Boatmon v. Hhs ( 2019 )


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  •   United States Court of Appeals
    for the Federal Circuit
    ______________________
    CHASE BOATMON, MAURINA CUPID, PARENTS
    OF J.B., DECEASED,
    Petitioners-Appellants
    v.
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
    SERVICES,
    Respondent-Appellee
    ______________________
    2018-2333
    ______________________
    Appeal from the United States Court of Federal Claims
    in No. 1:13-vv-00611-TCW, Judge Thomas C. Wheeler.
    ______________________
    Decided: November 7, 2019
    ______________________
    JOSEPH PEPPER, Conway Homer, PC, Boston, MA, ar-
    gued for petitioners-appellants. Also represented by
    RONALD C. HOMER.
    THOMAS G. WARD, Torts Branch, Civil Division, United
    States Department of Justice, Washington, DC, argued for
    respondent-appellee. Also represented by ROBERT PAUL
    COLEMAN, III, JOSEPH H. HUNT, C. SALVATORE D'ALESSIO,
    CATHARINE E. REEVES.
    ______________________
    2                                          BOATMON v. HHS
    Before PROST, Chief Judge, NEWMAN and WALLACH,
    Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the court filed by Chief Judge PROST.
    Concurring opinion filed by Circuit Judge WALLACH.
    Dissenting opinion filed by Circuit Judge NEWMAN.
    PROST, Chief Judge.
    This case, brought under the National Childhood Vac-
    cine Injury Act of 1986, 42 U.S.C. §§ 300aa-1 to -34, as
    amended (the “Vaccine Act”), presents the question of
    whether Petitioners Chase Boatmon and Maurina Cupid
    have proven by a preponderance of the evidence that the
    vaccinations their son, J.B., received caused or substan-
    tially contributed to his death from sudden infant death
    syndrome (“SIDS”). The Special Master found that Peti-
    tioners had met their burden and were entitled to compen-
    sation. Boatmon v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 13-611V, 
    2017 WL 3432329
    (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. July
    10, 2017) (“Special Master Decision”). The United States
    Court of Federal Claims reversed the Special Master’s find-
    ing. Boatmon v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 138 Fed.
    Cl. 566 (2018). While we disagree with most of the Court
    of Federal Claims’ rationale, for the reasons explained be-
    low, we affirm its judgment.
    I
    A
    J.B. was born four weeks prematurely on April 7, 2011.
    Special Master Decision, at *4. Despite being born prema-
    turely, J.B. was progressing with normal growth and de-
    velopment.     At his four-month well baby visit on
    September 2, 2011, J.B. was healthy, with normal chest
    and lungs and no fever, nasal congestion, or cough. At that
    appointment, J.B. received vaccinations for diphtheria-tet-
    anus-acellular pertussis (DTaP), inactivated polio (IPV),
    BOATMON v. HHS                                             3
    pneumococcal conjugate (PCV), rotavirus, and Hepatitis B
    (Hep B). 
    Id. Later that
    evening, J.B. reportedly had a fever and did
    not sleep well. See 
    id. at *5.
    At 4:00 AM on September 3,
    2011, J.B.’s parents gave him Advil for his fever, and he
    went back to sleep. By approximately 8:00 AM, J.B. was
    again running a fever and was given another dose of Advil.
    In the early afternoon, J.B.’s father put him down for a
    nap on his back in his crib. J.B.’s mother checked on him
    and replaced his pacifier. She returned to check on him a
    second time and found him unresponsive on his right side.
    At 2:39 PM, J.B.’s mother called 911 and attempted CPR.
    Responders arrived at the house within minutes and trans-
    ported J.B. to the hospital. Efforts to resuscitate J.B. were
    unsuccessful and he was pronounced dead at 4:01 PM. See
    
    id. at *6.
        A death investigation and scene reenactment indicated
    that J.B. was placed to sleep on his back and was found on
    his right side. Photographs of the scene showed that his
    crib contained soft blankets and a flat soft pillow but no
    clutter or toys.
    The medical examiner performed an autopsy and con-
    cluded that the cause of death was SIDS. 1 
    Id. B The
    Vaccine Act, enacted in 1986, created the National
    Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, through which
    claimants can petition to receive compensation for vaccine-
    related injuries or death. See 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-10(a).
    1   The dissent’s assertions that “no cause of death
    was established” and that “SIDS is not a cause of death”
    are incorrect. Dissent Op. 9, 7. The autopsy report listed
    “the cause of death” as “SIDS.” J.A. 519.
    4                                            BOATMON v. HHS
    There are two ways a petitioner can qualify for com-
    pensation under the program. First, if the petitioner can
    establish an injury listed on the Vaccine Act Injury Table
    that occurred after the administration of a designated vac-
    cine within a designated period of time (“Table cases”),
    then causation is presumed. See 
    id. §§ 300aa-11(c),
    300aa-
    14(a). Second, if the petitioner claims an injury not listed
    in the Vaccine Act Injury Table (“off-Table cases”), the pe-
    titioner must prove, by a preponderance of the evidence,
    that the vaccine was the cause-in-fact of the claimed injury.
    
    Id. §§ 300aa–11(c)(1)(C)(ii)(I),
    300aa-13(a)(1). “[A] proxi-
    mate temporal association alone does not suffice to show a
    causal link between the vaccination and the injury.” Grant
    v. Sec’y of Dep’t of Health & Human Servs., 
    956 F.2d 1144
    ,
    1148 (Fed. Cir. 1992); see also LaLonde v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    746 F.3d 1334
    , 1341 (Fed. Cir. 2014) (“As
    we have stated before, a temporal correlation alone is not
    enough to demonstrate causation.”). The dissent’s sugges-
    tion that temporal proximity of the vaccination to the in-
    jury creates a prima facie case of connection or causation is
    contrary to our precedent. Dissent Op. 7–10.
    Rather, to prove causation in fact in an off-Table case,
    the petitioner must
    show by preponderant evidence that the vaccina-
    tion brought about [the] injury by providing: (1) a
    medical theory causally connecting the vaccination
    and the injury; (2) a logical sequence of cause and
    effect showing that the vaccination was the reason
    for the injury; and (3) a showing of a proximate
    temporal relationship between vaccination and in-
    jury.
    Moberly v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    592 F.3d 1315
    ,
    1321–22 (Fed. Cir. 2010) (quoting Althen v. Sec’y of Health
    & Human Servs., 
    418 F.3d 1274
    , 1278 (Fed. Cir. 2005)).
    These requirements are known as the three Althen prongs.
    If a petitioner proves all three Althen prongs by a
    BOATMON v. HHS                                             5
    preponderance of the evidence, he or she is entitled to re-
    cover unless the government shows “by a preponderance of
    evidence[] that the injury was in fact caused by factors un-
    related to the vaccine.” 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1278
    (quoting
    Knudsen v. Sec’y of the Dep’t of Health & Human Servs., 
    35 F.3d 543
    , 547 (Fed. Cir. 1994)).
    C
    J.B.’s parents filed a petition for compensation under
    the Vaccine Act, alleging that the vaccinations their son re-
    ceived contributed to his death from SIDS. Because this
    was an off-Table case, the Petitioners were required to
    prove causation in fact by establishing each of the three Al-
    then prongs by a preponderance of the evidence.
