AZ Pub Svc Co v. EPA ( 1998 )


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  •                         United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued October 6, 1997 Decided February 13, 1998
    No. 96-1497
    Appalachian Power Company, et al.,
    Petitioners
    v.
    Environmental Protection Agency,
    Respondent
    Public Service Electric & Gas Company, et al.,
    Intervenors
    Consolidated with
    No. 97-1091
    On Petitions for Review of an Order of the
    Environmental Protection Agency
    F. William Brownell argued the cause for petitioners
    Appalachian Power Company, et al., with whom Henry V.
    Nickel and Craig S. Harrison were on the briefs.
    Thomas Sayre Llewellyn argued the cause for petitioner
    Arizona Public Service Company, with whom George Y. Sugi-
    yama and Michael B. Wood were on the briefs.  Munford P.
    Hall II entered an appearance.
    Scott J. Jordan and Wendy L. Blake, Attorneys, United
    States Department of Justice, argued the cause for respon-
    dent, with whom Lois J. Schiffer, Assistant Attorney General,
    and Dwight C. Alpern, Attorney, Environmental Protection
    Agency, were on the brief.
    Richard E. Ayres, John H. Sharp, and John H. Cheatham
    III were on the brief for intervenor Natural Gas Supply
    Association, et al.
    Harold P. Quinn, Jr., was on the brief for intervenor
    National Mining Association.
    Andrew J. Gershon and J. Jared Snyder, Assistant Attor-
    neys General, State of New York, Brian J. Comerford, Assis-
    tant Attorney General, State of Connecticut, Edward G.
    Bohlen, Assistant Attorney General, Commonwealth of Mas-
    sachusetts, Jeffrey A. Meyers, Assistant Attorney General,
    State of New Hampshire, and David Rocchio, Assistant At-
    torney General, State of Vermont, were on the brief for amici
    curiae New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp-
    shire, and Vermont.  Lisa M. Burianek, Assistant Attorney
    General, State of New York, entered an appearance.
    Before:  Wald, Henderson, and Garland, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed Per Curiam.
    Per Curiam1:  This case revisits Title IV of the Clean Air
    Act ("the Act"), which, inter alia, directs the Environmental
    Protection Agency ("EPA") to promulgate limits on the emis-
    sion of nitrogen oxides from various electric utility boilers.
    In Alabama Power Co. v. EPA, 
    40 F.3d 450
     (D.C. Cir. 1994),
    we invalidated the first set of these emission limits as exceed-
    ing EPA's statutory authority.2  We are now presented with
    a challenge by a number of electric utilities and industry
    groups 3 to the next group of nitrogen oxides emission limits
    promulgated under the Act:  a more stringent revision of the
    first set of emission limits and a new set of emission limits for
    a second group of boilers.  This time, we uphold the bulk of
    the challenged rule, concluding that EPA has not exceeded its
    authority and cognizant of the deference due to an agency
    dealing with largely scientific and technical matters.  We
    vacate, however, the portion of the final rule that reclassifies
    certain retrofitted cell burner boilers as wall-fired boilers and
    remand it to EPA for reconsideration or a more adequate
    justification.
    I. Background
    Among the 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act, 42
    U.S.C. s 7401 et seq. (1994), was Title IV, which was designed
    to reduce the adverse effects of acid deposition (more com-
    monly known as "acid rain") from the atmosphere by limiting
    the allowable emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen
    oxides (NOx), two principal sources of acidic compounds.  See
    42 U.S.C. s 7651 (1994) (congressional findings and pur-
    poses).  Electric utilities such as Appalachian Power contrib-
    ute to NOx emissions through the burning of coal, which
    __________
    1 Judge Wald authored the Introduction and Parts I, II.A, II.C,
    and III.  Judge Garland authored Parts II.B and II.D.
    2 EPA subsequently repromulgated these limits in accordance
    with our opinion.  See Acid Rain Program;  Nitrogen Oxides Emis-
    sion Reduction Program, 
    60 Fed. Reg. 18,751
     (1995).
    3 Because the named petitioner on this appeal is Appalachian
    Power Company, we refer to the petitioners as a group--except for
    Arizona Public Service Company, which has appealed separately--
    as "Appalachian Power."
    releases nitric oxide (NO) that reacts with elements in the air
    to form nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and other harmful pollutants.
    In 1990, electric utility emissions constituted approximately
    32 percent of total annual NOx emissions.  See Acid Rain
    Program;  Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction Program, 
    61 Fed. Reg. 67,112
    , 67,112 (1996).  In order to encourage a
    reduction in NOx emissions, Title IV directs EPA to set NOx
    emission limits for two groups of coal-fired electric utility
    boilers and divides those boilers into two additional groups
    for the purpose of setting compliance deadlines.  A boiler
    therefore may be a "Group 1 boiler" 4 or a "Group 2 boiler," 5
    depending on its type, and may be a "Phase I boiler" or a
    "Phase II boiler," depending on when it is subject to emis-
    sions limitations.6  There are both Group 1 boilers and Group
    2 boilers in each of the compliance phases.
    __________
    4 Group 1 comprises tangentially fired boilers and dry bottom
    wall-fired boilers other than those applying cell burner technology.
    See 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(1) (1994).  A tangentially fired boiler's
    burners are located in the corner of the furnace, while a wall-fired
    boiler's burners are located along the furnace wall.  Alabama
    Power, 
    40 F.3d at
    452 n.1.
    5 Group 2 comprises wet bottom wall-fired boilers, cyclone boilers,
    cell burners, and "all other types of utility boilers."  See 42 U.S.C.
    s 7651f(b)(2) (1994).  Wet bottom boilers are characterized by a
    high internal temperature that converts ash into molten slag, which
    collects in a tank at the bottom of the furnace.  Cyclone boilers are
    a type of wet bottom boiler in which the fuel and air are burned in
    horizontal, water-cooled cylinders called "cyclones."  Cell burners
    are dry bottom boilers that have arrays of two or three closely
    spaced circular burners, forming a "cell," mounted on the wall of
    the furnace.  Vertically fired boilers contain conventional circular
    burners or coal and air pipes oriented downward rather than
    horizontally, as in wall-fired boilers.  Acid Rain Program;  Nitrogen
    Oxides Emission Reduction Program, 
    61 Fed. Reg. 1442
    , 1456
    (proposed Jan. 19, 1996).
    6 The terms are derived from the statutory scheme regarding
    limits on SO2 emissions.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(a) (1994).  In this
    scheme, boilers subject to the limitations in Phase I, see 42 U.S.C.
    s 7651c (1994), must comply with the limits by January 1, 1995;
    boilers subject to the limitations in Phase II, see 42 U.S.C. s 7651d
    One method of reducing NOx emissions is to retrofit coal-
    fired boilers with an emission control device.  For Group 1
    boilers, such a device commonly consists of what is termed
    "low NOx burner technology," which, as we noted in Alabama
    Power, is an emission control method that limits the amount
    of oxygen available to react with the nitrogen in the coal and
    thus reduces the amount of nitrogen oxides formed.  Ala-
    bama Power, 
    40 F.3d at
    452 n.3.  The emissions from Group
    2 boilers are more difficult to reduce, and thus Group 2
    boilers are retrofitted with a greater variety of emission
    controls, including selective catalytic reduction,7 selective non-
    catalytic reduction,8 gas reburning,9 and plug-in and non-plug-
    in retrofits.10  Each control method can achieve varying levels
    of NOx emissions reduction.
    As we noted in Alabama Power, Congress intended in
    enacting Title IV "to tie the obligation of utilities to meet the
    NOx emission limit to the use of low NOx burners."  Alabama
    Power, 
    40 F.3d at 455
    .  To this end, section 407(b)(1) requires
    that the Group 1 limits be set at a maximum of 0.45 pounds
    per million British thermal units ("lb/mmBtu") for tangential-
    __________
    (1994), must comply by January 1, 2000.  Failure to adhere to the
    prescribed limitations results in a fine.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7651j(a)
    (1994).
    7 Selective catalytic reduction involves adding ammonia to the flue
    gas of the burner, which then passes through a catalyst, turning the
    NOx into molecular nitrogen and water.  61 Fed. Reg. at 1458.
    8 Selective noncatalytic reduction injects a reducing agent into the
    flue gas that reacts with the NOx in the gas to form molecular
    nitrogen and water.  Id.
    9 Gas reburning involves the diversion of part of the primary fuel
    heat input to a location above the main burners.  As flue gas passes
    through this area, part of the NOx formed is converted to molecular
    nitrogen.  Id.
    10 Installing non-plug-in combustion controls on cell burners in-
    volves replacing the portion of the wall containing the cell with a
    new wall containing widely spaced low NOx burners. Plug-in con-
    trols, by contrast, replace the cells with low NOx burners, maintain-
    ing the original cell configuration.  Id. at 1457-58.
    ly fired boilers and 0.50 lb/mmBtu for dry bottom wall-fired
    boilers, unless EPA finds that these rates cannot be achieved
    using "low NOx burner technology," a term not explicitly
    defined in the statute.  The limits, which were to be set by
    May 15, 1992, would then apply to Group 1, Phase I boilers
    starting on January 1, 1995.  42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(1).  EPA
    was permitted to revise the Group 1 limits by January 1,
    1997, to apply to Phase II boilers if it determined that "more
    effective low NOx burner technology [was] available."  42
    U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2).11  If no such revision were undertaken
    by January 1, 1997, the limits established for the Group 1,
    Phase I boilers were to go into effect for the Group 1, Phase
    II boilers.  EPA was also required to set by January 1, 1997,
    the NOx emission limits for Group 2 boilers.  These limits
    were to be based "on the degree of reduction achievable
    through the retrofit application of the best system of continu-
    ous emission reduction, taking into account available technolo-
    gy, costs and energy and environmental impacts;  and which
    is comparable to the costs of nitrogen oxide controls" set for
    the Group 1, Phase I boilers.  42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2).
    On March 22, 1994, well past its statutory deadline, EPA
    promulgated the Group 1, Phase I emission limits.  See Acid
    Rain Program;  Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction Pro-
    gram, 
    59 Fed. Reg. 13,538
     (1994).  The final rule defined "low
    NOx burner technology" to include overfire air, another emis-
    sion control method, as well as low NOx burners themselves.12
    We invalidated the rule as inconsistent with EPA's statutory
    directive, holding that the term "low NOx burner technology"
    __________
    11 The statute provides that boilers subject to the Phase I emis-
    sion limits set pursuant to section 407(b)(1) of the Act will not be
    subject to any revised limits.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2).
    12 Like low NOx burners, overfire air, as we noted in Alabama
    Power, reduces the amount of oxygen available to react with the
    nitrogen in the coal and thus limits the formation of NOx. It
    accomplishes this by removing oxygen from around the burner and
    reintroducing it to the boiler through a port above the burner.
    Alabama Power, 
    40 F.3d at
    452 n.3.
    was an "unambiguous reference to low NOx burners" that did
    not permit EPA to include additional control methods.   Ala-
    bama Power, 
    40 F.3d at 455
    .  EPA subsequently revised the
    1994 regulations on April 13, 1995, to eliminate references to
    overfire air and established limits of 0.45 lb/mmBtu for
    tangentially fired boilers and 0.50 lb/mmBtu for wall-fired
    boilers, limits identical to those provided for in the statute.
    See 60 Fed. Reg. at 18,763; 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(1).  To
    account for the delay in promulgation, the compliance date for
    Group 1, Phase I boilers was moved to January 1, 1996.  60
    Fed. Reg. at 18,763.
    The rule at issue here, issued on December 19, 1996,
    promulgates the next set of emission limits under the statuto-
    ry scheme:  the revised NOx emission limits for Group 1,
    Phase II boilers as well as the NOx emission limits for Group
    2 boilers.  61 Fed. Reg. at 67,112.  EPA revised the Group 1
    limits after determining, as required by section 407(b)(2), that
    boilers with low NOx burners were achieving lower emission
    levels than the limits promulgated in 1995 and therefore that
    more effective low NOx burner technology was available.
    (This determination was the result of a regression analysis in
    which EPA constructed equations capturing the reduction
    achieved by Group 1, Phase I boilers and applied these
    equations to the uncontrolled emission rates of Group 1,
    Phase II boilers.)  In establishing the Group 2 emission
    limits, EPA interpreted its statutory directive to require a
    comparison of the cost-effectiveness of Group 2 controls and
    low NOx burner technology and thus promulgated emission
    limits for Group 2 boilers based on control technologies that
    were shown to be as cost-effective in reducing NOx emissions
    as low NOx burner technology.  In addition, relying on sec-
    tion 407(a), which states that a boiler becomes an "affected
    unit" for purposes of the NOx emission limits at the same
    time it becomes an affected unit for purposes of the SO2
    emission limits (established elsewhere in Title IV), EPA set
    January 1, 2000, as the date by which compliance with the
    new limits must be achieved.13  Finally, EPA determined that
    certain retrofitted cell burner boilers should be reclassified
    from Group 2 to Group 1, thereby subjecting them to the
    stricter emission limits applicable to the latter group.
    Appalachian Power and petitioner Arizona Public Service
    Company now seek review of these portions of the final rule,
    claiming that EPA's actions both exceeded its statutory au-
    thority and were arbitrary and capricious.14
    __________
    13 The emission limits established by the final rule were 0.40
    lb/mmBtu for tangentially fired boilers;  0.46 lb/mmBtu for dry
    bottom boilers; 0.68 lb/mmBtu for cell burners; 0.86 lb/mmBtu for
    cyclones larger than 155 megawatts of electricity ("MWe"); 0.84
    lb/mmBtu for wet bottom boilers larger than 65 MWe; and 0.80
    lb/mmBtu for vertically fired boilers.  EPA determined that each of
    these limits would be achievable by 85 to 90 percent of the
    applicable boiler population.  61 Fed. Reg. at 67,113-14.
