Chaplaincy of Full Gospel Churches v. United States Navy ( 2012 )


Menu:
  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued September 10, 2012         Decided November 2, 2012
    No. 12-5027
    IN RE: NAVY CHAPLAINCY,
    CHAPLAINCY OF FULL GOSPEL CHURCHES, ET AL.,
    APPELLANTS
    v.
    UNITED STATES NAVY, ET AL.,
    APPELLEES
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:07-mc-00269)
    Arthur A. Schulcz, Sr. argued the cause and filed the
    briefs for appellant.
    Lewis Yelin, Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice,
    argued the cause for appellees. With him on the brief were
    Stuart F. Delery, Acting Assistant Attorney General, Ronald
    C. Machen Jr., U.S. Attorney, and Marleigh D. Dover,
    Attorney.
    Before: HENDERSON, ROGERS, and TATEL, Circuit
    Judges.
    2
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge TATEL.
    TATEL, Circuit Judge: In this case, military chaplains, all
    “non-liturgical Protestants,” allege that the Navy
    systematically discriminates against members of their
    religious denominations in the awarding of promotions in
    violation of “[t]he clearest command of the Establishment
    Clause . . . that one religious denomination cannot be
    officially preferred over another.” Larson v. Valente, 
    456 U.S. 228
    , 244 (1982). The district court denied plaintiffs’ motion
    for a preliminary injunction, concluding that they lacked
    Article III standing and, alternatively, were unlikely to
    succeed on the merits of their claims. For the reasons set forth
    in this opinion, we reverse the district court’s determination
    that plaintiffs lack Article III standing and remand for further
    factual findings regarding their likelihood of success on the
    merits.
    I.
    The Navy maintains a Chaplain Corps of commissioned
    Naval officers who have the “responsibility . . . to provide for
    the free exercise of religion” for all members of the Navy and
    their families. In re England, 
    375 F.3d 1169
    , 1171 (D.C. Cir.
    2004) (internal quotation marks omitted). Chaplains perform a
    “unique” role, serving both “as clergy or . . . professional
    representative[s] of a particular religious denomination and as
    . . . commissioned naval officer[s].” 
    Id.
     (internal quotation
    marks omitted). The Navy divides the Chaplain Corps into
    four “faith groups”: Catholic, liturgical Protestant, non-
    liturgical Protestant, and Special Worship. 
    Id. at 1172
    .
    Plaintiffs, current and former military chaplains, are “non-
    liturgical Protestants.” Non-liturgical Protestants belong to
    Protestant denominations—including Baptist, Evangelical,
    Pentecostal, and Charismatic—that follow no formal liturgy
    3
    in worship services and baptize at the “age of reason” rather
    than at infancy. In re Navy Chaplaincy, 
    534 F.3d 756
    , 759
    (D.C. Cir. 2008). In order to become a Navy chaplain, an
    individual must have an “ecclesiastical endorsement” from a
    faith group endorsing agency certifying that the individual is
    professionally qualified to represent that faith group within
    the Chaplain Corps. In re England, 
    375 F.3d at
    1171–72. Two
    such endorsing agencies, Chaplaincy of Full Gospel Churches
    and Associated Gospel Churches, are among the plaintiffs in
    this case.
    Like all Navy officers, chaplains are recommended for
    promotion by “selection boards” convened to consider
    whether particular candidates should be promoted to a higher
    rank. 
    Id. at 1172
    . Because selection boards are required by
    statute to include at least one member from the “competitive
    category” being considered for promotion, selection boards
    considering chaplain promotions must have at least one
    chaplain as a member. 
    10 U.S.C. § 612
    (a)(2)(A). By
    instruction of the Secretary of the Navy, chaplain selection
    boards are currently composed of seven members: two
    chaplains and five other officers. SECNAVINST 1401.3A,
    Suppl. ¶ 1.c.(1)(f). Selection boards make initial promotion
    recommendations that are subsequently reviewed by the
    Secretary of the Navy and then submitted to the Secretary of
    Defense for transmittal to the President. 
    10 U.S.C. §§ 618
    (a)(1), (c)(1).
