United States v. Carlos Aguiar ( 2018 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued February 8, 2018                   Decided July 3, 2018
    No. 15-3027
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    APPELLEE
    v.
    CARLOS AGUIAR, ALSO KNOWN AS LOS,
    APPELLANT
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:04-cr-00355-3)
    Erica J. Hashimoto, appointed by the court, argued the
    cause for appellant. On the briefs were Steven H. Goldblatt,
    appointed by the court, Amit R. Vora, Supervisory Attorney,
    and Caleb Redmond and Joseph Flanagan, Student Counsel.
    Carlos Aguilar, pro se, filed the brief for appellant.
    James A. Ewing, Assistant U.S. Attorney, argued the cause
    for appellee. With him on the brief were Jessie K. Liu, U.S.
    Attorney, and Elizabeth Trosman, T. Anthony Quinn, and
    Nicholas P. Coleman, Assistant U.S. Attorneys. Suzanne G.
    Curt, Assistant U.S. Attorney, entered an appearance.
    2
    Before: ROGERS, GRIFFITH, and SRINIVASAN, Circuit
    Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge ROGERS.
    Opinion, dissenting in part, filed by Circuit Judge
    GRIFFITH.
    ROGERS, Circuit Judge: This is an appeal from the denial
    of a collateral attack pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
     on a
    conviction by a jury of crimes relating to a series of armed bank
    robberies. Carlos Aguiar contends the district court erred in
    denying the motion because his trial and appellate counsel
    failed to object to the closure of voir dire, in violation of his
    Sixth Amendment right to a public trial, and because trial
    counsel failed to explain the sentencing consequences under 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c) of rejecting the government’s plea offer and
    going to trial, in violation of his Sixth Amendment right to the
    effective assistance of counsel. The first contention fails in
    light of Weaver v. Massachusetts, 
    137 S. Ct. 1899
     (2017),
    because Aguiar has not shown prejudicial error from the voir
    dire closure. The second contention regarding the plea offer
    requires a remand because “the motion and the files and records
    of the case” do not “conclusively show” Aguiar is “entitled to
    no relief.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (b).
    I.
    In superseding indictments, Aguiar and five co-defendants
    were charged with RICO and armed bank robbery conspiracies,
    two armed bank robberies, three counts of unlawful possession
    of a firearm by a convicted felon, and two counts of possession
    or use of a fully automatic assault weapon in connection with a
    crime of violence in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(1)(B)(ii).
    Earlier Aguiar had rejected the government’s offer of a plea to
    3
    three counts: RICO conspiracy, felon in possession of a
    firearm, and § 924(c)(1)(B)(ii), with a likely total sentence of
    between 47 and 51 years, including a mandatory 30 years on
    the § 924(c) count. A jury found Aguiar guilty of all charges
    except possession or use of fully automatic assault weapons,
    instead finding him guilty of possession or use of semi-
    automatic weapons in violation of §§ 924(c)(1)(B)(i) & (C)(i).
    He was sentenced to an aggregate term of 60 years’
    imprisonment, including mandatory consecutive terms of 10
    and 25 years’ imprisonment for the § 924(c) convictions, and
    ordered to pay restitution of $361,000. On direct appeal, this
    court affirmed the judgment of conviction. See United States
    v. Burwell, et al., 
    642 F.3d 1062
     (D.C. Cir. 2011), aff’d, 
    690 F.3d 500
     (D.C. Cir. 2012).
    Thereafter, on September 12, 2012, Aguiar, pro se, filed a
    motion pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (a) to vacate the judgment
    of conviction on the grounds of ineffective assistance of trial
    counsel. He argued that counsel failed to investigate and object
    to the exclusion of Aguiar’s family members from voir dire, in
    violation of his Sixth Amendment public-trial right, and failed
    to explain to him the sentencing consequences for the two
    § 924(c) counts of rejecting the plea offer and going to trial, in
    violation of his Sixth Amendment right to effective assistance
    of counsel. Under the two-part test of Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687 (1984), Aguiar had to show
    counsel’s performance was deficient “under prevailing
    professional norms,” 
    id. at 688
    , and that the deficient
    performance was prejudicial, creating a “reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the
    result of the proceeding would have been different,” 
    id. at 694
    .
    The district court denied Aguiar’s motion without an
    evidentiary hearing because he had not proffered factual
    allegations to require a hearing and “the files and records of the
    case” showed he was entitled to no relief. United States v.
    4
    Aguiar, 
    82 F. Supp. 3d 70
    , 74, 76 (D.D.C. Feb. 12, 2015); 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (b). As the court resolved in United States v.
    Abney, 
    812 F.3d 1079
    , 1086–87 (D.C. Cir. 2016), our review
    of the denial of a § 2255 motion on the ground of ineffective
    assistance of counsel is de novo. See United States v.
