Ark. Pub. Serv. Comm'n v. Fed. Energy Regulatory Comm'n ( 2018 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued January 19, 2018                  Decided June 1, 2018
    No. 16-1305
    ARKANSAS PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION,
    PETITIONER
    v.
    FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION,
    RESPONDENT
    ENTERGY SERVICES, INC., ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    On Petition for Review of Orders of the
    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
    Dennis Lane argued the cause for petitioner. With him on
    the briefs were Glen L. Ortman, John E. McCaffrey, and
    Randolph Hightower.      Marie Denyse Zosa entered an
    appearance.
    Gregory W. Camet, Mark Strain, and Marnie A. McCormick
    were on the briefs for intervenor Entergy Services, Inc. in
    support of petitioner. Megan E. Vetula entered an appearance.
    Lona T. Perry, Deputy Solicitor, Federal Energy Regulatory
    Commission, argued the cause for respondent. With her on the
    brief were David L. Morenoff, General Counsel, and Robert H.
    2
    Solomon, Solicitor. Anand Viswanathan, Attorney, entered an
    appearance.
    David E. Pomper argued the cause for intervenors
    Louisiana Public Service Commission, et al. With him on the
    brief were Stephen Charles Pearson, Michael R. Fontham, Noel
    J. Darce, Dana Shelton, Justin A. Swaim, Clinton Andrew Vince,
    Presley Randolph Reed Jr., Jennifer Anne Morrissey, and Chad
    James Reynolds. Paul L. Zimmering entered an appearance.
    Before: HENDERSON and WILKINS, Circuit Judges, and
    SENTELLE, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Senior Circuit Judge
    SENTELLE.
    SENTELLE, Senior Circuit Judge: The Arkansas Public
    Service Commission petitions for review of a Federal Energy
    Regulatory Commission (“FERC”) final order. Entergy Servs.,
    Inc., 154 FERC ¶ 61,173 (Mar. 4, 2016), reh’g denied in part
    and granted in part, 156 FERC ¶ 61,112 (Aug. 16, 2016). In the
    order under review, FERC held that an operating company
    withdrawing from a multi-state energy system must continue to
    share the proceeds of a pre-departure settlement with the other
    member companies. The Arkansas Public Service Commission
    (the “Arkansas Commission”), acting on behalf of Arkansas
    energy consumers, contends that FERC’s order to share the
    settlement benefits and its method of allocating the benefits of
    the settlement was unlawful, arbitrary, capricious, and
    unsupported by substantial evidence. Because we conclude that
    FERC had a lawful basis to order the sharing of the benefits of
    the settlement and was reasoned in its allocation methodology,
    we deny the petition for review.
    3
    I. Background
    A. Factual History
    Beginning in 1951, six companies in Arkansas, Louisiana,
    Mississippi, and Texas (collectively, the “Operating
    Companies”) entered into an arrangement to share the costs and
    benefits of power generation and transmission. To that end, they
    formed the Entergy Corporation, a publicly held and traded
    utility holding company. The Entergy Corporation is the
    corporate parent of intervenor Entergy Services, Inc. (“Entergy
    Services”). The Operating Companies memorialized their
    arrangement in the Entergy System Agreement (“System
    Agreement”), a FERC-approved rate plan that governs the
    multi-state system’s generation and transmissions facilities
    operated as a single system (the “Entergy System”) and
    administered by Entergy Services. Over the years, Entergy
    Services supplemented the System Agreement with seven
    service schedules, MSS-1 through MSS-7, which updated the
    cost-sharing and energy capacity plan. The System Agreement
    “has been a feature of many cases before this Court.” Council
    of New Orleans v. FERC, 
    692 F.3d 172
    , 174 (D.C. Cir. 2012);
    see, e.g., Arkansas Pub. Serv. Comm’n v. FERC, 712 F. App’x
    3, 4 (D.C. Cir. 2018); Louisiana Pub. Serv. Comm’n v. FERC,
    
    522 F.3d 378
    , 383 (D.C. Cir. 2008); Louisiana Pub. Serv.