    Plaintiffs contend that Naval selection boards discriminate
    against non-liturgical Protestant chaplains on the basis of
    religious denomination. Relying on statistical analysis by their
    expert and other evidence, they assert that non-liturgical
    Protestant chaplains are promoted to higher ranks at
    significantly lower rates than are liturgical Protestant and
    Catholic chaplains, and that candidates are more likely to be
    4
    recommended for promotion when they share the
    denomination of the chaplains who sit on the selection board.
    Plaintiffs focus on certain “policies, practices, and
    procedures” that they allege “facilitate and allow
    denominational or faith group favoritism.” Appellants’ Br. 7
    (emphasis omitted). Specifically, plaintiffs allege that the
    small size of the selection boards and the practice of voting in
    secret allow promotion decisions to be made on the basis of
    religious bias. Selection board members vote by pressing one
    of five buttons that indicate the degree of confidence the voter
    has in the candidate, ranging from zero to 100. Plaintiffs
    contend that because boards are composed of only seven
    members, a chaplain can essentially veto a candidate by
    voting a “zero” level of confidence, thus significantly
    reducing that candidate’s chances of selection. According to
    plaintiffs, because chaplains can exercise this veto power in
    secret, they are free to select candidates based on their own
    religious conceptions of how ministry should be conducted.
    Plaintiffs also challenge the practice of appointing the Chief
    of Chaplains as president of chaplain selection boards,
    asserting that the Chief’s “role and influence as a decision
    maker in the award of Navy benefits introduces religion into
    the decision and results in denominational favoritism.” Pls.’
    Mem. in Supp. of Mot. for Prelim. Inj. 23. Plaintiffs tell us
    that “the other Armed Services” avoid these problems by
    convening larger selection boards and requiring public voting.
    Appellants’ Br. 60.
    As we understand it, plaintiffs’ claim rests on two distinct
    theories. First, in what we shall call their “denominational
    preference” theory, they assert that selection boards
    discriminate against non-liturgical Protestants in making
    promotion decisions in violation of the Establishment Clause
    and the Fifth Amendment’s equal protection component.
    5
    Second, plaintiffs assert that the Navy, also in violation of the
    Establishment Clause, impermissibly delegates governmental
    authority to religious entities by permitting chaplains to award
    government benefits in the form of promotions without
    effective guarantees that such authority will be exercised in a
    neutral, secular manner.
    The Navy takes issue with both theories. With respect to
    the denominational preference theory, the Navy asserts that
    there is no “factual basis for [plaintiffs’] claims that Navy
    chaplain promotion boards had discriminated against
    plaintiffs in the past or would likely do so in the future.”
    Appellees’ Br. 36. Relying on its own statistical expert, the
    Navy challenges the methodology employed by plaintiffs’
    expert and asserts that its “own evidence establish[es] the
    absence of any religious discrimination by the promotion
    boards.” Appellees’ Br. 35. As to plaintiffs’ second theory,
    the Navy asserts that the authority delegated to chaplains who
    sit on promotion boards is not at all standardless because the
    chaplains “must abide by statutory requirements and Navy
    instructions governing the selection of officers for
    promotion.” Appellees’ Br. 43.
    Plaintiffs filed a motion for a preliminary injunction
    seeking to enjoin the challenged procedures. Denying the
    motion, the district court began by concluding that plaintiffs
    lacked Article III standing, reasoning that their asserted future
    injury was too speculative because it rested on the assumption
    that chaplains sitting on future selection boards would
    “ ‘necessarily favor candidates affiliated with [their] own
    denomination,’ ” an assumption the court found implausible
    given that Naval officers “are presumed to undertake their
    official duties in good faith.” In re Navy Chaplaincy, 
    841 F. Supp. 2d 336
    , 345 (D.D.C. 2012) (citation omitted). The
    district court went on to conclude that even if plaintiffs had
    6
    Article III standing, the balance of the four preliminary
    injunction factors weighed against granting injunctive relief.