    Stubblefield, 
    820 F.3d 445
    , 448 (D.C. Cir. 2016) (citing
    Abney). The district court’s denial of an evidentiary hearing is
    reviewed for abuse of discretion. See United States v.
    Morrison, 
    98 F.3d 619
    , 625–26 (D.C. Cir. 1996).1
    II.
    The protections afforded by the Sixth Amendment to the
    Constitution that “the accused shall enjoy the right to a . . .
    public trial” extend to voir dire. Presley v. Georgia, 
    558 U.S. 209
    , 213 (2010). Voir dire is “presumptively . . . a public
    process with exceptions only for good cause shown.” Press-
    Enterprise Co. v. Sup. Ct. of Cal., 
    464 U.S. 501
    , 505 (1984).
    Consequently, “the party seeking to close the hearing must
    advance an overriding interest that is likely to be prejudiced,
    the closure must be no broader than necessary to protect that
    interest, the trial court must consider reasonable alternatives to
    closing the proceeding, and it must make findings adequate to
    support the closure.” Waller v. Georgia, 
    467 U.S. 39
    , 48
    1
    Upon Aguiar’s motion for a certificate of appealability
    (“COA”), see 
    28 U.S.C. § 2253
    (c), a special panel initially granted
    the motion only on Aguiar’s voir dire closure challenge. Responding
    to his motion for partial reconsideration, the panel referred all of his
    challenges to the merits panel. The government, which objected in
    the district court that Aguiar’s reconsideration motion was untimely,
    has abandoned that position on appeal. Appellee’s Br. 40. The court
    has no occasion to address whether, as Aguiar maintains, a merits
    panel has inherent authority to expand a COA issued by a special
    panel.
    5
    (1984); see CNN v. United States, 
    824 F.2d 1046
    , 1048 (D.C.
    Cir. 1987).
    It is undisputed that the courtroom where voir dire was
    conducted for the trial of Aguiar and his co-defendants was
    closed, that defense counsel did not object, and that the district
    court did not conduct the Waller test. According to affidavits
    of Aguiar’s mother and sister, when they attempted to observe
    voir dire on the first day of trial, a court security officer
    “informed [them] that [they] could not enter the courtroom
    because the jury selection had started, and that nobody was
    being allowed to enter until the jury selection was finished.”
    Affid. of Lily Aguiar, at 1 (Sept. 12, 2012); see Affid. of
    Mariana Aguiar, at 1 (Sept. 12, 2012). The district court
    concluded that the alleged closure was “so trivial that it did not
    violate the Sixth Amendment,” Aguiar, 82 F. Supp. 3d at 84–
    85 (citing United States v. Perry, 
    479 F.3d 885
    , 890 (D.C. Cir.
    2007)), and confirmed it had “never ordered that the courtroom
    be closed” and “that Aguiar’s mother and sister were not
    permitted into the courtroom by a security officer who was not
    acting under the authority of the [district] [c]ourt,” id. at 84.
    When, as here, a defendant first objects to a voir dire
    closure in a collateral attack on his conviction, the Supreme
    Court instructed in Weaver v. Massachusetts, 
    137 S. Ct. 1899
    ,
    1907 (2017), that, notwithstanding a structural error, see 
    id. at 1908
    , “not every public-trial violation will in fact lead to a
    fundamentally unfair trial” or “always deprive[] the defendant
    of a reasonable probability of a different outcome,” 
    id. at 1911
    .
    [W]hen a defendant raises a public-trial violation via
    an ineffective-assistance-of-counsel claim, Strickland
    prejudice is not shown automatically. Instead, the
    burden is on the defendant to show either a reasonable
    probability of a different outcome in his or her case
    6
    or, as the Court has assumed for these purposes, to
    show that the particular public-trial violation was so
    serious as to render his or her trial fundamentally
    unfair.
    
    Id.
     (internal citation omitted). The Court rejected Weaver’s
    challenge to the closure of voir dire because he had “offered no
    evidence or legal argument” that but for counsel’s error there
    was a reasonable probability of a different outcome, or that his
    trial was rendered fundamentally unfair. 
    Id.
     at 1912–13.
    In circumstances strikingly similar to Aguiar’s, Weaver’s
    mother and her minister were excluded from the courtroom for
    two days during voir dire. 
    Id. at 1913
    . “The closure was
    limited to the jury voir dire; the courtroom remained open
    during the evidentiary phase of the trial; the closure decision
    apparently was made by court officers rather than the judge;
    there were many members of the venire who did not become
    jurors but who did observe the proceedings; and there was a
    record made of the proceedings that does not indicate any basis
    for concern, other than the closure itself.” 
    Id.
     Weaver made
    “no suggestion that any juror lied during voir dire; no
    suggestion of misbehavior by the prosecutor, judge, or any
    other party; and no suggestion that any of the participants failed
    to approach their duties with the neutrality and serious purpose
    that our system demands.” 
