County of Butte v. Dept. of Water Resources ( 2023 )


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  • Filed 5/1/23 (unmodified opn. attached)
    CERTIFIED FOR PUBLICATION
    IN THE COURT OF APPEAL OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
    THIRD APPELLATE DISTRICT
    (Yolo)
    ----
    COUNTY OF BUTTE,                                                C071785
    Plaintiff and Appellant,                       (Super. Ct. No.
    CVCV091258)
    v.
    ORDER MODIFYING
    DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES,                               OPINION AND
    DENYING REHEARING
    Defendant and Respondent;
    NO CHANGE IN
    STATE WATER CONTRACTORS, INC., et al.,                       JUDGMENT
    Real Parties in Interest and Respondents.
    COUNTY OF PLUMAS et al.,
    Plaintiffs and Appellants,
    v.
    DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES,
    Defendant and Respondent;
    STATE WATER CONTRACTORS, INC., et al.,
    Real Parties in Interest and Respondents.
    Two cases (Nos. 144282, 144283) were consolidated and transferred from the Butte
    County Superior Court to the Yolo County Superior Court (No. CVCV091258).
    1
    THE COURT:
    It is ordered that the opinion filed herein on April 7, 2023, be modified as follows:
    1. On page 16, the second sentence of the first full paragraph, beginning “And while
    true that DWR did not discuss” is deleted and the following sentence is inserted in its
    place:
    And while true that DWR did not discuss each of these authorities in its EIR, it
    still conveyed much of the same type of information.
    This modification does not change the judgment. Appellants’ petition for rehearing is
    denied.
    FOR THE COURT:
    /s/
    ROBIE, Acting P. J.
    /s/
    HULL, J.
    /s/
    BOULWARE EURIE, J.
    2
    EDITORIAL LISTING
    APPEAL from a judgment of the Superior Court of Yolo County, Daniel P. Maguire,
    Judge. Affirmed.
    Bruce Alpert, Brad J. Stephens, County Counsel; Rossmann and Moore, Antonio
    Rossmann, Roger B. Moore, Barton Lounsbury; Law Office of Roger B. Moore, Roger
    B. Moore; Shute Mihaly & Weinberger and Ellison Folk for Plaintiff and Appellant
    County of Butte.
    R. Craig Settlemire, Gretchen Stuhr, County Counsel; Law Office of Roger B.
    Moore, Roger B. Moore; Law Offices of Michael B. Jackson and Michael B. Jackson for
    Plaintiffs and Appellants County of Plumas and Plumas County Flood Control and Water
    Conservation District.
    E. Robert Wright for Friends of the River and the California Sportfishing
    Protection Alliance as Amici Curiae on behalf of Plaintiffs and Appellants.
    Kamala D. Harris, Xavier Becerra, and Rob Bonta, Attorneys General, Robert W.
    Byrne, Assistant Attorney General, Randy L. Barrow, Tracy L. Winsor, Deborah L.
    Barnes, Russell B. Hildreth and Matthew J. Goldman, Deputy Attorneys General, for
    Defendant and Respondent.
    The Sohagi Law Group, Margaret M. Sohagi, Philip A. Seymour; Duane Morris,
    Thomas M. Berliner, Paul J. Killion, Jolie-Anne S. Ansley; Downey Brand, David R.E.
    Aladjem, Meredith Nikkel and Rebecca R.A. Smith for Real Parties in Interest and
    Respondents.
    3
    Filed 4/7/2023 (unmodified opinion)
    CERTIFIED FOR PUBLICATION
    IN THE COURT OF APPEAL OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
    THIRD APPELLATE DISTRICT
    (Yolo)
    ----
    COUNTY OF BUTTE,                                              C071785
    Plaintiff and Appellant,                     (Super. Ct. No.
    CVCV091258)
    v.
    OPINION ON
    DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES,                             TRANSFER
    Defendant and Respondent;
    STATE WATER CONTRACTORS, INC., et al.,
    Real Parties in Interest and Respondents.
    COUNTY OF PLUMAS et al.,
    Plaintiffs and Appellants,
    v.
    DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES,
    Defendant and Respondent;
    STATE WATER CONTRACTORS, INC., et al.,
    Real Parties in Interest and Respondents.
    Two cases (Nos. 144282, 144283) were consolidated and transferred from the Butte
    County Superior Court to the Yolo County Superior Court (No. CVCV091258).
    1
    APPEAL from a judgment of the Superior Court of Yolo County, Daniel P.
    Maguire, Judge. Affirmed.
    Bruce Alpert, Brad J. Stephens, County Counsel; Rossmann and Moore, Antonio
    Rossmann, Roger B. Moore, Barton Lounsbury; Law Office of Roger B. Moore, Roger
    B. Moore; Shute Mihaly & Weinberger and Ellison Folk for Plaintiff and Appellant
    County of Butte.
    R. Craig Settlemire, Gretchen Stuhr, County Counsel; Law Office of Roger B.
    Moore, Roger B. Moore; Law Offices of Michael B. Jackson and Michael B. Jackson for
    Plaintiffs and Appellants County of Plumas and Plumas County Flood Control and Water
    Conservation District.
    E. Robert Wright for Friends of the River and the California Sportfishing
    Protection Alliance as Amici Curiae on behalf of Plaintiffs and Appellants.
    Kamala D. Harris, Xavier Becerra, and Rob Bonta, Attorneys General, Robert W.
    Byrne, Assistant Attorney General, Randy L. Barrow, Tracy L. Winsor, Deborah L.
    Barnes, Russell B. Hildreth and Matthew J. Goldman, Deputy Attorneys General, for
    Defendant and Respondent.
    The Sohagi Law Group, Margaret M. Sohagi, Philip A. Seymour; Duane Morris,
    Thomas M. Berliner, Paul J. Killion, Jolie-Anne S. Ansley; Downey Brand, David R.E.
    Aladjem, Meredith Nikkel and Rebecca R.A. Smith for Real Parties in Interest and
    Respondents.
    This case concerns California’s efforts to relicense its hydropower facilities at
    Oroville Dam (the Oroville Facilities). Federal authorities initially licensed these
    facilities—which are part of the State Water Project (SWP)—in 1957 for a 50-year
    period. Before the license expired, California’s Department of Water Resources (DWR)
    began the process for relicensing these facilities. It also, in connection with this effort,
    prepared a statement of potential environmental impacts, known as an environmental
    impact report or EIR, under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA; Pub.
    Resources Code, § 21000 et seq.).
    Three local governments—Butte County, Plumas County, and Plumas County
    Flood Control and Water Conservation District (together, the Counties)—afterward filed
    2
    writ petitions challenging the sufficiency of DWR’s EIR. They raised four principal
    arguments. First, they asserted the EIR failed to adequately account for climate change.
    Second, they contended the EIR failed to properly evaluate fiscal impacts to Butte
    County and public health impacts from toxic contaminants. Third, they alleged the EIR
    wrongly assumed that current facility operations comply with water quality standards.
    And fourth, they contended the EIR failed to account for potential changes to the SWP
    that could affect the Oroville Facilities. But the trial court found none of these arguments
    persuasive and entered judgment in DWR’s favor.
    On appeal, we consider this case for the third time. In our first decision, we found
    the Counties’ challenge largely preempted by the Federal Power Act (16 U.S.C. § 791a et
    seq.). (County of Butte v. Department of Water Resources (2022) 
    13 Cal.5th 612
    , 619
    (County of Butte).) But our Supreme Court vacated our decision and asked us to
    reconsider in light of one of its precedents. (Ibid.) In our second decision, we again
    found the Counties’ challenge largely preempted. (Id. at pp. 619-620.) But our Supreme
    Court, taking up the case a second time, reversed our decision in part. While the court
    agreed that some of the remedies the Counties sought were preempted, it found they
    could still challenge the sufficiency of DWR’s EIR. (Id. at p. 637.) It thus remanded the
    matter to our court for further consideration. Turning to the merits for the first time since
    this appeal was filed over a decade ago, we now affirm.
    BACKGROUND
    I
    The Oroville Facilities and the State Water Project
    In 1951, the California Legislature authorized the construction of a major water
    storage and delivery system. (Planning & Conservation League v. Department of Water
    Resources (2000) 
    83 Cal.App.4th 892
    , 898.) The resulting development, the SWP, is one
    of the largest water storage and delivery systems in the United States. (San Luis & Delta-
    Mendota Water Authority v. Jewell (9th Cir. 2014) 
    747 F.3d 581
    , 592; In re Bay-Delta
    3
    etc. (2008) 
    43 Cal.4th 1143
    , 1154.) It includes “a series of 21 dams and reservoirs . . .,
    five power plants, 16 pumping plants, and 662 miles of aqueduct.” (In re Bay-Delta etc.,
    at p. 1154, fn. 2.)
    The Oroville Facilities, located on the Feather River in Butte County, are part of
    the SWP. In the words of the EIR here, the Oroville Facilities are “a critical part of the
    SWP, providing much of the system’s water collection and storage, flood management,
    and power production capacity.” These facilities include, among other features, Oroville
    Dam, several smaller dams, the Oroville reservoir (i.e., Lake Oroville), a power plant,
    two pumping plants, a wildlife area, a fish hatchery, and numerous recreational facilities.
    Together, these facilities serve multiple purposes, including water supply, hydropower
    production, flood control, water quality improvement, recreation, and fish and wildlife
    enhancement.
    II
    The Licensing of the Oroville Facilities
    California obtained a 50-year federal license for the Oroville Facilities in 1957.
    The state needed to obtain a federal license because then, as now, federal law required a
    federal license for the construction, operation, and maintenance of dams, reservoirs, and
    hydroelectric power plants. (
    16 U.S.C. § 817
    (1); see First Iowa Hydro-Electric Coop. v.
    Federal Power Com. (1946) 
    328 U.S. 152
    , 156.) Today, the Federal Energy Regulatory
    Commission (FERC) is charged with issuing these licenses. (
    16 U.S.C. § 817
    (1); see
    County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th at p. 619.)
    In 1999, DWR—which operates the SWP—began public preparations to apply to
    FERC for renewal of the Oroville Facilities license. (County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th
    at p. 621; Planning & Conservation League v. Department of Water Resources, supra, 83
    Cal.App.4th at p. 899.) At the time DWR undertook the relicensing process, FERC
    regulations allowed applicants to pursue the traditional licensing process or an alternative
    licensing process. (County of Butte, at p. 621.) DWR opted for the latter process—a
    4
    process “designed to achieve consensus among interested parties on the terms of the
    FERC license before the licensing application is submitted.” (Ibid.) This process
    requires those with interest in the project to cooperate in a series of hearings,
    consultations, and negotiations, and it is intended to conclude with the stakeholders
    settling their differences and entering into a settlement agreement describing the terms of
    the proposed license. (Ibid.) That agreement “then becomes the centerpiece of the
    license application and serves as the basis for FERC’s ‘orderly and expeditious review’ in
    setting the terms of the license.” (Ibid.) The agreement “is effectively a first draft of the
    license” that is subject to FERC’s final approval. (Ibid.)
    From 2001 to 2006, DWR and stakeholders from various entities—including five
    federal agencies, five state agencies, seven local government entities, five Native
    American tribes, four local water agencies, and 13 nongovernmental organizations—
    participated in the alternative licensing process for the proposed relicensing of the
    Oroville Facilities. (County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th at p. 621.) After three years of
    hearings and consultations, and two additional years of negotiations, over 50 parties
    signed a settlement agreement describing the terms of the proposed license. (Id. at p.
    622.) The Counties were among those that initially participated in this process, though
    they elected not to sign the settlement agreement. (Ibid.)
    The settlement agreement’s main provisions are described in two appendices. One
    appendix contains more than 40 pages of provisions that the agreement’s signers intended
    to be included in the new FERC license. (County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th at p. 622.)
    “These provisions address environmental protection, recreation, protection of cultural
    properties, flood control, land use, and expenditures.” (Ibid.) “A second appendix added
    nearly 20 pages of further provisions that were not intended for inclusion in the new
    license, but which, as DWR told the trial court, DWR ‘nonetheless agreed to undertake to
    obtain consensus.’ ” (Ibid.) These provisions include, among others, a provision
    requiring the creation of a fund to benefit communities near the project.
