Inter Nat Gas Assn v. FERC ( 2002 )


Menu:
  •                   United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued November 29, 2001    Decided April 5, 2002
    No. 98-1333
    Interstate Natural Gas Association of America,
    Petitioner
    v.
    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,
    Respondent
    Missouri Gas Energy,
    Division of Southern Union Company, et al.,
    Intervenors
    Consolidated with
    98-1349, 00-1217, 00-1220, 00-1244, 00-1278, 00-1280,
    00-1286, 00-1291, 00-1308, 00-1315, 00-1319, 00-1360,
    00-1367, 00-1380, 00-1395, 00-1410, 00-1411, 00-1414,
    00-1416, 00-1418, 00-1419,
    ---------
    On Petitions for Review of Orders of the
    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
    ---------
    Thomas J. Eastment argued the cause for petitioners
    Opposing Lifting of Rate Cap.  With him on the briefs were
    John P. Elwood, Douglas W. Rasch, Frederick T. Kolb, Stan
    Geurin, Paul B. Keeler, Bruce A. Connell, Charles J.
    McClees, Jr., Linda Geoghegan, Dena E. Wiggins, Katherine
    P. Yarbrough, Edward J. Grenier, Jr., David M. Sweet, John
    W. Wilmer, Jr. and Joseph D. Lonardo.
    James D. McKinney, Jr. argued the cause for petitioners
    Opposing Limitation on Lifting of Rate Cap to Exclude
    Pipeline Short-Term Service.  With him on the briefs were
    John J. Wallbillich, James L. Blasiak, John H. Burnes, Jr.,
    Paul I. Korman, B.J. Becker and Paul W. Mallory.
    Michael E. McMahon and Henry S. May, Jr. argued the
    cause for petitioners and supporting intervenors on Multiple
    Issues Related to Segmentation.  With them on the briefs
    were Joan Dreskin, Robin Nuschler, Kurt L. Krieger, Robert
    T. Hall, III, John R. Schaefgen, Jr., James D. McKinney, Jr.,
    John J. Wallbillich, James L. Blasiak, John H. Burnes, Jr.,
    Paul I. Korman, B.J. Becker, Paul W. Mallory, Brian D.
    O'Neill, Bruce W. Neely, David P. Sharo, Merlin E. Rem-
    menga, R. David Hendrickson, Daniel F. Collins, G. Mark
    Cook, J. Curtis Moffatt, Susan A. Moore, Rodney E. Gerik,
    Steven E. Hellman, Judy M. Johnson, Catherine O'Harra
    and Richard D. Avil, Jr.
    Frank X. Kelly argued the cause for petitioner Enron
    Interstate Pipelines Opposing Change in Capacity Allocation
    at Secondary Points.  With him on the briefs were Steve
    Stojic, Drew J. Fossum and Maria K. Pavlou.
    James L. Blasiak argued the cause for petitioners and
    intervenors Opposing Changes in Penalties.  With him on the
    briefs were E. Duncan Getchell, Jr., Brian D. O'Neill, Bruce
    W. Neely, David P. Sharo, Merlin E. Remmenga, Kurt L.
    Krieger, Robin Nuschler, Rodney E. Gerik, Steven E. Hell-
    man, Mike McMahon, J. Curtis Moffatt, Susan A. Moore,
    Joan Dreskin, John H. Burnes, Jr., B.J. Becker, Judy M.
    Johnson, Catherine O'Harra, Robert T. Hall, III and John R.
    Schaefgen, Jr.
    Henry S. May Jr. and Mark K. Lewis argued the cause for
    petitioners and intervenor Opposing Limitations on the
    Right-Of-First-Refusal.  With them on the briefs were
    Bruce F. Kiely, Niki Kuckes, Edward J. Grenier, Jr., Bar-
    bara K. Heffernan, Debra Ann Palmer, William T. Miller,
    Joshua L. Menter, Denise C. Goulet and Jennifer N. Waters.
    Catherine O'Harra, Henry S. May, Jr., Judy M. Johnson,
    S. Scott Gaille, Rodney E. Gerik, Steven E. Hellman, James
    D. McKinney, Jr., John J. Wallbillich, Carl M. Fink, Lee A.
    Alexander, Robin Nuschler, Kurt Krieger, John H. Burnes,
    Jr., Paul I. Korman, B.J. Becker and Paul W. Mallory were
    on the briefs for petitioners and intervenors.
    Philip B. Malter argued the cause and filed the briefs for
    petitioner on Discount Adjustments.
    Thomas J. Eastment argued the cause for petitioners
    Opposing New Rate and Service Options.  With him on the
    briefs were Joshua B. Frank, Douglas W. Rasch, Frederick
    T. Kolb, Stan Geurin, Bruce A Connell, Charles J. McClees,
    Jr., Linda Geoghegan, David M. Sweet, John W. Wilmer, Jr.,
    Joseph D. Lonardo, Denise C. Goulet and Robert S. Tongren.
    Christopher J. Barr argued the cause for petitioners and
    intervenors Opposing Limitations on Pre-Arranged Releases.
    With him on the briefs were C. Brian Meadors, Frank H.
    Markle, Barbara K. Heffernan, Debra Ann Palmer and
    Denise C. Goulet.  Kent D. Murphy and Mary E. Buluss
    entered appearances.
    Dennis Lane, Solicitor, Federal Energy Regulatory Com-
    mission, Andrew K. Soto and Lona T. Perry, Attorneys,
    argued the causes and filed the brief for respondent.
    Karen A. Hill, Jeffrey M. Petrash, Kenneth T. Maloney
    and Edward B. Myers were on the brief for intervenors in
    support of Lifting the Rate Cap.  Jeffrey L. Futter entered
    an appearance.
    Joan Dreskin, Henry S. May, Jr., Judy M. Johnson,
    Catherine O'Harra, Rodney E. Gerik, Steven E. Hellman,
    James D. McKinney, Jr., John J. Wallbillich, R. David
    Hendrickson, Daniel F. Collins, Carl M. Fink, Lee A. Alex-
    ander, Robert T. Hall, III, John R. Schaefgen, Jr., Michael
    E. McMahon, J. Curtis Moffatt, Susan A. Moore, Frank X.
    Kelly, Steve Stojic and Shelley A. Corman were on the brief
    for intervenor Interstate Pipeline.  Stefan M. Krantz entered
    an appearance.
    Mark R. Haskell argued the cause for intervenors in
    support of respondent on Multiple Issues Related to Segmen-
    tation and Changes in Capacity Allocation.  With him on the
    brief were Peter G. Esposito, Dena E. Wiggins, Katherine P.
    Yarbrough and Edward J. Grenier, Jr.
    Thomas J. Eastment, Dena E. Wiggins, Katherine P.
    Yarbrough, James M. Bushee, Edward J. Grenier, Jr., Kir-
    stin E. Gibbs, Jeffrey M. Petrash, A. Karen Hill, William T.
    Miller, John P. Gregg, Joshua L. Menter, Frederick T. Kolb,
    Stan Geurin, Bruce A. Connell, Peter G. Esposito, Jennifer
    N. Waters, Douglas W. Rasch, Philip B. Malter, David M.
    Sweet, John W. Wilmer, Jr., Glenn W. Letham, Denise C.
    Goulet, Barbara K. Heffernan, Debra Ann Palmer, Charles
    J. McClees Jr., Linda Geoghegan, Bruce F. Kiely, Mark K.
    Lewis and Niki Kuckes were on the brief for intervenors
    Amoco Production Company, et al.  Lois M. Henry, Jennifer
    S. Leete, William H. Penniman and Irwin A. Popowsky
    entered appearances.
    Before:  Edwards and Tatel, Circuit Judges, and Williams,
    Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Senior Circuit Judge
    Williams.
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    I.   Rate Ceiling Issues                     7
    A.   Waiver of the rate ceilings for short-term
    capacity releases by shippers      7
    1.   Expected range of market rates          10
    2.   Non-cost factors              13
    3.   Oversight                15
    B.   Retention of the rate ceilings for short-
    term pipeline releases             16
    II.  Segmentation                            18
    A.   General validity                   19
    B.   Specific defects                        22
    1.   Primary point rights in segmented
    releases            22
    2.   Forwardhauls and backhauls to the
    same delivery point      25
    3.   Virtual pooling points             27
    4.   Reticulated pipelines              28
    5.   Discounts                30
    III. Secondary Point Capacity Allocation          32
    IV.   Penalties                              35
    A.   INGAA attack on penalty limits               36
    B.   Attacks on revenue-crediting provisions      40
    V.   The Right of First Refusal                   42
    A.   Five-year matching cap and "regulatory"
    right of first refusal             42
    1.   Five-year cap                 45
    2.   Right of first refusal trumping tariff
    provisions               46
    B.   Narrowing of the right of first refusal      48
    VI.  Discount Adjustments                    51
    VII. Peak/Off-Peak Rates                     55
    VIII.     Limitations on Pre-Arranged Releases         59
    Williams, Senior Circuit Judge:  The petitioners challenge
    the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Orders Nos.
    637, 637-A, and 637-B, in which the Commission extended its
    prior efforts to increase flexibility and competition in the
    natural gas industry.  See Order No. 637, Regulation of
    Short-Term Natural Gas Transportation Services And Reg-
    ulation of Interstate Natural Gas Transportation Services,
    FERC Stats. & Regs. [Reg. Preambles 1996-2000] (CCH)
    p 31,091 (2000) ("Order No. 637");  Order No. 637-A, Order on
    Rehearing, Regulation of Short-Term Natural Gas Trans-
    portation Services And Regulation of Interstate Natural Gas
    Transportation Services, FERC Stats. & Regs. [Reg. Pream-
    bles 1996-2000] (CCH) p 31,099 (2000) ("Order No. 637-A");
    Order No. 637-B;  Order Denying Rehearing, Regulation of
    Short-Term Natural Gas Transportation Services And Reg-
    ulation of Interstate Natural Gas Transportation Services,
    92 FERC p 61,602 (2000) ("Order No. 637-B").
    We deny the petitions for the most part, with the following
    exceptions:  we reverse and remand with respect to the five-
    year cap on the mandatory right of first refusal and in part
    with respect to the limitations on pre-arranged releases (is-
    sues V.A.1 and VIII in the Table of Contents);  we remand
    without reversing on forwardhauls and backwardhauls to the
    same delivery point (issue II.B.2) and on the relation between
    the right of first refusal and tariff provisions (issue V.A.2);
    and we dismiss the petitions as unripe or for want of standing
    with respect to segmentation of reticulated pipelines and
    point discounts, secondary point capacity allocation, and peak/
    off-peak rates (issues II.B.4, II.B.5, III and VII).
    I.   Rate Ceiling Issues
    A.   Waiver of the rate ceilings for short-term capacity
    releases by shippers
    The heart of Order No. 637 was the Commission's decision
    to lift--for a two-year period--the cost-based rate ceilings
    that it previously imposed on short-term "releases" of pipe-
    line capacity by shippers with long-term rights to that capaci-
    ty.  Order No. 637 at 31,263.  At the same time the order
    retained the ceilings for similar sales by the pipelines them-
    selves.  Id.  Both aspects are attacked:  the experimental
    decontrol--by certain shippers (collectively, "Exxon"), the
    exclusion of pipelines--by certain pipelines.
    The Natural Gas Act ("NGA"), 15 U.S.C. s 717, et seq.,
    mandates that all the rates and charges of a natural gas
    company for the transportation or sale of natural gas "shall
    be just and reasonable."  15 U.S.C. s 717c(a).  (It is undis-
    puted for the purposes of this appeal that a shipper reselling
    its capacity is a "natural gas company" to that extent and
    thus subject to FERC jurisdiction over such resales.  E.g.,
    Texas Eastern Transmission Corp., 48 FERC p 61,248 at
    61,873 (1989);  see also Order No. 636-A, Order on Rehearing,
    Pipeline Service Obligations and Revisions to Regulations
    Governing Self-Implementing Transportation Under Part
    284 of the Commission's Regulations, FERC Stats. & Regs.
    [Regs. Preambles 1991-1996] (CCH) p 30,950 at 30,551 (1992)
    ("Order No. 636-A");  United Distrib. Cos. v. FERC, 
    88 F.3d 1105
    , 1152 (D.C. Cir. 1996) ("UDC").) In its prior rulemaking
    aimed at enhancing competition by unbundling various pipe-
    line services, the Commission recognized that a significant
    percentage of pipeline capacity reserved for "firm" service
    often went unused.  Order No. 636, Pipeline Service Obli-
    gations and Revisions to Regulations Governing Self-Imple-
    menting Transportation Under Part 284 of the Commission's
    Regulations, FERC Stats. & Regs. [Regs. Preambles 1991-
    1996] (CCH) p 30,939 at 30,398-400 (1992) ("Order No. 636");
    cf. UDC, 
    88 F.3d at 1149
    .  It granted authority for the
    holders to release such capacity, but, concerned that capacity
    holders might be able to exercise market power, imposed a
    ceiling on what the releasing party could charge.  Order No.
    636 at 30,418;  Order No. 636-A at 30,553.  The ceiling was
    derived from the Commission's estimate of the maximum
    rates necessary for each pipeline to recover its annual cost-of-
    service revenue requirement, Order No. 637 at 31,270, which
    the Commission simply prorated over the period of each
    release, id. at 31,270, 31,271.
    As the Commission observed activity in the market under
    this arrangement, however, it came to believe that the ceil-
    ings probably worked against the shippers they were de-
    signed to protect.  With the rate ceilings in place, a shipper
    looking for short-term capacity on a peak day, and willing to
    offer a higher price in order to obtain it, could not legally do
    so;  this reduced its options for procuring short-term trans-
    portation at the times that it needed it most.  Order No. 637
    at 31,275-76.  So the Commission decided to grant a two-year
    experimental waiver of the ceilings on releases of firm capaci-
    ty.  For this limited period, "short-term" capacity releases
    (defined for these purposes as less than one year) may
    proceed at market rates.  Order No. 637 at 31,263.  Capacity
    sales by the pipelines themselves, both short and long-term,
    continue subject to the cost-based rate ceilings.  Order No.
    637-A at 31,572.  We here address the claims of the shippers
    who object to the experiment itself and the pipelines who
    object to their exclusion from its opportunities.
    * * *
    Framing our consideration of the challenges are (1) the
    special deference due agency experiments, (2) the basic prem-
    ise of the congressional mandate to FERC to regulate the
    rates of the interstate gas pipelines, and (3) a set of criteria,
    discussed exhaustively in Farmers Union Cent. Exch. v.
    FERC, 
    734 F.2d 1486
     (D.C. Cir. 1984) ("Farmers Union"), for
    review of decisions, undertaken by an agency having such a
    mandate, to choose a regime more "lighthanded" than tradi-
    tional cost-based regulation.
    Here of course the two-year waiver is explicitly experimen-
    tal.  As the Commission said, "No matter how good the data
    suggesting that a regulatory change should be made, there is
    no substitute for reviewing the actual results of a regulatory
    action."  Order No. 637 at 31,279.  For at least 30 years this
    court has given special deference to agency development of
    such experiments, precisely because of the advantages of data
    developed in the real world.  See, e.g., Public Serv. Comm'n
    v. FPC, 
    463 F.2d 824
    , 828 (D.C. Cir. 1972);  Paul Mohler,
    "Experiments at the FERC--In Search of a Hypothesis," 
    19 Energy L.J. 281
    , 300 (1998).  The petitioners do not contest
    this extra layer of deference.
    Second, the basic premise of the NGA is the understanding
    that natural gas pipeline transportation is generally a natural
    monopoly, see, e.g., UDC, 
    88 F. 3d at 1122
    , so that without
    regulation the rates of pipeline companies would exceed com-
    petitive rates, i.e., ones approximating cost, Elizabethtown
    Gas Co. v. FERC, 
    10 F.3d 866
    , 870 (D.C. Cir. 1993).  In
    dispensing with cost-based rate ceilings presumptively intend-
    ed by Congress as a remedy, and supplanting those ceilings
    temporarily with market-based rates in a segment of the
    pipeline market, the Commission may be seen as facing a
    kind of uphill fight.  Though the slope faced by FERC is
    perhaps uphill, however, it is not the almost vertical escarp-
    ment that Exxon seems to suppose.  This is not Point du
    Hoc.
    Third, our decision in Farmers Union, though addressing
    oil pipeline regulation under the Hepburn Act, sets out gener-
    al guidance for our review of FERC's decision to elect more
    relaxed ("lighthanded," as we said) regulation than traditional
    cost-based ceilings, in the context of a mandate to set "just
    and reasonable" rates in an industry generally thought to
    have the features of a natural monopoly.  
    734 F.2d at 1510
    .
    The overarching criterion that we identified was (inevitably)
    that any such decision could be justified by "a showing that
    ... the goals and purposes of the statute will be accom-
    plished" through the proposed changes.  
    Id.
      To satisfy that
    standard, we demanded that the resulting rates be expected
    to fall within a "zone of reasonableness, where [they] are
    neither less than compensatory nor excessive."  
    Id. at 1502
    (internal quotations omitted).  While the expected rates'
    proximity to cost was a starting point for this inquiry into
    reasonableness, 
    id.,
     we were quite explicit that "non-cost
    factors may legitimate a departure from a rigid cost-based
    approach," 
    id.
      Finally, we said that FERC must retain some
    general oversight over the system, to see if competition in
    fact drives rates into the zone of reasonableness "or to check
    rates if it does not."  
    Id. at 1509
    .  We now apply this basic
    model.
    1. Expected range of market rates.  As competition nor-
    mally provides a reasonable assurance that rates will approxi-
    mate cost, at least over the long pull, Elizabethtown Gas Co.,
    