    Although the court presumed the existence of irreparable
    harm because plaintiffs had alleged an Establishment Clause
    violation, 
    id. at 347
    , the court found that plaintiffs were
    unlikely to succeed on the merits, 
    id.
     at 345–46, and that the
    balance of equities and the public interest weighed against
    granting preliminary injunctive relief. 
    Id.
     at 347–49. Plaintiffs
    now appeal.
    II.
    We begin with the question of whether we have statutory
    jurisdiction to hear this case. In the district court, the Navy
    argued that the court lacked jurisdiction to consider plaintiffs’
    claims because courts are prohibited by statute from
    reviewing claims based “on the failure of a person to be
    selected for promotion by a promotion board” unless the
    person has first exhausted administrative remedies. 
    10 U.S.C. § 628
    (h)(1). The district court rejected this argument, In re
    Navy Chaplaincy, 841 F. Supp. 2d at 344, and the Navy has
    wisely chosen not to renew it on appeal. As the district court
    explained, jurisdiction is proper because plaintiffs ask us “to
    determine the validity of [a] law, regulation, or policy relating
    to selection boards,” not to review the promotion decisions of
    individual selection boards. Id.; see 
    10 U.S.C. § 628
    (i)(1)
    (“Nothing in this section limits[] the jurisdiction of any court
    of the United States . . . to determine the validity of any law,
    regulation, or policy relating to selection boards.”). We thus
    turn to the question of Article III standing, an issue we review
    de novo. LaRoque v. Holder, 
    650 F.3d 777
    , 785 (D.C. Cir.
    2011).
    “[T]hose who seek to invoke the jurisdiction of the federal
    courts must satisfy the threshold requirement imposed by
    Article III of the Constitution by alleging an actual case or
    7
    controversy.” City of Los Angeles v. Lyons, 
    461 U.S. 95
    , 101
    (1983). To establish constitutional standing, a plaintiff must
    show (1) an injury in fact that is “concrete and particularized”
    and “actual or imminent”; (2) that the injury is “fairly
    traceable” to the defendants’ challenged conduct; and (3) that
    the injury is likely to be “redressed by a favorable decision.”
    Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560–61 (1992)
    (internal quotation marks and alterations omitted). And, as we
    earlier explained in this very litigation, “[i]n reviewing the
    standing question, we must be careful not to decide the
    questions on the merits for or against the plaintiff, and must
    therefore assume that on the merits the plaintiffs would be
    successful in their claims.” In re Navy Chaplaincy, 
    534 F.3d at 760
    .
    Where as here plaintiffs seek “forward-looking injunctive
    . . . relief, past injuries alone are insufficient to establish
    standing.” NB ex rel. Peacock v. District of Columbia, 
    682 F.3d 77
    , 82 (D.C. Cir. 2012) (internal quotation marks
    omitted). Instead, plaintiffs must show that they face an
    imminent threat of future injury. Lyons, 
    461 U.S. at 105
    ; see
    also O’Shea v. Littleton, 
    414 U.S. 488
    , 495–96 (1974). Here,
    plaintiffs contend that they face future injury because they
    will likely suffer discrimination on the basis of their religious
    denomination when they are considered for promotion by
    future selection boards. This assertion of future injury
    depends on two subsidiary premises: that plaintiffs will be
    considered for promotion by future selection boards and that
    selection boards will discriminate against them on the basis of
    their religious denomination.
    The first premise is undisputed. The Navy concedes that
    future selection boards may very well consider the promotion
    of at least some plaintiffs. Appellees’ Br. 19. Thus, this is not
    a situation in which plaintiffs have asserted mere “ ‘some day’
    8
    intentions” to engage in the conduct they claim will cause
    them injury. Lujan, 
    504 U.S. at 564
    ; see also Fair
    Employment Council of Greater Washington, Inc. v. BMC
    Marketing Corp., 
    28 F.3d 1268
    , 1273–74 (D.C. Cir. 1994)
    (plaintiffs lacked standing to seek injunctive relief where they
    failed to allege that they would seek job referrals in the near
    future from the defendant they claimed would discriminate
    against them on the basis of race). Here, at least some
    plaintiffs will probably appear before selection boards in the
    near future.
