United States v. Simon Dillon , 738 F.3d 284 ( 2013 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued October 24, 2013           Decided December 24, 2013
    No. 13-3044
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    APPELLEE
    v.
    SIMON A. DILLON,
    APPELLANT
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:12-cr-00012-1)
    Christopher M. Davis, appointed by the court, argued the
    cause for appellant. With him on the briefs was Mary E.
    Davis, appointed by the court.
    David B. Goodhand, Assistant U.S. Attorney, argued the
    cause for appellee. With him on the brief were Ronald C.
    Machen Jr., U.S. Attorney, and Elizabeth Trosman,
    G. Michael Harvey, and Fernando Campoamor-Sanchez,
    Assistant U.S. Attorneys.
    Before: KAVANAUGH and SRINIVASAN, Circuit Judges,
    and EDWARDS, Senior Circuit Judge.
    2
    EDWARDS, Senior Circuit Judge: This appeal contests the
    District Court’s order authorizing the Government to
    medicate Defendant-Appellant Simon Dillon, by force if
    necessary, for the sole purpose of rendering him competent to
    stand trial. We review this matter with a sobering awareness
    that requiring a person to take unwanted psychotropic
    medication entails a grave deprivation of a liberty interest
    protected by the Due Process Clause. See Washington v.
    Harper, 
    494 U.S. 210
    , 221 (1990) (noting that an individual
    “possesses a significant liberty interest in avoiding the
    unwanted administration of antipsychotic drugs”).
    Our decision is largely controlled by Sell v. United States,
    where the Supreme Court held that the Government may, on
    “rare” occasions, forcibly medicate a defendant to restore his
    competency. 
    539 U.S. 166
    , 180 (2003). But to do so, the
    Government must establish, inter alia, (1) that the
    Government has an “important” interest in the prosecution
    that is undiminished by special circumstances and (2) that the
    proposed medication will “significantly further” this
    important interest. 
    Id. at 180-81.
    The Government contends
    this case is one of the “rare” instances contemplated by Sell.
    Dillon, who has a history of mental illness, was indicted
    for threatening the President in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 871.
    The District Court found him incompetent to stand trial and,
    upon the Government’s motion for involuntary medication,
    conducted a Sell hearing in April 2013. The District Court
    determined that the Government carried its burden of
    establishing “that the Sell standards have been met and that
    involuntary medication is appropriate and necessary.” United
    States v. Dillon, No. 12-CR-12 (JDB), 
    2013 WL 1859289
    , at
    *1 (D.D.C. May 3, 2013). This appeal followed.
    3
    Dillon argues that the District Court erred in failing to
    consider whether the possibility of his being civilly confined
    undermines the importance of the Government’s prosecutorial
    interest under the first Sell factor. Br. of Appellant at 21-29.
    Dillon also argues that the District Court erred in neglecting
    to weigh that he is not a dangerous individual, a fact that he
    contends should be relevant because it diminishes the
    Government’s interest in his prosecution. 
    Id. at 18-21.
    Finally,
    Dillon contends that certain of the District Court’s findings
    concerning his diagnosis were clearly erroneous. 
    Id. at 29-43.
    We reject Dillon’s arguments and affirm. First, given the
    record in this case, we find no merit in Dillon’s claim that the
    District Court committed reversible error in failing to consider
    the prospect that he might face civil confinement. Dillon did
    not argue to the District Court, as he does now, that he was
    likely to be civilly confined and that his probable confinement
    constituted a “special circumstance” weakening the
    Government’s interest in prosecution. Dillon thus forfeited the
    argument, and any claim to plain error is thwarted by Dillon’s
    repeated assertions that he is not dangerous, which undercut
    the likelihood that Dillon will be civilly confined. See 18
    U.S.C. § 4246(d) (authorizing confinement only upon a
    showing that an individual’s “release would create a
    substantial risk of bodily injury to another person or serious
    damage to property of another” (emphasis added)); D.C.
    CODE § 21-545(b)(2) (authorizing commitment only if a
    person is “likely to injure himself or others if not committed”
    and requiring the “least restrictive alternative consistent with
    the best interests of the person and the public” (emphasis
    added)). Second, even if Dillon is correct that he is not
    dangerous apart from allegedly threatening the President with
    bodily harm, this fact by itself would not render unimportant
    the Government’s interest in prosecuting him for a serious
    and dangerous crime. Finally, we hold that the District
    4
    Court’s factual findings have a sound evidentiary basis and
    are not clearly erroneous.
    I. BACKGROUND
    Dillon, who has been repeatedly hospitalized for his
    mental illness, was indicted under 18 U.S.C. § 871 for
    threatening to inflict bodily harm upon the President. On
    December 10, 2011, he allegedly sent an e-mail to a United
    States Secret Service agent from a location three blocks away
    from the White House that stated that “no harm” would come
    to the President if he met with Dillon and agreed to “meet the
    demands of God.” If these demands went unmet, the e-mail
    continued, the President would “get the worse [sic] Christmas
    present ever,” “will suffer for 30 days,” and “will wish for
    death, but death will not come to him.”
