Nor could they, in part because of this
    court’s determination that tobacco companies’ attempts to persuade
    the public to purchase cigarettes, even in formats that did not
    explicitly propose a commercial transaction, constituted commercial
    speech. See Philip Morris, 
    566 F.3d at
    1143–44. Instead, the tobacco
    companies maintain that the character of the warning labels
    themselves triggers the application of strict scrutiny. See Appellees’
    Br. at 35–36. Turning the premise of the Supreme Court’s holding in
    9
    Indeed, in view of “material differences between disclosure
    requirements and outright prohibitions on speech,” id. at 650,
    the Supreme Court has taken this distinction a step further.
    Whereas in the context of noncommercial speech, “compulsion
    to speak may be as violative of the First Amendment as
    prohibitions on speech” and thus trigger the same level of
    scrutiny, id., in the context of commercial speech, compulsion
    to speak may be less violative of the First Amendment than
    prohibitions on speech and thus trigger a lower level of scrutiny,
    see id. at 650–51. “Because the extension of First Amendment
    protection to commercial speech is justified principally by the
    value to consumers of the information such speech provides,”
    the Court explained, “disclosure requirements trench much more
    narrowly on an advertiser’s interests than do flat prohibitions on
    speech . . . .” Id. at 651 (citations omitted); see id. at 651 n.14;
    Va. Bd. of Pharmacy v. Va. Citizens Consumer Council, Inc.,
    
    425 U.S. 748
    , 770 (1976). Consequently, while “unjustified or
    unduly burdensome disclosure requirements might offend the
    First Amendment by chilling protected commercial speech[,]
    . . . an advertiser’s rights are adequately protected as long as
    Zauderer on its head, they assert that “attempts to regulate ‘what shall
    be orthodox in . . . matters of opinion’ — i.e., whether individuals
    should buy and use a lawful product — must be subject to strict
    scrutiny.” Appellees’ Br. at 31 (quoting Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    ).
    To the contrary, because matters of opinion over whether individuals
    should buy and use a lawful product fall squarely within the domain
    of commercial advertising recognized by the Supreme Court, the
    regulation thereof is not, as the district court ruled, subject to strict
    scrutiny. See Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    ; Central Hudson, 
    447 U.S. at 562
    ; Philip Morris, 
    566 F.3d at
    1142–44. For this reason, the court’s
    invocation of noncommercial compelled speech cases like Wooley v.
    Maynard, 
    430 U.S. 705
     (1977), West Virginia State Board of
    Education v. Barnette, 
    319 U.S. 624
     (1943), and Pacific Gas &
    Electric Co. v. Public Utilities Commission of California, 
    475 U.S. 1
    (1986), see Maj. Op. at 9–10, is unavailing.
    10
    disclosure requirements are reasonably related to the State’s
    interest in preventing deception of consumers.” Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    ; see Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at
    1339–40.6
    As the Supreme Court explained in Milavetz, where the
    challenged requirements are “directed at misleading commercial
    speech,” and where they “impose a disclosure requirement
    rather than an affirmative limitation on speech, . . . the less
    exacting scrutiny described in Zauderer governs [a court’s]
    review.” 
    130 S. Ct. at 1339
    ; see Spirit Airlines, No. 11-1219,
    slip op. at 11. The warning label requirement meets both of
    these criteria.
    First, the government need show only that the targeted
    commercial speech presents the “possibility of deception” or a
    “tendency to mislead.” Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1340
     (citation
    and internal quotation marks omitted). If the speech is actually
    misleading, it enjoys no First Amendment protection. See
    Thompson v. W. States Med. Ctr., 
    535 U.S. 357
    , 367 (2002);
    Central Hudson, 
    447 U.S. at 566
    . Where “the likelihood of
    deception” is “hardly a speculative one,” the government need
    not produce “evidence that [the] advertisements are misleading,”
    6
    As other circuits have recognized, in Zauderer the Supreme
    Court appears simply to have held that a government interest in
    protecting consumers from possible deception is sufficient to support
    a disclosure requirement — not that this particular interest is necessary
    to support such a requirement. See Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at
    650–51;
    Discount Tobacco City & Lottery v. United States, 
    674 F.3d 509
    , 556
    (6th Cir. 2012); N.Y. State Rest. Ass’n v. N.Y. City Bd. of Health, 
    556 F.3d 114
    , 133 & n.21 (2d Cir. 2009); Pharm. Care Mgmt. Ass’n v.
    Rowe, 
    429 F.3d 294
    , 310 n.8 (1st Cir. 2005); Nat’l Elec. Mfrs. Ass’n
    v. Sorrell, 
    272 F.3d 104
    , 115 (2d Cir. 2001). In view of the likelihood
    of consumer confusion or deception shown here, there is no need to
    determine whether the scope of Zauderer encompasses other
    government interests.
    11
    as the court may rely instead on experience and common sense.
    Spirit Airlines, slip. op. at 13 (alteration in original) (quoting
    Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1340
    ) (internal quotation marks omitted).
    In Milavetz, the Supreme Court concluded that a law firm’s
    advertisements were “inherently misleading” because they
    “promise[d] . . . debt relief without any reference to the
    possibility of filing for bankruptcy, which has inherent costs.”
    Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1340
    . Thus, absent any additional
    evidence, the Court considered the omission of a reference to a
    possible outcome with “inherent costs” to be sufficiently
    misleading as to warrant review under Zauderer. Even
    advertisements that display all the costs of a service may remain
    misleading. In Spirit Airlines, this court addressed a Department
    of Transportation (“DOT”) rule requiring that the most
    prominent number displayed in airfare advertisements be the
    total price, inclusive of taxes. Spirit Airlines, slip. op. at 4.
    Notwithstanding the airlines’ compliance with preexisting
    regulations requiring advertisements to display the entire ticket
    cost as well as the amount of any tax, the court accepted DOT’s
    determination, based on common sense and experience, “that it
    was deceitful and misleading when the most prominent price
    listed by an airline is anything other than the total, final price of
    air travel.” Id. at 13. Accordingly, the court proceeded to
    review the rule under Zauderer. See id. at 14.
    Even absent any affirmatively misleading statements, see
    Maj. Op. at 16, cigarette packages and other advertisements that
    fail to display the final costs of smoking in a prominent manner
    are at least as misleading as the airline advertisements in Spirit
    Airlines. Existing warnings, last revised in 1984, appear on one
    side panel and occupy only four percent of cigarette packages.
    See Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,678. Common sense,
    experience, and substantial scientific evidence support the
    conclusion that these warnings are ineffective. “For example,”
    in 2007 the Institute of Medicine “concluded that U.S. package
    12
    warnings are both ‘unnoticed and stale.’” Proposed Rule, 75
    Reg. at 69,530 (quoting IOM Report at 291); see generally id.
    The government has thus provided more than sufficient evidence
    that cigarette packages and other advertisements remain likely
    to mislead consumers notwithstanding the existing warnings.
    See Discount Tobacco City & Lottery v. United States, 
    674 F.3d 509
    , 562–63 (6th Cir. 2012). Yet it goes even further,
    demonstrating that these warnings actually “have failed to
    convey appropriately crucial information such as the nature and
    extent of the health risks associated with smoking cigarettes.”
    Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,632; see Proposed Rule, 75 Fed.
    Reg. at 69,530–31 (citing studies); see also Discount Tobacco,
    