    The second premise—that selection boards are likely to
    discriminate against plaintiffs on the basis of their religious
    denomination—is disputed by the Navy on the grounds that
    the asserted future injury depends, as the district court found,
    on the questionable assumption that “chaplains who will serve
    as promotion board members will necessarily favor
    candidates affiliated with [their] own denomination.” In re
    Navy Chaplaincy, 841 F. Supp. 2d at 345 (internal quotation
    marks omitted). According to the Navy, mere predictions that
    chaplains will someday behave in a biased manner are too
    conjectural to support standing. It is true that vague
    predictions of future discriminatory conduct are insufficient to
    demonstrate the imminent threat of future injury necessary to
    support standing to seek injunctive relief. In Lyons, for
    example, the Supreme Court held that a plaintiff who had
    previously been stopped by the police and subjected to a
    chokehold lacked standing to seek injunctive relief because
    the plaintiff’s assertion that the police were likely to apply a
    chokehold to him again in any future encounter was too
    speculative to demonstrate an imminent threat of future
    injury. 
    461 U.S. at
    105–06. We have similarly found standing
    lacking where plaintiffs claimed future injury based on
    speculation about alleged discriminatory practices
    unconnected to concrete policies. See Worth v. Jackson, 451
    
    9 F.3d 854
    , 860 (D.C. Cir. 2006) (plaintiff failed to demonstrate
    likely future injury where he “challenge[d] no statute,
    regulation, or written policy committing HUD to favoring
    minorities or women, resting his claim instead on speculation,
    untethered to any written directive, about how HUD is likely
    to make future employment decisions”).
    In this case, however, plaintiffs’ asserted future injury
    does not depend solely on speculation about whether
    individual chaplains will behave in a biased manner. Instead,
    plaintiffs challenge specific policies and procedures—the
    casting of secret votes, the small size of selection boards, and
    the appointment of the Chief of Chaplains as president—that
    they claim have resulted in denominational discrimination
    and, if not ended, will continue to do so in the future. Unlike
    in other cases, like Lyons, where plaintiffs speculated about
    the very existence of the unwritten discriminatory practices at
    issue, here the Navy acknowledges that the challenged
    policies and procedures not only exist, but will continue to
    govern the conduct of future selection boards. The prospect of
    future injury becomes significantly less speculative where, as
    here, plaintiffs have identified concrete and consistently-
    implemented policies claimed to produce such injury. For
    example, the Supreme Court suggested in Lyons that the
    plaintiff would have been able to show a likelihood of future
    injury had he alleged that the City maintained a policy
    directing or authorizing the use of chokeholds without
    provocation. 
    461 U.S. at
    105–06. Similarly, in NB ex rel.
    Peacock, where Medicaid-eligible plaintiffs claimed they
    faced an imminent threat of future prescription coverage
    denials without the required notice, we found it significant
    that plaintiffs had alleged that the defendant maintained “a
    policy of denying prescription coverage without providing the
    various forms of notice that plaintiffs claim are required.” 682
    F.3d at 85. We emphasized that plaintiffs had alleged “not
    10
    only that numerous specific denials of coverage were made
    without adequate notice, but also that [the defendant’s]
    guidance and manuals . . . contain no provisions for giving
    Medicaid recipients written notice of the reasons for coverage
    denials.” Id. (citations omitted).
    To be sure, plaintiffs here never allege that the challenged
    policies directly authorize discrimination against or require
    disparate treatment of non-liturgical Protestants. Instead, they
    assert that these policies facilitate or exacerbate
    discrimination by chaplains serving on selection boards. We
    take the Navy’s point that the asserted causal link between the
    policies and the alleged discrimination is more attenuated here
    than in a case where the challenged policies directly authorize
    the allegedly illegal conduct. Cf. Worth, 451 F.3d at 859
    (plaintiff had standing to challenge HUD’s written affirmative
    action plan authorizing racial and gender goals in
    employment). That said, we conclude that plaintiffs’
    allegation that the challenged policies will likely result in
    discrimination is sufficiently non-speculative to support
    standing. For one thing, chaplains inclined to vote on the basis
    of their religious preferences may be more likely to do so
    under the cover of secret ballots. Moreover, it goes without
    saying that the small size of selection boards gives potentially
    biased chaplains more influence over the outcome of the
    proceedings.