    The Secret Service arrested Dillon the next day.
    Following his detention, the D.C. Department of Mental
    Health sought his involuntary civil commitment. After an
    administrative hearing on January 5, 2012, the D.C. Mental
    Health Commission recommended that Dillon be committed
    on an outpatient basis. Dillon contested this recommendation
    before the D.C. Superior Court, which stayed the matter after
    criminal charges were filed.
    On January 13, 2012, eight days after the D.C. Mental
    Health Commission had recommended outpatient civil
    commitment, a grand jury indicted Dillon under 18 U.S.C.
    § 871. Dillon was then arrested, and, shortly thereafter, the
    District Court ordered that he be committed to the care of the
    Attorney General for a competency determination pursuant to
    18 U.S.C. § 4241.
    5
    Government doctors evaluated Dillon’s competency on
    three separate occasions during pretrial proceedings and
    reached three distinct diagnoses. First, Drs. William J. Ryan
    and Elissa R. Miller evaluated Dillon at the Metropolitan
    Correctional Center. In a competency report issued in March
    2012, Drs. Ryan and Miller diagnosed Dillon with
    Schizophrenia, Paranoid Type. Drs. Ryan and Miller
    nevertheless concluded that Dillon was competent to stand
    trial, albeit with the caveat that their opinion was offered
    “with less than the usual degree of psychological certainty”
    because Dillon was “unable to rationally consider an Insanity
    Defense to which he may be entitled.”
    Second, after both parties orally moved for further
    psychiatric evaluation, Dr. Heather H. Ross evaluated Dillon
    at Butner Federal Medical Center (“Butner”). In an August
    2012 report, Dr. Ross diagnosed Dillon with Delusional
    Disorder, Grandiose Type. Dr. Ross further concluded that
    Dillon’s mental illness rendered him incompetent to stand
    trial because it prevented him from assisting properly in his
    defense. The District Court then held a competency hearing
    and, consistent with Dr. Ross’s recommendation, found
    Dillon incompetent to stand trial.
    Third, after the District Court found Dillon incompetent,
    it ordered that he again be committed to the custody of the
    Attorney General, this time for a determination of whether,
    with treatment, there would be “a substantial probability that
    . . . [Dillon would] attain the capacity to permit the
    proceedings to go forward.” 18 U.S.C. § 4241(d)(1). Drs. Jill
    R. Grant and Jill C. Volin evaluated Dillon at Butner and
    authored a competency restoration study that they submitted
    to the District Court in February 2013. They diagnosed Dillon
    with Schizoaffective Disorder, Bipolar Type and concluded
    that Dillon remained incompetent to stand trial. Drs. Grant
    6
    and Volin also concluded that there was a substantial
    probability that Dillon could be restored to competence with
    antipsychotic medication. They based their conclusion on a
    number of studies estimating the rate at which psychotic
    defendants are successfully restored to competency. See, e.g.,
    Robert E. Cochrane et al., The Sell Effect: Involuntary
    Medication Treatment Is a “Clear and Convincing” Success,
    LAW & HUM. BEHAV. (2012), reprinted in Joint Appendix
    (“J.A.”) 279-88; Bryon L. Herbel & Hans Stelmach,
    Involuntary Medication Treatment for Competency
    Restoration of 22 Defendants with Delusional Disorder, 35 J.
    AM. ACAD. PSYCHIATRY & LAW 47 (2007), reprinted in J.A.
    289-301. In further support of their conclusion, Drs. Grant
    and Volin also pointed to Dillon’s medical history that
    indicated that he had responded favorably to psychotropic
    medication during past hospitalizations.
    Based on their findings, Drs. Grant and Volin requested a
    judicial order under Sell authorizing them to administer a
    course of involuntary antipsychotic medication to restore
    Dillon’s competency. Drs. Grant and Volin stated that they
    sought authorization under Sell because Dillon did not meet
    the criteria for forcible medication articulated in Harper. 
    See 494 U.S. at 227
    (holding that “given the requirements of the
    prison environment, the Due Process Clause permits the State
    to treat a prison inmate who has a serious mental illness with
    antipsychotic drugs against his will, if the inmate is dangerous
    to himself or others and the treatment is in the inmate’s
    medical interest”).
    Based on the February 2013 competency restoration
    study, the Government moved to have Dillon forcibly
    medicated. In April 2013, the District Court conducted a Sell
    hearing at which Drs. Grant and Volin testified as expert
    witnesses in the areas of clinical forensic psychology and
    7
    forensic psychiatry, respectively. Dillon also testified that a
    past diagnosis of psychosis was due to behavior induced by
    peyote, and that he suffered side effects in the form of
    depression and numbness in his extremities after he was
    administered Risperdal, an antipsychotic medication. Tr. of
    Hr’g (Apr. 17, 2013) at 127-29, reprinted in J.A. 184-86.
    Shortly after the hearing, the District Court issued its
    Memorandum Opinion authorizing involuntary medication.