    Id.
    Assuming Aguiar’s counsel’s failure to object to the
    closure of voir dire constituted deficient performance under
    Strickland’s first prong, Weaver is dispositive of Strickland’s
    second prong. Aguiar proffered no evidence that had the
    district court conducted voir dire in open court, there was a
    reasonable probability the result of the proceeding would have
    been different, or that the voir dire proceedings were
    fundamentally unfair.       He, like Weaver, suggests no
    7
    misconduct by any party. The closed proceedings were held
    on the record, in the presence of all parties and their counsel,
    and Aguiar points to nothing in the closed proceedings that
    would remove his challenge from the reach of Weaver. The
    evidentiary and sentencing phases of the trial were held in open
    court, as were peremptory strikes and the district court’s final
    rulings on pretrial motions. Aguiar’s suggestion that during
    certain gaps in the closed voir dire proceedings the district
    court impermissibly discussed ongoing logistical, procedural,
    and evidentiary issues with the parties overlooks the record
    showing that the district court used these breaks to reference
    issues for final resolution later in open court. As in Weaver,
    then, Aguiar “does not indicate any basis for concern, other
    than the closure itself.” 
    Id.
     Accordingly, the district court
    properly found that he failed to show the requisite prejudice
    under Strickland.
    III.
    The Sixth Amendment right to the effective assistance of
    counsel extends to the “critical stage” of plea bargaining.
    Lafler v. Cooper, 
    566 U.S. 156
    , 162–63, 165 (2012).
    Constitutionally adequate representation requires counsel to
    adhere to “prevailing professional norms” and thereby “play[]
    a role that is critical to the ability of the adversarial system to
    produce just results.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 685, 688
    . The
    Supreme Court concluded “the proper standard for attorney
    performance is that of reasonably effective assistance,” 
    id. at 687
    , with the consequence that counsel’s representation is
    constitutionally deficient if it falls “below an objective standard
    of reasonableness,” Hill v. Lockhart, 
    474 U.S. 52
    , 57 (1985);
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    687–88. Reasonably effective
    assistance requires that counsel be more than a mere bystander
    and avoid making “errors so serious that counsel was not
    8
    functioning as the ‘counsel’ guaranteed the defendant by the
    Sixth Amendment.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 687
    .
    The duty to provide reasonably effective representation at
    sentencing presumes knowledge of statutory penalties and
    familiarity with the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines. See Abney,
    812 F.3d at 1089; United States v. Gaviria, 
    116 F.3d 1498
    ,
    1512 (D.C. Cir. 1997). Representation is deficient when
    counsel fails to protect his client’s interests in accord with the
    prevailing norms for criminal defense counsel or offers a
    “‘plainly incorrect’ estimate of the likely sentence due to
    ignorance of applicable law of which he ‘should have been
    aware.’” United States v. Booze, 
    293 F.3d 516
    , 518 (D.C. Cir.
    2002) (quoting Gaviria, 
    116 F.3d at 1512
    ). The former
    situation is illustrated in Abney, 812 F.3d at 1092, where
    counsel’s failure to seek a continuance of sentencing so his
    client could benefit from a likely imminent favorable
    amendment to the Sentencing Guidelines, as other defense
    counsel had done, meant Abney was unable to benefit from a
    five-year reduction in a mandatory minimum that would have
    been available. The latter situation is illustrated in Booze, 
    293 F.3d at
    518–19, where counsel’s erroneous advice about a
    likely sentence upon conviction at trial resulted in the
    defendant rejecting a plea offer involving a sentence two-thirds
    lower than the sentence that was imposed after trial. Similarly,
    in Gaviria, 
    116 F.3d at 1512
    , counsel’s advice, contrary to the
    court’s precedent, that his client would be sentenced as a career
    offender, and thereby face thirty years to life imprisonment,
    resulted in Gaviria’s rejection of a plea offer with a likely
    sentence of fifteen to twenty-two years’ imprisonment.
    The Supreme Court has clarified that counsel’s
    representational duty extends to advising the defendant about
    the consequences of pleading guilty beyond the criminal
    conviction itself. In Padilla v. Kentucky, 
    559 U.S. 356
    , 366
    (2010), the Court concluded that even though removal is a civil
    9
    proceeding, “advice regarding deportation is not categorically
    removed from the ambit of the Sixth Amendment right to
    counsel.” Because the law has “enmeshed criminal convictions
    and the penalty of deportation,” 
    id.
     at 365–66, and because
    “deportation is a particularly severe penalty,” 
    id. at 365
    (internal quotation marks and citation omitted), the Court held
    counsel’s failure to advise the defendant that pleading guilty
    would make him eligible for deportation was contrary to
    reasonable professional norms under Strickland’s first prong,
    
    id.
     at 368–69. Counsel must advise defendants of “clear” and
    “easily     determined”      immigration-related      collateral
    consequences of entering a guilty plea. 
