Cnstltn Engy v. FERC ( 2006 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued May 10, 2006                    Decided July 18, 2006
    No. 02-1367
    CONSTELLATION ENERGY COMMODITIES GROUP, INC.,
    PETITIONER
    v.
    FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION,
    RESPONDENT
    CALIFORNIA POWER EXCHANGE CORPORATION, ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    Consolidated with
    03-1285, 05-1094, 05-1154
    On Petitions for Review of Orders of the
    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
    David C. Frederick argued the cause for petitioners
    Constellation Energy Commodities Group, Inc., Powerex Corp.,
    and supporting intervenors. With him on the briefs were Scott
    H. Angstreich, Paul W. Fox, Andrea M. Kearney, Ronald N.
    Carroll, John T. Stough, Jr., Kevin M. Downey, Charles V.
    Garcia, James C. Beh, Jeffrey M. Jakubiak, Robert C.
    McDiarmid, Daniel I. Davidson, and Lisa G. Dowden.
    2
    Richard L. Roberts argued the cause for petitioner Southern
    California Edison Company and intervenor Pacific Gas and
    Electric Company. With him on the briefs were Catherine M.
    Giovannoni, Melanie J. Teplinsky, Stephen E. Pickett, Michael
    D. Mackness, Julie A. Miller, Mark D. Patrizio, Joseph H.
    Fagan, and Stan Berman. Paul B. Mohler entered an
    appearance.
    Lona T. Perry, Attorney, Federal Energy Regulatory
    Commission, argued the cause for respondent. With her on the
    brief were John S. Moot, General Counsel, and Robert H.
    Solomon, Solicitor.
    David C. Frederick, Scott H. Angstreich, Paul W. Fox,
    Andrea M. Kearney, and Ronald N. Carroll were on the brief for
    intervenors in support of respondent.
    Richard L. Roberts, Catherine M. Giovannoni, Melanie J.
    Teplinsky, Stephen E. Pickett, Michael D. Mackness, Julie A.
    Miller, Erik N. Saltmarsh, Mary F. McKenzie, Traci Bone, Mark
    D. Patrizio, Joseph H. Fagan, and Stan Berman were on the
    brief for intervenors California Electricity Oversight Board, et
    al. in support of respondent. Arocles Aguilar, Sean H.
    Gallagher, and Victoria S. Kolakowski entered appearances.
    Before: GINSBURG, Chief Judge, and TATEL and GARLAND,
    Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Chief Judge GINSBURG.
    GINSBURG, Chief Judge: The bankruptcy of the California
    Power Exchange Corporation (the CalPX or the PX) in March
    2001 gave rise to several proceedings before the Federal Energy
    Regulatory Commission and to the orders before us today.
    Petitioners Constellation Energy Commodities Group, Inc. and
    3
    Powerex Corporation (“the sellers”)* argue the Commission
    misinterpreted the CalPX tariff to allow the PX to retain
    collateral they had posted with it, and Powerex individually
    challenges the Commission’s decision allowing the PX to retain
    its so-called “chargeback” payments. Petitioner Southern
    California Edison Company and intervenor Pacific Gas and
    Electric Company (“the purchasers”) claim the Commission has
    not allowed the PX to retain sufficient collateral. Because we
    conclude the Commission acted reasonably in all respects, we
    deny the petitions for review.
    I. Background
    We pick up the “long, detailed, and tortured” history of the
    California energy crisis in the mid-1990s when, in an attempt to
    deregulate its energy markets, the State of California created the
    CalPX and the California Independent System Operator
    Corporation (CAISO). Bonneville Power Admin. v. FERC, 
    422 F.3d 908
    , 911 (9th Cir. 2005). The CAISO is responsible for
    managing the flow of electricity on the electric grid across the
    State and runs a “spot” market for electricity. The now-defunct
    CalPX ran an auction market for electricity in which participants
    bought and sold power in “day-ahead” and “day-of” markets
    subject to the conditions of the CalPX tariff. In particular, the
    CalPx tariff required each participant to maintain with the PX
    collateral sufficient to cover its outstanding liabilities from the
    time “the liabilities are incurred” until “payment is billed and
    settled.” CalPX Tariff § 2.2.
    Beginning in the summer of 2000 many purchasers’
    liabilities skyrocketed due to the increased rates they paid for
    *
    Although the parties could both buy and sell power in the
    CalPX markets, we use the terms “sellers” and “purchasers” to
    describe the petitioners’ roles relevant to this case.