    
    2013 WL 1859289
    . As relevant to this appeal, the District
    Court found that the “government has an important interest in
    bringing defendant to trial” that is not undermined by “special
    circumstances,” 
    id. at *3-4,
    and that “involuntary medication
    will significantly further the government’s interest in
    prosecuting defendant,” 
    id. at *7.
    This court has jurisdiction to hear this appeal under 28
    U.S.C. § 1291 because an order authorizing the administration
    of involuntary medication meets the “collateral order”
    exception to the usual rule that pretrial orders are not
    immediately appealable. 
    Sell, 539 U.S. at 176-77
    .
    II. ANALYSIS
    The parties do not dispute that the Supreme Court’s
    decision in Sell largely controls the disposition of this case.
    They do not agree, however, on how the holdings of Sell
    should be applied to the facts of this case. We will therefore
    preface our analysis of the parties’ claims with a close reading
    of Sell to determine the legal parameters that guide our
    decision.
    The Supreme Court’s decision in Sell relied on two of its
    prior decisions – Harper and Riggins v. Nevada, 
    504 U.S. 127
    (1992) – to formulate the constitutional prerequisites to the
    8
    Government’s involuntarily medicating a defendant to restore
    his trial competency. 
    Sell, 539 U.S. at 177-79
    . In Harper, the
    Court concluded that an individual’s liberty interest in
    avoiding forced medication, though “significant,” could be
    overcome by the important state interest in “providing
    appropriate medical treatment to reduce the danger that an
    inmate suffering from a serious mental disorder represents to
    himself or 
    others.” 494 U.S. at 221
    , 236. It was thus
    constitutionally permissible for the State of Washington to
    medicate a non-consenting inmate whose mental illness
    caused him to be a danger to himself or others in the prison
    environment. 
    Id. at 225-26,
    236. And in Riggins, the Court
    observed that, in addition to the governmental interest in
    mitigating an inmate’s dangerousness, a state could forcibly
    medicate a defendant for the purpose of bringing him to 
    trial. 504 U.S. at 135
    (“[T]he State might have been able to justify
    medically appropriate, involuntary treatment with the drug by
    establishing that it could not obtain an adjudication . . . by
    using less intrusive means.”).
    Relying on Harper and Riggins, the Supreme Court
    prescribed a detailed, four-part inquiry for district courts to
    undertake prior to authorizing involuntary medication to
    restore defendants to competency:
    First, a court must find that important governmental
    interests are at stake. The Government’s interest in
    bringing to trial an individual accused of a serious crime
    is important. . . .
    Courts, however, must consider the facts of the
    individual case in evaluating the Government’s interest in
    prosecution. Special circumstances may lessen the
    importance of that interest. . . .
    9
    Second, the court must conclude that involuntary
    medication will significantly further those concomitant
    state interests. It must find that administration of the
    drugs is substantially likely to render the defendant
    competent to stand trial. At the same time, it must find
    that administration of the drugs is substantially unlikely
    to have side effects that will interfere significantly with
    the defendant’s ability to assist counsel in conducting a
    trial defense, thereby rendering the trial unfair. . . .
    Third, the court must conclude that involuntary
    medication is necessary to further those interests. The
    court must find that any alternative, less intrusive
    treatments are unlikely to achieve substantially the same
    results. . . .
    Fourth, as we have said, the court must conclude that
    administration of the drugs is medically appropriate, i.e.,
    in the patient’s best medical interest in light of his
    medical condition.
    
    Sell, 539 U.S. at 180-81
    (citations omitted).
    In addition, the Court in Sell took pains to ensure that the
    four-part inquiry it announced would not be conflated with a
    Harper inquiry into whether an individual’s dangerousness
    could justify the forcible administration of antipsychotic
    medication. 
    Id. at 181-82.
    The Court instructed that “[t]here
    are often strong reasons for a court to determine whether
    forced administration of drugs can be justified on these
    alternative [Harper] grounds before turning to the trial
    competence question.” 
    Id. at 182.
    By considering Harper
    grounds first, a court might obviate the need to conduct the
    more difficult inquiry under Sell, and “[e]ven if a court
    decides medication cannot be authorized on the alternative
    10
    grounds, the findings underlying such a decision will help to
    inform expert opinion and judicial decisionmaking in respect
    to a request to administer drugs for trial competence
    purposes.” 
    Id. at 183.
    Trial courts should thus “ordinarily
    determine whether the Government seeks, or has first sought,
    permission for forced administration of drugs on these other
    Harper-type grounds; and, if not, why not.” 
    Id. In this
    case, the District Court conducted an analysis
    pursuant to Sell after Drs. Grant and Volin reported that
    Dillon did not meet the criteria for forcible medication
    articulated in Harper. And the Government does not contend
    that Dillon was a danger to himself or others while
    incarcerated and, thus, should be forcibly medicated pursuant
    to Harper. Given this record, the focus of our decision will be
    on the dictates of Sell, not Harper.
    A. Standards of Review and Proof
    The Supreme Court in Sell did not prescribe a standard of
    appellate review, and this circuit has yet to address the matter.
    Most of our sister circuits conduct de novo review of a district
    court’s holding that the Government’s interest is “important”
    under the first prong of Sell, and assess a district court’s
    remaining Sell findings for clear error. See United States v.
