Lisa Guffey v. Roslynn Mauskopf ( 2022 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued September 20, 2021            Decided August 16, 2022
    No. 20-5183
    LISA GUFFEY AND CHRISTINE SMITH,
    APPELLEES
    v.
    ROSLYNN R. MAUSKOPF, IN HER OFFICIAL CAPACITY AS
    DIRECTOR OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE OF THE UNITED
    STATES COURTS,
    APPELLANT
    Consolidated with 20-5208
    Appeals from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:18-cv-01271)
    Weili J. Shaw, Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice,
    argued the cause for appellant/cross-appellee. With him on the
    briefs were Brian M. Boynton, Acting Assistant Attorney
    General, and Scott R. Mcintosh, Attorney.
    Scott Michelman argued the cause for appellees/cross-
    appellants. With him on the briefs was Arthur B. Spitzer.
    2
    Before: HENDERSON and WALKER, Circuit Judges, and
    EDWARDS, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge WALKER.
    Dissenting opinion by Circuit Judge HENDERSON.
    WALKER, Circuit Judge: Lisa Guffey and Christine Smith
    work at the Administrative Office of the United States Courts.
    When they are away from work, they want to express support
    for their preferred candidates in partisan elections.
    AO employees could do that for the first 79 years of the
    agency’s history. But since 2018, the AO has forbidden it.
    That prohibition violates the Free Speech Clause of the
    First Amendment.
    I
    We begin with some background on the Administrative
    Office, the work that Guffey and Smith do there, the AO’s
    speech restriction, and the district court proceedings.
    A
    Congress created the AO in 1939. Pub. L. No. 76-299, 
    53 Stat. 1223
     (Aug. 7, 1939). It is now an 1,100-employee agency
    within the Judicial Branch that provides a variety of valuable
    support services. For example, its employees:
    •   Assist judges and courthouse staff with information
    technology;
    3
    •   Help courts connect with visiting judges and coordinate
    travel;
    •   Handle human resources and other support tasks for
    courts, probation offices, and federal-defender services;
    •   Recommend positions to the Judiciary’s internal
    policymaking body, the Judicial Conference, on issues
    like codes of conduct, court administration, and
    defender services;
    •   Issue press releases and statements on behalf of the
    Judiciary;
    •   Advise judges on reimbursements, recusals, gifts, and
    other ethics issues; and
    •   Represent the Judicial Conference before Congress and
    the Executive Branch.
    That far-from-exhaustive list shows the array of important
    tasks that AO employees handle. But note what is not on that
    list. AO employees do not decide cases — only judges do that.
    Nor do they make recommendations about the outcomes of
    individual cases, as law clerks and other legal advisors inside a
    courthouse often do.
    B
    When this case began, Guffey and Smith worked with the
    AO’s Defender Services Office. Guffey still does, but Smith
    has since moved to the AO’s Department of Technology
    Services.
    Guffey makes sure that individual federal-defender offices
    and court-panel attorney programs are adequately resourced,
    operating effectively, and following administrative policies.
    That work includes occasional meetings with judges to report
    4
    on federal-defender offices and assess court-panel programs.
    In a decade at the AO she has performed work related to an
    individual case exactly once, when she researched the
    appropriate level of funding for expert witnesses without
    making a recommendation.
    Until somewhat recently, Smith was the IT Liaison for the
    Defender Services Office. She ensured that federal defenders’
    IT needs were met and that they had secure systems. She
    occasionally met with judges to advance those goals. In her
    new role, Smith leads cyber-security assessments.
    C
    For the first 79 years of the AO’s history, its employees
    have been free to engage in certain partisan political expression
    outside the office. Both Guffey and Smith have engaged in
    partisan political activities away from the job while employed
    at the AO. There is nothing in the record to indicate that any
    such political activity by Guffey, Smith, or any other AO
    employee has had any adverse impact on the operations or
    reputation of the AO or the judicial branch. But despite that
    history, the AO revised its code of conduct in 2018 to prohibit
    partisan political expression by its employees, whether done on
    the clock or on their own time.
    As is relevant here, the AO’s code of conduct now
    prohibits:
    1. Publicly expressing opinions about partisan candidates
    or political parties, including on social media;
    2. Wearing or displaying partisan badges, signs, or
    buttons;
    5
    3. Contributing money to a party, candidate, or political
    action committee;
    4. Attending partisan fundraisers;
    5. Attending a partisan candidate’s campaign events;
    6. Attending party conventions, rallies, and meetings;
    7. Being a member of a partisan political organization;
    8. Driving voters to the polls on behalf of a party or
    candidate; and
    9. Organizing events for a partisan candidate.
    Those restrictions apply to partisan politics at all levels of
    government, from a presidential election to a race for the
    county register of deeds.1
    D
    Guffey and Smith sued the AO, seeking an injunction.
    They want to be able to continue engaging in certain partisan
    political expression outside the office — when they are in no
    way affiliating themselves with the AO. While the suit
    proceeded, they also moved for a preliminary injunction.
    Guffey v. Duff, 
    330 F. Supp. 3d 66
    , 68 (D.D.C. 2018).
    The district court granted a preliminary injunction as to the
    first seven restrictions listed above (all but the restrictions on
    driving voters to the polls and organizing events). Id. at 81.
    Then, at the summary-judgment stage, the district court granted
    1
    See Emily Patrick, All About the Register of Deeds Race in the
    Upcoming Election, Citizen Times (Oct. 11, 2016),
    https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2016/10/11/all-
    register-deeds-race-upcoming-election/91898522/ (describing the
    heated, partisan register of deeds race in a North Carolina county).
    6
    Guffey and Smith partial summary judgment and permanently
    enjoined the same seven restrictions. Guffey v. Duff, 
    459 F. Supp. 3d 227
    , 232 (D.D.C. 2020). Its injunction covered “all
    AO employees except the six high-level ‘designated
    employees’” to whom a different set of restrictions applied. Id.
    at 256. It granted the AO summary judgment on Guffey and
    Smith’s challenge to the driving and organizing restrictions.
    Id. at 252.
    Both parties appealed their losses.
    II
    Because the First Amendment prohibits the government
    from “abridging the freedom of speech,” the AO’s restrictions
    on Guffey and Smith’s off-duty political speech and activities
    are unconstitutional. U.S. Const. amend. I.
    A
    The government has unique interests in its employees’
    conduct. See United States v. National Treasury Employees
    Union, 
    513 U.S. 454
    , 465-66 (1995). Those interests allow it
    to regulate some of its employees’ speech, including even
    political speech, in ways it could not regulate the general
    public. 
    Id.
    But the government cannot condition public employment
    on the complete surrender of a citizen’s First Amendment
    rights. 
    Id. at 465
    ; see also Janus v. American Federation of
    State, County, and Municipal Employees, 
    138 S. Ct. 2448
    ,
    2471 (2018). Instead, the government must justify prospective
    restrictions on its employees’ off-duty speech by showing that
    the speech’s “‘necessary impact on the actual operation’ of the
    Government” outweighs the employees’ right to speak and the
    7
    nation’s need to hear them. National Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 468
     (quoting Pickering v. Board of Education, 
    391 U.S. 563
    , 571 (1968)).2
    In this case, the weight of AO employees’ right to express
    their political opinions outside the office is considerable. Time
    and again, the Supreme Court has held that political speech
    must receive “the highest level of First Amendment
    protection.” Williams-Yulee v. Florida Bar, 
    575 U.S. 433
    , 443
    (2015). That’s in large part because of “the close connection
    between our Nation’s commitment to self-government and the
    rights protected by the First Amendment.                The First
    Amendment creates an open marketplace in which differing
    ideas about political, economic, and social issues can compete
    freely for public acceptance without improper government
    interference.” Knox v. Service Employees International Union,
    Local 1000, 
    567 U.S. 298
    , 308-09 (2012) (cleaned up).
