United States v. Sherri Davis , 863 F.3d 894 ( 2017 )


Menu:
  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued February 3, 2017                Decided July 21, 2017
    No. 15-3044
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    APPELLEE
    v.
    SHERRI DAVIS,
    APPELLANT
    Consolidated with 15-3048, 15-3089, 15-3091
    Appeals from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:14-cr-00037-1)
    (No. 1:14-cr-00037-2)
    Lisa B. Wright, Assistant Federal Public Defender, argued
    the cause for appellant Andre Davis. Adam H. Kurland,
    appointed by the court, argued the cause for appellant Sherri
    Davis. With them on the briefs were A.J. Kramer, Federal
    Public Defender, and Beverly G. Dyer, Assistant Federal Public
    Defender. Tony Axam Jr. and David W. Bos, Assistant Federal
    Public Defenders, entered appearances.
    Alexander P. Robbins, Attorney, U.S. Department of
    Justice, argued the cause for appellee. With him on the brief
    2
    was Gregory Victor Davis, Attorney.            Frank P. Cihlar,
    Attorney, entered an appearance.
    Before: ROGERS and SRINIVASAN, Circuit Judges, and
    GINSBURG, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court by Circuit Judge ROGERS.
    ROGERS, Circuit Judge: Sherri Davis and her son, Andre
    Davis, appeal from their convictions of conspiracy to commit
    tax fraud and related offenses. Sherri owned a tax preparation
    business, which the Internal Revenue Service determined was
    filing returns that falsely reported charitable and business
    deductions. A key government witness, LaDonna Davis, who
    was Sherri’s niece and employee, described at trial how the
    business operated generally, and specifically how Sherri had
    taught her to prepare false returns. Andre worked with his
    mother later on. Both Sherri and Andre challenge their
    convictions on the grounds of prosecutorial misconduct during
    closing arguments to the jury and various evidentiary errors by
    the district court. Andre also contends that there was
    insufficient evidence to demonstrate his guilt beyond a
    reasonable doubt and suggests that the verdict against him on
    two counts is explained, among other reasons, by the
    government’s mischaracterizations of the evidence during
    closing arguments. Upon consideration of the weakness of the
    evidence offered against Andre and its centrality to the issue of
    his mens rea, we conclude that the prosecutor’s blatant
    misstatements of key evidence during closing arguments, in the
    absence of any steps to mitigate the resulting prejudice, require
    reversal of Andre’s convictions. Further, we conclude that the
    evidence against Andre was insufficient and consequently he is
    not subject to retrial. Finally, finding no such prejudice from the
    closing arguments as to Sherri, and concluding her evidentiary
    challenges are unpersuasive, we affirm Sherri’s convictions but
    3
    remand her case for resentencing and for consideration of her
    claims of ineffective assistance of counsel.
    I.
    In 2003, Sherri Davis registered 2FT Fast Facts Tax Service
    with the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”). 2FT was a tax
    preparation business aimed at recovering its clients’ tax
    withholdings and maximizing their tax refunds. Sherri’s niece,
    LaDonna Davis, began working for 2FT in 2006, first doing
    clerical work but later preparing and filing tax returns herself.
    LaDonna would work during the day and into the evenings, and
    Sherri, who was a public school teacher, would join her once the
    school day ended and sometimes work on returns until midnight.
    2FT also employed other individuals to help around the office,
    but only Sherri and LaDonna prepared tax returns. Clients were
    charged between $99 and $500 for each return, often taken as a
    deduction from the client’s refund without the client knowing
    the specific amount. During tax season, 2FT would prepare
    twenty to thirty returns a day, seven days a week. Fees,
    annually totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars, were
    deposited in Sherri’s bank account; employees were paid in
    cash.
    An IRS investigation of 2FT led to an interview with Sherri
    about the responsibilities of tax preparers. Subsequent
    undercover investigations in 2010 and 2011 captured LaDonna
    on videotape preparing false returns for undercover IRS agents.
    In April 2011, the IRS executed a search warrant for 2FT’s
    business location at 1841 Burke Street, SE, Washington, DC,
    where Sherri and LaDonna also lived, and seized computers and
    files. At the time, IRS agents also interviewed LaDonna and she
    agreed to cooperate with their investigation. In October 2011,
    LaDonna entered into a plea agreement admitting conspiring to
    defraud the United States of more than $14 million. She pled
    4
    guilty to conspiracy to defraud the United States, in violation of
    18 U.S.C. §§ 2, 371, and aiding and abetting first degree theft,
    in violation of D.C. Code §§ 22-3211, 22-3212, 22-1805. That
    same month, the IRS expelled Sherri from its electronic filing
    program and suspended 2FT’s electronic filing numbers
    (“EFINs”). Sherri continued her tax preparation business under
    a new name, Davis Financial Services. Instead of identifying
    Sherri as owner, however, Davis Financial Services’ February
    2012 IRS EFIN application listed Andre as the principal and the
    primary contact.
    Sherri was indicted for federal tax violations two years
    later, in February 2014. A superseding indictment filed in July
    2014 named Sherri and Andre as defendants and LaDonna as an
    unindicted co-conspirator. Count 1 charged Sherri and Andre
    with conspiracy to defraud the United States by preparing and
    filing fraudulent and false individual income tax returns, in
    violation of 18 U.S.C. §§ 2, 371. Counts 2 through 33 charged
    Sherri with willfully aiding and assisting in the preparation of
    false returns, in violation of 26 U.S.C. § 7206(2); Andre was
    charged with the same violation in Counts 6, 15, 19, and 22.
    Counts 34 through 36 charged Sherri with filing false individual
    returns, in violation of 26 U.S.C. § 7206(1) and 18 U.S.C. § 2.
    The district court granted the government’s pretrial motion to
    dismiss Counts 2 through 6.
    At trial, eleven of Sherri’s clients testified. According to
    the government,
    all t[old] essentially the same story: each worked for
    an employer that withheld federal income taxes from
    the wages it paid, each went to Sherri’s house between
    2007 and 2013 to file a tax return for the prior year,
    and each (with a single exception) used Sherri to
    prepare returns for multiple tax years. Most of the
    5
    clients specifically identified Sherri as either the only
    person who prepared their returns or one of two people
    who prepared them. All of the returns reported huge
    false deductions . . . .
