Daimler Trucks North America LLC v. Environmental Protection Agency ( 2013 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued October 22, 2013           Decided December 11, 2013
    No. 12-1433
    DAIMLER TRUCKS NORTH AMERICA LLC, ET AL.,
    PETITIONERS
    v.
    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY,
    RESPONDENT
    NAVISTAR, INC.,
    INTERVENOR
    On Petition for Review of a Final Rule Promulgated
    by the United States Environmental Protection Agency
    Christopher T. Handman argued the cause for petitioners.
    With him on the briefs were Julie R. Domike, R. Latane
    Montague, Sean Marotta, Kathryn L. Lannon, William F. Lane,
    and Alec C. Zacaroli.
    Michele L. Walter, Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice,
    argued the cause for respondent. With her on the brief were
    Robert G. Dreher, Acting Assistant Attorney General, and
    Michael J. Horowitz, Attorney Advisor, U.S. Environmental
    Protection Agency.
    2
    Cary R. Perlman and Laurence H. Levine were on the brief
    for intervenor Navistar, Inc. in support of respondent.
    Before: HENDERSON, ROGERS and TATEL, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the Court by Circuit Judge ROGERS.
    ROGERS, Circuit Judge: To carry out the 1977 amendments
    to the Clean Air Act, the Environmental Protection Agency
    (“EPA”) promulgated a rule in 2001 requiring a 95% reduction
    in nitrogen oxide (“NOx”) emissions by heavy-duty motor
    vehicles by 2010. At the time, no technology existed to achieve
    these reductions. EPA regulations provide, as Congress has
    authorized, for nonconformance penalties (“NCPs”) to protect
    technological laggards by allowing them to pay a penalty for
    engines temporarily unable to meet a new or revised emission
    standard. In a 2012 rulemaking, EPA established NCPs, having
    determined that its three regulatory criteria for issuing these
    penalties were met for heavy heavy-duty diesel engines,
    including that one manufacturer, Navistar, Inc., was a
    technological laggard. Petitioners, who are competitors of
    Navistar, Inc., challenge the 2012 Rule on procedural and
    substantive grounds. Because of the lack of adequate notice and
    opportunity to comment on the amendments to the “substantial
    work” regulation, we grant the petition. In light of EPA’s
    counsel’s statement during oral argument that due to the
    changed circumstances of Navistar, Inc. vacatur would cause no
    harm, we vacate the 2012 Rule.
    I.
    In the 1977 amendments to the Clean Air Act, Congress
    required the Administrator of EPA to “prescribe . . . standards
    applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or
    classes of new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines,
    3
    which in [the Administrator’s] judgment cause, or contribute to,
    air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger
    public health or welfare.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7521
    (a)(1). The
    standards for NOx emissions from heavy-duty vehicles and
    engines manufactured after model year 1983 must “reflect the
    greatest degree of emission reduction achievable through the
    application of technology which the Administrator determines
    will be available for the model year to which such standards
    apply, giving appropriate consideration to cost, energy, and
    safety factors.” 
    Id.
     § 7521(a)(3)(A)(i).
    Before introducing vehicles and engines into commerce,
    manufacturers are required to obtain certificates of conformity
    from EPA demonstrating compliance with relevant emission
    standards. Id. § 7525(a). Certificates shall be issued, however,
    “notwithstanding the failure of such vehicles or engines to meet
    [the applicable] standard if [the] manufacturer pays a
    nonconformance penalty as provided under regulations
    promulgated by the Administrator after notice and opportunity
    for public hearing.” Id. § 7525(g)(1). EPA may not offer NCPs
    where a manufacturer’s level of compliance exceeds the level
    determined to be “practicable” under EPA’s regulations. Id.
    § 7525(g)(2). Also, the penalty amount established under the
    Administrator’s formula must, as relevant here, take into
    account the extent to which emissions exceed the standard,
    increase periodically to create incentives to achieve compliance,
    and “remove any competitive disadvantage” to compliant
    manufacturers. Id. § 7525(g)(3).
