Glickenhaus & Company v. Household International, Inc. ( 2015 )


Menu:
  •                                 In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 13-3532
    GLICKENHAUS & COMPANY, et al.,
    on behalf of themselves and all
    others similarly situated,
    Plaintiffs-Appellees,
    v.
    HOUSEHOLD INTERNATIONAL, INC., et al.,
    Defendants-Appellants.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 02 C 5893 — Ronald A. Guzmán, Judge.
    ARGUED MAY 29, 2014 — DECIDED MAY 21, 2015
    Before BAUER, KANNE, and SYKES, Circuit Judges.
    SYKES, Circuit Judge. This securities-fraud class action was
    tried to a jury and produced an enormous judgment for the
    2                                                              No. 13-3532
    plaintiffs—$2.46 billion, apparently one of the largest to date.1
    The defendants are Household International, Inc., and three of
    its top executives.2 They challenge the judgment on many
    grounds, but their primary contention is that the plaintiffs
    failed to prove loss causation. Proving this element takes
    sophisticated expert testimony, and the plaintiffs hired one of
    the best in the field.
    The defendants broadly attack the expert’s loss-causation
    model. They also make the more modest claim that his testi-
    mony did not adequately address whether firm-specific,
    nonfraud factors contributed to the collapse in Household’s
    stock price during the relevant time period. This latter argu-
    ment has merit, as we explain below.
    The defendants also raise a claim of instructional error
    under Janus Capital Group, Inc. v. First Derivative Traders,
    
    131 S. Ct. 2296
    (2011), which clarified what it means to “make”
    a false statement in connection with the purchase or sale of a
    security. This claim too has merit, but only for the three
    executives and only for some of the false statements found by
    the jury. Household itself “made” all the false statements, as
    Janus defined that term.
    1
    See Reuters, HSBC Faces $2.46 Billion Judgment in Securities Fraud Case, N.Y.
    TIMES, Oct. 17, 2013, http://www.nytimes. com/2013/10/18/business/hsbc-is-
    fined-2-46-billion-in-securities-fraud-case.html.
    2
    Household International, Inc., is now known as HSBC Finance Corp. and
    is owned indirectly by HSBC Holdings plc.
    No. 13-3532                                                   3
    The remaining challenges fail. A new trial is warranted on
    these two issues only. We remand for further proceedings
    consistent with this opinion.
    I. Background
    This case is complex and has a lengthy procedural history
    dating to 2002; retracing it would require a tome. To simplify,
    we’ll start with the view from 10,000 feet and add details
    relevant to particular issues as needed.
    Household’s business centered on consumer lending—
    mortgages, home-equity loans, auto financing, and credit-card
    loans. In 1999 company executives implemented an aggressive
    growth strategy in pursuit of a higher stock price. Over the
    next two years, the stock price rose dramatically, but the
    company’s growth was driven by predatory lending practices.
    This in turn increased the delinquency rate of Household’s
    loans, which the executives then tried to mask with creative
    accounting. Their technique was to “re-age” delinquent loans
    to distort a popular metric that investors use to gauge the
    quality of loan portfolios: the percentage of loans that are two
    or more months delinquent. Household also improperly
    recorded the revenue from four credit-card agreements,
    though it ultimately issued corrections in August 2002.
    Between the summers of 1999 and 2001, Household’s stock
    rose from around $40 per share to the mid $60s, and by July of
    2001 was trading as high as $69. But the reality of Household’s
    situation eventually caught up with its stock price. The truth
    came to light over a period of about a year through a series of
    4                                                     No. 13-3532
    disclosures that began when California sued Household over
    its predatory lending. Other states also launched investigations
    and eventually collaborated in multi-state litigation. The
    so-called “disclosure period” culminated when Household
    settled the multi-state litigation for $484 million. Between the
    filing of California’s suit on November 15, 2001, and the multi-
    state settlement on October 11, 2002, Household’s stock
    dropped 54%, from $60.90 to $28.20. Comparatively, declines
    in the S&P 500 and S&P Financials indexes during this period
    were 25% and 21%, respectively.
    In 2002 the plaintiffs filed this securities-fraud class action
    under § 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, 15 U.S.C.
    § 78j(b), and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s
    Rule 10b-5, 17 C.F.R. § 240.10b-5, alleging that on numerous
    occasions Household and its executives misrepresented its
    lending practices, delinquency rates, and earnings from credit-
    card agreements. The parties stipulated to class certification,
    and most issues were tried to a jury over a period of more than
    three weeks. Jurors were given 40 separate statements that the
    plaintiffs claimed were actionable misrepresentations. For each
    statement they were asked to determine: (1) whether the
    statement was actionable (that is, was it false or misleading,
    material, and caused loss); (2) who among the four defendants
    was liable for it; (3) which of the three bad practices the
    statement related to; and (4) whether the particular statement
    was made knowingly or recklessly by each defendant. Of the
    40 possibilities, the jury found 17 actionable misrepresentations
    and answered the remaining questions.
    No. 13-3532                                                     5
    The jury was also asked to determine how much
    Household’s stock was overpriced due to the misrepresenta-
    tions. The plaintiffs’ expert presented two models for measur-
    ing stock-price inflation. Each model generated a table that
    estimated inflation on any given day during the class period.
    The jury adopted one of the two models and used the figures
    from the corresponding table to complete the special verdict.
    (We will have more to say about the loss-causation models
    later.)
    This concluded Phase I of the proceedings. In Phase II the
    parties addressed reliance issues and calculated damages for
    individual class members. In the meantime, the defendants
    challenged the jury’s verdict in a motion for judgment as a
    matter of law, or alternatively, for a new trial. See FED. R. CIV.
    P. 50(b). The district court denied the motions.
    Some individual claims have yet to be resolved, but the
    district court entered final judgment on claims totaling
    $2.46 billion, finding no just reason for delay. See FED. R. CIV.