    In light of the weight of the employees’ interest in political
    expression, the AO has a “heavy” burden. National Treasury
    Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 466
    . It must identify a commensurate
    threat to its operations that justifies banning its employees’ off-
    duty speech. 
    Id. at 475
    .
    2
    Janus questioned whether the Pickering test properly applies to “a
    blanket requirement” that burdens the speech of many employees, as
    opposed to the one-employee disciplinary context that Pickering
    presented. 
    138 S. Ct. at 2472
     (“we have acknowledged that the
    standard Pickering analysis requires modification” for blanket rules,
    and “[t]he end product of those adjustments is a test that more closely
    resembles exacting scrutiny than the traditional Pickering analysis”).
    But it did not formally alter National Treasury Employees’s
    articulation of the basic standard, so that articulation remains
    controlling.
    8
    That     threat   must      be     “real,     not    merely
    conjectural” — “mere speculation” is not enough. 
    Id.
     (quoting
    Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. v. FCC, 
    512 U.S. 622
    , 664
    (1994)). And as with any application of heightened scrutiny,
    what it takes to show a real threat “will vary up or down with
    the novelty and plausibility of the justification raised.” Nixon
    v. Shrink Missouri Government PAC, 
    528 U.S. 377
    , 391
    (2000).
    To see the difference between “mere speculation” and a
    “real” threat, compare United States v. National Treasury
    Employees to Williams-Yulee v. Florida Bar. In National
    Treasury Employees, the Supreme Court addressed Congress’s
    novel concern that employees accepting honoraria for writing
    or speaking would lead them to “misuse or appear to misuse
    power.” 
    513 U.S. at 472
    . Because that risk was far from self-
    evident, Congress needed to provide evidence. 
    Id. at 473
    . It
    didn’t. 
    Id. at 472
    . So the Court decided that Congress’s
    concern could not justify the ban on honoraria. 
    Id. at 477
    . In
    Williams-Yulee, on the other hand, the Court addressed the
    “regrettable but unavoidable appearance that judges who
    personally ask for money may diminish their integrity.” 575
    U.S. at 447 (emphasis added). That concern was neither novel
    nor implausible, so “proof by documentary record” was
    unnecessary. Id.
    Finally, even after it has identified a real threat, a
    government employer may impose only those speech
    restrictions that are “reasonably necessary to protect the
    efficiency of the public service” against the threat. National
    Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 474
    .
    9
    B
    The AO posits three threats to justify its prohibitions on
    employees’ political expression outside the office. Each is too
    speculative to survive the scrutiny required for a regulation of
    political speech.
    1
    First, the AO argues that political expression by its
    employees could undermine the public perception of the
    Judiciary as an impartial adjudicative body.
    That perception is “a state interest of the highest order.”
    Williams-Yulee, 575 U.S. at 446 (quoting Caperton v. A.T.
    Massey Coal Co., 
    556 U.S. 868
    , 889 (2009)). So the AO may
    take steps “reasonably necessary” to preserve it. National
    Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 474
    . But the connection
    between that interest and the AO’s ban on off-duty speech
    looks more like the loose connection in National Treasury
    Employees than the narrow tailoring in Williams-Yulee.
    For starters, in Williams-Yulee, the regulation allowed
    judicial candidates to “discuss any issue with any person at any
    time.” 575 U.S. at 452. It just prohibited them from soliciting
    campaign contributions and public endorsements. Id. at 439.
    That prohibition was based on the “intuitive” notion that
    “Judges, charged with exercising strict neutrality and
    independence, cannot supplicate campaign donors without
    diminishing public confidence in judicial integrity.” Id. at 445.
    The connection between the AO’s speech restriction and
    the Judiciary’s reputation for deciding cases impartially is not
    as intuitive. Guffey and Smith do not decide the outcome — or
    even make recommendations about the outcome — of
    10
    individual cases. That matters because conduct threatens
    judges’ reputation for impartiality when it threatens judges’
    reputation for impartially deciding cases. See Williams-Yulee,
    575 U.S. at 445-46 (our authority to decide cases “depends in
    large measure on the public’s willingness to respect and
    follow” our judgments).
    To credit the AO’s concern for the perception of judicial
    impartiality, we would have to assume that the public is aware
    of the AO. There is nothing in the record to suggest that it is.
    But even granting the AO that unlikely premise, we would
    have to further assume that the public first will learn about the
    political activity of AO employees like Guffey and Smith and
    then will lose confidence in judges’ adjudication of cases
    because those employees support a particular candidate on their
    own time. Those two assumptions are novel, implausible, and
    unsubstantiated: Even with eight decades of AO history to
    draw from, the AO has excavated no instance of off-duty
    political conduct by an AO employee that has injured the
    Judiciary’s reputation. See Shrink Missouri Government, 
    528 U.S. at 391
    ; National Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 472
    .
    That silent record is strong evidence that AO employees can
    speak on matters of public concern without tarnishing the
    reputation of the Judiciary.
    Without evidence, the AO makes its case for censorship
    by (1) speculating that AO employees’ off-duty speech could
    be exploited by nefarious foreign actors in novel ways,
    (2) analogizing its employees’ speech to the partisan activities
    of key investigators at the center of the century’s most high-
    profile investigation of an American president, and
    (3) conflating judges and AO employees. We’ll address each
    in turn.
    11
    First, the AO says that nefarious actors like Russian
    propaganda agencies could try to attribute AO employees’
    private political expression to the Judiciary as a whole, in order
    to falsely characterize the Judiciary as partisan. But that is
    “mere speculation.” National Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 475
    . And the speculative prospect of Russian propaganda
    does not justify censoring the political speech of American
    citizens. Cf. United States v. Alvarez, 
    567 U.S. 709
    , 727 (2012)
    (plurality opinion) (“The remedy for speech that is false is
    speech that is true.”).
    Second, the AO speculates that the Judiciary will face
    accusations of partisan bias like the criticism Special Counsel
    Robert Mueller’s investigative team faced several years ago.
    But that analogy doesn’t work. Mueller’s investigators
    prepared subpoenas,3 questioned witnesses,4 advised Mueller
    on when to bring charges,5 and drafted conclusions about
    allegations that could have led to a president’s impeachment.6
    3
    Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller, III, U.S. Department of Justice,
    Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016
    Presidential Election: Volume I of II 13 (2019) (the Special
    Counsel’s office “issued more than 2,800 subpoenas”).
    4
    Darren Samuelsohn, What Mueller’s Org Chart Reveals About His
    Russia        Probe,      POLITICO        (Nov.      13,      2017),
    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/13/robert-mueller-russia-
    probe-organization-244789.
    5
    
    Id.
     One lawyer advised on “interpreting federal criminal statutes”
    and the “special counsel’s own boundaries for pursuing” a “case
    against a sitting president.”
    6
    Josh Gerstein, Justice Dept: Mueller Prepared No Reports to
    Congress,           POLITICO          (Feb.         7,        2020),
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/07/justice-department-
    mueller-112388 (noting that “the special counsel’s team drafted” a
    report that “[s]ome observers compared . . . [to] impeachment
    12
    They wielded the Special Counsel’s substantive power, just as
    judges wield the judicial power, so they were a predictable
    focus of criticism. It would have been quite unexpected,
    however, if anyone had attempted to weaponize the political
    preferences of the essential support staff who worked with the
    Special Counsel.
