Xcel Energy Services Inc. v. FERC ( 2022 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued November 10, 2021              Decided July 19, 2022
    No. 20-1295
    XCEL ENERGY SERVICES INC.,
    PETITIONER
    v.
    FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION,
    RESPONDENT
    Consolidated with 20-1426
    On Petitions for Review of Orders
    of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
    Bryan Killian argued the cause for petitioner. With him
    on the briefs were Stephen M. Spina and Joseph Lowell.
    Lopa Parikh, Jeremy C. Marwell, Margaret E. Peloso, and
    Matthew X. Etchemendy were on the brief for amicus curiae
    Edison Electric Institute in support of petitioner.
    Jared Fish, Attorney, Federal Energy Regulatory
    Commission, argued the cause for respondent. With him on
    the brief were Matthew R. Christiansen, General Counsel, and
    2
    Robert H. Solomon, Solicitor. Susanna Y. Chu, Attorney,
    entered an appearance.
    Before:   HENDERSON, MILLETT, and WALKER, Circuit
    Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge MILLETT.
    MILLETT, Circuit Judge: Electricity grids are natural
    monopolies. To prevent utilities such as grid operators from
    abusing their market power, Congress has given the Federal
    Energy Regulatory Commission the responsibility to ensure
    that rates and rules under its jurisdiction are “just and
    reasonable[.]” 16 U.S.C. § 824d(a). The issue in this case is
    whether the Commission reasonably used that authority to
    reject a rule the agency found would risk favoring a vertically
    integrated operator’s own power plants over those of its rivals.
    The Public Service Corporation of Colorado is a grid
    owner and subsidiary of petitioner Xcel Energy Services, Inc.
    (collectively, “PS Colorado”). The utility is vertically
    integrated in that it both operates an electricity transmission
    network and owns power plants that generate about 60% of the
    power on its grid.
    In 2020, PS Colorado filed an application with the
    Commission to change how it processes power plant requests
    to interconnect—that is, to plug in—to its grid. Under
    Commission rules, grid operators generally must consider
    requests to connect on a first-come, first-served basis. PS
    Colorado proposed a fast-track process for generators looking
    to replace an existing power plant with a new one on the same
    site. (By generators, we mean both power plants and owners
    and developers of powers plants.) The company reasoned that
    this fast-track process would avoid wasteful grid-impact
    3
    studies and would allow new power plants to join the network
    more quickly. PS Colorado noted that the agency had granted
    virtually identical requests filed by other grid operators.
    The Commission denied PS Colorado’s request. It held
    that the proposal risked unduly preferring the company’s own
    power plants over would-be entrants to its grid. While the
    Commission had granted similar interconnection proposals in
    the past, all of those had been filed by independent grid
    operators, which are operators that do not also own generators
    on their networks. The agency was less concerned in those
    cases that the operator would have a reason to prefer some
    generators over others.
    We hold that the Commission reasonably explained its
    rejection of PS Colorado’s proposal. There was nothing
    arbitrary or capricious about its decision to bar a vertically
    integrated grid operator from adopting a rule that could favor
    its own generators and so cement its dominant market position.
    The Commission’s holding is consonant with decades of
    agency policy reflected in orders upheld by the Supreme Court
    and our court. The Commission also reasonably applied a
    different rule to a vertically integrated grid operator than it did
    to independent grid operators because vertically integrated
    operators have distinct competitive incentives.
    We therefore deny the petitions for review.
    I
    A
    The Federal Power Act gives the Commission the
    authority to regulate “both the transmission and the wholesale
    marketing of electricity in interstate commerce” to protect the
    public interest. Public Citizen, Inc. v. FERC, 
    7 F.4th 1177
    ,
    4
    1182–1183 (D.C. Cir. 2021). In that capacity, the Commission
    oversees prices for interstate electricity “and all rules and
    practices affecting such prices.” FERC v. Electric Power
    Supply Ass’n, 
    577 U.S. 260
    , 266 (2016).
    Section 205 of the Act mandates that electrical utilities’
    rates and rules within the Commission’s jurisdiction be “just
    and reasonable,” and it bars regulated utilities from “mak[ing]
    or grant[ing] any undue preference or advantage to any person
    or subject[ing] any person to any undue prejudice or
    disadvantage[.]” 16 U.S.C § 824d(a), (b). Such utilities must
    seek permission from the Commission to make any changes to
    their rates or rules. Id. § 824d(d). A utility seeking a rate or
    rule adjustment under Section 205 bears the burden of showing
    that its proposal is just and reasonable. Emera Maine v. FERC,
    
    854 F.3d 9
    , 24 (D.C. Cir. 2017).
    B
    1
    Throughout most of the 20th century, electricity in the
    United States was generated, transmitted, and distributed by
    vertically integrated monopolies.       See Midwest ISO
    Transmission Owners v. FERC, 
    373 F.3d 1361
    , 1363 (D.C. Cir.
    2004) (Roberts, J.). Prodded in part by parallel efforts in
    Congress, in the mid-1990s the Commission undertook efforts
    to boost competition in the market for wholesale electricity.
    See Transmission Access Policy Study Group v. FERC, 
    225 F.3d 667
    , 682 (D.C. Cir. 2000) (per curiam), aff’d sub nom.
    New York v. FERC, 
    535 U.S. 1
     (2002). As part of that process,
    the Commission determined that vertically integrated grid
    operators were unduly discriminating against independent
    generators. As owners of both transmission wires and power
    plants, these grid operators had the incentive and ability to
    favor their own generators over those of rivals either by
    5
    “refus[ing] to deliver energy produced by competitors or [by]
    deliver[ing] competitors’ power on terms and conditions less
    favorable than those they appl[lied] to their own
    transmissions.” New York, 
    535 U.S. at
    8–9.