    P. 54(b). This appeal followed.
    II. Discussion
    The basic elements of a Rule 10b-5 claim are familiar. The
    plaintiffs had to prove “(1) a material misrepresentation or
    omission by the defendant[s]; (2) scienter; (3) a connection
    between the misrepresentation or omission and the purchase
    or sale of a security; (4) reliance upon the misrepresentation or
    omission; (5) economic loss; and (6) loss causation.” Halliburton
    6                                                    No. 13-3532
    Co. v. Erica P. John Fund, Inc., 
    134 S. Ct. 2398
    , 2407 (2014)
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    The issues on appeal cluster around three elements. First,
    and most prominently, the defendants attack the evidence of
    loss causation. This argument has several layers, but in general
    the defendants claim that the plaintiffs’ evidence of loss
    causation was legally insufficient, entitling them to judgment
    as a matter of law, or at the very least a new trial. Second, they
    argue that the district court incorrectly instructed the jury on
    what it means to “make” a false statement in violation of
    Rule 10b-5, also warranting a new trial. Finally, they contend
    that discovery rulings during the Phase II proceedings de-
    prived them of a meaningful opportunity to prove that class
    members did not rely on the misrepresentations.
    Different standards of review apply. We review de novo
    the denial of a motion for judgment as a matter of law; we will
    reverse only if the evidence was legally insufficient for the jury
    to have found as it did. Venson v. Altamirano, 
    749 F.3d 641
    , 646
    (7th Cir. 2014); FED. R. CIV. P. 50(a)(1). We review the denial of
    a motion for a new trial for abuse of discretion. 
    Venson, 749 F.3d at 656
    . “A new trial is appropriate if the jury’s verdict
    is against the manifest weight of the evidence or if the trial was
    in some way unfair to the moving party.” 
    Id. Jury instructions
    are reviewed de novo to test whether they fairly and accurately
    stated the law; a new trial is warranted only if an instructional
    error caused prejudice. Burzlaff v. Thoroughbred Motorsports,
    Inc., 
    758 F.3d 841
    , 846–47 (7th Cir. 2014). We review discovery
    rulings for abuse of discretion. Thermal Design, Inc. v. Am. Soc’y
    No. 13-3532                                                      7
    of Heating, Refrigerating & Air-Conditioning Eng’rs, Inc., 
    755 F.3d 832
    , 837 (7th Cir. 2012).
    A. Loss Causation
    We begin, as the defendants do, with loss causation. To
    prove this element of the claim, the plaintiffs had the burden
    to establish that the price of the securities they purchased was
    “inflated”—that is, it was higher than it would have been
    without the false statements—and that it declined once the
    truth was revealed. See Dura Pharm., Inc. v. Broudo, 
    544 U.S. 336
    , 342–44 (2005); Ray v. Citigroup Global Mkts., Inc., 
    482 F.3d 991
    , 995 (7th Cir. 2007) (“[P]laintiffs must show both that the
    defendants’ alleged misrepresentations artificially inflated the
    price of the stock and that the value of the stock declined once
    the market learned of the deception.”). A plaintiff’s causal
    losses are measured by the amount the share price was inflated
    when he bought the stock minus the amount it was inflated
    when he sold it. See Dura 
    Pharm., 544 U.S. at 342
    –44.
    It’s very difficult to know exactly how much stock-price
    inflation a false statement causes because it requires knowing
    a counterfactual: what the price would have been without the
    false statement. It’s tempting to think that inflation can be
    measured by observing what happens to the stock immediately
    after a false statement is made. But that assumption is often
    wrong. For example, say the president of a company lies to the
    public about earnings (“We made $200 million more than we
    predicted this year!”) and immediately afterward the com-
    pany’s stock price rises by $10. The new price could be inflated
    by exactly $10 if in reality the company had merely met
    8                                                     No. 13-3532
    expectations and its stock price would have remained the same
    had the president told the truth. Or the inflation could be less
    than $10 if, say, the company really only made $100 million
    more than predicted and the stock price would have risen by
    only $5 had the president told the truth. And the inflation
    might be significantly more than $10 if the company had
    actually made less than predicted and the stock price would
    have fallen had the truth been known.
    Note too that a stock can be inflated even if the price
    remains the same or declines after a false statement because the
    price might have fallen even more (e.g., “We only lost
    $100 million this year,” when actually losses were
    $200 million). So the movement of a stock price immediately
    after a false statement often tells us very little about how much
    inflation the false statement caused.
    The best way to determine the impact of a false statement
    is to observe what happens when the truth is finally disclosed
    and use that to work backward, on the assumption that the
    lie’s positive effect on the share price is equal to the additive
    inverse of the truth’s negative effect. (Put more simply: what
    goes up, must come down.) The plaintiffs hired an expert to do
    exactly that kind of financial analysis: Daniel R. Fischel,
    founder and president of Lexecon, an economics consulting
    firm, who at the time also was Professor of Law and Business
    at Northwestern University and Professor Emeritus at the
    University of Chicago Law School.3
    3
    The defendants acknowledge Fischel’s prominence in the field.
    (continued...)
    No. 13-3532                                                                 9
    Fischel prepared two economic models to quantify the
    impact of the truth on Household’s stock price. The parties call
    the simpler of the two the “specific disclosure” model. Fischel
    identified each major disclosure event and then measured the
    disclosure’s effect on the stock price on that specific day. This
    process is more difficult than simply observing how much the
    price declined; part of the decline may have been caused by
    market or industry trends. To compensate for this, Fischel used
    regression analysis to generate a model that predicted the
    movement of Household’s stock based on the movements in
    the S&P 500 and the S&P Financials Index, an index of S&P 500
    companies in the same industry category as Household. The
    effect of a disclosure event was calculated as the actual return
    on the day of the disclosure minus the predicted return (using
    the regression model and the broader market returns that day).
    The amount of inflation in the stock price on any given day is
    then just the sum of the effects of all subsequent disclosures of
    prior false statements.
    To illustrate how the specific-disclosure model works,
    assume that on the day the world discovers that a company
    misrepresented its earnings, its stock drops 5%. That same day,
    however, the market dropped 2% (assume further that the
    model predicts the company will follow the market generally).