    4
    power. Bonneville, 
    422 F.3d at 912
    . San Diego Gas and
    Electric Company, a purchaser in the CalPX market, filed a
    complaint with the Commission alleging these rates were unjust
    and unreasonable, in violation of 16 U.S.C. § 824d(a). See San
    Diego Gas & Elec. Co. v. Sellers of Energy & Ancillary Servs.
    into Markets Operated by the [CAISO] & the [CalPX], 93
    F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,294, at 61,983 (2000). The Commission
    investigated, agreed, and “condition[ed] continued approval of
    market-based rates on the seller agreeing to refund” any amount
    it had charged in excess of the maximum just and reasonable
    rate from October 2, 2000 to June 20, 2001 (the refund period).*
    Id. at 61,999, 62,010-11; Powerex Corp. v. Cal. Power Exch.
    Corp., 102 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,328, at 62,121 (2003) (Powerex
    Order).
    Edison and PG&E were unable, however, under state law,
    to pass on to their retail customers the increased rates they had
    paid for power purchased through the PX. As a result, the two
    companies together defaulted on more than a billion dollars of
    debt to the PX and others. Pac. Gas & Elec. Co. v. Cal. Power
    Exch. Co., 95 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,020, at 61,041 (2001) (2001
    Chargeback Order). The CalPX then sought to recover the
    unpaid amounts under the “chargeback” provision of its tariff,
    “an allocation mechanism intended to allow the PX to recover
    the uncollected receivables of a defaulting PX debtor” from the
    other, non-defaulting participants. Powerex Order, 102
    F.E.R.C. at 62,120 n.3.
    *
    The refund period began 60 days after the rates were first
    challenged as unjust and unreasonable and ended when the
    Commission began “constraining prices” in the power markets. See
    San Diego Gas & Elec. Co. v. Sellers of Energy and Ancillary Serv.
    into Markets Operated by the [CAISO] & the [CalPX], 96 F.E.R.C. ¶
    61,120, at 61,502, 61,504 (2001).
    5
    Several participants balked at the demand made by the
    CalPX and turned to the Commission for relief. In April 2001,
    the Commission concluded that charging other participants in
    order to satisfy PG&E’s and Edison’s debts would “cause
    virtually all PX participants to default.” 2001 Chargeback
    Order, 95 F.E.R.C. at 61,045. The Commission therefore
    directed the PX to: “(1) rescind all chargeback actions related to
    PG&E’s and SoCal Edison’s liabilities; and (2) refrain from
    taking any future chargeback action related to” those liabilities
    until the Commission had ruled on other complaints related to
    the bankruptcy. Id. at 61,046.
    Meanwhile, in March 2001, the CalPX had filed for
    bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy
    Code, 
    11 U.S.C. §§ 101
    , et seq., and the following month
    suspended operations in its markets. Constellation Power
    Source, Inc. v. Cal. Power Exch. Corp., 100 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,124,
    at 61,482 (2002) (Constellation Order). In 2002 Constellation
    filed a complaint with the Commission seeking release of the
    collateral it had posted with the CalPX pursuant to § 2.2 of the
    CalPX tariff. Constellation maintained its liabilities to the PX
    had been “billed and settled” -- the precondition in § 2.2 for the
    release of collateral -- when it paid its last invoice for debts
    incurred in the markets that closed in 2001. Allowing the PX to
    keep the collateral, Constellation argued, would convert the
    collateral “into a guaranty of payment” for any liability the
    Commission might assign Constellation as a result of the refund
    proceedings, thus contravening both the “CalPX’s tariff and the
    Commission policy” against requiring guaranties for refunds.
    Id.
    The Commission denied Constellation’s complaint, holding
    that, “given the numerous ongoing contested proceedings
    regarding the transactions that occurred in the PX markets,” the
    “final billing and settlement” of Constellation’s liabilities had
    6
    “not yet taken place.” Id. at 61,486. The agency reasoned:
    [We are] ... faced with circumstances that were not
    contemplated when the Commission approved the
    ‘billed and settled’ provision of the CalPX tariff. The
    CalPX is no longer operating and therefore cannot
    adjust future bills when outstanding liabilities are
    finally determined ....
    Under these unusual circumstances, the Commission
    finds that retaining the collateral is in the public
    interest because [the Commission is] enforcing the
    terms of the tariff to assure that all market participants
    meet their outstanding obligations and the ultimate
    CalPX creditors are paid.