    5
    Following the settlement agreement, both FERC and DWR completed
    environmental review in connection with the proposed relicensing. FERC prepared an
    environmental impact statement under the National Environmental Policy Act (
    42 U.S.C. § 4321
     et seq.). (County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th at pp. 622-623.) DWR, in turn,
    prepared an EIR under CEQA and “characterized the project under CEQA review as
    implementation of the settlement agreement, which would allow ‘the continued operation
    and maintenance of the Oroville Facilities for electric power generation.’ ” (Id. at p.
    623.) DWR’s “EIR is programmatic in nature, meaning it contemplates additional CEQA
    review in connection with later activities that are part of the project.” (Id. at p. 635.)
    DWR certified the EIR and approved the settlement agreement in 2008. As of this
    day, FERC has yet to relicense the Oroville Facilities and has instead allowed DWR to
    operate the facilities under annual, interim licenses. (County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th
    at p. 621.)
    III
    The Counties’ Suit
    In 2008, the Counties filed two writ petitions—which were later consolidated—
    challenging the sufficiency of DWR’s EIR. (County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th at p.
    625.) Plumas County and Plumas County Flood Control and Water Conservation District
    filed one of the writ petitions; Butte County filed the other. (Ibid.) Both petitions named
    DWR as respondent and named, among others, State Water Contractors, Inc.; Alameda
    County Flood Control and Water Conservation District, Zone 7; Kern County Water
    Agency; San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District; Santa Clara Valley Water
    District; and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (collectively, SWC)
    as real parties in interest.
    The Counties raised four principal arguments in the trial court. They alleged the
    EIR evaded analysis of climate change, failed to properly evaluate fiscal impacts to Butte
    County and public health impacts from toxic contaminants, wrongly assumed that current
    6
    facility operations comply with water quality standards, and failed to account for
    potential changes to the SWP that could affect Oroville Facilities operations. The
    Counties asked the trial court to set aside DWR’s EIR, to enjoin DWR from proceeding
    with the relicensing, and to award them fees and costs.
    The trial court rejected the Counties’ arguments, finding each of their arguments
    failed on the merits. In our initial review following the Counties’ appeal, we found their
    claims were largely preempted by the Federal Power Act. (County of Butte, supra, 13
    Cal.5th at p. 619.) But our Supreme Court vacated our decision and asked us to
    reconsider in light of Friends of the Eel River v. North Coast Railroad Authority (2017) 
    3 Cal.5th 677
    . (County of Butte, at p. 619.) We then considered the case again and again
    reached the same conclusion. (Ibid.) After our Supreme Court took up the case a second
    time, it affirmed in part and reversed in part. While it agreed the Counties could not
    challenge the environmental sufficiency of the settlement agreement or seek to unwind it,
    it found they could still challenge the sufficiency of DWR’s EIR. (Id. at p. 637.) It thus
    remanded the matter to our court for further consideration. (Ibid.)
    DISCUSSION
    I
    CEQA Background
    CEQA serves “to ensure that public agencies will consider the environmental
    consequences of discretionary projects they propose to carry out or approve.” (Stockton
    Citizens for Sensible Planning v. City of Stockton (2010) 
    48 Cal.4th 481
    , 488.) To that
    end, absent an exemption, an agency proposing to carry out or approve a project
    generally must conduct an initial study to determine “if the project may have a significant
    7
    effect on the environment.” (Cal. Code. Regs., tit. 14, § 15063, subd. (a).)1 “If, after
    performing an initial study, the agency responsible for CEQA compliance, referred to as
    the ‘lead agency,’ finds substantial evidence that a project may have a significant
    environmental impact, the agency must prepare and certify an EIR before approving or
    proceeding with the project.” (County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th at p. 627.)
    An EIR, as courts have often said, is “ “ ‘the heart of CEQA.” ’ ” (Cleveland
    National Forest Foundation v. San Diego Assn. of Governments (2017) 
    3 Cal.5th 497
    ,
    511 (Cleveland National Forest Foundation).) It serves to “(1) inform the government
    and public about a proposed activity’s potential environmental impacts; (2) identify ways
    to reduce, or avoid, those impacts; (3) require project changes through alternatives or
    mitigation measures when feasible; and (4) disclose the government’s rationale for
    approving a project.” (Protecting Our Water & Environmental Resources v. County of
    Stanislaus (2020) 
    10 Cal.5th 479
    , 488.) To fulfill these purposes, an “EIR ‘must include
    detail sufficient to enable those who did not participate in its preparation to understand
    and to consider meaningfully the issues raised by the proposed project.’ ” (Cleveland
    National Forest Foundation, at p. 511.) But that does not mean an EIR must be
    exhaustive on all topics. Courts look “ ‘not for perfection but for adequacy,
    completeness, and a good faith effort at full disclosure.’ ” (In re Bay-Delta etc., 
    supra,
    43 Cal.4th at p. 1175.)
    In reviewing an agency’s compliance with CEQA, courts review for abuse of
    discretion. (Sierra Club v. County of Fresno (2018) 
    6 Cal.5th 502
    , 512 (Sierra Club).)
    Courts will find an agency abused its discretion if it either failed to proceed in a manner
    required by law or reached a decision not supported by substantial evidence. (Ibid.)
    1  California Code of Regulations, title 14, sections 15000-15387 are ordinarily referred
    to as the CEQA Guidelines. We will use that shorthand to refer to these regulations
    going forward.
    8
    “ ‘Judicial review of these two types of error differs significantly: While we determine
    de novo whether the agency has employed the correct procedures, “scrupulously
    enforc[ing] all legislatively mandated CEQA requirements” [citation], we accord greater
    deference to the agency’s substantive factual conclusions. In reviewing for substantial
    evidence, the reviewing court “may not set aside an agency’s approval of an EIR on the
    ground that an opposite conclusion would have been equally or more reasonable,” for, on
    factual questions, our task “is not to weigh conflicting evidence and determine who has
    the better argument.” ’ ” (Ibid.)
    “This distinction between de novo review and substantial evidence review is often
    straightforward. A contention that an agency has, for example, provided an insufficient
    amount of time for public comment is subject to de novo review. And a contention that
    an agency’s factual findings are wrong, as a different example, is subject to substantial
    evidence review. But questions about the relevant standard of review are not always so
    clear.” (Sierra Watch v. County of Placer (2021) 
    69 Cal.App.5th 86
    , 95.) “This is
    especially so when the issue is whether an EIR’s discussion of environmental impacts is
    adequate, that is, whether the discussion sufficiently performs the function of facilitating
    ‘informed agency decisionmaking and informed public participation.’ ” (Sierra Club,
    
    supra,
     6 Cal.5th at p. 513.) Those types of “inquir[ies] present[] a mixed question of law
    and fact” and are “generally subject to independent review.” (Id. at p. 516; see id. at p.
    514 [“whether a description of an environmental impact is insufficient because it lacks
    analysis or omits the magnitude of the impact is not a substantial evidence question”].)
    But if “factual questions predominate, a more deferential standard is warranted.” (Id. at
    p. 516.)
    With those principles in mind, we turn to the Counties’ arguments.
    9
    II
    Climate Change
    A.     The EIR’s Climate Change Discussion
    The Counties first challenge DWR’s discussion of climate change. They contend
    DWR should have discussed climate change’s potential effects on hydrologic conditions
    in the Feather River basin over the proposed 50-year licensing term, discussed how these
    potential effects could potentially alter project operations, and discussed how these
    potential alterations to project operations could potentially impact the environment. We
    reject their argument.
    DWR covered climate change and its potential impacts on project operations in its
    EIR. Starting with a general discussion of climate change, DWR stated, among other
    things, that “most scientists agree that some warming has occurred over the past century”
    and that “[t]he United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]
    predicts that changes in the Earth’s climate will continue through the 21st century and
    that the rate of change may increase significantly in the future because of human
    activity.” Turning to climate change’s potential impacts on project operations, DWR
    acknowledged that climate change could affect operations. It stated, for example, that
    climate change could alter the timing of inflows into Lake Oroville.
    But in the end, DWR found potential project operation changes necessitated by
    climate change too uncertain to evaluate. Citing several different reports in the record, it
    noted that “there is a significant amount of uncertainty over the magnitude of climate
    change that will occur over this century” and “also uncertainty about changes in
    hydrologic conditions, aquatic ecosystems, and water demand that could occur as the
    result of various amounts of climate change.” It then wrote: “Given the current
    quantitative uncertainties regarding climate change and its potential effects on California,
    particularly local effects of climate change and potential impacts on the Feather River
    watershed, any discussion of potential changes to operations of the Oroville Facilities
    10
    necessitated by climate change would be speculative at this time.” DWR elsewhere in
    the EIR added that “no generally accepted standards exist regarding the assumptions
    required to model the effects of potential global climate change” and that “it would be
    speculative to further analyze potential future operations under purely hypothetical
    climate change scenarios beyond the current level of analysis.”
    The record supports DWR’s findings. Consider, for instance, an article titled,
    “Climate Change Impacts Uncertainty for Water Resources in the San Joaquin River
    Basin, California” (Climate Change Impacts Uncertainty). The article’s authors—a U.C.
    Berkeley engineering professor, two U.C. Berkeley scientists, a U.C. Berkeley post-
    doctoral researcher, and a water resources modeler with the United States Bureau of
    Reclamation—discussed two models simulating potential global and regional climate
    impacts. One model “suggests much wetter future conditions relative to present climate,
    whereas [the other model] suggests drier future conditions.” Considering these
    “divergent and equiprobable” projections, the authors concluded that “[t]he range of
    possibilities suggested by these impacts is too vast to support selection of mitigation
    projects in current planning cycles.” Complicating matters, the authors added that
    different regions could face very different impacts, as “it is well recognized that regional
    climate changes are expected to vary significantly as global climate change evolves.”
    DWR, in its 2005 report titled, “California Water Plan Update,” offered similar
    conclusions. A publication included in the report stated: “[W]hile modeling of projected
    temperature changes is broadly consistent across most modeling efforts, there are
    disagreements about precipitation estimates. Considerable uncertainties about precise
    impacts of climate change on California hydrology and water resources will remain until
    we have more precise and consistent information about how precipitation patterns,
    timing, and intensity will change.” Along the same lines, the publication further noted
    that “regional and local changes in hydrological conditions attributable to a greenhouse
    warming are uncertain.” It added, commenting on California generally, that research
    11
    “suggests that there is a risk of increased flooding in California.” But even then, it
    qualified its response, stating that “flooding depends not only on average precipitation
    but on the timing and intensity of precipitation—two characteristics not well modeled at
    present.”
    Later, in a 2006 report titled, “Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into
    Management of California’s Water Resources” (Progress Report), DWR stated much of
    the same. It found that “[c]limate model projections for changes in total annual
    precipitation in California through the end of this century are mixed”—some predict
    moderate decreases in precipitation, others predict moderate increases in precipitation. It
    also found these models “generally not well suited for predicting regional changes in
    precipitation due to their coarse discretization compared to the scale of regionally-
    important factors that affect precipitation.” And although DWR acknowledged “climate
    change could cause significant impacts on California’s water resources and water
    demand,” it ultimately found “uncertainty about the magnitude of climate change that
    will occur over this century,” uncertainty in some cases about “the nature of future
    changes,” and “uncertainty about changes in hydrologic conditions, aquatic ecosystems
    and water demand that could occur as the result of various amounts of climate change.”
    Considering these documented uncertainties at the time of the EIR, and
    particularly the uncertainties about local impacts in the Feather River basin, we find
    DWR reasonably concluded that “any discussion of potential changes to operations of the
    Oroville Facilities necessitated by climate change would be speculative at this time.” We
    also find that, after reaching this conclusion, DWR had no need to pursue the matter
    further. As CEQA Guidelines section 15145 provides, “[i]f, after thorough investigation,
    a lead agency finds that a particular impact is too speculative for evaluation, the agency
    should note its conclusion and terminate discussion of the impact.” DWR complied with
    this provision. (See Citizens’ Committee to Complete the Refuge v. City of Newark
    (2021) 
    74 Cal.App.5th 460
    , 479 [a city did not need to evaluate its potential responses to
    12
    rising sea levels 50 to 80 years in the future, in part because “the range of projections for
    sea levels by that time are wide and sea levels at different ends of those projections could
    warrant significantly different responses”].)
    None of this, however, is to say that DWR could reach this same conclusion today.
