Osi Pharmaceuticals, LLC v. Apotex Inc. ( 2019 )


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  •   United States Court of Appeals
    for the Federal Circuit
    ______________________
    OSI PHARMACEUTICALS, LLC,
    Appellant
    v.
    APOTEX INC., APOTEX CORP., APOTEX
    PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS INC., APOTEX
    HOLDINGS INC.,
    Appellees
    UNITED STATES,
    Intervenor
    ______________________
    2018-1925
    ______________________
    Appeal from the United States Patent and Trademark
    Office, Patent Trial and Appeal Board in No. IPR2016-
    01284.
    ______________________
    Decided: October 4, 2019
    ______________________
    THOMAS SAUNDERS, Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and
    Dorr LLP, Washington, DC, argued for appellant. Also rep-
    resented by AMY K. WIGMORE, AMANDA L. MAJOR; EMILY R.
    WHELAN, KEVIN M. YURKERWICH, Boston, MA.
    WILLIAM BLAKE COBLENTZ, Cozen O'Connor, Washing-
    ton, DC, argued for appellees. Also represented by BARRY
    2                            OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    P. GOLOB, AARON S. LUKAS, KERRY BRENDAN MCTIGUE.
    DENNIS FAN, Appellate Staff, Civil Division, United
    States Department of Justice, Washington, DC, argued for
    intervenor. Also represented by KATHERINE TWOMEY
    ALLEN, JOSEPH H. HUNT, SCOTT R. MCINTOSH; THOMAS W.
    KRAUSE, JOSEPH MATAL, FARHEENA YASMEEN RASHEED, Of-
    fice of the Solicitor, United States Patent and Trademark
    Office, Alexandria, VA.
    ______________________
    Before NEWMAN, TARANTO, and STOLL, Circuit Judges.
    STOLL, Circuit Judge.
    OSI Pharmaceuticals, LLC appeals the decision of the
    Patent Trial and Appeal Board holding claims 44–46 and
    53 of 
    U.S. Patent No. 6,900,221
     unpatentable as obvious.
    We conclude that the Board’s finding of reasonable expec-
    tation of success is not supported by substantial evidence
    and reverse the Board’s obviousness determination.
    BACKGROUND
    I. Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer and the ’221 Patent
    Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was the leading
    cause of cancer deaths in 2000, claiming more than 1 mil-
    lion lives. The standard for treating NSCLC at the time
    was chemotherapy, which ameliorated some lung cancer-
    related symptoms, but was limited in use due to toxicity.
    Chemotherapy nonspecifically kills normal proliferating
    cells in addition to cancerous cells, and can result in the
    patient experiencing side effects such as nausea, vomiting,
    hair loss, and neuropathy.
    By the late 1990s, there was a recognized need for a
    new therapy that would be both effective and well toler-
    ated. In response, investigators pursued targeted thera-
    pies as alternatives to chemotherapy. One avenue of
    research involved investigating agents that inhibit the
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                             3
    epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). Activation of the
    EGFR triggers a cascade of events leading to cell reproduc-
    tion, and it was hypothesized that inhibiting the EGFR
    would be beneficial in treating tumor cells. EGFR inhibi-
    tors were investigated as potential agents for treating
    NSCLC, but many of these compounds failed in clinical tri-
    als.
    Cancer treatment is highly unpredictable.            Even
    though the EGFR was identified in some cancers as a drug
    target, the in vitro (i.e., in a test tube) effectiveness of a
    drug in inhibiting the EGFR turned out to be a poor proxy
    for how effective that drug actually was in treating cancer
    in vivo (i.e., in the body). Numerous EGFR inhibitors that
    showed promising in vitro activity failed for a variety of
    reasons. These included poor pharmacokinetics due to poor
    absorption or rapid metabolism (or both), undesirable
    drug-drug interactions, drug toxicity due to drug binding
    onto healthy cells, drug toxicity due to binding onto other
    receptors, and metabolite toxicity. Some drug candidates
    were limited by one or more of these shortcomings, further
    underscoring the unpredictable nature of cancer treat-
    ment.
