Coalition of MISO Transmission v. FERC ( 2022 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued February 7, 2022            Decided August 19, 2022
    No. 20-1421
    COALITION OF MISO TRANSMISSION CUSTOMERS, ET AL.,
    PETITIONERS
    v.
    FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION,
    RESPONDENT
    AMEREN SERVICES COMPANY, AS AGENT FOR UNION ELECTRIC
    COMPANY D/B/A AMEREN MISSOURI, AMEREN ILLINOIS
    COMPANY D/B/A AMEREN ILLINOIS, AND AMEREN
    TRANSMISSION COMPANY OF ILLINOIS, ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    On Petition for Review of Orders of the
    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
    Michael R. Engleman argued the cause for petitioners.
    With him on the briefs were Robert A. Weishaar, Jr., Kenneth
    R. Stark, Robert C. Fallon, and Christina Switzer.
    Matthew J. Glover, Attorney, Federal Energy Regulatory
    Commission, argued the cause for respondent. With him on
    the briefs were Matthew R. Christiansen, General Counsel,
    Robert H. Solomon, Solicitor, and Susanna Y. Chu, Attorney.
    2
    Christopher D. Supino argued the cause for non-
    governmental intervenors in support of respondent. With him
    on the joint brief were Ilia Levitine, Wendy N. Reed, and
    Matthew J. Binette.
    William D. Booth, Roxane E. Maywalt, Paul L.
    Zimmering, and Noel J. Darce were on the brief for state
    governmental intervenors in support of respondent.
    Before: ROGERS, MILLETT, and PILLARD, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge MILLETT.
    Opinion dissenting in part and concurring in part filed by
    Circuit Judge ROGERS.
    MILLETT, Circuit Judge: LS Power Midcontinent, LLC
    (“LS Power”) is a transmission developer seeking to build
    projects on the electrical grid overseen by the Midcontinent
    Independent System Operator, Inc. (“MISO”). LS Power and
    two organizations representing electricity consumers
    (collectively, “Petitioners”) challenge MISO’s method of
    allocating costs for a category of transmission construction
    projects called Baseline Reliability Projects. Under MISO’s
    approach, 100% of a project’s costs are allocated to the zone in
    which the project is physically located, regardless of whether
    other zones also would benefit from the project. Importantly,
    this cost-allocation decision means that Baseline Reliability
    Projects are not subject to competitive bidding. Instead, MISO
    assigns construction of the project to the transmission
    developer owning the portion of the grid where the project sits.
    Those incumbent transmission developers prefer this approach
    because they can make a profit on the construction project. See
    MISO Transmission Owners v. FERC, 
    819 F.3d 329
    , 333 (7th
    Cir. 2016).
    3
    The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission originally
    approved this cost-allocation regime in 2013, and, in 2016, the
    United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit rejected
    a challenge to the Commission’s decision. MISO Transmission
    Owners, 819 F.3d at 335–336.
    Petitioners argue that new evidence acquired over the
    intervening years shows that MISO’s cost-allocation method
    for Baseline Reliability Projects is unjust and unreasonable and
    impermissibly favors incumbent transmission owners over
    would-be competitors.        The Commission contends that
    Petitioners lack standing to challenge its orders and, in any
    event, Petitioners’ new evidence fails to undermine the
    Commission’s previous conclusions.
    As a threshold matter, we hold that LS Power has standing
    to challenge the Commission’s decision because it has shown
    that it is “ready, willing and able” to compete for Baseline
    Reliability Projects if allowed, yet the existing cost-allocation
    regime categorically deprives LS Power of the opportunity to
    do so. LSP Transmission Holdings II, LLC v. FERC (LSP 2022
    II), No. 20-1465, slip op. at 13 (D.C. Cir. Aug. 19, 2022)
    (citation omitted).
    On the merits, though, we agree with the Commission that
    Petitioners’ new evidence—which was limited to a relatively
    small number of Baseline Reliability Projects—did not
    necessitate a categorical finding that location-based cost
    allocation is unjust and unreasonable for all Baseline
    Reliability Projects.      Petitioners’ remaining objections
    regarding MISO’s compliance with other regional cost-sharing
    requirements and the Commission’s obligation to respond to
    arguments on rehearing are likewise unavailing. As a result,
    we deny the petition for review.
    4
    I
    A
    The Federal Power Act requires the Commission to ensure
    that “[a]ll rates and charges made, demanded, or received by
    any public utility for or in connection with the transmission or
    sale of electric energy” in interstate commerce are “just and
    reasonable[.]” 16 U.S.C. § 824d(a). Under Section 206 of the
    Act, the Commission may investigate—either on its own
    initiative or in response to a third-party complaint—whether a
    rate contained in a transmission operator’s existing tariff
    remains just and reasonable. Id. § 824e(a); see Public Serv.
    Elec. & Gas Co. v. FERC, 
    989 F.3d 10
    , 13 (D.C. Cir. 2021).
    The proponent of the rate change bears the burden of showing
    that the existing rate is unjust or unreasonable. 16 U.S.C.
    § 824e(b). If the proponent does so, then the existing rate is
    unlawful, and the Commission “must establish a just and
    reasonable replacement rate.” Public Serv. Elec. & Gas Co.,
    989 F.3d at 13 (citing 16 U.S.C. § 824e(a)).
    The Commission and the courts “have added flesh to [the]
    bare statutory bones” of the just-and-reasonable requirement
    by “establishing what has become known in Commission
    parlance as the ‘cost-causation’ principle.” K N Energy, Inc. v.
    FERC, 
    968 F.2d 1295
    , 1300 (D.C. Cir. 1992); see Old
    Dominion Elec. Coop. v. FERC, 
    898 F.3d 1254
    , 1255–1256
    (D.C. Cir. 2018). The cost-causation principle requires that
    “[t]he cost of transmission facilities * * * be allocated to those
    within the transmission planning region that benefit from those
    facilities in a manner that is at least roughly commensurate with
    estimated benefits.” South Carolina Pub. Serv. Auth. v. FERC,
    
    762 F.3d 41
    , 53 (D.C. Cir. 2014) (per curiam) (citation
    omitted). Said more simply, “the burden on ratepayers of
    paying for a project should be matched with its benefit to
    5
    them.” LSP 2022 II, No. 20-1465, slip op. at 3 (formatting
    modified and citation omitted); see Midwest ISO Transmission
    Owners v. FERC, 
    373 F.3d 1361
    , 1368 (D.C. Cir. 2004)
    (Roberts, J.) (explaining that compliance with the cost-
    causation principle is determined by “comparing the costs
    assessed against a party to the burdens imposed or benefits
    drawn by that party”).
    B
    1
    In 2011, in anticipation of a “[s]ignificant expansion of the
    transmission grid[,]” South Carolina Pub. Serv. Auth., 762 F.3d
    at 51 (citation omitted), the Commission issued Order No.
    1000, which required every grid operator to establish a
    “regional transmission plan” to identify “what new facilities
    would best meet regional needs for electricity[,]” Old
    Dominion, 898 F.3d at 1256; see Transmission Planning &
    Cost Allocation by Transmission Owning & Operating Public
    Utilities, 
    76 Fed. Reg. 49,842
     (Aug. 11, 2011) (“Order No.
    1000”).
    Under Order No. 1000, a grid operator must specify up
    front the cost-allocation methods it will use for facilities
    included in its regional plan, and those methods must adhere to
    the cost-causation principle. Order No. 1000, 76 Fed. Reg. at
    49,929 ¶ 558, 49,932 ¶ 586; see South Carolina Pub. Serv.
    Auth., 762 F.3d at 53, 83. Transmission providers are
    permitted to select different cost-allocation methods for
    different types of transmission facilities, such as those designed
    to address reliability concerns, to relieve congestion on the
    grid, or to achieve public policy goals. Order No. 1000, 76 Fed.
    Reg. at 49,944–49,945 ¶ 685. But Order No. 1000 makes clear
    that providers cannot fully close off any one type of
    transmission facility from regional cost-allocation. Id. at
    6
    49,945 ¶ 690. For example, some facilities designed to ensure
    grid reliability can have their costs allocated locally as long as
    the costs of other reliability projects are allocated regionally.
    See MISO Transmission Owners, 819 F.3d at 335.
    Order No. 1000 also addressed rights of first refusal, which
    incumbent developers that already own parts of the grid often
    included in tariffs and agreements to ensure they would have
    the “first crack at constructing” transmission projects within
    their retail distribution territories, and thereby keep competitors
    at bay. MISO Transmission Owners, 819 F.3d at 331; see South
    Carolina Pub. Serv. Auth., 762 F.3d at 72. Concerned about
    the anti-competitive effect of such provisions, the Commission
    directed transmission owners to remove from their tariffs and
    agreements any provision creating a federal right of first refusal
    over the construction of a new facility included in a regional
    transmission plan. Order No. 1000, 76 Fed. Reg. at 49,895–
    49,896 ¶ 313. But incumbent transmission owners are
    permitted to retain federal rights of first refusal over non-
    regional, purely “local transmission facilities[,]” which (1) are
    located wholly within the incumbent’s service territory, and (2)
    have their costs allocated entirely to the zone in which they are
    located. South Carolina Pub. Serv. Auth., 762 F.3d at 73
    (formatting modified) (quoting Order No. 1000, 76 Fed. Reg.
    at 49,854 ¶ 63, 49,886 ¶ 258).1
    2
    MISO is the entity that operates, but does not own, the
    electrical transmission facilities in fifteen primarily
    1
    Federal rights of first refusal are exclusive rights to build
    contained in tariffs and agreements approved by the Commission.