    The effect of the disclosure is then 3%. If the stock was trading
    at around $100, then for every day prior to the disclosure, the
    3
    (...continued)
    Apparently he’s the expert for this kind of financial analysis; the defendants
    tried to hire him as well, but they were too late. His consulting firm is now
    known as Compass Lexecon.
    10                                                    No. 13-3532
    stock was overpriced by $3. If there was a second disclosure
    that also caused a $3 drop in price, then for every day prior to
    both disclosures, the stock was overpriced by $6.
    In this case there were a total of 14 separate disclosure
    events, and the net effect of these (some actually caused the
    stock price to rise) was a decline of $7.97 in the stock price. The
    final result of the expert’s analysis was a large table listing the
    amount Household’s stock was overpriced on any given day
    during the class period, the maximum being $7.97.
    One problem with the specific-disclosure model is that the
    information contained in a major disclosure event often leaks
    out to some market participants before its release. If this
    happens, the model will understate the truth’s effect on the
    price and thus the amount that the stock was overpriced before
    the truth became known. This is so because the specific-
    disclosure model only measures price changes on the identified
    disclosure days and not the effect of more gradual exposure of
    the fraud. For this reason Fischel provided a second model that
    the parties refer to as the “leakage” model. This model calcu-
    lates every difference, both positive and negative, between the
    stock’s predicted returns (using the same regression analysis
    described above) and the stock’s actual returns during the
    disclosure period. The total sum of these residual returns is
    assumed to be the effect of the disclosures. The amount the
    stock is overpriced on any given day is the sum of all subse-
    quent residual returns.
    As with the specific-disclosure model, the expert’s final
    product using the leakage model was a table listing these
    amounts. The total sum of the residual returns during the class
    No. 13-3532                                                              11
    period was $23.94, so that figure was treated as a ceiling. In
    other words, if on any given day the sum of subsequent
    residual returns exceeded this amount (due to the ups and
    downs of the market), the number was replaced with $23.94.
    Although this model accounts for the movement of the market
    generally, it does not account for company-specific information
    unrelated to fraud-corrective disclosures (more on this point in
    a moment).
    The most important thing to understand about both models
    is that they don’t directly measure inflation caused by false
    statements; instead they measure the value of the truth. The
    models tell us that value even if no false statement is ever made
    because investors might not know the truth for reasons other
    than false statements (say, for example, if earnings deteriorate
    before the company needs to report them). As soon as a lie is
    told, however, the inflation caused by the false statement
    becomes equal to the value of the truth (as measured by the
    model) because had the statement been truthful, the stock price
    would have done what it did do once the truth was revealed.4
    The jurors were given the tables from each model listing the
    amount the stock was overpriced on each day during the class
    4
    This assumes, however, that the only alternative to a false statement is a
    true statement. If no statement was an alternative, then the model is much
    less accurate because it measures the effect of the truth, not the effect of
    silence. We don’t need to worry about this problem here because most of
    the misrepresentations were made in legally required corporate filings. A
    few were made to the press or at conferences, but even these were in
    response to reports that Household’s true situation might not be as it
    appeared. Thus, “no statement” wasn’t really an option.
    12                                                    No. 13-3532
    period (June 30, 1999 to October 11, 2002). They were also
    given a second table that covered the same period but had
    blank spaces for each day. Their task was to fill in the amount
    the stock was overpriced due to misrepresentations. To do so,
    they had to decide two things: (1) when the first actionable
    misrepresentation occurred (the plaintiffs claimed there were
    40); and (2) which model more accurately measured the effect
    of disclosures (i.e., the value of the truth). On any date prior to
    the first actionable misrepresentation, the jurors were told to
    write a zero. On any date subsequent, they were told to copy
    the number from the model they chose.
    The jury followed these instructions perfectly. Of the
    40 possibilities, the jury found 17 actionable misrepresenta-
    tions, the first of which occurred on March 23, 2001. As
    instructed, the jurors found zero stock-price inflation prior to
    that date. But starting on that date they adopted and applied
    the leakage model. That model estimated that the stock was
    overpriced by $23.94 on March 23, 2001, so the jury’s table does
    too. The jury’s table thus goes from zero inflation on March 22
    to $23.94 worth of inflation on March 23.
    The defendants argue that this is absurd. After all, there
    were 40 possible misrepresentations, 17 of which were found
    actionable, so how could a single false statement have caused
    the entire $23.94 of inflation? They also note that Household’s
    stock only went up $3.40 between March 22 and March 23, and
    the leakage model’s inflation number only changed by $0.67
    (remember, the model only adds on the residual return, which
    is actual return minus predicted return). The defendants
    intimate that the March 23 statement couldn’t possibly have
    No. 13-3532                                                  13
    caused inflation to increase by any more than these amounts.
    They make similar observations about the 16 other misrepre-
    sentations found by the jury, noting that inflation changes only
    slightly and sometimes even goes down after each one.
    These objections rest on a fundamental misconception
    about the leakage model. Recall that the amount of inflation
    caused by a false statement is the difference between the stock
    price after the false statement and what it would have been had
    the statement reflected the truth. What the model measures is
    the effect the truth would have had on the price. Since the net
    sum of price declines due to corrective disclosures under this
    model was $23.94, the stock was overpriced by that amount
    prior to those disclosures. As soon as the first false statement
    was made, that overpricing became fully attributable to the
    false statement, even if the stock price didn’t change at all,
    because had the statement been truthful, the price would have
    gone down by $23.94—after all, that’s what it did once the
    truth was fully revealed. Similarly, every subsequent false
    statement caused the full amount of inflation to remain in the
    stock price, even if the price didn’t change at all, because had
    the truth become known, the price would have fallen then.