    As our Supreme Court has explained in a similar context, CEQA requires public agencies
    to ensure their analyses “stay in step with evolving scientific knowledge and state
    regulatory schemes.” (Cleveland National Forest Foundation, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p.
    504.) And so an agency’s approach that is legally adequate at one point in time may not
    “necessarily be sufficient going forward.” (Ibid.) But here, considering the information
    available at the time of the EIR in 2008, we find DWR reasonably concluded that the
    potential impacts were too speculative to warrant further evaluation. (See Marin Mun.
    Water Dist. v. KG Land California Corp. (1991) 
    235 Cal.App.3d 1652
    , 1662 [when the
    nature of future changes are “nonspecific and uncertain, an EIR need not engage in ‘sheer
    speculation’ as to future environmental consequences”]; cf. Turtle Island Restoration
    Network v. U.S. Dept. of Commerce (9th Cir. 2017) 
    878 F.3d 725
    , 740 (Turtle Island)
    [rejecting challenge to a federal agency’s finding “that climate change effects could not
    be ‘reliably quantified’ nor ‘qualitatively described or predicted’ by the agency at the
    time”].)2
    2  SWC contends the Counties’ argument also fails because “[a]n EIR is not required to
    analyze the potential future effects of climate change on the project.” (See California
    Building Industry Assn. v. Bay Area Air Quality Management Dist. (2015) 
    62 Cal.4th 369
    , 387 [CEQA’s “relevant provisions are best read to focus almost entirely on how
    projects affect the environment,” not how the environment affects projects].) But as the
    Counties note, and as the trial court found, they are not merely arguing that DWR needed
    to consider climate change’s effects on the project; they are instead arguing that DWR
    needed to consider the project’s effects on the environment under future climate change
    conditions.
    13
    B.     The Counties’ Challenge to the EIR’s Discussion
    Although the Counties challenge DWR’s finding for various reasons, we find none
    of their arguments persuasive.
    1.     Reports Discussing Climate Change
    First, the Counties argue that DWR failed to disclose scientific authorities
    rejecting its findings on climate change. They add that the propriety of this omission is a
    question of law subject to de novo review, not a question of fact subject to substantial
    evidence review. But none of the Counties’ cited authorities undermine DWR’s
    conclusion.
    One cited authority is a draft report from 2003. As the Counties explain, the
    authors encouraged water managers to try to understand the potential consequences of
    climate change on water resources. They reasoned that “reliance on the past record now
    may lead us to make incorrect—and potentially dangerous or expensive—decisions.”
    Another cited authority, DWR’s 2005 California Water Plan Update, included a finalized
    version of the 2003 report and so stated the very same. It also, as the Counties note,
    included an article from a DWR hydrologist who encouraged further evaluation of
    climate change’s effects on precipitation. He wrote that better modeling accounting for
    climate change “must be developed at the watershed level for a representative set of
    future scenarios,” that this modeling “will require help from the research community,”
    and that better hydrologic monitoring over “many years” would improve this modeling.3
    3  The hydrologist added that some “[n]ew or upgraded temperature modeling is being
    developed as part of the Oroville power plant relicensing project.” But the record
    indicates that this new modeling had not yet been developed at the time of the EIR. The
    EIR stated: “Because only limited data and tools exist to provide answers to important
    questions for decision makers, water managers, and resource planners, DWR is working
    in conjunction with others to develop a new analytical approach for the preparation of the
    California Water Plan 2010.”
    14
    But the Counties never acknowledge that both these authorities ultimately
    recognized significant uncertainties in this area. Both authorities stated: “Considerable
    uncertainties about precise impacts of climate change on California hydrology and water
    resources will remain until we have more precise and consistent information about how
    precipitation patterns, timing, and intensity will change. Some recent regional modeling
    efforts conducted for the western United States indicate that overall precipitation will
    increase . . . but considerable uncertainty remains due to differences among larger-scale
    [modeling efforts].” The cited DWR hydrologist added: “Regional precipitation
    predictions in the huge general circulation models of the atmosphere have not been
    reliable, and vary greatly among the different models. As a general rule, a warmer world
    would mean more evaporation, hence more precipitation overall. But where and when
    the precipitations falls is all-important.”
    Apart from failing to acknowledge these details, the Counties also mischaracterize
    DWR’s 2005 California Water Plan Update. They characterize the report as stating that
    “the Oroville facilities will be able to generate less [hydro]power” because of climate
    change. (Italics added.) But it says no such thing. It instead explained that climate
    change could decrease hydropower generation under some scenarios but also could
    increase hydropower generation under other scenarios. It then noted that “[m]ore
    sophisticated studies . . . are necessary for California.” Far from confirming the impacts
    the Counties envision, DWR’s report instead emphasizes the uncertainties in this area.
    The Counties’ other cited authorities are also less helpful than the Counties
    believe. One, for instance, explained that a “[r]ecent scientific study suggests that
    projected climate changes would affect hydrologic conditions in the [Sacramento River
    and San Joaquin River basins]” and so recommended that water planners consider the
    ability to adapt to changing climate conditions. But this authority included only a one-
    paragraph discussion on climate change and noted that “specific estimates of these
    changes have not been quantified.” Another cited authority—“From Climate-Change
    15
    Spaghetti to Climate-Change Distributions for 21st Century California” (Climate-Change
    Spaghetti)—stated that “the projected changes include sufficiently important near-term
    impacts, and the chances that projection uncertainties will decline precipitously in the
    near term are small enough, so that delays [in accounting for climate change] may not be
    warranted.” But this authority, like the others, emphasized the uncertainties in this area,
    stating: “Projections of climate change due to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations
    in the 21st Century are inevitably uncertain because of the chaotic nature of the global
    climate system, because of model imperfections, and because of uncertainties regarding
    what path mankind’s emissions of greenhouse gases and other atmospheric contaminants
    will follow in the future.”4
    In sum, none of the Counties’ cited authorities undermine DWR’s finding of
    uncertainty. And while true that DWR did not discuss each of these authorities in its
    EIR, it still conveyed the same type of information. It generally acknowledged the
    potential impacts of climate change. It acknowledged its past reports discussing climate
    change and water management, including the 2005 California Water Plan Update and
    2006 Progress Report. And it acknowledged that some commenters believed that
    “climate change is a reasonably foreseeable future condition that should be taken into
    account in the modeling done to simulate future Project operations.” But again,
    consistent with expert findings in the record, DWR ultimately found that “any discussion
    of potential changes to operations of the Oroville Facilities necessitated by climate
    change would be speculative at this time.”
    4 The Counties also cite a law review article prepared years after the EIR that argued
    agencies should not assume that past hydrologic variability is a good predictor of future
    hydrologic variability under a changing climate. But our focus is on the record at the
    time of the project, not extra record materials prepared after the project. (CEQA
    Guidelines, § 15162, subd. (c) [“Information appearing after an approval does not require
    reopening of that approval”].)
    16
    On this record, we are satisfied that the EIR “ ‘include[d] detail sufficient to
    enable those who did not participate in its preparation to understand and to consider
    meaningfully the issues raised by the proposed project.’ ” (Cleveland National Forest
    Foundation, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 511.) That was enough. The Counties may have
    preferred a longer discussion about the potential impacts of project changes caused by
    climate change, but the CEQA Guidelines favor a different approach, explaining: “If,
    after thorough investigation, a lead agency finds that a particular impact is too speculative
    for evaluation, the agency should note its conclusion and terminate discussion of the
    impact.” (CEQA Guidelines, § 15145; see Laurel Heights Improvement Assn. v. Regents
    of University of California (1988) 
    47 Cal.3d 376
    , 411-412 [“An agency cannot be
    expected to predict . . . exactly what information scientific advances may ultimately
    reveal”]; No Oil, Inc. v. City of Los Angeles (1974) 
    13 Cal.3d 68
    , 77, fn. 5 [“an impact
    statement prepared before reliable information is available would ‘tend toward
    uninformative generalities’ ”].)
    2.    Efforts to Quantify Climate Change Impacts
    Second, in a related argument, the Counties contend scientific authorities in the
    record show that climate change modeling is not speculative. They reason that various
    experts, including DWR in its 2006 Progress Report and those who authored the Climate
    Change Impacts Uncertainty article, used the same hydrologic modeling system that
    DWR used in the EIR here, “and modified some of the input data (reservoir inflows and
    hydrologic year types) to account for climate change.” The Counties claim that these
    reports, and particularly the 2006 Progress Report, provide “everything that DWR would
    have needed to undertake the requisite climate change analysis for the Oroville
    Facilities.”
    Although both DWR in its 2006 Progress Report and the authors of the Climate
    Change Impacts Uncertainty article attempted to model climate change impacts, both still
    acknowledged various uncertainties that undermined the accuracy of their projections.
    17
    The authors of the Climate Change Impacts Uncertainty article, for example, explained
    that they used only two global climate models, not the 19 the IPCC referenced, and that
    their results “represent[ed] only a small portion of the climate change possibilities
    described in” a 2001 IPCC report, as they considered only one emissions scenario, not the
    many the IPCC described. They also noted other issues affecting the accuracy of their
    results. First, they explained that their modeling ignored future land use changes, which,
    they wrote, could “compound the impacts uncertainties already attributable to the CO2
    increase scenario, climate modeling approach, and other operations assumptions.”
    Second, they suggested that their downscaling of the results from the two global climate
    models to the local level further “compounded” the “[u]ncertainties.” Apart from those
    issues, moreover, the authors acknowledged the difficulty of using their modeling results
    in current planning cycles, as their modeling provided “divergent and equiprobable”
    projections.
    DWR—which also used two climate change models in “an initial attempt” to
    quantify climate change impacts—acknowledged similar issues in its 2006 Progress
    Report. It stated: “All results presented in this report are preliminary, incorporate several
    assumptions, reflect a limited number of climate change scenarios, and do not address the
    likelihood of each scenario.” DWR also noted that its models’ precipitation predictions
    could not be considered reliable. It explained that “neither model accurately reproduces
    historical precipitation variability” and that, “[b]ecause of this, future variability
    represented by the model[s] can not be considered reliable.” As covered earlier,
    moreover, DWR emphasized the uncertainties in predicting climate change’s effects,
    particularly at the local level. It acknowledged “great uncertainty in the magnitude,
    timing, and location of precipitation and runoff changes associated with climate change”;
    acknowledged that different climate models reach conflicting results about changes in
    precipitation; and explained that these models are generally not well suited for predicting
    regional changes in precipitation.
    18
    The Counties never acknowledge these limitations when making their claims—
    which is arguably reason enough to reject their arguments. (See South County Citizens
    for Smart Growth v. County of Nevada (2013) 
    221 Cal.App.4th 316
    , 330 [“ ‘appellant
    challenging an EIR for insufficient evidence must lay out the evidence favorable to the
    other side and show why it is lacking’ ”; “ ‘[f]ailure to do so is fatal’ ”].) Nor do they
    acknowledge that DWR, in its 2006 Progress Report, repeatedly cautioned that its
    modeling “results are not sufficient by themselves to make policy decisions”—which is
    far from the Counties’ current claim that this report provided “everything that DWR
    would have needed to undertake the requisite climate change analysis for the Oroville
    Facilities.” Nor, lastly, do they acknowledge that DWR, in its EIR here, discussed the
    2006 Progress Report and expressly noted its limitations, stating that the “report
    explicitly cautions” that “ ‘the results are not sufficient by themselves to make policy
    decisions’ ” and that “all results presented are ‘preliminary, incorporate several
    assumptions, reflect a limited number of climate change scenarios, and do not address the
    likelihood of each scenario.’ ”
    The Counties also cite another article, Climate-Change Spaghetti, which they
    assert shows DWR could have accurately accounted for climate change. But this article
    too, which we briefly mentioned earlier, is less helpful than the Counties believe. The
    author of the article noted that scientists often graph the predictions of multiple climate
    change models on a single graph, with different plotted lines representing the different
    modeled predictions over time. But according to the author, a better approach would
    graph probability distributions, with different plotted lines representing “the probability
    of obtaining a given simulation of climate change” for a given year. So, for instance, one
    plotted line might show that by 2025 two percent of climate models used simulated no
    temperature increase, 10 percent simulated an increase of one degree Celsius, one percent
    simulated an increase of three degrees Celsius, and so on.
