United States v. Dennis Butler ( 2020 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued November 7, 2018               Decided April 14, 2020
    No. 17-3080
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    APPELLEE
    v.
    DENNIS T. BUTLER,
    APPELLANT
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:70-cr-01717-1)
    Jenna M. Cobb argued the cause for appellant. With her
    on the briefs were Jonathan W. Anderson and Adam G.
    Thompson.
    Patricia A. Heffernan, Assistant U.S. Attorney, argued the
    cause for appellee. With her on the brief were Jessie K. Liu,
    U.S. Attorney, and Elizabeth Trosman, John P. Mannarino,
    and Pamela S. Satterfield, Assistant U.S. Attorneys.
    2
    Before: SRINIVASAN, Chief Judge, and PILLARD, and
    KATSAS, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Chief Judge SRINIVASAN .
    Dissenting opinion filed by Circuit Judge KATSAS.
    SRINIVASAN, Chief Judge: Almost fifty years ago,
    appellant Dennis Butler was convicted of murder. At his trial,
    an FBI forensic expert testified that hairs found on the victim
    were microscopically identical to Butler’s hair.           The
    government recently acknowledged, though, that hair evidence
    of the kind introduced against Butler was false and exceeded
    the limits of science, and that the prosecution knew or should
    have known as much at the time of his trial.
    Butler brought a motion to set aside his conviction and
    vacate his sentence based on the government’s admission that
    it had used false evidence against him. We examine a single
    question: whether the false hair evidence presented by the
    government was material. The district court found the
    evidence immaterial. In our view, however, there is a
    reasonable likelihood that the false hair evidence introduced
    against Butler could have affected the jury’s verdict. We thus
    reverse the judgment of the district court.
    I.
    A.
    For decades, the FBI Laboratory employed a form of
    forensic analysis dubbed “hair microscopy.” Hair microscopy
    called for forensic examiners to conduct side-by-side,
    microscopic comparisons of hair samples in an effort to
    ascertain whether hairs from a crime scene matched hairs from
    3
    a suspect. The government used ostensible matches at trial as
    scientific evidence linking defendants to crimes.
    There was, however, a significant problem with that field
    of analysis: science had not validated its foundational
    premises. Existing studies failed to support a trained
    examiner’s ability to identify a “match” based on any objective
    system of visual hair comparison or to validly estimate the
    frequency of hair characteristics (and therefore of matches) in
    the general population.
    Although those limitations were long known to the
    government, prosecutors continued to rely on hair evidence at
    trial. By 2009, however, multiple developments spurred the
    government to reassess its position on the evidentiary
    reliability of hair microscopy. First, the National Academy of
    Sciences published a groundbreaking report critical of the
    practice. The report confirmed that “[n]o scientifically
    accepted statistics exist about the frequency with which
    particular characteristics of hair are distributed in the
    population,” and noted the absence of any uniform standards
    for identifying how many characteristics must be shared
    between two hairs before they can be called a “match.” Nat’l
    Research Council, Strengthening Forensic Science in the
    United States: A Path Forward 160 (2009). Additionally, DNA
    testing exonerated several men who had been convicted using
    hair evidence, some of whom had been imprisoned for decades.
    Those events prompted the federal government to
    undertake its largest postconviction review in history.
    Working in tandem with defendants’ rights groups, the
    government audited thousands of convictions from the pre-
    2000 period to identify cases in which the government made
    use of false hair evidence. This is one of the identified cases.
    4
    B.
    On September 30, 1970, appellant Butler was arrested for
    the murder of Jesse Mears. The previous day, police had
    discovered Mears’s body in an apartment building Mears
    managed in Northeast Washington D.C. The victim was found
    in a vacant apartment’s bathroom with toilet paper and a
    stocking stuffed in his mouth, both “soggy” wet with a clear
    liquid. Trial Tr. 36, July 8, 1971, S.A. 8. His hands were
    bound, a telephone cord was wrapped around his neck, and his
    keys were missing. The police found a soda bottle near his
    body filled with water, a paint pan in the kitchen sink, and a
    belt split into two pieces in the kitchen. The cause of death was
    determined to be “asphyxiation secondary to garroting.” Trial
    Tr. 38, July 8, 1971, S.A. 10.
    The prosecution’s lead witnesses were James Hill and
    Phyllis Gail Robinson. On direct examination, Hill testified
    that he had known Butler for several years, and had called
    Butler at around 3:00 or 3:30PM on the day of the murder.
    When Butler came to the phone “he sounded like he was out of
    breath.” Trial Tr. 66, July 8, 1971, A.A. 181. Hill said that he
    asked where Butler had been, and Butler, according to Hill,
    volunteered that “he had just killed the rent man”—i.e., Jesse
    Mears. Id. at 67, A.A. 182. Butler said that the “rent man” had
    “caught [Butler] selling narcotics to two boys,” and that, in an
    ensuing struggle, Butler attempted to strangle Mears with a belt
    but used a telephone cord after the belt broke. Id. Hill testified
    that Butler then said he had poured water down the victim’s
    throat “to make sure that he was dead.” Id.
    Hill further testified that Butler came to Hill’s house later
    that day, around 4:00PM. Robinson, who was then dating Hill,
    joined them at the house sometime later. According to Hill’s
    testimony, Hill asked Butler whether Hill could share the story
    5
    with Robinson. Butler agreed, and Hill told Robinson that
    Butler had just killed a man. Butler then recounted some of the
    details of the crime to Robinson.
    Hill related that, the following day, police officers came to
    his house, asked if he knew anything about a pair of keys, and
    searched under his mattress. Later, at the police station, Hill
    gave a statement to police officers describing the previous
    day’s events. Hill testified that Robinson was also at the
    station but was separated from Hill. He said that he did not
    overhear the officers say anything to Robinson and that he had
    not been threatened by the officers.
    Robinson’s testimony about the day of the murder tracked
    Hill’s in material respects. She admitted that, initially, she had
    told the police that her knowledge of the murder came from
    Hill rather than Butler. But after a police officer informed her
    that her statement was inconsistent with Hill’s in that regard,
    she revised the story and said that Butler had told her.
    Robinson testified that her original statement had been a lie
    fueled by fear because, in her words, she “had never been in no
    trouble.” Trial Tr. 263, July 9, 1971, S.A. 176.
    To rebut the government’s evidence, the defense attacked
    the couple’s credibility. Both witnesses prevaricated about
    their drug use in their trial testimony. Hill originally denied
    having a specific reason for calling Butler the day of the murder
    and claimed that the two of them had discussed nothing other
    than the murder. But later, Hill admitted he had called Butler
    to obtain narcotics and had used heroin with Butler before
    Robinson arrived.
    Hill was also unable to deliver a consistent narrative about
    his drug use after the murder. At one point, he testified that he
    had stopped using heroin seven or eight months before the trial.
    But at another point, he claimed he had stopped using narcotics
    6
    about one year before the trial. When the defense noted that a
    one-year period would have been before the September
    murder—and thus before a day on which Hill had already
    admitted to using heroin—he nonetheless insisted that it had
    been “about a year,” before ultimately conceding it could have
    been “less than a year.” Trial Tr. 112–113, July 8, 1971, A.A.
    227–228.
    Additionally, Hill testified that Robinson had snorted
    heroin the day of the murder while the three were together at
    the house. But he also stated that Robinson only used heroin
    on weekends. When the defense noted that the day of the
    murder was a Tuesday, he revised his earlier testimony and said
    that he did not remember whether she had snorted heroin that
    day. Hill also admitted that he may have given inconsistent
    statements to defense lawyers about what he had overheard at
    the police station and whether officers had threatened him with
    criminal liability.
    For her part, Robinson, like Hill, gave contradictory
    testimony about her drug use. At first, she testified that she
    only took heroin on weekends. But she was forced to renege
    and acknowledge she had taken heroin on the Tuesday of the
    murder. And like Hill, Robinson had given inconsistent
    statements on a question in dispute at trial: who (Hill or Butler)
    had told her about the murder.
    The government responded by introducing an array of
    corroborating evidence. Several witnesses testified to having
    seen Butler on the day of the crime near the apartment building.
    A witness testified to seeing Butler and the victim working
    side-by-side on a car together around 1:00PM in front of the
    building. An acquaintance of Butler’s testified that he had seen
    Butler walking toward the area of the building between 2:00
    and 3:00PM. And several witnesses testified that they found
    7
    the victim’s stolen key ring after it was thrown from the roof of
    a building near Butler’s girlfriend’s house.
    Of the sixteen fingerprint impressions recovered from the
    crime scene, none belonged to Butler. But the government
    presented two other kinds of forensic evidence at trial. First, a
    government expert testified that paint found on the victim’s
    clothing, on the soda bottle at the crime scene, and on the
    defendant’s pants, all could have come from the same source
    based on their type, texture, and color, and were likely wet
    when applied.
    Second, and of particular relevance, the forensic expert
    testified in detail about hair samples found on the victim’s
    clothing, including his jacket, shirt, and pants. The expert
    described a “direct microscopic comparison test” he had
    conducted, comparing the hairs from the victim’s clothing to
    sample hairs from Butler. Trial Tr. 527, July 13, 1971, S.A.
    349. The expert explained he had considered sixteen features
    of the hair, describing some of the features as “very important”
    or “very distinct” identifying characteristics. Id. at 529, S.A.
    351. The two sets of hairs, according to the expert, “match[ed]
    in all microscopic characteristics,” and were thus
    “microscopically the same or alike.” Id. at 528–30, S.A. 350–
    52. Later, the prosecutor asked whether the expert was saying
    that the hairs from the victim’s clothing were “only similar” to
    Butler’s. Id. at 535, S.A. 357. The expert responded, “No, I
    am not. When you imply that something is similar, you are
    implying that it is also different in some respects. My report
    and my testimony is that these hairs are the same. They are
    alike in all identifiable microscopic characteristics.” Id.
    The expert gave somewhat varying testimony about the
    significance of that finding. At one point, he noted that “hairs
    do not contain enough identifying characteristics to be
    8
    positively identified as originating from a certain head of a
    certain individual to the exclusion of all other individuals in
    this race group.” Id. at 530, S.A. 352. But he then stated that
    the hairs he had examined “are the same or alike in all the
    microscopic characteristics that were available to [him].” Id.