    Id.
     Because “there is
    no relevant difference between an act of commission and an act
    of omission in this context,” 
    id. at 370
     (internal quotation
    marks and citation omitted), the Court rejected the
    government’s view that Strickland should be limited to
    situations where the defendant has received “affirmative
    misadvice” on matters in the criminal case, 
    id.
     at 369–70.
    Aguiar contends he was denied the effective assistance of
    counsel when trial counsel failed to explain to him that, upon
    rejecting the plea offer and going to trial, the government’s
    superseding indictment would include more than one § 924(c)
    count and increase his mandatory minimum sentencing
    exposure, even to as much as life imprisonment. He maintains
    his “counsel needed only elementary reasoning to know what
    would happen if Aguiar rejected the plea offer.” Appellant’s
    Br. 49. In an affidavit attached to his § 2255 motion, Aguiar
    states:
    My attorney . . . informed me verbally that the
    government had offered me a thirty (30) year
    [mandatory minimum] plea to resolve my case. He
    failed to inform me and explain to me the
    consequences of the consecutive sentences exposure[]
    10
    I was actually facing, if I was convicted at trial. He
    failed to advise me regarding the d[e]sirability of
    accepting the plea offered, rather than to proceed to
    trial. Had I been aware[] that I was actually facing a
    total of 35-years for the two (2) § 924(c) counts
    consecutively with an additional 30-years for the
    remaining counts, I would ha[ve] accepted the 30-year
    plea offer and pleaded guilty in a timely manner
    instead of proceeding to trial.
    The district court rejected Aguiar’s argument without
    holding an evidentiary hearing, reasoning that Aguiar’s
    “counsel’s performance did not fall below an objective
    standard of reasonableness under prevailing professional
    norms by failing to explain to him the sentencing implications
    of violations to which he was not charged at the time that the
    plea offer was extended and expired without acceptance.”
    Aguiar, 82 F. Supp. 3d at 80.
    Even assuming the absence of pending charges would
    distinguish Aguiar’s circumstances from those of the
    defendants in Abney, Booze, and Gaviria, the question after
    Padilla is whether there were “clear” and “easily determined”
    severe sentencing consequences of Aguiar’s rejection of the
    plea offer. Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at
    368–69. The indictment
    pending at the time of the plea offer repeatedly described
    Aguiar’s involvement in four armed bank robberies: it stated
    three times that Aguiar acted “while armed with firearms,”
    once that he “equi[pped] [himself] with handguns, pistols,
    [and] assault weapons,” three times that he was “armed with
    assault weapons and pistols,” three times that he “demand[ed]
    money at gunpoint,” and once that he “hid . . . weapons.”
    Indictment at 2–8 (Aug. 5, 2004). The references to possession
    and use of a firearm during commission of a violent crime
    would alert competent counsel that the government had
    11
    grounds to seek Aguiar’s indictment on multiple counts of
    violating § 924(c). Doing so would be consistent with
    prosecutorial policy on firearms offenses in the United States
    Attorneys’ Manual.2 But even if the indictment alone did not
    alert counsel, the plea offer did. Counsel did not have to be
    clairvoyant. The plea offer included a § 924(c) count and
    stated that the government would “not file additional § 924(c)
    violations” if Aguiar accepted the plea offer. Plea Offer at 2
    (Sept. 17, 2004) (emphasis added).
    In Padilla, the Supreme Court, in reaffirming that
    “negotiation of a plea bargain is a critical phase of litigation for
    2
    Section 112 of the United States Attorneys’ Manual, Criminal
    Resource Manual (1997), states in relevant part:
    Charges under 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c) can be filed whenever a
    firearm is used or carried during the course of a violent or
    drug trafficking crime. The mandatory consecutive and
    enhanced punishment under this section, which can
    significantly increase a sentence especially where firearms
    are used in numerous criminal acts of the gang, make this
    statute one of the most potent tools in prosecuting gang
    activity, especially those engaged in multiple criminal acts.
    . . . Firearms violations should be aggressively used in
    prosecuting violent crime. They are generally simple and
    quick to prove. The mandatory and enhanced punishments
    for many firearms violations can be used as leverage to
    gain plea bargaining and cooperation from offenders.
    Available at www.justice.gov/usam/criminal-resource-manual-112-
    firearms-charges. Similarly, just months prior to Aguiar’s arrest and
    indictment, the Attorney General “strongly encourag[ed]” the use of
    “statutory enhancements” like § 924(c). Hon. John Ashcroft, U.S.
    Dep’t of Justice, Memorandum from Attorney General Setting Forth
    Charging & Plea Policies, 16 F. Sentencing Rep. 129, 131 (Sept. 22,
    2003).