    Appellee Br. 11 (footnote omitted).
    LaDonna was the government’s star witness. She had come
    to live with Sherri when she was sixteen years old. She testified
    that Sherri taught her how to prepare tax returns, which
    primarily meant getting clients back what was withheld from
    their paychecks, usually by inventing or exaggerating charitable
    deductions and business losses and expenses. She described in
    some detail how Sherri operated her tax preparation business.
    For example, Sherri had instructed her to assign values for
    charitable donations up to several thousands of dollars on blank
    receipts provided either by 2FT or the clients. Eventually,
    LaDonna testified, “it all became like a routine” and she began
    filling in charitable deductions without even asking clients if
    they had receipts. Trial Tr. 95 (Jan. 20, 2015 (pm)).
    LaDonna also testified that Sherri would sometimes come
    in and finish returns when LaDonna had been logged into the e-
    filing system, so returns completed by Sherri “would come in
    under my name” — that is, returns finished by Sherri listed
    LaDonna as the preparer. 
    Id. at 92.
    As another example of how
    Sherri operated, LaDonna recounted how she had prepared a
    return showing a client owed money and, after the client
    became upset, Sherri made changes to the return, “put[ting]
    some stuff in,” so that the client would no longer owe anything.
    
    Id. at 18.
    Subsequently a number of clients were audited after
    LaDonna misinterpreted Sherri’s instructions and included the
    total mileage, not the annual mileage, on vehicles owned by
    clients as part of their business deduction calculation. Sherri
    told LaDonna to stop reporting total mileage and introduced the
    6
    clients to a woman who could create fake mileage logs for them
    to provide to the auditors.
    LaDonna testified at trial that once she had learned about
    the audits and that an IRS representative had spoken with
    Sherri, she began to suspect something was wrong and stopped
    filing “Schedule C” forms showing business profits and losses.
    Her concerns were heightened, she claimed, when IRS agents
    executed the search warrant in April 2011. At the time,
    LaDonna telephoned Sherri, who was in Las Vegas, to alert her
    to what was happening, and Sherri told her to tell the agents that
    she had learned how to prepare tax returns on her own and to
    “go get [her]self committed so that [the agents] would think that
    [she] was crazy.” Trial Tr. 12 (Jan. 20, 2015 (pm)). LaDonna
    did not take Sherri’s advice and relations between the two
    women became strained. (On cross examination, LaDonna
    conceded that she never told the IRS agents during their
    interviews of her that Sherri had told her to say something that
    she knew was untrue.) LaDonna testified that they subsequently
    had “a falling out” because she kept asking Sherri if anything
    was wrong and, while Sherri kept trying to reassure her that
    nothing was wrong she also wanted LaDonna “to lie about the
    fact that she . . . [had] taught [LaDonna] how to do taxes.” Trial
    Tr. 69 (Jan. 20, 2015 (pm)). LaDonna stopped working for 2FT
    and moved out of 1841 Burke Street, SE; Sherri continued
    preparing tax returns, telling LaDonna “no one told her that she
    had to stop.” 
    Id. at 14.
    As to Andre, LaDonna testified that he would come home
    during his spring and summer breaks from Lincoln University
    in Pennsylvania, but that he was neither an employee of 2FT nor
    prepared tax returns. Sometime after the search warrant was
    executed in April 2011, however, LaDonna learned Andre was
    planning to help Sherri prepare tax returns after his graduation.
    She told him not to get involved in view of “everything else that
    7
    was going on,” and Andre responded that the investigation
    “wasn’t a big deal, and that it was just going to go away.” 
    Id. Indeed, LaDonna
    testified that the entire Davis family thought
    the IRS investigation would go no further and was her fault for
    causing the client audits.
    The government introduced evidence that in March 2012
    the IRS accepted an application for a new EFIN for Davis
    Financial Services, described as a sole proprietorship with
    Andre listed as the primary contact and the principal.
    According to records from TaxWise, a tax-preparation software
    company, Davis Financial Services received $16,224 in fees in
    connection with the filing of tax returns for 2012, and $7,829.95
    in fees from 2013 returns, amounts significantly less than the
    annual fees earned by 2FT through e-filings in prior years,
    which ranged from approximately $70,000 to $159,000. A
    spreadsheet from TaxWise also listed “Andre Davis,” “Davis
    Financial Services,” and “1841 Burke Street SE” alongside
    bank account and routing numbers. The government did not
    offer evidence of who owned the bank account.
    Neither Sherri nor Andre testified in their defense. Sherri
    presented seven character witnesses to testify to her honesty and
    trustworthiness, and to elicit testimony to impeach LaDonna’s
    testimony and generally attack her credibility. Sherri also
    called IRS Special Agent Abubaker Naim as a witness to
    confirm that only LaDonna was present during the two times
    undercover IRS agents went to 2FT, ostensibly to have their tax
    returns prepared. Andre did not call any witnesses in his
    defense.
    At the close of all the evidence, the district court granted
    Andre’s motion for judgment of acquittal as to Count 15,
    relating to Deborah Johnson’s 2012 false tax return, ruling that
    the government presented only “speculation” that Andre
    8
    knowingly assisted in the preparation of a false return “when all
    we really have is [that Johnson] said she saw him do something
    on a computer” and “handed [her return] to her.” Trial Tr. 15
    (Jan. 28, 2015).
    The jury found Sherri and Andre guilty on Count 1,
    conspiracy to defraud the United States, and Sherri guilty of
    aiding and assisting taxpayers in the preparation and filing of
    false returns on Counts 7–14, 16–18, and 20–36. It also found
    Andre guilty on Count 19 for aiding and assisting the
    preparation and filing of Thomas Jaycox’s false 2012 tax return
    showing charitable gifts of $51,000 and business and
    miscellaneous expenses of $25,259. The district court denied
    Sherri’s motion for a new trial based on prosecutorial
    misconduct during closing arguments. It also denied both
    defendants’ motions for judgment of acquittal notwithstanding
    the verdicts. Sherri was sentenced to concurrent terms of forty-
    eight months of imprisonment and thirty-six months of
    supervised release, and ordered to pay restitution of $642,103.