    The case was assigned to a Special Master, who held
    an evidentiary hearing. The Special Master considered
    medical and scientific literature as well as expert testi-
    mony from Dr. Douglas Miller for the Petitioners and Dr.
    Christine McCusker and Dr. Brent Harris for the govern-
    ment.
    The parties do not dispute that J.B.’s cause of death
    was SIDS. See Special Master Decision, at *6. “SIDS is
    defined as ‘the sudden death of an infant under one year of
    age which remains unexplained after a thorough case in-
    vestigation, including performance of a complete autopsy,
    death scene investigation, and review of the clinical his-
    tory.’” 
    Id. at *7
    (quoting James J. Filiano & Hannah C.
    Kinney, Arcuate Nucleus Hypoplasia in the Sudden Infant
    Death Syndrome, 51 J. Neuropathology & Experimental
    Neurology 394 (1992)). Studies indicate that SIDS occurs
    during sleep or transitions between sleep and waking. 
    Id. Dr. Hannah
    C. Kinney, a neuropathologist at Harvard, is
    an undisputed leader in SIDS research and understanding.
    In 1994, Dr. Kinney and her colleagues “synthesized many
    neuropathological studies into their proposed ‘Triple Risk
    Model.’”     
    Id. This model
    posits that SIDS is
    6                                            BOATMON v. HHS
    “multifactorial,” occurring “when: (1) an infant in a critical
    development period; (2) possessing an underlying vulnera-
    bility; (3) encounters an exogenous stressor.” 
    Id. at *7
    –8,
    *33. The following Venn diagram has been used to illus-
    trate the Triple Risk Model:
    
    Id. at *7
    .
    The first factor, the critical development period, was
    initially defined as the first year of life, but has more re-
    cently been understood to be the first six months of life. 
    Id. at *8.
    The second factor, an underlying intrinsic vulnera-
    bility in the infant, includes prematurity, “‘male gender,
    African-American race, poverty, adverse prenatal factors
    such as maternal smoking or alcohol use during pregnancy,
    . . . genetic polymorphisms,’” and “brainstem abnormality
    in the neuroregulation of cardiorespiratory control.” 
    Id. (quoting Hannah
    C. Kinney et al., The Brainstem and Ser-
    otonin in the Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, 4 Annu. Rev.
    Pathol. Mech. Dis. 517, 519, 521 (2009) (J.A. 553–88) (“Kin-
    ney 2009”)). The third factor, exogenous stressors, has
    been identified in the literature to include “prone sleep po-
    sition, face-down position, covered face in the supine posi-
    tion, soft bedding, bed sharing, over-bundling, elevated
    room temperature, and minor infection at the time of
    death.” 
    Id. at *10
    (citing Kinney 2009, at 519 (J.A. 555)).
    BOATMON v. HHS                                             7
    Dr. Miller, the Petitioners’ expert, theorized that re-
    ceiving a vaccine can be an exogenous stressor for SIDS be-
    cause its prompts the upregulation of cytokines. 
    Id. at *21
    (“Dr. Miller stated that vaccinations can be an extrinsic
    risk factor in SIDS, as they prompt the upregulation of cy-
    tokines that, among other things, produce fever.”). Accord-
    ing to Dr. Miller, the upregulation of cytokines following
    vaccinations can be similar to the upregulation of cytokines
    associated with a mild infection, a known extrinsic risk fac-
    tor for SIDS. 
    Id. at *20–21.
    Dr. Miller theorized that the
    cytokines can inhibit the activity of 5–hydroxytryptamine
    (“5–HT” or serotonin) neurons in the medulla causing pro-
    longed apneas and interference with autoresuscitation. 
    Id. Approximately 50–70%
    of infants who die of SIDS appear
    to have abnormalities in the medullary 5–HT system. 
    Id. at *8.
    According to Dr. Miller’s theory, “[w]hen the vac-
    cines are administered in the presence of the defects in the
    medulla, during the critical developmental period, they are
    likely to have a similar effect as mild infection that may
    cause a failure of the medullary response system and ulti-
    mately a death.” 
    Id. at *21
    . But by Dr. Miller’s own ad-
    mission, no other medical professionals or researchers have
    adopted his theory. See J.A. 161–62; see also Special Mas-
    ter Decision, at *21.
    Dr. McCusker disagreed with Dr. Miller’s theory. Spe-
    cifically, she disagreed that upper respiratory infections—
    and by Dr. Miller’s extension, vaccinations—act as neuro-
    chemical exogenous stressors. Special Master Decision, at
    *23. Instead, Dr. McCusker testified that upper respira-
    tory infections, like the other identified exogenous stress-
    ors, are mechanical, meaning that they interfere with an
    infant’s ability to exhale carbon dioxide and inhale fresh
    oxygen. 
    Id. at *23,
    *25.
    The Special Master found that the Petitioners had es-
    tablished all three Althen prongs by a preponderance of the
    evidence. On Althen prong one, the Special Master adopted
    Dr. Miller’s extension of the Triple Risk Model, concluding
    8                                               BOATMON v. HHS
    that “vaccines can . . . play a critical role . . . by stimulating
    the production of inflammatory cytokines.” 
    Id. at *39.
    We
    note for clarity that the Special Master also stated that “I
    have not concluded that vaccines present a substantial risk
    of SIDS. In fact, the evidence is to the contrary.” 
    Id. at *42.
        On the second Althen prong, the Special Master found
    that “the cytokines triggered by the vaccines” in combina-
    tion with “other intrinsic and/or extrinsic risk factors in the
    presence of a defective or underdeveloped brainstem seems
    likely to have produced the perfect storm that resulted in
    J.B.’s death.” 
    Id. at *41
    (emphasis added). The Special
    Master’s analysis of the second Althen prong therefore de-
    pends on J.B. having a defective or underdeveloped brain-
    stem. But notably, the autopsy did not examine or section
    J.B.’s arcuate nucleus or other medullary areas to deter-
    mine whether J.B. had any such brainstem abnormality.
    
    Id. at *7
    , *30–31. The Special Master found that the Peti-
    tioners had proven by a preponderance of the evidence that
    J.B. had a brainstem abnormality based, in part, on statis-
    tical evidence that a brainstem defect is found in 50–70%
    of SIDS cases and Dr. Miller’s testimony that, based on this
    statistical evidence, J.B. likely had the defect. See 
    id. at *32.
        The Special Master also found that Petitioners had es-
    tablished the temporal requirement of the third Althen
    prong. See 
    id. at *42.
    The Special Master therefore found
    in favor of the Petitioners. 
    Id. at *42–43.
                                    D
    The government sought review of the Special Master’s
    decision in the Court of Federal Claims. The Court of Fed-
    eral Claims reversed the Special Master, finding “as a mat-
    ter of law that the Special Master erred in ruling for
    Petitioners, and in finding that Petitioners had met their
    burden of proof as established by applicable statutes and
    case law.” 
    Boatmon, 138 Fed. Cl. at 567
    ; see also 
    id. at 571
    BOATMON v. HHS                                              9
    (faulting the Special Master’s “improper application of the
    standard of proof required in vaccine cases”).
