Missouri Public Service Commission v. Union Electric Company, D/B/A Ameren Missouri ( 2016 )


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  •                             MISSOURI COURT OF APPEALS
    WESTERN DISTRICT
    MISSOURI PUBLIC SERVICE                          )
    COMMISSION,                                      )     WD79406
    )
    Respondent,                 )     OPINION FILED:
    v.                                            )
    )     December 6, 2016
    UNION ELECTRIC COMPANY,                          )
    D/B/A AMEREN MISSOURI,                           )
    )
    Appellant.                  )
    APPEAL FROM THE
    PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION
    Before Division One:
    Anthony Rex Gabbert, P.J., Thomas H. Newton, and Alok Ahuja, JJ.
    Union Electric Co. d/b/a Ameren Missouri (Ameren or Ameren Missouri)
    appeals a Missouri Public Service Commission order granting Staff’s motion for
    summary         determination      and    denying        Ameren’s   cross-motion      for   summary
    determination. The ruling arose from a Staff complaint alleging that Ameren had
    violated the Commission’s Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act (MEEIA) 1 rules
    by using stale “avoided costs” data to calculate Ameren’s performance-incentive award
    under an approved demand-side program investment mechanism (DSIM). At issue is
    whether the Commission’s interpretation of the term “methodology” as used in 4 C.S.R.
    1
    Section 393.1075. All statutory references are to RSMo Cum. Supp. 2010, unless otherwise indicated.
    1
    § 240-20.093(1) (F) 2 was reasonable. Ameren contends that “methodology” simply
    encompasses the formula used to calculate its avoided costs.              The Commission
    concluded that “methodology” encompasses both the formula and a prescribed data set
    used in the formula to make that calculation. Also at issue is whether it was reasonable
    for the Commission to subject Ameren’s DSIM performance-incentive award to that
    regulation. We affirm.
    Factual and Procedural Background
    1. Missouri’s Energy-Conservation Statute
    The Missouri Legislature enacted MEEIA in 2009 to encourage utilities to
    conduct programs that “modify the net consumption of electricity on the retail
    consumer’s side of the electric meter.” § 393.1075.2(3). Recogni zing that lowered
    energy consumption would affect a utility’s revenue and profits, the Legislature stated,
    “It shall be the policy of the state to value demand-side investments equal to traditional
    investments in supply and delivery infrastructure and allow recovery of all reasonable
    and prudent costs of delivering cost-effective demand-side programs.” § 393.1075.3.
    As part of its plan for MEEIA’s implementation and to give utilities incentives to adopt
    demand-side programs, the Legislature allowed the Commission to “develop cost
    recovery mechanisms to further encourage investments in demand-side programs
    including, in combination and without limitation: . . . allowing the utility to retain a
    portion of the net benefits of a demand-side program for its shareholders.”             §
    393.1075.5. Following notice-and-comment rulemaking, the Commission finalized its
    MEEIA implementing regulations in February 2011, and this Court upheld the
    2
    M O . C ODE R EGS . A NN . tit. 4, §240-20.093(1)(F) (2011).
    2
    Commission’s four orders of rulemaking in State ex rel. Pub. Counsel v. Pub. Serv.
    Comm'n, 
    397 S.W.3d 441
    (Mo. App. W.D. 2013), including the rule at issue here. 3
    Under the Commission’s rules, a utility’s DSIM may include the “(4) [r]ecovery of lost
    revenues; and (5) [u]tility incentive[s] based on the achieved performance level of
    approved demand-side programs.” 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(M). How the latter were
    to be calculated under Ameren’s approved demand-side program is at issue in this
    litigation.
    2. Dispute Overview
    As discussed in more detail below, while the Commission’s rulemaking was on
    appeal before this Court, Ameren’s plan to adopt demand-side programs for its
    customers was approved by the Commission as modified by the parties.                               Two
    documents from the approval process are key to understanding this dispute: Ameren’s
    DSIM plan, which would, among other matters, allow the utility to recover both lost
    revenues and a performance incentive, and the modification of that plan negotiated by
    the parties. The modification adopted the DSIM plan with certain changes, and the
    3
    Section 240-20.093 of 4 C.S.R., which involves the establishment and operation of DSIMs that “allow
    periodic rate adjustments related to recovery of costs and utility incentives for investments in demand -
    side programs,” states in relevant part,
    Avoided cost or avoided utility cost means the cost savings obtained by substituting
    demand-side programs for existing and new supply-side resources. Avoided costs
    include avoided utility costs resulting from demand -side programs’ energy savings and
    demand savings associated with generation, transmission, and distribution facilities
    including avoided probable environmental compliance costs. The utility shall use the
    same methodology used in its most recently-adopted [sic] preferred resource plan to
    calculate its avoided costs.
    4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(F). Thus, while customers pay less because they use less energy, a separate
    line item on their utility bills adds an amount —a DSIM rate—representing, among other matters,
    “‘[u]tility incentive[s] based on the achieved performance level of approved demand-side programs.’”
    4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(M). See State ex rel. Pub. Counsel v. Pub. Serv. Comm’n, 
    397 S.W.3d 441
    ,
    446 (Mo. App. W.D. 2013). Utilities receive a portion of net -shared benefits, which consist of
    estimated avoided costs less the costs of running a demand-side program. 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(C).
    3
    nature and extent of those changes are at issue here, along with how the regulations we
    upheld intersect with those changes.
    Ameren submitted the same underlying data to its independent evaluators to
    calculate two different plan components, the TD-NSB (or throughput-disincentive net
    shared benefits, i.e., lost revenues) and the performance incentive, at the end of the
    three-year program cycle to “true up” the additional DSIM charges that ratepayers had
    been making under the programs. Commission Staff objected to the data used for the
    performance-incentive calculation, and the Commission agreed that, under the plan,
    the modification, and the regulations, Ameren was required to use different, more
    recent data to calculate the avoided costs underlying the performance incentive. While
    the actual dollar amount of the difference between a performance incentive calculated
    using “stale” and “updated” avoided-cost data has not been specified on appeal, Staff
    counsel noted during argument before the Commission that the performance -incentive
    component of Ameren’s DSIM represented about 7 percent of the total that the utility
    could recover under MEEIA as an inducement to adopt demand-side programs,
    assuming that the plan achieved 100 percent of its energy-saving goals.
    “Avoided costs” include those investments that utilities would have made under
    a traditional supply-side program, such as new energy generation and transmission
    facilities and the costs of complying with environmental regulations to build these
    facilities. Shareholders receive a return on those investments in the rates charged to
    customers, which rates also include the costs of the energy used. Increased capacity
    and increased demand result in both higher revenues and better investment returns.
    When customers adopt, under a demand-side program, conservation measures that
    4
    lower the revenues which utilities receive due to decreased demand, investment in
    additional supply-side facilities from which utility shareholders can earn a return are
    no longer required.    Under MEEIA, as an incentive to encourage the adoption of
    conservation measures, utilities implementing approved demand -side programs can
    charge their customers an additional fee representing a share of both the revenues that
    are lost and the foregone investments in new generating capacity.           Under the
    regulations, these foregone investments are calculated as part of the p erformance-
    incentive component of a DSIM and are reduced by the utilities’ costs of implementing
    the programs (these are recovered in other ways under a DSIM); they are also pegged
    to the numbers of conservation measures actually adopted and the amount of energy
    saved. At issue here is whether a measure of the energy saved for purposes of the
    performance-incentive award includes an updated estimate of actual energy costs over
    the life of a demand-side program. If so, when such costs rise, shareholders have the
    potential to recover more under a demand-side program, because customers have saved
    more money by decreasing energy usage; when they fall, the shareholder recovery will
    be decreased because customers have saved less money despite decreasing energy
    usage.
    3. Ameren’s Plan and Modifications
    Ameren filed a three-year demand-side program with the Commission in January
    2012 (MEEIA 1 Plan), while the case challenging MEEIA’s implementing regulations
    5
    was pending on appeal. 4 The program was based on the utility’s “2013-2015 Energy
    Efficiency Plan” report (report), which was submitted with Ameren’s application and
    included a DSIM. Ameren’s MEEIA 1 Plan was not adopted as filed, but was modified
    under a July 2012 “Unanimous Stipulation and Agreement Resolving Ameren
    Missouri’s MEEIA Filing” (stipulation).                The Commission approved the modified
    MEEIA 1 Plan (modified plan) in an August 2012 order.
    The stipulation that the Commission approved states that the DSIM described in
    Ameren’s report was to be adopted “[s]ubject to the terms and conditions contained
    herein” and as “modified to reflect the terms and conditions herein.” Three lengthy
    stipulation paragraphs specifically address and modify Ameren’s recovery of TD -NSB,
    including how this component was to be calculated, and the utility’s performance
    incentive. Nothing in the plan as modified by the stipulation expressly indicates how
    the performance-incentive award is to be calculated other than that it was to be a
    percentage of certain net shared benefits set forth in an appendix. The regulations
    define a utility incentive in terms of annual net shared benefits. 4 C.S.R. § 240 -
    20.093(1)(EE).      They further define “annual net shared benefits” as “the utility’s
    avoided costs measured and documented through evaluation, measurement, and
    verification (EM&V) reports for approved demand-side programs less the sum of the
    programs’ costs. . . .” 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(C) (emphasis added). Avoided costs
    4
    Among the points brought by the utilities (Ameren and Kansas City Power & Light Co.) and the
    Office of Public Counsel were challenges to the Commission’s definition of “lost revenue” and whether
    it had the statutory authority to allow single -issue ratemaking and rate adjustments outside of general
    rate case proceedings. State ex rel. Pub. 
    Counsel, 397 S.W.3d at 450
    , 454. We decided the case after
    the Commission approved the DSIM subject to the present appeal. Because we agreed that rate
    adjustments could be made outside of general rate case proceedings, Ameren was able to include
    adjustments for lost revenues and its pe rformance incentive by means of “riders” under its plan and the
    modification.