    We would have a different view of this issue if plaintiffs’
    claims of discrimination on the basis of religious
    denomination were the type of “fantastic” allegations that
    have given us pause elsewhere. Tooley v. Napolitano, 
    586 F.3d 1006
    , 1009 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (internal quotation marks
    omitted). But this is not such a case. Our nation has long
    grappled with the curse of discrimination on the basis of
    religious belief. The “spiritual tyranny” of the Anglican
    11
    Church was one reason why Thomas Jefferson proposed the
    Virginia Statute for Religious Freedom of 1786. Merrill D.
    Peterson, Thomas Jefferson and the New Nation 133–34
    (1970 ed.). In the late nineteenth century, reflecting the then
    “pervasive hostility” towards the Catholic Church, the nation
    nearly adopted the infamous Blaine Amendment, which
    would have barred aid to “sectarian”—widely understood to
    mean “Catholic”—institutions. Mitchell v. Helms, 
    530 U.S. 793
    , 828 (2000) (plurality opinion). And in more recent times,
    courts have invalidated laws that discriminate against
    particular religious beliefs or practices by laying “the hand of
    the law . . . on the shoulder of a minister of [an] unpopular
    group.” Fowler v. Rhode Island, 
    345 U.S. 67
    , 70 (1953)
    (invalidating municipal ordinance interpreted to prohibit
    preaching in public park by a Jehovah’s Witness but to allow
    church services by Catholics and Protestants); see also
    Church of the Lukumi Babalu Aye, Inc. v. City of Hialeah,
    
    508 U.S. 520
    , 542, 546–47 (1993) (invalidating ordinances
    prohibiting animal sacrifice found to be aimed at suppressing
    the religious practices of Santeria adherents).
    In response to plaintiffs’ claims, the Navy attacks the
    evidentiary underpinnings of plaintiffs’ allegations and argues
    that the challenged procedures do not result in discrimination
    against non-liturgical Protestants. This argument, however,
    goes to the merits of plaintiffs’ claims, not their standing to
    bring them. To be sure, the Navy may challenge plaintiffs’
    evidence to the extent it relates to standing, but it may not
    “bootstrap standing analysis to issues that are controverted on
    the merits.” Public Citizen v. FTC, 
    869 F.2d 1541
    , 1549 (D.C.
    Cir. 1989). Here, the Navy neither disputes plaintiffs’ claims
    that they will expose themselves to potential injury by
    applying for promotions nor argues that it has any plans to
    change the procedures alleged to injure plaintiffs. Instead, the
    Navy argues that plaintiffs’ evidence fails to demonstrate a
    12
    pattern of discrimination against non-liturgical Protestants.
    Perhaps the Navy is right about this, but that is a question for
    the merits, not for standing, and at this stage we must assume
    that plaintiffs will prevail on the merits. Thus, in In re Navy
    Chaplaincy, we “assume[d] arguendo that the Navy’s
    operation of its retirement system favors Catholic chaplains
    and disfavors non-liturgical Protestant chaplains in violation
    of the . . . Establishment Clause.” 
    534 F.3d at 760
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted). Here too we must assume that
    plaintiffs will prevail on their claims that the Navy’s
    promotion system operates in a similarly discriminatory
    fashion.
    We are thus satisfied that at least those plaintiffs whose
    promotions will likely be considered by future selection
    boards operating under the challenged policies have standing
    to pursue their claims for injunctive relief. Although future
    injury is not certain, “absolute certainty is not required.” NB
    ex rel. Peacock, 682 F.3d at 85. It is sufficient that plaintiffs
    have demonstrated a “likelihood of injury that rises above the
    level of unadorned speculation—that is, a realistic danger that
    [they] will suffer future harm.” Id. at 85–86 (internal
    quotation marks omitted). Because only one plaintiff must
    have standing, we have no need to consider either the Navy’s
    motion to dismiss certain retired and former chaplains from
    the appeal for lack of standing or whether the organizational
    plaintiffs have standing to pursue their claims. Comcast Corp.
    v. FCC, 
    579 F.3d 1
    , 6 (D.C. Cir. 2009).
