Roy Daniel v. Isaac Fulwood, Jr. ( 2014 )


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  • United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued February 7, 2014            Decided September 12, 2014
    No. 12-5327
    ROY A. DANIEL, ET AL.,
    APPELLANTS
    v.
    ISAAC FULWOOD, JR., CHAIRMAN OF THE UNITED STATES
    PAROLE COMMISSION, ET AL.,
    APPELLEES
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:10-cv-00862)
    Kenneth J. Pfaehler argued the cause for appellants. With
    him on the briefs was Deborah Golden.
    Alan Burch, Assistant U.S. Attorney, argued the cause for
    appellees. With him on the brief were Ronald C. Machen Jr.,
    U.S. Attorney, and R. Craig Lawrence, Assistant U.S. Attorney.
    Michelle Lo, Assistant U.S. Attorney, entered an appearance.
    Before: GARLAND, Chief Judge, SRINIVASAN, Circuit
    Judge, and SILBERMAN, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Chief Judge GARLAND.
    2
    GARLAND, Chief Judge: The plaintiffs in this case are
    prisoners who violated District of Columbia criminal laws
    before March 3, 1985. They contend that the United States
    Parole Commission contravened the Ex Post Facto Clause of the
    Constitution by retroactively applying parole guidelines that it
    issued in 2000, instead of applying the guidelines that were in
    place at the time of their offenses. The district court dismissed
    their complaint for failure to state a claim. Because the
    plaintiffs have plausibly alleged that the application of the 2000
    guidelines creates “a significant risk of prolonging [their]
    incarceration,” Garner v. Jones, 
    529 U.S. 244
    , 251 (2000), we
    reverse and remand for further proceedings.
    I
    At the time the plaintiffs committed their offenses, the
    District of Columbia Board of Parole made parole decisions for
    prisoners sentenced under the District of Columbia Code. Under
    the guidelines applicable at that time -- which had been issued
    in 1972 -- a prisoner became eligible for parole after serving the
    minimum sentence imposed by the sentencing court. 9 D.C.R.R.
    §§ 104.1, 105 (1972) (App. 379-456) (the “1972 Guidelines”);
    see D.C. Code § 24-203(a) (1973) (now § 24-403(a)); 
    id. § 24-
    204(a) (1973) (now § 24-404(a)). To guide the Board’s
    decisionmaking regarding whether and when to actually parole
    a prisoner, the guidelines listed a set of factors that included,
    “[a]mong others,” the nature of the prisoner’s offense, his prior
    criminal history, his personal and social history, and his
    institutional experience (including behavior in prison,
    involvement in academic and vocational programs, etc.). See 9
    D.C.R.R. § 105.1 (1972). The 1972 Guidelines contained no
    prescribed method for “translat[ing] the factors into a parole
    release date.” Phillips v. Fulwood, 
    616 F.3d 577
    , 579 (D.C. Cir.
    2010).
    3
    In 1987, the Board replaced the 1972 Guidelines with
    another regime. To determine whether a prisoner was suitable
    for parole, the 1987 Guidelines employed a system of points
    related to offender history, offense characteristics, and behavior
    while in prison. See D.C. MUN. REGS. tit. 28, § 204 (1987)
    (Appellants Br., Ex. 16) (the “1987 Guidelines”). The resulting
    point total determined whether parole would be granted, 
    id. § 204.19,
    although the Board could depart from the point
    calculation in “unusual circumstances,” 
    id. § 204.22.
    In 1997, Congress enacted the National Capital
    Revitalization and Self-Government Improvement Act, Pub. L.
    No. 105-33, 111 Stat. 712 (1997). The Act abolished the D.C.
    Board of Parole and directed the U.S. Parole Commission to
    conduct parole hearings for D.C. Code offenders. 
    Id. § 11231(a)-(c),
    111 Stat. at 745. In 2000, the Commission
    promulgated its own parole guidelines for those D.C. Code
    offenders who became eligible for parole on or after August 5,
    1998, including the plaintiffs in this case. 28 C.F.R. § 2.70 et
    seq. (the “2000 Guidelines”).
