United States Sugar Corp v. EPA , 830 F.3d 579 ( 2016 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued December 3, 2015               Decided July 29, 2016
    No. 11-1108
    UNITED STATES SUGAR CORPORATION,
    PETITIONER
    v.
    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY,
    RESPONDENT
    AMERICAN CHEMISTRY COUNCIL, ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    Consolidated with 11-1124, 11-1134, 11-1142, 11-1145,
    11-1159, 11-1165, 11-1172, 11-1174, 11-1181, 13-1086,
    13-1087, 13-1091, 13-1092, 13-1096, 13-1097, 13-1098,
    13-1099, 13-1100, 13-1103
    On Petitions for Review of Final Action of the
    United States Environmental Protection Agency
    William L. Wehrum Jr., David M. Friedland, and
    Douglas A. McWilliams argued the causes for Industry
    Petitioners. With them on the briefs were Allen A. Kacenjar,
    Katy M. Franz, Lisa Marie Jaeger, Sandra Y. Snyder, Peter
    H. Wyckoff, Claudia M. O=Brien, Stacey L. VanBelleghem, Eli
    Hopson, Jane C. Luxton, Lauren E. Freeman, Elizabeth L.
    Horner, William F. Lane, Alan H. McConnell, Timothy S.
    Bishop, Kevin G. Desharnais, Chad M. Clamage, Ronald A.
    Shipley, Quentin Riegel, Linda E. Kelly, and Jeffrey A.
    Knight. Rachel Brand, Leslie A. Hulse, Harry M. Ng, Scott J.
    Stone, John P. Wagner, and Lee B. Zeugin entered
    appearances.
    James S. Pew and Sanjay Narayan were on the briefs for
    Environmental Petitioners.   Neil Gormley entered an
    appearance.
    Perry M. Rosen and Norman L. Rave, Jr., Attorneys, U.S.
    Department of Justice, argued the causes for respondent.
    With them on the brief was John C. Cruden, Assistant
    Attorney General, and Norman L. Rave, Jr., Attorney. Sam
    Hirsch and Madeline P. Fleisher, Attorneys, entered
    appearances.
    James S. Pew and Neil Gormley argued the causes for
    Environmental Respondent-Intervenors. With them on the
    briefs was Sanjay Narayan.
    William L. Wehrum, Quentin Riegel, Linda E. Kelly,
    Patrick Forrest, Douglas A. McWilliams, Peter H. Wyckoff,
    Jeffrey A. Knight, Claudia M. O=Brien, Stacey L.
    VanBelleghem, Lisa Marie Jaeger, Sandra Y. Snyder, David
    M. Friedland, William F. Lane, Alan H. McConnell, Ronald
    A. Shipley, Carol F. McCabe, Suzanne Ilene Schiller, Michael
    Dillon, Charles Howland Knauss, Shannon S. Broome,
    Timothy S. Bishop, Kevin G. Desharnais, Chad M. Clamage,
    Lauren E. Freeman, Elizabeth L. Horner, Larry B. Alexander,
    and Leslie A. Hulse were on the brief for Industry Intervenor-
    Respondents. Allen A. Kacenjar Jr., Rachel L. Brand, Harry
    M. Ng, Scott J. Stone, John P. Wagner, and Lee B. Zeugin
    entered appearances.
    No. 11-1125
    AMERICAN FOREST & PAPER ASSOCIATION, ET AL.,
    PETITIONERS
    v.
    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY,
    RESPONDENT
    AMERICAN CHEMISTRY COUNCIL, ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    Consolidated with 11-1140, 11-1144, 11-1154, 11-1155,
    11-1161, 11-1171, 11-1173, 11-1180, 11-1183, 11-1188,
    13-1111, 13-1113, 13-1114, 13-1116, 13-1118, 13-1119,
    13-1120, 13-1121, 13-1123, 13-1124, 13-1127
    On Petitions for Review of a Final Action of the
    United States Environmental Protection Agency
    William L. Wehrum, Douglas A. McWilliams, and Jason
    T. Morgan argued the causes for Industry Petitioners. On the
    briefs were Richard G. Stoll, Leslie A. Hulse, Lisa Marie
    Jaeger, Sandra Y. Snyder, Peter H. Wyckoff, Jeffrey A.
    Knight, David M. Friedland, Jessalee Landfried, Michael B.
    Wigmore, Ronald A. Shipley, Chet M. Thompson, Linda E.
    Kelly, Quentin Riegel, William F. Lane, Alan H. McConnell,
    Carol F. McCabe, Suzanne Ilene Schiller, and Michael
    Dillon. David Y. Chung, Rachel L. Brand, Julia L. German,
    Jeffrey W. Leppo, and Jane C. Luxton entered appearances.
    Neil Gormley and James S. Pew argued the causes and
    filed the briefs for Environmental Petitioners.
    Perry M. Rosen and Norman L. Rave, Jr., Attorneys, U.S.
    Department of Justice, argued the causes for respondent.
    With them on the brief was John C. Cruden, Assistant
    Attorney General. Madeline P. Fleisher, Attorney, entered an
    appearance.
    James S. Pew and Neil Gormley argued the causes and
    filed the briefs for Environmental Respondent-Intervenors.
    David M. Friedland and William L. Wehrum argued the
    causes for Industry Intervenor-Respondents. With them on
    the briefs were Jessalee Landfried, Leslie A. Hulse, Richard
    G. Stoll, Ronald A. Shipley, William F. Lane, Alan H.
    McConnell, James T. Morgan, Lisa Marie Jaeger, Sandra Y.
    Snyder, Jeffrey A. Knight, Shannon S. Broome, Carol
    McCabe, Suzanne Ilene Schiller, Michael Dillon, Linda E.
    Kelly, Quentin Riegel, and Charles H. Knauss. Scott J. Stone,
    Lori A. Rubin, and Jeffrey W. Leppo entered appearances.
    No. 11-1141
    AMERICAN CHEMISTRY COUNCIL,
    PETITIONER
    v.
    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY,
    RESPONDENT
    AMERICAN FOREST & PAPER ASSOCIATION, ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    Consolidated with 11-1182, 11-1207, 11-1208, 13-1105,
    13-1107
    On Petitions for Review of a Final Action of the
    United States Environmental Protection Agency
    William L. Wehrum and David M. Friedland argued the
    causes for Industry Petitioners. On the briefs were Lisa Marie
    Jaeger, Sandra Y. Snyder, Jeffrey A. Knight, Quentin Riegel,
    and Leslie A. Hulse. Harry M. Ng, Scott J. Stone, and John P.
    Wagner entered appearances.
    Neil Gormley argued the cause for Environmental
    Petitioners. With him on the briefs was James S. Pew.
    Perry M. Rosen and Norman L. Rave, Jr., Attorneys, U.S.
    Department of Justice, argued the causes for respondent.
    With them on the brief was John C. Cruden, Assistant
    Attorney General. Madeline P. Fleisher, Attorney, entered an
    appearance.
    David M. Friedland and William L. Wehrum argued the
    causes for Industry Intervenor-Respondents. With them on
    the briefs were Lisa Marie Jaeger, Sandra Y. Snyder, Jeffrey
    A. Knight, William F. Pedersen, Pamela A. Lacey, William F.
    Lane, Linda E. Kelly, Quentin Riegel, James W. Conrad, Jr.,
    and Leslie A. Hulse. Harry M. Ng, Scott J. Stone, John P.
    Wagner, and Nidhi J. Thakar entered appearances.
    James S. Pew and Neil Gormley were on the brief for
    Environmental Respondent-Intervenors.
    Before: HENDERSON, BROWN, and GRIFFITH, Circuit
    Judges.
    PER CURIAM: In these consolidated petitions for review,
    we address approximately thirty challenges to three
    regulations promulgated by the United States Environmental
    Protection Agency (EPA or Agency): (1) the “Major Boilers
    Rule,”1 (2) the “Area Boilers Rule,”2 and (3) the
    “Commercial/Industrial Solid Waste Incinerators (CISWI)
    Rule.”3 Collectively, these rules—all promulgated under the
    Clean Air Act (CAA or Act), 
    42 U.S.C. §§ 7401
     et seq.—set
    emissions limits on certain combustion machinery known to
    release hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). Roughly one-half of
    1
    National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants
    for Major Sources: Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers
    and Process Heaters (2011 Major Boilers Rule), 
    76 Fed. Reg. 15,608
     (Mar. 21, 2011), as amended, National Emission Standards
    for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources: Industrial,
    Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and Process Heaters (2013
    Major Boilers Rule), 
    78 Fed. Reg. 7,138
     (Jan. 31, 2013).
    2
    National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants
    for Area Sources: Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers
    (2011 Area Boilers Rule), 
    76 Fed. Reg. 15,554
     (Mar. 21, 2011), as
    amended, National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air
    Pollutants for Area Sources: Industrial, Commercial, and
    Institutional Boilers (2013 Area Boilers Rule), 
    78 Fed. Reg. 7,488
    (Feb. 1, 2013).
    3
    Standards of Performance for New Stationary Sources and
    Emission Guidelines for Existing Sources: Commercial and
    Industrial Solid Waste Incinerator Units (2011 CISWI Rule), 
    76 Fed. Reg. 15,704
     (Mar. 21, 2011), as amended, Commercial and
    Industrial Solid Waste Incineration Units: Reconsideration and
    Final Amendments; Non-Hazardous Secondary Materials that Are
    Solid Waste (2013 CISWI Rule), 
    78 Fed. Reg. 9,112
     (Feb. 7,
    2013).
    2
    the challenges are advanced by a group of municipal-electric
    organizations, industrial-trade associations, oil-and-gas
    industry representatives, and other entities that own and
    operate boilers, process heaters, and incinerators (Industry
    Petitioners). The other one-half are pressed by organizations
    interested in safeguarding the environment (Environmental
    Petitioners).
    I. BACKGROUND
    The three rules at issue address a common phenomenon:
    when combustion occurs, emissions result. The emissions
    include numerous materials, some of which pose risks to the
    environment in general and to human health in particular.
    Because combustion is an inevitable occurrence in the
    machinery that helps to power modern society, the Congress
    has authorized the EPA to provide for a regulatory framework
    that minimizes the deleterious effects of the incineration
    industry while simultaneously allowing it to operate.
    In 2013, the EPA finalized its efforts to do so for discrete
    types of combustion machinery: boilers, process heaters, and
    incinerators. Two of the three rules at issue—the Major
    Boilers Rule and the Area Boilers Rule—govern boilers and
    process heaters. The former are enclosed devices that use a
    controlled flame to heat water and convert it into steam or hot
    water. 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.11237
    . The latter are also enclosed
    devices that use a controlled flame but, instead of generating
    steam, they indirectly heat a “process material,” whether
    liquid, gas, or solid, or a “heat transfer material” like glycol or
    a mixture of glycol and water. 
    Id.
     For simplicity, our use of
    “boilers” covers both machinery types.
    The two boiler-specific rules further divide the machinery
    into three categories:        industrial, commercial, and
    3
    institutional. See 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    15,557. Industrial boilers are used for manufacturing,
    processing, mining, refining, and other similar operations.
    See id. Commercial boilers are used by shopping malls,
    laundromats, apartment complexes, restaurants, and hotels.
    See id. And institutional boilers include those used by, e.g.,
    medical centers, schools, churches, prisons, and courthouses.
    See id. Collectively, over 200,000 boilers at over 100,000
    separate facilities must comply with the standards set out in
    the Major Boilers Rule or the Area Boilers Rule.
    The third rule that we address—the CISWI Rule—
    governs combustion machinery known as “solid waste
    incineration unit[s].” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    . The Act defines an
    incinerator as a “distinct operating unit of any facility” that
    burns solid waste from either commercial establishments,
    industrial establishments, or the general public.            
    Id.
    § 7429(g)(1). An incinerator subjects “waste material” to
    “high temperatures until it is reduced to ash.” Incinerator,
    NEW OXFORD AMERICAN DICTIONARY 853 (2d ed. 2005).
    Incinerators fall into different subcategories and, in the past,
    the EPA has issued rules governing many of them, including,
    e.g., municipal solid-waste incinerators, medical-waste
    incinerators, and sewage-sludge incinerators.4 At issue in the
    CISWI Rule are incinerators located in commercial or
    industrial facilities that combust solid waste as defined in the
    Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA), 
    42 U.S.C. §§ 6901
     et seq. See 2011 CISWI Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    15,706.
    4
    See, e.g., 40 C.F.R. pt. 60, subpts. Cd, Ce, Eb, AAAA,
    BBBB, EEEE, FFFF, LLLL, MMMM.
    4
    A. THE CLEAN AIR ACT, 
    42 U.S.C. §§ 7401
     ET SEQ.
    Enacted “to protect and enhance the quality of the
    Nation’s air resources so as to promote the public health and
    welfare and the productive capacity of its population,” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7401
    (b)(1), the Act has been amended several times
    since the Congress first attempted to control air pollution via
    legislation in 1963. In 1970, the Congress required the EPA
    to identify and publish a list of HAPs, which the CAA defined
    as substances that increase “mortality,” “serious irreversible”
    illness, or “incapacitating reversible” illness. Clean Air
    Amendments of 1970, Pub. L. No. 91-604, § 4(a), 
    84 Stat. 1676
    , 1685 (1970). The EPA had to set emission limits for
    every HAP based on the risk it posed to human health. See
    Sierra Club v. EPA (Sierra Club I), 
    353 F.3d 976
    , 979 (D.C.
    Cir. 2004). In other words, the EPA was to “consider[] levels
    of HAPs at which health effects are observed, factor[] in an
    ample margin of safety to protect the public health, and set
    emission restrictions accordingly.” 
    Id.
     (quotation marks
    omitted).
    The risk-focused approach to capping HAP emissions left
    something to be desired. “In light of unrealistic time frames
    and scientific uncertain[t]y over which substances posed a
    threat to public health,” the EPA “only listed eight pollutants
    as hazardous between 1970 and 1990,” Nat. Res. Def. Council
    v. EPA (NRDC II), 
    529 F.3d 1077
    , 1079 (D.C. Cir. 2008), and
    set “emission standards for [only] seven of them,” Sierra Club
    I, 
    353 F.3d at 979
    ; see also S. REP. NO. 101-228, at 3 (1989)
    (“Very little has been done since the passage of the 1970 Act
    to identify and control hazardous air pollutants.”). After
    twenty years of the risk-based approach, the Congress went
    back to the drawing board and, via the 1990 CAA
    Amendments, Pub. L. No. 101-549, 
    104 Stat. 2399
     (1990),
    5
    established the technology-based approach that governs
    today. See Sierra Club I, 
    353 F.3d at 979
    .
    1. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    —“Hazardous Air Pollutants”
    The 1990 CAA Amendments overhauled the Act’s
    “Hazardous Air Pollutants” provision, codified at 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    . Although earlier iterations of the Act had assigned
    HAPs-identification responsibility to the EPA, the slow pace
    at which the EPA discharged its duty prompted the Congress
    to create a list of pollutants itself.5 See Sierra Club I, 
    353 F.3d at
    979-80 (citing 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (b)). After identifying
    nearly two hundred HAPs that warranted emissions
    restrictions, see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (b)(1), the Congress directed
    the EPA, first, to identify the sources of each HAP, see 
    id.
    § 7412(c). The Agency then was to set emissions limits for
    each source that result in HAPs reduction to the greatest
    extent achievable by current technology. See generally Nat’l
    Ass’n for Surface Finishing v. EPA, 
    795 F.3d 1
    , 4 (D.C. Cir.
    2015) (citing 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (b)(1), (c), (d)).
    a. Identifying and Categorizing HAP Sources
    The EPA’s first task is to create HAP-source categories
    and subcategories. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c). The Act
    distinguishes “major” from “area” sources, defining the
    former as “any stationary source or group of stationary
    sources” that neighbor each other, share common control, and
    emit (or have the potential to emit) either ten tons per year or
    more of any single HAP or twenty-five tons per year or more
    5
    The EPA must keep the HAPs list current. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (b)(2), (3).
    6
    of any HAP combination.6 
    Id.
     § 7412(a)(1). The latter are
    sources that do not emit enough HAPs to qualify as “major.”
    Id. § 7412(a)(2). Although the EPA must set stringent
    restrictions on major sources, it has discretion to set more
    lenient emissions caps on area sources. See id. § 7412(d)(5).
    Apart from the statutory distinction between major and
    area sources, the EPA has discretion to differentiate “among
    classes, types, and sizes of sources within a category or
    subcategory.” Id. § 7412(d)(1). Once the EPA finalizes
    HAPs-source categories and subcategories, the CAA
    mandates that it draw one final dividing line—between “new”
    sources and “existing” sources. See id. § 7412(d)(3). “New”
    sources are those “on which construction begins after EPA
    publishes emission standards,” Cement Kiln Recycling Coal.
    v. EPA, 
    255 F.3d 855
    , 858 (D.C. Cir. 2001); most of the
    others are “existing” sources, see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (a)(10).
    But if an existing source experiences either a physical change
    or a change in operation method and the change increases
    HAP emissions by more than a de minimis amount, the Act
    mandates that the source meet the standards set for new
    sources. See 
    id.
     § 7412(a)(5), (g).
    b. Setting Emission Standards for Major Sources—the
    “MACT” Standard
    After the EPA identifies HAP-source categories and
    subcategories, it then sets emissions limits for each. See id.
    § 7412(d)(2). “[W]henever . . . feasible,” the caps must use
    numeric HAPs limits. Id. § 7412(h)(4). The size of the
    6
    The CAA defines “stationary source” as “any building,
    structure, facility, or installation which emits or may emit any air
    pollutant.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7411
    (a)(3).
    7
    source—either “major” or “area”—dictates whether the EPA
    must set the numeric limit at the most stringent level that
    current technology allows or at the level set by “generally
    available control technologies.” 
    Id.
     § 7412(d)(5). For major
    sources, the CAA directs the EPA to establish emissions caps
    that result in the “the maximum degree of reduction in
    emissions” that the EPA determines is “achievable.” Id.
    § 7412(d)(2). We refer to an emissions cap that reflects the
    current “maximum achievable control technology” as a
    “MACT” standard. See NRDC II, 
    529 F.3d at 1079
    . Setting a
    MACT standard is a two-step process.
    First, the EPA establishes a “MACT floor” for each
    category or subcategory. Sierra Club I, 
    353 F.3d at 980
    . The
    MACT floor ensures that all HAPs sources “at least clean up
    their emissions to the level that their best performing peers
    have shown can be achieved.” 
    Id.
     For new sources—those
    built after promulgation of a HAPs limit, see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (a)(4)—the MACT floor cannot be less stringent than
    the emissions levels achieved by the best performing similar
    source. 
    Id.
     § 7412(d)(3). For existing sources in categories or
    subcategories that have thirty or more sources, the MACT
    floor cannot be less stringent than the average emissions
    limits achieved by the best performing 12 per cent of existing
    sources in that category or subcategory. Id. § 7412(d)(3)(A).
    And for existing sources in categories or subcategories with
    fewer than thirty sources, the MACT floor cannot be less
    stringent than the average emissions achieved by the best
    performing five sources. Id. § 7412(d)(3)(B). When setting
    the MACT floor, the EPA considers only the performance of
    the cleanest sources in a category or subcategory; it does not
    take into account other factors, including the cost of putting a
    source in line with its better-performing counterparts. See
    Cement Kiln, 
    255 F.3d at
    857-58 (citing Nat’l Lime Ass’n v.
    8
    EPA, 
    233 F.3d 625
    , 629 (D.C. Cir. 2000), as amended on
    denial of reh’g, No. 99-1325 (D.C. Cir. Feb. 14, 2001)).
    Second, the EPA must determine whether current
    technology makes it possible for a source to perform even
    better than the best performing similar source or sources. In
    other words, the CAA directs the EPA to consider whether it
    should set a “beyond-the-floor” MACT standard. Nat’l Lime
    Ass’n, 
    233 F.3d at 629
    . In determining whether a beyond-the-
    floor standard is “achievable,” the Agency must consider
    additional factors like “the cost of achieving such emission
    reduction,” “any non-air quality health and environmental
    impacts” and “energy requirements.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2).
    It has broad discretion in its determination. See id.; cf. Nat’l
    Ass’n of Clean Water Agencies v. EPA (NACWA), 
    734 F.3d 1115
    , 1157 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (noting, in section 7429 case,
    that “Congress gave EPA broad discretion in considering
    whether to go beyond-the-floor”).
    c. Setting Emission Standards for Area Sources—the
    “GACT” Standard
    Although the EPA must cap HAP emissions from major
    sources at the “maximum degree of reduction,” see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2), it has discretion to set less stringent caps on
    emissions from area sources. Indeed, the EPA need not list
    categories of area sources at all unless: (A) it finds that the
    sources in that category or subcategory “present[] a threat of
    adverse effects” to the environment or human health, see 
    id.
    § 7412(c)(1), (3); or (B) control of a particular area source
    category or subcategory is necessary to ensure that sources
    accounting for at least 90 per cent of the aggregate emissions
    of the thirty HAPs the EPA believes “present the greatest
    threat to public health in the largest number of urban areas”
    9
    are subject to CAA control, id. § 7412(c)(3), (k)(3)(B). If it
    finds that controlling emissions from a particular area source
    subcategory is necessary to achieve a 90 per cent reduction in
    the aggregate emissions of any of seven CAA-enumerated
    HAPs, section 7412(c)(6) requires the Agency to impose
    MACT caps on that subcategory. See id. § 7412(c)(6).
    With the exception of section 7412(c)(6)’s MACT-
    standard requirement, the EPA need not cap emissions from
    area sources at the MACT level. Instead, it may set more
    lenient emissions limits based on “generally available control
    technologies.” Id. § 7412(d)(5). We refer to these caps as
    GACT standards. The Act provides no guidance for setting
    GACT standards but the legislative history of the 1990 CAA
    Amendments describes GACT “as methods, practices and
    techniques [that] are commercially available and appropriate
    for application by the sources in the category considering
    economic impacts and the technical capabilities of the firms
    to operate and maintain the emissions control systems.” S.
    REP. NO. 101-228, at 171 (1989). According to the EPA, it
    can and will consider the following in setting a GACT
    standard:
         “costs and economic impacts . . . , which
    [are] particularly important when developing
    regulations for source categories that may
    have many small businesses . . . ”;
          “the control technologies and management
    practices that are generally available to the
    area sources in the source category”;
         “the standards applicable to major sources in
    the analogous source category to determine if
    10
    the control technologies and management
    practices are transferable and generally
    available to area sources”; and
         “technologies and practices at area and major
    sources in similar categories to determine
    whether such technologies and practices
    could be considered generally available for
    the area source categories at issue.”
    2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,556. And, unlike
    the EPA’s duty to consider a beyond-the-floor MACT
    standard, it need not consider a more stringent GACT
    standard.
    d. Work-Practice and Management-Practice Standards
    Although the CAA requires numeric emission standards
    where possible, the EPA can “promulgate a design,
    equipment, work practice, or operational standard, or
    combination thereof” if it determines that a numeric limit is
    “not feasible.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (h)(1). In other words, the
    EPA can require that all sources in a given category or
    subcategory take a certain action (e.g., conduct a periodic
    tune-up) or install certain emissions-control technology (e.g.,
    install a fabric filter). Although the EPA has discretion to
    impose a work-practice standard, the Act limits it by defining
    the operative phrase “not feasible” narrowly to mean:
    (A) a hazardous air pollutant or pollutants cannot
    be emitted through a conveyance designed
    and constructed to emit or capture such
    pollutant, or that any requirement for, or use
    of, such a conveyance would be inconsistent
    with any Federal, State or local law, or
    11
    (B) the application of measurement methodology
    to a particular class of sources is not
    practicable due to technological and
    economic limitations.
    
    Id.
     § 7412(h)(2).
    Similarly, for area sources, the EPA can impose a
    “management-practice standard” in lieu of a numeric GACT
    standard. See id. § 7412(d)(5). A management-practice
    GACT standard is like a work-practice MACT standard in all
    ways but one—the EPA need not consider feasibility when
    setting management-practice standards.       Compare id.
    § 7412(d)(2), with id. § 7412(d)(5).
    2. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    —“Solid Waste Combustion”
    In addition to amending the Act’s “Hazardous Air
    Pollutants” provision, see 
    id.
     § 7412, the 1990 CAA
    Amendments added to the U.S. Code section 7429, titled
    “Solid Waste Combustion.” Section 7429 regulates “solid
    waste incineration units” generally, see id. § 7429(a)(1)(A),
    and CISWI specifically, see id. § 7429(a)(1)(D). Although
    section 7412 requires the EPA to control emissions of nearly
    two hundred HAPs, see id. § 7412(d)(1), section 7429
    mandates that the EPA control emissions from only nine
    specific pollutants (as well as opacity, where appropriate),
    none of which the Congress included on its initial section
    7412 list, see id. § 7429(a)(4); see also Nat. Res. Def. Council
    v. EPA (NRDC I), 
    489 F.3d 1250
    , 1256 (D.C. Cir. 2007). We
    have       held       that     this      difference      “makes
    promulgating . . . standards under [section 7412] and [section
    7429] mutually exclusive.” NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1119. In
    other words, if a source (or facility) is considered a CISWI
    12
    and, therefore, regulated under section 7429, it cannot be
    regulated under section 7412. See id.
    Whether a source falls under section 7412 or section
    7429, “the statutory directive on setting MACT standards is
    virtually identical.” Id.; see also Nat’l Lime Ass’n, 
    233 F.3d at 631
    . That said, regulation under one section instead of the
    other “has practical consequences.” NACWA, 734 F.3d at
    1120. For example, section 7412 allows the EPA to impose a
    GACT standard for area sources only but section 7429
    requires the EPA to impose MACT standards for all covered
    units, regardless of their size.         Compare 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(1), (5), with 
    id.
     § 7429(a)(1)(A); see also NRDC I,
    
    489 F.3d at 1256
    . Moreover, section 7412 mandates that the
    EPA control HAP emissions from “major source[s],” which
    the Act defines broadly to include “group[s] of stationary
    sources located within a contiguous area and under common
    control.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (a)(1) (emphasis added). Section
    7429, in contrast, mandates that the EPA control emissions
    from “solid waste incineration unit[s],” which the Act defines
    more narrowly as “a distinct operating unit of any facility
    which combusts any solid waste material,” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (g)(1) (emphases added). And finally, section 7429
    does not provide for work-practice standards.
    3. 
    42 U.S.C. §§ 7661
     et seq.—“Title V Permits”
    Finally, the 1990 CAA Amendments added a provision to
    Title V of the Act that requires all owners and operators of
    HAP sources to obtain operating permits. See 
    id.
     § 7661a.
    Title V does no more than consolidate “existing air pollution
    requirements into a single document, the Title V permit, to
    facilitate compliance monitoring” without imposing any new
    substantive requirements. Sierra Club v. Leavitt, 
    368 F.3d 13
    1300, 1302 (11th Cir. 2004). The legislative history of the
    1990 CAA Amendments indicates that the Congress required
    the “Title V permits” so that the public might “better
    determine the requirements to which the source is subject, and
    whether the source is meeting those requirements.” S. REP.
    NO. 101-228, at 347. Although owners and operators of all
    major HAP sources must obtain Title V permits, see generally
    42 U.S.C. § 7661a(a), the EPA has discretion to exempt
    certain area source categories if it “finds that compliance with
    such requirements is impracticable, infeasible, or
    unnecessarily burdensome,” id.
    B. THE MAJOR BOILERS, AREA BOILERS,
    AND CISWI RULES
    On March 21, 2011, the EPA issued the first iteration of
    all three rules under review. That same day, however, the
    EPA announced that it intended to reconsider certain aspects
    of each rule. Not long after, multiple parties filed the
    petitions for review that we now address. Earlier, the EPA
    had concluded its reconsideration and issued the most recent
    iteration of the three rules. Because of this procedural quirk,
    each “rule” we address is in fact two separate rules—the
    EPA’s “final” 2011 version and its “final” 2013 version. The
    EPA’s analyses remained mostly consistent from 2011 to
    2013 and we indicate, where necessary, the instances in which
    the EPA changed course in a significant way.
    1. The Major Boilers Rule
    The Major Boilers Rule sets HAPs emission caps for all
    industrial, commercial, and institutional boilers that emit a
    large volume of HAPs. See 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,611. The EPA further divided the major boiler
    categories into subcategories based on the primary fuel
    14
    combusted by the boilers in the subcategory (e.g., coal,
    biomass, gas, etc.) and, for some subcategories, based on the
    method used to “feed” the fuel into the boiler. See 2013
    Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,144. For most of the
    subcategories, the EPA set a numeric MACT standard for four
    different HAPs: particulate matter (PM); hydrogen chloride
    (HCl); mercury (Hg); and carbon monoxide (CO). See id. at
    7,142 tbl.3; No. 11-1108 EPA Br. 9. The EPA used some of
    these HAPs—particularly CO—as a surrogate (or proxy) to
    set emissions limits for others on the section 7412(b) HAPs
    list. See 2013 Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,144-45.
    For the other major boiler subcategories, the EPA set a work-
    practice standard (specifically, a tune-up requirement) in lieu
    of numeric MACT standards. See 2011 Major Boilers Rule,
    76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613.7 The EPA also established a tune-up
    work-practice standard to control for dioxin/furan emissions
    across all major boiler subcategories. 2013 Major Boilers
    Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,138.
    In addition to these emission standards, the Major Boilers
    Rule includes several other provisions relevant to the current
    petitions for review.
    a. The “Upper Prediction Limit”
    Several factors complicate the process of setting MACT
    floors. The first is the CAA itself, which mandates that all
    MACT floors (1) must be achievable, see 42 U.S.C.
    7
    The four major boiler subcategories for which the EPA
    established work-practice standards include “[n]ew and existing
    units that have a designed heat input capacity of less than 10
    MMBtu/hr, and new and existing units in the Gas 1 (natural
    gas/refinery gas) subcategory and in the metal process furnaces
    subcategory.” 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613.
    15
    § 7412(d)(2); (2) must ensure continuous regulation of the
    covered sources, see id. § 7602(k); and (3) must be no less
    stringent than the emissions levels being achieved by the best-
    controlled sources, see id. § 7412(d)(3). The second is that no
    source emits any HAP at a constant level; rather, HAP
    emissions fluctuate over time and for many reasons,
    including, e.g., “operation of control technologies, variation in
    combustion materials and combustion conditions, variation in
    operation of the unit itself, and variation associated with the
    emission measurement techniques.” Memorandum from
    Stephen D. Page, EPA Director of Air Quality Planning and
    Standards, EPA’s Response to Remand of the Record for
    Commercial and Industrial Solid Waste Incineration Units
    (Page Mem.) (July 14, 2014), at 3 (No. 11-1125 J.A. 1316).
    Finally, most sources do not measure their HAP emissions at
    all times and under all conditions.8 Id. at 6. Instead, data are
    usually gathered when a source conducts a “three-run stack
    test.” Id. This test provides three “snapshots” of a source’s
    emissions in a limited set of conditions and, accordingly, it
    fails to demonstrate accurately a source’s emissions during all
    times and under all conditions. Id.
    To compensate for the lack of adequate emissions data,
    the EPA uses a statistical tool known as the “upper prediction
    limit” (UPL) to account for the expected variability in
    emissions levels. See 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 15,630. The UPL, in turn, allows the Agency to set a
    MACT floor that is continuously achievable. Id. We discuss
    the UPL mechanics at greater length below, see infra § IV.C,
    but, in short, the EPA: (1) ranks all sources in a given
    8
    As discussed below, however, the EPA does allow sources
    to demonstrate MACT compliance by use of “continuous
    monitors.” See infra § IV.I.
    16
    category based on their three-run stack-test data;
    (2) determines the HAP emissions level of the “best
    controlled similar source” to establish standards for new
    sources, 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(3), and determines the average
    HAP emissions levels of the best performing 12 per cent of
    sources to establish standards for existing sources, 
    id.
    § 7412(d)(3)(A); and then (3) applies the UPL methodology
    to provide the cushion necessary to account for the expected
    peaks and valleys in HAP emissions not reflected in the three-
    run stack-test “snapshots.” See Page Mem. 4, 6.
    b. The “Pollutant-By-Pollutant” Approach
    In identifying the best performing sources in a given
    category, often the EPA could not identify a single source that
    controlled all HAPs better than all other sources. Instead, the
    EPA found that one source effectively controlled emissions
    from one HAP but was nonetheless one of the worst-
    performing sources at controlling emissions from a different
    HAP. For this reason, the EPA adopted a “pollutant-by-
    pollutant” approach in setting MACT floors for major boiler
    subcategories. See 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    15,622-23. That is, instead of identifying the one source that,
    on balance, best controlled all HAPs in the aggregate, the
    EPA used one source to set the MACT floor for, e.g., PM, and
    used a different source to set the MACT floor for, e.g., HCl.
    For at least two subcategories of major boilers—new heavy
    oil-fired units and existing stoker coal-fired units—the EPA’s
    pollutant-by-pollutant approach resulted in MACT floors that
    no source had achieved in toto.
    c. Startups, Shutdowns, and Malfunctions
    The EPA found it difficult to account for HAP emissions
    when sources start up, shut down, and malfunction. All three
    17
    occurrences alter HAP emissions and, historically, the EPA
    exempted sources from normal numeric MACT-standard
    compliance when these events occurred. See, e.g., Standards
    of Performance for New Stationary Sources, 
    42 Fed. Reg. 57,125
     (Nov. 1, 1977). Nevertheless, concluding that the Act
    “require[s] that there must be continuous section [7412]-
    compliant standards” and observing that the exemption meant
    that “no section [7412] standard governs these events,” in
    2008 we vacated the exemption for startups, shutdowns, and
    malfunctions when the issue arose in a case challenging a
    different rule. Sierra Club v. EPA (Sierra Club III), 
    551 F.3d 1019
    , 1027-28 (D.C. Cir. 2008) (emphasis added).
    In response to the Sierra Club III vacatur, the EPA
    established a work-practice standard in lieu of a numeric
    MACT standard during startup and shutdown periods (but not
    during malfunctions) when it promulgated the Major Boilers
    Rule. See 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613.9
    It did so after determining that the “physical limitations and
    the short duration of startup and shutdown periods” made it
    technologically infeasible to conduct the requisite testing for
    numeric emissions limits. Id. A work-practice standard
    sufficed, in the EPA’s view, because “[p]eriods of startup,
    normal operations, and shutdown are all predictable and
    routine aspects of a source’s operations.” Id.
    9
    Specifically, the startup and shutdown work-practice
    standard requires a source to follow “the manufacturer’s
    recommended procedures for minimizing periods of startup and
    shutdown.” 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613. “If
    manufacturer’s recommended procedures are not available,” the
    Major Boilers Rule provided that “sources must follow
    recommended procedures for a unit of similar design for which
    manufacturer’s recommended procedures are available.” Id. at
    15,642.
    18
    But because a malfunction is “sudden, infrequent, and not
    reasonably preventable,” id. (quoting 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.2
    ), the
    EPA declined to treat a malfunction as a “distinct operating
    mode,” 
    id.
     As a result, the EPA did not account for
    malfunctions when it set the MACT floors and it required
    sources to comply with all MACT floors even during periods
    of malfunction. 
    Id.
     At the same time and recognizing that
    even the best equipment can fail and that such failure can
    spike emissions, the EPA added to the Major Boilers Rule “an
    affirmative defense to civil penalties for exceedances of
    numerical emission limits that are caused by malfunctions.”
    
