Ted Cruz for Senate v. Federal Election Commission ( 2021 )


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  •        TED CRUZ FOR SENATE, et al., Plaintiffs
    v.
    FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION, et al.,
    Defendants.
    Civil No. 19-cv-908 (NJR) (APM) (TJK).
    United States District Court, District of Columbia
    June 3, 2021.
    Charles J. Cooper, John D. Ohlendorf, J. Joel Alicea,
    Cooper & Kirk, PLLC, and Chris Gober, The Gober Group
    PLLC, for Plaintiffs.
    Lisa J. Stevenson, Kevin Deeley, Harry J. Summers, Seth
    Nesin, and Tanya Senanayake, Federal Election Commission,
    Washington, DC, for Defendants.
    Before: RAO, Circuit Judge, MEHTA and KELLY, District
    Judges.
    MEMORANDUM OPINION
    RAO, Circuit Judge:
    In our constitutional democracy, elections are the primary
    way for the people to express their political will. Political
    speech promotes the free exchange of ideas about principles of
    government, pressing policy matters, and the relative merits of
    candidates for office. In recognition of the centrality of free
    speech to our democracy, the Supreme Court has consistently
    held that “the First Amendment ‘has its fullest and most urgent
    application’ to speech uttered during a campaign for political
    office.” Eu v. San Fran. Cnty. Dem. Cent. Comm., 
    489 U.S. 214
    , 223 (1989) (quoting Monitor Patriot Co. v. Roy, 
    401 U.S. 265
    , 272 (1971)). Protections for political speech extend to
    2
    campaign financing because effective speech requires
    spending money. See Buckley v. Valeo, 
    424 U.S. 1
    , 19–23
    (1976) (per curiam).
    This case raises a constitutional challenge to a somewhat
    obscure campaign finance restriction that limits the amount of
    post-election contributions that may be used to repay a
    candidate’s pre-election loans. Section 304 of the Bipartisan
    Campaign Reform Act of 2002 prohibits candidates from using
    post-election contributions to repay personal loans over
    $250,000. See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30116
    (j) (the “loan-repayment
    limit”). Senator Rafael Edward “Ted” Cruz and his campaign
    committee Ted Cruz for Senate brought this suit to invalidate
    and enjoin the enforcement of Section 304 and its
    implementing regulation. We find that the loan-repayment
    limit burdens political speech and thus implicates the
    protection of the First Amendment. Because the government
    has failed to demonstrate that the loan-repayment limit serves
    an interest in preventing quid pro quo corruption, or that the
    limit is sufficiently tailored to serve this purpose, the loan-
    repayment limit runs afoul of the First Amendment. We
    therefore grant summary judgment for Senator Cruz and his
    campaign.
    I.
    A.
    Candidates for federal office require substantial funds to
    support their campaigns. Funding may come from individual
    contributions, which are subject to a per-election cap. 1 See
    1
    The current base limit is set at $2,900 per election. See 
    86 Fed. Reg. 7,867
    , 7,869 (Feb. 2, 2021). A primary election, general election,
    3
    Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (“FECA”), Pub. L. No.
    92-225, 
    86 Stat. 3
     (codified as amended at 
    52 U.S.C. § 30116
    );
    see also 
    52 U.S.C. § 30116
    (a)(1)(A) & (c). Candidates may
    also self-finance their campaigns without monetary limits. See
    
    11 C.F.R. § 110.10
    ; see also Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at
    51–54. Self-
    financing often takes the form of loans, either from a
    candidate’s personal funds or through a third-party lender. A
    campaign may repay a candidate’s loans using contributions
    received both before and after the election. Under Section 304
    of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (“BCRA”),
    however, a campaign may repay only $250,000 of a
    candidate’s pre-election loans with post-election contributions.
    See Pub. L. No. 107-155, § 304, 
    116 Stat. 81
     (codified at 
    52 U.S.C. § 30116
    (j)).
    The loan-repayment limit intersects with other restrictions
    on the use of campaign contributions promulgated by the
    Federal Election Commission (“FEC” or “Commission”). For
    instance, an individual may designate a contribution for a
    particular election, including a previous election. See 
    11 C.F.R. § 110.1
    (b)(2)(i). If designated for a previous election, a
    contribution may be accepted “only to the extent that [it] does
    not exceed net debts outstanding” from that election. See 
    id.
    § 110.1(b)(3)(i). A campaign’s “net debts outstanding” for an
    election equals the “total amount of unpaid debts and
    obligations” minus its total available resources. Id.
    § 110.1(b)(3)(ii)(A)–(C). A campaign may accept post-
    election contributions only to the extent necessary to pay down
    a net shortfall. To effectuate the loan-repayment limit in
    Section 304, the calculation of “net debts outstanding”
    excludes the amount of any candidate loans “that in the
    runoff election, and special election are treated as separate elections.
    See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30101
    (1)(A).
    4
    aggregate     exceed     $250,000      per    election.”    
    Id.
    § 110.1(b)(3)(ii)(C). The $250,000 limit applies to third-party
    loans secured by the candidate and also to loans from the
    candidate’s personal funds. See id. § 116.11(a).
    A campaign has two options to pay back a candidate’s
    personal loans. First, a campaign “[m]ay repay the entire
    amount of the personal loans using contributions” made before
    the election. Id. § 116.11(b)(1). If the campaign chooses to use
    pre-election contributions, “it must do so within 20 days of the
    election.” Id. § 116.11(c)(1). Second, pursuant to Section 304,
    a campaign may repay up to $250,000 of the personal loans
    with post-election contributions. After the election, any
    balance of the personal loan that exceeds $250,000 will be
    treated “as a contribution by the candidate.” Id. § 116.11(c)(2).
    B.
    This case arose from Senator Cruz’s 2018 campaign for
    reelection to the United States Senate. The day before the
    general election, Senator Cruz made two loans totaling
    $260,000 to his campaign: $5,000 from his personal bank
    account and $255,000 from a third-party lender secured with his
    personal assets. Senator Cruz won reelection.
    After the election, Senator Cruz’s campaign had almost
    $2.5 million in debt against approximately $2.2 million in cash
    on hand. The campaign “used the funds it had on hand to pay
    vendors and meet other obligations instead of repaying [Senator
    Cruz’s] loans.” Compl. ¶ 29, ECF No. 1. The campaign did not
    use any pre-election funds within twenty days of the election to
    repay the Senator’s loans, as Section 304’s implementing
    regulation would have permitted. Instead, the campaign repaid
    Senator Cruz the maximum $250,000 with post-election
    contributions but Section 304 prevented the campaign from
    5
    paying back the final $10,000. The $10,000 balance of those
    loans was subsequently deemed a campaign contribution from
    Senator Cruz.