    6
    are defined as “the cost savings obtained by substituting dema nd-side programs for
    existing and new supply-side resources.” 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(F). These cost
    savings include “avoided utility costs resulting from demand -side programs’ energy
    savings and demand savings associated with generation, transmission, and distribution
    facilities including avoidable environmental compliance costs.” 
    Id. Ameren’s MEEIA
    1 Plan report contains an extensive discussion of the
    “Throughput Disincentive” (TD) that was approved as modified by the stipulation.
    According to Ameren’s report, “the throughput disincentive is about how the reduction
    in sales volumes impacts the revenues collected by the utility.” During argument before
    the Commission, Staff counsel stated that the TD-NSB was used in Ameren’s DSIM as
    a substitute for the “lost revenue” that may be recovered under MEEIA and that Staff
    did not challenge Ameren’s use of deemed (or “stale”) avoided-cost values in
    calculating TD-NSB. 5 TD-NSB is not a term used or defined anywhere in MEEIA or
    in its implementing regulations. And under the regulations, its apparent equivalent—
    lost revenue—is not defined in terms of net shared benefits or avoided costs.
    The stipulation specifically provides that for purposes of determining Ameren’s
    final recovery for its TD-NSB, the software used in calculating NSB for the MEEIA 1
    Plan would be re-run using only:
    (i) the actual number of energy efficiency measures (by type) installed in
    each month up to that point, (ii) the actual program costs in each month
    incurred up to that point; and (iii) for Commercial and Industrial Custom
    measures for which the TRM [Technical Resource Manual] does not
    provide a deemed value, savings determined according to the protocol
    provided for at pages 85 to 98 of the TRM.
    5
    In fact, Ameren’s TD-NSB calculation used the same stale avoided costs that Staff challenged in the
    context of the utility’s performance incentive.
    7
    Further, the stipulation provided that “EM&V [Evaluation, Measurement, and
    Verification] shall not be utilized to calculate the actual NSB for the purposes of
    determining Ameren Missouri’s TD-NSB Share.” In contrast, when discussing the
    performance-incentive component, the stipulation does not state how it will be
    calculated but requires that “[a]ctual net energy savings for each program year will be
    determined through the EM&V.”
    The TD-NSB part of the stipulation, including how it will be calculated, accords
    in many respects with a report table—Table 2.12, “Description of Update Process”—
    listing “the items associated with estimating net benefits and whether those items will
    be updated for purposes of assessing performance and benefits as part of the
    implementation process.” This table addresses “the mechanics of sharing net benefits”
    as part of implementing the DSIM’s “program expense tracker,” which under the
    MEEIA regulations is linked to the “cost recovery of demand-side program costs” and
    not to a utility’s incentive award. 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(M)(2). Items on the list
    represent data that will be used to calculate whether the company makes progress on
    its goal of saving a specified number of kilowatt hours of energy “at the meter.” On
    this list is the item “Avoided Costs,” which has a red “X” instead of a green “√”in the
    “Update?” box beside the phrase, as well as the following description: “The avoided
    energy, capacity, and T&D [transmission & distribution] values are deemed.” Text
    above the table states, “Notice that several items will not be updated, so the focus
    remains on the cost of the programs and the number of measures implemented.”
    Neither the table nor the text refers to the performance -incentive award.
    8
    While the stipulation is otherwise silent as to the chart appeari ng in Ameren’s
    report, it further includes a paragraph describing the variances granted to Ameren to
    the extent that the stipulation’s terms and conditions are inconsistent with Commission
    rules. The rule at issue here, with the contested term “methodolog y” and the use of the
    most recently filed IRP methodology to calculate avoided costs for the performance
    incentive, is not among any of the granted rule variances.          As modified by the
    stipulation, Ameren’s performance incentive was to be recovered “[a]fter the
    conclusion of the three-year Plan period,” which explains why the Commission granted
    a number of variances that address the performance incentive but only within the
    context of “timing of recovery” and of “calculation.”
    4. Final Recovery Under Ameren’s DSIM
    Ameren filed an integrated resource plan (IRP), as required by Chapter 22 rules,
    in 2014, or the first time that an IRP had been filed since the utility calculated avoided
    costs for purposes of submitting its MEEIA 1 Plan to the Commission. The IRP
    included updated avoided-cost data, reflecting changes in the cost of energy since the
    prior IRP had been filed. Ameren then provided data to its EM&V contractors to
    calculate 2014 net shared benefits for use in determining its performance -incentive
    award over the life of its 2013-2015 demand-side program. Unlike the IRP, however,
    the data Ameren submitted to its contractors to calculate the avoided costs for the
    performance incentive had not been updated from its MEEIA 1 Plan submission. The
    EM&V evaluators filed Ameren’s final DSIM reports in May 2015. In June 2015,
    Commission Staff filed a complaint, alleging that Ameren had failed to comply with 4
    C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(F) by not providing “its independent evaluation, measurement
    9
    and verification contractors [EM&V contractors] with the most recent avoided cost
    information needed for the calculation of the portion of annual net shared benefits that
    are to be awarded to [Ameren] as a performance incentive” under its DSIM for the
    2014 program year. 6 Ameren admitted that it had not given its EM&V contractors the
    avoided-cost data used in its most recently adopted IRP. Ameren contended, however,
    that it had performed its obligations under the stipulation approved by the Commission
    because its approved modified plan did not require avoided costs to be updated for the
    performance-incentive award. Ameren also argued that the rule requiring a utility to
    use “the same methodology used in its most recently-adopted [sic] preferred resource
    plan [IRP] to calculate its avoided costs” under its DSIM does not require the use of
    the updated avoided-cost data included in the avoided-cost calculations for its most
    recently adopted IRP. 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(F) (emphasis added). 7
    5. The Commission’s Ruling
    The Commission heard oral argument on Staff’s complaint following briefing
    and issued an order in November 2015 granting Staff’s motion for summary
    determination and denying Ameren’s motion for summary determination. As part of
    its findings of fact, the Commission explained what avoided costs are and summarized
    the dispute this way:
    Avoided costs are an estimate of future costs over at least a 20-year
    period. At the time Ameren Missouri’s DSIM was created, that estimate
    of avoided costs was based on the methodology used in the preferred
    resource plan set forth in Ameren Missouri’s MEEIA 1 Plan. Ameren
    6
    The Missouri Department of Economic Development – Division of Energy sought leave to late file
    an application to intervene, and the Commission granted the application. While the intervenor
    participated in the summary determination hearing, it has not appealed t he Commission’s order.
    7
    Under Chapter 22 of our Code of State Regulations, a “preferred resource plan” is part of a utility’s
    “integrated resource plan” or IRP and refers to the utility’s long -range supply and demand forecasts
    conducted under the Commission’s resource pla nning rules.
    10
    Missouri made its next Chapter 22 Electric Utility Resource Planning
    Rules triennial IRP filing in 2014. For the 2014 IRP filing, the formula
    used in the methodology did not change, but the numbers plugged into the
    formula used to estimate avoided costs did change. As a result, the
    estimate of avoided costs also changed [due to significant drops in market
    prices for energy].
    EM&V, as performed by Ameren Missouri’s contractors, does not
    calculate or otherwise determine the avoided costs used to calculate net
    shared benefits. Instead, the avoided cost estimates are provided to the
    EM&V contractors by Ameren Missouri. When Ameren Missouri
    provided the estimate of avoided costs to its independent EM&V
    contractors for program year 2014, it gave them the estimated avoided
    costs as calculated using the inputs from the 2012 MEEIA 1 Plan
    methodology, not the estimated avoided costs calculated using the inputs
    from the 2014 IRP methodology. Staff asked Ameren Missouri to provide
    the avoided cost estimates using the inputs from the 2014 IRP
    methodology to the EM&V contractors, but Ameren Missouri refused to
    do so, contending that the DSIM established in the 2012 stipulation and
    agreement does not require the use of updated costs estimates.
    While the Commission acknowledged that Ameren’s proposed plan did not allow the
    use of updated avoided costs estimates, it noted that the stipulation “provides for
    variances from several rules that would otherwise be inconsistent with the provisions
    of the stipulation and agreement, [and that] subsection 4 CSR 240 -20.093(1)(F) is not
    one of the rules from which a variance is provided.” Thus, the Commission ruled that
    the utility’s approved DSIM “remains subject to that regulation, and Ameren Missouri
    is required to ‘use the same methodology used in its most recently adopted preferred
    resource plan to calculate its avoided costs’” for purposes of calculating its
    performance incentive.
    The Commission determined that, in the context of rule 4 C.S.R. § 240 -
    20.093(1)(F), “methodology includes both the formula by which avoided costs are to
    be calculated and the inputs used in that formula.” According to the Commission, this
    “interpretation is consistent with the goal of the MEEIA statute, which is to encourage
    11
    the electric utility to implement energy-saving measures by protecting the utility’s
    financial interests while also protecting consumers.”      This goal, according to the
    Commission, is accomplished by connecting the company’s performance incentive “to
    how much money ratepayers actually saved as a result of the company’s MEEIA
    program.”
    Describing the function of a performance incentive under MEEIA, the
    Commission determined that the disputed rule must be interpreted as requiring the use
    of the most recently used data in calculating that incentive.       In this regard, the
    Commission stated,
    The sole purpose of a performance incentive under MEEIA is to give the
    utility an earnings opportunity that will place shareholders in a financial
    position comparable to the earnings opportunity they would have had if
    those shareholders had instead made a future supply-side investment.
    Future earnings opportunities from supply-side investments are
    dependent on the dynamic character of the energy marketplace. If energy
    and capacity market prices increase, the utility may be able to earn greater
    profits. Conversely, if those market prices drop, the utility may be able
    to earn less profit on its investment. Thus, it is appropriate that the
    calculation of the utility’s performance incentive should reflect the most
    current market price information available when avoided costs are
    calculated. That is the result obtained when the requirements of
    Commission Rule 4 CSR 240-20093(1)(F) are interpreted correctly, as
    described in Staff’s complaint.