    Andre was sentenced to sixty months of probation and ordered
    to pay restitution of $37,537. The district court denied their
    motions for a new trial under Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
    (1963), based on the disclosure at sentencing that LaDonna had
    admitted filing false personal tax returns during pre-trial
    interviews. Both defendants appeal, and we turn first to
    Andre’s challenges to his convictions on Count 1, conspiracy,
    and Count 19, aiding and abetting the preparation and filing of
    a 2012 false income tax return for Thomas Jaycox.
    II.
    To prove Andre’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt on
    Count 1, conspiracy, the government had to prove that he
    knowingly agreed with Sherri (or another person) to defraud the
    federal government of money or to deceptively interfere with
    9
    the lawful functions of the IRS. See Hammerschmidt v. United
    States, 
    265 U.S. 182
    , 188 (1924); United States v. Treadwell,
    
    760 F.2d 327
    , 333 (D.C. Cir. 1985). To prove Andre’s guilt on
    Count 19, the government had to prove that he aided or assisted
    in the preparation or presentation of Jaycox’s false tax return
    with a specific intent to violate the law. Cheek v. United States,
    
    498 U.S. 192
    , 200–01 (1991). Andre maintains that neither
    Jaycox’s testimony about his false 2012 tax return, nor the 2012
    EFIN application, nor LaDonna’s testimony about her
    conversation with him, nor the TaxWise records listing his
    name on a spreadsheet indicating where Davis Financial
    Services’ fees were deposited showed he knowingly and
    intentionally aided in the filing of Jaycox’s false tax return
    (Count 19) or joined in an agreement to further the conspiracy’s
    object, that the object was illegal, and that he had a common
    understanding to violate the law (Count 1). In his view, the
    verdict may be explained, among other reasons, by the
    government’s mischaracterization of evidence during closing
    arguments. We agree.
    A.
    It is well established “that the prosecutor may not refer in
    the opening or closing statement to evidence not admitted at
    trial.” United States v. Valdez, 
    723 F.3d 206
    , 209 (D.C. Cir.
    2013) (quoting United States v. Small, 
    74 F.3d 1276
    , 1282 (D.C.
    Cir. 1996)). Generally, the court considers three factors in
    assessing whether improper prosecutorial argument sufficiently
    prejudiced the defendant to require reversal of the judgment of
    conviction: “[1] the closeness of the case, [2] the centrality of
    the issue affected by the error, and [3] the steps taken to
    mitigate the effects of the error.” 
    Id. (quoting Small,
    74 F.3d at
    1280); see United States v. McGill, 
    815 F.3d 846
    , 918 (D.C. Cir.
    2016). When, as here, the defendant did not object to the
    prosecutor’s alleged misstatements in the district court, our
    review is for plain error. 
    Id. at 888.
                                   10
    To set the context for assessing Andre’s contention that the
    court must reverse his convictions on both counts because of
    prosecutorial misconduct during closing arguments, we
    summarize the relevant evidence, and this necessarily entails
    some overlap with our consideration of Andre’s sufficiency
    challenge. The government’s case against Andre as to both
    Count 1 and Count 19 was thin. See Part II.B, infra. Although
    the evidence established that Andre began working with his
    mother after graduating from college and that false tax returns
    were filed under the Davis Financial Services EFIN during this
    period, the evidence of Andre’s knowing participation in
    Sherri’s tax fraud scheme was equivocal, at best. LaDonna
    testified that she cautioned Andre against working for Sherri,
    but she did not specify why she thought doing so “wasn’t a
    good idea.” Trial Tr. 81 (Jan. 20, 2015 (pm)). Thomas Jaycox
    testified on direct examination that Andre had prepared his 2012
    tax return, but qualified his testimony on cross-examination and
    redirect by clarifying that Sherri had, in fact, also “put[]
    information on” and “finalize[d]” his return after Andre had
    worked on it. Trial Tr. 47, 80 (Jan. 22, 2015 (am)). The
    evidence thus failed to establish who entered the false
    deductions into Jaycox’s return; Sherri was just as, if not more,
    likely to have done so than Andre. The remaining evidence
    against Andre, such as Andre’s name on the EFIN application
    and other documents, at most confirms only that he was
    engaged in operating a tax-preparation business, not that he had
    the specific intent to file false returns or otherwise knowingly
    joined Sherri’s conspiracy to defraud the United States.
    Examination of the prosecutor’s closing arguments reveals
    multiple misstatements of this evidence and, given the gaps in
    the government’s evidentiary case, their prejudicial effect is
    readily apparent. For instance, the prosecutor told the jury that
    Andre personally designated the bank account into which tax
    preparation fees were deposited in 2013 and that Andre and
    11
    Sherri made a “staggering amount of money” but failed to
    report such income in their individual tax returns. Trial Tr. 170
    (Jan. 28, 2015). Even assuming that the first point is not false,
    because Andre’s designation of the bank account might be
    viewed as a reasonable inference from the TaxWise evidence,
    there is no evidentiary basis for the second, nor does the
    government point to any on appeal. The evidence of earnings
    and income reporting related only to Sherri’s receipt of fees and
    failure to accurately report her individual income to the IRS.
    There was no comparable evidence as to Andre. Not only was
    there no direct evidence Andre received fees for preparing and
    filing false returns, much less in “staggering amounts,” as the
    prosecutor told the jury, Trial Tr. 170 (Jan. 28, 2015), there was
    no evidence Andre under-reported his individual income on his
    tax returns. Lumping Andre together with Sherri in this manner
    was clearly prejudicial to Andre. The prosecutor also
    misleadingly minimized Sherri’s role in completing Jaycox’s
    2012 return, telling the jury that Sherri only “came over to make
    sure it was okay, or something to that effect,” 
    id. at 88,
    when
    Jaycox testified that Sherri “finalize[d]” his taxes and “finished
    everything else out” on his 2012 return. Trial Tr. 47, 80 (Jan.
    22, 2015 (am)).
    Even more critically, the prosecutor blatantly
    misrepresented the evidence regarding Andre’s mens rea. First,
    in the opening portion of his closing argument after asking the
    jury, “how do we know that the Defendant Andre Davis acted
    willfully,” the prosecutor told the jury that LaDonna had told
    Andre about the criminal charges she was facing and that Andre
    had reassured her by saying, “Don’t worry. I know what I’m
    doing.” Trial Tr. 96 (Jan. 28, 2015). The prosecutor then told
    the jury: “So he knows. He knows that 2FT is under criminal
    investigation, but yet he continues to file. . . . He acted
    willfully with the specific intent to violate the law.” 