    A drug compound must pass three phases of human
    clinical trials in order to obtain FDA approval. A threshold
    step is to gain the FDA’s permission to test the compound
    in humans in the first place. After a drug developer has
    conducted preclinical studies, i.e., tested the compound in
    vitro (in a test tube; outside of a living organism) and in
    animals, it submits an Investigational New Drug (IND) ap-
    plication to the FDA. An IND submission includes an in-
    vestigator’s brochure, which discloses information such as
    animal safety and preclinical efficacy data, clinical trial
    proposals, and toxicology data. If the FDA approves the
    IND, then Phase I studies can commence. Phase I studies
    involve administering the compound to a small group of
    healthy volunteers or advanced cancer patients with a va-
    riety of tumor types. Phase I studies are conducted
    4                             OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    primarily to evaluate safety, to determine a safe dosing
    range, and to identify any side effects.
    Clinical trials do not focus on efficacy until Phase II,
    which typically involves administering the compound to a
    specific patient population. The goals of a Phase II study
    include evaluating efficacy in specific patient populations,
    determining dose tolerance and optimal dosage, and iden-
    tifying possible adverse effects and safety risks. Phase III
    studies are larger scale and are undertaken to evaluate
    clinical efficacy and safety in an expanded patient popula-
    tion. After completing Phase III studies, a developer sub-
    mits a New Drug Application to the FDA for approval.
    A great majority of therapies for NSCLC failed in clin-
    ical trials. “In non-small-cell lung cancer alone, between
    1990 and 2005, a total of 1,631 new drugs were studied in
    phase II. Only seven of these new agents gained FDA ap-
    proval.” Govindan at 1; 1 J.A. 4131. One of the compounds
    that ultimately gained FDA approval was N-(3-
    ethynylphenyl)-6,7-bis(2-methoxyethoxy)-4-quinazo-
    linamine, also known as erlotinib. OSI markets erlotinib
    under the name Tarceva®.
    After years of study, the inventors of erlotinib discov-
    ered that it was an effective targeted therapy for NSCLC.
    They claimed their invention in the ’221 patent. OSI’s
    ’221 patent issued on May 31, 2005 and claims priority to
    three provisional applications filed on November 11, 1999,
    March 30, 2000, and May 23, 2000. The ’221 patent is
    listed in the Orange Book for Tarceva®. Claims 44–46 and
    53 are at issue in this appeal and are reproduced below:
    1  Ramaswamy Govindan, MD, Phase III Failure
    Rates in Oncology Drugs Unacceptable, 16 ONCOLOGY
    NEWS INT’L at 1 (Aug. 2007), https://www.cancernetwork.
    com/articles/phase-iii-failure-rates-oncology-drugs-
    unacceptable.
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                             5
    44. A method for the treatment of NSCLC (non
    small cell lung cancer), pediatric malignancies, cer-
    vical and other tumors caused or promoted by hu-
    man papilloma virus (H[P]V), Barrett's esophagus
    (pre-malignant syndrome), or neoplastic cutaneous
    diseases in a mammal comprising administering to
    said mammal a therapeutically effective amount of
    a pharmaceutical composition comprised of at least
    one of N-(3-ethynylphenyl)-6,7-bis(2-methoxyeth-
    oxy)-4-quinazolinamine, or pharmaceutically ac-
    ceptable salts thereof in anhydrous or hydrate
    forms, and a carrier.
    45. The method of claim 44, wherein the treatment
    further comprises a palliative or neo-adjuvant/ad-
    juvant monotherapy.
    46. The method of claim 44, wherein the treatment
    further comprises blocking epidermal growth fac-
    tor receptors (EGFR).
    53. The method of claim 44 for the treatment of
    non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
    ’221 patent col. 35 ll. 26–42, 64–65. It is not disputed that
    the date of invention for the asserted claims is March 30,
    2000.
    6                               OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    II. Asserted Prior Art
    The Board determined that ’221 patent claims 44–46
    and 53 would have been obvious over Schnur 2 in view of
    Gibbs3 or OSI’s 10-K. 4 We discuss each reference in turn.
    A. Schnur
    Schnur relates to a class of “4-(substituted phenyla-
    mino)quinazoline derivatives which are useful in the treat-
    ment of hyperproliferative diseases, such as cancers, in
    mammals.” Schnur col. 1 ll. 9–11. Schnur specifically dis-
    closes 105 different compounds recited as examples. 
    Id.
    at col. 17 l. 5–col. 36 l. 61. Erlotinib is listed as a preferred
    compound, and a method for synthesizing erlotinib is de-
    scribed. 
    Id.
     at col. 4 ll. 8–9, col. 22 ll. 30–49. Schnur states
    that these compounds are “potent inhibitors of the erbB
    family of oncogenic and protooncogenic protein tyrosine ki-
    nases such as epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR),
    erbB2, HER3, or HER4 and thus are all adapted to thera-
    peutic use as antiproliferative agents (e.g., anticancer) in
    mammals, particularly humans.” 