    10 F.3d at 870
    , Exxon argues that the Commission's experi-
    ment cannot be sustained in the absence of data establishing
    the existence of competition.  Presumably, for example, a
    calculation of Herfindahl-Hirschman indices for the capacity
    release market in all origin and destination pairs would do the
    job.  The Commission has not undertaken such an enterprise.
    See, e.g., Order No. 637-A at 31,558.
    But the Commission has other evidence.  First, since ca-
    pacity resales were authorized in 1992, the rates for such
    releases have on average been somewhat below the maximum
    tariff rates, both during off-peak and peak periods.  Order
    No. 637-A at 31,563 & n.46.  Second, the Commission has
    data from "the bundled market," i.e., inferences as to trans-
    portation values drawn from comparison of the prices for gas
    sold at the field with the prices for gas sold in destination
    markets.  As the Commission points out, if the difference
    between field prices and citygate prices in a particular path-
    way is only $.07, people will not pay more than $.07 for the
    unbundled transportation.  Order No. 637 at 31,271.  Only
    during the coldest times of some years has this inferred price
    exceeded the capped rate.  Order No. 637-A at 31,563 &
    nn.47-48.  Order No. 637's Figure 6, found at 31,273, which
    we reproduce below, illustrates the pattern the Commission
    found.
    Figure 6 is not available electronically.
    Thus the Commission had a substantial basis for concluding
    that the uncapped market price for capacity--which FERC
    concedes is likely to exceed the current maximum at certain
    times of the year--will be roughly in line (at least annually)
    with the cost-based price.  Order No. 637-A at 31,563-64.
    Of course, one could argue that this demonstrates only that
    in the periods where the ceilings are not binding, there is no
    problem for them to solve;  thus it supplies no justification for
    removal of the ceilings for the (peak) periods where they are
    binding.  But the data represented in the graph above do
    support the Commission's view that the capacity release
    market enjoys considerable competition.  The brief spikes in
    moments of extreme exigency are completely consistent with
    competition, reflecting scarcity rather than monopoly.  See
    Order No. 637-A at 31,595.  A surge in the price of candles
    during a power outage is no evidence of monopoly in the
    candle market.
    Moreover, outside the spikes the rates were well below the
    regulated price, which in turn is based on the Commission's
    estimates of cost.  As prices would be above cost in the
    absence of competition and yet are not (putting aside the
    brief scarcity-related spikes), the Commission's inference of
    competition appears well founded.
    The Commission also considered two ways in which capaci-
    ty resellers might exploit or extend such market power as
    they may possess--price discrimination and deliberate with-
    holding of capacity to drive up prices--and found that neither
    presented much peril.  Order No. 637-A at 31,564.  FERC
    dismissed price discrimination on the grounds that, given the
    ease with which capacity can be transferred between ship-
    pers, resellers would have no way to prevent arbitrage.  See
    Order No. 637 at 31,280, 31,282.
    As to deliberate withholding of capacity, the Commission
    reasoned that this too was not within the power of capacity
    holders.  If holders of firm capacity do not use or sell all of
    their entitlement, the pipelines are required to sell the idle
    capacity as interruptible service to any taker at no more than
    the maximum rate--which is still applicable to the pipelines.
    See Order No. 637 at 31,282.  Even though interruptible
    service may not be as desirable as firm service, the Commis-
    sion concluded that it would provide an adequate substitute,
    whose availability would place a meaningful check on whatev-
    er anti-competitive tendencies the resellers might have.  See
    Order No. 637-A at 31,565.  And because the pipelines con-
    tinue to be bound by cost-of-service regulations, the agency
    suggested that they would have no incentive to collude with
    firm shippers to limit available capacity.  
    Id.
    Moreover, the availability of the bundled sales mentioned
    above (where a holder of capacity buys gas in the field and
    sells it in a destination market, with no explicit sale of the
    necessary capacity itself) further reduces the possibility that
    the waiver policy would significantly change the firm ship-
    pers' ability to increase their rates for capacity releases.
    Order No. 637 at 31,276.  And, if pipelines should observe
    high prices in the secondary market, they will--despite their
    capped rates--often have adequate incentives to add capacity,
    which they can do even in the relatively short-term by adding
    compression.  Id. at 31,282.
    Thus we think the Commission made a substantial record
    for the proposition that market rates would not materially
    (considering degree, volume and duration) exceed the "zone of
    reasonableness" required by Farmers Union.  Any flaws in
    its showing must be evaluated, of course, in light both of the
    experimental nature of the two-year removal of ceilings and
    of the non-cost factors discussed below.
    2. Non-cost factors.  The Commission pointed to a num-
    ber of advantages of lifting the ceilings on short-term capaci-
    ty releases, tending to offset whatever harm the occasional
    high rate might entail.  We discuss them, concentrating on
    the highlights.
    First, because the rule applies only to the secondary trans-
    portation market, the primary intended beneficiaries of the
    NGA--the "captive" shippers, typically operating under firm
    contracts--continue to receive whatever benefits the rate
    ceilings generally provide.  See Order No. 637 at 31,284-85
    (alluding to the continued protection of the Commission's
    "primary constituency--captive long-term firm capacity hold-
    ers").  Indeed, these holders actually reap the benefits of
    FERC's new rule, in the form of higher payments for their
    releases of surplus capacity.  See id. at 31,281;  see also
    Order No. 637-A at 31,562.
    Second, the rate ceilings on short-term capacity releases
    were fundamentally ineffective.  We've already described the
    market for bundled gas and transportation, by means of
    which a holder of surplus capacity can take advantage of the
    real market value of transportation by going into the gas
    market itself, buying in an origin market and selling at the
    destination.  Although all hands recognize that during peaks
    the market value of the transportation can far exceed the
    FERC-imposed maximum tariff rate, see Order No. 637 at
    31,273-74 & figs. 6-7, neither the Commission, nor any of the
    parties, has proposed extending price regulations to cover the
    bundled sales market, id. at 31,275.
    Third, removal of ceilings facilitates the movement of ca-
    pacity into the hands of those who value it most highly.  See
    Order No. 637 at 31,280.  With the rate ceilings in place, the
    options of a shipper looking for short-term capacity on a peak
    day are only to enter a bundled transaction with a holder of
    firm capacity (at a price that includes the market value of
    transportation), or to "take the gas out of the pipeline and
    pay the pipeline's scheduling or overrun penalties," which, the
    Commission observed, may "compromise the operational in-
    tegrity of the pipeline's system."  Order No. 637 at 31,276;
    see also id. at 31,280.  Thus the rate relaxation reduces
    transactions costs and increases transparency, helping eco-
    nomic actors make rational decisions for other aspects of their
    operations, e.g., decisions on how much firm capacity they
    really need, and, for example, for a fuel-switchable industrial
    user, whether to use or sell some of its capacity.  Id. at
    31,276.
    It might be argued that these efficiency values are ubiqui-
    tous and might justify any deregulation of any rates mandat-
    ed by Congress to be held at "just and reasonable" levels.
    Not so.  Cost-based rate regulation of a natural monopoly (if
    accurately done--a big "if") is consistent with efficiency.  The
    special phenomenon here is congestion in the peaks;  it is only
    the inefficiency produced by rates based solely on the cost of
    supply--and in complete disregard of the opportunity cost of
    the capacity--that the Commission has set out to remedy.
    Compare Order No. 637-A at 31,595 (expressing view that
    peak prices simply reflect scarcity rents).
    The presence of these non-cost factors here distinguishes
    the present case from prior decisions cited by Exxon, see
    Farmers Union;  Elizabethtown Gas, 
    10 F.3d 866
    ;  Tejas
    Power Corp. v. FERC, 
    908 F.2d 998
     (D.C. Cir. 1990), where
    we set aside FERC departures from cost-based rate ceilings.
    3. Oversight.  As to monitoring and assurance of reme-
    dies in the event of insufficient competition, on which Farm-
    ers Union set great store, see 
    734 F.2d at 1509
    , the Commis-
    sion identifies three safeguards.
    First, release prices and availability must be publicly re-
    ported in compliance with FERC's current posting and bid-
    ding requirements.  This will increase the information avail-
    able to buyers and, the Commission believed, reduce any ill
    effects of market power, while at the same time making it
    easier for FERC to identify situations in which shippers were
    abusing their market power.  Order No. 637 at 31,283;  Order
    No. 637-A at 31,558.  FERC also noted that it retained
    jurisdiction under s 5 of the NGA, 15 U.S.C. s 717d, to
    entertain complaints and to respond to specific allegations of
    market power on a case-by-case basis if necessary.  See
    Order No. 637 at 31,286 (stating that specific abuses of
    market power "can be addressed on an individual basis");  see
    also FERC Br. at 54 (citing Transmission Access Policy
    Study Group v. FERC, 
    225 F.3d 667
    , 689 (D.C. Cir. 2000)
    ("TAPS"), aff'd sub nom., New York v. FERC, 
    122 S. Ct. 1012
    (2002), ("[I]f [a party] has evidence that the tariff results in
    undue discrimination in its individual circumstances, [that
    party] remains free to file a petition under FPA s 206 [the
    equivalent of NGA s 5] for redress, and FERC will consider
    its claim.").  Finally, the Commission pointed out that this
    mitigation mechanism, however reactive and limited to for-
    ward-looking remedies, is complemented by its continued
    regulation of pipeline penalty levels, which establish de facto
    rate ceilings for release transactions, as would-be purchasers
    of capacity would not pay a price greater than the penalty for
    overuse of their regular pipeline capacity.  See Order No.
    637-A at 31,558.
    Given the substantial showing that in this context competi-
    tion has every reasonable prospect of preventing seriously
    monopolistic pricing, together with the non-cost advantages
    cited by the commission and the experimental nature of this
    particular "lighthanded" regulation, we find the Commission's
    decision neither a violation of the NGA, nor arbitrary or
    capricious.
    B.   Retention of the rate ceilings for short-term pipeline
    releases
    Having been attacked for going too far with its waivers,
    FERC is also challenged for not going far enough.  A group
    of four pipelines argues that the Commission's decision to
    retain the price ceilings on pipelines, while removing them
    from short-terms resellers of capacity, is discriminatory and
    arbitrary and capricious.  We do not find the Commission's
    gradualism fatally flawed.
    We start, of course, from the premise that the Commission
    is free to undertake reform one step at a time.  Maryland
    People's Counsel v. FERC, 
    761 F.2d 768
    , 779 (D.C. Cir. 1985).
    We can overturn its gradualism only if it truly yields unrea-
    sonable discrimination or some other kind of arbitrariness.
    In fact the Commission's distinction is not unreasonable.
    Despite the absence of Herfindahl-Hirschman indices for non-
    pipeline capacity holders, there seems every reason to sup-
    pose that their ownership of such capacity (in any given
    market) is not so concentrated as that of the pipelines them-
    selves--the concentration that prompted Congress to impose
    rate regulation in the first place.  See FPC v. Texaco, 
    417 U.S. 380
    , 398 n.8 (1974).  The petitioning pipelines assert that
    pipelines hold only about 7% of pipeline transportation capaci-
    ty, while shippers hold the remaining 93%.  This is classic
    apples and oranges.  The Commission points out that where-
    as the uncontracted capacity of a pipeline is presumptively
    available for the short-term market, no such presumption
    makes sense for the non-pipeline capacity holders:  they
    presumably contracted for the capacity in anticipation of
    actually using it.
    Second, the Commission made clear that pipelines do have
    options for a switch to market rates.  A pipeline may sell at
    such rates either by demonstrating that there is enough
    competition in the short-term market to preclude market
    power, or by securing FERC permission for sale of capacity
    by auction.  The Commission recognized that such auctions
    were to a degree hampered by its own regulations, and
    expressed a readiness to waive some of the burdens.  See
    Order No. 637-A at 31,572;  Order No. 637 at 31,295.
    The pipelines make the interesting point that continued
    subjection of their short-term rates to FERC ceilings will
    skew the prices in the decontrolled market.  The Commis-
    sion's brief writers profess to be "baffl[ed]" by this argument,
    but its opinion writers understood the principle perfectly well,
    in fact invoking it in another context.  See Order No. 637-B
    at 61,164 n.8.  The basic proposition asserted by the pipelines
    (and, as we say, recognized by the Commission) is that where
    (1) a portion of the supply of a good or service is subject to
    price controls, and (2) demand exceeds (the price-controlled)
    supply at the fixed price, the market-clearing price in the
    uncontrolled segment will be normally higher than if no price
    controls were imposed on any of the supply.
    This is so because--unless there is a system of rationing
    the price-controlled supply that in some way exactly matches
    the would-be buyers' willingness to pay (an improbable sce-
    nario)--buyers whose demand would have been completely
    foreclosed if the entire market had been uncontrolled will in
    fact use up some of the price-controlled supply and thus
    (obviously) some of the aggregate supply.  In the price-
    controlled segment higher-value demanders will to a degree
    be supplanted by lower-value demanders.  The presence of
    the extra unsatisfied higher-value demand alters the
    demand-supply ratio in the uncontrolled market, which will
    therefore clear at a higher price than if the entirety were
    uncontrolled.  For example, consider a good that sells for
    $1.25 in an open market.  The market is then split and a
    ceiling of $1 is set in the controlled sector.  As some users of
    the controlled supply would only have been willing to pay,
    say, $1.10, and thus would have consumed none before, their
    usage will displace demanders willing to pay $1.25 or more;
    the displaced demanders will drive up the uncontrolled price.
    Compare National Regulatory Research Institute, State Reg-
    ulatory Options for Dealing with Natural Gas Wellhead
    Price Deregulation 40-51 (1983).
    This is surely a potential price of gradualism.  But distor-
    tions of this sort seem likely in any such compromise, and
    compromise--going one step at a time--is within the Com-
    mission's purview so long as it rests on reasonable distinc-
    tions.  Here, the distinction between pipelines and other
    holders of unused capacity, based on probable likelihood of
    wielding market power, seems to us to pass muster.
    II. Segmentation
    As part of Order No. 636, FERC established two related
    policies--segmentation and flexible point rights--that it
    thought were important to enhancing the value of firm capaci-
    ty and to promoting competition in the secondary market
    between firm shippers releasing capacity and pipelines, as
    well as between releasing shippers themselves.  Order No.
    636 at 30,428, 30,420-21;  see also Order No. 637 at 31,300-01.
    Segmentation refers to the ability of firm capacity holders to
    subdivide their capacity into separate parts, either for their
    own use or for release to replacement shippers.  Order No.
    637 at 31,303;  see also Order No. 637-A at 31,591.  Flexible
    point rights, on the other hand, enable firm capacity holders
    to change the primary receipt or delivery point--the points
    with respect to which shippers are guaranteed to have firm
    service for their shipments--so that they can receive and
    deliver gas to or from any point within their firm capacity
    rights.  Order No. 637 at 31,301.
    Not having included its segmentation policy in any regula-
    tions issued as a result of Order No. 636, see Order No. 637
    at 31,301, the Commission later found that in the process of
    approving individual pipeline restructurings it had not imple-
    mented the policy uniformly.  See Order No. 637 at 31,301,
    31,303.  Compare, e.g., Texas Eastern Transmission Corp.,
    63 FERC p 61,100 at 61,452 (1993) (segmentation allowed),
    with Koch Gateway Pipeline Co., 65 FERC p 61,338 at 62,631
    (1993) (no segmentation);  see also Order No. 637 at 31,301;
    Order No. 637-A at 31,590.
    Concerned with this lack of consistency, it responded in
    Order No. 637 by codifying a requirement that pipelines
    "permit a shipper to make use of the firm capacity for which
    it has contracted by segmenting that capacity into separate
    parts for its own use or for the purpose of releasing that
    capacity to replacement shippers to the extent such segmen-
    tation is operationally feasible."  Order No. 637 at 31,303;  18
    C.F.R. s 284.7(e).  It directed each pipeline to make a pro
    forma tariff filing showing how it intended to comply with the
    new regulation, or explaining why its system's configuration
    justified curtailing segmentation rights to ensure operational
    integrity.  Order No. 637 at 31,304.  Moreover, at least in the
    context of segmented transactions, limitations on flexibility in
    changing primary points would now also have to be based
    solely on the operational characteristics of pipeline systems.
    Order No. 637-A at 31,595.
    Interstate Natural Gas Association of America and several
    pipelines (collectively, "INGAA") now challenge the new seg-
    mentation rule both on its face and, in the alternative, as it
    applies to a number of factual scenarios.  We deal first with
    the general attack, then with specifics.
    A. General validity
    Section 5 of the Natural Gas Act requires that when the
    Commission seeks to replace an existing rate or practice with
    a new one, it must demonstrate by substantial evidence that
    the existing rate or practice has become unjust or unreason-
    able, and that the proposed one is both just and reasonable.
    15 U.S.C. s 717d;  Western Res., Inc. v. FERC, 
    9 F.3d 1568
    ,
    1580 (D.C. Cir. 1993).  INGAA raises both a procedural and a
    substantive attack on the adequacy of FERC's findings in the
    present orders.
    INGAA claims that the Commission must make a detailed
    showing "that every pipeline's [existing] tariff [was] unjust
    and unreasonable," or that the new policy is "just and reason-
    able for any pipeline."  INGAA Segmentation Br. at 14-15.
    But s 5 imposes no such requirement.  Our cases have long
    held that the Commission may rely on "generic" or "general"
    findings of a systemic problem to support imposition of an
    industry-wide solution.  See TAPS, 225 F.3d at 687-88;  Wis-
    consin Gas Co. v. FERC, 
    770 F.2d 1144
    , 1166 & n.36 (D.C.
    Cir. 1985).  Here, the Commission has made a "generic
    determination" that a pipeline's refusal to permit segmenta-
    tion where it could "operationally" do so would be unjust and
    unreasonable.  Order No. 637-A at 31,590.  And the Commis-
    sion explained that it was not making a s 5 determination
    that any particular pipeline's tariff was unjust or unreason-
    able, but that it would defer such an inquiry to individual
    compliance proceedings, where the applicable standard would
    be operational feasibility.  Id. at 31,590-91.
    As INGAA correctly points out, the Commission cannot
    enact "an industry-wide solution for a problem that exists
    only in isolated pockets.  In such a case, the disproportion of
    remedy to ailment would, at least at some point, become
    arbitrary and capricious."  INGAA Segmentation Br. at 16
    (quoting Associated Gas Distributors v. FERC, 
    824 F.2d 981
    ,
    1019 (D.C. Cir. 1987) ("AGD")).  According to INGAA, the
    Commission's vague observation that "some pipelines" do not
    permit segmentation where it is operationally feasible, Order
    No. 637 at 31,301, does not sufficiently illustrate the existence
    of an industry-wide anti-competitive practice that the Com-
    mission purports to seek to eliminate with its broad rule.
    INGAA Segmentation Br. at 16.
    INGAA somewhat misinterprets the law when it insists
    that a problem must necessarily be widespread to permit a
    generic solution.  The very quotation from AGD on which
    INGAA relies shows that proportionality between the identi-
    fied problem and the remedy is the key.  See also AGD, 
    824 F.2d at 1019
     (holding that the Commission could not rely on
    "generic" analysis where it expressly found that only a limit-
    ed segment of the industry was affected by the problem it
    sought to address, while the remedy adopted would necessari-
    ly impact other segments).
    Here the Commission could reasonably consider the reme-
    dy proportional to the identified problem:  it requires segmen-
    tation only where it is operationally feasible, since in that
    situation, the Commission found, the failure to permit seg-
    mentation is unjust and unreasonable because it restricts
    efficient use of capacity without adequate justification.  See
    Order No. 637 at 31,304;  Order No. 637-A at 31,591.
    Insofar as INGAA makes a general attack on the substance
    of the generic finding, it is unconvincing.  It says that a
    pipeline may resist even operationally feasible segmentation
    "for a host of ... contractual, and financial reasons."
    INGAA Segmentation Br. at 15-16.  This is surely true.  But
    pipeline contracts are subject to modification by the Commis-
    sion on findings that their terms are unjust or unreasonable,
    and we have long taken the view that the Commission may
    use this power to apply "whatever pro-competitive policies
    are consistent with the agency's enabling act."  AGD, 
    824 F.2d at 1018
    .  As a general matter, INGAA simply fails to
    make the case that the flexibility on which the Commission
    insists (subject to operational feasibility concerns) is not
    necessary for reasonable pursuit of the Commission's policy
    of enhancing competition by increasing the flexibility of ca-
    pacity releases.
    INGAA makes a related claim that by forcing pipelines to
    submit pro forma filings, the Commission has impermissibly
    shifted onto them the burden of proof that segmentation is
    indeed infeasible for a particular pipeline, evading its duty to
    carry the burden of supporting any change implemented via
    s 5.  According to INGAA, the Commission has in essence
    required pipelines to make s 4 filings to defend their current
    rates;  s 4 proceedings presuppose that it is the company that
    seeks a rate change and they therefore allocate to the compa-
    ny the burden of justifying new tariffs.  See Public Serv.
    Comm'n v. FERC, 
    866 F.2d 487
    , 488 (D.C. Cir. 1989).
    Indeed, certain language in the orders and even in the
    Commission's brief supports INGAA's claim.  For example,
    the Commission at one point says that it will "require the
    pipelines to show why their existing tariffs should not be
    considered unjust and unreasonable," Order No. 637-A at
    31,591, and that "individual pipelines [will have] an opportuni-
    ty to demonstrate that their own circumstances justify devia-
    tion from the general conclusion that segmentation is appro-
    priate," FERC Br. at 101.  INGAA's suspicion is also fueled
    by the fact that on several previous occasions the Commission
    had impermissibly blurred the distinction between s 4 and
    s 5, see Western Res., 
    9 F.3d at 1578
     ("We now make it an
    even six" times that the Commission failed to respect this
    distinction), or tried to use another section of the NGA to
    "trump" its s 5 obligations, see Pub. Serv. Comm'n, 
    866 F.2d at 491
     (holding that s 16 of the NGA, which grants the
    Commission the right to require filings needed to exercise its
    powers under the NGA, did not permit FERC to require a
    company to make periodic s 4 re-filings).
    Nonetheless, the orders contain some express language
    supporting the position of the Commission's counsel at oral
    argument that FERC will indeed shoulder the burden under
    s 5 of the NGA to show the requisite operational feasibility.
    See Order No. 637-A at 31,590-91 (suggesting that pro forma
    compliance filings are not s 4 filings, and that FERC "will be
    acting under Section 5 to implement changes");  Order No.
    637-B at 61,165.  Given that the character of s 5 is well
    established, we feel reasonably confident that the Commission
    will hew to its constraints;  if not, obviously a judicial remedy
    would follow any individualized abuse.
    As to the Commission's determination to extract informa-
    tion from pipelines relevant to the practical issues, we see no
    violation of the NGA.  The Commission has authority under
    s 5 to order hearings to determine whether a given pipeline
    is in compliance with FERC's rules, 15 U.S.C. s 717d(a), and
    under s 10 and s 14 to require pipelines to submit needed
    information for making its s 5 decisions, 15 U.S.C. ss 717i &
    717m(c).  See also Order No. 637-B at 61,165.
    B.   Specific defects
    INGAA contends that, although FERC expressly limited
    its new segmentation rule to capacity "for which [the shipper]
    has contracted," 18 C.F.R. s 284.7(d), the orders actually
    increase shippers' transportation rights beyond their contrac-
    tual scope, thus amounting to an unlawful abrogation of
    contract, and that the orders are otherwise arbitrary and
    capricious.
    1. Primary point rights in segmented releases.  In the
    Commission's view, segmentation must be coupled with flexi-
    ble point rights in order to create effective competition be-
    tween pipeline services and released capacity.  Order No.
    637-A at 31,594.  Take the Commission's own example of a
    shipper holding firm capacity between the Gulf of Mexico and
    New York.  That shipper could release the portion or seg-
    ment of its firm capacity between the Gulf and Atlanta to a
    replacement shipper, permitting the replacement shipper to
    use the segment to deliver gas to Atlanta;  meanwhile the
    releasing shipper would retain its firm capacity between
    Atlanta and New York, allowing it to ship gas from Atlanta to
    New York.  Order No. 637 at 31,301.  In this situation, both
    the releasing and the replacement shippers need to have the
    ability to change their primary receipt and delivery points
    from the ones designated in their contracts so as to be able to
    effectively make use of the segmented capacity;  for instance,
    the replacement shipper needs to designate Atlanta as its
    primary delivery point, now that it has acquired rights to
    capacity in the mainline segment terminating there.  If the
    replacement shipper were limited to less-than-primary rights
    at Atlanta, then the releasing shipper could not compete
    effectively with the pipeline as a seller of capacity, because
    the pipeline would have the right to sell capacity to the
    Atlanta point on a primary basis.  See Order No. 637-A at
    31,594.
    INGAA objects to the Commission's requirement that pipe-
    lines automatically grant shippers primary treatment at mul-
    tiple points, subject only to operational constraints, saying
    that such a rule effectively abrogates pre-existing contractual
    arrangements--which limit primary rights to specific points--
    by endowing shippers with rights they have never bargained
    or paid for.  Assuming the shippers' rights are so limited,
    INGAA claims that the Commission has not met the standard
    under s 5 for abrogation of the pipeline's rights.  See Permi-
    an Basin Area Rate Cases, 
    390 U.S. 747
    , 822 (1968) (abroga-
    tion permitted "only in circumstances of unequivocal public
    necessity").
    It is not clear, however, that there are any pre-existing
    contract rights to be "abrogated."  FERC's policy tying
    flexible primary points with segmentation rights dates back
    to Order No. 636, which started the restructuring process;
    thus, it presumably governs the currently applicable con-
    tracts.  In the Order No. 636 restructuring proceedings, the
    Commission generally permitted more than one approach by
    pipelines to granting shippers flexible point rights, but ob-
    served repeatedly that in the segmentation context, flexibility
    in point rights was required in order for segmentation to be a
    "meaningful option" or a "meaningful mechanism."  See, e.g.,
    Transwestern Pipeline Co., 62 FERC p 61,090 at 61,658
    (1993);  Northwest Pipeline Co., 63 FERC p 61,124 at 61,807
    (1993).  In some instances, the Commission did permit pipe-
    lines to limit shippers' flexibility in choosing primary points,
    based on pre-existing tariff provisions.  For example, in
    Transwestern Pipeline, the Commission approved a pipeline
    tariff that continued a pre-existing provision limiting a ship-
    per's primary point rights to the same level as its total
    mainline contract demand, based on a concern over hoarding
    of primary point rights.  62 FERC at 61,659;  Order on
    Rehearing, 63 FERC p 61,138 at 61,911-12 (1993).  But even
    then the Commission noted Transwestern's remark that it
    had a lot more primary point capacity than mainline capacity,
    and so acknowledged that perhaps the restriction would prove
    unneeded.  
    Id.,
     62 FERC at 61,659;  63 FERC at 61,911-12.
    Thus, its practice appears to have been in effect an applica-
    tion of the operational feasibility principle, and this typically
    led to tariff rules broadly protecting releasing and replace-
    ment shippers' interest in points along their respective seg-
    ments.  See, e.g., Northwest Pipeline, 63 FERC at 61,806-08.
    In the restructuring in Texas Eastern Transmission Corp.,
    63 FERC p 61,100 (1993), for example, FERC stated its
    policy to be:
    The releasing and replacement shippers must be treated
    as separate shippers with separate contract demands.
    Thus, the releasing shipper may reserve primary points
    on the unreleased segment up to its capacity entitlement
    on that segment, while the replacement shipper simulta-
    neously reserves primary points on the released segment
    up to its capacity on that segment.
    Id. at 61,452 (quoted verbatim in Order No. 637 at 31,302).
    See also El Paso Natural Gas Co., 62 FERC p 61,311 (1993).
    Thus the new segmentation rule represents a continuation of
    past policy rather than a break with it, and no further special
    showing was required for the continuation of that policy.
    2. Forwardhauls and backhauls to the same delivery
    point.  INGAA also challenges what the Commission viewed
    as a clarification of prior policy for the situation where
    releasing and replacement shippers, in a combination of for-
    wardhaul and backhaul, make deliveries to a single point in an
    amount greater than the shipper's contracted-for capacity at
    the delivery point.
    First, we need to develop a clear picture of a backhaul
    transaction.  Suppose a pipeline runs from A to B to C, and
    has 10,000 dekatherms of daily capacity, all of which is
    contracted for from A to C and of which X holds 1000.  X's
    market at C declines, and X would like to ship only to B and
    to release the 1000 in B-C capacity.  X learns of another
    possible shipper, Y, who has a right to 1000 dekatherms at C
    and would like to sell it at B. Can X release its B-C capacity
    to Y, even though the nominal "flow" of Y's intended ship-
    ment is against the A to C stream?
    So far as mainline capacity is concerned, we understand the
    parties to agree that this is permissible.  Given that the gas
    actually will not and cannot be moved upstream, the deal
    appears to force the pipeline to carry an extra 1000 from A to
    B (the basic 10,000, plus the 1000 to be delivered at B on
    behalf of Y).  But because of gas's fungibility the appearance
    is false.  The pipeline will now deliver 9000 at C, and it will
    rely on Y's supply for 1000 of that.  As a result, it still need
    carry only 10,000 from A to B, where it will dispense 1000 for
    X's account and 1000 for Y.  On the B-C leg it need carry
    only 8000.  Thus the transaction does not violate FERC's
    rule that segmentation may not result in shipments exceeding
    the shippers' contracted-for capacity rights on any segment.
    Order No. 637-A at 31,591.
    But the parties are in dispute over the delivery point.
    Suppose that point B, instead of being the same physical
    delivery facility, were really two nearby points, B1 and B2, the
    latter a bit downstream of the former.  Both sides agree that
    the above transaction would be all right, subject to the
    operational feasibility constraint, even though deliveries are
    now being made at those two sites that were not specifically
    contracted for.  But INGAA balks at the original hypothetical
    (where both new deliveries are at B), because of the alleged
    excess beyond X's contract rights.
    Some decisions prior to the present orders suggest that the
    Commission too disapproved of such a transaction.  In at
    least one case the Commission said that such a transaction
    produced a fatal "overlap" at the single point of delivery.  "A
    shipper may segment its capacity rights, but it cannot exceed
    its contractual service levels at any point."  Iroquois Gas
    Trans. Sys., L.P., 78 FERC p 61,135 at 61,523-24 (1997).  But
    a few years later the Commission allowed what appears to be
    substantially similar, a combined "forwardhaul and backwar-
    dhaul to a series of 23 meter stations considered as a single
    point for nomination purposes," Order No. 637-A at 31,593,
    citing Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Corp., 91 FERC
    p 61,031 (2000).
    Finding that its prior policy was based on a "metaphysical
    distinction" between a single point and two points adjacent to
    each other, FERC decided in the present orders that, to
    advance its new segmentation policy, it would no longer apply
    "prior restrictions" on using forwardhauls and backhauls to
    the same point.  Order No. 637-A at 31,592-93.
    The Commission's characterization of the distinction as
    "metaphysical" may in the end be correct, but it is not self-
    evident:  The number of angels that can stand on the head of
    one pin seems physically (rather than metaphysically) differ-
    ent from the question how many can stand on two.  Although
    the Commission observed that the pipelines seeking rehear-
    ing had not shown that they faced "any operational problems
    in permitting such flexibility," Order No. 637-B at 61,166,
    that issue is distinct from the problem of an inadequately
    supported contract modification.  Accordingly, we remand
    this issue to the Commission so that it can more clearly
    confront the question of whether this aspect of the orders can
    stand without additional findings.
    3. Virtual pooling points.  INGAA attacks the Commis-
    sion's decision that segmentation be permitted at "any trans-
    action points on the pipeline system, including virtual transac-
    tion points, such as paper pooling points, as well as at
    physical interconnect points."  Order No. 637-A at 31,591-92.
    It argues that this provision grants rights to certain shippers
    that are detrimental to other shippers, and interferes with
    how such "virtual" points actually operate.
    A "virtual point" is a paper or accounting point that does
    not physically exist on a pipeline.  One kind of a virtual point
    is a "paper pooling point," which is used for administrative
    purposes, i.e., to aggregate the receipt of gas from multiple
    physical points in a specific geographic area to simplify
    accounting.
    INGAA reasons that because a paper pooling point does
    not physically exist, a shipper cannot purchase the right to
    transport gas to or from that point along an identifiable
    capacity path:  a shipper that segments its capacity in relation
    to a paper pooling point could end up flowing gas on over-
    lapping physical segments of the pipeline and thus in excess
    of its contracted-for capacity.  For instance, if a pipeline runs
    from A to B to C to D, and B and C are physical points
    included in a single paper pool, then a shipper releasing the
    B-D capacity and retaining the A-C capacity would be mak-
    ing an overlapping use of the B-C segment.
    In Order No. 637-B the Commission acknowledged such a
    possibility, but nevertheless thought that "[t]o the extent such
    difficulties [i.e., overlapping] exist, they are more appropriate-
    ly examined in the compliance filings."  Order No. 637-B at
    61,165.  We understand this to mean that the Commission is
    serious in its commitment that it will not apply segmentation
    in a way that subjects pipelines to overlapping uses of main-
    line capacity.  Oddly, the Commission's brief writers seem to
    have adopted a rather in-your-face approach, declaring flatly
    that "[t]his type of segmentation does not result in the
    overlap of capacity and Petitioners have not explained other-
    wise."  FERC Br. at 111.
    Despite the brief, we take the Commission at its word--
    namely, that in the compliance process it will not apply the
    orders in such a way as to violate the precept against forcing
    overlaps on a pipeline.
    4. Reticulated pipelines.  In contrast to linear pipelines, a
    reticulated pipeline has a web-like structure.  Such pipelines
    are typically located in a single geographic area and have
    receipt and delivery points interspersed throughout the sys-
    tem.  Gas flows are not unidirectional but instead reverse
    direction depending on supply and demand.  They typically
    rely on "displacement" to make deliveries, that is, the substi-
    tution of gas at one point for gas received at another point.
    In the orders, the Commission recognized that "permitting
    segmentation on a reticulated pipeline can result in operation-
    al difficulties" because unplanned changes in flow patterns
    might threaten their operational integrity.  Order No. 637-A
    at 31,591;  see also Northwest Pipeline, 69 FERC p 61,171 at
    61,677 (1994) ("certain offsetting volumes must flow in one
    direction in order for customers shipping in the opposite
    direction to receive service,").  But it nonetheless said that
    these pipelines must "permit segmentation to the maximum
    extent possible given the configuration of [the] system," Or-
    der No. 637 at 31,304, and must "optimize [their] system[s] to
    provide maximum segmentation rights while devising appro-
    priate mechanisms to ensure operational stability," Order No.
    637-A at 31,591, a duty that may include "allowing segmenta-
    tion on straight-line [non-reticulated] portions of the pipe-
    line," Order No. 637-B at 61,165.
    INGAA first contends that it is arbitrary and capricious for
    FERC to apply the segmentation rule to reticulated pipelines,
    because these pipelines have no identifiable capacity paths to
    segment, and therefore "segmentation is not possible on
    reticulated systems."  INGAA Segmentation Br. at 27.  But
    the Commission's only clear language requiring segmentation
    in this context explicitly focused on "straight-line portions of
    the pipeline."  Order No. 637-B at 61,165.  Insofar as its
    other, vaguer language invites extreme interpretation, we
    understand it to be qualified as always by the operational
    feasibility criterion.  As we cannot possibly divine the vague
    phrases' operational meaning, the claim is now unripe.  See
    Abbott Labs. v. Gardner, 
    387 U.S. 136
    , 149 (1967) (stating that
    to evaluate ripeness, a court must consider "both the fitness
    of the issues for judicial decision and the hardship to the
    parties of withholding court consideration"), overruled on
    other grounds, Califano v. Sanders, 
    430 U.S. 99
     (1977);  Rio
    Grande Pipeline Co. v. FERC, 
    178 F.3d 533
    , 540 (D.C. Cir.
    1999) ("[A] case is ripe when it presents a concrete legal
    dispute [and] no further factual development is essential to
    clarify the issues ... [and] there is no doubt whatever that
    the challenged [agency] practice has crystallized sufficiently
    for purposes of judicial review.") (internal citation and quota-
    tion marks omitted).
    The same unripeness applies to INGAA's claims regarding
    a special class of reticulated pipelines, those employing "post-
    age stamp" rate structures.  In such pipelines, as for first
    class mail in the U.S. postal system, the same transportation
    rate applies to all transactions.  This contrasts with the usual
    rate structure for non-reticulated pipelines, and for some
    reticulated ones, under which the rate depends on the zones
    through which the gas passes.  INGAA argues that in this
    context segmentation grants shippers extra-contractual rights
    and is an unexplained and, therefore, arbitrary and capricious
    departure from prior policy.
    Order No. 637-A provides that, "[o]n reticulated pipelines
    with postage stamp rate structures, where shippers have no
    specifically defined paths, the pipeline should permit firm
    shippers to use all points on the system and to use or release
    segments of capacity between any two points, while continu-
    ing to use other segments of capacity."  Order No. 637-A at
    31,591.  The Commission justifies this policy on the ground
    that shippers on such pipelines pay "for the use of the entire
    pipeline in their rates."  
    Id.
      Finally, the Order notes that, if
    these pipelines find that providing segmentation "would be
    more feasible with a redesign of its rates, the pipeline can
    make a Section 4 filing to establish rates that it considers
    more consonant with segmentation."  
    Id.
    INGAA suggests that under this language the Commission
    may intend to allow shippers "to multiply their capacity
    rights."  INGAA Segmentation Br. at 28.  The language is
    indeed susceptible of such a reading;  taken at the extreme, it
    is as if the Post Office, having agreed to carry letters
    anywhere for 34 cents, including from New York to San
    Francisco, could be obliged to carry one letter from New
    York to Chicago, and another from Chicago to San Francisco,
    all for one 34-cent stamp.  The Commission's allusion to new
    filings under s 4 only heightens the impression of overween-
    ing agency ambition.  Can the Commission contemplate that
    it will use s 5 in compliance proceedings to compel costly
    changes in pipeline operation, leaving the pipeline to recover
    the resulting costs by filing under s 4?  But to conjure up
    such activities is not to say that the Commission's language
    compels them.  Until the words are implemented, claims
    based on this language are unripe.
    5. Discounts.  Under typical discount agreements, pipe-
    lines agree to provide shippers with services at discounted
    rates, but with those rates limited to agreed-upon receipt and
    delivery points.  Before these orders, the Commission's policy
    was that "discounts granted with respect to specific points do
    not apply when shippers change points."  Order No. 637-A at
    31,595.  This meant that when a shipper released part of its
    capacity, the releasing or replacement shipper was subject to
    the non-discounted rate if it exercised its right to designate
    different receipt or delivery points.  
    Id.
    Some of the Commission's language here appears to contra-
    dict the prior view.  For example, the Commission said that
    "within the path" of a shipper's contract, it "should be permit-
    ted to ... segment capacity along that [discounted] capacity
    path without incurring additional charges," i.e., without hav-
    ing to pay the non-discounted rate.  Order No. 637-A at
    31,595.  And it said that the reason a discount should apply to
    segmented transactions is that, once a long-line pipeline has
    discounted transportation to a downstream delivery point, "it
    has foreclosed the possibility of selling that capacity" at a
    higher rate to an upstream delivery point.  "[T]he discount,
    therefore, should apply to all transactions within the capacity
    path."  Order No. 637-B at 61,167.
    Several aspects of discounting are affected here.  First, the
    Commission refers to discounts granted because of pipeline
    "underutiliz[ation]," Order No. 637-A at 31,595.  When a
    pipeline discounts some capacity from A to C solely for that
    reason, presumably the discount is consistent, in the pipe-
    line's view, with the levels of demand in even the most heavily
    used segment.  Thus the observation quoted above from
    Order No. 637-B.
    But the Commission also recognized that discounts may be
    given because of differing competitive conditions.  It said that
    pipelines "will still be able to discount transportation to a
    particular customer who has competitive options to stimulate
    throughput without necessarily offering the same discount to
    other customers who are not similarly situated."  Order No.
    637-B at 61,168.  The difference in conditions might be
    customer-specific (e.g., a fuel-switchable industrial user) or
    segment-specific (e.g., a pipeline might be subject to severe
    competition between points A and C, but to little between
    points A and B (the latter being an intermediate point
    between A and C)).
    Finally, of course, the whole capacity release program as a
    general matter creates possibilities for arbitrage.  If a high-
    elasticity customer is completely free to transfer capacity to a
    low-elasticity one, offering price variations not based on cost
    becomes a far less tempting pipeline strategy.
    But again the issue is unripe, as the orders leave us quite
    unclear just what will emerge from all this.  Besides the
    already quoted commitment to preserve at least some compe-
    tition-based discounts, the Commission said that "it did not
    intend to change the rules regarding selective discounting."
    Order No. 637-B at 61,168.  We are in no position to assess
    the legality of the Commission's intentions, which will only be
    revealed in future proceedings.
    III. Secondary Point Capacity Allocation
    In Order No. 637-A FERC changed the rule for allocating
    mainline capacity leading to secondary delivery points--the
    additional points to which a firm shipper may wish to deliver
    gas besides its primary delivery location.  Order No. 637-A
    at 31,597.  Because shipments to such secondary points are
    normally accorded lower priority than deliveries to primary
    points, this service is subordinate to "firm" service during
    periods of congestion.  Order No. 637 at 31,304-05.  In the
    past, the Commission's rule governing secondary point capaci-
    ty allocation during constrained periods was the pro rata
    method.  Shippers whose primary delivery points were locat-
    ed in the same rate zone--a geographical area treated as a
    single point for rate purposes--had equal entitlements to the
    capacity needed to reach secondary points in that zone;  if
    they requested more secondary point capacity than was avail-
    able, it was allocated pro rata.  
    Id.
    The Commission illustrates the issue with the following
    diagram:
    Diagram not available electronically.
    Order No. 637-B at 31,597.  On the facts given, the old rule
    gave shippers 1 and 2 equal rights to the mainline capacity
    needed to ship to B, with their entitlements being inferior to
    shipper 3's.
    In Order No. 637-B, however, the Commission concluded
    that a different approach would better assure allocation of the
    capacity to the shipper valuing it most highly.  Under its new
    "within-the-path" rule, all shippers for whom the point is
    within their capacity path--that is, the shippers whose pri-
    mary delivery points are downstream of the point at which
    secondary rights are sought--receive preference over ship-
    pers for whom the point is not in their capacity path.  In the
    example above, then, shipper 2 would have a straightforward
    priority over shipper 1, though even shipper 2 would be
    subordinate to shipper 3.  Order No. 637-B at 31,597.  The
    Commission's theory was that the priority for shipper 2 would
    reduce transaction costs and, by establishing shipper 2 as a
    more vital competitor (with shipper 3) as a source of capacity,
    would enhance competition.
    Two interstate pipelines owned by Enron (collectively, "En-
    ron") now challenge the new rule for allocating capacity at
    secondary points on a number of grounds.  We do not reach
    those issues because Enron has not made an adequate show-
    ing that it is aggrieved by FERC's ruling.  As it lacks both
    statutory and constitutional standing to bring this petition, we
    dismiss it for lack of jurisdiction.
    The NGA requires, as a precondition to judicial review, that
    a party be "aggrieved" by the order in question, 15 U.S.C.
    s 717r(b);  El Paso Natural Gas Co. v. FERC, 
    50 F.3d 23
    , 26
    (D.C. Cir. 1995), and all parties trying to invoke the jurisdic-
    tion of federal courts must satisfy Article III's requirements
    of constitutional standing.  "Common to both of these thresh-
    olds is the requirement that petitioners establish, at a mini-
    mum, 'injury in fact' to a protected interest."  Shell Oil Co. v.
    FERC, 
    47 F.3d 1186
    , 1200 (D.C. Cir. 1995).  To show "injury
    in fact," a litigant must allege harm that is both "concrete and
    particularized" and "actual or imminent, not conjectural or
    hypothetical."  Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    ,
    559-61 (1992).
    Enron is a pipeline, not a shipper, so no injury leaps to the
    eye.  But it proposes two theories of injury, one based on the
    effect of the rule on competition, the other on administrative
    burdens generated by the rule.  Neither is persuasive.
    First Enron suggests the new method will diminish compe-
    tition in the supply of capacity by decreasing the number of
    possible suppliers.  The reduced competition would cause
    higher gas prices in end-use markets, reducing overall gas
    consumption, and thereby reducing pipeline throughput.
    Where a claimed injury stems from changes in levels of
    competition, this court ordinarily requires claimants to show
    that "a challenged agency action ... will almost surely cause
    [them] to lose business."  El Paso, 
    50 F.3d at 27
     (emphasis
    supplied);  see also D.E.K. Energy Co. v. FERC, 
    248 F.3d 1192
    , 1195 (D.C. Cir. 2001).  Enron relies on a simple account
    under which "eliminating competitors reduces competition."
    Enron Repl. Br. at 5;  Enron Br. at 11.  Everything else
    being equal, that is likely a sound assumption.  But the
    Commission here thought--and Enron has not shown the
    contrary--that matters were more complex.
    The Commission's stated rationale for adopting its new
    method was that the pro rata method "does not provide for
    the most efficient use of mainline capacity or promote capaci-
    ty release because it creates uncertainty as to how much
    mainline capacity any shipper seeking to use secondary points
    will receive."  Order No. 637-A at 31,597.  As a result the
    secondary rights were not tradable, and there was no effec-
    tive competitor to the primary rights holder as a seller of
    secondary rights.  
    Id.
      By comparison, under the within-the-
    path method, the fewer shippers to whom secondary rights
    would be awarded would hold--and thus be able to offer in
    the market--a useful entitlement to service.  
    Id.
      In FERC's
    opinion, this increase in certainty of entitlement would actual-
    ly improve competition.  
    Id.
    We need not pass on the ultimate merits of the Commis-
    sion's reasoning to say that Enron's contrary theory fails to
    show the requisite probability of harm.  Basically, the show-
    ing is far too conjectural to establish "a substantial (if un-
    quantifiable) probability of injury," D.E.K. Energy, 
    248 F.3d at 1195
    , as demanded by El Paso's "almost surely" test.
    Alternatively, Enron claims that that the company will
    incur "significant expense" in implementing the new method
    because it must modify its computer systems "in order to
    accommodate multiple levels of secondary point priorities."
    Enron Repl. Br. at 3.  While compliance costs often consti-
    tute an injury-in-fact, Enron's argument here rests solely on
    a conclusory, vague and unsupported assertion of cost in-
    creases.  See Enron Repl. Br. at 3.  Compare Virginia v.
    American Booksellers Ass'n, Inc., 
    484 U.S. 383
    , 392 (1988)
    (standing where plaintiff "will have to take significant and
    costly compliance measures or risk criminal prosecution");
    see also 
    id. at 389, 391
     (detailing steps needed for compli-
    ance).  Thus we dismiss the petition for want of jurisdiction.
    IV.  Penalties
    Order No. 637 changed the rules governing what pipelines
    may do when shippers overrun their transportation entitle-
    ments (by shipping more gas than they have contracted for)
    or create physical imbalances in the pipeline system (for
    example, by withdrawing more--or less--gas from the sys-
    tem than they have tendered).  Previously, in the interests of
    deterrence, see Order No. 636 at 30,424, pipelines were
    allowed to enforce their contractual rights by imposing appro-
    priate penalties, that is, charges that "reflect[ed] more than
    simply the costs incurred as a result of the [shipper's] con-
    duct," Order No. 637-A at 31,610;  cf. id. at 31,608;  Order No.
    637-B at 61,171.  The penalties were enforceable whether or
    not the offending shipper's behavior caused any actual harm
    to the pipeline's system or threatened its reliability.  See,
    e.g., Natural Gas Pipeline Co., 63 FERC p 61,293 at 63,052
    (1993).
    Order No. 637 sharply restricted pipelines' ability to assess
    penalties.  FERC amended its regulations to provide:
    Penalties.  A pipeline may include in its tariff transpor-
    tation penalties only to the extent necessary to prevent
    the impairment of reliable service.  Pipelines may not
    retain net penalty revenues, but must credit them to
    shippers in a manner to be prescribed in the pipeline's
    tariff.
    18 C.F.R. s 284.12(c)(2)(v);  Order No. 637 at 31,314.  As
    FERC said, "This requirement may result in either no penal-
    ties for non-critical days [days when the pipeline is not
    expected to operate at or near full capacity] or higher toler-
    ances and lower penalties for non-critical as opposed to
    critical days."  Order No. 637 at 31,317.  In addition, the rule
    denies pipelines the right to retain revenues from penalties,
    instead requiring them to credit them to shippers.  Id. at
    31,309.
    In addition, Order No. 637 required pipelines to provide
    "imbalance management services," such as parking (i.e., tem-
    porary storage) and lending of gas, and greater information
    about the imbalance status of a shipper and the system as a
    whole, in order to give shippers positive incentives--in lieu of
    penalties--to manage or prevent imbalances.  Order No. 637
    at 31,309;  18 C.F.R. s 284.12(c)(2)(iii).  The Order also al-
    lowed pipelines to retain revenues generated from these
    imbalance management services until the pipeline's next rate
    case, as would be true for other new pipeline services initi-
    ated between rate filings.  Order No. 637 at 31,310.  Thus it
    used carrots with the pipelines to encourage them to use
    carrots with their customers.
    We deal here with a basic attack on FERC's policy change,
    as well as specific claims relating to the treatment of reve-
    nues from such penalties as remain and to the new imbalance
    services.
    A.   INGAA attack on penalty limits
    INGAA and several pipelines (again collectively, "INGAA")
    claim that in adopting its new penalty rule the Commission
    did not make the required s 5 findings or exercise reasoned
    decisionmaking, and that the new rule unlawfully infringes on
    pipelines' ability to enforce their contractual rights.
    When FERC seeks affirmatively to displace a pipeline's
    existing rates or tariff provisions, the previously stated re-
    quirements of s 5 of the NGA apply.  But there is no
    requirement that FERC use the "magic words" of s 5 itself,
    Rhode Island Consumers' Council v. Fed. Power Comm'n,
    
