Navy Seal 1 v. Austin ( 2022 )


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  •                             UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
    NAVY SEAL 1, et al.,
    Plaintiffs
    v.
    Civil Action No. 22-0688 (CKK)
    LLOYD AUSTIN, in his official capacity as
    Secretary of the United States Department of
    Defense, et al.,
    Defendants.
    MEMORANDUM OPINION
    (April 29, 2022)
    Plaintiff Navy SEAL 4 is a Navy servicemember and religious objector to one of nine
    vaccines mandated by the Navy. Before the Court is his [14] Motion for Preliminary Injunction
    (“Motion”), which seeks an order barring (1) the Navy from discharging him for his failure to
    comply with Navy medical requirements and (2) the Navy from taking any other adverse action
    against him (including, for example, reassignment). The Motion raises particularly difficult
    questions that implicate a storm of colliding constitutional interests of exceptional public import.
    On the one hand, Plaintiff alleges a violation of a fundamental right guaranteed by the
    Constitution’s Free Exercise Clause. On the other hand, the Commander-in-Chief Clause
    provides the military broadly unfettered authority to ensure military readiness and the health of
    the Armed Forces. The tension between these two competing interests is even further
    complicated by a relative dearth of precedent and everchanging, novel science on which the
    vaccine in question rests. With these challenges in mind, and after careful review of the
    1
    pleadings, 1 the relevant legal and historical authorities, and the entire record, Court shall DENY
    Plaintiff’s [14] Motion for Preliminary Injunction.
    I.   BACKGROUND
    A. General Background
    Vaccination mandates within the Armed Forces have a long history in this country.
    “[E]xecutive immunization requirements predate the birth of this country, with George
    Washington famously requiring members of the Continental Army to be inoculated against
    smallpox.” Feds for Med. Freedom v. Biden, 
    25 F.4th 354
    , 357 n.6 (5th Cir. 2022) (Higginson,
    J., dissenting). Until August 2021, the Navy mandated all servicemembers receive influenza,
    tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis vaccines. See ECF 22-6. The Navy also mandated other
    vaccines depending on the nature and location of a servicemember’s mission, including
    vaccination against anthrax, Japanese encephalitis, yellow fever, typhoid fever, and smallpox,
    among others. ECF 22-6 at 4. On August 24, 2021, the Secretary of Defense directed the Navy
    to add another vaccine to the list––vaccination combatting COVID-19. ECF 22-3 at 1. The
    Secretary of Defense explained that, “[t]o defend this Nation, we need a healthy and ready
    force.” 
    Id.
     Accordingly, “[a]fter careful consultation with medical experts and military
    leadership, and with the support of the President [of the United States], [the Secretary of
    1
    This Memorandum Opinion focuses on the following documents:
    • Plaintiffs’ Complaint, ECF No. 3;
    • Plaintiff’s Memorandum in Support of Plaintiff Navy SEAL 4’s Motion for Preliminary
    Injunction, ECF No. 14-1 (“Motion” or “Mot.”);
    • Defendants’ Response in Opposition to Plaintiff Navy SEAL 4’s Motion for Preliminary
    Injunction, ECF No. 22 (“Opp.”);
    • Plaintiff’s Reply in Support of Plaintiff Navy SEAL 4’s Motion for Preliminary
    Injunction, ECF No. 25 (“Repl.”).
    In an exercise of its discretion, the Court finds that holding oral argument would not be of
    material assistance in rendering a decision.
    2
    Defense] determined that mandatory vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
    is necessary to protect the Force and defend the American people.” 
    Id.
    Consistent with that order, the Secretary of the Navy, on the same day, directed all active
    duty servicemembers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by November 19, 2022. ECF 22-
    4 at 1; see Church v. Biden, --- F. Supp. 3d ---, 
    2021 WL 5179215
     at *4 (D.D.C. Nov. 8, 2021).
    At the same time, the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Operations, Plans, and Strategy
    announced that the Navy would grant medical, religious, and administrative exemptions as
    necessary. ECF 22-4 at 2. These three exemptions were largely repetitive of prior orders
    applicable to all vaccines. See ECF 22-7 at 4, 7-8.
    Pursuant to the Navy Military Personnel Manual and standing military orders applicable
    to all requests for religious exemptions, an active-duty servicemember seeking a religious
    exemption first submits a written request to their commanding officer and provides an
    assessment by a Navy chaplain regarding the nature and sincerity of the servicemember’s
    religious belief as applied to a particular order or requirement. ECF 22-7 at 8. The
    servicemember’s commander then recommends approval or denial to the Deputy Chief of Naval
    Operations. 
    Id.
     The recommendation must include: “(1) the negative effect (if any) of the
    requested accommodation on the unit’s military readiness, health, or safety; (2) the number of
    servicemembers in the command that have been granted a similar exemption; and (3) if
    recommending denial, a determination that the denial furthers a compelling government interest
    and there is no less restrictive means of accommodating the request.” 
    Id.
    If the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations denies the request, and the servicemember
    continues to refuse to comply with the order, separation proceedings may begin. Id. at 10. As to
    religious exemption requests from vaccination, the Government has represented in other cases
    3
    that, between 2015 and 2021, the Navy only adjudicated 83 such requests. E.g., Brief for
    Appellants at *8, U.S. Navy Seals 1-26 v. Biden, 
    2022 WL 987768
    , at *8 (Mar. 28, 2022) (No.
    22-10077). Between the summer of 2021 and February 2022, the Navy received more than 4000
    exemption requests from the COVID-19 vaccine alone. 
    Id.
     Administrative separation, i.e.,
    discharge under honorable conditions, is currently suspended in light of a nationwide injunction
    issued by the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas. See U.S. Navy
    Seals 1-26 v. Austin, --- F. Supp. 3d ---, 
    2022 WL 1025144
    , at *1 (N.D. Tex. Mar. 28, 2022).
    B. Background Specific to Plaintiff
    Plaintiff is a Special Warfare Operator Chief stationed in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Ex
    13 at 2. As part of the Naval Special Warfare (“NSW”) community, he conducts especially
    sensitive, clandestine missions around the world. 
    Id.
     As his commander explains, NSW
    personnel “conduct insertions and extractions by sea, air, or land; they capture high-value enemy
    personnel and terrorists around the world, carry out small-unit direction action missions against
    military targets; and perform underwater reconnaissance and strategic sabotage.” 
    Id.
     They are,
    in sum, the elite of the elite of this country’s special operations forces. See 
    id.
    Because NSW teams are quite small, “[t]he loss of even one member can degrade the[ir]
    effectiveness . . . and may compromise a mission.” 
    Id.
     Plaintiff’s commander concludes that “it
    is vital that each member of the NSW community be medically fit to train or deploy on short
    notice. Medical conditions that a service member has or could be afflicted with create additional
    risks, both medical and operational, not only for the service member afflicted, but also for other
    members of the unit and other units.” 
    Id.
    Notwithstanding these medical concerns, Plaintiff submitted a request for a religious
    exemption from COVID-19 vaccination (and no other medical requirement) on October 15,
    4
    2021. ECF 15-1 at 23. The religious basis for Plaintiff’s request is, in his words, as follows:
    I have searched for as much information as I can find on the [SARS-CoV-2] virus and the
    [COVID-19] vaccine[s] and I have talked to as many people I can including those with
    different beliefs from my own and I am continually led to uncertainty and doubt. The
    vaccine is not a sin and I understand that. My personal convictions are inspired by my
    study and understanding of the Bible, and personally directed by the true and living God.
    I am personally convicted [sic] that I should not receive any of the three [COVID]-19
    [vaccines then available]. To go against one’s convictions is where the issue lies. (James
    4:17)[.] If I fail to submit to the personal convictions that the Holy Spirit and Scripture
    has impressed upon me I will be sinning against God. I have personally searched the
    Scripture and sough[t] guidance from the Holy Spirit to come to my decision.
    Id. at 24. Based on this representation, the Navy chaplain concluded that Plaintiff’s “religious
    beliefs seemed honestly and sincerely held.” Id. at 26-27. With a full record before him,
    Plaintiff’s commander “recommended disapproval” concluding that “due to the viral nature of
    COVID-19 and the lack of alternative means of prevention, mandatory full vaccination is the
    least restrictive means available to protect the compelling government interest over the
    individual request.” Id. at 22. In the ultimate denial of Plaintiff’s request, the Deputy Chief of
    Naval Operations concluded by stating, “[w]hile every Sailor is welcome to express a religion of
    choice or none at all, our greater mission sometimes requires reasonable restrictions.” Id. at 19.