    The Court of Federal Claims reviewed four decisions by
    three other Special Masters that considered Dr. Miller’s
    theory of vaccination causation in other SIDS cases and
    “uniformly found that the evidence presented by Dr. Miller
    to prove his theory of vaccine causation was not persua-
    sive.” 
    Id. at 571.
    2 Despite acknowledging that “[a] Special
    Master is not bound to follow the opinions of other Special
    Masters,” the Court of Federal Claims criticized the Special
    Master for “ma[king] no acknowledgement of the other
    cases reaching opposite conclusions and ma[king] no at-
    tempt to distinguish the instant case from any of the oth-
    ers.” 
    Id. 2 See
    Jewell v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 11-138V, 
    2016 WL 5404165
    , at *13 (Fed. Cl. Spec.
    Mstr. Aug. 29, 2016) (“[T]here is insufficient evidence in
    the record to support Petitioner’s argument that vaccines
    should be included among Dr. Kinney’s ‘exogenous stress-
    ors’ as a potential causal factor in the pathogenesis of
    SIDS.”); Copenhaver v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 13-1002V, 
    2016 WL 3456436
    , at *18 (Fed. Cl. Spec.
    Mstr. May 31, 2016) (“[T]he Copenhavers have not pre-
    sented a persuasive basis for finding that vaccinations can
    cause SIDS.”); Lord v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No.
    12-255V, 
    2016 WL 806818
    , at *14 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb.
    9, 2016) (“Petitioners have failed to show that their inter-
    pretation of the Triple Risk Model, as it relates to vaccines,
    is a sound and reliable medical theory.”); Cozart v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., No. 00-590V, 
    2015 WL 6746616
    ,
    at *13 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Oct. 15, 2015) (“[T]hey failed to
    show that their interpretation of the Triple Risk Model, as
    it relates to vaccines, is a sound and reliable medical the-
    ory.”).
    10                                           BOATMON v. HHS
    The Court of Federal Claims determined that the Spe-
    cial Master erred by accepting Dr. Miller’s theory because
    it was not “supported by a ‘sound and reliable’ medical or
    scientific explanation” because it has “not been accepted by
    any other experts in the field of SIDS research.” 
    Id. at 571–
    72 (quoting 
    Knudsen, 35 F.3d at 548
    ). In doing so, the
    Court of Federal Claims invoked Daubert and criticized Dr.
    Miller’s theory for not having “been subjected to peer re-
    view and publication.” 
    Id. at 572
    (citing Daubert v. Merrell
    Dow Pharm., Inc., 
    509 U.S. 579
    , 593 (1993)). According to
    the Court of Federal Claims, by accepting Dr. Miller’s un-
    supported theory, the Special Master “applied a standard
    so low as to constitute clear error.” 
    Id. The Court
    of Federal Claims reversed the Special Mas-
    ter, concluding that “having found that Petitioners failed
    to satisfy Althen Prong One, the Court also finds that they
    have not presented a persuasive basis for finding that the
    vaccinations caused J.B.’s death, as required under Althen
    Prong Two.” 
    Id. The Petitioners
    appealed the Court of Federal Claims’
    decision.    We have jurisdiction pursuant to 42
    U.S.C. § 300aa-12(f).
    II
    A
    In Vaccine Act cases, we review the Court of Federal
    Claims’ decision de novo. 
    LaLonde, 746 F.3d at 1338
    . In
    so doing, we apply the same standard that the Court of Fed-
    eral Claims applies in reviewing the special master’s deci-
    sion. 
    Id. We review
    factual findings under the arbitrary
    and capricious standard, and we review legal rulings to de-
    termine whether they are not in accordance with law. 
    Id. at 1339.
    “In effect, this court performs the same task as
    the Court of Federal Claims and determines anew whether
    the special master’s findings were arbitrary or capricious.”
    Lampe v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    219 F.3d 1357
    ,
    BOATMON v. HHS                                           11
    1360 (Fed. Cir. 2000). And “[b]ecause we review the trial
    court’s legal determination that the special master acted in
    a manner not in accordance with law de novo, we effectively
    review the special master’s decision under the same stand-
    ard.” 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1277
    –78.
    B
    We first address the flaws in the Court of Federal
    Claims’ analysis. We then turn to the reasons we affirm its
    ultimate conclusion and judgment.
    1
    Much of the Court of Federal Claims’ analysis focused
    on the fact that the Special Master’s decision in this case
    was contrary to other Special Masters’ decisions in other
    cases addressing the issue of vaccination causation in SIDS
    deaths. The Court of Federal Claims faulted the Special
    Master for “ma[king] no acknowledgement of the other
    cases reaching opposite conclusions and ma[king] no at-
    tempt to distinguish the instant case from any of the oth-
    ers.” 
    Boatmon, 138 Fed. Cl. at 571
    . It concluded that the
    Special Master’s “departure from the conclusions of other
    Special Masters can only be explained by improper appli-
    cation of the standard of proof required in vaccine cases.”
    
    Id. To the
    extent the Court of Federal Claims required that
    special masters cite and distinguish the decisions of other
    special masters, it was incorrect. As the Court of Federal
    Claims itself acknowledged, “[a] Special Master is not
    bound to follow the opinions of other Special Masters.” Id.;
    see also Hanlon v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 40 Fed.
    Cl. 625, 630 (1998) (“Special masters are neither bound by
    their own decisions nor by cases from the Court of Federal
    Claims, except, of course, in the same case on remand.”),
    aff’d, 
    191 F.3d 1344
    (Fed. Cir. 1999). The government also
    acknowledges this on appeal. Appellee’s Br. 18 n.1 (“The
    decisions of other special masters . . . are not binding
    12                                              BOATMON v. HHS
    precedent.”); 
    id. at 22
    (“[S]pecial masters’ decisions are
    non-binding.”). By extension, special masters are not re-
    quired to distinguish non-binding decisions of other special
    masters. That is, in part, because “[c]ausation in fact un-
    der the Vaccine Act is . . . based on the circumstances of the
    particular case.” 
    Knudsen, 35 F.3d at 548
    .
    The Petitioners also argue that the Court of Federal
    Claims improperly invoked Daubert in rejecting Dr. Mil-
    ler’s theory of causation. Appellants’ Br. 25; Reply Br. 8–
    9. To the extent the Court of Federal Claims’ opinion sug-
    gests that that Moberly’s requirement for a “reputable
    medical or scientific explanation” requires that the special
    master apply Daubert and that Daubert requires “peer re-
    view and publication,” 
    Boatmon, 138 Fed. Cl. at 572
    , that
    was incorrect. Special masters may, but are not required
    to, analyze expert testimony according to Daubert. See Ce-
    dillo v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    617 F.3d 1328
    ,
    1338–39 (Fed. Cir. 2010) (“We have previously held that
    Special Masters may look to the Daubert standards in eval-
    uating expert testimony.”); Terran v. Sec’y of Health & Hu-
    man Servs., 
    195 F.3d 1302
    , 1316 (Fed. Cir. 1999) (“Thus,
    the Special Master did not err in analyzing the proffered
    testimony according to Daubert.”).