    Third, the AO speculates that scrutiny of employees’
    political speech might one day resemble the scrutiny of the
    Judicial Conference’s Code of Conduct Committee after it
    proposed guidance about judges’ membership in the American
    Bar Association, the American Constitution Society, and the
    Federalist Society. Before that proposal was abandoned, a
    congressman questioned the “biases and motivations of the
    opinion’s drafters” — but he asked about the committee
    members’ membership in those groups, not their political
    affiliations.7 More importantly, those committee members
    were judges, not AO employees. That is why, as the AO
    recognizes, criticism of the committee’s guidance focused on
    the judges’ backgrounds, not the AO employees who assisted
    them.8 And even if we assume that the AO can limit the off-
    duty political speech of employees who make policy
    recommendations to that committee, it is not “reasonably
    necessary” to impose the same limits on AO employees whose
    fodder . . . although the articles of impeachment . . . largely
    overlooked” it).
    7
    Appellant’s Brief at 37 (quoting Letter from Rep. Jim Jordan to
    Sheryl       Walter   (May     18,     2020),     https://republicans-
    judiciary.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020-05-18-JDJ-
    to-Judicial-Conference-re-Draft-Advisory-Opinion.pdf).
    8
    Appellant’s Brief at 36 (One article cited “the fact that a judge on
    the committee had donated (prior to joining the bench) to a Senator
    who had spoken out on the issue.”).
    13
    work is nothing like that. National Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 474
    .
    2
    The AO also argues that if Congress learns of AO
    employees’ political views, it will have less faith in the
    employees’ ability to be neutral messengers for the Judiciary.9
    The AO has identified no other case that has considered
    the weight of the AO’s concern for the Judiciary’s relationship
    with Congress. That relationship is undoubtedly important.
    The Judiciary relies on Congress for essentials like funding, the
    creation of judgeships, and the construction of courthouses.
    And Congress looks to the Judiciary for advice on subjects like
    death-penalty reform, the propriety of nationwide injunctions,
    and other court-facing issues.
    But even assuming the AO’s new ban on off-duty political
    speech is defensible when applied to employees who work with
    the other branches, the AO has offered no reason to think that
    most of its employees do such work. Instead, the AO censored
    all of its 1,100 employees because it says that “it is difficult to
    predict with certainty which AO employees will be required, as
    part of their job responsibilities, to represent the Judiciary to
    the other branches of government.” JA 142 ¶ 21.
    That difficulty does not satisfy the AO’s “heavy” burden.
    National Treasury Employees, 575 U.S. at 466; cf. Janus, 
    138 S. Ct. at 2477
     (logistical concerns about preventing free riders
    could not justify a “heavy burden” on “First Amendment
    9
    Although the AO also mentions its relationship with the Executive
    Branch, it offers little explanation of, or argument about, that
    relationship. So like the AO, we will focus on Congress.
    14
    interests”). Some employees who will appear before Congress
    are obvious. For example, the Office of Legislative Affairs
    “carries out the Judiciary’s legislative liaison activities with
    Congress and other government entities.” JA 138, ¶ 14.d.
    Perhaps the AO can impose its new rule on employees there
    who might one day meet with members of Congress or their
    staffs. But many other employees — like Guffey and
    Smith — have no reason to think that they will ever interact
    with Congress. Censoring their off-duty political speech is not
    “reasonably necessary” to address the AO’s concern for the
    Judiciary’s relationship with the other branches. National
    Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 474
    .10
    3
    The AO’s last concern is that judges will not trust AO
    employees who engage in partisan political expression while
    off-duty. But even assuming that judges will learn of AO
    employees’ private activity, this concern is implausible.
    The AO’s argument focuses on the 30 or so employees
    who advise judges on sensitive matters like recusals and
    participation in outside activities. That alone indicates that
    imposing the restrictions on all 1,100 AO employees — from
    the HR professional who processes a travel reimbursement to
    the IT-help-desk worker who assists a judge with a forgotten
    password — is not “reasonably necessary to protect the
    10
    Of course, none of this should be read to imply that any AO
    employee’s work is more important than any other’s. We are simply
    highlighting the disconnect between the speculative threats that the
    AO identified and the work that most of its employees do. All AO
    employees provide the Judiciary essential and much appreciated
    support.
    15
    efficiency of the public service.”           National Treasury
    Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 474
    .
    Even as to those 30 employees, though, there is some
    reason to doubt the foundation of the AO’s predicted harm. It
    conflicts with “the powerful and realistic presumption that the
    federal work force consists of dedicated and honorable civil
    servants.” National Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 476
    .
    And we have no reason to doubt the AO when it tells us that its
    employees fit that bill by performing “their job duties and tasks
    without regard for partisan considerations.” R.24-1 ¶ 28.
    III
    The above analysis applies equally to all nine speech
    restrictions, from publicly stating political opinions to
    organizing political events. But the district court treated two
    of those nine restrictions differently: driving voters to the polls
    and organizing events for a partisan candidate. Guffey, 459 F.
    Supp. 3d at 251. That differential treatment turned largely on
    the district court’s belief that the Supreme Court’s approval of
    similar restrictions on Executive Branch employees in the
    Hatch Act “strongly supports their legality” here. Id. at 252.
    Although the district court’s analysis was thoughtful and
    thorough, we disagree.
    In the Hatch Act context, the Court held that speech
    restrictions were justified by a federal interest in ensuring “that
    the rapidly expanding Government work force should not be
    employed to build a powerful, invincible, and perhaps corrupt
    political machine.” United States Civil Service Commission v.
    National Association of Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. 548
    , 565
    (1973). Importantly, Congress sought to protect employees
    from “pressure and from express or tacit invitation to vote in a
    16
    certain way or perform political chores in order to curry favor
    with their superiors rather than to act out their own beliefs.” 
    Id. at 566
    . It had extensive evidence of such pressures. See, e.g.
    84 Cong. Rec. 9598 (1939) (statement of Rep. Taylor)
    (describing Works Progress Administration supervisors
    forcing WPA workers to place part of their paycheck “under
    the Democratic donkey paperweight” on their supervisor’s
    desk).
    Thus, the Hatch Act’s restrictions passed muster because
    they “aimed to protect employees’ rights, notably their right to
    free expression, rather than to restrict those rights.” National
    Treasury Employees, 
    513 U.S. at 471
    . That is not the case here.
    The AO makes no claim that its censorship protects its
    employees’ rights. Instead, the AO restricts its employees’
    expression to fend off speculative harms to its own operational
    interests. So the Hatch Act’s balance between employees’
    speech rights and protecting employees from political pressure
    offers little guidance here.
    Absent the belief that precedent directs it, there is no
    reason to treat driving voters to the polls and organizing
    political events differently from the other seven prohibited
    modes of political expression. They all implicate core First
    Amendment rights. See Monitor Patriot Co. v. Roy, 
    401 U.S. 265
    , 272 (1971). And, again, the AO has failed to show that
    they present any non-speculative threat to its operations.
    IV
    We turn now to the scope of relief. The district court
    reasoned that because analyzing a prospective restriction on
    employee speech “requires the court to go beyond the facts of
    the particular case before it,” granting an injunction to all AO
    employees was appropriate. Guffey, 459 F. Supp. 3d at 256
    17
    (quoting Sanjour v. EPA, 
    56 F.3d 85
    , 92 (D.C. Cir. 1995)). But
    the analysis of a right and the choice of a remedy are distinct
    concepts. Brown v. Sessoms, 
    774 F.3d 1016
    , 1021 (D.C. Cir.
    2014).
    That’s why, in applying the same test in National Treasury
    Employees, the Supreme Court still emphasized the age-old
    principle that “we neither want nor need to provide relief to
    nonparties when a narrower remedy will fully protect the
    litigants.” 