    Another way to think about it is to see that there are two
    senses of “inflation.” One is “actual inflation”—just the
    difference between the stock price and what the price would
    have been if the truth had been known; this is what the expert’s
    model measures. The other is “fraud-induced inflation”—the
    difference between the stock price and what the price would
    have been if the defendants had spoken truthfully; this is what
    the jury determined using the model plus its findings regarding
    14                                                   No. 13-3532
    false statements. Before the first false statement is made, there
    is “actual inflation” in the stock price but no “fraud-induced
    inflation” because although the stock is overpriced, misrepre-
    sentations are not the cause. But as soon as the first false
    statement is made, fraud-induced inflation becomes equal to
    actual inflation. Thus, fraud-induced inflation can go from zero
    to a very large number, even if the stock price doesn’t change
    at all. In fact, the defendants’ own expert acknowledged that
    inflation—of the fraud-induced type—can increase even if the
    stock price doesn’t change and that it must be zero before the
    first false statement.
    The defendants argue that the leakage model of loss
    causation was legally insufficient because the plaintiffs “made
    no attempt to prove how Household’s stock price became
    inflated in the first instance,” but, rather, just “assumed that
    Household’s stock price was artificially inflated on the first day
    of the Class Period due to unspecified pre-Class Period
    misrepresentations and omissions.” They note that Fischel’s
    tables—under both the specific-disclosure model and the
    leakage model—show the stock as inflated on the very first day
    of the class period. True, but neither model assumed that
    Household’s share price was inflated due to misrepresentations.
    Instead, the models measure what we have called “actual
    inflation”—inflation due to investors not knowing the truth.
    Actual inflation could have resulted from prior misrepresenta-
    tions or just from the company’s fundamentals having deterio-
    rated without investors knowing about it. How the stock
    became inflated in the first place is irrelevant because each
    subsequent false statement prevented the price from falling to
    No. 13-3532                                                     15
    its true value and therefore caused the price to remain ele-
    vated.
    The plaintiffs point all this out in their brief. In reply the
    defendants object that the plaintiffs are vacillating between two
    separate and legally distinct theories of loss causation. A false
    statement that prevents a stock price from falling is an
    “inflation-maintenance theory,” which (they say) requires the
    plaintiffs to prove how the inflation was introduced into the
    stock price in the first place. (There is no law to support this
    proposition.) If, on the other hand, the plaintiffs are using an
    “inflation-introduction theory,” then the jury couldn’t possibly
    have attributed the full $23.94 of inflation to the March 23
    statement because the model assumed there was inflation
    before that date. (This argument conflates actual inflation with
    fraud-induced inflation, as we’ve just explained.)
    More fundamentally, theories of “inflation maintenance”
    and “inflation introduction” are not separate legal categories.
    Our decision in Schleicher v. Wendt, 
    618 F.3d 679
    (7th Cir. 2010),
    is instructive on this point. There the parties argued about the
    distinction between misrepresentations that cause a stock price
    to rise and those that prevent it from falling, as if that distinc-
    tion had some legal significance in the loss-causation analysis.
    We explained why it does not:
    When an unduly optimistic false statement
    causes a stock’s price to rise, the price will fall
    again when the truth comes to light. Likewise
    when an unduly optimistic statement stops a
    price from declining (by adding some good news
    to the mix): once the truth comes out, the price
    16                                                    No. 13-3532
    drops to where it would have been had the
    statement not been made. … But it should be
    clear that this is just a mirror image of the situa-
    tion for the same figures in black ink, rather than
    red. … Whether the numbers are black or red,
    the fraud lies in an intentionally false or mislead-
    ing statement, and the loss is realized when the
    truth turns out to be worse than the statement
    implied.
    
    Id. at 683–84.
         The Eleventh Circuit agrees:
    The district court erroneously assumed that
    simply because confirmatory false statements
    have no immediate effect on an already inflated
    stock price in an efficient market, these state-
    ments cannot cause harm. But the inflation level
    need not change for new investors to be injured
    by a false statement. Fraudulent statements that
    prevent a stock price from falling can cause harm
    by prolonging the period during which the stock
    is traded at inflated prices. We therefore hold
    that confirmatory information that wrongfully
    prolongs a period of inflation—even without
    increasing the level of inflation—may be action-
    able under the securities laws.
    FindWhat Investor Grp. v. FindWhat.com, 
    658 F.3d 1282
    , 1314
    (11th Cir. 2011).
    No. 13-3532                                                     17
    In short, what the plaintiffs had to prove is that the
    defendants’ false statements caused the stock price to remain
    higher than it would have been had the statements been
    truthful. Fischel’s models calculated the effect of the truth, once
    it was fully revealed, and the jury found that the defendants
    concealed the truth through false statements. That is enough.
    The defendants have two additional arguments that stand
    on stronger ground, however. First, they argue that the leakage
    model, which the jury adopted, did not account for firm-
    specific, nonfraud factors that may have affected the decline in
    Household’s stock price. That is true; Fischel acknowledged
    this in his testimony. The model assumes that any changes in
    Household’s stock price—other than those that can be ex-
    plained by general market and industry trends—are attribut-
    able to the fraud-related disclosures. If during the relevant
    period there was significant negative information about
    Household unrelated to these corrective disclosures (and not
    attributable to market or industry trends), then the model
    would overstate the effect of the disclosures and in turn of the
    false statements. Of course, this can cut both ways. If during
    the relevant period there was significant positive information
    about Household, then the model would understate the effect
    of the disclosures.
    Firm-specific, nonfraud factors were not entirely ignored,
    however. Although the leakage model doesn’t account for their
    effect, Fischel testified that he looked for company-specific
    factors during the relevant period and did not find any
    significant trend of positive or negative information apart from
    the fraud-related disclosures:
    18                                                  No. 13-3532
    Q. And did you also analyze whether company-
    specific factors unrelated to the alleged fraud can
    explain Household’s stock price decline during
    [the disclosure period]?
    A. Yes, I did. I looked at that carefully.
    I noticed that there were a lot of disclosures
    that had some fraud-related information in it and
    some other … part … [that] dealt with something
    other [than that which] was fraud related.
    There were some … of those disclosures that
    had a positive effect, some had a negative effect;
    but overall it was impossible to conclude that the
    difference between the true value line and the
    actual price would have been any different had
    there been no disclosures about non-fraud-
    related information during this particular period.