    674 F.3d at
    563–64. Even though “most smokers understand
    that smoking poses certain statistical risks to their health,”
    studies noted by the FDA show that “many fail to appreciate the
    severity and magnitude of those risks.” Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 36,632. Moreover, “many smokers underestimate their
    personal risks.” Id. (noting, for example, studies in which only
    a minority of smokers believed they were at increased risk for
    cancer and heart disease). Many people are also unaware of the
    effects of secondhand smoke on others. See id. at 36,633. And
    adolescents in particular fail to appreciate the highly addictive
    nature of cigarettes. See id.; see also Philip Morris, 
    449 F. Supp. 2d at 578
    .
    Furthermore, even if (contrary to Supreme Court and this
    court’s precedent) these findings were inadequate to establish a
    “tendency to mislead,” this court has recognized that certain
    advertisements, “although not misleading if taken alone,” can
    “become[] misleading” when “considered in light of past
    advertisements.” Warner-Lambert Co. v. FTC, 
    562 F.2d 749
    ,
    760 (D.C. Cir. 1977); see id. at n.57.7 In other words, a
    7
    The court attempts to distinguish Warner-Lambert on the
    ground that the FDA “does not frame this rule as a remedial measure
    13
    “tendency to mislead” may arise through efforts to “capitalize
    on . . . prior deceptions by continuing to advertise in a manner
    that builds on consumers’ existing misperceptions.” Philip
    Morris, 
    566 F.3d at
    1144–45 (citing Warner-Lambert, 
    562 F.2d at 769
    ). This court has already acknowledged the tendency of
    cigarette marketing to mislead consumers based on the
    companies’ decades of deception regarding each of the risks
    identified in the warning labels. See Philip Morris, 
    566 F.3d at 1144
    ; supra Part I.8 Consistent with that decision, Congress
    found that “[t]obacco product advertising often misleadingly
    portrays the use of tobacco as socially acceptable and healthful
    to minors.” Tobacco Control Act § 2(17), 
    21 U.S.C. § 387
    Note. These findings are more than “adequate to establish that
    designed to counteract specific deceptive claims made by the
    Companies.” Maj. Op. at 18. Even if Warner-Lambert’s reasoning
    were limited to remedial measures, surely Congress could provide the
    requisite “framing.” Especially in view of the high level of specificity
    with which Congress crafted the warning label requirement, it was not
    incumbent upon the FDA to supplement the congressional findings
    already supporting the requirement. Nonetheless, the FDA did frame
    its rule as a measure designed to counteract specific gaps in
    consumers’ knowledge of the health risks of smoking, see Final Rule,
    76 Fed. Reg. at 36,632–33 — gaps that align with specific deceptive
    claims made by the tobacco companies, see Philip Morris, 
    566 F.3d at
    1106–07, 1118–19.
    8
    Indeed, in addressing a RICO injunction, this court recently
    acknowledged the “reasonable likelihood” — notwithstanding the
    restrictions imposed in the Tobacco Control Act — that the tobacco
    companies would commit future RICO violations, United States v.
    Philip Morris USA Inc., No. 11-5145, slip op. at 9 (D.C. Cir. July 27,
    2012), where their past RICO violations consisted of proven
    “misstatements and acts of concealment and deception . . . made
    intentionally and deliberately . . . as part of a multi-faceted,
    sophisticated scheme to defraud,” id. at 3; see United States v. Philip
    Morris USA, Inc., 
    787 F. Supp. 2d 68
    , 74–75 (D.D.C. 2011).
    14
    the likelihood of deception in this case ‘is hardly a speculative
    one.’” Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1340
    ; see Discount Tobacco, 
    674 F.3d at 562
    .
    Second, the warning label requirement does not impose “an
    affirmative limitation on speech,” Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1339
    ;
    rather, the warning labels disclose information about the
    negative health consequences of smoking. (The one exception
    is discussed infra.) Unlike other provisions of the Tobacco
    Control Act, Section 201 does not restrict the information
    conveyed to consumers, but requires additional information to
    be conveyed with the aid of graphic images. Although the
    tobacco companies object that the warnings “monopolize all the
    prominent space on cigarette packages, and thereby make it
    impossible for manufacturers to communicate their own
    messages and their own viewpoints prominently in packaging,”
    Joint Comments of R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., Lorillard
    Tobacco Co. & Commonwealth Brands, Inc. 9 (Jan. 11, 2010)
    (J.A. 216) (emphasis added), their objection rings hollow in the
    absence of any evidence of difficulty in conveying their desired
    messages notwithstanding a decade of experience under a
    similar warning label requirement in Canada. See Final Rule, 76
    Fed. Reg. at 36,633, 36,698; Appellants’ Br. at Add. 6–12; cf.
    Ibanez v. Fla. Dep’t Bus. & Prof’l Regulation, 
    512 U.S. 136
    ,
    146–47 (1994). Consequently, they fail to show that the
    warning label requirement is “an affirmative limitation on
    speech.” Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1339
    ; see Spirit Airlines, No.
    11-1219, slip op. at 14. To the extent the warning labels
    disclose factually accurate information about the cigarettes
    being advertised, then, Zauderer offers the appropriate level of
    scrutiny.
    The tobacco companies do not challenge the factual
    accuracy of the textual statements included in the warning
    labels. See Appellees’ Br. at 54–55. Nor could they reasonably
    15
    do so, given the scientific consensus “that tobacco products are
    inherently dangerous and cause cancer, heart disease, and other
    serious adverse health effects.” Tobacco Control Act § 2(2), 
    21 U.S.C. § 387
     Note; see Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,641;
    Proposed Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 69,527–29. The question for
    purposes of the First Amendment analysis, then, is whether the
    graphic images selected by the FDA to accompany the factually
    accurate textual statements render the warnings nonfactual or
    controversial. To answer this question, the court must —
    although the court does not, see Maj. Op. at 19–20 — view the
    images in connection with the textual warnings they accompany.
    See, e.g., S. Air Transp., Inc. v. Am. Broad. Cos., Inc., 
    877 F.2d 1010
    , 1015 (D.C. Cir. 1989).
    Contrary to the tobacco companies’ suggestion, see
    Appellees’ Br. at 24, the use of graphic images, even if digitally
    enhanced, illustrated, or symbolic, does not necessarily make the
    warnings nonfactual. The Supreme Court recognized in
    Zauderer that “[t]he use of illustrations or pictures in
    advertisements serves important communicative functions: it
    attracts the attention of the audience to the advertiser’s message,
    and it may also serve to impart information directly.” Zauderer,
    