    504 F.2d 203
    , 213 n.19 (D.C. Cir. 1974), and indeed one would
    search the relevant portions of Order No. 637 in vain for
    words such as "just" or "unjust."
    But the Commission did find that the existing penalty
    system was "not the most efficient system of maintaining
    pipeline reliability," and that it "skewed" the market choices
    that shippers and pipelines would otherwise make.  Order
    No. 637 at 31,306-07.  As we understand the core of the
    Commission's analysis, it was that excessive pipeline penal-
    ties, and skimpy pipeline "tolerances" (i.e., allowances for
    contract excesses that would not generate penalties), made
    shippers unduly gun-shy.  Excessive disincentives led them to
    oversubscribe to firm pipeline capacity, or underuse their
    entitlements, in order to assure a decent safety margin.
    Order No. 637 at 31,308;  Order No. 637-A at 31,607 &
    nn.150, 152.  Such consequences would seem to follow exces-
    sive penalties virtually as a matter of definition, but in
    addition there was testimony as to the behavior of prudent
    shippers.  See, e.g., id. at 31,607 n. 152.  And in fact INGAA
    does not even try to dispute that the pre-existing penalties
    produced these results.
    Aside from being concerned with the adverse effects of the
    penalties, the Commission also concluded that the prior re-
    gime was ineffective in fulfilling what was supposed to be its
    "intended purpose," Order No. 637-A at 31,608--deterring
    shipper conduct that actually threatened the integrity of the
    pipeline system at critical times.  Order No. 637 at 31,308;
    Order No. 637-A at 31,598, 31,607 & n.152.  Because the
    penalty levels were disconnected from threats to reliability,
    they did not offer incentives in any way calibrated to those
    threats.  Indeed, penalties were evidently often higher on
    systems where and at times when extra gas posed no threat
    to reliability at all, than on systems with such threats.
    It was thus the Commission's conclusion that it should
    henceforth tie the imposition of penalties to behavior actually
    causing a threat to system integrity.  Order No. 637 at
    31,308.  And, to eliminate market distortions caused by "the
    use of penalties as a substitute for obtaining services," id. at
    31,314, the Commission believed that it was necessary for
    pipelines (or third parties) to directly provide shippers with
    the service flexibility they had been obtaining indirectly via
    their responses to the penalty regime;  thus the requirement
    of separate imbalance management services at cost-based
    pricing.  Id. at 31,309.  Finally, the Commission's new rules
    on disposition of the revenues--disallowing pipeline retention
    of penalties but allowing retention of the proceeds of new
    balancing services--obviously reinforced its basic policy judg-
    ment.
    We are not altogether clear why the Commission's re-
    sponse to excess penalties was to bar all penalties not direct-
    ed to threats to reliability, and otherwise to switch to "car-
    rots."  One might suppose that the most obvious response to
    excessive penalties would be to place ceilings on them--
    calibrated to the damage inflicted by the penalized behavior,
    whether it took the form of a threat to reliability or not.  This
    option is not discussed, and petitioners neither suggest it nor
    fault the Commission for its failure to consider it.  Perhaps
    the answer is that in fact there are no injuries other than the
    ones to system reliability.  That in turn would seem to
    depend on the actual treatment of--and incentives facing--
    shippers who overrun their contract entitlements under cir-
    cumstances posing no threat to reliability.
    In fact, the Commission's limits on penalties (as they are
    understood in this regulatory regime) appear to leave poten-
    tial contract breaches covered by appropriate sanctions.
    When a shipper incurs a contract overrun, it must still pay for
    the interruptible service it has used for the surplus.  Order
    637-B at 61,172.  Moreover, as was conceded by INGAA's
    counsel at oral argument--and confirmed by Commission
    counsel--FERC's current open access rules require a pipeline
    to make its spare capacity available to any shipper who
    desires it, at the interruptible rate.  Tr. Oral Arg. at 106-07.
    Thus, a shipper that overruns its contract and suddenly seeks
    additional service is apparently treated (apart from penalties)
    just the same as any unscheduled interruptible shipper.
    "The capacity that a shipper would obtain by means of an
    unauthorized overrun is not firm service, but is interruptible
    service that is subject to bumping and is limited by the
    capacity available at the time."  Order No. 637-B at 61,171.
    Indeed, the firm shipper that overruns its entitlement in a
    non-peak time may be worse off than a garden-variety inter-
    ruptible shipper, as the latter may enjoy discounts evidently
    unavailable to the overrunning customer.  Tr. Oral Arg. at
    108.
    Likewise, a shipper who runs an imbalance must either
    make-up or pay for the gas he took.  Order No. 637-B at
    61,171-72.  Although the record seems not to explain what
    price will govern such a transaction, we were told at oral
    argument that the offending shipper might be obliged to pay
    a higher price than a user with similar needs who chooses
    instead to take advantage of the imbalance management
    services or avoids creating an imbalance altogether by pur-
    chasing excess gas from another shipper.  Tr. Oral Arg. at
    111.
    Thus, even with penalties now largely gone, pipelines are
    no more forced to provide extra-contractual services under
    the new rule than they were under the old one.  What has
    changed is merely the remedy for breach.  Nor are pipelines
    turned into "common carriers" required to provide service to
    anyone regardless of whether they have a contract;  their
    duties in this respect are set out in the previously adopted
    open access rules.
    The rules governing shippers who exceed their contract
    entitlement also answer another concern of INGAA's:  that
    because of the limited availability of penalties, shippers will
    not contract and pay for an adequate level of firm service but
    instead will simply overrun their contract capacity as needed.
    In fact, in non-peak times such shippers will do no better than
    interruptible shippers (and perhaps worse, because of the
    discount issue).  And since overruns during peak times can
    still trigger penalties, shippers who need guaranteed service
    should not be tempted to contract for less capacity than what
    they expect to need.  Order No. 637-B at 61,171.
    INGAA also accuses FERC of failing to engage in reasoned
    decisionmaking because of what INGAA perceives as a logical
    disconnect between FERC's stated goal--elimination of the
    inefficiencies of the pre-existing penalty system--and
    FERC's adoption of carrots as the cure.  INGAA suggests
    that the pipelines' mandated proffer of imbalance services is
    hardly equivalent to penalties, for on non-critical days, when
    penalties are not an option, shippers will have no incentive to
    use or pay for imbalance services.  As they will continue to
    engage in creating overruns and imbalances, the Commis-
    sion's rule is internally inconsistent and will not further
    FERC's stated goals.
    In large part this is answered by our earlier discussion of
    the incentives faced by shippers under the new regime;  the
    Commission appears to have successfully rebutted INGAA's
    prediction that the curtailment of penalties would harm any
    pipeline interest that deserved protection.  That the Commis-
    sion's hope and expectation of a flourishing market in balanc-
    ing-related services may prove unwarranted does not under-
    mine that essential conclusion.
    Thus the Commission made generic findings in support of
    its action under s 5, see TAPS, 225 F.3d at 687-88, which
    were backed by substantial evidence, and its conclusions met
    the standard for reasoned decisionmaking.
    B. Attacks on revenue-crediting provisions
    On one hand a group of pipelines (not joined by INGAA)
    attack the Commission's requirement that they flow penalty
    revenues to non-offending shippers, and on the other several
    shippers and state consumer advocates argue that the pipe-
    lines should not be allowed to retain the revenues from the
    new imbalance services.  Neither attack is well conceived.
    The pipelines claim that (1) the Commission did not find
    that previously approved tariffs and settlements, which im-
    posed no such refunding mechanism, were unjust and unrea-
    sonable;  and (2) the Commission justified the refund require-
    ment "as an incentive for pipelines not to impose penalties,"
    whereas pipelines should actually be given incentives to im-
    pose the penalties allowed by the new rule, as they necessari-
    ly apply only when shipper conduct threatens system reliabili-
    ty.
    The first argument appears erroneously to assume that
    "magic words" are required under s 5;  as we've said, they
    are not.  And as we've already explained, the Commission's
    discussion of penalties in Order No. 637 reflects compliance
    with s 5.  In substance the Commission's finding of unsound
    incentives, see Order No. 637 at 31,316, amounts to a finding
    that the prior method was unjust and unreasonable.
    The pipelines' critique of the Commission's rationale mis-
    conceives its purpose.  FERC's goal here was not to discour-
    age pipelines from imposing penalties at all but rather to
    motivate them "to impose only necessary and appropriate
    penalties," and to develop non-penalty mechanisms to deal
    with imbalance problems.  Order No. 637 at 31,316.  Requir-
    ing refunds of penalty proceeds simply removes an incentive
    to impose unnecessary penalties.  See Order No. 637 at
    31,316 (stating that FERC was "requiring penalty revenue
    crediting not so much for the purpose of preventing penalties
    from becoming a profit center, but more for the purpose of
    eliminating any financial incentives on the part of pipelines to
    impose penalties that would naturally hinder the pipelines'
    movement toward reliance on the provision of imbalance
    services....").
    On the other side, the shippers first object to pipeline
    retention of revenues from imbalance services on the theory
    that because Order No. 637 requires pipelines to develop such
    services in any event, no financial incentive is necessary.  But
    the directive to develop such services is not inherently self-
    executable.  Unless the Commission were ready to take on a
    large new program for micromanagement of pipelines, it
    makes complete sense for it to rely on positive incentives
    instead of punitive measures to promote compliance.  Be-
    sides, as the Commission explained, its decision on this point
    is entirely consistent with its current general policy of allow-
    ing pipelines to retain revenues from "a new service initiated
    between rate cases."  Id. at 31,310.
    Finally the shippers assert that the Commission's policy
    here is inconsistent with two recent Commission decisions
    requiring pipelines to share new-service revenues with ship-
    pers, citing Trunkline Gas Co., 79 FERC p 61,326 at 62,427-
    28 (1997), and Columbia Gas Transmission Corp., 64 FERC
    p 61,365 at 63,530 (1993).  But these cases involved sharing
    interruptible service revenues under conditions where the
    Commission believed there was a substantial risk of overre-
    covery by the pipelines in question.  The petitioners have not
    shown that any such conditions obtain here.
    V.   The Right of First Refusal
    As part of its long-running effort to devise balanced rules
    to protect long-term capacity holders from abandonment of
    service when their transportation contracts with pipelines
    expire, FERC also made changes to its "right of first refusal"
    rules.  In some respects, it narrowed those rights, limiting
    their benefit to long-term shippers paying the maximum tariff
    rate.  In other ways, it expanded them, allowing incumbent
    shippers to exercise the right of first refusal by bidding for a
    mere five-year term.  This contrasted with the 20-year term
    that it had set in Order No. 636, which gave the pipelines
    considerably more stability and which, in UDC, 
    88 F.3d at 1140-41
    , we found inadequately justified.  Again, the agency's
    actions have been challenged from both sides, as going too far
    and not far enough.
    A.   Five-year matching cap and "regulatory" right of first
    refusal
    Section 7(b) of the Natural Gas Act generally prohibits
    "natural-gas compan[ies]" from ceasing to provide service to
    their existing customers unless, after "due hearing," FERC
    finds "that the present or future public convenience or neces-
    sity permit such abandonment."  15 U.S.C. s 717f(b).  Seek-
    ing to streamline the regulatory process, the Commission in
    Order No. 436 attempted to dispense with these individual-
    ized hearings by giving pipelines broad prospective authority
    to refuse shippers continued service on the expiration of their
    contracts (in the absence of a contractual right of renewal).
    See American Gas Ass'n v. FERC, 
    912 F.2d 1496
    , 1513-14
    (D.C. Cir. 1990) ("AGA").  Under this mechanism, the Com-
    mission makes ex ante generic findings of public convenience
    and necessity, and issues a blanket certificate that allows a
    pipeline to terminate service at the end of the shipper's
    contract term.  See 18 C.F.R. s 284.221(d);  cf. Mobil Oil
    Exploration & Producing Southeast, Inc. v. United Distrib.
    Cos., 
    498 U.S. 211
    , 227 (1991) (allowing the Commission to
    issue "general, prospective, and conditional" abandonment
    approvals under s 7(b)).
    When this court addressed the merits of the issue in AGA,
    we remanded the rule for lack of an adequate explanation of
    how it could be squared with the Commission's basic duty to
    protect gas customers from "pipeline exercise of monopoly
    power."  AGA, 
    912 F.2d at 1518
    .  But we noted that all
    parties recognized that such a procedure made sense for at
    least some transactions, most notably interruptible services
    and short-term contracts.  See 
    id.
    In Order No. 636, the Commission responded to AGA and
    modified its earlier approach by supplementing pre-granted
    abandonment authority with a right of first refusal for those
    shippers the Commission considered to be captive and thus in
    need of protection--those operating under a firm contract
    longer than one year.  Order No. 636 at 30,446-48.  The right
    entitled a protected shipper with an expiring contract to
    retain its service from the pipeline under a new contract by
    matching the rate and duration offered by the highest com-
    peting bid--up to the maximum "just and reasonable" rate
    approved by FERC.  On reconsideration, the Commission
    also adopted a 20-year cap on the length of the term that
    existing shippers may be required to match.  Order No. 636-
    A at 30,631.
    On review, though we generally upheld pre-granted aban-
    donment as supplemented with the right of first refusal, see
    UDC, 
    88 F. 3d at 1140
    , we thought that the 20-year cap was
    not justified by the record and remanded it for further
    explanation.  
    Id. at 1140-41
    .  We expressed concern that
    contract duration could become a surrogate for price (which,
    of course, is capped), thereby allowing new customers to
    outbid existing ones by offering longer terms than they would
    in a truly competitive market.  
    Id. at 1140
    .  In addition, while
    FERC had picked 20 years in reliance on actual contracts, we
    questioned whether the subset of contracts relied on--involv-
    ing the construction of new facilities--was properly represen-
    tative.  
    Id. at 1141
    .  But because the selection of any dura-
    tion for the matching cap would be "necessarily somewhat
    arbitrary," we said we would "defer to the Commission's
    expertise if it provides substantial evidence to support its
    choice and responds to substantial criticisms of that figure."
    