    Comm’n v. FERC, 
    174 F.3d 218
    , 220 (D.C. Cir. 1999).
    The System Agreement provided for the possibility of
    withdrawal by an Operating Company and required an eight-
    year notice of intent to withdraw by any company preparing to
    do so. On December 19, 2005, Operating Company Entergy
    Arkansas gave such a notice, announcing its intention to
    withdraw on December 18, 2013. Two years later, another
    Operating Company, Entergy Mississippi, gave a similar notice.
    The current controversy over the effects of the withdrawal
    4
    concerns a settlement entered with coal transporter Union
    Pacific in state court litigation before the withdrawal of the two
    Operating Companies.
    In April 2008, Entergy Arkansas, Entergy Services, and
    other parties settled Arkansas state court litigation against Union
    Pacific (the “Union Pacific Settlement”). The settlement, as
    relevant to the present petition for review, locked in a below-
    market rate for the rail delivery of coal by extending an Entergy
    Arkansas contract with Union Pacific to the period between July
    1, 2012 and June 30, 2015. Entergy Arkansas remained in the
    System Agreement until partway through this period.
    Under the System Agreement, the Operating Companies
    purchase excess energy from other Operating Companies at-
    cost. The service schedules set out the price for energy
    purchases.     That price incorporates the cost of coal
    transportation as one component. Entergy Arkansas was still
    participating in the System Agreement when Union Pacific
    failed to make the coal deliveries in the conduct underlying the
    settlement. Therefore, Entergy Arkansas passed a portion of the
    increased coal costs to the other Operating Companies under
    service schedule MSS-3. Likewise, prior to Entergy Arkansas’s
    departure from the System Agreement, Entergy Arkansas also
    shared its beneficial coal transportation costs under the Union
    Pacific Settlement with the other Operating Companies.
    Additionally, some of the Operating Companies had other
    mechanisms outside of the System Agreement to realize some
    of the benefits of Entergy Arkansas’s reduced coal
    transportation costs, such as shared ownership of the two
    affected plants and separate power purchasing agreements.
    However, the Union Pacific Settlement did not address Entergy
    Arkansas’s impending withdrawal from the System Agreement.
    5
    B. Procedural History
    On November 19, 2009, FERC accepted Entergy Arkansas
    and Entergy Mississippi’s notices of withdrawal from the
    Entergy System. Entergy Servs., Inc., 129 FERC ¶ 61,143 (Nov.
    19, 2009) (“Withdrawal Order”), reh’g denied, 134 FERC
    ¶ 61,075 (Feb. 1, 2011) (“Withdrawal Rehearing Order”)
    (collectively, “Withdrawal Proceedings”). In the Withdrawal
    Proceedings, FERC found that the System Agreement
    “contain[ed] no provisions requiring withdrawing Operating
    Companies to pay a fee or otherwise compensate other
    remaining Operating Companies prior to withdrawing.”
    Withdrawal Order P. 60. Accordingly, FERC held that Entergy
    Arkansas and Entergy Mississippi should not have to pay any
    exit fees to the other Operating Companies upon their departure
    from the Entergy System.
    Intervenor Louisiana Public Service Commission (the
    “Louisiana Commission”), which represents the interests of
    Louisiana’s energy consumers, filed exceptions to the
    Withdrawal Order, arguing that FERC should allocate the Union
    Pacific Settlement benefits as part of the Withdrawal
    Proceedings. FERC responded that the Louisiana Commission’s
    concerns regarding the allocation of the Union Pacific
    Settlement Benefits were “beyond the scope of this proceeding
    and are more appropriately raised” in a future proceeding
    regarding the structure of the post-withdrawal Entergy System.