    After Plaintiff continued to object to the course of vaccination required, the Navy began
    separation proceedings on March 17, 2022, six days after Plaintiffs’ complaint was filed. See id.
    at 42.
    Accordingly, on March 25, 2022, Plaintiff filed the instant Motion for Preliminary
    Injunction, seeking an order halting the separation proceedings and any other adverse action the
    Navy might take short of separation. More specifically, Plaintiff seeks an injunction of the
    military-wide COVID-19 vaccine mandate, ECF No. 22-3, and an injunction against the Navy-
    5
    specific COVID 19 vaccine mandate (NAVADMIN 256/21), ECF No. 22-4, as applied to him. 2
    ECF No. 14-4. Just as all separation proceedings for religious objection to COVID-19
    vaccination are stayed nationwide, so too are the separation proceedings specific to Plaintiff. See
    ECF No. 21-1 at 8. In his sworn declaration, Plaintiff’s commander states that, as of April 8,
    2022, “Plaintiff has not been subject to any form of discipline or disparate treatment, nor any
    form of maltreatment, either as a result of his reluctance to take the vaccine or as a result of this
    lawsuit.” Id. In his reply, Plaintiff does not appear to contest this account, which the Court
    presumes to mean that Plaintiff continues to serve exactly as he did prior to this action’s
    inception.
    II.    LEGAL STANDARD
    Preliminary injunctive relief is an “extraordinary remedy that may only be awarded upon
    a clear showing that the plaintiff is entitled to such relief.” Sherley v. Sebelius, 
    644 F.3d 388
    ,
    392 (D.C. Cir. 2011) (quoting Winter v. Nat’l Res. Def. Council, Inc., 
    555 U.S. 7
    , 22 (2008)); see
    also Mazurek v. Armstrong, 
    520 U.S. 968
    , 972 (1997) (per curiam)). A plaintiff seeking
    preliminary injunctive relief “must establish [1] that he is likely to succeed on the merits, [2] that
    he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief, [3] that the balance of
    the equities tips in his favor, and [4] that an injunction is in the public interest.” Aamer v.
    Obama, 
    742 F.3d 1023
    , 1038 (D.C. Cir. 2014). When seeking such relief, “the movant has the
    burden to show that all four factors, taken together, weigh in favor of the injunction.” Abdullah
    v. Obama, 
    753 F.3d 193
    , 197 (D.C. Cir. 2014). “The four factors have typically been evaluated
    on a ‘sliding scale,’” whereby if “the movant makes an unusually strong showing on one of the
    factors, then [he] does not necessarily have to make as strong a showing on another factor.”
    2
    Although Plaintiff’s briefing sometimes speaks in terms of a facial challenge, by virtue of the
    relief sought, Plaintiff’s challenge appears to be as-applied.
    6
    Davis v. Pension Benefit Guar. Corp., 
    571 F.3d 1288
    , 1291-92 (D.C. Cir. 2009).
    It is unclear whether the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia
    Circuit’s (“D.C. Circuit”) sliding-scale approach to assessing the four preliminary injunction
    factors has survived the Supreme Court’s decision in Winter. See Save Jobs USA v. Dep’t of
    Homeland Sec., 
    105 F. Supp. 3d 108
    , 112 (D.D.C. 2015). Several judges on the D.C. Circuit
    have “read Winter to suggest if not to hold that ‘a likelihood of success is an independent, free-
    standing requirement for a preliminary injunction.’” Sherley, 
    644 F.3d at 393
     (quoting Davis,
    
    571 F.3d at 1296
     (Kavanaugh, J., concurring)). However, the D.C. Circuit has yet to hold
    definitively that Winter has displaced the sliding-scale analysis. See 
    id.
     In light of this
    ambiguity, the Court shall consider each of these factors and shall only evaluate the proper
    weight to accord to the likelihood of success if the Court finds that its relative weight would
    affect the outcome. Accord Church, 
    2021 WL 5179215
    , at *7.
    III.    DISCUSSION
    On the whole, the Court concludes that Plaintiff has not carried his burden to show that
    he is “clearly warranted” preliminary relief. Before turning to the plethora of issues with
    Plaintiff’s claims as presently pled, it is helpful first to distinguish between the two classes of
    actions Plaintiff asks the Court to enjoin: (1) separation from the Navy for religious objection to
    the Vaccination Order and (2) any other “adverse action.” As to the first, Plaintiff is not facing
    irreparable harm because another District Court has entered a preliminary injunction as to an
    entire class of Navy servicemembers (and a sub-class of Navy SEALs) barring their separation
    for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine on religious grounds. The Court further concludes that, even
    if there were not an injunction already applicable to Plaintiff, discharge would likely not be
    irreparable harm because Plaintiff would be entitled to reinstatement and backpay should he
    7
    ultimately succeed on the merits.
    As to everything else, a majority of the Supreme Court has already held (in a nonbinding,
    shadow docket decision), that the Government is likely to succeed on the merits on the same
    claims brought by Navy SEALs like Plaintiff. Austin v. U.S. Navy Seals 1-26, 
    142 S. Ct. 1301
    (2022) Although this decision is nonbinding, it is the most persuasive authority on which a
    District Court may rely. As such, and for the reasons that follow, the Court shall DENY
    Plaintiff’s request for a preliminary injunction.
    A. Discharge
    As to discharge, Plaintiff does not face irreparable harm that is “certainly impending.”
    Another District Court has issued a preliminary injunction against the enforcement of
    NAVADMIN 256/21, the policy on which Plaintiff’s separation would be based. U.S. Navy
    Seals 1-26, 
    2022 WL 1025144
    , at *3-4. That preliminary injunction applies to an entire class of
    all Navy servicemembers, of which Plaintiff is a member. See id. at *13. As a general rule, an
    injunction against governmental action means that a plaintiff suffers no irreparable injury that
    might arise therefrom. Order at 2, Pars Equality Center v. Trump, 17-cv-0255 (TSC) (D.D.C.
    Mar. 11, 2017) (slip op.). 3 Because the alleged injury is “‘dependent on contingent future events
    that may not occur as anticipated, or indeed may not occur at all,’” i.e., the dissolution of the
    injunction, the Court may not enter a redundant preliminary injunction addressing such a
    speculative injury. See Church, 
    2021 WL 5179215
    , at *8 (quoting Trump v. New York, 
    141 S. Ct. 530
    , 535 (2020)).
    Plaintiff’s arguments to the contrary are unavailing. First, Plaintiff raises the specter of
    “stigmati[zation],” “remov[al] from his hard-earned position as a Navy SEAL,” and “a host of
    3
    See also Faust v. Vilsack, 
    2021 WL 2806204
    , at *3 (E.D. Wis. July 6, 2021); Nat’l Urban
    League v. DeJoy, 
    2020 WL 6363959
    , at *11 (D. Md. Oct. 29, 2020).
    8
    other punitive measures.” Mot . at 20. All of these alleged injuries are short of separation and
    thus fall within the ambit of the portion of Plaintiff’s proposed injunction covering “any other
    adverse action.” Second, Plaintiff fears “criminal prosecution under the Uniform Code of
    Military Justice.” 
    Id.
     This is also an adverse action that is not separation and is addressed in
    subpart (B)(c) below. Third, Plaintiff argues that he is due an injunction in this case because the
    Government has appealed the nationwide injunction. Mot. at 20. Pars squarely rejected such an
    argument, and the Court does so here. Order at 1, Pars, 17-cv-0255. Whether the Government
    will ultimately succeed on appeal is entirely speculative. Finally, Plaintiff notes that the
    Supreme Court’s shadow docket decision is nonbinding. This observation is beside the point as
    there is nevertheless a nationwide injunction covering Plaintiff—on whose merits the Supreme
    Court has not yet passed judgment. Accordingly, because there is a nationwide injunction
    already ensuring the Government cannot, at this time, discharge Plaintiff for objection to
    vaccination, the Court holds that Plaintiff is not due a preliminary injunction in this case barring
    his discharge from the Navy.