    The Petitioners also contend that the Court of Federal
    Claims erred in “wield[ing] one Daubert factor”—whether
    the theory at issue has been subjected to peer review and
    publication—“as dispositive of the reliability of [the] evi-
    dence.” Appellants’ Br. 26. The Daubert factors are “meant
    to be helpful, not definitive,” and all factors “do not . . . nec-
    essarily apply even in every instance in which the reliabil-
    ity of scientific testimony is challenged.” Kumho Tire Co.
    v. Carmichael, 
    526 U.S. 137
    , 151 (1999); see also 
    Daubert, 509 U.S. at 594
    –95 (“The inquiry envisioned . . . is, we em-
    phasize, a flexible one.”). While special masters may use
    the Daubert framework to evaluate the reliability of expert
    testimony, we reject any suggestion from the Court of
    BOATMON v. HHS                                                13
    Federal Claims that such testimony must meet each Daub-
    ert factor to be reliable. See 
    Terran, 195 F.3d at 1316
    .
    In sum, we reject any implication from the Court of
    Federal Claims’ decision that special masters must cite and
    distinguish the decisions of other special masters, that they
    must apply Daubert in assessing expert testimony, or that
    each Daubert factor must be satisfied.
    2
    The Court of Federal Claims was correct, however, in
    determining that the Special Master erred by lowering the
    standard of proof for causation. Under the proper stand-
    ard, Petitioners failed to meet their burden to prove by a
    preponderance of evidence that vaccinations can and did
    cause or contribute to J.B.’s death from SIDS.
    a
    In off-Table cases like this one, it is the petitioners’ bur-
    den to prove actual causation by a preponderance of the ev-
    idence. 
    Moberly, 592 F.3d at 1322
    . The Vaccine Act
    “relaxes proof of causation for injuries satisfying the Ta-
    ble[,] . . . but does not relax proof of causation in fact for
    non-Table Injuries.” 
    Id. (quoting Grant
    , 956 F.2d at 1148).
    A petitioner must provide a “reputable medical or scientific
    explanation” for its theory. 
    Id. While it
    does not require
    medical or scientific certainty, it must still be “sound and
    reliable.” 
    Knudsen, 35 F.3d at 548
    –49.
    The Special Master deviated from the correct “reputa-
    ble,” “sound and reliable” standard and articulated a lower
    “reasonable” standard. See Special Master Decision, at *30
    (“[P]etitioners must show by a preponderance of the evi-
    dence a reasonable theory as to how the vaccine could cause
    the harm at issue.” (emphasis added)); 
    id. at *39
    (“Accord-
    ingly, [P]etitioners have satisfied the requirement of Al-
    then Prong One by presenting a reasonable explanation of
    how the vaccine could cause or substantially contribute to
    the child’s death.” (emphasis added)); 
    id. at *40
    (“Dr.
    14                                            BOATMON v. HHS
    Miller has presented a reasonable and persuasive theory.”
    (emphasis added)); J.A. 674 (Dr. Miller explaining a “plau-
    sible mechanism whereby such infants, presumptively in-
    cluding [J.B.], can die from the indirect effects of the
    vaccine” (emphasis added)). These articulations of the
    standard are incorrect as a matter of law.
    We have consistently rejected theories that the vaccine
    only “likely caused” the injury and reiterated that a “plau-
    sible” or “possible” causal theory does not satisfy the stand-
    ard. 
    Moberly, 592 F.3d at 1322
    (rejecting a “more relaxed
    standard” of whether the condition was “likely caused” by
    the vaccine and reiterating that “proof of a ‘plausible’ or
    ‘possible’ causal link between the vaccine and the in-
    jury . . . is not the statutory standard”); see also 
    LaLonde, 746 F.3d at 1339
    (“However, in the past we have made clear
    that simply identifying a ‘plausible’ theory of causation is
    insufficient for a petitioner to meet her burden of proof.”
    (quoting 
    Moberly, 592 F.3d at 1322
    )).
    By the Special Master’s and Dr. Miller’s own assess-
    ment, Dr. Miller’s theory is only “plausible.” See, e.g., Spe-
    cial Master Decision, at *21 (“[Dr. Miller] testified that,
    based on the literature, there is a scientifically-plausible
    mechanism for vaccinations acting as the extrinsic risk fac-
    tor in SIDS in much the same way as a mild infection.”
    (emphasis added)); 
    id. (“[Dr. Miller]
    concluded that the
    mechanism [underlying his theory] is plausible.” (empha-
    sis added)); J.A. 670 (Dr. Miller stating in his report that
    “it is medically plausible that this case of SIDS was related
    to these vaccinations” (emphasis added)). The Special Mas-
    ter erred in allowing a theory that was at best “plausible”
    to satisfy the Petitioners’ burden of proof.
    b
    The Special Master also erred in determining that Pe-
    titioners’ theory that vaccinations can be an exogenous risk
    factor under the Triple Risk Model is a sound and reliable
    medical theory as required by Althen prong one.
    BOATMON v. HHS                                            15
    First, Petitioners have not shown that their theory that
    vaccinations can be an exogenous stressor under the Triple
    Risk Model of SIDS is a sound and reliable medical theory.
    It would be an extension of the Triple Risk Model to include
    vaccination-induced cytokine activity in the list of exoge-
    nous stressors as Dr. Miller proposes. Dr. Miller himself
    concedes that, outside of Vaccine Act litigation, vaccina-
    tions have not been identified as an exogenous stressor for
    SIDS. See Special Master Decision, at *21 (Special Master
    noting that Dr. Miller “acknowledged that there is not wide
    recognition, or a generally accepted theory, that vaccina-
    tions are an exogenous stressor [for SIDS]”). Dr. Miller was
    unable to identify any other medical professional who iden-
    tified vaccinations as exogenous stressors under the Triple
    Risk Model. See J.A. 161–62 (Dr. Miller testifying that,
    other than experts in Vaccine Act cases, no one in the med-
    ical community has asserted that vaccines are more likely
    than not an external risk factor for SIDS). “Although a
    Vaccine Act claimant is not required to present proof of
    causation to the level of scientific certainty, the special
    master is entitled to require some indicia of reliability to
    support the assertion of the expert witness.” 
    Moberly, 592 F.3d at 1324
    . Daubert is not required, see 
    Terran, 195 F.3d at 1316
    , but reliability and reputability are, 
    Moberly, 592 F.3d at 1324
    ; 
    Knudsen, 35 F.3d at 549
    . Here there is noth-
    ing more than the assertion of Dr. Miller. The Special Mas-
    ter erred in adopting an unsound and unreliable theory
    that constitutes a significant extension of the Triple Risk
    Model in the absence of any indicia of reliability.