    14 Appalachian Power appended five exhibits to its reply brief
    that it asserts buttress arguments made in its opening brief.  Four
    of the exhibits appear to consist of manipulations of EPA's statisti-
    cal models prepared by Appalachian Power's consultant at least
    four months after the final rule was issued.  Because these exhibits
    were never submitted to EPA, they are excluded from the record
    for judicial review.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7607(d)(7)(A) (1994); American
    Petroleum Inst. v. Costle, 
    609 F.2d 20
    , 22 (D.C. Cir. 1979).  Appala-
    chian Power contends that the exhibits could not have been submit-
    ted during the rulemaking because EPA did not disclose its meth-
    odology early enough in the process.  Even if this were true, under
    such circumstances the statute requires that the materials first be
    raised with the agency through a petition for reconsideration.  See
    42 U.S.C. s 7607(d)(7)(B) (1994); American Petroleum Inst. v.
    Costle, 
    665 F.2d 1176
    , 1191 (D.C. Cir. 1981) (quoting H.R. Rep. No.
    95-294, at 323 (1977)) (" '[T]he Agency must first be given an
    opportunity to pass on the significance of the materials and deter-
    mine whether supplementary proceeding[s] are called for or not.' ").
    The virtue of this requirement is readily apparent in this case:
    Because the four documents were appended to a reply brief with
    virtually no explication and without opportunity for agency re-
    sponse, we are unable to evaluate their accuracy or significance.  A
    fifth document appended to Appalachian Power's reply brief is a
    Department of Energy memorandum commenting on a draft of
    II. Discussion
    A.  The Group 1, Phase II Emission Limits
    Appalachian Power's first challenge is to EPA's statutory
    authority to revise the Group 1 emission limits, which is
    bounded by the requirement that the agency must determine
    that "more effective low NOx burner technology is available."
    See 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2).  EPA argues that a plain reading
    of this language reveals that it may revise the Group 1
    emission limits if performance data show that available tech-
    nology can achieve lower emission limits.  It contends that
    because Congress required the agency to evaluate the capa-
    bilities of low NOx burner technology when setting the initial
    Group 1 limits, Congress must have intended that EPA would
    reevaluate those capabilities in deciding whether to revise
    those limits.  Appalachian Power argues, however, that "more
    effective" technology refers to a change in burner design and
    not merely to a proven increase in the effectiveness of
    existing burners.  Because EPA has not provided evidence
    that "more effective" burners than those justifying the April
    1995 limits exist, Appalachian Power argues, the revised rates
    must be vacated as contrary to the statute.
    Because resolution of this question turns on the interpreta-
    tion of the statutory phrase "more effective low NOx burner
    technology," the two-step Chevron framework governs our
    analysis.  Under Chevron, we must first consider, having
    studied the statutory text and the legislative history, "wheth-
    er Congress has directly spoken to the precise question at
    issue.  If the intent of Congress is clear, that is the end of the
    matter;  for the court, as well as the agency, must give effect
    __________
    EPA's final rule.  As the statute makes clear, such interagency
    comments are not part of the record for judicial review.  See 42
    U.S.C. s 7607(d)(7)(A); Sierra Club v. Costle, 
    657 F.2d 298
    , 404
    n.519 (D.C. Cir. 1981).  Accordingly, we grant EPA's motion to
    strike the five exhibits.
    Appalachian Power's challenge to the rule's NOx allowance pro-
    gram, see 40 C.F.R. s 76.16 (1997), has been mooted by our
    granting of EPA's motion to vacate and remand this portion of the
    rule.
    to the unambiguously expressed intent of Congress."  Chev-
    ron U.S.A. Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc.,
    
    467 U.S. 837
    , 842-43 (1984); see also Ohio v. United States
    Dep't of the Interior, 
    880 F.2d 432
    , 441 (D.C. Cir. 1989).  If
    Congress has not directly addressed the precise question at
    issue, "the question for the court is whether the agency's
    answer is based on a permissible construction of the statute,"
    Chevron, 
    467 U.S. at
    843--that is, whether it is "reasonable in
    light of the Act's text, legislative history, and purpose."
    Southern Calif. Edison Co. v. FERC, 
    116 F.3d 507
    , 511 (D.C.
    Cir. 1997).
    Chevron's first step does not take us very far.  There is
    nothing in the statutory section at issue or in the legislative
    history to suggest what Congress meant by "more effective
    low NOx burner technology" or, more specifically, whether
    the phrase can encompass varied applications of existing
    controls as well as new controls.  The word "technology," for
    example, is a chameleon word, capable of many meanings, but
    here even its context does not help us to identify a precise
    meaning.  Elsewhere in the Act, "technology" is defined as
    comprising "methods, systems, and techniques," which lends
    support to EPA's interpretation, see, e.g., 42 U.S.C. s 7479(3)
    (1994) (defining "best available control technology" as an
    emission limitation achievable through "application of produc-
    tion processes and available methods, systems, and tech-
    niques"), but this single reference cannot suffice to determine
    Congress's intent with respect to low NOx burners.
    The legislative history also provides few clues as to the
    breadth of the phrase.  Although the 1990 amendments to the
    Act were ultimately the product of a conference committee,
    the language in section 407(b)(2) was derived largely from the
    Senate bill.  During debate on the bill, several senators
    referred to "low NOx burner technology" as the standard by
    which other emission control methods would be judged, but
    none of these senators elaborated on what the phrase includ-
    ed.  See, e.g., 136 Cong. Rec. 35,627 (1990) (statement of Sen.
    Cochran) ("[U]tilities will be allowed to comply with nitrogen
    oxide reduction requirements through the application of low-
    NOx burner technology.  This technology is a reasonable,
    cost-effective method which has proven to be successful in
    achieving significant NOx reductions."); 136 Cong. Rec. 5046
    (1990) (statement of Sen. Lott) (emission rates are based on
    "the application of low-NOx burner technology, a much more
    reasonable and cost-effective method proven to successfully
    achieve significant NOx reductions").  Similarly, the confer-
    ence report accompanying the final version of the bill notes
    simply that "[t]he NOx reductions from existing units mandat-
    ed under section 407 are to be accomplished by use of
    conventional, available burner technology ('low-NOx' burn-
    ers)," H.R. Conf. Rep. No. 101-952, at 344 (1990), a declaration
    that does not aid us in divining whether the phrase "more
    effective low NOx burner technology" implies a change in
    burner.
    Because our search for Congress's intent has been less
    than fruitful, we go on to decide, under the second step of the
    Chevron analysis, whether EPA's interpretation of the phrase
    "more effective low NOx burner technology" to encompass
    improved performance of existing burners is reasonable.  We
    believe that it is.  As we have noted, it is evident that
    Congress intended that low NOx burner technology serve as a
    benchmark for emission limits promulgated under Title IV, so
    to the extent that the rule derived from EPA's interpretation
    does not require technology beyond low NOx burners, that
    rule would not be inconsistent with the intent of the statute.
    EPA's interpretation is also consistent with the concern with
    achievability that motivates the section.  See, e.g., 42 U.S.C.
    s 7651f(b)(1) (EPA may set higher emission limits than those
    provided by statute if statutory rates are not achievable);  
    id.
    s 7651f(b)(2) (Group 2 emission limits must be based on
    achievable degree of reduction).  In other words, it is a fair
    interpretation to read Congress's directive that more effective
    technology be available as authorizing more stringent limits
    only if those limits are achievable in practice.  Moreover, the
    fact that Congress did not simply require a determination
    that "more effective low NOx burners" existed suggests that
    "more effective low NOx burner technology" refers to some-
    thing beyond the burner hardware itself.  If this were not the
    case, we would expect to find some evidence to the contrary
    in the legislative history; we find none, and Appalachian
    Power is unable to point us toward any.
    We addressed a similar issue with respect to the Clean Air
    Act in International Harvester Co. v. Ruckelshaus, 
    478 F.2d 615
     (D.C. Cir. 1973).  At issue was a provision of the Act that
    authorized a one-year exemption from an emission-level re-
    quirement if, inter alia, "the applicant has established that
    effective control technology, processes, operating methods, or
    other alternatives are not available."  
    Id. at 624
     (quoting 42
    U.S.C. s 1857f-1(b)(5)(D)(iii) (1970)).  We rejected the peti-
    tioners' argument that EPA's determination of whether tech-
    nology was "available" must be based solely on "technology in
    being as of the time of the application."  Rather, we held that
    EPA was justified in determining what technology would be
    considered "available" based on predicted improvements in
    existing technology, "subject to the restraints of reasonable-
    ness."  
    Id. at 628-29
    .  See also Portland Cement Ass'n v.
    Ruckelshaus, 
    486 F.2d 375
    , 391-92 (D.C. Cir. 1973) (in deter-
    mining "achievable" emission limits, EPA may make reason-
    able projection based on existing technology).  We can find
    no significant difference between a determination that "avail-
    able" technology includes predicted improvements in existing
    technology and a determination that "more effective" technol-
    ogy includes actual improved performance in existing technol-
    ogy.  We thus think it reasonable, as a preliminary matter,
    for EPA to find that "more effective low NOx burner technol-
    ogy" exists if improved performance for already-existing
    burners can be shown.
    Appalachian Power next argues that even if "more effective
    low NOx burner technology" is given the meaning we approve
    today, EPA has failed to show that boiler performance has
    improved.  EPA asserts that its regression analysis shows
    that boilers retrofitted with low NOx burners can achieve
    lower emission levels than the limits deemed adequate by the
    1995 rule.  This improvement in performance, EPA contends,
    may be attributable to a number of improvements in the
    effectiveness of the technology surrounding low NOx burners,
    including the accumulated experience of boiler operators,
    improved operating practices, more advanced burner tuning
    and management software, and improved automation.  Appa-
    lachian Power challenges this conclusion, arguing that the
    revised limits set by the rule require technology beyond the
    capability of low NOx burners.  Because Appalachian Power's
    challenge, although framed in the most general of terms, is at
    root a challenge to EPA's analytical model, we must consider
    whether the use of that model was arbitrary and capricious.
    See 42 U.S.C. s 7607(d)(9) (1994) (authorizing reversal of
    actions under the Act found to be "arbitrary, capricious, an
    abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law").
    Our analysis is guided by the deference traditionally given to
    agency expertise, particularly when dealing with a statutory
    scheme as unwieldy and science-driven as the Clean Air Act.
    As we have previously noted, so long as EPA "acted within its
    delegated statutory authority, considered all of the relevant
    factors, and demonstrated a reasonable connection between
    the facts on the record and its decision," we will not interfere
    with its conclusion.  Ethyl Corp. v. EPA, 
    51 F.3d 1053
    , 1064
    (D.C. Cir. 1995).
    Statistical analysis is perhaps the prime example of those
    areas of technical wilderness into which judicial expeditions
    are best limited to ascertaining the lay of the land.  Although
    computer models are "a useful and often essential tool for
    performing the Herculean labors Congress imposed on EPA
    in the Clean Air Act," Sierra Club, 
    657 F.2d at 332
    , their
    scientific nature does not easily lend itself to judicial review.
    Our consideration of EPA's use of a regression analysis in
    this case must therefore comport with the deference tradi-
    tionally given to an agency when reviewing a scientific analy-
    sis within its area of expertise without abdicating our duty to
    ensure that the application of this model was not arbitrary.
    As we have noted, it is only when the model bears no rational
    relationship to the characteristics of the data to which it is
    applied that we will hold that the use of the model was
    arbitrary and capricious.  See American Iron & Steel Inst. v.
    EPA, 
    115 F.3d 979
    , 1005 (D.C. Cir. 1997); Chemical Mfrs.
    Ass'n v. EPA, 
    28 F.3d 1259
    , 1265 (D.C. Cir. 1994).  There-
    fore, while we will examine each step of EPA's analysis to
    satisfy ourselves that the agency has not departed from a
    rational course, we will not take it upon ourselves, as nonsta-
    tisticians, to perform our own statistical analysis--a job more
    properly left to the agency to which it was delegated.
    EPA's determination of the revised Group 1 emission rates
    involved four steps:  (1) the construction of a database consist-
    ing of Group 1, Phase I boilers already employing low NOx
    burner technology; (2) the derivation of two equations (one
    each for tangentially fired boilers and wall-fired boilers) that
    captured the percent reduction in emissions from the uncon-
    trolled emission rates achieved by the boilers in the database;
    (3) the application of these equations to the uncontrolled
    emission rates of Group 1, Phase II boilers; and (4) the
    setting of emission rates for Group 1, Phase II boilers based
    on the range of data resulting from the application of the
    equations.  We examine each of these steps in turn.
    1. Construction of the Database
    EPA began its determination of whether the Group 1 limits
    should be revised by constructing a computerized database
    consisting of all known boilers that had installed only low NOx
    burners 15 subsequent to November 15, 1990 (the date the
    amendments to the Act were enacted),16 and for which there
    existed at least 52 days of data measured by continuous
    emission monitors ("CEMs").17  This database consisted ini-
    __________
    15 Our ruling in Alabama Power prevented EPA from interpret-
    ing "low NOx burner technology" as constituting any control meth-
    od in addition to low NOx burners.