    To redress that problem, the Commission’s Order No. 888
    required grid operators to provide unaffiliated power plants
    with equal access to their grids. See Promoting Wholesale
    Competition Through Open Access Non-Discriminatory
    Transmission Services by Public Utilities, 
    61 Fed. Reg. 21,540
    (May 10, 1996) (“Order No. 888”). By “remedy[ing] undue
    discrimination in access to the monopoly owned transmission
    wires[,]” id. at 21,541, the Commission sought to promote
    vigorous competition between generators.
    To ensure that generators received equal access to
    transmission grids, the agency required operators to offer
    standard terms and conditions for transmission service,
    outlined in a pro forma tariff designed by the Commission.
    Order No. 888, 61 Fed. Reg. at 21,618; Transmission Access
    Policy, 225 F.3d at 682. The Commission permitted grid
    operators to alter these standard terms only if they could show
    that “such deviations are ‘consistent with, or superior to’ the
    terms in the pro forma tariff.” Sacramento Mun. Util. Dist. v.
    FERC, 
    428 F.3d 294
    , 296 (D.C. Cir. 2005) (quoting Order No.
    888, 61 Fed. Reg. at 21,619). To further prevent market
    abuses, the Commission encouraged utilities to hand over
    control of their grids to independent system operators—that is,
    neutral third parties that would have no reason to favor one set
    of generators over another. Order No. 888, 61 Fed. Reg. at
    21,551.
    Soon after issuing Order No. 888, the Commission
    identified two additional roadblocks to open markets. First,
    utilities were not employing independent system operators in
    6
    sufficient numbers, leaving “lingering opportunities for
    transmission owners to discriminate in their own favor[.]”
    Midwest ISO, 
    373 F.3d at 1364
    . Second, before a generator
    could take advantage of the newly non-discriminatory
    transmission rates, it had to connect to the grid. The
    Commission was concerned that operators could use the
    complex process of interconnecting to the grid to “favor[]
    affiliated generators over independents[.]” National Ass’n of
    Regul. Util. Comm’rs v. FERC, 
    475 F.3d 1277
    , 1279 (D.C. Cir.
    2007).
    To address the first issue and “remove remaining
    opportunities for discriminatory transmission practices[,]” the
    Commission issued Order No. 2000, which offered more
    inducements to grid owners to hand over control of their
    networks to independent regional transmission organizations.
    Regional Transmission Organizations, 
    65 Fed. Reg. 810
    , 811
    (Jan. 6, 2000) (“Order No. 2000”); see also Public Util. Dist.
    No. 1 v. FERC, 
    272 F.3d 607
    , 611 (D.C. Cir. 2001) (per
    curiam). In this opinion, we will refer to independent regional
    transmission organizations and independent system operators
    collectively as “independent operators.”
    The Commission then turned to the problem of operators
    favoring their own generators when considering grid
    interconnection requests. See ESI Energy, LLC v. FERC, 
    892 F.3d 321
    , 324 (D.C. Cir. 2018). In 2003, the Commission
    issued an order directing operators to adopt a standard set of
    procedures for processing applications from generators to plug
    in to the grid.         See Standardization of Generator
    Interconnection Agreements & Procedures, 
    68 Fed. Reg. 49,846
    , 49,847 ¶ 2 (Aug. 19, 2003) (“Order No. 2003”); see
    also National Ass’n, 
    475 F.3d at 1279
     (upholding Order No.
    2003); Standardization of Small Generator Interconnection
    Agreements & Procedures, Order No. 2006, 
    70 Fed. Reg.
                             7
    34,190 (June 13, 2005). The Commission explained that it was
    issuing Order No. 2003 to:
    (1) [l]imit opportunities for Transmission Providers to
    favor their own generation, (2) facilitate market entry
    for     generation     competitors      by    reducing
    interconnection costs and time, and (3) encourage
    needed investment in generator and transmission
    infrastructure.
    Order No. 2003, 68 Fed. Reg. at 49,848 ¶ 12.
    Under the standard procedures the Commission outlined in
    its order, operators generally consider interconnection requests
    on a first-come, first-served basis. See Order No. 2003, 68 Fed.
    Reg. at 49,851 ¶ 35. Recognizing that vertically integrated
    operators are more likely to play favorites among
    interconnection applicants than are independent operators, the
    Commission provided that vertically integrated operators
    cannot deviate from the standard interconnection process
    unless they show that their proposed changes are “consistent
    with or superior to” the baseline rules. Id. at 49,850 ¶ 26.
    In contrast, the Commission considers independent
    operators’ proposed changes to the interconnection process
    under a more flexible approach called the “independent entity
    variation” standard, which allows independent operators more
    freedom “to customize [interconnection procedures] to meet
    their regional needs.” Order No. 2003, 68 Fed. Reg. at 49,850
    ¶ 26; see also id. at 49,860 ¶ 147. Under the independent entity
    variation standard, the Commission will approve variations
    from the pro forma interconnection rules if they are “just and
    reasonable and not unduly discriminatory[] and would
    accomplish the purposes of Order No. 2003.” Interconnection
    Queuing Practices, 
    122 FERC ¶ 61252
    , ¶ 13 n.10 (2008).
    8
    2
    Though the Commission believed that its standardized
    interconnection process would reduce operators’ opportunities
    to act anticompetitively, the agency recognized that it has
    downsides. Some grids have long queues for interconnection
    requests, leaving generators in the dark about when they can
    start selling power and how much it will cost to join the
    network. See Reform of Generator Interconnection Procedures
    & Agreements, Order No. 845, 
    83 Fed. Reg. 21,342
    , 21,345
    ¶¶ 23–25 (May 9, 2018); Interconnection Queuing Practices,
    
    122 FERC ¶ 61252
    , at ¶¶ 4, 15.
    The Commission has responded in several ways. Most
    relevantly here, in 2008 the agency encouraged independent
    operators to propose streamlined interconnection procedures.