    513 U.S. at 478
    . Applying that principle makes
    especially good sense here — the AO may believe that
    employees who do different jobs than Guffey and Smith should
    be subject to different restrictions. We cannot assess that belief
    on the record before us. And an injunction that applies only to
    Guffey and Smith will fully protect their rights. That narrower
    remedy is therefore the right one.
    Further, the AO is a government entity with an
    independent duty to uphold the Constitution. We trust that
    upon receipt of our judgment, it will reconsider the contested
    restrictions for employees whose work is comparable to (or less
    sensitive than) the work Guffey and Smith do.
    *    *    *
    The AO wants to maintain the Judiciary’s reputation for
    independence from politics. That is among the worthiest of
    goals. And no one in this case takes issue with the AO’s
    longstanding prohibition of political speech by its employees
    when they are at the office. But the AO cannot prohibit
    political speech by Guffey and Smith when they are away from
    work and in no way affiliating themselves with the Judiciary.
    We affirm the district court’s grant of summary judgment
    to Guffey and Smith, but we limit its injunction against the first
    18
    seven restrictions to apply only to Guffey and Smith. We
    reverse its grant of summary judgment to the AO on the other
    two restrictions, and we remand for it to enjoin their application
    to Guffey and Smith as well.
    So ordered.
    KAREN LECRAFT HENDERSON, Circuit Judge, dissenting: I
    agree with my colleagues that Lisa Guffey and Christine Smith
    both have a strong interest in freely participating in the political
    process, a right fundamental to our democracy. See
    McCutcheon v. FEC, 
    572 U.S. 185
    , 191 (2014) (plurality
    opinion). And few, if any, could deny that the challenged
    restrictions on the partisan political activities of Administrative
    Office of the United States Courts (AO) employees encroach
    on that right. On the other side of balance, however, is the
    “genuine and compelling” interest in safeguarding the “public
    perception of judicial integrity,” Williams-Yulee v. Fla. Bar,
    
    575 U.S. 433
    , 446, 447 (2015), “a state interest of the highest
    order,” id. at 446 (quoting Caperton v. A.T. Massey Coal Co.,
    
    556 U.S. 868
    , 889 (2009)). “The guarantee of an independent,
    impartial judiciary enables society to ‘withdraw certain
    subjects from the vicissitudes of political controversy, to place
    them beyond the reach of majorities and officials and to
    establish them as legal principles to be applied by the courts.’”
    Republican Party of Minn. v. White, 
    536 U.S. 765
    , 804 (2002)
    (Ginsburg, J., dissenting) (quoting W. Va. Bd. of Ed. v.
    Barnette, 
    319 U.S. 624
    , 638 (1943)); see also United States v.
    Will, 
    449 U.S. 200
    , 217–18 (1980) (“A Judiciary free from
    control by the Executive and the Legislature is essential if there
    is a right to have claims decided by judges who are free from
    potential domination by other branches of government.”). With
    neither “sword” nor “purse” to safeguard its independence, see
    The Federalist No. 78, at 465 (Alexander Hamilton) (Clinton
    Rossiter ed., 1961), the Judiciary’s position of authority within
    our constitutional framework “depends in large measure on the
    public’s willingness to respect and follow its decisions,” see
    Williams-Yulee, 575 U.S. at 445–46. Yet recent evidence
    indicates that public confidence in the Judiciary is in decline.
    See Brandon L. Bartels & Christopher D. Johnston, On the
    Ideological Foundations of Supreme Court Legitimacy in the
    American Public, 57 Am. J. Pol. Sci. 184, 185–86 (2013)
    (“[I]ndividuals grant or deny the [Supreme] Court legitimacy
    based on the ideological tenor of the Court’s” decisions.); see
    2
    also Megan Brenan, Americans’ Trust in Government Remains
    Low, Gallup News (Sept. 30, 2021). 1
    In revising its employees’ code of conduct to impose the
    nine challenged restrictions on partisan political conduct, 2 the
    AO has attempted to safeguard this vital faith in the Judiciary
    as a body of independence and impartiality. Yet the majority
    gives short shrift to its attempt. Because I find the AO has
    adequately justified its restrictions, as required under United
    States v. National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU), 
    513 U.S. 454
     (1995), I would reverse the district court’s partial
    invalidation of the restrictions and allow all nine to take effect. 3
    Accordingly, and with respect, I dissent.
    I. Administrative Office’s Burden
    I first depart from my colleagues regarding the AO’s
    evidentiary burden under the NTEU framework. As discussed
    infra, the AO need provide only a reasonable ground to
    1
    Available at https://news.gallup.com/poll/355124/americans-
    trust-government-remains-low.aspx.
    2
    The restrictions prohibit AO employees from (1) publicly
    expressing opinions about partisan candidates or political parties,
    including on social media; (2) wearing or displaying partisan badges,
    signs or buttons; (3) contributing money to a party, candidate or
    political action committee; (4) attending partisan fundraisers; (5)
    attending a partisan candidate’s campaign events; (6) attending party
    conventions, rallies and meetings; (7) belonging to a partisan
    political organization (other than registering as a member of a
    political party for voting); (8) driving voters to the polls on behalf of
    a party or candidate; and (9) organizing events for a partisan
    candidate.
    3
    I agree with my colleagues that the restrictions precluding AO
    employees from driving voters to the polls and organizing events for
    a partisan candidate should not be treated differently from the other
    seven; all nine rise or fall together. See Majority Op. at 15–16.
    3
    conclude that the harms it fears will occur. But documentary
    evidence of past harm is only one way to support its
    restrictions. And precedent like Williams-Yulee v. Florida Bar,
    
    575 U.S. 433
     (2015), highlights how preserving the perception
    of judicial impartiality is a compelling interest—one that
    extends beyond adjudication of discrete cases.
    To impose a prospective, generally applicable restriction
    on employee speech, the government is required to “show that
    the interests of both potential audiences and a vast group of
    present and future employees in a broad range of present and
    future expression are outweighed by that expression’s
    ‘necessary impact on the actual operation’ of the Government.”
    NTEU, 
    513 U.S. at 468
     (quoting Pickering v. Bd. of Educ., 
    391 U.S. 563
    , 571 (1968)). In other words, the government must
    show that the harms it aims at are “real, not merely conjectural”
    and that “the regulation will in fact alleviate the[] harms in a
    direct and material way.” Id. at 475 (quoting Turner Broad.
    Sys., Inc. v. FCC, 
    512 U.S. 622
    , 664 (1994)). The government
    must also demonstrate that the restriction’s “sweep” is
    “reasonably necessary to protect the efficiency of the public
    service.” Id. at 466, 474.
    In support of the challenged restrictions, the AO asserts
    three interests centered on protecting the perception of the
    Judiciary as a nonpartisan, impartial body: first, in the public
    view (Public Perception Interest); second, in the view of
    members of the two elected branches (Inter-Branch Interest);
    and finally, in the view of the Judiciary itself (Intra-Branch
    Interest). See Guffey v. Duff (Guffey II), 
    459 F. Supp. 3d 227
    ,
    236–37 (D.D.C. 2020); see also Duff Decl. ¶ 23, Joint
    Appendix (J.A.) 143. In describing the AO’s burden, the
    district court focused on NTEU’s requirement that the
    government’s recited harms be “real, not merely conjectural,”
    Guffey II, 459 F. Supp. 3d at 241 (quoting NTEU, 
    513 U.S. at
    4
    475), and concluded that the AO must “point to documentary
    evidence showing that employees’ activities have eroded
    public confidence in the past and will continue to do so if left
    unrestricted,” id. at 243 (quoting Guffey v. Duff (Guffey I), 
    330 F. Supp. 3d 66
    , 76 (D.D.C. 2018)). The district court then
    seemed to “relax[]” the burden for the Public Perception
    Interest and allowed the AO to rely on “realistic hypotheticals
    of how partisan activity restricted under the Code could lead
    the public to believe that the judiciary is not behaving
    impartially.” Id. at 244 (quoting Guffey I, 330 F. Supp. 3d at
    76). It did so in light of Williams-Yulee’s caution that “the
    concept of public trust in judicial impartiality ‘does not easily
    reduce to precise definition, nor does it lend itself to proof by
    documentary record.’” Guffey I, 330 F. Supp. 3d at 76 (quoting
    Williams-Yulee, 575 U.S. at 447). But the district court
    declined to relax the burden for the AO’s Inter-Branch and
    Intra-Branch Interests by limiting its analysis to public trust in
    the Judiciary’s adjudicative function and ignoring the
    Judiciary’s administrative role. See Guffey II, 549 F. Supp. 3d
    at 244.