    The 2000 Guidelines establish a different point-based
    system, which adds a range of months, beyond the time a
    prisoner is eligible for parole, that must be served before he is
    regarded as suitable for parole. See 
    id. § 2.80(l).
    A District of
    Columbia prisoner is eligible for parole when he has served
    (with certain adjustments) the minimum sentence imposed by
    the sentencing court. See D.C. Code § 24-403(a) (formerly
    § 24-203(a)); 
    id. § 24-
    404(a) (formerly § 24-204(a)).1 Merely
    being eligible for parole, however, does not guarantee that a
    1
    See also D.C. Code §§ 24-221.01(b), 24-221.01a(b) (providing
    that educational and meritorious good time credits are applied to the
    minimum term of imprisonment to determine the date of eligibility for
    parole).
    4
    prisoner will actually be granted parole. Rather, once a prisoner
    is eligible, the Commission then determines whether he is
    suitable for release. See 28 C.F.R. § 2.73(b).
    Under the 2000 Guidelines, the first step in the suitability
    determination involves assigning points based on the prisoner’s
    risk of recidivism (his “salient factor score”),2 the presence of
    violence in his current or prior offenses, and whether the current
    offense involved the death of a victim or an otherwise high level
    of violence. 
    Id. §§ 2.20,
    2.80(c), (f). The sum of these points,
    called the prisoner’s “base point score,” corresponds to a range
    of months to be served by the prisoner, called his “base
    guideline range.” 
    Id. § 2.80(f),
    (h). That range of months is
    added to the number of months until the prisoner’s parole
    eligibility date, and adjusted upward for “significant disciplinary
    infractions” and downward for “superior program achievement.”
    
    Id. § 2.80(j)-(l).
    This calculation produces the prisoner’s “total guideline
    range” for his initial parole hearing: the total range of time the
    prisoner must presumptively serve before he is suitable for
    parole. 
    Id. § 2.80(l);
    see 
    id. § 2.80(b);
    Phillips, 616 F.3d at 579
    .
    At subsequent reconsideration hearings, the Commission
    “[a]dd[s] together the . . . Total Guideline Range from the
    previous hearing, and the . . . guideline range for [any]
    disciplinary infractions since the previous hearing,” and “[t]hen
    subtract[s] [any] award for superior program achievement.” 
    Id. § 2.80(m).
    Although the Commission may “grant or deny parole
    to a prisoner notwithstanding the guidelines,” it may do so only
    in “unusual circumstances.” 
    Id. § 2.80(n)(1).
    2
    The salient factor score is based on such factors as the number
    of the prisoner’s prior convictions, the number of his prior
    commitments to facilities, and his age at the commencement of his
    prior offenses and commitments. See 28 C.F.R. § 2.20.
    5
    Plaintiffs Abdus-Shahid Ali, Percy Jeter, and William Terry
    were all convicted for conduct during the period in which the
    1972 Guidelines were in effect. Compl. ¶¶ 14, 16, 17. By the
    time they became eligible for parole, however, the 2000
    Guidelines were in place. Based on those guidelines, at Ali’s
    initial parole hearing the Commission calculated (after
    correcting for errors) that he had to serve an additional 98-128
    months beyond his minimum sentence before he would be
    suitable for parole. See 
    id. ¶¶ 240-41,
    248-50. At Jeter’s initial
    hearing, the Commission calculated that he had to serve an
    additional 72-120 months beyond his minimum sentence. See
    
    id. ¶¶ 211-12.
    And at Terry’s first hearing under the 2000
    Guidelines, the Commission calculated that he had to serve an
    additional 156-222 months. See 
    id. ¶¶ 276-77.3
    At subsequent
    reconsideration hearings, the Commission added a number of
    months to the maximum (but not to the minimum) of Jeter’s
    total guideline range. 