    In 1985, EPA promulgated the Phase I Rule establishing the
    regulatory framework for NCPs. Control of Air Pollution from
    New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines;
    Nonconformance Penalties for Heavy-Duty Engines and Heavy-
    Duty Vehicles, Including Light-Duty Trucks, 
    50 Fed. Reg. 35,374
     (Aug. 30 1985) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt. 86). This
    4
    rule identified three criteria that must be met in order for a
    subclass of heavy-duty engines or vehicles to be eligible for
    NCPs. 
    Id. at 35,388
     (to be codified at 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1103
    –87).
    EPA must find that (1) an emission standard is more difficult to
    achieve, either because the standard itself becomes more
    stringent, or because of its interaction with another new or
    revised standard; (2) “substantial work will be required to meet
    the standard”; and (3) “there is likely to be a technological
    laggard.” 
    Id.
     (emphasis added). The rule defined “substantial
    work” to “mean[] the application of technology not previously
    used in an engine or vehicle class or subclass, or the significant
    modification of existing technology or design parameters . . . .”
    
    Id.
     The rule also established the formula for calculating the
    amount of the penalty when the three criteria are met. 
    Id. at 35
    ,394–96 (codified at 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1113
    –87(a)). One factor
    is the cost of compliance with the standard relative to the “upper
    limit,” i.e., the highest emission level at which an engine or
    vehicle can be certified using an NCP, 
    id. at 35,376
    , which the
    Phase I Rule made equal to the previous emission standard, 
    id. at 35,388
     (codified at 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1104
    –87). See also 
    42 U.S.C. § 7525
    (g)(2), (g)(3)(E). An alternate path to certification
    for certain engines that do not meet relevant emission standards
    is averaging, banking, and trading emission credits. 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.007
    –15. See Nat’l Petrochemical & Refiners Ass’n v. EPA,
    
    287 F.3d 1130
    , 1148 (D.C. Cir. 2002) (citing Certification
    Programs for Banking and Trading of Oxides of Nitrogen and
    Particulate Emission Credits for Heavy-Duty Engines, 
    54 Fed. Reg. 22,652
    , 22,666 (May 25, 1989) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R.
    pt. 86)).
    In 2001, EPA promulgated the rule requiring a 95%
    reduction in NOx emissions from heavy-duty engines by 2010.
    Control of Air Pollution from New Motor Vehicles: Heavy-Duty
    Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel Sulfur
    Control Requirements, 
    66 Fed. Reg. 5002
    , 5002 (Jan. 18, 2001)
    5
    (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pts. 69, 80, and 86) (“2001 Rule”).
    Because compliance would require “a new technology solution,”
    
    id. at 5046
    , manufacturers were afforded several years to
    comply with the new 0.20 grams per brake-horsepower-hour
    (g/bhp-hr) standard, which was phased in for heavy-duty diesel
    engines between 2007 and 2010. 
    Id. at 5005
    . By 2010,
    petitioners and other manufacturers had developed selective
    catalytic reduction aftertreatment technology (“SCR”) and had
    succeeded in meeting the 0.20 g/bhp-hr standard. Navistar, Inc.
    pursued an alternative path to compliance, relying on developing
    advanced exhaust gas recirculation technology (“EGR”). When
    the new NOx standard became fully effective in 2010, Navistar,
    Inc. had not reached the 0.20 g/bhp-hr level using EGR, but
    continued to obtain certificates of conformity for its vehicles by
    using banked emission credits. In late 2011, Navistar, Inc.
    advised EPA that its supply of emission credits would be
    inadequate for its model year 2012 heavy heavy-duty engines.