    Withdrawal Rehearing Order at n.54. FERC went on to
    reinforce that it would still review “future operating
    arrangements” to ensure they were “just and reasonable” in
    accordance with FERC’s statutory obligations under 16 U.S.C.
    § 824d.
    On September 14, 2011, still concerned about the
    allocation of the Union Pacific Settlement benefits, the
    6
    Louisiana Commission filed a complaint under section 206 of
    the Federal Power Act. Louisiana Pub. Serv. Comm’n, 138
    FERC ¶ 61,029 (Jan. 19, 2012). Again, FERC reiterated that it
    was “premature” to consider the allocation of the Union Pacific
    Settlement benefits and opined that the Louisiana Commission’s
    concerns would be resolved “in the future proceeding regarding
    the structure of the post-withdrawal Entergy system.” 
    Id. at P.
    53. Prior to the start of the Withdrawal Proceedings, the
    Louisiana Commission had also raised the allocation of the
    Union Pacific Settlement benefits during a 2008 bandwidth
    proceeding, but it withdrew the issue without prejudice based on
    the expectation it would be resolved in later proceedings.
    On August 14, 2012, this Court affirmed the Withdrawal
    Proceedings, including FERC’s conclusion that the System
    Agreement does not impose an exit fee or continuing obligation
    on withdrawing Operating Companies. Council of New 
    Orleans, 692 F.3d at 174-77
    . We also recognized that FERC “must still
    review the post-withdrawal arrangements to ensure that they are
    just, reasonable and not unduly discriminatory.” 
    Id. at 177.
    In November 2012, under section 205 of the Federal
    Power Act, Entergy Services filed its proposal for its post-
    withdrawal successor plan. The successor plan included the
    necessary revisions to the System Agreement and the formation
    of a new integrated utility system (the Midcontinent Independent
    System) comprised of the remaining Operating Companies. The
    Louisiana Commission again protested the filing. For the fourth
    time, the Louisiana Commission raised the issue of the Union
    Pacific Settlement benefits. In response, the Arkansas
    Commission and Entergy Services challenged FERC’s authority
    to order Entergy Arkansas to share the Union Pacific Settlement
    benefits because Entergy Arkansas was no longer participating
    in the System Agreement. FERC established a hearing to
    address these issues. Entergy Servs., Inc., 145 FERC ¶ 61,247
    7
    (Dec. 18, 2013), reh’g denied, 153 FERC ¶ 61,154 (Nov. 9,
    2015).
    Following settlement discussions and a hearing, the
    Administrative Law Judge determined that the Union Pacific
    Settlement benefits should be allocated among the Operating
    Companies and adopted an allocation methodology. Entergy
    Servs., Inc., 149 FERC ¶ 63,022 (Dec. 12, 2014). On review
    and rehearing, FERC affirmed the findings of the Administrative
    Law Judge and rejected the challenge to its authority. Entergy
    Servs., Inc., 154 FERC ¶ 61,173 (Mar. 4, 2016), reh’g denied in
    part and granted in part, 156 FERC ¶ 61,112 (Aug. 16, 2016).
    FERC ordered Entergy Arkansas to make a compliance filing
    that would refund benefits of the Union Pacific Settlement to the
    other Operating Companies in accordance with the prescribed
    allocation method. 
    Id. The Arkansas
    Commission timely filed a petition for
    review. The Court granted leave for the Louisiana Commission,
    the Mississippi Public Service Commission, and the Council of
    the City of New Orleans to intervene on behalf of FERC and for
    Entergy Services to intervene on behalf of the Arkansas
    Commission.
    II. Analysis
    We review FERC’s final orders under the Administrative
    Procedure Act. We will vacate FERC decisions that are
    “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in
    accordance with law.” 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A). Further, we will
    uphold FERC’s factual findings if they are supported by
    substantial evidence. 16 U.S.C. § 825l(b); Town of Norwood v.
    FERC, 
    80 F.3d 526
    , 529 (D.C. Cir. 1996).
