Gresham v. Azar ( 2019 )


Menu:
  •                            UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
    CHARLES GRESHAM, et al.,
    Plaintiffs,
    v.                                        Civil Action No. 18-1900 (JEB)
    ALEX M. AZAR II, et al.,
    Defendants.
    MEMORANDUM OPINION
    Adrian McGonigal is 40 years old and lives with his brother in Pea Ridge, Arkansas. He
    used to have a job working in the shipping department of Southwest Poultry, a food-service
    company located nearby, although he received no medical insurance through his employer. Like
    many Americans, he has several serious medical conditions. Beginning in 2014, McGonigal was
    able to receive medical care — including regular doctor visits and numerous prescription drugs
    — through the state’s expanded Medicaid program. In mid-2018, however, McGonigal learned
    that he would be subject to new work requirements, which he would have to report online, as a
    condition of receiving health benefits. These were imposed by the Arkansas Works
    Amendments (AWA), approved by the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services in March
    2018. Despite his lack of access to, and difficulty working with, computers, he was able to
    report his employment in June 2018, but he did not know he needed to continue to do so each
    month. As a result, when he went to pick up his prescriptions in October, the pharmacist told
    him that he was no longer covered, and his medicines would cost him $800. In the absence of
    Medicaid, he could not afford the cost of the prescriptions and so did not pick them up. His
    1
    health conditions then flared up, causing him to miss several days of work, and Southwest
    Poultry fired him for his absences. He thus lost his Medicaid coverage and his job.
    Anna Book is 38 years old and lives in Little Rock. She currently rents a room in an
    apartment but was homeless for most of the last eight years. In July 2018, she got a job as a
    dishwasher in a restaurant, for which she works about 24 hours each week. Before that, she was
    unemployed for two years. She nevertheless also had health care provided through Arkansas’s
    Medicaid program, which a local pastor helped her sign up for in 2014. Book learned last
    August that, pursuant to AWA, she would have to report 80 hours each month of employment or
    other activities to keep that coverage. While she reported her compliance in August and
    September with the pastor’s help — she does not have reliable internet access — Book has
    several health conditions and worries that she will not maintain sufficient hours at her job to keep
    her coverage.
    Russell Cook is 26 and also lives in Little Rock. He is currently homeless. While he has
    spent time working as a landscaper, he is not presently employed and has minimal job prospects.
    The state’s Medicaid program has previously given him access to health care for various health
    conditions, including a torn Achilles tendon and serious dental problems. Cook, however, does
    not believe he will be able to comply with the new AWA work requirements, which began
    applying to him in January 2019. Lacking access to the internet or a phone, he also worries that
    he will be unable to report compliance with those requirements. He thus expects to lose his
    Medicaid coverage.
    These are three of the ten Arkansans who come to this Court seeking to undo the work
    requirements the state added in 2018 to its Medicaid program. They sued the Secretary of Health
    2
    and Human Services in August 2018, arguing that the federal government’s approval of the
    state’s new requirements violated the Administrative Procedure Act and the Constitution.
    Plaintiffs’ suit does not offer an issue of first impression. Indeed, this Court just last
    summer considered a challenge to the Secretary’s approval of very similar changes to
    Kentucky’s Medicaid program — including work or “community engagement” requirements —
    in Stewart v. Azar, 
    313 F. Supp. 3d 237
    (D.D.C. 2018) (Stewart I). There, it vacated the
    agency’s decision because it had not adequately considered whether the program “would in fact
    help the state furnish medical assistance to its citizens, a central objective of Medicaid.” 
    Id. at 243.
    Plaintiffs point to the identical deficiency in the record in this case. Despite the
    protestations in its (and intervenor Arkansas’s) briefing, HHS conceded at oral argument that the
    administrative decision in this case shares the same problem as the one in Stewart I. See Oral
    Argument Transcript at 6–7. The Court’s job is thus easy in one respect: the Secretary’s
    approval cannot stand.
    Yet a separate question remains: what is the proper remedy? In Stewart I, the Court
    vacated the approval and remanded to the Secretary. Here, however, the Government argues that
    vacatur is improper both because, unlike Kentucky, AWA is already active and halting it would
    be quite disruptive, and because any error is easily fixed, just as it has been for Kentucky. The
    challengers disagree, positing that the deficiency in the approval is substantial and that any
    resulting disruption is outweighed by the ongoing harms suffered by the more than 16,000
    Arkansans who have lost their Medicaid coverage. Given the seriousness of the deficiencies —
    which, as this Court explains in a separate Opinion issued today, the remand in Kentucky did not
    cure — and the absence of lasting harms to the Government relative to the significant ones
    3
    suffered by Arkansans like Plaintiffs, the Court will vacate the Secretary’s approval and remand
    for further proceedings.
    I.     BACKGROUND
    As it did in Stewart I, the Court begins with an overview of the relevant history and
    provisions of the Medicaid Act. See 313 F. Supp 3d. at 243–44. It then turns to Arkansas’s
    challenged plan before concluding with the procedural history of this case.
    Legal Background
    1. The Medicaid Act
    Since 1965, the federal government and the states have worked together to provide
    medical assistance to certain vulnerable populations under Title XIX of the Social Security Act,
    commonly known as Medicaid. See 42 U.S.C. § 1396-1. The Centers for Medicare and
    Medicaid Services (CMS), a federal agency within the Department of Health and Human
    Services, has primary responsibility for overseeing Medicaid programs. Under the cooperative
    federal-state arrangement, participating states submit their “plans for medical assistance” to the
    Secretary of HHS. 
    Id. To receive
    federal funding, those plans — along with any material
    changes to them — must be “approved by the Secretary.” Id.; see also 42 C.F.R. § 430.12(c).
    Currently, all states have chosen to participate in the program.
    To be approved, state plans must comply with certain minimum parameters set out in the
    Medicaid Act. See 42 U.S.C. § 1396a (listing 83 separate requirements). One such provision
    requires state plans to “mak[e] medical assistance available” to certain low-income individuals.
    
    Id. § 1396a(a)(10)(A).
    Until recently, that group included pregnant women, children, and their
    families; some foster children; the elderly; and people with certain disabilities. 
    Id. In 2010,
    however, Congress enacted the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), colloquially
    4
    known as Obamacare, “to increase the number of Americans covered by health insurance.” Nat’l
    Fed. of Indep. Business v. Sebelius, 
    567 U.S. 519
    , 538 (2012). Under that statute, states can
    expand their Medicaid coverage to include additional low-income adults under 65 who would
    not otherwise qualify. See 42 U.S.C. § 1396a(a)(10)(A)(i)(VIII).
    Generally, a state must cover all qualified individuals or forfeit its federal Medicaid
    funding. 
    Id. § 1396a(a)(10)(B).
    That was originally so for the ACA expansion population as
    well. See 42 U.S.C. § 1396c. In NFIB, however, the Supreme Court held that Congress could
    not, consistent with the Spending Clause of the Constitution, condition previously appropriated
    Medicaid funds on the state’s agreeing to the expansion. 
    See 567 U.S. at 584
    –85. The result
    was that states could choose not to cover the new population and lose no more than the funds that
    would have been appropriated for that group. 
    Id. at 587.
    If, however, the state decided to
    provide coverage, those individuals would become part of its mandatory population. 
    Id. at 585–
    87 (explaining that Congress may “offer[] funds under the Affordable Care Act to expand the
    availability of health care, and requir[e] that States accepting such funds comply with the
    conditions on their use”). In that instance, the state must afford the expansion group “full
    benefits” — i.e., it must provide “medical assistance for all services covered under the State
    plan” that are substantially equivalent “in amount, duration, or scope . . . to the medical
    assistance available for [other] individual[s]” covered under the Act. See 42 U.S.C.