    19
    None of this, however, meaningfully advances the Counties’ position. While the
    author of this article favored consideration of climate change’s potential impacts and
    believed his offered approach would better depict data from multiple climate change
    simulations, he still acknowledged the many uncertainties in this area. He stated, for
    example, that climate change projections are inevitably uncertain and that this uncertainty
    is unlikely to disappear any time soon. DWR even cited this conclusion in its EIR,
    stating that, “according to [the author of Climate-Change Spaghetti], it is unlikely that the
    level of uncertainty will diminish significantly in the foreseeable future.”
    In sum, the Counties’ referenced materials tend to show that most scientists in
    2008 believed that the global climate is changing and will continue to change because of
    past and future greenhouse gas emissions. They further show that several experts at that
    time believed steps should be taken in the near term to prepare for potential hydrologic
    changes attributable to climate change. But even so, at least at the time of the EIR, not
    even these experts believed that climate change’s impacts on local hydrologic conditions
    could be accurately forecasted. As the trial court put it, “[i]t is a long step from the
    relatively generalized climate change data in the record to the project-specific forecasting
    demanded here, and [the Counties] have not carried their burden of showing that DWR
    could reasonably have taken this step.”
    3.     DWR’s Other EIRs
    Third, the Counties contend the EIR failed to “disclose the department’s own
    contemporaneous rejection in other major EIRs of sole reliance on twentieth-century
    hydrology.” (Capitalization omitted.) But we find this argument too falls short.
    Although neither of these referenced EIRs appears to be part of the record, DWR
    staff referred to them in internal e-mails. In one e-mail chain, a DWR employee
    described the climate change discussion in the “EIR/EIS for the Proposed Lower Yuba
    River Accord.” Based on a “very quick[] look,” the employee wrote, “it looks like they
    did some calculations to determine potential changes to inflow” from climate change and
    20
    found a potential 10 percent decrease in the “extreme case.” But the Counties cite
    nothing to confirm that this initial read based on a “very quick[] look” was accurate. Nor
    have they shown that the referenced “extreme” projection was nonspeculative. And even
    setting all that aside, the Counties have not even shown that DWR played any role in
    preparing this document, and we decline to assume, as the Counties do, that it did. (See
    Protect Our Water v. County of Merced (2003) 
    110 Cal.App.4th 362
    , 364 [“if it is not in
    the record, it did not happen”].)
    In another e-mail chain, a DWR employee wrote that DWR appeared to take
    inconsistent “approaches in the Monterey EIR and the Oroville EIR.” The employee
    based his comment on a document that he attached to his e-mail, though it is unclear who
    prepared this document. The document explained that in the draft Oroville EIR—that is,
    the EIR here—DWR declined to adjust projected hydrologic conditions over the next 50
    years to account for climate change. But according to the document, in the draft
    Monterey EIR, DWR concluded “that future water planning can no longer rely on
    historical hydrologic patterns alone, but must recognize potential changes, trends and
    future conditions expected as part of ongoing climate change in the State.” According to
    the Counties, “it is impossible to reconcile these two perspectives.”
    But two considerations undermine the Counties’ position. First, even in the
    Monterey EIR, as described in the attached document, DWR still struggled to predict the
    effects of climate change on hydrologic conditions. DWR purportedly found there could
    be an increase of up to 10 percent in the long-term average of SWP supplies to SWP
    contractors because of climate change. But it also purportedly found there could instead
    be a decrease of up to 10 percent in these supplies. And no scenario, as far as we can tell,
    was more likely than the other. We are left, then, with a conclusion not altogether
    different than DWR’s conclusion here that climate change’s effects on hydrologic
    conditions, particularly at the local level, are uncertain.
    21
    Second, and more importantly, the Counties’ failure to provide any description of
    the Monterey project makes it difficult to compare these two EIRs. As other cases
    demonstrate, agencies can reach different conclusions about the foreseeability of climate
    change impacts in different contexts. (Compare Turtle Island, supra, 878 F.3d at p. 740
    [accepting agency’s finding, in an opinion involving certain turtle species, that climate
    change effects could not be reasonably determined] with Alaska Oil & Gas Assn. v.
    Jewell (9th Cir. 2016) 
    815 F.3d 544
    , 558-559 [accepting agency’s finding, in an opinion
    involving polar bears, that climate change effects could be reasonably determined].) So
    while DWR might have thought it best to account for climate change effects in the
    Monterey EIR, that does not necessarily show that DWR’s approach here was altogether
    inconsistent. Lacking little detail about the substance of the Monterey EIR, we are
    unpersuaded that DWR’s failure to discuss this separate EIR requires reversal.
    4.     Federal Case Law
    Fourth, the Counties contend DWR’s conclusion is inconsistent with federal case
    law discussing climate change, including Natural Resources Defense Council v.
    Kempthorne (E.D.Cal. 2007) 
    506 F.Supp.2d 322
     (NRDC), Pacific Coast Federation of
    Fishermen’s v. Gutierrez (E.D.Cal. 2008) 
    606 F.Supp.2d 1122
     (Pacific Coast),
    Appalachian Voices v. U.S. Department of Interior (4th Cir. 2022) 
    25 F.4th 259
    , Wild
    Fish Conservancy v. Irving (E.D.Wn. 2016) 
    221 F.Supp.3d 1224
    , and AquAlliance v. U.S.
    Bureau of Reclamation (E.D.Cal. 2018) 
    287 F.Supp.3d 969
    . But in each of these cases, a
    federal agency largely ignored data on climate change.
    In NRDC, for instance, the district court indicated that a federal agency might be
    able to “rationally discount[]” information on climate change’s potential effect on
    precipitation “because of its inconclusive nature.” (NRDC, supra, 506 F.Supp.2d at p.
    369.) But because the agency before it never meaningfully discussed the topic, the court
    found it “impossible to determine whether the information was rationally discounted
    because of its inconclusive nature, or arbitrarily ignored.” (Ibid., fn. omitted.) In Pacific
    22
    Coast, similarly, the same district court faulted a federal agency for its “total failure to
    address, adequately explain, and analyze the effects of global climate change on the
    species.” (Pacific Coast, supra, 606 F.Supp.2d at p. 1184.)
    The remaining cited cases are similar. In Appalachian Voices v. U.S. Department
    of Interior, supra, 
    25 F.4th 259
    , the Fourth Circuit found an agency’s single sentence on
    climate change insufficient, particularly since the agency “never mention[ed] climate
    change in connection” with an endangered species, even “though other documents in the
    record suggest[ed] climate change poses a ‘persistent threat’ to the” species. (Id. at pp.
    276-277.) In Wild Fish Conservancy v. Irving, supra, 
    221 F.Supp.3d 1224
    , the district
    court faulted an agency for relying on recent historical streamflow data for modeling
    without any “discussion whatsoever of the potential effects of climate change.” (Id. at p.
    1233.) The court added that the agency “does not necessarily need to conduct a study or
    build a model addressing the impacts of climate change,” but it at least must consider the
    best available science on the topic. (Id. at p. 1234.) Lastly, in AquAlliance v. U.S.
    Bureau of Reclamation, 
    supra,
     
    287 F.Supp.3d 969
    , the court described the same general
    type of problem identified in Wild Fish Conservancy—the agency failed to consider the
    best available data on climate change. (Id. at pp. 1031-1032.)
    The Counties, however, have not shown that the EIR here suffers from these same
    shortcomings. They never show that DWR failed to consider the best available data on
    climate change at the time of the EIR. Nor have they shown that DWR failed to
    rationally explain its decision. And to the extent the Counties read these decisions to
    forbid an agency from finding some climate change impacts too speculative to evaluate,
    they are wrong. The NRDC court, as covered, indicated a federal agency might be able to
    “rationally discount[]” information on climate change “because of its inconclusive
    nature.” (NRDC, supra, 506 F.Supp.2d at p. 369.) And since then, the Ninth Circuit in
    Turtle Island accepted a federal agency’s 2012 finding that some climate change impacts
    are too speculative to evaluate.
    23
    In Turtle Island, a federal agency considered the potential effects of climate
    change on certain turtle species protected under the Endangered Species Act. (Turtle
    Island, supra, 878 F.3d at p. 740.) But the agency ultimately, in a 2012 opinion,
    “determined that there was no available data from which it could credibly project the
    impacts that climate change would have on . . . turtle survival rates.” (Ibid.) It explained,
    among other things, that “the effects of climate change will not be globally uniform, and
    the uncertainty of the rate, magnitude, and distribution of such effects on different
    temporal and spatial scales—not to mention the turtles’ ability to adapt to these effects—
    have not been comprehensively studied.” (Ibid.) The agency thus “decided that climate
    change effects could not be ‘reliably quantified’ nor ‘qualitatively described or predicted’
    by the agency at the time.” (Ibid.) Although several parties believed this discussion
    inadequate, the Ninth Circuit rejected their challenge. It found the “[p]laintiffs have
    failed to sufficiently refute the [agency’s] stated inability to offer more specific
    predictions on the effects of climate change, and they have not alleged that less
    speculative scientific information is available that the agency overlooked.” (Ibid.)
    Considering all these federal authorities, we find Turtle Island—not the Counties’
    cited authorities—most relevant here. Similar to the Ninth Circuit in Turtle Island, we
    find the Counties have neither refuted DWR’s stated inability to offer more specific
    predictions on climate change, nor shown that less speculative scientific information was
    available that DWR overlooked.
    5.      California Case Law
    Lastly, on the topic of climate change, the Counties contend DWR’s conclusion is
    inconsistent with California case law—namely, our court’s decision in Voices for Rural
    Living v. El Dorado Irrigation Dist. (2012) 
    209 Cal.App.4th 1096
    . That case involved a
    challenge to an irrigation district’s claimed exemption from CEQA for its decision to
    provide water to a casino. (Id. at p. 1100.) In evaluating the applicability of the claimed
    exemption, we considered whether there was “substantial evidence of a reasonable
    24
    possibility that increasing the delivery of [the district’s] water to [the casino] may have a
    significant effect on the environment.” (Id. at p. 1110.) We found there was, reasoning
    that a scientific analysis in the record showed that, with climate change, a future drought
    plausibly could cause these deliveries to have a significant effect—an issue that the
    irrigation district never considered. (Id. at p. 1112.) For that reason, we rejected the
    district’s claim that its project was exempt from CEQA. (Id. at p. 1113.)
    But this case is both factually and legally different. It is factually different
    because while the irrigation district in Voices for Rural Living ignored climate change,
    DWR did not do the same here. It is also legally different because of the very different
    standard of review it applied. In cases comparable to Voices for Rural Living, a lead
    agency’s decision will be set aside if substantial evidence exists that the project would
    have a significant effect on the environment—even if substantial evidence also supports
    the lead agency’s contrary finding that the project would not have a significant effect on
    the environment. (Voices for Rural Living v. El Dorado Irrigation Dist., supra, 209
    Cal.App.4th at p. 1108.) But in cases challenging an EIR, the standard is far more
    deferential. An EIR, for example, may not be set aside simply because an opposite
    factual finding “ ‘ “would have been equally or more reasonable,” for, on factual
    questions, our task is “not to weigh conflicting evidence and determine who has the better
    argument.” ’ ” (Sierra Club, supra, 6 Cal.5th at p. 512.) Because we find Voices for
    Rural Living inapposite for these reasons, we reject the Counties’ reliance on it.5
    5 Because we reject the Counties’ challenge to DWR’s finding that “any discussion of
    potential changes to operations of the Oroville Facilities necessitated by climate change
    would be speculative at this time,” we also reject their related challenge to DWR’s
    refusal to consider alternatives and mitigation measures concerning these potential
    changes.
    25
    III
    Historical Hydrologic Conditions
    The Counties next contend DWR failed to model project operations using the full
    range of 20th-century hydrologic conditions—an issue they first raised in their reply brief
    in the trial court. They state that the EIR noted historical annual flows as low as 994,460
    acre-feet in 1977 and as high as 9,492,400 acre-feet in 1907, but it then only purported to
    model project performance using data from 1922 to 1994—a timeframe that improperly
    omitted the historical high flow in 1907. They further argue that the EIR “apparently also
    excluded analysis of the twentieth century’s historical low flow of 1977—994,460 acre-
    feet.” Lastly, they assert that DWR, rather than model project operations using actual
    historical flow data, wrongly modeled project operations using hypothetical flow data
    under a fictitious scenario that included no upstream storage or diversion operations. We
    reject their arguments.