    Senator Cruz and his campaign (collectively, the “Cruz
    campaign”) brought suit against the FEC, alleging that
    Section 304 of BCRA and its implementing regulation, 
    11 C.F.R. § 116.11
    , violate the First Amendment. The complaint
    contends that the loan-repayment limit unconstitutionally
    infringes the First Amendment rights of Senator Cruz, his
    campaign, other candidates, and any individuals who might
    seek to make post-election contributions. Because the
    complaint concerned a constitutional challenge to a provision
    of BCRA, the Cruz campaign also applied for a three-judge
    district court pursuant to Section 403 of BCRA and 
    28 U.S.C. § 2284
    . The FEC moved to dismiss for lack of standing and also
    argued that a three-judge court would not have subject matter
    jurisdiction. The one-judge district court denied the FEC’s
    motion to dismiss, held the Cruz campaign had standing to
    challenge the loan-repayment limit, and granted the Cruz
    campaign’s application for a three-judge district court. See Ted
    Cruz for Senate v. FEC, 
    2019 WL 8272774
    , at *5–8 (D.D.C.
    Dec. 24, 2019). We convened to hear and decide the case.
    Following additional preliminary proceedings, 2 the Cruz
    campaign and the FEC both moved for summary judgment.
    2
    We assumed supplemental jurisdiction over the Cruz campaign’s
    constitutional and Administrative Procedure Act claims against the
    implementing regulation. See Ted Cruz for Senate v. FEC, 
    451 F. Supp. 3d 92
    , 100 (D.D.C. 2020). We held these claims in abeyance
    pending resolution of the constitutional challenge to Section 304.
    Order, Ted Cruz for Senate v. FEC, No. 1:19-cv-00908 (D.D.C. Apr.
    15, 2020), ECF No. 49. Our holding that Section 304 cannot pass
    6
    Summary judgment is warranted if “there is no genuine dispute
    as to any material fact and the movant is entitled to judgment
    as a matter of law.” FED. R. CIV. P. 56(a). “[I]n ruling on cross-
    motions for summary judgment, the court shall grant summary
    judgment only if one of the moving parties is entitled to
    judgment as a matter of law upon material facts that are not
    genuinely disputed.” Shays v. FEC, 
    424 F. Supp. 2d 100
    , 109
    (D.D.C. 2006). Because the Cruz campaign and the FEC agree
    that there is no genuine dispute of material fact, we resolve this
    case by summary judgment.
    II.
    To determine whether the loan-repayment limit abridges
    First Amendment rights we follow the approach taken in
    McCutcheon v. FEC, the Supreme Court’s most recent foray
    into the constitutionality of a campaign finance regulation. 
    572 U.S. 185
     (2014) (plurality opinion). First, we assess whether
    the loan-repayment limit burdens political speech and thus
    implicates the protection of the First Amendment. Second,
    because we conclude that the limit burdens political speech, we
    must carefully scrutinize the government’s interests and the fit
    between that interest and the regulatory means chosen to
    effectuate it. Even under the less exacting test of closely drawn
    scrutiny, we find the government fails to demonstrate that the
    loan-repayment limit serves an interest in preventing quid pro
    quo corruption or its appearance. Moreover, the loan-
    repayment limit has only a tenuous connection to the asserted
    government interest in preventing corruption and thus lacks the
    close tailoring necessary under the First Amendment.
    constitutional muster moots the Cruz campaign’s regulatory
    challenges.
    7
    A.
    When presented with a less familiar type of campaign
    finance regulation, we must determine at the outset whether the
    restriction burdens the exercise of political speech. See 
    id.
     at
    203–06; Ariz. Free Enter. Club’s Freedom Club PAC v.
    Bennett, 
    564 U.S. 721
    , 736–47 (2011); Davis v. FEC, 
    554 U.S. 724
    , 738–40 (2008). The Cruz campaign argues the loan-
    repayment limit burdens speech by limiting campaign
    expenditures and contributions. The FEC maintains the limit
    does not burden speech at all. We find the loan-repayment limit
    burdens political speech and thus implicates the protection of
    the First Amendment.
    The First Amendment provides that “Congress shall make
    no law … abridging the freedom of speech.” U.S. CONST.
    amend. I. This Amendment “is designed and intended to
    remove governmental restraints from the arena of public
    discussion, putting the decision as to what views shall be
    voiced largely into the hands of each of us, in the belief that no
    other approach would comport with the premise of individual
    dignity and choice upon which our political system rests.”
    McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 203 (cleaned up). Robust and free
    political discussion is essential to the republican form of
    government established by our Constitution. Given the
    fundamental interests at stake, the First Amendment
    “safeguards an individual’s right to participate in the public
    debate through political expression and political association.”
    Id. Because financing for political campaigns implicates the
    freedom to speak and to associate, the Supreme Court has long
    recognized that limitations on campaign spending “necessarily
    reduce[] the quantity of expression by restricting the number
    of issues discussed, the depth of their exploration, and the size
    of the audience reached.” Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 19
    .
    8
    Since Buckley, the Court’s decisions have focused on
    identifying whether a restriction on campaign finance burdens
    expenditures or contributions, in part because the distinction
    can affect the standard of review. 3 See 
    id. at 25
    , 44–45. But it
    is well established that both expenditures and contributions
    implicate “fundamental First Amendment activities.” 
    Id. at 14
    .
    When a candidate makes expenditures on behalf of her
    campaign, she exercises her right to speak; and when a
    contributor donates to that campaign, he exercises the right to
    associate with the candidate and to express his support. The
    contributions to a campaign in turn promote more expenditures
    and political speech by the candidate.
    In recent decisions, the Court has declined to eliminate the
    distinction between expenditures and contributions even as it
    has focused on speech interests more generally. See, e.g.,
    McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 199; id. at 228 (Thomas, J.,
    concurring in the judgment) (suggesting that the distinction
    between expenditures and contributions “has only continued to
    erode in the intervening years”) (cleaned up). The Court has
    emphasized the central question of whether and how a
    challenged regulation burdens political speech. For example,
    in McCutcheon, the Court explained that Buckley’s distinction
    between expenditure and contribution limits stemmed from the
    “the degree to which each encroaches upon protected First
    Amendment interests.” Id. at 197. The Court assessed the
    burden on expressive and associational rights imposed by the
    aggregate contribution limits challenged in that case. See id. at
    204–05. In Davis, the Court found that a regulation burdened a
    3
    While burdens on expenditures must withstand strict scrutiny, the
    Court has assessed burdens on contributions under a less demanding,
    “but still ‘rigorous standard of review.’” McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at
    197 (quoting Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 29
    ).