    Ameren filed an application for rehearing and request for clarification. Intervenor
    Missouri Division of Energy also filed an application for rehearing. The Commission
    denied the requests for rehearing, but agreed with Ameren that, in making its
    calculation, “the 2014 IRP actual costs begin to apply to the calculation of net benefits
    only after the 2014 IRP was filed.” Ameren filed this appeal.
    12
    Legal Analysis
    Ameren raises three points on appeal, arguing that (1) the Commission erred and
    its order was unreasonable because it incorrectly interpreted and effectively rewrote
    the applicable rule; and its order is arbitrary and capricious and constitutes an abuse of
    discretion because (2) “the Commission relies on financial metrics calculated using
    avoided cost estimates existing when the plan was approved, but then disregards those
    avoided cost estimates in evaluating the operation of the plan that it approved”; and (3)
    its rationales “do not support the Commission’s made-up definition of the term
    ‘methodology’ as used in the MEEIA rules.”
    Under section 386.510, 8 we review a Commission order to determine whether
    the order is lawful and reasonable. Office of Pub. Counsel v. Mo. Pub. Serv. Comm'n,
    
    409 S.W.3d 371
    , 375 (Mo. banc 2013). The Commission’s order “has a presumption
    of validity, and the burden of proof is on the appellant to prove that the order is unlawful
    or unreasonable.”       
    Id. Ameren does
    not challenge the lawfulness of the order. 9
    Accordingly, our sole focus in this appeal is on whether it was reasonable.
    A Commission decision “is reasonable where the order is supported by
    substantial, competent evidence on the whole record; the decision is not arbitrary or
    capricious or where the [Commission] has not abused its discretion.” 
    Id. “We consider
    the evidence, along with all reasonable supporting inferences, in the light most
    8
    RSMo Cum. Supp. 2012.
    9
    Ameren argues that, because rule 4 C.S.R. § 240-2.117 on summary disposition is similar to Missouri
    Rule of Civil Procedure 74.04, we “must review the record in the light most favorable to the party
    against whom judgment is entered.” We disagree. Ameren has cited no case or rule, nor have we
    located any authority, applying the standard of review for a circuit -court ruling on a motion for
    summary judgment to a Commission ruling on a motion for summary determination.
    13
    favorable to the Commission’s order.” State ex rel. Pub. Counsel v. Mo. Pub. Serv.
    Comm'n, 
    289 S.W.3d 240
    , 246-47 (Mo. App. W.D. 2009). And, “where a decision
    involves the exercise of [Commission] regulatory discretion, Missouri courts have long
    recognized that the Public Service Commission Law delegates a large area of discretion
    to the [Commission] and ‘many of its decisions necessarily rest largely in the exercise
    of sound judgment.’” State ex rel. Mobile Home Estates, Inc. v. Pub. Serv. Comm'n of
    Mo., 
    921 S.W.2d 5
    , 9-10 (Mo. App. W.D. 1996) (quoting State ex rel. Dyer v. Pub. Serv.
    Comm'n, 
    341 S.W.2d 795
    , 802 (Mo. 1960), cert. denied, 
    366 U.S. 924
    (1961)). Thus,
    “the reviewing court will not substitute its judgment for that of the [Commission] on
    issues within the realm of the agency’s expertise.” 
    Id. 1. Updated
    Avoided Costs
    Ameren first argues that the Commission disregarded the terms of the MEEIA 1
    Plan it approved, because that plan specifically indicated in Table 2.12 that avoided
    costs would not be updated for purpose of calculating the DSIM’s utility -incentive
    component. Citing 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(2)(J), Ameren contends that the Commission
    was bound to the DSIM it approved. 10             We agree that the Commission was bound to
    the DSIM it approved, but we disagree that the performance-incentive calculation was
    subject to Table 2.12 in Ameren’s proposed MEEIA 1 Plan, because it appears to us
    that the table addressed the TD-NSB calculation and not the performance incentive.
    10
    This regulation states:
    If the commission approves utility incentive component of a DSIM, such utility
    incentive component shall be binding on the commission for the entire term of the
    DSIM, and such DSIM shall be binding on the electric utility for the entire term of the
    DSIM, unless otherwise ordered or conditioned by the commission when approved.
    4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(2)(J).
    14
    Even if Table 2.12 applied to the performance incentive, the modified plan that the
    Commission approved was based on a stipulation that did not grant the utility a variance
    from section 240-20.093(1)(F), which governs the calculation of the avoided costs that
    are used in determining a utility’s performance incentive, but not lost revenue (or “TD -
    NSB”). Accordingly, the Commission’s approval of the utility-incentive component
    was conditioned on Ameren’s compliance with section 240-20.093(1)(F). The record
    supports the Commission’s reasonable conclusion that the utility-incentive component
    of Ameren’s “approved demand-side program remains subject to the requirements of
    that regulation.”
    Neither MEEIA nor its implementing regulations discuss, mention, or define
    “throughput disincentive net shared benefit” (TD-NSB). MEEIA and the implementing
    regulations do, however, address “lost revenue,” narrowly defined as “only those net
    revenues lost due to energy and demand savings from utility demand -side programs
    approved by the commission. . . .” 4 C.S.R. § 240-3.163(1)(Q). This Court upheld the
    lost-revenue definition in State ex rel. Public 
    Counsel, 397 S.W.3d at 454
    , and rejected
    Ameren’s argument that the definition of “lost revenue” in Chapter 20 should be
    consistent with its definition in Chapter 22 of the regulations, finding that “the
    Commission could have reasonably concluded that the definition of lost revenue used
    in Chapter 22 to address integrated resource planning is not consistent with the
    purposes of the MEEIA.” 11 
    Id. 11 Lost
    revenue is defined in Chapter 22 as “the reduction between rate cases in billed demand (kW)
    and energy (KWh) due to installed end-use measures, multiplied by the fixed-cost margin of the
    appropriate rate component.” 4 C.S.R. § 240-22.020(36). ). Note that the Commission approved a
    lost-revenue component in Ameren’s DSIM based on “net shared benefits” with deemed avoi ded costs.
    In essence, the Commission allowed Ameren to recover lost revenue “plus,” while the lost -revenue
    definition was still under challenge. It did not, however, grant a variance as to the avoided costs
    calculation applicable under the regulations t o a utility incentive.
    15
    In the report and the modified plan to which Ameren and the Commission agreed,
    TD-NSB, the equivalent of lost revenue, is addressed separately from the performance -
    incentive component and is subject to different requirements, including how TD -NSB
    would be calculated, using deemed avoided-cost data, both annually and for purposes
    of a “true-up” at the end of the program. The report and the modified plan do not detail
    how the performance incentive is to be calculated for purposes of the EM&V annual
    reports or for trueing up.          The regulations define a DSIM utility lost-revenue
    requirement as “the revenue requirement explicitly approved (if any) by the
    commission to provide the utility with recovery of lost revenue based on the approved
    utility lost revenue component of a DSIM.” 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(R). Note that
    this definition does not base lost revenue on “net shared benefit.” So while Ameren and
    the Commission agreed that the utility could recover a component dubbed TD -NSB,
    they had to define how it would be calculated because, as a substitute for “lost
    revenue,” no regulation prescribes how a TD-NSB is to be determined for purposes of
    recovery under MEEIA. 12
    As to the performance incentive to which Ameren would be entitled under its
    DSIM, the stipulation states that, “using final Evaluation, Measurement and
    Verification (“EM&V”) results (with EM&V to be performed after each of the program
    years 1, 2 and 3), Ameren Missouri will be allowed to recover the performance
    incentive, which is a percentage of NSB [net shared benefit].” The stipulation does not
    further define how net shared benefits are calculated for purposes of the performance
    12
    The dissenting opinion fails to recognize that while Ameren’s plan and the modification refer to the
    DSIM’s lost-revenue component as TD-NSB, lost revenue is not based under the regulations on net
    shared benefits and thus would not have been subject to the avoided-costs definition or regulatory
    requirement at issue here.
    16
    incentive. But the implementing regulations do address how the performance incentive
    will be calculated, from expressly defining the incentive as “a portion of annual net
    shared benefits” and specifying the methodology that will be used to calculate NSB
    avoided costs (the same used in the utility’s most recent IRP) to defining EM&V as
    “the performance of studies and activities intended to evaluate the process of the
    utility’s program delivery and oversight and to estimate and/or verify the estimated
    actual energy and demand savings, utility lost revenues, cost effectiveness, and other
    effects from demand-side programs.”      4 C.S.R. § 240.093(1)(Q) & (V) (emphasis
    added). Further, the stipulation does not waive the requirements of 4 C.S.R. § 240-
    20.093(1)(F), which thus subjects the performance incentive, based in the regulations
    on net shared benefits, to “the same methodology used in its most recently -adopted
    preferred resource plan to calculate its avoided costs.” Lost revenue and a utility
    incentive are two discrete DSIM recovery components under the regulations, and the
    Commission’s conclusion that the utility incentive was subject to a regulation that was
    not explicitly waived by stipulation was reasonable.
    According to Ameren, by including data inputs within the meaning of
    “methodology,” the Commission has rewritten section 240-20.093(1)(F) and
    effectively substituted the word “inputs” for “methodology.”       It asserts that the
    dictionary defines “methodology” as “a particular procedure or set of procedures,” or,
    in other words, “the ‘how one goes about’ achieving something or arriving at an
    outcome or a result.” In its view, the rule includes the formula used to conduct a
    calculation, but does not include the inputs used in that formula.        Because the
    methodology, but not the avoided-cost data, which Ameren used in its 2014 IRP filing,
    17
    was the same as the methodology used in its annual DSIM report for 2014, it contends
    that under its interpretation, it complied with the rule.