    State and local law may also provide rights of first refusal, which
    Order No. 1000 does not affect. See MISO Transmission Owners,
    819 F.3d at 336.
    7
    midwestern states and one Canadian province. See Ameren
    Servs. Co. v. FERC, 
    880 F.3d 571
    , 572 n.1 (D.C. Cir. 2018).
    MISO divides its territorial footprint into 24 “pricing zones[,]”
    with each zone roughly corresponding to the transmission
    facilities owned by a particular electric utility. Illinois Com.
    Comm’n v. FERC, 
    721 F.3d 764
    , 773 (7th Cir. 2013); Dynegy
    Midwest Generation, Inc. v. FERC, 
    633 F.3d 1122
    , 1125 (D.C.
    Cir. 2011). In its annual MISO Transmission Expansion Plan,
    MISO lists the new transmission facilities that it has approved
    and anticipates adding to the grid in the upcoming year.
    MISO organizes its transmission facilities into different
    categories, each with its own purposes, requirements, and cost-
    allocation methods.        The Baseline Reliability Projects
    category, which is at issue here, encompasses “projects the sole
    purpose of which is to solve problems of reliability in electrical
    transmission.” MISO Transmission Owners, 819 F.3d at 335.
    More specifically, Baseline Reliability Projects are network
    upgrades needed to ensure that the transmission system
    complies with national, regional, and local reliability standards.
    See Midwest Indep. Transmission Sys. Operator, Inc., 
    114 FERC ¶ 61106
    , ¶ 26 & n.23 (2006).
    Other MISO project categories include “Multi-Value
    Projects” and “Market Efficiency Projects.” Multi-Value
    Projects are large, expensive, high-voltage projects that “help
    MISO members meet state renewable energy requirements, fix
    reliability problems, or provide economic benefits in multiple
    pricing zones.” Illinois Com. Comm’n, 721 F.3d at 774.
    Market Efficiency Projects are upgrades to the transmission
    system that satisfy a certain benefit-to-cost ratio, cost at least
    $5 million, and surpass a threshold voltage level. LSP 2022 II,
    No. 20-1465, slip op. at 5.
    8
    C
    In 2012, MISO submitted a proposal to the Commission to
    change its cost-allocation method for Baseline Reliability
    Projects. Up to that point, MISO had primarily allocated the
    costs of such projects using the “line outage distribution factor”
    method (“line-outage analysis”).           Line-outage analysis
    attempts to quantify the benefits that one transmission zone
    reaps from the construction of a new facility in another zone by
    calculating electricity flows on the relevant transmission lines
    with and without the new facility. MISO would then allocate
    costs among pricing zones proportionally to the distribution of
    benefits. So, to use a simplified example, if the transmission
    zone in which the facility is located (the “local zone”) receives
    60% of the benefits as measured by electrical flow, and the
    zone next door receives 40% of the benefits, then 60% of the
    costs would be allocated to the local zone and 40% would be
    allocated to the neighboring zone.
    In its 2012 filing, MISO proposed abandoning line-outage
    analysis for Baseline Reliability Projects and simply assigning
    100% of the costs of all such projects to the local zone.
    Experience had shown that “the primary benefits of Baseline
    Reliability Projects are realized at the local level[,]” MISO
    claimed, reporting that since 2006, 80% of Baseline Reliability
    Projects had at least 75% of their costs allocated to the local
    zone, and over 50% of such projects had more than 90% of
    their costs allocated to the local zone. Midwest Indep.
    Transmission Sys. Operator, Inc., 
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , ¶¶ 486–
    487 (2013) (“2013 Order”). Crucially, if accepted, MISO’s
    proposal would allow incumbent transmission owners to retain
    their federal rights of first refusal over construction of all
    Baseline Reliability Projects, since they would qualify as
    purely local transmission facilities. So no Baseline Reliability
    9
    Projects would be open to competitive bidding under MISO’s
    new regime.
    LS Power, a subsidiary of LSP Transmission Holdings II,
    LLC, and other non-incumbent transmission developers
    opposed MISO’s proposal, arguing that it represented “an
    attempt by MISO to exclude the majority of reliability projects
    from the requirements of Order No. 1000[,]” including the
    requirement that projects with regional benefits and subject to
    regional cost-sharing be subject to competitive bidding. 2013
    Order, 
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , at ¶ 495.
    The Commission accepted MISO’s proposal, concluding
    that location-based cost allocation for Baseline Reliability
    Projects is “just and reasonable” and consistent with the cost-
    causation principle. 2013 Order, 
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , at
    ¶¶ 518, 520–521. The Commission found “convincing support
    for [MISO’s] claim that the pricing zone in which a Baseline
    Reliability Project is located receives most of the benefits
    provided by that project[,]” so that “assigning all of the
    associated costs to that pricing zone results in an allocation of
    costs that is roughly commensurate to the distribution of the
    project’s benefits.” Id. at ¶ 521.
    The Commission also concluded that MISO’s change in
    cost allocation for Baseline Reliability Projects would not run
    afoul of Order No. 1000’s rule that regional cost allocation be
    available in some form for every type of transmission facility,
    including those with reliability benefits. See 2013 Order, 
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , at ¶ 519. The Commission noted that Multi-
    Value Projects, which also produce reliability benefits,
    continue to have their costs allocated regionally. See 
    id.
     And
    the Commission found “persuasive MISO’s contention that,
    going forward, its [Market Efficiency] and [Multi-Value]
    10
    project categories [would] displace Baseline Reliability
    Projects” in satisfying regional transmission needs. 
    Id.
    After the Commission denied rehearing, LS Power
    petitioned the Seventh Circuit for review. See MISO
    Transmission Owners, 819 F.3d at 331. The Seventh Circuit
    acknowledged that location-based cost allocation for Baseline
    Reliability Projects “would be problematic * * * if the benefits
    of [such a project] were largely or entirely realized in pricing
    zones other than the one in which the project was to be built.”
    Id. at 336. But based on the Commission’s calculations, the
    court concluded that “the spillover of [Baseline Reliability
    Project] benefits to other zones” was “modest enough to make
    the local allocation of costs ‘roughly commensurate’ with the
    allocation of benefits[,]” and so rejected LS Power’s challenge.
    Id. (citation omitted).
    After the Seventh Circuit’s decision, MISO submitted
    required informational filings to the Commission that detailed
    the number of Multi-Value, Market Efficiency, and Baseline
    Reliability Projects approved in 2014 and 2015, as well as a
    line-outage analysis of the Baseline Reliability Projects
    approved in 2014 and 2015. See 2013 Order, 
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , at ¶ 519. In those filings, MISO reported that 49
    Baseline Reliability Projects were approved in 2014 and 2015
    that would have previously been eligible for cost-sharing and
    competitive bidding. Of those 49, applying line-outage
    analysis, 46 would have had at least 75% of their costs
    allocated to the local zone, and 45 would have had at least 90%
    of their costs allocated to the local zone. As for the other
    categories, no Market Efficiency Projects were approved in
    2014 and only one was approved in 2015. No Multi-Value
    Projects were approved in either year.
    11
    D
    1
    In January 2020, LS Power, joined by the Coalition of
    MISO Transmission Customers and Industrial Energy
    Consumers of America, filed a Section 206 complaint with the
    Commission. They again challenged MISO’s use of location-
    based cost allocation for Baseline Reliability Projects, and
    asked the Commission to reimpose the old line-outage-based
    system. Petitioners argued that new “[e]vidence based on
    actual experience in the nearly seven years since the
    Commission allowed a change in the cost allocation for
    Baseline Reliability Projects” showed that allocating project
    costs exclusively based on physical location is unjust and
    unreasonable. Coalition of MISO Transmission Customers,
    Complaint of Coalition of MISO Transmission Customers et
    al. at 24, EL20-19-000 (Jan. 21, 2020) (“Complaint”) (Joint
    Appendix (“J.A.”) 42).
    The crown jewel of Petitioners’ new evidence was the so-
    called “Pterra Report.” That report contained a line-outage
    analysis of 29 Baseline Reliability Projects approved by MISO
    between 2013 and 2018. Of those 29, the report identified
    twelve for which line-outage analysis showed that “zones other
    than the zone where the Baseline Reliability Project is
    physically located received more than de minimis benefits from
    the project.” Complaint at 26 (J.A. 44). In particular, for these
    twelve Baseline Reliability Projects, zones other than the local
    zone received 38%, 36%, 100%, 30%, 31%, 61%, 69%, 57%,
    58%, 64%, 28%, and 43% of the project benefits as measured
    by line-outage analysis.