    471 U.S. at 647
    ; see N.Y. Times Co. v. NASA, 
    920 F.2d 1002
    ,
    1005 (D.C. Cir. 1990); see, e.g., 
    16 C.F.R. § 1500.14
     (2011)
    (requiring skull-and-crossbones warnings on poisonous
    products). In the Final Rule, the FDA concluded that “the
    effects shown” in the images “are, in fact, accurate depictions of
    the effects of sickness and disease caused by smoking,” Final
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,696, and the tobacco companies do not
    suggest otherwise. That such images are not invariably
    comforting to look at does not necessarily make them
    inaccurate. As the FDA went on to explain the obvious fact,
    “the severe, life-threatening and sometimes disfiguring health
    effects of smoking conveyed in the required warnings are
    16
    disturbing and the images [it] . . . selected appropriately reflect
    this fact.” Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,696.
    The tobacco companies further object that the graphic
    images were chosen not to convey information, but to evoke
    negative emotions and thereby discourage smoking. See
    Appellees’ Br. at 26–27. The FDA explained, however, that
    “considerable scientific evidence shows that health warnings
    that elicit strong emotional and cognitive reactions,” as reflected
    in their salience measures, “are better processed and more
    effectively communicate information about the negative health
    consequences of smoking.” Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,642;
    see id. at 36,639, 41, 46; IOM Report at C-3. Thus, the FDA’s
    reliance on salience measures was in the service of — not
    inconsistent with — the warnings’ informational purpose.
    Moreover, factually accurate, emotive, and persuasive are not
    mutually exclusive descriptions; the emotive quality of the
    selected images does not necessarily undermine the warnings’
    factual accuracy.9 Comprehending the facts about the actual
    9
    The district court relied on Entertainment Software
    Association v. Blagojevich, 
    469 F.3d 641
     (7th Cir. 2006), for the
    proposition that label requirements “ultimately communicat[ing] a
    subjective and highly controversial message” fall outside the scope of
    “purely factual and uncontroversial” disclosures permitted under
    Zauderer. R.J. Reynolds, 
    2012 WL 653828
     at *6 (quoting
    Blagojevich, 
    469 F.3d at 652
    ) (internal quotation marks omitted). But
    Blagojevich involved labels that were necessarily subjective and
    exclusively nonfactual. As the Supreme Court later explained,
    because video games “communicate ideas — and even social
    messages,” they enjoy full First Amendment protection, which guards
    against government efforts “to restrict expression because of its
    message, its ideas, its subject matter, or its content.” Brown v. Entm’t
    Merchs. Ass’n, 
    131 S. Ct. 2729
    , 2733 (2011) (citation and internal
    quotation marks omitted). The labels at issue in Blagojevich
    represented exactly such an effort: the challenged provision required
    17
    harms resulting from smoking is likely to provoke emotional
    reactions and also to discourage the use of cigarettes. See Final
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,647. The tobacco companies’ argument
    leads to the counterintuitive conclusion that the more concerning
    the negative health effects of a particular product, the more
    constrained the government is in mandating disclosures of those
    facts. Unsurprisingly, the tobacco companies point neither to
    any case law in support of this argument nor to any legally
    significant distinction between fact and emotion. See Appellees’
    Br. at 24–25. Rather, the greater the harms to public health, the
    greater the government’s interest in informing consumers of
    those harms. See Pearson, 164 F.3d at 656. This interest is
    especially great in view of the tobacco companies’ extensive
    advertising that Congress found was “often misleading[]” and
    designed to attract adolescents and new users, retain and expand
    consumption, and “generate favorable long-term attitudes
    toward smoking and tobacco use.” Tobacco Control Act
    § 2(16)–(18), 
    21 U.S.C. § 387
     Note.
    Aside from their general objections to the inclusion of
    graphic images for the above reasons, the tobacco companies
    specifically object to five of the nine selected images. They
    maintain that the images of a man smoking through a
    tracheotomy hole in his throat and a man with chest staples on
    an autopsy table convey misleading messages about the
    consequences of smoking, and that the images of a man wearing
    a t-shirt reading “I QUIT,” a baby enveloped in smoke, and a
    woman crying convey no information about the consequences
    of smoking whatsoever. See Appellees’ Br. at 25–26. All of
    the label to be placed on games deemed “sexually explicit,” the state’s
    definition of which was “far more opinion-based than the question of
    whether a particular chemical is within any given product.”
    Blagojevich, 
    469 F.3d at 652
    . These labels were nonfactual because
    there were no facts to convey.
    18
    these objections pertain to the images divorced from their
    accompanying text and thus fail to address the relevant question
    — whether the images render the overall message conveyed by
    the warning labels nonfactual. Viewed with the text they
    accompany, none of these images has that effect.
    The image accompanying the textual warning “Cigarettes
    are addictive” depicts a man smoking through a tracheotomy
    opening in his throat. Viewed with the accompanying text, this
    image conveys the tenacity of nicotine addiction: even after
    under undergoing surgery for cancer, one might be unable to
    abstain from smoking. Indeed, government counsel represented
    that this situation is not so extreme or unusual as the court and
    the tobacco companies suggest. Compare Oral Arg. Tr. at 57
    (stating that fifty percent of neck and head cancer patients
    continue to smoke) with Maj. Op. at 20; Appellees’ Br. at 25.