    Some positive, some negative. They cancel each
    other out.
    The plaintiffs also introduced e-mails and reports from
    Household executives attributing the entirety of the stock’s
    decline to the fraud-related disclosures, and the record
    contains various reports from market analysts primarily
    focused on this information. In addition, other evidence loosely
    corroborates the inflation figure produced by the leakage
    model ($23.94). For example, when Household embarked on its
    aggressive growth strategy, one executive (Gary Gilmer, a
    defendant here) suggested that the stock price could increase
    by “over 22 dollars a share.”
    No. 13-3532                                                    19
    The defendants contend that this was not enough. Because
    it was the plaintiffs’ burden to prove loss causation, they argue
    that the leakage model needed to eliminate any firm-specific,
    nonfraud related factors that might have contributed to the
    stock’s decline. This argument relies on the Supreme Court’s
    opinion in Dura Pharmaceuticals.
    The precise issue in Dura is unimportant here, so we’ll
    describe the case only briefly. The Ninth Circuit had held that
    in order to plead loss causation in a securities-fraud case,
    plaintiffs need only allege that the share price was inflated
    when they purchased their stock. The Supreme Court dis-
    agreed, holding that plaintiffs must also allege that the stock
    price declined once the truth was revealed, because if they also
    sold their stock while it was still inflated, there would be no
    
    loss. 544 U.S. at 342
    .
    In our case the plaintiffs proved that Household’s share
    price declined after the truth came out, so the problem identi-
    fied in Dura is not present here. But the Court’s opinion also
    contains this very important passage:
    If the purchaser sells later after the truth makes
    its way into the marketplace, an initially inflated
    purchase price might mean a later loss. But that
    is far from inevitably so. When the purchaser
    subsequently resells such shares, even at a lower
    price, that lower price may reflect, not the earlier
    misrepresentation, but changed economic cir-
    cumstances, changed investor expectations, new
    industry-specific or firm-specific facts, conditions,
    or other events, which taken separately or together
    20                                                   No. 13-3532
    account for some or all of that lower price. (The
    same is true in respect to a claim that a share’s
    higher price is lower than it would otherwise
    have been—a claim we do not consider here.)
    Other things being equal, the longer the time
    between purchase and sale, the more likely that
    this is so, i.e., the more likely that other factors
    caused the loss.
    Given the tangle of factors affecting price, the
    most logic alone permits us to say is that the
    higher purchase price will sometimes play a role
    in bringing about a future loss.
    
    Id. at 342–43
    (second emphasis added).
    So in order to prove loss causation, plaintiffs in securities-
    fraud cases need to isolate the extent to which a decline in
    stock price is due to fraud-related corrective disclosures and
    not other factors. See Hubbard v. BankAtl. Bancorp, Inc., 
    688 F.3d 713
    , 725–26 (11th Cir. 2012); Miller v. Asensio & Co., Inc.,
    
    364 F.3d 223
    , 232 (4th Cir. 2004).
    Fischel’s models controlled for market and industry factors
    and general trends in the economy—the regression analysis
    took care of that. But the leakage model, which the jury
    adopted, didn’t account for the extent to which firm-specific,
    nonfraud related information may have contributed to the
    decline in Household’s share price. Fischel testified—albeit in
    very general terms—that he considered this possibility and
    ruled it out. The question is whether that’s enough or whether
    the model itself must fully account for the possibility that firm-
    specific, nonfraud factors affected the stock price.
    No. 13-3532                                                                21
    On this point the defendants refer us to several cases
    rejecting leakage models similar or identical to the one used
    here. Each of these cases, however, is different in an important
    respect. For example, one case rejected a leakage model where
    the plaintiff hadn’t identified any mechanism of corrective
    disclosure. In re Williams Sec. Litig.–WCG Subclass, 
    558 F.3d 1130
    , 1137–38 (10th Cir. 2009) (“To satisfy the requirements of
    Dura, … any theory—even a leakage theory that posits a
    gradual exposure of the fraud rather than a full and immediate
    disclosure—will have to show some mechanism for how the
    truth was revealed. … The inability to point to a single correc-
    tive disclosure does not relieve the plaintiff of showing how
    the truth was revealed; he cannot say, ‘Well, the market must
    have known.’”). Here, however, the plaintiffs identified
    14 separate disclosure events, and they also presented evidence
    that the content of the disclosures was leaking out to the
    market gradually prior to their release.
    The other cases cited by the defendants rejected the leakage
    model for failing to account for firm-specific, nonfraud-related
    information that was both clearly identified and significant in
    proportion to the disclosures.5 Here, in contrast, Fischel
    5
    In Fener v. Operating Engineers Construction Industry & Miscellaneous Pension
    Fund (Local 66), 
    579 F.3d 401
    (5th Cir. 2009), the loss-causation model was
    used to determine the effect of a single press release that contained three
    parts, two of which were unrelated to disclosures of fraud, but the model
    failed to account for those parts. The Fifth Circuit “reject[ed] any event
    study that shows only how a stock reacted to the entire bundle of negative
    information, rather than examining the evidence linking the culpable
    disclosure to the stock-price movement.” 
    Id. at 410
    (internal quotation
    (continued...)
    22                                                             No. 13-3532
    testified that although there were mixed disclosures during the
    relevant time period—disclosures that contained both fraud-
    related and nonfraud information—the nonfraud related
    information wasn’t significantly positive or negative. Unfortu-
    nately, his testimony was very general on this point; neither
    side bothered to develop it. And the defendants haven’t
    identified any firm-specific, nonfraud related information that
    could have significantly distorted the model.