    12
    purposes of the Sixth Amendment right to effective assistance
    of counsel,” concluded that counsel’s Sixth Amendment duty
    to provide reasonable assistance to his client extends beyond
    the pending charges in an indictment. 
    559 U.S. at 373
    .
    Although at the time the plea offer was pending Aguiar had yet
    to be indicted for violating § 924(c), it would have been “clear”
    and “easily determined” by competent counsel that upon
    rejection of the plea offer the government would seek a
    superseding indictment charging Aguiar with more than one
    § 924(c) count and that upon his conviction on both counts the
    “severe” sentencing consequences, id. at 365, extended to
    mandatory life imprisonment under § 924(c)(i)(C)(ii). Even if
    Aguiar were to be convicted only of possession or use of semi-
    automatic weapons, his mandatory sentence would increase to
    35 years’ imprisonment under §§ 924(c)(1)(B)(i), (C)(i).
    Reasonably effective assistance under Strickland’s first prong
    required counsel to advise Aguiar of these sentencing
    consequences of rejecting the plea offer. A failure to do so is
    legally indistinguishable from affirmatively misinforming the
    defendant as a result of ignorance of relevant law. See id. at
    370.
    Whether Aguiar can also show prejudice under
    Strickland’s second prong depends on whether there is a
    reasonable probability that the “outcome of the plea process
    would have been different with competent advice.” Lafler, 
    566 U.S. at 163
    . That is, “but for the ineffective advice of counsel
    there is a reasonable probability that . . . the defendant would
    have accepted the plea and the prosecution would not have
    withdrawn it . . . , that the court would have accepted its terms,
    and that the conviction or sentence, or both, under the offer’s
    terms would have been less severe than under the judgment and
    sentence that in fact were imposed.” 
    Id. at 164
    .
    13
    Aguiar points to the fact that the “loss of the plea
    opportunity led to a trial resulting in a conviction on more
    serious charges [and] the imposition of a more severe
    sentence,” namely, 60 years’ imprisonment (including 35
    years’ mandatory minimum imprisonment on the § 924(c)
    counts). Appellant’s Br. 51 (quoting Lafler, 
    566 U.S. at 168
    ).
    Had he accepted the plea offer, Aguiar faced a mandatory
    minimum sentence of 30 years for one count of possession or
    use of a fully automatic assault weapon during a crime of
    violence under § 924(c)(1)(B)(ii). By rejecting the plea offer
    and going to trial on two counts of § 924(c), upon conviction
    he faced either mandatory life for possession or use of a fully
    automatic assault weapon, or a 35-year mandatory minimum
    (five years greater than under the plea offer) for possession or
    use of a semi-automatic assault weapon. Had he known that by
    going to trial he risked these “severe” mandatory sentencing
    consequences, Lafler, 
    566 U.S. at 166
    , he maintains there is a
    “reasonable probability” he would have accepted the plea offer,
    
    id. at 164
    .
    The government responds that Aguiar cannot show either
    deficiency or prejudice under Strickland because he was
    informed of the risk of additional § 924(c) charges prior to
    rejecting the plea offer. The record evidence on which the
    government relies is less illuminating than the government
    suggests. At a September 2004 status hearing on the last day
    the plea offer was available, the prosecutor stated that the
    government would “likely . . . supersede with a RICO
    indictment,” which “will also add other incidents, including
    two incidents of assault.” Status Hg. Tr. at 11 (Sept. 27, 2004).
    At no point did the prosecutor mention the possibility and
    sentencing implications of multiple § 924(c) convictions.
    Rather, the prosecutor only stated that the government would
    add “other incidents” to the four already-charged bank
    robberies.
    14
    At a January 2005 status hearing, after Aguiar had rejected
    the plea offer and a superseding indictment had been filed
    charging him with two violations of § 924(c), neither the
    prosecutor nor the district court mentioned that upon
    conviction Aguiar would face mandatory life imprisonment for
    possession or use of a fully automatic assault weapon, or five
    additional years of mandatory imprisonment upon conviction
    of possession or use of a semi-automatic assault weapon. The
    district court commendably sought to “to discuss the pleas and
    put them on the record” in order to ensure no defendant, if
    convicted at trial, would claim in a later § 2255 motion “that
    they did not get a full discussion of the plea.” Status Hg. Tr. at
    15 (Jan. 31, 2005). But when Aguiar and his counsel were
    invited to step forward, no mention was made of mandatory
    minimum sentences of life imprisonment or an additional five
    years. The prosecutor stated that Aguiar “is charged with
    having personally participated in four of the bank robberies,”
    that a plea offer was made to one count of § 924(c), id. at 33,
    and that Aguiar’s likely Guidelines sentence under the plea was
    between about 35 and 37 years (including the 30-year
    mandatory minimum for the one § 924(c) violation), with the
    possibility of 30 years to life imprisonment if he were found to
    be a career offender, id. at 34. Aguiar’s counsel stated without
    elaboration that he had discussed with Aguiar career offender
    status, the difference between a RICO conspiracy and the drug
    conspiracy, and what § 924(c) involves. Id. at 35. Aguiar
    confirmed that he had this discussion with counsel but he too
    did not elaborate. Id. When the district court inquired what
    would happen at trial, the prosecutor stated, referring to a
    sentencing analysis:
    The differences mainly . . . would be three levels for
    acceptance of responsibility and . . . whether or not
    there are one or more than one conviction under
    15
    § 924(c). But frankly, Your Honor, adding, all it
    really does to the calculation is add back in the three
    additional level[s] that he otherwise would get for
    acceptance of responsibility, and so his new range
    would be 457 to 481 months [38 to 40 years].