    This representation finds support from the President’s Cancer
    Panel. “Smoking among cancer survivors (including individuals
    diagnosed with, being treated for, and surviving cancer),” the
    Panel reported, “is an underappreciated and understudied
    problem.” PCP Report at 70. “[S]moking prevalence in this
    population is approximately equivalent to people with no history
    of cancer,” despite “mounting evidence confirm[ing] the adverse
    effects of continued smoking on cancer treatment outcomes
    regardless of treatment modality.” Id.10 This image thus serves
    to underline the factual, and now uncontroversial, statement that
    cigarettes are highly addictive.
    10
    See also 155 CONG. REC. S6021 (daily ed. June 3, 2009)
    (statement of Sen. Lautenberg) (sharing testimony of woman who,
    “despite the fact that she had essentially lost her voice box, . . . still
    smoked through the hole in her throat,” and explaining that “[t]he hold
    on people is almost unbreakable”).
    19
    Similarly, the image of a man with staples in his chest lying
    on an autopsy table works with, not against, the textual warning
    “Smoking can kill you.” Assuming “autopsies are not a
    common consequence of smoking,” Appellees’ Br. at 25, neither
    are coffins or gravestones; yet the status evoked by images of an
    autopsy-scarred man, a coffin, or a gravestone — death — is a
    common consequence of smoking. See Proposed Rule, 75 Fed.
    Reg. at 69,526; PCP Report at 61, 64. The FDA might have
    opted for an image of a decaying cadaver or of a pile of ashes to
    portray the likely physical consequences of smoking, but it was
    not limited to such images in its representation of those
    consequences. An autopsy scar is merely one way of
    communicating that the man in the image is dead; viewed in
    connection with the textual warning, the image conveys the
    message that smoking can result in death.
    The images of a baby enveloped in smoke and a woman
    crying both depict the significant harms of secondhand smoke.
    These images accompany the textual warnings “Tobacco smoke
    can harm your children” and “Tobacco smoke causes fatal lung
    disease in nonsmokers,” respectively. Regarding the former
    image, commenters noted that it would “clearly inform parents
    that when they smoke in the presence of their children, their
    children will also be inhaling toxins.” Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 36,650. The latter image, as the FDA explained, highlights
    the “emotional suffering” dimension of fatal lung disease and
    other “negative health consequences caused by secondhand
    smoke exposure.” Id. at 36,656. Those negative health
    consequences are significant. Secondhand smoke “has been
    established as a cause of approximately 3,000 lung cancer deaths
    each year among nonsmokers in the United States”; it also “is a
    significant contributor to cardiac, respiratory, and other diseases
    in individuals exposed to it.” PCP Report at 95; see id. at
    95–96. As a result, secondhand smoke exposure “claims the
    lives of approximately 38,000 nonsmokers annually.” Id. at 95.
    20
    Addressing potential purchasers of cigarettes, these two warning
    labels convey the message that smoking poses risks not only to
    them, but also to their family members and others.
    Initially more problematic is the image of a man wearing a
    t-shirt that reads “I QUIT,” which the tobacco companies
    maintain “provides no information about smoking risks (or even
    the benefits of quitting).” Appellees’ Br. at 26. But the tobacco
    companies overstate the objection, for the image does address
    the benefits of quitting. As the FDA viewed this image, in
    connection with the textual warning “Quitting smoking now
    greatly reduces serious risks to your health,” it conveys the
    message “I quit, and I am alive and healthy.” This message
    comports with the evidence showing that “[s]moking cessation
    decreases the risk of the health consequences of smoking.”
    Proposed Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 69,529. “For example, persons
    who quit smoking before age 50 have one-half the risk of dying
    in the next 15 years compared with continuing smokers.” Id.
    Nothing in this image, or any other image selected by the FDA,
    renders nonfactual or controversial the textual warning it
    accompanies. The warning labels thus qualify as factually
    accurate, uncontroversial disclosures.
    Because the warning labels are “directed at misleading
    commercial speech,” and because they “impose a disclosure
    requirement rather than an affirmative limitation on speech, . . .
    the less exacting scrutiny described in Zauderer” should have
    governed the district court’s review. Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1339
    . While mindful that “unjustified or unduly burdensome
    disclosure requirements might offend the First Amendment by
    chilling protected commercial speech,” the district court should
    have determined whether the warning label requirement was
    “reasonably related” to the government’s interest in effectively
    conveying the negative health consequences of smoking to
    21
    consumers. Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    ; see Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at
    1339–40.
    Under this “less exacting scrutiny,” the warning label
    requirement appears to pass muster. The government need only
    justify the requirement on the basis of substantial evidence on
    the record. See Nat’l Cable & Telecomms. Ass’n v. FCC, 
    555 F.3d 996
    , 1002 (D.C. Cir. 2009). In view of the scientific
    literature supporting the FDA’s reliance on the salience
    measures reported in its study, see Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    36,638, 36,642, 36,649–57, the warning label requirement is
    reasonably related to the government’s interest in effectively
    communicating information about the negative health
    consequences of smoking. And in view of extensive scientific