    Id.
     at col. 14 ll. 1–6. It
    also discloses that the compounds in this class are thera-
    peutics “for the treatment of a variety of human tumors
    (renal, liver, kidney, bladder, breast, gastric, ovarian, colo-
    rectal, prostate, pancreatic, lung, vulval, thyroid, hepatic
    carcinomas, sarcomas, glioblastomas, various head and
    neck tumors), and other hyperplastic conditions such as be-
    nign hyperplasia of the skin (e.g., psoriasis) or prostate.”
    
    Id.
     at col. 14 ll. 7–14 (emphasis added). While Schnur
    states that lung cancer is one of the many conditions that
    2   
    U.S. Patent No. 5,747,498
    .
    3   Jackson B. Gibbs, Anticancer Drug Targets:
    Growth Factors and Growth Factor Signaling, 105 J.
    CLINICAL INVESTIGATION 9, 9–13 (2000).
    4    OSI Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Annual Report (Form
    10-K) (Sept. 30, 1998).
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                                7
    could be treated by this class of compounds, it does not dis-
    cuss NSCLC.
    B. Gibbs
    Gibbs is a review article authored by Dr. Jackson B.
    Gibbs. Gibbs discusses various signaling mechanisms in
    the cell and how they are associated with tumor malig-
    nancy. The article reviews and discusses the data of over
    thirty published research studies, including one discussing
    erlotinib, which Gibbs refers to as CP-358,774. Gibbs
    states that the EGFR is a drug development target and
    notes:
    ZD-1839 and [erlotinib], competitive inhibitors of
    ATP binding to the [EGFR]’s active site, are cur-
    rently in clinical trials (12, 13). . . . However, these
    compounds appear to have good anti-cancer activ-
    ity in preclinical models, with an acceptable thera-
    peutic index, particularly in patients with non-
    small cell lung cancer.
    J.A. 1406. Gibbs’s reference 12 refers to Woodburn, 5 a
    study investigating the antitumor effects of the ZD-1839
    compound—a different compound than erlotinib—on sev-
    eral solid human cancers including NSCLC. Woodburn
    does not discuss erlotinib at all. Reference 13 refers to Mo-
    yer, 6 which discloses how erlotinib inhibits EGFR in mouse
    liver tumors and in human HN5 tumors. J.A. 1524. Moyer
    does not discuss NSCLC at all, let alone suggest that
    5  J.R. Woodburn et al., ZD1839, An Epidermal
    Growth Factor Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Selected for Clin-
    ical Development, 38 PROC. AM. ASS’N FOR CANCER RES.
    ANN. MEETING 633, 633 (1997).
    6  J.D. Moyer, et al., Induction of Apoptosis and Cell
    Cycle Arrest by CP-358,774, an Inhibitor of Epidermal
    Growth Factor Receptor Tyrosine Kinase, 57 CANCER RES.
    4838, 4838–48 (1997).
    8                             OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    erlotinib could treat NSCLC. There is no data regarding
    the use of erlotinib to treat NSCLC in Gibbs or in any of
    the references cited in Gibbs. Dr. Gibbs, the author, con-
    firmed this in a declaration submitted to the Board:
    Based on references 12 and 13, the abstracts from
    the 1999 ASCO and AACR Conferences, and my
    own personal recollection, my research at the time
    of my article did not identify any information sug-
    gesting that [erlotinib] exhibited anti-tumor activ-
    ity in NSCLC. I was (and still am) not aware of any
    published abstracts or articles describing the clini-
    cal or preclinical response of a NSCLC tumor to [er-
    lotinib] that were available as of the time my
    article was published, and I reviewed no such ab-
    stracts or articles in drafting my article.
    J.A. 4803.
    C. OSI’s 10-K
    The SEC requires domestic public companies to submit
    a Form 10-K annually and has stated that the “Form 10-K
    provides a comprehensive overview of the company’s busi-
    ness and financial condition and includes audited financial
    statements.” J.A. 5313. OSI’s 10-K, filed for the fiscal year
    that ended on September 30, 1998, disclosed varied busi-
    ness information, including information on OSI’s finances,
    product development, research, competition, and manufac-
    turing. See J.A. 1411–88. In the section titled Product De-
    velopment and Research Programs, OSI’s 10-K stated:
    [Erlotinib], which targets a variety of cancers in-
    cluding ovarian, pancreatic, non-small cell lung
    and head and neck, achieved a significant mile-
    stone with the completion of Phase I safety trials
    and the initiation of Phase II clinical trials in the
    United States in cancer patients. [Erlotinib] is a
    potent, selective and orally active inhibitor of the
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                             9
    epidermal growth factor receptor, a key oncogene
    in these cancers.