    Id. at 35–36. The record on appeal does not include the
    prosecutor’s sentencing analysis nor otherwise indicate it was
    made part of the record of this status hearing. Absent
    elaboration of the advice counsel gave Aguiar about § 924(c),
    this colloquy does not show that he was specifically advised of
    the    mandatory     minimum,       consecutive,    sentencing
    consequences of rejecting the plea offer, including life
    imprisonment upon conviction of two § 924(c) counts.
    What Aguiar needed to know before he decided whether
    or not to accept the plea offer was the worst-case scenario if he
    rejected the plea and went to trial. Although this “court must
    indulge a strong presumption that counsel’s conduct falls
    within the wide range of reasonable professional assistance,”
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 689
    , “[t]he record is quite sketchy
    regarding plea discussions,” United States v. Winstead, 
    890 F.3d 1082
    , 1088 (D.C. Cir. 2018). “[T]he motion and the files
    and records of the case” do not “conclusively show” Aguiar
    was advised that a consequence of rejecting the plea offer was
    mandatory life imprisonment or at least a longer mandatory
    minimum sentence. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (b). Consequently, the
    district court erred in denying his ineffective assistance of
    counsel claim without holding an evidentiary hearing given the
    inconclusiveness of the record and the failure to apply the legal
    standard announced in Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 365
    , 368–69.
    Therefore, we remand for an evidentiary hearing on this part of
    Aguiar’s Sixth Amendment challenge. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (b);
    cf. Winstead, 890 F.3d at 1088 (citing United States v. Rashad,
    
    331 F.3d 908
    , 910 (D.C. Cir. 2003)). Aguiar will have the
    16
    opportunity to proffer any “contemporaneous evidence” about
    “how he would have pleaded but for his attorney’s [alleged]
    deficiencies,” as did the defendant in Lee v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
    , 1967 (2017).
    Our colleague’s partial dissent is twice flawed. First, our
    colleague ignores that the district court’s reason for denying an
    evidentiary hearing was erroneous as a matter of law, in view
    of the inconclusive state of the record and the standard
    announced in Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 365
    , 368–69, and that such
    error was necessarily an abuse of discretion. See, e.g., Koon v.
    United States, 
    518 U.S. 81
    , 100 (1996) (citing Cooter & Gell
    v. Hartmarx Corp., 
    496 U.S. 384
    , 405 (1990)); Kickapoo Tribe
    v. Babbitt, 
    43 F.3d 1491
    , 1497 (D.C. Cir. 1995). Second, our
    colleague would affirm the district court and hold that Aguiar
    has not established Strickland prejudice for lack of
    contemporaneous evidence. See Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1967. This
    misreads Lee. In Lee, the Supreme Court addressed the
    contemporaneous evidence that had been produced at the
    evidentiary hearing on Lee’s § 2255 claim of ineffective
    assistance of counsel, id. at 1967–68; such a hearing has yet to
    be held on Aguiar’s § 2255 motion. The question now is
    whether Aguiar has made sufficient allegations to warrant an
    evidentiary hearing to prove his claim, not whether he has
    satisfied his ultimate burden of proof. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (b).
    Our colleague would evidently conclude that Aguiar could not
    show prejudice even if his counsel never advised of the
    § 924(c) sentencing risk and it were clear Aguiar would have
    accepted the plea had that advice been given because Aguiar
    did not contemporaneously state he would have accepted the
    plea. Nothing in Lee supports this approach. The gravamen of
    Aguiar’s claim is that because of counsel’s deficiency, he had
    no reason to suspect he needed to make such a statement, and
    thus did not know the full consequence of his decision to reject
    the plea. The Supreme Court did not suggest in Lee that a
    17
    defendant must hypothesize his counsel’s advice might be
    erroneous and state contemporaneously that his plea decision
    would differ if that were so.