    Id.
     In reviewing a challenge to a different EPA rule, however,
    we vacated a materially identical affirmative-defense
    provision and held that the EPA has no power under the CAA
    to create a defense to civil liability. See Natural Res. Def.
    Council v. EPA (NRDC III), 
    749 F.3d 1055
    , 1062-64 (D.C.
    Cir. 2014). Here, the EPA defends its decision not to address
    malfunctions by asserting that it will use its enforcement
    discretion regarding malfunctions on a case-by-case basis.
    d. The One-Time Energy Assessment
    The EPA also promulgated a “beyond-the-floor”
    requirement for all facilities with existing major boilers. See
    2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613.
    Specifically, the Major Boilers Rule mandates a “a one-time
    energy assessment . . . on the affected boilers and facility to
    identify any cost-effective energy conservation measures,”
    id., which assessment includes, inter alia, a review of fuel
    usage, energy management practices, and conservation
    measures, see 2013 Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at
    7,198-99. In some respects, the energy assessment is limited:
    it (1) need occur only one time, see 40 C.F.R pt. 63, subpt.
    DDDDD tbl.3; (2) is “based on energy use by discrete
    19
    segments of a facility and not by a total aggregation of all
    individual energy using elements of a facility,” 2013 Major
    Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,146; and (3) does not require
    an owner or operator to implement any of the energy-saving
    findings the assessment makes. In one respect, however, it is
    expansive—it requires owners and operators to assess not
    only the boilers themselves but also other components
    “located on the site of the affected boiler that use energy
    provided by the boiler,” including “compressed air systems”
    as well as “facility heating, ventilation, and air conditioning
    systems.” 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.11237
    .
    e. The Health-Based Emissions Limits for HCl
    Although the EPA set numeric MACT standards to
    control HCl emissions, see 2013 Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed.
    Reg. at 7,193-98 tbls.1 & 2, in an earlier iteration of the Major
    Boilers Rule, the EPA did not set MACT standards for HCl.
    See National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air
    Pollutants for Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional
    Boilers and Process Heaters (2004 Boilers Rule), 
    69 Fed. Reg. 55,218
    , 55,227 (Sept. 13, 2004). Instead, the Agency opted
    for a less stringent health-based emissions limit under section
    7412(d)(4).      See 
    id.
        The EPA changed course after
    concluding that HCl emissions posed health concerns the
    Agency had not previously considered—in particular, the
    EPA feared the “potential cumulative public health and
    environmental effects” of HCl emissions, 2011 Major Boilers
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,643-44 (emphasis added)—and after
    recognizing that it did not have the requisite data to weigh
    adequately the newly identified health risks.
    20
    2. The Area Boilers Rule
    In the Area Boilers Rule, the EPA set emissions limits for
    the same three boiler categories it controlled in the Major
    Boilers Rule, see supra § I.B.1: industrial, commercial, and
    institutional boilers. See 2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg.
    at 7,488.      It further split the categories into seven
    subcategories, see id., and set emissions limits for three of
    them, see id. at 7,517-18 tbls.1 & 2.10 These include:
    (1) coal-fired boilers (i.e., “any boiler that burns any solid
    fossil fuel and no more than 15 percent biomass,” 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.11237
    ); (2) oil-fired boilers (i.e., “any boiler that burns
    any liquid fuel and is not in either the biomass or coal
    subcategories,” id.); and (3) biomass-fired boilers (i.e., “any
    boiler that burns any” “biomass-based solid fuel that is not a
    solid waste” and “is not in the coal subcategory,” id.). See
    2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,517-18 tbls.1 & 2.
    For these subcategories, the EPA set emissions limits for
    three HAPs: Hg, PM, and CO, with PM functioning as a
    surrogate for non-Hg urban metals and CO functioning as a
    surrogate for polycyclic organic matter (POM). See 2011
    Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,586. Because Hg and
    POM are both listed in section 7412(c)(6), the EPA had to set
    MACT standards for Hg and for CO (as surrogate for POM)
    for any area source category that, in the EPA’s view, required
    10
    As noted above, see supra § I.A.1.a, the EPA has some
    discretion in promulgating emissions limits for area HAP sources.
    Exercising its discretion, the EPA had previously determined that
    natural gas-fired area boilers did not emit HAPs at a level
    necessitating regulation. See National Emission Standards for
    Hazardous Air Pollutants for Area Sources: Industrial, Commercial,
    and Institutional Boilers (2010 Proposed Area Boilers Rule), 
    75 Fed. Reg. 31,896
    , 31,900 (June 4, 2010).
    21
    MACT control to assure a 90 per cent reduction in the
    aggregate emissions of these two HAPs. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c)(6). The Agency complied, setting numeric MACT
    standards for Hg and CO emissions from large coal-fired
    boilers and a MACT work-practice standard (specifically, a
    tune-up requirement) for emissions from small coal-fired
    boilers. See 2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,488,
    7,517-18.11 It did not, however, set MACT standards for Hg
    and POM emissions from biomass or oil-fired boilers, finding
    it unnecessary to assure a 90 per cent reduction in aggregate
    emissions of those two HAPs. See 2011 Area Boilers Rule,
    76 Fed. Reg. at 15,566.
    Thus, with the exception of Hg and CO emissions from
    coal-fired boilers, the EPA had discretion to promulgate
    GACT standards for all other HAPs in all other source
    subcategories. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(5). Exercising this
    discretion resulted in the following standards:
    11
    As used in the Area Boilers Rule, the difference between
    “large” and “small” units depends on the heat-input capacity of the
    unit. See 2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,488. It is not
    the same as the difference between “major” and “area” sources,
    which is based on the volume of HAPs a source emits. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (a).
    22
    Boiler                           Hg       Hg
    Size      Age
    Subcategory                       Limit    Type
    New       Numeric   MACT
    Large
    Existing   Numeric   MACT
    New        Tune-    MACT
    Coal
    Up
    Small
    Existing    Tune-    MACT
    Up
    New           ---      ---
    Large
    Existing       ---      ---
    Biomass
    New           ---      ---
    Small
    Existing       ---      ---
    New           ---      ---
    Large
    Existing       ---      ---
    Oil
    New           ---      ---
    Small
    Existing       ---      ---
    Boiler                           CO       CO
    Size      Age
    Subcategory                       Limit    Type
    New       Numeric   MACT
    Large
    Existing   Numeric   MACT
    Coal
    New       Tune-up   MACT
    Small
    Existing   Tune-up   MACT
    New       Tune-up   GACT
    Large
    Existing   Tune-up   GACT
    Biomass
    New       Tune-up   GACT
    Small
    Existing   Tune-up   GACT
    New       Tune-up   GACT
    Large
    Existing   Tune-up   GACT
    Oil
    New       Tune-up   GACT
    Small
    Existing   Tune-up   GACT
    23
    Boiler                            PM        PM
    Size     Age
    Subcategory                        Limit     Type
    New       Numeric    GACT
    Large
    Existing   Tune-up    GACT
    Coal
    New       Tune-up    GACT
    Small
    Existing   Tune-up    GACT
    New       Numeric    GACT
    Large
    Existing   Tune-up    GACT
    Biomass
    New       Tune-up    GACT
    Small
    Existing   Tune-up    GACT
    New       Numeric    GACT
    Large
    Existing   Tune-up    GACT
    Oil
    New       Tune-up    GACT
    Small
    Existing   Tune-up    GACT
    2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,488-89, 7,517-19.
    The Area Boilers Rule shares many of the same features
    as the Major Boilers Rule; for example, the Area Boilers Rule
    treats startups, shutdowns, and malfunctions in the same
    fashion as the Major Boilers Rule, see supra § I.B.1.c—i.e.,
    the Area Boilers Rule creates work-practice (or management-
    practice) standards for startup and shutdown periods but does
    not account for malfunctions at all, save for the Agency’s
    commitment to consider malfunctions on a case-by-case basis.
    See 2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,496; 2011 Area
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,560-61. Additionally, the
    Area Boilers Rule imposes the same one-time energy-
    assessment requirement for existing large area boilers that the
    Major Boilers Rule imposes for existing major boilers. See
    supra § I.B.1.d; see also 2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed.
    Reg. at 7,500; 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    24
    15,560, 15,567-68. There are, however, two unique features
    of the Area Boilers Rule that warrant brief discussion.
    a. Exclusion of “Temporary Boilers”
    After the EPA promulgated the 2011 Area Boilers Rule
    but before it promulgated the 2013 version, it proposed an
    amendment to 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.11195
     that added temporary
    boilers to the list of those boilers not regulated by
    section 7412.     See National Emission Standards for
    Hazardous Air Pollutants for Area Sources: Industrial,
    Commercial, and Institutional Boilers (2011 Proposed Area
    Boilers Rule on Reconsideration), 
    76 Fed. Reg. 80,532
    ,
    80,535 (Dec. 23, 2011). The EPA created the exclusion
    because, in its view, temporary boilers are “insignificant
    sources[] and were not included in the EPA’s analysis of the
    source category.” 
    Id.
     The Agency eventually defined
    “temporary boiler” as “any gaseous or liquid fuel boiler that is
    designed to, and is capable of, being carried or moved from
    one location to another by means of, for example, wheels,
    skids, carrying handles, dollies, trailers, or platforms.” See
    2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,491 (quoting 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.11237
    ).
    b. Title V Permit Exemption for Synthetic Area Sources
    As noted, see supra § I.A.3, Title V of the CAA imposes
    a permit requirement on all owners and operators of major
    and area HAP sources. See 42 U.S.C. § 7661a. The EPA,
    however, can exempt an area source subcategory if it finds
    “that compliance with such requirements is impracticable,
    infeasible, or unnecessarily burdensome on such categories.”
    Id. § 7661a(a). When it proposed the Area Boilers Rule in
    2010, the EPA considered exempting some area sources
    because, in its view, the existing restrictions on those sources
    25
    made Title V duplicative. See 2010 Proposed Area Boilers
    Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,910-13. At the time, the EPA
    announced that it did not intend to exempt “synthetic” area
    sources (i.e., area sources that, but for existing air-pollution
    controls, would be considered major sources). Id. at 31,913.
    In so doing, the EPA reasoned that synthetic area sources:
    (1) more closely resemble major sources than area sources,
    (2) are often located in populous areas, and (3) have high
    HAP emissions potential when uncontrolled. Id.
    But in the 2011 Area Boilers Rule, the EPA changed
    course and exempted synthetic area sources from the Title V
    permitting requirement. See 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,578. It
    reasoned that the “observations and data . . . relied upon in
    other rulemakings for distinguishing between sources that
    became synthetic area sources due to controls and other
    synthetic and natural area sources did not necessarily apply to
    this source category.” Id. In its view, it no longer had
    “sufficient information” to distinguish synthetic area sources
    from the others it exempted and, accordingly, “the rationale
    for exempting most area sources subject to this rule . . . is also
    now relevant for” synthetic area sources. Id.; see also 2013
    Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,497.
    3. The CISWI Rule
    In the CISWI Rule, the EPA created four CISWI
    subcategories: (1) incinerators (i.e., “units designed to burn
    [solid] waste materials for the purpose of disposal”);
    (2) small, remote incinerators (“SRIs”) (i.e., units that burn
    small waste batches); (3) energy recovery units (“ERUs”)
    (i.e., units that would be classified as boilers but for the fact
    they combust solid waste); and (4) waste-burning kilns (i.e.,
    units that would be classified as cement kilns if they did not
    26
    burn solid waste). 2013 CISWI Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 9,118.
    Initially, the EPA proposed a fifth subcategory—burn-off
    ovens—but eliminated burn-off ovens after comments
    revealed that it had greatly underestimated the number of
    units in that subcategory (36 versus 15,000) and that it lacked
    the requisite data to set limits for the units. See 2011 CISWI
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,734.             Of the four CISWI
    subcategories, the EPA further divided the ERU subcategory
    (for CO emissions only) into coal-fired, biomass-fired and
    oil/gas-fired ERUs and it further divided the waste-burning
    kiln subcategory (again, for CO emissions only) into long and
    preheater/precalcinator kilns. See 2013 CISWI Rule, 78 Fed.
    Reg. at 9,118 tbl.2.
    The EPA then set numeric MACT limits for the section
    7429(a)(4) pollutants.12 See 2011 CISWI Rule, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 15,709-10 tbl.1. Unlike the Major Boilers Rule and the
    Area Boilers Rule, the CISWI Rule contains no beyond-the-
    floor MACT standards. The EPA also declined to promulgate
    work-practice standards, concluding that it had no authority to
    do so because section 7429 includes no work-practice
    standard provision similar to that in section 7412. See id. at
    15,721.
    The CISWI Rule shares several features with the Major
    Boilers Rule. In the CISWI Rule, for instance, the EPA also
    used the UPL, see id. at 15,722-27, as well as the pollutant-
    by-pollutant approach, see id. at 15,719-21, in setting MACT
    floors. Based in part on the differences between section 7412
    12
    These pollutants are (1) PM, (2) sulfur dioxide (SO2),
    (3) HCl, (4) nitrogen oxide (NOx), (5) CO, (6) lead (Pb),
    (7) cadmium (Cd), (8) Hg, (9) dioxins and dibenzofurans, and (10)
    opacity (where appropriate). 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(4).
    27
    and section 7429, the CISWI rule has four unique
    characteristics we briefly describe.
    a. Startups, Shutdowns, and Malfunctions
    As discussed, see supra § II.B.1.c, the EPA imposed a
    work-practice standard for major and area source boilers
    during periods of startup and shutdown but declined to make
    any regulatory modification for malfunctions. See 2011
    Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613; 2011 Area
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,560-61. The CISWI Rule,
    however, makes no modification for any of these periods,
    mandating instead that the numeric MACT standards “apply
    at all times,” even when CISWI units are starting up or
    shutting down. 2011 CISWI Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,711,
    15,737-38. The Agency concluded that it had no legal
    authority under section 7429 to impose anything but a
    numeric MACT standard on CISWI units. See id. at 15,709
    tbl.1; see also id. at 15,737-38.
    b. The Record-Keeping Requirement
    Whether the EPA considers a combustion unit to be a
    boiler (and thus subject to section 7412) or a CISWI (and thus
    subject to section 7429) turns entirely on whether the unit
    combusts “solid waste.” See id. at 15,709. The term “solid
    waste” is defined in RCRA, 
    42 U.S.C. §§ 6901
     et seq., and
    clarified by EPA regulation, see Identification of Non-
    Hazardous Secondary Materials that Are Solid Waste (NHSM
    Rule), 
    76 Fed. Reg. 15,456
    , 15,457 (Mar. 21, 2011). See also
    2011 CISWI Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,709. If the unit
    combusts solid waste, it is a CISWI. Id.
    The source owner or operator initially decides whether
    the material its combustion unit burns meets the definition of
    28
    solid waste. See id. at 15,740. For this reason, the CISWI
    rule requires that the owner or operator of a combustion unit
    that burns materials “not clearly listed as traditional fuels”
    keep records explaining how the materials meet the regulatory
    definition of “non-solid waste.” Id.; see also 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.2175
    (v). Failure to do so means, for the purposes of the
    EPA, that “the operating unit is a CISWI unit.” 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.2265
    ; see also 2013 CISWI Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 9,188.
    c. Emissions Averaging
    During the notice-and-comment period, certain industry
    entities urged the EPA to allow a facility containing more
    than one CISWI unit to demonstrate compliance with the
    CISWI MACT standards by averaging the HAP emissions of
    all units in the facility. See Commercial and Industrial Solid
    Waste Incineration Units: Reconsideration and Proposed
    Amendments; Non-Hazardous Secondary Materials that Are
    Solid Waste (2011 Proposed CISWI Rule on
    Reconsideration), 
    76 Fed. Reg. 80,452
    , 80,463 (Dec. 23,
    2011). Although it allowed facility-wide averaging in the
    Major Boilers Rule, the Agency declined to allow it for
    facilities with CISWI units. See 
    id.
     The EPA explained, first,
    that “[t]he applicability of CISWI is such that each unit is an
    affected facility.” 
    Id.
     In response to further comments, the
    EPA subsequently explained that it did “not believe [it had]
    the legal authority to allow emissions averaging in CISWI or
    under section [7429] generally because each individual unit is
    an affected facility.” Summary of Public Comments and
    Responses for Commercial and Industrial Solid Waste
    Incineration Units (CISWI Rule—Responses to Comments),
    EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0119-2638-A2 (Dec. 2012), at 195.
    29
    d. Treatment of Units that Begin Combusting Solid Waste
    Finally, in the preamble to the 2011 CISWI Rule, the
    EPA stated broadly that “[u]nits that begin combusting solid
    waste are considered existing sources under CISWI.” 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,714 (emphasis added).            This categorical
    pronouncement drew objections from commentators who
    insisted that, if such units experienced an increase in HAP
    emissions, the units would meet the statutory definition of
    “modified solid waste incineration unit[s],” see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (g)(3), and would, accordingly, be subject to the
    MACT standards for new units, see 
    id.
     § 7429(g)(2). In the
    subsequent proposed CISWI Rule, the EPA clarified that
    “[a]n existing source will not be considered a new source
    solely due to a combustion material switch. Assuming new
    source applicability is not triggered, existing sources that
    change fuels or materials are considered existing
    sources . . . .”     2011 Proposed CISWI Rule on
    Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg. at 80,459.
    II. STANDARD OF REVIEW
    For each issue, the Petitioners argue that the EPA either
    misinterpreted the CAA, acted arbitrarily and capriciously, or
    both. We review the EPA’s construction of the statute under
    the two-part framework established in Chevron, U.S.A., Inc. v.
    Nat. Res. Def. Council, Inc., 
    467 U.S. 837
     (1984). At
    Chevron step 1, we ask whether the Congress “has directly
    spoken to the precise question at issue”; if it has, we “must
    give effect to [its] unambiguously expressed intent.” 
    Id. at 842-43
    . In so doing, we examine the CAA’s text, structure,
    purpose, and legislative history to determine if the Congress
    has expressed its intent unambiguously. See Bell Atl. Tel. Co.
    v. FCC, 
    131 F.3d 1044
    , 1047 (D.C. Cir. 1997). If the statute
    30
    is “silent or ambiguous with respect to the specific issue,” we
    proceed to Chevron step 2 and defer to the EPA’s
    interpretation so long as it is “based on a permissible
    construction of the statute.” Chevron, 
    467 U.S. at 842-43
    .
    The CAA authorizes the Court to “reverse any [EPA]
    action found to be . . . arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of
    discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7607
    (d)(9)(A). Our review is “narrow” and we will
    “not . . . substitute [our] judgment for that of the
    agency.” Motor Veh. Mfrs. Ass’n v. State Farm Mut. Auto.
    Ins. Co. (State Farm), 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983). We “must
    uphold an agency’s action where [the agency] ‘has considered
    the relevant factors and articulated a rational connection
    between the facts found and the choice made,’ and has not
    ‘relied on [improper] factors.’” Nat’l Ass’n of Clean Air
    Agencies v. EPA (NACAA), 
    489 F.3d 1221
    , 1228 (D.C. Cir.
    2007) (citations omitted) (quoting Allied Local & Reg’l Mfrs.
    Caucus v. EPA, 
    215 F.3d 61
    , 68 (D.C. Cir. 2000), and State
    Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
    ). A rule is arbitrary and capricious if
    the agency: (1) “has relied on factors which Congress has not
    intended it to consider,” (2) “entirely failed to consider an
    important aspect of the problem,” (3) “offered an explanation
    for its decision that runs counter to the evidence before the
    agency,” or (4) “is so implausible that it could not be ascribed
    to a difference in view or the product of agency expertise.”
    State Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
    .
    We review the EPA’s factual determinations for
    substantial evidence. 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)(E). We also “owe[]
    particular deference to EPA when its rulemakings rest upon
    matters of scientific and statistical judgment within [its]
    sphere of special competence and statutory jurisdiction.” Am.
    Coke & Coal Chems. Inst. v. EPA, 
    452 F.3d 930
    , 941 (D.C.
    31
    Cir. 2006). But “[w]e are hesitant to rubber-stamp EPA’s
    invocation of statistics without some explanation of the
    underlying principles or reasons why its formulas would
    produce an accurate result.” NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1145.
    III. INDUSTRY PETITIONERS’ CHALLENGES
    A. STARTUPS, SHUTDOWNS, AND MALFUNCTIONS
    Industry Petitioners raise two sets of challenges to
    startup, shutdown, and malfunction periods: (1) a challenge to
    the EPA’s failure to take malfunctions into account in the
    Major Boilers and Area Boilers Rules and (2) a challenge to
    EPA’s failure to take into account periods of startup,
    shutdown, and malfunction in the CISWI Rule. For the
    reasons that follow, we reject all of the Industry Petitioners’
    claims related to startups, shutdowns, and malfunctions.
    1. Periods of Malfunction in the Major Boilers and Area
    Boilers Rules
    First, Industry Petitioners challenge the Major Boilers
    and Area Boilers Rules’ failure to take malfunctions into
    account in setting MACT floors. See 2011 Major Boilers
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613; 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,560-61. The EPA defends its refusal to account for
    malfunctions on the basis of (1) the impracticability of
    accounting for events that are necessarily unpredictable, and
    (2) the EPA’s assertion that it will use its prosecutorial
    discretion to determine on a case-by-case basis whether an
    exceedance of emission standards is attributable to an
    excusable malfunction or whether applicable regulatory
    penalties should be imposed instead. See No. 11-1108 EPA
    Br. 38; No. 11-1141 EPA Br. 29.
    32
    Both sides agree that malfunctions are inevitable in the
    operation of area and major boilers. According to the EPA,
    “even equipment that is properly designed and maintained can
    sometimes fail and . . . such failure can sometimes cause an
    exceedance of the relevant emission standard.” 2011 Major
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613; 2011 Area Boilers Rule,
    76 Fed. Reg. at 15,561. Thus, the EPA defined a malfunction
    as a “sudden, infrequent, and not reasonably preventable
    failure of air pollution control and monitoring equipment,
    process equipment or a process to operate in a normal or usual
    manner.” 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613
    (citing 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.2
    ); 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,560 (same). In attempting to write rules to account
    for emissions, however, the EPA faced an intractable
    problem: how to account for a malfunction which is, by
    definition, unpredictable in terms of timing, duration,
    magnitude, and effect. While the existence of malfunctions is
    entirely predictable, the nature of those malfunctions is not,
    and it is the malfunction’s nature that affects emissions and
    thus is relevant to the application of emission limits.
    At first glance, the EPA’s chosen approach to
    malfunctions may seem counterintuitive, as the Agency
    appears to have several reasonable alternatives: it could
    exempt periods of malfunction entirely from the application
    of the emission standards; or it could apply the standards to
    malfunctions while giving boiler owners the opportunity to
    defend against a penalty by demonstrating they were not at
    fault for the malfunction. But the EPA has previously been
    stymied in its attempts to implement either of these solutions,
    as this court has concluded neither approach is consistent with
    the Agency’s enabling statutes. For instance, in Sierra Club
    III, the EPA attempted to exempt major sources from
    complying with emission standards during start up, shut
    33
    down, and malfunction. See 
    551 F.3d at 1027-28
    . This court
    rejected that approach because the Congress “required that
    there must be continuous section 112-compliant standards”
    and so the EPA lacked discretion to exempt certain periods
    from compliance, regardless of their unpredictability. 
    Id. at 1027
    . In NRDC III, this court considered a challenge to the
    affirmative defense provision the EPA adopted for persons
    defending against civil suits under 
    42 U.S.C. § 7604
    (a), which
    allows “any person” to “commence a civil action on his own
    behalf” against any entity alleged to be in violation of an
    emission standard or limitation. The affirmative defense
    provision was meant to shield alleged violators from liability
    for certain emissions violations caused by “unavoidable”
    malfunctions; under the provision, therefore, “the district
    court [could] assess penalties only if violators fail[ed] to meet
    [their] burden of proving all of the requirements in the
    affirmative defense.” NRDC III, 749 F.3d at 1062 (internal
    quotation omitted). The court rejected this provision as an
    impermissible intrusion on the judiciary’s role. See id. at
    1063 (“[U]nder this statute, deciding whether penalties are
    ‘appropriate’ in a given private civil suit is a job for the
    courts, not for EPA.”).
    Faced with an obvious dilemma, the EPA arrived at the
    approach it defends today. Malfunctions receive no special
    treatment and the EPA instead exercises “its enforcement
    discretion to address exceedances of emission limits that may
    be caused by such uncertain, unpredictable events, on a case-
    by-case basis.” No. 11-1108 EPA Br. 38; see also No. 11-
    1141 EPA Br. 29.          The EPA’s current treatment of
    malfunctions thus differs from its invalid affirmative defense
    provision because the Agency is exercising its own regulatory
    enforcement power on an ad hoc basis outside the context of
    citizen suits.    When an exceedance occurs during a
    34
    malfunction, the EPA determines what enforcement action—
    if any—it should take by considering “the good faith efforts
    of the source to minimize emissions during malfunction
    periods, including preventative and corrective actions, as well
    as root cause analyses to ascertain and rectify excess
    emissions.” 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613;
    see also 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,561
    (same). The EPA also considers whether the exceedance was
    in fact “not reasonably preventable” or whether it was
    “caused in part by poor maintenance or careless operation.”
    2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613 (citing 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.2
    ); see also 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 15,561 (same).
    For our purposes, we need not (indeed, must not)
    evaluate the policy implications of the EPA’s regulatory
    choice because our review is confined to determining whether
    the EPA’s regulation reflects a permissible reading of the
    applicable statute under Chevron. Here, we conclude that it
    does. The relevant statute requires only that the EPA set
    “achievable” standards, 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2), and it defines
    achievability to be no less “than the emission control that is
    achieved in practice by the best controlled similar source,” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(3). The “best controlled similar source,”
    however, is unlikely to be a malfunctioning source, and the
    EPA is bound to enact a standard in keeping with emission
    limits achieved by that “best controlled similar source.” If
    anything, then, the statutory language on its face prevents the
    EPA from taking into account the effect of potential
    malfunctions when setting MACT emission standards. At the
    very least, the language permits the EPA to ignore
    malfunctions in its standard-setting and account for them
    instead through its regulatory discretion. Our Sierra Club III
    decision confirms this. See 
    551 F.3d at 1027-28
    . Because the
    35
    EPA had no option to exclude these unpredictable periods, its
    approach is reasonable.       We therefore reject Industry
    Petitioners’ argument that the EPA either misinterpreted the
    CAA or acted arbitrarily and capriciously in failing to account
    for malfunctions when setting MACT floors in the Major and
    Area Boilers Rules.
    Nor do we agree with the Industry Petitioners’ secondary
    argument that the EPA acted arbitrarily and capriciously by
    failing to set a work-practice or a GACT management-
    practice standard for malfunction periods. First, the statute
    makes clear that these kinds of standards are to be set at the
    discretion of the EPA, so it would be difficult to interpret the
    statute consistently with its text while holding that the text’s
    permissive language in fact sets out a requirement that the
    Agency set work-practice or GACT management-practice
    standards.       As to work-practice standards, “[t]he
    Administrator may, in lieu [of a numeric standard],
    promulgate a design, equipment, work practice, or operational
    standard, or combination thereof,” and any such standard set
    must “in the Administrator’s judgment [be] consistent with
    the provisions of subsection (d).” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (h)(1). As
    to GACT management-practice standards, “the Administrator
    may . . . elect to promulgate” such standards with respect to
    certain “categories and subcategories of area sources.” 
    Id.
    § 7412(d)(5). It should go without saying that “may means
    may.” McCreary v. Offner, 
    172 F.3d 76
    , 83 (D.C. Cir. 1999)
    (internal quotations omitted).
    Second, the Petitioners have not demonstrated and the
    EPA does not concede that setting work-practice or GACT
    management-practice standards would even be feasible for
    periods of malfunction. As for work-practice standards, the
    EPA would have to conceive of a standard that could apply
    36
    equally to the wide range of possible boiler malfunctions,
    ranging from an explosion to minor mechanical defects. Any
    possible standard is likely to be hopelessly generic to govern
    such a wide array of circumstances. Similar problems exist
    for setting GACT management practices. These management
    practices would also need to apply to the wide range of
    possible malfunctions, and the EPA would need to determine
    that the standard would “reduce emissions of hazardous air
    pollutants,” an evidence-based standard that is difficult
    (perhaps impossible) to apply to the unpredictable
    circumstances       of      malfunctions.      
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(5). Thus, we reject the Industry Petitioners’
    argument that the EPA was required to set a work-practice or
    GACT management-practice standard for malfunction
    periods.
    In doing so, we are mindful that the EPA is not the only
    entity able to bring enforcement actions under the CAA, but
    that private citizens are also empowered to enforce emission
    standards by filing suit in district court. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7604
    (a). Assurances that the EPA will use its prosecutorial
    discretion to account for malfunctions would mean little if
    private citizens could seek strict enforcement of those same
    standards. But as we stated in NRDC III, “the Judiciary, not
    any executive agency, determines ‘the scope’—including the
    available remedies—‘of judicial power vested by’ statutes
    establishing private rights of action.” 749 F.3d at 1063
    (quoting City of Arlington v. FCC, 
    133 S. Ct. 1863
    , 1871
    (2013)). Accordingly, in citizen suits under the CAA, “the
    courts determine, on a case-by-case basis, whether civil
    penalties are ‘appropriate.’” 
    Id.
     Boiler operators can argue
    that penalties should not be assessed because of an
    unavoidable malfunction, and they can support that argument
    with other relevant facts, “such as the defendant’s ‘full
    37
    compliance history and good faith efforts to comply.’” 
    Id.
    (quoting 
    42 U.S.C. § 7413
    (e)(1)). The EPA can also provide
    supporting argumentation as intervenor or amicus. 
    Id.
     Courts
    should not hesitate to exercise their judicial authority to craft
    appropriate civil remedies in the case of emissions
    exceedances caused by unavoidable malfunctions.
    2. Periods of Startup, Shutdown, and Malfunction in the
    CISWI Rule
    In the CISWI Rule, the EPA made no modification for
    periods of startup, shutdown, or malfunction. The Industry
    Petitioners argue that failing to account for these periods
    violated the EPA’s statutory instruction to set “achievable”
    standards. Additionally, the Industry Petitioners claim it was
    arbitrary and capricious for the EPA to set work-practice
    standards for startup and shutdown periods under the Major
    Boilers Rule but not under the CISWI Rule. Both arguments
    are without merit.
    First, the EPA’s emission standards for small incinerators
    do take into account periods of shutdown and startup. The
    EPA based its standards for these machines on “short term
    stack tests for pollutants,” in which incinerators are monitored
    during the course of normal operation, which includes daily
    startup and shutdown periods. See 2011 CISWI Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,738. Thus, startup and shutdown times are already
    incorporated into the standards the EPA set, and what is more,
    nearly all pollutants are present in smaller numbers during
    startup and shutdown anyway, when incinerators are burning
    fuels alone rather than fuels and solid waste. See Standards of
    Performance for New Stationary Sources and Emission
    Guidelines for Existing Sources: Commercial and Industrial
    Solid Waste Incineration Units (2010 Proposed CISWI Rule),
    38
    