    And when asked, “how likely or unlikely is it for two hairs to
    be microscopically alike, yet come from different people?,”
    instead of answering that he did not know (the scientifically
    sound answer), the expert said that, in the approximately
    10,000 examinations he had conducted, “there have been four
    or five times when the hair of the suspect and the hair of the
    victim was so nearly alike . . . that I was unable to come to a
    conclusion as to where these hairs originated. It would be very
    seldom.” Id. at 531, S.A. 353.
    On redirect, the expert reiterated that testimony. He was
    asked, “[i]s it your testimony that in 10,000 examinations only
    four or five times the victims and the defendants have been . . .
    so alike you were unable to distinguish?” Id. at 535, S.A. 357.
    He answered in the affirmative: “Approximately 10,000.” Id.
    But on re-cross, when defense counsel asked, “we don’t know
    how many other people have the same microscopic
    characteristics of their hair follicles as the one that you
    identified as Mr. Butler’s hair from the clothing of Mr.
    Mears?,” he answered, “Yes, that is correct. I have no idea
    whether anyone would have the same microscopic
    characteristics.” Id. at 536, S.A. 358.
    In summation, the prosecutor said the following to the jury
    about the significance of the expert’s hair testimony:
    He said when he compared the hairs that were
    found on the victim’s clothing with the
    defendant’s hairs that were taken by [the
    detective] from him at the infirmary, when he
    9
    compared those two, what were they? They
    were the same in every microscopic detail, the
    same.
    I said, how often . . . does it happen? You
    can’t be positive, yes, but how often does it
    happen that two people’s hair, two different
    people, are so similar and so alike that you
    would be unable to tell? Out of 10,000
    examinations, he said he recalls it happening
    approximately four times.
    Id. at 731–32, S.A. 495–96.
    Later, in his rebuttal summation, the prosecutor reminded
    the jury:
    You have the FBI report saying that this man’s
    hair compared with the hairs found on the body
    of the dead man. They are the same in every
    microscopic characteristic—every one. You
    heard the sixteen possible combinations, lack
    thereof, etc. Every one matched.
    Id. at 783, S.A. 535.
    On July 15, 1971, the jury convicted Butler of felony
    murder, first degree murder, and robbery. Butler appealed his
    conviction to this court, arguing, among other things, that the
    trial judge had erred in declining to order physical and
    psychiatric examinations of Hill and Robinson. See United
    States v. Butler, 
    481 F.2d 531
    , 532 (D.C. Cir. 1973). We
    rejected Butler’s arguments and affirmed his conviction. See
    
    id. at 537
    .
    10
    C.
    In 2015, more than four decades after Butler’s convictions,
    the government reviewed his case as part of the overall
    examination of cases involving the use of discredited hair
    microscopy analysis. The government “determined that the
    microscopic hair comparison analysis testimony or laboratory
    report presented in this case included statements that exceeded
    the limits of science . . . and were, therefore, invalid.” Letter
    from Norman Wong, Special Counsel for the Department of
    Justice to Vincent H. Cohen Jr., Acting United States Attorney
    for the District of Columbia 2 (Sept. 11, 2015) (Wong Letter),
    A.A. 68.
    The government identified two types of errors in the
    expert’s testimony against Butler. First, “[t]he examiner stated
    or implied that the evidentiary hair could be associated with a
    specific individual to the exclusion of all others.” Id. at 71.
    Second, “[t]he examiner assigned to the positive association a
    statistical weight or probability or provided a likelihood that
    the questioned hair originated from a particular source, or an
    opinion as to the likelihood or rareness of the positive
    association that could lead the jury to believe that valid
    statistical weight can be assigned to a microscopic hair
    association.” Id. Both statements were flawed in that they
    “exceed[ed] the limits of science.” Id.
    The government advised that, if Butler were to seek post-
    conviction relief “based on the Department[] [of Justice’s]
    disclosure that microscopic hair comparison laboratory reports
    or testimony used in this case contained statements that
    exceeded the limits of science,” the government then would
    waive any reliance on the statute of limitations or any
    procedural-default defense “in order to permit the resolution of
    legal claims arising from the erroneous presentation of
    11
    microscopic hair examination laboratory reports or testimony.”
    Id. at 68. The government, though, took “no position regarding
    the materiality of the error in this case.” Id.
    In September 2016, Butler moved to vacate his sentence
    pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    , arguing that the false hair
    testimony violated his rights under the Due Process Clause.
    The district court denied the motion, holding that the hair
    evidence was not material and that its use at trial thus did not
    violate the Constitution. United States v. Butler, 
    278 F. Supp. 3d 461
     (D.D.C. 2017). Butler now appeals.
    II.
    The scope of our review is confined. The government
    concedes that the hair microscopy evidence presented against
    Butler was false and exceeded the limits of science. The
    government also acknowledges that the prosecution knew or
    should have known of hair microscopy evidence’s
    inadequacies at the time of trial. And the government waives
    statute-of-limitations and procedural-default defenses. In light
    of the government’s concessions and waivers, the sole question
    for us is whether the prosecution’s use of the false hair
    testimony against Butler was material. If so, his constitutional
    rights were infringed.
    In a line of cases beginning with Napue v. Illinois, 
    360 U.S. 264
     (1959), the Supreme Court has consistently
    recognized that the government’s knowing presentation of
    false evidence against a criminal defendant is “incompatible
    with ‘rudimentary demands of justice.’” Giglio v. United
    States, 
    405 U.S. 150
    , 153 (1972) (quoting Mooney v. Holohan,
    
    294 U.S. 103
    , 112 (1935)). Yet not every knowing use of false
    evidence by the government against a defendant necessarily
    rises to the level of constitutional error. Rather, the
    introduction of false evidence unconstitutionally denies a
    12
    defendant a fair trial if the evidence counts as material. E.g.,
    United States v. Agurs, 
    427 U.S. 97
    , 104–108 (1976).
    As we recently explained, “the government’s introduction
    of false testimony is material if the evidence ‘could in any
    reasonable likelihood have affected the judgment of the jury.’”
    United States v. Ausby, 
    916 F.3d 1089
    , 1092 (D.C. Cir. 2019)
    (per curiam) (quoting Giglio, 
    405 U.S. at 154
    ) (ellipses
    omitted); see Napue, 
    360 U.S. at 271
    . That “‘reasonable
    likelihood’ standard does not require the defendant to show
    ‘that he more likely than not would have been acquitted’ absent
    the false statements. Rather, the defendant need show only that
    the false testimony ‘undermines confidence’ in the verdict.
    Thus, even if the false testimony ‘may not have affected the
    jury’s verdict,’ it is material if the evidence reasonably could
    have affected the verdict.” Ausby, 916 F.3d. at 1093 (quoting
    Wearry v. Cain, 
    136 S. Ct. 1002
    , 1006 & n.6 (2016) (per
    curiam)) (formatting modified).
    So understood, the “reasonable likelihood” test “is quite
    easily satisfied.” 
    Id. at 1093
     (quoting United States v.
    Williams, 
    233 F.3d 592
    , 594 (D.C. Cir. 2000)). The standard
    is “strict” against the government, “not just because [the cases]
    involve prosecutorial misconduct, but more importantly
    because they involve a corruption of the truth-seeking function
    of the trial process.” Agurs, 
    427 U.S. at 104
    . Indeed, we have
    described the reasonable-likelihood standard as establishing “a
    veritable hair trigger for setting aside the conviction,” United
    States v. Gale, 
    314 F.3d 1
    , 4 (D.C. Cir. 2003), and as
    “mandat[ing] a virtual automatic reversal of a criminal
    conviction,” Williams, 
    233 F.3d at 594
     (quoting United States
    v. Stofsky, 
    527 F.2d 237
    , 243 (2d Cir. 1975)).
    In Ausby, we recently applied the reasonable-likelihood
    test in closely parallel circumstances. There, as here, the
    13
    government had introduced false hair microscopy evidence
    against the defendant at trial. And there, as here, the sole issue
    we confronted was whether the evidence was material. The
    district court, as in this case, had concluded that the evidence
    was immaterial, but we reversed. Explaining that the “false
    hair-comparison testimony” presented against Ausby “was
    neither the sole piece of evidence on which the prosecution
    hung its case nor redundant or irrelevant,” we determined that
    the “testimony falls on the material side of the spectrum.”
    Ausby, 916 F.3d at 1094–95. We reach the same conclusion
    here, applying the same “quite easily satisfied” materiality
    standard. Id. at 1093.
    The cornerstone of the government’s case against Butler
    was the testimony of Hill and (to a lesser degree) Robinson.
    Hill, though, repeatedly offered false testimony about his drug
    use, falsities that were revealed or corrected upon further
    examination.       And the defense introduced credible
    impeachment evidence demonstrating Hill’s prior inconsistent
    statement about the circumstances of his police statement.
    Robinson was also an admitted drug user and similarly testified
    falsely about her heroin use on the day of the murder. And she
    admitted to making a prior inconsistent statement on the source
    of her knowledge of the crime. In the absence of corroborating
    evidence, then, a reasonable juror could have doubted their
    credibility and thus discounted their testimony.
    We in fact said as much forty-seven years ago when we
    initially reviewed Butler’s conviction. In addressing (and
    ultimately rejecting) a claim that the trial court should have
    ordered examinations of Hill and Robinson for purposes of
    assisting the jury in weighing their credibility, we said that their
    testimony “present[ed] a particular danger of unreliability.”
    Butler, 
    481 F.2d at 534
    . We explained that their testimony
    about their drug use “should have sufficed to put the jury on
    14
    notice that, to the extent the witnesses’ testimony was
    uncorroborated, it should be weighed with caution.” 
    Id. at 535
    .
    And “[t]he danger of unreliability,” we observed, “is
    substantially increased by a factor present in this case . . .
    : ‘The addict-turned-informer (or prosecution witness) may
    have a special and very powerful motive to fabricate a case for
    his own benefit,’” i.e., the threat of criminal prosecution. 