    We start with DWR’s alleged failure to include the historical low flow of 1977 in
    its modeling. Portions of the EIR, it is true, suggest that DWR excluded that year’s data
    from its modeling. The final EIR, for instance, said the measures in the settlement
    agreement “were all developed and formulated to be effective under an extremely broad
    hydrologic range (1.7-10 million acre-feet of annual inflow to Lake Oroville).” But as
    the Counties point out, the low flow in 1977 was well below 1.7 million acre-feet. And
    as the Counties also point out, the EIR elsewhere characterized the range of 1.7 to 10
    million acre-feet as the range from 1979 to 1999.
    But even so, consideration of the whole of the EIR shows that DWR accounted for
    1977 in its modeling. The EIR explained: “Extensive operations modeling performed in
    support of both the Preliminary Draft Environmental Assessment (PDEA) and subsequent
    [draft ]EIR . . . analyz[ed] 73 different inflow years into Lake Oroville.” The EIR
    elsewhere explained that DWR analyzed these 73 different inflow years using historical
    26
    data—namely, the data from 1922 to 1994—and the record includes the EIR’s modeling
    results for this timeframe.
    While the Counties maintain that DWR’s own staff e-mails show that DWR
    excluded the 1977 water year from its analysis, we find their reliance on these e-mails
    misplaced. In one e-mail, a DWR staff member e-mailed a consultant about the cited
    range of 1.7 to 10 million acre-feet. He wrote: “The text originally said this was from
    1979-2000, but shouldn’t we be citing the longer . . . 74 year data set?” In a separate e-
    mail, another employee asked whether DWR should “cite the 1.7 [million acre-feet] to 10
    [million acre-feet] annual inflow range modeled” when discussing the range of inflows
    already modeled. And in an attachment to a third e-mail, DWR staff stated that DWR
    modeled project operations using a range of “1.7 [million acre-feet] to 10 [million acre-
    feet] of annual inflow to Lake Oroville.”
    But while these e-mails perhaps show some confusion about the relevant figures
    for the 73-year data set—that is, the data set covering 1922 to 1994—they do not show
    that DWR failed to conduct modeling for these years. Again, the record confirms that
    DWR used these 73 different inflow years for its modeling. And while the Counties’
    citations to a few internal e-mails may raise questions when considered alone, we cannot
    ignore, as the Counties have, DWR’s actual modeling results covering 1922 to 1994.
    We turn next to DWR’s alleged failure to include the historical high flow in 1907
    in its modeling. Although it appears true that DWR did not account for this year in its
    modeling, the Counties never explain why that was a fatal flaw considering the whole of
    the EIR’s findings. According to the EIR, “the current calculated [probably maximum
    flood] peak inflow to Lake Oroville is more than double the highest recorded historic
    flow on the Feather River.” The EIR further indicated that the highest recorded historic
    flow was 10 million acre-feet—which is even above the high flow in 1907. The EIR,
    then, may not have included data from 1907 in its modeling, but it still explained why the
    Oroville Facilities could withstand flows comparable to (and even far higher than) those
    27
    in 1907. The Counties never explain why this reasoning was flawed. Nor have they
    shown that more modeling was necessary under these circumstances.
    The Counties’ argument, moreover, suffers from a more fundamental defect:
    They have not shown that they, or any other commenter, even raised this issue in the
    administrative proceedings. Under CEQA’s exhaustion requirement, a person cannot
    challenge a CEQA decision in court on an alleged ground that was never presented to the
    public agency in the administrative proceedings. (Pub. Resources Code, § 21177, subd.
    (a); see also Save the Hill Group v. City of Livermore (2022) 
    76 Cal.App.5th 1092
    , 1104
    [“ ‘ “to attack a decision that is subject to CEQA, the alleged grounds for noncompliance
    must have been presented to the public agency” ’ ” with “ ‘ “sufficient[] specific[ity] so
    that the agency has the opportunity to evaluate and respond” ’ ”].) This requirement is
    known as the exhaustion doctrine and serves “ ‘ “ ‘to lighten the burden of overworked
    courts in cases where administrative remedies are available and are as likely as the
    judicial remedy to provide the wanted relief.’ ” ’ ” (Tomlinson v. County of Alameda
    (2012) 
    54 Cal.4th 281
    , 291.)
    In this case, no public commenter in the administrative proceedings, as far as we
    can find, raised the Counties’ current claim that DWR should have modeled project
    operations using a historical data set broader than the 1922-1994 data set. Although the
    Counties cite over 70 pages in the record that they claim show otherwise, we find nothing
    in these pages helpful. Many of the Counties’ cited pages discuss topics having nothing
    to do with the range of hydrologic conditions, including mercury levels and meadow
    restoration projects. And while some of the cited pages have some connection to the
    range of hydrologic conditions—including those pages asking DWR to consider climate
    change’s effects on future hydrologic conditions—they do not fairly apprise DWR of its
    alleged failure to use a historical data set broader than the 1922-1994 data set. Because
    no commenter properly raised this issue in the administrative proceedings, the Counties
    cannot raise the issue now. (Pub. Resources Code, § 21177, subd. (a).)
    28
    Lastly, we turn to the Counties’ concern that DWR modeled project operations
    using hypothetical flow data rather than actual historical flow data. The Counties base
    their point on a single sentence in the EIR referencing unimpaired, rather than impaired,
    flows. We find their concern unfounded. The record shows that DWR modeled based on
    73 years of historical data—not 73 years of hypothetical data.
    IV
    Local Impacts
    Next, the Counties contend DWR failed to properly evaluate and mitigate two
    types of local impacts: (1) fiscal impacts to Butte County from increased demand for
    public services, and (2) public health impacts from mercury and bacteria in the waters of
    the Oroville Facilities. We reject both arguments.
    A.     Fiscal Impacts
    We start with the alleged fiscal impacts.
    An agency’s EIR must, as relevant here, describe “[a]ll significant effects on the
    environment of the proposed project.” (Pub. Resources Code, § 21100, subd. (b)(1).)
    Under this requirement, an agency must consider the economic effect of a project if the
    effect contributes to, or is caused by, a physical change in the environment. (CEQA
    Guidelines, § 15064, subd. (e).) To give an example of an application of this rule, the
    court in Citizens Assn. for Sensible Development of Bishop Area v. County of Inyo (1985)
    
    172 Cal.App.3d 151
     found a county needed to consider whether a shopping center, in
    potentially leading to the closure of competing businesses in a downtown area, could
    cause “physical deterioration of the downtown area.” (Id. at pp. 170-171.)
    An agency, however, need not discuss economic effects lacking the requisite
    connection to a physical change in the environment, for an economic effect in itself is not
    a significant effect on the environment. (CEQA Guidelines, §§ 15064, subd. (e)
    [“Economic and social changes resulting from a project shall not be treated as significant
    effects on the environment”], 15131, subd. (a) [same].) As one court has put it in
    29
    describing this rule, “CEQA is not an economic protection statute.” (Porterville Citizens
    for Responsible Hillside Development v. City of Porterville (2007) 
    157 Cal.App.4th 885
    ,
    903 [city did not need to consider whether a proposed project would lower neighboring
    housing values].)
    Here, the Counties assert that “DWR’s EIR lacks any quantitative analysis of the
    costs that Butte County will incur to accommodate the project’s environmental impacts.”
    They then state that these costs will arise from increased demand for public services, like
    law enforcement. But as both DWR and SWC point out, the Counties fail to demonstrate
    how these fiscal impacts are linked to physical changes in the environment—even though
    the trial court rejected their claim for this very reason.
    Although the Counties offer two general arguments to establish this link, we find
    neither argument persuasive. They first vaguely assert that these fiscal impacts are tied to
    “the project’s environmental impacts.” But we find that claim too vague to meaningfully
    evaluate and insufficient to establish a link to a physical change. They next challenge
    DWR’s finding that the project would not trigger the need for new or expanded
    government facilities to provide public services. DWR reasoned that was so after
    “[c]onsidering the small and gradual increase in the demand for public services that
    would be generated by implementing the Proposed Project, and the distribution of law
    enforcement, fire, and emergency medical services calls among several agencies.”
    Challenging this finding, the Counties assert that DWR’s own consultant “found annual
    capital improvement costs of $18,500” for Butte County and further found the net cost to
    Butte County from increased demand for public services generated by the project would
    be $386,900 per year.
    But we read the consultant’s findings differently. First, the consultant never said
    the $386,900 figure represented the costs attributable to the increased demand for public
    services generated by the project. It instead said this figure represented Butte County’s
    net cost of providing public services to visitors of the Oroville Facilities for fiscal year
    30
    2002-2003. This figure, then, represented the cost attributable to providing public
    services under existing conditions, not the cost attributable to the increased demand for
    public services that would result from the project. This figure, moreover, was relatively
    small according to the consultant’s calculations, representing only “about 0.1 percent of
    the County’s overall budget.” Second, the consultant never claimed, as the Counties
    appear to believe in citing the capital improvement costs, that the project would require
    Butte County to alter or construct new facilities. The consultant instead accepted Butte
    County’s contention that it would need to replace and upgrade certain facilities and then
    calculated capital improvement costs based on that assumption. That the consultant
    assumed the county would need to replace and upgrade certain facilities does not
    undermine DWR’s finding that the project would not trigger these changes.
    Left without any demonstrated link to a physical change, we must reject the
    Counties’ claim that DWR needed to quantify the potential fiscal impacts to Butte
    County. While the project may increase demand for public services in Butte County, that
    in itself “is not an environmental impact that CEQA requires a project proponent to
    mitigate.” (City of Hayward v. Trustees of California State University (2015) 
    242 Cal.App.4th 833
    , 843 [“The need for additional fire protection services is not an
    environmental impact that CEQA requires a project proponent to mitigate”].)6
    6 In a footnote—one of 90 substantive footnotes in their opening brief—the Counties
    discuss existing problems in the project area involving illegal dumping, vandalism, and
    other issues. But the Counties never explain the import of these existing impacts to its
    argument about the project’s impacts. In any event, we decline to consider arguments
    developed in footnotes. (Holden v. City of San Diego (2019) 
    43 Cal.App.5th 404
    , 419-
    420 (Holden) [courts need not address arguments made in footnotes].)
    31
    B.     Health Impacts
    We turn next to the alleged public health impacts from mercury and bacteria.
    Starting with mercury, the Counties contend the EIR failed to adequately evaluate
    the health impacts to those who consume fish with high mercury levels. As the Counties
    note, the EIR explained that some fish in the Feather River are high in mercury and that
    the existing Oroville Facilities increase sportfishing opportunities in the Feather River.
    According to the Counties, the EIR should have evaluated who consumes this fish, what
    quantities they consume, and whether they consume fish with high mercury levels from
    restaurants, grocery stores, and other commercial sources. They further contend the EIR
    should have discussed potential “subtle effects” from consuming too much fish with high
    mercury levels, should have acknowledged that the Oroville Facilities created the
    conditions that led to bioaccumulation of mercury in fish, and should have noted that
    women of childbearing age and children should limit their consumption of high-mercury
    fish.
    We reject their argument. The EIR, in its discussion of the environmental setting,
    explained that the presence of mercury in the project area is nothing new. Mercury is an
    existing issue, with “[h]istorical gold mining practices upstream of the project area, as
    well as the development of municipal and industrial land uses in the upper watershed and
    along the lower Feather River,” being the primary sources of the mercury. The EIR also
    explained how the existing Oroville Facilities affect mercury concentrations in fish.
    These facilities—although they do not themselves contribute mercury—trap mercury-
    laden sediments from other sources and “[b]iomagnification apparently has resulted in
    elevated mercury levels in fish from all project waters.”
    But after documenting these existing issues, the EIR stated that the Office of
    Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA)—a department charged with
    evaluating health risks from chemical contaminants (see Environmental Health
    Advocates, Inc. v. Sream, Inc. (2022) 
    83 Cal.App.5th 721
    , 726)—“indicates that there
    32
    have been no recorded incidences of mercury-related health effects from consumption of
    sport fish in California” and “has stated that there is a low potential health risk from
    consuming California sport fish from water bodies subject to fish advisories,[7] unless the
    consumption rate is considerably higher than recommended.” The EIR further explained
    that neither the proposed project nor any project alternative “would result in a change to
    either the rate or the amount of mercury accumulation within the FERC Project
    boundary.” It added that the proposed project would “include measures to educate and
    notify the public of safe limits on the consumption of fish,” including by requiring DWR
    to “post notices at all boat ramps and any other location specified by OEHHA within the
    FERC Project boundary about health issues associated with consuming fish taken from
    within FERC Project waters.”