    Accordingly, we affirm the denial of Aguiar’s Sixth
    Amendment challenge on the ground of voir dire closure, and
    we reverse and remand the plea bargaining challenge.
    GRIFFITH, Circuit Judge, dissenting in part: I cannot join
    Part III of the majority opinion. Even assuming that Aguiar’s
    counsel performed deficiently when explaining the plea offer,
    Aguiar failed to present sufficient evidence of prejudice. The
    only evidence Aguiar advanced to make this showing was an
    affidavit he executed years after his conviction. The Supreme
    Court has held that such post hoc assertions, without more, are
    insufficient to show prejudice. I see no abuse of discretion in
    the district court’s decision to forgo an evidentiary hearing, and
    I would affirm its judgment in full.
    *       *       *
    Aguiar petitioned for relief under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    . In this
    context, we review for abuse of discretion the district court’s
    decision to deny an evidentiary hearing. See United States v.
    Morrison, 
    98 F.3d 619
    , 625 (D.C. Cir. 1996) (collecting cases).
    The district court’s decision not to hold a hearing should be
    “generally respected as a sound exercise of discretion,”
    especially where, as here, “the judge deciding the section 2255
    motion also presided at petitioner’s trial.” United States v.
    Gooch, 
    842 F.3d 1274
    , 1280 n.3 (D.C. Cir. 2016). Our cases
    have repeatedly stressed that this standard is highly deferential.
    See, e.g., United States v. Baxter, 
    761 F.3d 17
    , 25 n.5 (D.C. Cir.
    2014); United States v. Toms, 
    396 F.3d 427
    , 437 (D.C. Cir.
    2005); United States v. Pollard, 
    959 F.2d 1011
    , 1030-31 (D.C.
    Cir. 1992). Indeed, one is hard-pressed to identify a single case
    over the past several decades in which we have found such an
    abuse of discretion.
    Although the majority acknowledges that we review for
    abuse of discretion, Maj. Op. at 4, it does not seem to apply that
    standard. Instead, the majority reverses the district court and
    remands the case because the record is “quite sketchy regarding
    plea discussions.” See id. at 15. This standard is drawn from
    cases in which defendants brought ineffective-assistance
    claims on direct appeal, not on collateral review under § 2255.
    2
    See id. (relying on United States v. Winstead, No. 12-3036, slip
    op. at 13 (D.C. Cir. May 25, 2018), and United States v.
    Rashad, 
    331 F.3d 908
    , 912 (D.C. Cir. 2003)). These cases do
    not provide the correct standard for determining whether to
    remand Aguiar’s claim. When a defendant raises an
    ineffective-assistance claim on direct appeal, our “normal
    practice” is to remand when we “cannot definitely reject” the
    claim. Winstead, slip op. at 13 (citing Rashad, 331 F.3d at 912).
    We follow that practice because the district court is the forum
    best suited to pass on such claims in the first instance. See
    United States v. Eshetu, 
    863 F.3d 946
    , 957 (D.C. Cir. 2017).
    Here, however, the majority concludes in the § 2255 context
    that the district court abused its discretion by failing to hold an
    evidentiary hearing. I see no basis for that conclusion.
    To succeed on his ineffective-assistance claim, Aguiar
    must satisfy both of Strickland’s prongs: he must show that his
    lawyer’s performance was deficient and that this deficiency
    prejudiced his defense. See Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687, 697 (1984). Here, the majority did not need to
    address the performance prong because, even assuming a
    deficient performance, the record contains virtually no
    evidence of prejudice.
    To establish prejudice, Aguiar “must show that there is a
    reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional
    errors, the result of the proceeding would have been different.”
    
    Id. at 694
    . The probability of a different result must be
    “substantial, not just conceivable.” Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 112 (2011). This showing is almost as demanding as
    a “more-probably-than-not standard.” 
    Id. at 111-12
    . In the
    plea-offer context, Aguiar must show a “reasonable
    probability” that he would have accepted the plea offer if his
    attorney had performed adequately. See, e.g., Lafler v. Cooper,
    
    566 U.S. 156
    , 164 (2012). Specifically, he must present
    3
    evidence that he would have accepted the plea offer if his
    lawyer had correctly explained the sentencing exposure he
    could face if the government sought a new indictment charging
    him with additional firearm crimes. Aguiar failed to present
    any evidence that could make this showing. 1
    Aguiar’s only evidence that he would have accepted the
    plea offer is his affidavit, which he executed approximately six
    years after his conviction. There he said: “Had I been aware[]
    that I was actually facing a total of 35-years for the two (2)
    § 924(c) counts, consecutively with an additional 30-years for
    the remaining counts, I would ha[ve] accepted the 30-year plea
    offer and pleaded guilty in a timely manner instead of
    proceeding to trial.” See Maj. Op. at 10. The Supreme Court
    has told us that these assertions, without more, are insufficient
    to show prejudice.