    literature, see Proposed Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 69,531 (citing
    IOM Report at C-3–4), international experience, see id. at
    69,531–32, domestic experience, see Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    36,632, and common sense, the size and placement of the
    warning labels is also reasonably related to that interest.
    Although some graphic images may evoke emotional reactions,
    it is undisputed that smoking can cause the health consequences
    they depict. Given the magnitude of the government interest in
    informing consumers of these consequences (especially against
    the tobacco companies’ history of consumer deception), the
    expert judgment exercised by the FDA in selecting the graphic
    images, and the absence of any evidence that similar restrictions
    elsewhere have hindered the tobacco companies’ ability to get
    their own message to consumers, the burden on the tobacco
    companies’ First Amendment rights appears neither undue nor
    unjustified. The warning label requirement thus appears
    constitutional. See Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    ; cf. Discount
    Tobacco, 
    674 F.3d at 569
    .
    Attempting to distinguish Zauderer, the court adopts the
    view that the warning label requirement involves “elements of
    22
    compulsion and forced subsidization.” Maj. Op. at 10.
    Commercial disclosure requirements can involve involuntary
    statements and compliance costs. See, e.g., Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at
    1340–41; Meese v. Keene, 
    481 U.S. 465
    , 467, 481–82 (1987).
    Nonetheless, the Supreme Court has reviewed such requirements
    under a different level of scrutiny than noncommercial
    compelled speech, cf. Pac. Gas & Elec. Co. v. Pub. Utils.
    Comm’n of Cal., 
    475 U.S. 1
    , 8–9 (1986), and under a different
    set of considerations than compelled subsidies of private speech,
    cf. United States v. United Foods, Inc., 
    533 U.S. 405
     (2001).
    Contrary to the court’s conclusion that “this case raises novel
    questions about the scope of the government’s authority,” Maj.
    Op. at 11, given the congressional findings and regulatory
    record supporting the government’s interest in effectively
    informing consumers of the negative, indeed potentially lethal,
    consequences of smoking, the warning label requirement falls
    within the scope of the Supreme Court’s traditional First
    Amendment treatment of commercial disclosures.
    Unlike the graphic images envisioned in Section 201,
    however, the additional inclusion of the telephone number “1-
    800-QUIT-NOW” on each warning label does not directly
    disclose factual information about the health consequences of
    smoking. The FDA imposed this requirement, pursuant to
    separate statutory authority, 21 U.S.C. § 387f(d), see Final Rule,
    76 Fed. Reg. at 36,681, in order “to provide a place where
    smokers and other members of the public can obtain smoking
    cessation information from staff trained specifically to help
    smokers quit by delivering unbiased and evidence-based
    information, advice, and support,” Proposed Rule, 75 Fed. Reg.
    at 69,540. In the FDA’s view, inclusion of the number would
    also enhance the effectiveness of the warning labels. See Final
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,681. To the extent the purpose is
    directed toward reducing smoking rates, the constitutionality of
    the number’s mandatory inclusion in the warning labels requires
    23
    examination under a different standard than Zauderer, to which
    I now turn.
    III.
    Where Zauderer scrutiny is inapplicable to a commercial
    speech regulation, “the Supreme Court’s bottom line is clear: the
    government must affirmatively demonstrate its means are
    ‘narrowly tailored’ to achieve a substantial government goal.”
    Philip Morris, 
    566 F.3d at 1143
     (quoting Bd. of Trs. v. Fox, 
    492 U.S. 469
    , 480 (1989)); see Milavetz, 
    130 S. Ct. at 1339
    . In
    applying this level of intermediate scrutiny, the court must
    determine (1) whether the speech “concern[s] lawful activity and
    [is] not . . . misleading,” such that it enjoys First Amendment
    protection; (2) whether the government asserts a substantial
    interest; (3) “whether the regulation directly advances” that
    interest; and (4) whether the regulation “is not more extensive
    than is necessary to serve that interest.” Central Hudson, 
    447 U.S. at 566
    . With regard to the third prong of this test, the
    Supreme Court has clarified that, although the government
    “must demonstrate that the harms it recites are real and that its
    restriction will in fact alleviate them to a material degree,” it
    may do so “by reference to studies and anecdotes pertaining to
    different locales altogether, or even . . . based solely on history,
    consensus, and simple common sense.” Lorillard Tobacco Co.
    v. Reilly, 
    533 U.S. 525
    , 555 (2001) (citations and internal
    quotation marks omitted). And with regard to the fourth prong,
    “[t]he government does not have to show that it has adopted the
    least restrictive means for bringing about its regulatory
    objective; it does not have to demonstrate a perfect
    means—ends fit; and it does not have to satisfy a court that it
    has chosen the best conceivable option.” Nat’l Cable, 
    555 F.3d at 1002
    . “The only condition is that the regulation be
    proportionate to the interests sought to be advanced,” 
    id.
     — that
    24
    there be “a reasonable fit between the means and ends of the
    regulatory scheme,” Lorillard, 
    533 U.S. at 561
    ; see 
    id. at 556
    .
    Even assuming that the graphic images, by depicting the
    actual negative consequences of cigarette smoking and thereby
    evoking emotional reactions, “go beyond . . . purely factual and
    accurate commercial disclosures,” Maj. Op. at 11, there would
    still appear, with one exception, no basis to conclude that the
    warning label requirement violates the tobacco companies’ First