    Id. at 534
     (quoting United States v. Kinnard, 
    465 F.2d 566
    , 574 (D.C.
    Cir. 1972)) (formatting modified).              Defense counsel
    accordingly “urged the jury to conclude that Hill and Robinson
    ‘lied . . . on the stand.’” Butler, 278 F. Supp. 3d at 473 (quoting
    trial transcript).
    Notwithstanding our significant concerns about Hill’s and
    Robinson’s reliability, we held that the trial court’s failure to
    order their examinations fell short of an abuse of discretion,
    chiefly because “of the substantial corroborative evidence
    introduced by the government.” Butler, 
    481 F.2d at 535
    . The
    prosecutor’s closing argument to the jury echoed our
    estimation of the corroborating evidence’s centrality. He
    stressed to the jury that “[w]e don’t ask you to only believe
    James Hill. We only ask you to do what is reasonable, to test
    his story and to test Gail Robinson’s story . . . . Test those with
    the other evidence and what have you? You start to realize that
    those stories are true. It rings true. Each little bit of evidence
    starts to add up.” Trial Tr. 779, July 14, 1971, S.A. 531.
    Addressing what he evidently sensed to be a core
    vulnerability in the government’s case—Hill’s drug use and the
    concomitant “danger of [his] unreliability” as a witness, 
    481 F.2d at
    534—the prosecutor said to the jury: “the fact that
    James Hill was a narcotic addict at the time . . . does that mean
    that in and of itself he didn’t hear what the defendant told him?
    Everything that he has said has been corroborated by
    circumstantial evidence and scientific evidence. Ladies and
    15
    gentlemen, test the testimony once again . . . . What does it
    show? Corroboration, corroboration, corroboration.” Trial Tr.
    781, July 14, 1971, S.A. 533.
    Among the corroborating evidence that the prosecution
    and our court deemed critical, the false hair testimony was
    especially weighty. Apart from Hill’s and Robinson’s
    testimony, the government’s principal corroborating evidence
    pointing to Butler’s culpability consisted of: (i) forensic
    evidence indicating that paint chips found on Butler, the victim,
    and at the crime scene could have come from the same source;
    (ii) testimony from eyewitnesses who saw Butler in the vicinity
    of the crime scene near the estimated time of the crime; (iii) the
    discovery of the victim’s keys in an area Butler frequented; and
    (iv) the false testimony that Butler’s hair microscopically
    matched hair found on the victim. See Butler, 
    481 F.2d at 533
    .
    With regard to the first of those categories of corroborating
    evidence, an expert’s forensic paint analysis suggested that
    paint chips found on Butler, on the victim, and on objects found
    at the crime scene could have all originated from the same
    source. Yet the government’s own witnesses also testified that
    the paint was likely wet when applied to the clothing and that
    Butler had been in the apartment days before at the time the
    apartment was painted. Jurors therefore could have concluded
    that the spot of paint had been applied to Butler’s clothing days
    before the murder—indeed, that may have been the most
    plausible explanation based on the government’s evidence.
    The government also offered evidence suggesting that
    Butler had been seen going to and from the area of the murder
    at times roughly corresponding with the estimated time of the
    crime. The evidence at trial, however, suggested that Butler
    frequented the neighborhood. For example, the government’s
    witnesses testified that he had been inside the apartment where
    16
    the murder took place days earlier and had also helped the
    victim fix a car just outside the apartment on the day of the
    crime. In light of Butler’s regular, licit visits to the area, a
    reasonable juror could have construed his presence there in the
    rough timeframe of the offense, standing alone, to offer modest
    corroboration for Hill’s and Robinson’s testimony.
    As for the victim’s keys, a set of keys carried by the victim
    was found on the rooftop of a house located on a block where
    Butler’s girlfriend lived and Butler often stayed. But no one
    testified to having seen Butler with the keys, there was
    testimony that some of the keys were already missing by the
    time of the murder, the keys were found on the rooftop almost
    two weeks after Butler had been arrested for the murder, and
    the rooftop, while on the same block as Butler’s girlfriend’s
    residence, was also within two blocks of the murder scene. As
    a result, while the keys could have been deposited on the
    rooftop by Butler, they also could have been put there by
    someone else who committed the crime. After all, it was not a
    secret that the police had been searching for the keys: Hill at
    least knew of the police’s interest in finding the keys based on
    his testimony that the officers had searched his residence for
    them.
    By comparison, the hair microscopy evidence offered
    powerful corroboration for Hill’s and Robinson’s testimony
    pointing to Butler as the perpetrator. The defense’s sole
    explanation for the presence of hair matching Butler’s on the
    victim’s clothing, apart from noting questions about the
    probability of a hair match in the first place, was to suggest that
    Butler’s hair had been transferred to the victim when the two
    of them worked on a car together earlier in the day of the
    murder. But the government had a compelling response:
    “Does common sense tell you that when two men are just
    standing next to one another the hair will get on the coat, the
    17
    shirt and on the pants?” the prosecutor asked in summation.
    “Common sense will tell you,” he continued, “that hair from a
    person gets on another person’s clothing if the person were
    standing over him or sitting on him strangling him. What is
    more reasonable?” Trial Tr. 777–78, July 14, 1971, S.A. 529–
    30.
    The government now seeks to cast doubt on the force of
    the hair microscopy evidence presented at trial.                The
    government notes the expert’s testimony at one point that “hair
    analysis does not permit a positive identification of a hair as
    ‘originating from a certain head.’” Gov’t Br. 50–51 (quoting
    Trial Tr. 530–32, July 13, 1971, S.A. 352–354). But the
    government itself, after reviewing the trial transcript,
    determined that the “examiner stated or implied that the
    evidentiary hair could be associated with a specific individual
    to the exclusion of all others,” a “type of testimony” that is false
    and “exceeds the limits of the science.” Wong Letter 5, A.A.
    71 (emphasis added). The government cannot in one breath
    concede the hair testimony’s falsity and in the next breath urge
    that the hair testimony was accurate after all.
    At any rate, in Ausby, the expert’s testimony similarly
    included a statement that “microscopic hair comparisons do not
    constitute a basis of positive personal identification”; and he
    thus allowed that the hairs not only could have “originated from
    the head of Mr. Ausby” but also could have come “from some
    other person whose head hairs or pubic hairs are
    microscopically identical.” 916 F.3d at 1091 (formatting
    modified). We then acknowledged that the expert “had
    conceded that microscopic hair comparison analysis cannot
    produce a positive identification.” Id. But we still determined
    that the admittedly false hair testimony presented against
    Ausby, taken as a whole, was material. So too here.
    18
    Even if the expert’s testimony against Butler did at times
    include an acknowledgement that hair microscopy could not
    produce a positive identification, at other points, the expert or
    prosecutor indicated that it could. That is presumably why the
    government has now determined that the expert falsely “stated
    or implied that the evidentiary hair could be associated with a
    specific individual to the exclusion of all others.” Wong Letter
    5, A.A. 71; see also id. at 7, A.A. 73. The expert recounted the
    sixteen characteristics of the hair he had analyzed. Describing
    two of those characteristics in more detail, the expert referred
    to them as a “very important identifying feature” and an
    “important identifying characteristic.” Trial Tr. 529–30, July
    13, 1971, S.A. 351–52 (emphasis added). And when the
    prosecutor asked whether the expert was “saying that the hairs
    that were found of the defendant’s on the clothes of the victim
    are only similar,” the expert doubled down: “No, I am not.
    When you imply that something is similar, you are implying
    that it is also different in some respects. My report and my
    testimony is that these hairs are the same.” Id. at 535, S.A. 357.
    Notably, the framing of the prosecutor’s question itself
    assumed that the hairs found “on the clothes of the victims”
    were “the defendant’s” hairs, and the expert’s answer
    reinforced to the jury that the “hairs are the same.” Indeed,
    even defense counsel bought into that assumption about the
    expert’s testimony when he asked the expert a question
    concerning the “hair from the clothing of” the victim that the
    expert had “identified as Mr. Butler’s.” Id. at 536, S.A. 358.
    The government points to a response that the expert
    elsewhere gave when asked, “how likely or unlikely is it for
    two hairs to be microscopically alike, yet come from different
    people?” Id. at 531, S.A. 353. The expert answered, “[i]t
    would be very seldom”; but as a preface to that conclusion, he
    somewhat confusingly referenced the number of times he had
    19
    been unable to differentiate a victim’s hair from the defendant’s
    (four or five times out of roughly 10,000 examinations). Id.
    Even if the expert’s reference to a victim’s hair might have
    seemed off-base, a confused juror might well have focused on
    his ultimate response of “very seldom.” Id. That may be why
    the government pointed to this exact exchange as one in which
    the expert had invalidly “assigned to the positive
    association”—i.e., the association of the hair “with a specific
    individual”—“a statistical weight or probability or provided a
    likelihood that the questioned hair originated from a particular
    source, or an opinion as to the likelihood or rareness of the
    positive association that could lead the jury to believe that valid
    statistical weight can be assigned to a microscopic hair
    association.” Wong Letter 5, A.A. 71.
    In his closing argument to the jury, moreover, the
    prosecutor used the figures referenced by the expert, but in a
    manner indicating that they directly responded to the question
    that had been posed to the expert:
    Agent Scholberg of the FBI . . . when he compared
    the hairs that were found on the victim’s clothing
    with the defendant’s hairs . . . [t]hey were the same
    in every microscopic detail, the same. I said, How
    often, Agent Scholberg, does it happen? You can’t
    be positive, yes, but how often does it happen that
    two people’s hair, two different people, are so
    similar and so alike that you would be unable to
    tell? Out of 10,000 examinations, he said he recalls
    it happening approximately four times.
    Trial Tr. 731–32, July 14, 1971, S.A. 495–96 (emphasis
    added). A juror hearing that argument by the prosecutor could
    have readily inferred that, according to the expert, it would be
    exceedingly unlikely for two hairs deemed to be
    20
    microscopically identical to have come from different people.
    That is precisely the kind of conclusion that science did not
    (and does not) support. In Ausby, we relied on the prosecutor’s
    closing argument as supporting our conclusion that the
    presentation of false hair evidence in that case was material.