    8
    Under the Federal Power Act, FERC is required to
    ensure that electric rates are “just and reasonable.” 16 U.S.C.
    § 824d. We afford “great deference” to FERC’s decisions on
    this subject because “[t]he statutory requirement that rates be
    ‘just and reasonable’ is obviously incapable of precise judicial
    definition.” Morgan Stanley Capital Grp. Inc. v. Pub. Util. Dist.
    No. 1 of Snohomish Cty., 
    554 U.S. 527
    , 532 (2008); see Maine
    v. FERC, 
    854 F.3d 9
    , 22 (D.C. Cir. 2017). We do not ask
    whether FERC’s “decision is the best one possible or even
    whether it is better than the alternatives.” FERC v. Elec. Power
    Supply Ass’n, 
    136 S. Ct. 760
    , 782 (2016), as revised (Jan. 28,
    2016). Our review in ratemaking cases is therefore “‘limited to
    ensuring that the Commission has made a principled and
    reasoned decision supported by the evidentiary record.’”
    Southern Cal. Edison Co. v. FERC, 
    717 F.3d 177
    , 181 (D.C. Cir.
    2013) (quoting Complex Consol. Edison Co. of N.Y., Inc. v.
    FERC, 
    165 F.3d 992
    , 1000-01 (D.C. Cir. 1999)).
    The Arkansas Commission argues that FERC acted
    unlawfully, arbitrarily, and capriciously by ordering Entergy
    Arkansas to share the Union Pacific Settlement benefits with the
    Operating Companies and by the method that it adopted to
    allocate the settlement benefits. We will consider FERC’s order
    for Entergy Arkansas to share the Union Pacific Settlement
    benefits before reviewing the allocation method.
    A. Order to Share the Union Pacific Settlement
    Benefits
    The Arkansas Commission petitions for review of
    FERC’s order for Entergy Arkansas to share the Union Pacific
    Settlement benefits after its withdrawal from the Entergy System
    by arguing that the order is an unlawful exit fee and that it
    violated the filed rate doctrine. We will address each argument
    in turn.
    9
    Is sharing the settlement benefits an exit fee?
    The Arkansas Commission argues that FERC’s order
    essentially amounts to the imposition of an unlawful exit fee or
    post-withdrawal continuing obligation contrary to the
    Withdrawal Proceedings. It is undisputed that the Withdrawal
    Proceedings confirmed that Entergy Arkansas has no obligation
    to pay an exit fee and it has no continuing obligation to the
    remaining member companies of the Entergy Corporation as a
    result of its withdrawal from the System Agreement. This Court
    affirmed that conclusion. Council of New 
    Orleans, 692 F.3d at 174-77
    . However, that is not the question before us. A
    determination that a withdrawing company cannot be compelled
    to pay an exit fee is separate from the question of whether a
    sharing of a settlement of pre-split recovery constitutes such a
    forbidden exit fee. It doesn’t. By any logic, an exit fee must
    have been generated because of the exit. Had Entergy Arkansas
    remained in the cooperative group, there is little, if any, question
    that the settlement would have been shared among it and the
    other companies.
    The Withdrawal Proceedings did not settle this issue as
    the Arkansas Commission maintains. In the Withdrawal
    Proceedings, FERC put Entergy Arkansas on notice that
    allocating the Union Pacific Settlement was “beyond the scope
    of this proceeding and more appropriately raised in a future
    proceeding regarding the structure of the post-withdrawal
    Entergy system.” Withdrawal Rehearing Order n.54. Further,
    we expressly limited our decision affirming the Withdrawal
    Proceedings to FERC’s conclusions regarding “the obligation of
    withdrawing Companies under the [System] Agreement.”
    Council of New 
    Orleans, 692 F.3d at 174-77
    . We acknowledged
    that FERC would still be reviewing “post-withdrawal
    arrangements” to ensure that they are just and reasonable.