    As I see it, the district court imposed too high an
    evidentiary burden. Notwithstanding NTEU’s mandate, see
    also Nixon v. Shrink Mo. Gov’t PAC, 
    528 U.S. 377
    , 392 (2000)
    (“We have never accepted mere conjecture as adequate to carry
    a First Amendment burden . . . .”), it does not follow that “real”
    evidence requires “documentary” evidence in all situations. As
    the majority rightly notes, see Majority Op. at 8, the
    government’s evidentiary burden in the First Amendment
    context “will vary up or down with the novelty and plausibility
    of the justification raised.” Shrink Mo. Gov’t PAC, 
    528 U.S. at 391
    . This holds true even for restrictions reviewed under strict
    scrutiny. See Lorillard Tobacco Co. v. Reilly, 
    533 U.S. 525
    ,
    555 (2001) (“[W]e have permitted litigants . . . even[] in a case
    applying strict scrutiny, to justify restrictions based solely on
    5
    history, consensus, and simple common sense.” (internal
    quotation marks omitted) (quoting Fla. Bar v. Went For It, Inc.,
    
    515 U.S. 618
    , 628 (1995)); see also Williams-Yulee, 575 U.S.
    at 448 (government is “not require[d] . . . to tolerate . . . risks”
    to public perception of judicial integrity (emphasis added));
    Blount v. SEC, 
    61 F.3d 938
    , 939–40, 943–45 (D.C. Cir. 1995)
    (applying strict scrutiny to SEC restrictions on municipal
    finance professionals’ campaign contributions to state and
    local officials but rejecting argument that agency must show
    “specific instances of quid pro quos”).
    In NTEU itself, the Supreme Court, after referencing the
    “real, not merely conjectural” harm requirement, noted that the
    government can rely on the fear or risk of harm so long as there
    is “‘reasonable ground to fear that serious evil will result if free
    speech is practiced.’” 
    513 U.S. at 475
     (quoting Whitney v.
    California, 
    274 U.S. 357
    , 376 (1927) (Brandeis, J.,
    concurring)). Similarly, in Weaver v. United States Information
    Agency, 
    87 F.3d 1429
     (D.C. Cir. 1996), we upheld a policy
    requiring prepublication review of employees’ “speaking,
    writing, and teaching material on matters of official concern”
    in furtherance of the agency’s “compelling” interest in
    safeguarding classified information, 
    id. at 1431, 1441
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted), without requiring documentary
    evidence of past harm. Instead, the agency supported its review
    of speech by personnel without direct access to classified
    information via an affidavit explaining that such employees
    may unknowingly come into contact with classified
    information. 
    Id. at 1441
    . 4
    4
    Granted, in Weaver we upheld a review of employee speech,
    not an outright prohibition, in order to avoid “constitutional
    difficulties.” 
    87 F.3d at 1440
    . Weaver nevertheless indicates that
    simply invoking the NTEU test does not suffice to make
    documentary evidence necessary.
    6
    Williams-Yulee is the Supreme Court’s most recent
    elaboration on the governmental interest in preserving
    confidence in the Judiciary. Williams-Yulee involved a
    provision of the Florida Supreme Court’s Code of Judicial
    Conduct that forbade elected judges from personally soliciting
    campaign funds. 
    575 U.S. 439
    –40. The Court upheld the
    restriction, recognizing that “public perception of judicial
    integrity is ‘a state interest of the highest order.’” Id. at 446
    (quoting Caperton, 
    556 U.S. at 889
    ). Important here, the Court
    observed that, although “[t]he concept of public confidence in
    judicial integrity does not easily reduce to precise definition,
    nor does it lend itself to proof by documentary record,” the
    need to safeguard that confidence “is genuine and compelling.”
    Id. at 447. There, the Court applied strict scrutiny—a standard
    of review higher than that applied in NTEU—but did not
    require documentary evidence of past harm. Cf. Williams-
    Yulee, 575 U.S. at 447–48 (government is “not require[d] . . .
    to tolerate the[] risks” to public perception of judicial integrity
    (emphasis added)).
    The district court limited Williams-Yulee to the AO’s
    Public Perception Interest and to the Judiciary’s adjudicative
    function, see Guffey II, 459 F. Supp. 3d at 243–44, but I believe
    that limitation is unwarranted. There is little reason to think that
    the AO’s interests in preserving the Judiciary’s reputation for
    impartiality among members of the elected branches—with
    which it routinely interacts—as well as within the Judiciary and
    its Administrative Office inter se are any less compelling or
    less susceptible of “precise definition” than preserving its
    reputation with the general public. Williams-Yulee, 575 U.S. at
    447. Further, I doubt that public perception can be isolated
    from elected officials’ perception. The latter are elected, and
    therefore influenced, by the former. See McCutcheon, 572 U.S.
    at 227 (plurality opinion) (“Representatives are not to follow
    constituent orders, but can be expected to be cognizant of and
    7
    responsive to those concerns. Such responsiveness is key to the
    very concept of self-governance through elected officials.”); cf.
    Gravel v. United States, 
    408 U.S. 606
    , 661 (1972) (Brennan, J.,
    dissenting) (“The dialogue between Congress and people has
    been recognized, from the days of our founding, as one of the
    necessary elements of a representative system.”). And political
    conflicts within and between governmental branches and
    institutions necessarily spill into the public sphere. See
    generally David R. Mayhew, America’s Congress: Actions in
    the Public Sphere, James Madison Through Newt Gingrich 1–
    28 (2000).
    Moreover, although Williams-Yulee does not speak to the
    Judiciary outside its adjudicative function, or to its relationship
    with the Congress, other decisions do. For example, in
    Mistretta v. United States, 
    488 U.S. 361
     (1989), the Supreme
    Court considered the propriety of federal judges’ membership
    on the United States Sentencing Commission—what the Court
    deemed “judiciary involvement in the making of policy”—and
    whether participation in policy-making risked “undermin[ing]
    public confidence in the disinterestedness of the Judicial
    Branch,” 
    id. at 407
    . The Court has also considered how its
    “exercise of judicial power”—its adjudicative function—
    “affects relationships between the coequal arms of the National
    Government,” aware that “when employed unwisely or
    unnecessarily,” that power can pose a “threat to the continued
    effectiveness of the federal courts.” Valley Forge Christian
    Coll. v. Ams. United for Separation of Church and State, Inc.,
    
    454 U.S. 464
    , 473 (1982). This precedent recognizes the
    Judiciary’s awareness of its significant role outside the
    courtroom. Indeed, the AO regularly interacts with the
    Congress to secure funding and influence policies affecting the
    Judiciary, including, inter alia, new judgeships, the federal
    rules of procedure and evidence, federal jurisdiction and
    pretrial and probationary services. See Duff Decl. ¶ 11, J.A.