    § 1396d(y)(2)(B); 42 C.F.R. § 433.204(a)(2).
    The Medicaid Act, in addition to defining who is entitled to coverage, also ensures what
    coverage those enrolled individuals receive. Under § 1396a, states must cover certain basic
    medical services, see 42 U.S.C. §§ 1396a(a)(10)(A), 1396d(a), and the statute limits the amount
    and type of premiums, deductions, or other cost-sharing charges that a state can impose on such
    5
    care. 
    Id. § 1396a(a)(14);
    see also 
    id. § 1396o.
    Other provisions require states to provide three
    months of retroactive coverage once a beneficiary enrolls, see 
    id. § 1396a(a)(34),
    and to ensure
    that recipients receive all “necessary transportation . . . to and from providers.” 42 C.F.R.
    § 431.53. Finally, states must “provide such safeguards as may be necessary to assure” that
    eligibility and services “will be provided, in a manner consistent with simplicity of
    administration and the best interests of the recipients.” 42 U.S.C. § 1396a(a)(19).
    2. Section 1115 of Social Security Act
    Both before and after the passage of the ACA, a state is not entirely locked in; instead, if
    it wishes to deviate from the Medicaid Act’s requirements, it can seek a waiver from the
    Secretary of HHS. See 42 U.S.C. § 1315. In enacting the Social Security Act (and, later, the
    Medicaid program within the same title), Congress recognized that statutory requirements “often
    stand in the way of experimental projects designed to test out new ideas and ways of dealing
    with the problems of public welfare recipients.” S. Rep. No. 1589, 87th Cong., 2d Sess. 19,
    reprinted in 1962 U.S.C.C.A.N. 1943, 1961–62. To that end, § 1115 of the Social Security Act
    allows the Secretary to approve “experimental, pilot, or demonstration project[s]” in state
    medical plans that would otherwise fall outside Medicaid’s parameters. The Secretary can
    approve only those projects that “in [his] judgment . . . [are] likely to assist in promoting the
    [Act’s] objectives.” 42 U.S.C. § 1315(a). As conceived, demonstration projects were “expected
    to be selectively approved by the Department and to be those which are designed to improve the
    techniques of administering assistance.” Supra S. Rep. No. 1589 at 1962. Once the Secretary
    has greenlighted such a project, he can then waive compliance with the requirements of § 1396a
    “to the extent and for the period . . . necessary to enable [the] State . . . to carry out such project.”
    
    Id. § 1315(a)(1).
    6
    While the ultimate decision whether to grant § 1115 approval rests with the Secretary, his
    discretion is not boundless. Before HHS can act on a waiver application, the state “must provide
    at least a 30-day public notice[-]and[-]comment period” regarding the proposed program and
    hold at least two hearings at least 20 days before submitting the application. See 42 C.F.R.
    §§ 431.408(a)(1), (3). Once a state completes those prerequisites, it then sends an application to
    CMS. 
    Id. § 431.412
    (listing application requirements). After the agency notifies the state that it
    has received the waiver application, a federal 30-day public-notice period commences, and the
    agency must wait at least 45 days before rendering a final decision. 
    Id. §§ 431.416(b),
    (e)(1).
    Factual Background
    1. Arkansas Works Amendments
    Arkansas’s Medicaid program dates back to 1970. For most of the program’s history, the
    state maintained among the most stringent eligibility thresholds in the nation for adults, covering
    only the aged, disabled, and parents with very low incomes. See ECF 53-6, Exh. 54 (Ark. Health
    Care Independence Program Interim Report) at 16. That changed with the passage of the ACA.
    While states had a choice after NFIB not to expand Medicaid, Arkansas was one of those that
    opted to do so. Under its expansion program, which began January 1, 2014, Medicaid-eligible
    persons were given the opportunity to enroll in private insurance plans financed by the state. See
    AR 71. In its first two years, the program provided health coverage to more than 278,000 newly
    eligible individuals, helping to lower the uninsured rate from 19% to 11%. See AR 1274. The
    program became known as Arkansas Works in January 2017.
    That month featured another significant change in the political landscape, as the Trump
    administration took over from President Obama. In March 2017, then-Secretary Thomas Price
    and CMS Director Seema Verma sent a letter to all 50 governors announcing the
    7
    administration’s view that the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid was “a clear departure from the
    core, historical mission of the program.” See AR 85. They thus alerted states of the agency’s
    “intent to use existing Section 1115 demonstration authority” to help revamp Medicaid. See AR
    86. Together they promised to find “a solution that best uses taxpayer dollars to serve” those
    individuals they deemed “truly vulnerable.” 
    Id. Heeding HHS’s
    call, Governor Asa Hutchinson
    proposed three substantial amendments to Arkansas Works under Section 1115. See AR 2057.
    First, he proposed to shift income eligibility for the expansion population from 133% to 100% of
    the Federal Poverty Line. 
    Id. Second, he
    proposed to “institute work requirements as a
    condition” of continued Medicaid coverage. 
    Id. Third, he
    proposed to eliminate retroactive
    health coverage. 
    Id. The state
    did not estimate the effects these amendments would have on
    Medicaid coverage. CMS held a public-comment period from July 11 to August 10, 2017, and
    numerous organizations offered their views and analysis of the changes.
    On March 5, 2018, the Secretary approved the work requirements and limits to
    retroactive coverage, concluding that they were “likely to assist in improving health outcomes”
    and “incentivize beneficiaries to engage in their own health care.” AR 2–4. Under the new work
    requirements, most able-bodied adults in the Medicaid expansion population ages 19 to 49 must
    complete each month 80 hours of employment or other qualifying activities — or earn income
    equivalent to 80 hours of work. 
    Id. Compliance was
    required to be reported monthly through an
    online portal. See AR 29. Various groups of persons are exempt, including the medically frail,
    pregnant women, full-time students, and persons in drug- or alcohol-treatment programs. See
    AR 28. Nonexempt individuals who do not report sufficient qualifying hours for any three
    months in a plan year are disenrolled from Medicaid for the remainder of that year and not
    permitted to re-enroll until the following plan year. See AR 14, 30–31. The work requirements
    8
    took effect for persons age 30 to 49 on June 1, 2018, and for persons age 20 to 29 on January 1,
    2019. See ECF No. 26-3 (Arkansas Works Eligibility and Enrollment Monitoring Plan) at 7–8.
    As to retroactive coverage, the Secretary approved a reduction from the three months required by
    the Act to one month; the more drastic proposal of eliminating such coverage entirely was
    abandoned, as was the Governor’s request to reduce eligibility down to 100% of the FPL. See
    AR 12, 22.
    According to Arkansas’s Department of Human Services, only a small percentage of the
    persons required to report compliance with the work requirements actually did so during the first
    six months of the program. In October, for example, only 12.3% (1687 out of 13653) of persons
    not exempt from the requirements reported any kind of qualifying activity. See ECF No. 42-1
    (Arkansas Works Reports June–November 2018) at 47, 52. Since the program began, more than
    16,900 individuals have lost Medicaid coverage for some period of time for not reporting their
    compliance. 
    Id. at 18,
    27, 36, 45. It is not known what percentage of these individuals
    completed the work requirements but did not report versus those who did not engage in the work
    itself.
    2. Kentucky HEALTH
    Arkansas was not the only state interested in the new administration’s proposal to rethink
    the Medicaid Expansion. The Commonwealth of Kentucky proposed a demonstration project 
    called Kentucky HEALTH — with similar community-engagement requirements and cutbacks to
    retroactive coverage. (It also contained other elements not relevant here.) Kentucky, unlike
    Arkansas, did estimate the coverage effects of its project, explaining that thousands of persons
    would lose their Medicaid benefits over the course of the project; indeed, their estimate
    corresponded to about 95,000 persons losing Medicaid for one full year. As it did in Arkansas,
    9
    the Secretary approved that project on the ground that it was likely to “improv[e] health
    outcomes” and “increas[e] individual engagement in health care decisions.” Stewart I, 313 F.