    Id. at 97.
    But this did not accurately recount LaDonna’s testimony. Even
    12
    now, the government’s brief misstates that there was evidence
    LaDonna had told Andre about the criminal nature of the
    investigation in which she was involved. See Appellee Br. 17.
    In fact, LaDonna’s account of the conversation never indicated
    that she had told Andre or that he was otherwise aware of the
    criminal nature of the IRS investigation of 2FT or that Sherri,
    rather than LaDonna alone, was implicated in it. Second, in
    rebuttal closing argument, the prosecutor again asked “how do
    we know that these defendants were trying to commit fraud,”
    and this time told the jury that it’s because “[t]hey’re
    photocopying Goodwill receipts and whiting them out . . . to
    have back-up documents to support the $47,000 and $50,000
    deductions for Thomas Jaycox[.]” 
    Id. at 170.
    But the evidence
    regarding the business providing clients with blank Goodwill or
    other charitable receipts pertained only to years prior to the time
    when Andre began working with his mother and his tenure at
    Davis Financial Services. Jaycox brought his own receipts in
    2012. The government’s response on appeal, that the “Sherri or
    Andre” statement is technically true, because Sherri provided
    blank Goodwill receipts, rings hollow; the government tarred
    Andre with evidence that it implicitly acknowledges had
    nothing to do with him. See Appellee Br. 46.
    The government’s evidence that Andre had the requisite
    mens rea for the offenses for which he was convicted was close
    to none and at best minimal. See Part II.B, infra. Perhaps
    recognizing the weakness in the government’s case, the
    prosecutor sought to convince the jury during closing arguments
    that Andre knew about the fraudulent activity of the 2FT
    business and nonetheless knowingly joined in it once he began
    working with his mother. The prosecutor did so by
    inappropriately bolstering what little evidence there was. No
    remedial or limiting instruction was given to the jury at any
    point to mitigate the obvious prejudice to Andre. But for the
    government’s misrepresentations of key evidence, the court is
    13
    left with the distinct doubt that a jury would have found beyond
    a reasonable doubt that Andre was knowingly involved in
    preparing and filing false tax returns and thereby perpetrating
    the fraudulent tax scheme.             The prosecutor’s blatant
    misstatements on that critical issue jeopardize the court’s
    confidence that the prosecutor’s misconduct during closing
    arguments did not affect the jury’s verdict against Andre. See
    Kotteakos v. United States, 
    328 U.S. 750
    , 764–65 (1946);
    
    Valdez, 723 F.3d at 209
    (citing Gaither v. United States, 
    413 F.2d 1061
    , 1079 (D.C. Cir. 1969)). “This test applies regardless
    of whether our review is for harmless error or [as here] plain
    error.” United States v. Watson, 
    171 F.3d 695
    , 700 (D.C. Cir.
    1999); see 
    McGill, 815 F.3d at 918
    . Standard jury instructions,
    such as that “statements and arguments of counsel are not
    evidence,” Trial Tr. 33 (Jan. 28, 2015), and that it is the jury’s
    “memory of the evidence . . . that should control during . . .
    deliberations,” 
    id. at 32,
    have long been recognized not to be “a
    cure-all for such errors,” 
    Gaither, 413 F.2d at 1079
    . Given that
    the evidence against Andre “was not such that his conviction
    was by any means a certainty,” the prosecutor’s egregious
    misstatements of it during closing argument amount to plain
    error, and accordingly, require reversal of Andre’s convictions.
    United States v. Richardson, 
    161 F.3d 728
    , 737 (D.C. Cir.
    1998).
    B.
    Although the prosecutor’s statements during closing
    arguments to the jury alone would warrant vacating Andre’s
    convictions, the court must also determine whether the
    government may retry him. The court therefore proceeds to
    address Andre’s challenge to the sufficiency of the evidence
    against him. Because we conclude, for the following reasons,
    that the evidence was insufficient to prove his guilt on either
    Count 1 or 19, he is not subject to retrial. See Burks v. United
    States, 
    437 U.S. 1
    , 13–17 (1978); United States v. Williams, 827
    
    14 F.3d 1134
    , 1162 (D.C. Cir. 2016).
    The government, while acknowledging Andre’s innocent
    explanations for the evidence offered against him, responds that
    it is incriminating when viewed collectively. See Appellee Br.
    26 (citing United States v. Bryant, 
    117 F.3d 1464
    , 1468 (D.C.
    Cir. 1997)). As the government sees it, the fact that Andre’s
    name appears on the 2012 EFIN application, on the TaxWise
    records, and on Jaycox’s 2012 tax return suffice, in light of
    LaDonna’s testimony that Andre was “going to be working with
    [his mother],” doing taxes, Trial Tr. 14 (Jan. 20, 2015 (pm)), to
    uphold Andre’s convictions. See 
    id. (citing United
    States v.
    Hough, 
    803 F.3d 1181
    , 1188 (11th Cir. 2015)). It distinguishes
    the evidence in Andre’s case from United States v. Gaskins, 
    690 F.3d 569
    (D.C. Cir. 2012), where there was no evidence the
    defendant ever discussed or was in the presence of unlawful
    contraband or had access to the apartment, leased under his
    name, where the contraband was found. See 
    id. at 26–27.
    Viewing the evidence most favorably to the government,
    see Jackson v. Virginia, 
    443 U.S. 307
    , 319 (1979); 
    McGill, 815 F.3d at 917
    , however, the court concludes that the evidence of
    Andre’s mens rea was, at most, equivocal and thus insufficient
    to sustain his convictions; see Direct Sales Co. v. United States
    
    319 U.S. 703
    , 714 (1943); United States v. Spinner, 
    152 F.3d 950
    , 957 n.1 (D.C. Cir. 1998).