    Id.
    Constellation petitioned for rehearing, reiterating the
    arguments raised in its complaint and pointing out the
    Commission had not addressed its alternative proposal that the
    PX release all but the amount of collateral necessary to cover the
    refunds still pending. See Constellation Power Source, Inc. v.
    Cal. Power Exch. Corp., 100 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,380, at 62,697
    (2002) (Constellation Rehearing Order). The Commission
    accepted Constellation’s alternative proposal and ordered the
    CalPX to release all but $10 million of Constellation’s collateral
    -- a “conservative estimate” of the amount needed “to cover
    [Constellation’s] potential refund liability.” Id.
    Edison and PG&E then each petitioned for further
    rehearing. Both argued that, because the CalPX’s accounts were
    “subject to many ongoing controversies,” $10 million might not
    cover the refunds for which Constellation ultimately could be
    found liable. Constellation Power Source, Inc. v. Cal. Power
    7
    Exch. Corp., 111 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,147, at 61,778 (2005)
    (Constellation Second Rehearing Order). The Commission
    rejected their petitions, explaining that it had “t[aken] into
    account the fact that potential refunds may increase” and “used
    the most conservative estimates” before determining that $10
    million would be sufficient. Id. at 61,778-79.
    Powerex also joined the fray, filing a complaint with the
    Commission seeking from the CalPX (1) the release of its
    collateral, and (2) the return of the chargeback payments it had
    made when PG&E and Edison defaulted. Powerex Order, 102
    F.E.R.C. at 62,121. In March 2003 the Commission concluded,
    as it had in the Constellation Order, that Powerex’s liabilities
    were not yet “billed and settled” because the refund proceedings
    were not complete. Id. at 62,124. In contrast to its decision in
    the Constellation Rehearing Order, however, the Commission
    refused to order the CalPX to release any of Powerex’s collateral
    because it could not determine “whether Powerex’s collateral
    exceeds its potential refund liability.” Id. at 62,123.
    As for the chargeback payments, the Commission deferred
    consideration of Powerex’s request pending resolution of the
    petitions for rehearing of the 2001 Chargeback Order. See id.
    at 62,124. In October 2004 it determined the return of all
    chargeback funds “should wait until a final computation” in the
    refund proceedings: “In the event that there is a shortfall of
    payments due from sellers, the shortfall may need to be
    allocated such that a seller with chargebacks that are being held
    by the PX[] may not be entitled to the entire amount previously
    paid.” Pac. Gas & Elec. Co. v. Cal. Power Exch. Corp., 109
    F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,027, at 61,114 (2004 Chargeback Order). The
    Commission explained that, although some participants had paid
    their chargebacks in cash, others had “paid” by accepting
    reduced payments of monies due from the CalPX; the latter
    group could not be “reimbursed” until the PX’s accounts were
    8
    settled. Only by waiting until the refund proceedings were
    complete, therefore, could the Commission ensure the two
    groups “w[ould] be treated similarly.” Id. at 61,114 n.30.
    Powerex petitioned for rehearing. The Commission
    rejected its claims but clarified that the chargeback funds would
    be retained “only until the individual PX account of the PX
    participant that made a chargeback payment is resolved in the
    Refund Proceedings”; “the chargeback funds held by the PX are
    not to be used to make up any general shortfall” caused by
    another participant’s default. Coral Power, L.L.C. v. Cal. Power
    Exch., 110 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,288, at 62,108 (2005) (2005
    Chargeback Order). Constellation, Powerex, and Edison each
    petition for review of one or more of the Commission’s orders.
    II. Analysis
    Both sellers argue the Commission’s interpretation of the
    CalPX tariff is unreasonable and contrary to precedent; Powerex
    also challenges the Commission’s orders denying the release of
    its chargeback funds. As intervenors in the case brought by
    Edison, the sellers challenge Edison’s standing and defend the
    Commission’s release of Constellation’s collateral.
    The purchasers argue the Commission’s decision releasing
    all but $10 million of Constellation’s collateral (1) conflicts with
    the CalPX tariff, (2) is not supported by substantial evidence,
    and (3) conflicts with Commission precedent. As intervenors in
    the case brought by the sellers, the purchasers argue the sellers
    lack standing and their petitions are moot; the purchasers also
    support on their merits the Commission’s decisions allowing the
    PX to retain the sellers’ collateral and Powerex’s chargeback
    funds.