    On January 31, 2012, EPA promulgated an interim rule
    establishing NCPs for manufacturers of heavy heavy-duty diesel
    engines in model years 2012 and 2013 for the 0.20 g/bhp-hr NOx
    standard. Nonconformance Penalties for On-Highway Heavy
    Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines, 
    77 Fed. Reg. 4678
     (to be codified
    at 40 C.F.R. pt. 86) (“Interim Final Rule”). This rule was
    vacated in Mack Trucks, Inc. v. EPA, 
    682 F.3d 87
     (D.C. Cir.
    2012) (“Mack Trucks”), because EPA lacked good cause to
    bypass notice-and-comment requirements.
    The same day as it issued the Interim Final Rule, EPA
    published a notice of proposed rulemaking for a final rule.
    Nonconformance Penalties for On-Highway Heavy-Duty Diesel
    Engines, 
    77 Fed. Reg. 4736
     (Jan. 31, 2012) (to be codified at 40
    C.F.R. pt. 86) (“NPRM”). In the NPRM, EPA stated it believed
    that the three NCP criteria had been met: (1) the “technology
    forcing” 0.20 g/bhp-hr NOx standard was more difficult to meet
    6
    than the previous NOx emission standard; (2) “substantial work
    was required” to meet the 0.20 g/bhp-hr standard because all
    heavy heavy-duty diesel engines certified without relying on
    emission credits were using new aftertreatment systems to meet
    the standard; and (3) there was “a significant likelihood” that
    NCPs would “be needed by an engine manufacturer that ha[d]
    not yet met the requirements for technological reasons” and was
    expected not “to have sufficient credits to cover its entire model
    year 2012 production.” NPRM, 77 Fed. Reg. at 4738 (emphasis
    added). EPA proposed NCPs on the basis of its existing
    formula, as modified to permit setting “the upper limit at a level
    below the previous standard if [EPA] determine[s] that the lower
    level is achievable by all engines,” and “in unusual
    circumstances” above the previous standard, inasmuch as even
    noncompliant manufacturers had achieved the proposed 0.50
    g/bhp-hr emission level. Id. at 4740, 4748–49 (amending 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1104
    –91, “Determination of upper limits,” and 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1105
    –87, “Emission standards for which
    nonconformance penalties are available”).
    EPA promulgated the final rule that petitioners now
    challenge on September 5, 2012. Nonconformance Penalties for
    On-Highway Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines, 
    77 Fed. Reg. 54,384
    (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt. 86) (“2012 Rule”). EPA found
    the three criteria for NCPs had been met for NOx emissions from
    heavy heavy-duty diesel engines, 
    id. at 54,388
    , and set NCPs
    accordingly, 
    id. at 54,402
    . It also amended its regulations on
    upper limits, NCP payment procedures, and the “substantial
    work” criterion. 
    Id. at 54
    ,401–02. In response to comments,
    EPA stated that consistent with allowing technological laggards
    to be able to certify engines, the “substantial work” criterion “is
    to be evaluated based on the total amount of work needed to go
    from meeting the previous standard to meeting the current
    standard, regardless of the timing of such changes.” 
    Id. at 54,389
    . Commenters had objected that although “substantial
    7
    work” had been required to meet the NOx standard when it was
    introduced in 2001, this was no longer true because some
    manufacturers now had technology capable of meeting the
    standard. 
    Id.
     EPA emphasized that “the important question is
    whether manufacturers who were using technology that met the
    previous standard would need to conduct significant work” to
    meet the new standard and that “[q]uestions about work that still
    needs to be done at the point EPA begins an NCP rulemaking”
    are irrelevant to the “substantial work” criterion. 
    Id. at 54,390
    (emphasis in original).