    916 F.3d at 1095. We do likewise here.
    The government finally contends that Hill’s and
    Robinson’s accurate recounting of various details found at the
    crime scene—such as the presence of a torn belt, a sock in the
    victim’s mouth, and a bottle with water—lends corroboration
    to their accounts that Butler had committed the crime and told
    them about it. That may be so, but the defense also presented
    evidence suggesting: (i) the police initially suspected that it
    was Hill himself who possessed the victim’s keys (and Hill
    knew as much); (ii) Hill had spoken with individuals who
    relayed what someone who visited the crime scene had seen;
    (iii) Hill was not credible on the issue of whether he had been
    threatened with criminal liability; and (iv) Robinson was not
    credible on the source of her knowledge of the crime. The
    defense argued to the jury that other witnesses who had seen
    (or been told about) the crime scene could have related details
    about the scene to Hill and Robinson before they spoke with
    the police. See Butler, 278 F. Supp. 3d at 467–68, 471, 473.
    The defense also suggested to the jury that the police
    themselves may have told Hill and Robinson about those
    details. Id. at 483 n.12.
    Even if the last suggestion lacked “concrete support,” id.,
    a reasonable juror could have surmised that Hill and Robinson
    had a motive to misstate the source of their information. And
    the government, not Butler, bore the burden to demonstrate
    beyond a reasonable doubt who had informed Hill and
    Robinson about the details of the crime scene. In the absence
    of the potentially confirming role played by the false hair
    21
    evidence, a reasonable juror could have found that the
    government fell short of meeting its heavy burden on that
    score, even without the defense advancing a compelling
    alternative theory.
    Our dissenting colleague, though, would conclude that the
    false hair microscopy evidence introduced against Butler could
    not have affected the jury, even under the “quite easily
    satisfied” standard of materiality that governs when the
    prosecution presents false testimony. Ausby, 916 F.3d at 1093
    (quoting Williams, 
    233 F.3d at 594
    ). As our colleague sees it,
    our conclusion in applying that standard here is out of step with
    other decisions. To the contrary, our conclusion is fully in step
    with precedent, as best illustrated by our most germane and
    recent decision, Ausby. There, we reached the same result,
    under the same standard, in the same circumstances (also a
    murder trial in which the prosecution had introduced false hair
    microscopy testimony). Our colleague emphasizes what he
    views to be (i) the relatively insignificant role played by the
    false hair evidence in this case, and (ii) the strength of the other
    evidence implicating Butler. In both of those respects,
    however, this case is of a piece with Ausby.
    First, in arguing that the false hair testimony played only a
    minor role in Butler’s trial, our colleague submits that: the
    testimony designated as false comprised only “twelve lines of
    text during a four-day prosecution”; a number of other lines of
    testimony were deemed to qualify as curative, “limiting
    language,” including testimony specifically stating that the hair
    evidence was “not a positive identification”; the prosecutor
    made only limited reference to the hair evidence in his closing
    arguments; and defense counsel explained the limitations of
    hair-microscopy evidence in his own closing argument.
    Dissenting Op. 11, 16–21.
    22
    All of that, however, was also true in Ausby, yet we
    (unanimously) found the false hair evidence to be material and
    thus vacated Ausby’s conviction. In particular, in Ausby: the
    testimony designated as false comprised virtually the same
    number of lines of transcript text (fifteen) in a four-day trial,
    Ausby App. 74; a number of other lines of testimony were
    deemed to qualify as curative, “limiting language,” 
    id.,
    including testimony specifically stating that hair microscopy
    evidence does “not constitute a basis of positive personal
    identification,” Ausby, 916 F.3d at 1091; the “prosecution only
    briefly discussed the hair evidence in its opening and closing
    arguments,” United States v. Ausby, 
    275 F. Supp. 3d 7
    , 30
    (D.D.C. 2017); and defense counsel explained and emphasized
    the limitations of that evidence in his closing argument, 
    id. at 21
    ; see Ausby, 916 F.3d at 1091. In that light, the allegedly
    limited role played by the false hair testimony in this case
    affords no ground for reaching a different result than in Ausby.
    Nor does the strength of the other evidence of guilt. Our
    dissenting colleague observes in that regard that: the
    prosecution in Butler’s trial presented the testimony of twenty-
    three witnesses over four days; the jury returned its verdict of
    guilt in one day; the district court, in finding the false hair
    evidence immaterial, “painstakingly reviewed” the evidence
    and arguments presented the jury for some twelve pages of its
    published opinion; and that court viewed the non-hair evidence
    of guilt to be “overwhelming.” Dissenting Op. 1–3, 5–6.
    Again, though, all of that could equally be said about
    Ausby. There, too, the prosecution presented the testimony of
    twenty-three witnesses over four days, Ausby, 275 F. Supp. 3d
    at 10; the jury returned its verdict in just an hour and a half, id.
    at 22; the district court reviewed the evidence and arguments
    presented to the jury for some thirteen pages of its published
    opinion, id. at 9–23; and that court (coincidentally, the same
    23
    judge who wrote the equally thorough and considered decision
    we review here) viewed the non-hair evidence to be
    “overwhelming,” id. at 32. Our court still found a reasonable
    likelihood that the false hair evidence could have affected the
    jury’s judgment. And we follow that same course here.
    In arguing that the hair evidence could not have affected
    the jury’s verdict, our colleague emphasizes the testimony of
    Hill and Robinson. As explained, though, a reasonable juror
    could have doubted their veracity, such that the hair evidence
    could have played a confirming role. See pp. 13–14, 20–21,
    supra. At any rate, in Ausby, too, the centerpiece of the
    prosecution’s case was non-hair evidence connecting Ausby to
    the crime. See Ausby, 275 F. Supp. 3d at 20, 31–32.
    Of particular note, Ausby was known to carry highly
    distinctive bottles of perfumed oils, and one such bottle was
    found on the floor of the victim’s bedroom next to her body
    and three bottles were found on the ground immediately
    outside, just below an open bedroom window. Id. at 11–13.
    The defense thus did not dispute that Ausby, although a
    stranger to the victim, had been inside her apartment, or that he
    had exited it through the window. Nor did Ausby dispute the
    prosecutor’s account that the perpetrator had escaped through
    the window after the victim’s boyfriend knocked on her door.
    Id. at 11. Nor, finally, did Ausby dispute that the victim had
    been away from her apartment for two weeks and returned only
    on the day of her murder. Id. Ausby’s defense was that, even
    if he had been in the bedroom and had exited it through the
    window, and even if the perpetrator had also fled through the
    window, Ausby and the perpetrator still could be different
    people, with Ausby having been in the apartment in a several-
    day period before the day of the crime (and having also exited
    through the window even though the victim would not have
    24
    been home then, leaving his perfume vials behind). See id. at
    21.
    The prosecutor, after reviewing the evidence about the
    perfume vials in his closing argument, said to the jury that he
    could rest his case “right there” and could be “boring” the jury
    “with anything further.” Id. at 20 (quoting trial transcript). But
    even if that evidence may have strongly connected Ausby to
    the crime in the eyes of the jury, see id. at 31, the hair evidence
    purportedly putting Ausby’s hair on the victim’s body, see id.
    at 15, could have removed any conceivable question about
    whether he was at the scene on the relevant day, rather than a
    previous day. For that reason, we found a reasonable
    likelihood that the false hair testimony could have affected the
    jury’s judgment. See Ausby, 916 F.3d at 1095.
    Guided by our decision there, we reach the same
    conclusion here. In Ausby, the prosecution chiefly relied on
    physical evidence connecting Ausby to the murder; and here,
    the prosecution chiefly relied on Hill’s and Robinson’s
    testimony connecting Butler to the murder. In both cases, the
    jury might well have convicted the defendants based on that
    evidence, regardless of the false hair microscopy testimony
    introduced against them. But Butler need not show that the
    jury could not (or would not) have convicted him without the
    false hair evidence. Recall that a defendant against whom the
    prosecution introduces false testimony need not show that the
    jury more likely than not would have acquitted him without that
    evidence. See id. at 1092–93. Rather, “even if the false
    testimony may not have affected the jury’s verdict, it is material
    if the evidence reasonably could have affected the verdict.” Id.
    at 1093 (internal quotation marks omitted). Hence our
    consistent description of the standard as “quite easily
    satisfied.” Id. (quoting Williams, 
    233 F.3d at 594
    ).
    25
    We found it satisfied in Ausby, and we do likewise here.
    And we thus conclude that the government’s presentation
    against Butler of evidence that it knew (or should have known)
    was false denied him a fair trial.
    *    *   *    *   *
    For the foregoing reasons, we reverse the judgment of the
    district court and remand with instructions to grant Butler’s
    motion to vacate his sentence pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    .
    So ordered.
    KATSAS, Circuit Judge, dissenting: My colleagues set
    aside a half-century-old murder conviction based on a few
    scraps of misleading testimony that were briefly given and
    immediately corrected. In so doing, they recast Napue v.
    Illinois, 
    360 U.S. 264
     (1959), which permits relief only if there
    is a reasonable likelihood that false testimony caused a
    conviction, into a hairline trigger for setting aside convictions.
    And they downplay untainted evidence that overwhelmingly
    establishes the defendant’s guilt. For both reasons, I
    respectfully dissent.
    I
    A
    On September 29, 1970, Jesse Mears was strangled to
    death at age 75. Mears’s body was found in the bathroom of a
    vacant third-floor apartment in a building that he managed. His
    hands were tied behind his back, and a telephone cord was
    wrapped tightly around his neck. He had been gagged with a
    stocking and a wad of toilet paper shoved into his mouth.
    Dennis Butler, then 19 years old, was arrested the next day and
    charged with first-degree murder, felony murder, and robbery.