    16 EPA considered only post-1990 retrofits because it believed
    that Congress implicitly incorporated the then-current state of
    burner technology into the Act's amendments.  See 61 Fed. Reg. at
    1443.  Appalachian Power does not challenge this conclusion.
    17 A CEM is used "to sample, analyze, measure, and provide, by
    readings taken at least once every 15 minutes, a permanent record
    of emissions, expressed in pounds per hour (lb/hr) for sulfur dioxide
    and in pounds per million British thermal units (lb/mmBtu) for
    nitrogen oxides."  40 C.F.R. s 72.2 (1997).  Both EPA and industry
    commenters believed that 52 days constituted the minimum number
    of days of data needed for a valid analysis.  See 61 Fed. Reg. at
    67,124.
    tially of 24 wall-fired boilers and 9 tangentially fired boilers.
    61 Fed. Reg. at 67,121.  In response to the recommendations
    of several commenters that various boilers be included in or
    excluded from this database, EPA formalized and expanded
    its selection criteria into Data Quality Objectives ("DQOs")--
    "rigorous and precisely defined rule tables" used to select
    candidates for the database.  Id. at 67,122.  Application of
    the DQOs resulted in a new database consisting of 39 wall-
    fired boilers and 14 tangentially fired boilers, a result that
    EPA believed would "increase[ ] the overall representative-
    ness of the database."  Id. at 67,123-24.
    EPA then considered the lowest average NOx emission rate
    each boiler in the database had sustained for at least 52 days
    when CEM data were available (the "low NOx period").  To
    take into account the fact that the emissions rate immediately
    after low NOx burner installation might not be representative
    of a boiler's emissions rate at full operating capacity, EPA
    also analyzed emission rates for a time period beginning 30
    days after resumption of operation after installation until the
    end of the available CEM data as well as for a time period
    beginning with the first hour of the low NOx period until the
    end of the available CEM data.  Id. at 67,125.18  In response
    to comments that suggested that the 52-day period alone was
    insufficient to determine actual emission rates, EPA selected
    for the final rule the time period beginning with the first hour
    of the low NOx period until the end of the available CEM data
    (the "post-optimization period") as the basis for assessing low
    NOx burner performance.19  Id. at 67,126.
    __________
    18 EPA also developed "load-weighted annual average NOx emis-
    sion rates" to take into account the fact that the low NOx period
    may not adequately capture seasonal variations in demand for
    power and found these rates to be "essentially the same as or lower
    than" the average emission rates for the low NOx period.  61 Fed.
    Reg. at 67,125.
    19 Appalachian Power's argument that EPA unreasonably limited
    its analysis to the 52-day period is thus unfounded.  In any event,
    the use of the post-optimization period seems eminently rational
    As part of its procedural challenge to the rule, Appalachian
    Power argues that EPA violated the rulemaking require-
    ments of the Act by not disclosing the DQOs until the final
    rule, apparently invoking the Act's requirement that EPA's
    notice of proposed rulemaking ("NPRM") include, inter alia,
    "the methodology used in obtaining the data."  42 U.S.C.
    s 7607(d)(3)(B) (1994).  We disagree.  While it is true that
    the DQOs did not appear in the NPRM in precisely the same
    form or to the same extent as they did in the final rule, it is
    not the case that any significant DQO appeared for the first
    time in the final rule.  In the NPRM, EPA listed two criteria
    that governed selection of boilers for the database:  (1) wheth-
    er units had installed only low NOx burners and had installed
    them after the date of enactment of the 1990 amendments
    and (2) whether post-retrofit hourly emission rate data, mea-
    sured by CEMs and sustained for at least a 52-day period,
    was available.  61 Fed. Reg. at 1443-44.  The DQOs in the
    final rule include these criteria as well as the following:  (1)
    the database would be limited to Group 1 boilers; (2) boilers
    for which low NOx burner design, installation, and/or opera-
    tions were known to be seriously flawed would be excluded;
    (3) boilers would have to have a pre-retrofit uncontrolled
    emission rate based on quality-assured data; (4) New Source
    Performance Standards boilers 20 or boilers using Powder
    River Basin coal would be excluded because they could more
    easily meet low NOx emission limits than other boilers.  61
    Fed. Reg. at 67,122 (Table 3).  With the exception of criterion
    (1), which merely defines the database, the DQOs that ap-
    peared explicitly for the first time in the final rule were all
    intended to exclude faulty or overly optimistic data.  Appala-
    __________
    given the alternatives:  Using solely the 52-day period would, as
    Appalachian Power argues, rely on too little data, and using the
    entire post-retrofit period after the 30-day break-in period would
    give inordinate weight to data arising from a time when a boiler was
    not operating at its optimal performance level.
    20 New Source Performance Standard boilers are new coal-fired
    utility boilers on which construction began after August 17, 1971,
    and which are subject to the New Source Performance Standards
    contained in 40 C.F.R. pt. 60.  61 Fed. Reg. at 67,121.
    chian Power does not and, we think, could not contend that it
    would have challenged these quality-control DQOs had they
    been presented in full in the proposed rule.  There is there-
    fore no basis for us to conclude, as we must to invalidate the
    rule for procedural errors, that the addition of these DQOs in
    the final rule was "so serious and related to matters of such
    central relevance to the rule that there is a substantial
    likelihood that the rule would have been significantly changed
    if such errors had not been made."  42 U.S.C. s 7607(d)(8)
    (1994).  By including all the database criteria in the NPRM
    that could possibly have been subject to adverse comment,
    EPA has complied with its statutory directive to include "the
    methodology used in obtaining the data."
    Moreover, we can find no apparent defects in the database
    itself.  In constructing the database for the final rule, EPA
    applied the DQOs not only to those boilers used in the
    proposed rule analysis but also to those boilers that commen-
    ters requested that EPA consider as well as to additional
    boilers identified by EPA as using low NOx burner technolo-
    gy.  This resulted in the addition of 20 boilers to the database
    (which ultimately contained a total of 39 wall-fired boilers and
    14 tangentially fired boilers 21).  61 Fed. Reg. at 67,123-24.
    In this respect, EPA has identified all likely candidates for
    the boiler database as well as been responsive to comments.22
    Appalachian Power's assertion that the emission rates reflect
    __________
    21 Although the relatively small number of tangentially fired
    boilers might be cause for looking more closely at the regression
    analysis for this subgroup, see Daniel L. Rubinfeld, Reference Guide
    on Multiple Regression, in Reference Manual on Scientific
    Evidence 415, 454 (1994) (noting that 30 data points are typically
    seen as sufficient for regressions with a small number of explanato-
    ry variables), Appalachian Power has not controverted EPA's asser-
    tion that the database is representative of the entire boiler popula-
    tion.
    22 We therefore reject Appalachian Power's assertion that EPA's
    enlargement of the database post-proposal constituted a procedural
    violation.  As we noted in International Harvester, 
    478 F.2d at
    632
    n.51, it would be unproductive to insist that an agency "learn from
    the comments on its proposals only at the peril of starting a new
    boilers employing beyond-burner technology is not supported
    by the record.
    2. Construction of the Equations
    Using the database, EPA constructed two linear regression
    equations, one for wall-fired boilers and one for tangentially
    fired boilers, that captured the percent reduction in emissions
    with low NOx burner technology as a function of the uncon-
    trolled emission rate.  As EPA noted in the preamble to the
    final rule, the use of a regression model rather than a simple
    extrapolation from the low NOx burner database would enable
    EPA better to predict the effect of installing low NOx burner
    technology on Phase II boilers.  See 61 Fed. Reg. at 67,130.
    It is commonly understood that the more variables that are
    included in a regression analysis, the more likely it is that the
    model describes accurately the phenomenon it is being used
    to explain.23  As the Supreme Court has noted in the employ-
    ment discrimination context, "the omission of variables from a
    regression analysis may render the analysis less probative
    than it otherwise might be," but it does not render the
    analysis completely devoid of value.  Bazemore v. Friday, 
    478 U.S. 385
    , 400 (1986).  Nevertheless, a number of commenters,
    Appalachian Power among them, argued that EPA's analysis
    failed to take into account several operational factors associat-
    ed with low NOx burners, including normal aging and wear of
    __________
    procedural round of commentary."  So long as the final rule pro-
    mulgated by the agency is a "logical outgrowth" of the proposed
    rule--that is, if "the purposes of notice and comment have been
    adequately served," Fertilizer Inst. v. EPA, 
    935 F.2d 1303
    , 1311
    (D.C. Cir. 1991)--we will find no procedural violation.  EPA's action
    between proposal and promulgation, which served only to bolster
    the validity of the model by increasing the amount of data upon
    which it was based, certainly satisfies this standard.
    23 Cf. National Lime Ass'n v. EPA, 
    627 F.2d 416
    , 431 n.46 (D.C.
    Cir. 1980):  "[T]o be achievable, we think a uniform standard must
    be capable of being met under most adverse conditions which can
    reasonably be expected to recur and which are not or cannot be
    taken into account in determining the 'costs' of compliance."
    equipment, increased particulate emissions, auxiliary equip-
    ment design, and furnace configuration, all of which arguably
    could have an effect on the level of NOx emissions.  EPA
    responded to this concern by using the post-optimization
    period rather than the 52-day period for analysis, which it
    believed would "reasonably account for variation in operating
    conditions among Group 1 boilers."  EPA Response to Com-
    ments at 63.24  "The claim that there are various problems
    due to aging of equipment that have not yet been encoun-
    tered," the agency continued, "is speculative and unsupport-
    ed."  
    Id.
    While EPA's response could have been more extensive, it
    does not suggest that the agency's use of the regression
    models was arbitrary and capricious.  As we have previously
    noted, the party challenging the use of such a model "cannot
    undermine a regression analysis simply by pointing to varia-
    bles not taken into account that might conceivably have pulled
    the analysis's sting."  Koger v. Reno, 
    98 F.3d 631
    , 637 (D.C.
    Cir. 1996) (dicta).  See also Segar v. Smith, 
    738 F.2d 1249
    ,
    1277 (D.C. Cir. 1984) (noting that where there is no reason to
    conclude that the omitted variable correlates with the depen-
    dent variable, the omission will not affect the validity of the
    analysis).  Rather, that party must identify clearly major
    variables the omission of which renders the analysis suspect.
    This conclusion, derived from employment discrimination
    cases, holds equally true in this context, even more so be-
    cause of the deference due to an agency's scientific analysis.
    Neither the commenters before EPA nor Appalachian Power
    here before us has offered any data to support the assertion
    that additional factors not accounted for in EPA's regression
    analysis would have a significant effect on NOx emissions.
    The regression equations were constructed based on the data
    available or reasonably predictable at the time of the final
    rule;  to require EPA to take into account variables for which
    __________
    24 This document, containing EPA's responses to comments sub-
    mitted during the rulemaking process, was incorporated by refer-
    ence in the preamble to the final rule.   See 61 Fed. Reg. at 67,120.
    no data existed would be to require that it engage in precisely
    the type of arbitrary rulemaking the Act forbids.
    3. Application of the Equations to the Uncontrolled
    Emission Rates of Phase II Boilers
    The next step of EPA's analysis was to calculate, through
    the application of the regression equations developed to the
    uncontrolled rates of the Phase II boilers,25 the NOx emission
    rate each Phase II boiler could be expected to achieve
    through a low NOx burner retrofit.  Appalachian Power's
    primary challenge to this step of the analysis is that the
    results generated by the regression equation are faulty be-
    cause they do not include the uncertainty inherent in the
    calculation--in other words, the true reduction in NOx emis-
    sions associated with a particular retrofit might be somewhat
    greater than or less than the amount yielded by the regres-
    sion equation.  As a result, Appalachian Power contends,
    because EPA based its revised emission limits on what repre-
    sents the midpoint between the uncertainty boundaries, the
    predicted emission levels are based on levels achievable by
    only 50 percent of the Phase II boilers.
    Although Appalachian Power's assertion that the results
    are subject to some uncertainty is correct, we do not believe
    its complaint constitutes a telling critique of EPA's analysis.
    In any regression analysis, the line described by the regres-
    sion equation represents the best possible fit to the data;
    some points will necessarily be plotted above the line and
    some will fall below the line (except in the rare circumstance
    in which the line is a perfect fit to the data).  While each data
    point will be associated with some residual (the difference
    __________
    25 EPA noted in the preamble to the proposed rule that the Group
    1, Phase II database of uncontrolled emission rates contained
    information for only 69 percent of the Phase II population.  61 Fed.
    Reg. at 1449.  While a more complete database would have been
    preferable, EPA determined by comparison of boiler size and age
    that the Phase II database "adequately represents the entire Phase
    II population."  Id.  Appalachian Power has not suggested that this
    is not the case.
    between actual and fitted values), so long as this residual is
    within acceptable statistical limits, the fact that some data
    points necessarily fall below the line does not render the
    regression analysis invalid.  As we have noted in similar
    circumstances, "[t]hat the model does not fit every application
    perfectly is no criticism;  a model is meant to simplify reality
    in order to make it tractable."  Chemical Mfrs., 
    28 F.3d at 1264
    .  To invalidate a model simply because it does not
    perfectly fit every data point "would be to defeat the purpose
    of using a model."  
    Id. at 1265
    .  Appalachian Power does not
    suggest in its argument before us that the uncertainty sur-
    rounding the data points is statistically unacceptable, only
    that it exists.26  We would not deem that sufficient to label
    EPA's model arbitrary and capricious.
    This is not, certainly, like the case in Sierra Club, in which
    we rejected a 92 percent sulfur removal rate that was based
    solely on evidence that "only one commercial scale plant and
    one small pilot unit can almost but not quite meet the
    standard."  