    Supp. 3d at 258 (quoting AR 7).
    Before the project took effect, several Medicaid recipients challenged the Secretary’s
    approval in this Court. They argued, among other things, that the agency had failed to
    adequately explain why Kentucky HEALTH promoted the objectives of Medicaid and that
    approval of the project exceeded HHS’s statutory authority. The Court concluded that the
    plaintiffs were right in one central and dispositive respect: “[T]he Secretary never adequately
    considered whether Kentucky HEALTH would in fact help the state furnish medical assistance
    to its citizens, a central objective of Medicaid.” 
    Id. at 243.
    It therefore vacated the Secretary’s
    approval and remanded the matter to the agency for further consideration. 
    Id. at 273.
    HHS has since reopened the comment period and subsequently reapproved Kentucky’s
    project, offering additional explanation for why the project advances the objectives of the
    Medicaid Act. The parties have now come back to the Court and filed cross-motions for
    summary judgment in that case. The Court issues a separate Opinion today resolving those
    motions, which it will refer to as Stewart II.
    Procedural History
    Several Arkansas residents filed this lawsuit in August 2018. They assert that the
    Secretary’s approval of the Arkansas Works Amendments was arbitrary and capricious, in excess
    of his statutory authority, and in violation of the Take Care Clause of the Constitution. Because
    it was designated as related to Stewart I, see ECF No. 2, the case was directed to this Court.
    While Defendants objected to the related-case designation, see ECF No. 17, the Court
    determined that the cases’ common legal and factual issues militated in favor of its retaining the
    10
    matter. See Minute Order of Sept. 12, 2018. The State of Arkansas has since intervened as a
    Defendant, and numerous amici have also joined the fray. Dueling Cross-Motions for Summary
    Judgment are now ripe.
    II.    LEGAL STANDARD
    The parties have cross-moved for summary judgment on the administrative record. The
    summary-judgment standard set forth in Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 56(c), therefore, “does
    not apply because of the limited role of a court in reviewing the administrative record.” Sierra
    Club v. Mainella, 
    459 F. Supp. 2d 76
    , 89 (D.D.C. 2006); see also Bloch v. Powell, 
    227 F. Supp. 2d
    25, 30 (D.D.C. 2002), aff’d, 
    348 F.3d 1060
    (D.C. Cir. 2003). “[T]he function of the district
    court is to determine whether or not as a matter of law the evidence in the administrative record
    permitted the agency to make the decision it did.” Sierra Club, 
    459 F. Supp. 2d
    . at 90 (quotation
    marks and citation omitted). “Summary judgment is the proper mechanism for deciding, as a
    matter of law, whether an agency action is supported by the administrative record and consistent
    with the [Administrative Procedure Act] standard of review.” Loma Linda Univ. Med. Ctr. v.
    Sebelius, 
    684 F. Supp. 2d 42
    , 52 (D.D.C. 2010) (citation omitted).
    The Administrative Procedure Act “sets forth the full extent of judicial authority to
    review executive agency action for procedural correctness.” FCC v. Fox Television Stations,
    Inc., 
    556 U.S. 502
    , 513 (2009). It requires courts to “hold unlawful and set aside agency action,
    findings, and conclusions” that are “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not
    in accordance with law.” 5 U.S.C. § 706(2). Agency action is arbitrary and capricious if, for
    example, the agency “entirely failed to consider an important aspect of the problem, offered an
    explanation for its decision that runs counter to the evidence before the agency, or is so
    implausible that it could not be ascribed to a difference in view or the product of agency
    11
    expertise.” Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n of U.S., Inc. v. State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983).
    In other words, an agency is required to “examine the relevant data and articulate a
    satisfactory explanation for its action including a rational connection between the facts found and
    the choice made.” 
    Id. at 43
    (quoting Burlington Truck Lines v. United States, 
    371 U.S. 156
    , 168
    (1962)) (internal quotation marks omitted). Courts, accordingly, “do not defer to the agency’s
    conclusory or unsupported suppositions,” United Techs. Corp. v. Dep’t of Def., 
    601 F.3d 557
    ,
    562 (D.C. Cir. 2010) (quoting McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Dep’t of the Air Force, 
    375 F.3d 1182
    , 1187 (D.C. Cir. 2004)), and “agency ‘litigating positions’ are not entitled to deference
    when they are merely [agency] counsel’s ‘post hoc rationalizations’ for agency action, advanced
    for the first time in the reviewing court.” Martin v. Occupational Safety & Health Review
    Comm’n, 
    499 U.S. 144
    , 156 (1991) (citation omitted). Although a reviewing court “may not
    supply a reasoned basis for the agency’s action that the agency itself has not given,” a decision
    that is not fully explained may, nevertheless, be upheld “if the agency’s path may reasonably be
    discerned.” Bowman Transp., Inc. v. Arkansas-Best Freight System, Inc., 
    419 U.S. 281
    , 285-86
    (1974) (citation omitted).
    III.   ANALYSIS
    The Court, as it must, first addresses whether there is subject-matter jurisdiction before
    proceeding to the merits of Plaintiffs’ challenges.
    Jurisdiction
    Unlike in Stewart I, Defendants do not contest Plaintiffs’ standing to challenge the
    Secretary’s approval of the Arkansas Works Amendments as a whole. The Court, nevertheless,
    has an independent duty to assure that it has subject-matter jurisdiction in this case. See Kaplan
    12
    v. Cent. Bank of Islamic Repub. of Iran, 
    896 F.3d 501
    , 509 (D.C. Cir. 2018). To establish
    standing under Article III, Plaintiffs must show that they have suffered a concrete injury that is
    fairly traceable to the challenged conduct and that is likely to be redressed by a favorable judicial
    decision. See Lujan v. Defs. of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 590 (1992). On review, the Court easily
    concludes that at least one Plaintiff has established all three elements. Consider, for example,
    Adrian McGonigal, whom we encountered in this Opinion’s opening paragraph. He attests that
    he has lost his Medicaid coverage as a result of the community-engagement requirement and has
    thus been unable to pay for certain medical bills and prescription drugs. See ECF No. 27-3
    (McGonigal Declaration). Or look to Russell Cook, also mentioned in the introduction, who
    avers that he will be unable to meet the community-engagement requirement once it applies to
    him and thus believes that loss of his health-care coverage is imminent. See ECF No. 27-7
    (Cook Declaration). From these declarations and others submitted with Plaintiffs’ Motion, there
    is little doubt that at least one Plaintiff has suffered an injury (or will suffer an injury in the
    future) — the loss of Medicaid coverage — that is attributable to the Secretary’s approval of
    AWA, and that a favorable decision from the Court would redress it. See NB ex rel. Peacock v.
    District of Columbia, 
    682 F.3d 77
    , 82–83 (D.C. Cir. 2012).
    While standing is thus easily established for their claim challenging the project as a
    whole, the state of Arkansas attacks Plaintiffs’ standing to make one of their arguments. It
    specifically says that no Plaintiff may challenge Arkansas Works’ online-only reporting
    requirements because the state changed its policy before this suit so as to allow reporting by
    phone or in person. See ECF No. 39 (Arkansas MSJ) at 34. There is no need for the Court to
    weigh in here. Because it resolves this case based on the challenge to the Arkansas Works
    13
    Amendments writ large, the Court declines to decide whether certain Plaintiffs have standing to
    challenge this particular part of the project.