    9
    candidate’s expenditures because it raised contribution limits
    asymmetrically, that is, only for the opponents of a candidate
    who spent over a certain amount of his own money. See 
    554 U.S. at
    738–40. The Court focused on how the regulation
    functioned to analyze the burden that it imposed. See id.; see
    also Bennett, 
    564 U.S. at
    736–47 (evaluating the specific
    operation of Arizona’s matching funds provision and holding
    that it substantially burdened speech). In a political campaign,
    expenditures and contributions are part of a connected cycle of
    speech and association protected by the First Amendment.
    We find that the loan-repayment limit restricts political
    expression and association for candidates and their
    contributors. To begin with, the loan-repayment limit burdens
    candidates who wish to make expenditures through personal
    loans because the limit constrains the repayment options
    available to the candidate. 4 Whereas other campaign debts may
    be repaid by post-election contributions, candidate loans above
    $250,000 do not receive the same treatment. That the candidate
    makes a choice to finance his campaign with personal loans,
    rather than through other forms of debt, does not minimize the
    First Amendment harm. Cf. Davis, 
    554 U.S. at 739
     (“The
    4
    In general, a loan from a candidate to his campaign is treated as an
    expenditure. Both FECA and its regulations define the term
    “expenditure” to include loans. See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30101
    (9)(A)(i)
    (“The term ‘expenditure’ includes … any … loan, … made by any
    person for the purpose of influencing any election for Federal
    office[.]”); 
    11 C.F.R. § 100.111
    (a) (“A … loan … made by any
    person for the purpose of influencing any election for Federal office
    is an expenditure.”); 
    11 C.F.R. § 100.111
    (b) (“For purposes of this
    section, the term payment includes … any guarantee or endorsement
    of a loan by a candidate or a political committee.”); see also
    Anderson v. Spear, 
    356 F.3d 651
    , 672 (6th Cir. 2004) (“[L]oans are
    candidate expenditures, unless and until they are repaid.”).
    10
    resulting drag on First Amendment rights is not constitutional
    simply because it attaches as a consequence of a statutorily
    imposed choice.”). Candidate loans comprise the majority of
    campaign debt, and personal loans will sometimes be the only
    way for a candidate to raise enough money for an effective
    campaign in the short term. The limit places a particular burden
    on relatively unknown challengers who may require more
    financing up front in order to wage an effective campaign
    against a better funded incumbent. See Anderson v. Spear, 
    356 F.3d 651
    , 673 (6th Cir. 2004) (“[A] candidate may need to
    speak early in order to establish her position and garner
    contributions.”).
    We also note that since the enactment of BCRA and the
    loan-repayment limit, “there is a clear clustering of loans right
    at the $250,000 threshold.” Alexei Ovtchinnikov & Philip
    Valta, Debt in Political Campaigns 24 (HEC Paris Research
    Paper No. FIN-2016-1165, May 2020). During this same time
    period, the percentage of candidate loans above $250,000 has
    remained roughly the same while spending on Senate and
    House campaigns has more than doubled, indicating that the
    loan-repayment limit constricts candidate lending.
    We find the burden imposed by Section 304 “is evident
    and inherent in the choice that confronts” candidates who wish
    to use personal loans to finance their campaigns. Bennett, 
    564 U.S. at
    745 (citing Davis, 
    554 U.S. at
    738–40). The limit
    imposes a “drag” on the candidate’s First Amendment activity
    by discouraging the personal financing of campaign speech.
    Davis, 
    554 U.S. at 739
    .
    The FEC defends the constitutionality of the loan-
    repayment limit by maintaining that it does not burden political
    speech at all, because “[m]oney that repays a candidate’s
    11
    personal loan after an election effectively goes into the
    candidate’s pocket, and not to fund speech or speech-related
    activities.” FEC Mem. in Supp. of Mot. for Summ. J. (“FEC
    Mot.”) 20, ECF No. 65. The Commission highlights that the
    loan-repayment limit does not cap the amount of candidate
    financing or prohibit a candidate from loaning his campaign
    more than $250,000, and the candidate remains free to repay
    the full amount of the loan with pre-election contributions.
    While it is true that the loan-repayment limit is not a ban
    on personal financing, the First Amendment’s protection has
    never been limited to direct restrictions on expenditures,
    because “[t]he First Amendment would … be a hollow
    promise if it left government free to destroy or erode its
    guarantees by indirect restraints.” United Mine Workers of Am.
    v. Ill. State Bar Ass’n, 
    389 U.S. 217
    , 222 (1967). Laws that
    regulate in the First Amendment arena must be scrutinized
    even when the “deterrent effect on [speech] arises, not through
    direct government action, but indirectly as an unintended but
    inevitable result of the government’s conduct.” Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 65
    .
    Even indirect regulations of speech may run afoul of the
    First Amendment, because they can “abridg[e] the freedom of
    speech.” U.S. CONST. amend. I. The word “abridge” means “to
    contract, to diminish, to cut short.” 1 SAMUEL JOHNSON, A
    DICTIONARY OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE (6th ed. 1785); see
    also OXFORD ENGLISH DICTIONARY 43 (2d ed. 1989)
    (“abridge”: “To curtail, to lessen, to diminish (rights,
    privileges, advantages, or authority)”). At the time of the
    enactment of the First Amendment, as well as today, the plain
    meaning of “abridge” is to diminish or to curtail the freedom
    of speech. Consistent with this meaning, the First Amendment
    protects individuals not only from direct and outright bans on
    12
    speech, but also indirect actions the government might take to
    “abridge” the central freedom to speak freely in the democratic
    process.
    Following these general principles, the Supreme Court has
    found a First Amendment burden even absent an outright ban
    or cap, when the regulation acted as a “drag” on speech—
    which is to say an “abridgment” of speech. Davis, 
    554 U.S. at
    739–40. In Davis, the Supreme Court held unconstitutional a
    provision of BCRA that relaxed the base contribution limits for
    a candidate’s opponents if the candidate spent more than
    $350,000 of his own funds. The provision burdened free
    speech rights even though it “d[id] not impose a cap on a
    candidate’s expenditure of personal funds.” 