    Interconnection Queuing Practices, 
    122 FERC ¶ 61252
    , at
    ¶ 18; see also Order No. 845, 
    83 Fed. Reg. 21,342
    . Operators
    answered the call, and several received Commission approval
    to speed their review of certain generator projects. See, e.g.,
    Midwest Indep. Transmission Sys. Operator, Inc., 
    124 FERC ¶ 61183
    , ¶¶ 41–42, 44 (2008). The Commission has also
    signed off on similar modifications for vertically integrated
    operators like PS Colorado as long as the changes have met the
    requirement that they be “consistent with or superior to” the
    Commission’s baseline pro forma rules. See Public Serv. Co.
    of Colorado, 
    169 FERC ¶ 61182
    , ¶ 30 (2019).
    Independent operators also have asked the Commission to
    allow a fast track for interconnection requests from
    replacement generators, which are new facilities built on the
    site of retired, previously interconnected plants. In 2019, the
    Midcontinent Independent System Operator (“MISO”), an
    independent operator running much of the grid in the corridor
    between Manitoba, Canada to the north and Louisiana in the
    9
    south, proposed this approach. See Midcontinent Indep. Sys.
    Operator, Inc., 
    167 FERC ¶ 61146
    , ¶ 8 (2019). MISO argued
    that its proposal would lighten the interconnection backlog and
    speed the construction of cheaper and more environmentally
    friendly power plants. Id. at ¶¶ 5, 19.
    The Commission granted MISO’s request. Midcontinent,
    
    167 FERC ¶ 61146
    , at ¶ 61. It found that fast tracking
    replacement generators would avoid unnecessary costs and
    duplicative grid-impact studies and would speed up entry of
    more efficient power plants. 
    Id.
     at ¶¶ 61–62. The agency held
    that MISO’s proposal was not unduly discriminatory because,
    “[i]n this circumstance,” owners of existing generators looking
    to rebuild on the same site “are not similarly situated to
    developers of new resources for the purpose of obtaining
    interconnection service in MISO.” Id. at ¶ 63. That was so,
    the Commission said, because unlike new plant developers,
    existing generator owners have already shown how their
    electrical generation will affect the grid and have already paid
    for any necessary upgrades. Id. at ¶¶ 64–65.
    C
    1
    PS Colorado is a utility that operates more than 4,700
    miles of transmission lines in Colorado and transmits
    electricity for about 75% of the state’s population. See TRI-
    STATE GENERATION & TRANSMISSION ASS’N, XCEL ENERGY, &
    BLACK HILLS ENERGY, 10-YEAR TRANSMISSION PLAN FOR THE
    STATE OF COLORADO 50–51 (2020). Besides running the grid,
    the company also owns the generators that produce about 60%
    of the electricity on its network. See Public Serv. Co. of
    Colorado, 
    171 FERC ¶ 61115
    , ¶ 36 (2020) (“May Order”)
    (J.A. 61).
    10
    In March 2020, PS Colorado filed a request with the
    Commission to, as relevant here, create a streamlined process
    for replacement generators that was modelled on MISO’s.
    Under PS Colorado’s proposal, a replacement generator would
    be eligible to avoid the interconnection queue if, among other
    things, it is built on the same location as the previous generator
    and, generally speaking, will burden the grid no more than its
    predecessor plant. See May Order ¶¶ 11–18 (J.A. 53–55); J.A.
    8–9, 22.
    PS Colorado argued that its plan is “consistent with or
    superior to” the pro forma interconnection rules. J.A. 11. It
    asserted that the benefits the Commission had recognized for
    MISO’s replacement generator program applied with full force
    to its plan: The new fast track would increase transparency in
    the replacement process, speed up the general interconnection
    queue, and avoid wastefully delaying replacement generators.
    PS Colorado asserted that the proposal would reduce
    opportunities for discrimination by stating clearly how it would
    consider replacement requests. The utility also insisted that, as
    the Commission had recently concluded, new and existing
    generators are not similarly situated, and so it was not unduly
    discriminatory for PS Colorado to treat them differently.
    2
    In May 2020, the Commission rejected PS Colorado’s
    proposal. May Order ¶ 1 (J.A. 49). The Commission
    concluded that the utility’s proposal was not “consistent with
    or superior to” the baseline rules in the pro forma tariff because
    it could allow a “more favorable interconnection process for
    [its] own generation and make it more difficult for its
    generation competitors to enter the market.” 
    Id.
     ¶¶ 34–35 (J.A.
    61). That, according to the Commission, could give PS
    Colorado’s own power plants an undue preference and frustrate
    11
    Order No. 2003’s goals of “limit[ing] opportunities for
    transmission providers to favor their own generat[ors] and
    * * * facilitat[ing] market entry for generation competitors[.]”
    Id. ¶ 35 (J.A. 61).
    The agency elaborated that PS Colorado owns power
    plants generating most of the energy on its grid, and the utility’s
    plan would help its own generators retain their valuable
    transmission capacity and ward off potential competitors. May
    Order ¶¶ 36–37 (J.A. 61). The Commission noted that, under
    its standard interconnection rules, when an existing generator
    retires, the bandwidth on the grid it had occupied can be made
    available for a new generator. But under PS Colorado’s plan,
    the retiree’s transmission capacity would instead likely be
    locked up by incumbent generator owners, the largest of which
    is PS Colorado itself. See id.
    The Commission explained that its grant of MISO’s
    analogous proposal did not require granting PS Colorado’s
    because MISO is an independent operator that “does not own
    generating facilities[,]” and so, unlike PS Colorado, MISO
    does not “have an incentive to obstruct independent generation
    from accessing the grid.” May Order ¶ 38 (J.A. 62). For that
    same reason, approval of MISO’s proposal was provided under
    the less onerous “independent entity variation” standard, while
    PS Colorado had to show that its new rule would advance the
    Commission’s goals of preventing discrimination, promoting
    market entry, and encouraging grid investment at least as well
    as the pro forma tariff. Id. ¶¶ 35, 38 (J.A. 61–62).