    Merits
    With that threshold issue easily dispatched, the Court turns to the merits. Plaintiffs’
    central position is identical to that of the challengers in Stewart I: the Arkansas Works
    Amendments “fundamentally alter the design and purpose of Medicaid.” ECF No. 27 (MSJ) at
    13. They thus assail the Secretary’s approval of the Amendments on similar fronts. First, with
    regard to the project as a whole, Plaintiffs assert that HHS did not sufficiently consider whether
    it would promote the objectives of Medicaid, including how it would affect the provision of
    medical assistance to the needy. Second, they maintain that the Secretary lacked statutory
    authority to approve numerous aspects of AWA. Finally, Plaintiffs posit that a letter CMS issued
    in January 2018 violates the APA because it did not go through notice and comment. As in
    Stewart I, the Court only needs to consider the first of these contentions: “whether the Secretary
    acted arbitrarily or capriciously in concluding that [Arkansas Works] was ‘likely to assist in
    promoting the objectives’ of the Medicaid Act.” Stewart 
    I, 313 F. Supp. 3d at 259
    (quoting 42
    U.S.C. § 1315(a)).
    Under that deferential standard, the Court “is not empowered to substitute its judgment
    for that of the agency.” Citizens to Preserve Overton Park, Inc. v. Volpe, 
    401 U.S. 402
    , 416
    (1971). Nor can it “presume even to comment upon the wisdom of [Arkansas’s] effort at
    [Medicaid] reform.” C.K. v. N.J. Dep’t of Health & Human Servs., 
    92 F.3d 171
    , 181 (3d Cir.
    1996). Still, it is a fundamental principle of administrative law that “agencies are required to
    engage in reasoned decisionmaking.” Michigan v. EPA, 
    135 S. Ct. 2699
    , 2706 (2015) (internal
    quotation marks omitted). This means that an agency must “examine all relevant factors and
    14
    record evidence.” Am. Wild Horse Pres. Campaign v. Perdue, 
    873 F.3d 914
    , 923 (D.C. Cir.
    2017). At minimum, the Secretary cannot “entirely fail[] to consider an important aspect of the
    problem.” Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n v. State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43
    (1983). Rather, he must “adequately analyze . . . the consequences” of his actions. See Am.
    Wild 
    Horse, 873 F.3d at 932
    . In doing so, “[s]tating that a factor was considered . . . is not a
    substitute for considering it.” Getty v. Fed. Savs. & Loan Ins. Corp., 
    805 F.2d 1050
    , 1055 (D.C.
    Cir. 1986). The agency must instead provide more than “conclusory statements” to prove it
    “consider[ed] [the relevant] priorities.” 
    Id. at 1057.
    With that framework in mind, Plaintiffs’ position is simple: “The purpose of [] Medicaid”
    is to enable states “to furnish health care coverage to people who cannot otherwise afford it.”
    MSJ at 1, 15. Yet the Secretary, just as in Stewart I, “failed to consider adequately” the impact
    of the proposed project on Medicaid coverage. See Am. Wild 
    Horse, 873 F.3d at 923
    . Indeed,
    he neither offered his own estimates of coverage loss nor grappled with comments in the
    administrative record projecting that the Amendments would lead a substantial number of
    Arkansas residents to be disenrolled from Medicaid. Those omissions, they urge, make his
    decision arbitrary and capricious.
    Plaintiffs are correct. As Opening Day arrives, the Court finds its guiding principle in
    Yogi Berra’s aphorism, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” In other words, as the Secretary’s failures
    here are nearly identical to those in Stewart I, the Court’s analysis proceeds in the same fashion.
    It begins with the basic deficiencies in the Secretary’s approval in this case and then examines
    Defendants’ counterarguments.
    15
    1. The Secretary’s Consideration of Medicaid’s Objectives
    Before approving a demonstration or pilot project, the Secretary must identify the
    objectives of Medicaid and explain why the project is likely to promote them. As it did in
    Stewart I, the Court assumes that the Secretary’s identification of those objectives is entitled to
    Chevron deference. That is, in reviewing his interpretation, the Court must first ask whether
    “Congress has directly spoken to the precise question at issue,” and, if not, whether “the
    agency’s answer is based on a permissible construction of the statute.” Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v.
    Nat’l Res. Def. Council, Inc., 
    467 U.S. 837
    , 842–43 (1984). According such deference is not of
    much practical significance here, however, because the Secretary agrees with the Court’s
    understanding of a “core objective” of the Medicaid Act. See ECF No. 52 (HHS Reply) at 5.
    In Stewart I, the Court explained that “one of Medicaid’s central objectives” is to
    “furnish medical assistance” to persons who cannot afford it. 
    See 313 F. Supp. 3d at 243
    , 261,
    266, 273. That conclusion followed ineluctably from § 1396-1 of the Act, which provides that
    Congress appropriated Medicaid funds “[f]or the purpose of enabling each State, as far as
    practicable under the conditions in such State, to furnish (1) medical assistance . . . [to]
    individuals[] whose income and resources are insufficient to meet the costs of necessary medical
    services, and (2) rehabilitation and other services to help such families and individuals attain or
    retain capability for independence or self-care.” Case law discussing the program’s objectives
    confirms as much. See, e.g., Schweiker v. Hogan, 
    453 U.S. 569
    , 571 (1982) (explaining that
    Congress established Medicaid “for the purpose of providing federal financial assistance to
    States that choose to reimburse certain costs of medical treatment for needy persons”); W. Va.
    Univ. Hosps. Inc. v. Casey, 
    885 F.2d 11
    , 20 (3d Cir. 1989) (“[T]he primary purpose of
    16
    [M]edicaid is to achieve the praiseworthy social objective of granting health care coverage to
    those who cannot afford it.”).
    Defendants, as mentioned, agree that providing health coverage to the needy is a purpose
    of the Act. See ECF No. 37 (HHS MSJ) at 12; Ark. MSJ at 13. In Arkansas’s words, “[T]hat
    Medicaid coverage is a Medicaid objective is readily apparent from the substantive provisions of
    the statute.” Ark. MSJ at 13. The Secretary, in fact, refers to the provision of medical care to
    eligible persons as “Medicaid’s core objective.” HHS Reply at 5 (emphasis added). HHS
    nevertheless did not consider whether AWA would advance or impede that objective.
    In his approval letter, the Secretary explained that he considered the following objectives
    of the Medicaid Act: (1) “whether the demonstration as amended was likely to assist in
    improving health outcomes”; (2) “whether it would address behavioral and social factors that
    influence health outcomes”; and (3) “whether it would incentivize beneficiaries to engage in
    their own health care and achieve better health outcomes.” AR 4. Those are substantially the
    same objectives HHS considered when it first approved the Kentucky program. See Stewart 
    I, 313 F. Supp. 3d at 261
    –62. What the Court said in that case thus holds true here: “While those
    may be worthy goals, there [i]s a notable omission from the list” — namely, whether the project
    would “help or hurt [Arkansas] in ‘funding . . . medical services for the needy.’” 
    Id. (quoting Alexander
    v. Choate, 
    469 U.S. 287
    , 289 n.1 (1985)). By his own description, the Secretary
    “entirely failed to consider” this question. See State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    .