    The Commission maintains several arguments raised by the
    9
    sellers are jurisdictionally barred because they were not raised
    before the agency. In the alternative, the Commission defends
    its orders on their merits.
    As always, we will set aside a decision of the Commission
    only if it is arbitrary and capricious or otherwise contrary to law.
    Envtl. Action, Inc. v. FERC, 
    939 F.2d 1057
    , 1061 (D.C. Cir.
    1991). Because we conclude the Commission rationally
    interpreted and implemented the CalPX tariff, we do not disturb
    the orders under review.
    A. Justiciability
    As stated, Edison and the sellers challenge each other’s
    standing to petition for review. The facts relevant to standing,
    however, are not in dispute; rather, each side impugns the legal
    significance of the facts marshaled by the other in support of its
    standing.
    First, Edison and PG&E claim that, because the
    Commission approved the sellers’ requests to offset against their
    eventual refund obligations the costs they incur to keep their
    collateral posted with the PX, the sellers’ petitions are moot and
    they lack the injury in fact necessary to support their standing,
    see Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560 (1992).
    The sellers reply that the “posting costs are not the only source
    of ... injury from the [PX’s] retention of their collateral”;
    because “credit pledged in one market cannot be utilized
    productively in other markets,” their business opportunities are
    limited.
    Our caselaw makes clear the sellers’ claims are justiciable:
    A “present injurious effect on [a petitioner’s] business
    decisions,” Rio Grande Pipeline Co. v. FERC, 
    178 F.3d 533
    ,
    540 (D.C. Cir. 1999), is a cognizable injury in fact and presents
    10
    a live controversy within the “case or controversy” limitation of
    Article III of the Constitution of the United States. See Fund for
    Animals, Inc. v. Hogan, 
    428 F.3d 1059
    , 1065 (D.C. Cir. 2005).
    For their part, the sellers argue Edison lacks standing
    because its alleged injury -- the release of Constellation’s
    collateral will “make it more difficult ... to recover refunds from
    Constellation” -- is speculative and not imminent. See
    Defenders of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. at 560
     (requiring that injury be
    “actual or imminent, not ‘conjectural’ or ‘hypothetical’”).
    Edison responds with decisions from two sister circuits holding
    the loss of an interest in collateral constitutes an immediate
    injury in fact. See In re Paxton, 
    440 F.3d 233
    , 236 (5th Cir.
    2006); Motorola Credit Corp. v. Uzan, 
    388 F.3d 39
    , 55 (2d Cir.
    2004).
    We agree with Edison that the increased risk of non-
    recovery inherent in the reduction of collateral securing a debt
    of uncertain amount is sufficient to support its standing. As
    detailed below, Constellation’s ultimate liability to the PX has
    not been settled, and Edison claims that, without access to the
    released collateral, it lacks the security of repayment guaranteed
    to participants by § 2.2 of the CalPX tariff. Cf. Bankers Trust
    Co. v. Old Republic Ins. Co., 
    959 F.2d 677
    , 682 (7th Cir. 1992)
    (victim of “insured’s tort” has “legally protectable interest” in
    tortfeasor’s policy even before he has obtained judgment upon
    claim). In these circumstances, and considering Edison’s
    legitimate interest in obtaining redress for any unjust or
    unreasonable rates it paid, we conclude its claimed interest in
    the collateral satisfies the standing requirements of Article III.
    B. The Sellers’ Petitions
    Section 2.2 of the CalPx tariff, the proper interpretation of
    which is in dispute, provides in relevant part:
    11
    Each PX Participant shall maintain sufficient collateral
    to cover its aggregate outstanding liabilities in the Day-
    Ahead and Day-Of Markets to and from the PX
    between cash clearing cycles or during the period in
    which the liabilities are incurred and when payment is
    billed and settled.
    CalPX Tariff § 2.2. Our review of the Commission’s
    interpretation of a filed tariff is analogous to our review of the
    agency’s interpretation of a statute it administers. See Chevron,
    U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc., 
    467 U.S. 837
    ,
    842-43 (1984). First, we determine whether the tariff is
    ambiguous; if it is not, then the Commission must adhere to its
    plain meaning. FPL Energy Marcus Hook, L.P. v. FERC, 
    430 F.3d 441
    , 446 (D.C. Cir. 2005). If the tariff is ambiguous,
    however, then we defer to the Commission’s interpretation so
    long as it is reasonable, regardless whether it seems to us the
    best interpretation. Williams Natural Gas Co. v. FERC, 
    3 F.3d 1544
    , 1551 (D.C. Cir. 1993).