    657 F.2d at 363
    .  In this case, 23 of 39 wall-fired
    boilers and 9 of 14 tangentially fired boilers in Group 1, Phase
    I can currently meet the revised limits.  61 Fed. Reg. at
    67,123-24 (Tables 4 and 5).  Because the statute requires only
    a determination that more effective low NOx burner technolo-
    gy is "available" for a class of boilers, the fact that, as
    __________
    26 One way to assess the "fit" of a particular model is by its R2
    value. R2 is a measure of the percentage of variation in the
    dependent variable that is accounted for by the explanatory varia-
    bles--here, the degree of reduction in emissions explained by the
    installation of low NOx burners. The range of values for R2 is
    between 0 and 1; the closer R2 is to 1, the more the change in the
    dependent variable is explained by the explanatory variables.
    Chemical Mfrs. Ass'n v. EPA, 
    870 F.2d. 177
    , 215 n.139 (5th Cir.
    1989). The R2 value for the wall-fired boiler equation was 0.731,
    while the R2 value for the tangentially fired boiler equation was
    0.707.  61 Fed. Reg. at 67,133.  While "[a]s a general rule, courts
    should be reluctant to rely solely on a statistic such as R2 to choose
    one model over another," Rubinfeld, supra, at 457; see also Segar,
    
    738 F.2d at
    1282 n.27, it cannot be said from these values that
    Appalachian Power claims, some individual boilers cannot
    currently meet the revised limits does not serve to invalidate
    the rule.
    4. Determination of the Limitation
    Finally, EPA used the rates resulting from the regression
    equations to determine "reasonably achievable emission limi-
    tation[s]" 27 for Phase II boilers.  61 Fed. Reg. at 67,130.
    Appalachian Power asserts, however, that the predicted con-
    trolled emission rates of many boilers are so close to the
    emissions limits that any error in the prediction would render
    these boilers in violation of the limits.  In addition, it claims
    that many utilities typically attempt to overcontrol emissions
    so that any fine tuning of the boiler will not bring the boiler
    over the emission limit.  If the rule deems this "overcon-
    trolled" emissions level achievable, Appalachian Power claims,
    utilities will be penalized for anticipating control difficulties.
    For both these reasons, Appalachian Power argues that EPA
    should have included a compliance margin in the NOx emis-
    sion limits.
    Again, we find this challenge insufficient to vacate the rule.
    The first reason that this is so is a statutory one:  The Act
    permits EPA to revise the emissions limitations upon a
    finding that "more effective low NOx burner technology is
    available."  42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2).  The fact that these
    boilers can achieve lower emission levels with low NOx burner
    technology--even if they depend on a cushion between those
    levels and the emissions limits--demonstrates that the statu-
    tory requirement has been satisfied.  Moreover, as EPA has
    noted in the preamble to the final rule, boiler owners who
    fear that tuning may send them over the allowable limits may
    use the alternative emission limitations ("AEL") and averag-
    ing options provided in the Act to ensure that their total NOx
    emissions from all affected units comply with EPA regula-
    __________
    EPA's use of this statistical model represented unreasoned deci-
    sionmaking.
    27 EPA defined a "reasonably achievable" limit as one that could
    be met by 85 to 90 percent of the relevant boiler population.  61
    Fed. Reg. at 67,136.
    tions.28  61 Fed. Reg. at 67,136.  Finally, we note, as EPA
    has pointed out, that the limit applies to a unit's average
    annual emission rate rather than to a monthly or a daily
    emission rate.  This means that a boiler may overemit on
    some days and underemit on others and still be deemed in
    compliance with its emission limit.  Given these various op-
    tions, there is no reason that EPA's failure to build a compli-
    ance margin into the limits themselves should render them
    arbitrary and capricious.  We therefore reject Appalachian
    Power's challenge on this front, as with its other substantive
    challenges to the Group 1, Phase II limits.
    Undaunted, Appalachian Power and intervenor National
    Mining Association ("NMA") mount an additional procedural
    challenge to the Group 1, Phase II limits:  namely, that EPA
    justified its revision of the rates based on public health and
    welfare concerns not authorized in the statute.29  See 61 Fed.
    Reg. at 67,160-61.  We do not find this argument persuasive.
    The statute provides that EPA "may revise" (emphasis add-
    ed) the limitations if it determines that more effective tech-
    nology is available.  We have noted that when a statute uses
    the permissive "may" rather than the mandatory "shall," "this
    choice of language suggests that Congress intends to confer
    some discretion on the agency, and that courts should accord-
    ingly show deference to the agency's determination.  Howev-
    er, such language does not mean the matter is committed
    __________
    28 Under the AEL provision, EPA may authorize an emission
    limitation less stringent than that promulgated if it determines that
    a particular boiler cannot meet the applicable limitation despite the
    installation and proper operation of the appropriate control technol-
    ogy.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(d) (1994).  Under the emissions averag-
    ing provision, the owner or operator of two or more affected units
    may petition to have the emission rates for those units averaged in
    order to meet the emissions limit.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(e) (1994).
    29 In an attempt to present evidence of the ongoing debate over
    whether environmental concerns warrant more stringent limits,
    NMA appended several items to its brief that were not before EPA
    during the rulemaking process.  Because these items are not part
    of the record on review, see 42 U.S.C. s 7607(d)(7)(A), we grant
    EPA's motion to strike the attachments.
    exclusively to agency discretion."  Dickson v. Secretary of
    Defense, 
    68 F.3d 1396
    , 1401 (D.C. Cir. 1995) (emphases in
    original).  Here, it is clear that EPA's discretion is not
    boundless because section 407(b)(2) requires that EPA deter-
    mine that more effective low NOx burner technology is avail-
    able before it is permitted to revise the Group 1 emission
    limits.  There is no indication, however, that Congress intend-
    ed to further limit EPA's discretion to revise the Group 1
    limits once such a determination has been made.  Our conclu-
    sion is supported by the fact that section 407(b)(2) provides
    that EPA "shall" establish the Group 2 emission limits by
    January 1, 1997, but "may" revise the Group 1 limits by the
    same date.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2).  The use of both
    words in the same statutory subsection--as well as the sec-
    tion's further reference to the applicability of "the revised
    emission limitations, if any" (emphasis added)--implies that
    Congress intended that EPA's discretion to revise the Group
    1 limits be broader than its discretion to set the Group 2
    limits.
    Ethyl Corp., relied on by Appalachian Power, is not to the
    contrary.  In Ethyl Corp., we considered a statute that
    provided that EPA, " 'upon application of any manufacturer of
    any fuel or fuel additive, may waive' " a prohibition against
    introducing certain fuel additives into commerce upon a find-
    ing that "the fuel additive does not cause or contribute to a
    failure of vehicles to meet emission standards."  
    51 F.3d at 1055, 1058
     (quoting 42 U.S.C. s 7545f(4) (1988 & Supp. V
    1993)).  The statute also provided that if EPA did not act
    either to grant or to deny a waiver application within 180
    days, the waiver would be treated as granted.  See 
    id. at 1059
    (quoting 42 U.S.C. s 7545(f)(4)) ("If the Administrator has
    not acted to grant or deny an application under this para-
    graph within one hundred and eighty days of receipt of such
    application, the waiver authorized by this paragraph shall be
    treated as granted.").  EPA found that Ethyl had established
    the factual finding but denied its waiver application for public
    health reasons.  We held that in the context of the entire
    statute, the statutory language stating that EPA "may waive"
    the prohibition after making the requisite factual determina-
    tion referred to EPA's discretion "to either act affirmatively,
    granting or denying a waiver, or not to act, and instead, to let
    the 180-day limit run."  
    Id.
      As a result, we held that once
    the factual standard was met, EPA's discretion extended only
    to the decision as to whether the waiver would occur through
    EPA's action or EPA's inaction.  Here, by contrast, there is
    no statutory language that provides a more limited definition
    of the phrase "may revise."  There is not, as in Ethyl Corp., a
    provision that once the requisite factual finding is made, the
    Group 1 limits will be revised even if EPA chooses not to act
    affirmatively to do so.  Section 407(b)(2) states simply that
    EPA "may revise" the Group 1 emission limits downward if it
    determines that more effective low NOx burner technology is
    available, limited only by the provision that the new emission
    limits, "if any," will not apply to boilers already regulated in
    Phase I.  Given the lack of alternative interpretations, we
    cannot conclude that the word "may" has the same effect as it
    did in Ethyl Corp., that is, that it gives EPA discretion only
    to choose the avenue by which revised emission limits will be
    promulgated.  Rather, we believe that "may revise" refers to
    EPA's discretion to revise the Group 1 limits at all even after
    the requisite finding on more effective low NOx burner tech-
    nology has been made.  For EPA to justify this decision in
    part by referring to the environmental concerns of the Act,
    see 61 Fed. Reg. at 67,119-20;  EPA Response to Comments
    at 281, was not arbitrary and capricious--indeed, it would
    have been arbitrary for EPA to offer no justification, and
    Appalachian Power has not suggested other considerations
    that would have been more consonant with the statutory
    framework.30
    __________
    30 In fact, it is difficult to see how Appalachian Power has been
    injured by EPA's consideration of public health and welfare con-
    cerns.  EPA referred to these factors only in determining whether
    it should, in its discretion, impose the limits that it had already
    determined were justified under the statutory criterion.  If EPA
    had believed that it could not take these considerations into account,
    the result would have been identical:  EPA would have imposed the
    same limits Appalachian Power now challenges.
    In any event, it is clear, contrary to Appalachian Power's
    argument, that EPA has sufficiently justified its decision to
    revise the Group 1 emission limits apart from environmental
    concerns.  Appalachian Power is correct that the burden is on
    EPA to justify the change from the 1995 emission limits,
    which the agency agreed were "aggressive," see 60 Fed. Reg.
    at 18,758-59, "[b]ut that justification need not consist of
    affirmative demonstration that the status quo is wrong; it
    may also consist of demonstration, on the basis of careful
    study, that there is no cause to believe that the status quo is
    right, so that the existing rule has no rational basis to support
    it."  Center for Auto Safety v. Peck, 
    751 F.2d 1336
    , 1349 (D.C.
    Cir. 1985).  As EPA has noted, the 1995 emission limits were
    based on data from periods only until 1992, while the current
    limits incorporated additional data from as recently as 1996.
    See 61 Fed. Reg. at 67,120; EPA Response to Comments at
    27-28.  This increase in available data, and the more strin-
    gent limits that analysis of that data generated, were suffi-
    cient for EPA to conclude that "there is no cause to believe
    that the status quo [i.e., the 1995 emission limits] is right."
    Because we find nothing irrational in that determination, we
    uphold the revised Group 1 NOx emission limits.
    B.  The Group 2 Emission Limits
    By contrast to the boilers in Group 1, the boilers in Group 2
    are not necessarily amenable to retrofitting with low NOx
    burners.  For this reason, Congress did not require EPA to
    base its Group 2 emission limits on that single control tech-
    nology.  Instead, in section 407(b)(2), Congress instructed
    EPA to base the Group 2 emission rates on
    the degree of reduction achievable through the retrofit
    application of the best system of continuous emission
    reduction, taking into account available technology, costs
    and energy and environmental impacts;  and which is
    comparable to the costs of nitrogen oxides controls set
    [for Group 1 boilers].
    42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2).  Appalachian Power challenges
    EPA's interpretation of this statutory language, an interpre-
    tation that informed the methodology the agency used to set
    the Group 2 emission limits.  In addition, even assuming the
    validity of that interpretation, Appalachian Power challenges
    the reasonableness of the methodology EPA employed.  We
    reject both challenges.
    1. Statutory Interpretation of Section 407(b)(2)
    EPA believes that the statutory provision is ambiguous,
    both in its specific words and in their grammatical arrange-
    ment.  Although ambiguous, EPA concludes that the best
    reading of the key statutory phrase, "comparable to the costs
    of," directs it to conduct a comparison of the cost-
    effectiveness of those control technologies available for Group
    2 boilers with the cost-effectiveness of the NOx controls
    required for Group 1 boilers (i.e., low NOx burner technolo-
    gy).  And it reasons that the provision as a whole instructs it
    to base the Group 2 limits on the degree of emissions
    reduction achievable by those Group 2 technologies that
    compare favorably in cost-effectiveness with low NOx burner
    technology.  For these purposes, EPA measures cost-
    effectiveness in dollars per ton of NOx removed ($/ton-
    removed).31
    Appalachian Power, by contrast, argues that the language
    of the statutory provision is unambiguous.  It contends that
    the language requires a comparison of the costs of producing
    electrical output using control technologies that can be used
    __________
    31 Appalachian Power charges that EPA's interpretation of "com-
    parable cost" changed between April 1995 and its promulgation of
    the final rule at issue here.  Appalachian Power notes that in April
    1995, EPA said that in selecting Group 2 controls it would "consider
    only those systems ... that ... are comparable in cost to the
    average cost in constant dollars of low NOx burner technology
    applied to Group 1 ... as determined in section 3 below."  60 Fed.
    Reg. at 18,776 (emphasis added).  The charge of change-of-position
    is unfair, however, because the first sentence of the "section 3"
    referred to in the quotation uses the same measurement of compa-
    rable cost EPA used in the final rule:  "The Administrator will use
    the procedures ... specified in this section to estimate the average
    cost-effectiveness (in annualized $/ton NOx removed) of installed low
    NOx burner technology applied to Group 1, Phase I boilers."  Id.
    in Group 2 boilers with the costs of producing electrical
    output using low NOx burner technology in Group 1 boilers.
    Those costs, it argues, should be measured in dollars per
    kilowatt ($/kw) and dollars per kilowatt hour ($/kwh).  In
    Appalachian Power's view, only those Group 2 technologies
    that compare favorably to low NOx burner technology by this
    measure may be considered in setting the Group 2 limits.
    Once again, Chevron's first step does not take us very far.