    Id. ¶¶ 216,
    220. The Commission found
    no “unusual circumstances” in any of the three prisoners’ initial
    or subsequent hearings and declined to depart downward from
    the ranges of months calculated under the guidelines. 
    Id. ¶¶ 213,
    217, 221, 251, 274, 280, 286.
    On May 25, 2010, plaintiffs Jeter, Ali, and Terry filed a
    class action complaint against the Commissioners of the U.S.
    Parole Commission, alleging that they have subjected the
    plaintiffs and the class they represent to retroactively increased
    incarceration, in violation of the Ex Post Facto Clause of the
    3
    Because the Commission developed its approach in a series of
    regulations between 1998 and 2000, it conducted Terry’s initial parole
    hearing under a hybrid regime that incorporated some but not all
    provisions of the 2000 Guidelines. See Compl. ¶¶ 72-75, 263, 270-75;
    Commissioners Br. 11-12. The differences are immaterial for
    purposes of the disposition we reach in this opinion.
    6
    Constitution.4 The alleged class consists of persons currently
    incarcerated for violations of the D.C. Code committed before
    March 3, 1985, and whose first parole hearings occurred on or
    after August 5, 1998. Compl. ¶ 10. The complaint alleges that
    the Commission has conducted parole hearings for this class
    under the 2000 Guidelines, rather than under the 1972
    Guidelines that were in effect when the class members
    committed their offenses. 
    Id. The plaintiffs
    contend that the
    retroactive application of the 2000 Guidelines has exposed them
    to a significant risk of prolonged incarceration.
    On September 30, 2011, before any discovery was taken
    and without reaching the class certification issues, the district
    court granted the defendants’ motion to dismiss the complaint
    for failure to state a claim, pursuant to Federal Rule of Civil
    Procedure 12(b)(6). Thereafter, the plaintiffs filed a timely
    notice of appeal.
    II
    We review de novo a district court’s dismissal of a
    complaint for failure to state a claim. Kassem v. Wash. Hosp.
    Ctr., 
    513 F.3d 251
    , 253 (D.C. Cir. 2008). “To survive a motion
    to dismiss, a complaint must contain sufficient factual matter,
    accepted as true, to ‘state a claim to relief that is plausible on its
    face.’” Ashcroft v. Iqbal, 
    556 U.S. 662
    , 678 (2009) (quoting
    Bell Atl. Corp. v. Twombly, 
    550 U.S. 544
    , 570 (2007)). “A
    4
    Three other prisoners filed along with the plaintiffs: Roy A.
    Daniel, Alfonso Taylor, and Harold Venable. Each has since been
    paroled. Commissioners Br. 1. The Commissioners’ brief states that
    the Commission has set an “effective parole date” for Jeter of July 23,
    2014. 
    Id. The parties
    have not advised the court whether he has in
    fact been paroled. According to the Commissioners, the “effective
    parole dates” for Terry and Ali are not until 2015. 
    Id. 7 claim
    has facial plausibility when the plaintiff pleads factual
    content that allows the court to draw the reasonable inference
    that the defendant is liable for the misconduct alleged.” 
    Iqbal, 556 U.S. at 678
    . “When there are well-pleaded factual
    allegations, a court should assume their veracity and then
    determine whether they plausibly give rise to an entitlement to
    relief.” 
    Id. at 679.
    The Constitution provides that “No . . . ex post facto Law
    shall be passed.” U.S. Const. art. I, § 9, cl. 3. In order to prevail
    on the merits of an ex post facto claim with regard to parole
    guidelines, a plaintiff must show that retroactive application of
    the new guidelines “creates a significant risk of prolonging [his]
    incarceration” as compared to application of the prior
    guidelines. Fletcher v. Reilly, 
    433 F.3d 867
    , 877 (D.C. Cir.
    2006) (quoting 
    Garner, 529 U.S. at 251
    ) (internal quotation
    marks omitted).5
    The Commissioners maintain that “the comparisons [the
    plaintiffs] attempt between the current parole schemes and the
    1972 DC Regulations are hopelessly indeterminate in light of
    the fundamentally different methodologies of the old and new
    systems, as well as the broad discretion available under both.”