    J.A. 1415.
    It is undisputed that OSI’s 10-K discloses no data re-
    garding erlotinib’s effect on NSCLC. See J.A. 4562. OSI’s
    expert, Dr. Paul Bunn, explained that IND submissions
    (required for Phase I studies) include an investigator’s bro-
    chure, which Dr. Bunn explained has the following infor-
    mation:
    So you have to have toxicology studies so you know
    what a lethal dose is, you have to have pharmaco-
    kinetic data so you know how the drug behaves in
    an animal, and you have to have a clinical trial,
    proposed clinical trial. The clinical trial has to be
    approved by an IRB before an IND would be acti-
    vated. And you have to have all the preclinical ef-
    ficacy data, as well as the animal safety data.
    J.A. 1991–92 (emphasis added). He further testified that
    the investigator’s brochure “would list the indications that
    you are going to study and the clinical trial that has to ac-
    company, would specify what patients are being included.”
    J.A. 1993.
    III. Procedural History
    The Board instituted IPR on grounds that claims 44–
    46 and 53 of the ’221 patent would have been obvious over
    Schnur in view of Gibbs or OSI’s 10-K. Apotex Inc. v. OSI
    Pharm. LLC, No. IPR2016-01284, 
    2018 WL 335096
    , at *2
    (P.T.A.B. Jan. 8, 2018) (“Decision”). The parties agreed
    that the definition of “treating” provided in the specifica-
    tion is the proper construction of the term. The ’221 patent
    defines “treating” as “reversing, alleviating, inhibiting the
    progress of, or preventing the disorder or condition to
    which such term applies, or one or more symptoms of such
    disorder or condition.” ’221 patent col. 14 ll. 9–13. The
    Board clarified that the term “therapeutically effective
    10                           OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    amount” in claim 44 means “an amount sufficient to treat
    the mammal” as defined by the patent specification. Deci-
    sion, 
    2018 WL 335096
    , at *3.
    The Board reviewed the prior art references and found
    that a person of ordinary skill “would have combined Gibbs
    or OSI 10-K with Schnur and had a reasonable expectation
    of success of achieving the invention of challenged claims
    44 and 53.” 
    Id. at *11
    . It found that Schnur discloses all
    of the limitations of claims 44 and 53 except for the treat-
    ment of NSCLC. 
    Id.
    The Board found that the disclosures in OSI’s 10-K that
    erlotinib targeted a variety of cancers including NSCLC,
    and that erlotinib had entered Phase II clinical trials,
    would have provided a person of ordinary skill with a rea-
    sonable expectation of success in light of Schnur’s teach-
    ings. 
    Id. at *15
    . Although nothing in the record indicated
    that any preclinical data related to NSCLC existed, the
    Board concluded that an ordinary artisan would under-
    stand from the commencement of Phase I studies that “pre-
    clinical animal efficacy data” had been submitted to the
    FDA. 
    Id. at *12
    .
    It found similarly with regard to Gibbs, focusing on
    Gibbs’s disclosure that “[ZD-1839 and erlotinib] appear to
    have good anti-cancer activity in preclinical models, with
    an acceptable therapeutic index particularly in patients
    with non-small cell lung cancer.” 
    Id. at *17
    . Although un-
    supported by any data or the cited Moyer or Woodburn ref-
    erences, the Board credited and relied on this statement.
    It also discounted the testimony of Dr. Gibbs—the author
    of the Gibbs article—who declared that his article was not
    based on any clinical or preclinical data showing the effect
    of erlotinib on NSCLC. 
    Id. at *18
    . The Board ultimately
    concluded that claims 44 and 53 “are rendered obvious by
    the combination of Schnur and OSI’s 10-K, as well as the
    combination of Schnur and Gibbs.” 
    Id. at *22
    . Because
    OSI did not separately argue claims 45–46, the Board
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                           11
    concluded that those claims were also unpatentable for the
    same reasons. 
    Id.
    OSI appeals, and we have jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. § 1295
    (a)(4)(A).