    The statute does not define the phrase "comparable to the
    costs of."  As discussed below, we agree with EPA that the
    words in the phrase are ambiguous, see 61 Fed. Reg. at
    67,138, and that the provision as a whole is grammatically
    awkward, see id. at 67,139.  And although the legislative
    history does not definitively address the meaning of the
    phrase, we also agree with EPA that that history is support-
    ive of the agency's interpretation.
    To begin, both sides agree that the meaning of the word
    "cost" is the "price paid for a thing."  App. Pwr. Br. at 33;
    EPA Br. at 34.  Moreover, both agree that, depending upon
    the context, that "thing" could be either the amount of
    pollution removed ($/ton-removed) or the amount of electrici-
    ty produced ($/kw or $/kwh).  Indeed, the word "costs" is
    used in two places in section 407(b)(2), and perhaps the best
    evidence of the essential ambiguity of the word is that each
    side adopts the other's definition for one of the two uses.
    Appalachian Power argues that $/ton-removed is the appro-
    priate way to define "costs" when they are "tak[en] into
    account" in determining "the best system of continuous emis-
    sion reduction."  App. Pwr. Br. at 32.  It insists, however,
    that only $/kw and $/kwh will do for the key phrase, "compa-
    rable to the costs of nitrogen oxides controls."  Id. at 33;
    App. Pwr. Reply Br. at 8.  EPA would use the two definitions
    in precisely the opposite places.  See EPA Br. at 35.
    Turning to the grammatical structure of the statutory
    provision, Appalachian Power argues that its definition for
    the key phrase is "plainly" required because of the context in
    which the phrase is used.  It contends that the antecedent of
    the word "which," in the phrase "which is comparable to the
    costs of nitrogen oxides controls," is the phrase "the best
    system of continuous emission reduction."  On this reading, it
    argues that EPA's job is to base emission limits on "the best
    system of continuous emission reduction ... which is compa-
    rable to the costs of nitrogen oxide controls."  When compar-
    ing the costs of one system of controls to those of another, it
    argues, the appropriate comparison is the cost of producing
    electrical power.
    Even if we were to adopt this view of the provision's
    grammar, it would be hard to conclude that Appalachian
    Power's definition is "plain."  The syntax for which Appala-
    chian Power argues simply does not resolve the question of
    "costs for what?"  Although one certainly could compare the
    "costs" of two systems by comparing their costs for producing
    electrical output, one could also reasonably compare their
    costs for removing tons of pollution.
    Moreover, we cannot agree that Appalachian Power's view
    of the provision's grammar is the only reasonable one.  As
    EPA notes, to read the phrase "best system" as the anteced-
    ent of the word "which" would require deletion of both the
    semicolon and the word "and" that separate the two parts of
    the statutory provision.  See 61 Fed. Reg. at 67,139.  In
    EPA's view, the better reading is that the antecedent of
    "which" is the phrase "the degree of reduction achievable."
    On this reading, EPA urges, Congress contemplated that the
    agency would base Group 2 limits
    on the degree of reduction (1) which can be reached
    through the best system of NOx reduction, taking into
    account available technology, costs and energy and envi-
    ronmental impacts[;] and (2) which is "comparable to the
    costs" of [low NOx burner] technology.
    EPA Br. at 6 (emphases added).  The only way to determine
    the degree of NOx reduction that can be achieved in Group 2
    boilers at costs comparable to the costs of low NOx burner
    technology, EPA argues, is to consider the relative costs of
    controls per ton of NOx removed.  EPA contends that when
    one focuses on "degree of reduction" as the antecedent,
    rather than on "best system," cost-effectiveness becomes the
    natural measurement to apply.
    EPA's grammatical construction is plausible.  But it is no
    more plausible than that of Appalachian Power because it,
    too, requires editing of the congressional text.  This time,
    rather than make a deletion, we would need to make an
    addition.  As noted in italics above, we would need to add the
    word "which," so that it appears twice rather than only once,
    in order to create a parallel construction that makes "the
    degree of reduction" the antecedent of both of the numbered
    phrases.  The need to make that addition, however, only
    highlights its absence in the actual text and confirms the
    essential ambiguity of section 407(b)(2)'s key phrase.
    Finding nothing dispositive in the statute's language or
    grammar, we look next to the legislative history for guidance.
    Appalachian Power argues that EPA's construction is incon-
    sistent with the purpose of section 407(b)(2), which, Appala-
    chian Power contends, was to ensure that the dollar "cost of
    controls" to owners of Group 2 boilers would not exceed the
    dollar "cost of controls" imposed on owners of Group 1
    boilers--i.e., not exceed the cost of low NOx burners.  We
    find little support in the legislative history, however, for
    Appalachian Power's view of the section's purpose.  To the
    contrary, although we cannot say that the legislative history
    is dispositive, it does contain considerable support for EPA's
    view that cost-effectiveness is an appropriate measure of
    comparison, even if it is not the only appropriate measure.
    Appalachian Power correctly notes that the language of
    section 407(b)(2) that directs EPA to set Group 2 emission
    limits, including the key phrase "comparable to the costs of,"
    comes from the Senate bill.  Compare 42 U.S.C.
    s 7651f(b)(2), with Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,
    S. 1630, 101st Cong. s 407(b)(2) (1990) (Senate bill), reprinted
    in Committee on Env't & Pub. Works, U.S. Senate, A Legisla-
    tive History of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, at
    4641 (1993) [hereinafter "Legislative History"].  By contrast,
    the House version of the bill prevented EPA from regulating
    certain Group 2 boilers unless EPA, inter alia, found meth-
    ods "available for reducing emissions from such boilers that
    are as cost effective as the application of low nitrogen oxides
    burner technology in the case of [Group 1] boilers."  Clean
    Air Act Amendments of 1990, S. 1630, 101st Cong. s 506(a)-
    (c) (1990) (House bill) (emphasis added), reprinted in Legisla-
    tive History, at 2277.  Appalachian Power contends that the
    conference committee's adoption of the Senate version--
    which did not use the phrase "cost effective" found in the
    House version--was tantamount to a rejection of the concept
    of cost-effectiveness.  We disagree.
    As a general matter, courts often have noted the difficulty
    of determining the significance of Congress's unexplained
    modification of language in earlier drafts of legislation, and
    have found that such modification does not necessarily indi-
    cate Congress's rejection of the substance of the earlier
    language.  See, e.g., Seatrain Shipbuilding Corp. v. Shell Oil
    Co., 
    444 U.S. 572
    , 594-95 (1980); Edison Elec. Inst. v. EPA, 
    2 F.3d 438
    , 451 (D.C. Cir. 1993).  The two phrases at issue
    here--"comparable to the costs of" and "cost effective"--are
    not incompatible.  It is possible that Congress regarded the
    two as synonymous, and that the conference committee sim-
    ply adopted the Senate's formulation over that of the House.
    Elements of the legislative history of the enacted version
    support this reading.  Perhaps most persuasive is Congress's
    direction, in the conference report on the final bill, that EPA
    should base emission limits for Group 2 boilers on "methods
    that are available for reducing emissions from such boilers
    that are as cost effective as the application of low nitrogen
    oxide burner technology to [Group 1] boilers."  H.R. Conf.
    Rep. No. 101-952, at 344 (emphasis added).  Moreover, the
    conference report incorporates a section of the Senate report
    on an earlier Senate bill.  That report equated the phrase
    "cost-effectiveness"--as measured by $/ton-removed--with
    the phrase "comparable to the cost of":
    Also favoring the cost-effectiveness of [section 407] is the
    development of new, lower-expense technologies....
    [The] decreasing cost for selective catalytic reduction
    (SCR) may lower the expense of initial NOx reductions
    even further.  For example, SCR has long been viewed
    as prohibitively expensive, but recent dramatic declines
    in cost have brought the per-ton-removed price of this
    technology down to as low as $600....  This is compara-
    ble to the cost of conventional control methods like low
    NOx burners....
    S. Rep. No. 101-228, at 332-33 (1989) (emphases added).  The
    Senate report also noted that with the NOx emission limits,
    the Senate "intended to compel utilities to do no more than
    make the most cost-effective reductions."  Id. at 332 (empha-
    sis added).32
    Appalachian Power's general point, that Congress was con-
    cerned that the "costs" for Group 2 boilers be comparable to
    the "costs" for Group 1 boilers, is plainly correct.  But there
    is no support for Appalachian Power's contention that Con-
    gress intended $/kwh to define the word in the second part of
    section 407(b)(2), while expecting $/ton-removed to define it in
    the first.  Congress simply did not make the fine distinctions
    that the parties make here between different methods of
    measuring "costs."  Indeed, when introducing the amend-
    ment that led directly to section 407(b)(2), various Senators
    referred interchangeably to the terms "cost-effectiveness,"
    "low cost," and "not unreasonably expensive."  See, e.g., 136
    Cong. Rec. 5045 (1990) (statement of Sen. Chafee); 136 Cong.
    Rec. 5045-46 (1990) (statement of Sen. Baucus); 136 Cong.
    Rec. 5046 (1990) (statement of Sen. Lott).  And during the
    floor debates on the conference report, Senator Burdick--
    conferee and Chair of the Senate Committee on Environment
    and Public Works--again equated "cost" and "cost-effective,"
    stating that the Group 2 limits were to be set
    only if the costs of such reductions are as cost effective
    as reductions from installation of low NOx burners on
    __________
    32 Although Senate Report No. 101-228 used the phrase "compa-
    rable to the cost of"--and used it synonymously with cost-
    effectiveness--the version of the Senate bill that was the subject of
    this report did not itself contain the phrase.  However, the confer-
    ence committee report on the final bill, which did contain the
    phrase, stated that:  "Section 407(b)(2) is intended to incorporate a
    portion of ... S. Report 101-228, that the NOx emission control
    technology requirements for [Group 2 boilers] are to reflect the
    relative difficulty of controlling NOx emissions from these boilers."
    H.R. Conf. Rep. No. 101-952, at 344.  While it is not entirely clear
    which portion of the Senate report the conference committee in-
    other types of boilers....  This provision is carefully
    worded to make cost considerations the determinative
    factor in consideration of NOx reductions from [Group 2]
    boilers.
    136 Cong. Rec. 36,029 (1990) (statement of Sen. Burdick).
    In sum, we draw the same conclusion regarding the phrase
    "comparable to the costs of" in the 1990 amendments as the
    Supreme Court drew regarding the term "stationary source"
    in the 1977 amendments to the Act:  neither the statutory
    language nor the legislative history is dispositive of the
    meaning of the term.  See Chevron, 
    467 U.S. at 861-62
    .
    Moving then to Chevron's second step, we must consider
    whether EPA's decision to interpret the statute as contem-
    plating a comparison of cost-effectiveness is reasonable.  In
    light of the above discussion, there is little left to say.  Given
    the ambiguous syntax and the multiple meanings that both
    parties concede may be assigned to the word "costs," we
    cannot conclude that EPA's decision to use $/ton-removed as
    the measurement of costs is unreasonable.  Moreover, as our
    review of the legislative history suggests, although EPA's
    interpretation may not be required by that history, it surely
    is consistent with and supported by it.  We thus conclude that
    EPA's construction of section 407(b)(2) is a permissible one.
    2. Challenges to EPA's Methodology for Determining
    Emission Limits 33
    Having concluded that it would base Group 2 emission
    limits on the capabilities of those Group 2 control technologies
    comparable in cost-effectiveness to low NOx burner technolo-
    gy, EPA developed a test for making such comparisons.
    EPA found that it could not rely on a comparison of median
    or mean costs alone, because the $/ton-removed cost for a
    given control technology, including low NOx burners, varied
    widely from boiler to boiler even within the same category of
    boiler, and had different cost ranges for different categories
    __________
    tended to incorporate, Senate Report 101-228's entire discussion of
    the "Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction Program" spans less
    than two pages and includes the quotations set forth in the text.
    33 We discuss here only those elements of EPA's methodology
    relevant to the challenges made by Appalachian Power and interve-
    nor NMA.
    of boilers.  See 61 Fed. Reg. at 67,138, 67,143 (Table 12).
    For this reason, EPA determined that it needed a more
    comprehensive statistical approach.  See id. at 67,138.
    First, EPA excluded the cost-effectiveness figures for boil-
    ers in the top and bottom 10 percent of cost-effectiveness, so
    that neither the lowest nor the highest cost projects would
    skew the comparison.  See id. at 67,143 (Table 13); see also
    EPA Response to Comments at 91-92 (Joint Appendix
    ("J.A.") 216-17).34  Next, EPA determined that the
    cost-effectiveness of using a given type of Group 2 control
    technology for a specific category of Group 2 boiler (a
    technology/category combination) was comparable to the
    cost-effectiveness of using low NOx burners in Group 1 boil-
    ers, if the median $/ton-removed cost of that Group 2
    technology/category combination:  (1) did not exceed by more
    than one-third the overall median $/ton-removed cost for low
    NOx burners in Group 1 boilers, and (2) did not exceed the
    individual medians for both of the categories of Group 1
    boilers.35  See id. at 67,138, 67,143.  Finally, EPA required
    __________
    34 Appalachian Power asserts that EPA excluded only the high
    cost projects.  The indicated record citations make clear that this
    assertion is incorrect.
    35 The effect of this latter prong was to require that the median
    $/ton-removed cost for any Group 2 technology/category combina-
    tion not exceed the median $/ton-removed cost of whichever of the
    two Group 1 boiler categories had the higher median cost.  See 61
    Fed. Reg. at 67,138; EPA Br. at 43 n.22.  At various places, both
    EPA and Appalachian Power misstate this prong and its conse-
    quences, effectively reading it as requiring that the median $/ton-
    removed cost for any Group 2 technology/category combination not
    exceed the median for either category of Group 1 boilers--hence
    that it be less than the lower of the two categories.  See 61 Fed.