    Id.
     at 738–39.
    Instead, the challenged provision “impose[d] an unprecedented
    penalty” on candidates who chose to “robustly exercise[]
    [their] First Amendment right[s].” 
    Id. at 739
    . Similarly, in
    Bennett, the Court held unconstitutional an Arizona law that
    gave matching funds to publicly financed candidates if
    privately financed candidates—or independent expenditure
    groups—spent over a set amount. See 
    564 U.S. at 728
    . The
    Court concluded that the Arizona law “plainly force[d] the
    privately financed candidate to ‘shoulder a special and
    potentially significant burden’ when choosing to exercise his
    First Amendment right to spend funds on behalf of his
    candidacy.” 
    Id. at 737
     (quoting Davis, 
    554 U.S. at 739
    ). If the
    law curtails a candidate’s ability to speak on his behalf, it runs
    afoul of the First Amendment even when the law is not an
    outright ban.
    The FEC seeks to distinguish Davis and Bennett because
    those cases involved a penalty for candidate speech above a
    certain threshold, whereas the loan-repayment limit has no
    similar penalty—by loaning his campaign more than $250,000
    13
    a candidate does not indirectly fund his opponent through
    either liberalized, asymmetrical contribution limits (Davis) or
    matching funds (Bennett). First Amendment burdens, however,
    are not limited to prescribed forms. Our review must scrutinize
    regulatory burdens in order to vigorously protect the freedom
    of speech. While not identical to previously challenged
    regulations, the loan-repayment limit restricts a candidate’s
    campaign expenditures by circumscribing the repayment
    options for candidate loans over $250,000. 5
    The FEC’s insistence that the loan-repayment limit does
    not burden political speech overlooks the reality of how the
    limit functions. The FEC narrowly focuses on the repayment
    of the loan and through this lens notes that the loan-repayment
    limit does not restrict expenditures because the candidate
    remains free to loan or contribute as much money as he wishes
    to his campaign. 6 The FEC’s cramped understanding of the
    5
    On the flip side, the loan-repayment limit may also impact
    contributors. Candidate loans over $250,000 are singled out and
    excluded from the “net debts outstanding” that a campaign may pay
    off with post-election contributions. The FEC’s regulations permit
    contributors to designate their contributions for a prior election. An
    individual who wanted to contribute to Senator Cruz after the 2018
    election could not have contributed to—and thus expressed his
    support for—Senator Cruz’s 2018 election campaign if the only debt
    remaining was the Senator’s loan in excess of $250,000.
    6
    The FEC suggests there is no restriction on political speech in this
    case, relying on FEC v. O’Donnell, 
    209 F. Supp. 3d 727
     (D. Del.
    2016). That case is inapposite, however, because it concerned
    FECA’s ban on the use of contributions to pay a candidate’s personal
    expenses. The court held such contributions did not “facilitate
    political expression.” 
    Id. at 739
    . By contrast, the loan-repayment
    limit restricts political expression and implicates the First
    Amendment in a way that personal expenses for a new outfit and a
    14
    First Amendment fails to provide adequate protection to the
    important free speech interests at stake. The FEC would isolate
    the transactions at issue until they no longer resemble
    campaign expenditures or contributions.
    In determining whether First Amendment interests are
    implicated, however, we must focus on whether a statute
    burdens political speech, not whether a particular regulatory
    label is a perfect fit. The relative novelty of a campaign finance
    regulation cannot insulate it from judicial scrutiny because
    “political speech must prevail against laws that would suppress
    it, whether by design or inadvertence.” Citizens United v. FEC,
    
    558 U.S. 310
    , 340 (2010). Legislators may try different
    regulatory approaches to protect against quid pro quo
    corruption; however, any such regulation of campaigns must
    comport with the First Amendment.
    The loan-repayment limit implicates First Amendment
    interests. A candidate’s loan to his campaign is an expenditure
    that may be used for expressive acts. Such expressive acts are
    burdened when a candidate is inhibited from making a personal
    loan, or incurring one, out of concern that she will be left
    holding the bag on any unpaid campaign debt.
    This case illustrates the reality that contributions and
    expenditures are often “two sides of the same First Amendment
    coin.” Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 241
     (Burger, C.J., concurring in
    part and dissenting in part). Contributions allow a candidate to
    make further expenditures, reflecting the practical link between
    the associational and expressive activity of the candidate and
    contributor. By limiting the amount of post-election
    contributions that can be used to retire candidate loans, the
    gym membership arguably do not. See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30114
    (b)(2)(B)
    & (I).
    15
    loan-repayment limit abridges political speech and implicates
    the protection of the First Amendment.
    B.
    Because the loan-repayment limit encumbers political
    speech, the government has “the burden of proving the
    constitutionality of its actions.” McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 210
    (cleaned up). The parties dispute the relevant standard of
    review. The Cruz campaign maintains we should apply either
    the strict scrutiny applicable to expenditure limits or the closely
    drawn scrutiny applied to contribution limits. By contrast, the
    FEC suggests the loan-repayment limit must be analyzed under
    deferential rational basis review because the limit burdens no
    First Amendment interests. Because we find the loan-
    repayment limit restricts expressive and associational interests
    in political campaigns, we must apply a form of heightened
    scrutiny, either strict or closely drawn.
    Under either form of heightened scrutiny, we assess the
    government’s asserted interest in restricting speech and the fit
    between that interest and the means the government has chosen
    to fulfill it. See id. at 199. Applying strict scrutiny, a regulation
    will be upheld only if it furthers a compelling government
    interest and the government uses the least restrictive means of
    furthering that interest; whereas under closely drawn scrutiny
    a regulation will be upheld “if the State demonstrates a
    sufficiently important interest and employs means closely
    drawn to avoid” abridging First Amendment freedoms. See id.
    at 197.
    The loan-repayment limit fails under even the less
    exacting test of closely drawn scrutiny and so, as in
    McCutcheon, we have no need to “parse the differences”
    between the standards of scrutiny. Id. at 199. The government
    16
    fails to demonstrate that the loan-repayment limit serves an
    interest in addressing quid pro quo corruption. In addition, we
    find “a substantial mismatch,” id., between the government’s
    asserted interest and the loan-repayment limit.
    1.