    The clients’ testimony and LaDonna’s testimony confirm
    that Andre had agreed to work with his mother on preparing tax
    returns. But that alone is not the same as showing the requisite
    mens rea to join Sherri’s conspiracy. Most of LaDonna’s
    testimony, and that of Sherri’s clients, was about Sherri and
    LaDonna preparing their tax returns and the general operations
    of the 2FT tax preparation business. LaDonna also testified that
    when she learned after the search warrant was executed that
    Andre was going to begin working with his mother on taxes, she
    15
    had told him “that wasn’t a good idea, that he shouldn’t.” Trial
    Tr. 81 (Jan. 20, 2015 (pm)). But she offered no relevant details
    about Andre’s subsequent conduct or knowledge. And she
    acknowledged at trial that the Davis family was blaming her for
    the audits, and “everybody thought that it [i.e., the IRS
    investigation] was not that serious . . . that it was just going to
    . . . go away,” and “that none of this was going to proceed any
    further.” 
    Id. This evidence
    demonstrates that Andre agreed to
    work for his mother despite knowledge of some type of
    investigation, but it does not show that he knew his mother was
    committing tax fraud, much less that he was involved in
    falsifying tax returns, unlike the government’s clear evidence of
    his mother’s and LaDonna’s knowing culpability. Being
    present and working on clients’ tax returns, without more, does
    not show the requisite specific intent.
    Adding Andre’s name on the EFIN application and the
    TaxWise summary spreadsheets does not add up to a showing
    that Andre knowingly participated in a conspiracy either. That
    Andre’s name was listed as the principal and the point of
    contact for Davis Financial Services in its EFIN application is
    not the same as evidence these designations were the result of
    his action or agreement. The application in the record is a copy
    of an electronic filing and does not indicate who actually
    submitted it to the IRS. Signatures on the filed 2012 tax returns
    were also electronic, and Sherri was known to complete tax
    returns under her employees’ computer log-ins, such that their
    names, rather than hers, would be listed as the preparer. That
    Andre’s name is listed as the return preparer on Jaycox’s 2012
    return is not the same as showing that Andre entered the false
    information or condoned those entries by Sherri, or even knew
    that Sherri was entering false information on the return.
    Similarly, that Andre’s name was listed as the point of contact
    in a TaxWise summary spreadsheet provides no more evidence
    of his mens rea than the inclusion of his name on the EFIN
    16
    application. Even if Andre received Davis Financial Services’
    tax preparation fees or directed where they should be deposited,
    this would show only that Andre had joined the business, not
    that he had knowledge of and assisted Sherri in conspiring to
    defraud the government or in filing false returns with the IRS.
    Thus, the government’s case as to both Count 19 and Count
    1 largely rested on the testimony of client Thomas Jaycox that
    he “remember[ed] Andre Davis doing [his] taxes one particular
    year” and that his 2012 federal tax return, which included false
    deductions, listed Andre as the tax preparer. Trial Tr. 54 (Jan.
    22, 2015 (am)). Jaycox’s testimony, although incriminating,
    had critical weaknesses. On cross-examination, Jaycox
    conceded that he had originally told IRS agents that Sherri had
    prepared his 2012 return without mentioning Andre’s
    involvement. Jaycox explained that this was an oversight.
    “Sherri prepared [his] taxes for years,” 
    id. at 52,
    but one year,
    he now recalled, Andre met with him first and then Sherri had
    come over to “go back over [his taxes], finaliz[ing] them,” 
    id. at 47.
    Although he could not independently remember which
    particular year this was, he concluded that it was 2013 based on
    seeing Andre’s name on the bottom of his 2012 tax return.
    Jaycox added another caveat on redirect examination: When the
    prosecutor asked whether he could remember “seeing” Andre
    “put numbers into a computer while preparing a tax return for
    [him],” Jaycox testified that he could not. 
    Id. at 79.
    He could
    remember only “a young man preparing a return for [him],” and
    admitted that “[he] wouldn’t know Andre Davis if [he] bumped
    into him on the street.” 
    Id. Jaycox’s testimony
    on cross- and redirect examination thus
    undercut the initial impression left by his testimony on direct
    examination about Andre’s involvement in preparing his 2012
    tax return. Although Jaycox did testify that he recalled that a
    young man had prepared his taxes one year and a reasonable
    17
    jury could find that Andre was the “young man” who prepared
    Jaycox’s 2012 income tax return based on Andre’s electronic
    signature on the return and the lack of any evidence of any other
    young man preparing returns for Sherri at the time, Jaycox
    invariably limited Andre’s role. When asked if he recalled
    seeing Andre put numbers into a computer while preparing a tax
    return for him, Jaycox said he did not. As to who was putting
    information on the return, Jaycox drew a sharp distinction. He
    testified that “both of them” put information on the return: “The
    initial portion of it was taken care of by the young man, and
    then later Sherri came in and finished everything else out.” 
    Id. at 80.
    In sum, his testimony dovetailed with LaDonna's
    description of how Sherri operated her tax preparation business.
    Sherri would enter numbers in a return that was open on
    LaDonna's computer and the return would identify LaDonna as
    the preparer of the return even though Sherri had entered the
    false information. As Jaycox put it, “[t]he way the process went
    every year, Sherri would finalize the taxes.” 
    Id. at 47.
    In granting Andre’s motion for a judgment of acquittal on
    Count 15 at the close of the evidence, the district court found
    that there was insufficient evidence against Andre for that count
    to be presented to the jury because
    all we really have is [the witness] said she saw him
    [Andre] do something on a computer. She doesn’t
    know who circled the word “refund.” She doesn’t
    have any information that she’s testified to about any
    preparation he did on the return except he handed it to
    her. Her returns had always been done by Ms. Davis.
    She had talked to Ms. Davis on the phone and was told
    to pick it up from Andre. Even construing that along
    with the EFIN number, his number had been used in
    his name to file the return, I still think that’s all
    speculation that he willfully and intentionally provided
    18
    false information or provided assistance                  to
    intentionally file a fraudulent return.