    Reg. at 67,138;  App. Pwr. Br. at 36, 39.  EPA acknowledges its
    misstatement, but notes that it was not used in the calculation of
    the actual Group 2 emission limits.  See EPA Br. at 43 n.22;  61
    Fed. Reg. at 67,143.  Appalachian Power's misreading explains its
    incorrect contention that on the basis of EPA's own methodology
    the costs for two categories of Group 2 boilers (cyclones and wet
    bottom, wall-fired) are not comparable to the costs for Group 1.
    that the 90th percentile of the $/ton-removed cost range for
    Group 2 technology/category combinations not exceed the
    90th percentile of the $/ton-removed cost range for low NOx
    burners in Group 1 boilers.  See id. at 67,138.
    Using this cost-comparison test and further calculations,
    EPA selected appropriate control technologies and an emis-
    sion limit for each of the four statutory categories of Group 2
    boilers, see 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2)(A)-(D) (wet bottom wall-
    fired boilers; cyclones; units applying cell burner technology;
    and "all other types of utility boilers").  It concluded that it
    could not set emission limits at all for two types of boilers in
    the catch-all fourth category because no control technology
    met the comparability test.  See id. at 67,114.  And it con-
    cluded that one kind of control technology was not cost-
    effective for two types of boilers, and so could not be used in
    setting emission limits for those boilers.  See id. at 67,143.
    Appalachian Power does not propose an alternative to the
    methodology EPA employed for setting the Group 2 emission
    limits.  Instead, it and intervenor NMA charge that various
    elements of EPA's methodology are arbitrary and capricious,
    are unsupported by the record, or were used without follow-
    ing the Act's procedural requirements, and that we therefore
    must overturn the emission limits generated by EPA's meth-
    odology.  Although we have considered and find all of peti-
    tioners' and intervenor's myriad arguments in this area lack-
    ing in merit, we discuss below only the more important of
    them.
    a. Significance of Cost as a Factor in Selection of Con-
    trols.  "Even assuming that Congress required EPA to com-
    pare the cost-of-tons reduced," Appalachian Power argues,
    EPA's comparison "is unlawful because it does not make cost
    a significant, much less a determinative factor."  App. Pwr.
    Br. at 37.  Appalachian Power contends that this is the result
    of EPA's choice of methodology, because when one uses a
    fraction that divides costs by tons-removed, the fraction is
    "driven" by the denominator.  Id. at 37-38.  The proof that
    this is so assertedly is in the results that EPA's comparison
    test produces:  the "costs" of the controls EPA has selected
    for Group 2, Appalachian Power claims, are "three to seven
    times higher than the costs of [low-NOx] burners."  Id. at 37-
    38 & n.119.
    On its face, this is a difficult argument to understand.  The
    key is to recognize that the argument actually mischaracter-
    izes itself:  it does not assume, as it claims, that the relevant
    "costs" are $/ton-removed, but rather assumes they are
    $/kwh.  When Appalachian Power says the "costs" of the
    Group 2 controls are three to seven times the costs of Group
    1 low NOx burners, it can say so only by measuring those
    costs by $/kwh--which is what it does.  See id. at 38 n.119.
    Hence, in this argument Appalachian Power does not assume
    the validity of the measurement EPA has chosen, but simply
    relitigates, in different terms, the same argument we have
    rejected above.
    b. Weight Given to Smaller Boilers.  Appalachian Power
    contends that EPA manipulated its methodology to give
    unfair weight in Group 1 to smaller, underutilized boilers that
    are not cost-effective to retrofit with any controls, while
    giving more weight in Group 2 to larger, higher-utilized, and
    therefore more cost-effective boilers.  This unfair comparison
    was made, Appalachian Power asserts, in order to ensure that
    high $/ton-removed Group 2 technologies would still be com-
    parable to Group 1 controls.
    We see no evidence of this manipulation.  Instead, as we
    have noted, EPA made a number of statistical adjustments,
    and in particular excluded figures for boilers in the top and
    bottom 10th percentiles, precisely to ensure that neither the
    lowest nor the highest cost projects skewed the comparison.
    See EPA Response to Comments at 91-92 (J.A. 216-17).  The
    agency's decisions not to impose limits on two types of Group
    2 boilers because those boilers did not pass its cost-
    comparability test, and to exclude from consideration one
    kind of Group 2 control technology because it was too costly
    for two types of Group 2 boilers, are further evidence that
    EPA did not intentionally manipulate its methodology in
    order to ensure that expensive Group 2 controls would appear
    cost-effective.36
    c. Calculation of Cost-Effectiveness of Low-NOx Burners.
    Appalachian Power argues that EPA artificially inflated the
    costs of Group 1 controls, as compared to Group 2 controls,
    by not excluding from its database "a few extraordinarily
    high-cost" boilers in one of the two Group 1 categories
    (tangentially fired boilers).  It contends that a total of ten
    specific Group 1 units (located at the Conemaugh, Shawville,
    and Joppa power plants) actually employ both low NOx
    burners (the only required Group 1 technology) and technolo-
    gy "beyond low NOx burners."  It also contends that in
    calculating the costs of these units, EPA arbitrarily attributed
    most of the overall project costs to the low NOx burners.
    Similarly, Appalachian Power argues that another two Group
    1 units were "high-cost outliers" that should have been ex-
    cluded from the database because they use a "novel burner"
    with extraordinarily high costs.
    We have carefully considered the record with respect to
    these charges, but find little with which to work.  Some of
    Appalachian Power's arguments appear to be incorrect factu-
    ally.  The allocation of costs between low NOx burners and
    additional technology in some of the questioned units, for
    __________
    36 Appalachian Power also argues that for boilers of similar size
    and utilization, the $/ton-removed costs for two kinds of Group 2
    controls are higher than the $/ton-removed costs for Group 1
    controls.  As EPA replies, however, the statute does not require
    that "comparability" be established on a size-of-boiler basis.  The
    statistical parameters set by EPA and noted above reflect a reason-
    able attempt by the agency to account for the range of costs of
    different control technologies operating in different sizes and cate-
    gories of boilers.
    example, was based on estimates provided by the utilities
    themselves.  See J.A. 1828-68; EPA Response to Comments
    at 91 (J.A. 216).  Although the allocation in the other units
    was based on EPA's own estimates, see EPA Response to
    Comments at 90-91 (J.A. 215-16), Appalachian Power does
    not explain the manner in which it was "arbitrary."  And
    there is simply a factual dispute between Appalachian Power
    and EPA as to whether the burners in the remaining two
    units are "novel" or not.  Compare App. Pwr. Br. at 41, with
    EPA Response to Comments at 352-53, 358-59 (J.A. 475-76,
    481-82).  We will not substitute our judgment for EPA's in
    this highly technical area.  See Troy Corp. v. Browner, 
    120 F.3d 277
    , 283 (D.C. Cir. 1997).
    d. Calculation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Gas Reburn.
    On the other side of the equation, Appalachian Power argues
    that EPA artificially depressed the cost of one particular
    Group 2 control technology--gas reburn--by using national
    rather than regional projections of an important element of
    its cost, namely the price of natural gas.  It also contends
    that gas reburn is not truly an "available" technology, be-
    cause it has been used only in two small boilers in the United
    States.  Hence, Appalachian Power contends, EPA's predic-
    tions of the cost of this Group 2 technology are arbitrary.
    The statute bars us from considering the first argument
    because it was not raised with the agency during the rule-
    making.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7607(d)(7)(B); EPA Br. at 50-51.
    The second argument is answered adequately by EPA's reli-
    ance on experience with gas reburn in boilers outside the
    United States, see EPA Response to Comments at 206-07
    (J.A. 330-31); J.A. 1904-06.  Nothing in the statute bars
    EPA from considering such data.
    e. Calculation of Cost-Effectiveness of Selective Catalytic
    Reduction.  Appalachian Power also launches an attack on
    the methodology used to determine the cost-effectiveness of
    another Group 2 technology, selective catalytic reduction
    ("SCR").  In order to assess the cost-effectiveness of SCR,
    EPA had to determine the predicted use of boilers in the year
    2000.  To do this, it employed a statistical model known as
    the Integrated Planning Model ("IPM") and conducted a
    number of runs of the model using varying assumptions.  As
    we have noted in Part II.A above, our consideration of EPA's
    use of computer models proceeds with considerable deference
    to the agency's expertise.  See American Iron & Steel Inst.,
    
    115 F.3d at 1005
    ; Chemical Mfrs. Ass'n, 
    28 F.3d at 1264-65
    .
    Appalachian Power contends that EPA did not give suffi-
    ciently early notice of the assumptions it would use in the
    IPM, nor of the results of a June 1996 run of the model in
    which SCR proved less cost-effective than in the April run
    that was used in developing the final rule.  The IPM's
    predictions for boiler utilization in the year 2000, as well as
    the final assumptions of the model and the results of the
    contested June 1996 modeling run, were not placed in the
    rulemaking docket until November 22, 1996--two and a half
    weeks before EPA signed the final rule on December 10,
    1996.37  Although the two-and-a-half week notice period is
    certainly short, under the circumstances of this rulemaking
    discussed below, we find it adequate.  Cf. Natural Resources
    Defense Council v. Thomas, Inc., 
    838 F.2d 1224
    , 1242-43
    (D.C. Cir. 1988) (finding two-week comment period adequate).
    In its January 1996 proposed rule, EPA initially announced
    that it would use a model called the Coal and Electric
    Utilities Model ("CEUM") to predict boiler utilization in the
    year 2000.  However, commenters, including some of the
    utilities petitioning here, submitted criticisms of the CEUM
    while noting advantages of the IPM.  See J.A. 1409, 1416-17;
    61 Fed. Reg. at 67,143;  EPA Response to Comments at 94-
    100, 354-58 (J.A. 219-25, 477-81).  EPA concluded that it
    should use the IPM instead because it had been used by
    __________
    37 Although Appalachian Power initially contended that it did not
    learn this information until December 1996, at oral argument its
    counsel did not contest that it had the information as of November
    22, 1996.
    numerous major utilities, again including some petitioning
    here, for their own planning purposes, see EPA Response to
    Comments at 95 (J.A. 220).  In April 1996, at a public forum
    on a related regulatory initiative, EPA provided documenta-
    tion of how the model was used and of actual model runs, and
    requested comments.  Again, commenters, including some
    petitioning here, made submissions and the agency made
    further adjustments to the model's assumptions.  In April,
    the agency conducted a run of the model incorporating these
    changes and then used it to formulate the final rule at issue
    here.  Subsequently, EPA made additional changes in the
    model's assumptions, and then reran the model in June. See
    id. at 95-96, 354 (J.A. 220-21, 477).  In September, EPA met
    again on the related initiative with some of the petitioners
    here, and further explained the IPM.  See id. at 354 (J.A.
    477).  And on November 22, the IPM's final assumptions and
    predictions, as well as the results of the contested June 1996
    modeling run, were placed in the rulemaking docket.
    Viewed in this context, as part of a series of refinements in
    the agency's model in response to the suggestions of commen-
    ters, we conclude that the relatively short period available for
    further submissions at the end of the rulemaking was reason-
    able.  The agency's use of the IPM in these circumstances
    constituted a "logical outgrowth" of its original proposal.  See
    Fertilizer Inst., 
    935 F.2d at 1311
    .  Hence, we find no proce-
    dural violation.
    Moreover, as we have previously noted, even if the late
    filing of the final IPM materials had constituted procedural
    error, we may invalidate a Clean Air Act rule for procedural
    errors "only if the errors were so serious and related to
    matters of such central relevance to the rule that there is a
    substantial likelihood that the rule would have been signifi-
    cantly changed if such errors had not been made."  42 U.S.C.
    s 7607(d)(8).  Yet, Appalachian Power does not even express-
    ly make this assertion.  We interpret its point about the June
    1996 run as implying that if Appalachian Power had known
    about it earlier, it would have called it to EPA's attention, and
    that as a consequence EPA would not have used SCR in
    determining the Group 2 rates.  The flaw in this argument is
    that EPA did not need Appalachian Power's help to learn of
    the results of its own modeling run.  Nor did EPA ignore
    those results.  EPA conducted a sensitivity analysis of the
    differences between the April and June runs, in order to
    determine whether the differences were sufficiently signifi-
    cant to affect the final rule.  See EPA Response to Comments
    354-55 (J.A. 477-78).  Based on that analysis, EPA concluded
    that the April run provided a reasonable basis for establishing
    the limits in the final rule, and that using the June run would
    not significantly change those limits.  See id. at 357 (J.A.
    480).  Although EPA set out its sensitivity analysis in detail
    in its final Response to Comments, see id. at 355-360 (J.A.
    478-83), Appalachian Power has not attempted to identify any
    defect in that analysis, and hence cannot establish that earlier
    docketing of the June run would have led to a significant
    change in the final rule.
    In addition to attacking the IPM, Appalachian Power also
    challenges what it characterizes as "other assumptions" relat-
    ing to SCR.  Again, Appalachian Power gives us little with
    which to work.  It lists a number of asserted flaws in EPA's
    methodology which, it says, are merely "examples" of the
    agency's bias in favor of this technology.  But EPA adequate-
    ly responded to each of these challenges during the rulemak-
    ing,38 and Appalachian Power provides no basis for question-
    __________
    38 Appalachian Power argues, "for example," that EPA's model
    excluded from the calculation of Group 2 costs the cost of so-called
    "scope adders"--other work completed at the same time as the
    installation of NOx control equipment.  The exclusion was appropri-
    ate, however, because scope adders are usually not part of the NOx
    reduction effort, and, in any event, these costs were excluded from
    the calculation of both Group 2 and Group 1 costs.  See 61 Fed.