    Commissioners Br. 3. Comparison is effectively impossible, the
    defendants argue, because of “the broad discretion available
    under the 1972 DC Regulations, and the narrower but still
    relevant discretion available to the Commission under the 2000
    Guidelines.” 
    Id. at 26.
    The Supreme Court has made clear,
    however, that although “[w]hether retroactive application of a
    5
    The Commissioners contend that parole guidelines are not
    “laws” subject to the Ex Post Facto Clause. As they acknowledge, this
    circuit has rejected that argument. See Commissioners Br. 40-41
    (citing Fletcher v. District of Columbia, 
    391 F.3d 250
    , 251 (D.C. Cir.
    2004)); see also Fletcher v. 
    Reilly, 433 F.3d at 876-77
    .
    8
    particular change in parole law respects the prohibition on ex
    post facto legislation is often a question of particular difficulty
    when the discretion vested in a parole board is taken into
    account,” 
    Garner, 529 U.S. at 250
    , the “presence of discretion
    does not displace the protections of the Ex Post Facto Clause,”
    
    id. at 253.
    As we said in United States v. Turner, “under the law
    of this circuit the existence of discretion does not foreclose an ex
    post facto claim.” 
    548 F.3d 1094
    , 1100 (D.C. Cir. 2008) (citing
    
    Fletcher, 433 F.3d at 876
    ).
    An inmate may establish the requisite risk of increased
    incarceration in two ways. See 
    Fletcher, 433 F.3d at 877
    . First,
    he may demonstrate that the new regulation “by its own terms
    show[s] a significant risk” of prolonging his incarceration.
    
    Garner, 529 U.S. at 255
    . Second, he may “demonstrate, by
    evidence drawn from the rule’s practical implementation by the
    agency charged with exercising discretion, that its retroactive
    application will result in a longer period of incarceration than
    under the earlier rule.” Id.; see 
    Fletcher, 433 F.3d at 877
    . At
    the motion to dismiss stage, of course, a plaintiff need only
    show that his ex post facto claim -- like any other claim -- is
    “plausible.” 
    Iqbal, 556 U.S. at 678
    .
    A
    The plaintiffs’ strongest argument in support of their ex post
    facto claim is that the 2000 Guidelines create a presumption of
    a long period of extended incarceration in their cases, while the
    1972 Guidelines would not have done so. As described in Part
    I above, the 2000 Guidelines employ a number of specific
    factors and adjustments to generate a range of months that is
    added to the number of months remaining until the date the
    prisoner will have served his minimum sentence (his parole
    eligibility date), thus generating a total range of months that the
    prisoner must presumptively serve before he should be paroled
    9
    (his parole suitability date). See 28 C.F.R. § 2.80(l) (instructions
    for determining total guideline range). Under 28 C.F.R.
    § 2.80(n), the presumption holds unless “unusual circumstances”
    warrant departure from the prisoner’s total guideline range.6
    Misconstruing the plaintiffs’ presumption argument, the
    Commissioners contend that § 2.80(n) does not create a
    presumption because it permits but does not require the
    Commission to depart upward from the guideline range in
    unusual circumstances. Commissioners Br. 38-39. The
    plaintiffs’ argument, however, is that both upward and
    downward departures from the guidelines require a showing of
    “unusual” circumstances. See 28 C.F.R. § 2.80(n)(1). This, they
    explain, effectively creates a presumption that, in the usual case,
    the guideline range will govern a prisoner’s period of parole
    unsuitability.