    Every court to review the evidence against Butler has
    described it as “overwhelming.” United States v. Butler, 
    481 F.2d 531
    , 535 (D.C. Cir. 1973); United States v. Butler, 
    278 F. Supp. 3d 461
    , 483 (D.D.C. 2017). Eyewitnesses placed Butler
    with Mears around the time of the murder. Matching paint
    stains were found on their respective clothing. Mears’s keys
    were recovered near Butler’s home. And, most damningly,
    Butler confessed to the murder to two friends, James Hill and
    Phyllis Robinson, whose testimony recounting the confessions
    was “comprehensive and believable and, more importantly,
    supported by overwhelming extrinsic corroboration.” Butler,
    278 F. Supp. 3d at 474 (cleaned up).
    2
    According to Hill and Robinson, Mears intruded on Butler
    selling drugs to two boys in the bathroom of a vacant
    apartment. Butler confessed to Hill that he “tied the old man
    up,” gagged him with a stocking, strangled him with a belt
    (until the belt broke) and then with a telephone cord, “poured
    some water down his throat to make sure that he was dead,”
    and absconded with his keys. Supplemental Appendix (S.A.)
    22–23. Butler confessed to Robinson that “he was choking the
    man with a belt and the belt broke and then he started choking
    him with the telephone cord.” Id. at 150–51. The crime scene
    closely corroborated these accounts. The gag inside Mears’s
    mouth was “soggy”—wetter than saliva could explain. Id. at
    8. Mears’s corpse lacked a belt, keys, or wallet. And in the
    kitchen, police discovered a half-open cabinet drawer that
    contained a man’s leather belt split into two pieces and left on
    top of various other items.
    Over the course of four days, the prosecution presented
    live testimony from twenty-one witnesses and stipulated
    testimony from two more. Hill and Robinson testified at length
    about Butler’s confessions to each of them. Three witnesses
    placed Butler near the apartment around the time of the murder.
    Five witnesses—a medical examiner, a detective, two police
    officers, and one neighbor—described the crime scene. Five
    witnesses testified about the recovery of Mears’s keys, and one
    testified about leaving wet paint in the vacant apartment three
    days before the murder. Five expert witnesses testified about
    the keys, the crime scene, the water poured down Mears’s
    throat, the paint found on the clothes of Mears and Butler, the
    torn belt, and hair taken from Mears’s clothing and from Butler.
    FBI Special Agent Myron Scholberg briefly testified for
    the prosecution, for less than 16 pages of an 800-page trial
    transcript. Scholberg began by explaining that the belt had
    been torn rather than cut. Scholberg then explained his
    3
    microscopic examination of the hair found on Mears’s clothing
    and of hair samples taken from Butler. Scholberg opined that
    the hair on Mears’s clothing “could have come from” Butler,
    though he affirmatively disclaimed any “positive
    identification.” Appellant’s Appendix (A.A.) 84. Scholberg
    further opined that it was virtually impossible for “the hair of
    the suspect and the hair of the victim” to be indistinguishable.
    Id. at 85. On cross-examination, Scholberg acknowledged that
    he had “no statistics” about how many people had hair
    indistinguishable from the hair on Mears’s clothing. Id. at 86.
    On re-cross, in response to a further question from defense
    counsel about “how many other people have the same
    microscopic characteristics of their hair follicles as the one that
    you identified as Mr. Butler’s hair from the clothing of Mr.
    Mears,” Scholberg reiterated: “I have no idea whether anyone
    would have the same microscopic characteristics.” Id. at 90.
    The defense presented five witnesses to undercut the
    credibility of Hill and Robinson and to show that neighbors
    discussed Mears’s killing in the hours after the murder. The
    jury returned a guilty verdict in one day, and the district court
    sentenced Butler to twenty years to life in prison.
    On direct appeal, this Court affirmed the conviction and
    sentence. We rejected Butler’s contention that the district court
    had abused its discretion in failing to order Hill and Robinson
    to be tested for drug use. Both were “admitted heroin users,”
    and we recognized that this undercut the credibility of their
    testimony. 
    481 F.2d at 534
    . But, we continued, “[t]he
    challenged witnesses’ testimony, while ambiguous at times,
    did present a comprehensive and believable narrative. More
    importantly, that narrative was supported by overwhelming
    extrinsic corroboration, giving substantial independent
    assurance of its reliability.” 
    Id. at 535
    .
    4
    In 1978, Butler escaped from prison and remained a
    fugitive until 2006, when he was caught, convicted of escape,
    and returned to prison.
    B
    In recent years, concerns arose about the use of hair
    evidence in criminal trials, which was common before the
    development of DNA testing. In response, the Department of
    Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, working with
    the Innocence Project and the National Association of Criminal
    Defense Lawyers, began studying the appropriate uses of such
    evidence. In 2012, DOJ issued a statement titled “Microscopic
    Hair Comparison Analysis.” A.A. 101. In it, DOJ and the
    private organizations agreed that some uses of hair evidence
    are entirely appropriate. Specifically, “[t]he scientific analysis
    of hair evidence permits a well-trained examiner to offer an
    opinion that a known individual can either be included or
    excluded as a possible source of a questioned hair collected at
    a crime scene.” 
    Id.
     But because “the size of the pool of people
    who could be included as a possible source of a specific hair is
    unknown,” a statement “that applies probabilities to a
    particular inclusion of someone as a source of a hair of
    unknown origin cannot be scientifically supported.” 
    Id.
     The
    statement identifies three instances in which testimony
    “exceeds the limits of science”: if the examiner states that
    “evidentiary hair could be associated with a specific individual
    to the exclusion of all others” (dubbed Error Type 1), assigns
    “a statistical weight or probability” to such an association
    (Error Type 2), or cites “the number of samples from different
    individuals that could not be distinguished from one another as
    a predictive value to bolster the conclusion that a hair belongs
    to a specific individual” (Error Type 3). 
    Id.
    5
    In 2015, the FBI concluded that Scholberg had committed
    two of these errors. First, it asserted that nine lines of testimony
    from the direct examination, in which Scholberg discussed the
    probability that hair from Butler and Mears would be
    indistinguishable, reflected Error Type 2. A.A. 73 (citing Trial
    Tr. 531, lines 8–16, reproduced at A.A. 85). Second, the FBI
    asserted that three lines of testimony from the re-cross, in
    which Scholberg disclaimed any knowledge of the probability
    that hair from different people would have the same
    microscopic characteristics, reflected Error Type 1. 
    Id.
     (citing
    Trial Tr. 536, lines 9–11, reproduced at A.A. 90). At the same
    time, the FBI noted that Scholberg repeatedly had included
    “Limiting Language” in his testimony. 
    Id.
     The FBI notified
    the Innocence Project and the NACDL of its conclusions, and
    those groups noted their agreement. DOJ then notified Butler’s
    counsel and waived in advance any limitations or procedural-
    default defenses that might otherwise apply to claims for post-
    conviction relief under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    . The notice expressly
    took “no position regarding the materiality of the error in this
    case.” A.A. 68.
    Not surprisingly, Butler moved to vacate his conviction
    under section 2255. He contended that Scholberg’s testimony
    constituted a knowing use of false evidence to convict him, and
    thus violated due process. The government did not dispute that
    some of Scholberg’s testimony was false or misleading. Nor
    did it dispute that the government knew, or should have known,
    that some of the testimony was misleading. But, the
    government argued, any misleading evidence was not material.
    The district court denied relief on that basis. For twelve
    pages, the court painstakingly reviewed the evidence and
    arguments presented at Butler’s trial. 278 F. Supp. 3d at 463–
    74. The court concluded that Scholberg’s testimony was
    carefully hedged, id. at 482; that the testimony of Hill and
    6
    Robinson “remained supported by ‘overwhelming extrinsic
    corroboration’” even without the hair evidence, id. at 483
    (quoting Butler, 
    481 F.2d at 535
    ); and that the government’s
    entire case, “when viewed as a whole, and even without the hair
    testimony,” established Butler’s guilt “beyond a reasonable
    doubt,” id. at 484.
    II
    Under Napue v. Illinois, 
    360 U.S. 264
     (1959), the
    government “may not knowingly use false evidence, including
    false testimony, to obtain a tainted conviction.” 
    Id. at 269
    .
    Moreover, “[t]he same result obtains when the State, although
    not soliciting false evidence, allows it to go uncorrected.” 
    Id.
    But use or allowance of false testimony does not invariably
    require a new trial. To the contrary, it does so only if the
    defendant proves materiality—i.e., a “reasonable likelihood
    that the false testimony could have affected” the verdict.
    United States v. Agurs, 
    427 U.S. 97
    , 103 (1976); see Giglio v.
    United States, 
    405 U.S. 150
    , 154 (1972); Napue, 
    360 U.S. at 271
    . We have applied this settled materiality requirement in
    “decades of cases” under Napue. United States v. Ausby, 
    916 F.3d 1089
    , 1092 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (per curiam). And we have
    stressed that “even if the prosecution either sponsored or failed
    to correct false testimony, the grant of a new trial is not
    automatic.” United States v. Vega, 
    826 F.3d 514
    , 529 (D.C.
    Cir. 2016) (per curiam).
    Supreme Court precedent makes this clear. The Court has
    found false testimony to be material in only four cases. Each
    time, it stressed the critical importance of the testimony to the
    government’s overall case. In Alcorta v. Texas, 
    355 U.S. 28
    (1957) (per curiam), the “only eye witness” to a murder gave
    perjured testimony that he was not having an affair with the
    victim, which was “seriously prejudicial” to the defendant’s
    7
    contention that he had killed his wife only in “sudden passion,”
    upon discovering the affair. See 
    id.
     at 29–32. In Napue, the
    “principal state witness” falsely denied that the government
    had “promised him consideration” to testify, and the conviction
    rested “largely” on his “extremely important” eyewitness
    account. See 
    360 U.S. at
    265–66. In Miller v. Pate, 
    386 U.S. 1
     (1967), a government chemist made a “consistent and
    repeated misrepresentation” that paint on the defendant’s
    shorts was blood, and this formed a “vital component” of the
    government’s case. See 
    id. at 3, 6
    . In Giglio v. United States,
    
    405 U.S. 150
     (1972), the government’s case “depended almost
    entirely” on one “key witness,” who falsely denied that the
    government had promised not to prosecute him in return for his
    testimony. See 
    id. at 151
    , 154–55.
    In contrast, the Court has denied relief for false testimony
    even on critical issues, as long as the remaining evidence is
    sufficiently strong. In Kaiser v. New York, 
    394 U.S. 280
    (1969), the prosecution falsely presented two recorded phone
    conversations as confessions. That misrepresentation struck at
    the heart of its case, which “rested principally on the content”
    of the conversations. 