    3
    PS Colorado requested rehearing. It first argued that the
    Federal Power Act precludes the Commission from granting an
    independent operator’s tariff amendment while denying an
    identical proposal from a vertically integrated operator just
    12
    because of its integrated status. Second, PS Colorado noted
    that the Commission had not referred to the “independent entity
    variation” standard in its decision to approve MISO’s
    replacement generator plan, and so it was arbitrary for the
    agency to rely on that standard in distinguishing the two cases.
    See J.A. 68. Third, PS Colorado asserted that its proposal
    would not allow it to unduly discriminate against independent
    generators. Fourth, PS Colorado argued that the agency
    arbitrarily departed from its finding in the MISO order that new
    and existing generators are not similarly situated. The
    company contended that new and replacement generators were
    just as differently situated on its grid as on MISO’s, and so it
    was unfair for the Commission to treat its proposal differently.
    Finally, PS Colorado argued that the Commission erred by
    ignoring the evidence favoring its proposal, including benefits
    the agency had recognized in its Midcontinent decision.
    Two months after PS Colorado’s rehearing petition was
    denied by operation of law, the Commission addressed PS
    Colorado’s arguments and reaffirmed its May Order. See
    Public Serv. Co. of Colorado, 
    172 FERC ¶ 61297
    , ¶ 2 (2020)
    (“Rehearing Order”) (J.A. 98).
    In its rehearing decision, the Commission rejected PS
    Colorado’s argument that the independent entity variation
    standard was unduly discriminatory. Rehearing Order ¶ 6
    (J.A. 101). The agency said that the greater flexibility afforded
    independent operators is rooted in a “recognition of their
    operating characteristics”—that is, their lack of self-interest in
    favoring some generators over others. 
    Id.
     That difference also
    explained why all the grid operators the Commission had
    previously approved to run a streamlined generator
    replacement process had been independent operators. Id. ¶ 7
    (J.A. 101–102).
    13
    The Commission then turned to PS Colorado’s argument
    that its proposal was just and reasonable. The agency stood by
    its holding in Midcontinent that new and existing generators are
    differently situated. Rehearing Order ¶ 13 (J.A. 105). The
    Commission explained that it had rejected PS Colorado’s plan
    because, though it “may feature safeguards against patent
    undue discrimination,” the proposal would structurally “enable
    existing generation (of which the majority is owned by [PS
    Colorado]) to be replaced via an expedited interconnection
    process[,]” while requiring new generation “to undergo the full
    interconnection process[.]” Id. The plan would thus
    “inherently favor [PS Colorado’s] existing generating
    resources.” Id. So the Commission’s decision “ensure[d] that
    [PS Colorado], as the entity proposing reforms that stand to
    disproportionately benefit replacement of its own generation,
    is not afforded undue preference over” other generator owners
    and developers. Id. (J.A. 106).
    The Commission closed by explaining that “the potential
    for undue discrimination in favor of [PS Colorado’s]
    generation is considerable, and [any] benefits are not sufficient
    to render [the] proposal ‘consistent with or superior to’ the pro
    forma” interconnection process. Rehearing Order ¶ 14 (J.A.
    106).
    PS Colorado timely petitioned this court for review of both
    the May Order and the Rehearing Order.
    D
    Shortly after rejecting PS Colorado’s proposal, the
    Commission accepted a similar plan from the vertically
    integrated utility Dominion Energy South Carolina, Inc.
    Dominion Energy S.C., Inc., 
    173 FERC ¶ 61171
    , ¶ 24 (2020).
    Unlike PS Colorado, Dominion had proposed that the
    streamlined replacement generator program be administered by
    14
    a neutral third party rather than by the operator itself. 
    Id.
     The
    Commission found that the third-party administrator would
    “protect[] against discriminatory implementation” of the new
    process, and so concluded that the program’s benefits
    outweighed its costs. Id. at ¶ 26.
    Then-Chairman (now Commissioner) Danly concurred.
    He wrote separately to say that he now believed the agency’s
    rejection of PS Colorado’s proposal had been a mistake.
    Dominion Energy, 
    173 FERC ¶ 61171
    , at ¶ 3 (Danly,
    Chairman, concurring). He argued that the Commission had
    rejected PS Colorado’s proposal because it unduly
    discriminated against new generators; by that logic, it should
    also have rejected Dominion’s proposal, especially because
    Dominion owned an even larger share of the electrical capacity
    on its grid. Id. at ¶ 4. A neutral administrator would not
    obviate that concern, he said, and he observed that the
    Commission “did not even hint in [its PS Colorado decisions]
    that [it] [was] concerned about the potential for discriminatory
    implementation of the generation replacement program.” Id. at
    ¶ 5.
    In 2021, while this case was pending here, PS Colorado
    filed a request with the Commission to adopt a streamlined
    replacement generator program administered by an
    independent entity. Public Serv. Co. of Colorado, 
    175 FERC ¶ 61100
    , ¶ 1 (2021). The agency approved that proposal for the
    same reasons it gave in Dominion Energy. 
    Id.
     at ¶¶ 16–17.
    II
    We have jurisdiction under 16 U.S.C § 825l(b). We
    review Commission orders under the arbitrary and capricious
    standard. ESI Energy, 892 F.3d at 329. We will “uphold the
    Commission’s factual findings if they are supported by
    substantial evidence.” Id. The scope of our review is
    15
    “narrow[,]” and we defer to the Commission’s technical
    decisionmaking within its expertise. Electric Power Supply,
    577 U.S. at 292 (citation omitted).
    III
    PS Colorado mounts three challenges to the orders below.
    First, it argues that the Commission irrationally concluded that
    its plan favoring replacement generators over new generators
    is unduly discriminatory, even though the agency had
    separately determined that replacement generators are
    differently situated from new generation for purposes of
    expedited interconnection. Second, it contends that the
    Commission’s finding of potential discrimination against new
    generators was not supported by substantial evidence. Finally,
    PS Colorado asserts that the Commission’s orders contradict
    its decision approving a nearly identical plan in Midcontinent.