    Amendment rights. The court reaches the opposite conclusion
    by dismissing one of the two government interests stated in the
    rulemaking. Its analysis is directed to a red herring of its own
    creation. Although there are statements in the rulemaking
    record regarding the government’s interest in reducing smoking
    rates, see, e.g., Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,629; Proposed
    Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 69,525, nothing in that record, much less
    the White House press briefing cited by the court, see Maj. Op.
    at 11 n.6, suggests these statements were intended to override
    the clearly stated interest in effectively communicating
    information about the negative health consequences of smoking
    to consumers.        (Nor does the Institute of Medicine’s
    characterization of the objectives of tobacco regulation, see Maj.
    Op. at 23 n.12, detract from the FDA’s own statement of the
    government’s “primary” interest.) To the contrary, in the
    rulemaking the FDA stated repeatedly that, “[c]onsistent with
    the Tobacco Control Act, the purpose of these required warnings
    is to communicate effectively and graphically the very real,
    scientifically established adverse health consequences of
    smoking.” Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,641; see id. at 36,630,
    36,633–42, 36,646–47, 36,696–97, 36,699; Proposed Rule, 75
    Fed. Reg. at 69,526, 69,531–35. Even under Central Hudson
    intermediate scrutiny, the court should have fully examined both
    of the government’s stated interests.
    25
    The government’s informational interest in effectively
    conveying the negative health consequences of smoking clearly
    qualifies as “substantial” under the second prong of Central
    Hudson. “The Supreme Court has said ‘there is no question that
    [the government’s] interest in ensuring the accuracy of
    commercial information in the marketplace is substantial,’”
    Pearson, 164 F.3d at 656 (quoting Edenfield v. Fane, 
    507 U.S. 761
    , 769 (1993)) (alteration in original), “and that the
    government has a substantial interest in ‘promoting the health,
    safety, and welfare of its citizens,’” 
    id.
     (quoting Rubin v. Coors
    Brewing Co., 
    514 U.S. 476
    , 485 (1995)). This court has
    previously “recognize[d] that the government’s interest in
    preventing consumer fraud/confusion may well take on added
    importance in the context of a product . . . that can affect the
    public’s health.” 
    Id.
     And “tobacco use, particularly among
    children and adolescents, poses perhaps the single most
    significant threat to public health in the United States.” Brown
    & Williamson, 
    529 U.S. at 161
    . Congress agreed. See Tobacco
    Control Act § 2(29), 
    21 U.S.C. § 387
     Note. The government
    interest in effectively conveying the negative health
    consequences of smoking takes on even greater importance in
    view of the highly addictive nature of tobacco and the fact that
    “the most serious harmful consequences of smoking are
    cumulative, and occur in the distant future.” Philip Morris, 
    449 F. Supp. 2d at 577
    .
    The warning label requirement appears to meet the third and
    fourth prongs of Central Hudson as well. The rulemaking
    record includes substantial evidence from international
    experience, see Proposed Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 69,531–32, and
    the FDA Study, see Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,637–42,
    supporting the government’s reasoned determination that the
    warnings would “directly advance” its informational interest, not
    least by “ensur[ing] that the health risk message[s] [are] actually
    seen by consumers in the first instance.” Commonwealth
    26
    Brands, Inc. v. United States, 
    678 F. Supp. 2d 512
    , 530 (W.D.
    Ky. 2010), aff’d in relevant part, Discount Tobacco, 
    674 F.3d at 569
    . “The harms [the government] recites are real” — caused
    in part by the “often misleading” advertising that smoking is part
    of a healthy lifestyle without consequences — and there is
    substantial evidence to support the government’s conclusion that
    the warning label requirement “will in fact alleviate [those
    harms] to a material degree.” Lorillard, 
    533 U.S. at 555
    .
    “[H]istory, consensus, and ‘simple common sense,’” 
    id.
     (quoting
    Florida Bar v. Went For It, Inc., 
    515 U.S. 618
    , 628 (1995)),
    demonstrate as well that warning label requirement meets the
    fourth prong of the Central Hudson test. The failures of
    previous government efforts to convey the relevant information
    through small, textual warnings on the side of cigarette
    packages, see Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,631–32; Proposed
    Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 69,530–31, similar to the alternatives the
    tobacco companies now suggest, see Appellees’ Br. at 58–59,
    are sufficient to show that the warning labels, with graphic
    images, are “not more extensive than necessary to serve” the
    government’s substantial interest in effectively conveying that
    information to consumers.
    The one exception is the “1-800-QUIT-NOW” telephone
    number. As mentioned, it is not designed directly to inform
    consumers of the health consequences of smoking, but to assist
    smokers in their cessation efforts. See Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 36,681. Under Central Hudson intermediate scrutiny, the
    government’s interest in reducing smoking rates is doubtless
    substantial. See, e.g., Lorillard, 
    533 U.S. at 564
    ; Brown &
    Williamson, 
    529 U.S. at 161
    . There also is substantial evidence
    to support the FDA’s determination that the display of the “1-
    800-QUIT-NOW” number will directly advance this interest.
    The biological and psychological effects of nicotine “can make
    smoking cessation extremely difficult,” PCP Report at 62;
    “about 40 percent of smokers try to quit” each year, but “95
    27