    Petitioners also pointed to MISO’s own informational
    filings showing that only one Market Efficiency Project and
    zero Multi-Value Projects were approved in 2014 and 2015.
    12
    Data from subsequent years told a similar story. Between 2016
    and 2019, only two Market Efficiency Projects and zero Multi-
    Value Projects were approved, all while hundreds of Baseline
    Reliability Projects were greenlit. Based on these numbers,
    Petitioners argued that a key premise underlying the
    Commission’s 2013 Order had been undermined—namely, the
    prediction that the Market Efficiency and Multi-Value Project
    categories that are open to competitive bidding would displace
    the Baseline Reliability Project category for projects with
    regional benefits.
    In response, MISO argued that Petitioners were launching
    an impermissible collateral attack on the 2013 Order, and that
    they had not shown any new or changed circumstances calling
    into question the Commission’s prior conclusion that location-
    based cost allocation for Baseline Reliability Projects is just
    and reasonable. Additionally, MISO attacked the credibility of
    the Pterra Report, asserting that it relied on a narrow and
    unrepresentative sample of projects, was characterized by
    numerous errors, and relied on a methodology that was
    inherently flawed because line-outage analysis “is a measure of
    impacts rather than benefits.” Coalition of MISO Transmission
    Customers, Answer of the Midcontinent Independent System
    Operator, Inc. at 23, WL20-19-000 (May 1, 2020) (“Answer”)
    (J.A. 283). Even accepting the Pterra Report’s validity, MISO
    countered that “the fact that, in some circumstances, some
    [Baseline Reliability Projects] may provide some alleged
    benefits beyond the pricing zone in which they are located does
    not indicate that the underlying cost allocation methodology”
    violates cost-causation principles. Id. at 27 (J.A. 287). Rather,
    MISO insisted, Baseline Reliability Projects are
    quintessentially local projects designed to address reliability
    problems that are “highly localized” and “specific to individual
    transmission facilities[,]” justifying local cost allocation. Id. at
    35 (J.A. 295).
    13
    With respect to the miniscule number of Market Efficiency
    and Multi-Value Projects authorized, MISO responded that
    Petitioners “ignore[d] a number of important developments” in
    MISO and the industry generally. Answer at 5 (J.A. 265). For
    instance, MISO attributed the non-existence of new Multi-
    Value Projects between 2014 and 2019 to the fact that a large
    portfolio of seventeen Multi-Value Projects had been approved
    in 2010 and 2011, obviating the need for projects of that type
    in the following years. MISO also argued that “[d]eclining
    natural gas prices and resource portfolio evolution from largely
    coal to natural gas and renewables” had made it difficult to
    “cost-justify” additional Market Efficiency Projects. Id. at 25
    (J.A. 285). But it assured the Commission that it was working
    to relax the minimum voltage threshold for Market Efficiency
    Projects, which would theoretically increase the number of
    such projects.2
    2
    In July 2020, the Commission denied Petitioners’
    complaint, holding that they had “not met their burden under
    [S]ection 206 of the [Federal Power Act] to demonstrate that
    the current [Baseline Reliability Project] cost allocation
    method is unjust [or] unreasonable[.]” Coalition of MISO
    Transmission Customers, 
    172 FERC ¶ 61099
    , ¶ 81 (2020)
    (“Order Denying Complaint”) (J.A. 527). In the Commission’s
    view, the evidence and arguments advanced by Petitioners did
    not undermine the Commission’s 2013 finding that “the
    [transmission] pricing zone in which a [Baseline Reliability
    Project] is located receives most of the benefits provided by
    2
    MISO’s change to the voltage threshold for Market Efficiency
    Projects is at issue in a related case argued on the same day as this
    one: LSP Transmission Holdings II, LLC v. FERC, No. 20-1465
    (D.C. Cir. Aug. 19, 2022).
    14
    that project[.]” 
    Id.
     (first alteration in original) (quoting 2013
    Order, 
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , at ¶ 521) (J.A. 527–528). Nor did
    it contradict the Seventh Circuit’s finding that the “spillover of
    benefits to other zones is modest enough to make the local
    allocation of costs ‘roughly commensurate’ with the allocation
    of benefits[,]” for purposes of the cost-causation principle. 
    Id.
    (quoting MISO Transmission Owners, 819 F.3d at 336) (J.A.
    528).
    The Commission gave little weight to the Pterra Report,
    concluding that “the value and meaning of the findings in the
    Pterra Report are mixed[,]” and that “the sample of projects
    analyzed in the * * * Report is highly selective.” Order
    Denying Complaint ¶ 87 (J.A. 531). The Commission also
    credited MISO with having made “compelling arguments that
    * * * the Pterra Report may contain significant errors.” Id.
    Turning to MISO’s informational filings, the Commission
    found that the data they contained did “not contradict the
    information that the Commission relied upon” when it
    approved location-based cost allocation in 2013. Order
    Denying Complaint ¶ 88 (J.A. 531). It pointed to statistics
    showing that, under line-outage analysis, 80% of the Baseline
    Reliability Projects approved in 2014 and 2015 would have had
    100% of their costs allocated to the local pricing zone and more
    than 90% of such projects eligible for cost-sharing would have
    had at least 90% of their costs allocated to the local zone.
    While acknowledging that “MISO’s predictions on the
    development of Multi-Value Projects and Market Efficiency
    Projects [had] not to date materialized,” and that those
    predictions were a “key factor” in the 2013 decision, the
    Commission agreed with MISO that “there is potential for
    expanded Market Efficiency Project opportunities in the
    future[,]” citing MISO’s efforts to lower the voltage threshold
    15
    for Market Efficiency Projects. Order Denying Complaint ¶ 89
    & n.254 (J.A. 532 & n.254).
    3
    Petitioners sought rehearing. After 30 days had passed,
    the Commission issued a one-page order deeming the request
    denied by operation of law. Coalition of MISO Transmission
    Customers, 
    172 FERC ¶ 62179
     (2020) (citing 16 U.S.C.
    § 825l(a); Allegheny Def. Project v. FERC, 
    964 F.3d 1
     (D.C.
    Cir. 2020) (en banc)) (J.A. 586).
    Petitioners then filed for review in this court. MISO and a
    number of incumbent transmission owners operating in MISO,
    as well as several state governmental entities, intervened in
    support of the Commission’s decision.
    II
    Under 16 U.S.C. § 825l, this court has statutory
    jurisdiction to review petitions challenging a final order of the
    Commission. The Commission asserts that we nonetheless
    lack Article III jurisdiction because Petitioners have failed to
    establish the injury-in-fact requirement of standing. The
    Commission pressed a similar argument in LSP 2022 II, which
    was rejected by this court. See No. 20-1465, slip op. at 13–16.
    For much the same reasons, we hold that one of the Petitioners
    in this case, LS Power, has sufficiently demonstrated standing.
    LS Power is an independent transmission developer that
    endeavors to compete for electrical utility construction
    projects, including Baseline Reliability Projects, within MISO.
    It has been certified as a MISO “Qualified Transmission
    Developer[,]” meaning it has submitted “considerable
    documentation” demonstrating its capability and experience in
    transmission project development. Petitioners Reply Br. 9.
    16
    As this court ruled in LSP 2022 II, to establish the type of
    injury that Article III requires for standing in this context, LS
    Power need only show that (1) it “was ready, willing and able
    to perform” the construction contracts for which it wished to
    compete, and (2) the challenged action “deprived the company
    of the opportunity to compete for the work.” No. 20-1465, slip
    op. at 13 (internal quotation marks omitted) (quoting LSP
    Transmission Holdings II, LLC v. FERC (LSP 2022 I), 
    28 F.4th 1285
    , 1288–1289 (D.C. Cir. 2022)). LS Power has met both
    requirements.3
    First, LS Power has made clear that it is “ready, willing
    and able” to compete for Baseline Reliability Projects. LSP
    2022 II, No. 20-1465, slip op. at 13 (citation omitted). It is
    undisputed that LS Power is an active transmission
    development company “that is qualified to participate in
    MISO’s Order [No.] 1000 competitive transmission process.”
    Petitioners Opening Br. 27. There is also good reason to think
    that LS Power would actually compete for transmission
    projects within MISO if given the opportunity to do so. In one
    of only two competitive solicitations that MISO has held since
    Order No. 1000 issued, an LS Power affiliate won the contract.
    3 The separate opinion’s concerns are well taken as we all agree
    “that a bare assertion that a petitioner is ‘ready, willing, and able’ to
    compete is [not] sufficient to establish Article III injury-in-fact.” Op.
    of Rogers, J. at 3; see also id. at 5. Instead, a petitioner must also
    show that agency action has “deprived [it] of the opportunity to
    compete for the work.” LSP 2022 I, 28 F.4th at 1289 (internal
    quotation marks and citation omitted). And it must substantiate its
    standing by pointing to record evidence or submitting new evidence.