    Id. at 280
    . Nonetheless, the record as a
    whole “clearly and beyond any reasonable doubt implicated the
    defendant,” People v. Kaiser, 
    233 N.E.2d 818
    , 821 (N.Y.
    1967), and the jury, which “knew the circumstances under
    which the incriminating statements had been made,” could
    itself evaluate the misrepresentation in context. See 
    394 U.S. at
    281 n.5. Likewise, in Giles v. Maryland, 
    386 U.S. 66
     (1967),
    five justices rejected two Napue claims for lack of materiality.
    Giles involved rape convictions resting on testimony from the
    victim and her date on the night at issue. A plurality would
    have ordered further consideration of whether the government
    had knowingly elicited from them false testimony about one of
    the defendants and about whether the victim had engaged in
    sexual activity with her date, who was not one of the
    8
    defendants. See 
    id.
     at 74–76 (opinion of Brennan, J.).
    Although the Court remanded on other grounds, a majority held
    that neither Napue claim was material: the first involved a
    dispute fully aired out at trial, and the second involved at most
    an “inconclusive intimation” of the victim’s promiscuity,
    which could “scarcely have sufficed to change the trial’s
    outcome.” 
    Id.
     at 111–12 (Harlan, J., dissenting); see 
    id.
     at 82–
    83 (White, J., concurring in the judgment).
    This Court too has confirmed that Napue’s materiality
    requirement has bite. So far as I can tell, we have found the
    requirement satisfied only twice in the six decades since Napue
    was decided. In United States v. Iverson, 
    637 F.2d 799
     (D.C.
    Cir. 1980), we reversed a conviction where the government had
    failed to correct perjury by a “key witness” who falsely testified
    that she “had nothing to gain from testifying for the
    government.” 
    Id. at 801
    .1 And in Ausby, we set aside a
    conviction resting in part on expert testimony falsely stating
    that hair from the crime scene could be “positively” identified
    as the defendant’s. 916 F.3d at 1091–92. We described this
    testimony as “the primary evidence that directly contradicted”
    the position of the defense, which could “plausibly explain[]”
    all the government’s remaining evidence. Id. at 1095.
    Over the same period, we rejected at least six Napue
    claims for lack of materiality. In four cases, the disputed
    testimony was insignificant relative to the prosecution’s overall
    case. See United States v. Sitzmann, 
    893 F.3d 811
    , 828–29
    (D.C. Cir. 2018) (per curiam) (“single reference during a five-
    week trial … was unlikely to have influenced the verdict,
    especially in light of the abundant evidence at trial” (cleaned
    1
    On rehearing, we remanded the case for further factfinding on
    whether the defense knew that this testimony was false. United
    States v. Iverson, 
    648 F.2d 737
     (D.C. Cir. 1981).
    9
    up)); Vega, 826 F.3d at 531 (false testimony was “just gilding
    the lily”); United States v. Burch, 
    156 F.3d 1315
    , 1328–29
    (D.C. Cir. 1998); United States v. Anderson, 
    509 F.2d 312
    ,
    326–27 & n.110 (D.C. Cir. 1974). In a fifth case, “the [false]
    testimony was corrected, and [the defendant] failed to
    demonstrate that the misleading content of the initial testimony
    could nevertheless have affected the judgment of the jury.”
    United States v. Straker, 
    800 F.3d 570
    , 604 (D.C. Cir. 2015)
    (per curiam). In a sixth, the false testimony was immaterial
    because the defense received the critical evidence “in time to
    make effective use of it.” United States v. Paxson, 
    861 F.2d 730
    , 737–38 (D.C. Cir. 1988).
    Butler attempts to equate Napue’s materiality requirement
    with the harmless-error rule of Chapman v. California, 
    386 U.S. 18
     (1967), under which the government, to preserve a
    conviction despite constitutional error, must show no
    “reasonable possibility” that the error influenced the jury. See
    
    id. at 23
    . But “reasonable possibility” is different from
    “reasonable likelihood,” and a burden on the government is
    different from one on the defendant. We thus decisively
    rejected Butler’s position in Ausby. There, we explained that
    “the harmless-error standard of Chapman,” which applies only
    after a constitutional violation has been established, is
    substantively and conceptually different from the materiality
    requirement of Napue, which is an essential element of
    establishing a due-process violation in the first place. See 916
    F.3d at 1092–94.
    For their part, my colleagues embrace Chapman in
    substance, though not by name. Piecing together scattered
    dicta from two cases, they morph Napue’s materiality
    requirement into “a veritable hair trigger for setting aside the
    conviction,” ante, at 12 (quoting United States v. Gale, 
    314 F.3d 1
    , 4 (D.C. Cir. 2003)), which is “quite easily satisfied” and
    10
    would require “a virtual automatic reversal” whenever the
    government has offered false testimony, 
    id.
     (quoting United
    States v. Williams, 
    233 F.3d 592
    , 594 (D.C. Cir. 2000) (citation
    omitted)). But Gale and Williams cannot bear that weight.
    Neither case set aside any conviction, on Napue grounds or
    otherwise. In Gale, this Court rejected a Napue claim because
    the disputed testimony was not false. See 314 F.3d at 3. We
    referenced the supposed “hair trigger” only after doing so, and
    only to make the undisputed point that Napue’s materiality
    requirement is less demanding than the materiality requirement
    for establishing a due-process violation under Brady v.
    Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963), based on the government’s
    failure to disclose exculpatory evidence without fault. See 314
    F.3d at 4. Williams is even further afield. It involved perjury
    discovered only after trial. There was no constitutional issue
    at all, but only the question of whether the “interests of justice”
    required a new trial under Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure
    33. See 
    233 F.3d at 593
    . Finally, and most importantly, the
    dicta quoted by my colleagues do not fairly describe the six
    decades of case law applying Napue’s materiality requirement
    with some rigor. We should therefore reject the gloss on Napue
    suggested by Gale and Williams, just as Ausby rejected prior
    dicta mistakenly equating Napue to Chapman. See 916 F.3d at
    1094.2
    2
    The government failed to argue that the harmless-error rule of
    Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
     (1993), should govern Napue
    claims raised under section 2255. In Brecht, the Supreme Court held
    that, on collateral review under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    , courts generally
    should deny relief unless the constitutional error “had substantial and
    injurious effect or influence in determining the jury’s verdict.” 
    507 U.S. at 637
     (quotation marks omitted). Some courts of appeals have
    held that Brecht applies to Napue claims, see, e.g., United States v.
    Clay, 
    720 F.3d 1021
    , 1025–27 (8th Cir. 2013), and most courts of
    appeals have held that Brecht applies to collateral review under
    11
    III
    In this case, there is no reasonable likelihood that
    Scholberg’s disputed hair testimony could have affected the
    verdict. For one thing, even setting aside that testimony, the
    evidence of Butler’s guilt was overwhelming. For another, the
    two scraps of disputed testimony—covering twelve lines of
    text during a four-day prosecution—were at worst narrowly
    misleading and quickly cleared up by various ensuing
    clarifications. In the context of the government’s overall case,
    the disputed statements were wholly immaterial.
    A
    As the district court explained, the testimony of Hill and
    Robinson, who recounted detailed confessions made by Butler
    on the day of the murder, formed “the linchpin of the
    government’s case.” Butler, 278 F. Supp. 3d at 483. On direct
    review, this Court explained that their testimony “present[ed] a
    comprehensive and believable narrative” that “was supported
    by overwhelming extrinsic corroboration, giving substantial
    independent assurance of its reliability.” Butler, 
    481 F.2d at 535
    . Likewise, as the district court explained, even “absent the
    hair evidence, the testimony of these two witnesses remained
    supported by ‘overwhelming extrinsic corroboration.’” Butler,
    278 F. Supp. 3d at 483 (quoting Butler, 
    481 F.2d at 535
    ).
    Butler was friends with, and supplied heroin to, Hill and
    Robinson. When police separately interviewed Hill and
    Robinson one day after the murder, both gave consistent
    statements reporting confessions that Butler had made to them
    section 2255, see United States v. Smith, 
    723 F.3d 510
    , 517 (4th Cir.
    2013) (collecting cases). In this circuit, both questions remain open
    for consideration in a case where the government raises the issue.
    12
    within one to three hours of the crime. Hill and Robinson then
    repeated their accounts as the star witnesses at Butler’s trial.
    Hill provided the fullest narrative. He testified that he
    called Butler between 3:00 and 3:30 p.m. on the day of the
    murder, looking for heroin. Over the telephone, Butler told
    Hill that he had just left the home of Ellen Johnson—the sister
    of Butler’s girlfriend—where “he had just killed the rent man”
    for her building. S.A. 22. Johnson lived in the building where
    Mears’s body was found. According to Hill, Butler “told me
    that the old man caught him selling narcotics to two boys, and
    the old man knocked it over and came over and flushed it.” 
    Id.
    Hill added that Butler “told me he tied the old man up and put
    a stocking or something in his mouth, and was choking him
    with a belt, and the belt broke and he started choking him with
    a telephone cord.” 
    Id.
     Finally, “he poured some water down
    his throat to make sure that he was dead.” 
    Id.
     Later, around
    4:00 p.m., Butler went to Hill’s home and divulged more
    details, including how he had taken “some keys to the
    apartment or … to the man’s car.” 
    Id. at 23
    . Butler also
    revealed that the killing took place in the bathroom of an
    “[u]pstairs apartment.” 
    Id. at 28
    .
    Robinson’s testimony reinforced Hill’s. She arrived at
    Hill’s house around 4:30 p.m. on the day of the murder, where
    she found Hill and Butler using heroin. Hill told Robinson that
    “Dennis just killed a man.” S.A. 150. Butler then “cut in” to
    explain that he “had to do something,” and that “he was
    choking the man with a belt and the belt broke and then he
    started choking him with the telephone cord.” 
    Id.
     at 150–51.
    According to Robinson, Hill added that Butler had killed Mears
    because “the man caught Dennis selling narcotics in the
    bathroom to two boys.” 