    III.
    We turn next to the district court’s denial of plaintiffs’
    motion for a preliminary injunction. A preliminary injunction
    is “an extraordinary remedy that may only be awarded upon a
    clear showing that the plaintiff is entitled to such relief.”
    Winter v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., 
    555 U.S. 13
    7, 22 (2008). In order to obtain a preliminary injunction, a
    plaintiff “must establish that he is likely to succeed on the
    merits, that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the
    absence of preliminary relief, that the balance of equities tips
    in his favor, and that an injunction is in the public interest.”
    
    Id. at 20
    . We review the district court’s ultimate decision to
    deny injunctive relief, as well as its weighing of the
    preliminary injunction factors, for abuse of discretion.
    Chaplaincy of Full Gospel Churches v. England, 
    454 F.3d 290
    , 297 (D.C. Cir. 2006). We review the district court’s legal
    conclusions de novo and its findings of fact for clear error.
    Serono Laboratories, Inc. v. Shalala, 
    158 F.3d 1313
    , 1318
    (D.C. Cir. 1998).
    In this case, although the district court presumed the
    presence of irreparable harm because plaintiffs had alleged an
    Establishment Clause violation, it ultimately denied their
    motion for a preliminary injunction, concluding that they
    were unlikely to succeed on the merits and that both the
    balance of equities and the public interest weighed against
    granting the injunction. As the Navy concedes, the district
    court correctly assumed that plaintiffs have demonstrated
    irreparable harm. Appellees’ Br. 44; see Chaplaincy of Full
    Gospel Churches, 
    454 F.3d at 303
     (“[W]here a movant
    alleges a violation of the Establishment Clause, this is
    sufficient, without more, to satisfy the irreparable harm prong
    for purposes of the preliminary injunction determination.”).
    Moreover, the Supreme Court has instructed that, in assessing
    the balance of equities and the public interest, we must “ ‘give
    great deference to the professional judgment of military
    authorities’ ” regarding the harm that would result to military
    interests if an injunction were granted. Winter, 555 U.S. at 24
    (quoting Goldman v. Weinberger, 
    475 U.S. 503
    , 507 (1986)).
    This leaves the question of likelihood of success on the
    merits.
    14
    We begin with plaintiffs’ delegation theory—that the
    Navy impermissibly delegates governmental authority to
    religious entities by permitting chaplains to make promotion
    decisions without effective guarantees that the authority will
    be exercised in a secular manner. In support, plaintiffs cite
    Larkin v. Grendel’s Den, Inc., 
    459 U.S. 116
     (1982), in which
    the Supreme Court held that a Massachusetts statute granting
    religious institutions an effective veto power over applications
    for liquor licenses violated the Establishment Clause because
    the delegated power was “standardless, calling for no reasons,
    findings, or reasoned conclusions” and because there were no
    “effective means of guaranteeing that the delegated power
    will be used exclusively for secular, neutral, and
    nonideological purposes.” 
    Id. at 125
    ; see also United
    Christian Scientists v. Christian Science Board of Directors,
    
    829 F.2d 1152
    , 1170–71 (D.C. Cir. 1987). Plaintiffs
    emphasize that they object not to the mere delegation of civic
    authority, but rather to the fact that such delegation is, as in
    Larkin, devoid of standards and procedural guarantees to
    ensure the neutral exercise of such power.