    With respect to their specific circumstances, plaintiffs Ali,
    Jeter, and Terry allege that the Commission’s actual application
    of the 2000 Guidelines to their cases generated guideline ranges
    that presumptively required them to serve additional time,
    beyond the point of parole eligibility, in the amounts of 98-128
    months, 72-120 months, and 156-222 months, respectively. See
    6
    See 28 C.F.R. § 2.80(b) (“In determining whether an eligible
    prisoner should be paroled, the Commission shall apply the guidelines
    set forth in this section. . . . Decisions outside the guidelines may be
    made, where warranted, pursuant to paragraph (n) of this section.”);
    
    id. § 2.80(n)(1)
    (“The Commission may, in unusual circumstances,
    grant or deny parole to a prisoner notwithstanding the guidelines. . . .
    In such cases, the Commission shall specify in the notice of action the
    specific factors that it relied on in departing from the applicable
    guideline or guideline range.”); see also Sellmon v. Reilly, 551 F.
    Supp. 2d 66, 73 (D.D.C. 2008) (“Until a parole candidate has served
    a period of time equal to the bottom of his total guideline range, the
    candidate is presumed to be unsuitable for parole.”).
    10
    Compl. ¶¶ 211-12, 240-41, 248-50, 276-77. They further allege
    that the Commission found no “unusual circumstances”
    warranting downward departures from those guideline ranges.
    
    Id. ¶¶ 213,
    217, 221, 251, 274, 280, 286. These are factual
    allegations that a court must accept for purposes of reviewing a
    motion to dismiss under Rule 12(b)(6). See 
    Iqbal, 556 U.S. at 679
    . The Commissioners do not contest them.
    It may be that the factors that led the Commission to add
    time to the plaintiffs’ periods of incarceration under the 2000
    Guidelines are factors that the D.C. Board of Parole could also
    have considered under the 1972 Guidelines. Under the text of
    the 1972 Guidelines, however, there would not have been a
    presumption that the plaintiffs should serve significantly more
    time than their minimum sentences. See 9 D.C.R.R. §§ 105,
    105.1 (1972); see also D.C. Code § 24-204 (1973). It is
    appropriate, in assessing the risk of increased punishment
    created by a subsequent parole system’s implementation, to
    consider a parole board’s written policies. As the Supreme
    Court said in Garner, “[a]bsent a demonstration to the contrary,
    we presume the Board follows its statutory commands and
    internal policies in fulfilling its 
    obligations.” 529 U.S. at 256
    .
    And we think it reasonable to infer that the presumption of
    extended unsuitability contained in the 2000 Guidelines would
    prolong a prisoner’s period of incarceration as compared to the
    1972 Guidelines -- in which no such presumption existed -- even
    if the same factors could have been considered under the earlier
    regime.7
    7
    Cf. 
    Fletcher, 433 F.3d at 879
    (concluding that “facial
    distinctions between the Board’s [1987] regulations and the [2000]
    federal regulations” regarding reparole “made out a prima facie case
    that [the prisoner’s] rights under the Ex Post Facto Clause have been
    violated” and were “sufficient to warrant factual development on his
    habeas petition”).
    11
    Our focus on the effect of a presumption is consistent with
    the analysis the Supreme Court employed, in Miller v. Florida,
    in concluding that the application of revised sentencing
    guidelines to a petitioner who committed his offense before the
    revised guidelines’ effective date violated the Ex Post Facto
    Clause. See 
    482 U.S. 423
    (1987). Under the Florida guidelines
    in effect when Miller committed his offense, the “presumptive
    sentence” was 3.5 to 4.5 years’ imprisonment. 
    Id. at 424.
    Under the revised guidelines, the presumptive sentencing range
    was 5.5 to 7 years’ imprisonment. 
    Id. The Court
    held that the
    revised guidelines violated the Ex Post Facto Clause because
    Miller had been “substantially disadvantaged” by their
    application. 
    Id. at 432.8
    As we subsequently explained in
    applying Miller to post-offense revisions of the U.S. Sentencing
    Guidelines, “[i]t was no answer to say that the defendant might
    have received the same sentence under the old version of the
    guidelines. While the Florida trial court was not bound to give
    the presumptive sentence, the court’s discretion to give a
    different sentence was quite limited, and so as a practical matter
    the change in the guidelines increased the defendant’s sentence.”