    Id.
     at 1141 n.45.
    On remand, FERC decided to reduce the 20-year cap to
    one of five years, pointing to what it perceived as the current
    industry trend in favor of shorter term shipping contracts.
    Order No. 636-C, Order on Remand, Pipeline Service Obli-
    gations and Revisions to Regulations Governing Self-Imple-
    menting Transportation Under Part 284 of the Commission's
    Regulations, 78 FERC p 61,186 at 61,773-74 (1997) ("Order
    No. 636-C").  Despite objections from the pipelines, FERC
    summarily affirmed its decision in Order No. 636-D, Order on
    Rehearing, Pipeline Service Obligations and Revisions to
    Regulations Governing Self-Implementing Transportation
    Under Part 284 of the Commission's Regulations, 83 FERC
    p 61,210 at 61,925 (1998).
    In Order No. 637 the Commission again confirmed the five-
    year period.  See id. at 31,339.  And it made clear that right
    of first refusal "includes the right of the existing shipper to
    elect to retain a volumetric portion of its capacity subject to
    the right of first refusal, and permit the pipeline's pregranted
    abandonment to apply to the remainder of the service."  Id.
    at 31,341.  Moreover, it said that the "regulatory" right of
    first refusal (i.e., the right supplied by this Commission
    mandate) was a minimum right, usable by an eligible shipper
    regardless of whether its contract provides a comparable
    right (by means, for example, of an "evergreen" clause), and
    that the shipper might exercise the regulatory right for part
    of the contract volume and any contract right for the rest.
    Id.;  Order No. 637-A at 31,647.  It also specified, most
    clearly in Order No. 637-A, that the right trumped any
    inconsistent provision in a pipeline's tariff.
    A group of interstate gas pipelines, led by INGAA (collec-
    tively "INGAA"), attack both retention of the five-year period
    and the Commission's explicit statement that the right of first
    refusal applies regardless of tariff provisions.
    1. Five-year cap.  In selecting a five-year cap on remand
    from UDC, the Commission gave little indication of why it
    thought that this new figure would appropriately balance the
    protection of captive customers with the furtherance of mar-
    ket values (putting capacity in the hands of those who value it
    most).  It relied entirely on the fact that five years was about
    the median length of all contracts of one year or longer
    between January 1, 1995 and October 1, 1996.  See Order No.
    636-C at 61,774, 61,792.  This contrasted with average dura-
    tions of about 10 years in the period from April 8, 1992 to
    October 1, 1996.
    Before confirming the five-year figure, the Commission
    itself raised doubt about its wisdom.  In Order No. 636-D, it
    acknowledged that "the pipelines have raised legitimate con-
    cerns about the practical effects of the five year term match-
    ing cap on the restructured market as it continues to evolve."
    Order No. 636-D at 61,926.  At that point the Commission
    decided to defer a final decision about the length of the cap
    until "a new gas policy initiative" (which proved to be Order
    No. 637), because at the time it had "no information concern-
    ing current conditions in the natural gas industry."  Order
    No. 636-D at 61,926.  In its NOPR for Order No. 637, FERC
    raised what it perceived were further problems with the five-
    year term, suggesting that it "provides a disincentive for an
    existing shipper to enter into a contract of more than five
    years, and results in a bias toward short-term contracts."
    Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, Regulation of Short-Term
    Natural Gas Transportation Services, FERC Stats. & Regs.
    [Proposed Regulations 1988-1998] (CCH) p 32,533 at 33,486
    (1998).  The Commission apparently was concerned that the
    cap would foster an "imbalance of risks between pipelines and
    existing shippers," allowing shippers indefinite control over
    pipelines' capacity, but giving the pipelines no corresponding
    protection.  Id. at 33,486-87.  Thus, it suggested, elimination
    of the cap would "foster efficient competition."  Id.  at 33,-
    487.  Moreover, as the pipeline petitioners point out, an
    artificial, regulation-induced shift toward shorter contracts
    increases risk for the pipelines;  this tends to raise their costs
    of capital and thus the overall cost of pipeline transportation.
    And, they note, it is odd--or at least requires explanation--
    why FERC should choose a median to function as a ceiling.
    But when FERC ultimately elected to retain the five-year
    period, it addressed none of the difficulties that it (or the
    pipelines) had previously invoked.  Instead, it simply referred
    back to Order No. 636-C's evidence about median contract
    lengths and remarked that "[n]one of the commenters pre-
    sented evidence to support the conclusion that a five year
    contract is atypical in the current market."  Order No. 637 at
    31,339;  see also Order No. 637-A at 31,664 (concluding
    simply that there "is no evidentiary basis at this time for
    changing the 5-year matching cap").  Thus the only evidence
    supporting FERC's final decision to choose a five-year cap
    was the original record--which on the Commission's own view
    was incomplete.  There is neither an affirmative explanation
    for the selection of five years, nor a response to its own or the
    pipelines' objections.
    We therefore vacate the five-year cap and remand the issue
    back to the agency.  The Commission may appear to be, vis-
    A-vis the court, like mankind to the gods:  As flies to wanton
    boys, they kill us for their sport.  Pick 20 years, and get
    reversed for failing to explain the length;  pick five, and get
    reversed for failing to explain the brevity.  But our acknowl-
    edgment of the difficulty of the policy choice, see UDC, 18
    F.3d at 1141 n.45, is fully intended.  The record simply lacks
    indicators of the Commission's seriously tackling that choice.
    2. Right of first refusal trumping tariff provisions.  Pipe-
    line counsel accuse the Commission of wrongfully creating a
    "regulatory" right of first refusal in Order No. 637.  We think
    their claim can better be comprehended as saying that the
    Commission in that order transformed its requirement of a
    right of first refusal, ensconced in the Commission's regula-
    tions since April of 1992, see Order No. 636 at 30,446-48;  see
    also s 284.221(d)(2)(ii), into a self-executing requirement.
    That is, their argument is comprehensible only as a claim that
    before Order No. 637 the right of first refusal had legal effect
    only to the extent that it was expressly embodied in a pipeline
    tariff.  In fact, Order No. 637 and Order No. 637-A appear to
    be the Commission's first express articulations of the idea
    that the regulatory right of first refusal trumps tariff provi-
    sions.  The first declares that eligible shippers have "the
    right of first refusal as provided in the Commission's regula-
    tions," Order No. 637 at 31,341, and the second expressly says
    that the regulatory right of first refusal is effective "regard-
    less of the terms of any tariff," Order No. 637-A at 31,646-47.
    The Commission says this was old hat, pointing to its
    statement back in August 1992, in the Order No. 636 series,
    when it said that shippers were assured the right to contin-
    ued service "even if the parties do not include an evergreen
    or rollover clause in their contract."  Order No. 636-A at
    30,628.  But the language makes no mention of tariffs, and
    thus appears not inconsistent with a view that tariff language,
    mandated by the Commission's regulations, is necessary to
    effect the right, or at least that inconsistent tariff language
    trumps.  More confusing is the Commission's decision in
    Algonquin Gas Transmission Co., 94 FERC p 61,383 (2001).
    There it first pointed to the language quoted above from
    Order No. 637, see 94 FERC at 62,439;  then, when its
    attention was called to contradictions between the regulatory
    right of first refusal as it conceived it, and the pipelines' tariff
    provisions (which had been approved as "just and reason-
    able"), it said that the solution was proceedings under s 5 of
    the NGA to consider forward-looking modification of the
    tariffs, see id. at 62,446.  Were the regulatory right self-
    executing, we do not understand why s 5 proceedings would
    be needed.  The Commission's brief on the issue sheds no
    light.
    Accordingly, though not vacating this aspect of Order No.
    637 or Order No. 637-A, we remand to the Commission for it
    to explain its current position, and, to the extent that lan-
    guage in the orders under review is legally unsustainable, to
    modify it.
    B.   Narrowing of the right of first refusal
    At the same time that the Commission expanded the de-
    gree of protection offered by right of first refusal by decreas-
    ing the maximum term that a protected shipper might be
    required to match, it also narrowed the right's scope in
    certain respects.  Specifically, Order No. 637 denied the right
    to all shippers operating under discounted rate contracts, i.e.,
    contracts with rates below the maximum approved by FERC.
    It also excluded "negotiated rate" contracts, i.e., ones whose
    terms differ in some respect from simple application of
    FERC-approved tariffs, and whose rates may fall below, at,
    or above the FERC-approved maximum rate.  (Both parties
    assume the existence of contracts with rates above the FERC
    ceiling, but neither explains how such a contract would even
    be lawful.)  Order No. 637 at 31,337;  Order No. 637-A at
    31,631-35.  The order grandfathered "[e]xisting" discounted
    contracts, so as to protect expectations based on the prior
    rule.  Order No. 637 at 31,341-42.
    In support of this modification the Commission offered two
    general grounds.  First, it portrayed the amendment as
    driven by the right of first refusal's "original purpose" to
    protect "long-term captive customers from the pipeline's mo-
    nopoly power."  Order No. 637 at 31,337.  "If the customer is
    truly captive," the Commission reasoned, "it is likely that its
    contract will be at the maximum rate."  Id.  And shippers
    who have alternatives in the marketplace, as typically evi-
    denced by their ability to negotiate discounts below the "just
    and reasonable" rate, do not need this type of regulatory
    protection.
    Second, because the right of first refusal necessarily cre-
    ates a disincentive for a shipper to enter into long-term
    contracts with the pipeline, and thus tends to saddle the
    pipeline with an unshared and uncompensated long-term in-
    vestment risk, see id. at 31,336, the Commission also thought
    that limiting the right of first refusal to those shippers paying
    the maximum rates was needed to "better balance the risks
    between the shipper and the pipeline," id. at 31,337.
    Petitioners objecting to the change assert that it is not
    supported by substantial evidence in the record, because the
    agency relied virtually entirely on its own supposition that
    "truly captive" shippers are "likely" to be paying maximum
    rates.  Furthermore, they say, the Commission rejected their
    examples to the contrary, which indicated that pipelines do
    sometimes offer discounted or negotiated rates to captive
    shippers.
    The FERC order indeed cited no studies or data.  But its
    conclusions seem largely true by definition.  Rate ceilings are
    set at the Commission's estimate of cost, thus roughly paral-
    leling what would occur in a competitive market.  The rates
    protect shippers whose choices are, by hypothesis, so limited
    that otherwise they would be ready to pay supra-competitive
    rates.  If they are paying even less than the cost-based rates,
    it appears a fair inference that they have better choices than
    are supposed by the system of agency-controlled rates.
    Or so one would think in the absence of specific, compelling
    rebuttal evidence.  What petitioners offer can hardly be
    called compelling, given the Commission's need to devise
    rules of general application.  To be sure, their comments
    listed several situations in which, they claimed, pipelines
    might offer long-term shippers discounted rate contracts even
    where they had market power.  For instance, a discount may
    be given "in consideration of entering into a settlement of a
    rate case or complaint proceeding," or "for an agreement of
    the shipper to shift to a less desirable or underutilized receipt
    point," or "to sign a longer contract, or to take an additional
    volume," or when a shipper is captive only for a part of his
    total load, or "to assist [an] industrial customer during times
    of financial troubles in order to keep the facility viable," or "in
    response to a perceived competitive threat from the proposed
    construction of a new pipeline."  Order No. 637-A at 31,633 &
    n.218.  Most of these appear to be cases that any shipper
    aware of FERC's rule can readily avoid;  this should be all
    affected shippers, as the rule applies only to contracts en-
    tered after its adoption.
    Petitioners in fact offer us no reasons to believe that their
    counter-examples are anything more than sporadic exceptions
    to the general rule on which FERC relied.  Generalizations
    are not automatically rendered invalid by examples to the
    contrary--the Commission is plainly entitled to respond with
    a general solution to general findings of a systematic condi-
    tion or problem, rather than proceed with a case-by-case
    approach.  AGD, 
    824 F.2d at 1008
     (stating that when FERC
    acts under its rulemaking authority to promulgate generic
    rate criteria, it is not required to adduce "empirical data for
    every proposition on which the selection depends");  TAPS,
    225 F.3d at 687-88 (approving FERC's open access rules on
    the basis of "general findings of systemic monopoly conditions
    and the resulting potential for anti-competitive behavior, rath-
    er than evidence of monopoly and undue discrimination on the
    part of individual utilities").  As petitioners have presented
    no data on how widespread the occurrence of discounting
    unrelated to market power is, they fail to undermine FERC's
    conclusion that "generally [ ] discounts are given to obtain or
    retain load that the pipeline could not transport at the
    maximum rate because of competition."  Order No. 637-A at
    31,633 (emphasis added).  Further, nothing they say suggests
    that shippers on notice of the rule will be unable to avoid its
    consequences and enjoy the right of first refusal--so long as
    they are willing to pay the price.
    As to FERC's second argument, relating to the balancing
    of risk, petitioners say only that they can see no problem in a
    pipeline being required to provide continuing service at maxi-
    mum rates.  Br. of Petitioners Opposing Limitations on the
    Right of First Refusal at 11.  But the Commission apparently
    was persuaded by pipeline commenters, who asserted that the
    prior regime "place[d] disproportionate risks on the pipelines
    because the pipeline must bear the risk of standing ready to
    serve the existing shipper indefinitely, while the shipper has
    no such obligation."  Order No. 637 at 31,336.  This seems
    clear to us:  We see how the Commission could find imbalance
    where one party, even though ready to commit itself to only a
    relatively short term (one year), thereby secures a perpetual
    right to service.  FERC clearly believed that limiting the
    right of first refusal to maximum rate contracts was a fair
    means of apportioning the risk, so that those customers who
    place a premium on the assured continuity of service must
    now pay for that protection by foregoing discounts, to which,
    of course, they have no regulatory entitlement.  Order No.
    637-A at 31,634.
    Petitioners finally object that a discounted or negotiated
    rate is determined at the outset of the contract and thus has
    no relationship to the market the long-term shipper faces at
    its end.  This seems to be beside the point.  The risk that
    market conditions would change always exists--the only issue
    is how it should be divided.  Under the new rules, any long-
    term shipper who wants the benefits of a right of first refusal
    can secure them by simply choosing to take service under the
    standard just and reasonable rates set by FERC.  The same
    goes for negotiated rates--all shippers are entitled to service
    under the generally applicable maximum tariffs, and pipelines
    cannot require captive customers to enter into negotiated rate
    agreements.  Order No. 637-B at 61,173.  No captive shipper
    is thus deprived of regulatory protection--all of them have
    the entitlement to place themselves within the protected class
    by simply paying agency-approved, cost-based rates.  As
    these are designed around existing levels of pipeline risk,
    they presumably include something approximating the neces-
    sary premium for the long-term rights these customers pre-
    fer.
    VI.  Discount Adjustments
    Standard FERC ratemaking, in its most simple form,
    involves projecting a "revenue requirement" for service on
    the pipeline's facilities and dividing the sum by projected
    "throughput."  The quotient is a maximum unit rate.  Al-
    though both the revenue requirement and throughput are
    largely based on past experience, both figures are projections.
    Where it is expected that some service will be sold at a
    discount from the maximum rate, there is obviously a prob-
    lem with assuming that throughput--itself enhanced by dis-
    counts--will, when multiplied by the maximum rate, yield the
    revenue requirement.  FERC's solution to the problem has
    been to make an offsetting downward adjustment in projected
    throughput.  Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Rate Design, et
    al., 47 FERC p 61,295 (1989) ("Policy Statement"), Order on
    Rehearing, 48 FERC p 61,122 (1989) ("Policy Statement Re-
    hearing").  In the rulemaking, and citing expert testimony in
    other proceedings, various shipper interests headed by Illi-
    nois Municipal Gas Agency ("IMGA") attacked this policy.  In
    the end FERC elected to do nothing on the subject;  though
    not rejecting the petitioners' claims on the merits, it conclud-
    ed that the issue was better left to another day.  IMGA and
    associated petitioners attack this decision not to act.
    Apart from the simple arithmetic described above, the
    theory underlying FERC's discount adjustment is as follows:
    By selectively discounting its services (at least so long as
    charging prices above marginal cost), a pipeline could in-
    crease actual throughput by attracting additional, non-captive
    customers;  as the fixed costs of service will be spread over
    more units, captive customers themselves will benefit in the
    end.  See Policy Statement Rehearing at 61,449.
    IMGA and kindred opponents of the policy see it in an
    entirely different light.  They argue that the demand for
    pipeline service is largely inelastic in the aggregate;  as a
    result the rate discounts do not produce an overall increase in
    throughput but merely shift it around among pipelines.  This
    is most plausible in the case of "gas-on-gas" competition,
    which does not involve luring any end-users away from
    competing fuels such as oil.  The upshot is that the competi-
    tive customers enjoy a decrease in rates and, the captives,
    instead of enjoying the supposed benefit, actually experience
    higher rates as the aggregate contribution of the competitive
    customers is reduced.
    Over the last eight years, and despite the efforts of captive
    customers such as those represented by IMGA, FERC has
    declined to rule on the issue in any kind of a comprehensive
    manner.  Some of its conduct is suggestive of a shell game.
    Thus, in resisting an IMGA petition for mandamus, see In re
    Illinois Municipal Gas Agency, No. 98-1347, 
    1998 WL 846667
     (D.C. Cir.  Nov. 24, 1998), FERC pointed to the fact
    that in its then-ongoing rulemaking proceedings, which were
    to eventually culminate in the order before us, the Commis-
    sion was specifically considering whether it should change the
    policy.  See Notice of Inquiry, Regulation of Interstate Natu-
    ral Gas Transportation Services, IV FERC Stats & Regs.
    [Notices] (CCH) p 35,533 at 35,744 (July 29, 1998).  But when
    the order finally emerged, it contained no ruling on the
    matter, except for yet another promise to consider the argu-
    ments sometime in the indefinite future.  Order No. 637 at
    31,267.
    IMGA and others here petition on the ground that FERC's
    continuation of the discount adjustment policy is unsupported
    by substantial evidence.  But this frames the issue imprecise-
    ly.  The policy originates in past decisions;  FERC did not
    here decide to continue it, in the sense of confronting the
    substance and making an affirmative decision;  it decided only
    that it would defer substantive treatment to a different--and
    necessarily later--context.  In essence, then, the claim is of a
    violation of the APA's mandate that an agency decide matters
    "within a reasonable time," 5 U.S.C. s 555(b), and calls on us
    to "compel agency action unlawfully withheld or unreasonably
    delayed," 
    id.
     at s 706(1).  Our review is highly deferential.
    See, e.g., In re Barr Laboratories, 
    930 F.2d 72
    , 74 (D.C. Cir.
    1991).
    The case is anomalous among wrongful delay cases in that
    every ratemaking where the policy is applied presents an
    opportunity for challenge and lawsuit by a party aggrieved by
    its continuation--parties whose name is legion if petitioners
    are correct.  In fact, since 1993, the discounting practice has
    been challenged on at least four separate occasions.  See,
    e.g., Southern Natural Gas, 65 FERC p 61,347 at 62,830
    (1993);  order on reh'g, 65 FERC p 61,348 at 62,843 (1993);
    Regulation of Negotiated Transp. Svs. of Natural Gas Pipe-
    lines, 74 FERC p 61,076 (1996), clarified, 74 FERC p 61,194
    (1996);  Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co., 76 FERC p 61,224
    (1996), modified, 77 FERC p 61,215 (1996), reh'g denied, 81
    FERC p 61,207 (1997);  Panhandle Eastern Pipeline Co., 78
    FERC p 61,011 (1997), reh'g denied, 81 FERC p 61,234 at
    61,973 (1997).  In none of these cases, however, did aggrieved
    parties seek judicial review of the policy's continued applica-
    tion.
    An agency undoubtedly enjoys broad discretion to deter-
    mine its own procedures, Mobil Oil Exploration & Producing
    Southeast, Inc., v. United Distrib. Cos., 
    498 U.S. 211
    , 230
    (1991), including whether to act by a generic rulemaking or
    by case-by-case adjudication, NLRB v. Bell Aerospace Co.,
    