    This case is a far cry from the “standardless” delegation
    scheme at issue in Larkin. Here, Congress and the Secretary
    of the Navy have articulated secular, neutral standards to
    guide selection board members in evaluating candidates for
    promotion. Specifically, board members are required by
    statute to recommend for promotion those officers they deem
    “best qualified for promotion within each competitive
    category considered by the board,” 
    10 U.S.C. § 616
    (a), and
    the Navy provides to each selection board specific “guidance
    relating to the needs of the Navy . . . for officers with
    particular skills in each competitive category, and other
    information and guidelines as necessary to enable the board to
    perform its functions properly.” SECNAVINST 1420.1B,
    15
    ¶ 13.d.(2). And unlike in Larkin, where the churches had final
    say over the liquor license applications, 
    459 U.S. at 125
    , here
    the two chaplains on the selection boards share decision-
    making authority with five others, and the board’s promotion
    decisions are subject to further review by the Secretary of the
    Navy and the Secretary of Defense. 
    10 U.S.C. §§ 618
    (a)(1),
    (c)(1). We thus see no error in the district court’s conclusion
    that plaintiffs are unlikely to succeed on the merits of their
    delegation theory.
    We have a different view of the district court’s resolution
    of plaintiffs’ denominational preference theory, i.e., that the
    Navy discriminates against non-liturgical Protestants on the
    basis of their religious denomination. As discussed above,
    plaintiffs contend that their statistical analysis provides strong
    evidence of a pattern of discrimination. For its part, the Navy
    challenges plaintiffs’ evidence and offers its own expert
    analysis that it claims demonstrates that no such
    discrimination exists.
    Unfortunately, the district court made no factual findings
    to resolve these competing claims. All it had to say about the
    issue was this: “the plaintiffs have submitted no evidence
    from which the court could assume that the future promotion
    boards will follow any putative pattern of alleged past
    discrimination.” In re Navy Chaplaincy, 841 F. Supp. 2d at
    346. But this is the wrong legal standard. Whether “future”
    promotion boards are likely to discriminate on the basis of
    religious denomination is, as we have explained, the question
    we ask to determine whether plaintiffs have Article III
    standing. The issue before us now—whether plaintiffs are
    likely to succeed on the merits—turns on whether they have
    made a strong showing of a pattern of past discrimination on
    the basis of religious denomination and whether that pattern is
    linked to the policies they challenge. Perhaps by saying that
    16
    plaintiffs had “submitted no evidence from which the court
    could assume” future injury, id., the district court meant to
    say that plaintiffs’ evidence of a pattern of past
    discrimination, when considered in light of the Navy’s
    contrary evidence, was unpersuasive. Yet the district court
    never said so, much less explained why it reached any such
    conclusion. Under these circumstances, we have no findings
    to review for clear error. See Lyles v. United States, 
    759 F.2d 941
    , 944 (D.C. Cir. 1985) (“Where the trial court provides
    only conclusory findings, unsupported by subsidiary findings
    or by an explication of the court’s reasoning with respect to
    the relevant facts, a reviewing court simply is unable to
    determine whether or not those findings are clearly
    erroneous.”).
    The Navy insists that the district court did make factual
    findings regarding plaintiffs’ showing of past discrimination.
    In support, it points to the court’s statement that “the evidence
    put forth by the plaintiffs at best establishes a colorable claim
    to relief under the Establishment Clause.” In re Navy
    Chaplaincy, 841 F. Supp. 2d at 349. At oral argument,
    counsel for the Navy claimed that this amounts to an implicit
    factual finding to which we must defer unless clearly
    erroneous. Oral Arg. Rec. 34:05–34:32, 34:58–35:30; see
    Ellipso, Inc. v. Mann, 
    480 F.3d 1153
    , 1159 (D.C. Cir. 2007)
    (applying clear error review to implicit factual finding of
    district court in granting preliminary injunction). But the cited
    statement cannot fairly be read as a finding—implicit or
    otherwise—about the strength of plaintiffs’ showing of past
    discrimination. The district court’s entirely conclusory
    statement gives us no insight at all into whether the court
    perceived the defect in the Establishment Clause claim to be
    legal or factual, or, if factual, whether it thought the weakness
    lay in the evidence of past or future discrimination.
    17
    IV.
    For the foregoing reasons, we reverse the district court’s
    determination that plaintiffs lack Article III standing to seek
    injunctive relief. We also vacate the district court’s denial of a
    preliminary injunction and remand for further proceedings
    consistent with this opinion.
    So ordered.