    None of those arguments succeeds.
    A
    PS Colorado argues that the Commission’s decision is
    built on an untenable contradiction. On the one hand, the
    Commission affirmed its holding in Midcontinent that new and
    replacement generators are not similarly situated. On the other
    hand, the Commission held that the utility’s proposal was
    unduly discriminatory because it favored replacement
    generators over new generators. That is irrational, in PS
    Colorado’s view, because it is not unduly discriminatory to
    treat differently situated entities differently.
    PS Colorado’s criticism is not unfair. The Commission
    certainly could have explained itself more clearly. But reading
    both the May Order and the Rehearing Order together, the
    agency’s rationale and its reasonableness can be perceived
    16
    readily enough. We will “uphold a decision of less than ideal
    clarity if the agency’s path may reasonably be discerned.”
    Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n of U.S., Inc. v. State Farm Mut.
    Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983) (citations omitted).
    1
    The Commission has broad discretion in assessing tariff
    proposals under Section 205 of the Federal Power Act. The
    phrase “‘just and reasonable’ is obviously incapable of precise
    judicial definition[.]” Delaware Div. of Pub. Advoc. v. FERC,
    
    3 F.4th 461
    , 465 (D.C. Cir. 2021) (quoting Morgan Stanley
    Cap. Grp. Inc. v. Public Util. Dist. No. 1, 
    554 U.S. 527
    , 532
    (2008)). The Commission likewise has “wide discretion to
    determine what constitutes undue discrimination.” Missouri
    River Energy Servs. v. FERC, 
    918 F.3d 954
    , 958 (D.C. Cir.
    2019) (formatting modified and citation omitted).
    The Commission has used its discretion and expertise to
    craft the “consistent with or superior to” test for deviations
    from its pro forma rules. See Order No. 2003, 68 Fed. Reg. at
    49,919 ¶ 826. Under this standard, it considers whether an
    operator’s proposed tariff is “consistent with the broad non-
    discrimination goals” of the Commission’s orders.
    Sacramento Mun., 
    428 F.3d at 297
    . The Commission has
    explained that the test is “difficult to meet,” and an applicant’s
    burden under the standard is “significant.” Order No. 2006, 70
    Fed. Reg. at 34,236 ¶ 547; see also id. at ¶ 546 (explaining that
    the agency adopted the same standard as in Order No. 2003).1
    1
    In Order No. 2003 the Commission adopted the “consistent
    with or superior to” test as applied to decisions under Order No. 888,
    which is the Commission’s directive that grid operators serve
    generators on equal terms. See Order No. 2003, 68 Fed. Reg. at
    49,919 ¶ 826.
    17
    The Commission has repeatedly applied that test to reject
    changes to vertically integrated utilities’ interconnection
    procedures that the Commission believes would structurally
    favor the operator’s own generation and could disadvantage
    new generators. For example, the agency has rejected rules that
    would have required new generators to pay for too many
    studies, see Nevada Power Co., 
    167 FERC ¶ 61086
    , ¶¶ 20, 28
    (2019), or that would have failed to give new generators
    “sufficient flexibility to accommodate delays that may affect
    their projects,” Public Serv. Co. of Colorado, 
    163 FERC ¶ 61146
    , ¶ 31 & n.49, ¶¶ 32–33 (2018); see also, e.g., Public
    Serv. Co. of Colorado, 
    166 FERC ¶ 61076
    , ¶ 31 (2019);
    Southern California Edison Co., 
    110 FERC ¶ 61176
    , ¶ 52
    (2005).
    2
    Here, the Commission reasonably applied the “consistent
    with or superior to” standard to conclude that PS Colorado’s
    proposal would undermine two of Order No. 2003’s central
    anti-discrimination goals: limiting self-dealing and promoting
    competition from new power plants. See May Order ¶¶ 35–37
    (J.A. 61); Rehearing Order ¶¶ 13–14 (J.A. 105–106).
    The Commission explained that PS Colorado’s proposal
    “may result in a more favorable interconnection process for
    [its] own generation and make it more difficult for [new]
    generation competitors to enter the market.” May Order ¶ 35
    (J.A. 61). By “allowing its [own] replacement generation to
    circumvent the full interconnection process,” the utility could
    give itself “an undue preference”—the ability to skip the
    interconnection queue—while leaving its would-be
    competitors in the slow lane. Id. ¶ 36. A central goal of Order
    No. 2003 is to “facilitate market entry for generation
    competitors[.]” Id. ¶ 35. Yet under PS Colorado’s proposal,
    18
    new power plants would lose the access they might otherwise
    have had to the “interconnection capacity” that arises when an
    existing generator retires, while PS Colorado’s own generators
    stood to gain. Id. ¶ 37. PS Colorado’s plan would therefore
    “inherently favor [its] existing generating resources[,]”
    cementing its dominant market position and potentially
    “afford[ing its own generators] undue preference over
    developers or owners of third-party generation.” Rehearing
    Order ¶ 13 (J.A. 105–106). That, the Commission concluded,
    was not “consistent with or superior to” the agency’s standard
    rules requiring equal treatment of all generators in the
    interconnection queue. Id. ¶ 14 (J.A. 106).
    Decades of precedent support the Commission’s decision
    to prevent undue discrimination and promote competition.
    After all, the Commission’s “authority generally rests on the
    public interest in constraining exercises of market power[.]”
    National Ass’n, 
    475 F.3d at 1280
    . The Commission, in fact,
    has a “responsibility to consider, in appropriate circumstances,
    the anticompetitive effects of regulated aspects of interstate
    utility operations” in exercising its authority under the Federal
    Power Act. Gulf States Utils. Co. v. FPC, 
    411 U.S. 747
    , 758–
    759 (1973); cf. Morgan Stanley, 
    554 U.S. at 531
     (“The Federal
    Power Act * * * gives the Commission the authority to regulate
    the sale of electricity in interstate commerce—a market
    historically characterized by natural monopoly and therefore
    subject to abuses of market power.”) (footnote and citations
    omitted).