    The government bears the burden of demonstrating that
    the loan-repayment limit serves a sufficiently important
    interest that justifies the burden on political speech. The
    Supreme Court has made clear that the only recognized
    government interest in restraining political speech is
    “preventing corruption or the appearance of corruption.” Id. at
    206–07. The Court has considered—and rejected—other
    government justifications such as “reduc[ing] the amount of
    money in politics,” id. at 191; “level[ing] electoral
    opportunities by equalizing candidate resources and
    influence,” Bennett, 
    564 U.S. at 748
     (cleaned up); reducing
    “[i]ngratiation and access,” Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 360
    ;
    or equalizing viewpoints among individuals and groups,
    Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at
    48–49. The government’s interest in
    eliminating corruption is limited to quid pro quo corruption, in
    other words, “dollars for political favors.” McCutcheon, 572
    U.S. at 192 (quoting FEC v. Nat’l Conserv. PAC, 
    470 U.S. 480
    ,
    497 (1985)). To comport with the First Amendment, a
    regulation of political speech must target only this particular
    form of corruption, which means “the Government may not
    seek to limit the appearance of mere influence or access.” Id.
    at 208.
    In addition, it is not sufficient for the FEC merely to assert
    an interest in preventing quid pro quo corruption. The
    government must demonstrate the validity of its interest by
    more than “mere conjecture.” Nixon v. Shrink Mo. Gov’t PAC,
    17
    
    528 U.S. 377
    , 392 (2000). “When the Government defends a
    regulation on speech as a means to … prevent anticipated
    harms, it must do more than simply posit the existence of the
    disease sought to be cured.” Colo. Repub. Fed. Campaign
    Comm. v. FEC, 
    518 U.S. 604
    , 618 (1996) (cleaned up).
    Moreover, “[t]he quantum of empirical evidence needed to
    satisfy heightened judicial scrutiny of legislative judgments
    will vary up or down with the novelty and plausibility of the
    justification raised.” Shrink Mo., 
    528 U.S. at 391
    ; see also
    Zimmerman v. City of Austin, 
    881 F.3d 378
    , 392–93 (5th Cir.
    2018) (discussing cases). We assess the FEC’s asserted
    interests in light of these standards.
    The FEC maintains that the loan-repayment limit
    addresses the heightened risk and appearance of quid pro quo
    corruption that results from elected officeholders soliciting
    contributions that will be used to repay their personal loans.
    The Commission posits that “[m]oney given after the
    election … provides the contributor with even more influence
    over the candidate since the candidate is benefiting personally
    from the contribution.” FEC Statement of Material Facts
    (“FEC SMF”) ¶ 73, ECF No. 65 (cleaned up). The Commission
    repeatedly characterizes post-election contributions used to
    repay candidate loans as going into the candidate’s pocket. The
    FEC also points to media reports of debt retirement parties as
    giving rise “to at least the appearance of federal candidates
    trading dollars for favors in the context of repayment of
    candidate loans.” FEC Mot. 33. The Commission maintains
    there is a public perception that individuals who contribute to
    candidates after an election are likely to expect a political favor
    in return.
    Despite these assertions, the Commission fails to
    demonstrate that quid pro quo corruption or its appearance
    18
    arises from post-election contributions to retire a candidate’s
    personal debt. We first observe that the FEC has not identified
    a single case of actual quid pro quo corruption in this context.
    This is particularly notable given that many states impose no
    restriction on using post-election contributions to repay
    candidate loans, 7 and the Commission fails to identify any
    problems with quid pro corruption or its appearance in these
    states. Cf. Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 357
     (finding it
    significant that the government failed to claim that
    “independent          expenditures         by         for-profit
    corporations … corrupted the political process” in the twenty-
    six states that did not restrict such expenditures). Here the
    FEC’s few state examples involve only concerns that
    candidates will be too responsive to the influence of special
    7
    The Cruz campaign identifies ten states that cap candidate loans or
    restrict candidate loan repayment in some fashion. See Cruz Mem.
    in Supp. of Mot. for Summ. J. 28 & n.4, ECF No. 61-1. Georgia and
    South Carolina cap the repayment of candidate loans with post-
    election contributions, similar to BCRA’s loan-repayment limit. See
    GA. CODE ANN. § 21-5-41(h); S.C. CODE ANN. § 8-13-1328.
    Although Florida permits candidate loans and their repayment with
    pre-election contributions, it bans all post-election contributions. See
    FLA. STAT. § 106.08(3)(b). Alaska, Rhode Island, Texas, and
    Washington cap the repayment of candidate loans with either pre- or
    post-election contributions. See ALASKA STAT. § 15.13.078(b)(1);
    17 R.I. GEN. LAWS § 17-25-7.4; TEX. ELEC. CODE § 253.042(a);
    WASH. REV. CODE § 42.17A.445(3). California, Massachusetts, and
    Nebraska place no limit on the repayment of candidate loans but
    instead cap the amount that candidates may loan their campaigns.
    See CAL. GOV’T CODE § 85307(b); MASS. GEN. LAWS ch. 55, § 7;
    NEB. REV. STAT. § 49-1446.04; 4 NEB. ADMIN. CODE ch. 10,
    § 004(02). The Commission does not contest that “only a minority
    of states” restrict candidate campaign loans in some way. FEC Mot.
    34.
    19
    interests or concerns about contributions unrelated to the
    repayment of candidate loans. See, e.g., FEC SMF ¶¶ 76, 79.
    By contrast, in cases that have found a sufficient
    anticorruption interest, the record has been robust. In Buckley,
    the Court cited “the deeply disturbing examples surfacing after
    the 1972 election” as demonstrating that the problem of quid
    pro quo corruption was “not an illusory one.” 
    424 U.S. at
    27 &
    n.28; see also Buckley v. Valeo, 
    519 F.2d 821
    , 838–40 &
    nn.26–38 (D.C. Cir. 1975) (en banc) (describing extensive
    factual record before Congress). In McConnell v. FEC, the
    omnibus challenge to BCRA, the record before the court
    consisted of more than 100,000 pages, including “576 pages of
    proposed findings of fact” and “the testimony and declarations
    of over 200 fact and expert witnesses.” 
    251 F. Supp. 2d 176
    ,
    208–09 (D.D.C. 2003). In Bluman v. FEC, the court pointed to
    “public controversy and an extensive investigation by the
    Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs,” including
    specific examples of foreign governments attempting “to
    ‘influence U.S. policies and elections through, among other
    means, financing election campaigns,’” as justification for
    BCRA’s ban on expenditures and contributions by foreign
    nationals. 
    800 F. Supp. 2d 281
    , 283 (D.D.C. 2011) (quoting S.