    1. The plain meaning of the tariff
    The sellers first argue “the plain meaning and structure of
    the CalPX tariff unambiguously establish” that the “liabilities”
    for which the PX could require collateral per § 2.2 have already
    been “billed and settled.” In support of this argument, the
    sellers cite various other provisions of the tariff that, they claim,
    by putting it in context show the plain meaning of § 2.2. The
    Commission, in response, maintains the sellers’ argument is not
    properly before the court because in arguing before the
    Commission they “never cited ... any other provisions of the PX
    tariff now cited in their brief.” See 16 U.S.C. § 825l(b) (“No
    objection to the order of the Commission shall be considered by
    the court unless such objection shall have been urged before the
    Commission in the application for rehearing unless there is
    12
    reasonable ground for failure so to do”).
    The Commission is correct. The sellers did not make this
    argument before the agency and in fact never even cited the
    sections of the tariff upon which they now rely for the
    interpretation of § 2.2. Accordingly, we have before us no
    cognizable argument that “the period in which ... payment is
    billed and settled” plainly does not remain open until the
    Commission determines the sellers’ liability for refunds.
    2. A reasonable interpretation
    The sellers next argue the Commission’s interpretation of
    the tariff “cannot be sustained because it is unreasonable.”
    Specifically, they claim the Commission’s conclusion that their
    accounts will not be “billed and settled” until the pending refund
    proceedings are complete conflicts with “settled ... precedent”
    in which the Commission has refused, absent “extraordinary
    circumstances,” to require a party to provide a guaranty for
    potential refund obligations. See, e.g., Distrigas of Mass. Corp.,
    33 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,406, at 61,776 (1985).
    The Commission, defending its interpretation as consistent
    with precedent, notes that in Distrigas and similar cases it
    “denied requests for bond or escrow requirements to secure
    refund obligations for rates that had been set for hearing.” Here,
    in contrast, it did “not requir[e] a guaranty for the payment of
    refunds, but rather enforc[ed] the terms of the PX tariff
    regarding retention of collateral.” As the Commission explained
    in the order under review, even after the CalPX closed its
    markets it continued to issue new invoices to reflect adjustments
    to and revisions of transactions dating as far back as August
    2000, and “[t]he amount of Constellation’s outstanding liability
    [to the CalPX was] not yet known.” Constellation Order, 100
    F.E.R.C. at 61,486.
    13
    We think the Commission’s position that the sellers’
    liabilities have not yet been “billed and settled” is both
    reasonable and consistent with precedent: Certainly decisions
    such as Distrigas in no way precluded the parties from entering
    into an agreement -- more properly from maintaining and
    accepting a tariff -- that provides billing and settlement would
    not take place, and consequently collateral would be required,
    until any refund proceedings were complete.
    Indeed, we believe the Commission reasonably concluded
    the parties did just that, with the result that the sellers’ liabilities
    for transactions during the refund period will not be “settled”
    until the Commission determines the maximum just and
    reasonable price at which they could lawfully sell power during
    the refund period.            Furthermore, the Commission’s
    interpretation, which will help ensure “market participants meet
    their outstanding obligations and the ultimate CalPX creditors
    are paid,” id., is consistent with both the text of § 2.2, which
    nowhere limits which liabilities must be collateralized, and the
    general purpose of the provision requiring that market
    transactions be secured. In sum, we believe the Commission
    reasonably concluded the sellers’ total liabilities to the CalPX
    had not yet been “billed and settled”; consequently it did not err
    in permitting the PX to retain the sellers’ collateral. See
    Williams Natural Gas Co., 
    3 F.3d at 1551
    .
    3. The CAISO market
    The sellers next argue the Commission, when it refused to
    direct the PX to release their collateral, “violated the CalPX
    tariff” by considering transactions in the CAISO market with
    respect to which the sellers did not use the PX as their
    scheduling coordinator. As the sellers note, § 2.2 of the tariff
    requires collateral solely for obligations incurred “to and from
    the PX,” and the only way in which a seller in the CAISO
    14
    market could incur an obligation “to ... the PX” was to use the
    CalPX as its scheduling coordinator.
    The Commission maintains we may not consider this
    argument because the sellers failed to raise it before the agency.