    416 U.S. 267
    , 293 (1974).  But here FERC's arguments in
    justification of deferring the issue make reliance on individual
    pipeline ratemaking inappropriate--except perhaps as a palli-
    ative.  Indeed, the Commission itself stressed some points
    strongly suggesting the advantage of treating the issue in a
    generic rulemaking format.
    First, the Commission pointed out, Order No. 637 itself
    comprised a policy statement inviting pipelines to institute
    differentiated peak/off-peak rates.  Order No. 637 at 31,263,
    31,264, 31,288.  Not only would such differentiated rates tend
    to optimize the allocation of pipeline capacity, id. at 31,288,
    but they would "reduc[e] the need to make discount adjust-
    ments," id.  By its own terms, however, this point is only a
    partial answer.  On this issue Order No. 637 is only a policy
    statement, see Part VII, infra, and does not immediately
    introduce any seasonally differentiated rates.  And even the
    Commission sees seasonal differentiation only as "reducing,"
    not extinguishing, the practice of discounted rates.
    Second, the Commission explicitly treated the discount
    adjustment problem as linked to a host of other issues, to be
    examined together,
    including the use of negotiated terms and conditions of
    service, changes to SFV [straight fixed variable] rate
    design, whether to permit discount adjustments, whether
    to adopt rate reviews or refreshers, and whether to
    permit more market-based rates.
    Id. at 31,267.  Though obviously comprehensive policy-
    making is to be desired--it is one of the supposed benefits of
    delegations to such an agency as FERC--the Commission
    risks letting the best be the enemy of the good.  If the
    consequences of the discount adjustment are as drastic as
    petitioners claim, involving a tilt of billions of dollars of costs,
    see IMGA Br. at 15, then endless deferral of substantive
    consideration is hard to justify.  This is especially true where
    the customer class burdened by the tilt--the captives--is
    exactly the class that is the primary intended beneficiary of
    the regulatory system.  See UDC, 
    88 F.3d at 1123
    .
    On top of FERC's own stress on the case for comprehen-
    sive treatment, there are other points against sloughing the
    issue off to individual ratemakings.  Such proceedings could
    well lead to inequities as a result of competition between
    pipelines denied the adjustment and ones still able to practice
    it.  Although FERC could conceivably adopt some mechanism
    to handle such effects (such as, for example, starting s 5
    proceedings against pipelines competing with one denied the
    right to adjust), this appears at best awkward, leaving com-
    prehensive treatment markedly superior.
    In the end, however, we must deny the petition.  The
    Commission's reasons for treating the issue in a new rule-
    making with closely related issues are sound, even though
    tarnished a bit by the extensive prior delay.  And the avail-
    ability of individual ratemakings as a venue, though markedly
    inferior, is nonetheless a kind of safety valve.  As time drags
    on, however, Commission failure to address the issue on the
    merits will virtually set it up for a successful claim for undue
    delay under Telecommunications Research & Action Center
    v. FCC & United States, 
    750 F.2d 70
     (D.C. Cir. 1984).
    VII. Peak/Off-Peak Rates
    In Order No. 637 FERC announced that it would permit
    pipelines to charge seasonally variable rates for short-term
    transportation service instead of the previously required uni-
    form tariffs based on the average cost of providing service.
    Order No. 637 at 31,287.  Demand for natural gas is strong-
    est in the winter heating season, and the Commission thought
    that allowing prices to better reflect the differing peak and
    off-peak values of capacity would promote allocative efficiency
    and reduce the need for discounts.  Id. at 31,287-88;  Order
    No. 637-A at 31,574.  But it didn't commit itself to any one
    formula for these variations, leaving it instead up to individual
    pipelines to propose methods, either in general s 4 rate cases
    or in limited, pro forma tariff filings.  Order No. 637 at
    31,290.  Further, pipelines taking the latter route--where
    FERC's inquiry will be limited in scope to the question of
    whether the proposed peak/off-peak methodology (as opposed
    to the rates themselves) is just and reasonable, Order No.
    637-A at 31,578--were requested to include in their proposals
    a mechanism for sharing any resulting extra revenues with
    their long-term customers on a basis of at least equality.  Id.
    at 31,292.  The Commission also directed such pipelines to
    file a cost and revenue study within fifteen months of imple-
    menting a peak/off-peak regime, so as to enable the Commis-
    sion to determine if further rate adjustments are necessary.
    Id.
    A group of petitioners headed by Exxon Mobil Corporation
    (collectively, "Exxon") now fault both the authorization of
    limited s 4 proceedings and the revenue-crediting mechanism
    as failing to comply with the APA's notice and comment
    requirements.  In addition, Exxon contends that (a) limited
    s 4 proceedings fail to satisfy FERC's obligation under the
    NGA to ensure that the actual pipeline rates (and not only
    the methodology used for deriving them) are just and reason-
    able;  and (b) the exclusion of short-term shippers from the
    revenue-sharing arrangement is arbitrary and capricious.
    FERC contends that its entire discussion of seasonal rates
    here represents only a policy statement and therefore is
    neither binding on any party nor ripe for judicial review.  We
    agree.
    There is a "strong norm" against our reviewing "tentative
    agency positions," American Gas Ass'n v. FERC, 
    888 F.2d 136
    , 151-52 (D.C. Cir. 1989), of which, of course, a policy
    statement is a prime example.  In the orders under review,
    FERC explicitly casts the discussion of the peak/off-peak
    rates option as a policy statement rather than as "a rule that
    imposes any requirements on pipelines or changes current
    Commission regulations."  Order No. 637 at 31,289;  see also
    Order No. 637-A at 31,576.  Exxon disputes this character-
    ization, saying that insofar as Order No. 637 establishes
    specific procedures that pipelines must follow in implement-
    ing the rates, it is really a substantive rule.  We think that
    the Commission has the better argument.
    The distinction between substantive rule and policy state-
    ment is said to turn largely on whether the agency position is
    one of "present binding effect," i.e., whether it "constrains the
    agency's discretion."  McLouth Steel Products Corp. v.
    Thomas, 
    838 F.2d 1317
    , 1320 (D.C. Cir. 1988);  see also
    Community Nutrition Institute v. Young, 
    818 F.2d 943
    , 946
    & n.4 (D.C. Cir. 1987).  The agency's characterization, and its
    actual past applications of its statement (if any), are the key
    factors.  McLouth, 
    838 F.2d at 1320
    ;  Community Nutrition,
    