    The Government conceded as much at oral argument, stating that HHS’s Arkansas
    approval letter no more addresses the program’s effects on Medicaid coverage than the Kentucky
    approval letter before the Court in Stewart I. See Tr. at 6–7. Because this is a separate
    administrative decision on review in a separate case, however, a brief assessment of the
    17
    deficiency is instructive. To “adequately analyze” the issue of coverage, Am. Wild 
    Horse, 873 F.3d at 932
    , the Secretary needed to consider whether the demonstration project would be likely
    to cause recipients to lose coverage and whether it would cause others to gain coverage. He did
    neither.
    a. Risk to Coverage
    The Secretary’s approval letter did not consider whether AWA would reduce Medicaid
    coverage. Despite acknowledging at several points that commenters had predicted coverage loss,
    the agency did not engage with that possibility. For example, after mentioning that commenters
    had “expressed concerns that these requirements would . . . create barriers to coverage,” the
    Secretary responded that “[t]he state has pledged to do beneficiary outreach and education on
    how to comply” and has created an “easy” online reporting system. See AR 6. He also pointed
    to exemptions built into the project and to Arkansas’s assurances that it will allow for
    “reasonable modifications” for beneficiaries unable to meet the requirements. 
    Id. But those
    statements did not grapple with the coverage issue. Not only did they fail to address whether
    coverage loss would occur as predicted, but they also ignored that commenters had projected that
    such loss would happen regardless of the exemptions and the education and reporting processes;
    indeed, some comments pinpointed online-only reporting as a source of coverage loss. See, e.g.,
    AR 1272, 1287.
    Later, HHS noted again many commenters’ view that community-engagement
    requirements would “create barriers to coverage for non-exempt people who might have trouble
    accessing care.” AR 6. Instead of addressing that issue, however, it merely said: “We believe
    that the community engagement requirements create appropriate incentives for beneficiaries to
    gain employment.” 
    Id. That position
    says nothing about the risk of coverage loss those
    18
    requirements create. The bottom line: the Secretary did no more than acknowledge — in a
    conclusory manner, no less — that commenters forecast a loss in Medicaid coverage. But
    “[s]tating that a factor was considered . . . is not a substitute for considering it.” 
    Getty, 805 F.2d at 1055
    . His decision thus falls short of the kind of “reasoned decisionmaking” the APA
    requires. See 
    Michigan, 135 S. Ct. at 2706
    .
    Defendants argue that the Secretary did not need to  and perhaps was not even able to
     provide a numeric estimate of coverage loss. See HHS MSJ at 21; Ark. MSJ at 24. While
    producing an empirical prediction of coverage loss does not seem like too much to ask of the
    expert agency tasked with supervising Medicaid programs in all 50 states, the Court does not
    need to decide whether such an estimate is required. Here, numerous commenters predicted that
    substantial coverage loss would occur; a table cataloguing the relevant comments is included at
    the end of this Opinion in an Appendix. See, e.g., AR 1269 (Arkansas Advocates noting that
    requirement “will increase the rate of uninsured Arkansans”); AR 1277 (American Congress
    Obstetricians and Gynecologists explaining that “[t]he experience of the TANF program . . .
    demonstrates that imposing work requirements on Medicaid beneficiaries would . . . lead to the
    loss of health care coverage for substantial numbers of people who are unable to work or face
    major barriers to finding and retaining employment.”); see also ECF No. 33 (Amicus Brief of
    Deans, Chairs, and Scholars) at 14. Under these circumstances, the agency must grapple with
    the risk of coverage loss. See Nat’l Lifeline Assoc. v. FCC, 
    915 F.3d 19
    , 30-31 (D.C. Cir. 2019).
    The Secretary should explain, for example, whether it agrees with the commenters’
    coverage predictions. If so, it might elucidate whether it expects the loss to be minor or
    substantial, and how that weighs against the advancement of other Medicaid objectives. Nothing
    close to this appears in the Secretary’s approval letter. That does not mean that the Government
    19
    must “recit[e] and refut[e] every objection submitted in opposition to the proposed
    demonstration.” HHS MSJ at 22. It just means that, at a minimum, the agency cannot “entirely
    fail[] to consider an important aspect of the problem,” repeatedly raised in the comment period.
    See State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    .
    Arkansas maintains that the Secretary did not need to consider any reduction in coverage
    because it  unlike Kentucky  did not predict that the project would even cause coverage loss.
    See Ark. MSJ at 24. But the state’s failure in that respect does not alter HHS’s inquiry. Under
    the Medicaid Act, the Secretary may approve only those demonstration projects that are “likely
    to assist in promoting the objectives of [Medicaid],” and the parties agree that the provision of
    health coverage is a “central” objective of the Act. See 42 U.S.C. § 1315(a); HHS MSJ at 12–
    13; Ark. MSJ at 13. Whether a state gives the Secretary excellent data or no data at all about
    coverage, his duty remains the same: to determine whether the proposed project will promote the
    objectives of the Act, including whether it advances or hinders the provision of health coverage
    to the needy. If it were otherwise, HHS could approve a project that would decimate Medicaid
    coverage without so much as addressing the issue where the state did not submit its own estimate
    of coverage loss. Even putting to one side the agency’s affirmative obligation to address
    coverage loss, however, the Secretary unquestionably has a duty to consider that issue where
    multiple commenters provide credible forecasts that it will occur. See, e.g., AR 1269, 1277,
    1285, 1294–95. Here, as has been said, the agency had and neglected that duty.
    In a last attempt to resist this conclusion, the Secretary says that he did not need to
    consider coverage because he had no obligation to offer any explanation of his decision to
    approve a demonstration project. See HHS MSJ at 22–23; see also Tr. at 9. For support, HHS
    points to the regulations governing its approval of demonstration projects, which do not
    20
    explicitly require the Secretary to respond to comments or articulate the basis for his decision.
    See HHS MSJ at 22 (discussing 42 C.F.R. § 431.416). The APA, however, requires more.
    Where an agency decision is judicially reviewable, as the Court has already held this one is, see
    Stewart 
    I, 313 F. Supp. 3d at 254
    –56, the Government “must give a reason that a court can
    measure . . . against the ‘arbitrary or capricious’ standard of the APA.” Kreis v. Sec’y of Air
    Force, 
    866 F.2d 1508
    , 1514–15 (D.C. Cir. 1989); see also Coburn v. McHugh, 
    679 F.3d 924
    , 934
    (D.C. Cir. 2012) (“At the very least, the Board must ‘provide an explanation that will enable the
    court to evaluate the agency’s rationale at the time of decision.’”) (quoting Pension Benefit Guar.
    Corp. v. LTV Corp., 
    496 U.S. 633
    , 654 (1990)). HHS’s regulations — which require CMS to
    maintain and publish an administrative record of public comments, any CMS responses, and a
    written approval or disapproval letter — are fully consonant with this axiomatic administrative-
    law requirement. See 42 C.F.R. § 431.416(f). The argument that no explanation for the
    Secretary’s decision is required thus does not save it.
    b. Promote Coverage
    At the same time that he failed to consider the risk to coverage, the Secretary identified
    only one element of the Amendments that might promote health coverage. In a single sentence,
    he noted that “a more limited period of retroactive eligibility will encourage beneficiaries to
    obtain and maintain health coverage, even when they are healthy.” AR 8. Little needs to be said
    on this score. It is well established that “conclusory or unsupported suppositions” do not satisfy
    the agency’s obligation to engage in reasoned decisionmaking. See McDonnell Douglas Corp. v.
    U.S. Dep’t of Air Force, 
    375 F.3d 1182
    , 1187 (D.C. Cir. 2004). That is particularly so in the
    face of numerous comments taking the opposite position. As the American Congress of
    Obstetricians and Gynecologists, among others, explained, limiting retroactive coverage may
    21
    lead “Medicaid-eligible persons [to] wait even longer to have their conditions treated to avoid
    incurring medical bills they cannot pay.” AR 1279. And when they do eventually arrive for
    treatment, they will be covered for less time than they would have been before AWA took effect,
    by definition reducing their Medicaid coverage. See AR 1338 (National Health Law Program
    describing this risk). HHS’s brief reference to the potential coverage-promoting effects of the
    changes to retroactive eligibility thus does not get it across the line.