    “To avoid this confusion for future NCPs,” EPA in the 2012
    Rule “clarifi[ed] . . . the regulatory text,” 
    id.,
     by amending 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1103
    –87 to: (1) change the verb tense from
    “substantial work will be required to meet the standard”
    (emphasis added) to “substantial work is required” (emphasis
    added); (2) redefine “substantial work” from including the
    application of “technology not previously used in an engine or
    vehicle class or subclass” to including “technology that was not
    generally used in an engine or vehicle class or subclass to meet
    standards prior to the implementation of the new or revised
    standard”; and (3) add a new last sentence stating: “Substantial
    work is determined by the total amount of work required to meet
    the standard for which the NCP is offered, compared to the
    previous standard, irrespective of when EPA establishes the
    NCP.” Compare Phase I Rule, 50 Fed. Reg. at 35,388 with 2012
    Rule, 77 Fed. Reg. at 54,401.
    II.
    Petitioners challenge the 2012 Rule on procedural and
    substantive grounds. They contend EPA failed to provide
    adequate notice and opportunity for comment before amending
    the regulatory definition of the “substantial work” criterion.
    They contend EPA did likewise before finding that after 2012
    8
    Navistar, Inc. would need to engage in “substantial work” to
    meet the NOx standard. They also contend that EPA erred in
    finding that Navistar, Inc. was a technological laggard, and that
    EPA’s NCP calculation departed from past agency practice
    without rational explanation. For the following reasons we need
    only address the first contention.
    Petitioners and EPA agree that the 2012 Rule revised the
    “substantial work” criterion and appear to disagree only on
    whether the final rule was a logical outgrowth of the proposed
    rule. See Pet’rs Br. 28; Resp’t Br. 22; Reply Br. 4. EPA notes
    that petitioners do not ask the court to rule on “whether EPA’s
    longstanding interpretation of the ‘substantial work’ criterion, as
    reflected in that revision, is a permissible construction of EPA’s
    prior regulation to which EPA would be entitled deference under
    Auer [v. Robbins,] 519 U.S. [452,] 461 [(1997)].” Resp’t Br. 22.
    Petitioners explain that because EPA promulgated a new
    regulation, they made no challenge to EPA’s interpretation of
    the superceded prior regulation in this court. Reply Br. 10 n.2.
    They correctly describe the question now before the court as
    whether EPA improperly amended its regulation without
    warning “so that it would now jibe with EPA’s preferred
    interpretation.” Id.
    “A final rule is a logical outgrowth of the proposed rule
    ‘only if interested parties should have anticipated that the
    change was possible, and thus reasonably should have filed their
    comments on the subject during the notice-and-comment
    period.’” Int’l Union, United Mine Workers of Am. v. Mine
    Safety & Health Admin., 
    626 F.3d 84
    , 94–95 (D.C. Cir. 2010)
    (quoting Int’l Union, United Mine Workers of Am. v. Mine
    Safety & Health Admin., 
    407 F.3d 1250
    , 1259 (D.C. Cir. 2005)).
    Notice of agency action is “crucial to ‘ensure that agency
    regulations are tested via exposure to diverse public comment,
    . . . to ensure fairness to affected parties, and . . . to give affected
    9
    parties an opportunity to develop evidence in the record to
    support their objections to the rule and thereby enhance the
    quality of judicial review’.” Id. at 95 (quoting Int’l Union, 
    407 F.3d at 1259
    ). The court, however, will deem a final rule to be
    a logical outgrowth of a proposed rule “if a new round of notice
    and comment would not provide commentators with their first
    occasion to offer new and different criticisms which the agency
    might find convincing.” 
    Id.
     (quoting Fertilizer Inst. v. EPA,
    
    935 F.2d 1303
    , 1311 (D.C. Cir. 1991)). This avoids the
    “absurdity . . . that the agency can learn from the comments on
    its proposals only at the peril of starting a new procedural round
    of commentary.” Small Refiner Lead Phase-Down Task Force
    v. EPA, 
    705 F.2d 506
    , 546–47 (D.C. Cir. 1983).
    In the NPRM, EPA proposed amendments to its regulations
    on the determination of upper limits, 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1104
    –91,
    and the emission standards for which NCPs are available, 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1105
    –87. NPRM, 77 Fed. Reg. at 4748–49. It did
    not propose, and offered no indication that it was contemplating,
    amendments to the “substantial work” criterion in 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1103
    –87. The NPRM mentioned “substantial work” only
    in describing the “substantial work” criterion and concluding
    that it was satisfied for the 0.20 g/bhp-hr standard. 