    75 Fed. Reg. 31,938
    , 31,964 (June 4, 2010). Given this
    reality, the CISWI Rule satisfies the statutory standard of
    “achievability” and is not arbitrary and capricious.
    Second, as to periods of malfunctions, the same analysis
    applies to the CISWI Rule as applies to the Boilers
    Rules. The EPA adopted a reasonable interpretation of the
    CAA when it excluded periods of malfunction from its
    calculations of achievability given that malfunction periods
    are by their very nature unpredictable in terms of their effect
    on emissions. The EPA’s decision to account for
    malfunctions in its discretion is likewise a reasonable
    interpretation of 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2) and (3).
    For these reasons, we reject the Industry Petitioners’
    challenges to the EPA’s regulatory choices with regard to
    periods of startup, shutdown, and malfunction.
    B. THE POLLUTANT-BY-POLLUTANT APPROACH
    The EPA must look to the performance of the best major
    boilers and CISWI incinerators when setting MACT floors for
    a pollutant. As described above, for new units, the EPA must
    set floors at the level achieved by the best similar unit in each
    subcategory. For existing units, the Agency must set floors at
    the level achieved by the best 12 per cent of similar units in
    each subcategory. 
    42 U.S.C. §§ 7412
    (d)(3)(A), 7429(a)(2).
    As a result, the EPA had to identify the best performing units
    in each subcategory when setting the MACT floors for the
    Major Boilers and CISWI Rules. But the EPA often could not
    identify a single unit or set of units that controlled all HAPs
    better than the other units in the subcategory. Instead, the
    EPA sometimes found that a unit might rank among the best
    39
    in its subcategory at controlling emissions of one HAP, but
    among the worst at controlling emissions of a different HAP.
    To address this problem, the EPA adopted a “pollutant-
    by-pollutant” approach in setting the MACT floors: instead of
    identifying the unit or units that best controlled all HAPs in
    the aggregate, the EPA used one unit or set of units to set the
    MACT floor for, e.g., PM, and used a different unit or set of
    units to set the MACT floor for, e.g., HCl. See 2011 Major
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,621-23; 2011 CISWI Rule,
    76 Fed. Reg. at 15,720-21. For at least two subcategories of
    major boilers—new heavy oil-fired units and existing stoker
    coal-fired units—the EPA’s pollutant-by-pollutant approach
    resulted in MACT floors that no unit in the subcategory had
    achieved in toto. Similarly, for small, remote incinerators
    (SRIs), the approach resulted in standards for existing units
    that only two of the 28 SRI units had met in toto, and
    standards for new units that no existing SRI had met in toto.
    The Industry Petitioners challenge the EPA’s use of the
    pollutant-by-pollutant approach. According to the Industry
    Petitioners, the CAA’s plain language requires the Agency to
    identify the best overall unit or set of units—not the best unit
    or set of units for a particular pollutant—in each subcategory
    when setting MACT floors. They further claim the EPA’s
    pollutant-by-pollutant approach was unreasonable with regard
    to SRIs because it resulted in a set of emission standards that
    no single unit in the subcategory had achieved in practice.
    We disagree, and conclude that the EPA’s pollutant-by-
    pollutant approach is a reasonable interpretation and
    application of the statute.
    For the purposes of this challenge, the MACT floor
    provisions for major boilers and CISWI units are identical.
    40
    Under both provisions, the EPA must set emission standards
    for new units based on “the emissions control that is achieved
    in practice by the best controlled similar unit, as determined
    by the Administrator.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2) (CISWI); see
    also 
    id.
     § 7412(d)(3) (major boilers). For existing units, the
    MACT floor is based on “the average emissions limitation
    achieved by the best performing 12 percent of units in the
    category.”     Id. § 7429(a)(2) (CISWI); see also id.
    § 7412(d)(3)(A) (major boilers).
    The Industry Petitioners claim this language
    unambiguously forecloses the EPA’s pollutant-by-pollutant
    approach. For new units, they assert, the statute requires the
    EPA to find the single unit that performs best overall and use
    this unit—and only this unit—to set standards for all
    regulated pollutants. For example, if Incinerator 3 were
    deemed the best overall performer in a subcategory, then the
    EPA would use Incinerator 3’s emissions levels to set
    standards for PM, CO, and each of the other regulated
    pollutants. This would be true even if Incinerator 1 in the
    same subcategory had lower CO emissions and Incinerator 2
    had lower PM emissions. The Industry Petitioners also make
    this argument for existing sources. For these units, under
    their interpretation, the mandate to identify the “best
    performing 12 percent of units” required the EPA to use data
    from the 12 per cent of sources with the lowest overall
    emissions in the subcategory.         In short, the Industry
    Petitioners argue that the best “unit” referred to by the
    provision cannot be a “hypothetical composite” of multiple
    units that result in standards for new units that no actual unit
    has met in practice with regard to every pollutant, or
    standards for existing units that 12 per cent of actual units
    have not met with regard to every pollutant.
    41
    The Industry Petitioners read too much into the statutory
    language. It is true that the statute requires the EPA to base
    MACT standards on what is “achieved” by the best “unit” or
    “12 percent of units.” But, as the EPA argues, the statute says
    nothing about how the Agency should determine which units
    are the best. Cf. Sierra Club v. EPA, 
    167 F.3d 658
    , 661 (D.C.
    Cir. 1999) (noting that section 7429(a) “on its own says
    nothing about how the performance of the best units is to be
    calculated”). Both the industry-favored method of choosing
    the best overall unit and the EPA’s method of choosing the
    best unit as to each particular pollutant facially comport with
    the statute’s mandate to determine which units are best.
    Because the statute is ambiguous as to how the EPA should
    identify those units, we must defer to the Agency’s choice so
    long as it is reasonable. See Sierra Club I, 
    353 F.3d at 990
    .
    Here, the EPA’s choice is reasonable. The statute
    provides that emission standards shall reflect “the maximum
    degree of reduction in emissions of [regulated pollutants] that
    the Administrator . . . determines is achievable for new or
    existing units in each category.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2); see
    also 
    id.
     § 7412(d)(2). It then provides that the “degree of
    reduction in emissions that is deemed achievable for new
    units in a category shall not be less stringent than the
    emissions control that is achieved in practice by the best
    controlled similar unit, as determined by the Administrator.”
    Id. § 7429(a)(2); see also id. § 7412(d)(3). Reading these
    provisions together, they support a pollutant-by-pollutant
    approach. The “best controlled similar unit” language does
    not exist in a vacuum; rather, it exists to measure the “degree
    of reduction in emissions that is deemed achievable.” Id.
    § 7429(a)(2); see also id. § 7412(d)(3). That “reduction in
    emissions” is the reduction in emissions of each pollutant
    listed in sections 7429(a)(4) and 7412(b)(1). The EPA’s
    42
    approach to setting standards on a pollutant-by-pollutant basis
    thus comfortably fits within this statutory scheme.
    Moreover, the Industry Petitioners have not explained
    how their preferred approach would better comport with the
    statute. Were the EPA required to determine which units
    perform best “overall,” we see at least two possibilities for
    how it could do so: First, the EPA could calculate a unit’s
    average emissions for each pollutant in consistent units of
    measurement, add these emissions together, and then choose
    the unit with the smallest overall sum in each subcategory.
    But this approach could produce arbitrary results, because the
    “best performing” overall unit might emit unusually low
    quantities of some pollutants and unusually high quantities of
    others. This would mean the emission standards for some
    pollutants would be lenient while others would be stringent,
    with no principled reason for the difference. Alternatively,
    the Agency could identify which source is best overall based
    on which emits the lowest level of the riskiest pollutants. But
    this approach would require the Agency to rank pollutants’
    relative risks without any congressional guidance on how to
    do so. This approach would also contravene our previous
    understanding of the congressional intent behind the MACT
    floor provisions. As we have explained, the MACT floors
    “are to be based not on an assessment of the risks posed by
    [pollutants], but instead on the maximum achievable control
    technology (MACT) for sources in each category.” Sierra
    Club I, 
    353 F.3d at 980
    .
    The Industry Petitioners nevertheless argue that the
    CAA’s legislative history supports their preferred approach.
    In particular, they point to the floor comments of Senator
    Durenberger discussing the potential impact on MACT floors
    of mutually incompatible control technologies. 136 Cong.
    43
    Rec. S17,238 (daily ed. Oct. 26, 1990) (statement of Senator
    Durenberger). Mutually incompatible control technologies
    cannot be used at the same time and therefore present
    regulators with a dilemma. For example, say Technology 1
    and Technology 2 cannot be used together. If Technology 1
    is better at reducing PM than Technology 2, and Technology
    2 is better at reducing CO than Technology 1, the EPA would
    have to choose which of the two technologies to factor into
    emission standards. In such situations, Senator Durenberger
    anticipated that the “EPA should judge MACT to be the
    technology which best benefits human health and the
    environment on the whole.” 
    Id.
     The Industry Petitioners
    argue this statement demonstrates that Congress intended the
    EPA to make an overall determination of which units are the
    best performing “on the whole.”
    Senator Durenberger’s statement does not support this
    broad principle. The statement merely explains that, where
    two technologies cannot be used together, the EPA should
    base MACT standards on the technology it considers best
    overall. Here, the Industry Petitioners do not identify any
    relevant control technologies that are mutually incompatible.
    Indeed, the EPA found in the CISWI Rule that “there is no
    technical reason why [the] air pollution control systems
    cannot be combined.” 2011 CISWI Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    15,721; see also 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    15,623 (“All available data for boilers and process heaters
    indicate that there is no technical problem achieving the floor
    levels contained in this final rule for each HAP
    simultaneously, using the MACT floor technology.”). There
    is thus no reason to believe that the EPA’s current MACT
    floor standards cannot be achieved. Instead, the Industry
    Petitioners merely insist that no units currently meet the
    EPA’s new unit standards with regard to every regulated
    44
    pollutant in certain subcategories, and only a few sources
    meet all of the standards for existing units in the same
    subcategories. But, if the statute permits the EPA to
    determine which units are best on a pollutant-by-pollutant
    basis—and it does—then the EPA’s choice to adopt that
    approach does not become unlawful merely because few or no
    units have achieved those standards for all pollutants.
    Finally, the Industry Petitioners argue that even if the
    pollutant-by-pollutant approach is reasonable in some
    circumstances, it is arbitrary and capricious as applied to
    certain SRIs because it exacerbates certain problems posed by
    the “batch” nature of SRIs. As explained at infra § III.E,
    SRIs burn waste in small batches. According to the
    Petitioners, this means that the SRIs that the EPA identified as
    best performing were, in reality, burning cleaner waste at the
    time emissions testing was done; they were not actually better
    than other units at removing or destroying waste. The
    pollutant-by-pollutant approach, the Industry Petitioners
    argue, “simply captures the results from units that happened
    to be burning wastes with low levels of that particular
    pollutant during testing,” and this reality makes it harder for
    SRI units to meet emission standards for all pollutants at the
    same time. No. 11-1125 Indus. Pet’rs’ Reply Br. 8 (emphasis
    omitted).
    This argument fails because the Industry Petitioners have
    not demonstrated that the Agency considered impermissible
    factors, failed “to consider important aspect[s] of the
    problem,” or offered an unreasonable explanation for its
    decision when setting the MACT floors for SRIs. See State
    Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
    . Rather, their argument is a back-door
    attempt to challenge the Agency’s alleged failure to consider
    waste inputs, which we reject below at infra § III.E.
    45
    Petitioners have also not shown that it is infeasible for the SRI
    units to meet the MACT floor standards or that any individual
    pollutant standard was not achieved in practice by an existing
    SRI unit. They merely assert, without evidence, that no
    existing unit burning high sulfur garbage can match the SO2
    performance achieved by the unit the EPA used to set SO2
    standards because that latter unit was burning low sulfur
    waste at the time of the emissions testing. But MACT floors
    are not unreasonable simply because they are difficult to
    achieve in practice. As such, we find the EPA’s pollutant-by-
    pollutant approach to be a reasonable interpretation and
    application of the statute, and deny the Industry Petitioners’
    challenge to the EPA’s use of this approach.
    C. THE ENERGY-ASSESSMENT REQUIREMENT
    The Major Boilers Rule and the Area Boilers Rule
    generally require sources with existing boilers to perform a
    one-time energy assessment. In the assessment, facilities
    must “identify energy conservation measures”—such as
    “process changes or other modifications to the facility”—
    “that can be implemented to reduce the facility energy
    demand,” thereby “reduc[ing] fuel use.” 2011 Area Boilers
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,573; see also 2011 Major Boilers
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,632. While facilities must conduct
    the assessment, they need not implement its conclusions. See
    2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,573; 2011 Major
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,632.
    The logic behind the assessment is straightforward.
    Boilers produce HAP emissions when fuel is combusted.
    Less combustion means fewer emissions. The EPA primarily
    justified the assessment as a beyond-the-floor MACT
    requirement under section 7412(d)(2). See 2011 Area Boilers
    46
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,573; 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76
    Fed. Reg. at 15,632. With respect to certain biomass and oil-
    fired boilers located at area sources, the assessment was
    justified as a GACT management practice under
    section 7412(d)(5). See 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 15,567.
    Industry Petitioners raise three principal challenges to the
    energy-assessment requirement, none of which have purchase.
    The first challenge claims that the energy assessment
    regulates aspects of facilities that are off limits to the EPA—
    namely, the energy needs supplied by regulated boilers.
    Petitioners point to the language of the CAA, which requires
    the EPA to “list . . . categories and subcategories of major
    sources and area sources” of enumerated air pollutants. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c)(1). “For the categories and subcategories
    the Administrator lists, the Administrator” must set
    “emissions standards under” section 7412(d).                   
    Id.
    § 7412(c)(2). As relevant here, the EPA defined the source
    categories to include “industrial boilers and commercial and
    institutional boilers.” 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    15,557; 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,608. To
    the extent the assessment concerns parts of the facility other
    than the boiler itself, the Industry Petitioners claim it exceeds
    the EPA’s authority.
    The Industry Petitioners misapprehend both the scope of
    the assessment and the CAA. The assessment requires
    facilities to evaluate energy systems “located on the site of the
    affected boiler,” including “[p]rocess heating[,] compressed
    air systems[,] . . . facility heating, ventilation, and air
    conditioning systems,” and “[o]ther systems that use steam,
    hot water, process heat, or electricity, provided by the affected
    boiler.” 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.11237
    ; see 
    id.
     § 63.7575. Based on
    47
    that evaluation, facilities must compile a “comprehensive
    report detailing the ways to improve efficiency, the cost of
    specific improvements, [anticipated] benefits, and the time
    frame for recouping those investments.” 40 C.F.R. pt. 63,
    subpt. JJJJJJ tbl.2; id. pt. 63, subpt. DDDDD tbl.3.
    Contrary to the Industry Petitioners’ argument, the EPA
    has not “regulate[d] virtually every piece of equipment at all
    affected facilities.” No. 11-1141 Indus. Pet’rs’ Br. 19. Only
    “energy use systems” that “us[e] energy clearly produced by
    affected boilers” must be evaluated; facilities need not review
    the “total aggregation of all individual energy using segments
    of a facility.” 2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,493
    (emphasis added); see also 2013 Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed.
    Reg. at 7,188. The assessment focuses on “discrete segments
    of a facility,” such as “production area[s] or building[s]”
    associated with a particular boiler. 2013 Area Boilers Rule,
    78 Fed. Reg. at 7,493; see 2013 Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed.
    Reg. at 7,188. Energy requirements satisfied by other
    sources—not by a HAP-emitting boiler—fall outside of that
    mandate. See 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,573
    (limiting the assessment to “specific portions of the source
    that directly affect emissions from the affected boiler”). And
    regulated facilities are under no obligation to implement the
    results they reach. In essence, rather than setting inflexible
    and generally applicable beyond-the-floor numeric limits, the
    EPA required facilities to take stock of the actual energy
    demands placed on their boilers. By reducing energy
    demands and associated fuel consumption, facilities could
    reduce HAP emissions. That requirement is more measured
    than the Industry Petitioners contend.
    And that measured requirement falls within the EPA’s
    statutory authority. The CAA authorizes the EPA to regulate
    48
    “major sources and area sources” of HAPs, and to subdivide
    those sources into categories and subcategories. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c)(1), (c)(2). To Industry Petitioners, the authority to
    subdivide sources means the EPA may only regulate the
    narrowest applicable categorization—in this instance,
    commercial and industrial boilers. But the statute does not
    require so rigid a reading. While the EPA is permitted to
    subdivide sources, each subdivision remains a component of
    either a major or area “source.” Dividing sources into
    categories and subcategories does not make them any less of a
    “source” subject to the EPA’s regulation.
    For that reason, the EPA explained that the Rules reach,
    respectively, “[a]ny area source facility using a boiler,” 2011
    Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,555 (emphasis added),
    and “major source facilities having affected boilers or process
    heaters,” 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,613
    (emphasis added). Likewise, the regulations implementing
    the energy assessment requirement apply to those who “own
    or operate an existing affected boiler,” not merely to the
    boiler itself. 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.11214
    (c); see 
    id.
     § 63.7485.
    Going further, the relevant part of the CFR applies, by its own
    terms, to the “owner or operator of any stationary source.” Id.
    § 63.1(b)(1).
    The Congress’s definition of the terms major and area
    source supports this reading. At bottom, both terms refer to a
    “stationary source.” See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (a)(1), (a)(2).
    Stationary source, in turn, means “any building, structure,
    facility, or installation which emits or may emit any air
    pollutant.” 
    Id.
     § 7411(a)(3). Against that backdrop, the Rules
    apply to any “building, structure, facility, or installation” that
    contains a boiler emitting the specified HAPs. The EPA’s
    49
    regulatory authority reaches the relevant stationary source, of
    which the boiler is part.
    That the EPA may regulate stationary sources does not
    mean it may regulate every nook and cranny of those sources.
    The CAA directs its authority to the establishment of
    emission standards; it does not provide some general power to
    superintend the business processes of plants and
    manufacturing facilities. In this case, however, we have no
    occasion to parse the precise parameters of the EPA’s
    authority to regulate aspects of area sources. It is enough to
    conclude that the challenged energy assessment—which
    applies only to systems that “us[e] energy clearly produced by
    affected boilers”—falls within the EPA’s authority under the
    CAA. 2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,493; 2013
    Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,188.
    In the remaining two challenges, the Industry Petitioners
    take issue with the EPA’s justification of the energy
    assessment as a beyond-the-floor MACT standard and a
    GACT management-practice standard.         We reject both
    challenges.
    The assessment represents a valid beyond-the-floor
    MACT standard.13 As discussed, after the Agency sets the
    MACT floor, it must determine “whether stricter standards
    are ‘achievable,’” Nat’l Lime Ass’n, 
    233 F.3d at 629
     (quoting
    
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2)), considering costs, “any non-air
    13
    In addition to challenging the assessment as a beyond-the-
    floor measure, the Industry Petitioners claim the assessment
    represents an invalid work-practice standard. But “[t]he energy
    assessment is not . . . a work practice standard, and EPA makes no
    claim that it is.” No. 11-1141 EPA Br. 47 n.9. Therefore, we
    decline to address that contention.
    50
    quality health and environmental impacts and energy
    requirements,” 42 US.C. § 7412(d)(2). These “measures,
    processes, methods, systems or techniques includ[e], but [are]
    not limited to, measures which—
    (A) reduce the volume of, or eliminate emissions
    of, such pollutants through process changes,
    substitution    of    materials   or   other
    modifications, . . .
    (D) are design, equipment, work practice, or
    operational standards . . . or
    (E) are a combination of the above.
    Id. The EPA primarily justified the energy assessment as a
    beyond-the-floor measure designed to identify “process
    changes or other modifications to the facility” that would
    reduce fuel use and thereby reduce hazardous emissions.
    2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,573; 2011 Major
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,632.
    The Industry Petitioners argue that the EPA skipped a
    step, imposing the energy assessment as a beyond-the-floor
    measure without first setting a relevant MACT floor. That is
    incorrect. The EPA first set a numeric MACT emissions limit
    for the categories and subcategories of sources subject to the
    energy assessment. See 40 C.F.R. pt. 63, subpt. JJJJJ tbl.1; id.
    pt. 63, subpt. DDDDD tbl.2. The energy assessment
    represents a step beyond that—a measure designed to
    discover energy efficiencies that, once implemented, could
    decrease emissions below the floor level.
    Before setting a beyond-the-floor measure, the EPA must
    consider whether it is “achievable” based on a number of
    51
    factors, among them cost, “non-air quality health and
    environmental impacts and energy requirements.” 42 US.C.
    § 7412(d)(2). The EPA did so here. To begin, the EPA
    adequately considered costs. In the EPA’s estimation, “[t]he
    one-time cost of an energy assessment ranges from $2500 to
    $55,000 depending on the size of the facility.” 2010 Proposed
    Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,907; National Emission
    Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources:
    Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional Boilers and Process
    Heaters (2010 Proposed Major Boilers Rule), 
    75 Fed. Reg. 32,006
    , 32,026 (June 4, 2010). Because saving fuel saves
    money, common sense suggested that sources would often
    find the energy assessment “cost-effective” to implement.
    2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,568 (“By
    definition, any emission reduction [achieved as a result of the
    energy assessment] would be cost effective or else it would
    not be implemented.”); see also 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76
    Fed. Reg. at 15,633.
    In addition to costs, the EPA considered non-air quality
    health and environmental impacts in general terms,
    concluding that “improving energy efficiency reduces
    negative impacts on the environment.” 2010 Proposed Area
    Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,907; 2010 Proposed Major
    Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 32,026. Given the nature of the
    assessment, the EPA’s somewhat terse analysis of health and
    environmental impacts suffices. Performing the assessment
    involves rudimentary tasks—examining the boiler and
    associated energy systems and drafting a report—that do not
    impose meaningful health or environmental impacts. The
    same holds for the EPA’s consideration of energy use
    requirements. Facilities would expend very little energy in
    conducting the one-time assessment, and could conserve
    52
    energy by implementing the results. The assessment therefore
    represents a lawful beyond-the-floor measure.
    We also find that the assessment is a valid GACT
    management practice. With respect to area sources, the EPA
    has discretion to require the use of “generally available
    control technologies or management practices . . . to reduce
    emissions of hazardous air pollutants.”           
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(5). The EPA justified the energy assessment as a
    GACT management practice for oil- and biomass-fired
    boilers. See 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,567.
    The Industry Petitioners challenge that justification,
    claiming the energy assessment—which does not require
    implementation—cannot “reduce emissions of hazardous air
    pollutants.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(5). We disagree. The EPA
    did not need to make implementation mandatory to make the
    assessment lawful. Under the CAA, the EPA may sometimes
    act with a soft touch, rather than a firm hand. Here, the EPA
    selected a soft touch, requiring an assessment but not
    implementation. It was not unreasonable for the EPA to
    conclude, “after considering the structure of the requirement,
    the incentives it presents, and the likely behavior of
    sources, . . . that sources will find it cost-effective to
    implement the conservation measures identified in the energy
    assessment.” 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,573.
    If the results were implemented, HAP emissions would be
    reduced. For present purposes, that is enough.
    For those reasons, we reject the Industry Petitioners’
    challenges to the energy-assessment requirement.
    53
    D. RECORDKEEPING REQUIREMENT FOR CISWI UNITS
    Section 7429 regulates combustion units that burn solid
    waste; units that do not burn solid waste will generally be
    regulated under section 7412. RCRA defines the term “solid
    waste” to mean (in part) “discarded material . . . resulting
    from industrial [or] commercial . . . operations.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 6903
    (27); see 
    id.
     § 7429(g)(6) (directing that “solid waste”
    carry “the meanings established by the Administrator
    pursuant to” RCRA). On the same day the EPA issued a rule
    setting emission standards for CISWI, it issued a separate rule
    fleshing out the meaning of solid waste in the context of
    combustion units. See NHSM Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,456.
    The NHSM Rule generally provides that “non-hazardous
    secondary materials that are combusted are solid wastes,”14
    subject to several exceptions and exemptions. 
    40 C.F.R. § 241.3
    (a). Among the exceptions, non-hazardous secondary
    materials that meet certain “legitimacy” criteria do not qualify
    as solid waste. See 
    id.
     § 241.3(b), (d). Source owners and
    operators may also seek a finding from the EPA that
    particular materials do not constitute solid waste when
    combusted by a third party. Id. § 241.3(c). And the rule
    exempts altogether a variety of materials from the definition
    of solid waste, including “traditional fuels.” Id. § 241.2.
    The NHSM Rule is self-implementing: each source
    owner or operator must determine whether combusted
    materials meet the definition of solid waste. See 2011 CISWI
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,740. To ensure that owners and
    14
    The NHSM Rule defines non-hazardous secondary material
    to “mean[] a secondary material that, when discarded, would not be
    identified as a hazardous waste.” 
    40 C.F.R. § 241.2
    .
    54
    operators “review and apply” the NHSM Rule and its
    exceptions, the EPA issued strict recordkeeping requirements.
    
    Id.
     Owners and operators who determine the secondary
    materials they combust are not solid waste must “keep a
    record” justifying that decision. 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.2175
    (v).
    Failing to file records carries consequences. For units
    combusting discarded material other than traditional fuels, the
    failure to “keep and produce records” results in the
    determination that “the operating unit is a CISWI unit.” 
    Id.
    §§ 60.2265, 60.2875 (containing an identical provision).
    Industry Petitioners challenge this last provision of the
    CISWI Rule.15 They argue that the EPA cannot automatically
    treat units that fail to keep certain paperwork as CISWI units.
    Section 7429 permits regulation of “solid waste incineration
    units”—not units whose owners fail to file paperwork. As a
    result, the Industry Petitioners ask this court to invalidate the
    regulatory provision as exceeding the EPA’s statutory
    authority.16
    We decline the invitation. At Chevron’s first step, we
    find that “Congress did not speak directly, let alone clearly, to
    15
    In their reply brief, the Industry Petitioners clarify that they
    do not challenge the EPA’s authority to require sources to keep
    records.
    16
    The Industry Petitioners also argue the EPA arbitrarily
    failed to provide sufficient notice of the recordkeeping
    presumption. We disagree. The Industry Petitioners had sufficient
    notice of the CISWI Rule, which was promulgated after notice and
    comment and “give[s] fair warning of the conduct it prohibits.”
    Gen. Elec. Co. v. EPA, 
    53 F.3d 1324
    , 1328 (D.C. Cir. 1995)
    (quoting Gates & Fox Co. v. OSHRC, 
    790 F.2d 154
    , 156 (D.C. Cir.
    1986)).
    55
    this issue.” Am. Chem. Council v. EPA, 
    337 F.3d 1060
    , 1064
    (D.C. Cir. 2003). Section 7429 regulates “solid waste
    incineration units,” a phrase that Congress defined “plainly
    and broadly to include ‘a distinct operating unit of any facility
    which combusts any solid waste material from commercial or
    industrial establishments or the general public.’” NRDC I,
    
    489 F.3d at 1257
     (emphasis omitted) (quoting 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (g)(1)). In NRDC I, we vacated an earlier iteration of
    the CISWI Rule that narrowed the scope of that definition
    beyond what its language would bear. See 
    id. at 1257-58
    .
    When the Congress commanded the EPA to regulate units
    that burn “any” solid waste, the Congress meant what it said.
    See 
    id.
    In this case, the EPA included within the revised CISWI
    Rule a presumption designed to enforce the Congress’s
    command. Section 7429 nowhere addresses whether the EPA
    may establish presumptions to ensure its regulations reach all
    sources burning solid waste. At the same time, the Congress
    plainly intended the EPA to regulate sources burning “any”
    solid waste, a goal presumably advanced by the
    recordkeeping presumption. See 
    id.
     Against that backdrop,
    we cannot conclude that the presumption offends the text or
    purpose of section 7429.
    Moving to Chevron’s second step, we conclude the
    recordkeeping presumption is reasonable. In American
    Chemistry Council, we upheld a regulation issued under
    RCRA defining hazardous waste to include any mixture or
    derivative of hazardous substances. See 
    337 F.3d at 1064-65
    .
    “[B]ecause many mixtures of and derivatives from hazardous
    wastes are themselves hazardous, it [was] reasonable for the
    EPA to assume that all such mixtures and derivatives are
    hazardous until shown otherwise.” 
    Id. at 1065
    . In that
    56
    context, it made good sense for the EPA to “[p]lac[e] the
    burden upon the regulated entity” to show that a given
    substance lacked “hazardous characteristic[s].” 
    Id.
    Similar reasoning applies here. The EPA crafted the
    presumption to reach sources likely to be burning solid waste,
    namely, those burning discarded materials other than
    traditional fuels. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 6903
    (27) (defining “solid
    waste” to include, among other things, “discarded material”);
    