    B. Any Other Adverse Action
    As currently pled, there are a plethora of weaknesses in Plaintiff’s claims that counsel
    against preliminary relief. First, there appears to be a serious question as to whether Plaintiff’s
    claims are justiciable, because they require the Court both to evaluate the merits of military
    expertise and to weigh technical issues of public health and immunology based on novel science
    that remains unfixed as the current COVID-19 pandemic turns endemic. Second, the Court is
    concerned that the record as it currently stands does not properly resolve whether mandatory
    vaccination is the least restrictive means as to Plaintiff to accomplish the Government’s interest
    in force readiness and national security more broadly. That fault permeates Plaintiff’s RFRA
    9
    claim, Free Exercise claim, and Equal Protection claim. Taken together, the Court concludes
    these issues militate against preliminary relief at this early stage of the case.
    a. Justiciability
    It is a longstanding principle of constitutional law that “[q]uestions, in their nature
    political or which are, by the constitution and laws, submitted to the executive, can never be
    made in this court.” Marbury v. Madison, 5 U.S. (1 Cranch) 137, 170 (1803). In Baker v. Carr,
    the Supreme Court identified several circumstances in which a question should be held
    nonjusticiable:
    a textually demonstrable constitutional commitment of the issue to a coordinate political
    department; or a lack of judicially discoverable and manageable standards for resolving
    it; or the impossibility of deciding without an initial policy determination of a kind
    clearly for nonjudicial discretion; or the impossibility of a court’s independent resolution
    without expressing lack of the respect due coordinate branches of government; or an
    unusual need for unquestioning adherence to a political decision already made; or the
    potentiality of embarrassment from multifarious pronouncements by various departments
    on one question.
    
    369 U.S. 186
    , 217 (1962). Put differently, “[c]laims are nonjusticiable where: (1) their
    resolution requires decisions which are not matters of judicial expertise but are matters of
    management, public policy or technical expertise; (2) the relief requested usurps the functions of
    a coordinate branch of government; or (3) the relief requested is not justicially manageable.”
    Nat’l Coal Ass’n v. Marshall, 
    510 F. Supp. 803
    , 805 (D.D.C. 1981) (citing Baker, 
    369 U.S. at 217
    ). Here, there are serious questions as to whether a judicial challenge to a military medical
    requirement (1) “usurps the functions” of powers committed to the Executive through the
    Commander-in-Chief Clause and (2) involves scientific determinations that “are not matters of
    judicial expertise but are matters of . . . technical expertise.”
    i. Military Judgment
    “Judges are not given the task of running the Army,” the Navy, or any other branch of the
    10
    military. See Orloff v. Willoughby, 
    345 U.S. 83
    , 93 (1953). That task is textually committed to
    the Executive, while it is Congress’ role to “make Rules for the Government and regulation” of
    the military. U.S. Const. Arts. I § 8, II § 2; Charette v. Walker, 
    996 F. Supp. 43
    , 50 (D.D.C.
    1998). “It is this power of oversight and control of military force by elected representatives and
    officials which underlies our entire constitutional system.” Gilligan v. Morgan, 
    413 U.S. 1
    , 10
    (1973). “The complex, subtle, and professional decisions as to the composition, training,
    equipping, and control of a military force are essentially professional military judgments”
    beyond the ken or competence of the courts. 
    Id.
    That is not to say that all military judgments are nonjusticiable. Some involve far more
    expertise than others. For example, deference is particularly due “when the military, pursuant to
    its own regulations, effects personnel changes through the promotion or discharge process.”
    Emory v. Sec’y of Navy, 
    819 F.2d 291
    , 294 (D.C. Cir. 1987); see also, e.g., Kries v. Secretary of
    Air Force, 
    866 F.2d 1508
    , 1512 (D.C. Cir. 1989) (“This court is not competent to compare
    appellant with officers competing for [] a promotion.”); Charette, 
    996 F. Supp. at 50
     (holding a
    former military officer’s “request for reinstatement . . . not justiciable”); Harkness v. Secretary of
    Navy, 
    858 F.3d 437
    , 444-45 (6th Cir. 2017) (“Duty assignments lie at the heart of military
    expertise and discretion, and we are wary of intruding upon that sphere of military decision-
    making.” (internal quotation marks omitted)). Sometimes, however, fitness for duty is
    justiciable, generally where resolution of the issue does not require evaluation of the merits of
    military discretion. See, e.g., Piersall v. Winter, 
    435 F.3d 319
    , 324 (D.C. Cir. 2006) (justiciable
    where review was limited to whether decision by civilian administrative board was arbitrary or
    capricious); Doe 2 v. Shanahan, 755 F. App’x 19, 23 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (suggesting that a “blanket
    ban” prohibiting indefinitely the accession of transgender individuals into the military would be
    11
    justiciable). The key question, then, is whether Plaintiff’s challenge implicates professional
    military expertise well beyond the Court’s ken.
    There are a number of reasons to think that in all likelihood it does. Reviewing military
    judgments here would require the Court to assess the Navy’s conclusion that this particular
    medical requirement was necessary to ensure Navy SEALs’ effectiveness in their military duties.
    Even more problematically, as Plaintiff takes pains to note, evaluating Plaintiff’s RFRA claim
    would require the Court to determine whether vaccination against COVID-19 is the narrowest
    means to accomplish the Navy’s interest in ensuring the success of this Plaintiff’s deployments.
    That would further require the Court to review the missions to which Plaintiff has been assigned
    in the recent past, the tactical particulars of those missions, and whether those tactical particulars
    are reflective of future special-operations missions to which Plaintiff would be assigned in the
    future. The tactical necessities of a particular mission are perhaps the epitome of “complex,
    subtle, and professional decisions” otherwise left to the Commander-in-Chief and their
    subordinates. See Short v. Berger, 
    2022 WL 105182
    , at *5 (C.D. Cal. Mar. 3, 2022); Trans. at
    42, ECF No. 22, Dunn v. Austin, No. 2:22-cv-00288-JAM-KJN (E.D. Cal. Feb. 28, 2022)
    application for injunction pending appeal denied No. 21A599, Doc. 7 (U.S. Apr. 15, 2022). As
    such, the Court remains concerned that this challenge to military policies as applied to this
    plaintiff may be nonjusticiable.
    ii. Immunology and Epidemiology
    Not only do judges not make good generals, Orloff, 
    345 U.S. at 95
    , they also do not make
    good immunologists or epidemiologists. On top of the military justiciability issues here, this
    case raises exceptionally fraught questions of medical science that the judiciary “lacks the
    background, competence, and expertise to assess.” See S. Bay United Pentecostal Church v.
    12
    Newsom, 
    140 S. Ct. 1613
    , 1614(2020) (Roberts, C.J., concurring); see also Bimber’s Delwood,
    Inc. v. James, 
    496 F. Supp. 2d 760
    , 773 (W.D.N.Y. 2020) (finding state public health measures
    taken to combat COVID-19 pandemic nonjusticiable). For questions of public health related to
    greenhouse gas emissions, for example, “[f]federal judges lack the scientific, economic, and
    technological resources an agency can utilize in coping with issues of [such complexity].” Am.
    Elec. Power Co v. Connecticut, 
    564 U.S. 410
    , 428 (2011). Here, a governmental agency
    textually committed to resolving these scientific debates brought its considerable scientific,
    economic, and technological resources to bear in determining that vaccination against COVID-
    19 is necessary to accomplish military goals generally and as applied to Plaintiff.
    In fact, the heart of Plaintiff’s challenge is contesting the very scientific conclusions that
    the military has come to. For example, Plaintiff would have the Court find, among other things,
    that none of the available COVID-19 vaccines are effective, all of the available COVID-19
    vaccines are “largely experimental,” natural immunity is superior to vaccination, “herd
    immunity” is superior to vaccination, the available vaccines only “target a largely extinct
    COVID-19 variant,” and that Plaintiff is so healthy that vaccination would cause him more
    medical harm than good. Repl. at 8, 9-10. There is simply little to no daylight between the
    parties’ respective scientific positions, and the Court is deeply concerned that it lacks the
    technical wherewithal to properly resolve the parties’ disagreements. 4
    Contrast this case, for example, with Roe v. Dep’t of Defense, 
    947 F.3d 207
     (4th Cir.
    2020). There, two Air Force servicemembers were discharged for testing positive for human
    immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the virus that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
    4
    The Court joins a number of others who denied motions for preliminary injunctions on these
    grounds (and others). See, e.g., Short v. Berger, 
    2022 WL 1203876
    , at *8 (D. Ariz. Apr. 22,
    2022); Trans. at 42, Dunn v. Austin, No. 2:22-cv-00288-JAM-KJN (E.D. Cal. Feb. 28, 2022);
    Short v. Berger, 
    2022 WL 105182
    , at *14.
    13
    (AIDS). Id. at 212. In evaluating whether the plaintiffs’ equal protection claim was justiciable,
    the Court noted that antiretroviral therapy, developed in the 1990s, so reduces an HIV-positive
    individual’s viral load so as to mitigate any harmful effects to the disease and prevent
    transmissibility. Id. at 213. The court did not have to engage in any scientific factfinding to
    come to that conclusion, in part because the science had been long settled, and also because the
    parties agreed on the science in their joint appendix. See id. at 213, 229.