    In Lee v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
     (2017), the Court
    set out a clear rule for assessing prejudice in this plea-offer
    context. We must look for contemporaneous evidence of
    whether the defendant would have accepted his plea offer; the
    defendant’s assertions after conviction are not enough: “Courts
    should not upset a plea solely because of post hoc assertions
    from a defendant about how he would have pleaded but for his
    attorney’s deficiencies. Judges should instead look to
    1
    Aguiar must also “demonstrate a reasonable probability the
    plea would have been entered without the prosecution canceling it or
    the trial court refusing to accept it.” Missouri v. Frye, 
    566 U.S. 134
    ,
    147 (2012). The Supreme Court has emphasized that this “showing
    is of particular importance because a defendant has no right to be
    offered a plea, nor a federal right that the judge accept it.” 
    Id.
     at 148-
    49 (internal citations omitted). Aguiar did not even attempt to make
    this showing, and the majority pays this shortcoming no mind. This
    failure alone justifies affirming the district court.
    4
    contemporaneous evidence to substantiate a defendant’s
    expressed preferences.” Id. at 1967. 2
    The record contains no contemporaneous evidence that
    Aguiar ever considered accepting his plea offer. In fact, it
    suggests just the opposite. At the January 2005 status hearing,
    the district court repeatedly emphasized that the hearing was
    intended to ensure that the defendants had understood their plea
    offers and would not later claim in a § 2255 challenge that they
    “did not get a full discussion of the plea.” J.A. 157. By that
    time, Aguiar had already been charged under a superseding
    indictment with the additional firearm crime—the charge at the
    center of Aguiar’s § 2255 claim. See J.A. 76-109. Thus, Aguiar
    already knew at the status hearing that he would face more
    charges at trial than he would have under the plea offer. Yet
    even with this information, Aguiar never once hinted during
    the hearing that he had considered accepting the plea offer. Nor
    did he express any surprise or concern about the additional
    firearm charge in the superseding indictment.
    At the hearing, Aguiar’s counsel confirmed to the district
    court that he and Aguiar had discussed the plea offer, Aguiar’s
    career offender status, and what § 924(c) involves. J.A. 176-
    77. Counsel also suggested to the court that Aguiar’s rejection
    2
    The majority suggests that Lee is inapplicable because the
    defendant in that case had received an evidentiary hearing but Aguiar
    has not. See Maj. Op. at 16. That reading is unpersuasive. Lee never
    purported to limit its applicability to petitioners who have already
    received an evidentiary hearing. To the contrary, Lee set out a general
    instruction about the kind of evidence courts should consider when
    assessing prejudice in the plea-offer context, i.e., contemporaneous
    evidence. Thus, even though the amount of evidence Aguiar needs
    to secure an evidentiary hearing is less than Lee needed to prevail on
    the merits, Aguiar’s claim still fails because he has not presented any
    evidence of the kind that can show prejudice under Lee.
    5
    of the plea offer had been unwavering: “He rejected it then and
    he’s rejecting it now.” J.A. 176. After addressing counsel, the
    court turned to Aguiar and asked, “Is this the discussion, Mr.
    Aguiar, that you had with your attorney about the plea offer
    . . . ?” J.A. 177. Aguiar said yes. Id.
    In the absence of any contemporaneous evidence, Aguiar
    offers only a post hoc assertion that he would have accepted his
    plea offer. See Aguiar Br. 52. But that assertion is not enough
    under Lee. 3 The majority seems to shift the burden onto the
    government to show that Aguiar was “specifically advised”
    that his sentencing exposure could increase if he opted for trial.
    See Maj. Op. at 15. But that is not where the burden lies. To
    establish prejudice, Aguiar must show a “reasonable
    probability” that he would have accepted the plea offer, and he
    has not come close to satisfying that standard.
    Of course, it is always possible that a district court may
    find additional evidence on remand. But we review for abuse
    of discretion, not the mere possibility of finding additional
    evidence. I would affirm the district court’s decision to forgo
    an evidentiary hearing as a sound exercise of its discretion.
    I respectfully dissent.
    3
    Aguiar’s affidavit is unhelpful for yet another reason. It is a
    particularly poor indicator of whether Aguiar would have accepted
    the plea offer because it misstates his sentencing exposure under the
    offer. In his affidavit, Aguiar says he “would ha[ve] accepted the 30-
    year plea offer” if his lawyer had properly advised him. Maj. Op. at
    10. But Aguiar’s actual sentencing exposure was not 30 years; he
    was facing “a likely total sentence of between 47 and 51 years.” Id.
    at 2-3. Given this significant discrepancy, Aguiar’s affidavit is even
    less probative of whether he would have accepted the plea offer. In
    other words, not even in his post hoc assertion does Aguiar claim he
    would have accepted his true likely sentence instead of going to trial.