    To our knowledge, no court has either upheld or rejected
    the use of a leakage model in circumstances similar to this
    case—probably because these cases rarely make it to trial. That
    said, the Supreme Court has generally recognized that the
    truth can leak out over time. See 
    Dura, 544 U.S. at 342
    (“But if,
    say, the purchaser sells the shares quickly before the relevant
    truth begins to leak out, the misrepresentation will not have led
    to any loss.”) (emphasis added). So have we. See 
    Schleicher, 618 F.3d at 686
    (“[T]ruth can come out, and affect the market
    5
    (...continued)
    marks omitted). In In re REMEC Inc. Securities Litigation, 
    702 F. Supp. 2d 1202
    , 1274 (S.D. Cal. 2010), the court rejected the expert’s model because
    “each of the five identified disclosures, including the three corrective
    disclosures, contained multiple pieces of company specific information,
    some negative, some positive, some allegedly fraud related, and some not.”
    The other cases cited by the defendants are to the same effect. See United
    States v. Ferguson, 
    584 F. Supp. 2d 447
    , 453 n.7 (D. Conn. 2008) (“The
    defendants cited several confounding factors during the 30-day event
    window [that the model did not account for].”); In re Omnicrom Grp., Inc.
    Sec. Litig., 
    541 F. Supp. 2d 546
    (S.D.N.Y. 2008) (explaining that a Wall Street
    Journal article that caused a drop in stock price was either unrelated to
    disclosures of fraud or was already known to market participants).
    No. 13-3532                                                            23
    price, in advance of a formal announcement.”). And other
    circuits have acknowledged the viability of the leakage theory,
    at least in principle. See, e.g., In re Flag Telecom Holdings, Ltd.
    Sec. Litig., 
    574 F.3d 29
    , 40–41, 40 n.5 (2d Cir. 2009) (noting the
    “plausibility” of a “leakage” theory but rejecting it in that
    particular case because the plaintiffs “failed to demonstrate
    that any of the information [had] ‘leaked’ into the market”).
    The defendants argue that to be legally sufficient, any loss-
    causation model must itself account for, and perfectly exclude,
    any firm-specific, nonfraud related factors that may have
    contributed to the decline in a stock price.6 It may be very
    difficult, if not impossible, for any statistical model to do this.
    See Janet Cooper Alexander, The Value of Bad News in Securities
    Class Actions, 41 UCLA L. REV. 1421, 1452, 1469 (1994); Esther
    Bruegger & Frederick C. Dunbar, Estimating Financial Fraud
    Damages with Response Coefficients, 35 J. CORP. L. 11, 25 (2009);
    Frederick C. Dunbar & Arun Sen, Counterfactual Keys to
    Causation and Damages in Shareholder Class-Action Lawsuits,
    2009 WIS. L. REV. 199, 242 (2009). Accepting the defendants’
    position likely would doom the leakage theory as a method of
    quantifying loss causation. On the other hand, if it’s enough for
    a loss-causation expert to offer a conclusory opinion that no
    firm-specific, nonfraud related information affected the stock
    price during the relevant time period, then it may be far too
    easy for plaintiffs to evade the loss-causation principles
    explained in Dura.
    6
    The defendants are joined in this argument by the Securities Industry and
    Finance Markets Association—an advocacy group representing banks,
    securities firms, and asset managers—as amicus curiae.
    24                                                            No. 13-3532
    There is a middle ground. If the plaintiffs’ expert testifies
    that no firm-specific, nonfraud related information contributed
    to the decline in stock price during the relevant time period
    and explains in nonconclusory terms the basis for this opinion,
    then it’s reasonable to expect the defendants to shoulder the
    burden of identifying some significant, firm-specific, nonfraud
    related information that could have affected the stock price. If
    they can’t, then the leakage model can go to the jury; if they
    can, then the burden shifts back to the plaintiffs to account for
    that specific information or provide a loss-causation model that
    doesn’t suffer from the same problem, like the specific-
    disclosure model.7 One possible way to address the issue is to
    simply exclude from the model’s calculation any days identi-
    fied by the defendants on which significant, firm-specific,
    nonfraud related information was released. See Allen Ferrell &
    Atanu Saha, The Loss Causation Requirement for Rule 10B-5
    Causes of Action: The Implications of Dura Pharmaceuticals,
    Inc. v. Broudo, 63 BUS. LAW. 163, 169 (2007).
    Because this case is one of the few to make it to trial on a
    leakage theory, the process of submitting the loss-causation
    issue to the jury was understandably ad hoc.8 In light of Dura,
    however, we conclude that the evidence at trial did not
    7
    Here, of course, the plaintiffs submitted Fischel’s specific-disclosure model
    to the jury as an alternative method for quantifying loss causation. But this
    method might encounter the same problem, if indeed there was some
    additional negative firm-specific, nonfraud related information on the same
    day as a specific disclosure.
    8
    We intend no criticism of the district judge. To the contrary, he handled
    this complex and difficult case with thoroughness and care.
    No. 13-3532                                                    25
    adequately account for the possibility that firm-specific,
    nonfraud related information may have affected the decline in
    Household’s stock price during the relevant time period. As
    things stand, the record reflects only the expert’s general
    statement that any such information was insignificant. That’s
    not enough. A new trial is warranted on the loss-causation
    issue consistent with the approach we’ve sketched in this
    opinion.
    The defendants have one final argument about loss causa-
    tion, which they raise for the first time on appeal. We’ll address
    it anyway since the problem is easily resolved on remand. The
    plaintiffs’ leakage model calculates the effect of full disclosure
    of all three of Household’s bad practices: predatory lending, re-
    aging delinquent loans, and misrepresenting earnings. The first
    actionable false statement found by the jury, however, only
    addressed predatory lending. Based on the assumptions
    underlying the leakage model, it can’t be the case that the stock
    price would have fallen fully had this statement reflected the
    truth; investors would not yet have learned of Household’s re-
    aging practices or true earnings.
    The defendants correctly note this problem, but it happens
    to only have a minor effect in this case. The second actionable
    false statement came on March 28, 2001, only three trading
    days later, and it covered all three bad practices. Had this
    statement been true, the market would have been fully
    informed and the stock would have dropped to its true value.
    The defendants maintain that this problem undermines the
    entire model: The effect may be modest here, but what if the
    26                                                          No. 13-3532
    jury had found a different first false statement and the gap was
    much larger?