    The opposite is the case here. As Plaintiff notes, the main variant of SARS-CoV-2
    circulating at the time of the military orders at issue, Delta, has almost been entirely displaced by
    another, Omicron, and its subvariants (Omicron BA.2 and, now, BA.3 and BA.4). See Centers
    for Disease Control and Prevention (“CDC”), Monitoring Variant Proportions (Apr. 26, 2022)
    available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions (last accessed Apr. 26,
    2022 1:59 PM ET). As new variants arise, there is necessarily a lag-time in peer reviewed,
    statistically-significant scientific studies conclusively demonstrating efficacy of any given
    vaccination. See, e.g., CDC, “Notes from the Field: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Infection in
    10 Persons Within 90 Days of Previous SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Infection––Four States,
    October 2021-January 2022,” (Apr. 8, 2022) available at
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/pdfs/mm7114a2-H.pdf (last accessed Apr. 26, 2022
    2:02 PM ET) (concluding, based on statistically insignificant anecdotal survey, “limits of
    infection-induced immunity against novel variants” and “additional protection” provided by
    vaccination against novel Omicron subvariants). The everchanging nature of SARS-CoV-2’s
    variants and subvariants even further complicates any attempt to assess the relative weight of the
    scientific authority upon which Department of Defense experts have relied. Doing so would be
    the polar opposite of the inquiry in Roe, involving certain science upon which both parties
    14
    agreed. See 947 F.3d at 229. The Court is not a virologist, epidemiologist, immunologist, or
    even a medical doctor, and binding precedent from the Supreme Court and the D.C. Circuit
    suggests that the Court should not try its untrained hand at resolving these disputes as they are
    presently pled.
    b. Merits
    i. RFRA
    The Religious Freedom Restoration Act provides that the government “shall not
    substantially burden a person’s exercise of religion even if the burden results from a rule of
    general applicability.” 42 U.S.C. § 2000bb-1(a). To prevail on a RFRA claim, a plaintiff must
    first show a “religious exercise” that has been burdened. Wilson v. James, 
    139 F. Supp. 3d 410
    ,
    424 (D.D.C. 2014) (APM); United States v. Sterling, 
    75 M.J. 407
    , 415 (CAAF 2016). A
    “religious exercise” “involves ‘not only belief and profession but the performance of (or
    abstention from) physical acts’ that are ‘engaged in for religious reasons.’” Burwell v. Hobby
    Lobby Stores, Inc., 
    134 S. Ct. 2751
    , 2770 (2014) (quoting Emp’t Div., Dep’t of Human Res. of
    Or. v. Smith, 
    494 U.S. 872
    , 877 (1990)). If confronted with a “religious exercise,” the
    government may impose a substantial burden on that religious exercise “only if it demonstrates
    that the application of the burden to the person––(1) is in furtherance of a compelling
    government interest; and (2) is the least restrictive means of furthering that compelling
    government interest.” 
    Id.
     § 20000bb-1(b).
    Through RFRA, Congress abrogated the Supreme Court’s holding in Smith that laws of
    generally applicable that only incidentally burden religious exercise are due rational basis review
    under the First Amendment’s Free Exercise Clause. It added even more protection than that
    which was afforded prior to Smith by focusing the inquiry even more on the particular claimant’s
    15
    circumstances. In other words, pursuant to RFRA, a court must “scrutinize[e] the asserted harm
    of granting specific exemptions to particular religious claims and . . . look to the marginal
    interest in enforcing the challenged government action in that particular context.” Holt v. Hobbs,
    
    135 S. Ct. 853
    , 863 (2015).
    Whether and to what extent military judgments are nevertheless due some degree of
    deference under RFRA is a matter of some debate. The D.C. Circuit has yet to decide the issue,
    and only one court of this jurisdiction has addressed it. See Singh v. McHugh, 
    109 F. Supp. 3d 72
    , 86 (D.D.C. 2015) (ABJ) amended and superseded in irrelevant part 
    185 F. Supp. 3d 201
    (D.D.C. 2016). In its legislative history, “Congress specifically acknowledged the importance of
    maintaining order and discipline within the military ranks, and it noted its expectations would
    adhere to the tradition of judicial deference in matters involving both prisons and the armed
    forces,” the two areas to which First Amendment jurisprudence has historically been much more
    permissive of burdens on free exercise. See id. at 89. The Senate Report explained that “[t]he
    committee intends and expects that [military] deference continue under this bill.” S. Rep. No.
    103-111, at 12. The House Report explained that “religious liberty claims in the context of
    prisons and the military present far different problems for the operation of those institutions than
    they do in civilian settings.” H.R. Rep. No. 103-88. Nevertheless, the Report continued,
    military and prison “[o]fficials must show that the relevant regulations are the least restrictive
    means of protecting a compelling government interest.” Id. On this legislative history, the Singh
    court concluded that it must apply strict scrutiny to the RFRA claim while “credit[ing] the
    [military’s] assertions and giv[ing] due respect to its articulation of important military interests.”
    Id. at 93.
    This approach strikes the Court as the appropriate balance between the statutory
    16
    language, Congressional intent, and judicial competency. Still, the Court stresses that context is
    important. As one law review article has argued, unlike grooming standards, vaccinations
    require a higher degree of deference because they “improve the readiness of the force,” the
    military generally has not granted religious exemptions from immunizations in the past, and the
    military relies on complex scientific data to promulgate immunization and medical requirements.
    See Lt. Col. Christopher J. Baker, Over Your Dead Body: An Analysis on Requests for Religious
    Accommodations for Immunizations and Vaccinations in the United States, 
    81 A.F. L. Rev. 1
    , 45
    (2020). As such, and to put a slightly finer point on Singh, it strikes the Court as more correct to
    say that the degree of deference to the military’s tailoring depends on the degree of military and
    scientific expertise necessary to make that judgment. With the standards of review on a military
    RFRA claim in mind, the Court turns to the claim at issue.
    As Defendants do not appear to contest at the moment whether Plaintiff holds a sincere
    religious belief within the meaning of RFRA, the Court need address the issue for present
    purposes. 5 As to the compelling interest question, however, it does not appear that Plaintiff has
    shown that Defendants lack a compelling interest for their vaccination orders, either generally or
    as applied to Plaintiff. Plaintiff maintains that the Navy does not have a “compelling interest in
    maintaining a healthy and worldwide deployable force” because it is “2022 and not 2020.” Repl.
    5
    The issue of sincerity, however, may bear brief mention. In recent briefing before the Supreme
    Court, the Government represented that “[b]etween 2015 and the summer of 2021, the Navy
    adjudicated 83 religious accommodation requests from any required vaccination.” Brief for
    Appellants at *8, U.S. Navy Seals 1-26 v. Biden, 
    2022 WL 987768
    , at *8 (Mar. 28, 2022) (No.
    22-10077). From October 2021 to February 2022, the Navy had received more than four
    thousand accommodation requests from COVID-19 vaccination alone. 
    Id.
     If true, it strikes the
    Court as statistically unlikely that all 4,000 requests are sincerely held. Particularly so here
    where Plaintiff’s alleged religious belief is only newly held and sparsely stated. Cf. Ramirez v.
    Collier, 
    142 S. Ct. 1264
    , 1278 (2022) (holding that evolving or newly held religious beliefs
    during the pendency of litigation is probative of sincerity). Nevertheless, any court should be
    loath to play the part of inquisitor, and this Court shall not do so at such an early stage of the
    case.
    17
    at 7. Plaintiff continues that it is “not 1918 when the Spanish flu was causing havoc, and it is not
    [] 2020, when the pandemic was at its peak,” further arguing that the military has no rational
    basis for its vaccination orders, much less a compelling interest in enforcing them Id. at 7-8, 8
    n.2. The Court understands Plaintiff to thereby maintain that the military does not have a
    compelling government interest in any immunization program, or at least in mandating the flu
    vaccine (to which Plaintiff does not object). On the Court’s review, no court has ever held that
    the military does not have a compelling interest in the health of its troops, and no court has
    suggested that vaccination against harmful diseases does not serve a compelling government
    interest. Indeed, Plaintiff cites no authority to this effect, beyond the Northern District of Texas’
    unsupported conclusion that vaccination of 99.4% of Navy servicemembers sufficiently protects
    the other 0.6%. U.S. Navy Seals 1-26 v. Biden, --- F. Supp. 3d --- 
    2022 WL 34443
    , at *10 (N.D.