    818 F.2d at 946
    .
    Here the Commission has contemporaneously character-
    ized the policy as not encompassing an intent to issue any
    substantive rules on limitations on s 4 proceedings or on
    revenue-sharing schemes.  Cf. Molycorp, Inc. v. EPA, 
    197 F.3d 543
    , 546 (D.C. Cir. 1999) (focusing on whether agency
    intends to bind itself).  Such a characterization comes at a
    price to the Commission;  in applying the policy, it will not be
    able simply to stand on its duty to follow its rules.  Compare
    American Mining Congress v. Mine Safety & Health Ad-
    min., 
    995 F.2d 1106
    , 1111 (D.C. Cir. 1993) (explaining that if
    the agency succeeds in labeling a rule interpretive and thus
    shielded from judicial review at the outset, the rule will
    remain open to full scrutiny when agency action implementing
    the rule is challenged), with Grid Radio v. FCC, 
    278 F.3d 1314
    , 1320 (D.C. Cir. 2002) (stating that an agency "need not
    reevaluate well-worn policy arguments each time it imple-
    ments an existing [formal] rule in a narrow adjudicatory
    proceeding").  And if there have so far been any applications
    of the Commission's policy, neither side has seen fit to bring
    it to our attention.  So there is no basis here for any claim
    that the Commission has actually treated the policy with the
    de facto inflexibility of a binding norm.  Compare McLouth,
    