    8
    134–36. The AO has a designated Office of Legislative Affairs
    to facilitate this relationship, see id. at ¶ 14, J.A. 138–39, and
    former legislative staffers attest to the essential role the AO
    plays in advocating for the Judiciary and advising the Congress
    on judicial matters, see Cooney Decl. ¶ 9, J.A. 164; see also
    Weich Decl. ¶ 11, J.A. 176–77. Lacking either “sword” or
    “purse,” see The Federalist No. 78, at 465, the Judiciary’s
    reputation—and, of necessity, the AO’s reputation—for
    nonpartisanship and impartiality is the currency with which it
    is able to negotiate on behalf of its interests. No less than with
    its adjudicative function, the Judiciary’s status as a co-equal
    branch to set its administrative and policymaking priorities
    “depends in large measure” on the Congress’s “willingness to
    respect” its position as an impartial, nonpartisan branch. See
    Williams-Yulee, 575 U.S. at 445–46. The alternative is a
    Judiciary “drawn into political disputes with other branches,”
    which serves only to “diminish its legitimacy before [the]
    general public as well.” Appellant’s Br. 33; cf. Valley Forge
    Christian Coll., 
    454 U.S. at 474
     (1982) (Powell, J., concurring)
    (“[R]epeated and essentially head-on confrontations between
    the life-tenured branch and the representative branches of
    government will not, in the long run, be beneficial to either.”
    (alteration in original) (quoting United States v. Richardson,
    
    418 U.S. 166
    , 188 (1974) (Powell, J., concurring))).
    II. Administrative Office’s Interests
    The next questions are whether the AO’s “recited harms
    are real, not merely conjectural” and whether the challenged
    restrictions “will in fact alleviate these harms in a direct and
    material way.” NTEU, 
    513 U.S. at 475
     (quoting Turner Broad.
    Sys., 
    512 U.S. at 664
    ).
    9
    A. Public Perception Interest
    The AO’s Public Perception Interest is premised on the
    concern that its employees’ partisan political activities will
    undermine the public perception of the Judiciary as an
    apolitical, impartial body. As the majority notes, the AO has
    not isolated a specific instance of this fear’s materialization.
    See Majority Op. at 10. But here, “materialization” may be
    provable only by assessing the risk of harm. The AO has
    pointed out instances of entities leveraging the political
    activities of government employees to impeach their
    employer’s reputation and further a partisan agenda and has
    submitted affidavits attesting to the risk that similar partisan
    attacks could be aimed at the AO without the challenged
    prohibitions. Its showing provides, at least to me, a “reasonable
    ground” to support the AO’s Public Perception Interest, in
    furtherance of which a ban on partisan political activity is the
    most “direct and material” means of eliminating that risk.
    NTEU, 
    513 U.S. at 475
     (quoting Turner Broad. Sys., 
    512 U.S. at 664
    ).
    The AO has described instances of opposition research
    firms and partisan-aligned groups seeking information
    regarding politically focused emails sent and campaign
    contributions made by employees of the National Oceanic and
    Atmospheric Administration, the Environmental Protection
    Agency and the Internal Revenue Service—information sought
    in order to cast doubt on the reputation and policies of the
    employing agency. See Appellant’s Br. 41; Appellant’s Reply
    Br. 20–21; see also; Phillip Bump, What campaign
    contributions tell us about the partisanship of government
    employees, Wash. Post (Dec. 27, 2018) 5; Timothy P. Carney,
    5
    Available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/
    12/27/is-trumps-dismissal-unpaid-government-employees-
    democrats-accurate/.
    10
    The IRS Is Deeply Political—and Very Democratic, Wash.
    Exam’r (May 15, 2013). 6 It did not matter to these entities
    whether the targeted employees in fact wielded any significant
    influence in the policy matters at issue. Similarly, it does not
    matter if a particular AO employee lacks significant power
    over the AO’s policy-making functions or the Judiciary’s
    adjudication of cases, see Majority Op. at 9–10, as the AO
    itself, through its employees, routinely engages in potentially
    contentious debates relating to the nation’s judicial system, see
    infra p. 13–14.
    The AO’s examples track with its submitted declarations,
    including one from a lobbyist and former congressional staffer
    who attested that he was “aware of firms whose business
    models include the dissemination of this type of political
    information in order to seek to portray particular groups or
    individuals as supporting or opposing a particular partisan
    agenda.” Cooney Decl. ¶ 16, J.A. 168. This information, the
    lobbyist noted, can then be packaged and presented “to a media
    organization or publication for dissemination to the general
    public.” 
    Id.
     If this sort of targeted aggregation and
    dissemination of political activity routinely occurs with
    executive-branch employees and agencies, it is no stretch to
    conclude it can—and will—happen with AO employees.
    The district court nevertheless faulted the AO’s
    hypotheticals premised on these sorts of partisan attacks for
    being based on an untenable chain of inferences:
    [M]embers of the public would [1] need to
    observe an AO employee engaged in partisan
    activity, [2] somehow come to know that the
    person in the photo or social media post is an
    6
    Available at https://www.aei.org/articles/the-irs-is-deeply-
    political-and-very-democratic/.
    11
    AO employee, [3] understand that AO
    employees work with federal judges, [4] but
    mistakenly believe that they play a role in
    handling individual cases, and [5] assume—
    based on ordinary expressions of political
    preference—that the AO employee is so
    politically biased that she would be willing to
    violate her professional ethical obligations by
    attempting to sway the outcome of a case.
    Guffey II, 459 F. Supp. 3d at 249. The majority in effect echoes
    the district court. See Majority Op. at 10 (labeling the
    assumptions “novel, implausible, and unsubstantiated”).
    Assuming Williams-Yulee should not be limited to the
    Judiciary’s adjudicative function as opposed to its
    administrative and policy-making functions, see supra p. 6–8,
    I believe the chain of inferences is not implausible. For one
    thing, not all members of the public are neutral observers and
    we cannot ignore that partisanship is an unavoidable fact of
    21st-century society. For another, to identify an individual who
    engages in political expression as an AO employee is not
    difficult for an even mildly motivated actor. Individuals,
    including government employees, regularly post their
    headshots and job titles on networking websites like LinkedIn.
    Further, the increased use of “doxxing”—“publicly
    identify[ing] or publish[ing] private information about
    (someone) especially as a form of punishment or revenge” 7—
    makes public identification of a person all the more likely. See
    Nellie Bowles, How ‘Doxxing’ Became a Mainstream Tool in
    the Culture Wars, N.Y. Times (Aug. 30, 2017) 8; see also
    7
    Dox, Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/
    dictionary/dox (last visited July 25, 2022).
    8
    Available       at      https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/
    technology/doxxing-protests.html.
    12
    Callum Borchers, Doxxed Trump Donors Have an Unlikely
    Defender in this Democratic Congressional Candidate, Wash.
    Post (Apr. 30, 2017) (highlighting Twitter account tweeting
    “the names, hometowns, occupations and employers of people
    who contributed . . . to [former President] Trump’s
    campaign”). 9 As a more concrete example, an individual’s
    political contributions, alongside his employment information,
    is publicly available through the Federal Election
    Commission’s database. See Cooney Decl. ¶ 16, J.A. 168–69;
    Weich Decl. ¶ 18, J.A. 180; see also Federal Election Comm’n,
    Campaign Finance Data (last visited July 25, 2022). 10 Finally,
    once a motivated actor compiles the identifying information, is
    it likely he/it will pause to learn whether those AO employees
    are in fact involved in the Judiciary’s adjudicative function
    before packaging the information for consumption by media
    and the general public? These examples involving executive-
    branch employees indicate that hesitation is unlikely.