    Tex. Jan. 3, 2022). It is also difficult for the Court to parse that decision’s legal reasoning, as
    that decision cites neither law nor science to support such a proposition.
    On the other hand, even the dissent in the Supreme Court’s grant of a partial stay in U.S.
    Navy Seals agreed that “the Navy has a compelling interest in preventing COVID-19 from
    impairing its ability to carry out its vital responsibilities, as well as a compelling interest in
    minimizing any serious health risk to Navy personnel.” Austin v. U.S. Navy Seals 1-26, 
    142 S. Ct. 1301
    , 1305 (2022) (Alito, J., dissenting). So have other district courts that have granted
    preliminary relief in similar circumstances. E.g., Air Force Officer v. Austin, --- F. Supp. 3d ---,
    
    2022 WL 468799
    , at *9 (M.D. Ga. Feb. 16, 2022) (“It would be a waste of time and wrong to
    state that ‘[s]temming the spread of COVID-19’ isn’t a compelling interest––the Supreme Court
    has already decided it is.”). As a practical matter, it strikes the Court that the sine qua non of
    military interests is keeping an individual servicemember fit enough to accomplish their tasks in
    18
    furtherance of national security. See Doe v. Garrett, 
    903 F.2d 1455
    , 1463 (11th Cir. 1990);
    Short, 
    2022 WL 1203876
    , at *12. Cf. Nat’l Federation of Fed. Emps. v. Cheney, 
    884 F.2d 603
    ,
    610 (D.C. Cir. 1989) (“It is readily apparent that the Army has a compelling safety interest in
    ensuring that . . . civilians who fly and service its airplanes and helicopters are not impaired by
    drugs.”).
    Relying on the Supreme Court’s decision in Hobby Lobby, Plaintiff correctly notes the
    Court must further ask whether the military has a compelling interest as to Plaintiff. Plaintiff
    seems to suggest that the military’s general compelling interest in ensuring the health of its
    servicemembers does not distill to a compelling interest in ensuring that Plaintiff remains healthy
    enough to accomplish his duties. Logically, it must, although the Court agrees that it must look
    to Plaintiff’s role in the military when assessing Defendants’ interest in enforcing its medical
    requirements as to Plaintiff.
    Plaintiff is, of course, a Navy SEAL. He is the elite of the elite, trained to respond to the
    most difficult of military tasks at a moment’s notice. As the Court noted above, “Navy SEALs
    conduct clandestine missions infiltrating their objective areas by fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft,
    Navy surface ships, combatant craft, submarines, and ground mobility vehicles.” ECF 21-1 at 2.
    Their tasks include “crisis response, support to forward presence operations, support to
    conventional Naval forces at sea, air, or land; they capture high-value enemy personnel and
    terrorists around the world, carry out small-unit direct action missions against military targets,
    and perform underwater reconnaissance and strategic sabotage.” 
    Id.
     Plaintiff is not a clerk, a
    nurse, or a chaplain. His role is not administrative. Lethality is his job.
    Plaintiff is also indispensable in any given mission. “The loss of even one member can
    degrade the effectiveness of small NSW units and may compromise a mission. Injured or sick
    19
    members of a SEAL team are not easily replaced; there are often no alternative members
    available.” 
    Id.
     Plaintiff does not contest Defendants’ proffered job description, but suggests, for
    example, that “there is a far greater risk of spraining or breaking his ankle” than falling ill from
    COVID-19. Mot. at 26. Assuming so for the moment, that does not make the military’s efforts
    to mitigate those risks any less compelling. Short, 
    2022 WL 1203866
    , at *13. The military
    provides Plaintiff with boots to prevent him from spraining his ankle and gives him a helmet to
    eliminate concussions. Similarly, Plaintiff suggests that vaccination does not serve a compelling
    interest because he has thus far accomplished his duties without falling seriously ill from
    COVID. 
    Id.
     Even so, it seems illogical to think that because a soldier has accomplished his
    tasks without, say, food or water that the military does not serve a compelling interest by
    providing rations. Simply put, of all the servicemembers in which the military has a great
    interest in keeping healthy, Navy SEALs are likely at the very top.
    Finally, the Court must address the extent to which vaccination against COVID-19 is the
    least restrictive means available to further Defendants’ interest in Plaintiff’s health specifically
    and force readiness broadly. As the Court addressed above, there is very little daylight between
    the parties’ scientific positions. Plaintiff thinks all available vaccines entirely “ineffective” while
    Defendants consider anything short of vaccination insufficient to manage the additional risk of
    morbidity absent vaccination. For present purposes, the Court will examine the scientific and
    medical contentions only to the extent necessary to resolve the instant request for preliminary
    relief and will give the military’s medical expertise due regard in its review.
    As a general matter, the overwhelming weight of scientific authority supports the
    proposition that COVID-19 vaccination reduces the severity and duration of disease. CDC,
    “SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions” (Apr. 26, 2022) available at
    20
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-
    classifications.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F20
    19-ncov%2Fvariants%2Fvariant-info.html (last accessed April 28, 2022 12:47 PM ET); National
    Institutes of Health COVID-19 Research, “Understanding COVID-19 Vaccines” (Jan. 31, 2022)
    available at https://covid19.nih.gov/covid-19-topics/covid-19-vaccines (last accessed April 28,
    2022 12:44 PM ET); CDC, Science Brief: COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination (Sept. 15,
    2021) available at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-
    vaccinated-people.html?msclkid=012484c4c71211ec870921b02b97bab7 (last accessed April 28,
    2022 12:42 PM ET). Early studies on vaccination and Omicron subvariants also support that
    conclusion. CDC, “Notes from the Field: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Infection in 10
    Persons Within 90 Days of Previous SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Infection––Four States,
    October 2021-January 2022,” (Apr. 8, 2022) available at
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/pdfs/mm7114a2-H.pdf (last accessed Apr. 26, 2022
    2:02 PM ET); CDC, “Effectiveness of MRNA Vaccination in Preventing COVID-19-Associated
    Invasive Mechanical Ventilation and Death––United States, March 2021-January 2022” (Mar.
    18, 2022) available at https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7112e1.htm (last accessed
    Apr. 28, 2022 3:07 PM ET); CDC, “SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) Variant Transmission
    Within Households –– Four U.S. Jurisdictions, November 2021-February 2022” (Mar. 4, 2022)
    available at
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7109e1.htm#:~:text=In%20a%20study%20of%2
    0household,of%20transmission%20to%20household%20contacts (last accessed Apr. 28, 2022
    3:08 PM ET).
    To contravene the hundreds of scientists, immunologists, virologists, and epidemiologists
    21
    that support Defendants’ position, Plaintiff points to his proffered expert, Dr. Peter A.
    McCullough (“Dr. McCullough”). ECF 14-3 at 2. Dr. McCullough has a master’s degree in
    public health (with a focus on epidemiology), but his practice was almost entirely internal
    medicine and clinical cardiology until he began publishing on COVID-19 in the early days of the
    pandemic. ECF 14-3 at 3-4. He believes that all COVID-19 vaccines are ineffective against all
    subvariants but Alpha (now extinct) because Alpha is, in fact, now extinct. Id. at 8.
    For that proposition, he cites mainly to one study: Public Health England’s “SARS-CoV-
    2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: Technical Briefing 17” (June
    25, 2021) available at
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
    /1001354/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf?msclkid=12d9598cc71411ec
    9a6cb0e48c457e31. This study stands for the unremarkable proposition that, of breakthrough
    infections caused by the Delta variant among the fully vaccinated shortly after the initial
    vaccination rollout in Britain, a higher proportion of those fully vaccinated with breakthrough
    infections died than in a set of unvaccinated Britons who tested positive for the Delta variant of
    SARS-CoV-2. As Public Health England (a British government agency) later underlined,
    responding to this study specifically, vaccines are “highly effective at preventing hospitalization,
    so it is vital to get both doses to gain maximum protection against all existing and emerging
    variants.” Reuters, “Fact Check–Claim that vaccinated people are six times more likely to die
    from the Delta variant than those who are unvaccinated is misleading,” (July 1, 2021 1:48 PM
    ET) available at https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-delta-vaccinated-
    idUSL2N2OD2CJ?msclkid=12d98817c71411ecbb330064666765ad (last accessed April 28,
    2022).
    22
    He also claims that “the US FDA and CDC have offered no interpretation of overall
    safety of the COVID-19 vaccines according to the manufacturer or as a group, nor have they
    offered methods of risk mitigation for these serious adverse effects,” ECF 14-3 at 8, and that
    “[t]here has been no valid study demonstrating clinical benefit with COVID-19 vaccination in
    those who have well documented or even suspected prior COVID-19 illness,” ECF 14-3 at 8.