    DISCUSSION
    We review the Board’s legal conclusions de novo and its
    fact findings for substantial evidence. Intelligent Bio-Sys.,
    Inc. v. Illumina Cambridge Ltd., 
    821 F.3d 1359
    , 1366
    (Fed. Cir. 2016). Substantial evidence is “such relevant ev-
    idence as a reasonable mind might accept as adequate to
    support a conclusion.” Consol. Edison Co. v. N.L.R.B.,
    
    305 U.S. 197
    , 229 (1938). The substantial evidence stand-
    ard asks “whether a reasonable fact finder could have ar-
    rived at the agency’s decision,” and “involves examination
    of the record as a whole, taking into account evidence that
    both justifies and detracts from an agency’s decision.” In
    re Gartside, 
    203 F.3d 1305
    , 1312 (Fed. Cir. 2000). The Su-
    preme Court “has stressed the importance of not simply
    rubber-stamping agency factfinding. . . . The [Administra-
    tive Procedure Act] requires meaningful review; and its en-
    actment meant stricter judicial review of agency
    factfinding than Congress believed some courts had previ-
    ously conducted.” Dickinson v. Zurko, 
    527 U.S. 150
    , 162
    (1999). “Mere speculation” is not substantial evidence. See
    Intellectual Ventures I LLC v. Motorola Mobility LLC,
    
    870 F.3d 1320
    , 1331 (Fed. Cir. 2017).
    In the district court litigation setting, where to avoid
    summary judgment against the plaintiff “there must be ev-
    idence on which [a] jury could reasonably find for the plain-
    tiff,” the Supreme Court has explained that the assessment
    of what the jury could reasonably find “necessarily impli-
    cates the substantive evidentiary standard of proof that
    would apply at the trial on the merits,” and “must be
    guided by the substantive evidentiary standards that apply
    to the case.” Anderson v. Liberty Lobby, Inc., 
    477 U.S. 242
    ,
    252–56 (1986) (discussing standard for directed verdict).
    12                            OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    Accordingly, substantial evidence is not a fixed quantum of
    evidence, and may only be determined with respect to the
    standard of proof. See Eli Lilly & Co. v. Aradigm Corp.,
    
    376 F.3d 1352
    , 1363 (Fed. Cir. 2004) (“[I]n reviewing
    whether the evidence supports a finding of fact . . . the de-
    cision might be affirmed if the standard of proof below were
    ‘weight of evidence’ and might be reversed on the same rec-
    ord if the standard of proof were ‘clear and convincing’ evi-
    dence.” (alteration in original) (quoting SSIH Equip. S.A.
    v. U.S. Int’l Trade Comm’n, 
    718 F.2d 365
    , 383 (Fed. Cir.
    1983) (Nies, J., additional comments)). The same point log-
    ically applies to review of the Board’s finding. See In re
    Hotels.com, L.P., 
    573 F.3d 1300
    , 1302 (Fed. Cir. 2009) (sub-
    stantial evidence inquiry in review of Patent Office trade-
    mark decision must take account of standard of proof). In
    the IPR here, the burden was on Apotex to establish inva-
    lidity by a preponderance of the evidence. See Cuozzo
    Speed Techs., LLC v. Lee, 
    136 S. Ct. 2131
    , 2144 (2016).
    OSI challenges the Board’s obviousness determination,
    arguing that the Board’s finding of a reasonable expecta-
    tion of success is not supported by substantial evidence. It
    also raises a challenge to the constitutionality of IPR. We
    address each issue in turn.
    I
    “Obviousness is a question of law based on underlying
    findings of fact.” In re Kubin, 
    561 F.3d 1351
    , 1355
    (Fed. Cir. 2009). “An obviousness determination requires
    finding that a person of ordinary skill in the art would have
    been motivated to combine or modify the teachings in the
    prior art and would have had a reasonable expectation of
    success in doing so.” Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Broad Inst.,
    Inc., 
    903 F.3d 1286
    , 1291 (Fed. Cir. 2018). “Whether a per-
    son of ordinary skill in the art would have been motivated
    to modify or combine teachings in the prior art, and
    whether he would have had a reasonable expectation of
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                             13
    success, are questions of fact.” 
    Id.
     (quoting In re Stepan
    Co., 
    868 F.3d 1342
    , 1345–46 (Fed. Cir. 2017)).