    Id. at 4738
    .
    In the 2012 Rule, EPA characterized its amendments to the
    “substantial work” criterion as “clarifying” the regulatory text
    rather than as a substantive amendment. 2012 Rule, 77 Fed.
    Reg. at 54,390. Petitioners, in contrast, maintain that the
    amendments made a significant change because, as comments
    on the proposed rule pointed out, the test set forth in EPA’s
    regulations had always asked whether “substantial work” “will
    be required” to comply with a new or revised emission standard
    not, after the standard became effective, whether “substantial
    work” “was required” in the past. See Pet’rs Br. 20.
    10
    The revisions to the “substantial work” criterion in 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1103
    –87 went beyond mere clarification. Since the
    Phase I Rule, EPA had been required to find that “substantial
    work will be required to meet the standard for which the NCP is
    offered,” 50 Fed. Reg. at 35,388, and in previous NCP
    rulemakings EPA had evaluated the work required to meet the
    new emission standard by looking forward from the time the
    NCP was proposed. See, e.g., Control of Air Pollution from
    New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines;
    Nonconformance Penalties for Heavy-Duty Engines and Heavy-
    Duty Vehicles, Including Heavy Light-Duty Trucks, 
    58 Fed. Reg. 68,532
    , 68,534 (Dec. 28, 1993) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt.
    86); Control of Air Pollution from New Motor Vehicles and New
    Motor Vehicle Engines; Nonconformance Penalties for 1996
    and 1998 Model Year Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty
    Vehicles and Engines— Part II, 
    61 Fed. Reg. 6949
    , 6951 (Feb.
    23, 1996) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt. 86). Under the second
    criterion in the 2012 Rule, EPA is to evaluate the work required
    to go from the old to the new emission standard, regardless of
    when the NCP is offered. 2012 Rule, 77 Fed. Reg. at 54,401.
    These two approaches yield a similar result when an NCP is
    offered at the same time or shortly after the announcement of a
    new emission standard but different inquiries arise when the
    NCP is offered after the new standard has taken effect. The
    technology-forcing NOx standard, see Natural Res. Def. Council
    v. Thomas, 
    805 F.2d 410
    , 428 n.30 (D.C. Cir. 1986), was
    announced in 2001 and became fully effective in 2010. The
    NCP was not proposed until 2012. In these circumstances,
    whether “substantial work” was required to meet the NOx
    standard when it was announced in 2001 and whether
    “substantial work” was required in 2012, two years after it
    became fully effective, are different questions.
    EPA maintains that the amendments to its “substantial
    work” criterion are consistent with its longstanding
    11
    interpretation that it should “look[] forward from the point in
    time at which the new or revised standard is issued.” Resp’t Br.
    27. EPA fails, however, to acknowledge that the 2012 Rule is
    the first rulemaking in which an NCP has been proposed after
    the new emission standard took effect. The timing of the
    offering of these penalties differed from previous NCPs, which
    as demonstrated in the Phase II through VI Rules had been
    proposed before the relevant new emission standards became
    effective.1 By contrast here, although the NOx standard became
    1
    See Control of Air Pollution from New Motor Vehicles and
    New Motor Vehicle Engines; Nonconformance Penalties for Heavy-
    Duty Engines and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Including Light-Duty Trucks,
    
    50 Fed. Reg. 53,454
     (Dec. 31, 1985) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt.