    40 C.F.R. § 241.2
     (exempting traditional fuels, defined as
    “materials that are produced as fuels . . . that have not been
    discarded,” from the definition of solid waste). Such sources
    are subject to strict recordkeeping requirements. See 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.2175
    (v). Within those confines, placing the
    burden on unit operators who have the mandatory obligation
    and the information to establish their non-regulable status is
    reasonable. Cf. Am. Chem. Council, 
    337 F.3d at 1065
    .
    There is, however, a difference between the presumption
    in this case and the one we upheld in American Chemistry
    Council. The CISWI recordkeeping presumption appears to
    turn on the failure to file paperwork, rather than the presence
    of a regulated substance. However broadly the Congress
    defined “solid waste incineration unit” in section 7429, the
    Congress did not allow for the regulation of non-waste
    burning sources—even when those sources fail to file
    paperwork. Indeed, had the EPA attempted to regulate
    sources based purely on a failure to file paperwork, we may
    well have reached a different conclusion.
    But the CISWI presumption does not stretch so far. As
    explained, the presumption depends on factors beyond the
    mere failure to keep records. Sources subject to the
    presumption burn materials likely to qualify as solid waste,
    57
    and must satisfy demanding recordkeeping requirements. The
    EPA acted reasonably when it presumed such sources were
    burning solid waste.
    Despite the provision’s narrow reach, the Industry
    Petitioners fear it will sweep up sources not burning solid
    waste.     To the extent that possibility exists, sources
    wrongfully regulated as CISWI have multiple forms of
    recourse. Most obviously, sources can prepare and file the
    records they were already required to make under 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.2175
    (v). They can also avail themselves of procedures
    designed to identify non-waste materials in 
    40 C.F.R. § 241.3
    .
    The existence of these safety valves calms concerns that the
    presumption will regulate non-waste burning sources.
    We therefore reject the Industry Petitioners’ challenges
    to the recordkeeping presumption.17
    E. WASTE-STREAM VARIANCE FOR SRI UNITS
    The EPA regulated SRIs as a subcategory in the CISWI
    Rule. See Memorandum from Eastern Research Group, Inc.,
    to Toni Jones, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, CISWI
    Emission Limit Calculations for Existing and New Sources
    for the Reconsideration Final Rule (Jones Mem.) (Nov. 16,
    2012) (No. 11-1125 J.A. 1159, 1162). There are 28 SRI units,
    17
    The Industry Petitioners also contend that the CISWI Rule
    functions as a form of injunctive relief in violation of 
    42 U.S.C. § 7413
    (a). That is incorrect. The provision is neither styled nor
    operated as a form of injunctive relief. Cf. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7413
    (a)
    (permitting the Administrator to issue, among other forms of relief,
    “an administrative penalty order” or “an order requiring [a person
    in violation of EPA regulations] to comply with such requirement
    or prohibition”).
    58
    all of which are located in Alaska, and the EPA had emissions
    data for nine of them. 
    Id.
     As explained supra § I.B.3, the
    EPA used the pollutant-by-pollutant approach to establish
    MACT emission standards for these units. For new-unit
    standards, the EPA determined which of the nine units had the
    lowest emissions for a particular pollutant and set the MACT
    floor for that pollutant at the level achieved by the identified
    unit. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2) (explaining that MACT
    floors for new units must be set at “the emissions control that
    is achieved in practice by the best controlled similar unit”).
    When setting MACT floors for existing units, the EPA had to
    calculate the average level of emissions achieved by the best
    performing 12 per cent of units. See 
    id.
     It therefore
    determined which four sources had the lowest emissions for a
    given pollutant and set the emissions standard for that
    pollutant at the average level achieved by those four units.
    The Industry Petitioners argue that the EPA’s approach
    was unlawful because it failed to account for the unique role
    that waste inputs play in emissions from SRIs. Unlike larger
    incinerators, SRIs burn small batches of waste at a time. Some
    batches include cleaner waste, such as wood and cardboard,
    while others include waste, such as sewage, that generates
    large quantities of SO2 and other pollutants. Moreover,
    existing SRIs cannot use certain “end-of-stack” control
    technologies like wet scrubbers due to the Alaskan climate.
    The Industry Petitioners thus contend that emissions from
    SRIs are more closely tied to waste input than are emissions
    from other types of incinerators. This difference, they assert,
    required the EPA to take into account, when determining
    which SRI units were best performing for MACT floor
    purposes, the kind of waste an SRI unit was burning at the
    time of testing. Because the Agency did not do so, the
    59
    Industry Petitioners contend the MACT standards for SRIs are
    arbitrary and capricious. We disagree.
    To support their challenge, the Industry Petitioners
    advance two arguments, neither of which has merit.
    Petitioners first point to section 7429(a)(3), which directs the
    EPA to base emission standards on “methods and
    technologies for removal or destruction of pollutants before,
    during, or after combustion.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(3).
    According to the Industry Petitioners, this language requires
    the EPA to identify best performing units for MACT purposes
    by considering which units are best at removing or destroying
    pollutants. The Industry Petitioners assert that the Agency did
    not do this. Instead, they contend, the EPA set standards
    without regard to whether that unit happened to be burning
    cleaner waste. And, according to the Industry Petitioners,
    remote incinerators in Alaska cannot control their waste
    inputs because the core purpose of SRIs is to burn waste that
    is impracticably far from municipal landfills. The fact that
    emissions levels varied dramatically during test runs for the
    SRI units, they claim, is thus the result of random variance in
    the type of waste the unit was combusting, rather than any
    “method” or “technology” aimed at “removing” or
    “destroying” pollutants.
    The EPA responds that the approach it adopted for SRIs
    complies with section 7429(a)(3) because “waste
    segregation”—that is, diverting dirtier waste to landfills and
    burning only cleaner waste—is a “method . . . for removal . . .
    of pollutants before . . . combustion.”      See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(3). In fact, during notice and comment, the EPA
    estimated that many SRIs would choose to comply with the
    MACT standards by segregating their waste instead of by
    installing expensive control technologies. See Jones Mem.
    60
    The Agency also determined that waste segregation was
    possible for SRIs because their waste often contained
    materials that could be recycled. 
    Id.
     Finally, the Agency
    factored in any additional variance in emissions from these
    units by calculating the MACT floors according to the UPL
    formula described at supra §§ I.B.1.a, IV.C. For these
    reasons, the Agency contends, it did not need to consider
    further any variation in emissions that might be caused by
    differences in waste inputs for SRIs.
    The EPA has the better argument, based on both text and
    precedent. Textually, waste segregation plainly can be a
    “method[]” for “removal” of pollutants “before” combustion.
    See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(3). Accordingly, the EPA, when
    setting MACT floors, could not have looked solely to
    technologies used to reduce emissions during combustion.
    Accord Sierra Club v. EPA (Sierra Club II), 
    479 F.3d 875
    ,
    883 (D.C. Cir. 2007) (per curiam). Instead, the plain
    language of section 7429(a)(3) requires the Agency to
    consider whether emission reductions can be achieved by
    non-combustion-related controls such as using cleaner fuels
    or waste inputs. Accord 
    id.
     The statute supports the approach
    that the Agency took here.
    Our holding in Sierra Club II confirms that our
    conclusion is correct.      In that case, the EPA had
    acknowledged that kilns emitted lower levels of pollutants
    when burning cleaner clay but nevertheless based MACT
    standards only on the emission reductions achieved by control
    technology during the combustion process. 
    Id. at 882
    . The
    Agency explained that clean clay existed only in certain areas
    and that transportation of the clay over long distances was
    impractical. 
    Id.
     The EPA therefore considered only those
    emission reductions that were attributable to “deliberate steps
    61
    kiln operators [took] to reduce emissions rather than to the
    ‘happenstance’ of being located near cleaner clay.” 
    Id. at 883
    . But we rejected that approach, finding that “the Clean
    Air Act requires neither an intentional action nor a deliberate
    strategy to reduce emissions.” 
    Id.
     Instead, where “non-
    technology factors” affect emission levels, we held the EPA
    must consider those effects when setting MACT floors. 
    Id.
    Applying that same reasoning, the EPA acted reasonably
    when it decided to consider the emissions reduction that could
    be achieved by waste segregation in SRI units before
    combustion.      This is true even if an element of
    “happenstance” plays into an SRI unit’s ability to segregate
    its waste. And, had the EPA instead determined that the best
    performers were those SRI units that most effectively reduced
    pollutants only during combustion, as the Industry Petitioners
    suggest, the resulting MACT standards may have run afoul of
    our holding in Sierra Club II. We cannot, as a result, find the
    Agency’s choice to avoid that outcome unreasonable.
    The Industry Petitioners’ second argument also comes up
    short. According to Petitioners, the EPA selected the best
    performers for SRIs merely because those units happened to
    be burning batches of cleaner waste at the time of the
    emissions test. They claim this happenstance resulted in test
    data that did not reasonably estimate the typical performance
    of the units, and thus misidentified the best performers. See
    Cement Kiln, 
    255 F.3d at 862
     (finding that although the EPA
    has authority to estimate which units perform best, its
    methodology must “provide[] an accurate picture of the
    relevant sources’ actual performance”). Petitioners further
    argue that the Agency’s use of the UPL method to account for
    variability did not fix this problem because the EPA applies
    that method only after identifying the best performers.
    62
    If the record supported this argument, it might well be
    persuasive; in NACWA, we accepted a similar contention that
    the EPA’s dataset for determining MACT floors must fairly
    represent a unit’s typical performance. See 734 F.3d at 1146.
    But the record here does not support the Industry Petitioners’
    position. None of the evidence on which Petitioners rely can
    bear the weight they would have us place on it.
    First, Petitioners cite evidence indicating that XTO
    Energy, which operates the incinerator that the EPA deemed
    the best performer for SO2, was burning low-sulfur “waste
    wood, cardboard, and oily waste” during the relevant test
    runs. See ConocoPhillips Co., Comment on EPA’s Proposed
    National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants,
    EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0119 (Feb. 12, 2012) (No. 11-1125 J.A.
    1036). But the record does not show that the resulting test
    data were unrepresentative of XTO’s typical performance
    because the record says nothing about what XTO typically
    burns. Id.
    Second, Petitioners note that Drift River, the unit the
    EPA deemed the worst performer for SO2, had emissions
    results similar to XTO Energy’s when burning low-sulfur
    waste, but results over 1,000 times higher when burning high-
    sulfur waste. See id. (No. 11-1125 J.A. 1032-33). But again,
    the record does not say anything about the type of waste Drift
    River typically burns or its sulfur content; it merely
    demonstrates that the unit’s test results varied greatly from
    one run to the next. See id.
    Third, Petitioners point to additional test data they
    provided for the Kuparuk unit, a source that met the EPA’s
    MACT standards for NOx. See id. (No. 11-1125 J.A. 1017,
    1027-28). They claim this data shows that the Kuparuk unit
    63
    “consistently” emits NOx levels exceeding that standard when
    burning sewage sludge. Id. This claim is both factually
    untrue—as the data reveals exceedances on only one day—
    and says nothing about whether the test data that the EPA
    used was representative of Kuparuk’s typical performance.
    Id.
    Instead, the record supports the EPA’s assertion that it
    gave Petitioners “multiple opportunities” to present data on
    the variability of waste streams for SRIs, but Petitioners never
    provided a reasonable empirical basis upon which the Agency
    could adjust the MACT standards due to this variability. The
    Industry Petitioners have thus not met their burden to show
    that the EPA’s test data was unrepresentative of SRI units’
    actual or typical performance.
    In sum, no record evidence suggests that the current SRI
    emission standards are not achievable.           The Industry
    Petitioners instead offer only general statements about the
    “small batch” nature of SRIs and the difficulty of using waste
    segregation or other controls in remote locations. These
    factors alone do not call into question the EPA’s assertion that
    controls such as waste segregation and technology upgrades
    are a feasible means of achieving compliance with the MACT
    floors that it established. See 2011 CISWI Rule, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 15,730 (explaining that the MACT floors will require SRIs
    to employ “the best demonstrated technologies that are
    technologically feasible at these facilities,” such as
    afterburners and waste segregation, and noting that such
    controls “are sufficient to meet the MACT floor limits”). As
    a result, the EPA’s action here was reasonable; the Agency
    did not need to account further for waste stream variance in
    setting MACT floor standards for these SRI units.
    64
    F. CARBON MONOXIDE AS A SURROGATE
    In setting MACT standards for major boilers, the EPA
    used carbon monoxide (CO) as a surrogate for several of the
    HAPs that the Agency was required to regulate. A surrogate
    is another chemical that stands in as a proxy for the regulated
    HAP when the EPA sets numeric emission standards. The
    EPA regulates the surrogate in order to regulate the HAP,
    sometimes because the HAP itself is too difficult to measure.
    We have previously approved the use of surrogates where
    the EPA’s choice of a surrogate for the HAP is “reasonable.”
    See, e.g., Nat’l Lime Ass’n, 
    233 F.3d at 637
    . Here, the
    Industry Petitioners claim the EPA’s use of CO as a surrogate
    was not reasonable for a particular type of emissions—
    organic HAP emissions from coal-fired boilers—for two
    reasons. First, the EPA based the MACT standards on
    datasets that contained numerous “non-detects” for these
    organic HAPs. Second, the Agency failed to explain why it
    used CO as a surrogate for major boilers, but used work-
    practice standards to regulate similar emissions from other
    types of boilers in another rule. We find no merit in either
    argument and, accordingly, deny this challenge.
    The Industry Petitioners base their first argument on a
    deficiency in the EPA’s dataset for coal-fired boilers’
    emissions—i.e., the dataset contained numerous “non-detects”
    for organic HAP emissions. A test result is considered a
    “non-detect” when emissions testing returns a value below
    that which the test methods are capable of detecting.
    According to the Industry Petitioners, multiple non-detects in
    a dataset demonstrate that it is “not feasible” to set a numeric
    emission standard for the affected HAP. As a result, they
    argue, the EPA should have set work-practice standards for
    65
    these HAPs under section 7412(h)(2), which permits the EPA
    to set such standards when it is “not feasible” to set a numeric
    emission standard. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (h)(2).
    This argument fails because Petitioners have not
    explained how the non-detects here made setting numeric
    emissions “not feasible,” as that term is defined in the CAA.
    The CAA expresses a clear preference for MACT emission
    standards and limits the EPA’s ability to fashion more flexible
    work-practice standards.        Compare 
    id.
     § 7412(d)(3)
    (providing that emission standards “shall not be less
    stringent” than the MACT floor), with id. § 7412(h)(1)
    (permitting work-practice standards only if MACT standards
    are “not feasible”). To set a work-practice standard for these
    emissions, in fact, the EPA would need to find that it is
    infeasible to set a numeric standard for a particular HAP. Id.
    § 7412(h)(1). And, as relevant here, the statute defines setting
    a numeric standard as “not feasible” where “the application of
    measurement methodology to a particular class of sources is
    not practicable due to technological and economic
    limitations.” Id. § 7412(h)(2)(B).
    This is a high bar and Petitioners have not demonstrated
    that the non-detects they have identified meet it. During
    notice and comment, the Agency reasonably explained that
    non-detects are present in many of its datasets because they
    are inherent to the imprecision associated with measuring
    boiler emissions. See, e.g., 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,623. The EPA’s scientific conclusion that its data
    was nevertheless sufficient to set numeric standards receives
    an “extreme degree of deference.” Kennecott Greens Creek
    Mining Co. v. Mine Safety & Health Admin., 
    476 F.3d 946
    ,
    954-55 (D.C. Cir. 2007) (quotations omitted). And the
    Industry Petitioners never explain here why the particular
    66
    level of non-detects found in this dataset nevertheless made a
    numeric standard infeasible.           Although the Industry
    Petitioners point to several comments asserting that no coal-
    fired boiler could meet the current numeric standards in all
    HAP categories, these general comments say nothing about
    the relevant question under the statute: whether it was feasible
    to establish numeric standards for organic HAP emissions in
    light of the non-detects in the coal-fired boiler datasets.
    We also reject the Industry Petitioners’ second argument
    that the EPA needed to explain why it established work-
    practice standards for other types of boilers in the unrelated
    “Utility MATS” rule. We take an “every tub on its own
    bottom” approach to the EPA’s setting of emission standards
    pursuant to the CAA. Sierra Club I, 
    353 F.3d at 986
    . The
    adequacy of the underlying justification offered by the
    Agency is what matters in an arbitrary-and-capricious
    review—not what the Agency did on a different record
    concerning a different industry. 
    Id.
     As a result, we cannot
    find that it was unreasonable for the EPA to use CO as a
    surrogate in setting numeric standards for coal-fired boilers on
    this basis. Nor can we find that the EPA was required on
    reconsideration to explain the discrepancy between its
    approach to organic HAP emissions in these two rules, as
    Petitioners assert. See 
    id. at 987
     (“EPA could have noted
    where the bases for its decision in this case differed from
    those with respect to other decisions in other cases, as was
    done in the EPA’s brief to this court . . . but such explanations
    are not required given the different contexts of the various
    rulemakings.”).
    67
    G. HEALTH-BASED EMISSIONS LIMITATION FOR HCL
    In the Major Boiler Rule, the EPA chose not to exercise
    its discretion to create more lenient emission standards for
    hydrogen chloride (HCl) based on health. The Industry
    Petitioners challenge this decision as arbitrary and capricious
    because, they claim, the Agency considered impermissible
    factors in reaching the decision and departed from its previous
    position without adequate justification. We disagree and hold
    the EPA reasonably chose not to establish a health-based
    emissions limitation for HCl.
    The EPA generally must establish emission standards for
    all listed pollutants emitted from a source category based on
    what the best performing similar sources have achieved, i.e.,
    the MACT floor. The Agency, however, may consider
    adopting alternative health-based emission standards—which
    are more lenient—for pollutants with an established health
    threshold. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(4). The statutory
    language permitting these alternative standards is
    discretionary, providing that “[w]ith respect to pollutants for
    which a health threshold has been established, the
    Administrator may consider such threshold level, with an
    ample margin of safety, when establishing emission standards
    under this subsection.” 
    Id.
     (emphasis added). But, even if the
    EPA considers, in its discretion, a health-based emission
    standard, the statutory text nowhere requires that the EPA
    adopt a more lenient standard than the MACT floor. This
    provision thus allows, but does not require, the EPA to adopt
    a standard more lenient than the MACT floor, subject to two
    critical restrictions: the Agency must determine (1) that there
    is an established health threshold, and (2) that the established
    threshold would provide “an ample margin of safety.”
    68
    Using this authority, the EPA considered and adopted
    health-based emission standards for HCl in an earlier
    rulemaking for major boilers. See 2004 Boilers Rule, 69 Fed.
    Reg. at 55,240-41. At the time, the Agency based its decision
    on three key findings: a health threshold was established for
    HCl, adverse health effects were unlikely at emissions below
    that level, and low HCl emissions from major source boilers
    made HCl a “particularly well-suited” candidate for more
    lenient standards. Id. at 55,241. The EPA also said, however,
    that it was not embracing a general policy for HCl, but would
    instead “undertake in each individual rule to determine
    whether it is appropriate to exercise [the Agency’s]
    discretion” to adopt such standards. Id. We later vacated that
    rule without considering the merits of the EPA’s HCl
    decision. See NRDC I, 
    489 F.3d 1250
    .
    The EPA again chose to consider a health-based standard
    for HCl in the current rulemaking, but this time declined to set
    such a standard. 2010 Major Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at
    32,030. The EPA explained that it continued to interpret its
    authority under section 7412(d)(4) to require that it find a
    health threshold exists, with an ample margin of safety, before
    using its discretion to depart from an established MACT floor.
    Id. The Agency reasoned further that, even if it made a
    finding that a health threshold exists, the discretionary nature
    of the authority allowed it to weigh additional factors when
    choosing whether to adopt the more lenient health-based
    standard. Id. Those factors included: the potential for
    cumulative adverse health effects due to concurrent exposure
    to other HAPs or emissions from other nearby sources;
    potential impacts of increased emissions on ecosystems; and
    reductions in emissions of other pollutants, also known as
    “co-benefits,” achieved through enforcement of the HCl
    MACT floor. Id. at 32,030-31.
    69
    Applying this interpretation, the EPA suggested in its
    proposed rule that a health-based standard for HCl might not
    be appropriate because these additional health and
    environmental considerations cautioned against a more lenient
    emission standard. Id. at 32,031. The Agency acknowledged,
    in particular, that its decision in the 2004 rule was based on
    data that considered only the chronic respiratory effects of
    HCl exposure. Id. While affirming the validity of those
    findings, the EPA explained that those chronic impact studies
    did not consider the additional variables it had now identified,
    nor did it consider the potential acute or carcinogenic effects
    that might be caused by HCl exposure. Id. And, because of
    these potential (though unproven) risks, the Agency resolved
    that it currently lacked sufficient information to establish an
    HCl emission standard that would protect health with an
    ample margin of safety. Id. It thus requested additional data
    from stakeholders and the regulated community to help
    address its concerns, including information regarding the
    potential cumulative effects of HCl emissions from boilers
    and other nearby sources. Id.
    After receiving numerous comments on the issue, the
    EPA declined to set a health-based standard in the final rule
    for two primary reasons: (1) the comments had not provided
    sufficient data on potential cumulative health and
    environmental effects caused by HCl emissions from boilers
    and other nearby sources; and (2) the comments affirmed the
    potential co-benefits that limiting HCl emissions might have
    in lowering emissions of other HAP and non-HAP pollutants.
    2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,643-44.
    According to the EPA, its consideration of these co-benefits
    was not a regulation of other pollutants; rather, it was simply
    choosing not to ignore the purpose of the CAA—to reduce the
    negative health and environmental effects of HAP
    70
    emissions—when exercising its discretionary authority under
    the Act. Id. at 15,644.
    The Industry Petitioners contend that the EPA’s
    consideration of the broad potential health and environmental
    impacts of HCl rendered the Agency’s decision arbitrary and
    capricious. In particular, they argue that the Agency based its
    decision on two impermissible factors that were not supported
    by the record: (1) the potential cumulative effects of
    emissions from boilers and other nearby sources, and (2) the
    co-benefits of setting a more stringent MACT floor standard
    for HCl. We disagree on both counts.
    The statutory text and purpose of section 7412(d)(4)
    amply support the Agency’s decision to consider potential
    cumulative risks associated with emissions from boilers and
    other nearby sources. Although other CAA provisions require
    the EPA to set emission standards based on the emissions
    from a particular source, section 7412(d)(4)’s plain language
    is not focused on emissions from any particular source.
    Compare 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(3) (instructing the EPA to set
    emission standards for sources at the level achieved in
    practice by the best controlled similar source), with 
    id.
    § 7412(d)(4) (containing no mention of emissions from a
    particular source).      The EPA’s consideration of the
    cumulative impacts from these emissions is also relevant to
    the Agency’s statutory mandate to ensure that a health
    threshold would protect health with an “ample margin of
    safety.” As such, the Agency had discretion to consider the
    potential risks associated with the cumulative emissions of
    boilers and other nearby sources under this provision.
    The EPA was likewise free to consider potential co-
    benefits that might be achieved from enforcing the HCl
    71
    MACT floor. Section 7412(d)(4)’s text does not foreclose the
    Agency from considering co-benefits and doing so is
    consistent with the CAA’s purpose—to reduce the health and
    environmental impacts of hazardous air pollutants. The
    Agency was under no obligation to ignore the CAA’s purpose
    in making a final decision on whether to exercise a
    discretionary authority.
    The Industry Petitioners attempt to refute this
    straightforward conclusion by pointing to “restrictions” in
    another provision, section 7412(d)(2). No. 11-1108 Indus.
    Pet’rs’ Br. 55-56. This provision requires the EPA to
    consider costs, non-air quality health and environmental
    impacts, and energy requirements in setting maximum
    achievable emission standards. Petitioners contend that these
    same “restrictions” must be read into section 7412(d)(4). But,
    even if we assume Petitioners are correct that these factors
    restrict the Agency’s ability to consider other factors under
    section 7412(d)(2), that provision furthers the statute’s
    command to set the strictest possible emission standards
    above what has already been achieved (i.e., the MACT
    floors). Section 7412(d)(4), by contrast, is a permissive
    authority for the EPA to abandon already achieved emission
    standards. We do not read limits on the EPA’s authority to
    set more stringent standards into a provision laying out the
    EPA’s authority to set more lenient standards. If anything,
    the difference between the provisions cuts the other way.
    Section 7412(d)(4) does not specify the factors that
    Petitioners argue for, while section 7412(d)(2) does. This
    difference shows that Congress knew how to provide such
    limits where it found them necessary. We thus find no basis
    to conclude that the EPA could not consider potential
    cumulative effects or co-benefits in rejecting a more lenient
    health-based HCl standard.
    72
    Finally, the Industry Petitioners claim that the EPA’s
    decision was arbitrary because the Agency failed to support
    its reversal from the 2004 rule, in which it set health-based
    emission standards for HCl. Because the EPA changed its
    position, the Petitioners contend that the Agency had to
    present factual support for its decision to disregard the facts
    and circumstances that underlay its prior adoption of a health-
    based HCl standard. See FCC v. Fox Television Stations,
    Inc., 
    556 U.S. 502
    , 516 (2009). The Agency failed to do this,
    Petitioners say, because it relied on a data gap regarding the
    potential cumulative effects of HCl exposure. But this
    argument fares no better than Petitioners’ first.
    At the outset, Petitioners misstate the EPA’s burden to
    justify its change in policy. Although an agency does not
    generally need to provide a more substantial explanation or
    reason for a policy change than for any other action, it must
    do so where “its new policy rests upon factual findings that
    contradict those which underlay its prior policy.” 
    Id. at 515
    .
    In that circumstance, “it is not that further justification is
    demanded by the mere fact of policy change; but that a
    reasoned explanation is needed for disregarding facts and
    circumstances that underlay or were engendered by the prior
    policy.” 
    Id. at 515-16
    . The EPA, therefore, was not required
    to refute the factual underpinnings of its prior policy with new
    factual data. The Agency only needed to provide a reasoned
    explanation for discounting the importance of the facts that it
    had previously relied upon. 
    Id.
    The EPA did so here by explaining that its prior decision
    focused too narrowly on the chronic respiratory effects of HCl
    emissions without considering the broader implications of
    such emissions on health and environmental conditions. See
    2010 Proposed Major Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 32,030-
    73
    31. In so doing, the EPA neither contradicted nor abandoned
    the factual findings it made in its earlier rulemaking. It
    instead acknowledged that those findings were more limited
    than what it now considered necessary to justify the exercise
    of its discretion to set a health-based standard. Id. For
    example, the Agency noted that: (1) little research had been
    done on HCl’s carcinogenicity or on the toxicity of mixtures
    of HCl and other respiratory irritants emitted from boilers;
    and (2) the Agency had no data about peak short-term
    emissions of HCl from major boilers that might create risks of
    acute exposure. Id.
    These enumerated concerns were sufficient to support the
    Agency’s decision not to adopt a health-based standard.
    Section 7412(d)(4) does not require that the EPA present
    affirmative factual data to reject a health-based standard. The
    provision requires just the opposite: in order to impose a
    health-based standard, the Agency must find that a health
    threshold can be set that provides an ample margin of safety.
    The EPA here determined that it could not do so, in part
    because it lacked relevant data like that discussed above.
    2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,643-44. In other
    words, the EPA could not determine that any health threshold
    would provide an ample margin of safety to protect health.
    Without such a finding, the EPA could not invoke its
    discretionary authority under the statute. Id. There was thus
    nothing impermissible in the EPA’s reliance on a lack of data
    in rejecting a more lenient health-based standard. The EPA’s
    decision not to adopt health-based emission standards for HCl
    was not arbitrary and capricious.
    74
    H. EMISSIONS AVERAGING OF MULTIPLE CISWI UNITS
    IN ONE FACILITY
    Certain industry entities urged the EPA to allow facilities
    with more than one CISWI unit to demonstrate MACT
    compliance by showing that the average HAP emissions
    across all units at that location fell under the relevant cap.
    They pointed to the EPA’s allowance of emissions averaging
    in the Major Boilers Rule but the Agency defended its
    disparate treatment because, in its view, “[t]he applicability of
    CISWI is such that each unit is an affected facility.” See 2011
    Proposed CISWI Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    80,463. It subsequently elaborated that it did “not believe [it
    has] the legal authority to allow emissions averaging in
    CISWI or under section [7429] generally because each
    individual unit is an affected facility.” CISWI Rule—
    Responses to Comments, at 195-96. The Industry Petitioners
    challenge the disallowance of facility-wide averaging for
    CISWIs, arguing that “unit” cannot mean “facility” because
    section 7429(g)(1) defines “solid waste incineration unit” as
    “a distinct operating unit of any facility” and therefore the
    EPA’s rule fails Chevron step 1. They also argue the EPA’s
    conflation of “unit” and “facility” is unreasonable, and thus
    violates Chevron step 2, because the EPA has allowed
    emissions averaging in a different section 7429 rule and in a
    number of section 7412 rules.
    Although the Industry Petitioners’ point is well taken—
    the plain terms of the CAA foreclose the EPA’s conflation of
    a CISWI “unit” and “affected facility,” see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (g)(1) (“facility” is comprised of “units”)—we agree
    that the EPA has no statutory authority to allow emissions
    75
    averaging under section 7429.18 Section 7429 requires the
    EPA to regulate emissions from all “solid waste incineration
    units,” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2); see also 
    id.
     § 7429(a)(4), and
    the CAA defines a “solid waste incinerator unit” as “a distinct
    operating unit” of a “facility,” id. § 7429(g)(1) (emphasis
    added). In other words, because the CAA mandates that the
    EPA regulate each “distinct” CISWI unit in a “facility,” the
    EPA cannot allow emissions averaging of all CISWI units in
    a facility. See id.
    For this reason, the Industry Petitioners’ Chevron
    challenge fails, notwithstanding the EPA’s minimal
    explanation set forth in its proposed CISWI Rule. It is
    axiomatic that an agency must “articulate[] an adequate
    explanation for its action,” Int’l Fabricare Inst. v. EPA, 
    972 F.2d 384
    , 389 (D.C. Cir. 1992) (emphasis added); see also
    State Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 48
    , but the EPA’s failure to do so
    here cannot create statutory authority that does not exist. And
    because the EPA has no authority under section 7429 to allow
    emissions averaging of multiple CISWI units in one facility,
    the Petitioners’ Chevron argument does not carry the day.19
    18
    The EPA does have statutory authority under section 7412
    to allow facility-wide emissions averaging in the Major Boilers
    Rule. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (a)(1) (“major source[s]” defined as
    “any stationary source or group of stationary sources located within
    a contiguous area and under common control” (emphasis added));
    see also 
    id.
     § 7411(a)(3) (“stationary source” defined as “any
    building, structure, facility, or installation which emits or may emit
    any air pollutant”).
    19
    The EPA concedes that it once allowed, in a different rule,
    emissions averaging for units subject to section 7429 but has since
    concluded that it does not have the statutory authority to do so.
    Although the Industry Petitioners argue that the Agency arbitrarily
    76
    IV. ENVIRONMENTAL PETITIONERS’
    CHALLENGES
    A. CARBON MONOXIDE AS A SURROGATE
    As explained at supra §§ I.B.1 and III.F, the EPA used
    carbon monoxide (CO) as a surrogate for several non-
    dioxin/furan organic HAPs when the Agency set the MACT
    floors for major boilers. In support of this approach, the EPA
    found that both CO and these HAPs were the products of
    “incomplete combustion.” 2010 Proposed Major Boilers
    Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 32,018. The Agency concluded as a
    result that CO was a reasonable surrogate because:
    (1) minimizing CO emissions would minimize these HAPs;
    (2) methods used for the control of these HAP emissions
    would be the same methods used to control CO emissions
    (i.e., good combustion or using an oxidation catalyst);
    (3) standards limiting CO emissions would result in decreases
    in these HAP emissions; and (4) establishing emission limits
    for individual organic HAPs would be impractical and costly.
    Id. Although several commenters challenged aspects of this
    reasoning, the EPA ultimately stuck with its decision to use
    CO as a surrogate for non-dioxin/furan organic HAP
    emissions, without further explanation, in the final Major
    Boilers Rule. See 2013 Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at
    7,145 (explaining the EPA was denying Sierra Club’s petition
    to reconsider the suitability of CO as a surrogate for non-
    organic HAPs based on the reasoning provided by the Agency
    in the 2010 proposed rule).
    changed its position, the fact that the EPA may have acted outside
    its authority in a rule is not at issue here. “[P]revious statutory
    violations,” of course, “cannot excuse” new ones. New Jersey v.
    EPA, 
    517 F.3d 574
    , 583 (D.C. Cir. 2008).
    77
    The Environmental Petitioners challenge this decision,
    arguing that the EPA has not adequately explained how
    setting emission standards for CO will accomplish what the
    statute plainly requires: that the EPA set emission standards
    for organic HAPs at the average level achieved by the best
    performers with regard to those HAPs. We agree and remand
    to the EPA to adequately explain how CO acts as a reasonable
    surrogate for non-dioxin/furan organic HAPs. We do not,
    however, vacate the current emission standards because we
    conclude that the Agency will likely be able to adequately
    explain its decision on remand and that vacatur would prove
    substantially disruptive.
    The EPA may use a surrogate to regulate HAPs under
    section 7412 where “reasonable.” See, e.g., Nat’l Lime Ass’n,
    