    10
    Given this history, we must consider whether FERC
    allocated the Union Pacific Settlement benefits based on its
    obligation to ensure just and reasonable rates in the post-
    withdrawal successor arrangements or as an “exit fee” from the
    System Agreement.
    All the Operating Companies were injured by Union
    Pacific’s breach of contract. FERC relied on undisputed
    evidence that the settlement was entered into for the benefits of
    the entire Entergy System. The Operating Companies’ claims
    to the settlement benefits arose from the nature of the collective
    harm from Union Pacific’s contract breach. Prior to Entergy
    Arkansas’s withdrawal from the Entergy System, the Operating
    Companies received the benefits they were due by way of the
    System Agreement’s cost-sharing mechanisms. FERC properly
    reasoned that the Operating Companies’ claims to the Union
    Pacific Settlement benefits did not arise from the System
    Agreement just because the settlement sharing was effectuated
    by the System Agreement.
    Further, the Arkansas Commission’s argument that the
    allocation method is evidence that FERC’s order is an exit fee
    is similarly unconvincing. It is true that FERC’s allocation
    method was based on a calculation that assumed that Entergy
    Arkansas remained part of the System Agreement. The use of
    that method does not require us to draw the conclusion that the
    obligation to share the benefits arises from the System
    Agreement. Rather, FERC reached a reasoned conclusion that
    using the System Agreement as a model would ensure the
    benefits would continue to flow in a “just and reasonable”
    manner.
    FERC defines an exit fee as one “imposed upon a party
    because of its exit from [the System Agreement] . . . as
    compensation for or a penalty for its departure.” This is not a
    11
    case of FERC ordering Entergy Arkansas to compensate the
    other Operating Companies as a penalty for its departure.
    Entergy Services’ original proposed successor arrangement
    would have deprived the Operating Companies of the
    compensation they were due for their injuries, while Entergy
    Arkansas would receive benefits greater than its injury. FERC
    found that this would be an unjust and unreasonable cost
    allocation.
    Because FERC was reasoned in concluding that sharing
    the Union Pacific Settlement benefits was necessary under the
    principles of equity, and was not a penalty or recompense for the
    Company’s exit from the system, we reject the Arkansas
    Commission’s argument that FERC’s order creates an unlawful
    exit fee.
    Did FERC violate the filed rate doctrine?
    We next turn to the Arkansas Commission’s assertion that
    FERC violated the filed rate doctrine by ordering Entergy
    Arkansas to share the Union Pacific Settlement benefits. Under
    that doctrine, public utilities may only charge rates filed with
    FERC. Arkansas La. Gas Co. v. Hall, 
    453 U.S. 571
    , 578 (1981).
    This assures that customers receive adequate notice of their
    utility costs. Transmission Access Policy Study Grp. v. FERC,
    
    225 F.3d 667
    , 709 (D.C. Cir. 2000) (per curiam), aff’d sub nom.
    New York v. FERC, 
    535 U.S. 1
    (2002). The Arkansas
    Commission argues that FERC’s order increases the cost to
    Arkansas consumers without notice, creating a new public utility
    rate contrary to the filed rate doctrine. We disagree.
    The filed rate doctrine has never been construed as
    requiring FERC to close its eyes to changes in circumstances
    that render a rate that was once just and reasonable but no longer
    comports with the new reality. FERC has “broad authority to
    12
    fashion equitable remedies in a variety of settings.” Columbia
    Gas Transmission Corp. v. FERC, 
    750 F.2d 105
    , 109 (D.C. Cir.
    1984).
    In this case, FERC reasons that it is not overriding a filed
    rate but merely effectuating the purpose of a non-jurisdictional
    contract, the Union Pacific Settlement. Entergy Services was a
    party to the Union Pacific Settlement, and FERC found it
    entered into the settlement on behalf of all the Operating
    Companies while they were under FERC’s jurisdiction through
    the System Agreement, a filed rate. Even though FERC, in at
    least one case, has relied on an existing filed rate provision in
    deciding not to impose post-withdrawal obligations on a party,
    that is not sufficient to limit FERC’s authority in this case.