    Sierra Club v. EPA, 
    292 F.3d 895
    , 899–900 (D.C. Cir. 2002). As we
    explain below, LS Power has done just that by showing both that it
    has competed for the rare project open to it, and that the challenged
    rule now categorically excludes it from competing for all Baseline
    Reliability Projects going forward.
    17
    See Petitioners Opening Br. 27–28; see also Petitioners Reply
    Br. 10; LSP 2022 I, 28 F.4th at 1289 (“[LS Power]
    demonstrated its readiness when its subsidiary bid on the only
    one of thirty-one recent reliability projects open to competitive
    bidding.”).
    Second, LS Power has shown that the Commission’s
    decision to allow MISO to retain location-based cost allocation
    for Baseline Reliability Projects has “deprived the company of
    the opportunity to compete for the work.” LSP 2022 II, No.
    20-1465, slip op. at 13 (internal quotation marks and citation
    omitted). LS Power explains that “[b]ecause all Baseline
    Reliability Projects are subject to a local cost allocation
    requirement, * * * LS Power has been prohibited from
    competing for any of the more than 500 Baseline Reliability
    Projects approved since the cost allocation change and will
    continue to be excluded” under MISO’s current regime.
    Petitioners Opening Br. 27. As a result, LS Power alleges,
    MISO’s “inaccurate cost allocation scheme for Baseline
    Reliability Projects has the direct and intended effect of
    prohibiting competition for all Baseline Reliability Projects[,]
    foreclosing opportunities for LS Power.” Petitioners Reply Br.
    9 (formatting modified) (citing Complaint at 20 (J.A. 38)); cf.
    Northeastern Fla. Chapter of the Associated Gen. Contractors
    of America v. City of Jacksonville, 
    508 U.S. 656
    , 668 (1993)
    (finding standing based on petitioner’s allegations “that its
    members regularly bid on construction contracts in
    Jacksonville, and that they would have bid on contracts set
    aside pursuant to the city’s ordinance were they so able”).
    The Commission relies on this court’s unpublished
    judgment in LSP Transmission Holdings, LLC v. FERC (LSP
    2017), 700 F. App’x 1 (D.C. Cir. 2017) (per curiam), to argue
    that LS Power’s alleged injury is impermissibly speculative
    because LS Power has failed to identify a specific project on
    18
    which it would bid. That decision “has no bearing on this
    case.” LSP 2022 I, 28 F.4th at 1289; see LSP 2022 II, No. 20-
    1465, slip op. at 14–15. LS Power need not point to one
    specific project it has been deprived of the opportunity to
    compete for because there can “be no doubting [LS Power’s]
    assertion that it has been denied the ability to bid” on all
    Baseline Reliability Projects, full stop. LSP 2022 I, 28 F.4th at
    1289; see LSP 2022 II, No. 20-1465, slip op. at 15. In other
    words, LS Power has shown that it has been walled off from an
    entire category of projects for which it is qualified, prepared,
    and eager to compete.
    In any event, LS Power has pointed to specific Baseline
    Reliability Projects it alleges would have been open to bidding
    but for the local allocation of costs. LS Power pinpointed
    twelve Baseline Reliability Projects in the Pterra Report that it
    claims have significant regional benefits and should have been
    competitively bid. See Petitioner Opening Br. 12; see also
    Complaint at 26–29 (J.A. 44–47). In its complaint, LS Power
    also identified 113 Baseline Reliability Projects included in the
    then-upcoming 2019 MISO Transmission Expansion Plan that
    it alleged were highly likely to have regional benefits. See
    Complaint at 47 (J.A. 65). And those are the very projects for
    which LS Power says it desires to compete. See Petitioners
    Opening Br. 27–28.
    So like in LSP 2022 I and LSP 2022 II, LS Power has
    demonstrated a concrete injury that is caused by the
    Commission’s continued approval of MISO’s cost-allocation
    system, and that would be remedied by an order of this court
    overturning the Commission’s decision.4
    4
    As was true in LSP 2022 II, we need not and do not rely on
    the supplemental briefing and affidavits in concluding that LS Power
    19
    III
    A
    We review Commission orders under the familiar arbitrary
    and capricious standard, see ESI Energy, LLC v. FERC, 
    892 F.3d 321
    , 329 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (citing 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)), and
    regard the Commission’s factual findings as conclusive as long
    as they are supported by substantial evidence, 16 U.S.C.
    § 825l(b). Arbitrary and capricious review is “narrow”—we
    are “not to ask whether a regulatory decision is the best one
    possible or even whether it is better than the alternatives.”
    FERC v. Electric Power Supply Ass’n, 
    577 U.S. 260
    , 292
    (2016) (quoting Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n of U.S., Inc. v. State
    Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983)). Rather, we
    must uphold the agency’s decision as long as it has
    “examine[d] the relevant data and articulate[d] a satisfactory
    explanation for its action.” State Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
    . And
    we defer to the Commission’s “predictive judgments about
    areas that are within [its] field of discretion and expertise * * *,
    as long as they are reasonable.” Wisconsin Pub. Power, Inc. v.
    has established standing, although we agree with the concurring
    opinion that they soundly establish standing in this case. See No. 20-
    1465, slip op. at 16 n.3. Likewise, because LS Power has standing
    to raise each of Petitioners’ claims, we need not address whether
    organizational petitioners Coalition of MISO Transmission
    Customers and Industrial Energy Consumers of America have
    established standing in their own right. See Food & Water Watch v.
    FERC, 
    28 F.4th 277
    , 284 (D.C. Cir. 2022) (“[W]hen multiple
    petitioners bring claims jointly, only one petitioner needs standing to
    raise each claim.”) (citation omitted).
    20
    FERC, 
    493 F.3d 239
    , 260 (D.C. Cir. 2007) (per curiam)
    (citation omitted).
    “The statutory requirement that rates be ‘just and
    reasonable’ is obviously incapable of precise judicial
    definition,” affording the Commission leeway in its ratemaking
    decisions, Morgan Stanley Cap. Group Inc. v. Public Util. Dist.
    No. 1, 
    554 U.S. 527
    , 532 (2008), especially when, as here, the
    matters at issue are “either fairly technical or involve policy
    judgments that lie at the core of the [Commission’s] regulatory
    mission[,]” South Carolina Pub. Serv. Auth., 762 F.3d at 54–
    55 (internal quotation marks and citation omitted).
    In enforcing the cost-causation principle, “we have never
    required a ratemaking agency to allocate costs with exacting
    precision.” Midwest ISO, 
    373 F.3d at 1369
    . In other words,
    the Commission “is not bound to reject any rate mechanism
    that tracks the cost-causation principle less than perfectly[.]”
    Sithe/Independence Power Partners, L.P. v. FERC, 
    285 F.3d 1
    ,
    5 (D.C. Cir. 2002). “It is enough, given the standard of review
    * * *, that the cost allocation mechanism not be ‘arbitrary or
    capricious’ in light of the burdens imposed or benefits
    received.” Midwest ISO, 
    373 F.3d at 1369
    .
    B
    To Petitioners’ credit, they have demonstrated a
    significant mismatch between costs and benefits for at least
    some of the projects identified in the Pterra Report. But the
    Petitioners’ argument has some mismatch of its own. Their
    new evidence is of limited scope, exposing a cost-causation
    problem for, at most, twelve out of approximately 400 projects.
    And yet the relief they seek is expansive—they argue that
    location-based cost allocation is no longer just and reasonable
    for the entire category of Baseline Reliability Projects. Given
    that imbalance, it was not arbitrary or capricious for the
    21
    Commission to deny Petitioners’ complaint and retain the
    current cost-allocation regime for Baseline Reliability
    Projects.5
    1
    The Commission gave location-based cost allocation its
    stamp of approval in 2013 based on its determination that “the
    pricing zone in which a Baseline Reliability Project is located
    receives most of the benefits provided by that project[.]” 2013
    Order, 
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , at ¶ 521. The Seventh Circuit, in
    affirming the Commission’s decision, agreed that “the
    spillover of [Baseline Reliability Project] benefits” to zones
    other than the local zone “is modest enough” not to run afoul
    of the cost-causation principle. MISO Transmission, 819 F.3d
    at 336.
    Petitioners have upended those determinations—at least
    for a small subset of Baseline Reliability Projects. Recall that
    in the Pterra Report, Petitioners identified twelve Baseline
    Reliability Projects for which zones other than the local zone
    received 38%, 36%, 100%, 30%, 31%, 61%, 69%, 57%, 58%,
    64%, 28%, and 43% of the project benefits as measured by line-
    outage analysis. These percentage spillovers can hardly be
    5
    As a threshold matter, the Commission asserts that Petitioners
    are levying an impermissible collateral attack on the Commission’s
    2013 Order that originally approved location-based cost allocation
    for Baseline Reliability Projects. The Commission is wrong.