    233 F.3d at 637
    . To be reasonable, the emission standard set
    for the surrogate must reflect what the best source or best 12
    per cent of sources in the relevant subcategory achieved with
    regard to the HAP. See Sierra Club I, 
    353 F.3d at 984
    . This
    requires the surrogate’s emissions to share a close relationship
    with the emissions of the HAP. 
    Id.
     One crucial factor we
    have identified for determining whether that close relationship
    exists is the availability of alternative control technologies.
    See 
    id. at 985
    . These technologies regulate the HAP without
    impacting a surrogate’s emissions, or regulate the surrogate
    without impacting the HAP. 
    Id.
     As we have explained, the
    importance of this factor to our reasonableness analysis “is
    clear: if EPA looks only to [the surrogate], but HAPs are
    reduced [in another] way that does not reduce [the surrogate],
    the best achieving sources, and what they can achieve with
    respect to HAPs, might not be properly identified.” 
    Id.
    In the Major Boilers Rule, the EPA proposed using CO as
    a surrogate because, as relevant here: (1) the lowest possible
    78
    CO emissions resulted in the lowest possible HAP emissions,
    and (2) the same combustion and oxidation control methods
    reduce both types of emissions. See 2010 Proposed Major
    Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 32,018. But, during notice and
    comment, the EPA failed to directly consider and respond to
    several comments that introduced evidence suggesting that
    other control technologies and methods could be effectively
    used to reduce HAP emissions without also impacting CO
    emissions, or vice versa. See, e.g., Inst. of Clean Air Cos.,
    Comments on National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air
    Pollutants for Major Sources, EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058
    (Aug. 23, 2010), at 20-21 (No. 11-1108 J.A. 822-23);
    Responses to Public Comments on EPA’s National Emission
    Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Major Sources,
    vol. 2, EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058 (Feb. 2011) (No. 11-1108
    J.A. 1033, 1035-36, 1049-52). The EPA ultimately decided to
    use CO as a surrogate for all non-dioxin/furan organic HAPs
    in its final rule without ever addressing whether such
    alternative control technologies and methods might be used to
    lower organic HAP emissions further. See 2011 Major
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,654; 2013 Major Boilers
    Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,138. Instead, the Agency responded
    by doubling down on its assertion that both CO and organic
    HAP emissions were the product of poor combustion and, as a
    result, optimal combustion would minimize the emissions of
    both CO and non-dioxin/furan organic HAPs. 2013 Major
    Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,145. But this response was no
    response at all to the substantial concerns raised in the
    comments that other variables might also affect emissions.
    Although we afford an agency’s scientific decision “an
    extreme degree of deference,” see Kennecott Greens, 
    476 F.3d at 954-55
     (quoting Hüls Am., Inc. v. Browner, 
    83 F.3d 445
    , 452 (D.C. Cir. 1996)), we cannot uphold an agency
    79
    decision that does not consider all relevant factors or fails to
    establish a reasonable connection to the facts in the record.
    Cf. Ethyl Corp. v. EPA, 
    51 F.3d 1053
    , 1064 (D.C. Cir. 1995).
    The EPA could not conclude that CO acts as a reasonable
    surrogate in this statutory context without at least considering
    a key factor: whether the best performing boilers might be
    using alternative control technologies and methods that
    reduce organic HAP emissions beyond what they achieve by
    regulating CO alone. See Sierra Club I, 
    353 F.3d at 985
    . We
    therefore reject the EPA’s contention that its reason for using
    CO as a surrogate—that good combustion would minimize
    both CO and non-dioxin/furan organic HAP emissions—was
    alone sufficient to support its decision.
    We recognize that there might be a context where a
    surrogate’s use is reasonable despite the presence of
    alternative control methods or technologies, but the Agency
    does not explain why it did not need to even consider whether
    such methods might further reduce HAPs here. For example,
    if the EPA used a surrogate that was closely correlated to the
    HAP and set surrogacy emission standards at a level that
    would eliminate HAP emissions altogether, the Agency might
    not need to account for alternative control technologies in its
    final rule. In that case, the use of the surrogate would not call
    into question whether the Agency had regulated the HAP as
    required by the statute because, after all, nothing is better than
    eliminating HAP emissions entirely. But the Agency offers
    us no analogous explanation or supportive data here.
    Although it is possible that all of the challenged CO emission
    standards are in fact set at such a level, the Agency has not
    defended the rule on such reasoning. Indeed, the Agency
    failed to consider or even comment directly on this issue,
    including whether certain post-combustion processes might
    increase organic HAP emissions without a corresponding
    80
    increase in CO emissions.      We cannot ignore such an
    oversight in this context.
    We reject, however, the Environmental Petitioners’ other
    argument that combustion-related issues preclude the EPA
    from using CO as a surrogate for non-dioxin/furan organic
    HAPs. The Petitioners contend that the EPA’s decision to use
    CO was arbitrary because record evidence demonstrated a
    breakdown in the correlation between CO and organic HAP
    emissions at CO emission levels below 130 parts per million
    (ppm). But the EPA explained that this apparent breakdown
    was most likely caused by the difficulty of measuring the
    regulated HAP at such extremely low emission levels, rather
    than by a flaw in the correlation between CO and organic
    HAPs. 2013 Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,144-45;
    Memorandum from Eastern Research Group, Inc. to Jim
    Eddinger, EPA, Revised MACT Floor Analysis for the
    Industrial, Commerical, and Institutional Boilers and Process
    Heaters National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air
    Pollutants—Major Source (2012 MACT Floor Memorandum)
    (Aug. 2012), at 11-12 (No. 11-1108 J.A. 1462-63). This is
    precisely the sort of scientific judgment to which we must
    defer and accordingly, we do so on this point. See Kennecott
    Greens, 
    476 F.3d at 954-55
    . The Environmental Petitioners
    fail to provide any reason to believe that organic HAP
    emissions can, in fact, be accurately measured at such low
    levels. And the Agency’s explanation also addresses why the
    EPA discounted record evidence regarding extremely high
    burn temperatures that demonstrated a potential breakdown in
    the CO and organic HAP relationship as HAP emissions
    approached zero.
    Still, the EPA’s failure to address substantial record
    evidence on the potential availability of alternative control
    81
    technologies or methods rendered the Agency’s use of CO as
    a surrogate for certain organic HAPs arbitrary and capricious.
    We thus remand the portion of the Major Boilers Rule
    providing for CO’s use as a surrogate for non-dioxin/furan
    organic HAPs to the Agency for further consideration. We do
    not, however, vacate the current emission standards based on
    CO’s use as a surrogate. We may remand without vacatur
    where there is a likelihood of (1) cure on remand, and (2) a
    substantial disruptive effect that would result from vacatur.
    See Heartland Reg’l Med. Ctr. v. Sebelius, 
    566 F.3d 193
    , 197-
    98 (D.C. Cir. 2009). Here, vacatur would cause substantial
    disruptive effects by removing emission limits for the
    regulated HAPs. And it is likely that the EPA will be able to
    adequately explain its use of CO on remand after properly
    considering the matter. As a result, we decline to vacate the
    current standards in the interim.
    B. EXCLUSION OF CERTAIN UNITS FROM MACT ANALYSIS
    In the Major Boilers Rule, the EPA created subcategories
    based primarily on the fuel combusted. See 2013 Major
    Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,142. To qualify for certain
    subcategories, the EPA required that a source burn a fuel
    mixture comprised of only 10 per cent of the subcategory-
    defining fuel. See, e.g., id. at 7,193 (“Unit designed to burn
    solid fuel subcategory means any boiler . . . that burns . . . at
    least 10 percent solid fuel . . . in combination with liquid fuels
    or gaseous fuels.” (emphasis added)). Notwithstanding the
    low bar for inclusion, we conclude, and discuss at greater
    length below, see infra § IV.J, that the EPA reasonably
    exercised its discretion when it subcategorized boilers this
    way.
    82
    We cannot say the same about the EPA’s exclusion of
    certain high-performing units from its MACT-floor
    calculation. Although the EPA allowed sources that combust
    only 10 per cent of a subcategory-defining fuel to join that
    subcategory, it declined to consider emissions from any
    source that burned less than 90 per cent of the subcategory-
    defining fuel when determining the average emissions level of
    the best performing sources in setting MACT floors for
    existing sources. And when it set a subcategory’s MACT
    floors for new sources, the Agency declined to consider the
    emissions levels from any source that did not burn 100
    per cent of the fuel. This disparate treatment makes a
    difference; several sources excluded from the MACT-floor
    determination were among the best performing sources (or, in
    some cases, the single best performing source) in that fuel-
    based subcategory.
    The CAA, however, demands that source subcategories
    take the bitter with the sweet. Section 7412 mandates,
    without ambiguity, that the EPA set the MACT floor at the
    level achieved by the best performing source, or the average
    of the best performing sources, in a subcategory. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(3)(A), (B). It thus follows that if the EPA
    includes a source in a subcategory, it must take into account
    that source’s emissions levels in setting the MACT floor.
    The Agency, however, claims discretion to omit from
    MACT-floor computation sources it considers dissimilar. In
    support, it cites section 7412(d)(3), which provides that
    MACT standards must be no less stringent than “the best
    controlled similar source, as determined by the [EPA].” 
    Id.
    § 7412(d)(3) (emphases added). Our decision in Sierra Club
    II, 
    479 F.3d 875
    , however, forecloses this argument. In
    Sierra Club II, the EPA set MACT standards for brick and
    83
    ceramic kilns. 
    Id. at 879
    . For some subcategories, the EPA
    based its MACT-floor determination on “the pollution control
    devices used by the second-best performers,” not the best
    performers. 
    Id.
     (emphasis added). Although the EPA argued
    that it “reasonably construe[d] the term ‘best performing’ . . .
    to allow it to consider whether retrofitting kilns with a
    particular pollution control technology is technically
    feasible,” 
    id. at 880
     (alterations in original), we held that the
    EPA could not circumvent the requirement that it base the
    MACT floor “on the emission level actually achieved by the
    best performers (those with the lowest emission levels).” 
    Id.
    at 880-81 (citing Cement Kiln, 
    255 F.3d at 861
    ) (emphasis in
    original). We reach the same conclusion here.
    The EPA tries to distinguish Sierra Club II, arguing that
    the issue in that case “was whether [the] EPA could exclude
    all units using the most-effective emission control technique
    because it might not be applicable to all existing units”;
    however, “[h]ere, [the] EPA is excluding a test result that is
    unrepresentative of typical operations of units in the
    subcategory, and thus is inappropriate to use in establishing
    the MACT floor.” No. 11-1108 EPA Br. 81. But it makes no
    difference whether the EPA exempts from consideration units
    with certain highly effective technology or units with
    impressive test results driven by the fuel combination it
    combusts. Either approach contravenes our holding in Sierra
    Club II that the EPA cannot ignore “the emission level
    actually achieved by the best performers (those with the
    lowest emission levels)” in the subcategory. 
    479 F.3d at 880
    (emphasis omitted). In any event, the EPA has not simply
    excluded aberrant test results; it has excluded an entire class
    of units—those burning less than 90 per cent of the
    subcategory’s fuel—even though every one of those units fits
    84
    the subcategory’s parameters. This is no different from what
    we rejected in Sierra Club II.
    The EPA insists that if a source is “unrepresentative of
    typical operations of units in the subcategory,” it is
    “inappropriate to use [it] in establishing the MACT floor.”
    No. 11-1108 EPA Br. 81. Not so. “The idea is to set limits
    that, as an initial matter, require all sources in a category to at
    least clean up their emissions to the level that their best
    performing peers have shown can be achieved.” Sierra Club
    I, 
    353 F.3d at
    980 (citing 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(3)). For this
    reason, an unusually high-performing source should be
    considered; indeed its performance suggests that a more
    stringent MACT standard is appropriate. Accordingly, we
    vacate the MACT standards for all major boiler subcategories
    that would have been affected had the EPA considered all
    sources included in the subcategories.20
    C. UPPER PREDICTION LIMIT
    Sections 7412 and 7429 create MACT-floor criteria that,
    for our purpose, are materially the same. Compare 42 U.S.C.
    20
    In its brief, the EPA argued that the Environmental
    Petitioners’ challenge was moot either because the challenged
    MACT standards had been remanded for other reasons or because
    inclusion of the allegedly dissimilar sources would not have
    affected the MACT standard. During oral argument, however, it
    conceded that it misunderstood the scope of the Petitioners’
    argument, which argument challenges unremanded MACT
    standards that have in fact been affected by the EPA’s decision to
    omit certain high-performing sources from its MACT-floor
    analysis. See Oral Arg. Recording pt. B at 48:28-49:22. We
    believe that the Environmental Petitioners’ challenge is not moot
    and has not been waived.
    85
    § 7412(d), with id. § 7429(a)(2). In both provisions, the CAA
    mandates that MACT floors have maximum stringency but
    also be continuously achievable. See id. § 7412(d)(2), (k); id.
    § 7429(a)(2); id. § 7602(k). Satisfying the statutory criteria is
    no easy task, especially because no source emits any HAPs at
    a constant level. See Page Mem. 6. Rather, emissions levels
    fluctuate over time and for many reasons. See id. at 3.21 We
    have held, see Mossville Envtl. Action Now v. EPA, 
    370 F.3d 1232
    , 1242 (D.C. Cir. 2004), and recently reaffirmed, see
    NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1133-34, that the EPA can consider this
    variability when setting MACT floors.
    Further complicating the task is the way in which sources
    typically measure emissions. Virtually all of the data the EPA
    collects to set MACT floors come from the three-run stack
    test. Page Mem. 6. The three-run stack test, as the name
    suggests, involves three measurements of the source’s
    emissions taken over a short time period (i.e., no more than a
    few days) with each of the three test “runs” lasting from one
    hour to four hours. Id. at 3. Because the tests provide three
    “snapshots” of a source’s emissions performance, they cannot
    accurately represent the source’s full range of emissions over
    all times and under all conditions. Id. at 3-4. Because stack
    testing typically involves “three separate runs,” however, it
    “will in most cases show some of a particular source’s
    21
    See also Page Mem. 2-3 (“This variability occurs due to a
    number of factors, including measurement variability (both
    sampling and analysis) and short term fluctuations in the emission
    levels that result from short-term changes in fuels, processes,
    combustion conditions, and controls.”).
    86
    variability over the short period of time during which testing
    was conducted.” Id. at 6 (emphasis added).22
    1. NACWA, 
    734 F.3d 1115
     (D.C. Cir. 2013)
    Based on the limitations inherent in stack testing, the
    EPA concluded that it could not set MACT floors based on
    that testing alone. It began using the UPL to account for the
    HAPs-emissions variety that stack-testing data do not reflect.
    See NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1122. The Agency did so in several
    rules promulgated in 2011, including not only the Major
    Boilers Rule and the CISWI Rule but also the Sewage Sludge
    Incinerator Rule addressed in NACWA. See id. In that case,
    the petitioners challenged the EPA’s UPL use, arguing that
    the Agency failed to establish that the UPL fairly represented
    the “average emissions limitation achieved” by the best
    performing sources to set the Sewage Sludge Incinerator
    MACT floors and, accordingly, was “unlawful and arbitrary.”
    Id. at 1130. We agreed in part. See id. at 1119.
    Specifically, we struggled to pin down the EPA’s precise
    interpretation of the phrase “average emissions limitation
    achieved by the best performing 12 percent of units.” Id. at
    1142-43 (quoting 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2)).23 As best we
    could tell, the EPA defended its use of the UPL as follows:
    “[b]ecause the [UPL] represents the value which [the EPA]
    22
    See also Page Mem. 5 (“[E]ven single three run tests, which
    are performed over a short period of time, typically show different
    emissions levels during each individual test run.”).
    23
    See also NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1142 (“[I]t seems EPA has
    adopted yet another interpretation of the phrase ‘average emissions
    limitation achieved by the best performing 12 percent of units.’”
    (emphasis added)).
    87
    can expect the mean (i.e., average) of three future
    observations (3-run average) to fall below, based upon the
    results of the independent sample size from the same
    population, the [UPL] reflects average emissions.” Id. at
    1142 (quoting Standards of Performance for New Stationary
    Sources and Emission Guidelines for Existing Sources:
    Sewage Sludge Incineration Units, 
    76 Fed. Reg. 15,372
    ,
    15,389 (Mar. 21, 2011)) (emphasis added) (some alteration in
    original). In our view, however, “the word ‘average’ . . .
    seems to mean the average emissions limitation that the
    existing population of the best-performing 12 percent of
    incinerators has achieved.” 
    Id.
     (emphases added).
    Despite these doubts, we reasoned that the EPA could
    have “plausibl[y]” concluded that the UPL represents the
    “average emissions limitation achieved” by the best
    performing sources. 
    Id. at 1143
    . That said, we were not
    willing to assume the EPA’s responsibility of “supply[ing] a
    reasoned basis” for its UPL use. 
    Id.
     (quoting Bowman
    Transp., Inc. v. Ark.-Best Freight Sys., Inc., 
    419 U.S. 281
    (1974)). For that reason, we remanded—but did not vacate,
    see 
    id.
     at 1161—the UPL portion of the Sewage Sludge
    Incinerator Rule and ordered the EPA to “clarify how the
    [UPL] represents the average emissions limitation achieved
    by the best performing 12 percent.” 
    Id. at 1143
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted).24
    24
    See also NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1151 (“[W]hile we determine
    that [the] EPA’s use of the [UPL] may be lawful, we are remanding
    this portion of its rulemaking for further explanation on the issue[]
    of how the upper prediction limit represents the average emissions
    limitation achieved . . . .” (internal quotation marks omitted)).
    88
    Because the EPA also used the UPL in the Major Boilers
    Rule and the CISWI Rule, the Agency moved for a limited
    remand of the current petitions so that it could include its
    revised UPL explanation in the administrative records of these
    two regulations.25 See Page Mem. 2. On July 14, 2014, the
    EPA published a fifteen-page memorandum authored by
    Stephen D. Page, the EPA Director of Air Quality Planning
    and Standards (Page Memorandum), in response to NACWA.
    See id. at 1. The EPA’s current explication of the UPL is now
    before us.26
    25
    In NACWA, we had other problems with the EPA’s use of
    the UPL. Specifically, the EPA had explained that “a smaller
    dataset may have greater variability, and thus a higher [UPL].”
    NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1144. We instructed the EPA not only to
    explain its use of the UPL in general but also to “explain why the
    [UPL] could still be considered accurate given a small dataset” in
    particular. Id. at 1144-45 (emphasis added). In its remand motion,
    the EPA represented that it could “adequately explain why [its] use
    of the UPL in general is consistent with Clean Air Act requirements
    through a remand of the record for a limited time” but that “the
    question of whether the UPL is an appropriate statistical method for
    small data sets requires more analysis . . . [along with] additional
    notice and comment rulemaking.” No. 11-1108 Mot. for Remand
    9, 13 (Feb. 28, 2014). We agreed and, for this reason, the only
    issue we decide today is whether the EPA carried its burden of
    establishing, as a general matter, that the UPL reasonably estimates
    the average emissions level achieved by the best performing source
    or sources to set MACT floors.
    26
    The Environmental Petitioners urge us to ignore the Page
    Memorandum, insisting that it “provide[s] a series of new
    interpretations and assertions that, rather than ‘explaining’ the prior
    record, instead contradict and revise the agency’s earlier position,”
    in contravention of NACWA and the scope of the remand the
    Agency requested regarding the Major Boilers Rule and the CISWI
    89
    2. The Page Memorandum
    The Page Memorandum recognized our “concern about
    the interpretation [we] believed [the] EPA was taking” of the
    word “average.” Page Mem. 3. It clarified that the Agency
    “does not interpret the term ‘average’” to mean “the average
    of a future 3-run compliance test.” Id. (emphasis added)
    (quoting NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1143). Rather, it explained that
    the “EPA interprets the average to mean the average
    emissions over time,” based not only on the “average of all
    emissions test data from the best performing source or
    sources” but also on “information regarding the variability of
    emissions.” Id. (emphasis added).
    In the EPA’s judgment, “variability is a key factor in
    establishing” MACT standards because “[e]ach MACT
    standard is based on limited data from sources whose
    emissions are expected to vary over their long term
    Rule. No. 11-1108 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 41. But our NACWA decision
    did not, as the Petitioners would have it, require the EPA to adopt
    our belief that the Agency construed “average” to mean “the
    average of a future 3-run compliance test.” See NACWA, 734 F.3d
    at 1143. Rather, we asked the EPA to clarify how, in its view, the
    UPL “represents the ‘average emissions limitation achieved by the
    best performing 12 percent.’” Id. (emphasis added). Nor do we
    think that the EPA altered its initial basis for using the UPL, which
    the EPA has consistently held out as “a statistical formula designed
    to estimate a MACT floor level that is equivalent to the average of
    the best performing sources based on future compliance tests.”
    2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,630 (emphasis added).
    What the EPA failed to do before NACWA was to explain how the
    UPL functions and why it is a reasonable way to calculate
    “average” emissions levels. The Page Memorandum does precisely
    that.
    90
    performance.” Id. Specifically, “[t]he available emissions
    data are generally in the form of short term, three-run stack
    tests, with each test run lasting for between 1 and 4 hours.”
    Id. For this reason, the EPA concluded that it did not have
    information “encompass[ing] the emissions performance of a
    source over time.” Id. (emphasis added). And because the
    “EPA interprets ‘emissions performance’ . . . to mean the
    emissions of a source over the long term, rather than just
    during a short-term stack test,” the EPA found it necessary to
    “appl[y] a methodology that predicts the actual emissions
    levels the source is achieving at times other than when stack
    testing was conducted.” Id. at 3-4 (emphases added).
    The UPL is the methodology the EPA selected to account
    for these limitations. Id. at 4. “[A] value derived from widely
    accepted and commonly used statistical principles,” the UPL
    “represents the upper end of a prediction interval.” Id. In
    layman’s terms, the UPL uses an equation that considers
    (1) the average of the best performing source or sources’
    stack-test results (i.e., the mean); (2) the pattern the stack-test
    results create (i.e., the distribution); (3) the variability in the
    best performing source or sources’ stack-test results (i.e., the
    variance); and (4) the total number of stack tests conducted
    for the best performing source or sources (i.e., the sample
    size). Id. at 4-5.
    The UPL, however, cannot demonstrate with absolute
    certainty the average emissions levels achieved by the best
    performing sources at all times (indeed, certainty is
    impossible without continuous monitoring). See id. Instead,
    the UPL equation produces a range of values that is expected,
    given the variance in the relevant stack-test data, to
    encompass the average emissions levels achieved by the best
    performing sources a specified percentage of the time. Id. at
    91
    4. To establish the MACT floor, the EPA calibrated the UPL
    equation to produce a range in which the average emissions
    levels of the best performing source or sources would be
    expected to fall 99 per cent of the time, which is referred to as
    a 99 per cent confidence interval. Id. Once the EPA had this
    range, it set the MACT floor at the top level of that range—
    hence, the “upper” in “upper prediction limit”—to arrive at a
    figure that, 99 out of 100 times, it expected the average
    emissions levels of the best performing sources to “achieve.”
    Id. Or, in the EPA’s words, “the 99 percent UPL is the level
    of emissions that” the EPA is “99 percent confident is
    achieved by the average source represented in a dataset over a
    long-term period based on its previous, measured
    performance history as reflected in short term stack-test data.”
    Id.
    One of the equations the EPA used to calculate the UPL
    is as follows:27
    27
    The EPA used “one of several equations” to calculate the
    UPL depending on “certain characteristics of [the] dataset,”
    including the distribution of data within the dataset. Page Mem. 4.
    Here, we set out the equation the EPA used for a dataset with a
    “normal distribution.” Id. at 10. For our review, we need not
    recount the other, somewhat more complicated equations the EPA
    used in determining the UPL for datasets with, e.g., a “lognormal
    distribution.” See id. (“Even though they differ due to separate
    mathematical properties associated with each distribution, the UPL
    equations share a common format . . . .”); see generally id. at 11
    (describing lognormal distribution equation).
    92
    NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1139. In this equation:
       “x̄ ” is the mean;
       “t(0.99, n-1)” is a value called the “t-statistic,” the
    statistical tool used to set the confidence interval
    (here, 99 per cent);
       “n” is the sample size;
       “m” is the number of stack tests that were run to
    calculate the mean (“x̄ ”); because most stack tests
    involve 3 “runs,” m usually equals 3;
       “s” represents the “standard deviation.”
    See id.; see also Page Mem. 10-11.
    3. Instant Challenges to UPL
    After the EPA issued the Page Memorandum, the
    Environmental Petitioners renewed their argument that the
    UPL represents neither (1) the “average” emissions limit of
    the best performing source or sources in a subcategory, nor
    (2) the emissions levels “achieved” by the best performing
    sources in a subcategory. We believe that the EPA has
    carried its burden of demonstrating that the UPL “reflect[s] a
    reasonable estimate of the emissions achieved in practice by
    93
    the best performing sources.” Cement Kiln, 
    255 F.3d at
    871-
    72 (internal quotation marks omitted); see also NACWA, 734
    F.3d at 1148 (“[H]aving decided to account for variability,
    and having decided to estimate that variability, EPA bears the
    burden of demonstrating with substantial evidence that its
    estimate is reasonable.”).
    Our conclusion is driven, in large part, by the deference
    we owe the EPA when it determines how best to meet the
    technical challenges in its area of expertise. Indeed, the EPA
    “typically has wide latitude in determining the extent of data-
    gathering necessary to solve a problem” and, for that reason,
    we have “accorded Chevron deference to [its] interpretation
    of [the CAA] as allowing it to estimate MACT floors.”
    NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1131. Moreover, “the requirement that
    the existing unit floors not be less stringent than the average
    emissions limitation achieved by the best performing 12
    percent of units does not, on its own, dictate how the
    performance of the best units is to be calculated,” id. (internal
    quotation marks omitted)—“[f]loors need not be perfect
    mirrors of the best-performers’ emissions,” Cement Kiln, 
    255 F.3d at 871
    . So long as the EPA “demonstrate[s] with
    substantial evidence—not mere assertions”—that the UPL
    “allows a reasonable inference as to the performance of the
    top 12 percent of units,” NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1131
    (quotations omitted) (emphasis added), the EPA has
    conducted reasoned decision making.
    The Agency has done so here. The Page Memorandum
    explains the limitations of stack-test data—i.e., the
    “snapshots” cannot reflect the best performing source’s or
    sources’ average emissions levels at all times and under all
    operating conditions. Page Mem. 6. The Page Memorandum
    also explains that the Agency chose the UPL as a tool
    94
    “derived from widely accepted and commonly used statistical
    principles,” id. at 4, that “reasonably account[s] for variability
    in the emissions of . . . sources,” id. at 2. Finally, the Page
    Memorandum plugs the analytical gap we identified in
    NACWA—it thoroughly explains how and why the UPL
    accounts for the variance and therefore how and why it
    reasonably represents the emissions level “achieved by the
    average source” or sources. Id. at 3-5. In so doing, the EPA
    has “clarif[ied],” to our satisfaction, “how the upper
    prediction limit represents the average emissions limitation
    achieved.” NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1143 (internal quotation
    marks omitted).
    The Environmental Petitioners’ arguments to the contrary
    are unavailing. Their primary objection is that the UPL
    cannot reasonably estimate the “average” emissions level
    achieved by the best performing source or sources because the
    UPL represents “a level [the] EPA expects any future
    compliance test by any [source] in the top 12 percent to fall
    below.” No. 11-1108 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 35 (emphases added)
    (internal quotation marks omitted).28        But the Page
    Memorandum counters the Environmental Petitioners’
    mistaken understanding of what the UPL represents.29
    According to the EPA, “the UPL does not represent the worst
    emissions performance of the best performing units at any
    28
    See also No. 11-1108 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Reply Br. 15 (“It is, as
    its name indicates, an upper limit—the emissions limitation that
    every member of the best-performing 12 percent will fall
    below . . . .” (emphasis in original) (quotation marks omitted)).
    29
    The Environmental Petitioners’ argument rests, at least in
    part, on their contention that we should not consider the Page
    Memorandum at all. We decline their invitation to ignore the
    explanation we ordered the EPA to provide.
    95
    time.” Page Mem. 4 (emphasis in original).30 It is instead
    “the average level expected to have been achieved over time”
    by the best performing source or sources. Id. (emphasis in
    original). “In other words, the 99 percent UPL is the level of
    emissions that [the EPA is] 99 percent confident is achieved
    by the average source . . . over a long-term period based on
    its previous, measured performance history as reflected in
    short term stack test data.” Id. (emphasis added).
    Next, the Environmental Petitioners criticize the Page
    Memorandum’s explanation that the UPL represents the long-
    term average emissions levels achieved because “the first
    element of the UPL equation is the average of the short-term
    emissions test data from the best-performing sources.” Id. In
    their view, the UPL is no different from “saying that, over
    time, the average of 1, 2, and 3 = 2 + 500 because the first
    element in the equation (2) is the average of 1, 2, and 3.” No.
    11-1108 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 48. But the UPL does not simply
    tack an arbitrary increase on top of the stack-test average of
    the best performing sources. Rather, the UPL “allows [the]
    EPA to use emissions test data and the data characteristics,”
    which include “the distribution and sample size, along with
    the intrinsic variability associated with those data,” to
    estimate “an emissions limit based on a specified level of
    confidence such that an average best performing existing
    30
    See also Page Mem. 5 (It is “generally . . . reasonable to
    establish a [MACT floor] standard that all the best performing 12
    percent of existing sources can meet without any modification
    because the statute requires the Agency to establish the standard at
    the average level of performance of the best 12 percent of sources.”
    (emphasis in original)); id. at 14 (“[T]he MACT floor represents the
    average emission level achieved by the best performing sources,
    not the worst emission level achieved by those sources.” (emphases
    in original)).
    96
    source would not be expected to exceed the limit a specified
    number of times.” Page Mem. 6 (emphases added). In other
    words, the UPL does not simply add an arbitrarily chosen
    value but instead turns entirely on the features inherent in the
    stack-test data and how those features reflect the natural
    variance in emissions experienced by the best performing
    sources over time. See id. at 4 (“[T]he MACT floor
    calculation takes into account the inherent variability in
    emissions performance to more accurately reflect the range of
    the best performing sources’ emissions over time.” (emphasis
    added)).31     Thus, as the Page Memorandum amply
    demonstrates, see id., the EPA’s use of the UPL is not
    arbitrary.
    The Environmental Petitioners also attack the results
    produced by the UPL. They provide a series of charts that, in
    their view, demonstrate that the UPL sets MACT floors far
    too high to comport with the CAA’s mandate that floors
    represent “the maximum degree of reduction in emissions.”
    See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2). True, some of the charts show
    that the EPA has set a MACT floor above the highest
    emissions level recorded by the best performing sources’
    stack testing. See No. 11-1108 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 14-15; No.
    11-1108 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Reply Br. 23. But this does not mean
    that the UPL is an arbitrary “average” proxy—for at least two
    reasons.
    31
    See also Page Mem. 6-7 (“[T]he UPL equation that is used
    to account for variability and [to] calculate the MACT floor
    standard depends on the distribution of the data.”); 
    id. at 11
     (“The
    UPL . . . is directly related to the confidence level and to the
    variance, meaning that as either of these values go up or down, so
    does the UPL value.”).
    97
    First, the charts selectively included are generated from
    data sets with considerable variance between the highest
    recorded stack test and the lowest. Unsurprisingly, if a
    handful of “snapshots” in a data set demonstrate that
    emissions levels experience high spikes and low plummets at
    discrete times, it is more likely that the average emissions
    level achieved by the best performing sources at all times
    might be high. This is because a data set with high variability
    will produce a higher UPL than a data set with low variability,
    even if the two sets share the same average. In other words,
    the UPL takes large variance into account and therefore
    naturally goes higher to arrive at the 99 per cent certainty the
    EPA thinks is appropriate.32 Second, where the UPL
    suggested a MACT floor higher than the results of the stack
    tests, it often did so by insubstantial amounts. Indeed, for at
    least one chart, “the limit is a mere 4 millionths of a pound per
    million Btu above the emissions test results of best
    performers, an unalarming amount given that the
    methodology is supposed to account for variable results.”
    No. 11-1108 Indus. Intervenors’ Br. 10 (emphases in
    original). For these reasons, the Environmental Petitioners
    have not convinced us that the EPA failed to satisfy the
    32
    The EPA “selected the 99 percent level in order to provide
    reasonable assurance that the limit can be met at all times by a
    source with emissions at the average level achieved by the best
    performing source or sources.” Page Mem. 10. The Environmental
    Petitioners have not challenged the EPA’s choice of a 99 per cent
    confidence level, as opposed to a lower level of certainty, and we
    express no opinion on that choice. And we reiterate that the more
    specific concerns we had with the UPL when we decided
    NACWA—in particular, the UPL’s accuracy “given a small
    dataset”—are not before us. 734 F.3d at 1144-45.
    98
    “minimal standard[] of rationality” that we require. Ethyl
    Corp. v. EPA, 
    541 F.2d 1
    , 36 (D.C. Cir. 1976) (en banc).
    Finally, the Environmental Petitioners insist that “[t]he
    UPL predicts a level that hypothetical future tests will fall
    below, rather than estimating what boilers actually achieved,”
    in contravention of the requirement that MACT floors “reflect
    what the best-performing sources achieved.” No. 11-1108
    Envtl. Pet’rs’ Reply Br. 24 (internal quotation marks omitted).
    But the Environmental Petitioners ignore the Page
    Memorandum’s explanation that, because the UPL is not
    time-dependent, it “not only is a prediction of the emissions
    performance of those sources in tests conducted in the future,
    but is also an indication of the range of current average
    emissions performance of those units.” Page Mem. 3;33 see
    also No. 11-1108 Indus. Intervenors’ Br. 9 (“Because this
    statistical method is not time-dependent, it is equally valid for
    predicting past performance (i.e., the range of emissions
    levels expected to have been experienced in the past by the
    best performers during periods when actual emissions testing
    was not underway) and future performance.”).
    We believe that the UPL “reflect[s] a reasonable estimate
    of the emissions achieved in practice by the best-performing
    sources,” Cement Kiln, 
    255 F.3d at 871-72
     (internal quotation
    marks omitted), and, accordingly, we reject the
    Environmental Petitioners’ challenge to it.
    33
    See also Page Mem. 4 (“[T]he 99 percent UPL is the
    emissions level that the source would be predicted to be below 99
    out of 100 performance tests, including emissions tests conducted
    in the past, present, and future.”); id. at 10 (“The confidence level,
    in this case 99 percent, is the percentage of measurements (past,
    present, and future) that are predicted to fall at or below the UPL
    value.”).
    99
    D. BEYOND-THE-FLOOR STANDARDS FOR CISWI UNITS
    The EPA declined to set beyond-the-floor standards for
    CISWI units. The Environmental Petitioners challenge that
    determination in three primary respects, each of which we
    reject.34
    Section 7429 of the CAA directs the EPA to set MACT
    standards in two steps. It first sets a floor level based on the
    best performing sources. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2). Next, it
    determines “whether a more restrictive standard is
    ‘achievable,’” NRDC III, 749 F.3d at 1057, “taking into
    consideration the cost of achieving such emission reduction,
    and any non-air quality health and environmental impacts and
    34
    Although the EPA does not argue that the court lacks
    jurisdiction to consider this argument, Environmental Petitioners
    raise the issue defensively, contending that they satisfied the CAA’s
    administrative exhaustion provision. We agree. During the
    rulemaking process, the Petitioners comprehensively critiqued the
    EPA’s proposed rationale for rejecting beyond-the-floor standards.
    See, e.g., Natural Resources Defense Council, Comments on
    Standards of Performance for New Stationary Sources and
    Emission Guidelines for Existing Sources, EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-
    0119 (Aug. 23, 2010), at 11-16 (No. 11-1125 J.A. 668-73). Many
    of those comments challenged the EPA’s consideration of costs and
    other factors—the same types of issues Petitioners now ask the
    Panel to resolve. Because the Environmental Petitioners raised the
    relevant issues “with reasonable specificity” during the period for
    public comment, our jurisdiction is not in question. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7607
    (d)(7)(B); see Portland Cement Ass’n v. EPA, 
    665 F.3d 177
    ,
    186 (D.C. Cir. 2011) (“While we certainly require some degree of
    foresight on the part of commenters, we do not require telepathy.
    We should be especially reluctant to require advocates for affected
    industries and groups to anticipate every contingency.”).
    100
    energy requirements,”35 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2). The “EPA
    calls these stricter requirements ‘beyond-the-floor’
    standards.” NRDC III, 749 F.3d at 1057.
    In section 7429, the “Congress gave EPA broad
    discretion in considering whether to go beyond-the-floor.”
    NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1157. The Congress required the EPA
    to consider a variety of factors without telling the EPA how to
    weigh them. That calculus belongs to the EPA’s discretion.
    See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2) (delegating to the EPA
    Administrator the responsibility to “tak[e] into consideration”
    the statutory factors). Against that backdrop, challenges to
    the EPA’s beyond-the-floor determinations “must clear a high
    bar, as we are at our most deferential when an agency is
    ‘making predictions, within its area of special expertise, at the
    frontiers of science.’” NACWA, 734 F.3d at 1156 (quoting
    Husqvarna, 254 F.3d at 199).
    When establishing MACT standards for CISWI, the EPA
    declined to establish beyond-the-floor standards in the
    proposed rule, see 2010 Proposed CISWI Rule, 75 Fed. Reg.
    at 31,956-59, and the final rule, see 2011 CISWI Rule, 76
    Fed. Reg. at 15,729-32. The EPA also declined requests to
    reconsider that decision. See Memorandum from Eastern
    Research Group, Inc., to Amy Hambrick, U.S. Environmental
    Protection Agency, Revised Draft CISWI Reconsideration
    Issues (Dec. 20, 2012), at 22-23 (No. 11-1125 J.A. 1219-20).
    35
    EPA interprets the statutory factor of “cost” to permit
    consideration of cost-effectiveness, NRDC III, 749 F.3d at 1060-61,
    which is often calculated “on [a] per ton of emissions removed
    basis,” Husqvarna AB v. EPA, 
    254 F.3d 195
    , 200 (D.C. Cir. 2001).
    We have previously upheld that interpretation. See, e.g., NRDC III,
    749 F.3d at 1060-61.
    101
    The first challenge targets several instances in which the
    EPA refused to require sources to adopt, as a beyond-the-floor
    measure, controls that most sources would employ to meet the
    MACT floor standard. In each instance, the EPA determined
    that the relative costs outweighed the expected emissions
    gains. In the first such case, the EPA decided not to require
    liquid-fired energy recovery units to install dry sorbent
    injection and fabric filters as a beyond-the-floor measure,
    despite the fact that “four of the six” units would need to
    install those systems to meet the floor standard. 2011 CISWI
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,731. That decision satisfied the
    statute. Had the EPA mandated the control measures, the
    remaining two units would have needed to expend “$1.1
    million per year” to achieve only a small emissions reduction,
    “which translates into an incremental cost-effectiveness of
    about $230,000 per ton” of emission. Id. Nothing in section
    7429(a)(2) requires the Agency to impose a cost so
    disproportionate to the expected emissions gains.
    The Environmental Petitioners take issue with two other
    decisions along these lines. In the first, the EPA declined to
    set beyond-the-floor mercury control measures for kilns,
    citing a cost-effectiveness of roughly $351 million per ton.
    See Memorandum from Eastern Research Group, Inc., to Toni
    Jones, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Final
    Reconsideration Beyond-the-Floor Analysis for CISWI Units
    (Reconsideration Mem.) (Dec. 20, 2012), at ¶ 3.4.2 (No. 11-
    1125 J.A. 1232).        In the second, a $26,000 per-ton
    implementation cost led the Agency not to establish stricter
    carbon monoxide control measures for calciner kilns. See id.
    ¶ 3.4.3.    Energy use—a factor mandated in section
    7429(a)(2)—also entered the equation. With respect to
    calciner kilns, the technology used to reduce carbon
    102
    monoxide would also increase energy requirements, and
    therefore increase energy costs. See id. In each of these
    decisions, the EPA reasonably applied the statutory factors.
    That Petitioners would have weighed the costs differently
    provides no grounds to displace the EPA’s otherwise
    reasonable determination.
    In the second challenge to the decision not to set beyond-
    the-floor standards, the Environmental Petitioners contend the
    Agency arbitrarily failed to set emission levels lower than the
    MACT floor for categories likely to adopt technology capable
    of meeting those lower levels. Specifically, according to the
    Environmental Petitioners, the EPA knew waste-burning kilns
    and energy recovery units would adopt fabric filters that
    “achieve particulate matter emissions levels dramatically
    lower than the floor, but refused to set the standard at that
    lower level.” See No. 11-1125 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 50.
    That is incorrect. The Environmental Petitioners spin this
    yarn based on a line in the proposed rulemaking. There, the
    Agency speculated that kilns and energy recovery units would
    adopt fabric filters to comply with the MACT floor limit, and
    would “likely achieve a level of performance” below the
    floor. 2010 Proposed CISWI Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,958.
    That statement represented a preliminary prediction, which
    was subject to change during the notice-and-comment
    process. And change it did. In the final rulemaking, the EPA
    further subcategorized the energy recovery unit subcategory
    and revised the MACT floor for waste-burning kilns. See
    2013 CISWI Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 9,122 (explaining the
    changes). New information received during the rulemaking
    inspired those changes, which the EPA made after
    considering the statutory factors. See id.; Reconsideration
    Mem., ¶ 2.3-3.4.5. The evidence does not suggest that the
    103
    EPA refused to set beyond-the-floor emission levels it knew
    were reasonably achievable.36
    In the third challenge, the Environmental Petitioners take
    issue with three determinations that rested on factors other
    than cost. First, the EPA declined to require coal-fired energy
    recovery units to adopt linkageless boiler management
    systems as a beyond-the-floor measure for carbon monoxide.
    See Reconsideration Mem., ¶ 2.3.1.1. While acknowledging
    that linkageless systems were available at “fairly low-cost,”
    the EPA concluded it had insufficient data to determine the
    “actual reductions this control option would achieve” relative
    to an alternative control system. Id.
    The EPA acted reasonably. The record suggests the EPA
    had scant evidence on the efficacy of linkageless control
    measures applied to coal-fired energy recovery units. See id.
    Had the Agency imposed a stricter standard based on controls
    for which it had precious little (if any) evidence, a reviewing
    court may well have concluded the decision lacked “a rational
    connection between the facts found and the choice made.”
    State Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
     (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Second, the EPA rejected regenerative thermal oxidizers
    as a beyond-the-floor control for carbon monoxide in solid
    waste energy recovery units. See 2011 CISWI Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,732. Thermal oxidizers could do the job “but
    likely at a far greater energy requirement (specifically natural
    36
    This argument suffers from an additional flaw: the
    Environmental Petitioners appear to treat as interchangeable
    proposed emissions rules for new units with the final rules
    applicable to existing ones. That apples-and-oranges comparison
    underscores the weakness of the argument.
    104
    gas) [and] with comparable control efficiency” as carbon
    monoxide catalysts, which “some units will need to install to
    meet the MACT floor . . . limits.” Id. In other words, even
    though oxidizers work as well as carbon catalysts, oxidizers
    would be unsuitable because they use more energy. See id.
    (concluding that beyond-the-floor controls “would be
    unreasonable for this subcategory due to additional cost and
    energy impacts”).
    The Environmental Petitioners contend that the EPA
    failed to “suggest that these natural gas requirements are high
    in an absolute sense or relevant to achievability.” No. 11-
    1125 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 51. We agree that the EPA’s analysis
    is less than fully satisfying. Among other reasons, nowhere
    did the Agency estimate the per-ton cost of mandating
    thermal oxidizers, or compare the energy costs relative to
    other control measures.
    Despite these imperfections, we reject the challenge. See
    Dist. Hosp. Partners, L.P. v. Burwell, 
    786 F.3d 46
    , 61 (D.C.
    Cir. 2015) (“[I]mperfection alone does not amount to arbitrary
    decision-making.”). The EPA’s somewhat sparse analysis on
    this issue reflects a somewhat sparse record. At bottom, the
    Agency rejected thermal oxidizers because it lacked sufficient
    evidence to support their utility, at least compared with
    control measures whose efficacy and costs were better known.
    The Agency’s determination should be read in context.
    Elsewhere in the final rule, the EPA expanded on the energy
    and environmental impacts of thermal oxidizers, concluding
    that “[t]he combustion of fuel needed to generate additional
    electricity and to operate [thermal oxidizer] controls would
    yield slight increases in emissions, including NOX, CO, PM,
    and SO2 and an increase in CO2 emissions.” 2011 CISWI
    105
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,744. The EPA addressed another
    statutory factor—cost—by reasonable implication. Energy—
    natural gas, in this case—is not free. A technology that
    demands “far greater energy requirement[s]” naturally comes
    at a cost. See id. at 15,732.
    Though courts are powerless to “supply a reasoned basis
    for the agency’s action that the agency itself has not given,”
    “[w]e will . . . uphold a decision of less than ideal clarity if
    the agency’s path may reasonably be discerned.” State Farm,
    