    REP. NO. 105–67, at 47 (1998)).
    A lengthy record may not be sufficient to demonstrate
    corruption, but the absence of any record of such corruption
    undermines the government’s proffered interest. The FEC
    cannot carry its substantial burden by simply asserting that
    post-election contributions to repay a candidate’s loans may
    come with expectations of a political favor.
    In the absence of any evidence of actual corruption, the
    FEC turns elsewhere. For instance, the Commission relies
    20
    heavily on an academic article that concluded “[i]ndebted
    politicians … exhibit a heightened sensitivity in their voting
    decisions to political contributions received from special
    interest groups.” Ovtchinnikov & Valta, Debt in Political
    Campaigns 29. The article, however, does not distinguish
    between voting pattern changes as a consequence of donor
    influence or access and voting pattern changes as part of quid
    pro quo corruption. In a representative democracy, mere
    influence or access is not the type of quid pro quo corruption
    that justifies infringements on political speech. A “generic
    favoritism or influence theory … is at odds with standard First
    Amendment analyses because it is unbounded and susceptible
    to no limiting principle.” McConnell v. FEC, 
    540 U.S. 93
    , 296
    (2003) (Kennedy, J., concurring in the judgment in part and
    dissenting in part). “The line between quid pro quo corruption
    and general influence may seem vague at times, but the
    distinction must be respected in order to safeguard basic First
    Amendment rights.” McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 209.
    The Commission also places great weight on a selective
    legislative history of the loan-repayment limit, arguing that
    lawmakers intended to “mitigate the heightened risk of quid
    pro quo corruption and its appearance resulting from already-
    elected officeholders soliciting contributions for their own
    personal benefit.” 8 FEC Mot. 6. Even on the doubtful
    8
    See, e.g., 147 CONG. REC. S2,462 (Mar. 19, 2001) (statement of
    Sen. Domenici) (“In fact, it should be a condition to your putting up
    your own money, knowing right up front you are not going to get it
    back from your constituents under fundraising events that you would
    hold and then ask them: How would you like me to vote now that I
    am a Senator?”); 147 CONG. REC. S2,541 (Mar. 20, 2001) (statement
    of Sen. Hutchison) (“[Candidates] have a constitutional right to try
    to buy the office, but they do not have a constitutional right to resell
    it.”).
    21
    proposition that assertions in legislative debates could carry the
    government’s burden, these statements from the legislative
    history amount to mere suppositions about the appearance of
    corruption. Moreover, the Cruz campaign proffers other tidbits
    of legislative history, including numerous statements
    suggesting that some legislators thought the loan-repayment
    limit would protect incumbents from wealthy challengers. 9 The
    competing statements in the legislative history of BCRA
    establish no clear emphasis on eradicating quid pro quo
    corruption as opposed to the impermissible purpose of leveling
    the playing field.
    In addition, the loan-repayment limit, Section 304 of
    BCRA, was enacted at the same time as Section 319, the so-
    called “Millionaire’s Amendment,” which the Supreme Court
    held unconstitutional in part because it was intended to “level
    electoral opportunities for candidates of different personal
    wealth.” Davis, 
    554 U.S. at 741
     (cleaned up). While
    9
    See, e.g., 147 CONG. REC. S2,541 (Mar. 20, 2001) (statement of
    Sen. Hutchison) (“Our purpose is to level the playing field so that
    one candidate who has millions, if not billions, of dollars to spend on
    a campaign will not be at such a significant advantage over another
    candidate who does not have such means as to create an unlevel
    playing field.”); 147 CONG. REC. S2,465 (Mar. 19, 2001) (statement
    of Sen. Sessions) (“It also prohibits wealthy candidates, who incur
    personal loans in connection with their campaign that exceed
    $250,000, from repaying those loans from any contributions made to
    the candidate. … I know there were large contributions in this last
    Senate campaign from candidates of $10 million, $60 million, and
    other amounts of money that the winning candidates in this body
    contributed from their own funds. I tell you, I am glad I didn’t face
    a person who could write a check for $60 million, $10 million—or
    $5 million, for that matter. If so, I would like to be able to have a
    level playing field so I could stay in the ball game.”).
    22
    Section 304 may serve a different purpose from Section 319,
    the text of BCRA, as well as the legislative debates, linked the
    two provisions, which suggests that the loan-repayment limit
    may also “further the impermissible objective of simply
    limiting the amount of money in political campaigns.”
    McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 218. At a minimum, the connection
    between the provisions casts further doubt on the government’s
    asserted anticorruption interest.
    Finally, the FEC relies on media reports and a YouGov
    poll, but these similarly fail to establish that restrictions like the
    loan-repayment limit serve the purpose of preventing quid pro
    quo corruption. The media reports merely hypothesize that
    individuals who contribute after the election to help retire a
    candidate’s debt might have greater influence with or access to
    the candidate. Yet this is not evidence of quid pro quo
    corruption, and minimizing influence and access is not a proper
    goal for campaign finance regulation. The YouGov poll was
    conducted at the FEC’s behest for this litigation to demonstrate
    that the loan-repayment limit addresses the appearance of
    corruption. The poll first asked respondents whether they were
    aware that candidates could loan their campaigns money and
    then be paid back with post-election contributions. FEC Mot.
    Ex. 16, ECF No. 65-16 (Decl. of Ashley Grosse, Ex. A). In the
    poll’s only two follow-up questions, 81 percent of respondents
    thought it “very likely” or “likely” that individuals who donate
    money to a federal candidate’s campaign after an election
    “expect a political favor in return,” and 67 percent of
    respondents thought donors would “be more likely to expect
    political favors” if there were no limit on repaying a candidate
    loan with post-election contributions. Id. The FEC relies on
    these responses as evidence that the loan-repayment limit
    addresses “at least the appearance of quid pro quo corruption.”
    FEC Mot. 32.