    Fazio, 
    599 F.3d 835
    , 839 (8th Cir. 2010) (noting the
    “overwhelming majority of courts” adopting this approach);
    see also United States v. Diaz, 
    630 F.3d 1314
    , 1331 (11th Cir.
    2011); United States v. Green, 
    532 F.3d 538
    , 546, 552 (6th
    Cir. 2008); United States v. Hernandez-Vasquez, 
    513 F.3d 908
    , 915-16 (9th Cir. 2007) (as amended Jan. 22, 2008);
    United States v. Palmer, 
    507 F.3d 300
    , 303 (5th Cir. 2007);
    United States v. Evans, 
    404 F.3d 227
    , 236, 240 (4th Cir.
    2005); United States v. Gomes, 
    387 F.3d 157
    , 160 (2d Cir.
    2004). But see United States v. Bradley, 
    417 F.3d 1107
    , 1113-
    11
    14 (10th Cir. 2005) (concluding that second Sell factor, in
    addition to the first, is a “legal question” to be reviewed de
    novo).
    We adopt the approach taken by the majority of circuits.
    See 
    Hernandez-Vasquez, 513 F.3d at 915
    (following the
    majority’s approach of reviewing the second Sell factor for
    clear error, instead of the Tenth Circuit’s approach, because
    the question of whether medicating a defendant would
    “significantly further” the Government’s interest “typically
    involves substantial questions of fact”). We thus review de
    novo the District Court’s conclusion that the Government has
    an important interest in prosecuting Dillon, and consider
    whether the balance of the District Court’s findings are
    clearly erroneous.
    We hasten to add one qualification, however. To the
    extent that the District Court’s determination under the first
    prong of Sell depends on findings of fact, see 
    Sell, 539 U.S. at 180
    (“Courts . . . must consider the facts of the individual
    case in evaluating the Government’s interest in prosecution.”
    (emphasis added)), we review those findings under a
    clear-error standard. See 
    Evans, 404 F.3d at 236
    (observing
    that although the Fourth Circuit’s review under the first prong
    of Sell is de novo, “review [of] any factual findings relevant to
    this legal determination [is] for clear error”); see also United
    States v. Mikulich, 
    732 F.3d 692
    , 696 (6th Cir. 2013).
    The Supreme Court also did not establish the burden of
    proof to be applied to Sell determinations. Noting the absence
    of controlling authority in our circuit, the District Court
    concluded that the Government was required to establish each
    Sell factor under a clear and convincing standard of proof,
    adopting the approach taken by other courts of appeals.
    Dillon, 
    2013 WL 1859289
    , at *1 n.1 (citing United States v.
    12
    Bush, 
    585 F.3d 806
    , 814 (4th Cir. 2009); 
    Green, 532 F.3d at 545
    n.6). The Government has not disputed this conclusion,
    and Dillon has not advocated for a higher burden.
    We agree with the District Court’s approach and join our
    sister circuits in holding that factual determinations under Sell
    must be supported by clear and convincing evidence. See
    
    Diaz, 630 F.3d at 1331
    (“Other circuit courts that have
    considered this issue uniformly concluded that in Sell cases
    the government bears the burden of proof on factual questions
    by clear and convincing evidence.”); United States v.
    Chatmon, 
    718 F.3d 369
    , 374 (4th Cir. 2013); 
    Fazio, 599 F.3d at 840
    n.2; 
    Bradley, 417 F.3d at 1114
    ; 
    Gomes, 387 F.3d at 160
    . Holding the Government to a clear and convincing
    standard of proof affords due regard to the nature of the
    liberty interest at stake in forced-medication cases. See United
    States v. White, 
    620 F.3d 401
    , 422 (4th Cir. 2010) (Keenan, J.,
    concurring) (noting “the physical violence inherent in forcible
    medication” and that “forcible administration of drugs
    necessarily requires a substantial and degrading intrusion of
    the body”).
    B. The First Sell Factor
    Dillon begins by challenging the District Court’s
    determination under the first Sell factor that “important
    governmental interests are at stake” in his 
    prosecution. 539 U.S. at 180
    . A proper analysis of this first factor addresses
    two distinct questions. A court must first determine whether
    the charged crime is “serious,” because the Government’s
    interest in a prosecution generally qualifies as “important”
    when the defendant is charged with a serious crime. 
    Id. Next, considering
    the specific facts of the case before it, a court
    must evaluate whether “[s]pecial circumstances . . . lessen the
    importance of that interest.” 
    Id. Sell lists
    two examples of
    13
    special circumstances: an extended period of pretrial
    detention and the prospect of lengthy civil confinement. 
    Id. Observing that
    Dillon had conceded the seriousness of
    his alleged offense, the District Court concluded that the
    Government’s interest in prosecuting him was “important.”
    
    2013 WL 1859289
    , at *3. Turning to the second part of the
    analysis, the District Court considered, and rejected, Dillon’s
    argument that his pretrial confinement undercut the
    Government’s interest. 
    Id. at *3-4.