    2. Counterarguments
    Defendants offer two separate reasons for the Court to overlook the Secretary’s failure to
    consider coverage, neither of which is persuasive. They say first that the Arkansas Works
    Amendments promote several other important objectives of Medicaid, including the health of
    Medicaid-eligible persons. Second, Defendants maintain that any deficiency in the
    administrative record in this case is cured by the agency’s subsequent approval of Kentucky’s
    similar project on remand from the Court’s decision in Stewart I.
    a. Other Objectives
    Defendants justify the proposed demonstration project on the ground that, regardless of
    its effect on Medicaid coverage, it advances other objectives of the Act. HHS specifically
    insists, as it did in Stewart I, that the Secretary was on solid ground in finding that the project
    would improve health outcomes, thereby advancing the goals of Medicaid. See HHS MSJ at 17–
    18. Faced with this argument previously, this Court expressed skepticism that health, generally
    construed, was properly considered an objective of the Act. See Stewart 
    I, 313 F. Supp. 3d at 266
    . It ultimately held that the agency’s “focus on health is no substitute for considering
    Medicaid’s central concern: covering health costs” through the provision of free or low-cost
    health coverage. 
    Id. The Court
    reached the same conclusion in response to assertions that
    22
    Kentucky HEALTH promoted independence and self-sufficiency. 
    Id. at 271–72.
    HHS has
    offered no argument here that calls those conclusions into question.
    Arkansas presses the point in a somewhat different way, asserting that the provision of
    Medicaid coverage is (1) the purpose only of Medicaid appropriations, not Medicaid, (2) in
    “irreconcilable tension” with other purposes of the Act, and (3) not applicable to the Medicaid
    expansion population. See Ark. MSJ at 10–22. At the same time, it concedes, seemingly in
    conflict with its other contentions, that it is “readily apparent” that providing “Medicaid coverage
    for Medicaid-eligible people” is “an objective of Medicaid.” 
    Id. at 13.
    The Court has said this
    before and will say it again: if, as Arkansas and HHS admit (and this Court has found), ensuring
    Medicaid coverage for the needy is a key objective of the Act, the Secretary’s failure to consider
    the effects of the project on coverage alone renders his decision arbitrary and capricious; it does
    not matter that HHS deemed the project to advance other objectives of the Act.
    While the Court might stop there, a brief foray into Arkansas’s arguments is nevertheless
    worthwhile. As to the first, Medicaid is an appropriations statute enacted pursuant to
    “Congress’s power under the Spending Clause.” 
    NFIB, 567 U.S. at 542
    . What better place
    could the purpose of a spending program be found than in the provision that sets up the
    “purpose” of its appropriations? Arkansas’s second objection is even more puzzling. The Court
    does not understand how the objectives of a statute all agree was designed to provide free or low-
    cost medical care to the needy could nevertheless stand in “irreconcilable tension” with the goal
    of providing free or low-cost medical care to that population. The third sits on more
    comprehensible ground, though it yields Arkansas no more success. Addressing the purpose of
    the Medicaid expansion in Stewart I, the Court explained that “the Medicaid statute — taken as a
    whole — confirms that Congress intended to provide medical assistance to the expansion
    23
    
    population.” 313 F. Supp. 3d at 269
    . HHS conceded as much in that case. 
    Id. Neither party
    has
    offered any reason to retreat from that determination.
    Defendants’ attempts to find refuge in other purposes of the Act and the propriety of
    Chevron deference as to those purposes are thus all hat, no cattle. Because they agree that the
    provision of low-cost medical care to Medicaid-eligible persons is a “core” purpose of the Act,
    see HHS Reply at 5, there is no legally significant dispute over the meaning of the Medicaid Act.
    What matters, instead, is the question addressed above: whether the Secretary adequately
    considered this issue. As has been made abundantly clear, he did not. Perhaps understanding as
    much, HHS largely attempts to justify its approval of the project in this case not on the Arkansas
    record but on another record entirely.
    b. Kentucky Remand
    This brings the Court to the argument that leads off the Secretary’s Reply Brief: that his
    approval of AWA “is amply justified by the reasoning in his November 20, 2018, approval of
    Kentucky’s materially similar project.” HHS Reply at 1. In particular, HHS argues that the
    project on review here will, like the one approved on remand in Kentucky, help adults “transition
    from Medicaid to financial independence,” thereby enhancing “the fiscal sustainability of
    Arkansas’s Medicaid program”  an objective of the Act. 
    Id. at 6.
    The Government clarified at
    oral argument that this is not merely a contention against vacatur  although it was principally
    offered as such  but also an argument in favor of sustaining the Secretary’s approval entirely.
    See Tr. at 8–10. The Court addresses the latter position here, leaving the remedy question for the
    end. In short, three weighty and independent rationales require rejecting HHS’s assertion that
    the Amendments should be approved based on the record in the Kentucky remand proceeding.
    24
    First, it runs headlong into the “fundamental rule of administrative law” that a reviewing
    court “must judge the propriety of such action solely by the grounds invoked by the agency.”
    SEC v. Chenery Corp., 
    332 U.S. 194
    , 196 (1947). Nowhere in the Secretary’s approval letter
    does he justify his decision based on concerns about the sustainability of Arkansas’s Medicaid
    program, or on a belief that the project will help Medicaid-eligible persons to gain sufficient
    financial resources to be able to purchase private insurance. And the Court “may not accept []
    counsel’s post hoc rationalizations for agency action.” State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 50
    ; see also
    Burlington Truck 
    Lines, 371 U.S. at 168
    –69 (“Chenery requires that an agency’s discretionary
    order be upheld, if at all, on the same basis articulated in the order by the agency itself.”). The
    Government responded at oral argument that the Secretary did not need to provide any basis for
    his decision approving Arkansas’s proposed project, so it does not matter on what justification
    his decision is judicially upheld. See Tr. at 9–10. The Court has already explained why that
    assertion is inconsistent with the APA, see supra at 20–21, and it will not spill more ink on the
    matter here.
    HHS’s argument suffers from a second and equally significant flaw. The demonstration
    project under consideration in Kentucky involves different considerations from the Arkansas
    project, and the rationales in favor of approving one may well not apply to approving the other.
    The Secretary said as much in opposing this case’s designation as related to the Kentucky one.
    See ECF No. 17 (“The two cases involve two separate approvals of two distinct projects in two
    different States.”). Consider the principal arguments the Secretary relies upon on remand in
    Kentucky. First, he says that the project promotes coverage because in its absence, the
    expansion population would have no Medicaid coverage. See Stewart v. Azar, No. 18-152, ECF
    No. 108 (HHS MSJ) at 18–20. A necessary ingredient of this argument appears to be that the
    25
    Kentucky Governor has conditioned the Commonwealth’s continued expansion of Medicaid on
    the Secretary’s approval of the proposed project. 
    Id. at 19.
    There is no suggestion that
    Arkansas’s Governor has made any similar kind of threat with regard to the Arkansas Works
    Amendments. Second, the Secretary justifies the Kentucky program on the ground that it
    advances the fiscal sustainability of the state’s Medicaid program, which is at risk due to
    Kentucky’s dire budgetary situation. 
    Id. at 15–18.
    Yet there is no assertion that Arkansas is
    suffering from similar fiscal problems. The Government’s argument that the Kentucky approval
    justifies the decision on review in this case is particularly unpersuasive considering these
    significant differences.
    The final reason to reject this argument is the simplest: the justification the Secretary has
    given for sustaining Kentucky’s program on remand is insufficient and the Court today rejects it
    in its latest Opinion in Stewart. See Stewart v. Azar, No. 18-152, Slip Opinion at 3 (Mar. 27,
    2019) (Stewart II). If the explanation does not even justify affirmance of Kentucky’s project, it
    cannot support upholding a different administrative decision approving a different state’s project.