    We believe that the Commission’s rejection of this interpretation of the rule was
    reasonable for the simple reason that without knowing what data sets are to be used in
    a formula, it would be impossible to use the methodology to make a calcu lation. If the
    inputs are not defined as part of the procedure, any random data could be “plugged
    into” a formula. In other words, a methodology does not include the input of any
    specific data, but of necessity it does include and must specify which part icular set of
    data will be used in the formula. Because the rule states that “[t]he utility shall use the
    same methodology used in its most recently-adopted preferred resource plan to
    calculate its avoided costs,” a utility must use the formula and data sets in its most
    recently adopted IRP as part of using “the same methodology” to calculate its avoided
    costs.     4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(F).       We do not find that the Commission’s
    understanding of section 240-20.093(1)(F) is unreasonable given the authorizing
    legislation’s goal, i.e., that a utility adopting demand-side programs be allowed to
    recover “all reasonable and prudent costs of delivering cost -effective demand-side
    programs.” § 393.1075.3. The record supports the Commission’s understanding that
    the avoided-cost calculation is a long-range projection based on probabilities and
    assumptions about a volatile energy market that can trend up or down at any point in
    time. This was, in fact, explained in affidavits filed in support of Ameren’s motion for
    summary determination. To allow a utility to use stale avoided-cost data and
    projections in calculating its performance incentive when markets are actually down,
    however, would allow the shareholders to recover a windfall rather than the reasonable
    18
    and prudent costs of delivering demand-side programs.                   The record supports the
    Commission’s conclusion that “to the greatest extent possible, the Commission
    encourages the use of actual numbers to calculate cost savings. In this case, that
    requires the use of updated estimates.”
    It also makes little sense to require a utility to use the same methodology
    underlying its most recently adopted preferred resource plan to calculate its avoided
    costs without also using the most recent data, as well as the formula, in cal culating
    those costs to recover a performance incentive. 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(F). The
    dissent does not explain what benefit can be derived from making just the DSIM
    formula used for calculating avoided costs consistent with that used in the most recently
    adopted IRP. Nor can we think of any, thus leading one to question whether this rule
    would have any particular purpose, if “methodology” is not understood as the
    Commission interpreted it. The value of updated data to calculate achieved results,
    however, cannot be overstated. A methodology with stale data inputs will not fairly
    calculate the avoided costs on the basis of which periodic rate adjustments for the
    performance-incentive component of a DSIM are allowed. 13
    Finally, Ameren argues that the Commission’s interpretation of “methodology”
    is inconsistent with the use of the same term in another MEEIA rule. That rule defines
    a DSIM’s utility-incentive component as “the methodology approved by the
    commission in a utility’s filing for demand-side program approval to allow the utility
    to receive a portion of annual net shared benefits achieved and documented through
    13
    See the stated purpose for this regulatory section: “This rule allows the establishment and operation
    of Demand-Side Programs Investment Mechanisms (DSIM), which allow periodic rate adjustments
    related to recovery of costs and utility incentives for investments in demand -side programs.” 4 C.S.R.
    § 240-20.093.
    19
    EM&V reports.” 4 C.S.R. § 240-20.093(1)(EE). According to Ameren, “methodology”
    as used here could not include 2014 updated data because this data did not exist when
    the program was approved.     Because the term “methodology” as used in this section
    does not refer to the calculation of avoided costs, as it does in t he contested rule, we
    do not believe that the Commission’s “methodology” interpretation that includes data
    sets for purposes of making a performance-incentive calculation presents any
    inconsistency or is unreasonable. Point one is denied.
    2. Consideration of Certain Factors
    Ameren next contends that the Commission’s order was unreasonable because it
    arbitrarily and capriciously failed to carefully consider certain important factors. It
    argues that the rules require a utility to submit a significant amount o f information
    when seeking demand-side program approval. Part of that information is an estimate
    of “the impact of the DSIM on customer rates over the next five years,” which estimate
    is derived from comparing the utility’s revenue requirements with and w ithout the
    proposed DSIM. A “significant part” of the “with the proposed DSIM” revenue -
    requirement analysis, according to Ameren, depends on “the net benefits to be realized
    from the plan, which in turn depend heavily on the avoided costs estimates used i n the
    plan filing.” Because the Commission approves a MEEIA plan “at a given point in
    time,” its decision is based on information then available, i.e., the avoided cost
    estimates calculated in 2012. In its view, the Commission cannot “ ‘de-approve’ a plan
    two or three years later if the avoided cost estimates developed for a later IRP go down
    as compared to the estimates that underlie the MEEIA filing, any more than does the
    20
    Commission ‘re-affirm’ the MEEIA plan as being even better if avoided cost estimates
    go up.” Thus, Ameren argues,
    [I]t simply makes no sense to evaluate the level of the incentive the utility
    is to receive arising from the energy savings that its approved demand -
    side programs are determined to have achieved, by using a totally
    different set of avoided cost estimates than was used when the utility and
    the Commission effectively decided, collectively, that the utility should
    pursue the energy efficiency programs.
    Arguing from the premise that the Commission approved a plan that did not require it
    to update avoided costs for purposes of calculating its performance incentive, Ameren
    contends that the order reached an unjust result in ignoring these considerations.
    Even if we had not already determined that the modified plan required upda ted
    avoided costs to be used in calculating the utility’s performance incentive, we do not
    believe that requiring it to use updated avoided costs constitutes a failure to consider
    important factors. A performance-incentive award, by its nature, would require that
    the original projections and estimates in an approved plan be updated to make rate
    adjustments that are based on more accurate estimates of costs expended or avoided in
    light of actual conditions over the course of the program. The Commission has not
    “de-approved” or “re-affirmed” Ameren’s modified plan.            It has applied its rule
    consistently with the statute which requires “that utility financial incentives are aligned
    with helping customers use energy more efficiently and in a manner that sustain s or
    enhances utility customers’ incentives to use energy more efficiently.”                   §
    393.1075.3(2). Where customers’ savings are less because energy costs have declined,
    their incentives to use energy more efficiently evaporate if their bills are higher becaus e
    21
    the net-shared benefit is based on higher energy prices estimated at the program’s
    inception, which price estimates have not proved accurate. This point is denied.
    3. Commission Rationale
    In the third point, Ameren argues that the Commission’s rationales do not
    support its definition of the term “methodology.” First, it contends that “whatever
    avoided cost estimates are used at whatever point in time they are used will not produce
    a determination of ‘actual savings,’” thus no one will know what was “actua lly saved.”
    This is so, because “no one knew (or knows) what those costs will actually be over the
    upcoming 20-year period, during which energy efficiency measures installed in 2014
    will continue to ‘live.’” Ameren claims that it makes no sense for the C ommission to
    have connected the utility incentive to actual savings. We disagree.
    MEEIA mandates, as a matter of policy, that demand-side programs “[p]rovide
    timely earnings opportunities associated with cost-effective measurable and verifiable
    efficiency savings.” § 393.1075.3(3). By requiring that a utility with an approved
    DSIM use updated avoided-cost data as part of its utility-incentive award calculation,
    the Commission ensures that shareholders receive “timely” earnings linked to
    “measurable and verifiable efficiency savings.” According to Ameren’s senior manager
    of corporate analysis, avoided costs “are based upon national and sometimes
    international market information for items such as gas, coal, electric energy and
    capacity, capital markets, and economic drivers.” They include estimates of avoided
    energy, capacity, and transmission and distribution costs. Ameren determines avoided
    energy costs by establishing ranges of values for variables and addressing best guesses
    as to uncertain factors as follows:
    22
    [B]y modeling the electric grid (the Eastern Interconnection in the United
    States), including all demand and available generation, using ranges of
    values for key driver variables, or “critical uncertain factors” that are
    likely to affect the market price of electric energy. Ranges of values and
    subjective probabilities for critical uncertain factors are defined through
    extensive discussion, review and analysis with subject matter experts.
    Probabilities for different values are also determined as part of this
    process. The value ranges and probabilities for the various critical
    uncertain factors are then combined to create scenarios represented by
    various combinations of values of critical uncertain factors with a
    commensurate probability. These scenarios are then simulated with a
    dispatch model of the Eastern Interconnection, yielding hourly estimates
    for energy prices for each year of the planning horizon, typically 20 years.
    The utility similarly determines avoided capacity and transmission and
    distribution costs by making certain best estimates, comparisons, interpolations,
    adjustments, and evaluations, and concludes that “[a]voided costs are a prediction; an
    estimate, made over a very long period of time.” The Commission understood the
    tentative nature of these estimates and concluded that requiring that they be updated so
    that “the calculation of the utility’s performance incentive [w]ould reflect the most
    current market price information available when avoided costs are calcu lated,” best
    met Ameren’s obligations under MEEIA and its implementing regulations. We defer to
    its expertise and find that its rationale was not arbitrary and capricious and did not
    constitute an abuse of discretion.
    Ameren also contends that the Commission’s stated rationale of “protecting the
    utility’s financial interests while also protecting customers” is a made -up goal that
    appears nowhere in the MEEIA statute.          The utility further complains that the
    Commission has changed “the rules of the game in the middle of it, by changing
    avoided cost estimates as the term of the programs proceed.” Ameren characterizes the
    23
    Commission’s replacing different avoided-costs estimates for those in place when the
    utility’s DSIM is approved as “an ‘energy and capacity cost lottery.’”
    We agree with the Commission that the Legislature intended to protect both
    shareholder and customer interests by (1) allowing the recovery of “all reasonable and
    prudent costs of delivering cost-effective demand-side programs,” (2) requiring that
    the Commission “[e]nsure that utility financial incentives are aligned with helping
    customers use energy more efficiently and in a manner that sustains or enhances utility
    customers’ incentives to use energy more efficiently,” and (3) associating “timely
    earnings opportunities” with “verifiable efficiency savings.”                       § 393.1075.3.