    The District Court did not
    consider the prospect that Dillon might face a lengthy civil
    confinement because Dillon “did not make such an
    argument.” 
    Id. at *3
    n.7. Nor did the District Court consider
    any other special circumstance. 
    Id. at *3-4.
    Dillon continues to concede on appeal that the charged
    crime is “serious” under Sell. Br. of Appellant at 18. In light
    of Dillon’s concession, we need not wade into the debate
    among our sister circuits about whether the seriousness of a
    crime is measured by the statutory maximum or the likely
    guideline sentence, or both. Compare United States v.
    Valenzuela–Puentes, 
    479 F.3d 1220
    , 1226 (10th Cir. 2007)
    (examining both the statutory maximum and the likely
    guideline sentence to determine whether a crime is “serious”),
    with 
    Evans, 404 F.3d at 238
    (4th Cir. 2005) (concluding that
    focusing on a defendant’s probable guideline range would be
    “unworkable”). However, Dillon argues that the District
    Court erred by failing to consider two “special circumstances”
    that he claims diminish what would otherwise qualify as an
    important governmental interest in his prosecution. The first
    special circumstance, he contends, is the prospect of his civil
    confinement. Br. of Appellant at 21-29. The second is his own
    purported non-dangerousness. 
    Id. at 18-21.
    We consider each
    argument in turn.
    14
    1.   Possibility of Lengthy Confinement Resulting
    from Civil Commitment
    As noted above, Sell makes clear that a district court may
    appropriately consider the likelihood of a defendant’s civil
    confinement in determining whether to order the forcible
    medication of a defendant to restore his competency to stand
    trial. On this point, the Court pointed out that “[t]he potential
    for future confinement affects, but does not totally undermine,
    the strength of the need for prosecution.” 
    Sell, 539 U.S. at 180
    . This is unsurprising because a “defendant’s failure to
    take drugs voluntarily . . . may mean lengthy confinement in
    an institution for the mentally ill—and that would diminish
    the risks that ordinarily attach to freeing without punishment
    one who has committed a serious crime.” 
    Id. Here, the
    District Court declined to analyze the issue or make a finding
    concerning the likelihood of civil confinement. Dillon now
    contends this was error.
    To begin with, the District Court correctly concluded that
    Dillon failed to raise this argument during its proceedings. In
    his opposition to the Government’s motion for involuntary
    medication, Dillon identified his pretrial custody and his
    purported non-dangerousness as “special circumstances”
    undermining the prosecutorial interest; he did not mention the
    prospect of civil confinement. Def.’s Opp’n to Involuntary
    Medication, reprinted in J.A. 12-21. And Dillon failed to
    pursue the point during arguments before the District Court,
    even though the Government mentioned the issue in its brief
    and at argument. See Gov’t’s Mem. at 18, reprinted in J.A.
    39; Tr. of Oral Arg. (Apr. 26, 2013) at 13-14, reprinted in
    J.A. 212-13. The issue was never joined.
    It is also important to note that the District Court did not
    in any way foreclose Dillon from arguing the civil-
    15
    commitment point or from introducing evidence that his
    confinement was likely. Thus, Dillon had ample opportunity
    to cross-examine the Government’s witnesses and to call his
    own. Tr. of Hr’g (Apr. 17, 2013) at 25, 95, 136, reprinted in
    J.A. 82, 152, 193. In short, the record provides no basis for
    Dillon’s statement to this court that the District Court
    “foreclosed consideration” of civil commitment. See Br. of
    Appellant at 27 n.8.
    Under our well-established precedent, Dillon’s
    civil-confinement argument was forfeited when he failed to
    raise it with the District Court. See, e.g., Potter v. District of
    Columbia, 
    558 F.3d 542
    , 550 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (“It is well
    settled that issues and legal theories not asserted at the District
    Court level ordinarily will not be heard on appeal.” (quoting
    District of Columbia v. Air Fla., Inc., 
    750 F.2d 1077
    , 1084
    (D.C. Cir. 1984))). Because Dillon did not argue the point
    before the District Court, and because the District Court did
    not address it, we generally inquire no further into the matter.
    See Dyson v. District of Columbia, 
    710 F.3d 415
    , 419 (D.C.
    Cir. 2013).
    At oral argument before this court, however, counsel for
    Dillon asked us to review the District Court’s omission for
    plain error. Under Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 52(b),
    we can correct unpreserved error only when there is (1)
    “error,” (2) that is “plain,” and (3) that “affects substantial
    rights.” United States v. Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 732 (1993)
    (alteration omitted). If all three conditions are met, we may
    “notice a forfeited error, but only if (4) the error ‘seriously
    affect[s] the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of judicial
    proceedings.’” Johnson v. United States, 
    520 U.S. 461
    , 467
    (1997) (quoting 
    Olano, 507 U.S. at 732
    ). See generally
    EDWARDS, ELLIOTT & LEVY, FEDERAL STANDARDS OF
    REVIEW ch. VIII (2d ed. 2013).