    Constellation, however, claims it did raise the issue in the
    petition for rehearing where it argued for limited liability
    “[e]ven if its potential refunds to the ISO are considered (as they
    should not be).” Powerex similarly points to a footnote in its
    petition for rehearing, in which it asserted that “collateral held
    by the CalPX never was intended ... to operate as security for
    participation in markets outside of the CalPX, such as markets
    operated by the CAISO.”
    Each quoted passage states a conclusion; neither makes an
    argument. Parties are required to present their arguments to the
    Commission in such a way that the Commission knows
    “specifically ... the ground on which rehearing [i]s being
    sought.” Intermountain Mun. Gas Agency v. FERC, 
    326 F.3d 1281
    , 1285 (D.C. Cir. 2003). Although each seller mentioned
    the CAISO, neither claimed, either as a matter of fact or of law,
    that it had not incurred liability to the PX with respect to any
    transaction in the CAISO market. Absent such a claim, the
    Commission had no reason to disregard the sellers’ transactions
    in the CAISO market, and we cannot entertain the sellers’
    belated argument to the contrary. See 16 U.S.C. § 825l(b).
    4. Chargeback
    Finally, Powerex contends the Commission “violated the
    CalPX tariff” by allowing the PX to retain the chargeback
    payments Powerex made after PG&E and Edison defaulted.
    Powerex claims the tariff authorized a chargeback only to cover
    the present default of another participant, whereas the
    Commission is attempting to provide, by allowing the PX to
    15
    retain the chargeback payments until the refund proceedings are
    complete, security against the possibility a participant might
    default in the future. The Commission explained its decision
    was necessary to “assure that those who paid their chargeback
    through receiving a reduced payment from the PX will be
    treated similarly to those who paid the chargeback in cash[;]
    both will receive a similar allocation of any shortfall,”
    Chargeback 2004 Order, 109 F.E.R.C. at 61,114 n.30, and
    neither will be reimbursed until refund proceedings are
    complete.
    Powerex urges us to reject the Commission’s invocation of
    the need for equity among market participants, claiming the
    Commission did not rely consistently upon that ground in its
    orders. In particular, Powerex points to the Commission’s claim
    in the 2005 Chargeback Order that the chargeback funds held
    by the PX “may be retained only until the individual PX account
    of the PX participant that made a chargeback payment is
    resolved in the Refund Proceedings.” 110 F.E.R.C. at 62,108.
    It is well settled that “we defer to [the Commission’s]
    decisions in remedial matters” and reject the Commission’s
    choice of an equitable remedy only if it lacks a “rational basis.”
    Koch Gateway Pipeline Co. v. FERC, 
    136 F.3d 810
    , 816 (D.C.
    Cir. 1998). The orders in this case are not lacking. As the
    Commission recognized in the 2004 Chargeback Order, those
    participants that “paid” the chargeback by accepting reduced
    payments from the CalPX cannot be reimbursed until the final
    CalPX accounting is complete and it is clear there are no
    shortfalls in the CalPX accounts to prevent full repayment. The
    Commission rationally concluded those participants that paid
    their chargebacks in cash should be treated in a like manner,
    receiving reimbursement only after the Commission determines
    there is no shortfall in their individual accounts. See
    Chargeback 2004 Order, 109 F.E.R.C. at 61,114 & n.30.
    16
    Nor, contrary to Powerex’s argument, is there any
    inconsistency between the 2004 and 2005 Chargeback Orders.
    Although one could read the footnote in the 2004 Chargeback
    Order (quoted above) to allow the CalPX to use one
    participant’s chargeback funds to offset a shortfall caused by
    another, that is by no means the only reasonable interpretation.
    As the Commission suggests, the more natural reading is that the
    2004 Chargeback Order simply delays reimbursement until
    each participant’s account is settled and the extent of each
    participant’s shortfall, if any, has been determined, thereby
    treating similarly those participants that paid in cash and those
    that paid by receiving reduced amounts from the PX. So
    understood, the 2005 Chargeback Order clarifies, but does not
    contradict, the 2004 Chargeback Order. Because the orders
    consistently offer a “rational basis” for delaying reimbursement
    of the chargeback payments, Koch Gateway Pipeline Co., 136
    F.3d at 816, we will not disturb the orders under review.
    C. The Purchasers’ Challenges
    The purchasers launch several attacks on the Commission’s
    decision to release a portion of Constellation’s collateral.