    Midwest Indep. Transmission Sys. Operator, Inc., 124 FERC
    ¶ 61,219 at P. 173 (Sept. 3, 2008). In that decision, FERC noted
    that it was reserving its authority to impose equitable relief “in
    the future” in different circumstances, and it is not reasonable to
    extend this one-time decision to bar equitable relief in all post-
    withdrawal successor arrangements. 
    Id. We agree,
    FERC has
    the authority to fashion a remedial rate.
    Next, the Arkansas Commission points out that when the
    Union Pacific Settlement was negotiated and executed, all the
    parties knew that Entergy Arkansas would be exiting the System
    Agreement and yet the Union Pacific Settlement does not
    contain any terms about post-withdrawal obligations. Further,
    the Arkansas Commission argues that FERC cannot have
    authority over the Union Pacific Settlement unless it was
    actually filed as a rate or other amendment to the System
    Agreement. Therefore, the Arkansas Commission urges, FERC
    erred by inferring that the parties intended the settlement to be
    shared after Entergy Arkansas’s withdrawal.
    13
    However, FERC considered evidence that the whole
    Entergy System was harmed by Union Pacific’s breach.
    Accordingly, FERC inferred that the benefits of the settlement
    were meant to be shared by the entire system. In other contexts,
    FERC has exercised its authority to interpret an unfiled contract,
    even when that interpretation has implications on a filed rate, as
    part of ensuring a just and reasonable rate. See e.g., Public
    Utils. Comm’n of State of Cal. v. FERC, 
    254 F.3d 250
    , 255
    (D.C. Cir. 2001); City of Osceola v. Entergy Ark., Inc., 
    791 F.3d 904
    , 908 (8th Cir. 2015) (citing Portland Gen. Elec. Co., 72
    FERC ¶ 61,009, 61,021 n.14 (1995)). FERC’s authority extends
    to remedial jurisdiction over cost allocation even when it is not
    a filed rate, in order to prevent an unjust and unreasonable rate.
    See Louisiana Pub. Serv. 
    Comm’n, 522 F.3d at 390
    . Given the
    absence of any evidence that the parties did not intend that the
    Union Pacific Settlement benefits would continue to be shared
    between the Operating Companies, FERC was not arbitrary and
    capricious by making a decision recognizing the change in
    circumstances.
    Persuasively, even here, the Arkansas Commission and
    Entergy Services are not protesting FERC’s decision to order the
    Operating Companies to continue to share the cost of the
    Ouachita Plant transmission network upgrade as part of the
    successor arrangements. Though the Arkansas Commission and
    Entergy Services attempt to distinguish the post-withdrawal
    requirement to share the cost of the Ouachita upgrade from the
    Union Pacific Settlement benefits, both arose during Entergy
    Arkansas’s operation as a member of the System Agreement. It
    is true that System Agreement does not directly address the
    Union Pacific Settlement benefits, nor the Ouachita Plant
    upgrade cost sharing, post-withdrawal. But, FERC’s authority
    regarding the Union Pacific Settlement stems from its authority
    over the filed rate in force at the time the Operating Companies
    were injured and the Union Pacific Settlement was executed.
    14
    FERC has the obligation to review the successor
    arrangements following the withdrawal of an Operating
    Company under Federal Power Act because the conditions of the
    withdrawal can impact other market participants. See Maine
    Pub. Utilities Comm’n v. FERC, 
    454 F.3d 278
    , 285-87 (D.C.
    Cir. 2006). In this case, FERC ordered the sharing of the Union
    Pacific Settlement benefits precisely because failing to do so
    would be unjust and unreasonable to the other market
    participants who were injured by Union Pacific’s breach.
    FERC’s decision to enter a remedial order to prevent an unjust
    and unreasonable rate is not the same as overriding a filed rate.