    838 F.2d at 1321
    .
    To be sure, Exxon correctly argues that the effect of a
    nominal "policy" disclaimer can still be negated under
    McLouth when an agency appears to undermine its professed
    flexibility by using imperative language--words such as "will"
    or "must."  Exxon Br. at 7 (citing McLouth, 
    838 F.2d at 1320-21
    ).  To this effect, Exxon contends that FERC's deci-
    sion to allow pro forma tariff filing and its requirement for
    pipelines to share excess revenues in a certain way ("the
    pipeline must include in its proposal a revenue sharing mech-
    anism," Order No. 637 at 31,292 (emphasis added)) do not
    meet the criteria for a policy statement.  
    Id.
      But given the
    Commission's broad discretion to direct the conduct of its
    proceedings, Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Corp. v. Natu-
    ral Resources Defense Council, Inc., 
    435 U.S. 519
    , 524-25, 543
    (1978), and its insistent characterization of the statement as
    mere policy, we reject the suggestion that these expressions
    establish a meaningful "right" for a pipeline to secure approv-
    al of variable rate proposals in limited s 4 proceedings.  See
    also Order No. 637-A at 31,576 (emphasizing Commission
    discretion over the conduct of its proceedings).  Likewise,
    insistence that pipelines submit particular types of revenue-
    sharing proposals doesn't give anyone a "right" to additional
    revenues, id. at 31,575;  the Commission, obviously, is entitled
    to request from the applicants any information it thinks may
    be helpful in deciding on their applications.  We thus agree
    with the Commission that its discussion of pro forma filings
    and revenue-sharing proposals was meant to merely give
    "guidance and direction [to pipelines] on how peak/off-peak
    rates could be implemented in the individual cases."  Id. at
    31,575.
    Apart from the implications of classifying the statement as
    merely one of policy, general concepts militate against view-
    ing petitioners' claims as ripe.  Following Toilet Goods Ass'n
    v. Gardner, 
    387 U.S. 158
    , 164 (1967), we have often postponed
    review for want of ripeness where "(1) delay would permit
    better review of the issues while (2) causing no significant
    hardship to the parties."  Northern Indiana Public Service
    Co. v. FERC, 
    954 F.2d 736
    , 738 (D.C. Cir. 1992).  Both of
    these criteria favor postponing review.
    Because the Commission adopted no particular method of
    setting peak/off-peak rates but "left the details of the imple-
    mentation" to be worked out in individual pipeline proceed-
    ings, Order No. 637-A at 31,574, we have no record on which
    to evaluate the nature--or indeed the existence--of Exxon's
    conceivable injury.  See Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co. v.
    FERC, 
    972 F.2d 376
    , 382 (D.C. Cir. 1992) ("Whether any ...
    pipeline serving the petitioner will actually file the tariffs
    necessary to participate in this program, or assuming one
    does, the nature of any injury that the petitioner may in fact
    suffer, remains to be seen.");  cf. American Gas Ass'n, 888
    F.2d at 152.
    Nor does Exxon even try to show how continued uncertain-
    ty over the legality of the Commission's policy would harm it
    or affect its day-to-day primary activities.  Unless and until a
    particular pipeline chooses to implement peak/off-peak rates,
    and gets Commission approval, Exxon faces no actual or
    imminent injury.  With this in mind, Exxon's reliance on
    ANR Pipeline Co. v. FERC, 
    771 F.2d 507
     (D.C. Cir. 1985),
    Exxon Repl. Br. at 4-5, is misplaced.  Quite apart from the
    fact that the court addressed only a concern about standing, it
    was certain that the carrier would file the rate increase that
    was implied by the contested order's methodological change.
    ANR, 
    771 F.2d at 516
    .  And whereas in ANR the court
    thought that the petitioner will "likely be bound by the
    Commission's order in any subsequent filing," 
    id.,
     here
    FERC's disclaimer of a "substantive rule" status of the
    challenged provisions means that neither the agency nor
    Exxon will be bound by them in any future proceedings.
    This court will remain free to re-examine FERC's policies "in
    another context if and when [Exxon's] claims become justicia-
    ble."  Shell Oil Co. v. FERC, 
    47 F.3d 1186
    , 1202 n.32 (D.C.
    Cir. 1995).
    Accordingly, Exxon's claims are unripe and its petition is
    dismissed.
    VIII.     Limitations on Pre-Arranged Releases
    Under the capacity-release regime initiated by Order No.
    636, see Section I, supra, firm customers releasing short-term
    capacity were generally required to auction it off to the
    highest bidder by posting the terms and conditions of such
    releases on pipeline electronic bulletin boards.  Order No. 636
    at 30,418-21;  see generally 18 C.F.R. s 284.8(c)-(e) (describ-
    ing posting and bidding requirements).  FERC permitted an
    exemption for so-called pre-arranged deals, however, allowing
    firm transportation customers to release capacity rights to a
    specific, pre-selected short-term shipper of their choice with-
    out prior posting and bidding, so long as the release was
    made at the maximum applicable tariff rate.  18 C.F.R.
    s 284.8(h).  Given a pre-arranged sale at the ceiling rate,
    bidding and posting would have been largely an exercise in
    futility.
    But with the elimination of the price ceiling for short-term
    capacity releases in Order No. 637, the general case for such
    an exemption was undermined.  Order No. 637-A at 31,568-
    69.  The Commission believed that once a market price was
    permissible and the ceiling rates moot, posting and bidding
    was as necessary for maximum-price releases as for any
    others:  to "protect against undue discrimination and to en-
    sure that capacity is properly allocated" to the shipper for
    which it was most valuable.  Id. at 31,569.
    Although abolishing the exemption, FERC provided a waiv-
    er procedure, primarily in the interest of a special class of
    capacity releasers.  The former exemption for releases at the
    ceiling rate had been heavily relied upon by local distribution
    companies ("LDCs") in states that sought to carry the unbun-
    dling process all the way down to the retail level.  The idea of
    such programs has been to enable residential and small
    commercial customers, who had been traditionally served by
    LDCs making gas sales bundled with transportation, instead
    to secure gas through new competitive marketers, typically
    relying on the LDCs for transportation.  Order No. 637 at
    31,250, 31,261.  To this end, these states have encouraged or
    required their LDCs to pre-arrange releases of portions of
    their firm transportation rights to the independent marketers
    at the pipeline's maximum rates.  See Request of Keyspan
    Gas East Corp. and the Brooklyn Union Gas Co. for Rehear-
    ing and/or Clarification at 25;  Order No. 637 at 31,261.
    So that such transactions might persist, the Commission
    provided that LDCs might seek Commission consent for
    making releases at the maximum rate that would have been
    applicable absent FERC's present experimental policy.  But
    to avail itself of such a waiver procedure, FERC said, the
    applicant "must be prepared to have all of its capacity release
    transactions ... limited to the applicable maximum rate."
    Id. at 31,569 (emphasis added).
    The petitioners here appear to seek a blanket exemption
    from bidding and posting for "maximum-price" releases pre-
    arranged under "state choice" plans.  Their basic argument is
    that the ultimate end-users under such transactions are the
    same core, captive users for whom the LDC originally ac-
    quired the capacity under a long-term contract.  They do not
    believe that states should be put to a choice of foregoing the
    benefits of retail unbundling, or, alternatively, of exposing
    such core end-users to the risk of having to pay a transporta-
    tion rate higher than the prior legal maximum, presumably
    the one provided under the contract originally entered into
    for their benefit.  Short of a blanket exemption, they seek a
    broadening of FERC's conditions for waiver.
    We cannot find the refusal of a blanket exemption arbitrary
    or capricious.  At most petitioners have shown that the
    absence of such an exemption may undermine some state
    regulatory efforts.  At the time Order No. 637 was adopted,
    11 states evidently had unbundling programs, with another
    nine and the District of Columbia experimenting with pilot
    programs.  Order No. 637 at 31,261.  Absent a showing that
    these programs are so structured as largely to moot FERC's
    concern with potential discrimination, or that the achieve-
    ments of these programs are enough to offset whatever such
    risk may remain, FERC's caution appears reasonable.
    But we agree with petitioners that FERC has failed to
    support its rule conditioning any waiver on the applicant's
    being "prepared to have all of its capacity release transac-
    tions ... limited to the applicable maximum rate."  Order
    No. 637-A at 31,569 (emphasis added).  FERC imposed the
    condition to be sure that an LDC exempted from the posting
    and bidding rules could not "protect[ ] other favored shippers
    from the bidding process."  Id.  But the Commission's brief
    writers recognize that the Commission failed to make a case
    for insistence that the LDC commit to making all releases at
    the maximum rate.  The Commission's requirements of state
    regulatory endorsement of the plan seems to give FERC an
    avenue by which to verify that those authorities have ad-
    dressed the discrimination risk, so much so that in its brief
    here, FERC, rather than truly defending its insistence on the
    releasing LDC's commitment to do "all" releases at the
    maximum rate, instead argues that the language " 'must be
    prepared to accept' ... differs greatly from mandatory lan-
    guage such as, 'must accept.' "  FERC Br. at 75.  According-
    ly, we reverse and remand for the Commission to review the
    matter and reframe the waiver conditions in terms that more
    aptly capture an intent apparently less Procrustean than what
    it expressed.
    * * *
    The petitions for review are denied except as noted above.
    So ordered.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 98-1333