    Contra National Institutes of Health COVID-19 Research, “Understanding COVID-19
    Vaccines” (Jan. 31, 2022) available at https://covid19.nih.gov/covid-19-topics/covid-19-
    vaccines (last accessed April 28, 2022 12:44 PM ET).
    Dr. McCullough’s Declaration is perhaps better understood in context. As he explains in
    his Declaration, he has regularly testified at government hearings on COVID-19 in which he
    offers “a second opinion,” in other words, an opinion outside the scientific mainstream. ECF 14-
    3 at 2 (capitalization altered). More problematically, one court has entered a preliminary
    injunction against him for false statements (there, for continuing to claim affiliation with Baylor
    University after having been fired for spreading medical, COVID-related misinformation). See
    Order at 2, Baylor Scott & White Health v. McCullough, No. DC-21-09699 (Tex. 191st Dist. July
    29, 2021). In any event, a battery of medical authorities contest Dr. McCullough’s positions. 6
    6
    E.g., U.S. Food & Drug Administration, “Antibody (Serology) Test for COVID-19:
    Information for Patients and Consumers” (Feb. 22, 2022) available at
    https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/antibody-
    serology-testing-covid-19-information-patients-and-
    consumers?msclkid=5d865f05c73911ecb7806866c8a07d65 (last accessed April 28, 2022)
    (natural immunity); Anthony S. Fauci et al., “The Concept of Herd Immunity May Not Apply to
    COVID-19,” Journal of Infectious Diseases (Mar. 21, 2022) available at
    https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-
    article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiac109/6561438?searchresult=1&login=false (herd immunity); ECF
    22-10 Ex. A (data showing COVID-19 does not spare “extraordinarily fit” servicemembers); Ian
    Kracalik PhD MPH, CDC, “Myocarditis Outcomes Following mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination”
    (Feb. 4, 2022) available at https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2022-
    02-04/04-COVID-Kracalic-508.pdf?msclkid=4dbf327ec73b11ecb99ebe5101df2ae1 (incidence
    of myocarditis).
    23
    As such, the Court is not inclined to conclude at this early stage of the case that the military’s
    scientific and medical conclusions, which rest on the great weight of scientific authority, should
    be rejected.
    Finally, Plaintiff proposes a few inductive reasons why the vaccine mandate should fail
    for insufficiently narrow tailoring. For example, relying on the Fifth Circuit’s opinion in Navy
    Seals, the fact that the Navy has granted many medical exemptions but no religious exemptions
    should, in Plaintiff’s view, render the vaccination orders suspect. See Navy Seals, 
    2022 WL 5944375
    , *12. That reasoning misses the point that the Navy grants medical exemptions only on
    a showing of a contraindication, i.e., upon a showing that vaccination would cause more medical
    harm than it would good. In those circumstances, therefore, lack of vaccination in fact serves the
    military’s interest in maintaining the health of individual servicemembers and force readiness
    broadly. See Short, 
    2022 WL 105182
    , at *8. Plaintiff again suggests that because he has been
    able to serve without incident, he need not be vaccinated. As the Short court explained,
    however, “merely because the military has found ways to perform its duties despite the risks of
    COVID-19 does not mean it must endure these risks indefinitely when there are effective means
    of mitigating them.” Id. at *9.
    As such, and on the whole, there remain a number of questions as to whether Plaintiff can
    carry his burden to show that he is likely to succeed on his RFRA claim.
    ii. Free Exercise
    The Free Exercise Clause permits the government to enact laws that incidentally burden
    religious exercise so long as the laws are neutral and generally applicable. See, e.g., Fulton v.
    City of Philadelphia, 
    141 S. Ct. 1868
    , 1876 (2021); Emp. Div., Dep’t of Hum. Res. of Oregon v.
    
    24 Smith, 494
     U.S. 872, 879 (1990). More specifically, such laws are subject to rational basis
    review rather than strict scrutiny. Fulton, 141 S. Ct. at 1876.
    The parties dedicate most of their Free Exercise arguments to answering the initial
    inquiry of whether the vaccine mandate is both (1) neutral and (2) generally applicable. Plaintiff
    contends that because the mandate is neither neutral nor generally applicable, this Court must
    apply strict scrutiny to the mandate. Arguing to the contrary, the government holds that only
    rational basis review is appropriate here because the mandate is both neutral and generally
    applicable.
    In a normal, non-military context the Court would be required to apply the familiar Smith
    framework to determine whether a law is subject to either strict scrutiny or rational basis review.
    This case is different. This case asks the Court to wade into the murky waters where
    fundamental constitutional rights mix with the prerogatives and necessities of our nation’s
    military. While neither the government here, nor prior caselaw, commands complete deference
    to the military by the Judiciary, the Court is mindful of its role adjudicating intra-military
    disputes and accordingly will analyze the Free Exercise portion of this case in a manner
    consonant with controlling Supreme Court caselaw regarding the deference owed to the military.
    The foundational case for present purposes is Goldman v. Weinberger, 
    475 U.S. 503
    (1986), involving the Air Force’s refusal to allow an Orthodox Jewish servicemember, Goldman,
    to wear a yarmulke while on duty in accordance with his faith. 
    Id. at 504
    . There, the Court
    upheld the policy of the Air Force to forbid the wearing of headgear while indoors, finding that
    the religious rights of Goldman were outweighed by the Air Force’s legitimate need to enforce
    uniform dress regulations to further the Force’s overall mission. 
    Id.
     at 509–10. Notably, the
    Court rejected the application of the Free Exercise standard enunciated in Sherbert v. Verner,
    25
    
    374 U.S. 398
    , 406 (1963), which requires applying strict scrutiny to government laws and
    policies that substantially burden religious beliefs. Goldman, 
    475 U.S. at 506
     (“[W]e have
    repeatedly held that ‘the military is, by necessity, a specialized society separate from civilian
    society.’” (quoting Parker v. Levy, 
    417 U.S. 733
    , 743 (1974)).
    The Court emphasized that because “great deference” is owed to the “professional
    judgment of military authorities concerning the relative importance of a particular military
    interest,” courts must be cautious before intruding into the domain of the military. Id. at 507
    (“[Courts are] ill-equipped to determine the impact upon discipline that any particular intrusion
    upon military authority might have[.]” (quoting Chappell v. Wallace, 
    462 U.S. 296
    , 305 (1983)).
    Further, the Court explained:
    Our review of military regulations challenged on First Amendment
    grounds is far more deferential than constitutional review of
    similar laws or regulations designed for civilian society. The
    military need not encourage debate or tolerate protest to the extent
    that such tolerance is required of the civilian state by the First
    Amendment; to accomplish its mission the military must foster
    instinctive obedience, unity, commitment, and esprit de corps.
    
    Id.
    To be sure, the Court did not hold that the demands of the military “render essentially
    nugatory” the “guarantees of the First Amendment.” 
    Id.
     After all, in Goldman, the Court
    affirmed the D.C. Circuit’s opinion which applied a level of scrutiny that was “neither strict
    scrutiny nor rational basis.” Id. at 506. As Justice John Paul Stevens explained in his concurring
    opinion, deference to the military is appropriate where the challenged policy or rule is based on a
    “neutral, completely objective standard,” suggesting that in some contexts a different level of
    scrutiny would apply. Id. at 513 (Stevens, J., concurring).
    26
    Further, nothing in Smith suggests that the “great deference” owed to the military in cases
    involving Free Exercise claims was either changed or eliminated. In his majority opinion,
    Justice Antonin Scalia, citing Goldman, notes with approval that the Court had previously
    refused to apply the Sherbert strict scrutiny analysis in the military context. Smith, 
    494 U.S. at 884
    . Further, in her opinion concurring in the judgment, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor explains
    that there are two contexts in which the Court has “not traditionally required the government to
    justify a burden on religious conduct by articulating a compelling interest”: the military and
    prisons. See 
    id.
     at 900–01 (O’Connor, J., concurring in the judgment). That is, neither the
    military nor prisons need to satisfy strict scrutiny when a policy or rule is challenged on Free
    Exercise grounds.
    More recently, in Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Justice Samuel Alito, in his opinion
    concurring in the judgment, echoed Justice O’Connor’s Smith opinion in recognizing that the
    normal strict scrutiny analysis demanded by Sherbert is inapplicable in the military context,
    because, in that area, the “government exercise[s] broader authority over assertions of individual
    rights.” Fulton, 141 S. Ct. at 1891 (Alito, J., concurring in the judgment).