    86) (“Phase II Rule”); Control of Air Pollution from New Motor
    Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Nonconformance Penalties
    for Heavy-Duty Engines and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Including Heavy
    Light-Duty Trucks, 
    55 Fed. Reg. 46,622
     (Nov. 5, 1990) (to be codified
    at 40 C.F.R. pt. 86) (“Phase III Rule”); Control of Air Pollution from
    New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines;
    Nonconformance Penalties for Heavy-Duty Engines and Heavy-Duty
    Vehicles, Including Heavy Light-Duty Trucks, 
    58 Fed. Reg. 68,532
    (Dec. 28, 1993) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt. 86) (“Phase IV Rule”);
    Control of Air Pollution from New Motor Vehicles and New Motor
    Vehicle Engines; Nonconformance Penalties for 1996 Model Year
    Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles, 
    61 Fed. Reg. 6944
     (Feb.
    23, 1996) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt. 86) (“Phase V Rule Part I”);
    Control of Air Pollution from New Motor Vehicles and New Motor
    Vehicle Engines; Nonconformance Penalties for 1996 and 1998 Model
    Year Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Engines—Part
    II, 
    61 Fed. Reg. 6949
     (Feb. 23, 1996) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt.
    86) (“Phase V Rule Part II”); Control of Air Pollution from New
    Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Non-Conformance
    Penalties for 2004 and Later Model Year Emission Standards for
    Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines and Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles, 
    67 Fed. Reg. 51,464
     (Aug. 8, 2002) (to be codified at 40 C.F.R. pt. 86)
    (“Phase VI Rule”). Although the Phase V Rule, which offered NCPs
    12
    fully effective in 2010, Navistar, Inc.’s reliance on banked
    emission credits meant that no affected manufacturer required
    NCPs until 2012. In offering NCPs in this new situation,
    measuring “substantial work” as the amount of work needed to
    go from the old standard to the new standard was incompatible
    with the regulatory text in the Phase I Rule requiring EPA to
    find, before offering NCPs, that “substantial work will be
    required” to meet the new emission standard.
    EPA’s position that the amendments to the “substantial
    work” criterion in the 2012 Rule were a logical outgrowth of the
    proposed rule relies heavily on its claim that petitioners had
    actual notice of the change. See Resp’t Br. 30–31 (citing Small
    Refiner Lead Phase-Down Task Force, 
    705 F.2d 506
    , 549 (D.C.
    Cir. 1983)). For support, EPA points to three documents: a
    letter from EPA to heavy-duty diesel engine manufacturers
    dated February 22, 2010; EPA’s denial of a request by
    petitioners Daimler Trucks North America, LLC and Detroit
    Diesel Corporation for a stay of the Interim Final Rule published
    in January 2012; and the statement in the NPRM that
    “substantial work was required to meet the emission standard,”
    77 Fed. Reg. at 4738. Each of these documents includes a
    statement by EPA finding that “substantial work” was required,
    or was likely required, to meet the NOx standard. Although EPA
    is correct that the documents placed petitioners on notice that
    EPA’s measurement of “substantial work” included work
    completed in the past, they neither stated nor suggested that
    EPA was contemplating amending the text of the second
    criterion adopted in the Phase I Rule.
    No more availing is EPA’s suggestion that the briefing in
    Mack Trucks and comments submitted in response to the NPRM
    for 1996 standards, was finalized in February 1996, we note that the
    NCPs were proposed in 1994, well before the standards took effect.
    13
    demonstrate that petitioners had actual notice of EPA’s change
    to the “substantial work” regulation. Petitioners’ arguments in
    comments that EPA’s interpretation conflicted with the
    regulatory text of 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1103
    –87 demonstrate only that
    they had notice of EPA’s interpretation of the regulation, not
    that they had notice that EPA contemplated changing the
    regulatory text to encompass a backwards-looking inquiry.
    Further, petitioners’ notice of EPA’s interpretation does not
    imply that the public had notice of, or an opportunity to
    comment on, EPA’s changes to the regulation.