    The Commission’s rejection here of a tariff amendment
    that would make it harder for the competitors of a vertically
    integrated transmission operator to enter the market, while
    helping to lock in the operator’s own market position, certainly
    helps to accomplish that mission.
    19
    3
    PS Colorado points to the Commission’s statement that
    new and replacement generators are “not similarly situated[,]”
    Rehearing Order ¶ 13 (J.A. 105), and to this court’s caselaw
    holding that we will not find undue discrimination unless
    “similarly situated” entities are treated differently.
    Transmission Agency of N. Cal. v. FERC, 
    628 F.3d 538
    , 549
    (D.C. Cir. 2010). In PS Colorado’s view, the Commission
    contradicted itself here by finding that the proposal’s
    preferential treatment of existing generators could unduly
    discriminate against new generators.
    Things are not so simple as PS Colorado supposes.
    First, the Commission grounded its conclusion that PS
    Colorado had not borne its burden under Section 205 not only
    on a prediction of actual undue discrimination, but also on a
    finding that the plan would be contrary to the prophylactic
    goals of Order No. 2003. See May Order ¶ 35 (J.A. 61)
    (rejecting PS Colorado’s proposal because it is “[c]ontrary to
    [the] principles” of Order No. 2003 and may “make it more
    difficult for [PS Colorado’s] generation competitors to enter
    the market”).
    One of the Commission’s chief goals in promulgating
    standard interconnection rules was to “minimize opportunities
    for undue discrimination” by transmission operators, and it
    does that in part by protecting “relatively unencumbered entry
    into the market[.]” Order No. 2003, 68 Fed. Reg. at 49,848
    ¶¶ 11–12. The Commission’s acknowledgment that new and
    existing generators are differently situated did not strip it of the
    authority to continue “facilitat[ing] market entry for generation
    competitors[,]” especially those owned by rivals to integrated
    operators. May Order ¶ 35 (J.A. 61); see also id. ¶ 38 (J.A. 61–
    62). And the Commission can promote market entry by
    20
    ensuring that “all generat[ors] * * * compete on a level playing
    field” in “accessing released interconnection capacity[.]” Id.
    ¶ 37 (J.A. 61).
    For similar reasons, PS Colorado is mistaken when it says
    that the Commission rejected its proposal solely because it
    would help the utility’s own power plants. The Commission’s
    conclusion was not based merely on the fact that PS Colorado’s
    plants could benefit from the rule, but also the risk that the
    proposal would structurally disfavor new competition against a
    vertical operator. See May Order ¶ 35 (J.A. 61); Rehearing
    Order ¶ 13 (J.A. 105–106).
    Second, while the Commission agreed that new and
    existing generators can be differently situated, it also
    recognized that, when an integrated operator owns most of the
    generation on its grid, a rule favoring existing generators
    necessarily favors the operator’s own power plants. See
    Rehearing Order ¶ 13 (J.A. 105–106). That is, the efficiency
    that a rule favoring existing generators generally promotes can
    end up undermining competition when adopted by a vertically
    integrated operator. Said another way, while PS Colorado’s
    plan looks like a non-discriminatory proposal on the surface, in
    practice its design “inherently favor[s]” PS Colorado’s existing
    generators “over developers or owners of third-party
    generation.” Id. So in rejecting PS Colorado’s proposal, the
    Commission reasonably exercised its discretion to determine
    what constitutes “undue discrimination.” Missouri River
    Energy, 918 F.3d at 958.
    To hold otherwise would mean that the Commission’s
    finding that new and replacement generators are differently
    situated as a general matter somehow silently overruled Order
    No. 2003’s determination that integrated operators give
    themselves “an unfair advantage” when they delay plugging in
    21
    new independent power plants. Order No. 2003, 68 Fed. Reg.
    at 49,848 ¶ 11. That makes no sense, especially in a case where
    the Commission was explicitly enforcing Order No. 2003.
    PS Colorado asserts that there is nothing unduly
    discriminatory about a plan that allows existing generators to
    benefit on the same terms as any other generator already on the
    grid. It compares the situation to “an office-wide ice-cream
    social” in which “the boss who pays for the event[] takes a
    scoop.” PS Colorado Reply Br. 14. That, PS Colorado says,
    can hardly be called “favor[ing]” the boss. PS Colorado Reply
    Br. 14.
    But the metaphor obscures more than it illuminates. For
    one thing, it fails to account for all of those never invited to the
    social in the first place—those trying to enter the grid. PS
    Colorado’s vision also fails to mention that the “boss” in this
    story would not take just a single scoop: PS Colorado would
    be in line for six scoops out of every ten, each one of which
    might otherwise go to a would-be employee seeking to get in
    the door.
    In short, the Commission rejected PS Colorado’s proposal
    because it found the plan could favor or at least entrench
    generators owned by a vertically integrated operator and limit
    opportunities for other power plants to compete, undermining
    the goals of Order No. 2003. See May Order ¶¶ 34–38 (J.A.
    60–62); Rehearing Order ¶ 13 (J.A. 105–106). That is a
    “rational connection between the facts found and the choice
    made[,]” which suffices under arbitrary and capricious review.