    Constellation Second Rehearing Order, 111 F.E.R.C. at 61,778-
    79. First, they claim it conflicts with “every other case on
    point,” citing La Paloma Generating Co., LLC v. California
    Independent System Operator Corp., 110 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,386
    (2005) (La Paloma Order); Powerex Order, 102 F.E.R.C. ¶
    61,328; and PG&E Energy Trading-Power, L.P. v. California
    Power Exchange Corp., 102 F.E.R.C. ¶ 61,091 (2003) (PGET
    Order). Next, they argue the decision is not supported by
    substantial evidence because: The Commission (1) cited no
    record evidence, study, or calculation showing $10 million was
    a “conservative estimate”; (2) without explanation, did not use
    the mechanism in the CalPX tariff for calculating the amount of
    collateral needed; and (3) disregarded evidence Edison
    17
    presented demonstrating Constellation’s refund liabilities were
    “likely to increase substantially due to ongoing litigation.”
    Finally, the purchasers maintain the Commission erred in
    relying upon the estimated refund figures provided by
    Constellation without itself testing them.
    The Commission defends its order as consistent with
    precedent and supported by substantial evidence. To begin, the
    Commission contends the allegedly contrary decisions cited by
    the purchasers are not inconsistent with the orders challenged
    here; in those decisions the Commission refused to release
    collateral expressly because it was unable to determine whether
    the collateral would exceed the sellers’ potential refund
    liabilities -- a determination it was able to make in
    Constellation’s case, as explained below. Next, the Commission
    claims it provided “ample justification” for allowing the PX to
    retain only $10 million of collateral. As it explained in the
    Constellation Second Rehearing Order, that figure was based
    upon “the most conservative estimates” of Constellation’s
    refund liability, taking “into account the fact that potential
    refunds may increase as a result of the proposed changes to the
    refund methodology.” 111 F.E.R.C. at 61,779. Finally, the
    Commission maintains it properly applied the tariff: Section 2.2
    required collateral to cover outstanding liabilities, and
    Constellation’s only outstanding liabilities were such refunds as
    may be due the CalPX. Because the Commission conservatively
    estimated those refunds to be less than $10 million, it argues, it
    was consistent with the tariff to release the rest.
    We do not believe the Commission erred. The allegedly
    contrary decisions are, as the Commission has explained, fully
    consistent with the orders in Constellation’s case. In the other
    decisions the Commission either (1) was unable to calculate the
    seller’s refund liability because the seller was subject to further
    discovery regarding market manipulation, or (2) found the
    18
    seller’s estimated refund liability exceeded the amount of its
    posted collateral. See Powerex Order, 102 F.E.R.C. at 62,123
    (refund liability uncertain because Powerex still subject to
    market manipulation proceedings); PGET Order, 102 F.E.R.C.
    at 61,250-51 (company’s potential refund liability “substantially
    exceeds the amount of its collateral”); La Paloma Order, 110
    F.E.R.C. at 62,497 (refund liability not finally determined).
    Moreover, as we have long recognized, “it is within the
    scope of the agency’s expertise to make ... a prediction about the
    market it regulates, and a reasonable prediction deserves our
    deference notwithstanding that there might also be another
    reasonable view.” Envtl. Action, 
    939 F.2d at 1064
    . In this case,
    the Commission explained that its decision to release a portion
    of Constellation’s collateral was made after considering
    Constellation’s potential refund liability under a variety of
    scenarios, none of which suggested Constellation would owe
    more than $4.6 million to the CalPX and the CAISO together.
    Constellation Second Rehearing Order, 111 F.E.R.C. at 61,778-
    79 & n.12. For a margin of safety, the Commission reasonably
    required the CalPX to retain collateral worth more than double
    its highest estimate of Constellation’s liability, thereby leaving
    room for the increase in refund liability the purchasers are
    predicting. In any event, the purchasers point to nothing in the
    record suggesting the figures provided by Constellation were
    erroneous or the refund required is likely to exceed $10 million.
    In these circumstances we have no reason to doubt the
    Commission’s considered calculation is reasonable and deserves
    our deference.
    III. Conclusion
    As the numerous orders before us attest, the Commission
    was called upon to resolve a number of complex and contested
    issues in the aftermath of the CalPX bankruptcy. The petitioners
    19
    have not demonstrated that it acted unreasonably in doing so.
    For the reasons stated, therefore, the petitions for review are
    Denied.