    Accordingly, the Commission did not make up a goal and did not err in relying on this
    rationale to support its interpretation of the word “methodology.” 14
    Regarding Ameren’s allegation that the Commission changed the rules of the
    game thereby effecting a lottery, even if we assume that the Commission’s
    interpretation of “methodology” represented a change, because imposing an incentive
    award is similar in some respects to setting a rate, “the Commission is not bound to
    any set methodology in ensuring a just and reasonable return in setting rates.” State ex
    rel. Praxair, Inc. v. Pub. Serv. Comm'n, 
    328 S.W.3d 329
    , 339 (Mo. App. W.D. 2010).
    “The Commission has considerable discretion in rate setting due to the inherent
    complexities involved in the rate setting process. It is not the theory or methodology,
    but the impact of the rate order which counts.” 
    Id. (citations omitted).
    Indeed, “[i]f
    the total effect of the rate order cannot be said to be unjust and unreasonable, judicial
    14
    Note that the Commission’s interpretation will also best protect the utility’s shareholders who will
    reap the benefit by collecting a higher performance incentive from ratepayers during those periods
    when energy prices spike. Commission counsel agreed during oral argument that this would be the
    case under its interpretation.
    24
    inquiry under the Act is at an end. Where ratemaking is at issue, determinations by the
    Commission are favored by a presumption of validity.” 
    Id. (citations omitted).
    We
    cannot say that a Commission order requiring that Ameren use updated avoided costs
    in calculating net-shared benefits to determine the utility’s performance incentive is
    unjust or unreasonable.       Likening future earnings opportunities from supply -side
    investments, which “are dependent on the dynamic character of the energy
    marketplace,” to earnings opportunities from demand-side investments is wholly
    consistent with the Legislature’s policy of valuing “demand-side investments equal to
    traditional investments in supply and delivery infrastructure.” § 393.1075.3. Because
    the performance-incentive award here represents 7 percent of the total that Ameren
    could recover for adopting a demand-side program, assuming 100 percent of its energy
    savings goals were realized, we cannot say that the total effect of the Commission’s
    ruling would be unjust and unreasonable. This point is denied.
    Conclusion
    The Commission’s order granting Staff’s motion for summary determination and
    requiring that Ameren use the avoided-cost data from its 2014 IRP in calculating the
    incentive award under its modified MEEIA plan in 2014 was supported by substantial,
    competent evidence on the whole record and was accordingly reasonable. 15 We affirm.
    /s/ THOMAS H. NEWTON
    Thomas H. Newton, Judge
    Thomas H. Newton, Judge, writes for the majority. Anthony R. Gabbert, Presiding
    Judge, concurs with the majority.
    Alok Ahuja, Judge, writes a dissent.
    15
    The dissenting opinion makes assumptions about the meaning of the stipulation that adopted a
    modified DSIM plan without granting a variance from § 240-20.093(1)(F). We do not believe that
    such assumptions are justified in light of the deference we are required to accord the Commissio n.
    25
    IN THE MISSOURI COURT OF APPEALS
    WESTERN DISTRICT
    MISSOURI PUBLIC SERVICE       )
    COMMISSION,                   )
    Respondent, )
    )
    v.                            )                WD79406
    )
    UNION ELECTRIC COMPANY        )                F ILED : December 6, 2016
    d/b/a AMEREN MISSOURI,        )
    Appellant. )
    DISSENTING OPINION
    Under its Commission-approved energy-efficiency program, Ameren is entitled
    to receive, as a performance incentive, a percentage of the “net shared benefits”
    generated by the energy-efficiency measures which are implemented. The dispute in
    this case involves the manner in which “net shared benefits” are calculated. The
    Commission held that, in calculating net shared benefits, Ameren is required to
    employ updated estimates of the costs which are avoided due to decreased electri city
    consumption. Ameren argues that the Commission erred, because its Commission -
    approved Energy Efficiency Plan specifies that the avoided cost estimates would not
    be updated during the Plan’s three-year life.
    I respectfully dissent from the majority’s affirmance of the Commission
    decision. The Energy Efficiency Plan which Ameren submitted to the Commission
    for approval in 2012 makes absolutely clear that, for purposes of calculating its
    1
    performance incentive, Ameren would not be required to update its avoided cost
    estimates during the Plan’s three-year life. Although the majority disputes that
    Ameren’s Plan addressed the calculation of the performance incentive, the
    Commission found that it did, and the parties conceded the p oint. The Unanimous
    Stipulation which led to the Commission’s approval of the Plan did not address – and
    therefore did not modify – this aspect of Ameren’s Plan. And the regulation cited by
    the Commission and the majority opinion does not alter this outc ome, because that
    rule does not require a utility to employ the same avoided cost estimates contained in
    a later preferred resource plan.
    Once the Commission approved the performance incentive mechanism
    contained in the Plan and Stipulation, it was bound by the terms of that Plan. The
    Commission cannot “change the rules of the game” midway through Ameren’s
    implementation of the Plan.
    The record does not reflect the specific financial consequences of the parties’
    dispute. In the complaint which commenced this proceeding, however, the
    Commission’s staff alleged that the issue “is worth millions of dollars to [Ameren’s]
    ratepayers.” Presumably Ameren and its shareholders face the identical financial
    impact.
    I.
    Understanding the specific issue Ameren raises requires a review of the
    Missouri statutes and rules which govern an electric utility’s implementation of an
    energy-efficiency program.
    2
    The Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act is codified at § 393.1075. 1
    The Act declares that “[i]t shall be the policy of the state to value demand-side
    investments equal to traditional investments in supply and delivery infrastructure and
    allow recovery of all reasonable and prudent costs of delivering cost -effective
    demand-side programs.” § 393.1075.3. A “demand-side program” is defined as “any
    program conducted by the utility to modify the net consumption of electricity on the
    retail customer’s side of the electric meter, including but not limited to energy
    efficiency measures, load management, demand response, and interruptible or
    curtailable load.” § 393.1075.2(3). While “demand-side programs” are intended to
    reduce electricity consumption, “supply-side programs” increase the supply of
    electricity (such as by increasing a utility’s generating capacity).
    Demand-side programs do not fit neatly within the traditional electric utility
    ratemaking model. Traditionally, an electric utility’s rates are designed to permit the
    utility to recover its prudently-incurred fixed and marginal costs, as well as a return
    on investment, through usage-based charges. As a general proposition, a utility’s
    revenues, and its profits, increase if its customers use more electricity.
    Demand-side investments operate in a fundamentally different way. The goal
    of demand-side programs is to reduce customer demand for the utility’s product:
    electricity. To the extent a utility’s rates are set using the traditional model, its
    revenues – and profits – will go down if a demand-side program is successful, since
    the utility will collect its per-unit rates on a smaller quantity of electricity consumed.
    Thus, under the traditional ratemaking model, a utility may have a disincentive to
    1
    Statutory citations refer to the 2000 edition of the Revised Statutes of Missouri, as updated
    through the most recent cumulative and non-cumulative supplements.
    3
    aggressively implement demand-side energy-efficiency programs. A fundamental
    purpose of the Act is to make demand-side investments as attractive to utilities as
    supply-side investments, with the goal of reducing overall electricity consumption.
    In order to “level the playing field” between demand-side and supply-side
    investments, the Act authorizes the Commission to “develop cost recovery
    mechanisms to further encourage investments in demand-side programs including . . .
    allowing the utility to retain a portion of the net benefits of a demand -side program
    for its shareholders.” § 393.1075.5.
    The Commission has adopted detailed regulations to implement the Act. See
    § 393.1075.11 (grant of rulemaking authority); State ex rel. Pub. Counsel v. Pub.
    Serv. Comm’n, 
    397 S.W.3d 441
    (Mo. App. W.D. 2013) (rejecting challenges to the
    Commission’s implementing regulations). As relevant here, the regulations authorize
    utilities to seek Commission approval of a “[d]emand-side programs investment
    mechanism, or DSIM.” Rules 3.163(1)(F), 20.093(1)(M). 2 The regulations provide
    that a DSIM is “a mechanism . . . to encourage investments in demand-side
    programs,” and may include “[r]ecovery of lost revenues” resulting from decreased
    electricity consumption, and a “[u]tility incentive based on the achieved performance
    level of approved demand-side programs.” 
    Id. The utility
    incentive component is
    implemented through a “DSIM utility incentive revenue requirement,” which is
    designed “to provide the utility with a portion of annual net shared benefits based on
    2
    Rule citations refer to the Commission’s regulations implementing the Act, which are found
    in Title 4 of the Code of State Regulations, Division 240 ( i.e., 4 C.S.R. 240). Several of the relevant
    definitions appear in multiple rules.
    4
    the approved utility incentive component of a DSIM.” Rules 3.163(1)(J),
    20.093(1)(Q).
    This case concerns the manner in which “annual net shared benefits” are to be
    calculated. That calculation will materially affect the performance incentive Ameren
    receives for successful implementation of its Energy Efficiency Plan. The regulations
    define “[a]nnual net shared benefits” to mean:
    the utility’s avoided costs measured and documented through evaluation,
    measurement, and verification (EM&V) reports for approved demand-
    side programs less the sum of the programs’ costs including design,
    administration, delivery, end-use measures, incentives, EM&V, utility
    market potential studies, and technical resource manual on an annual
    basis.
    Rules 3.163(1)(A), 20.093(1)(C). “Avoided cost” is in turn defined to mean:
    the cost savings obtained by substituting demand-side programs for
    existing and new supply-side resources. Avoided costs include avoided
    utility costs resulting from demand-side programs’ energy savings and
    demand savings associated with generation, transmission, and
    distribution facilities including avoided probable environmental
    compliance costs. The utility shall use the same methodology used in
    its most recently adopted preferred resource plan to calculate its
    avoided costs.
    Rules 3.163(1)(C), 20.093(1)(F).