    Petitioners’ relevant arguments are based on new evidence derived
    from actual experience since 2013, placing them outside the rule
    barring collateral attacks on previous orders. See Blumenthal v.
    FERC, 
    552 F.3d 875
    , 881 n.2 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (finding no improper
    collateral attack where petition relied on “factual developments” that
    were “unanticipated” at the time of the original orders).
    22
    characterized as “modest[.]” MISO Transmission, 819 F.3d at
    336. In fact, Petitioners calculated that, taken together, these
    projects represented over $275 million in misallocated costs.
    One might quibble over whether a spillover in the 30% range
    is significant, but the local zone certainly does not receive
    “most of the benefits[,]” 2013 Order, 
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , at
    ¶ 521, provided by a project if over 50% of its benefits flow to
    other zones, which is exactly the case for six projects identified
    in the Pterra Report. If Zone A is paying 100% of a project’s
    costs, but Zone B is receiving 58%, 64%, or even 69% of the
    benefits, then costs are not being allocated in a manner that is
    “at least roughly commensurate” with benefits, as the cost-
    causation principle mandates. South Carolina Pub. Serv.
    Auth., 762 F.3d at 53 (citation omitted).
    In Old Dominion, this court characterized benefit
    spillovers of 53% and 57% as representing a “severe
    misallocation of * * * costs[.]” 898 F.3d at 1261. That degree
    of misalignment between costs incurred and benefits received
    did “not amount to a quibble about ‘exacting precision,’” but
    rather “a wholesale departure from the cost-causation
    principle[.]” Id. (quoting Midwest ISO, 
    373 F.3d at 1369
    ).
    Given that several of the projects highlighted in the Pterra
    Report are plagued by percentage spillovers exceeding those at
    issue in Old Dominion, location-based cost allocation is
    inconsistent with the cost-causation principle at least for those
    projects.
    The Commission did not wholly disregard the Pterra
    Report. But it accorded the Report scant weight, concluding
    “that the value and meaning of the findings in the * * * Report
    are mixed.” Order Denying Complaint ¶ 87 (J.A. 531). For
    one thing, the Commission criticized the Report for using a
    small and “highly selective” sample of projects, consisting of
    23
    just 29 out of at least 400 Baseline Reliability Projects from the
    relevant period. 
    Id.
     ¶ 87 & n.248 (J.A. 531 & n.248).
    That may be true. It is also beside the point. Petitioners
    never claimed to be presenting a representative sample of
    Baseline Reliability Projects in the Pterra Report. Their claim
    was merely that costs and benefits were significantly
    misaligned for all twelve of the specific projects they had
    identified, and that those twelve bad apples were enough to
    spoil the whole methodology.
    The Commission also noted that MISO made “compelling
    arguments” that the Report “may” have “significant errors.”
    Order Denying Complaint ¶ 87 (J.A. 531).                But the
    Commission itself did not actually name multiple or significant
    errors. Instead, it pointed to a single mistake where the
    complaint had misidentified the pricing zone for one project,
    so the percentage of benefits accruing outside the local zone
    should have been listed as 31% rather than 98%. 
    Id.
     ¶ 87 n.249
    (J.A. 531 n.249). Petitioners insist that this error traced back
    to inaccurate information supplied by MISO. Anyhow, they
    have used the correct 31% figure in all subsequent filings.
    More to the point, substituting a 31% spillover for a 98%
    spillover is not so significant as to affect the upshot of the
    Pterra Report—that there are at least some Baseline Reliability
    Projects for which the current cost-allocation regime produces
    results inconsistent with the cost-causation principle.
    Before this court, the Commission advances a more global
    methodological critique of the Pterra Report. It argues that
    line-outage analysis—the method MISO formerly used to
    allocate costs and that Petitioners used to produce the Pterra
    Report—is not a measure of benefits but rather a measure of
    impacts, which can be beneficial, neutral, or detrimental.
    While MISO urged this point below, the Commission did not
    24
    adopt it in its order denying the complaint. So we give that
    rationale no weight in evaluating the Commission’s reasoning.
    See SEC v. Chenery Corp., 
    332 U.S. 194
    , 196 (1947); Calpine
    Corp. v. FERC, 
    702 F.3d 41
    , 46 (D.C. Cir. 2012) (“[I]t is
    axiomatic that agency decisions may not be affirmed on
    grounds not actually relied upon by the agency.”).6
    Beyond that, the Commission itself had previously
    instructed MISO to include data generated through line-outage
    analysis in its informational filings, and then used that data to
    support its conclusion that location-based cost allocation for
    Baseline Reliability Projects remains sound. See, e.g., Order
    Denying Complaint ¶ 88 (J.A. 531–532) (“[T]he 2016 and
    2017 Informational Filings indicate that 80% of [Baseline
    Reliability Projects] approved in the [2014 and 2015 cycles]
    would have had 100% of costs allocated to the * * * local
    pricing zone under the previous [line-outage] method.”). The
    Commission cannot have it both ways, using line-outage
    analysis to buttress its decision but casting it aside when it cuts
    the other way.
    The Commission separately justifies its conclusion that
    location-based cost allocation for Baseline Reliability Projects
    remains just and reasonable on the ground that the purpose of
    Baseline Reliability Projects is to address “specific and
    localized” reliability issues. Order Denying Complaint ¶ 86
    (J.A. 531). That hardly moves the ball forward. Even if the
    intended purpose of a transmission project is to fix a reliability
    6
    In its brief, the Commission claims that there were analytical
    errors pertaining to a few other projects in the Pterra Report’s overall
    pool. But the Commission did not cite these alleged errors in its
    orders, so this argument suffers from the same Chenery problem.
    25
    problem in one zone, that does not mean its benefits will be
    limited to that zone.
    Also, the notion that the benefits of a new transmission
    facility are confined to the artificial boundaries of the local
    pricing zone “ignores the interconnected nature of the grid.”
    Coalition of MISO Transmission Customers, Responsive
    Testimony of Ricardo R. Austria at 10, EL20-19-000 (June 8,
    2020) (J.A. 486). Take the Pterra Report projects. Even if they
    were initially commissioned to resolve specific and localized
    problems, a significant percentage of their benefits flow
    outside the local zone. When it comes to evaluating
    compliance with the cost-causation principle, it is the
    distribution of benefits, not the original impetus for the project,
    that matters. See Old Dominion, 898 F.3d at 1262 (“[T]he cost-
    causation principle focuses on project benefits, not on how
    particular planning criteria were developed.”).
    2
    Petitioners also point to the disparity between the number
    of Market Efficiency and Multi-Value Projects—projects that
    would be open to competitive bidding—that MISO originally
    forecast and the number that actually arose as further evidence
    that the categorical bar on regionally allocating costs of
    Baseline Reliability Projects should be revisited.          The
    Commission fares better on this front.
    The Commission acknowledged that “MISO’s predictions
    on the development of Multi-Value Projects and Market
    Efficiency Projects [had] not to date materialized,” yet it held
    firmly to its bottom-line conclusion that Baseline Projects need
    never be cost-allocated on a regional basis. Order Denying
    Complaint ¶ 89 (J.A. 532). The Commission reasoned that
    industry conditions had “significantly affected trends” in
    26
    project development, and there was “potential for expanded
    Market Efficiency Project opportunities in the future.” Id.
    Given the Commission’s expertise and first-hand
    experience with trends in the energy industry, its judgment that
    the dearth of Market Efficiency and Multi-Value Projects in
    past years will not necessarily persist going forward warrants
    deference. See Wisconsin Pub. Power, 
    493 F.3d at 260
    .
    Factors like the shifting economics of natural gas and coal, and
    the completion of the large portfolio of Multi-Value Projects
    approved in 2010 and 2011, could lead to renewed demand for
    Market Efficiency and Multi-Value Projects. See Order
    Denying Complaint ¶¶ 55, 89 (J.A. 518, 532). Similarly, the
    Commission’s assessment that recent changes to the MISO
    tariff—like the decrease in voltage threshold for Market
    Efficiency Projects at issue in LSP 2022 II—will bolster the
    number of regionally beneficial projects eligible for
    competitive bidding is reasonable. Of course, if the number of
    competitively bid Multi-Value and Market Efficiency Projects
    continues to hover near zero, while the number of Baseline
    Reliability Projects closed off from competition continues to
    climb, the Commission may be obligated to reassess. But for
    now, it is entitled to the benefit of the doubt.
    3
    To sum up so far, the Commission sufficiently explained
    why the low number of Multi-Value and Market Efficiency
    Projects does not currently warrant a change in the Baseline
    Reliability Project cost-allocation method. But it did not
    adequately rebut evidence from the Pterra Report indicating
    that, for at least some Baseline Reliability Projects, costs are
    being allocated in a manner that is not roughly commensurate
    with benefits.