    Trial Tr. 15 (Jan. 28, 2015). The evidence about Andre’s role
    in preparing Jaycox’s 2012 tax return, Count 19, is similarly
    deficient. Even though Jaycox testified that the young man
    prepared his 2012 income tax return, this statement was
    “bookended” by the limitations Jaycox referred to on cross- and
    redirect examination. Sherri had always prepared Jaycox’s
    returns, and even the year the “young man” helped in the
    preparation, he did only “[t]he initial portion of it[,] . . . and then
    later Sherri came in and finished everything else out” on the
    return. Trial Tr. 80 (Jan. 22, 2015 (am)). In view of the
    overwhelming evidence of Sherri’s culpability in the conspiracy
    generally, and specifically in “finaliz[ing],” 
    id. at 47,
    and
    “finish[ing],” 
    id. at 80,
    Jaycox’s 2012 taxes, that Sherri was the
    source of any false information is “an equally plausible if not
    more plausible account than the government’s theory” that
    Andre entered the false information, United States v. Wilson,
    
    160 F.3d 732
    , 738 (D.C. Cir. 1998). Of course, “the
    government cannot prevail on the basis of jury speculation,” id.;
    see Cooper v. United States, 
    218 F.2d 39
    , 41–42 (D.C. Cir.
    1954), and, here, its theory, and the jury’s verdict as to Andre
    on Count 19, was based on speculation. Although the
    government may meet its burden of proof by circumstantial as
    well as direct evidence, it does not do so where the evidence is
    “equivocal.” Direct Sales 
    Co., 319 U.S. at 714
    .
    Absent any other evidence of Andre’s mens rea, the
    evidence likewise left a critical void and was insufficient to
    demonstrate that Andre knowingly joined Sherri’s conspiracy
    to defraud the United States under Count 1. Although the
    government might have been able to show that Andre’s intent
    to conspire could be inferred because he was working for a
    business that was devoted to filing false returns and he was a
    19
    smart man who had to know what his mother was up to, that is
    not how the government chose to try its case. The government,
    instead, presented testimony from individual tax payers. It
    showed that Andre was involved in the preparation of income
    tax returns for Davis Financial Services. But no witness
    testified that Andre entered false information on a client’s
    income tax return. Rather, the government’s key witness to the
    conspiracy, LaDonna, and its key witness to Andre’s
    preparation and filing a false return, Jaycox, insisted that Sherri
    “finalized” the taxes. To the extent the evidence indicated
    2FT’s purpose was to file false tax returns, that did not
    necessarily carry over to Davis Financial Services. But even if
    a reasonable jury could find based on the false statements in
    Jaycox’s 2012 return that a fraudulent purpose continued, and
    that Andre submitted the EFIN application and received
    payment for preparing tax returns, the evidence never
    established beyond a reasonable doubt that he entered false
    information on any returns or that he knew about or intended
    that anyone working for Davis Financial Services would do so.
    Although an unqualified and specific warning from LaDonna
    might have been enough to alert Andre to steer clear of his
    mother’s criminal conduct, her testimony did not reveal a
    warning of that nature; instead LaDonna testified that the Davis
    family blamed her for the client audits and thought the IRS
    investigation would end shortly. It was the government’s
    burden to establish Andre’s intent to defraud, yet the cumulative
    evidence left the jury to speculate about whether Andre
    knowingly joined his mother’s conspiracy to defraud the United
    States. And, as shown, filling evidentiary gaps during closing
    argument to the jury is not an option that is available to the
    government. See Part 
    II.A, supra
    .
    In sum, the evidence failed to establish, beyond a
    reasonable doubt, that Andre knowingly defrauded the United
    States or knowingly assisted in the preparation and filing of a
    20
    false tax return.
    III.
    Sherri challenges her convictions on the grounds of
    prosecutorial misconduct during closing argument and
    evidentiary error by the district court. Although these
    challenges fail, we conclude that her challenges to her sentence
    and trial counsel’s assistance require further consideration by
    the district court.
    A.
    In his final statement during rebuttal closing argument to
    the jury, the prosecutor told the jury that “Sherri Davis is not
    going to stop until somebody tells her to stop. Your job is to
    tell her to stop.” Trial Tr. 177 (Jan. 28, 2015). Because Sherri
    raised her objection that this statement constituted prosecutorial
    misconduct in moving for a new trial, our review is for abuse of
    discretion, see United States v. Vega, 
    826 F.3d 514
    , 529 (D.C.
    Cir. 2016), and we find none.
    “It is well established that a prosecutor may not make
    statements calculated to arouse the passions or prejudices of the
    jury,” United States v. Monaghan, 
    741 F.2d 1434
    , 1440 (D.C.
    Cir. 1984), or “urge jurors to convict a criminal defendant in
    order to protect community values, preserve civil order, or deter
    future lawbreaking,” 
    id. at 1441.
    As the last words to the jury,
    the potential for prejudice from an impermissible closing
    statement is heightened. See United States v. Holmes, 
    413 F.3d 770
    , 776 (8th Cir. 2005) (citing cases).
    The district court reasonably concluded that the prejudice
    caused by the misconduct was sufficiently mitigated. Before it
    commenced deliberating, the jury was instructed to “ignore that
    last comment of government counsel.” Trial Tr. 182 (Jan. 28,
    21
    2015). Sherri suggests this instruction may have done more
    harm than good by bringing attention to the misstatement. This
    type of “speculative assumption[]” is reasonably rejected, see
    Lakeside v. Oregon, 
    435 U.S. 333
    , 340 (1978), particularly in
    light of her counsel’s request for a curative instruction.
    Additionally, the evidence against Sherri was overwhelming,
    see supra Part I, and Sherri understandably does not challenge
    her convictions on the ground of insufficient evidence, see
    Reply Br. 28. Further, the prosecutor’s errant statement neither
    bolstered nor discredited any witness testimony, nor concerned
    a critical issue for which there was no evidence. Cf. United
    States v. Kerr, 
    981 F.2d 1050
    , 1053–54 (9th Cir. 1991).
    B.
    Sherri’s contention that the district court erred in excluding
    the testimony of her expert medical witness fares no better.
    Under the Insanity Defense Reform Act of 1984, 18 U.S.C.
    §§ 17, 4241 et seq., mental condition evidence is admissible if
    “adequately keyed to the issue of whether [the defendant]
    entertained the mens rea required for proof of the crime.”
    United States v. Childress, 
    58 F.3d 693
    , 729 (D.C. Cir. 1995).
    “Thus, ‘the proper focus is on the proffered link or relationship
    between the specific psychiatric evidence offered and the mens
    rea at issue in the case.’” 
    Id. at 730
    (quoting United States v.