    
    Turner, 548 F.3d at 1099
    (citations omitted).9
    8
    In Peugh v. United States, the Supreme Court confirmed that
    “the result in Miller remains sound” -- notwithstanding that it
    “employed a ‘substantial disadvantage’ test that th[e] Court has since
    abandoned” in favor of asking “whether the change in law creates a
    ‘sufficient’ or ‘significant’ risk of increasing the punishment for a
    given crime.” 
    133 S. Ct. 2072
    , 2083 n.4 (2013) (quoting 
    Garner, 529 U.S. at 250
    -51).
    9
    The presumptive effect of the Florida guidelines was generated
    by the requirement that, if a “court wished to depart from the
    guidelines range, . . . it was required to give ‘clear and convincing
    reasons in writing for doing so,’” and a non-guidelines sentence was
    subject to appellate review. 
    Peugh, 133 S. Ct. at 2082
    (quoting 
    Miller, 482 U.S. at 426
    ). In Miller, the government’s contention was that the
    12
    As the Supreme Court held just last year, “Miller thus
    establishes that applying amended sentencing guidelines that
    increase a defendant’s recommended sentence can violate the Ex
    Post Facto Clause, notwithstanding the fact that sentencing
    courts possess discretion to deviate from the recommended
    sentencing range.” Peugh v. United States, 
    133 S. Ct. 2072
    ,
    2082 (2013). So, too, here. Under the 1972 Guidelines, the
    plaintiffs were not subject to any recommended period of parole
    unsuitability at all, and they could have been paroled
    immediately upon serving their minimum sentences. See D.C.
    Code §§ 24-203(a), 24-204(a) (1973); 9 D.C.R.R. §§ 104.1, 105
    (1972). Under the 2000 Guidelines, by contrast, they are
    subject to guideline ranges that far exceed those minimum
    sentences. Once again, it is “no answer to say that the
    [plaintiffs] might have received the same sentence[s] under the
    old version of the guidelines.” 
    Turner, 548 F.3d at 1099
    .
    Although the Board could have imposed the same periods of
    incarceration under the 1972 Guidelines, there was no
    presumption that it do so. And while the Commission “was not
    plaintiff could not show that his sentence under the new guidelines
    was longer than it would have been under the old ones because a judge
    could have imposed the same sentence by departing upward from the
    old guidelines. 
    See 482 U.S. at 432
    . The Court rejected that argument
    because “the sentencing judge would have to [have] provide[d] clear
    and convincing reasons in writing” to impose the longer sentence
    under the old guidelines, while he would not have to do so under the
    new guidelines. 
    Id. at 432-33.
    In this case, the government makes an
    argument from the opposite direction: that under the 2000 Guidelines
    the Commission has the same discretion to impose a shorter
    unsuitability period as it did under the 1972 Guidelines because it can
    depart downward from the new guidelines in “unusual circumstances.”
    (As in Miller, the Commission must specify the reasons for a guideline
    departure in writing. See 28 C.F.R. § 2.80(n)(1).) The direction of the
    required departure makes no material difference in the relative
    persuasiveness of these arguments.
    13
    bound” to impose the presumptive ranges under the 2000
    Guidelines, 
    id., its discretion
    to depart was limited, see 28
    C.F.R. § 2.80(n). Hence, it is more than plausible that the
    change in parole regimes increased the prisoners’ periods of
    incarceration. Consequently, the plaintiffs’ ex post facto claim
    should not have been dismissed.
    B
    The plaintiffs press a number of additional arguments in
    support of their contention that the 2000 Guidelines create a
    significant risk of prolonged incarceration as compared to the
    1972 Guidelines. Although we briefly note some of them here,
    we do not need to resolve their merits because the considerations
    that we have addressed in Part II.A are sufficient to require
    reversal of the dismissal of the complaint.
    First, the plaintiffs argue that the 2000 Guidelines do not
    take into account several factors that the 1972 Guidelines
    considered and that would favor their earlier release. Compl.