    27
    Even so, the Commission argues, location-based cost
    allocation still produces a result consistent with the cost-
    causation principle for “the overwhelming majority” of
    Baseline Reliability Projects, and so the method remains just
    and reasonable. Commission Br. 40 (citation omitted).
    Petitioners argue that it is not enough for a cost-allocation
    regime to satisfy the cost-causation principle “most of the
    time” because the Federal Power Act requires that all rates be
    just and reasonable. Petitioners Opening Br. 41 (citing 16
    U.S.C. §§ 824d–824e).
    We agree with Petitioners that the Commission is under a
    statutory mandate to ensure that all rates are just and
    reasonable, and Petitioners have shown that rates are not
    presently just and reasonable for a small number of Baseline
    Reliability Projects. But that does not get the Petitioners home.
    That is because their petition for review does not seek as-
    applied relief just for those Baseline Reliability Projects that
    they have shown run afoul of the cost-causation principle.
    Instead, Petitioners asked the Commission to invalidate
    location-based cost allocation for the entire category of
    Baseline Reliability Projects, even though Petitioners
    themselves admit that allocating costs to the local zone is
    appropriate for “most” Baseline Reliability Projects.
    Petitioners Reply Br. 5 (emphasis omitted). The validity of an
    overall cost-allocation rule need not be determined “on a
    project-by-project basis, which would unravel the framework
    of” specifying cost-allocation methods for categories of
    projects ex ante “established by Order No. 1000 and approved
    by this Court.” Long Island Power Auth. v. FERC, 
    27 F.4th 705
    , 715 (D.C. Cir. 2022). In essence, Petitioners’ evidence—
    limited as it is to a few Baseline Reliability Projects—is
    insufficient to upset the Commission’s continued
    determination, which is still supported by record evidence, that
    28
    the general rule of location-based cost allocation for Baseline
    Reliability Projects conforms with the cost-causation principle.
    Petitioners argue that this court in Old Dominion, and the
    Commission itself in Delaware Public Service Commission,
    
    166 FERC ¶ 61161
     (2019), aff’d sub nom. Public Service
    Electric & Gas. Co., 989 F.3d at 13, rejected the notion that a
    cost-allocation method is just and reasonable as long as it
    works “most of the time.” Petitioners Opening Br. 41–42.
    Petitioners misunderstand both cases.
    In Old Dominion, this court held that it was arbitrary and
    capricious for the Commission to allow one of MISO’s peers,
    PJM Interconnection, LLC, to eliminate regional cost-sharing
    for an entire group of high-voltage projects when the
    Commission itself had previously made a factual finding that
    all “high-voltage transmission facilities have significant
    regional benefits that accrue to all members of the PJM
    transmission system.” 898 F.3d at 1257 (citation omitted); see
    also id. at 1261.
    Petitioners claim that Old Dominion is on all fours with the
    present case. Not so. In Old Dominion, the petitioners
    challenged a change in cost-allocation method that affected
    only high-voltage projects after the Commission had already
    found that such projects, as a category, produce significant
    regional benefits. Here, by contrast, Petitioners are challenging
    a cost-allocation method applicable to all Baseline Reliability
    Projects, based on a showing that only a handful of Baseline
    Reliability Projects do not fit the model. Said another way, in
    Old Dominion the scope of the petitioners’ challenge matched
    the scope of their evidence. Here, Petitioners’ challenge far
    overreaches their evidence.
    As for Delaware Public Service Commission, in that case,
    PJM approved a project to help improve the stability of a set of
    29
    nuclear power plants in New Jersey by providing new outlets
    for their electricity flows terminating at a substation in
    Delaware. Public Serv. Elec. & Gas Co., 989 F.3d at 14–15.
    The Commission rejected PJM’s proposal to assign nearly 90%
    of the costs to the Delaware-Maryland zone because the
    primary beneficiary was the New Jersey zone containing the
    nuclear generators in need of stabilization. Id. at 14–16. The
    Commission explained that, in the “analytically unique”
    context of stability-based grid problems, PJM’s cost-allocation
    method premised on electrical flows failed to identify the true
    beneficiaries. Id. at 18 (citation omitted). This court sustained
    the Commission’s decision, agreeing that leaving the
    Delaware-Maryland zone—the “unlucky zone that happened to
    end up as the sink point for the project”—to pick up 90% of the
    check was inconsistent with the cost-causation principle. Id.
    (formatting modified and citation omitted).
    Observing that the Commission in Delaware Public
    Service Commission found a cost-allocation methodology
    inappropriate where the zone bearing the costs had not caused
    the need for, or received commensurate benefits from, the
    project, Petitioners assert that “[f]or the twelve projects
    identified in the Complaint, that was precisely the showing[.]”
    Petitioners Opening Br. 41 (emphasis added).
    Maybe so. But in Delaware Public Service Commission,
    the Delaware and Maryland agencies demonstrated a violation
    of the cost-causation principle applicable to all stability-related
    projects, and the Commission ordered a change in the cost-
    allocation method for that “analytically unique” category.
    Public Serv. Elec. & Gas Co., 989 F.3d at 17–18 (citation
    omitted). Here, by contrast, Petitioners have demonstrated a
    violation of the cost-causation principle for, at most, twelve
    Baseline Reliability Projects, but are seeking a change in the
    cost-allocation method for all Baseline Reliability Projects. So
    30
    like Old Dominion, Delaware Public Service Commission
    simply accentuates the gap between the scope of Petitioners’
    evidence and the relief they seek.
    4
    To be clear, that Petitioners’ facial challenge to the
    Commission’s ongoing endorsement of location-based cost
    allocation for the entire category of Baseline Reliability
    Projects falls short does not mean that an “as-applied”
    challenge to the application of location-based cost allocation to
    a particular Baseline Reliability Project or subset of Baseline
    Reliability Projects would meet the same fate. Cf. Public Serv.
    Elec. & Gas Co., 989 F.3d at 12–13; BNP Paribas Energy
    Trading GP v. FERC, 
    743 F.3d 264
    , 265–266 (D.C. Cir. 2014)
    (rejecting Commission’s conclusion that the cost-allocation
    method for a single gas storage field complied with the cost-
    causation principle).
    For the statutory requirement of just-and-reasonable rates
    to have meaningful effect in this context, there must be a
    feasible means by which affected parties like Petitioners can
    challenge a cost-allocation method as applied to a specific
    project, and a means by which they can do so before the horse
    has left the barn—that is, while the transmission owner
    assigned to the project and the distribution of costs can still be
    altered. Regulated parties should also have timely access to the
    data necessary for them to determine whether to bring an “as-
    applied” cost-causation challenge in the first place, such as the
    project models that Petitioners used to produce the Pterra
    Report analysis. See Complaint at 47 (J.A. 65) (“MISO models
    available in February 2020 will determine whether” the
    Baseline Reliability Projects in the 2019 plan “have regional
    benefits.”); see also Oral Arg. Tr. 25:17–19 (MISO “doesn’t
    release the models until after the fact[.]”). Nothing the
    31
    Commission represented here suggests that such “as-applied”
    challenges are incompatible with its regulatory framework.
    See Oral Arg. Tr. 47:18–19 (Commission counsel stating, “I do
    think that the rate structure would provide for that sort of as-
    applied challenge.”).
    C
    Petitioners next object that the Commission failed to
    explain how MISO’s retention of location-based cost allocation
    for Baseline Reliability Projects remains consistent with Order
    No. 1000’s prohibition on excluding an entire type of
    transmission facility—here, reliability projects—from regional
    cost allocation. The reasons provided were reasoned enough.
    In 2013, the Commission determined that eliminating
    regional cost allocation for Baseline Reliability Projects was
    compatible with Order No. 1000 since Multi-Value Projects
    also produced reliability benefits and remained eligible for
    regional cost-sharing and competitive bidding. 2013 Order,
    
    142 FERC ¶ 61215
    , at ¶ 519; see also MISO Transmission, 819
    F.3d at 335 (“It’s true that [the Commission] is not allowed to
    exempt all reliability projects from cost sharing, * * * but it can
    exempt some as long as other types of transmission projects
    that yield reliability benefits, such as [M]ulti-[V]alue
    [P]rojects, can be included in a regional plan for purposes of
    cost allocation.”). Emphasizing that not a single Multi-Value
    Project was approved between 2014 and 2019, Petitioners
    assert that, in reality, MISO has “no viable regional cost
    allocation mechanism available for reliability based projects,
    in direct violation of Order [No.] 1000.” Petitioners Opening
    Br. 53.
    As explained earlier, the Commission adequately justified
    its conclusion that temporary and sui generis conditions in the
    region and industry account for the absence of new Multi-
    32
    Value Projects in recent years, and that such conditions are
    unlikely to continue in the future. See Section III.B.2, supra.
    So the Commission has determined, based on its relevant
    expertise, that Multi-Value Projects remain a viable category
    of projects subject to regional cost-sharing. On this record, we
    lack a sufficient basis to second-guess that determination.