    Id. at 152
    .
    13
    My colleagues note fair grounds for questioning the
    credibility of Hill and Robinson: both used heroin, both gave
    conflicting testimony about the extent of their drug use, and
    Robinson gave the police inconsistent statements about which
    details of the murder she learned directly from Butler and
    which she learned indirectly through Hill. Ante, at 13.
    Nonetheless, both knew and separately reported key details of
    the murder that they could have learned only from the
    murderer. Hill and Robinson each knew that the killer had
    choked Mears with a belt until it broke. Additionally, Hill
    knew that the killer had poured water down Mears’s throat.
    And, of course, the crime scene itself established beyond any
    reasonable doubt that they truthfully reported these details.
    My colleagues speculate that Hill and Robinson might
    have learned these details from Ellen Johnson and then
    manufactured a story to frame Butler. Ante, at 20–21. That is
    a virtual impossibility. Johnson, a sister of Butler’s girlfriend,
    lived in a second-floor apartment in the building where Mears
    was killed. She testified that, when another neighbor told her
    of Mears’s death, she went upstairs to the vacant apartment,
    entered it, “just stood there and looked at [the body] and came
    back out.” S.A. 212. During this brief visit to the crime scene,
    Johnson noticed that Mears “had something white stuffed in his
    mouth and a cord around his neck and his hands were tied
    behind his back.” 
    Id.
     But Johnson did not go into the
    bathroom, bedroom, or kitchen of the apartment, and she did
    not “look in anything, in any of the cabinets or any of the tables
    or anything in the kitchen.” 
    Id.
     at 219–20. Thus, it is highly
    unlikely that she would have noticed (but failed to mention in
    her testimony) that the stocking protruding from Mears’s
    mouth was wetter than spit would explain and then would have
    inferred that the murderer must have poured water down his
    throat. Likewise, it is virtually impossible that she would have
    looked in the kitchen drawer (from her position outside the
    14
    bathroom), noticed the torn belt among other random items,
    and inferred that it must have been a failed murder weapon used
    before the telephone cord finished the job. Johnson—who had
    no motive to shade her testimony adversely to Butler—further
    testified that she did not convey to Hill the details of what she
    saw at the crime scene. 
    Id. at 215
    . My colleagues cite other
    evidence suggesting that Johnson conveyed those details to her
    sister Lillian Harring, who in turn conveyed them to Mary
    Dean (another sister, who was also Butler’s girlfriend), who in
    turn conveyed them to Hill. 
    Id.
     at 450–52. Even if those
    various communications occurred in the hours after the murder,
    Johnson still cannot be the source of Hill’s and Robinson’s
    knowledge that the murderer tore a belt trying to strangle
    Mears, or Hill’s knowledge that the murderer then poured
    water down Mears’s throat to make sure that he was dead. The
    only rational account of this evidence is the obvious one:
    Butler confessed to Hill and Robinson, just as they testified.
    Other evidence linked Butler to the crime. Many
    eyewitnesses placed him near the building around the time of
    the murder, and one even saw Butler and Mears working
    together on a car around 12:30 to 1:00 p.m. In addition, two
    weeks after the murder, Mears’s keys were found on a rooftop
    three doors down from the home where Butler lived with his
    girlfriend, almost half a mile away from where Mears was
    murdered. Furthermore, when Butler was arrested in the early
    morning of September 30, the day after the murder, his pants
    had a spot of aqua-colored paint. Three days before the murder,
    Wilson Dean, the brother of Butler’s girlfriend, was painting
    the apartment where the murder took place. Dean testified that
    he left in the apartment a pan of paint, a roller, and an open
    paint bucket with some cans and soda bottles inside it. When
    police inspected the crime scene, they found the pan, roller, and
    bucket. They also found aqua-colored paint stains on Mears’s
    coat and on a Pepsi bottle containing water and lying inside his
    15
    coat. An expert for the government testified that the paint on
    Butler’s pants, the paint on Mears’s coat, and the paint on the
    Pepsi bottle all were similar or identical “in color, texture, and
    type of paint.” S.A. 342.
    My colleagues seek to discount all this corroborating
    evidence piece by piece. Butler’s presence at the apartment
    building, they say, could have been a coincidence. The keys,
    they say, could have been taken and thrown away by anyone.
    And the paint, they say, might have stained Butler’s pants days
    earlier. Ante, at 15–16. True enough, but the individual pieces
    of evidence are more powerful than my colleagues
    acknowledge. To reiterate, Butler was seen together with
    Mears right outside the apartment building, within a few hours
    of the time of death, and Mears’s keys were recovered three
    doors down from where Butler lived, almost half a mile away
    from the murder scene. As for the paint, Wilson Dean did
    testify that Butler “came up” to the vacant apartment as Dean
    was painting on the Saturday before the murder, though he
    “didn’t stay too long.” S.A. 241. But it is far less likely that
    such a brief visit would cause paint-stained pants than would
    the murderer’s struggle to tie up and gag the victim, grab a soda
    bottle from an open paint bucket, fill it with water, and pour the
    water down the victim’s throat. Moreover, the paint left in the
    apartment by Dean must have still been wet on the day of the
    murder; the expert testified that the paint was “applied while
    wet” to the clothes of both Mears and Butler, 
    id. at 342
    , and
    there is no evidence suggesting that Mears might have been
    dabbed while Dean painted on the prior Saturday.
    Furthermore, Dean’s testimony is incriminating in another
    respect. It establishes that Butler, who himself used and sold
    heroin, would have known that the third-floor apartment was
    vacant—and thus an ideal spot from which to make the sales.
    Finally, whatever the probative force of any one piece of
    evidence considered in isolation, “individual pieces of
    16
    evidence, insufficient in themselves to prove a point, may in
    cumulation prove it.” Bourjaily v. United States, 
    483 U.S. 171
    ,
    179 (1987). Here, these various pieces of evidence, together
    with the confessions reported by Hill and Robinson, make the
    case against Butler overwhelming.
    B
    Compared to all this evidence, the disputed hair testimony
    played only a minor role at trial. Much of Scholberg’s
    testimony was appropriate—and made the case against Butler
    even stronger. According to the FBI, Scholberg “exceeded the
    limits of science” in only two asserted overstatements made in
    twelve lines of testimony. A.A. 67–73. But these fleeting
    scraps were at worst confusing or ambiguous, and any marginal
    prejudice that they may have caused was immediately cured by
    corrective and cautionary statements from the prosecution,
    from defense counsel, and from Scholberg himself—including
    in twenty-five lines of testimony that the FBI itself recognized
    as appropriate “Limiting Language.” Id. at 73.
    In his direct testimony, Scholberg began by explaining the
    basics of microscopic hair analysis, through which samples of
    hair can be classified as similar or dissimilar in some sixteen
    different respects. After explaining that the hair taken from
    Mears’s clothing and the hair samples taken from Butler were
    similar in all those respects, Scholberg offered the measured
    and appropriate conclusion that the hair from Mears’s clothing
    “could have come from the head of the defendant.” A.A. 84.
    Scholberg then elaborated on why he had hedged his
    conclusion:
    Now, I say could have because hairs do not contain
    enough identifying characteristics to be positively
    identified as originating from a certain head of a
    certain individual to the exclusion of all other
    17
    individuals in this race group. This is not a positive
    identification. My testimony is they are the same or
    alike in all the microscopic characteristics that were
    available to me.
    Id. (emphasis added). Measured against the DOJ guidelines on
    appropriate and inappropriate uses of hair evidence, this
    testimony was permissible—indeed, it was exemplary.
    The first snippet deemed by the FBI to be false involved
    eight lines of testimony immediately after this passage, at the
    end of the direct examination. After Scholberg explained his
    inability to make a positive identification, the prosecutor asked
    him “how likely or how unlikely is it for two hairs to be
    microscopically alike, yet come from different people?” A.A.
    85. A direct response could have amounted to Error Type 2,
    had it offered any “probability” that the hair found on Mears’s
    clothing belonged to Butler. Id. at 101. But Scholberg’s
    answer was nonresponsive. He stated that, in his roughly
    10,000 examinations, there were only “four or five times when
    the hair of the suspect and the hair of the victim was so nearly
    alike … that I was unable to come to a conclusion as to where
    these hairs originated.” Id. at 85 (emphases added). This
    suggested a very low probability that the hair of Mears and
    Butler would be indistinguishable. But as defense counsel
    stressed in closing argument, Mears and Butler were different
    races, their hair looked entirely different, and nobody had
    argued to the contrary. In other words, far from overstating the
    likelihood that the hair found on Mears’s clothing belonged to
    Butler, Scholberg’s nonresponsive answer tended to rule out
    that the hair belonged to Mears—a possibility not at issue in
    the case. In context, any overstatement in Scholberg’s direct
    testimony was immaterial.
    18
    In any event, immediately after this garbled exchange, the
    defense cleared up any confusion and thus cured any prejudice.
    At the beginning of the cross-examination, defense counsel
    shifted attention away from the question whether “the hair of
    the defendant and the hair of the victim” were alike. A.A. 85.
    Counsel then elicited further testimony stressing Scholberg’s
    limited ability to connect the crime-scene hair to Butler:
    Q: But, your testimony is that you cannot say
    positively that ... the known hair from Mr. Butler is
    the same as the hair that was taken from the clothes of
    the decedent, Mr. Mears? You cannot say positively?
    A: That these hairs originated from the head of the
    defendant?
    Q: Right.
    A: That is correct.
    Q: They could have originated from someone else’s
    head as well?
    A: If all of the characteristics were the same, yes.
    Q: That could be any number of people. You don’t
    have any idea how many people that could be?
    A: I have no statistics to illustrate this any further, no.
    Id. at 86. This testimony was clear, perfectly appropriate,
    consistent with DOJ guidelines, and recognized by the FBI as
    proper “Limiting Language.” Id. at 73.
    19
    The second snippet flagged by the FBI is even more
    obviously immaterial. It involved a small portion of the re-
    cross, the entirety of which is this:
    Q: The relevant statistical comparison would not be
    between the victim’s hair and the defendant’s hair. It
    would be between the microscopic identification you
    could make of one hair and the rest of the community
    that might have the same kind of hair. In other words,
    we don’t know how many other people have the same
    microscopic characteristics of their hair follicles as the
    one that you identified as Mr. Butler’s hair from the
    clothing of Mr. Mears, isn’t that correct?