    percent of those who try to quit on their own relapse,” Final
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 36,681. In comparison to minimal or no
    counseling interventions, quitlines have been found to
    “significantly increase abstinence rates.” Id. at 36,687 (citing
    U.S. Dep’t Health & Human Servs., Public Health Serv.,
    Treating Tobacco Use and Dependence: 2008 Update 91 (May
    2008)); see also IOM Report at C-7. International experience
    referenced in the rulemaking, see Final Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    36,682, further supports the common sense proposition that
    informing smokers of cessation resources is likely to increase
    rates of successful quit attempts.
    But the additional inclusion of the “1-800-QUIT-NOW”
    number on the warning labels does not meet the fourth prong of
    Central Hudson. The number is prominently presented in
    imperative terms, directing consumers to “QUIT NOW.” That
    command directly contradicts the tobacco companies’ desired
    message at the point of sale, thereby imposing a significant
    burden on their protected commercial speech. “In previous
    cases addressing [the] final prong of the Central Hudson test,”
    the Supreme Court has “made clear that if the Government could
    achieve its interests in a manner that does not restrict speech, or
    that restricts less speech, the Government must do so.”
    Thompson, 
    535 U.S. at 371
    . Unlike the warning label
    requirement imposed pursuant to Section 201 in response to the
    demonstrated failures of previously attempted, less burdensome
    warning requirements, the inclusion of the “1-800-QUIT-NOW”
    number follows upon no apparent consideration of the
    effectiveness of alternative means of connecting smokers to
    cessation resources, such as a package insert.11 Absent an
    11
    See, e.g., Appellants’ Reply Br. at 30 (citing cessation
    resource information displayed on the websites of one tobacco
    company, http://www.lorillard.com/?s=quit+smoking and the
    subsidiary of another, http://www.sfntc.com/Quit-Smoking/
    28
    explanation why such alternatives would be inadequate, the
    government has failed to show the requisite “reasonable fit,”
    Lorillard, 533 U.S. at 561. See Thompson, 
    535 U.S. at 373
    .12
    IV.
    Finally, it bears noting that the court’s understanding of the
    precedent governing the appropriate level of scrutiny, as well as
    its dismissal of a well established and substantial government
    interest, is inconsistent with the Supreme Court’s “principal”
    justification for “exten[ding] . . . First Amendment protection to
    commercial speech” — “the value to consumers of the
    information such speech provides.” Zauderer, 
    471 U.S. at 651
    .
    The Supreme Court has reiterated this justification in the
    tobacco context. Addressing “substantial” restrictions on
    tobacco advertising imposed by Massachusetts, the Court
    identified as the “countervailing First Amendment interests” the
    tobacco companies’ “interest in conveying truthful information
    about their products to adults” and adults’ “corresponding
    interest in receiving truthful information about tobacco
    products.” Lorillard, 533 U.S. at 564. In view of this
    justification, the Court has treated disclosure requirements “as
    constitutionally preferable to outright suppression.” Pearson,
    164 F.3d at 657 (citing recent cases). Here, the government has
    required the tobacco companies not only to state, but also to
    show, the significant negative health consequences of using their
    Overview.aspx).
    12
    Neither the tobacco companies nor the rulemaking record
    suggests that the FDA would not have promulgated the Final Rule had
    the “1-800-QUIT-NOW” number been struck from the warning labels,
    and it can be severed. See North Carolina v. EPA, 
    531 F.3d 896
    , 929
    (D.C. Cir. 2008).
    29
    product as intended. The court identifies no principled
    distinction, for purposes of determining the applicable level of
    scrutiny, between the stating and the showing of such
    information. In view of the record evidence — as well as
    experience and common sense — supporting the communicative
    power of graphic images accompanying textual warnings, no
    such distinction appears to exist.
    Given the evidence demonstrating the tenacity of nicotine
    addiction, the young age at which the vast majority of smokers
    begin smoking cigarettes, these smokers’ “incomplete
    understanding of the addictive nature of tobacco use that is
    related, in part, to their inaccurate assessment of smoking risks
    and their belief that they can quit at any time and therefore avoid
    addiction,” IOM Report at 89, and the significant negative
    health consequences of smoking, the government has an interest
    of paramount importance in effectively conveying information
    about the health risks of smoking to adolescent would-be
    smokers and other consumers. The tobacco companies’ decades
    of deception regarding these risks, especially the risk of
    addiction, buttress this interest. Contrary to their arguments,
    nothing in the Supreme Court’s commercial speech precedent
    would restrict the government to conveying these risks in ways
    that have already proved ineffective or would prohibit the
    government from employing the communication tools tobacco
    companies have wielded to great effect over the years.
    For these reasons, the district court erred in applying strict
    scrutiny in sustaining the tobacco companies’ as-applied First
    Amendment challenge to the Tobacco Control Act and the Final
    Rule, and in issuing a permanent injunction. Because the
    warning label requirement (absent the “1-800-QUIT-NOW”
    number) appears to survive the First Amendment challenge
    under either Zauderer or Central Hudson, I would reverse. It
    would remain for the district court on remand to address the
    30
    tobacco companies’ challenges under the Administrative
    Procedure Act, see supra note 1.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 11-5332