Filed Date: 4/5/2002

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 12/21/2014

Authorities (35)

Califano v. Sanders , 97 S. Ct. 980 ( 1977 )

Virginia v. American Booksellers Assn., Inc. , 108 S. Ct. 636 ( 1988 )

Mobil Oil Exploration & Producing Southeast, Inc. v. United ... , 111 S. Ct. 615 ( 1991 )

public-service-commission-of-the-state-of-new-york-v-federal-energy , 866 F.2d 487 ( 1989 )

public-service-commission-of-the-state-of-new-york-v-federal-power , 463 F.2d 824 ( 1972 )

wisconsin-gas-company-v-federal-energy-regulatory-commission-michigan , 770 F.2d 1144 ( 1985 )

anr-pipeline-company-v-federal-energy-regulatory-commission-great-lakes , 771 F.2d 507 ( 1985 )

New York v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission , 122 S. Ct. 1012 ( 2002 )

McLouth Steel Products Corporation v. Lee M. Thomas, ... , 838 F.2d 1317 ( 1988 )

The Toilet Goods Association, Inc. v. John w.ga Rdner, ... , 87 S. Ct. 1520 ( 1967 )

Radio v. Federal Communications Commission , 278 F.3d 1314 ( 2002 )

Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife , 112 S. Ct. 2130 ( 1992 )

DEK Energy Co. v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission , 248 F.3d 1192 ( 2001 )

Northern Indiana Public Service Company v. Federal Energy ... , 954 F.2d 736 ( 1992 )

Community Nutrition Institute, Laura A. Rogers v. Frank ... , 818 F.2d 943 ( 1987 )

associated-gas-distributors-v-federal-energy-regulatory-commission-air , 824 F.2d 981 ( 1987 )

el-paso-natural-gas-company-v-federal-energy-regulatory-commission-public , 50 F.3d 23 ( 1995 )

Molycorp, Inc. v. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 197 F.3d 543 ( 1999 )

elizabethtown-gas-company-v-federal-energy-regulatory-commission-columbia , 10 F.3d 866 ( 1993 )

In Re Barr Laboratories, Inc. , 930 F.2d 72 ( 1991 )

View All Authorities »