    The Board found that the asserted combinations of
    Schnur with Gibbs and Schnur with OSI’s 10-K each would
    have provided a person of ordinary skill with a reasonable
    expectation of success in using erlotinib to treat NSCLC in
    a mammal. Decision, 
    2018 WL 335096
    , at *22. We con-
    clude that these findings are not supported by substantial
    evidence. As an initial matter, in reaching its conclusion,
    the Board misinterpreted the asserted references to teach
    more than substantial evidence supports. When the refer-
    ences are properly read, the Board’s finding that the as-
    serted references provide a reasonable expectation of
    success also is not supported by substantial evidence. To
    be clear, the claims require only treatment of a mammal
    with erlotinib—efficacy in humans is not required. But the
    asserted references do not disclose any data or other infor-
    mation about erlotinib’s efficacy in treating NSCLC. The
    record does not contain any clinical (human) data or pre-
    clinical (animal) data. It does not even include in vitro (test
    tube) data regarding erlotinib’s effect on NSCLC. At the
    same time, it is undisputed that NSCLC treatment was
    highly unpredictable with an over 99.5% rate of failure for
    drugs entering Phase II clinical studies. On this record, we
    are not persuaded that a reasonable factfinder could con-
    clude that a person of ordinary skill would have reasonably
    expected success based on the combination of Schnur and
    Gibbs or Schnur and OSI’s 10-K.
    A
    We begin by addressing the Board’s erroneous reading
    of Gibbs. The Board found that there is a “clear inference”
    in Gibbs that “erlotinib has anti-cancer activity against
    non-small cell lung cancer.” Decision, 
    2018 WL 335096
    ,
    at *17. This finding is not supported by substantial evi-
    dence.
    14                            OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    Gibbs discloses the following:
    ZD-1839 and [erlotinib], competitive inhibitors of
    ATP binding to the receptor’s active site, are cur-
    rently in clinical trials (12, 13). Their mechanism
    of action has led to some concern about safety,
    given the variety and physiological significance of
    protein kinases and other enzymes that bind ATP.
    However, these compounds appear to have good
    anti-cancer activity in preclinical models, with an
    acceptable therapeutic index, particularly in pa-
    tients with non-small cell lung cancer.
    J.A. 1406 (emphases added). Gibbs is a review article that
    collects, reviews, and analyzes other research studies. As
    such, the above passage relies on references 12 and 13 to
    support its discussion about anti-cancer activity. And be-
    cause Dr. Gibbs was not reporting on his own first-hand re-
    search, the only support for the sentence that “these
    compounds appear to have good anti-cancer activity
    . . . particularly in patients with non-small cell lung can-
    cer” comes from references 12 and 13.
    Reference 12 is Woodburn, which discloses that ZD-
    1839 “shows antitumor activity in a broad range of human
    solid tumor xenografts” including NSCLC. J.A. 4124.
    There is no mention of erlotinib in Woodburn. Refer-
    ence 13 is Moyer, which discloses that erlotinib shows anti-
    cancer activity in human head and neck tumors (xeno-
    grafted in mice), mouse liver tumors, and human colorectal
    cell-lines. See J.A. 1524. Moyer does not mention NSCLC
    at all. Apotex’s expert, Dr. Giaccone, agreed: “Q. But we’ve
    agreed that Moyer does not talk about non-small cell lung
    cancer, correct? A. Yes.” J.A. 4602.
    Moyer and Woodburn are the only two references cited
    in Gibbs supporting the statement that ZD-1839 and erlo-
    tinib show good anti-cancer activity “in patients with non-
    small cell lung cancer.” Reading Gibbs in the context of its
    cited articles reveals that this statement cannot be
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                             15
    referring to erlotinib. That is because only Woodburn men-
    tions NSCLC, and Woodburn does not mention erlotinib at
    all. Indeed, there is no evidence that a publication discuss-
    ing erlotinib’s effect on NSCLC existed at the time Gibbs
    was published. Dr. Gibbs himself confirmed in a declara-
    tion before the Board that he was not aware of any such
    publication and that he reviewed no such publication when
    drafting his article. See J.A. 4803.
    On this record, the Board’s finding that there is a “clear
    inference” in Gibbs that “erlotinib has anti-cancer activity
    against non-small cell lung cancer” is thus not supported
    by substantial evidence.       Decision, 
    2018 WL 335096
    ,
    at *17. The substantial evidence standard “involves exam-
    ination of the record as a whole, taking into account evi-
    dence that both justifies and detracts from an agency’s
    decision.” In re Gartside, 
    203 F.3d at 1312
    . The Board
    erred by not properly considering that none of the cited ar-
    ticles supported its reading of Gibbs, as well as Dr. Gibbs’s
    testimony to that effect.