    Reg. at 67,144-45, 67,147; EPA Response to Comments at 172-74
    (J.A. 296-98).  Appalachian Power also contends that rather than
    obtain site-specific cost information from the electrical utilities,
    EPA's model used a statistical technique known as "power law
    scaling" to estimate the capital costs for larger boilers based on
    actual data from smaller boilers in the same category.  But the
    technique, which also is employed by electric utilities, see EPA
    Response to Comments at 135-37, 351-52 (J.A. 259-261, 474-75);
    J.A. 680-84, is reasonable because EPA used it where the data
    offered by the utilities consisted of estimates that were insufficient-
    ly supported, see 61 Fed. Reg. at 67,148-49;  EPA Response to
    ing the agency's assumptions regarding SCR in any larger
    sense.
    Finally, Appalachian Power contends that EPA did not
    select SCR or gas reburn as a basis for the emission limit for
    wet bottom boilers until the announcement of the final rule.
    Although Appalachian Power is correct that SCR and gas
    reburn were not specifically proposed for wet bottom boilers,
    the agency's proposed rule did solicit comments regarding the
    use of both technologies in such boilers.  See 61 Fed. Reg. at
    1464, 1474 (gas reburn); id. at 1457 (SCR).  Commenters
    clearly understood that these technologies were under consid-
    eration, as the agency received comments on them from
    several sources, see J.A. 905-09, 1063-81; 61 Fed. Reg. at
    67,150-51; EPA Response to Comments at 232-36, 360 (J.A.
    356-60, 483), including some of the utilities petitioning here,
    see J.A. 989-91, 1004-116, 1169-72.  As we have noted, this
    kind of agency modification of a proposed rule, in response to
    the comments it solicited and received on alternative possibili-
    ties, complies with the requirements of administrative law.
    See Natural Resources Defense Council, 
    838 F.2d at 1242
    ;
    Small Refiner Lead Phase-Down Task Force v. EPA, 
    705 F.2d 506
    , 547 (D.C. Cir. 1983).
    f. Subcategorization of Boiler Types.  Appalachian Power
    challenges EPA's failure to adopt a proposal to regulate as
    separate subcategories, or to exclude from regulation alto-
    gether, those Group 1 and 2 boilers where retrofitting alleg-
    edly could damage the units or only be accomplished at high
    cost.  As EPA notes, however, the statute establishes specific
    categories of boilers (two Group 1 categories and four Group
    2 categories, see supra notes 4-5), and does not contemplate
    further subcategorization or boiler-by-boiler treatment.  EPA
    states that it has no evidence to support the claim that boilers
    __________
    Comments at 174-87 (J.A. 298-311).  As yet another "example,"
    Appalachian Power contends that EPA assumed a price for ammo-
    nia, consumed in large quantities during the SCR process, that
    appears lower than the price reported by the utilities.  EPA
    correctly points out that the disparity is due to the fact that EPA's
    price was expressed in 1990 dollars.  See EPA Response to Com-
    ments at 176-77, 185 (J.A. 300-01, 309).
    in Appalachian Power's proposed subcategories cannot in
    general achieve the same emission rates as other boilers in
    the statutory categories, see EPA Response to Comments at
    67 (J.A. 192), and Appalachian Power has offered nothing to
    justify disturbing this agency conclusion.  EPA further notes
    that its statistical methodology took account of the range of
    cost-effectiveness of boilers within categories, and that the
    remedy for the owner of an individual unit that cannot
    achieve category limits is to request an alternative emission
    limit under 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(d), or to seek permission to
    average emissions from several units under 42 U.S.C.
    s 7651f(e).  See EPA Response to Comments 67, 254 (J.A.
    192, 378).  EPA's response to this proposal is reasonable, and
    its rejection of the proposal is neither arbitrary nor capri-
    cious.
    g. Consideration of Environmental Impacts in Setting
    Limits.  Finally, intervenor NMA argues that EPA improp-
    erly relied on an irrelevant factor--the environmental impacts
    of the rule--when setting the NOx emission limits for Group 2
    boilers.  This argument is answered, however, by the plain
    language of section 407(b)(2), which requires EPA to consider
    environmental impacts.  See 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2) (direct-
    ing EPA to set emission limits and "base such rates on the
    degree of reduction achievable through the retrofit applica-
    tion of the best system of continuous emission reduction,
    taking into account available technology, costs and energy
    and environmental impacts ....") (emphasis added).39
    __________
    39 NMA also argued that "the Coal Industry did not know until
    the final rule" that EPA intended to consider the adverse environ-
    mental effects of NOx in setting emission rates.  NMA Br. at 13.
    In fact, EPA gave notice in its initial proposal that it intended to do
    so.  See 61 Fed. Reg. at 1442, 1453-55.  Nor do we find support for
    NMA's brief, unfleshed-out allegation that even if EPA were enti-
    tled to consider environmental impacts, it did so unreasonably.  See
    NMA Br. at 9-10.  EPA moved to strike NMA's entire argument
    regarding the consideration of environmental factors in setting
    Group 2 limits, on the ground that no petitioner had raised it.
    Although the question is close, there is much to be said for EPA's
    contention that intervenor NMA impermissibly has enlarged the
    issues before this court.  See, e.g., Public Serv. Co. of Colo. v.
    In sum, finding none of petitioners' challenges to the Group
    2 emission limits persuasive, we uphold the limits EPA estab-
    lished for boilers in that Group.
    C.  The Compliance Deadline
    Appalachian Power also challenges EPA's assertion that,
    pursuant to section 407(a), the new emission limits must be
    met by January 1, 2000.  Section 407(a) provides:
    On the date that a coal-fired utility unit becomes an
    affected unit pursuant to sections 7651c [Phase I sulfur
    dioxide requirements], 7651d [Phase II sulfur dioxide
    requirements], [or] 7651h [repowered sources] of this
    title, or on the date a unit subject to the provisions of
    section 7651c(d) or 7651h(b) of this title, must meet the
    SO2 reduction requirements, each such unit shall become
    an affected unit for purposes of this section and shall be
    subject to the emission limitations for nitrogen oxides set
    forth herein.
    42 U.S.C. s 7651f(a).  Because a Phase I "affected unit"
    (defined as "a unit that is subject to emission reduction
    requirements or limitations under this subchapter," 42 U.S.C.
    s 7651a(2) (1994)) must come into compliance with sulfur
    dioxide emissions limits by January 1, 1995, and because a
    Phase II affected unit must comply by January 1, 2000, EPA
    stated in the final rule that the deadline for compliance with
    the new NOx emission limits for Group 1, Phase II boilers and
    for Group 2 boilers would be January 1, 2000.  See 61 Fed.
    Reg. at 67,154.  Appalachian Power argues, however, that
    section 407(a) does not require such a deadline--that, in fact,
    the only statutory deadline is that included in the last sen-
    tence of section 407(b)(1), which states that "[a]fter January
    1, 1995, it shall be unlawful" for Group 1, Phase I boilers to
    emit NOx in excess of the established emission rates.  See 42
    U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(1).  As a result, Appalachian Power argues,
    __________
    FERC, 
    91 F.3d 1478
    , 1488 n.3 (D.C. Cir. 1996), cert. denied sub
    nom. Amoco Prod. Co. v. Public Serv. Co. of Colo., 
    117 S. Ct. 1723
    (1997); Time Warner Entertainment Co. v. FCC, 
    56 F.3d 151
    , 202
    (D.C. Cir. 1995), cert. denied, 
    116 S. Ct. 911
     (1996).  However, since
    EPA easily prevails on the merits of NMA's argument, we see no
    harm to EPA in denying its motion.
    EPA must otherwise justify its decision to establish a compli-
    ance deadline of January 1, 2000.
    Before reaching the merits of this argument, we must first
    dispose of a procedural issue.  Appalachian Power's comment
    on the compliance deadline during the notice-and-comment
    period argued that, unlike other statutory sections, section
    407(b)(2) contains no date after which "it shall be unlawful" to
    exceed the emission limitations set under the section.  Appa-
    lachian Power's current argument points out the anomaly of
    construing the "plain language" of the statute as establishing
    a compliance date for Group 2, Phase I boilers given that
    these boilers become "affected units" in 1995, while the Group
    2 limits are not required to be promulgated until 1997.  EPA
    seizes on the difference between these two challenges to
    argue that because Appalachian Power failed to raise its
    current argument before EPA during the notice-and-
    comment period, its challenge should be considered waived.
    We disagree.  It is true that under the Act, only an objection
    to a rule or procedure that was raised with "reasonable
    specificity" during the comment period may be raised during
    judicial review.  42 U.S.C. s 7607(d)(7)(B).  But the word
    "reasonable" cannot be read out of the statute in favor of a
    hair-splitting approach.  In other words, the Act does not
    require that precisely the same argument that was made
    before the agency be rehearsed again, word for word, on
    judicial review.  The purpose of the exhaustion requirement
    is to ensure that the agency is given the first opportunity to
    bring its expertise to bear on the resolution of a challenge to
    a rule.  See, e.g., Fertilizer Inst., 
    935 F.2d at
    1312-13 (citing
    Cutler v. Hayes, 
    818 F.2d 879
    , 890-91 (D.C. Cir. 1987))
    (discussing general exhaustion requirement).  So long as
    EPA has considered the particular challenge raised on judi-
    cial review, it is of no import whether that challenge is
    phrased in exactly the same way in each forum.  Appalachian
    Power's argument regarding the compliance deadline during
    the comment period--in substance, if not in form, the same
    objection now raised--was sufficient to put EPA on notice of
    a challenge to its claim that it was bound by the statute in
    setting the compliance date for the Group 1, Phase II boilers
    and the Group 2 boilers at January 1, 2000.
    EPA's reliance on Ohio v. EPA, 
    997 F.2d 1520
     (D.C. Cir.
    1993), is therefore unavailing.  In that case, we rejected the
    petitioners' contention that a comment challenging EPA's
    definition of "onsite" as limited to contiguous areas was
    sufficient to raise a challenge to EPA's proposed treatment of
    noncontiguous but reasonably related facilities as a single
    site, noting that "this minimal reference to the contiguity
    issue is so tangential to the principal thrust of the comment
    that it cannot fairly be said to have been presented to EPA
    for resolution."  
    Id. at 1550
    .  This case is distinguishable
    from Ohio, in which two distinct actions were challenged:
    EPA's treatment of contiguous areas as "onsite" and EPA's
    treatment of reasonably related noncontiguous areas as a
    single site.  Here, both challenges were directed at a single
    claim:  that EPA had no discretion in setting the compliance
    date.
    Even if Appalachian Power could be deemed not to have
    raised this argument before the agency, we have noted that
    EPA "retains a duty to examine key assumptions as part of
    its affirmative 'burden of promulgating and explaining a non-
    arbitrary, non-capricious rule' " and therefore that "EPA
    must justify that assumption even if no one objects to it
    during the comment period."  Small Ref. Lead Phase-Down
    Task Force, 
    705 F.2d at 534-35
     (quoting National Lime, 
    627 F.2d at 433
    ).  Because the compliance date for a particular
    rule would almost certainly be included with these "key
    assumptions," we are not prohibited from considering Appala-
    chian Power's argument.
    Given that the issue is properly before us, we go on to
    decide whether EPA's conclusion that the statute requires a
    January 1, 2000, compliance date is valid.  EPA argues that
    because Phase II units must meet the SO2 requirements by
    January 1, 2000 (see 42 U.S.C. s 7651d(a)), section 407(a), by
    using the SO2 deadline as the deadline for NOx compliance,
    also requires a deadline of January 1, 2000.  Appalachian
    Power challenges this conclusion, arguing that pursuant to
    this logic, the compliance date for Group 2, Phase I boilers
    would be January 1, 1995 (the date on which they became
    "affected units" for SO2), a date prior to the promulgation of
    the emission limits at issue.  Rather, Appalachian Power
    argues, section 407(a) identifies which units are subject to the
    NOx program, not when they must comply with regulations
    issued under the section.  Because Congress set a compliance
    date of January 1, 1995, for Group 1, Phase I boilers and did
    not set any other deadlines in the section, Appalachian Power
    argues that Congress left it to EPA's discretion to set a
    compliance date for the remaining boilers.
    We are presented with a question of statutory interpreta-
    tion, so once again we conduct a Chevron analysis to deter-
    mine, first, whether Congress has spoken on the issue of the
    compliance deadline for Group 1, Phase II units and Group 2
    units, and, second, if Congress has not so spoken, whether
    EPA's selection of a January 1, 2000, deadline was a reason-
    able interpretation of the statutory scheme.
    A careful reading of section 407 leads us to the conclusion
    that Congress did not include a specific compliance date for
    NOx emission limits promulgated under section 407(b)(2).