    As support for this position, the defendants rely on Comcast
    Corp. v. Behrend, 
    133 S. Ct. 1426
    (2013), but that case doesn’t
    require us to wholly reject the leakage model. Comcast was a
    class action alleging that a cable-television provider’s pricing
    violated the Sherman Act in four separate ways. 
    Id. at 1430.
    The plaintiffs submitted a damages model that computed what
    the cable services would have cost but for all four categories of
    antitrust violations. The issue was whether class certification
    was appropriate. The district court held that only one of the
    four theories of antitrust impact was capable of class-wide
    proof, but the court also held that damages could be proved on
    a class-wide basis via the plaintiffs’ model. 
    Id. at 1431.
    The
    Supreme Court reversed because the model did not separate
    damages by category. In other words, because the class could
    only proceed on one theory of antitrust impact, the plaintiffs
    were left with no correspondingly limited class-wide way to
    prove damages. 
    Id. at 1434–35.
        Here, on the other hand, the jury found that Household and
    its executives lied about all three categories of bad practices.
    Accordingly, the Comcast principle applies, at most, to the
    period between the first false statement and the date—just
    three days later—on which the jury found actionable false
    statements addressing all three bad practices.9
    9
    So, for example, if the first false statement only addressed one of three
    categories of fraud and the second statement addressed the other two
    (continued...)
    No. 13-3532                                                            27
    There is a simple solution to this problem: instruct the
    jurors that if the first actionable misrepresentation relates only
    to one or two of the three categories of fraud, they should find
    zero inflation in the stock (or some fraction of the model
    they’ve chosen) until there are actionable misrepresentations
    addressing all three. This option wasn’t considered below
    because the defendants never raised this specific objection
    (they objected to the leakage model more generally), but the
    point is that the problem doesn’t defeat the expert’s model.
    The defendants do not challenge the jury’s misrepresenta-
    tion findings, so the 17 actionable false statements are fixed; we
    need only worry about those three trading days. If the plain-
    tiffs can supply evidence that some fraction of their model is a
    reasonable estimate of the effect of predatory lending alone,
    then the new jury may consider that number. Otherwise, the
    jury should be instructed to enter zero inflation for those three
    days.
    B. Janus Error
    Next up is a claim of instructional error. The defendants
    argue that the jury was incorrectly instructed on what it means
    to “make” a false statement in violation of the securities laws.
    9
    (...continued)
    categories (but not all three), then the model would be accurate after the
    second statement because at that point had both statements been truthful,
    the truth would have been fully known and the price would have fallen to
    the value it did fall to once the truth was disclosed.
    28                                                  No. 13-3532
    The relevant part of the instruction was as follows (with the
    offending phrase italicized):
    To prevail on their 10b-5 claim against any
    defendant, plaintiffs must prove … :
    (1) the defendant made, approved, or furnished
    information to be included in a false statement of
    fact … during the relevant time period between
    July 30, 1999 and October 11, 2002 … .
    After the Phase I trial concluded, and while Phase II
    proceedings were underway, the Supreme Court issued its
    decision in Janus narrowly construing what it means to “make”
    a false statement in violation of Rule 10b-5. The specific issue
    in Janus was whether a mutual fund investment advisor could
    be held liable for false statements contained in the prospectuses
    of its client mutual 
    funds. 131 S. Ct. at 2299
    . The investment
    advisor in Janus was wholly owned by the company that
    created its client mutual funds, and there also was some
    management overlap. 
    Id. Although the
    advisor had substan-
    tially assisted in the preparation of the prospectuses, it argued
    that it was not the “maker” of the false statements for purposes
    of Rule 10b-5. The Supreme Court agreed:
    For purposes of Rule 10b-5, the maker of a
    statement is the person or entity with ultimate
    authority over the statement, including its con-
    tent and whether and how to communicate it.
    Without control, a person or entity can merely
    suggest what to say, not “make” a statement in
    its own right. One who prepares or publishes a
    statement on behalf of another is not its maker.
    No. 13-3532                                                                29
    And in the ordinary case, attribution within a
    statement or implicit from surrounding circum-
    stances is strong evidence that a statement was
    made by—and only by—the party to whom it is
    attributed. This rule might best be exemplified
    by the relationship between a speechwriter and
    a speaker. Even when a speechwriter drafts a
    speech, the content is entirely within the control
    of the person who delivers it. And it is the speak-
    er who takes credit—or blame—for what is
    ultimately said.
    
    Id. at 2302.
        In light of Janus, the defendants moved for a new trial,
    arguing that the “approved or furnished information” lan-
    guage in the jury instruction misstated the law and had the
    effect of holding some of them liable for false statements that
    they did not “make,” as the Supreme Court construed that
    term. The judge denied the motion, reasoning that the Court’s
    holding applied only to legally independent third parties (like
    the investment advisor in Janus itself), not corporate insiders
    like the individual defendants here, all top executives at
    Household.10
    10
    As support for this ruling, the judge relied in part on In re Satyam
    Computer Services Ltd. Securities Litigation, 
    915 F. Supp. 2d 450
    (S.D.N.Y.
    2013), and In re Smith Barney Transfer Agent Litigation, 
    884 F. Supp. 2d 152
    (S.D.N.Y. 2012), but neither case held that Janus does not apply to corporate
    insiders. Smith Barney held that corporate executives who sign documents
    are the “makers” of the statements contained in the documents even though
    (continued...)
    30                                                             No. 13-3532
    That was error. Nothing in Janus limits its holding to legally
    independent third parties. The Court interpreted the language
    of Rule 10b-5, which makes it “unlawful for any person … [t]o
    make any untrue statement of material fact” in connection with
    the purchase or sale of securities. 17 C.F.R. § 240.10b-5(b). The
    Court’s interpretation applies generally, not just to corporate
    outsiders.11
    And there can be little doubt that the instruction used here
    directly contradicts Janus. The judge instructed the jury that the
    plaintiffs could prevail on their Rule 10b-5 claim if they proved
    that the defendant “made, approved, or furnished information to
    be included in a false statement.” (Emphasis added.) This goes
    10
    (...continued)
    the company has the ultimate authority over the documents. 