    At a minimum, these cases suggest when a member of the military challenges a
    regulation or policy of the military on Free Exercise grounds, courts should normally apply a
    level of scrutiny below that of strict scrutiny and evidently comparable to rational basis review. 7
    Accordingly, the present debate over whether the mandate is both neutral and generally
    7
    The Court recognizes that there may be certain scenarios where a military regulation is
    explicitly and facially hostile to religion or a certain religious practice such that it would
    obviously fail judicial review. In the present case, however, the Court need not determine the
    exact contours of such a scenario because there are no facts alleged to support an inference that
    the vaccine mandate has as its object an animus toward religion or is facially discriminatory
    toward religion.
    27
    applicable is largely academic because Smith’s exemption analysis is inapplicable to the military
    context.
    As other Courts have noted, Goldman has been superseded by statute insofar as RFRA
    applies to the military. The question for Plaintiff’s Free Exercise claim is not whether his RFRA
    claim succeeds, however, but rather whether Plaintiff’s Free Exercise claim is likely to succeed
    under controlling Supreme Court precedent. Even the most negative treatment of Goldman in
    cases confronting the mandates at issue here have not suggested that Goldman is not good law as
    to a Free Exercise claim. See U.S. Navy Seals 1-26, 27 F.4th at 348 n.14 (“The Navy’s
    willingness to grant hundreds of medical exemptions undermines its reliance on decisions like
    Goldman . . . .”). Evaluating Plaintiff’s Free Exercise claim under Goldman, the question is
    whether Defendants have articulated a reasoned basis for the immunological and medical
    requirement at issue. Per the Court’s RFRA discussion, Plaintiff has not shown so far a strong
    likelihood that the Government’s immunological basis for COVID vaccination is not on reasoned
    ground.
    iii. Equal Protection
    The Equal Protection Clause, like the Fifth Amendment’s implied guarantee of equal
    protection under the law, “is essentially a direction that all persons similarly situated should be
    treated alike.” City of Cleburne v. Cleburne Living Ctr., 
    473 U.S. 432
    , 439 (1985); see also
    Weinberger v. Wiesenfeld, 
    420 U.S. 636
    , 638 n.2 (1975) (“This Court’s approach to Fifth
    Amendment equal protection claims has always been precisely the same as to equal protection
    claims under the Fifth Amendment.”). 8 While the “general rule is that legislation is presumed to
    8
    Although the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection is longstanding, at least one
    Justice of the Supreme Court has concluded that there is no such guarantee therein. See United
    States v. Vaello Madero, 596 U.S. ___ (2022) (Thomas, J., concurring).
    28
    be valid and will be sustained if the classification drawn by the statute is rationally related to a
    legitimate state interest,” that “general rule gives way, however, when a statute” distinguishes
    among certain suspect classifications or burdens the exercise of a fundamental Constitutional
    right. Cleburne, 
    473 U.S. at 440
    . When a law or governmental action falls into the latter
    category, such “laws are subjected to strict scrutiny and will be sustained only if they are suitably
    tailored to serve a compelling state interest.” 
    Id.
    In the context of alleged religious discrimination, a plaintiff can make out an Equal
    Protection claim either by showing that a law violates the Free Exercise Clause and treats him
    less favorably than other similarly situated individuals or that the law involves a religious
    classification, 9 i.e. singles out religion for unequal treatment. 10 An individual is similarly-
    situated to others “if they are alike in ‘all relevant respects’—not all respects.” Ashaheed v.
    Currington, 
    7 F.4th 1236
    , 1251 (10th Cir. 2021) (citations omitted); accord Bench Billboard Co.
    v. City of Cincinnati, 
    675 F.3d 974
    , 987 (6th Cir. 2012) (“In determining whether individuals are
    ‘similarly situated,’ a court should not demand exact correlation, but should instead seek relevant
    similarity.”) (internal quotation marks omitted); Barrington Cove Ltd. P’ship v. R.I. Hous. &
    Mortg. Fin. Corp., 
    246 F.3d 1
    , 8 (1st Cir. 2001) (“Exact correlation is neither likely nor
    necessary, but the cases must be fair congeners.”).
    9
    Religion is a suspect classification. See United States v. Batchelder, 
    442 U.S. 114
    , 125 n. 9
    (1979) (“The Equal Protection Clause prohibits selective enforcement based on an unjustifiable
    standard such as race, religion, or other arbitrary classification.” (quotation omitted)); City of
    New Orleans v. Dukes, 
    427 U.S. 297
    , 303 (1976) (per curiam) (listing religion as an example of
    an “inherently suspect distinction [ ]”).
    10
    In the latter case of a law involving a suspect classification based on religion, such a law
    always or nearly always necessarily fails to be neutral and generally applicable, thereby running
    afoul of the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment unless the government can satisfy the
    exacting strict scrutiny test. Accordingly, because either route to establishing an Equal
    Protection Claim based on religious discrimination requires a demonstration of a Free Exercise
    violation, it follows that failure to prove such a violation necessarily forecloses an Equal
    Protection Claim.
    29
    Plaintiff’s Equal Protection claim is essentially a rephrasing of his Free Exercise and
    RFRA claims. The deficiencies in Plaintiff’s RFRA claim, discussed above in subsection b(i),
    leave the Court concerned that Plaintiff has not satisfied his burden to show likelihood of success
    on his Equal Protection Claim either. See Prince v. Massachusetts, 
    321 U.S. 158
    , (1944) (“In so
    ruling we dispose also of appellant’s argument founded upon denial of equal protection. It falls
    with that based on denial of religious freedom, since in this instance the one is but another
    phrasing of the other.”); see also Fields v. City of Tulsa, 
    753 F.3d 1000
    , 1012 (10th Cir. 2014)
    (“[Appellant] asserts an equal-protection claim premised on the violation of his fundamental
    right to the free exercise of religion. In the district court and on appeal, however, he has not
    distinguished this claim from his free-exercise claim, never devoting more than a page to the
    claim in any pleading.”).
    Moreover, serious questions remain as to whether the Navy’s vaccine requirements treat
    Plaintiff worse than those similarly situated to him. Servicemembers granted a medical or
    administrative exemption are not similar in “all relevant respects” to those seeking religious
    exemptions. Although it is true that all three groups—religious, medical, and administrative
    exemption requesters—share the common fact that they all either requested or are eligible for an
    exemption, that commonality alone does not prove that they are similarly situated. Unlike
    Plaintiff, those with medical exemptions have certain medical conditions such that receiving the
    COVID-19 vaccine would cause them physical harm not worth the benefits the vaccine provides,
    thereby creating deleterious effects on the integrity and combat effectiveness of the military and
    undermining the very rationale for the mandate in the first place. Similarly, those with
    administrative exemptions are readily distinguishable from religious objectors considering that
    administrative exemptions are granted to servicemembers who are dead, imprisoned, prisoners of
    30
    war, exiting military service, or somehow in a position where vaccination is, in all practical
    respects, impossible. As such, Plaintiff does not appear to have carried his burden on his Equal
    Protection claim.
    c. Irreparable Harm
    The Court next considers whether Plaintiff has demonstrated “irreparable harm.”
    CityFed Fin. Corp. v. Office of Thrift Supervision, 
    58 F.3d 738
    , 747 (D.C. Cir. 1995). To
    constitute “irreparable harm,” the injury alleged must be both “certain and great, actual and not
    theoretical, beyond remediation, and of such imminence that there is a clear and present need for
    equitable relief.” Mexichem Specialty Resins, Inc. v. EPA, 
    787 F.3d 544
    , 555 (D.C. Cir. 2015)
    (cleaned up). A mere “possibility of irreparable harm” is not enough; a plaintiff must
    demonstrate that the alleged injury is “likely in the absence of a injunction.” Winter v. Nat’l Res.
    Def. Council, Inc., 
    555 U.S. 7
    , 22 (2008) (cleaned up).
    The Court is concerned that Plaintiff has not carried his burden to show that the injuries
    he fears are either not irreparable or not likely to occur absent preliminary relief. Take Plaintiff’s
    most concerning worry––the prospect of court martial. See Repl. at 18. It appears from the
    present record that court martial is insufficiently likely to qualify as irreparable harm for the
    purposes of the proposed preliminary injunction. The first Navy order mandating vaccination
    against COVID-19, NAVADMIN 190/21, “withheld” authority for initiating “courts-martial”
    “until further notice.” ECF 22-5 at 2. The second, NAVADMIN 225/21, empowers only the
    Deputy Chief of Naval Operations in his discretion to commence a court-martial for refusing
    COVID-19 vaccination. Plaintiff is correct that the ultimate denial of Plaintiff’s request warns
    that continued refusal “is punishable under the Uniform Code of Military Justice,” i.e., subject to
    31
    court martial, but there is no other indication in the record that the Deputy Chief of Naval
    Operations will elect sometime in the future to commence a court martial against Plaintiff.