    D
    Finally, the Commission did not shirk its requirement of
    reasoned decisionmaking by failing to issue a substantive
    response to Petitioners’ rehearing request, issuing instead a
    one-page order stating that the request was denied by operation
    of law. The rehearing request merely reiterated arguments
    raised earlier and already addressed by the Commission in its
    order denying the complaint. So the Commission was under
    no obligation to say again what it had said before.
    Petitioners counter that their rehearing request “rais[ed]
    five distinct specifications of error.” Petitioners Opening Br.
    56. It certainly did. But every one of those five is simply a
    repackaged version of an argument previously raised either in
    Petitioners’ complaint or in their response to MISO’s answer,
    as evidenced by Petitioners’ practice of repeatedly referring
    back to those earlier filings. For example, in the rehearing
    request, Petitioners argue that the Commission wrongly
    determined “that Baseline Reliability Projects are designed to
    address specific and localized issues.” Coalition of MISO
    Transmission Customers, Request for Rehearing at 22, EL20-
    19-000 (Aug. 27, 2020) (“Request for Rehearing”) (J.A. 559)
    (emphasis omitted). That is apparently so for reasons
    “established in the Complaint[.]” Id. at 23 (J.A. 560). But the
    Commission had already explained in its order denying the
    complaint that it found more persuasive MISO’s contention
    that “the type of reliability issue that a [Baseline Reliability
    33
    Project] is designed to address is typically specific to a
    particular transmission facility or set of facilities owned by the
    same transmission owner.” Order Denying Complaint ¶ 86
    (J.A. 531). In that same way, Petitioners rinse and repeat for
    all five asserted errors.7
    Under these circumstances, nothing in the APA or the
    Federal Power Act obligated the Commission to duplicate in a
    rehearing order the analytical work it had already done. Nor
    can Petitioners show prejudice from the Commission’s failure
    to parrot its earlier responses. After all, the purpose of
    requiring an agency to explain itself is to “provide a considered
    response to the losing party and an opportunity for intelligent
    review by the courts.” Cities of Bethany v. FERC, 
    727 F.2d 1131
    , 1144 (D.C. Cir. 1984). The Commission’s order denying
    the complaint both furnished an answer to each of Petitioners’
    objections and supplied this court with enough explanation to
    facilitate meaningful review.
    7
    Compare Request for Rehearing at 8–15 (J.A. 545–552), with
    Complaint at 25–30 (J.A. 43–48), and Coalition of MISO
    Transmission Customers, Motion to Answer and Answer of
    Complainants at 3–7, 12–15, EL20-19-000 (June 8, 2020)
    (“Response to Answer”) (J.A. 403–407, 412–415) (first specification
    of error); Request for Rehearing at 22–27 (J.A. 559–564), with
    Response to Answer at 43–47 (J.A. 443–447) (second specification
    of error); Request for Rehearing at 27–30 (J.A. 564–567), with
    Complaint at 17–19 (J.A. 35–37) (third specification of error);
    Request for Rehearing at 30–42 (J.A. 567–579), with Complaint at
    25–30, 35–39 (J.A. 43–48, 53–57), and Response to Answer at 48–
    57 (J.A. 448–457) (fourth specification of error); Request for
    Rehearing at 42–45 (J.A. 579–582), with Complaint at 30–32 (J.A.
    48–50), and Response to Answer at 35–43 (J.A. 435–443) (fifth
    specification of error).
    34
    IV
    For all those reasons, the petition for review is denied.
    So ordered.
    ROGERS, Circuit Judge, dissenting in part and concurring
    in part. LSP petitions for review of FERC orders in two cases,
    contending that it has been denied the opportunity to bid on
    transmission projects. A threshold issue was whether LSP
    demonstrated that it has standing under Article III of the
    Constitution to bring these challenges. At oral argument in
    both cases LSP’s experienced counsel asserted that standing
    was self-evident, but candidly acknowledged in response to
    questions1 that LSP’s filings did not include specific evidence
    of its injury-in-fact, as required to establish standing.2 Because
    detailed averments in LSP’s supplemental affidavits filed in
    response to the court’s order, see Am. Orders, No. 20-1421 &
    No. 20-1465 (Feb. 28, 2022) (Rogers, J., not joining), suffice
    to demonstrate standing, I concur in holding LSP has standing
    and in rejecting LSP’s merits challenges to FERC’s orders.
    I.
    To establish standing under Article III, a party “must have
    (1) suffered an injury in fact, (2) that is fairly traceable to the
    challenged conduct of the defendant, and (3) that is likely to be
    redressed by a favorable judicial decision.” Twin Rivers Paper
    Co. LLC v. SEC, 
    934 F.3d 607
    , 612 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (quoting
    Spokeo, Inc. v. Robins, 
    136 S. Ct. 1540
     (2016)). “The party
    invoking the federal courts’ jurisdiction bears the burden of
    establishing each of those elements.” Util. Workers Union of
    Am. Local 464 v. FERC, 
    896 F.3d 573
    , 577 (D.C. Cir. 2018)
    (quoting Lujan v. Defs. of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 561 (1992)).
    Where, as here, the petitions challenge FERC’s orders directly,
    the petitioner’s “burden of production” is “the same as that of
    a plaintiff moving for summary judgment in the district court:
    it must support each element of standing ‘by affidavit or other
    evidence,’ including whatever evidence the administrative
    1
    See OA Tr. No. 20-1421, at 14; OA Tr. No. 20-1465, at 11-12.
    2
    See OA Tr. No. 20-1421, at 14; OA Tr. No. 20-1465, at 11-12, 21-
    23.
    2
    record may already contain.” 
    Id.
     (quoting Sierra Club v. EPA,
    
    292 F.3d 895
    , 899-900 (D.C. Cir. 2002)). More is “requir[ed]”
    than “representations of counsel” in briefs, Sierra Club, 
    292 F.3d at 901
    , or a party’s “bare assertions,” Util. Workers Union,
    896 F.3d at 578. Standing may be self-evident “if the
    complainant is ‘an object of the action (or foregone action) at
    issue.’” Sierra Club, 
    292 F.3d at 900
     (quoting Lujan, 
    504 U.S. at 561-62
    ). But when, as here, “a petitioner is not directly
    regulated by the challenged [order],” Am. Fuel & Petro. Mfrs.
    v. EPA, 
    3 F.4th 373
    , 379 (D.C. Cir. 2021), standing is
    “ordinarily ‘substantially more difficult’ to establish,” Ass’n of
    Am. Physicians & Surgeons, Inc. v. Schiff, 
    23 F.4th 1028
    , 1032
    (D.C. Cir. 2022) (quoting Lujan, 505 U.S. at 562). More
    specifically, if standing is not “self-evident,” then there must
    either be evidence in the administrative record of the requisite
    injury or petitioners must file sworn affidavits with the opening
    briefs “substantiat[ing]” these injuries. Sierra Club, 
    292 F.3d at 900
    ; see D.C. Circuit Rule 28(a)(7) (incorporating Sierra
    Club, 
    292 F.3d at 900-01
    ).
    It is well settled that the petitioner invoking this court’s
    jurisdiction has the burden to provide evidence that it suffers
    an injury “that is both ‘concrete and particularized’ and ‘actual
    or imminent, not conjectural or hypothetical,’” New England
    Power Generators Ass’n, Inc. v. FERC, 
    707 F.3d 364
    , 368
    (D.C. Cir. 2013) (quoting Lujan 
    504 U.S. at 560-61
    ), because
    the injury “has either transpired or is ‘imminent.’” No Gas
    Pipeline v. FERC, 
    756 F.3d 764
    , 767 (D.C. Cir. 2014) (citing
    Occidental Permian Ltd. v. FERC, 
    673 F.3d 1024
    , 1026 (D.C.
    Cir. 2012)). The imminence requirement “ensure[s] that the
    alleged injury is not too speculative for Article III purposes,”
    Union of Concerned Scientists v. Dep’t of Energy, 
    998 F.3d 926
    , 929 (D.C. Cir. 2021) (quoting Clapper, 568 U.S. at 409),
    so assertions of incurring harm “some day,” Kans. Corp.
    Comm’n v. FERC, 
    881 F.3d 924
    , 930 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (quoting
    3
    Lujan, 
    504 U.S. at 564
    ), or dependent upon an “attenuated
    chain” of interim steps, 
    id.
     (quoting Clapper, 568 U.S. at 410),
    are insufficient.    Rather, the petitioner must “show a
    ‘substantial probability’ that all of these steps will occur and, if
    so, when.” Id. (quoting Am. Petroleum Inst. v. EPA, 
    216 F.3d 50
    , 63 (D.C. Cir. 2000)).
    Neither the Supreme Court nor this court has held that a
    bare assertion that a petitioner is “ready, willing, and able” to
    compete is sufficient to establish Article III injury-in-fact.
    Contra No. 20-1421, slip op. at 16; No. 20-1465, slip op. at 14.