    16
    Sell leaves little doubt that the prospect of a defendant’s
    lengthy civil confinement is a focal point of the “special
    circumstances” 
    analysis. 539 U.S. at 180
    . However, even if
    the District Court plainly erred when it declined to analyze the
    possibility of civil confinement, this omission did not affect
    Dillon’s substantial rights under the third prong of Olano
    because Dillon has not shown “a reasonable probability that,
    but for the error claimed, the result of the proceeding would
    have been different.” United States v. Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 82 (2004) (quotation and alteration omitted);
    EDWARDS, ELLIOTT & 
    LEVY, supra, at 105
    . We rest this
    conclusion on the record and on Dillon’s own arguments:
    First, the record as it stands offers insufficient support for the
    proposition that Dillon is likely to be civilly confined (as
    opposed to committed as an outpatient); and, second, Dillon’s
    consistent assertions that he is not dangerous serve only to
    dilute any argument that Dillon is likely to be civilly
    confined. We amplify these two points below.
    The record before us does not support a finding that
    Dillon is likely to be civilly confined. Although the Sell Court
    mentioned “civil commitment,” it is clear from the context
    that the Court was concerned with the prospect of civil
    confinement. 
    See 539 U.S. at 180
    (“The defendant’s failure to
    take drugs voluntarily . . . may mean lengthy confinement . . .
    that would diminish the risks that ordinarily attach to freeing
    without punishment one who has committed a serious crime.”
    (emphasis added)). The D.C. Mental Health Commission
    recommended to the D.C. Superior Court that Dillon be
    civilly committed on an outpatient basis. Gov’t’s Mem. at 12,
    reprinted in J.A. 33. Even though this report does not appear
    in the record, we know from the applicable statute that the
    Commission can recommend commitment only after finding
    that Dillon was “mentally ill, and because of the illness is
    17
    likely to injure himself or other persons if not committed.”
    D.C. CODE § 21-544. But we also know that the Commission
    recommended outpatient treatment, which indicates that the
    Commission considered Dillon’s risk to the public at large to
    be minimal. See D.C. CODE § 21-545(b)(2) (authorizing the
    D.C. Superior Court to commit a mentally ill person to “the
    Department or to any other facility, hospital, or mental health
    provider that the Court believes is the least restrictive
    alternative consistent with the best interests of the person and
    the public” (emphasis added)).
    Although Dillon asserts that his outpatient status will be
    revoked if and when he does not take his medication, Br. of
    Appellant at 26-27, the applicable statute makes clear that
    revocation of an individual’s outpatient status requires a
    judicial finding that “a more restrictive treatment alternative
    is required to prevent the person from injuring himself or
    others.” D.C. CODE § 21-548(a) (emphasis added). Simply
    put, Dillon’s outpatient civil commitment does not imply that
    civil confinement is probable, as there would have to be a
    judicial finding by clear and convincing evidence that his
    confinement is “required to prevent [Dillon] from injuring
    himself or others.” 
    Id. Furthermore, Dillon’s
    own assertions critically weaken
    his civil-confinement argument. Beginning with his
    opposition to the Government’s motion before the trial court,
    Dillon has consistently stated that he poses no significant
    danger to himself or others. See Def.’s Opp’n to Involuntary
    Medication at 6, reprinted in J.A. 17 (“Dillon has no history
    of violence . . . .”); Tr. of Oral Arg. (Apr. 26, 2013) at 32,
    reprinted in J.A. 231 (“Nobody thinks [Dillon is] particularly
    dangerous to himself or others . . . .”); Br. of Appellant at 18-
    19, 24, 27. Assuming that Dillon is correct that he presents, at
    most, a minimal risk to himself or others, this fact would
    18
    make it less likely that Dillon will be confined. See 18 U.S.C.
    § 4246(d) (authorizing civil confinement when a “court finds
    by clear and convincing evidence that the person is presently
    suffering from a mental disease or defect as a result of which
    his release would create a substantial risk of bodily injury to
    another person or serious damage to property of another”
    (emphasis added)); D.C. CODE § 21-545(b)(2) (“If the Court
    or jury finds that the person is mentally ill and, because of
    that mental illness, is likely to injure himself or others if not
    committed, the Court may order the person’s commitment to
    the Department or to any other facility, hospital, or mental
    health provider that the Court believes is the least restrictive
    alternative consistent with the best interests of the person and
    the public.” (emphasis added)).
    Dillon’s plain-error challenge thus fails for want of
    showing a “reasonable probability” that, but for the District
    Court’s failure to consider civil confinement, Dillon would
    not be subject to involuntary medication. The record before us
    does not offer a basis for finding that Dillon is dangerous
    enough to lead to his being civilly confined (as opposed to
    committed as an outpatient). See Br. of Appellant at 22
    (“Obviously, the level of appellant’s dangerousness was
    marginal; otherwise the D.C. Mental Health Commission
    would not have recommended commitment to an outpatient
    treatment program.”). And Dillon’s consistent claims that he
    is not dangerous undercut the notion that a better developed
    record would be any different.