    463 U.S. at 43
     (internal quotation marks omitted). Here, the
    Agency’s path may reasonably be discerned: mandating
    thermal oxidizers was not achievable due to increased energy
    demands and a corollary increase in cost, see 2011 CISWI
    Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,732 (declining to set a beyond-the-
    floor limit “due to additional cost and energy impacts”). For
    those reasons, EPA did not act unreasonably.
    Third, and finally, the Environmental Petitioners
    challenge the rejection of dry sorbent injection and wet
    scrubbers as beyond-the-floor measures for waste-burning
    kilns. The EPA determined those measures would be cost-
    effective (at only $5,000 per ton) but declined to require them
    due to “uncertainty” surrounding “the appropriate control
    system that some existing kilns would need to employ to
    meet” a stricter standard, “especially kilns that use ingredients
    with a high sulfur content.” See Reconsideration Mem.,
    ¶ 3.4.5. Adding to that uncertainty, the EPA could not
    “account for potential costs at existing sources for additional
    scrubber water and spent sorbent.” Id. As before, the EPA
    reached a reasonable conclusion in the face of imperfect
    information. Had the EPA set a beyond-the-floor standard
    based on sorbent injection and wet scrubbers, the Agency
    106
    would have been flying blind. In avoiding that course, we
    conclude the EPA acted reasonably.
    E. REGULATION OF CERTAIN CISWI UNITS
    The final CISWI Rule did not contain emission standards
    for burn-off ovens, cyclonic burn barrels, foundry sand
    reclamation units, soil treatment units, and space heaters. The
    Environmental Petitioners claim that the EPA unlawfully
    exempted these units from regulation by creating
    subcategories that capture only a subset of the units that the
    Agency is required to regulate as CISWI. The EPA, however,
    protests that it did not exempt these five types of units from
    regulation. Rather, the Agency determined that it lacked
    sufficient data to regulate the units at this time, and, with
    respect to some, it received comments suggesting the units
    were not CISWI.37
    37
    The EPA asserts that it has not made a final decision with
    regard to the regulation of the five units at issue here—a claim that
    calls into question our jurisdiction, which under the CAA is limited
    to “final” actions. See Portland Cement, 
    665 F.3d at
    193 (citing 
    42 U.S.C. § 7607
    (b)). We disagree with the Agency. Because the
    statutory deadline for the EPA to establish emission standards for
    all CISWI has passed, see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(1)(D), “the
    promulgated regulations must be deemed the [A]gency’s complete
    response in compliance with the statutory requirement[].” Hercules
    Inc. v. EPA, 
    938 F.2d 276
    , 282 (D.C. Cir. 1991) (internal quotation
    marks omitted). Accordingly, “even if [the Agency] promulgates
    additional . . . rules sometime in the future, petitioners’ claim that
    the existing final regulations are unlawful remains reviewable by
    this court.” 
    Id.
     (internal quotation marks omitted). Moreover, the
    EPA did not signal in the administrative record that it was
    “continu[ing] the rulemaking process” as to these five units.
    Portland Cement, 
    665 F.3d at 194
     (holding that the EPA’s action
    107
    We agree with the Environmental Petitioners that the
    Agency has violated its nondiscretionary statutory duty (1) to
    promulgate standards with respect to cyclonic burn barrels,
    and (2) to determine whether the remaining four types of units
    fall within the statutory definition of CISWI. The CAA
    requires the EPA to “establish performance standards . . . for
    each category of solid waste incineration units” no later than
    November 15, 1994. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(1)(A), (D).
    The statute then defines “solid waste incineration unit” as a
    “distinct operating unit of any facility which combusts any
    solid waste material from commercial or industrial
    establishments or the general public.” 
    Id.
     § 7429(g)(1)
    (emphasis added). That provision unambiguously requires the
    EPA to set emission standards for “any facility that combusts
    any commercial or industrial solid waste material at all,”
    subject only to the listed statutory exceptions. NRDC I, 
    489 F.3d at 1257-58
    . Because the statutory deadline to regulate
    these units has long passed, the EPA has “breached a non-
    discretionary duty” if it has failed to promulgate standards for
    any facilities combusting solid waste from commercial or
    industrial establishments that do not fit into the listed
    exceptions. Sierra Club v. EPA, 
    992 F.2d 337
    , 346 (D.C. Cir.
    1993); cf. 
    id.
     (explaining that the “plain language” of a similar
    provision in RCRA “obligates the Agency to issue, by the
    deadline, revisions for all facilities” covered by the statute
    and therefore “does not contemplate partial compliance”).
    The Agency makes no effort to claim that cyclonic burn
    barrels fall outside the statutory definition for CISWI units.
    was not “final” under 
    42 U.S.C. § 7607
    (b) because the Agency
    expressly stated in its final rule that the rulemaking process
    remained underway). We therefore need not consider whether our
    conclusion regarding finality would change had it done so.
    108
    Nor could it—both the administrative record and the EPA’s
    brief make clear that cyclonic burn barrels “combust” solid
    waste. See 2011 Proposed CISWI Rule on Reconsideration,
    76 Fed. Reg. at 80,460 (describing a cyclonic burn barrel as
    “a combustion device for waste materials”); No. 11-1125
    EPA Br. 68 (same); see also 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (g)(1) (defining
    “solid waste incineration unit” as a “distinct operating unit of
    any facility which combusts any solid waste material from
    commercial or industrial establishments or the general
    public”). Because they combust solid waste, cyclonic burn
    barrels clearly fall within the statutory definition of “solid
    waste incineration unit” and, as established above, the EPA
    had a nondiscretionary statutory duty to establish emission
    standards for all these units by 1994. We therefore conclude
    that the Agency violated that duty by failing to promulgate
    emission standards for cyclonic burn barrels.
    The EPA protests that it reasonably chose not to regulate
    cyclonic burn barrels at this time, given how little information
    it had on them. According to the EPA, comments revealed
    there were many more cyclonic burn barrels in use than
    originally thought, the Agency lacked data on these units, and
    it was “difficult, if not impossible, to test such units for the
    section 7429 pollutants.” No. 11-1125 EPA Br. 69. But this
    argument misses the point: in light of the unambiguous
    statutory command to promulgate numeric standards for all
    solid waste incineration units, the EPA had no discretion to
    avoid regulating any such units—even if its choice to avoid
    regulating these units would have been otherwise reasonable.
    The Agency was obligated to collect the data it needed, and
    Congress gave it the authority to do so. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7414
    (a) (explaining that for the purpose of regulating solid
    waste combustion under section 7429, the EPA may, for
    example, require owners and operators of those units to
    109
    sample emissions, keep records, and offer other information
    that the Agency needs). Moreover, the Agency provides no
    evidence that it would be infeasible to set emission standards
    for these units. Instead, the EPA merely states that it
    “received information” that measuring emissions is difficult,
    “if not impossible,” but points to no comments or evidence
    supporting this assertion. 2011 Proposed CISWI Rule on
    Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg. at 80,460.
    The EPA also had a duty to determine whether the other
    challenged sources—burn-off ovens (including foundry sand
    reclamation units), soil treatment units, and space heaters—
    were units that “combust” solid waste. Several commenters
    told the Agency that these units fell within the statutory
    definition of CISWI, and the EPA itself initially viewed some
    of these units as combusting waste. See, e.g., CISWI Rule—
    Responses to Comments, at 74-76; 2010 Proposed CISWI
    Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,941. Under these circumstances, the
    Agency was obligated to determine whether the units in fact
    combust solid waste. Yet the EPA concedes it never made
    that determination. As we have explained, the EPA had a
    nondiscretionary duty to promulgate standards for all solid
    waste combustion units.        This obligation includes the
    subsidiary duty to determine whether the units identified by
    the commenters in fact combust solid waste. Any other
    conclusion would allow the Agency to ignore its statutory
    mandate altogether by not taking the initial step of identifying
    such units.
    The CAA unambiguously requires that the Agency
    establish standards for all CISWI units. As a result, we grant
    the Environmental Petitioners’ petition for review on this
    issue and remand to the Agency to set emission standards for
    cyclonic burn barrels. The EPA must also determine whether
    110
    the remaining four types of units are CISWI units and, if it
    finds that they are, it must set standards for them as well.
    F. DELISTING UNDER 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (C)
    In contrast to major source subcategories (all of which
    the EPA must control), the CAA does not require the EPA to
    control emissions in every area source subcategory. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c)(1), (3). The Act does, however, mandate
    that the EPA control area source emissions if the area source
    subcategory meets certain criteria. Section 7412(c)(1), for
    instance, requires the EPA to control any area source
    subcategory upon the Agency’s finding that emissions from
    the sources in the subcategory jeopardize either the
    environment or human health. See 
    id.
     § 7412(c)(3). If so, the
    EPA can establish either a MACT or a GACT standard. See
    id. § 7412(d)(5). Similarly, if the EPA finds that capping
    emissions from an area source subcategory is necessary to
    achieve a 90 per cent reduction in the aggregate emissions of
    one of seven CAA-enumerated HAPs, section 7412(c)(6)
    requires the Agency to impose caps in that subcategory as
    well. See id. § 7412(c)(6). Upon that finding, however, the
    EPA must impose a MACT standard. Id.
    In addition to prescribing requirements for inclusion of
    area source subcategories, the CAA provides a mechanism for
    removal of area source subcategories that, in the EPA’s view,
    no longer need to be controlled. Specifically, the EPA can
    “delete” any subcategory if it finds that no source or group of
    sources in it (1) emits cancer-causing HAPs at a volume
    sufficient to increase the lifetime risk of cancer in the
    population by more than one in one million and (2) emits non-
    cancer-causing HAPs at a level in excess of that which is
    adequate “to protect public health with an ample margin of
    111
    safety” and to prevent against environmental harm. Id.
    § 7412(c)(9)(B). The section 7412(c)(9) process is known as
    “delisting.”
    In 1998, the EPA identified several area source boiler
    subcategories—including       oil-fired,   industrial    wood,
    commercial oil-fired and commercial wood-combustion
    boilers—as contributors to the “90 per centum of the
    aggregate emissions” of Hg and POM under section
    7412(c)(6).     See Source Category Listing for Section
    112(d)(2) Rulemaking Pursuant to Section 112(c)(6)
    Requirements, 
    63 Fed. Reg. 17,838
    , 17,839 (Apr. 10, 1998).
    When it decided to “list” these sources, however, the EPA
    included a caveat. It explained that it used the best emissions
    information it had at the time to conclude that these boiler
    subcategories produced enough Hg and POM emissions to
    justify section 7412(c)(6) control but it also admitted that it
    could not “assure that this calculation of the 90 percent will
    remain constant.” 
    Id. at 17,840
    .
    The caveat proved prescient. When the EPA issued the
    2010 Proposed Area Boilers Rule, it decided it needed to
    regulate only coal-fired boilers at the MACT level to control
    90 per cent of Hg emissions. See 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,898.
    And when it finalized the 2011 Area Boilers Rule, the Agency
    similarly decided that it needed to regulate only coal-fired
    boilers at the MACT level to control 90 per cent of POM
    emissions. See 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,566.
    For this reason, the EPA established GACT, rather than
    MACT, standards for the oil-fired and biomass-fired area
    source subcategories regarding these two pollutants. See id.
    It did not, however, make any of the “delisting” findings
    required by section 7412(c)(9) when it removed these area
    112
    source subcategories from section 7412(c)(6)’s purview. See
    2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,566 (“[W]e have
    not removed or ‘delisted’ oil-fired and biomass-fired area
    source boilers by this action. We are not promulgating
    MACT-based regulations at this time because they are
    unnecessary to meet the requirements of CAA section
    112(c)(6).”). The Environmental Petitioners challenge the
    EPA’s imposition of GACT standards, arguing that, because
    once the EPA “listed” these sources under section
    7412(c)(6)’s MACT requirement, the CAA mandates that the
    EPA “delist” them under section 7412(c)(9) before putting
    them under the more lenient GACT standards. In their view,
    the EPA’s contrary approach fails at Chevron step 1. The
    EPA responds that section 7412(c)(9) applies only if it
    decides to “delist” a subcategory entirely from section 7412
    regulation, resulting in neither MACT nor GACT restrictions.
    Because section 7412(c)(9) does not unambiguously
    apply to section 7412(c)(6) and because the EPA’s
    interpretation of section 7412(c)(9)’s delisting requirement is
    reasonable, we uphold the EPA’s decision as permissible
    under Chevron step 2. Section 7412(c)(9) provides that the
    EPA “may delete any source category from the list under this
    subsection” on its finding that the source category is not a
    threat to human health or the environment. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c)(9)(B). The inclusion of a singular “list” to govern
    “this subsection” seems, most naturally, to refer to the list
    contemplated by section 7412(c)(1), which states that the
    EPA “shall publish, and shall from time to time . . . revise . . .
    a list of all categories and subcategories of . . . area sources
    (listed under paragraph (3)).” 
    Id.
     § 7412(c)(1) (emphasis
    added). In other words, it appears that section 7412(c)(1)
    directs the EPA to create one “list” of source categories and
    subcategories to subject to emission controls and section
    113
    7412(c)(9) instructs how to remove source categories from
    that list. This conclusion finds support in section 7412(c)(1)’s
    cross reference to “paragraph (3)” of section 7412(c), which
    lays out the circumstances under which the EPA “shall list”
    area source categories for emissions control. Id. § 7412(c)(3).
    In the Environmental Petitioners’ view, section
    7412(c)(9) also applies to a second, subsidiary list—that
    contemplated by section 7412(c)(6), requiring imposition of
    the MACT standard. Granted, section 7412(c)(6) mandates
    that the EPA “shall . . . list” source categories and
    subcategories if doing so is necessary to control 90 per cent of
    the aggregate emissions from seven enumerated pollutants.
    Id. § 7412(c)(6) (emphasis added). But the use of the verb
    “list” in section 7412(c)(6) does not unambiguously establish
    that 7412(c)(9), titled “[d]eletions from the list,” applies.
    Because section 7412(c)(9) is ambiguous, we defer to the
    EPA so long as its interpretation is “based on a permissible
    construction.” Chevron, 
    467 U.S. at 842-43
    . And the EPA’s
    reading of section 7412(c)(9)—that it applies only if the EPA
    wants to remove a category from all section 7412
    regulation—is reasonable.
    First, the EPA’s approach harmonizes sections
    7412(c)(1), 7412(c)(3), and 7412(c)(9). Because the EPA
    must find that an area source “presents a threat of adverse
    effects to human health or the environment” before it
    regulates the source category at all, 
    id.
     § 7412(c)(3), it makes
    sense to require the EPA to find that “no source in the
    category or subcategory . . . exceed[s] a level which is
    adequate to protect public health . . . and no adverse
    environmental effect will result from emissions from any
    source” before it completely deregulates that category, id.
    § 7412(c)(9). It makes less sense to require the EPA to make
    114
    the same findings before it opts for GACT instead of MACT
    standards, which occurs when the EPA removes a source from
    section 7412(c)(6)’s purview but continues to regulate it
    under section 7412(c)(1).
    Second, the EPA’s approach is consistent with our
    decision in New Jersey, 
    517 F.3d 574
    . There, we held that
    “the only way EPA could remove [a source category] from
    the section [7412(c)(1)] list was by satisfying section
    [7412(c)(9)’s] requirements.” 
    Id. at 582
    . In other words, New
    Jersey held that the EPA cannot remove a source category
    from all section 7412 regulation without delisting it; it said
    nothing about the process by which the EPA moves source
    categories from section 7412(c)(6).
    Finally, the Petitioners’ argument would freeze the
    EPA’s decision as to which sources need to be controlled to
    reach the requisite 90 per cent emissions reduction for the
    section 7412(c)(6) pollutants until it determines that “no
    source in the category or subcategory . . . exceed[s] a level
    which is adequate to protect public health . . . and no adverse
    environmental effect will result from emissions from any
    source.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c)(9). This, in turn, would hamper
    the EPA’s ability to respond to updated data, thereby
    substantially complicating its attempts to control the
    pollutants. Nothing in the CAA suggests that the Congress
    intended to so hamstring the Agency.
    G. TITLE V PERMIT EXEMPTION FOR SYNTHETIC BOILERS
    The EPA has discretion to exempt one or more area
    source categories from Title V permitting requirements upon
    a finding “that compliance with such requirements is
    impracticable, infeasible, or unnecessarily burdensome on
    such categories.” 42 U.S.C. § 7661a(a). The EPA originally
    115
    proposed exempting some area source categories because
    existing “testing, monitoring, notification, and recordkeeping
    requirements” rendered Title V permitting cumulative. 2010
    Proposed Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,910. At the
    time, however, the EPA elected not to exempt synthetic area
    sources as one of those categories. Id. at 31,913. Synthetic
    area sources are boilers that “naturally” emit pollutants at a
    major source level but which qualify as area sources due to
    the voluntary adoption of air pollution control technologies.
    Id. Despite its initial stance, the EPA ultimately decided to
    exempt all area sources—including synthetic area sources—
    from Title V’s permitting requirements. See 2011 Area
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,578.
    Environmental Petitioners argue the EPA’s decision to
    exclude synthetic boilers from Title V licensing requirements
    is arbitrary and capricious for two reasons. First, they say, the
    EPA arbitrarily concluded synthetic area sources would bear
    the same level of burden as other area sources in complying
    with Title V permitting requirements, rather than a lesser one.
    See No. 11-1141 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 39-43. And second, they
    contend the EPA arbitrarily dismissed the additional
    compliance benefits of Title V licensing for these synthetic
    sources. See id. at 43-47. Under State Farm, “an agency rule
    [is] arbitrary and capricious if the agency . . . offered an
    explanation of its decision that runs counter to the evidence
    before the agency.” 
    463 U.S. at 43
    . A court may not accept
    an agency’s “post hoc rationalizations” for its
    decisionmaking. 
    Id. at 49
    .
    The EPA has authority under the CAA to exempt sources
    from Title V permitting requirements if those requirements
    would be “impracticable, infeasible, or unnecessarily
    burdensome” on the area source. 42 U.S.C. § 7661a(a). The
    116
    EPA previously developed a four-factor balancing test to
    determine whether Title V’s requirements are “unnecessarily
    burdensome.” See Exemption of Certain Area Sources from
    Title V Operating Permit Programs, 
    70 Fed. Reg. 75,320
    ,
    75,323 (Dec. 19, 2005). Under this test, the EPA considers
    whether: (1) Title V permitting would result in significant
    improvements in compliance with emission standards;
    (2) whether Title V permitting would impose significant
    burdens on the area source category; (3) whether the costs are
    justified, taking into account potential gains; and (4) whether
    there are existing enforcement programs in place sufficient to
    ensure compliance. See 
    id. at 75,323-26
    . The EPA also must
    consider, consistent with the legislative history of the CAA,
    whether exemption would “adversely affect public health,
    welfare, or the environment.” 
    Id. at 75,333-34
    . These factors
    are considered in combination and not every factor must point
    in favor of exemption for the EPA to choose that course. See
    