    To the extent the chain of inferences is deemed
    implausible because the AO is a small or unfamiliar office, see
    Appellees’ Br. 38–39, this conclusion is also unwarranted. It is
    far from remote that members of the public might fail to
    differentiate employees of the Administrative Office of the
    United States Courts from those employees located in
    courthouses; nor is it implausible for a partisan group to gloss
    over any such distinction before packaging its message for
    dissemination to the public, especially given that courthouse
    employees have long been barred from partisan political
    activity, see U.S. Courts, Guide to Judiciary Policy, vol. 2, pt.
    9
    Available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-
    fix/wp/2017/04/30/doxxed-trump-donors-have-an-unlikely-
    defender-in-this-democratic-congressional-candidate/.
    10
    Available at https://www.fec.gov/data/.
    13
    A, ch. 3, § 320 (last revised Mar. 21, 2022), 11 making AO
    employees the sole Judiciary employees who can similarly, if
    not prohibited, dilute its apolitical essence. 12 Further, the AO
    as a body is involved in contentious debates related to the
    federal judicial system—including, but not limited to, new
    judgeships and judicial vacancies to be filled by the elected
    branches, 13 pro se litigation 14 and judicial ethics 15—that have
    11
    Available at https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/
    guide-vol02a-ch03.pdf.
    12
    On this point, I note that the restrictions at issue parallel those
    applicable to federal judicial employees located in courthouses—
    other than law clerks, who are barred from partisan and nonpartisan
    activity—restrictions that were drafted and approved by a committee
    of federal judges as well as the Judicial Conference, comprised of
    federal judges and presided over by the Chief Justice of the United
    States. See Duff Decl. ¶¶ 17–18, J.A. 140.
    13
    See John Gramlich, Federal judicial picks have become more
    contentious, and Trump’s are no exception, Pew Rsch. (Mar. 7,
    2018), https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/07/federal-
    judicial-picks-have-become-more-contentious-and-trumps-are-no-
    exception/ (explaining “rising discord in the federal judicial
    nominations process”); see also Tara Leigh Grove, Sacrificing
    Legitimacy in a Hierarchical Judiciary, 
    121 Colum. L. Rev. 1555
    ,
    1593–96 (2021) (explaining evolving partisan tensions characteristic
    of federal judicial nominations).
    14
    See Andrew Hammond, The Federal Rules of Pro Se
    Procedure, 
    90 Fordham L. Rev. 2689
    , 2700–02 (2022) (describing
    opposing public attitudes towards pro se litigation—seen as either
    essential to judicial system or frivolous waste of judicial resources—
    and Judicial Conference’s role in shaping relevant policies).
    15
    The AO points to the public scrutiny of a Judicial Conference
    proposal—with AO support—regarding federal judges’ membership
    in law-related organizations like the Federalist Society and American
    Constitution Society. See Appellant’s Br. 36; see also Editorial
    Board, Judicial Political Mischief, Wall St. J. (Jan. 21, 2020),
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/judicial-political-mischief-
    11579652574; cf. Charles G. Geyh, The Architecture of Judicial
    14
    political aspects and may invite partisan attacks, regardless of
    the AO’s perceived obscurity.
    B. Inter-Branch Interest
    Next, I believe the AO’s Inter-Branch Interest—that AO
    employees’ partisan political activities will negatively affect
    the Judiciary’s reputation with members of the Congress—is
    sufficiently grounded in reality.
    The AO’s evidence shows that the AO’s effectiveness as
    the Judiciary’s representative vis-à-vis the elected branches is
    inextricably linked to its reputation for nonpartisanship.
    Specifically, the AO provided affidavits from former
    congressional staffers attesting to the “reputation for non-
    partisanship and professionalism that the AO and its employees
    hav[e] built up among members [of Congress] and their staff.”
    Cooney Decl. ¶ 9, J.A. 164; see also Weich Decl. ¶ 11, J.A.
    176–77 (“In my experience, the AO and its personnel . . .
    advanced the Judiciary’s interests in a qualitatively different
    manner, without any political or policy agenda other than
    promoting the administration of justice in federal courts,
    protecting the Judiciary’s independence from the political
    branches, and upholding the rule of law.”). And these same
    affidavits submit that, if AO employees were perceived to be
    overtly partisan, the AO’s and Judiciary’s long-cultivated
    reputation for nonpartisanship would be jeopardized. See
    Cooney Decl. ¶ 10, J.A. 165 (“Were individual AO employees,
    or the AO generally, to be perceived as engaged in partisan
    political activity, I believe it could lead to increased
    congressional skepticism toward the positions of the AO and
    the Judicial Conference and possibly to reduced congressional
    willingness to advance legislation in the best interests of the
    Ethics, 169 U. Penn. L. Rev. 2351, 2353–55 (documenting public
    debates over judicial ethics).
    15
    federal judiciary, all to the detriment of the institution of the
    Judiciary.”); Weich Decl. ¶ 12, J.A. 177 (“It would have been
    difficult for members of Congress and their staffs, including
    me, to maintain the perception of the AO and its employees as
    non-partisan actors if AO employees were known to have
    publicly engaged in partisan political activity, even in their
    non-professional capacities.”). It is as likely that efforts by
    partisan-aligned individuals to tarnish the public perception of
    the AO and the Judiciary would similarly affect the perception
    of members of the Congress and its staff.
    Further, the harm resulting from a loss of congressional
    confidence may be more tangible than that resulting from a
    diminution of public confidence, as there is substantial and
    direct interaction between the AO and the Congress. The AO,
    like any federal agency, depends on the Congress for the
    latter’s approval of its budget and accordingly provides
    budgetary briefings to congressional members and their staff.
    See Duff Decl. ¶ 14(d), J.A. 138–39; Cooney Decl. ¶ 4, J.A.
    155–56. In addition, the AO regularly consults with and
    testifies before the Congress—sometimes at the Congress’s
    behest—on matters relating to the Judiciary, including
    proposed legislation on matters ranging from cameras in
    courtrooms to sentencing reform to new judgeships. See Duff
    Decl. ¶ 14(d), J.A. 138–39; see also Weich Decl. ¶ 9, J.A. 175;
    Cooney Decl. ¶¶ 6–7, J.A. 162–63. It is not implausible to fear,
    as the AO does, that members of the Congress and their staff,
    upon learning of AO employees’ partisan political activities,
    will question the neutrality of the AO and the policies it
    proposes. For example, the Congress may question whether the
    Judiciary’s requests for additional judgeships to address
    increasing caseloads are in fact intended to benefit the
    particular political party or candidate that would fill new
    16
    judgeships. 16 See Baugher Decl. ¶ 10, J.A. 158–59; see also
    Duff Decl. ¶ 25, J.A. 144 (observing political parties’ goals of
    “making Judicial appointments that advance the parties’
    partisan objectives”). Or legislators may move to delay or
    reduce the Judiciary’s budgetary requests in retaliation for
    perceived partisanship on the part of the AO in setting its policy
    priorities. See Baugher Decl. ¶ 10, J.A. 158–59. The
    effectiveness and efficiency of the AO both as advocate for the
    Judiciary and as neutral advisor to the Congress could be
    placed at significant risk if its internal administrative and
    policy aims were hindered by a distrustful relationship with the
    Congress resulting from AO employees’ overtly partisan
    political activities—and the examples discussed supra make
    this fear entirely plausible.
    C. Intra-Branch Interest
    Finally, as with the first two interests, I believe the AO’s
    Intra-Branch Interest—that partisan political activity risks
    adversely affecting individual judges’ perceptions of the AO as
    an impartial body—is sufficiently grounded to support the
    challenged restrictions.