    2.   Dillon’s Purported Non-dangerousness
    Dillon argues that he is not dangerous and that this fact
    undermines the Government’s interest in prosecuting him. He
    further argues that because the District Court “did not believe
    dangerousness should be considered at all, the matter should
    19
    be remanded for fact development.” Br. of Appellant at 21.
    Citing other circuits’ decisions finding that a defendant’s
    dangerousness is relevant, Dillon reasons that “if
    dangerousness bolsters the government’s interest under Sell,
    the lack thereof must have the opposite effect.” 
    Id. at 19-20
    (citing United States v. Mackey, 
    717 F.3d 569
    , 575 (8th Cir.
    2013); United States v. Ruiz-Gaxiola, 
    623 F.3d 684
    , 694 n.6
    (9th Cir. 2010); 
    Gomes, 387 F.3d at 160
    ). Dillon also presses
    the obvious point that if he was dangerous he would not have
    been civilly committed on an outpatient basis by the D.C.
    Mental Health Commission. 
    Id. at 22.
    We first dispose of the Government’s primary rejoinder
    to these arguments. The Government asserts that lack of
    dangerousness can never be considered to undermine the
    importance of the Government’s interest in prosecution
    because the Sell framework applies only after there has been a
    predicate determination that a defendant is not dangerous. Br.
    for Appellee at 34-39. That is, in the Government’s view, the
    Supreme Court’s suggestion that courts sequence Harper
    determinations before Sell determinations necessarily implies
    that all defendants who make it to a Sell hearing are, by
    definition, not dangers to society. On this view, then, the Sell
    framework admits consideration of dangerousness “in only
    two specific contexts”: (1) when assessing the likelihood of
    civil commitment and (2) when evaluating the “characteristics
    of the crime and whether the sentence for that crime reflects a
    legislative determination that persons who commit it typically
    present a serious risk to the safety of the community.” 
    Id. at 36-38
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    The Government’s argument misapprehends the nature of
    the Sell inquiry. The “result of [a] Harper hearing . . .
    establishes only that [a defendant] does not pose a danger to
    himself or others while confined in the institutional context.
    20
    [It does] not address whether [the defendant] might pose a
    danger to himself or others if released.” 
    Ruiz-Gaxiola, 623 F.3d at 694
    n.6 (citation omitted). It is simply incorrect, then,
    to say that a court must assume that any defendant who
    reaches the Sell inquiry poses no danger to society. It may be
    that some persons who pose a danger to themselves or others
    while confined might also pose a danger to themselves or
    others if released, but the latter does not necessarily follow
    from the former. The Government has cited no meaningful
    studies or other evidence to show that the two propensities are
    coterminous.
    More fundamentally, the Government seeks to impose a
    formalism and rigidity at odds with the sensitive balancing
    required by Sell in light of the significant liberty interests
    implicated by forcible medication. The Supreme Court crafted
    a sensitive and fact-specific inquiry, stating that “[c]ourts . . .
    must consider the facts of the individual case in evaluating the
    Government’s interest in 
    prosecution.” 539 U.S. at 180
    . And
    the examples the Court listed (pretrial and future civil
    confinement) are just that – examples. Id.; see also United
    States v. Grigsby, 
    712 F.3d 964
    , 969-70 (6th Cir. 2013);
    
    White, 620 F.3d at 412
    .
    At bottom, Dillon makes a common-sense argument: The
    dangerousness of a defendant surely may affect the strength
    of the governmental interest. This is indisputable. The
    Government has an interest in incapacitating individuals who
    endanger the public, see United States v. Weston, 
    255 F.3d 873
    , 880-82 (D.C. Cir. 2001), and thus its interest in a
    particular prosecution may be stronger in the case of a
    dangerous defendant than in a case that involves a defendant
    who is not dangerous. The simplicity of Dillon’s argument is
    attractive, but the argument is shortsighted. It is one thing to
    acknowledge that the Government often has a strong interest
    21
    in prosecuting persons who appear to be dangerous, but it is
    quite another to say that the Government’s interest in
    incapacitating a dangerous defendant is necessary to the
    Government’s interest qualifying as “important” under the
    first Sell factor. As we observed in Weston, a bundle of
    governmental interests are implicated in any given
    prosecution. Id.; cf. 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(2) (listing three
    purposes of sentencing distinct from the need to protect the
    public by incapacitating a defendant, including, e.g., the need
    for a sentence “to reflect the seriousness of the offense, to
    promote respect for the law, and to provide just punishment
    for the offense”).
    Dillon’s argument also fails to acknowledge that,
    although a defendant’s dangerousness may be relevant to the
    Government’s interest in prosecuting him, courts are
    necessarily constrained in their fact-finding by the nature of
    the charges for which a defendant has been indicted. This case
    is a perfect example. Dillon has been charged with a crime
    under 18 U.S.C. § 871 – “threat[ening] to take the life of, to
    kidnap, or to inflict bodily harm upon the President of the
    United States” – that is both serious and involves significant
    danger. To permit a Sell hearing to focus on the underlying
    criminal charges would risk converting the Sell inquiry into a
    mini-trial on the merits. In other words, in response to the
    Government’s request for authorization to medicate Dillon so
    that he is competent to stand trial, the District Court would be
    required to first adjudicate the merits of the indictment to
    assess Dillon’s dangerousness. This would make little sense.