    Nor was this argument advanced by LSP in its opening briefs.
    Cf. Schneider v. Kissinger, 
    412 F.3d 190
    , 200 n.1 (D.C. Cir.
    2005). As the court recently reiterated, “general averments,
    conclusory allegations, and speculative some day intentions are
    inadequate to demonstrate injury in fact.” Finnbin, LLC v.
    Consumer Prod. Safety Comm’n, No. 21-1180 (Aug. 2, 2022)
    (slip op. at 13) (quoting Worth v. Jackson, 
    451 F.3d 854
    , 858
    (D.C. Cir. 2006)). Thus, in LSP Transmission Holdings, LLC
    v. FERC (“LSP I”), 700 F. App’x 1 (D.C. Cir. 2017), the court
    found no standing where petitioners “identified no specific
    project” for which they were prevented from competing. Id. at
    *2. By contrast, in LSP Transmission Holdings II, LLC v.
    FERC (“LSP II”), 
    28 F.4th 1285
     (D.C. Cir. 2022), the court
    held petitioners had standing when they “identified” “thirty []
    projects” for which they were “denied the ability to bid.” Id. at
    1289.
    II.
    Although this court has identified limited circumstances
    where it may exercise its discretion to request that parties
    submit supplemental affidavits to establish their standing,
    those circumstances did not exist in the instant cases. For
    example, “if the parties reasonably, but mistakenly, believed
    4
    that the initial filings before the court had sufficiently
    demonstrated standing, the court may . . . request supplemental
    affidavits and briefing to determine whether the parties have
    met the requirements for standing.” Ams. For Safe Access v.
    DEA, 
    706 F.3d 438
     (D.C. Cir. 2013) (citing Pub. Citizen, Inc.
    v. Nat’l Highway Traffic Safety Admin., 
    489 F.3d 1279
    , 1296–
    97 (D.C. Cir. 2007)). And although LSP’s counsel in both
    cases acknowledged the insufficiency of their initial filings,
    they never requested that the court allow them to provide
    supplemental affidavits, as had occurred in American Library
    Ass’n v. FCC, 
    401 F.3d 489
    , 492 (D.C. Cir. 2005). See Cmtys.
    Against Runway Expansion, Inc. v. FAA, 
    335 F.3d 678
    , 684
    (D.C. Cir. 2004). Indeed it appears that LSP’s reluctance, in
    the absence of a court order to supplement the record here may
    stem from interim action by the Commission to afford
    petitioners like LSP the relief they sought, namely for the
    Commission to reconsider its requirements for approving
    transmission development plans. See Advance Notice of
    Proposed Rulemaking (July 15, 2021) (“2021 ANPR”), RM21-
    17-000, where there is a broad and comprehensive inquiry into
    the effects of its Orders on transmission planning and
    development, see 2021 ANPR, at 26, where LSP has submitted
    lengthy comments; No. 20-1421, Pet’rs’ Br. at 21-25; No. 20-
    1465, Pet’rs’ Br. at 26-30.
    Consequently, upon expanding circumstances for
    supplemental filings, the court ordered LSP to file
    supplemental submissions “to explain and substantiate their
    claim of standing.” See Am. Orders, at 1 (Feb. 28, 2022)
    (Rogers, J., not joining). 3 In the two cases now before the
    3
    LSP’s supplemental briefs in combination with its counsels’
    statements at oral argument suggest that petitioners “reasonably, but
    mistakenly, believed” that their initial filings were adequate to
    demonstrate Article III Standing. See Am. Orders, at 1-2 (Feb. 28,
    2022) (Rogers, J., not joining); OA Tr. No. 20-1421, at 6, 13, 22-23,
    5
    court, LSP’s initial submissions were insufficient to establish
    standing because they “failed to identify a ‘specific project’”
    for which petitioners were prevented from competing. LSP II,
    28 F.4th at 1289 (quoting LSP I, 700 F. App’x at *2). Being
    “ready, willing, and able” is not the standard under relevant
    precedent. This was clear at oral argument when LSP’s
    counsel could not identify evidence of its standing in either
    case. In No. 20-1421, the court inquired where it could find
    evidence that LSP “would have bid on” specific projects that
    were “erroneously” categorized. OA Tr. No. 20-1421, at 14.4
    Counsel responded citing pages in the record that do not
    identify such projects. Id. And when the court asked counsel
    where the record stated that LSP “competes on all projects,” he
    did not point the court to the information it requested. Id. at
    14. Likewise in No. 20-1465, counsel for LSP did not cite
    record evidence when asked to identify specific projects for
    which his client would compete, OA Tr. No. 20-1465, at 11-12,
    and did not assist the court when he was later prompted to
    “help” it find standing. Id. at 21-23.
    In both cases, however, LSP’s supplemented records
    rectify the deficiencies of its initial filings. In No. 20-1421,
    71; Supp. Br. Standing, No. 20-1421, at 3, 7, 9 (Mar. 9, 2022); OA
    Tr. No. 20-1465, at 11, 20; Supp. Br. Standing, No. 20-1465, at 3-4,
    6, 8 (Mar. 9, 2022).
    4
    Judge Pillard asked counsel “But where can I find a statement such
    as a manager declaration or, you know, CEO declaration, saying, we
    would have bid on these, these ones that are, that are erroneously
    treated as local rather than regional?” OA Tr. No. 20-1421, at 14.
    Judge Rogers asked counsel where in the record it stated that his
    client “competes on all projects.” Id. at 14. Judge Pillard also asked
    counsel “Where did you identify that those were projects that your
    clients would bid on?” OA Tr. No. 20-1465, at 11-12.
    6
    LSP’s President Paul Thessen avers that LSP would have
    competed on twelve specific projects identified in the
    complaint had the projects been subjected to competition: “I
    can state with confidence that had MISO conducted a
    competitive solicitation process for Baseline Reliability
    Projects providing regional benefits, such as the 12 projects
    referenced in the complaint, LS Power Midcontinent would
    have submitted proposals and constructed any awarded
    projects when and where permitted to do so.” Thessen Aff.,
    No. 20-1421, at 8 (Mar. 9, 2022). Additionally, Thessen
    averred that LSP would have competed for 113 projects
    approved by MISO in 2019 if competition had been available,
    and that LSP “would have competed on 2020 and 2021 projects
    when and where permitted had any been subject to
    competition.” Id. at 4. In No. 20-1465, Thessen’s affidavit
    avers “unequivocally yes,” that LSP’s affiliates
    “would . . . submit proposals if regionally beneficial economic
    projects between 100 kV and 229 kV or Market Efficiency
    Projects that are coupled with a Baseline Reliability Project
    were available for competition.” Thessen Aff., No. 20-1465,
    at 10 (Mar. 9, 2022).
    Further, Thessen points to projects at pages 11-13 of LSP’s
    Complaint as ones that have been excluded from competition
    due to their classification by the Midcontinent System
    Operator, Inc. (“MISO”) in the “Other Project Category.” Id.
    at 9. Thessen avers “with confidence that had MISO conducted
    a competitive solicitation process for some or all the economic
    projects that are the subject of the Complaint,” LSP’s affiliates
    “would have submitted proposals and constructed any awarded
    projects when and where permitted to do so.” Id. at 11.
    Thessen’s affidavits thereby suffice under the relevant
    precedent to establish LSP’s Article III standing by identifying
    specific projects for which LSP would compete, see LSP II, 28
    7
    F.4th at 1289 (citing LSP I, 700 F. App’x at 2), such that it is
    actually or imminently harmed by the challenged orders, see
    Clapper, 568 U.S. at 409-10. In both cases, therefore,
    Thessen’s declarations establish an imminent harm as a result
    of the challenged orders by “distinguish[ing]” LSP from “any
    other party who might someday wish to build” a facility. N.Y.
    Reg’l Interconnect, Inc. v. FERC, 
    634 F.3d 581
    , 587-88 (D.C.
    Cir. 2011).
    III.
    In view of the supplemented record establishing LSP’s
    Article III standing under binding precedent, I reach the merits
    of the challenges to FERC’s orders. For the reasons stated by
    the court in No. 20-1421, slip op. at 19-34 and No. 20-1465,
    slip op. at 17-34, I conclude that the petitions for review lack
    merit because FERC’s decisions were not arbitrary and
    capricious. Rather, while acknowledging flaws in some of
    LSP’s arguments on appeal, the court concluded that the
    Commission provided reasoned explanations for denying
    LSP’s petitions for review. For instance, noting the strength of
    LSP’s new evidence to show spillover of Baseline Reliability
    Project benefits to zones other than the local zone under the
    location cost-based allocation approach, it was a sufficiently
    small subset of projects (twelve out of 400) that the
    Commission, in light of its experience and expertise and
    responses to LSP’s arguments, could reasonably conclude that
    setting aside the cost-allocation method for all the projects was
    not required. See No. 20-1421, slip op. Part II.B, at 20.
    Accordingly, I dissent in part and concur in part.