    id. at 75,323
    .
    In its 2010 Proposed Area Boilers Rule, the EPA applied
    this balancing test and excluded almost all area source boilers
    except synthetic boilers that achieved “area” status via
    installation of a control technology (although it exempted
    those that achieved “area” status through operational
    changes). The EPA provided an extensive rationale for its
    decision to exclude these “natural” area sources from Title
    V’s permitting requirements. See 2010 Proposed Area
    Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,910-13. With respect to
    factor one, the EPA found its proposed rule already required
    “direct monitoring of emissions,” both continuously and
    periodically, recordkeeping that would allow for additional
    monitoring, and “semi-annual reporting to assure
    compliance.” Id. at 31,911. Moreover, under the proposed
    rule, “records are required to be maintained in a form suitable
    117
    and readily available for expeditious review” for up to five
    years. Id. The EPA acknowledged Title V permitting could
    provide some additional compliance benefits; specifically,
    that Title V has an every-six-month monitoring and reporting
    requirement. See id. But the EPA ultimately concluded the
    monitoring, recordkeeping, and reporting requirements of its
    proposed rule were sufficient to assure compliance: “Given
    the nature of the operations at most area sources and the types
    of requirements in this rule, Title V would not significantly
    improve those compliance requirements.” Id.
    As to the second factor, the EPA noted that subjecting
    most area sources to Title V would “impose[] certain burdens
    and costs that do not exist outside of the [t]itle V program.”
    Id. at 31,912. One of the EPA’s major concerns was that
    “requiring permits for the large number of area sources could,
    at least in the first few years of implementation, potentially
    adversely affect public health, welfare, or the environment by
    shifting [s]tate agencies[’] resources away from assuring
    compliance for major sources with existing permits to issuing
    new permits for these area sources, potentially reducing
    overall air program effectiveness.” Id. at 31,913. For the
    third factor, the EPA concluded the costs of compliance
    would “impose a significant burden on many of the
    approximately 137,000 facilities affected by this proposed
    rule” with only “low” potential gains in compliance. Id. at
    31,912. Finally, for the fourth factor, the EPA determined
    that “[s]tate delegated programs are sufficient to assure
    compliance with this [rule],” and noted that the Agency
    retains authority to enforce this rule “anytime.” Id. The EPA
    therefore proposed exempting these area sources from the
    permitting requirements. See id. Environmental Petitioners
    are not currently challenging the exemption for non-synthetic
    area boilers.
    118
    However, in this 2010 rulemaking, the EPA also
    explained precisely why it declined to exempt synthetic area
    sources that installed air pollution controls from Title V
    requirements. First, the EPA noted these synthetic area
    sources “represent less than one percent of the total number of
    sources that will be subject to the final rule.” Id. at 31,913.
    The EPA also characterized these sources as “much more like
    the major sources” that are not exempt from Title V
    permitting requirements. Id. Further distinctions included
    that “many of these sources are located in cities, and often in
    close proximity to residential and commercial centers where
    large numbers of people live and work,” that they “have
    significantly higher emissions potential when uncontrolled”
    (even compared to synthetic boilers that adopted operational
    limits to attain area source status), and that many of these
    sources “are large facilities with comprehensive compliance
    programs in place” as opposed to small facilities, like schools
    or hospitals. Id. Given these distinctions, the EPA concluded
    additional public involvement and compliance oversight
    through Title V was “important to ensure that these sources
    are maintaining their emissions at the area source level.” Id.
    But the EPA shifted its position in the 2011 Area Boilers
    Rule by deciding to exempt all area sources, including
    synthetic sources. See 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,578. The EPA
    provided only a cursory explanation for this shift, noting how
    a further review of the record led it to conclude “observations
    and data we have relied upon in other rulemakings for
    distinguishing between sources that became synthetic area
    sources due to controls and other synthetic and natural area
    sources [do] not necessarily apply to this source category.”
    Id. (emphasis added). Because the EPA asserted it no longer
    had “sufficient information” to identify control-technology-
    dependent synthetic sources, it decided to apply the same
    119
    rationale used to exempt “natural” sources to these synthetic
    sources. Id. (“[T]he rationale for exempting most area
    sources subject to this rule . . . is also now relevant for sources
    which we proposed to permit [under Title V].”). But—even if
    the EPA truly cannot distinguish between synthetic sources
    relying on control technologies and other sources—it does not
    invariably follow that the justifications the Agency relied on
    for exempting “natural” sources under the four-factor
    balancing test can be transposed onto these synthetic sources.
    Cf. Sierra Club II, 
    479 F.3d at 884
     (“We agree with the Sierra
    Club that EPA’s use of work practice standards instead of
    emission floors violates section 7412(h). That provision
    allows EPA to substitute work practice standards for emission
    floors only if measuring emissions levels is technologically or
    economically impracticable. Here, EPA never determined
    that measuring emissions from ceramic kilns was
    impracticable; it determined only that it lacked emissions data
    from ceramics kilns. EPA thus had no basis under section
    7412(h) for using work practice standards.”).
    In its next iteration of the rule, the EPA endeavored to
    further explain its exemption of synthetic sources. The EPA
    again stated it “lacked sufficient information” to distinguish
    these synthetic sources from other area sources. See 2011
    Proposed Area Boilers Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 80,538. The Sierra Club challenged this exemption in a
    comment, and the EPA responded with “additional analysis”
    of the synthetic exemption. Id. In this analysis, the EPA first
    reiterated the difference in number between the two types:
    estimating there to be at least 48 control-technology-
    dependent synthetic sources versus 137,000 other area
    sources, most of which are located at small facilities like
    schools, hospitals, and churches. See id. The EPA then
    provided a new rationale for the exemption: that these
    120
    synthetic facilities “may already have a Title V permit for
    other reasons.” Id. The EPA also found that “synthetic area
    sources would likely be subject to more stringent permit and
    monitoring requirements than natural area sources” because
    they have a “legal duty to use the control equipment” to keep
    them at an “area” level. Id. (emphasis added). Finally, the
    EPA made several assertions about the similarities between
    synthetic and natural sources. Specifically, that synthetic
    sources are “similar in size and sophistication to those that are
    natural area sources,” that their “uncontrolled emissions are
    generally on the same order of magnitude as the emissions of
    natural sources,” and that “the facilities and owners are
    comparable in size.” Id. The EPA provided no data or
    examples in support of these assertions, which appear to
    directly contradict the distinctions the EPA listed in its earlier
    version of the rule. Compare id., with 2010 Proposed Area
    Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,913. In its final rule, the
    EPA declined to make any changes to its Title V
    exemptions—exempting all area sources including synthetic
    sources using a control technology. See 2013 Area Boilers
    Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,497.
    Based on this record, the EPA’s reasoning has several
    fatal flaws that render its exemption decision arbitrary. The
    EPA put forward two primary justifications for exempting
    synthetic sources: (1) that it could not necessarily rely on
    existing data for distinguishing the different type of sources,
    and (2) that these facilities are “similar in size and
    sophistication” to natural area sources. See 2011 Proposed
    Area Boilers Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    80,538. The second justification flatly contradicts the EPA’s
    earlier, extensive discussion about how these synthetic
    sources have higher emissions potential and are often located
    on large sites with existing compliance programs, in addition
    121
    to being uniquely few in number and generally found near
    cities. 2010 Proposed Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at
    31,912-13. These factors all undercut the EPA’s assertion
    that synthetic sources are “similar”—in size, sophistication, or
    otherwise—to natural sources. With respect to the lack of
    data for distinguishing, the EPA was able to estimate in its
    proposed rule that 48 synthetic sources would have been
    affected by this rule—which suggests the EPA possesses
    some mechanism for distinguishing the types. See 2011
    Proposed Area Boilers Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 80,538. Moreover, the EPA does not explain why the data
    it used in prior rulemakings to distinguish these source types
    is not accurate in this context. Environmental Petitioners also
    point out that, “to qualify for area-source status, synthetic area
    sources must notify the EPA or the state permitting authority
    of the limits on their emissions,” such that the EPA “need
    only ask these authorities to identify the sources operating in
    their states.” No. 11-1141, Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 39-40. The EPA
    never endeavors to explain why that mechanism (or any other
    existing mechanism) is insufficient for identifying synthetic
    area sources.
    Because its justifications for the final rule contradict
    earlier findings, the EPA must provide some reasoning to
    explain why its final decision “runs counter to the evidence
    before the agency.” State Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
    . The EPA’s
    proffered explanation fails. This court has “often declined to
    affirm an agency decision if there are unexplained
    inconsistencies in the final rule.” See Dist. Hosp. Partners,
    786 F.3d at 59; see also Gulf Power Co. v. FERC, 
    983 F.2d 1095
    , 1101 (D.C. Cir. 1993) (“[W]hen an agency takes
    inconsistent positions . . . it must explain its reasoning.”);
    Gen. Chem. Corp. v. United States, 
    817 F.2d 844
    , 846 (D.C.
    Cir. 1987) (holding agency action to be arbitrary because its
    122
    analysis was “internally inconsistent and inadequately
    explained”). The EPA had a duty here to examine and justify
    the “key assumptions” underlying its decision, and it failed to
    do so. See Appalachian Power Co. v. EPA, 
    135 F.3d 791
    , 818
    (D.C. Cir. 1998) (“EPA retains a duty to examine key
    assumptions as part of its affirmative burden of promulgating
    and explaining a nonarbitrary, non-capricious rule.” (internal
    quotation marks omitted)).
    The EPA’s major oversight was its failure to explain why
    the rationale it used to exempt natural area sources from Title
    V could be identically applied to synthetic area sources. One
    of the Agency’s main justifications for exempting natural area
    sources was that their prolific numbers might overwhelm state
    and local regulatory agencies, diverting resources from other
    important environmental programs, thereby harming public
    health and welfare. The EPA never explained why requiring
    48 synthetic area sources to comply with Title V would strain
    government resources to a comparable degree as would
    requiring the 137,000 natural area sources to comply. As
    discussed above, the EPA also did not explain how it
    suddenly determined these synthetic area sources were
    “similar in size and sophistication” to natural sources, when it
    had previously articulated several key differences. It is
    particularly unclear how these synthetic sources could have
    “uncontrolled emissions . . . generally on the same order of
    magnitude as the emissions of natural area sources.” 2011
    Proposed Area Boilers Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 80,538. Given that synthetic sources are defined as
    “major” sources that have artificially reduced their emissions
    to an “area” level, it is difficult to understand how the
    uncontrolled emissions of these sources would be similar to
    natural area sources. Additionally, the EPA asserted that
    synthetic source “facilities and owners are comparable in
    123
    size” to natural sources. Id. This contradicts earlier findings
    that synthetic sources tend to be large, located on sites with
    existing compliance plans, and near population-dense areas.
    The EPA provides no data or explanation to support this shift.
    The EPA relies on another problematic premise when it
    claims the potential benefits of subjecting synthetic area
    sources to Title V requirements are low. Both the EPA and
    Industry Intervenors argue that the added benefits of Title V
    would be minimal for these synthetic sources, relying solely
    on the rationale given for natural sources. But the EPA
    originally asserted “additional public involvement and
    compliance assurance requirements through title V [are]
    important to ensure that these sources are maintaining their
    emissions at the area source level.” 2010 Proposed Area
    Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,913 (emphasis added). The
    EPA never explains why these additional benefits were
    considered “important” before but are now “not important”
    simply because it allegedly determined that synthetic sources
    may be hard to distinguish from natural sources. The
    difficulty in identifying synthetic sources says nothing about
    the benefits that may be gained by requiring Title V permits,
    assuming the sources can be identified. Synthetic sources
    retain the attributes which first motivated the EPA to subject
    them to Title V permitting: they tend to be near cities,
    specifically near large residential populations, and they have
    greater emission potential if their control technology is
    removed, turned off, or not kept up to standards. The EPA
    arguably finds Title V’s additional compliance benefits
    unnecessary because synthetic sources have “a legal duty to
    use the control equipment” and that use is “not optional.”
    2011 Proposed Area Boilers Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 80,538. But that observation does not speak to the
    need for public oversight; just because facilities are obligated
    124
    to use the control technology does not mean they will always
    do so. Title V’s process requires facilities to submit
    compliance documentation every six months—far more
    frequently than under the EPA’s current rule—which expands
    the opportunity for public oversight and compliance. Perhaps
    this “legal duty” provides a stronger incentive for compliance
    than public oversight but, if so, the EPA still fails to explain
    how.
    Similarly, for factor three’s balancing of costs and
    benefits, the EPA never justifies applying to natural sources—
    which tend to be small sites like schools, hospitals, and
    churches—the same rationale it applies to these larger
    synthetic sources, which tend to be located at refineries,
    chemical plants, and factories. Given these distinctions, it is
    at least possible this balancing would lead to a different
    outcome for synthetic sources. Taken as a whole, the EPA’s
    analysis fails to explain why several of the facts and
    characteristics it relied on for its initial assessment are no
    longer relevant—creating several glaring inconsistencies in
    the rulemaking record. The EPA offers no plausible reason
    for applying the results of the four-factor test for natural
    sources wholesale to these control-technology-dependent
    synthetic sources. We do not hold, however, that the EPA can
    never remove synthetic area sources from the ambit of Title V
    compliance. The outcome the EPA ultimately reached may
    be reasonable; however, “[n]ot only must an agency’s decreed
    result be within the scope of its lawful authority, but the
    process by which it reaches that result must be logical and
    rational.” Allentown Mack Sales & Serv., Inc. v. NLRB, 
    522 U.S. 359
    , 374 (1998). The EPA should have applied its four-
    factor balancing test directly to synthetic sources or, at a
    minimum, provided an explanation for adopting the natural
    125
    source balancing test that is not premised on inconsistencies
    in the record.
    With respect to remedy, there is a strong possibility that
    the Agency can properly explain its decision to exclude
    synthetic boilers from the Title V permitting requirement;
    moreover, vacating the decision would be unnecessarily
    disruptive for synthetic boiler operators who, in the interim,
    would not know whether they needed to begin the expensive,
    time-consuming process of obtaining a Title V permit. See
    Allied-Signal, Inc. v. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Comm’n, 
    988 F.2d 146
    , 150-51 (D.C. Cir. 1993). We therefore remand this
    issue (without vacating) for further explanation by the EPA.
    H. GACT STANDARD DETERMINATIONS
    With few exceptions, the EPA has broad discretion to
    choose how to control area source emissions. For instance,
    the EPA has discretion to choose between GACT and MACT
    standards in the majority of cases.       See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(5). Even if the EPA chooses a MACT standard, it
    has discretion—although somewhat circumscribed—to set a
    work-practice standard instead of a numeric standard. 
    Id.
    § 7412(h)(1). And the EPA has discretion when choosing
    among different GACT-standard options.           See id.
    § 7412(d)(5).
    Accordingly, we must uphold the EPA’s GACT-standard
    determinations so long as it “has considered the relevant
    factors and articulated a rational connection between the facts
    found and the choice made, and has not relied on [improper]
    factors.” Nat’l Ass’n of Clean Air Agencies, 489 F.3d at 1228
    (citations and internal quotation marks omitted). But for all
    of the discretion the EPA enjoys, it must nonetheless
    demonstrate that it exercised its judgment in a reasoned way.
    126
    The cases establishing this principle are legion. See, e.g.,
    Transactive Corp. v. United States, 
    91 F.3d 232
    , 236 (D.C.
    Cir. 1996) (agency must “identif[y] and explain[] the
    reasoned basis for its decision”); Int’l Fabricare Inst., 
    972 F.2d at 389
     (agency must “examine[] the relevant data and
    . . . articulate[] an adequate explanation for its action”). The
    EPA need not go to great lengths to meet its burden; indeed,
    we “uphold a decision of less than ideal clarity” so long as
    “the agency’s path may reasonably be discerned.” State
    Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
     (quoting Ark.-Best Freight Sys., Inc.,
    419 U.S. at 286).
    With these principles in mind, we address the
    Environmental Petitioners’ two challenges to the EPA’s
    discretionary decisions regarding the Area Boilers Rule.
    1. EPA’s Selection of GACT Standards
    for Non-Hg Metals
    The Environmental Petitioners argue that the EPA failed
    to support its decision-making when it established MACT
    standards for Hg and POM emissions from some coal-fired
    boilers but declined to regulate non-Hg emissions under the
    MACT standard from the same boilers. We agree. Although
    the EPA thoroughly explained why it chose to impose one
    GACT standard instead of another, nothing in the record
    explains why the EPA decided to impose GACT standards
    instead of MACT standards in the first place. Despite the
    Agency’s broad discretion, we cannot sustain its action in the
    absence of some explanation for why GACT standards are
    more appropriate than MACT standards for these sources and
    types of pollutants. See Transactive Corp., 
    91 F.3d at 236
    .
    For this reason, we remand (but do not vacate) the EPA’s
    choice of GACT standards for non-Hg emissions from coal-
    127
    fired boilers. See Sierra Club, 
    167 F.3d at 664
    ; Nat’l Lime
    Ass’n, 
    233 F.3d at 634-35
    .
    2. EPA’s Selection of Certain GACT Standards
    The Environmental Petitioners also challenge several of
    the EPA’s choices among different GACT standards. As
    noted, see supra § I.A.1.c, the CAA provides virtually no
    instruction regarding GACT standards but the standards
    generally take the form of “methods, practices and techniques
    which are commercially available and appropriate for
    application by the sources in the category considering
    economic impacts and the technical capabilities of the firms
    to operate and maintain the emissions control systems.” S.
    REP. NO. 101-228, at 171 (1989). Because the EPA has
    ample discretion to choose the appropriate GACT standard,
    we will affirm its choices so long as we can discern reasoned
    decision-making from the record. State Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
    .
    For the reasons set forth below, we can do so here and,
    accordingly, we reject the Environmental Petitioners’ GACT-
    focused challenges.
    First, the Environmental Petitioners challenge the data set
    the EPA used to arrive at the numeric GACT standards for
    non-Hg-metal emissions from coal-fired boilers. Specifically,
    they contend that the EPA set the GACT limit based on
    boilers with no control technology, which resulted in a
    numeric standard of 0.42 lb/mmBtu. They insist that the EPA
    should instead have examined boilers outfitted with fabric
    filters, which would have resulted in a numeric standard of
    0.03 lb/mmBtu. The EPA, however, thoroughly explained
    why it considered the uncontrolled boiler data set.
    Specifically, the controlled data set derives from the EPA’s
    “New Source Performance Standards” (NSPS) data, which, in
    128
    the Agency’s view, could be used to set the non-Hg-metal
    GACT standard for boilers with a heat input capacity of 30
    mmBtu/hr or greater but did not suffice for boilers with a
    lower heat input capacity. For this reason, the EPA examined
    its original data set, found that none of the coal-fired boilers
    in that set used control technology and, accordingly, set the
    GACT numeric standard at the emissions level achieved by
    the best performing uncontrolled source in that data set (i.e.,
    0.42 lb/mmBtu). We are satisfied that the EPA exercised its
    discretion in a reasoned manner and, accordingly, we do not
    disturb it. See Transactive Corp., 
    91 F.3d at 236
    .
    Next, the Environmental Petitioners challenge the EPA’s
    decision to establish a tune-up requirement as a GACT
    management-practice standard for Hg and POM emissions
    from large biomass-fired and oil-fired boilers. In their view,
    other, more restrictive control technologies, including
    multiclones,38 are “generally available” and their availability
    mandates that the EPA set numeric standards based on boilers
    that use those controls. But the EPA explained its approach:
    A boiler tune-up requirement would potentially
    result in the same non-mercury metallic HAP
    reduction as a PM emission limit based on
    performance of multiclones but would also
    reduce emissions of organic HAP. In addition
    the cost of a boiler tune-up appears minimal
    compared to the cost for testing and
    38
    A multiclone is a PM “mechanical separator[].” See 2010
    Proposed Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,908. It diverts
    particles from the exhaust stream by creating a circular air flow.
    See id.
    129
    monitoring to demonstrate compliance with an
    emission limit.
    See 2010 Proposed Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,908.
    The EPA also explained that multiclones were “minimally
    effective” for controlling non-Hg metals, ineffective for POM
    and Hg, and expensive. Id. Because the EPA’s decision to
    impose a tune-up requirement fits within its “technical
    expertise,” we owe the Agency an “extreme degree of
    deference” so long as its explanation is rational. Catawba
    Cty., N.C. v. EPA, 
    571 F.3d 20
    , 41 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (quoting
    City of Waukesha v. EPA, 
    320 F.3d 228
    , 247 (D.C. Cir.
    2003)). And because its explanation was rational, we reject
    the Petitioners’ challenge thereto.
    Finally, the Petitioners challenge the EPA’s decision to
    set a tune-up requirement as a management-practice standard
    for small biomass-fired and oil-fired area boilers. The EPA
    adopted this approach because measuring PM emissions for
    smaller boilers is “not feasible.” 2010 Proposed Area Boilers
    Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,906. When the EPA explained its
    decision regarding small biomass-fired and oil-fired area
    boilers, it provided the same reasons it gave for its use of a
    tune-up requirement for small coal-fired area boilers, which
    we address (and uphold), infra, § IV.M. For those reasons,
    we reject the challenge to the EPA’s tune-up requirement for
    small biomass-fired and oil-fired area boilers.
    I. 30-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE
    As discussed, see supra § I.B.1.a, when the EPA sets a
    MACT floor, it begins by examining data generated by stack
    testing. Once the MACT standard is established, however, a
    source may (and in some cases, must) demonstrate
    compliance by implementing “continuous monitoring” instead
    130
    of conducting additional stack tests.39 See 2011 Proposed
    CISWI Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg. at 80,464-65.
    For a source using a continuous monitor, the EPA determines
    MACT-standard compliance based on the source’s thirty-day
    “rolling average.” Id. at 80,465.
    The calculation of a thirty-day rolling average is
    straightforward: the average of a source’s daily emissions for
    the immediately preceding thirty days. Each day produces a
    new rolling average and each “average is a separate
    compliance determination.” No. 11-1125 EPA Br. 88 n.17.
    In the EPA’s view, this “allow[s] operators sufficient
    flexibility for operational and control device adjustments
    should they be needed for short term fuel or waste
    characteristics variability.” 2011 Proposed CISWI Rule on
    Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg. at 80,465. The EPA also
    concluded that thirty-day rolling average violations will occur
    almost as frequently as violations of shorter rolling-average
    periods. Id.
    The CAA vests the EPA with authority to “prescribe
    procedures and methods for determining compliance and for
    monitoring and analysis of pollutants.” 42 U.S.C. § 7661c(b).
    We have emphasized that the EPA has “broad discretion in
    selecting a monitoring regime that ensures compliance, and as
    long as it reasonably articulate[s] the basis for its decision,
    [we] will defer to the informed discretion of the Agency,
    39
    As the name suggests, a continuous monitoring system
    measures the source’s emissions at all times and generally takes one
    of two forms: (1) a continuous parameter monitor, which measures,
    e.g., a source’s temperature, pressure or oxygen content; or (2) a
    continuous emissions monitor, which measures the pollutant
    concentration in the source’s emissions.
    131
    recognizing that analysis of this issue requires a high level of
    expertise.” White Stallion Energy Ctr., LLC v. EPA, 
    748 F.3d 1222
    , 1255 (D.C. Cir. 2014) (per curiam) (citation and
    internal quotation marks omitted), rev’d on other grounds by
    Michigan v. EPA, 
    135 S. Ct. 2699
     (2015). Notwithstanding
    this deference, the Environmental Petitioners argue that
    allowing a source to demonstrate compliance by way of a
    thirty-day rolling average not only fails Chevron review but is
    also arbitrary. We disagree.
    First, they argue that the thirty-day rolling average fails at
    Chevron step 1 because it allows sources to emit HAPs
    continuously at the UPL-established MACT floor. Because
    they do not believe that the UPL represents the average
    emissions level achieved by the best performing sources, they
    argue that, ipso facto, allowing sources to continuously emit
    HAPs at the UPL level means that sources are permitted to
    emit at levels higher than the average levels achieved by the
    best performing sources. Because we have already concluded
    that the UPL is in fact a reasonable proxy for the average
    emissions level achieved by the best performing sources, see
    supra § IV.C, the Environmental Petitioners’ premise is
    inaccurate. And because the “total emissions from a unit
    complying with a rolling average must still be below the total
    emissions from a unit emitting continuously at the level of the
    standard,” No. 11-1125 EPA Br. 90, the Environmental
    Petitioners’ Chevron step 1 argument fails.
    The Environmental Petitioners’ Chevron step 2 argument
    fares no better. The EPA explained that (1) it expects to catch
    violations using a thirty-day rolling average “almost as much
    as for a shorter term average” and (2) it believes the longer
    average to be more effective in addressing “[c]oncerns of
    variability outside the operators[’] control such as fuel
    132
    content, seasonal factors, load cycling, and infrequent hours
    of needed operation.” 2011 Proposed CISWI Rule on
    Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg. at 80,465. Because the EPA
    “reasonably articulate[d] the basis for its decision,” we uphold
    it. White Stallion, 748 F.3d at 1255 (internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    Finally, we conclude that the EPA’s allowance of thirty-
    day rolling averaging does not reflect an arbitrary change in
    position. Although the Petitioners cite other rules that, in
    their view, manifest that the EPA once believed that longer
    averaging periods resulted in less stringent enforcement, most
    of the rules they cite have nothing to do with MACT-setting
    or MACT compliance40 and none evidences an unexplained or
    unjustified deviation. Similarly, the Petitioners point to the
    EPA’s explanation in the 2011 CISWI Rule that “24-hour
    block averages . . . would be inconsistent with the sampling
    time for the stack test data” to indicate an arbitrary change in
    position. See 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,728. But the EPA made this
    statement while discussing why stack-test data and
    continuous-monitoring data could not be used in tandem to set
    a MACT level, which says nothing about allowing emissions
    40
    The only exception is the EPA’s 1996 Medical-Waste
    Incinerators Rule, which provides that “[t]he period of time over
    which emissions are measured and then averaged to determine
    compliance with the regulation . . . must correspond to the period of
    time over which emission levels were measured and averaged in
    determining the emission limits included in the regulation.”
    Standards of Performance for New Stationary Sources and
    Emission Guidelines for Existing Sources: Medical Waste
    Incinerators, 
    61 Fed. Reg. 31,736
    , 31,748 (June 20, 1996). This
    twenty-year-old statement, however, does not detract from the
    EPA’s well-reasoned defense of the thirty-day rolling average in
    the CISWI Rule.
    133
    averaging—long-term or otherwise—to gauge MACT-floor
    compliance. See 
    id.
     And even if the Environmental
    Petitioners had directed us to a real about-face, the EPA’s
    justification for allowing the thirty-day rolling average
    convinces us that any change was not arbitrary.
    J. FUEL-COMBUSTION-BASED SUBCATEGORIES
    Section 7412 provides that the EPA may distinguish
    among “classes, types, and sizes” of sources when
    establishing emission standards. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c), (d)(1).
    Under this authority, the EPA created subcategories of major
    source boilers based on the fuel the boiler was designed to
    burn. 2013 Major Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,144. The
    Environmental Petitioners challenge this decision on three
    grounds: First, they claim that the text of the statute
    forecloses the EPA from creating such subcategories. Next,
    they argue that the EPA’s subcategories are arbitrary because
    they permit a boiler to switch subcategories from year to year.
    Finally, they contend that the EPA’s action was arbitrary
    because the Agency failed to demonstrate with substantial
    evidence that burning a different fuel alters the boiler’s class,
    type, or size.
    These arguments fail. Section 7412(d) gives the EPA
    discretion to create subcategories based on boiler type, and
    nothing in the statute forecloses the Agency from doing so
    based on the type of fuel a boiler was designed to burn. Nor
    was the EPA’s decision to create such subcategories arbitrary
    and capricious. The Agency considered the relevant factors in
    coming to a reasoned decision that the type of fuel a boiler is
    designed to burn impacts the feasibility of emission standards.
    And, finally, the EPA based its technical judgment on
    sufficient record evidence. As a result, we deny the
    134
    Environmental Petitioners’ challenge to the EPA’s
    subcategorization of major source boilers based on the type of
    fuel the boiler is designed to burn.
    The Environmental Petitioners first claim that the text of
    the CAA forecloses the EPA from creating subcategories of
    “types” of boilers based on the fuel a boiler burns because a
    single boiler may use different fuels over the course of its
    lifetime. This may be true, but the Petitioners never explain
    what it is about the word “type” that bars the EPA from
    regulating a boiler that burns “x” differently from a boiler that
    burns “y.” According to its ordinary meaning, “type” is easily
    broad enough to accommodate changes in boiler
    characteristics from year to year. See OXFORD ENGLISH
    DICTIONARY (2013) (defining “type” as a “general form,
    structure, or character distinguishing a particular kind, group,
    or class of beings or objects”). There is no textual reason then
    to assume that a boiler’s type must be written in stone.
    Nor does our understanding of “type” write it out of the
    statute, as the Petitioners contend. The EPA has done what
    the term plainly encompasses: it has distinguished among
    boilers based on the kind of fuel the boiler burned over the
    last year. It is thus not surprising that we have interpreted a
    similar provision to permit distinctions based on fuel inputs.
    See Sierra Club v. Costle, 
    657 F.2d 298
    , 318-19 (D.C. Cir.
    1981) (holding that the text of 
    42 U.S.C. § 7411
    , which
    allows the EPA to “distinguish among classes, types and
    sizes,” permits distinctions based on variations in the sulfur
    content of coal used by utility plants). Likewise, we conclude
    that section 7412’s undefined and unrestricted use of class,
    type, or size does not foreclose the EPA’s interpretation.
    135
    This court will, as a result, defer to the EPA’s
    interpretation so long as it is reasonable. See, e.g., Sierra
    Club I, 
    353 F.3d at 990
    . And here, it is. The Agency
    explained that boilers vary in their designs depending on the
    type of fuel they burn. 2010 Proposed Major Boilers Rule, 75
    Fed. Reg. at 32,016-17. These differences, according to the
    Agency, affect boiler emissions and the feasibility of emission
    controls. Id. And, because design constraints also restrict a
    boiler’s ability to switch fuels, the Agency concluded that it
    could determine a boiler’s type by looking at the fuel it had
    burned over the previous 12-month period. Id. at 32,014.
    The Environmental Petitioners point to nothing in the record
    that calls into question either of these technical judgments,
    which receive great deference. See NRDC I, 
    489 F.3d at 1375
    . Nor do the Petitioners offer any additional reasons in
    support of their argument that the Agency has ventured
    beyond its authority under the statute. In fact, the EPA’s
    reasoning from the emissions data is consistent with the very
    existence of a subcategorization authority because the grant of
    this authority implicitly acknowledges that the EPA may need
    to set different emission standards within a category of major
    sources based on what is achievable for a subset of those
    sources. Because the statutory text readily encompasses the
    EPA’s interpretation for the reasons explained above, and
    because the Environmental Petitioners offer no additional
    argument as to why the EPA’s interpretation was
    unreasonable, we reject the Petitioners’ Chevron challenge to
    the EPA’s interpretation of its subcategorization authority.
    The Environmental Petitioners nevertheless claim that the
    EPA’s subcategories are arbitrary because a boiler is not of a
    different type when it can be a boiler “designed to burn coal”
    one year, and a boiler “designed to burn biomass” the next.
    But this argument fails for the same reasons as the Chevron
    136
    argument we just rejected. The fact that boilers may switch
    from one type to another over time does not, alone, render a
    subcategorization arbitrary. With no discernable basis to find
    the EPA’s choice here questionable, much less arbitrary, we
    reject this argument too.
    Finally, the Environmental Petitioners contend that the
    Agency failed to demonstrate with sufficient evidence, rather
    than mere assertions, that burning a different fuel makes the
    boiler a different class, type, or size. The Petitioners largely
    fail to develop this argument and, regardless, the EPA easily
    met its burden. The EPA based its decision on documented
    emissions data, several reports provided by the National
    Energy Technology Laboratory on boiler operations, and
    operating manuals provided by boiler manufacturers. See,
    e.g., Summary of Public Comments and Responses for
    National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for
    Major Sources: Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional
    Boilers and Process Heaters, EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058-
    3511-A1 (Dec. 2012), at 558-63. These sources support the
    EPA’s decision to distinguish boilers based on the type of fuel
    they are designed to burn and the Agency’s conclusion that
    boilers designed for one fuel type are unlikely to use another
    fuel type. 
    Id.
     The Petitioners present no contrary evidence,
    nor do they attack the validity or accuracy of the data that the
    EPA relied upon. We thus find no merit in the Petitioners’
    various challenges to the EPA’s decision to subcategorize
    major boilers based on the fuel the boiler is designed to burn.
    K. “UNITS THAT BEGIN COMBUSTING SOLID WASTE”
    AS “EXISTING” SOURCES
    Section 7429(a)(2) distinguishes between “existing” and
    “new” CISWI units. The former must comply with floors set
    137
    at the “average emissions limitation achieved by the best
    performing 12 percent of units” and the latter must comply
    with stricter floors set at the level achieved by “the best
    controlled similar unit.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7429
    (a)(2). “Modified”
    units, defined as units “at which modifications have occurred”
    that either experience changes that cost more than 50 per cent
    of the original construction price or result in increased
    emissions, see 
    id.
     § 7429(g)(3), must be treated as “new,” see
    id. § 7429(g)(2).
    The preamble to the 2011 CISWI Rule states, “[u]nits
    that begin combusting solid waste are considered existing
    sources.”       76 Fed. Reg. at 15,714 (emphasis added).
    Commentators objected that this blanket statement
    contravened the Act’s plain terms, which mandate that the
    EPA treat such sources as “new,” not “existing,” if they meet
    the section 7429(g)(3) requirements. In its subsequent 2011
    Proposed CISWI Rule on Reconsideration, the EPA refined
    its position: “An existing source will not be considered a new
    source solely due to a combustion material switch. Assuming
    new source applicability is not triggered, existing sources that
    change fuels or materials are considered existing
    sources . . . .” 76 Fed. Reg. at 80,459.
    The Environmental Petitioners argue that the EPA’s
    broad statement in the 2011 CISWI Rule indicates that it
    impermissibly changed its treatment of “modified sources” in
    contravention of the CAA. The EPA, however, agrees that
    any CISWI unit fitting the statutory criteria for a modified
    source must comply with new-unit MACT levels, not
    existing-unit MACT levels. See 42 U.S.C § 7429(g)(2). It
    also recognizes that its categorical statement in the 2011
    CISWI Rule “may have been imprecise” and, in any event, it
    138
    argues that the Environmental Petitioners have taken its
    statement out of context. See No. 11-1125 EPA Br. 73.
    We agree with the Agency. The EPA’s later statement
    made clear that it intended to treat “sources that change fuels
    or materials” as “existing sources” unless “new source
    applicability,” as mandated by the Act, is “triggered.” See
    2011 Proposed CISWI Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 80,459. Moreover, the Agency provided its more precise
    statement while discussing specifically what constitutes a
    “modification” for the CISWI Rule. See id. (“An existing
    source will not be considered a new source solely due to a
    combustion material switch.”).          It made its earlier,
    “imprecise” comment, in contrast, while describing when a
    fuel change could mean the difference between regulation
    under section 7412 or section 7429. See 2011 CISWI Rule,
    76 Fed. Reg. at 15,714. Convinced that the EPA has not
    impermissibly changed the statutory definition of “modified”
    CISWI, we reject the Petitioners’ challenge.
    L. EXCLUSION OF “TEMPORARY” BOILERS FROM AREA
    BOILERS RULE
    In the final 2013 Area Boilers Rule, the EPA excluded
    “temporary boilers” from regulation under section 7412. See
    78 Fed. Reg. at 7,491. The Rule defined “temporary boilers”
    as “any gaseous or liquid fuel boiler that is designed to, and is
    capable of, being carried or moved from one location to
    another by means of, for example, wheels, skids, carrying
    handles, dollies, trailers, or platforms.” Id. Moreover, a
    boiler is not a temporary boiler if any of the following apply:
    139
    (1)   The equipment is attached to a foundation.
    (2)   The boiler or a replacement remains at a
    location within the facility and performs the
    same or similar function for more than 12
    consecutive months, unless the regulatory
    agency approves an extension. An extension
    may be granted by the regulatory agency
    upon petition by the owner or operator of a
    unit specifying the basis for such a request.
    Any temporary boiler that replaces a
    temporary boiler at a location within the
    facility and performs the same or similar
    function will be included in calculating the
    consecutive time period unless there is a gap
    in operation of 12 months or more.
    (3)   The equipment is located at a seasonal
    facility and operates during the full annual
    operating period of the seasonal facility,
    remains at the facility for at least 2 years, and
    operates at that facility for at least 3 months
    of each year.
    (4)   The equipment is moved from one location
    to another within the facility but continues to
    perform the same or similar function and
    serve the same electricity, steam, and/or hot
    water system in an attempt to circumvent the
    residence time requirements of this
    definition.
    2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,491-92.
    140
    Environmental Petitioners challenge this exclusion as a
    violation of the EPA’s obligations under the CAA to regulate
    all boilers listed under section 7412. By its own terms, the
    2011 Area Boilers Rule “applies to all existing and new
    industrial boilers, institutional boilers, and commercial boilers
    located at area sources. Boiler means an enclosed combustion
    device having the primary purpose of recovering thermal
    energy in the form of steam or hot water.” 76 Fed. Reg. at
    15,557; see also 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,554 (“EPA is
    promulgating national emission standards for control of
    hazardous air pollutants from two area source categories:
    Industrial boilers and commercial and institutional boilers.”).
    Environmental Petitioners claim the general term “boiler”
    necessarily encompasses temporary boilers: “[T]he category
    of ‘boilers’ plainly includes temporary boilers, just as the
    category of ‘courts’ includes federal courts, or the category of
    ‘dogs’ includes brown dogs.” No. 11-1141, Envtl. Pet’rs’
    Reply Br. 7. According to Petitioners, then, sections 7412(c)
    and 7412(d) of the CAA require the EPA to issue emission
    standards for temporary boilers as well as “permanent”
    boilers. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c)(2) (“For the categories and
    subcategories            the          Administrator         lists,
    the Administrator shall establish emission standards . . . .”);
    