    The performance incentive which a utility is entitled to receive for
    implementing energy-efficiency programs is analogous to the return on investment
    which it would receive for implementing supply-side programs. The terms of the
    performance incentive undoubtedly affect a utility’s decision making in numerous
    ways, including decisions concerning the resources it devotes to demand -side versus
    supply-side programs. The Commission’s rules recognize this reliance interest by
    providing that, upon Commission approval, the utility incentive component becomes
    binding on both the Commission and the utility:
    5
    If the commission approves [the] utility incentive component of a
    DSIM, such utility incentive component shall be binding on the
    commission for the entire term of the DSIM, and such DSIM shall be
    binding on the electric utility for the entire term of the DSIM, unless
    otherwise ordered or conditioned by the commission when approved.
    Rule 20.093(2)(J).
    II.
    A.
    Ameren submitted its 2013-2015 Energy Efficiency Plan to the Commission
    for approval on January 20, 2012. The Plan unambiguously provides that Ameren
    would not be required to update its avoided cost estimates in calculating its
    performance incentive.
    The Plan contained Ameren’s proposal for a demand-side programs investment
    mechanism or DSIM, having “two main components: direct program cost recovery
    and a sharing of net benefits to remove economic disincentives and provide timely
    earnings opportunities.” The Plan explained that the sharing of net benefits was
    intended to address
    two main issues: removal of the throughput disincentive and providing
    an earnings opportunity equivalent to a supply-side alternative.
    Removing the throughput disincentive simply makes the utility whole
    for the revenues it would have collected absent the implementation of its
    energy efficiency programs whereas the earnings opportunity
    compensates for the foregone earning opportunities associated with
    supply-side investments.
    The Plan explained the “throughput disincentive” in this way:
    The implementation of energy efficiency programs causes a
    decrease in electricity sales, which causes the utility to lose revenue
    that it would have otherwise collected. But even more importantly, it
    prevents the utility from recovering a portion of its fixed costs. . . . To
    fully align utility incentives such that the utility can partner with
    third party energy efficiency or conservation efforts, the throughput
    disincentive must be adequately addressed.
    6
    In addition to eliminating the throughput disincentive, the Plan also ex plained
    the need to compensate Ameren for the lost earnings opportunities associated with
    foregone supply-side investments:
    Sharing a portion of net benefits to cover the aforementioned
    decline in net income only removes the disincentive associated with
    energy efficiency. But without some way to match the earnings
    potential of supply-side projects, the utility will continue to favor
    investments in energy infrastructure projects. . . . Ameren Missouri’s
    2011 [Integrated Resource Plan] . . . called for the construction of a
    combined cycle plant to be completed in 2029. Therefore, if Ameren
    Missouri engaged in energy efficiency it would forfeit the potential
    equity earnings associated with that construction investment. In order
    for energy efficiency investments to be on an equivalent economic
    footing, the earnings opportunities must be equivalent.
    Thus, Ameren proposed that it be entitled to a share of net shared benefits to
    compensate it for two separate disincentives associated with demand-side programs:
    (1) the throughput disincentive (representing lost revenues from foregone electricity
    sales); and (2) the loss of earnings opportunities which are associated with supply -
    side investments (which would be compensated by a “performance incentive”). The
    Plan proposed that each of these disincentives be addressed by permitting Ameren to
    retain a separate specified percentage of net shared benefits.
    Ameren estimated that the present value of the total net benefits which would
    be achieved by implementing its Energy Efficiency Plan would be $364.3 million. It
    estimated that the present value of three years’ of lost net income associated with
    decreased electricity consumption (i.e., the throughput disincentive) was $56 million,
    and that the present value of the performance incentive necessary to compensate for
    lost earnings opportunities was $17 million. Ameren therefore proposed a total net
    benefit sharing percentage of 20.2% (assuming that it achieved 100% of the Plan’s
    7
    performance targets), which would entitle it to retain a portion of the program’s net
    benefits having a total present value of $73 million.
    Determining net shared benefits, and Ameren’s share of those benefits, requires
    consideration of a number of factors. First, total energy savings must be determined
    based on the number and kind of energy-efficiency measures actually implemented by
    Ameren’s customers, and applying a per-measure energy saving amount associated
    with each different measure. Once total energy savings are determined in megawatt
    hours, the energy savings must be converted into a dollar figure using an estimate of
    the avoided costs associated with that reduced electricity usage (including avoided
    costs of energy production, energy transmission and distribution, and environmental
    compliance). The total avoided costs must then be compared with the costs of
    implementing Ameren’s energy-efficiency program, to determine the net monetary
    benefit of the energy-efficiency program. That net monetary benefit, which includes
    avoided costs over a multiple-year period, must be reduced to present value using a
    discount rate. Finally, under the Plan Ameren’s sharing percentage varies depending
    on its performance (in terms of total energy savings) compared to a goal stated in the
    Plan. The Plan specified that Ameren’s performance goal would be adjusted based on
    the number of customers who opted out of the energy-efficiency program. Therefore,
    it would be necessary to determine the actual number of opt -outs before the amount
    of Ameren’s share of net shared benefits could be determined.
    Ameren’s Energy Efficiency Plan clearly provides – contrary to the
    Commission’s decision – that the estimates of avoided costs due to decreased energy
    8
    consumption would not be updated during the life of the Plan as part of the
    calculation of Ameren’s performance incentive. The Plan explains:
    [T]he mechanics of sharing net benefits need to be precisely defined.
    Table 2.12 shows the items associated with estimating net benefits and
    whether those items will be updated for purposes of assessing
    performance and benefits as part of the implementation process.
    Notice that several items will not be updated, so the focus remains on
    the cost of the programs and the number of measures implemented.
    The TRM [Technical Resource Manual] provides significant value in
    simplifying this process as several important inputs are deemed.
    Table 2.12 Description of Update Process
    (Emphasis added.)
    As if Table 2.12 and the discussion above it were not clear enough,
    immediately below the table the Plan reiterates that only three items will be updated
    before determining Ameren’s incentive payment: (1) the number of energy -efficiency
    measures actually implemented; (2) the costs of the energy-efficiency program; and
    (3) the percentage of customers who opted out of the program. The Plan explains that
    “when the final performance is judged, the MWh target shall be increased or
    9
    decreased according to how the opt-out magnitude actually compared to the planning
    estimate.” The Plan continues:
    Once the three year plan implementation is complete, Ameren
    Missouri will update its DSMore model with the evaluated number of
    measures implemented and the final program costs. With that updated
    analysis the final value for net benefits will be calculated an d the
    sharing percentage applied.
    Thus, under Ameren’s Plan, only three of the values needed to calculate its
    performance incentive would be updated based on actual experience: the number of
    energy-efficiency measures actually implemented; the costs of implementing the
    energy-efficiency program; and the number of customers who opted out of the
    program. The Plan states in no uncertain terms that other variables – including the
    avoided cost estimates – would remain unchanged throughout the Plan’s three-year
    life.
    B.
    The majority opinion concludes that Table 2.12 and the related discussion in
    Ameren’s Energy Efficiency Plan are irrelevant here. The majority denies “that the
    performance-incentive calculation was subject to Table 2.12 in Ameren’s proposed
    MEEIA 1 Plan,” and instead concludes “that the table addressed the [‘throughput
    disincentive’ or] TD-NSB calculation and not the performance incentive.” Maj. Op.
    at 14.
    The majority’s claim that Ameren’s Plan did not address the manner in which
    the performance incentive would be calculated is plainly incorrect, and is remarkable
    from a number of perspectives.
    10
    1.     First, the majority’s reading of Ameren’s Energy Efficiency Plan is
    directly contrary to the Commission’s own reading of the Plan. The Commissio n
    Report and Order expressly recognized that, under the Plan, Ameren was correct that
    it need not update its avoided cost estimates for purposes of calculating net shared
    benefits. The Commission expressly found that “the DSIM as proposed by Ameren
    Missouri in its 2012 MEEIA filing, specifically, subsection 2.6 and Table 2.12 of that
    filing, does not allow for the use of updated avoided cost estimates.” (Emphasis
    added.) Although the Commission went on to hold that the terms of the Plan were
    subject to the Commission regulations defining “avoided cost,” it conceded that
    Ameren would prevail under the Plan itself. The majority offers no justification for
    rejecting the Commission’s reading of Ameren’s Plan.
    2.     Equally significant, the Commission has not argued in this appeal that
    Ameren’s Plan did not address the calculation of the performance incentive. Instead,
    as in its Report and Order, the Commission has contended in this Court that the Plan
    does not constitute the “last word” concerning calculation of the performance
    incentive, but is instead subject to the definition of “avoided cost” found in Rules
    3.163(1)(C) and 20.093(1)(F).
    In its appellate briefing, Ameren relied heavily on the terms of its Energy
    Efficiency Plan, and on Table 2.12 in particular, to argue that it was not bound to
    update its avoided cost estimates when calculating the performance incentive. If the
    Commission believed that the Plan did not address the performance incentive
    calculation, presumably it would have said so. It is telling that the Commission
    failed to make the argument on which the majority opinion now relies so heavily.
    11
    3.     To my knowledge, no party to this proceeding has advocated the
    majority’s reading of Ameren’s Plan. Before the Commission, both the Commission
    Staff and the Office of Public Counsel conceded that, under Table 2.12, Ameren
    would not be required to update its avoided cost estimates when calculating its
    performance incentive. During oral argument before the Commission, Ameren’s
    counsel described Table 2.12. The following exchange then occurred:
    MR. LOWERY [Ameren counsel]: Okay. So if we stop here, I
    think that – if this was the only source of information and we didn't
    have a stipulation that might or might not modify this table, then I
    think that Staff and OPC would both agree we wouldn't be here today,
    there would be no complaint, they would agree that’s what you
    approved, you don't update avoided costs, period. But I agree –
    CHAIR HALL: Let me – let me cut to the chase. Do you guys
    agree with that statement?
    MR. THOMPSON [Staff counsel]: Could you repeat the
    statement, so I –
    MR. LOWERY: If we –
    MR. THOMPSON: – can make sure I understand it?