    Under these circumstances, we reject the Counties’ claim that the EIR’s discussion
    was inadequate. Although the EIR would have been even more thorough had DWR
    surveyed all those who fish in the project area, learned of their diets, and quantified the
    amount of mercury in their diets, the Counties have not shown that this step was
    necessary in this case. As our Supreme Court has explained, “[a] project opponent or
    reviewing court can always imagine some additional study or analysis that might provide
    helpful information.” (Laurel Heights Improvement Assn. v. Regents of University of
    California, supra, 47 Cal.3d at p. 415.) But “[i]t is not for them to design the EIR” and
    “[t]hat further study . . . might be helpful does not make it necessary.” (Ibid.; see also
    7 At the time of the EIR, the project area was not subject to a fish advisory for mercury,
    though OEHHA had prepared a draft consumption advisory for mercury in fish from the
    lower Feather River in Butte, Yuba, and Sutter Counties.
    33
    Watsonville Pilots Assn. v. City of Watsonville (2010) 
    183 Cal.App.4th 1059
    , 1094 [EIR
    did not need to identify solutions to preexisting groundwater overdraft conditions].)8
    Moving on to bacteria, the Counties contend the EIR avoided evaluating potential
    impacts from “ ‘high bacterial counts,’ likely due to human and wildlife fecal waste,
    during seasonal peaks in recreation and wildlife activity.” The EIR, however, did
    evaluate these potential impacts. It explained that fecal coliform bacteria levels at several
    recreation areas occasionally exceeded a state agency’s “draft guidance for freshwater
    beaches.” The EIR attributed these exceedances to recreational users and waterfowl,
    explaining that large amounts of waterfowl visit the area and “discharge fecal wastes” in
    the water or nearby drainage ways. But the EIR ultimately found these occasional
    exceedances less than significant because a project condition “would develop a
    monitoring and public education program related to bacteria, contact recreation, and
    public noticing of conditions.”
    The Counties’ remaining challenges to the EIR’s bacteria discussion are also
    unpersuasive. First, they assert the EIR “includes inconsistent statements about project
    impacts on bacteria levels.” But they never describe these alleged inconsistencies.
    Second, they suggest DWR’s planned monitoring cannot reduce the potential impact
    from high bacteria levels, because DWR might have performed monitoring even absent
    the project. But even if true that DWR would have monitored bacteria even without the
    project, the Counties never explain how this undermines DWR’s finding of no significant
    8 The Counties also offer new arguments in their reply brief. Rather than focus on
    DWR’s alleged failure to discuss existing mercury issues, as they did in their opening
    brief, they contend DWR failed to discuss “the project’s attraction of new visitors” who
    will now be exposed to mercury. They further argue that DWR “ignore[d] that climate
    change is likely to exacerbate the Oroville Facilities’ impacts on toxic contamination.”
    We decline, however, to address these belatedly raised arguments. (Neighbours v. Buzz
    Oates Enterprises (1990) 
    217 Cal.App.3d 325
    , 335, fn. 8 [courts need not address
    contentions made for the first time in a reply brief without good cause].)
    34
    impact. Third, the Counties suggest DWR should have studied the potential effectiveness
    of its plan to provide public notice of high bacteria levels. But the Counties provide
    neither an explanation nor any authority on why a study was required here. Fourth, the
    Counties claim DWR “ignore[d] more effective mitigation measures, such as closing
    recreation areas and intercepting bacterial contaminants . . . before they reach the water.”
    But the Counties supply no evidence showing these proposed measures would be more
    effective, nor do they show that these measures were even proposed. And fifth, the
    Counties suggest that DWR has relied on deferred mitigation because the settlement
    agreement “establishes that DWR may develop a public education program if it
    determines that one ‘is needed.’ ” But the Counties’ argument is premised on a
    misreading of the settlement agreement. The agreement states that DWR “shall
    determine if a public education program is needed” in consultation with several agencies,
    and, if the answer is yes, it then “shall develop the public education program in
    consultation with the above agencies.” (Italics added.)
    V
    Water Quality and Beneficial Use
    The Counties next, for five reasons, challenge DWR’s discussion of water quality
    and designated beneficial uses within the project area.
    Before turning to the Counties’ contentions, we start with a little background on
    water quality and beneficial uses. State law establishes a goal of “attain[ing] the highest
    water quality which is reasonable, considering all demands being made and to be made
    on those waters and the total values involved, beneficial and detrimental, economic and
    social, tangible and intangible.” (Wat. Code, § 13000.) To help achieve this goal,
    California’s nine regional water quality boards are charged with developing regional
    water quality control plans, called “basin plans,” that must describe beneficial uses to be
    protected, water quality objectives, and a program to achieve these water quality
    35
    objectives. (City of Burbank v. State Water Resources Control Bd. (2005) 
    35 Cal.4th 613
    , 619; see Wat. Code, §§ 13050, subd. (j), 13240.)
    The basin plan covering the Feather River, including Lake Oroville, is called the
    Water Quality Control Plan for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins (the Basin
    Plan). It describes beneficial uses for Lake Oroville, including municipal and domestic
    water supply, irrigation, power generation, contact and noncontact recreation, warm
    water and cold water habitat, warm water and cold water spawning habitat, and wildlife
    habitat. It also describes water quality objectives for this area, including, among others,
    objectives for temperature, metals, and pH.
    A.     Project Objectives
    Challenging the EIR’s discussion of these topics, the Counties first focus on the
    EIR’s statement of project objectives.
    Under CEQA, “[t]he statement of objectives should include the underlying
    purpose of the project and may discuss the project benefits.” (CEQA Guidelines, §
    15124, subd. (b).) In this case, the EIR explained that the project’s objective “is the
    continued operation and maintenance of the Oroville Facilities for electric power
    generation, including implementation of any terms and conditions to be considered for
    inclusion in a new FERC hydroelectric license.”
    The Counties challenge this stated objective for several reasons. They first claim
    this objective wrongly “exclude[d] any serious consideration of how the project will
    operate, or might operate differently, in the next half-century.” But because they never
    explain why that is so, we reject their unexplained argument. (See Badie v. Bank of
    America (1998) 
    67 Cal.App.4th 779
    , 784-785 (Badie) [“When an appellant . . . asserts [a
    point] but fails to support it with reasoned argument and citations to authority, we treat
    the point as waived”]; Chico Advocates for a Responsible Economy v. City of Chico
    (2019) 
    40 Cal.App.5th 839
    , 846 [“an EIR approved by a governmental agency is
    presumed legally adequate, and the party challenging the EIR has the burden of showing
    36
    otherwise”].) The Counties further claim the EIR’s stated objective wrongly “assume[d]
    that project conditions are sufficiently rigorous to meet [existing] ‘commitments,’ ”
    including commitments for environmental protection. But stating that the objective “is
    the continued operation and maintenance of the Oroville Facilities for electric power
    generation,” along with implementation of any new FERC license terms, evidences no
    such assumption.
    B.     Environmental Setting
    The Counties next contend the EIR’s discussion of the environmental setting
    wrongly assumed that current operations comply with water quality standards. (See
    CEQA Guidelines, § 15125, subd. (a) [an EIR must include a description of a project’s
    environmental setting].) They reason that is so for three general reasons.
    Their first argument concerns DWR’s use of qualifiers in the EIR. They argue
    DWR, by using qualifiers, mischaracterized the Basin Plan’s objectives as aspirational
    rather than mandatory targets, including when DWR explained that “the operation of the
    Oroville facilities must reasonably comply with the [Basin Plan].” (Italics added.) The
    Counties further argue DWR hid past exceedances through the use of qualifiers,
    including when it stated that flows and temperatures “generally support[]” the spawning
    of certain fish species, that the Oroville Facilities “reasonably protect” certain wildlife
    habitat, and that reservoir drawdown during “normal operations” can affect beach access
    and black bass nest survival. (Italics added.)
    We find differently. Although DWR at times used unnecessary qualifiers,
    including when it said it must “reasonably comply” with the Basin Plan, it still made
    clear that compliance was necessary. It explained, for instance, that before FERC issues
    a new license, the State Water Resources Control Board (the Water Board) must find
    “that the project complies with appropriate requirements of the . . . Basin Plan, which
    includes the water quality objectives for protection of designated beneficial uses.” And
    although DWR also used qualifiers when describing past compliance with the Basin Plan,
    37
    including when it said temperatures “generally comply” with applicable water quality
    criteria, the Counties have not shown that it hid exceedances. The EIR, in fact, explicitly
    disclosed that “temperature exceedances do occur.”
    The Counties next contend DWR failed to disclose certain past exceedances of
    water quality standards. They assert DWR “fail[ed] to specify which metals other than
    mercury exceeded water quality standards within the project area, avoid[ed] mentioning
    what percentage of samples exceeded a given standard, and d[id] not disclose the
    potential risks associated with these violations.” The Counties also assert DWR
    misleadingly wrote that phosphorus concentrations did not exceed Basin Plan criteria
    objectives, even though its “own separate study flatly rejects this assertion, noting that
    the phosphorous standard ‘has been exceeded numerous times at all sampling sites.’ ”
    We find neither point persuasive. In terms of metals, the Counties suggest that the
    EIR described exceedances for metals other than mercury, but then declined to disclose
    these other metals. But the Counties never reveal where this occurred. In terms of
    phosphorus, the Counties mischaracterize the record in claiming that it shows
    exceedances of Basin Plan objectives. While the record reveals exceedances of the
    federal Environmental Protection Agency’s recommendations for phosphorus, it does not
    show exceedances of Basin Plan objectives for phosphorus.
    Lastly, the Counties contend the EIR failed to adequately discuss potential impacts
    to beneficial uses. They assert the EIR documented “specific failures” that affect various
    beneficial uses, but it improperly dismissed these issues without proper analysis. They
    further assert the EIR acknowledged project operations could increase water temperatures
    in the “Diversion Pool” and one other area (which the Counties do not identify), but the
    EIR then failed to address “what happens when the hatchery does not achieve water
    temperature requirements.” Both the referenced Diversion Pool and fish hatchery are
    part of the Oroville Facilities.
    38
    But although the Counties fault DWR for failing to sufficiently evaluate
    documented “specific failures,” they never identify these alleged failures. And although
    the Counties further fault DWR for failing to sufficiently discuss the impacts from high
    water temperatures in the fish hatchery, their argument is premised on a misreading of the
    record. The Counties’ record citations discuss potential elevated water temperatures in
    two areas: the Diversion Pool and the lower Feather River below the Thermalito
    Afterbay Outlet. The Counties then suggest that the Diversion Pool, the river below the
    Thermalito Afterbay Outlet, and the fish hatchery are all the same, and so high
    temperatures in one means high temperatures in all three. But that is not true. The
    Diversion Pool, the lower Feather River below the Thermalito Afterbay Outlet, and the
    fish hatchery are all in distinct locations, as the EIR shows. Apart from failing to
    acknowledge these different locations, moreover, the Counties never attempt to explain
    how warmer waters in one area could lead to warmer waters in another area. None of the
    Counties’ arguments, then, demonstrate that DWR simply assumed compliance with
    water quality standards.9
    C.     No-Project Alternative
    The Counties next challenge concerns the EIR’s discussion of project alternatives.
    An EIR must identify and discuss a range of alternatives to the proposed project,
    including a no-project alternative. (CEQA Guidelines, § 15126.6, subds. (a), (e)(1).)
    Challenging DWR’s compliance with this requirement, the Counties contend the EIR’s
    no-project alternative wrongly assumed future compliance with water quality standards
    and beneficial use requirements.
    9 The Counties also claim in a footnote that the EIR’s discussion of elevated bacteria
    levels was lacking. But again, we will not consider arguments developed in footnotes.
    (See Holden, supra, 43 Cal.App.5th at pp. 419-420.)
    39
    In support, they first argue: “Rather than assessing whether the no project
    alternative would actually protect beneficial uses, DWR assume[d] that ‘[w]ith
    implementation of the No-Project Alternative, baseline conditions identified . . . would
    continue into the future.’ ” The Counties, however, misrepresent the record. Although
    true that DWR said “baseline conditions . . . would continue into the future,” the text
    omitted with the ellipsis is significant. It shows that DWR was only discussing the
    “baseline conditions identified in Section 4.1.2,” which was a section discussing project
    geology, including the types of rocks underlying the project area—not a section focused
    on water quality and beneficial uses.