    id.
     § 7412(d)(1) (“The Administrator shall promulgate
    regulations establishing emission standards for each category
    or subcategory of major sources and area sources of
    hazardous air pollutants listed for regulation . . . .”).
    To the extent Environmental Petitioners challenge as
    unreasonable the EPA’s justifications for declining to set
    emission standards for temporary boilers, they cannot prevail.
    “Under       arbitrary-and-capricious     review,      EPA’s
    determinations are presumptively valid provided [they] meet[]
    a minimum rationality standard.” Nat’l Ass’n for Surface
    141
    Finishing, 795 F.3d at 7 (internal quotation marks omitted).
    So the question is whether the EPA offered a sufficiently
    rational explanation for its exclusion of temporary boilers.
    The EPA has done so here. First, contrary to Petitioners’
    claims, temporary boilers were never considered an
    inexorable part of the “industrial boiler” category section
    7412 requires the EPA to regulate. While the EPA only
    listed generic area source categories—“industrial boilers” and
    “institutional/commercial boilers”—in its 1999 rulemaking, it
    has since refined these broad categories pursuant to its
    statutory authority. See National Air Toxics Program: The
    Integrated Urban Strategy, 
    64 Fed. Reg. 38,706
    , 38,721 tbl.2
    (July 19, 1999). In doing so, the EPA excluded several other
    subgroups of boilers that might otherwise be read as falling
    under one of the general boiler categories. See, e.g., 2013
    Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,492 (excluding boilers
    already regulated by other MACT standards); 2011 Proposed
    Area Boilers Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed. Reg. at 80,539
    (excluding electric and residential boilers as not part of either
    source category). The EPA’s clarification that temporary
    boilers were never considered part of the “industrial boilers”
    category was simply another refinement, as contemplated by
    the statute. See 42 U.S.C § 7412(e)(4) (precluding judicial
    review until the EPA has issued its final emission standards
    for a category or subcategory).
    Second, as both the EPA and Industry Intervenors note,
    the parallel rule for major source boilers has always explicitly
    excluded temporary boilers from its “industrial boiler”
    categorization. See 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.7491
    (j). The EPA thus
    considered commenters’ requests to add a similar clarification
    to the 2013 Area Boilers Rule and reasonably decided to do
    so.    See, e.g., American Forest & Paper Association,
    Comments on Proposed Area Source Rule (AF&PA
    142
    Comments), EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0790-1939 (Aug. 23,
    2010), at 58 (No. 11-1141 J.A. 389). EPA explained this
    choice in its proposed rule:
    Owners and operators of regulated sources
    have pointed out that temporary boilers are
    small (less than 10 MMBtu/hr heat input) and
    are generally owned and operated by
    contractors, rather than the facility. As a
    result, they are not included in the facility’s
    operating permits because state and federal
    CAA operating permit programs have
    historically   classified    such      units    as
    insignificant sources.      The owners and
    operators also noted that compliance with the
    work practice requirements applicable to these
    small boilers would be complicated because
    they are typically located on site for less than a
    year, but would be subject to biennial
    management practice requirements. We agree
    that the source category identified in subpart
    JJJJJJ should specifically exclude these
    temporary boilers because they have been
    considered insignificant sources, and were not
    included in the EPA’s analysis of the source
    category.
    2011 Proposed Area Boilers Rule on Reconsideration, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 80,535.
    The unique nature of temporary boilers favors their
    exclusion. These boilers tend to be rented for use on a
    temporary basis and come in “shop-fabricated package
    designs.” AF&PA Comments, at 58 (No. 11-1141 J.A. 389).
    143
    Temporary boilers also “typically only fire gas or liquid fossil
    fuels (natural gas or distillate oil) which may be cleaner than
    the boiler(s) they are temporarily replacing. In addition, these
    units often do not have exhaust stacks that meet EPA Method
    1 requirements for application of test methods.”               Id.
    Regardless, during the rulemaking, Environmental Petitioners
    argued the EPA had “not explained why this is a distinction
    that justifies differential treatment, let alone an exemption.”
    See Area Boilers Rule—Responses to Comments, at 65. The
    EPA responded by explaining that rather than having “created
    a category or subcategory of ‘temporary boilers’ and then
    exempted them from the standards,” the Agency never
    “intend[ed] to regulate temporary boilers under the area
    source standards” in the first place. See id. The EPA further
    noted that, “[b]y their nature of being temporary, these boilers
    operate in place of another non-temporary boiler while that
    boiler is being constructed, replaced or repaired, in which
    case we counted the non-temporary boiler as the one being
    regulated.” Id. Finally, the Agency concluded regulation of
    temporary boilers was not necessary to meet its statutory
    emission requirements under sections 7412(c)(6) and
    7412(c)(3) of the CAA. Id. In its final rule, the EPA
    reiterated this explanation: “Similar to residential boilers, we
    did not intend to regulate temporary boilers under the area
    source standards because they are not part of either the
    industrial      boiler      source      category      or      the
    commercial/institutional boiler source category.” 2013 Area
    Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,491. The final regulation also
    included a detailed explanation of how EPA decided on its
    limited definition of “temporary boilers.” See id. at 7,499.
    The evidence before the Agency supported its decision to
    exclude temporary boilers. Indeed, the EPA “cogently
    explain[ed]” why it exercised its discretion in this manner,
    144
    such that this court concludes the Agency’s choice “was the
    product of reasoned decision making.” U.S. Telecom Ass’n v.
    FCC, 
    227 F.3d 450
    , 460 (D.C. Cir. 2000). We therefore
    uphold the EPA’s exclusion of temporary boilers from
    regulation of area source boilers.
    M. WORK-PRACTICE STANDARDS FOR COAL-FIRED
    BOILERS
    When setting emission limits for area sources, the EPA
    enjoys greater discretion than when setting limits for major
    sources. With respect to major sources, the EPA has to
    promulgate MACT standards, see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2),
    whereas for area sources the EPA can generally promulgate
    more lenient GACT standards, see 
    id.
     § 7412(d)(5). The
    CAA, however, singles out seven particularly hazardous
    pollutants that require stricter regulatory standards, even for
    area sources.41 Under section 7412(c)(6), the EPA must “list
    categories and subcategories of sources assuring that sources
    accounting for not less than 90 per centum of the aggregate
    emissions of each such pollutant” are regulated. The EPA
    listed a variety of area sources under section 7412(c)(6) in its
    1998 rulemaking based on their Hg and POM emissions. See
    Proposed 2010 Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,898;
    Source Category Listing for Section 112(d)(2) Rulemaking
    Pursuant to Section 112(c)(6) Requirements, 
    63 Fed. Reg. 17,838
    , 17,849-50 (Apr. 10, 1998).            But the Agency
    subsequently refined that list and ultimately concluded only
    41
    These seven pollutants are: (i) alkylated lead compounds,
    (ii) polycyclic organic matter (POM), (iii) hexachlorobenzene, (iv)
    mercury (Hg), (v) polychlorinated biphenyls, (vi) 2,3,7,8-
    tetrachlorodibenzofurans, and (vii) 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-
    dioxin. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (c)(6).
    145
    coal-fired area boilers needed to be listed to meet the statute’s
    90 per cent emissions threshold. See 2010 Proposed Area
    Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,898; see also No. 11-1141
    EPA Br. 14 (“[T]he coal-fired subcategory is responsible for
    over 82 percent of the mercury emissions from the [area
    source] category in the inventory, even though it represents
    only 2 percent of the boilers in the category.”).
    Under section 7412(c)(6), the EPA was therefore
    required to set either a MACT limit under section 7412(d)(2),
    a health threshold under section 7412(d)(4), or a work-
    practice standard under section 7412(h) for all coal-fired
    boilers. The Agency chose to set MACT numerical emission
    limits for Hg and CO42 at new and existing large coal-fired
    boilers. 2013 Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,488.
    However, the EPA found it “technologically and
    economically impracticable to apply [its] measurement
    methodology to . . . small sources,” and so it chose to institute
    a work-practice standard43 for all new and existing small coal-
    fired boilers. Id. at 7,488-89. This work-practice standard
    requires small coal-fired units to be periodically tuned up but
    does not impose any numeric emission limit. See id. The
    EPA similarly decided that, for large coal-fired boilers
    undergoing a startup or a shutdown, a work-practice
    standard—rather than a numeric emission standard—was
    42
    Because the EPA chose to regulate POM emissions
    indirectly—by using CO emissions as a surrogate—the standards it
    set under section 7412(c)(6) are for CO rather than POM. See 2013
    Area Boilers Rule, 78 Fed. Reg. at 7,488, 7,503.
    43
    In their brief, Environmental Petitioners alternate between
    the terms “operational standards” and “work-practice standards,”
    both of which fall under section 7412(d)(2)(D). This opinion will
    use “work-practice standards” for simplicity.
    146
    most practicable. See id. at 7,518 tbl.2 (requiring owners of
    large “[e]xisting or new coal-fired” boilers to “[m]inimize the
    boiler’s startup and shutdown periods and conduct startups
    and shutdowns according to the manufacturer’s recommended
    procedures”).
    Environmental Petitioners challenge the EPA’s decision
    to employ work-practice standards as a violation of
    7412(d)(2)’s mandate to achieve the “maximum degree of
    reduction in emissions.” We examine Petitioner’s statutory
    argument step-by-step, as it hinges on the interplay between
    several statutory provisions. First, section 7412(c)(6)—which
    governs regulation of Hg and POM emissions—requires the
    Administrator to regulate sources of these pollutants under
    either section 7412(d)(2) or (d)(4). Section 7412(d)(4) allows
    the Administrator to establish health-based emission
    standards; it is not implicated here. Instead, the EPA decided
    to regulate coal-fired boilers under section 7412(d)(2).
    Section 7412(d)(2) instructs the Administrator to achieve “the
    maximum degree of reduction in emissions of the hazardous
    air pollutants . . . that the Administrator, taking into
    consideration the cost of achieving such emissions reduction,
    and any non-air quality health and environmental impacts and
    energy requirements, determines is achievable for new or
    existing sources.” The Administrator is authorized to use
    several means to achieve this reduction including
    implementing “design, equipment, work practice, or
    operational standards . . . as provided in [section 7412(h)].”
    
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2)(D). Section 7412(h)(1) states: “[I]f it
    is not feasible in the judgment of the Administrator to
    prescribe or enforce an emission standard for control of a
    [pollutant], the Administrator may, in lieu thereof, promulgate
    a . . . work-practice    standard . . . ,   which      in   the
    Administrator’s judgment is consistent with the provisions of
    147
    subsection (d) or (f) of this section.” Petitioners do not
    dispute the EPA’s ability to set work-practice standards here;
    they instead focus on section 7412(h)’s requirement that any
    such standards be “consistent with” subsection (d)—which
    requires the “maximum degree of reduction in emissions.”
    According to Petitioners, the EPA’s decision to set these
    particular work-practice standards fails at both Chevron steps.
    With respect to Chevron step 1, Petitioners argue the
    “EPA does not claim the operational standards [for coal-fired
    boilers] are ‘consistent with the provisions of subsection (d)
    or (f)’ of § 7412.” No. 11-1141 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 33. In other
    words, because these work-practice standards “do not even
    purport” to be consistent with section 7412(d)’s mandate to
    maximize reduction of emissions, “they are unlawful under
    Chevron step one.” Id. Petitioners point to the EPA’s
    specific findings to support this claim: for large coal-fired
    boilers, the EPA found that mercury emissions could be
    reduced by 75 to 82 per cent through the use of a fabric filter.
    Id. But, according to Petitioners, the “EPA admits the tune-
    up program [for small coal-fired boilers] will reduce
    emissions by only one percent.” Id. And, with respect to
    large coal-fired boilers undergoing startup or shutdown,
    Petitioners argue the “EPA does not claim that ‘following the
    manufacturer’s recommended procedures’ during startup and
    shutdown will reduce emissions at all.” Id.
    At the familiar Chevron step 1, the court must “first
    examine the statute de novo, employing traditional tools of
    statutory construction.” Nat’l Ass’n of Clean Air Agencies,
    489 F.3d at 1228 (internal quotation marks omitted). If the
    Congress’s intent is clear, then the Agency’s interpretation is
    afforded no deference, and the court “must give effect to the
    unambiguously expressed intent of Congress.” Id.
    148
    In this case, Environmental Petitioners place too much
    emphasis on certain snippets of the statute without examining
    the larger context. For one, Petitioners seem to argue that the
    EPA must adopt work-practice standards that result in the
    maximum possible reduction of emissions, without taking into
    account any other considerations. But section 7412(d)(2)
    itself belies this claim: it says the EPA must promulgate
    standards that require “the maximum degree of reduction in
    emissions . . . that the Administrator, taking into
    consideration the cost of achieving such emission reduction,
    and any non-air quality health and environmental impacts
    and energy requirements, determines is achievable.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2) (emphasis added). This portion of the
    statute explicitly defers to the Administrator’s judgment
    regarding a standard’s “achievability,” even though it directs
    him to consider particular factors in making that assessment.
    Section 7412(h) similarly requires the Administrator to adopt
    a work-practice standard that in his judgment is consistent
    with section 7412(d)(2)’s mandate. We therefore cannot
    accept Petitioners’ suggestion that Congress unambiguously
    required the EPA to adopt standards that result in the
    maximum reduction of emissions that is technologically
    feasible.
    Environmental Petitioners’ challenge to these work-
    practice standards as unreasonable under Chevron step 2 and
    arbitrary under State Farm presents a closer call. With
    respect to Chevron step 2, the court must “uphold an agency’s
    interpretation if it is reasonable.” Ariz. Pub. Serv. Co. v. EPA,
    
    211 F.3d 1280
    , 1287 (D.C. Cir. 2000). And, “even where
    EPA’s construction satisfies Chevron, [the court] still must
    ensure that its action is not otherwise arbitrary and capricious.
    The arbitrary and capricious standard is ‘[h]ighly deferential,’
    and it ‘presumes the validity of agency action.’” Nat’l Ass’n
    149
    of Clean Air Agencies, 489 F.3d at 1228 (citations omitted).
    As long as an agency has “considered the relevant factors and
    articulated ‘a rational connection between the facts found and
    the choice made,’” then its decision must be upheld. Allied
    Local & Reg’l Mfrs. Caucus, 215 F.3d at 68.
    Petitioners mount both a “facial” and a substantive
    challenge to the EPA’s rationale for adopting work-practice
    standards. First, Petitioners claim the EPA’s decision is
    arbitrary because it fails “to reconcile its approach with the
    statutory requirement [of section 7412(d)(2)].” No. 11-1141
    Envtl. Pet’rs’ Br. 34. Specifically, Petitioners insist the EPA
    must explicitly state somewhere that these particular work-
    practice standards are “consistent” with section 7412(d)(2).
    See id. at 33-34. Otherwise, Petitioners contend, the Court
    must simply “assume that the Agency heeded § 7412(h)’s
    ‘consistent with’ requirement, notwithstanding the EPA’s
    failure to acknowledge and apply that requirement in the
    record.” No. 11-1141 Envtl. Pet’rs’ Reply Br. 10.
    The Agency responds that, “by identifying the tune-up
    and startup/shutdown requirements as ‘work practices,’ [it] is
    stating that those standards are issued under section 7412(h)
    and are consistent with the requirements of section 7412(d)
    (i.e., MACT).” No. 11-1141, EPA Br. 71. The EPA did
    acknowledge it has an obligation to maximize emission
    reductions under section 7412(d)(2) when promulgating
    work-practice standards. See 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,568 (“CAA section 112(h) authorizes the
    Administrator to promulgate [a work-practice standard]
    consistent with the provisions of CAA sections 112(d) or
    (f) . . . .”). However, Petitioners are correct that the Agency
    did not make a finding on the record that these work-practice
    150
    standards would achieve the highest emissions reduction
    possible.
    But the lack of an explicit statement does not
    automatically condemn this portion of the rule. See Bowman,
    419 U.S. at 286 (“[W]e will uphold a decision of less than
    ideal clarity if the agency’s path may reasonably be
    discerned.”). The Petitioners offer no support for their
    contention that the EPA must make an express finding that its
    standards are “consistent” with section 7412(d)(2). Nor does
    our conclusion requires us to merely “assume” that the
    Agency’s actions comport with section 7412(d)(2). Instead,
    as we usually do when presented with such arguments, we
    review the rulemaking record to determine whether the
    justifications the EPA offered for adopting these work
    practices standards were permissible.
    1. Small Coal-Fired Boilers
    First, with respect to small coal-fired boilers, the EPA
    determined that a biennial tune-up requirement would best
    comply with section 7412(h)’s requirements. As a starting
    point, the EPA surveyed a sample of state regulations
    mandating various work-practice standards for small coal-
    fired boilers; the Agency found that ten states required tune-
    ups, two required periodic inspections, one required operator
    training, and one required operation in accordance with
    manufacturer specifications. 2011 Area Boilers Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,573-74. The EPA thus concluded that tune-ups
    were the most typical work-practice standard employed for
    this type of boiler. Id. The Agency also found that regular
    tune-ups could lower HAP emissions by increasing the
    efficiency of small coal-fired boilers. See id. at 15,575 (“A
    tune-up performed to the manufacturer’s specifications would
    151
    ensure the highest energy efficiency and reduce fuel usage,
    which will ultimately reduce HAP emissions.”); see also 2010
    Proposed Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at 31,908 (“A
    boiler tune-up provides potential savings from energy
    efficiency improvements and pollution prevention. . . . In
    addition, the cost of a boiler tune-up appears minimal
    compared to the cost for testing and monitoring to
    demonstrate compliance with an emission limit.”).44
    The EPA elected to implement a work-practice standard
    because the typical method used to measure emissions of Hg
    and CO could not be used to sample emissions from stacks
    with small diameters (less than 12 inches). See 2011 Area
    Boilers Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 15,568. Because many small
    coal-fired boilers have stacks with diameters below 12
    inches—and because many of these boilers “do not currently
    have sampling ports or a platform for accessing the exhaust
    stack”—the Agency concluded the cost of testing and
    monitoring these small boilers would “present an excessive
    burden for smaller sources.” Id. The Agency’s consideration
    of cost effectiveness is particularly appropriate in this context
    because the “vast majority” of area source boilers are
    “generally owned and operated by small entities,” which
    would be disproportionately burdened by a numeric emissions
    limit. See Fact Sheet: Final Adjustments to the Air Toxics
    Standards for Industrial, Commercial, and Institutional
    Boilers at Area Source Facilities, 1, 2 (No. 11-1141 J.A. 684-
    44
    The EPA’s discussion of boiler tune-up advantages occurs
    mainly in the context of its decision to select a GACT standard
    rather than any numeric emission standards for certain boilers.
    Environmental Petitioners challenge this decision on similar
    grounds, see supra § IV.H. But the benefits of periodic tune-ups
    also apply to the coal-fired boilers at issue here.
    152
    85); see also 2010 Proposed Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg.
    at 31,906 (“The results of the analysis indicate that total
    compliance costs exceed 3 percent (and can reach as high as
    19 percent) of the average firm revenues for 79 percent of the
    facilities.”).
    Environmental Petitioners counter that while tune-ups
    may minimally reduce HAP emissions, they do not maximize
    this reduction per section 7412(d)(2)’s mandate.45 But
    Petitioners view section 7412(d) too myopically; under that
    section, the Administrator is empowered to adopt standards
    that “tak[e] into consideration the cost of achieving such
    emission reduction.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7412
    (d)(2). The EPA here
    examined the costs of imposing a numeric emission standard
    on small coal-fired boilers and found that option “not
    feasible” due to high costs and monitoring difficulties,
    considerations equally permissible under section 7412(d)(2).
    Petitioners argue that requiring the use of a fabric filter would
    have resulted in greater reductions, but they are unable to
    point to any small coal-fired boiler that currently uses such a
    filter. See 2010 Proposed Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at
    31,906 (“For existing [small] area source boilers, the only
    work practice being used that potentially controls mercury
    45
    Petitioners also point to a comment they made in the record
    arguing that a tune-up standard “would not achieve emission
    reductions that are consistent with the definition of MACT,” and
    urge that the EPA never addressed these concerns. See National
    Association of Clean Air Agencies, Comments on EPA Proposals
    for Regulation of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS), EPA-HQ-
    OAR-2006-0790, EPA-HQ-OAR-2002-0058, EPA-HQ-OAR-
    2003-0119 (Aug. 23, 2010), at 21-22 (No. 11-1141 J.A. 417-18).
    But this comment was specifically addressed to gas-fired boilers,
    and it is inapposite to the EPA’s consideration of standards for
    coal-fired boilers.
    153
    and POM emissions is a boiler tune-up.”). Evidence before
    the agency in fact indicated that the best performing small
    coal boilers for POM emission use no add-on controls. See
    Memorandum from Amanda Singleton & Brandon Long,
    Eastern Research Group, to Jim Eddinger, EPA
    (MACT/GACT Mem.), App. E-2a (No. 11-1141 J.A. 540). It
    was therefore reasonable for the EPA, when considering
    costs, to conclude that biennial tune-ups would allow for the
    maximum “achievable” reduction in emissions.
    Petitioners’ most compelling argument involves the
    EPA’s lack of data on small coal-fired boilers. As they point
    out, the EPA’s summary of its 2008 combustion survey makes
    no mention of any small coal-fired boilers.                 See
    MACT/GACT Mem., App. D-3, tbl.1 (No. 11-1141 J.A. 523).
    And the EPA never directly addressed whether control
    technologies, such as fabric filters, were useable by small
    boilers; “[t]he only claim EPA made in the record is that tune-
    ups are the most effective option that [small] coal-fired
    boilers . . . are currently using, not that tune-ups yield the
    maximum reduction ‘achievable.’” No. 11-1141 Envtl.
    Pet’rs’ Reply Br. 11. In Sierra Club II, this court agreed with
    Sierra Club’s challenge to the EPA’s use of a work-practice
    standard instead of an emission floor because the “EPA never
    determined that measuring emissions from ceramics kilns was
    impracticable; it determined only that it lacked emissions data
    from ceramics kilns. EPA thus had no basis under section
    7412(h) for using work practice standards.” 
    479 F.3d at 884
    .
    That context is somewhat distinguishable, given that the
    statute there explicitly required the EPA to make a
    “feasibility” finding (as discussed above), but it could be
    argued that the EPA here lacked the data to determine
    whether tune-ups were “consistent with” section 7412(d)(2).
    154
    Ultimately, though, the high level of deference afforded
    the EPA counsels in favor of upholding this work-practice
    standard. Although the EPA did not explicitly state that tune-
    ups were the best option to reduce emissions while still
    “considering costs,” this finding can be inferred from the
    record as a whole. For instance, the EPA found that “[n]one
    of the States for which we have an inventory have an
    applicable emissions limit” for small coal-fired boilers, except
    New Jersey, which actually has tune-ups as its work-practice
    standard. 2010 Proposed Area Boilers Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. at
    31,909. Based on these findings, it can reasonably be inferred
    that—given the prevalence of these small boilers—at least a
    few would be using a control technology if that were
    technologically or economically feasible. Because numeric
    emissions cannot easily be measured from these smaller
    sources and the costs of outfitting them with such technology
    would be cost prohibitive, the EPA’s choice of tune-ups as the
    work-practice standard is sufficiently reasonable to uphold
    under both Chevron step 2 and State Farm. The Agency’s
    choice is consistent with section 7412(h)’s “feasibility”
    requirement and with section 7412(d)(2)’s instruction to
    maximize emission reductions while also considering costs.
    2. Large Coal-Fired Boilers Undergoing Startup or
    Shutdown
    The record for large coal-fired boilers undergoing startup
    or shutdown is less extensive but again the EPA’s
    determination is reasonable. While large coal-fired boilers
    are required to meet numeric emission standards during
    “normal” operations, the EPA adopted a work-practice
    standard for the temporary periods of startup and shutdown.
    See 
    40 C.F.R. § 63.11214
     (“[M]inimize the boiler’s startup
    and shutdown periods following the manufacturer’s
    155
    recommended procedures, if available. If manufacturer’s
    recommended procedures are not available, you must follow
    recommended procedures for a unit of similar design for
    which manufacturer’s recommended procedures are
    available.”). Environmental Petitioners contend that the EPA
    never stated this practice would reduce emissions at all, and
    therefore it has not met its burden under section 7412(d)(2).
    But we have already explained that no express finding of
    consistency with section 7412(d)(2) need be made. Here, the
    record suggests that the work-practice standard the Agency
    chose would reduce emissions, and we therefore can
    “reasonably [] discern[]” the Agency’s path. Bowman, 419
    U.S. at 286. Specifically, the EPA explained that requiring
    boilers to operate in startup and shutdown mode for
    “sufficient time to conduct the required test runs [to impose
    numeric standards] could result in higher emissions than
    would otherwise occur.” 2011 Major Boilers Rule, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 15,642. Industry stakeholders also pointed out that “it
    is very common . . . for certain control devices to be out of
    operation during periods of start-up due to the nature of the
    equipment.” See American Chemistry Council, Comments
    on EPA’s Proposed Rule for National Emission Standards for
    Hazardous Air Pollutants for Area Sources, EPA-HQ-OAR-
    2006-0790 (Aug. 23, 2010), at 31 (No. 11-1141 J.A. 386).
    Because the control technology is temporarily offline, “it is
    likely that emissions will exceed the standards proposed
    [during that time period].” Id. A work-practice standard that
    requires facilities to minimize the time their boilers spend in
    startup or shutdown thus seems calculated to maximally
    reduce emissions during those periods—and Petitioners fail to
    provide any viable alternative. We therefore conclude the
    EPA’s decision to adopt these work-practice standards for
    large coal-fired boilers during startup and shutdown was
    reasonable.
    156
    V. CONCLUSION
    For the foregoing reasons, we grant the petitions in part
    and deny them in part. Specifically, we vacate the MACT
    standards for all major boiler subcategories that would have
    been affected had the EPA considered all sources included in
    the subcategories, as explained at supra § IV.B.          We
    also remand, without vacatur, to the EPA to: (1) adequately
    explain how CO acts as a reasonable surrogate for non-
    dioxin/furan organic HAPs; (2) set emission standards for
    cyclonic burn barrels; (3) determine whether burn-off ovens,
    soil treatment units, and space heaters are CISWI units and, if
    so, to set standards for those types of units; (4) adequately
    explain the exclusion of synthetic boilers from Title V’s
    permitting requirements; and (5) adequately explain the
    choice of GACT standards over MACT standards for non-Hg
    metals.
    So ordered.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 11-1108

Citation Numbers: 424 U.S. App. D.C. 319, 830 F.3d 579

Filed Date: 7/29/2016

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 1/12/2023

Authorities (42)

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united-states-telecom-associationpetitioners-v-federal-communications , 227 F.3d 450 ( 2000 )

American Coke & Coal Chemicals Institute v. Environmental ... , 452 F.3d 930 ( 2006 )

Ethyl Corporation v. Environmental Protection Agency, ... , 51 F.3d 1053 ( 1995 )

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City of Waukesha v. Environmental Protection Agency , 320 F.3d 228 ( 2003 )

natural-resources-defense-council-sierra-club-environmental-integrity , 489 F.3d 1250 ( 2007 )

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Bell Atl Tele Cos v. FCC , 131 F.3d 1044 ( 1997 )

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Sierra Club v. United States Environmental Protection Agency , 167 F.3d 658 ( 1999 )

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Mossville Env Actn v. EPA , 370 F.3d 1232 ( 2004 )

allied-signal-inc-v-us-nuclear-regulatory-commission-and-the-united , 988 F.2d 146 ( 1993 )

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