    23
    We disagree. Such generic questions do not get at the
    specific problem of quid pro quo corruption the government
    asserts this statute combats. On the government’s reasoning,
    the poll answers would raise doubts about any contributions to
    incumbents (i.e. winning candidates) who use post-election
    contributions to retire any type of campaign debt. Even if
    contributors who donate to retire a candidate’s debt expect
    political favors, that hardly demonstrates that the (now elected)
    official is more likely to grant such political favors. Moreover,
    the poll did not define the term “political favor,” so the poll’s
    responses are not evidence that the public associates such
    contributions with quid pro quo corruption, which Congress
    may regulate, or simply increased influence and access, which
    Congress may not. See McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 208. Finally,
    the poll failed to mention that the individual contribution limit
    applies to post-election contributions just as it does to pre-
    election contributions. That omission renders the poll an
    ineffective measure of public perception of possible corruption
    in this context. At most, the poll suggests that some members
    of the public distrust or are skeptical about using contributions
    to repay candidate loans, but the “tendency to demonstrate
    distrust” is insufficient to establish corruption or its
    appearance. Nat’l Conserv. PAC, 
    470 U.S. at 499
    . We conclude
    the FEC fails to demonstrate that the loan-repayment limit
    serves an interest in preventing quid pro quo corruption.
    The FEC also maintains that the loan-repayment limit
    prevents the circumvention of base contribution limits because
    without the limit a candidate could keep outstanding loans
    from past campaigns, which would allow individuals to stack
    up maximum contributions for each election for which the
    candidate had open loans. The problem with the FEC’s
    position, however, is that contributors are permitted to make
    multiple contributions at a single time—they can contribute to
    24
    retire debt from a previous election (subject to the loan-
    repayment limit) and they can contribute to any ongoing
    campaign for a future election. Each of these separate per-
    election contributions, however, is limited by the base
    contribution limit. Nothing about the potential for stacking
    circumvents the base limits. What the FEC terms
    “circumvention” is in fact a lawful contribution under existing
    campaign finance laws.
    The government suggests it is dissatisfied with the
    possibility of large one-time contributions, which the FEC
    treats as a kind of legal loophole. Yet the loan-repayment limit
    does little to close the ostensible loophole, because the limit
    applies only to a candidate’s personal loans, not to other
    campaign debt. Also, the FEC fails to identify a plausible
    financial incentive for a candidate to carry significant personal
    campaign debt over many years simply to keep open the
    possibility of soliciting larger stacked donations in the future.
    In sum, the FEC’s position amounts to speculation that
    contributions to pay off a candidate’s personal loans carry a
    danger of quid pro quo corruption, but the Supreme Court has
    “never accepted mere conjecture as adequate to carry a First
    Amendment burden.” Shrink Mo., 
    528 U.S. at 392
    . The
    government has failed to demonstrate that its interest in the
    loan-repayment limit is sufficiently important, because the
    limit serves no additional purpose in preventing quid pro quo
    corruption or the circumvention of base contribution limits.
    With little connection to any actual or perceived quid pro quo
    corruption interest, the FEC’s asserted rationale boils down to
    a general concern about money in politics and campaign
    contributions to incumbents—but such general concerns about
    influence or access cannot justify government regulation in the
    vital area of political speech.
    25
    2.
    Even if the government had shown that the limit was
    justified by an important government interest, the loan-
    repayment limit is not “closely drawn” to protect expressive
    and associational freedoms. McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 218
    (quoting Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 25
    ). “In the First Amendment
    context, fit matters.” 
    Id.
     The government’s rationale for the
    loan-repayment limit fits about as well as a pair of pandemic
    sweatpants. The First Amendment requires a better fit than that.
    When assessing fit even under standards short of strict
    scrutiny, we “require a fit that is not necessarily perfect, but
    reasonable; that represents not necessarily the single best
    disposition but one whose scope is in proportion to the interest
    served, that employs not necessarily the least restrictive means
    but a means narrowly tailored to achieve the desired objective.”
    
    Id.
     (cleaned up). As part of the inquiry we consider “whether
    experience under the present law confirms a serious threat of
    abuse,” and whether there are less burdensome alternatives
    available to the government in securing its interests. Id. at 219
    (quoting FEC v. Colo. Repub. Fed. Campaign Comm., 
    533 U.S. 431
    , 457 (2001)).
    In arguing for a close fit, the FEC maintains “[t]he Loan
    Repayment Limit is tailored to apply in situations when the
    strength of the government’s important anti-corruption
    interests are at their peak,” because “the candidate will be in a
    position to grant political favors to [post-election]
    contributors.” FEC Mot. 40. Moreover, the FEC asserts, the
    limit is well tailored because it applies only to situations in
    which “the candidate or officeholder is directly, personally
    benefiting from the contributions,” and it does not prevent
    26
    campaigns from repaying the loans in full with pre-election
    funds. Id. at 41.
    Contrary to the government’s assertions, the loan-
    repayment limit is not sufficiently tailored to achieve the
    objective of preventing quid pro quo corruption or its
    appearance. To begin with, the loan-repayment limit is over
    inclusive. It applies across the board to winning and losing
    candidates, although any purported anticorruption rationale
    applies only to winning candidates. The FEC’s primary
    defense of the regulation is that post-election contributions
    used to retire a candidate’s personal campaign loans are
    particularly susceptible to quid pro quo corruption or its
    appearance. This justification, however, does not apply to
    candidates who lose an election and therefore have no way to
    provide improper benefits to contributors who donate to retire
    election debt. Losing candidates are less likely to receive post-
    election contributions and, in any event, contributions made to
    a losing candidate pose essentially no risk of corruption or its
    appearance. See Anderson, 
    356 F.3d at 673
     (invalidating a state
    cap on candidate loans and explaining that “the risk of quid pro
    quo is virtually non-existent where the contribution is made to
    a losing candidate who seeks to recoup some of his debt”).
    When a campaign finance regulation sweeps in conduct well
    beyond the government’s asserted rationale, it does not provide
    the close fit required by the First Amendment.
    The loan-repayment limit is also substantially
    underinclusive as to the government’s asserted interests.
    Although “the First Amendment imposes no freestanding
    underinclusiveness limitation,” a law’s underinclusiveness can
    indicate a poor fit and can raise doubts about whether the law
    advances the interests invoked by the government. Williams-
    Yulee v. Fla. Bar, 
    135 S. Ct. 1656
    , 1668 (2015) (cleaned up).
    27
    Here, aside from the loan-repayment and base contribution
    limits, there are no restrictions on post-election contributions
    made to retire other types of campaign debt. A person may
    contribute to retire any outstanding campaign debt, with the
    exception of a candidate’s personal loans over $250,000. The
    FEC argues that a candidate who makes a loan to his campaign
    that he expects will be repaid is more dependent on outside
    contributions than a candidate who simply gives the money to
    his campaign. Yet not all candidates can afford to just give
    money to their campaigns—and there is nothing inherently
    corrupting about receiving campaign contributions after an
    election.