    ¶¶ 101-13. Those include “rehabilitative efforts, institutional
    behavior, [and] self-improvement efforts” while in prison that
    did not rise to the level of “superior” efforts. 
    Id. ¶ 106;
    see 9
    D.C.R.R. § 105.1(e) (1972). They also include mitigating
    circumstances surrounding their criminal conduct, as well as
    community resources available to the parolee upon release.
    Compl. ¶ 113; see 9 D.C.R.R. § 105.1(a), (f). These factors are
    not expressly accounted for in the 2000 Guidelines’ calculation
    of the range of months to be served before parole suitability.
    See 28 C.F.R. §§ 2.20, 2.80; see also 
    id. § 2.80(k),
    (l)(1)
    (providing a subtraction only for “superior” program
    achievement). By contrast, they are expressly listed among the
    “factors considered” in the 1972 Guidelines. See 9 D.C.R.R.
    § 105.1(a) (mitigating or aggravating circumstances surrounding
    the offense); 
    id. § 105.1(e)
    (“efforts put forth” in institutional
    14
    programs, without a limitation to “superior” efforts); 
    id. § 105.1(f)
    (available community resources). The plaintiffs
    allege that each of these factors would apply to their individual
    cases. See Compl. ¶¶ 223-26, 231-32, 253-57, 260-61, 288-92,
    295-99.
    It is true that, after the Commission calculates the range of
    months required before a prisoner is deemed suitable for parole,
    the 2000 Guidelines authorize it to consider “case-specific
    factors that are not fully taken into account in the guidelines.”
    28 C.F.R. § 2.80(n)(1). The factors to which the plaintiffs point
    could certainly be considered at that stage. See 
    id. § 2.80(n)(2).
    But, once again, the Commission may utilize such factors to
    depart downward from a prisoner’s guideline range only in
    “unusual circumstances,” 
    id. § 2.80(n)(1)
    , creating a
    presumption against consideration of those factors that did not
    exist under the 1972 Guidelines. Hence, this argument may
    further support the plausibility of the plaintiffs’ claim that
    application of the 2000 Guidelines increases their risk of
    prolonged incarceration.
    Second, the plaintiffs argue that their claim of a significant
    risk of prolonged incarceration is even stronger than would
    appear on the face of the 2000 Guidelines because in practice
    the Commission “almost never” exercises its discretion to depart
    downward -- that is, it almost never finds unusual
    circumstances. Compl. ¶ 69. If true, that would render the
    Guidelines’ presumption virtually irrebuttable, and such a
    presumption would suggest an even greater risk of
    comparatively longer incarceration.
    Finally, the plaintiffs contend that their ex post facto claim
    is also buttressed by comparing the 2000 Guidelines with
    guidelines the Board adopted in 1987. Rather than merely
    listing factors to be taken into account in the Board’s discretion
    15
    -- as was the case for the 1972 Guidelines -- the 1987 Guidelines
    utilized a point system to determine whether a prisoner was
    suitable for parole. See D.C. MUN. REGS. tit. 28, § 204 (1987).
    The plaintiffs’ complaint alleges that, although different in form,
    the 1987 Guidelines were intended merely to articulate the
    practices, policies, and procedures that the Board had actually
    followed under the 1972 Guidelines. Compl. ¶ 37. On appeal,
    they maintain that the two regimes were “substantively the
    same,” and that, as a consequence, the court can use the 1987
    Guidelines as a “meaningful predictor” of results under the 1972
    Guidelines. See Appellants Br. 21-22. They further allege that
    a comparison of the 1987 and 2000 Guidelines makes the
    relative risk of longer incarceration under the latter even clearer.