    B
    We turn next to the Board’s findings on reasonable ex-
    pectation of success. The Board found that the asserted
    combinations of Schnur with Gibbs and Schnur with OSI’s
    10-K each would have provided a person of ordinary skill
    with a reasonable expectation of success in using erlotinib
    to treat NSCLC in a mammal. Decision, 
    2018 WL 335096
    ,
    at *22. We conclude that, properly read, these combina-
    tions do not provide substantial evidence supporting the
    Board’s findings of reasonable expectation of success.
    Turning first to Schnur in view of Gibbs, the asserted
    references do not disclose any information about erlotinib’s
    efficacy in treating NSCLC in a mammal. Schnur broadly
    discloses at least 105 compounds for the treatment of
    twelve different types of cancer. There is no dispute that
    Schnur fails to disclose any in vitro or in vivo efficacy data
    for erlotinib or otherwise suggest the use of erlotinib to
    16                            OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    treat NSCLC. See J.A. 5389. Schnur’s deficiencies are not
    cured by Gibbs. Properly read in context, Gibbs discloses
    only that erlotinib inhibits the EGFR and has good anti-
    cancer activity in some cancers, not including NSCLC.
    These references thus contain no data or other promising
    information regarding erlotinib’s efficacy in treating
    NSCLC.
    The lack of erlotinib-NSCLC efficacy data or other in-
    dication of success here is significant because of the highly
    unpredictable nature of treating NSCLC, which is illus-
    trated by the over 99.5% failure rate of drugs entering
    Phase II. See J.A. 4131. Indeed, this failure rate includes
    only drug candidates that were promising enough to make
    it to Phase II trials, and does not even take into account all
    of the drug candidates that failed in the preclinical stage
    and in Phase I studies. Further, it is undisputed that a
    drug’s success in treating one type of cancer does not nec-
    essarily translate to success in treating a different type of
    cancer, which underscores the unpredictability in cancer
    treatment generally. Apotex’s own expert Dr. Giaccone ad-
    mitted as much:
    Q: And do you agree that some drugs may work for
    certain tumor types, but not others?
    ...
    A: Again, in general terms, drugs can work on some
    specific tumor types and not others.
    Q: So just because a compound has been shown to
    treat one type of cancer does not mean it will suc-
    ceed in treating another type of cancer, correct?
    A: That’s correct.
    J.A. 4532. And while EGFR was a drug development tar-
    get for cancer, there is no finding by the Board and no as-
    sertion by Apotex that EGFR inhibition alone is indicative
    of treatment success. Thus, there is not only a complete
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                             17
    absence of data regarding the effect of erlotinib on NSCLC,
    but also a complete absence of an indicator or mechanism
    on which a person of ordinary skill could rely to reasonably
    expect success.
    The combination of Schnur and OSI’s 10-K similarly
    fails to provide a reasonable expectation of success. In find-
    ing that Apotex had met its burden of establishing a rea-
    sonable expectation of success, the Board emphasized the
    10-K’s statement that erlotinib had completed Phase I clin-
    ical trials. It also relied on Dr. Bunn’s testimony that a
    drug’s IND submission contains preclinical efficacy and an-
    imal safety data. The Board then found that “Dr. Bunn’s
    testimony is evidence that the ordinary artisan would un-
    derstand that the filing of an IND and investigative bro-
    chures with the FDA, which need to be submitted to the
    FDA before starting Phase I trials, require preclinical ani-
    mal efficacy data.” Decision, 
    2018 WL 335096
    , at *12. It
    also cited Dr. Giaccone’s testimony that the claim limita-
    tion “therapeutically effective amount” can be met by a
    showing of a therapeutic benefit in an animal, i.e., in a pre-
    clinical study. 
    Id. at *13
    . From this, the Board found that
    a person of ordinary skill would have reasonably expected
    success in combining Schnur with OSI’s 10-K. 
    Id. at *15
    .
    Notably absent from this combination, however, is any
    data or other information regarding erlotinib’s effect on
    NSCLC. There is nothing in OSI’s 10-K suggesting the ex-
    istence of erlotinib preclinical efficacy data that is specific
    to NSCLC. Even if a skilled artisan could presume that
    some preclinical data exists, there is no basis for assuming
    that the data pertains to NSCLC as opposed to other can-
    cers. And just because the EGFR is targeted by a drug does
    not necessarily mean that the drug will treat NSCLC. See
    J.A. 4695 (Dr. Bunn testifying that several EGFR inhibi-
    tors that showed promising in vitro activity failed later in
    the drug development process).