    In these circumstances, this court is hard pressed to give
    credit to a claim that Dillon’s alleged lack of dangerousness is
    a special circumstance that meaningfully weighs against the
    Government’s interest in pursuing prosecution. Dillon has
    been charged with a serious and dangerous crime. The only
    22
    way to determine whether he is guilty beyond a reasonable
    doubt, and thus dangerous as charged, is to allow the
    Government to proceed with prosecution. However, Dillon is
    incompetent to stand trial sans medication, so we cannot
    determine his dangerousness until his competence has been
    restored and there has been a trial on the merits.
    We thus conclude that it is unnecessary to remand the
    case for further fact-finding with respect to Dillon’s purported
    non-dangerousness. The necessary implications of the
    indictment in this case preclude a finding that Dillon is
    harmless. The grand jury indicted Dillon for threatening to
    inflict bodily harm upon the President. Indictment, reprinted
    in J.A. 9-10. Even assuming that Dillon is harmless in other
    respects, the District Court could not find that Dillon poses no
    danger to the President without a full trial on the merits of the
    criminal charges. As a result, we hold that the District Court
    correctly concluded that the Government established an
    important interest in prosecuting Dillon.
    C. The District Court’s Remaining Findings
    Dillon also argues that the District Court’s findings are
    clearly erroneous. Br. of Appellant at 29-43. A trial court’s
    findings of fact are entitled to a presumption that they are
    correct, see Bose Corp. v. Consumers Union of U.S., Inc., 
    466 U.S. 485
    , 500 (1984), and we will displace them only if (1)
    the findings are “without substantial evidentiary support or
    . . . induced by an erroneous application of the law”; or if (2)
    “on the entire evidence [we are] left with the definite and firm
    conviction that a mistake has been committed.” Cuddy v.
    Carmen, 
    762 F.2d 119
    , 124 (D.C. Cir. 1985) (quotations and
    citations omitted). See generally EDWARDS, ELLIOTT & LEVY,
    supra, ch. II.
    23
    Dillon’s principal contention, it appears, is a two-step
    challenge to the District Court’s finding under the second Sell
    factor – i.e., that medication is substantially likely to restore
    his competency and substantially unlikely to have side effects
    that will interfere with his ability to assist in his defense. First,
    Dillon asserts that his diagnosis of Schizoaffective Disorder is
    erroneous and that he instead suffers from Delusional
    Disorder, as Dr. Ross opined. Br. of Appellant at 33-37, 42.
    Second, he argues that the success rate for treating Delusional
    Disorder is too low to warrant forced medication, i.e., that the
    medication is not substantially likely to restore his
    competency. 
    Id. at 38-41.
    We find no merit in either
    argument.
    The District Court reasonably credited the Grant-Volin
    diagnosis over the previous two because Drs. Grant and Volin
    observed Dillon for a longer period than did the other doctors,
    and because they had more information at their disposal. 
    2013 WL 1859289
    , at *8 n.13. None of the arguments raised by
    Dillon – including that the diagnostic criteria have changed –
    cause us to question the validity of Drs. Grant and Volin’s
    professional    judgment     that     Dillon    suffers   from
    Schizoaffective Disorder, Bipolar Type. To the contrary, there
    is ample evidence that Dillon is afflicted by a mood disorder,
    which offers a basis to diagnose Dillon with Schizoaffective
    Disorder instead of with Delusional Disorder. See, e.g., Tr. of
    Hr’g (Apr. 17, 2013) at 17, 21, 30, reprinted in J.A. 74, 78,
    87.
    Even if Dillon were correct that he suffers from
    Delusional Disorder, the District Court’s finding of a
    substantial likelihood of restored competency would not be
    clear error. The Cochrane Study found that 73.3% of
    defendants with Delusional Order were restored to
    competency. 
    Cochrane, supra, at 7
    tbl. 4, reprinted in J.A.
    24
    285. And, more importantly, the competency restoration study
    found that Dillon would respond well to antipsychotic
    medication in part because “his psychotic symptoms have
    responded favorably to medication in the past.” 
    2013 WL 1859289
    , at *5 (quoting Drs. Grant and Volin’s competency
    restoration study at 31).
    Finally, there is no merit to the claim that the District
    Court erred in finding that the medication was substantially
    unlikely to have side effects that would interfere with Dillon’s
    trial defense. This claim is based on Dillon’s testimony that
    medication he took during a prior hospitalization made him
    depressed. Br. of Appellant at 42 & n.18. But as the District
    Court observed, “Dr. Volin testified that any sadness or
    depression that defendant experienced was a symptom of his
    mental illness, not a side effect of antipsychotic medication.”
    
    2013 WL 1859289
    , at *6 (emphasis added) (citing Tr. of Hr’g
    (Apr. 17, 2013) at 86-88, reprinted in J.A. 143-45).
    III. CONCLUSION
    For the reasons stated above, we affirm the District
    Court’s order authorizing involuntary medication.