    Plaintiff’s other concerns are likely more reparable than separation or court martial. For
    example, Plaintiff fears “loss of pay and benefits.” As this Court held in Church, loss of pay and
    benefits is not, as a matter of law, irreparable harm. 
    2021 WL 5179215
     at *15 (citing Sampson
    v. Murray, 
    415 U.S. 61
    , 92 n.68 (1974) (loss of employment is not irreparable harm except in a
    “genuinely extraordinary situation”)); accord Short, 
    2022 WL 1051852
    , at *9. Plaintiffs other
    alleged harms are purely reputational: “an adverse fitness report, initiation of adverse separation
    proceedings, [and] removal from the Navy SEALs.” All three are definitionally reparable. An
    adverse fitness report may be purged from Plaintiff’s files, adverse separation proceedings may
    be dissolved, and Plaintiff may be reassigned to the Navy SEALs. Short, 
    2022 WL 1051852
    , at
    *9 (citing Hartikka v. United States, 754 1516, 1518 (9th Cir. 1985) (“loss of income, loss of
    retirement and relocation pay, and damage to [the plaintiff’s] reputation resulting from the
    stigma attaching to less than honorable discharge” are not irreparable injuries)). 11 Indeed,
    reassignment is definitionally reparable. See Church, 
    2021 WL 5179215
    , at *15; Fraternal
    Order of Pol. Library of Congress Labor Cmte. v. Library of Congress, 
    639 F. Supp. 2d 20
    , 24
    (D.D.C. 2009).
    11
    For the proposition that reputational harm is irreparable injury as a matter of law, Plaintiff
    cites this Court’s holding in Doe v. Trump, 
    275 F. Supp. 3d 167
     (D.D.C. 2017) rev’d on
    irrelevant grounds sub nom. Doe v. Shanahan, 755 F. App’x 19 (D.C. Cir. 2019). In that case,
    the Court concluded that two transgender servicemembers were likely to succeed on the merits of
    their claim that their discharge from the military because of their gender identity violated the
    Fifth Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection under the law. Id. at 215. The Court
    concluded that the reputational harm concomitant with discharge qualified as irreparable harm
    because, in part, discharge was based on “‘a criterion which has no ability on [their] ability to do
    [their] job[s].’” Id. at 216 (quoting Elzie v. Aspin, 
    841 F. Supp. 439
    , 443 (D.D.C. 1993)). Here,
    on the other hand, Plaintiff faces no risk of discharge (on this record, at least), and Defendants
    seek to discharge Plaintiff on the grounds that he is medically unfit to do his job.
    32
    That leaves the Court with Plaintiff’s final alleged harm: momentary deprivation of a
    constitutional right. “It has long been established that the loss of constitutional freedoms, ‘for
    even minimal periods of time, unquestionably constitute irreparable injury.’” Mills v. District of
    Columbia, 
    571 F.3d 1304
    , 1312 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (quoting Elrod v. Burns, 
    427 U.S. 347
    , 373
    (1976)). Accordingly, to demonstrate that particular irreparable harm, Plaintiff must “show a
    likelihood of success on the merits.” See Archdiocese of Wash. v. Wash. Metro. Area Transit
    Auth., 
    897 F.3d 314
    , 334 (D.C. Cir. 2018). A likelihood of success on Plaintiff’s RFRA claim
    will not do, however, as RFRA provides only a statutory right. See 
    id.
     (holding “the deprivation
    of constitutional rights constitutes irreparably injury only to the extent such deprivation is shown
    to be likely” (emphasis added)). As the Court explained in subsection B(b)(ii) above, the present
    record suggests why Plaintiff might not have shown that it is likely the Free Exercise Clause
    provides Plaintiff a right to forgo COVID-19 vaccination. Even assuming so arguendo, Plaintiff
    must nevertheless demonstrate that any adverse action for his refusal strips him of such a right.
    It is not at all clear that is so. Consider, for example, the Supreme Court’s recent decision
    in Tandon v. Newsom, 
    141 S. Ct. 1294
     (2021). There, the Supreme Court held that closure of
    places of worship, when treated differently from secular businesses, is necessarily irreparable
    injury because individuals cannot worship. See id. at 1297. That holding echoed at least five
    Justices’ conclusion in S. Bay that the state of “California’s prohibition on singing and chanting
    during indoor services” to stem the spread of COVID-19 constitutes irreparable harm to the
    extent it treats church services differently from a “Hollywood studio.” 
    141 S. Ct. 716
    , 717
    (Barrett, J., concurring). In both these cases, government action actually prevented an
    individual’s religious exercise. Here, however, no government actor is preventing Plaintiff from
    exercising his alleged religious conviction against COVID-19 vaccination. Plaintiff remains free
    33
    to depart the military, and if Plaintiff attends religious services, he remains free to do so.
    The Ninth Circuit reached a very similar result in Doe v. San Diego Unified Sch. Dist., 
    19 F.4th 1173
     (2021). In that case, a student challenged a public school’s vaccination requirement
    on religious grounds. Id. at 1180. Contrasting that challenge with Tandon, the court explained
    that “in those [church closure] cases, the plaintiffs were literally prevented from exercising their
    religion in group settings. Here, in contrast, [the plaintiff] may exercise her religion by declining
    to receive the vaccination.” Id. at 1181 (citation omitted). The Court went on to explain that the
    record did not establish that the “burden” on her religious exercise would be irreparable. Id. For
    similar reasons, the record does not appear to establish that the alleged burden here would be
    irreparable. See also Short, 
    2022 WL 1051852
    , at *8 (“Because Major Short may continue to
    ‘exercise his religion by declining to receive the vaccination,’ [applying Doe], he has not
    suffered an irreparable injury under Ninth Circuit law.” (citation omitted)).
    d. Public Interest
    “The final two factors the Court must consider when deciding whether to grant a
    preliminary injunction are the balance of harms and the public interest.” Sierra Club v. U.S.
    Army Corps of Eng’rs, 
    990 F. Supp. 2d 9
    , 41 (D.D.C. 2013). Where, as here, the government is
    a party to the litigation, these two factors merge and are “one and the same, because the
    government’s interest is the public’s interest.” Pursuing Am.’s Greatness v. FEC, 
    831 F.3d 500
    ,
    511 (D.C. Cir. 2016). “Although allowing challenged conduct to persist certainly may be
    harmful to a plaintiff and the public, harm can also flow from enjoining an activity, and the
    public may benefit most from permitting it to continue.” Sierra Club, 990 F. Supp. 2d at 41.
    Therefore, when “balanc[ing] the competing claims of injury,” the Court must “consider the
    effect on each party of the granting or withholding of the requested relief.” Winter v. Nat’l Res.
    34
    Def. Council, Inc., 
    555 U.S. 7
    , 24 (2008). On the present record, and like in Church, the public’s
    interest in military readiness and the military’s interest in Plaintiff’s health outweigh Plaintiff’s
    religious liberty interest.
    That is not to say Plaintiff’s religious liberty interest is not weighty. Free exercise is
    always weighty. “For centuries now, people have come to this country from every corner of the
    world to share in the blessing of religious freedom. Our Constitution promises that they may
    worship in their own way, without fear of penalty or danger, and that in itself is a momentous
    offering.” Town of Greece, N.Y. v. Galloway, 
    572 U.S. 565
    , 615 (2014) (Kagan, J., dissenting).
    Religious liberty is woven into the constitutional fabric of our country. It forms the bedrock for
    the principles of toleration and mutual respect that are at the heart of American liberalism.
    Nevertheless, consistent with history, text, and tradition, religious liberty begins to fade at the
    edge of Naval waters where a citizen has answered this country’s most august call of duty.
    When an American exchanges suit and tie for fatigues, it is not just the ultimate sacrifice he
    faces. He willingly gives much else to ensure the freedoms we mere civilians hold too dear to
    join him. Happily rare is the case that shows the severity of service. Yet, on the present record,
    this case is one.
    IV.    CONCLUSION
    An appropriate order accompanies this memorandum opinion.
    Dated: April 29, 2022
    /s/
    COLLEEN KOLLAR-KOTELLY
    United States District Judge
    35