    *       *       *
    In sum, the Secretary’s approval of the Arkansas Works Amendments is arbitrary and
    capricious because it did not address  despite receiving substantial comments on the matter 
    whether and how the project would implicate the “core” objective of Medicaid: the provision of
    medical coverage to the needy. Neither his consideration of other Medicaid Act objectives nor
    his subsequent approval of Kentucky’s separate demonstration project cure that deficiency. This
    failure infected the Secretary’s approval of AWA as a whole, such that those Amendments are
    invalid. The Court will thus grant Plaintiffs full relief on their arbitrary-and-capricious claim,
    26
    removing any need to address their separate statutory-authority, APA notice-and-comment, and
    constitutional arguments.
    Remedy
    That leaves only the question of the proper remedy, which in these circumstances is not
    small beer. When a court concludes that agency action is unlawful, “the practice of the court is
    ordinarily to vacate the rule.” Ill. Pub. Telecomms. Ass’n v. FCC, 
    123 F.3d 693
    , 693 (D.C. Cir.
    1997); Reed v. Salazar, 
    744 F. Supp. 2d 98
    , 119 (D.D.C. 2010) (“[T]he default remedy is to set
    aside Defendants’ action.”); Sierra Club v. Van Antwerp, 
    719 F. Supp. 2d 77
    , 78 (D.D.C. 2010)
    (“[B]oth the Supreme Court and the D.C. Circuit Court have held that remand, along with
    vacatur, is the presumptively appropriate remedy for a violation of the APA.”). “[A]lthough
    vacatur is the normal remedy, [courts] sometimes decline to vacate an agency’s action.” Allina
    Health Servs. v. Sebelius, 
    746 F.3d 1102
    , 1110 (D.C. Cir. 2014). That decision depends on the
    “seriousness of the order’s deficiencies (and thus the extent of doubt whether the agency chose
    correctly) and the disruptive consequences of an interim change.” Allied-Signal, Inc. v. U.S.
    Nuclear Reg. Comm’n, 
    988 F.2d 146
    , 150-51 (D.C. Cir. 1993) (citation omitted); see also
    Standing Rock Sioux Tribe v. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 
    282 F. Supp. 3d 91
    , 103 (D.D.C.
    2017) (declining to vacate when agency “largely complied” with statute and could likely
    substantiate prior conclusions on remand).
    In Stewart I, the Court concluded that both factors supported vacatur. The Government’s
    failure to consider an objective of Medicaid was a “major shortcoming” going “to the heart” of
    his decision. 
    See 313 F. Supp. 3d at 273
    . And vacatur was not overly disruptive because the
    project had “yet to take effect” and the plaintiffs could suffer “serious harm[s]” were Kentucky
    27
    HEALTH allowed to be implemented pending further proceedings. 
    Id. While the
    journey is
    somewhat different in this case, the Court arrives at the same destination.
    1. Seriousness of Deficiencies
    The first factor does not favor the Government. For starters, in Stewart I, the Court
    concluded that the same legal error was a “major shortcoming” going “to the heart of the
    Secretary’s 
    decision.” 313 F. Supp. 3d at 273
    . It explained that the D.C. Circuit has “repeatedly
    vacated agency actions with that flaw.” 
    Id. Defendants respond
    that the Secretary has cured the
    error identified in Stewart I on remand, so it will assuredly be able to cure this one upon remand,
    too. See HHS MSJ at 28-29; see also Ark. MSJ at 37-38. Not so. As explained at length in
    Stewart II, the Court finds that the remand has not cured this “major shortcoming.” See Slip Op.
    at 3, 14–45. Because the agency failed to provide a legally sufficient rationale upon remand
    from Stewart I, the Court is even less sanguine that it will be able to do so in this case than when
    it vacated the Secretary’s Kentucky approval the first time.
    This does not mean it will be impossible for the agency to justify its approval of a
    demonstration project like this one. The Court’s decision does not go that far. But after at least
    two attempts for Kentucky, it has yet to do that analysis. Indeed, HHS may find it more difficult
    to offer a sufficient rationale in its second attempt in this case than in Kentucky. Arkansas does
    not appear to face the kind of fiscal issues asserted in Kentucky; instead, the state’s data suggest
    that the Medicaid expansion has reduced the amount Arkansas will spend on health care for this
    population between 2017 and 2021. See ECF No. 53-6, Exh. 55 (Final Report of Arkansas
    Health Reform Legislative Task Force) (explaining that if Arkansas rejects Medicaid expansion,
    “the negative impact to the state budget is approximately $438 [million]” during this time
    frame). It stands to reason that the state will have an uphill climb making the case that the
    28
    expansion has pressed its annual budget, such that eligible persons should be pushed off the rolls.
    Such fiscal considerations would, in any event, need to be balanced against the more than 16,000
    persons who have already lost their coverage because of the new requirements. See Arkansas
    Works Reports at 18, 27, 36, 45. The upshot is that the road to cure the deficiency in this case is,
    at best, a rocky one, strongly weighing in favor of vacatur.
    2. Seriousness of Disruption
    The second factor is a closer call. Arkansas began implementing its demonstration
    project in June 2018, imposing work requirements on adults ages 30–49 and implementing the
    changes to retroactive coverage; it began enforcing work requirements as to adults ages 19–29 in
    January 2019. HHS and Arkansas assert that any interruption in the project would be
    enormously disruptive because it would interfere with the “State’s data collection efforts,” HHS
    Reply at 22, and “undermine” its “extensive efforts to educate Arkansas Works beneficiaries” on
    the work requirements. See Ark. MSJ at 38–39. They emphasize that, because the Kentucky
    program had not yet taken effect at the time of its vacatur, these concerns were not present in
    Stewart I. 
    Id. The Court
    is not insensitive to the practical concerns Defendants raise about
    pausing enforcement of the Amendments, nor does it take lightly the effect of its ruling upon the
    state today. For the reasons that follow, however, it finds that the probable disruptions are not so
    significant as to require deviation from the ordinary rule of vacatur.
    Consider first the nature and extent of the disruptions. If the Court vacates the
    Secretary’s approval of AWA, the state would no longer condition certain Medicaid recipients’
    coverage on reporting 80 hours of qualifying activities each month and would restore the number
    of months of retroactive coverage to three. In other words, vacatur would return matters to the
    way they were before the project was approved. Both changes, HHS asserts, will disrupt the
    29
    state’s data-collection efforts. See HHS MSJ at 29. If Arkansas — as the party responsible for
    collecting and analyzing data from the project — has concerns about data collection in the event
    of vacatur, it does not say as much. See Ark. MSJ at 38–40 (mentioning only disruptive effects
    on education and outreach); ECF No. 45 (Ark. Reply) (same). Indeed, one amicus points out that
    the Secretary approved this project without “a proposed evaluation design.” See Amicus Brief of
    Deans, Chairs, and Scholars at 19–20.
    The Court assumes, however, that vacatur would interrupt the state’s efforts to collect
    data on the effects of the work requirements and changes to retroactive coverage. While such
    concerns are not insignificant, they are tempered in the context of this case. Experimental
    projects are intended to help states like Arkansas “test out new ideas” for providing medical
    coverage to the needy, thereby influencing the trajectory of the federal-state Medicaid
    partnership down the line. 
    See supra
    S. Rep. No. 1589 at 1961. If, after further consideration or
    after prevailing on appeal, the Secretary and Arkansas wish to move ahead with work
    requirements, they will remain able to do so in the future. And if they are dissatisfied with the
    data gathered from the initial months of the project because of the interruption caused by vacatur,
    Defendants could extend the project for an additional period of time to collect more information.