    Second, the Petitioners failed to show by a preponder-
    ance of the evidence that vaccinations cause cytokines to
    provoke an abnormal brainstem serotonin response or oth-
    erwise cause or contribute to a SIDS death. When asked
    at oral argument to identify what material in the record
    shows how the function of cytokines, not just the presence
    or expression of cytokines, affects the brain and supports
    Dr. Miller’s theory, the Petitioners replied that there are
    16                                           BOATMON v. HHS
    animal studies and in vitro studies that show that cyto-
    kines cross the blood brain barrier and interfere with the
    central nervous system. See Oral Arg. at 37:12–39:28,
    No. 2018-2333,      http://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/oral-argu-
    ment-recordings. The Petitioners stated that “it is almost
    ubiquitous in the literature that cytokines from a periph-
    eral insult, including infection, vaccination, can and do
    cross the blood brain barrier.” 
    Id. at 37:29–37:39
    (empha-
    sis added). The Petitioners specifically identified Frøen3
    (J.A. 736–40), Brambilla 4 (J.A. 600–07), and Stoltenberg 5
    (not included in the Joint Appendix but referred to in the
    record) for support. None support Dr. Miller’s proposed
    theory.
    In the Frøen study, a first group of piglets was given
    IL–1β (a pro-inflammatory cytokine that is released during
    infection), a second group was given nicotine, a third group
    was given nicotine and the cytokine, and a fourth control
    group was given a placebo. J.A. 736. Apnea, defined as a
    deprivation of airflow for greater than five seconds, was in-
    duced by artificial means on each group of piglets. J.A. 737.
    The study found that nicotine worsened autoresuscitation
    after apnea and that it was further aggravated when com-
    bined with cytokines. J.A. 737–38. The study did not show
    3   J. Frederik Frøen et al., Adverse Effects of Nicotine
    and Interleukin–1β on Autoresuscitation After Apnea in
    Piglets: Implications for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome,
    105 Pediatrics (April 2000).
    4    D. Brambilla et al., Interleukin–1 Inhibits Firing of
    Serotonergic Neurons in the Dorsal Raphe Nucleus and En-
    hances GABAergic Inhibitory Post-Synaptic Potentials, 26
    Eur. J. Neuroscience 1862 (2007).
    5    Lauritz Stoltenberg et al., Changes in Apnea and
    Autoresuscitation in Piglets After Intravenous and In-
    trathecal Interleukin–1β Injection, 22 J. Perinatal Med. 421
    (1994).
    BOATMON v. HHS                                            17
    that cytokines alone caused any spontaneous apneas before
    the first induced apnea. J.A. 738.
    The Stoltenberg study is not included in the Joint Ap-
    pendix but was considered by the Special Master. Stolten-
    berg, also conducted on piglets, was similar to Frøen and
    showed that exposure to cytokines may prolong artificially
    induced apnea. See Special Master Decision, at *16. Dr.
    McCusker opined that the Frøen and Stoltenberg studies,
    performed on very young piglets, have limited relevance to
    what happens in living human infant brains. See 
    id. at *26.
    Fundamentally, neither the Frøen nor the Stoltenberg
    study examined the effects of vaccinations and neither
    show that vaccinations can produce the kind of cytokine ac-
    tivity in the brain that Dr. Miller theorizes.
    Brambilla, a study conducted on rat brains in vitro,
    looked at the effect of exposure to IL–1β on the firing of
    serotonin neurons and GABAergic neurons in the dorsal
    raphe nucleus in the medulla. J.A. 600–01. The research-
    ers euthanized the rats, removed and sectioned the brains,
    bathed them with IL–1β, stimulated them, then observed
    the firing of the neurons. J.A. 601. The study found that
    IL–1β suppressed the firing of the serotonin neurons and
    increased the firing of the GABA neurons. J.A. 604. Dr.
    McCusker opined that the Brambilla study, performed on
    rat brains in petri dishes, does not reflect what happens in
    a living vulnerable infant in a crisis situation. See Special
    Master Decision, at *26.
    In our view, these studies do not provide support for
    Dr. Miller’s proposed theory because they do not show that
    that cytokine activity is capable of impacting the brain’s 5–
    HT system in the manner Dr. Miller claims or that vaccina-
    tions are capable of producing such cytokine activity in the
    brain.
    For these reasons, the Petitioners have failed to show
    by a preponderance of the evidence that Dr. Miller’s theory
    18                                           BOATMON v. HHS
    that vaccinations can be exogenous stressors for SIDS is a
    sound and reliable medical theory of causation.
    c
    The second prong of Althen requires that the petitioner
    show by a preponderance of the evidence “a logical se-
    quence of cause and effect showing that the vaccination
    was the reason for the injury.” 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1278
    .
    Here, because the Petitioners failed to present a sound and
    reliable theory of how vaccinations can cause SIDS, they
    have also failed to show that vaccinations caused or con-
    tributed to J.B.’s death from SIDS.
    Additionally, on the second Althen prong, the govern-
    ment argues that the Special Master erred by “conclud[ing]
    based on statistical evidence alone that J.B. did in fact have
    a brainstem vulnerability.” Appellee’s Br. 24–28. The Spe-
    cial Master’s determination that the Petitioners satisfied
    the second Althen prong depended on his conclusion that
    J.B. had a brainstem abnormality. See Special Master De-
    cision, at *32. In reaching this conclusion, the Special Mas-
    ter relied, in part, on what he regarded as a concession by
    Dr. McCusker that J.B. must have had a brainstem abnor-
    mality. See 
    id. The testimony
    in question was Dr.
    McCusker’s statement that “the brain problem that -- ac-
    cording to the triple-risk theory, the brain problem must
    exist.” J.A. 272 ll. 21–22. The Special Master took this to
    be an admission by Dr. McCusker that the brain problem
    must have existed in J.B.’s case. Special Master Decision,
    at *22 (“Dr. McCusker agreed that ‘according to the Triple
    Risk theory, the brain problem must exist [in J.B.’s case].’”
    (alteration in original) (quoting J.A. 272)). Notably, the
    “[in J.B.’s case]” was the Special Master’s addition and was
    not part of Dr. McCusker’s testimony. The Special Master
    relied on this “admission” in adopting Dr. Miller’s theory.
    The government strongly contests that Dr. McCusker’s
    testimony was a concession that J.B. had the brainstem ab-
    normality. In fact, the government has contested whether
    BOATMON v. HHS                                                19
    J.B. had a brainstem abnormality throughout this case.
    See 
    Boatmon, 138 Fed. Cl. at 571
    (“Respondent maintains
    that the Special Master impermissibly found, based on sta-
    tistical evidence alone, that J.B. had a defective brainstem
    making him vulnerable to vaccines under the Special Mas-
    ter’s extension of the Triple Risk Theory.”); Appellee’s
    Br. 24–28; Oral Arg. at 26:21–27:29.
    Aside from this contested testimony, the Special Mas-
    ter’s determination that J.B. had a brainstem abnormality
    rested in part on an assumption based on statistics. J.B.’s
    autopsy did not examine or section the area required to de-
    termine whether he had the brainstem abnormality. See
    Special Master Decision, at *7, *30–31. In the absence of
    actual evidence, Dr. Miller relied on statistics that a brain-
    stem defect is found in 50–70% of SIDS cases and that,
    given these statistics, J.B. likely had a defect. 