    Cameron, 
    907 F.2d 1051
    , 1067 n.31 (11th Cir. 1990)) (brackets
    omitted). The district court granted the government’s in limine
    motion to strike her medical expert’s testimony, finding that it
    lacked a link to the issue of Sherri’s mens rea. The court also
    concluded that the expert’s proffer that attention deficit
    hyperactivity disorder (“ADHD”) “could cause Ms. Davis to
    have difficulty completing tasks and accurately filling out
    detailed forms[] . . . is precisely the type of ‘justification or
    excuse’ evidence that is not permitted because of the danger that
    it will mislead the jury.” United States v. Davis, 
    78 F. Supp. 3d 17
    , 21 (D.D.C. 2015). Our review is for abuse of discretion, see
    United States v. Day, 
    524 F.3d 1361
    , 1369 (D.C. Cir. 2008);
    22
    United States v. Long, 
    328 F.3d 655
    , 662 (D.C. Cir. 2003), and
    we find none.
    At a pretrial evidentiary hearing, Dr. Robert Madsen, a
    forensic psychiatrist, testified that Sherri suffered from ADHD,
    and that people with this disorder are easily distracted and error-
    prone. This condition, he opined, would not cause a person to
    make up numbers out of whole cloth as Sherri was accused of
    doing, although, he observed, people with ADHD “often are
    prevaricators” or “liars.” Pre-Trial H’g Tr. 41 (Dec. 10, 2014).
    The district court reasonably concluded that allowing Dr.
    Madsen’s testimony would, in effect, “open[] up the jury to
    theories of defense more akin to justification,” without offering
    any insight into Sherri’s mens rea. 
    Childress, 58 F.3d at 729
    (quoting United States v. Pohlot, 
    827 F.2d 889
    , 905 (3d Cir.
    1987)).
    C.
    Sherri’s contention that the district court erred in denying
    her motion for a new trial based on a violation of Brady v.
    Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
    (1963), is also unpersuasive. Under
    Brady and its progeny, the government must timely disclose
    exculpatory or impeachment evidence to the defendant. 
    Brady, 373 U.S. at 87
    ; Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 280–82
    (1999); see United States v. Straker, 
    800 F.3d 570
    , 603 (D.C.
    Cir. 2015). Reversal of a conviction is warranted when “the
    [withheld] evidence is material in the sense that its suppression
    undermines confidence in the outcome of the trial.” United
    States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    , 678 (1985). This court
    “defer[s]” to the district court’s factual findings “under an abuse
    of discretion standard” but reviews the question of materiality
    and prejudice de novo. United States v. Oruche, 
    484 F.3d 590
    ,
    595 (D.C. Cir. 2007); accord 
    Straker, 800 F.3d at 603
    ; United
    States v. Moore, 
    651 F.3d 30
    , 99 (D.C. Cir. 2011). Here, we
    conclude there is no “reasonable probability that the suppressed
    evidence would have produced a different verdict” for Sherri.
    23
    
    Strickler, 527 U.S. at 281
    .
    Sherri’s focus is on the pre-trial admission by LaDonna
    that she filed individual tax returns falsely claiming dependents.
    Sherri maintains that this undisclosed information would have
    helped cast LaDonna as the mastermind of the tax fraud
    conspiracy and diminished her credibility. Even assuming the
    evidence would have assisted Sherri in showing LaDonna was
    the “mastermind,” it would not detract from the evidence of
    Sherri’s major role in the conspiracy and the related criminal
    conduct. The taxpayer witnesses identified Sherri as preparing
    and being directly involved in preparing their false returns; this
    remained true even after LaDonna withdrew from the
    conspiracy. The impeachment value of the evidence that
    LaDonna had knowingly filed five false individual tax returns
    was cumulative to LaDonna’s admission at trial that she had
    prepared and filed years of false income tax returns on behalf of
    2FT clients. See United States v. Brodie, 
    524 F.3d 259
    , 269
    (D.C. Cir. 2008); United States v. Cuffie, 
    80 F.3d 514
    , 517–18
    (D.C. Cir. 1996). It is improbable that LaDonna’s credibility
    “would have been further diminished” by the “new” evidence.
    Wearry v. Cain, 
    136 S. Ct. 1002
    , 1006 (2016). Sherri suggests
    that the evidence would have allowed her to attack LaDonna’s
    “noncompliance with the truthtelling provisions of her
    cooperation agreement.” Appellant Br. 33. But the record
    indicates that LaDonna’s statements to IRS agents about her
    own tax returns predated the cooperation
    agreement. LaDonna’s later admissions about her own falsified
    returns showed she was more forthcoming after entering into
    the plea bargain.
    D.
    Sherri challenges the loss and restitution calculations
    underlying her sentence. The court reviews sentencing
    decisions for abuse of discretion, see Gall v. United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 46 (2007); United States v. Pole, 
    741 F.3d 120
    , 127
    24
    (D.C. Cir. 2013), and factual findings for clear error, see id.;
    United States v. Brockenborrugh, 
    575 F.3d 726
    , 738 (D.C. Cir.
    2009); United States v. Leonzo, 
    50 F.3d 1086
    , 1088 (D.C. Cir.
    1995). We conclude a remand for resentencing is required.
    The district court estimated a tax loss attributable to Sherri
    of more than $1.4 million, including a $642,103 loss to the
    federal government that was subject to restitution, and a nearly
    $800,000 loss to the District of Columbia. Sherri challenges the
    reliability and sufficiency of the facts underlying both figures.
    The government only defends the federal loss figures on the
    assumption that this court need not reach Sherri’s challenge to
    the District of Columbia tax loss because the federal tax loss
    exceeded $550,000, the minimum loss necessary to reach
    Sherri’s Sentencing Guidelines’ base offense level of 20. See
    U.S.S.G. § 2T4.1. Sherri, however, challenged both loss figures
    in the district court and on appeal. Because her challenge to the
    federal loss calculation is compelling, the district court should
    address both on remand.