    A: Yes, that is correct. I have no idea whether anyone
    would have the same microscopic characteristics.
    Q: It could be no one or it could be 200 people.
    A: It could be no one or it could be someone. I don’t
    have any basis to ... assign a number to it. That is
    correct.
    A.A. 90. The obvious takeaway points are that (i) the
    dissimilarity of Butler’s hair and Mears’s hair is beside the
    point, and (ii) the probability that the crime-scene hair was
    Butler’s is unknown. None of that is problematic, and the FBI
    itself designated three lines of this testimony as appropriate
    “Limiting Language.” Id. at 73. Yet the FBI still found Error
    Type 1—associating crime-scene hair to Butler “to the
    exclusion of all others”—from the three lines of testimony in
    which Scholberg indicated agreement with the statement that
    “we don’t know how many other people have the same
    microscopic characteristics of their hair follicles as the one that
    you identified as Mr. Butler’s hair from the clothing of Mr.
    Mears.” Id. at 71–73, 90 (emphasis added). This makes no
    20
    sense. Any overstatement, in suggesting that Scholberg had
    previously identified the crime-scene hair as Butler’s, was built
    into a long, leading question formulated by defense counsel.
    By casually answering “Yes, that is correct,” Scholberg made
    at worst an invited error, which is hardly grounds for setting
    aside a conviction. See, e.g., United States v. Ginyard, 
    215 F.3d 83
    , 88 (D.C. Cir. 2000) (per curiam). In any event, the
    thrust of the exchange was not to suggest that Scholberg had
    positively identified Butler as the murderer. Precisely the
    opposite: defense counsel posited that “we don’t know how
    many      other     people”    have    hair    microscopically
    indistinguishable from Butler’s, and Scholberg repeatedly
    agreed that he had “no idea.” A.A. 90. This disputed testimony
    is actually helpful to Butler.
    In fairness, I should note that the short redirect
    examination raises two similar concerns, although the FBI did
    not identify it as containing any false testimony. First,
    Scholberg briefly repeated the point that he could almost never
    fail to distinguish the hair of a defendant from that of a victim.
    For the reasons explained above, that statement is immaterial
    in this case, even if slightly misleading. Second, the prosecutor
    asked whether Scholberg was testifying that the crime-scene
    hair was “only similar” to Butler’s. A.A. 89. Scholberg
    responded: “No, I am not. When you imply that something is
    similar, you are implying that it is also different in some
    respects. My report and my testimony is that these hairs are
    the same. They are alike in all identifiable microscopic
    characteristics.” 
    Id.
     In isolation, this exchange might
    misleadingly suggest that Scholberg could positively identify
    the crime-scene hair as Butler’s. But all Scholberg said was
    that the hairs “are alike in all identifiable microscopic
    characteristics,” and his direct examination explained at length
    why that did not and could not amount to a positive
    identification. Moreover, defense counsel immediately cleared
    21
    up this point in the re-cross, where Scholberg twice
    acknowledged that he could not positively identify the crime-
    scene hairs as belonging to Butler—or even estimate the
    probability that they belonged to Butler.
    Closing argument reveals much the same pattern: the hair
    evidence played a small role in the government’s overall case,
    and any overstatements were at worst fleeting, marginally
    misleading, and amply corrected. The government addressed
    hair evidence in barely more than one page of its 25-page
    closing. Moreover, its discussion of that evidence was
    carefully hedged. The government reminded the jury that
    Scholberg “couldn’t say whose hair it was,” and it merely
    asked the jury to “consider” the hair evidence rather than to
    “find [Butler] guilty on that evidence.” S.A. 495–96. In
    contrast, the government described Hill’s and Robinson’s
    knowledge of the torn belt and Hill’s knowledge of the water
    in Mears’s throat as “pivotal.” Id. at 530. Likewise, the
    government called the discovery of the keys next to Butler’s
    home “very crucial.” Id. at 492. The government did briefly
    mention the four-in-ten-thousand probability of “two different
    people” having microscopically indistinguishable hair. Id. at
    496. But in Butler’s closing argument, after reminding the jury
    yet again that Scholberg “could not testify that it was Dennis
    Butler’s hair,” defense counsel hammered away—at length and
    with great effectiveness—at the irrelevance of Scholberg’s one
    statement of probability:
    Now, ladies and gentlemen there was some testimony
    regarding the hair and four out of ten thousand. Let’s
    get that straight. The FBI expert testified that out of
    ten thousand cases that he handled only in four cases
    was the hair of the decedent and the hair of the suspect
    alike. That is what he testified to. I want you to
    remember that. From all of the testimony adduced
    22
    from the stand there is no question but that the
    decedent was a white man and Dennis Butler is a black
    man. There can be no similarity of hair. So he can
    add ten thousand to five. Keep that in mind. The
    Government tried to change that testimony around but
    that is what the record shows.
    Id. at 520. My colleagues note that the government, in its
    closing argument and rebuttal, stressed that the crime-scene
    hair and Butler’s hair were “the same in every microscopic
    detail” or characteristic. Id. at 495–96, 535; ante, at 9. But this
    did not highlight false testimony at all. Instead, it reflected the
    legitimate use of expert testimony that Butler, because his hair
    matched the crime-scene hair in all microscopically observable
    respects, could fairly be “included … as a possible source” of
    that hair. A.A. 101.
    C
    This case is unlike any other in which we or the Supreme
    Court have found false testimony to be material. Scholberg’s
    disputed statements do not amount to perjury by “the only eye
    witness to the killing.” Alcorta, 
    355 U.S. at 29
    . Nor do they
    involve lies about plea deals secretly offered to key fact
    witnesses. Giglio, 
    405 U.S. at 151
    ; Napue, 
    360 U.S. at 265
    ;
    Iverson, 637 F.2d at 801. And they are nothing like false
    testimony that paint stains were blood stains. Miller, 
    386 U.S. at 6
    . To the contrary, like the disputed testimony in Sitzmann,
    they involve brief comments made during a lengthy trial and
    dwarfed by “abundant evidence” of guilt. See 893 F.3d at 829.
    Moreover, Napue involved only “uncorrected” false
    testimony, 
    360 U.S. at 269
    , which jurors are “not themselves
    in a position to evaluate,” Kaiser, 
    394 U.S. at
    282 n.5. See
    Long v. Pfister, 
    874 F.3d 544
    , 548 (7th Cir. 2017) (en banc)
    (“All Napue itself holds is that perjury known to the
    23
    prosecution must be corrected before the jury retires.”). Here,
    in contrast, any misleading testimony was quickly corrected, so
    Butler had to show “that the misleading content of the initial
    testimony could nonetheless have affected the judgment of the
    jury.” Straker, 800 F.3d at 604. In any case involving
    corrected testimony, that would be an uphill battle. See, e.g.,
    United States v. Chavez, 
    894 F.3d 593
    , 601 (4th Cir. 2018) (“It
    is difficult to imagine how a conviction could have been
    ‘obtained by the knowing use of perjured testimony’ when that
    testimony was almost immediately corrected by the witness
    himself.”); United States v. Joyner, 
    201 F.3d 61
    , 82 (2d Cir.
    2000) (“cross-examination and jury instructions regarding
    witness credibility will normally purge the taint of false
    testimony”); United States v. Cassino, 
    467 F.2d 610
    , 622 (2d
    Cir. 1972) (“the fact that the jury learned the details of the story
    precludes a successful [Napue] challenge”). Here it is an
    impossibility, given the amount of independent incriminating
    evidence, the fleeting and marginal nature of any misleading
    statements, and the promptness and thoroughness of the
    ensuing corrections.
    Finally, Butler can take no refuge in Ausby. There, the
    disputed testimony constituted “the primary evidence that
    directly contradicted [the] defense theory,” which “plausibly
    explained the remaining evidence” presented by the
    government. 916 F.3d at 1095. But here, there was a mountain
    of untainted evidence that the defense could not plausibly
    explain away. Moreover, the improper testimony in Ausby
    “played a key role” at trial, as “borne out by the prosecution’s
    emphasis” of the point that the hair evidence amounted to a
    “positive” identification. Id. Here, in contrast, the prosecution
    disavowed such an overstatement, and the hair evidence played
    a much smaller part in the overall case. If Ausby was by its
    24
    own reckoning a borderline case of materiality, see 916 F.3d at
    1094–95, then Butler’s case falls far short.3
    *    *        *   *
    Because Butler failed to show that the disputed hair
    evidence in this case was material, we should affirm the district
    court’s judgment declining to set aside his sentence. Firmly
    but respectfully, I dissent.
    3
    My colleagues contend that Ausby is indistinguishable because,
    there as well as here, the hair testimony was equivocal and other
    evidence of guilt was strong. Ante, at 22–24. But in his closing
    rebuttal, the prosecutor in Ausby argued that hair-comparison
    evidence “‘is not a positive means of identification but it amounts to
    a positive means here.’” 916 F.3d at 1095 (emphasis added) (quoting
    rebuttal argument). This in turn built on expert testimony that the
    crime-scene hair matching the defendant’s hair had “unusual”
    characteristics present in “less than five percent” of individuals of
    the defendant’s race. United States v. Ausby, 
    275 F. Supp. 3d 7
    , 16
    (D.D.C. 2017), rev’d, 
    916 F.3d 1089
     (D.C. Cir. 2019). Under the
    FBI’s current thinking, that was an obvious Error Type 2—and was
    quite unlike any testimony given by Scholberg. Other evidence
    made clear that Ausby had entered the victim’s apartment and exited
    it through a window, either on or shortly before the day of the
    murder. See 916 F.3d at 1091. We concluded that the defense
    theory—that Ausby had burgled the apartment a few days before,
    when he was seen loitering in the apartment building—“plausibly
    explained” the evidence. Id. at 1095. In contrast, Butler has no
    plausible innocent explanation of how Hill and Robinson could have
    known about the torn belt or how Hill could have known about the
    water poured down Mears’s throat.