    Id. at *22,
    *32; see also J.A. 107 ll. 6–12 (Dr. Miller testifying that “we
    make the assumption . . . that based on the statistics . . . it’s
    most likely the physiological abnormality in the 5–HT sys-
    tem, but we don’t have proof of that in individual cases”);
    J.A. 128 ll. 17–23 (Dr. Miller testifying that “it’s statisti-
    cally likely that [J.B.] was one of those [infants with a de-
    fective 5–HT system]. I don’t have proof of that, but we can
    assume that”). Notably, we have previously rejected sta-
    tistical likelihood alone as proof of actual causation. See,
    e.g., 
    Knudsen, 35 F.3d at 550
    (rejecting alternative cause
    theory based on “[t]he bare statistical fact that there are
    more reported cases of viral encephalopathies than there
    are reported cases of DTP encephalopathies”).
    We conclude that the Petitioners have failed to demon-
    strate by a preponderance of the evidence a logical se-
    quence of cause and effect showing that the vaccinations
    J.B. received caused or contributed to his death.
    III
    We have considered the Petitioners’ remaining argu-
    ments and find them unpersuasive. The circumstances of
    20                                             BOATMON v. HHS
    this case are, of course, heartbreaking. However, we can-
    not allow unsupported, unreliable theories of causation to
    provide a basis for recovery in off-Table cases under the
    Vaccine Act. In this case, the Petitioners failed to prove by
    a preponderance of the evidence that the vaccinations J.B.
    received can and did cause or contribute to his death. We
    therefore affirm the judgment of the Court of Federal
    Claims.
    AFFIRMED
    COSTS
    The parties shall bear their own costs.
    United States Court of Appeals
    for the Federal Circuit
    ______________________
    CHASE BOATMON, MAURINA CUPID, PARENTS
    OF J.B., DECEASED,
    Petitioners-Appellants
    v.
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
    SERVICES,
    Respondent-Appellee
    ______________________
    2018-2333
    ______________________
    Appeal from the United States Court of Federal Claims
    in No. 1:13-vv-00611-TCW, Judge Thomas C. Wheeler.
    ______________________
    WALLACH, Circuit Judge, joining and concurring.
    I join with the majority opinion. I write in concurrence
    to respond to Judge Newman’s dissent.
    The Dissent asserts that “the standard of common
    sense and sound reason” compels finding causation when
    vaccination is “soon followed by” injury. Dissent Op. 10.
    The Dissent would obviate the need for a “medical theory”
    based on “proof of a logical sequence of cause and effect,”
    supported by a “reputable medical or scientific explana-
    tion,” Althen v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    418 F.3d 1274
    , 1278 (Fed. Cir. 2005); see 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-13(a)(1)
    (2012) (requiring proof of causation by a “preponderance of
    the evidence” for injuries not in the Vaccine Injury Table).
    2                                            BOATMON v. HHS
    The Dissent believes that, given the “inadequacy of present
    scientific knowledge,” “common sense must suffice.” Dis-
    sent Op. 10.
    Respectfully, an unverified assertion of fact is not com-
    mon sense; it is a non-cognizable argument. A statement
    of law without basis in statute or precedent is not sound
    reason. Refusal to abide by governing law because it of-
    fends a judge’s sensibilities is not stare decisis. I take the
    unusual step of concurring to respond to a dissent because
    to leave the Dissent without a response would, in my opin-
    ion, be an abrogation of my judicial duty.
    United States Court of Appeals
    for the Federal Circuit
    ______________________
    CHASE BOATMON, MAURINA CUPID, PARENTS
    OF J.B., DECEASED,
    Petitioners-Appellants
    v.
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
    SERVICES,
    Respondent-Appellee
    ______________________
    2018-2333
    ______________________
    Appeal from the United States Court of Federal Claims
    in No. 1:13-vv-00611-TCW, Judge Thomas C. Wheeler.
    ______________________
    Newman, Circuit Judge, dissenting.
    I respectfully dissent, for the court’s ruling conflicts
    with the text and the purpose of the National Childhood
    Vaccine Injury Act. During a Senate hearing leading to the
    National Childhood Vaccine-Injury Compensation Act, the
    Assistant Secretary of the Department of Health and Hu-
    man Services, testified concerning vaccines:
    Immunization of children is one of the most spec-
    tacularly successful preventive health measures
    available. Through the appropriate use of vaccine,
    smallpox has been eradicated from the earth. In
    this country we have also essentially eliminated
    diphtheria, tetanus, and poliomyelitis as diseases
    2                                           BOATMON v. HHS
    of children. We are on the verge of achieving elim-
    ination of measles as a native disease and are be-
    ginning to intensify our efforts in order to hasten
    the ultimate elimination of rubella.
    National Childhood Vaccine-Injury Compensation Act:
    Hearing on S.2117 Before the S. Comm. on Labor & Human
    Res., 98th Cong. 6 (1984) (statement of Edward M. Brandt,
    Jr., M.D., Assistant Sec’y of Health, Dep’t of Health & Hu-
    man Servs.).
    However, Senator Hatch cautioned, there is “a small
    but significant public health problem—the incidence of
    harmful and occasionally even fatal reactions to vaccines
    administered to children.” 
    Id. at 2
    (statement of Sen. Orrin
    Hatch, S. Comm. on Labor & Human Res.). Senator Ken-
    nedy, a primary sponsor of this legislation, elaborated on
    the incidence of vaccine injury:
    Even when vaccines are properly manufactured,
    distributed and administered, there will be a case
    of paralytic polio which will result from the admin-
    istration of each 5 million doses of polio vaccine;
    there will be a serious neurological injury which
    will result from every 300,000 doses of DTP vac-
    cine, and in rare cases there are severe conse-
    quences from the administration of MMR vaccines.
    These few but important injuries create doubts and
    fears in our National Childhood Vaccination Pro-
    grams.
    
    Id. at 3–4
    (statement of Sen. Edward Kennedy, S. Comm.
    on Labor & Human Res.). Senator Kennedy explained the
    need for legislative action:
    We must be able to assure parents that when their
    children are the victims of an appropriate and ra-
    tional national policy, a compassionate Govern-
    ment will assist them in their hour of need.
    BOATMON v. HHS                                             3
    
    Id. at 4.
    Thus, the Vaccine Act provides a system of com-
    pensation for children who are injured by vaccine. A legis-
    lative Report for an oversight hearing states the guiding
    principles, including:
    In proposing this legislation, the Committee reiter-
    ates its intent that the vaccine injury compensation
    system be informal, flexible, and expeditious, and
    that all participants proceed accordingly. The re-
    invention of the adversarial process will serve nei-
    ther to compensate injured children nor maintain
    the stability of the immunization programs of the
    United States.
    H.R. Rep. No. 101-247, at 510 (1989), as reprinted in 1989
    U.S.C.C.A.N. 1906, 2236.
    As discussed in Knudsen v. Sec’y of Dep’t Health & Hu-
    man Servs., 
    35 F.3d 543
    (Fed. Cir. 1994), there has been
    inadequate medical understanding of the causes of vaccine
    injury. The Knudsen court explained that “to require iden-
    tification and proof of specific biological mechanisms would
    be inconsistent with the purpose and nature of the vaccine
    compensation program. The Vaccine Act does not contem-
    plate full blown tort litigation.” 