    This is not to minimize the importance of data collection in the context of an experimental
    project; it is just to say that vacatur will have little lasting impact on HHS’s or Arkansas’s
    interests. That distinguishes this case from others in which the D.C. Circuit has declined to
    vacate on account of irreversible harms that such a remedy would inflict on the status quo. See
    
    Allied-Signal, 988 F.2d at 151
    .
    Defendants also maintain that vacatur will harm “Arkansas’s education and outreach
    efforts.” Ark. MSJ at 39. In that regard, they explain that a decision invalidating the work
    30
    requirements will be confusing to Medicaid recipients who have just recently been informed that
    they have to meet those requirements. 
    Id. at 38–39.
    The Court grants that vacatur of work
    requirements that have already been implemented may send mixed messages. But any disruption
    in this respect is not sufficiently significant to avoid vacatur. For one thing, Defendants have
    expressed confidence throughout this case that they can communicate with Medicaid recipients
    regarding the terms of the work requirements. See HHS MSJ at 8; Ark MSJ at 27, 34–35. If that
    is so, they should be able to inform them that the requirements are paused for now and, if later
    reapproved, that they are put back into effect. It bears mentioning here, however, that the State’s
    outreach efforts may well be falling severely short. Notably, only 12.3% of persons not exempt
    from the requirements reported any kind of qualifying activity. See Arkansas Works Reports
    June–November 2018 at 47, 52. The numbers are even lower for several other months. 
    Id. Arkansas might
    use the time while the program is paused to consider whether and how to better
    educate persons about the requirements and how to satisfy them. Admittedly, vacatur could
    make such outreach complicated. Ultimately, however, the Court finds that the harms to prior
    and ongoing education do not tip the scales against vacatur.
    In fact, the structure of the Amendments, considered with the timing of this Opinion,
    renders vacatur less disruptive that might be expected. As mentioned before, Arkansas Works
    recipients only lose coverage after three months of non-compliance with the work requirements.
    See AR 31. And the three-month clock starts over at the beginning of the calendar year. 
    Id. Because fewer
    than three months have elapsed in 2019, the work requirements have not yet
    resulted in anyone’s being disenrolled, as such actions cannot take place until April 1. As a
    consequence, vacatur of the Amendments will not require Arkansas to re-enroll persons who
    have lost their coverage, with the administrative and communication-related headaches that
    31
    might entail. Instead, it just requires them to communicate to providers that they should not
    disenroll persons moving forward on account of the requirements. The bottom line: “This is not
    a case in which the ‘egg has been scrambled,’ and it is too late to reverse course.” Allina 
    Health, 746 F.3d at 1110
    –11 (quoting Sugar Cane Growers Co-op of Fla. v. Veneman, 
    289 F.3d 89
    , 97
    (D.C. Cir. 2002)).
    Finally, the Court emphasizes that the disruptions to Arkansas’s administration of its
    Medicaid program must be balanced against the harms that Plaintiffs and persons like them will
    experience if the program remains in effect. Cf. A.L. Pharma, Inc. v. Shalala, 
    62 F.3d 1484
    ,
    1492 (D.C. Cir. 1995) (explaining that vacatur inappropriate because “nothing in the record
    suggests that significant harm would result from allowing the approval to remain in effect
    pending the agency’s further explanation”); see also Tr. at 13 (conceding that court should
    consider harms to Plaintiffs as part of equitable inquiry into vacatur). Arkansas’s own numbers
    confirm that in 2018, more than 16,000 persons have lost their Medicaid. Defendants offer no
    reason to think the numbers will be different in 2019; indeed, once the requirements apply to
    persons aged 19–29, they seem likely to rise. See Arkansas Works Reports at 18, 27, 36, 45.
    Weighing the harms these persons will suffer from leaving in place a legally deficient order
    against the disruptions to the State’s data-collection and education efforts due to vacatur renders
    a clear answer: the Arkansas Works Amendments cannot stand.
    32
    IV.    CONCLUSION
    For the foregoing reasons, the Court will grant Plaintiffs’ Motion for Summary Judgment
    and deny Defendants’ Cross-Motions. A separate Order consistent with this Opinion will issue
    this day, remanding the matter to HHS.
    /s/ James E. Boasberg
    JAMES E. BOASBERG
    United States District Judge
    Date: March 27, 2019
    33
    APPENDIX A
    Arkansas Health                                 Comments
    Plan Component
    Community-         AR 1269 (Arkansas Advocates for Children & Families) (noting that
    Engagement         the requirement “will increase the rate of uninsured Arkansans” based
    Requirement        on comparable effect in TANF program) AR 1277 (American
    Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, et al.) (“The experience
    of the TANF program . . . demonstrates that imposing work
    requirements on Medicaid beneficiaries would . . . lead to the loss of
    health care coverage for substantial numbers of people who are unable
    to work or face major barriers to finding and retaining employment.”);
    AR 1285 (Families USA) (“The presence of the requirement itself will
    be a barrier to enrollment, causing some eligible working individuals
    to forego applying for coverage, and will make it more difficult for
    some statutorily eligible individuals to maintain coverage.”); AR 1291
    (AARP) (expressing concern that requirements would “present an
    unnecessary barrier to health coverage for a sector of Arkansas’s
    population for whom coverage is critical”); AR 1294 (Cystic Fibrosis
    Foundation) (“We are concerned that this definition [of medically
    unfit] does not specify what will qualify an individual for exemption,
    and that people with cystic fibrosis may lose coverage because they
    are unable to satisfy the requirement due to health status.”); AR 1308
    (Arkansas Hospital Association) (“These proposed changes . . . will
    likely lead to increases in churn, gaps in coverage, uninsurance and
    uncompensated care for hospitals and other providers.”); AR 1326
    (Legal Aid of Arkansas) (noting that the requirement “would exclude
    individuals . . . who are partially employable but suffer due to chronic
    health conditions”); AR 1337 (National Health Law Program) (“The
    end result of this policy will likely be fewer people with Medicaid
    coverage and more uninsured people delaying treatment.”); AR 1341
    (Nat’l Alliance on Mental Illness) (“NAMI Arkansas is concerned that
    the implementation of mandatory work requirements could cause
    substantial numbers of people with mental illness to lose health
    coverage, making it difficult to access mental health care.”); AR
    1364–65 (Urban Institute Study) (detailing “coverage losses” as
    consideration for pending Medicaid work-related requirements
    nationwide and noting “potential adverse impacts on enrollees who
    have high health care needs but who do not qualify for disability
    benefits”); AR 1402 (Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access
    Commission) (listing an impact on coverage as implication of
    Medicaid work requirement and noting almost every state proposing
    requirement had estimated a coverage loss). AR 1421 (Kaiser Family
    Foundation Issue Brief) (arguing that based on the TANF experience,
    “a work requirement might result in eligible people losing coverage”).
    34
    Retroactive   AR 1292 (AARP) (warning lack of retroactive coverage would
    Eligibility   increase debt obligations on previous beneficiaries and would
    “increase the burden of uncompensated care on providers”); AR 1297
    (Human ARC) (“Gaps of time without medical coverage for the low-
    income population that are eligible and applying for Medicaid will be
    significant.”); AR 1307 (Arkansas Hospital Association) (“AHA is
    concerned that the waiver of retroactive eligibility will result in
    unanticipated and avoidable gaps in coverage and healthcare debt.”);
    AR 1320 (Cancer Action Network) (stating waiver of retroactive
    eligibility “could place a substantial financial burden on enrollees and
    cause significant disruptions in care”); AR 1338 (National Health Law
    Program) (“The entirely predictable result will be . . . more individuals
    experiencing gaps in coverage when some providers refuse to treat
    them.”).
    35