    The Counties’ next argument concerns DWR’s response to a Water Board
    comment. The board commented that the draft EIR had conflicting findings about water
    temperatures—in one part it said water temperatures generally comply with the criteria
    established for the “Feather River Hatchery and Robinson Riffle,” but in another part it
    said pre-spawning adult salmonids may be exposed to elevated water temperatures.
    Focusing on a portion of DWR’s response to this comment, the Counties contend DWR
    improperly cited a study that discussed the effects of water temperatures. They reason
    that an EIR “analyzes impacts and does not relegate decision makers or the public to
    separate, unreviewed studies.”
    But the Counties’ argument supposes that DWR did little more than cite a study in
    response to the Water Board’s comment. That is not true. Apart from citing the study,
    DWR directly responded to the Water Board’s concerns. It explained that while pre-
    spawning adult salmonids may be exposed to elevated water temperatures “in the lower
    portion of the River as water moves downstream,” the “water temperature compliance
    point” is located upstream of that portion of the river. And so, DWR indicated, it is not
    inconsistent to say both that water temperatures generally comply with established
    criteria in this area and that pre-spawning adult salmonids further downstream may be
    exposed to elevated water temperatures. The Counties never explain why DWR’s
    40
    explanation—which they never acknowledge—was flawed. Nor have they shown that
    DWR violated CEQA merely by citing a study in the record. (See City of Long Beach v.
    Los Angeles Unified School Dist. (2009) 
    176 Cal.App.4th 889
    , 902 [in response to
    comments on an EIR, a lead agency may list the specific documents it believes support its
    findings—at least when its response requires no burdensome sifting or hunting].)
    The Counties also argue that DWR failed to address its own prediction that water
    demand would rise, “assumed that no foreseeable changes in operation from changes in
    climate or in SWP and Central Valley Project management would impact the Oroville
    Facilities’ ability to meet beneficial uses,” and “assumed that no aspect of the current
    operations could be slowly decreasing in effectiveness.” But the Counties cite nothing in
    the record showing DWR predicted increased water demand, nor do they cite anything in
    the record showing DWR’s alleged assumptions.10 We will disregard these unsupported
    claims. (Cal. Rules of Court, rule 8.204(a)(1)(C) [each brief must “[s]upport any
    reference to a matter in the record by a citation to the volume and page number of the
    record where the matter appears”]; Jumaane v. City of Los Angeles (2015) 
    241 Cal.App.4th 1390
    , 1406 [courts “may disregard any claims when no reference [to the
    record] is furnished”].)
    D.     Compliance With Water Quality Standards
    The Counties next contend the “EIR’s wrongful assertion of existing compliance
    allowed DWR to evade proof that future project operations will protect water quality and
    beneficial uses.” (Capitalization omitted.) But the Counties never establish their premise
    that the EIR simply asserted existing compliance.
    Attempting to establish this premise, the Counties state: DWR “repeatedly asserts
    that the proposed project measures meet beneficial uses because they are ‘more protective
    10  Although the Counties elsewhere challenge DWR’s evaluation of climate change, we
    reject their arguments for reasons already covered.
    41
    and [enhance] water quality beneficial uses and aquatic resources.’ ” The Counties then
    contend being more protective means little and “does not equate to basin plan
    compliance.” But the Counties misread the record. At the cited page of the record, DWR
    did not claim that the proposed project measures would satisfy Basin Plan requirements
    simply because they would be “more protective” than existing measures. It instead said
    the “Proposed Project, when compared to the PDEA Proposed Action, is more protective
    and enhances water quality beneficial uses and aquatic resources.”
    The Counties also assert: “DWR presumes that ‘[a]ll programs described in the
    Proposed Project would be implemented to continue and enhance the reasonable
    protection of the designated beneficial uses in the [Basin Plan].’ ” But while the quoted
    text implies that existing operations are reasonably protective of the designated beneficial
    uses in the Basin Plan, it does not presume, as the Counties believe, that existing
    operations are always compliant with Basin Plan requirements. Again, the EIR expressly
    disclosed that exceedances of Basin Plan standards have occurred.
    E.     Mitigation Measures and Alternatives
    Lastly on the topics of water quality and beneficial uses, the Counties contend
    DWR needed to consider mitigation measures and alternatives to address certain impacts.
    They raise three points in support.
    First, the Counties claim “DWR failed to acknowledge that the California Water
    Plan Update 2005 predicts formidable challenges to meeting beneficial use objectives in
    the future.” But they never describe these predicted “formidable challenges.” As best we
    can tell after reviewing their record citation, the Counties are alluding to climate change.
    But as already discussed, we find the Counties’ challenge to DWR’s climate change
    discussion unpersuasive.
    Second, the Counties assert DWR failed to acknowledge that it might need to
    release water from storage to protect the Delta smelt, which could result in reservoir
    levels falling below that needed to maintain cold waters for salmon in the reservoirs. But
    42
    the Counties supply no evidence showing that increased releases to protect the Delta
    smelt are even anticipated. And to the extent the Counties speculate this could occur,
    speculation is not enough. (Friends of Riverside’s Hills v. City of Riverside (2018) 
    26 Cal.App.5th 1137
    , 1152 [speculation about environmental impacts is insufficient].)
    Third, the Counties claim DWR offered conflicting comments about a future
    “biological opinion” that could affect SWP operations. They reason that DWR said it
    could not predict the terms of the future biological opinion, but it then, inconsistently,
    predicted those terms and said they would not affect the majority of release requirements
    from Lake Oroville. We will discuss later in this opinion the import of certain biological
    opinions for the SWP. For now, it is enough to say this: The Counties mischaracterize
    the record. Although the Counties claim that DWR offered conflicting comments about a
    single biological opinion, the record shows that DWR was discussing two distinct
    biological opinions. It found it could not predict the terms of a new biological opinion
    “related to salmonids,” and it then found the terms of a new biological opinion “related to
    Delta smelt” would not affect the majority of release requirements from Oroville.
    VI
    The State Water Project
    The Counties next contend DWR failed to account for potential SWP changes that
    could affect project operations. They raise three arguments on this topic, none of which
    we find persuasive.
    A.     Biological Opinions
    The Counties’ first argument concerns the biological opinions that we mentioned
    above. Before getting into the substance of the Counties’ argument, we start with some
    background about these opinions—background that the Counties largely neglect to
    provide.
    “When an agency plans to undertake action that might ‘adversely affect’ a
    protected species [under the federal Endangered Species Act], the agency must consult
    43
    with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service
    (NMFS) (together, ‘Services’) before proceeding.” (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service v.
    Sierra Club, Inc. (2021) ___ U.S. ___ [
    141 S.Ct. 777
    , 783-784].) “The goal of the
    consultation is to assist the Services in preparing an official ‘biological opinion’ on
    whether the agency’s proposal will jeopardize the continued existence of threatened or
    endangered species.” (Id. at p. 784.) “If the Services conclude that the action will cause
    ‘jeopardy,’ they must propose ‘reasonable and prudent alternatives’ to the action that
    would avoid harming the threatened species.” (Ibid.) In that event, the agency
    “consulting with the Services” must “either implement the reasonable and prudent
    alternatives, terminate the action altogether, or seek an exemption from the Endangered
    Species Committee.” (Ibid.)
    Shortly before DWR released its draft EIR here, FWS and NMFS each prepared a
    biological opinion evaluating the impacts of two water projects—the SWP and the
    Central Valley Project—on certain threatened and endangered fish species. (NRDC,
    supra, 506 F.Supp.2d at pp. 328, 331; Pacific Coast, 
    supra,
     606 F.Supp.2d at pp. 1127-
    1128.) FWS’s opinion considered impacts on the Delta smelt; NMFS’s opinion
    considered impacts on several salmon species. (NRDC, at p. 328; Pacific Coast, at p.
    1127.) But before DWR filed the final EIR here, a federal court found both these
    opinions inadequate and required the agencies to prepare new biological opinions.
    (NRDC, at pp. 369, 387-388; Pacific Coast, at pp. 1184, 1193-1194.)
    DWR covered this background in its final EIR. It also responded to comments
    that the EIR should account for future changes in regulatory requirements, including any
    changes under the future biological opinions. Starting with the opinion covering salmon,
    DWR said it anticipated that NMFS would issue a new opinion in winter 2008-2009.
    DWR added that the federal court could impose interim remedies in the meantime. But it
    ultimately found it could not “predict at this time what the interim remedies will be or
    what the new [biological opinion] will contain to protect these fish.” Turning to the
    44
    opinion covering the Delta smelt, DWR noted that FWS would issue a new opinion in fall
    2008. It also said the federal court had imposed interim remedies to govern SWP
    operations until the issuance of the new opinion. But DWR found neither the interim
    remedies nor the anticipated biological opinion “will affect the majority of release
    requirements from Oroville.” It added that the required changes—which generally would
    reduce Oroville releases in early summer and slightly increase releases in summer and
    early fall—“might increase carryover storage in Lake Oroville,” but “[t]hese differences
    would be minor and would not have an effect on the ability to meet future water
    temperature or flow objectives in the Feather River below Oroville.”
    With that background, we turn to the Counties’ argument. Without distinguishing
    the two biological opinions, the Counties claim DWR’s responses were inadequate. They
    first claim “DWR vaguely assert[ed] that the ‘majority’ of release requirements from
    Oroville would remain unaffected.” But they never acknowledge that DWR went on to
    specify these release requirements, explaining that they included “[f]lood control
    releases, Bay-Delta water quality releases, Feather River [Settlement Agreement] water
    rights deliveries, and in-stream flow releases as required by agreements with [the
    Department of Fish and Wildlife] and requirements by NMFS in the current [biological
    opinion].” The Counties next claim DWR’s “assert[ion] that ‘[it] cannot predict at this
    time . . . what the new [biological opinion] will contain’ ” is flawed, because the
    settlement agreement’s stated purpose is to resolve “ ‘all issues that may arise’ in
    connection with the proposed new project license.” But if DWR cannot predict the terms
    of the new biological opinion—which not even the Counties appear to dispute—then it
    cannot resolve potential issues associated with those unknown terms.
    B.     Normal Operations
    The Counties’ next argument concerns a provision in the settlement agreement
    discussing potential reductions in minimum flow releases. The provision states: “If the
    April 1 runoff forecast in a given water year indicates that, under normal operation of
    45
    [the Project], Oroville Reservoir will be drawn to elevation 733 feet (approximately
    1,500,000 acre-feet), minimum flows in the [high flow channel] may be diminished on a
    monthly average basis, in the same proportion as the respective monthly deficiencies
    imposed upon deliveries for agricultural use from the Project; however, in no case shall
    the minimum flow releases be reduced by more than 25 percent.” (Italics added.)
    According to the Counties, because the phrase “normal operation” is not defined,
    “considerable controversy could ensue over whether the ‘new’ normal or some older
    version should prevail.” The Counties say nothing more on the topic and cite no legal
    authority.
    We fail to understand the Counties’ purpose in raising this point. Perhaps they
    seek only to make a general observation about a perceived ambiguity in the settlement
    agreement. Or perhaps they believe the potential for future controversy violates some
    law. To the extent it is the latter, however, we find their unexplained and unsupported
    argument forfeited. (Badie, supra, 67 Cal.App.4th at pp. 784-785.) To the extent,
    moreover, the Counties seek to unwind the settlement agreement, their position fails for
    another reason. As our Supreme Court already explained, the Counties can neither
    challenge the environmental sufficiency of the settlement agreement nor “seek to unwind
    it.” (County of Butte, supra, 13 Cal.5th at p. 637.)
    C.     Increased Water Demand
    The Counties’ last argument involving the SWP concerns DWR’s response to a
    Water Board comment letter. In the letter, the Water Board asserted that the draft EIR
    “does not include an adequate discussion of the impact of [SWP] operations on the
    Proposed Project.” It reasoned that the EIR should have considered the potential impacts
    of increased future demand for SWP water “on the cold water pool available in Lake
    Oroville.” Butte County, raising a similar point in its own comment letter, said the EIR
    should have considered “changes in SWP deliveries.”