    MR. LOWERY: – imagine that we filed the MEEIA plan and the
    Commission just approved it, said –
    MR. THOMPSON: Approved it –
    MR. LOWERY: – approved.
    MR. THOMPSON: – as filed?
    MR. LOWERY: Approved it as filed.
    MR. THOMPSON: Right.
    MR. LOWERY: In that case I think you would agree that we
    wouldn't be here today.
    MR. THOMPSON: I agree.
    MR. OPITZ [Office of Public Counsel]: I agree.
    (Emphasis added.)
    12
    Although Staff counsel later clarified that the Plan would still be subject to the
    Commission’s rules defining “avoided cost,” the essential point remains: both the
    Commission’s Staff, and the Office of Public Counsel, agreed with Ameren (and with
    the Commission) that Table 2.12 specifies that avoided cost estimates would not be
    updated for purposes of calculating the performance incentive. The majority reaches
    a different conclusion, with no attempt to explain why it adopts a different reading of
    the Plan than all of the interested parties.
    4.     The majority’s claim that Table 2.12 does not address the calculation of
    the performance incentive disregards the Plan’s clear terms. The Plan mak es clear
    that the sharing percentages which Ameren proposed for both the performance
    incentive, and to address the throughput disincentive, would operate on the same
    underlying number: net shared benefits. Ameren’s Plan advocated a 15.4% share of
    net shared benefits to address the throughput disincentive, and a 4.8% share as a
    performance incentive. The Plan then combined the two sharing percentages into a
    single 20.2% share, explaining that “[t]he overall Performance Mechanism must both
    offset the financial disincentive and provide equivalent earning opportunities to
    supply-side alternatives.”
    Obviously, the separate percentage shares Ameren advocated to address the
    throughput disincentive, and as a performance incentive, could not be combined
    unless both percentages operated on the same underlying amount. But the majority
    opinion contends that, under Ameren’s Plan, the throughput disincentive sharing
    percentage and the performance incentive percentage would be applied to “net shared
    benefits” which were calculated in two different ways. If the majority were correct,
    13
    the Plan’s addition of the two percentages together would have constituted a basic
    arithmetical mistake.
    The text surrounding Table 2.12 makes clear that the table is intended to
    address the variables which will be applied in calculating both the throughput
    disincentive share, and the performance incentive share. The combined sharing
    percentages which Ameren proposed, at different performance levels, are depicted
    graphically in Figure 2.6 of the Plan. Immediately below Table 2.12 – which the
    majority contends is relevant only to calculation of the throughput disincentive share
    – the Plan states that “Figure 2.6 shows the sharing percentages that are applicable at
    different performance levels.” Figure 2.6, however, contains sharing percentages that
    combine the throughput disincentive share and the performance incentive share.
    5.     Finally, the majority’s contention that Ameren’s Plan “do[es] not detail
    how the performance incentive is to be calculated,” Maj. Op. at 16, creates a
    fundamental problem: how then are net shared benefits to be determined for purposes
    of calculating Ameren’s performance incentive? The majority suggests that the
    Commission’s regulations, standing alone, provide sufficient detail. But the
    regulations the majority cites do not address all of the issues which Ameren’s Plan
    indicates are necessary to determine net shared benefits. Given that no party has
    argued that the Commission’s regulations alone provide sufficient information to
    calculate net shared benefits, I fail to see how the majority can so confidently assert
    that Ameren’s Plan (and the Unanimous Stipulation) are irrelevant to that calculation.
    14
    III.
    As explained in § II above, the Commission correctly found (contrary to the
    majority opinion) that Ameren’s Energy Efficiency Plan, and specifically Table 2.12,
    provided that Ameren would not be required to update its avoided cost estimates
    when calculating the performance incentive. Nothing in the Unanimous Stipul ation
    alters the plain and unambiguous statements in Ameren’s Plan that avoided cost
    estimates would not be updated.
    The Unanimous Stipulation begins by making clear that the parties agreed that
    Ameren’s Energy Efficiency Plan should be approved, subject t o the modifications
    contained in the Stipulation itself.
    4.     Approval of Plan. Subject to the terms and conditions
    contained herein, the Signatories agree that Ameren Missouri’s demand -
    side program plan should be approved. For purposes of this Stipulation,
    Ameren Missouri’s three-year demand-side program plan (the “Plan”)
    consists of the 11 demand-side programs (“MEEIA Programs”)
    described in Ameren Missouri’s January 20, 2012 MEEIA Report, the
    demand-side programs investment mechanism (“DSIM”) described in
    the MEEIA Report, modified to reflect the terms and conditions herein,
    and the Technical Resource Manual (“TRM”) attached as Appendix A to
    the surrebuttal testimony of Ameren Missouri witness Richard A.
    Voytas.
    Therefore, except as modified by the Unanimous Stipulation itself, the parties
    recommended that Ameren’s Plan be approved.
    The Unanimous Stipulation provides that “Ameren Missouri will be allowed to
    recover the performance incentive, which is a percentage of [net shared benefits or]
    NSB as described on Appendix B.” Notably, the performance incentive discussion in
    the Unanimous Stipulation describes the use of only two actual, updated figures to
    calculate net shared benefits: (1) the section refers to a determination of actual net
    15
    energy savings as determined through the Evaluation, Measurement and Verification
    (“EM&V”) process; and (2) use of the actual number of customer opt-outs.
    Similarly, Appendix B to the Unanimous Stipulation, addressing the performance
    incentive calculation, states that “[a]ctual net benefits are based on actual program
    costs for the three-year MEEIA plan and the actual net MWh savings as determined
    by EM&V.” The Unanimous Stipulation’s discussion of the performance incentive
    makes no reference to any other element of the net shared benefits calculation, and
    expresses no intent to modify any other aspect of the Plan’s discussion of net shared
    benefits and the performance incentive. Instead – and consistent with Table 2.12 –
    the Stipulation refers to the use of actual, updated figures only with respect to
    (1) Ameren’s energy-efficiency program costs; (2) the determination of actual energy
    savings (based on the number of energy-efficiency measures actually implemented);
    and (3) the number of customers who opted out of the energy-efficiency program. 3
    The majority opinion itself acknowledges that “[n]othing in . . . the stipulation
    expressly indicates how the performance-incentive award is to be calculated other
    than that it was to be a percentage of certain net shared benefits set forth in an
    appendix.” Maj. Op. at 6. The consequence is that, since the Unanimous Stipulation
    did not modify the statement in Ameren’s Plan that avoided cost estimates would not
    3
    The Commission claims in its Brief that “ Ameren’s performance incentive is described
    exclusively by the 2012 Stipulation.” That is simply inaccurate. The Unanimous Stipulation does
    not discuss a variety of factors which would be necessary to calculate net shared benefits (such as
    applicable discount rates, or the performance attributes of various energy -efficiency measures). The
    Unanimous Stipulation cannot be interpreted as a “stand -alone” discussion of the performance
    incentive, without reference to Ameren’s Plan. The Unanimous Stipulation itself states that it is not
    a stand-alone description of Ameren’s DSIM, but instead that the DSIM is “described in the MEEIA
    Report, modified to reflect the terms and conditions herein.”
    16
    be updated in calculating net shared benefits, the terms of the Plan continue to
    govern.
    Although it is not our task to evaluate the wisdom of the Commission’s
    actions, it is worth noting that there are plausible reasons supporting the
    Commission’s approval of the net shared benefits calculation described in Ameren’s
    Plan and in the Unanimous Stipulation. As both the Plan and the Unanimous
    Stipulation explain, the principal values which will vary based on actual program
    implementation are (1) the number of energy-efficiency measures actually
    implemented, and (2) the amount of Ameren’s program costs. These two items are, to
    a substantial degree, within Ameren’s control, and they constitute a reasonable
    measure of the quality of Ameren’s performance. It seems sensible that the amount
    of Ameren’s performance incentive would be based, to a significant degree, on its
    success in implementing energy-efficiency measures, and its success in controlling
    the program’s costs. The avoided cost estimates, on the other hand, may vary over
    time based on a host of extraneous factors over which Ameren has no contr ol, such as
    the performance of national or international capital and energy markets. Holding
    avoided cost estimates constant over the life of the energy-efficiency program, for the
    purpose of calculating Ameren’s performance incentive, is a perfectly rati onal
    approach.
    IV.
    The Commission’s order, and the majority opinion, support the use of updated
    avoided cost estimates by referring to Rule 20.093(1)(F), which states that “[t]he
    utility shall use the same methodology used in its most recently adopted pre ferred
    17
    resource plan to calculate its avoided costs.” (The identical language appears in Rule
    3.163(1)(C).) The reference to use of “the same methodology” in Rule 20.093(1)(F)
    cannot justify the Commission’s decision.
    The Commission’s order concludes that, “in the context of [Rule 20.093(1)(F)],
    methodology includes both the formula by which avoided costs are to be calculated
    and the inputs used in that formula.” (Emphasis added.) As Ameren points out,
    however, the Commission’s interpretation of the word “methodology” is inconsistent
    with dictionary definitions of the term. A “methodology” is defined as “the
    processes, techniques, or approaches employed in the solution of a problem or in
    doing something: a particular procedure or set of procedures.” W EBSTER ’ S T HIRD
    N EW I NTERNATIONAL D ICTIONARY at 1423 (1993). Under this definition,
    “methodology” refers to the formula or process for calculating avoided costs, not the
    specific numerical values inserted into that formula or process to perform a
    calculation. It is undisputed that Ameren used the same methodology (in the sense of
    the same process) in calculating its avoided cost estimates for purposes of its Energy
    Efficiency Plan, as it used in connection with its 2014 preferred resource plan.
    Nothing in Rule 20.093(1)(F) requires that the avoided cost estimates be updated
    when Ameren adopts a new preferred resource plan.
    The Commission’s current reading of Rule 20.093(1)(F) essentially rewrites it.