Filed Date: 8/24/2012

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 10/15/2015

Authorities (31)

Florida Bar v. Went for It, Inc. , 115 S. Ct. 2371 ( 1995 )

United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc. , 787 F. Supp. 2d 68 ( 2011 )

Board of Trustees of State Univ. of NY v. Fox , 109 S. Ct. 3028 ( 1989 )

Edenfield v. Fane , 113 S. Ct. 1792 ( 1993 )

Rubin v. Coors Brewing Co. , 115 S. Ct. 1585 ( 1995 )

Thompson v. Western States Medical Center , 122 S. Ct. 1497 ( 2002 )

Southern Air Transport, Inc., Appellant/cross-Appellee v. ... , 877 F.2d 1010 ( 1989 )

Davis v. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. , 571 F.3d 1288 ( 2009 )

Pharmaceutical Care v. Rowe , 429 F.3d 294 ( 2005 )

national-electrical-manufacturers-association-v-william-h-sorrell , 272 F.3d 104 ( 2001 )

West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette , 63 S. Ct. 1178 ( 1943 )

Food & Drug Administration v. Brown & Williamson Tobacco ... , 120 S. Ct. 1291 ( 2000 )

Sorrell v. IMS Health Inc. , 131 S. Ct. 2653 ( 2011 )

Brown v. Entertainment Merchants Assn. , 131 S. Ct. 2729 ( 2011 )

Commonwealth Brands, Inc. v. United States , 678 F. Supp. 2d 512 ( 2010 )

Novartis Corp. v. Federal Trade Commission , 223 F.3d 783 ( 2000 )

Entertainment Software Association v. Rod R. Blagojevich., ... , 469 F.3d 641 ( 2006 )

New York State Restaurant Ass'n v. New York City Board of ... , 556 F.3d 114 ( 2009 )

Glickman v. Wileman Brothers & Elliott, Inc. , 117 S. Ct. 2130 ( 1997 )

United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc. , 449 F. Supp. 2d 1 ( 2006 )

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