    City & County of San Francisco v. FERC, 
    24 F.4th 652
    , 658
    22
    (D.C. Cir. 2022) (quoting Electric Power Supply, 577 U.S. at
    292).2
    B
    The Commission’s decision was supported by substantial
    evidence.     Substantial evidence, though less than a
    preponderance, is “such relevant evidence as a reasonable mind
    might accept as adequate to support a conclusion.” Louisiana
    Pub. Serv. Comm’n v. FERC, 
    20 F.4th 1
    , 7 (D.C. Cir. 2021)
    (quoting Consolidated Edison Co. v. NLRB, 
    305 U.S. 197
    , 217
    (1938)). In making decisions, it is “perfectly legitimate for the
    Commission to base its findings * * * on basic economic
    theory,” including relying on “generic factual predictions[,]” as
    long as the agency “explain[s] and applie[s] the relevant
    economic principles in a reasonable manner.” Sacramento
    Mun. Util. Dist. v. FERC, 
    616 F.3d 520
    , 531 (D.C. Cir. 2010)
    (per curiam) (citation omitted).
    2
    PS Colorado argues that later Commission orders approving
    replacement generator interconnection proposals seem less
    concerned about obstructing new power plants from entering the
    grid. See Dominion Energy, 
    173 FERC ¶ 61171
    , at ¶ 24 (accepting
    vertically integrated operator’s replacement generator fast-track
    plan); 
    id.
     at ¶¶ 3–5 (Danly, Chairman, concurring); Public Serv. Co.
    of Colorado, 
    175 FERC ¶ 61100
    , at ¶ 15. We need not address those
    decisions or determine if they concerned proposals that are, in fact,
    materially similar to PS Colorado’s proposal here, because they
    postdate the Commission’s decision at issue. “An agency’s decision
    is not arbitrary and capricious merely because it is not followed in a
    later adjudication.” Brooklyn Union Gas Co. v. FERC, 
    409 F.3d 404
    ,
    406 (D.C. Cir. 2005) (citation omitted). PS Colorado could perhaps
    pursue this argument in a future filing under Section 205 of the
    Federal Power Act. See 16 U.S.C. § 824d. But the Commission’s
    subsequent orders cannot affect our decision today.
    23
    The Commission’s finding that PS Colorado’s proposal
    would contravene Order No. 2003 by favoring its own power
    plants and making it more difficult for rival generators to enter
    the market was well supported. PS Colorado’s 60% market
    share is uncontested, see May Order ¶ 36 & n.55 (J.A. 61), and
    its incentive to favor its own generators is a canonical
    economic principle, see id. ¶ 38 (J.A. 61–62); see also, e.g.,
    Transmission Access Policy, 225 F.3d at 684. Plus, PS
    Colorado itself supported the Commission’s technical finding
    that the company’s fast-track program would make it harder for
    new competitors to enter the grid. See J.A. 12, 91. So it can
    hardly contest that finding now.
    PS Colorado argues that the Commission lacked “actual
    evidence of undue discrimination or an economic theory
    reasonably suggesting a likelihood of undue discrimination.”
    PS Colorado Opening Br. 39. That is doubly wrong.
    First, the undisputed purpose and predicted effect of PS
    Colorado’s proposal was to allow replacement generators to
    keep for themselves bandwidth on the grid that might otherwise
    have gone to new competitors. PS Colorado told the
    Commission as much, explaining that under its plan,
    replacement power plants meeting certain conditions—
    including PS Colorado’s own plants—could “retain [their
    predecessor’s] contractual interconnection service rights[.]”
    J.A. 12.
    That stands in sharp contrast to the Commission’s pro
    forma rule that when existing plants go out of service, “those
    facilities may * * * be replaced with new facilities at different
    locations on the transmission system.” J.A. 12; see also J.A.
    91 (PS Colorado rehearing request). In this way, the standard
    interconnection rules limit the ability of existing generators’
    owners to hold on indefinitely to transmission capacity. When
    24
    plants retire, the grid bandwidth they rely on can be made
    available to whichever parties are next eligible in the queue.
    PS Colorado asserted that its plan would allow
    replacement generators to efficiently reuse existing
    interconnection facilities. Maybe. But that does not change
    the fact that, under PS Colorado’s plan, new power plants may
    lose access to relatively inexpensive electrical capacity
    retained by incumbents. PS Colorado points out that, even
    under the pro forma rules, some new generators may be owned
    by the same party as their predecessors, leaving the competitive
    landscape unchanged. PS Colorado Reply Br. 17–18. But it
    was enough for the Commission to find that, under the pro
    forma tariff, some new plants owned by others might replace
    PS Colorado’s existing generators, adding more competition to
    the grid. See May Order ¶¶ 35–37 (J.A. 61).
    In short, the Commission made the kind of “reasonable
    prediction” about “the market it regulates” to which we
    ordinarily defer. South Carolina Pub. Serv. Auth. v. FERC, 
    762 F.3d 41
    , 96 (D.C. Cir. 2014) (per curiam) (citation omitted).
    Second, the Commission’s determination that PS
    Colorado has “reason to favor [its] own generation over others”
    was a sensible application of basic economic theory long
    recognized by courts. Rehearing Order ¶ 6 (J.A. 101). As we
    have said, generator-owning “[u]tilities that * * * control
    transmission facilities naturally wish to maximize profit” and
    so “can be expected to act in their own interest to maintain their
    monopoly[.]” Transmission Access Policy, 225 F.3d at 684;
    see also Morgan Stanley, 
    554 U.S. at 536
    .
    The utility argues that, under our decision in Ameren
    Services Co. v. FERC, the Commission must assume that its
    earlier orders prevent most, “if not all[,]” discrimination by
    integrated operators because “the ‘bad old days’” of vertically
    25
    integrated transmission operators are behind us. PS Colorado
    Opening Br. 32–33 (quoting Ameren, 
    880 F.3d 571
    , 578 (D.C.
    Cir. 2018)). Ameren said no such thing. That case held only
    that where just one of many “petitioning transmission owners
    * * * still own[ed] a generator[,]” the Commission could not
    apply a rule premised on grid operators generally having an
    incentive to discriminate against new power plants. Ameren,
    880 F.3d at 578. In so holding, we were quick to emphasize
    that when grid operators “still own[] integrated generation”—
    as PS Colorado does—that “present[s] a competitive motive”
    to discriminate against independent power plants. Id. So much
    so that the Commission “is not obliged to show actual evidence
    to support a determination of potential discrimination” and can
    instead “rest on economic theory and logic.” Id. (emphasis
    omitted). Which is what the Commission did here.