    Therefore, because FERC did not impose an exit fee or
    override a filed rate, but effectuated a just and reasonable cost-
    benefits allocation, we deny the Arkansas Commission’s petition
    to review FERC’s order that Arkansas Entergy must share the
    Union Pacific Settlement benefits.
    B. Allocation Method
    The Arkansas Commission next petitions for review of
    FERC’s method of allocation of the Union Pacific Settlement
    benefits. We will review the method FERC adopted to allocate
    the settlement benefits and the Arkansas Commission’s
    proposed alternative before turning to FERC’s reasoning.
    FERC considered expert testimony regarding three
    valuation analyses prepared by an Entergy Services witness,
    Thomas D. Crowley. In 2008, Crowley performed an initial
    study to estimate the value of the Union Pacific Settlement as
    part of Entergy Arkansas’s prudence review to make sure the
    terms of the settlement fairly compensated it for its damages. In
    2010, Crowley updated the study with more current information
    (the “2010 Crowley Study”).
    15
    The 2010 Crowley Study quantified the hypothetical coal
    transportation costs if Entergy Arkansas did not enter into the
    Union Pacific Settlement. Without the settlement, Entergy
    Arkansas’s coal transportation contract would have expired in
    June 2011. The study assumed that Entergy Arkansas would
    have procured replacement transportation through its usual
    business practice of entering multi-year transportation contracts.
    Crowley used the rate another railroad offered Entergy Arkansas
    for coal transportation in November 2009 as the proxy for the
    contract rate that Entergy Arkansas would have likely paid had
    it entered into a replacement contract in 2011. The difference
    between that hypothetical transportation contract and the more
    advantageous contract afforded by the Union Pacific Settlement
    was used to define the benefits of the settlement. FERC adopted
    the results of the 2010 Crowley Study in order to quantify the
    benefits of the Union Pacific Settlement.
    In the alternative, the Arkansas Commission advances a
    2014 study also performed by Crowley (the “2014 Crowley
    Study”) as a better estimate of the benefits of the bargain. As it
    turns out, coal transportation prices were lower in 2012 than the
    2010 Crowley Study predicted. Therefore, the 2014 Crowley
    Study incorporates that price difference in its result, reducing the
    valuation of the Union Pacific Settlement benefits compared to
    the 2010 Crowley Study’s prediction.
    FERC reasoned that the 2014 Crowley Study was not a
    good estimate of the benefits of the bargain. Specifically, the
    2014 Crowley Study assumes that Entergy Arkansas knew that
    the transportation prices would drop in 2012. To perform the
    valuation, Crowley combined a hypothetical transportation
    contract for 2011-2012 and a follow-on contract from 2012-
    2015, which would take advantage of the reduced rates available
    in 2012. FERC dismissed this study as suffering from
    “hindsight bias” that does not reflect the reality of what Entergy
    16
    Arkansas would have paid for coal transportation in the absence
    of the settlement. Without the Union Pacific Settlement, FERC
    found it likely that Entergy Arkansas would have entered into a
    multi-year transportation contract in 2011 and not benefited
    from the price dip in 2012. To reach its findings, FERC
    considered evidence of actual contracting practices and the
    testimony of an economics expert. Further, there was no
    evidence that Entergy Arkansas could have anticipated the 2012
    drop in coal transportation prices and made different contracting
    decisions.
    FERC’s adoption of the 2010 Crowley Study to allocate the
    Union Pacific Settlement benefits was the product of a reasoned
    decision and based on substantial evidence. Therefore, we
    affirm FERC’s use of this allocation method.
    III. Conclusion
    For the reasons set forth above, we hold that FERC’s order
    for Entergy Arkansas to share the Union Pacific Settlement
    benefits and its method for allocating the settlement was not
    arbitrary, capricious, or contrary to law. Accordingly, the
    Arkansas Commission’s petition for review is denied.