    The FEC’s concerns regarding post-election contributions
    to retire candidate loans seem to apply equally to any
    contribution made to an incumbent, because all incumbents are
    in a position to grant favors. But Congress does not restrict pre-
    election contributions to incumbents except through the base
    contribution limit. The government has advanced no reason
    why a contribution made to an incumbent before the election
    poses no risk of corruption, but the same contribution made
    after the election to a winning candidate (now incumbent) and
    applied to pre-election debt poses a unique and heightened
    concern of quid pro quo corruption.
    The government’s fit rationale also cannot explain why
    post-election contributions to retire pre-election debt are
    permissible up to the $250,000 cap. This cap means that in the
    current election cycle, a campaign committee can accept just
    over eighty-six maximum contributions after the election to
    repay a candidate loan (eighty-six contributions of $2,900
    aggregates to $249,400, just shy of the $250,000 ceiling). It is
    hardly clear why the eighty-seventh or eighty-eighth
    contributor poses a particular danger of quid pro corruption. Cf.
    28
    McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 210. Instead, the $250,000 cap
    operates to limit or disincentivize the total amount of campaign
    expenditure a candidate makes through personal loans.
    The loan-repayment limit also imposes an additional
    regulatory requirement on top of the existing base limits. The
    loan-repayment limit is exactly the sort of “prophylaxis-upon-
    prophylaxis approach” that demands “we be particularly
    diligent in scrutinizing the law’s fit.” Id. at 221 (cleaned up).
    As the D.C. Circuit has explained, “an additional constraint
    layered on top of the base limits … separately need[s] to serve
    the interest in preventing the appearance or actuality of
    corruption.” 10 Holmes v. FEC, 
    875 F.3d 1153
    , 1161 (D.C. Cir.
    2017) (en banc) (cleaned up). Post-election contributions, like
    contributions made before an election, are subject to the base
    limits, which serve to prevent the dangers of quid pro quo
    corruption. Layered on top of the base limits, the loan-
    repayment limit places an additional restriction on pre-election
    expenditures and post-election contributions, but the
    government has failed to demonstrate that the limit provides
    additional protection against quid pro quo corruption or its
    appearance.
    10
    Other circuit courts have similarly interpreted McCutcheon as
    requiring the government to make an additional showing to justify
    campaign finance restrictions that operate on top of base limits. See,
    e.g., Jones v. Jegley, 
    947 F.3d 1100
    , 1106 (8th Cir. 2020) (“Just as
    in McCutcheon, Arkansas’s failure here to provide any evidence that
    its blackout period accomplishes anything more than the $2,700 base
    limits alone means that it cannot survive exacting scrutiny.”);
    Zimmerman v. City of Austin, 
    881 F.3d 378
    , 392 (5th Cir. 2018)
    (holding restrictions in addition to the base limit “must be justified
    by evidence that the additional limit serves a distinct interest in
    preventing corruption that is not already served by the base limit”).
    29
    The Commission next tries to demonstrate fit by
    minimizing the burden of the loan-repayment limit. For
    instance, the Commission maintains that the loan-repayment
    limit “increase[s] the funds available to campaign
    committees,” and so does not “prevent[] campaigns from
    ‘amassing the resources necessary for effective advocacy.’”
    FEC Mot. 41 (quoting Randall v. Sorrell, 
    548 U.S. 230
    , 247
    (2006) (plurality opinion)). The FEC overreads Randall, which
    noted that if a contribution limit prevents a campaign from
    amassing the necessary resources, it cannot survive under the
    First Amendment. See Randall, 
    548 U.S. at 248
    . It does not
    logically follow, however, that if a campaign can manage to
    amass necessary resources, the regulation survives First
    Amendment scrutiny. Preventing candidates from amassing
    resources is only one of the reasons a regulation of political
    speech may fail under the First Amendment, and therefore it
    cannot serve as an independent basis for upholding a
    regulation. Cf. Libertarian Nat’l Comm. v. FEC, 
    924 F.3d 533
    ,
    558–59 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (en banc) (Katsas, J., concurring in
    part, concurring in the judgment, and dissenting in part).
    Moreover, the determination of what resources are “necessary”
    for effective speech must be left to individual speakers, not the
    FEC.
    Finally, the Commission urges this court to defer to
    Congress’s judgment that the loan-repayment limit is
    necessary for combatting corruption. While we must respect
    the legislative choices of Congress acting within its
    constitutional sphere, we cannot defer on the question of
    whether a particular legislative choice is in fact constitutional.
    “We must give weight to attempts by Congress to seek to dispel
    either the appearance or the reality of [corruptive] influences.
    The remedies enacted by law, however, must comply with the
    First Amendment; and it is our law and our tradition that more
    30
    speech, not less, is the governing rule.” Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 361
    ; see also Schneider v. State, 
    308 U.S. 147
    , 161
    (1939) (explaining that legislative judgments may be
    “insufficient to justify” a restriction that “diminishes the
    exercise of rights so vital to the maintenance of democratic
    institutions”). Courts cannot rubber stamp congressional
    preferences when important First Amendment interests are at
    stake.
    In sum, we hold that the government failed to meet its
    burden of demonstrating that the loan-repayment limit serves
    an interest in combatting quid pro quo corruption or its
    appearance and that in any event the loan-repayment limit is
    insufficiently tailored to meet this objective.
    ***
    When it comes to campaign finance regulation, the foxes
    are effectively in charge of the political henhouse, because
    elected officials set the rules for future elections. The
    Constitution, however, does not leave our liberties to the foxes.
    Laws regulating political speech implicate First Amendment
    rights essential to a free democracy, and courts have an
    independent duty to scrutinize the government’s interest as
    well as the means chosen to realize it. To protect “the political
    responsiveness at the heart of the democratic process,”
    McCutcheon, 572 U.S. at 227, Congress may regulate political
    speech only to prevent the specific problem of quid pro quo
    corruption. The loan-repayment limit does not serve that
    interest, and the government’s arguments to the contrary boil
    down to hypothetical concerns about influence and access to
    incumbents. Such justifications are not sufficient under the
    First Amendment to uphold a statute that burdens political
    speech. The loan-repayment limit intrudes on fundamental
    31
    rights of speech and association without serving a substantial
    government interest.
    For the foregoing reasons, we hold that the loan-
    repayment limit, Section 304 of BCRA, is unconstitutional
    because it violates the First Amendment. Thus, the court denies
    the Commission’s motion for summary judgment and grants
    the Cruz campaign’s motion for summary judgment. A
    separate order accompanies this memorandum opinion.