    Id. at 549.
    The court held
    that compensation is available when vaccine injury is “‘log-
    ical’ and legally probable, not medically or scientifically
    certain.” 
    Id. at 548–49.
    Again in Althen v. Sec’y of Health
    & Human Servs., 
    418 F.3d 1274
    (Fed. Cir. 2005), the court
    recognized the dearth of scientific understanding of vaccine
    injury, and explained that Congress encouraged “the use of
    circumstantial evidence” and envisioned that “close calls
    regarding causation [would be] resolved in favor of injured
    claimants.” 
    Id. at 1280.
        This precedent conforms to a goal of the Vaccine Act—
    to foster public confidence and participation in childhood
    4                                            BOATMON v. HHS
    immunizations—by compensating the rare vaccine injury. 1
    Today’s decision, denying compensation for a highly prob-
    able vaccine injury, does not conform to the statutory pur-
    pose.
    J.B.’s Immunizations
    At J.B.’s four-month well-baby examination, his pedia-
    trician recorded that he was “healthy appearing and coop-
    erative . . . well nourished and well developed.” His father
    stated that J.B. was “smiling and cooing like normal” dur-
    ing the examination. Boatmon v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., No. 13-611V (Special Master), 
    2017 WL 3432329
    , at
    *5 (Fed. Cl. July 10, 2017) (“Special Master Op.”). The pe-
    diatrician administered vaccines for diphtheria-tetanus-
    acellular-pertussis (DTaP), inactivated polio virus (IPV),
    haemophilus influenzae (Hib), pneumococcal conjugate
    (PCV) and rotavirus.
    J.B.’s parents testified that later in the day, J.B. began
    acting abnormally, was not moving as usual, seemed quiet
    and withdrawn, and had a fever. The next day he was dis-
    tant and very quiet, would not eat, and had a fever. He
    1    The Health Resources & Services Administration
    reports that for the period from January 1, 2006 through
    December 31, 2017, a total of 3,454,269,356 doses of cov-
    ered vaccines were distributed in the United States.
    Health Res. & Servs. Admin. Data & Statistics, National
    Vaccine Injury Compensation Program Monthly Statistics
    Report, at 3, https://www.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hrsa/
    vaccine-compensation/data/data-statistics-october-2019.pdf.
    The HRSA reports that “[f]or petitions filed in this time pe-
    riod, 6,493 petitions were adjudicated by the Court [of Fed-
    eral Claims], and of those 4,470 were compensated. This
    means for every 1 million doses of vaccine that were dis-
    tributed, approximately 1 individual was compensated.”
    
    Id. at 1.
    BOATMON v. HHS                                            5
    became unresponsive, and his mother called 911
    at 2:39 p.m. The record recites the efforts to revive him.
    At the hospital he was pronounced dead at 4:01 p.m.
    A medical examiner conducted an autopsy. The Au-
    topsy Report states that J.B. had no known medical prob-
    lems and had regular infant care and immunizations. The
    Report cites the “absence of findings and the reported
    sleeping position in a child with no anatomic or microscopic
    significant findings.” Special Master Op. at *6. The medi-
    cal examiner classified J.B.’s death as “Sudden Infant
    Death Syndrome” (SIDS).
    SIDS is defined as “the sudden, unexplained death of a
    baby younger than 1 year of age that doesn’t have a known
    cause even after a complete investigation. This investiga-
    tion includes performing a complete autopsy, examining
    the death scene, and reviewing the clinical history.” Nat’l
    Insts. of Health, What Is SIDS?, https://safeto-
    sleep.nichd.nih.gov/safesleepbasics/SIDS; see also Special
    Master Op. at *7 (quoting James J. Filiano & Hannah C.
    Kinney, Arcuate Nucleus Hypoplasia in the Sudden Infant
    Death Syndrome, 51 J. Neuropathology & Experimental
    Neurology 394 (1992)).
    The government denied Vaccine Act compensation, and
    the J.B.’s parents, petitioners, appealed to the U.S. Court
    of Federal Claims. The Special Master held a trial. The
    experts from both sides referred to inadequacies in the au-
    topsy, and both sides referred to the absence of understand-
    ing of vaccine injury and the causes of sudden infant death.
    The Special Master discussed the evidence and arguments
    at length and depth. For example, the Special Master
    stated that:
    The parties’ experts in neuropathology—Dr.
    Miller for petitioners and Dr. Harris for respond-
    ent—reviewed 21 slides from J.B.’s autopsy, in-
    cluding two of J.B.’s brain. Exhibit 13 at 4–5;
    Exhibit A at 5. The first brain slide is a cross-
    6                                            BOATMON v. HHS
    section of pons at the level of the locus coeruleus
    (the upper pons), and the second slide is of two cin-
    gulate gyri with a portion of the adjacent corpus
    callosum. Exhibit 13 at 5. These brain sections
    demonstrated no abnormalities. 
    Id. However, the
        medical examiner did not make slides from other
    parts of the brain, such as the medulla or hippo-
    campus. 
    Id. Furthermore, he
    did not take any pho-
    tographs of the internal examination. 
    Id. The parties’
    experts agreed that the medical examiner
    did not collect all of the data necessary to defini-
    tively analyze whether J.B. fit the Triple Risk
    Model of SIDS, introduced in the following section.
    Tr. 42–43 (testimony of Dr. Miller); Tr. 334 (testi-
    mony of Dr. Harris). The experts agreed that they
    would section considerably more of the brain in a
    possible SIDS autopsy than the two frontal lobes
    and one area of the pons that were sectioned in this
    case. Dr. Harris indicated that usually a SIDS au-
    topsy should include samples of at least ten areas,
    including the medulla and hippocampus, which can
    help to show hypoxic ischemic changes as well as
    epilepsy related changes. Tr. 334. Both experts
    agreed, however, that in many SIDS cases, brains
    are not examined with the precision that they
    would recommend or that Dr. Kinney’s group at
    Harvard did in their studies (introduced in the fol-
    lowing section). Tr. 346.
    Special Master Op. at *7. The Special Master provided a
    detailed analysis of all the evidence and argument, in light
    of the statute and precedent, and stated:
    I have concluded that the petitioners have demon-
    strated by a preponderance of the evidence that the
    vaccines can and likely did play a critical role in
    this child’s death by stimulating the production of
    inflammatory cytokines that suppressed the res-
    piratory response system and caused the
    BOATMON v. HHS                                             7
    vulnerable infant to be unable to respond in the
    normal way to the accumulation of carbon dioxide
    in his system. Accordingly, petitioners have satis-
    fied the requirement of Althen Prong One by pre-
    senting a reasonable explanation of how the
    vaccine could cause or substantially contribute to
    the child’s death.
    
    Id. at *39.
    The Special Master concluded that:
    The close temporal relationship of the child’s death
    to the receipt of seven vaccines is reasonable and
    consistent with the theory of neuro-modulation in
    the arcuate nucleus by the cytokine response to the
    vaccines.
    
    Id. at *42.