    While section 407(a) does state that the date that a boiler
    becomes "subject to" any NOx limitations is the same date
    that it becomes an affected unit for purposes of SO2 emission
    limitations--January 1, 1995, for Phase I units and January 1,
    2000, for Phase II units--we do not interpret the phrase
    "subject to" to mean "must be in compliance with."  To do so
    would render the last sentence of section 407(b)(1), which
    establishes a compliance date of January 1, 1995, for Group 1,
    Phase I boilers, superfluous.  Because we should refrain from
    interpreting a statutory provision in a way that creates
    surplusage, see, e.g., Motor and Equipment Mfrs. Ass'n, Inc.
    v. EPA, 
    627 F.2d 1095
    , 1108 (D.C. Cir. 1979), we conclude
    that the inclusion of a specific compliance date in section
    407(b)(1) means that the phrase "subject to" in section 407(a)
    cannot refer to compliance.  (This conclusion does not, howev-
    er, render the phrase meaningless; rather, it may mean
    simply that each boiler becomes subject to regulation under
    the NOx program at the same time it becomes subject to the
    SO2 program; once subject to regulation, a boiler is required
    to meet the compliance date of any NOx emission limits
    promulgated.)  As a result, because section 407(b)(2) does not
    specify a compliance date, it would appear that Congress did
    not intend to set a compliance date for these boilers.  This
    conclusion is bolstered by the fact that reading a compliance
    date into section 407(a) would, as Appalachian Power points
    out, result in the requirement that Group 2, Phase I boilers
    comply in 1995 with a regulation not promulgated until 1997.
    We cannot conclude that Congress desired such an absurd
    result.
    Because our reading of the statute reveals a gap to be filled
    by EPA, we next determine, under the second step of the
    Chevron analysis, whether EPA's resolution--designating
    January 1, 2000, as the compliance date for both Group 1,
    Phase II boilers and all Group 2 boilers--is reasonable.40  We
    believe that it is.  A compliance date of January 1, 2000,
    provides utilities with at least two years of lead time to
    prepare for compliance, a period at least twice as long as the
    preparation time for the 1995 emission limits and one that
    "reflects the relative difficulty of controlling NOx for [Group
    __________
    40 As Appalachian Power notes, we have previously held that
    "when an agency's decision rests on a supposed mandate by Con-
    gress and the agency is later determined to be wrong as to the
    mandate, a remand may be required for it to exercise its discretion
    on the issue."  General Motors Corp. v. National Highway Traffic
    Safety Admin., 
    898 F.2d 165
    , 171 (D.C. Cir. 1990).  In this case,
    however, remand would be an exercise in futility because EPA has
    already stated in the preamble to the final rule that even if the
    compliance-date provisions are considered to be ambiguous, "the
    Agency maintains that its interpretation is reasonable."  61 Fed.
    Reg. at 67,155 n.24.  It is evident that EPA considered environmen-
    tal concerns as an alternative reason for setting the compliance
    deadline at January 1, 2000.  See, e.g., EPA Response to Comments
    at 270 (delaying compliance beyond January 1, 2000, would cause
    "unnecessary environmental harm").  Thus, this is not a case in
    which EPA has "stopped at text and history without weaving into
    the calculus policy and administrative concerns," General Motors,
    
    898 F.2d at 172
    , which might compel us to remand.
    2] technologies," S. Rep. No. 101-228, at 332.  In addition,
    January 1, 2000, is the date by which the Phase II boilers
    must comply with the SO2 limits and is the last such compli-
    ance date explicitly mentioned in Title IV (save for section
    409(b)(1), which permits an extension of the compliance date
    for repowered sources from January 1, 2000, to December 31,
    2003, see 42 U.S.C. s 7651h(b)(1) (1994)).  Given these consid-
    erations, we can find no reason to conclude that a January 1,
    2000, compliance date is unreasonable, and thus we decline to
    vacate this portion of the rule.
    D.  The Classification of Retrofitted Cell Burner Boilers
    In this part we consider the proper classification of one
    kind of dry bottom wall-fired boiler (hereinafter, "wall-fired
    boiler"), known as a "cell burner."  In such a boiler, two or
    three closely-spaced burners are clustered in "cells," which
    are placed on opposing walls.  Under section 407(b), a wall-
    fired boiler is classified as Group 1, unless it is a unit
    "applying cell burner technology," in which case it is classified
    as Group 2.  Compare 42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(1)(B), with 42
    U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(2)(C).  The classification is important to the
    boiler's owner, because the Group 1 emission limit for wall-
    fired boilers is stricter than the Group 2 limit for cell burners.
    In issuing its final rule, EPA concluded that retrofitting a
    cell burner with "non-plug-in" NOx controls "convert[s]" the
    cell burner to a wall-fired boiler.  See EPA Response to
    Comments at 129 (J.A. 253).  The agency determined that
    cell burners that were retrofitted prior to the date of enact-
    ment of the 1990 amendments (November 15, 1990) should
    therefore be classified as Group 1, wall-fired boilers and
    subject to the more stringent limit.  However, EPA permit-
    ted those cell burners retrofitted after the date of enactment
    to remain subject to the more lenient limit applicable to
    Group 2.
    As a consequence of EPA's classification decision, petition-
    er Arizona Public Service Company ("APS") has two identical
    boilers, one retrofitted in 1989 (Unit 4) and one retrofitted in
    1991 (Unit 5), that are subject to very different emission
    limits.  APS charges that the classification of a retrofitted
    cell burner--and particularly its Unit 4--as a wall-fired boiler
    is arbitrary and capricious.  It also contends that the distinc-
    tion EPA made between retrofitted cell burners, based on the
    date of their retrofitting, is arbitrary and capricious.
    We agree that on the present record EPA has not justified
    its classification of retrofitted cell burners as wall-fired boil-
    ers, and hence vacate and remand the issue to the agency for
    further consideration.  Because we conclude that EPA has
    not justified the classification of any retrofitted cell burner as
    a wall-fired boiler, we do not consider whether EPA's effort
    to distinguish between retrofits based on the date of retrofit-
    ting was also arbitrary.41
    The question whether a retrofitted cell burner can properly
    be classified as a wall-fired boiler turns upon whether a
    retrofitted unit is still a unit "applying cell burner technolo-
    gy."  42 U.S.C. s 7651f(b)(1)(B).  Neither party contends
    that this question can be resolved under Chevron's step one.
    We agree that neither the statutory language nor the stat-
    ute's structure unambiguously decides the issue.  There also
    is no indication in the legislative history that Congress consid-
    ered the question of the effect of a retrofit on the appropriate
    classification of a cell burner.  This is a case in which
    Congress "has not directly addressed the precise question at
    issue," Chevron, 
    467 U.S. at 843
    , and we therefore proceed to
    Chevron's step two.
    Under step two, the question is whether the agency's
    interpretation of the statute is reasonable when measured
    against the statute's language, legislative history and pur-
    pose.  EPA argues that its classification of a retrofitted cell
    burner as no longer "applying cell burner technology" is
    reasonable.  In a "non-plug-in" retrofit, portions of the wall
    that held the clustered burners are removed, and more widely
    __________
    41 We do note, however, that EPA made the distinction at least in
    part to benefit utilities like APS, so that some of their units would
    continue within Group 2.  Having concluded that all cell burners
    retrofitted with non-plug-in controls are essentially wall-fired boil-
    ers, the agency nonetheless agreed to keep those retrofitted after
    spaced burners are installed.  EPA argues that once this is
    accomplished, the salient feature of a cell burner--the clus-
    tering of burners in cells--has disappeared, and that thereaf-
    ter the boiler is wall-fired for all intents and purposes.42
    APS contends, and we agree, that the interpretive question
    is not simply what the retrofitted boiler looks like ("cellular"
    or not), but whether it retains the attributes that Congress
    relied upon in placing cell burners in Group 2.  APS argues
    that Congress placed in Group 2 those boilers whose NOx
    emissions were more difficult to control.  The conference
    report on the Act's amendments supports this view, see H.R.
    Conf. Rep. No. 101-952, at 344, and the remaining legislative
    history contains no indication of any other rationale Congress
    may have had.
    Using this indication of congressional intent, APS argued in
    the rulemaking that cell burners have a number of relevant
    characteristics, besides the clustering of the burners.  Such
    boilers were designed in the 1960s with the purpose of
    concentrating heat in a smaller space.  As a consequence, the
    salient physical features are small boiler size as well as the
    location of the burners.  The small size, APS argued, leads to
    a higher burner zone release rate ("BZRR") in such a boiler,
    even when the burners are unclustered via retrofitting.   See
    APS Comments at 15-16 (J.A. 1038-39).  And BZRR, APS
    __________
    1990 within Group 2, contending, in part, that this would provide
    utilities with an incentive to retrofit as a way to reduce NOx
    emissions.  See EPA Response to Comments at 129 (J.A. 253).
    42 This issue may be one of dwindling significance.  Although
    APS retrofitted its units with "non-plug-ins," the only technology
    then available, in the future utilities likely will be able to retrofit
    cell burners with "plug-ins," which replace the existing burners with
    low NOx burners while maintaining the original cell configuration.
    See 61 Fed. Reg. at 1457-58.  EPA has not contended that a plug-in
    retrofit converts a cell burner into a wall-fired boiler.  Id.
    contended, is the driving force behind the high NOx emission
    levels of cell burners.  See id. at 15-17 (J.A. 1038-40).43
    Moreover, APS argued, the proof that retrofitted cell burn-
    ers are not the functional equivalent of wall-fired boilers is in
    their performance.  Retrofitted cell burners have much high-
    er emission rates than wall-fired boilers.  In fact, APS con-
    tended, of the four retrofitted cell burners in the country,
    only two can achieve the Group 1 emission limit for wall-fired
    burners.  And those two should not be considered, APS
    further argued, because they achieve the Group 1 limit only
    by using overfire air as well as low NOx burners.  See id. at
    15 (J.A. 1038).  We agree that the fact that no retrofitted cell
    burner can achieve the Group 1 emission limit using the only
    technology Congress authorized for setting that limit (low
    NOx burner technology) is evidence that retrofitted cell burn-
    ers are not the functional equivalent of wall-fired boilers, as
    measured by congressional concerns.
    In the rulemaking, EPA's only response to APS's conten-
    tion about the salience of small boiler size and its relationship
    to BZRRs was to say that APS did "not provide[ ] any
    __________
    43 EPA's appellate counsel argues that although the agency
    agrees with APS that Congress placed cell burners within Group 2
    because of the greater difficulty of controlling their NOx emissions,
    Congress attributed this difficulty to the cellular configuration and
    not to the high BZRR.  As support, EPA cites a report the
    Department of Energy presented to Congress prior to the passage
    of the 1990 amendments.  That report stated that the configuration
    of the burners in cells "results in combustion conditions that
    produce high NOx emissions."  Office of Clean Coal Tech., Dep't
    of Energy, Comprehensive Report to Congress Clean Coal Tech-
    nology Program:  Full-Scale Demonstration of Low-NOx Cell
    Burner Retrofit, at 1 (1990) (J.A. 493).  APS notes, however, that
    the same report also refers to the relationship between small boiler
    size, and correlative high BZRR and increased NOx formation.  See
    id. at 10 (J.A. 502).  Moreover, EPA offers no evidence that
    information supporting [this] claim."  EPA Response to Com-
    ments at 129 (J.A. 253).  This assertion is contradicted by the
    rulemaking record.  See APS Comments at 15-17 (J.A. 1038-
    40).44  Nor can we find any evidence that EPA responded at
    all to APS's comment that the only retrofitted cell burners
    capable of meeting the more stringent emission limit are
    those boilers that also use overfire air technology.  This
    failure to respond adequately to key questions about the
    reasonableness of the agency's position requires a remand.
    See Motor Vehicles Mfrs. Ass'n v. State Farm Mut. Auto.
    Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983).
    On appeal, EPA counsel contends that the fact that few if
    any retrofitted cell burners can meet the wall-fired limit does
    not mean the limit is invalid.  That, EPA argues, simply puts
    them in the same category as the 12 percent of all wall-fired
    boilers that cannot achieve the standard.  As we have agreed
    above, the statute does not require that EPA set limits so
    that all boilers in a category can achieve them.  One problem
    with EPA's argument here, however, is that it is an impermis-
    sible post hoc rationalization of appellate counsel.  See, e.g.,
    Unbelievable, Inc. v. NLRB, 
    118 F.3d 795
    , 809 n.3 (D.C. Cir.
    1997).  The larger problem is that it assumes the point that is
    at issue, i.e., that the retrofitted cell burners are wall-fired
    boilers.  If they are, then EPA is correct that any individual
    unit's inability to meet the Group 1 limit does not invalidate
    the standard as a whole.  But APS points to these units'
    inability to achieve the Group 1 limit not as part of an attack
    on the overall standard, but rather as evidence that EPA's
    effort to equate retrofitted cell burners and wall-fired boilers
    is invalid.  EPA, even through its counsel, does not answer
    this argument.
    __________
    Congress relied on or was aware of this report when enacting the
    1990 amendments.
    44 On appeal, EPA also takes issue with APS's data on BZRRs.
    As EPA did not raise this objection during the rulemaking, we
    reject it now as an impermissible post hoc rationalization, see
    Unbelievable, Inc. v. NLRB, 
    118 F.3d 795
    , 809 n.3 (D.C. Cir. 1997),
    but pass no judgment on its merit upon remand.
    Because EPA has not adequately justified its treatment of
    retrofitted cell burners as wall-fired boilers, we vacate and
    remand the issue to the agency for reconsideration or a more
    adequate justification.
    III. Conclusion
    For the foregoing reasons, we uphold EPA's NOx emission
    limits for the Group 1, Phase II boilers, the emission limits
    for the Group 2 boilers, and the compliance date of January 1,
    2000, as neither exceeding EPA's statutory authority under
    Title IV of the Clean Air Act nor arbitrary and capricious.
    We thus deny Appalachian Power's petition for review in its
    entirety.  However, we grant APS's petition for review, va-
    cate EPA's classification of certain retrofitted cell burners as
    wall-fired boilers as arbitrary and capricious, and remand to
    the agency for reconsideration or a more adequate explana-
    tion.
    It is so ordered.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 96-1497

Filed Date: 2/13/1998

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 12/21/2014

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