    The AO serves as the Judiciary’s advisor, advocate and
    administrator, independent of the other branches. See Chandler
    v. Judicial Council of the Tenth Circuit of the U.S., 
    398 U.S. 74
    , 102 (1970) (Harlan, J., concurring) (describing AO as “an
    arm of the judicial branch of government and under the direct
    control of the Supreme Court and the Judicial Conference of
    the United States”). AO employees work closely with scores of
    16
    Much ink has been spilled to document the rising—and
    regrettable—politicization of the judicial nomination process,
    including inferior court nominees. See supra note 13; see generally
    Keith E. Whittington, Partisanship, Norms, and Federal Judicial
    Appointments, 16 Geo. J.L. & Pub. Pol’y 521 (2018).
    17
    individual federal judges, providing myriad services and
    support. AO employees provide policy-making support for the
    Judicial Conference—and its many committees, working
    groups and advisory councils comprised of federal judges—on
    subjects like court rules, probation and pretrial services,
    defender services, PACER access, judicial security and judicial
    salaries. See Duff Decl. ¶¶ 9–10, J.A. 132–34. They also draft
    proposed legislation, amendments to federal rules of procedure
    and budgetary proposals. Id. at ¶ 11, J.A. 134–36. They manage
    the mechanisms for filing judicial misconduct and disability
    complaints and update the codes of conduct applicable to
    federal judges, id. at ¶ 10–11 J.A. 133–36, and supervise and
    provide guidance regarding federal judges’ financial disclosure
    reports, id. at ¶¶ 9, 11, J.A. 132, 134–36. The Judicial
    Conference provides oversight of AO employees and can make
    hiring, promotion and assignment recommendations. Id. at
    ¶¶ 11, 13, J.A. 134, 137.
    This close working relationship on matters central to the
    functioning of the Judiciary underscores the necessity of trust.
    See Baugher Decl. ¶ 12, J.A. 160 (“As a longtime employee of
    the Judicial Branch, I know that the AO’s work with judges is
    built on the understanding and trust that AO employees are
    offering objective, unbiased advice and assistance to the
    judges.”). Loss of that trust stemming from concerns over an
    AO employee’s political activity risks weakening the core
    mission of the AO—to provide advice, support and
    recommendations to and on behalf of the Judiciary. It cannot
    benefit the Judiciary for judges to question, based on perceived
    political leanings, the AO employees who provide advice on
    judges’ attendance at seminars organized by outside
    organizations. See Duff Decl. ¶ 33, J.A. 149. Or question the
    neutrality of AO employees with roles in processing
    complaints of judicial misconduct. See id. at ¶ 134, J.A. 149.
    Or AO employees assigned to appear before the Congress on
    18
    policy matters approved by the Judicial Conference and/or its
    various committees comprised of federal judges. See id. at
    ¶ 135, J.A. 149–50.
    Further, I do not agree with my colleagues’ implication
    that we have to “assum[e] that judges will learn of AO
    employees’ private activity.” Majority Op. at 14. With the
    frequency with which AO employees and federal judges
    interact—together with the increasing reach of social media,
    where much political conduct occurs—it is not implausible that
    judges will learn of a particular AO employee’s partisan
    political activity. See Duff Decl. ¶¶ 28–30, J.A. 146–48.
    Assuming the AO could properly provide evidence
    reflecting the views of individual federal judges, as Guffey and
    Smith suggest, see Appellees’ Reply Br. 6, it cannot be faulted
    for declining to do so. I doubt that it is possible to gauge
    accurately the effect on the Intra-Branch Interest that
    implementation of the challenged provisions will have, short of
    perhaps polling substantial members of the federal judiciary, a
    proposal not only improbable but undoubtedly improper.
    Nevertheless, the assurance that federal judges have enjoyed
    for decades that partisanship is absent within the AO will
    undoubtedly be lost if the challenged restrictions are
    invalidated.
    III. Sweep of the Challenged Restrictions
    Finally, the “sweep” of the restrictions on protected
    activity must be “reasonably necessary to protect the efficiency
    of the public service.” Weaver, 
    87 F.3d at 1439
     (quoting NTEU,
    
    513 U.S. at 474
    ); see also Sanjour v. EPA, 
    56 F.3d 85
    , 95 (D.C.
    Cir. 1995) (en banc) (examining “fit between government’s
    purported interest and sweep of its restrictions” (internal
    quotation marks omitted)). I doubt my colleagues would
    dispute that even an employee’s routine political activities—
    19
    including campaign contributions and social media posts—can
    be leveraged to mount a partisan attack against his employer.
    See supra p. 9–10. Because I believe all of the outlawed
    activities under the revised Code of Conduct, if allowed, could
    threaten the Judiciary’s reputation, restricting all such activity
    is reasonably necessary to protect that reputation.
    I find the reasoning relied upon by the district court and
    offered by Guffey and Smith unpersuasive. First, the district
    court concluded that the AO failed to demonstrate that the Code
    of Conduct’s existing prohibition on using “position, title, or
    authority in connection with” partisan political activity,
    coupled with after-the-fact disciplinary proceedings, is
    insufficient to address threats to the Judiciary’s reputation.
    Guffey II, 459 F. Supp. 3d at 250–51. But that vague
    proscription does not specify prohibited conduct nor provide
    sufficient means of redress. As the AO points out, disciplinary
    proceedings would serve only to police “clearly inappropriate
    conduct” but ignore “normal partisan conduct,” like campaign
    contributions within legal limits or social media posts, both of
    which can have similarly deleterious effects on the perception
    of the Judiciary as an impartial, nonpolitical body. See
    Appellant’s Br. 56–57; Appellant’s Reply Br. 42–45. Further,
    as the AO notes, an ad hoc disciplinary investigation “may
    itself be cast as partisan.” Appellant’s Br. 57; see also Cooney
    Decl. ¶ 18, J.A. 170 (“[I]t is not unlikely that . . . a disciplinary
    proceeding itself could become politicized by members of
    Congress who agree with the employee’s partisan message and
    attempt to exploit the AO’s disciplinary action as evidence that
    the AO is itself promoting a particular partisan view.”).
    Second, the district court found the restrictions
    underinclusive because they do not resolve the potential
    consequences of an employee’s past partisan activity like pre-
    employment campaign contribution disclosures or social media
    20
    posts. Guffey II, 459 F. Supp. 3d at 251. But I fail to see how
    the AO could legitimately police employees’ pre-employment
    activity; further, it is well-settled that the AO “need not address
    all aspects of a problem in one fell swoop,” especially ones
    unrelated to its employees’ conduct while they are employed
    by it. Williams-Yulee, 575 U.S. at 449; see also Burson v.
    Freeman, 
    504 U.S. 191
    , 207 (1992) (“We do not, however,
    agree that the failure to regulate all speech renders the statute
    fatally underinclusive.”). And Guffey and Smith’s suggestion
    that the revised Code of Conduct is underinclusive in that it
    excludes political activity such as reading political books on
    the bus or publicly viewing a political film, see Appellees’ Br.
    53–54, is ludicrous on its face. 17
    ***
    In a city that is ground zero for political expression, it may
    be folly to attempt to restrict—let alone prohibit—
    it. Notwithstanding the Administrative Office’s location,
    however, the Constitution demands that the apolitical essence
    of the Judiciary and all members of its workforce—wherever
    sited—remain uncompromised.
    For the foregoing reasons, I respectfully dissent.
    17
    I find their over-inclusiveness, see 
    id.
     at 50–51, and Hatch
    Act, see 
    id.
     at 51–52, arguments equally meritless.