        The panel majority, adopting the government’s argu-
    ment, holds that Vaccine Act compensation does not apply
    because J.B.’s death was not shown to have resulted from
    the immunizations. The majority states that the cause of
    death was not the vaccine, but was SIDS. The majority
    states that “because the Petitioners failed to present a
    sound and reliable theory of how vaccinations can cause
    SIDS, they have also failed to show that vaccinations
    caused or contributed to J.B.’s death from SIDS.” Maj. Op.
    at 18.
    However, SIDS is not a cause of death, SIDS is an ad-
    mission that the cause of death is unknown. The close
    proximity between vaccine administration to a healthy
    baby, and fever and death soon thereafter, presents a suf-
    ficient relationship among these events to produce a rea-
    sonable—likelihood, a prima facie case that the vaccine
    caused or contributed to the injury.
    The prima facie case of vaccine injury
    A “prima facie” case is established with “[a] party’s pro-
    duction of enough evidence to allow the fact-trier to infer
    8                                              BOATMON v. HHS
    the fact at issue and rule in the party’s favor.” Prima Facie
    Case, Black’s Law Dictionary 1441 (11th ed. 2019). The
    prima facie case then shifts the burden of coming forward
    to the opposing party. Furnco Const. Corp. v. Waters, 
    438 U.S. 567
    , 577 (1978). The prima facie case “only stands
    until its weight is met by evidence to the contrary.” 9 John
    H. Wigmore, Evidence § 2487, at 297 (Chadbourn rev.
    1981). Wigmore summarizes that:
    A ‘prima facie’ case so made out need not be over-
    come by a preponderance of evidence, or by evi-
    dence of greater weight; but the evidence needs
    only be balanced, put in equipoise, by some evi-
    dence worthy of credence; and if this be done, the
    burden of the evidence has been met and the duty
    of producing further evidence shifts back to the
    party having the burden of proof, who, if he would
    win, must not only begin by making out his case,
    but he must also end by keeping it good. . . . The
    burden of the evidence, or the duty of going forward
    with evidence, strictly speaking, means no more
    than the meeting of a ‘prima facie’ case or rebutting
    a presumption, by evidence of equal weight rather
    than by a preponderance of the evidence.
    
    Id. Here, a
    prima facie case was established by J.B.’s phys-
    iological response within hours of vaccine administration,
    with death within a day. The petitioners’ expert witness
    opined that an adverse reaction to a vaccine had a critical
    role in J.B.’s death. The government’s expert witness never
    opined that there was no relation between the vaccine and
    J.B.’s events; he simply stated that he did not know the
    cause of J.B.’s death.
    Upon provision of a prima facie case, the duty of coming
    forward with evidence befalls the opponent. Here, not even
    minimal contrary evidence was offered. The government’s
    expert did not opine that the vaccines could not have been
    BOATMON v. HHS                                             9
    a factor; he offered no theory to counter J.B.’s observed fe-
    ver and death. However, the majority holds that since no
    cause of death was established, it is irrelevant that a vac-
    cine more-likely-than-not caused or contributed to the in-
    jury. This reasoning contravenes the legislative purpose to
    provide an informal, flexible, and fair system.
    In Knudsen, this court recognized the inadequate med-
    ical understanding of vaccine injury, and reasoned that
    causation need only be “‘logical’ and legally probable, not
    medically or scientifically 
    certain.” 35 F.3d at 548
    –49. Ad-
    ditionally, Knudsen explained that “to require identifica-
    tion and proof of specific biological mechanisms would be
    inconsistent with the purpose and nature of the vaccine
    compensation program. The Vaccine Act does not contem-
    plate full blown tort litigation.” 
    Id. at 549.
        Both parties’ experts discussed the absence of under-
    standing of infant death that is called SIDS. The parties
    referred to ongoing studies, such as by Dr. H.C. Kinney,
    who is described as a leading researcher on SIDS. The par-
    ties referred to Dr. Kinney’s theory implicating a neuro-
    chemical abnormality on the medullary 5-HT system, as
    was found in some SIDS cases. See Kinney, H.C., Brain-
    stem Mechanisms Underlying the Sudden Infant Death
    Syndrome: Evidence from Human Pathologic Studies, 51
    Dev. Psychobiol. 223 (2009). Petitioner’s expert, Dr. Miller,
    testified that the sheer cost of conducting a receptor auto-
    radiography and the expertise required, makes receptor
    autoradiography unfeasible for most medical examiners
    conducting autopsies. J.A.107.
    The goals of the Vaccine Act are to foster public confi-
    dence and participation in childhood immunizations by
    compensating the rare, but serious vaccine injuries. The
    judicial obligation is to assure administration of the Vac-
    cine Act in accordance with its purpose. “The purpose of
    the Vaccine Act’s preponderance standard is to allow the
    finding of causation in a field bereft of complete and direct
    10                                            BOATMON v. HHS
    proof of how vaccines affect the human body.” 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1280
    .
    Here, both sides’ experts acknowledged the inadequacy
    of present scientific knowledge, even as both criticized the
    medical examiner’s autopsy. Meanwhile, common sense
    must suffice. On the standard of common sense and sound
    reason, vaccination of a well-baby with seven powerful tox-
    ins, soon followed by fever and death, provide a prima facie
    case of a causal or contributing relationship between the
    vaccine and these ensuing events, whereby the duty of com-
    ing forward with evidence and argument befalls the oppo-
    nent. Here, the government’s expert stated only that he
    did not know the cause of J.B.’s death.
    It is hoped that advances in genetic science, neurologi-
    cal science, and other sciences, will enhance the under-
    standing of vaccine injury, so that even these rare injuries
    can be foreseen and avoided. 2 Meanwhile, common sense
    and fair implementation of the legislative purpose are the
    judicial recourse. Representative Burton remarked on the
    government’s adversarial posture in vaccine injury cases:
    If you talk to families who have been tied up in this
    system, it sounds like this program has become
    every bit as adversarial as the tort system it re-
    placed. Cases drag on for 6 or 8 or 10 years. 3
    ***
    2  In Oliver v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    900 F.3d 1357
    (Fed. Cir. 2018), the record discussed the rela-
    tion between a newly discovered genetic mutation and vac-
    cine injury in infants found to have the mutation, reporting
    results suggesting that delay of immunization may avoid
    injury for infants having that mutation.
    3   The Petitioners’ claim was first filed on August 27,
    2013.
    BOATMON v. HHS                                              11
    Close calls are supposed to go to the families. The
    Government is not supposed to fight them tooth
    and nail. Some of these cases don’t even look like
    close calls, and yet the Government fights them for
    years. That has to stop.
    The National Vaccine Injury Program: Is it Working as
    Congress Intended?: Hearings Before the H. Comm. on Gov’t
    Reform, 107th Cong. 3–5 (2001).
    It is the obligation of the courts to assure that the stat-
    utory purpose is implemented. Although vaccine injury is
    sparse, the purpose of the Vaccine Act is to provide com-
    pensation in the event of injury that is reasonably attribut-
    able to vaccine. The record shows, on undisputed facts that
    J.B.’s injury and death more-likely-than-not were reasona-
    bly attributable to vaccine. My colleagues’ ruling ignores
    the evidence, negates the statutory purpose, and contra-
    venes the policy of supporting public health and well-being.
    I respectfully dissent.