    We need not resolve this argument either, because -- as we
    have held above -- a direct comparison of the 1972 and 2000
    Guidelines renders the plaintiffs’ ex post facto claim sufficiently
    plausible to survive a motion to dismiss. The argument based on
    the 1987 Guidelines, like the others addressed in this subpart,
    can be examined on remand to determine whether it further
    supports the plaintiffs’ claim. In that regard, we note that the
    Third Circuit, in a case involving a habeas petitioner convicted
    in the District of Columbia and incarcerated within that circuit,
    did rely on the 1987 Guidelines as reflective of practice under
    the 1972 Guidelines. Employing the 1987 Guidelines in that
    fashion, the court concluded that the petitioner had made out a
    prima facie ex post facto challenge to the application of the 2000
    Guidelines in his case. See Brown v. Williamson, 314 F. App’x
    492, 497 (3d Cir. 2009); see also Puifory v. Reilly, No. 3:08-CV-
    982, 
    2009 WL 839354
    , at *6-7 (M.D. Pa. Mar. 30, 2009) (same).
    C
    The Commissioners maintain that, whatever the merits of
    the plaintiffs’ claims, they are moot and therefore nonjusticiable.
    16
    They contend that, although the “base point score” generated by
    the 2000 Guidelines “results in [a] potentially longer period of
    time before an inmate first becomes eligible for parole[,] . . . .
    [e]ach of the Prisoners has become eligible for parole, as shown
    by the fact that each has had parole hearings.” Commissioners
    Br. 37-38. This, the Commissioners maintain, rendered the
    prisoners’ claims of presumptively longer incarceration moot.
    
    Id. The Commissioners’
    argument both conflates the meaning
    of parole “eligibility” and parole “suitability,” and ignores the
    impact of the 2000 Guidelines on both initial and subsequent
    parole hearings. As we explained above, a D.C. prisoner
    becomes eligible for parole when (with certain adjustments) he
    has served his minimum sentence. See D.C. Code §§ 24-403(a),
    24-404(a). The “base point score” and other elements of a
    prisoner’s “total guideline range” do not extend the period of
    time before an inmate first becomes eligible for parole, but
    rather the period before he becomes suitable for parole -- i.e.,
    when “an eligible prisoner should be paroled.” 28 C.F.R.
    § 2.80(b) (emphasis added); see 
    id. §§ 2.73(b),
    2.80(i).
    Nor does the impact of the prisoner’s total guideline range
    on his parole suitability dissipate once he has had his first parole
    hearing. At any subsequent (“reconsideration”) hearing, the
    prisoner’s total guideline range for that hearing is calculated by
    “add[ing] together the . . . Total Guideline Range from the
    previous hearing, and the . . . guideline range for [any]
    disciplinary infractions since the previous hearing,” and “[t]hen
    subtract[ing] [any] award for superior program achievement.”
    
    Id. § 2.80(m).
    Accordingly, the plaintiffs’ claims did not
    become moot simply because they received initial parole
    hearings under the 2000 Guidelines.
    17
    III
    The text of the 2000 Guidelines and the plaintiffs’ factual
    allegations regarding the application of those guidelines in their
    cases indicate that they are subject to a long presumptive period
    of parole unsuitability that would not have applied to them under
    the 1972 Guidelines. This gives rise to a reasonable inference
    that the 2000 Guidelines create a significant risk of prolonging
    their incarceration in comparison to the 1972 Guidelines.
    Accordingly, the plaintiffs have raised a plausible claim that the
    application of the later guidelines to their cases violates the Ex
    Post Facto Clause. We must therefore reverse the dismissal of
    the complaint and remand the case for further proceedings.
    Because this case comes to us as an appeal from the
    dismissal of a complaint, the only question before us is the one
    we have answered in the affirmative: Have the plaintiffs stated
    an ex post facto claim that is plausible? We therefore have no
    occasion to consider what additional evidence -- if any -- beyond
    the facial differences between the 2000 and 1972 Guidelines the
    plaintiffs must develop on remand to prove their claim. Nor do
    we have occasion to consider what evidence the Commissioners
    must marshal in defense of their retroactive application of the
    2000 Guidelines. As is appropriate, we leave those issues for
    consideration, in the first instance, by the district court.
    Reversed and remanded.