    Instead of requiring that Ameren “use the same methodology used in its most recently
    adopted preferred resource plan to calculate its avoided costs,” the Commission now
    reads Rule 20.093(1)(F) to require that Ameren “use the same avoided cost estimates
    used in its most recently adopted preferred resource plan.” But that is not what the
    18
    rule says, and the Commission should not be permitted to rewrite the rule after -the-
    fact. 4
    In addition, the Commission’s construction of the word “methodology” in Rule
    20.093(1)(F) is inconsistent with the use of the very same word in another relevant
    Commission rule – Rule 20.093(1)(EE). Recall that, under the Commission’s rules,
    “[i]f the commission approves [the] utility incentive component of a DSIM, such
    utility incentive component shall be binding on the commission for the entire term of
    the DSIM.” Rule 20.093(2)(J). Therefore, the Commission is bound by the “utility
    incentive component” of Ameren’s approved Demand-Side Investment Mechanism or
    DSIM. What is the “utility incentive component” by which the Commission is
    bound? Rule 20.093(1)(EE) supplies the answer: the “utility incentive component”
    “means the methodology approved by the commission in a utility’s filing for demand-
    side program approval to allow the utility to receive a p ortion of annual net shared
    benefits achieved and documented through EM&V reports.” (Emphasis added.)
    Therefore, under Rules 20.093(1)(EE) and 20.093(2)(J), the Commission is
    bound by “the methodology” it approved “to allow [Ameren] to receive a portion o f
    annual net shared benefits” as a performance incentive. Under the definition of
    4
    Notably, when the Commission’s Chair stated during oral argument before the Commission
    that Staff’s argument essentially rewrote Rule 20.093(1)(F) to require that “the utility shall use the
    same avoided costs used in its most recently adopted preferred resource plan,” Staff counsel agreed:
    “I think that’s the effect of the rule.” Staff was even more explicit in its briefing to the Commission.
    It argued:
    The word ‘methodology’ as used in the rule necessarily encompasses the formula, the
    inputs, and the results of the calculation. What Rule 4 CSR 240-20.093.1(F) requires
    is that the avoided costs from AmMo’s most recently adopted preferred resource
    plan be used in calculating NSB for the purposes of the [performance incentive].
    (Emphasis added.) Staff’s arguments – which the Commission adopted – go well beyond the
    language of a rule which merely requires that Ameren use a particu lar “methodology . . . to calculate
    its avoided costs.”
    19
    “methodology” adopted in the Commission’s order, the Commission approved – and
    is bound by – “both the formula by which [Ameren’s portion of net shared benefits]
    are to be calculated and the inputs used in that formula.” Under that reading, the
    Commission would be bound by the avoided cost estimates contained in Ameren’s
    Energy Efficiency Plan, because those avoided cost estimates are an essential input in
    determining Ameren’s share of net shared benefits. This reading would create a
    conflict with Rule 20.093(1)(F), however, because the latter rule says that the
    Commission is not bound by “the methodology” approved as part of Ameren’s DSIM,
    but instead that “the methodology” contained in Ameren’s most recent preferred
    resource plan must be used to calculate avoided costs.
    This conundrum can be avoided by interpreting the word “methodology”
    consistent with the dictionary definition – as the process or formula employed to
    calculate avoided costs, not the inputs inserted into that formula as part of a
    particular calculation. The Commission cannot “have it both ways,” and interpret the
    word “methodology” differently under Rules 20.093(1)(F) and 20.093(1)(EE).
    The majority dismisses the use of the term “methodology” in Rule
    20.093(1)(EE) with the statement that it “does not refer to the calculation of avoided
    costs.” Maj. Op. at 20. But avoided cost estimates are an essential component in the
    calculation of net shared benefits, which is in turn an essential component in
    determining Ameren’s performance incentive amount. The “methodology” to which
    Rule 20.093(1)(EE) refers would plainly include a determination of the relevant
    avoided cost estimates (as Table 2.12 to Ameren’s Plan makes clear).
    20
    Besides the fact that it is inconsistent with the dictionary, and with the use of
    the term “methodology” in another regulation, the Commission’s – and the majority’s
    – interpretation of the word “methodology” in Rule 20.093(1)(F) also leads t o an
    absurd outcome. If the Commission’s current order is correct, and the reference to
    “methodology” in Rule 20.093(1)(F) “includes both the formula by which avoided
    costs are to be calculated and the inputs used in that formula,” then the Commission
    in 2012 approved a DSIM which on its face conflicted with the Commission’s own
    regulations, in two significant respects. First, Ameren’s Energy Efficiency Plan
    employed avoided cost estimates which were different than the avoided cost estimates
    contained in its most recent preferred resource plan (filed in 2011), although the
    avoided cost estimates incorporated into the Plan were derived using the same
    process used in connection with the 2011 preferred resource plan. The Plan
    specifically advised the Commission that “[t]he avoided energy costs [used in the
    Plan] represent an update to the [Integrated Resource Plan] planning scenarios,” and
    provided the Commission with “a description of those updates.” 5 Those avoided cost
    estimates were used, among other things, to determine the cost-effectiveness of
    Ameren’s proposed energy-efficiency program, and to determine the likely impact of
    the energy-efficiency program on customer rates. If the Commission’s current
    interpretation of Rule 20.093(1)(F) were correct, Ameren violated the rule in 2012
    when it used new avoided cost estimates developed specifically for use in conjunction
    5
    Notably, the Commission itself acknowledges in its Brief that “ the methodology Ameren used
    to calculate avoided costs of energy for its 2012 MEEIA request is not identical to the avoided costs
    as determined in Ameren’s 2011 IRP filing.” The Commission’s Staff made the same concession
    during argument before the Commission: “the avoided costs that Ameren used in its MEEIA plan
    were already a change from the 2011 IRP.” These admissions are curious, since they essentially
    acknowledge that Ameren’s 2012 Plan – which the Commission approved – violated the
    Commission’s current interpretation of Rule 20.093(1)(F).
    21
    with its Energy Efficiency Plan, rather than the avoided cost estimates from its 2011
    preferred resource plan. Yet, no one objected to the avoided cost estimates Ameren
    used in connection with Plan approval in 2012.
    Second, as explained in §§ II above, Ameren’s Energy Efficiency Plan
    unambiguously provides that Ameren’s avoided cost estimates would be “deemed” for
    the purpose of calculating net shared benefits, and that those avoided cost estimates
    would not be updated during the three-year life of the Plan. Yet, according to the
    Commission’s current interpretation of Rule 20.093(1)(F), use of unchanging avoided
    cost estimates is prohibited. On that interpretation, the explicit references in the Plan
    to the use of unchanging, “deemed” avoided cost estimates were patently unlawful at
    the time the Plan was submitted. But the Commission’s Staff expressly advocated the
    approval of this performance incentive mechanism, and the Commission approved it.
    We should hesitate to adopt a reading of Rule 20.093(1)(F) which renders the
    Commission’s 2012 approval of Ameren’s Plan a nullity in any material respect.
    The majority also seizes on the fact that the Unanimous Stipulation did not
    give Ameren a variance from Rule 20.093(1)(F). But there was no need for a
    variance, if Rule 20.093(1)(F)’s reference to “the same methodology” is properly
    interpreted. If properly interpreted, the rule is fully consiste nt with using unchanging
    avoided cost estimates throughout the three-year term of the DSIM. But even if the
    Commission’s current interpretation of Rule 20.093(1)(F) were correct, I would hold
    that the Commission granted Ameren a variance from that rule wh en it approved
    Ameren’s DSIM. With respect to regulatory variances, the Commission’s rules
    simply provide that, “[u]pon request and for good cause shown, the commission may
    22
    grant a variance from any provision of this rule.” Rule 20.093(13). The rule doe s not
    require that variances take any particular form.
    Here, as I have described in detail above, Ameren sought approval of a
    Demand-Side Programs Investment Mechanism which expressly provided that
    avoided cost estimates would remain constant throughout the life of the DSIM, and
    which employed avoided cost estimates different from those appearing in Ameren’s
    most-recent preferred resource plan. The Commission’s Staff did not object to the
    avoided costs estimates Ameren used in seeking Plan approval, or to the Plan’s
    specification that the avoided cost estimates would remain unchanged throughout
    program implementation; indeed, Staff itself requested that the Commission approve
    Ameren’s Plan as modified by the Stipulation. The Commission then approved the
    Plan in the form submitted. In these circumstances, if the express terms of the Plan
    are deemed to conflict with Rule 20.093(1)(F), I would hold that the Commission
    granted a variance from the Rule’s requirements when it approved the Plan as
    modified by the Stipulation. Notably, the majority itself essentially acknowledges
    that the Commission gave Ameren an unstated regulatory variance, since it
    acknowledges that the throughput disincentive share which the Commission
    approved, to compensate Ameren for lost revenues, is inconsistent with the definition
    of “lost revenue” contained in the Commission’s own Rules 3.163(1)(Q) and
    20.093.(1)(Y). 6
    6
    The Commission also justified its interpretation of Rule 20.093(1)(F) by asserting that i t
    would more closely align Ameren’s performance incentive to the amount consumers “actually saved”
    as a result of the deployment of energy-efficiency measures. But the avoided cost estimates are
    intended as estimates of expected savings over the multi-year life of various energy-efficiency
    measures; they are not simply an accounting of savings actually achieved during any particular
    period of time. Ameren will be recovering a performance incentive based on complex estimates of
    net benefits – not “actual savings” – whether we uphold the Commission’s position or Ameren’s.
    23
    Conclusion
    For the foregoing reasons, I respectfully dissent from the majority’s affirmance
    of the Commission’s order.
    /s/ ALOK AHUJA
    Alok Ahuja, Judge
    24
    

Document Info

Docket Number: WD79406

Judges: Thomas H. Newton, Judge

Filed Date: 12/6/2016

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 12/6/2016