    46
    In response to the Water Board, DWR stated that “[a]nalysis of future changes to
    the [SWP] statewide operations is outside the scope of this EIR.” And in response to
    Butte County, DWR stated that it could “only study and model what is currently known,
    or what can reasonably be foreseen to occur with respect to Project operating rules”; that
    “[i]t is not possible to predict all potential hypothetical future changes in SWP operating
    conditions, and how those changes might affect future Lake Oroville operations, within
    the context of this EIR”; and that “[a]ny future changes in SWP operations materially
    affecting water deliveries, if outside the current authorizations, would be subject to a
    separate environmental review and likely a separate EIR.”
    Challenging this response, the Counties contend DWR improperly treated “the
    Oroville project and the SWP as analytically distinct,” even though “SWP-related
    downstream pressures will affect upstream demands on project operation in the Feather
    River and Lake Oroville.” The Counties’ argument, however, is premised on a
    misunderstanding of DWR’s response. DWR did not find that the Oroville project and
    the SWP are, in the Counties’ words, “analytically distinct.” It instead found that
    unforeseeable changes to SWP operations could not be studied in the EIR and that future
    material changes to SWP operations would be subject to a separate environmental review
    if outside current authorizations. DWR also confirmed elsewhere in the EIR that it did
    not perceive the Oroville project and the SWP to be analytically distinct, including when
    it acknowledged that SWP water demands and certain future SWP infrastructure
    improvements would affect project operations.
    VII
    Record Costs
    Finally, the Counties contend the amount they were required to pay to prepare the
    administrative record was too high. As a condition of proceeding to trial, the trial court
    required the Counties to pay $675,087 to DWR to prepare the 327,261-page record. The
    Counties paid the amount under protest. Calling this “one of the darkest passages in
    47
    California’s storied water history,” the Counties contend the trial court abused its
    discretion for various reasons, none of which we find persuasive.
    We start with some background principles. In CEQA cases, the petitioner must
    ask the respondent agency to prepare the record, prepare the record itself, or agree to an
    alternative method of preparing the record, subject to the respondent agency’s
    certification of the record’s accuracy. (Pub. Resources Code, § 21167.6, subds. (a),
    (b)(2).) If the petitioner relies on the agency to prepare the record, as happened in this
    case, “[t]he parties shall pay any reasonable costs or fees imposed for the preparation of
    the record of proceedings in conformance with any law or rule of court”—though, should
    the petitioner prevail in its suit, it is ordinarily able to recover the amounts it paid to
    prepare the record. (Id., subd. (b)(1); see Code Civ. Proc., § 1095.) “ ‘Whether a
    particular cost to prepare an administrative record was necessary and reasonable is an
    issue for the sound discretion of the trial court. [Citations.] Discretion is abused only
    when, in its exercise, the court “exceeds the bounds of reason, all of the circumstances
    being considered.” [Citation.] The appellant has the burden of establishing an abuse of
    discretion.’ ” (The Otay Ranch, L.P. v. County of San Diego (2014) 
    230 Cal.App.4th 60
    ,
    68.)
    Challenging the trial court’s decision here, the Counties first assert that the costs
    imposed far exceed those imposed in other cases, are the “most unjustified in CEQA
    history,” and “represent an unprecedented abuse of power.” We reject their argument.
    Although the total amount here may be high, this is not a typical CEQA case. CEQA
    contemplates that an agency will generally take under 60 days to prepare a record, with
    more time allotted if appropriate. (Pub. Resources Code, § 21167.6, subds. (b)(1), (c).)
    But in this case, the evidence shows it took over a year of “intensive and . . .
    continuous[]” efforts for DWR to prepare the record. It also shows that the record was
    unusually large, concerned a project spanning more than a decade, and involved hundreds
    48
    of DWR employees with potential record materials. This context—which the Counties
    never acknowledge—is important.
    The price DWR charged per page for preparing the record ($2.06), moreover, was
    not unprecedented. The trial court explained as much in its decision, citing River Valley
    Preservation Project v. Metropolitan Transit Development Bd. (1995) 
    37 Cal.App.4th 154
    . In that case, the trial court found reasonable a cost per page of about $2.55 (id. at
    pp. 180-181 [$10,194.05 for 4,000 pages]), and the reviewing court later found the trial
    court “acted well within its discretion in finding costs claimed by [the agency] were
    reasonable” (id. at pp. 181-182). Because the Counties neither acknowledge the trial
    court’s reasoning nor show that a charge of $2.06 per page is too high, we find their
    effort to characterize the trial court’s decision as “an unprecedented abuse of power”
    unpersuasive. (See ibid.; cf. California Public Records Research, Inc. v. County of
    Alameda (2019) 
    37 Cal.App.5th 800
    , 803 [county did not “abuse its discretion when it
    determined that charging $3.50 per page was necessary to recover the direct and indirect
    costs of making copies”].) Nor do we find the Counties’ efforts to downgrade the trial
    court judge’s credentials, calling him a “pro tem judge,” helpful or even accurate. The
    judge here has been a judge, not a pro tem judge, for over a decade.
    Second, the Counties contend the costs should have been lower because 74,348
    pages in the CEQA record “already appear in FERC’s official docket for the pending
    federal Oroville relicensing proceedings.” But the Counties cite nothing to support their
    stated figure of 74,348 pages. Nor have they shown any meaningful overlap between the
    two records. Although the record does vaguely describe an overlap of “thousands” of
    pages, that could still mean an overlap of less than one percent given the 327,261-page
    record here. Without more information about the extent of the overlap, we are not
    persuaded that this potentially minimal overlap renders the costs here excessive. Nor do
    we find persuasive the Counties’ additional claim that they at least expected costs to be
    lower given the records in the FERC proceeding. While the Counties may have expected
    49
    costs to be lower, they provide no authority showing that expectation to be legally
    significant.
    Third, the Counties assert DWR charged “exorbitant sums to prepare the record
    that [it] certified it had maintained at the time of project approval.” (Capitalization
    removed.) Their reasoning is premised on CEQA Guidelines section 15094, subdivision
    (b)(9), which, as relevant here, requires a lead agency to notify the public within five
    working days of project approval “where a copy of the final EIR and the record of project
    approval may be examined.” In the Counties’ view, because DWR had an independent
    duty to maintain the administrative record under CEQA Guidelines section 15094, it
    could not later charge the Counties for the cost of preparing the record—or at least, it
    could not charge the Counties as much as it did.
    The Counties misinterpret CEQA Guidelines section 15094. That provision, as
    relevant here, simply requires the lead agency to provide notice of where to find the
    record materials—which in this case, was DWR’s office in downtown Sacramento. It
    does not require the lead agency to prepare the record for review. Public Resources Code
    section 21167.6 instead imposes this requirement. It requires the lead agency to prepare
    the record after a plaintiff has filed suit to challenge the EIR and asked the agency to
    prepare the record. (Pub. Resources Code, § 21167.6, subds. (a), (b).) It also
    demonstrates that preparing the record can take a significant amount of time, even after
    the lead agency has already complied with CEQA Guidelines section 15094. (Pub.
    Resources Code, § 21167.6, subds. (b)(1), (c).)
    Fourth, the Counties contend DWR’s costs were excessive because it conducted
    “200 interviews with employees simply to determine if they had records” and charged
    “hundreds of hours to perform such tasks as reviewing their own emails and files and for
    a ‘second level’ review.” The referenced DWR staff person, however, did not interview
    200 employees to determine if they had records; he instead contacted 200 individuals to
    ask whether they had records. The Counties never explain why contacting individuals to
    50
    find records was unreasonable. Although the record shows DWR staff spent significant
    time reviewing their own e-mails and files, with a few people also conducting “2nd level
    review of electronic staff files and e-mails,” the record also shows that “the EIR for the
    Oroville Facilities Relicensing project spanned more than a decade and involved dozens
    of DWR staff at several offices.” Given this context, which the Counties never
    acknowledge, we are not persuaded that the trial court abused its discretion in finding
    DWR’s cost reasonable.
    Fifth, the Counties assert that some of DWR’s cost items were inappropriate. Part
    of their objection concerns DWR’s accounting system. DWR calculated administrative
    record costs using an existing accounting system that it has used since 1999 to calculate,
    among other things, reimbursements for the costs of running the SWP. DWR’s
    accounting system is intended to capture, for each employee, the “true costs” of that
    employee’s services and includes, among other things, direct employee costs, benefits,
    and overhead. Without acknowledging this accounting system and its purpose of
    capturing true costs, the Counties suggest that DWR acted inappropriately in seeking
    recovery for employee benefits and their share of overhead. But they offer no
    explanation nor any legal authority for challenging DWR’s approach, other than to say
    that DWR acted “brazenly.” We reject their undeveloped argument. (Badie, supra, 67
    Cal.App.4th at pp. 784-785; see also The Otay Ranch, L.P. v. County of San Diego,
    
    supra,
     230 Cal.App.4th at pp. 70-71 [an agency can recover “actual” costs when the costs
    are reasonably and necessarily incurred for preparation of the administrative record; these
    costs are not “limit[ed] . . . to certain categories”].)
    The Counties further object to DWR obtaining reimbursement for costs labeled as
    “Litigation Expenses” and for the costs for one of its consultants. Starting with the
    “Litigation Expenses,” the Counties assert that DWR’s failure to “distinguish between
    ‘costs’ of ministerial record assembly and ‘costs’ of litigation defense vitiates a claim for
    recovery of any of these dollars.” But DWR explained the “Litigation” category in a
    51
    declaration in the trial court proceedings. It explained it “created a cost object called
    ‘Litigation’ ” after the Counties filed suit and then instructed all staff “to assign line staff
    work, consultant fees, and other costs incurred in assembling and preparing the
    administrative record to this cost object.” Because the Counties fail to dispute or even
    acknowledge this evidence, they have failed to meet their burden to show that the trial
    court abused its discretion.
    Turning to the consultant’s costs, the Counties contend one consultant’s task
    orders “fail[ed] to segregate work on the merits from work on CEQA review” and
    assigned both the same billing number. They add that the consultant’s timesheets appear
    to include time spent on defending the EIR. But in a declaration in the trial court
    proceedings, DWR described its efforts to address this issue. It explained that it
    “examined the charges to ensure that the tasks billed were for record preparation only”
    and “removed [the consultant’s] charges from the final bill for record preparation that did
    not relate[] to preparation of the administrative record and assigned them to a separate
    task order.” Because the Counties never explain how this effort fell short, nor even
    acknowledge this effort to remove inappropriate charges, they have not demonstrated that
    the trial court abused its discretion. (See Najera v. Huerta (2011) 
    191 Cal.App.4th 872
    ,
    877 [“On appeal, the burden is on the party complaining to establish an abuse of
    discretion, and unless a clear case of abuse is shown along with a miscarriage of justice, a
    reviewing court will not substitute its opinion and thereby divest the trial court of its
    discretionary power”].)
    Lastly, the Counties argue that the cost award should be set aside because it was
    oppressively high. But even when costs are high, Public Resources Code section
    21167.6, subdivision (b)(1) still says that the “[t]he parties shall pay any reasonable costs
    or fees imposed for the preparation of the record of proceedings in conformance with any
    law or rule of court.” Because the Counties offer neither authority nor a rational
    explanation for evading this requirement, we reject their argument. (Badie, supra, 67
    52
    Cal.App.4th at pp. 784-785.) We also find their efforts to bolster this argument in their
    reply brief fall short. They first suggest that DWR purposefully “r[a]n up the cost bill”
    because it disliked them. They then claim that DWR artificially increased the cost bill to
    solve budget difficulties. We reject these baseless claims, neither of which are supported
    with any citation to the record.11
    DISPOSITION
    The judgment is affirmed. Respondents are entitled to recover their costs on
    appeal. (Cal. Rules of Court, rule 8.278(a).)
    /s/
    BOULWARE EURIE, J.
    We concur:
    /s/
    ROBIE, Acting P. J.
    /s/
    HULL, J.
    11 In their reply brief and in footnotes to their opening brief, the Counties also argue that
    costs should have been substantially lower because DWR wrongly charged for staff time
    spent on “modeling” and because this case involves an electronic, not paper, record.
    Again, however, we decline to address arguments raised in footnotes and in the reply
    brief. (Holden, supra, 43 Cal.App.5th at pp. 419-420; Neighbours v. Buzz Oates
    Enterprises, supra, 217 Cal.App.3d at p. 335, fn. 8.)
    53