    Moreover, between 1990 and 2005, a period that in-
    cludes the time of the invention, there were 1,630 other
    18                             OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    new drug compounds that, like erlotinib, targeted NSCLC
    and were studied in Phase II trials. The failure rate for
    these compounds was 99.5%. The Board did not properly
    consider OSI’s 10-K statement in light of the 99.5% failure
    rate of the other 1,630 drugs entering Phase II trials for the
    treatment of NSCLC. Given this high failure rate, a fact
    finder could not reasonably find that the 10-K statement
    combined with Schnur would have been sufficient to create
    a reasonable expectation of success. These references pro-
    vide no more than hope—and hope that a potentially prom-
    ising drug will treat a particular cancer is not enough to
    create a reasonable expectation of success in a highly un-
    predictable art such as this. Indeed, given a 99.5% failure
    rate and no efficacy data or any other reliable indicator of
    success, the only reasonable expectation at the time of the
    invention was failure, not success. It is only with the ben-
    efit of hindsight that a person of skill in the art would have
    had a reasonable expectation of success in view of the as-
    serted references.
    To be clear, we do not hold today that efficacy data is
    always required for a reasonable expectation of success.
    Nor are we requiring “absolute predictability of success.”
    See Appellee’s Br. 39. We conclude only that, on these par-
    ticular facts, a reasonable fact finder could not find a rea-
    sonable expectation of success. The Board’s finding is thus
    not supported by substantial evidence, and accordingly we
    reverse its obviousness determination.
    II
    OSI also challenged the constitutionality of the Board’s
    IPR decision in its opening appellate brief. 7         See
    7  We exercise our discretion and reach OSI’s argu-
    ment rather than finding that OSI waived this issue by fail-
    ing to present it to the Board. See In re DBC, 
    545 F.3d 1373
    , 1379–80 (Fed. Cir. 2008) (noting “discretion to reach
    OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.                           19
    Appellant’s Br. 49–50. Specifically, OSI questioned the
    constitutionality of retroactively applying IPRs to pre-AIA
    patents like the ’221 patent and noted that the Supreme
    Court’s decision in Oil States Energy Services, LLC v.
    Greene’s Energy Group, LLC, 
    138 S. Ct. 1365
     (2018), did
    not reach this issue. See Appellant’s Br. 49–50. After OSI
    submitted its opening appellate brief, the government in-
    tervened to defend the Board. See Motion of United States
    for Leave to Intervene, OSI Pharm., LLC v. Apotex Inc.,
    No. 18-1925 (Fed. Cir. Nov. 5, 2018), ECF No. 29.
    Following oral argument in this case, we issued multi-
    ple decisions holding that the application of IPR to pre-AIA
    patents does not violate the Constitution. See e.g., Celgene
    Corp. v. Peter, 
    931 F.3d 1342
    , 1362 (Fed. Cir. 2019); Ar-
    threx, Inc. v. Smith & Nephew, Inc., No. 2018-1584, 
    2019 WL 3938271
    , at *7 (Fed. Cir. Aug. 21, 2019). In Celgene,
    931 F.3d at 1359, we explained that pre-AIA patents were
    issued subject to both district court and Patent Office va-
    lidity proceedings. Though IPR differs from district court
    and pre-AIA Patent Office proceedings, we held that those
    differences were not sufficiently substantive or significant
    such that a “constitutional issue” is created when IPR is
    applied to pre-AIA patents. Id. at 1362.
    The government cited our decisions as supplemental
    authority under Fed. R. App. P. 28(j), and in response, OSI
    conceded that our decisions “foreclose [OSI’s] constitu-
    tional challenge at the panel stage.” Response of Appellant
    OSI to Supplemental Authority at 1, OSI Pharm., LLC v.
    Apotex Inc., No. 18-1925 (Fed. Cir. Aug. 22, 2019), ECF
    No. 60. Accordingly, we hold that the Board’s decision does
    not create a constitutional issue.
    issues raised for the first time on appeal” but holding party
    waived constitutional challenge based on Appointments
    Clause by failing to raise it before the Board).
    20                           OSI PHARMS., LLC v. APOTEX INC.
    CONCLUSION
    We have considered Apotex’s remaining arguments
    and find them unpersuasive. The Board’s finding of a rea-
    sonable expectation of success is not supported by substan-
    tial evidence.    Accordingly, we reverse the Board’s
    determination of obviousness.
    REVERSED