    The government presented two charts purporting to
    document the federal tax loss. On appeal, the government
    explains that one was an earlier draft of the other and was
    inadvertently included in the government’s sentencing
    memorandum to the district court. See Amended Letter of
    February 3, 2017, from David A. Hubbert, Acting Assistant
    Attorney General, to Mark J. Langer, Clerk of the Court. The
    charts are largely identical except for a column in the draft
    “Description of Determination.” (The draft also includes losses
    for taxpayer Neda Graves that are omitted from the final chart,
    so the total numbers vary modestly.) In the “Description of
    Determination” column, losses are labeled with descriptors such
    as “based on MOI” (memorandum of interview), “based on
    preparer pattern,” “audit amount,” and “per DOJ instructions.”
    A note as to a loss of $11,866 states “$1,668 potential audit,
    unsure what this is.” Although this could be a typographical
    25
    error, the $11,866 figure, like all the other loss figures in the
    draft chart, are in the final chart minus the explanatory text.
    At the sentencing hearing, the district court acknowledged
    that the government would need to “produce some evidence” of
    what the descriptions in the draft chart on federal tax losses
    meant or the court would be at “a loss” trying to determine the
    means used and accuracy of the claims. Sent. H’g Tr. 11 (July
    16, 2015 (am)). The testimony by the government’s expert, IRS
    Special Agent Naim, was incomplete, however, because he had
    not prepared either chart and could only surmise the meaning of
    the labels in the draft chart, conceding that “if it says based on
    preparer pattern, the logical inference of that is that it was not
    based on a memorandum of interview because it doesn’t say
    memorandum of interview[.]” 
    Id. at 44.
    Special Agent Naim
    also could not confirm that the government had interviewed the
    individuals about every year that was described as “based on
    MOI” in the draft chart. He had interviewed one taxpayer,
    Carlos Little, about only his 2012 return, yet the chart listed
    three years of data as “based on MOI.” The prosecutor claimed
    that Little’s grand jury testimony could have been the source of
    the information and that “[a]ll the rest of the witnesses . . . were
    interviewed, personally spoken to by someone from the IRS,
    and/or personally testified here at trial.” Sent. H’g Tr. 23 (July
    16, 2015 (pm)).
    The district court concluded that the government presented
    “essentially an accurate recitation of the losses,” 
    id. at 39,
    by
    assuming that if the loss figures were not supported by an MOI,
    then they “came from the files of the IRS and from the
    testimony that [the taxpayers] had proffered either at trial or in
    grand jury or through the evidence from their returns that . . .
    the government had,” 
    id. at 38.
    Although a sentencing court
    need only find facts by a preponderance of evidence, that
    evidence must have a “sufficient indicia of reliability to support
    its probable accuracy.” United States v. Fahnbulleh, 
    752 F.3d 26
    470, 481 (D.C. Cir. 2014) (quoting United States v. Bras, 
    483 F.3d 103
    , 109 (D.C. Cir. 2007)). Here, the defendants identified
    numerous inconsistencies in the government’s evidence that
    cast doubt on the reliability of the information presented to the
    district court. The discrepancy between Special Agent Naim’s
    testimony that the final chart was based on personal interviews
    and audits and the broader array of sources identified in the
    draft chart and suggested by the prosecutor requires further
    explanation. “[S]entences under the Guidelines ‘must be
    supported by reasons,’ and that means ‘something more than
    conclusions — a distinction important not only to the defendant
    whose future is at stake but also to the appellate process.’”
    United States v. McCants, 
    434 F.3d 557
    , 562 (D.C. Cir. 2006)
    (quoting 
    Childress, 58 F.3d at 723
    ).
    Nor is it clear that any error was harmless. Because the
    data in the final chart appears unreliable as a whole, and not just
    as to a few specific individual taxpayers, the court cannot be
    confident that the government could prove more than the
    $325,000 of loss that Sherri conceded, much less enough to
    reach $550,000 so her base offense level would remain
    unchanged. See U.S.S.B. § 2T4.1. And, although the base
    offense level is the same whether the loss is $550,000 or $1.4
    million, the difference in amount is significant and could affect
    the district court’s evaluation of the “seriousness of the offense”
    in choosing a specific sentence. 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(2)(A).
    It is also evident that the district court based its restitution
    calculation under 18 U.S.C. § 3664(e) on the federal loss
    findings. See also Appellee Br. 66. Because the district court
    must resolve factual disputes over restitution with “something
    more than conclusions,” 
    Pole, 741 F.3d at 128
    (quoting
    
    McCants, 434 F.3d at 562
    ), the restitution order is riddled with
    the same problems as the loss figures. We vacate Sherri’s
    sentences and remand for resentencing on loss and restitution.
    27
    E.
    To prove ineffective assistance of counsel, a defendant
    must show both that “counsel’s representation fell below an
    objective standard of reasonableness,” Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 688 (1984), and “that counsel’s
    errors were so serious as to deprive the defendant of a fair trial,”
    
    id. at 687.
    “[U]nless the record alone conclusively shows that
    the defendant either is or is not entitled to relief[,]” the court
    will remand any “colorable claim” for further fact-finding.
    United States v. Mohammed, 
    693 F.3d 192
    , 202 (D.C. Cir.
    2012) (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Sherri contends that she was denied the effective assistance
    of counsel because trial counsel failed (1) to introduce into
    evidence the undercover videotapes of LaDonna preparing false
    tax returns for IRS agents; (2) to introduce a Facebook post by
    a taxpayer witness referencing business endeavors that
    purportedly suggest the claimed expenses on his returns were
    not false or, at least, that Sherri was unaware they were false;
    and (3) to request a mistrial following the prosecutor’s closing
    argument and to consult with her about making that request.
    Because the record does not conclusively demonstrate that
    Sherri is not entitled to relief, “further factual development” is
    necessary. United States v. Fareri, 
    712 F.3d 593
    , 595 (D.C. Cir.
    2013). Although trial counsel moved for a new trial on the
    ground that the prosecutor’s argument was prejudicial and we
    affirm the district court’s denial of the motion, the district court
    should address Sherri’s third objection as well because our
    review was limited to determining whether the district court
    abused its discretion, not whether Sherri has demonstrated
    denial of her Sixth Amendment right to effective counsel.
    Accordingly, we reverse the judgment of conviction of
    Andre Davis on Counts 1 and 19, and we affirm the judgment
    of conviction of Sherri Davis, but vacate her sentence and
    remand her case for resentencing and for consideration of her
    28
    claims of ineffective assistance of counsel.