    PS Colorado contends that the Commission’s finding that
    the replacement generator proposal would harm new entrants
    conflicts with the agency’s conclusion that the plan would de-
    clutter the interconnection queue. There is no contradiction.
    The Commission simply weighed the pros and cons of PS
    Colorado’s plan and found that it came up wanting: “[T]he
    potential for undue discrimination in favor of [PS Colorado’s]
    generation is considerable,” and not outweighed by “the
    potential benefits” of the proposal. Rehearing Order ¶ 14 (J.A.
    106). Such a reasonable balancing of divergent considerations
    on a matter within the Commission’s expertise merits
    deference. See New England Power Generators Ass’n, Inc. v.
    FERC, 
    881 F.3d 202
    , 210 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (“Due to practical
    challenges and myriad divergent interests, FERC must be given
    the latitude to balance the competing considerations and decide
    on the best resolution in its regulation of electricity markets.”)
    (internal quotation marks and citation omitted).
    26
    Finally, we lack jurisdiction to consider PS Colorado’s
    other arguments that the Commission’s competition analysis
    was factually wanting or in conflict with Midcontinent. See PS
    Colorado Opening Br. 36; PS Colorado Reply Br. 18–19. The
    company did not urge any of those claims with specificity in its
    request for rehearing to the Commission, and it has not given a
    “reasonable ground for failure to do so.” 16 U.S.C. § 825l(b).
    C
    The Commission’s orders comported with agency
    precedent. The Commission has allowed several independent
    operators to adopt a streamlined generator replacement
    program, most notably MISO. See Midcontinent, 
    167 FERC ¶ 61146
    , at ¶¶ 19, 61. So if PS Colorado and those independent
    operators were similarly situated, the agency would have some
    explaining to do. But vertically integrated and independent
    grid operators are not similarly situated for competition
    purposes. See Sections III.A–B, supra. The Commission thus
    permissibly treated PS Colorado differently than MISO and
    other independent operators.
    That distinction also explains why the agency rejected PS
    Colorado’s argument that since grid owners own most of the
    power capacity on MISO’s grid, MISO is not so different after
    all. That mixes apples and oranges. The Commission’s
    competition concerns are centered on the entity operating the
    grid and administering the plan, not on who owns the grid. See
    Order No. 2000, 65 Fed. Reg. at 811, 852; May Order ¶ 38 &
    n.57 (J.A. 61–62). The Midcontinent Independent System
    Operator, as its name suggests, runs the MISO electricity grid
    but owns no power plants. PS Colorado runs its grid, would
    administer the proposed plan, and owns existing power plants
    generating about 60% of the electricity on the grid. So the
    vertically integrated market structure that concerned the
    27
    Commission in this case simply does not exist in MISO. See
    Rehearing Order ¶ 13 (J.A. 105–106).3
    PS Colorado offers two more arguments that the
    Commission departed from its precedent in the challenged
    orders. Neither succeeds.
    First, PS Colorado argues that the Commission’s failure in
    its Midcontinent decision to mention the “independent entity
    variation” standard—its less challenging standard for
    independent operators seeking tariff changes—must mean that
    the Commission was not applying that test. Not at all. The
    Commission’s recognition that independent operators do not
    raise the same anti-competitive concerns as vertically
    integrated operators long predates Midcontinent.            See
    generally, e.g., Order No. 2000, 65 Fed. Reg. at 811. The
    agency has therefore consistently approached tariff
    modification requests from independent operators differently
    than those from vertically integrated entities. See Order No.
    2003, 68 Fed. Reg. at 49,850 ¶ 26, 49,860 ¶ 147; May Order
    ¶ 38 n.57 (J.A. 62); Rehearing Order ¶ 6 & n.21, ¶ 11 & n.38
    (J.A. 101, 104). Nothing in Midcontinent turned its back on
    that precedent. Cf. Southwest Airlines Co. v. FERC, 
    926 F.3d 851
    , 858 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (“[T]he Commission’s consistent
    practice, whether adopted expressly in a holding or established
    impliedly through repetition, sets the baseline from which
    future departures must be explained.”). Anyhow, because PS
    Colorado and MISO are differently situated for purposes of
    3
    This is not to say that independent operators are necessarily
    incapable of unduly discriminating, including by favoring power
    plants owned by grid owners within their network. But no such case
    was before the Commission or is before us.
    28
    competition analyses, the Commission bears no burden to
    explain why it treated them differently.4
    Second, PS Colorado’s argument that in Midcontinent the
    Commission approved streamlined replacement generator
    programs as a free-floating “practice[,]” and so categorically
    gave them the Commission’s just-and-reasonable stamp of
    approval, is flatly wrong. PS Colorado Opening Br. 49.
    Nowhere in Midcontinent did the Commission suggest that it
    was adopting such a sweeping rule. After all, a rule may be
    just and reasonable in one context and unjust and unreasonable
    in another. See, e.g., Emera Maine, 854 F.3d at 23 (“Whether
    a rate * * * is unlawful depends on the particular circumstances
    of the case.”). The Commission adequately explained its
    conclusion that a fast-track program for replacement generators
    would be impermissible here, even if it is just and reasonable
    in other circumstances.
    IV
    For all those reasons, we deny PS Colorado’s petitions for
    review.
    So ordered.
    4
    PS Colorado also contends that application of the
    “independent entity variation” standard in Midcontinent cannot
    distinguish that decision because that standard only gives
    independent operators flexibility to address regionally specific
    needs, not nationwide concerns like interconnection backlogs. PS
    Colorado raised that argument for the first time in its reply brief and
    so it is forfeited. See Reporters Comm. for Freedom of the Press v.
    FBI, 
    3 F.4th 350
    , 364 (D.C. Cir. 2021).