    So too, EPA’s position that the amended text of the
    “substantial work” criterion is consistent with twenty-seven
    years of agency practice ignores that the 2012 Rule is the first
    rulemaking in which EPA has proposed NCPs after the new
    emission standard went into effect. EPA’s prior conclusion that
    “substantial work” includes work required to reach the new
    emission standard when that standard is to take effect in the
    future is distinguishable from its revised approach that this is
    also true when NCPs are proposed after the standard has taken
    effect. Contrary to EPA’s suggestion that the 2002 Phase VI
    Rule, 67 Fed. Reg. at 51,464, supra note 1, which also proposed
    NCPs years after a new emission standard was announced, gave
    petitioners notice of its approach, the Phase VI Rule was
    promulgated before the standard announced in 1997 took effect
    in 2004. Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Highway
    Heavy-Duty Engines, 
    62 Fed. Reg. 54,694
     (Oct. 21, 1997) (to be
    codified at 40 C.F.R. pts. 9 and 86). Although the preamble to
    the Phase VI Rule discussed the amount of work that was
    anticipated when the emission standard was promulgated in
    1997, it also addressed the “substantial work” left to be done to
    meet the standard in the future. Phase VI Rule, 67 Fed. Reg. at
    51,466. Regarding the use of technologies that “have not
    previously been used in the on-highway heavy-duty diesel
    market,” EPA stated that it “continue[d] to believe such new
    14
    technologies will be used by a number of engine manufacturers,”
    and that “several manufacturers have indicated in recent
    statements that they will use new emission control technologies
    in order to achieve the 2004 standards.” Id. (emphasis added).
    This forward-looking analysis is consistent with the text of the
    second criterion identified in the Phase I Rule instructing EPA
    to determine whether “substantial work will be required” to
    meet the new standard; it provided no indication that when an
    NCP was proposed years after the new emission standard had
    become effective, EPA would abandon the forward-looking
    analysis and look to “substantial work” completed in the past to
    meet the standard. EPA’s attempt to fit the 2012 Rule’s NCP
    into a consistent twenty-seven-year pattern of rulemaking fails.
    Consequently, we cannot conclude that petitioners, “ex ante,
    should have anticipated the changes to be made in the course of
    the [2012] rulemaking,” City of Waukesha v. EPA, 
    320 F.3d 228
    ,
    246 (D.C. Cir. 2003) (internal quotation omitted), to the
    “substantial work” criterion, 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1103
    –87. If EPA
    wanted to revise its “substantial work” regulation, then it had to
    provide adequate notice and opportunity for comment, as it did
    with respect to the upper limit revision, see NPRM, 77 Fed. Reg.
    at 4740 (proposing to amend 
    40 C.F.R. § 86.1104
    –91), rather
    than making an unannounced change. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7525
    (g)(1); cf. Mack Trucks, 682 F.3d at 92. EPA “entirely
    failed” to provide notice of its intention to amend its regulation
    in the NPRM, and “offered no persuasive evidence that possible
    objections to its final rule[] have been given sufficient
    consideration,” City of Waukesha, 
    320 F.3d at 246
     (internal
    citations omitted), instead treating its revision as a clarification
    rather than a substantive change. EPA’s counsel’s post hoc
    reasoning cannot fill the void. See Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n of
    U.S., Inc. v. State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 50
    (1983).
    15
    Accordingly, we grant the petition. Because the court
    typically vacates rules when an agency “entirely fail[s]” to
    provide notice and comment, Shell Oil Co. v. EPA, 
    950 F.2d 741
    , 752 (D.C. Cir. 1991), and especially in light of EPA’s
    counsel’s statement during oral argument that vacatur would not
    cause any harm because it has become clear that Navistar Inc.’s
    engines will be in compliance with the NOx standard by the
    beginning of 2014, see Oral Argument at 25:55 (Oct. 22, 2013),
    we vacate the 2012 final rule. See Chamber of Commerce v.
    Sec. & Exch. Comm’n, 
    443 F.3d 890
    , 908 (D.C. Cir. 2006)
    (quoting Allied-Signal, Inc. v. Nuclear Regulatory Comm’n, 
    988 F.2d 146
    , 150–51 (D.C. Cir. 1993)).