    884 F. Supp. 2d
    at 163–64. And Satyam held that Janus did not overturn the “group
    pleading 
    doctrine,” 915 F. Supp. 2d at 477
    n.16, a pleading rule for alleging
    scienter that we rejected long before Janus. See Pugh v. Tribune Co., 
    521 F.3d 686
    , 693 (7th Cir. 2008).
    11
    We note that this issue has divided the district courts. Compare, e.g., City
    of Pontiac Gen. Emps.’ Ret. Sys. v. Lockheed Martin Corp., 
    875 F. Supp. 2d 359
    ,
    374 (S.D.N.Y. 2012) (“Janus … addressed only whether third parties can be
    held liable for statements made by their clients. … [It] has no bearing on
    how corporate officers who work together in the same entity can be held
    jointly responsible … .”), with Haw. Ironworkers Annuity Trust Fund v. Cole,
    No. 3:10CV371, 
    2011 WL 3862206
    , at *4 (N.D. Ohio Sept. 1, 2011) (“[Janus’s]
    interpretation of the verb ‘to make’ is an interpretation of the statutory
    language … and therefore cannot be ignored simply because the defendants
    are corporate insiders.”), and In re UBS AG Sec. Litig., No. 07 Civ.
    11225(RJS), 
    2012 WL 4471265
    , at *10–11 (S.D.N.Y. Sept. 28, 2012), aff’d
    
    752 F.3d 173
    (2d Cir. 2014) (rejecting an argument that Janus applies only to
    third parties and not corporate insiders).
    No. 13-3532                                                                    31
    well beyond the narrow interpretation adopted in Janus. 
    See 131 S. Ct. at 2303
    (“Adopting the Government’s definition of
    ‘make’ would … lead to results inconsistent with our
    precedent … [because it] would permit private plaintiffs to sue
    a person who ‘provides the false or misleading information
    that another person then puts into the statement.’”). The
    instruction plainly misstated the law.
    Still, we must decide whether this error caused the defen-
    dants any prejudice.12 See Jimenez v. City of Chicago, 
    732 F.3d 710
    , 717 (7th Cir. 2013). The four defendants in this case are
    William Aldinger, Household’s CEO; David Schoenholz, the
    CFO; Gilmer, Vice-Chairman and President of Consumer
    Lending; and Household itself. Of the 17 actionable false
    statements, 14 were contained in SEC filings or official
    Household press releases. The remaining three were delivered
    by the executives: one was a statement by Gilmer to the media;
    another was a presentation by Aldinger to Goldman Sachs; and
    12
    Citing Dawson v. New York Life Insurance Co., 
    135 F.3d 1158
    (7th Cir. 1998),
    the defendants argue that this kind of error is always prejudicial and
    automatically requires a new trial. Dawson held that when a jury is
    instructed on multiple theories, one of which is incorrect, “its verdict must
    be set aside even if the verdict may have been based on a theory on which
    the jury was properly instructed.” 
    Id. at 1165.
    Other cases suggest some-
    thing similar. See, e.g., Byrd v. Ill. Dept. of Pub. Health, 
    423 F.3d 696
    , 709 (7th
    Cir. 2005); Saturday Evening Post Co. v. Rumbleseat Press, Inc., 
    816 F.2d 1191
    ,
    1197 (7th Cir. 1987); Simmons, Inc. v. Pinkerton’s, Inc., 
    762 F.2d 591
    , 599 n.3
    (7th Cir. 1985). This line of cases has been displaced by more recent
    Supreme Court decisions holding that this kind of error is reviewed for
    harmlessness, even in a criminal case. See Skilling v. United States, 
    561 U.S. 358
    , 414 (2010); Hedgpeth v. Pulido, 
    555 U.S. 57
    , 59 (2008) (per curiam).
    32                                                     No. 13-3532
    the third was a presentation by Schoenholz at Household’s
    annual “Investor Relations Conference.”
    1. Household
    The prejudice analysis is easiest for Household, so we’ll
    start there. The company stipulated that it “made” all state-
    ments in its SEC filings and press releases. That leaves only the
    three false statements delivered by the three executives.
    Nothing in Janus undid the long-standing rule that “[a]
    corporation is liable for statements by employees who have
    apparent authority to make them.” Makor Issues & Rights, Ltd.
    v. Tellabs, Inc., 
    513 F.3d 702
    , 708 (7th Cir. 2008) (citing Am. Soc.
    of Mech. Eng’rs, Inc. v. Hydrolevel Corp., 
    456 U.S. 556
    , 568 (1982));
    see also Fulton Cnty. Emps. Ret. Sys. v. MGIC Inv. Corp., 
    675 F.3d 1047
    , 1051 (7th Cir. 2012) (noting that executives speak for
    themselves and for their organization). The instructional error
    clearly did not prejudice Household.
    2. Aldinger
    Aldinger concedes that he “made” all the statements in
    Household’s SEC filings and in his own presentation to
    Goldman Sachs. The plaintiffs claim that Aldinger also agrees
    that he “made” the statements in the press releases, but we
    can’t find that concession anywhere in the record.
    We’re hesitant to hold as a matter of law that a CEO
    “makes” all statements contained in a company press release,
    as that term was narrowly defined in Janus. We haven’t been
    No. 13-3532                                                   33
    directed to evidence showing that Aldinger’s signature or
    name appeared in the press releases in the sense of an attribu-
    tion. See 
    Janus, 131 S. Ct. at 2302
    (“[I]n the ordinary case,
    attribution within a statement … is strong evidence that a
    statement was made by—and only by—the party to whom it
    is attributed.”); cf. Peterson v. Winston & Strawn LLP, 
    729 F.3d 750
    , 752 (7th Cir. 2013) (noting that the defendant law firm
    would probably not be liable for the contents of a circular it
    helped prepare because it “did not sign the document or
    warrant the truth of its contents”). Nor does it appear that he
    actually delivered the statements in the press releases
    himself—say, for example, by reading them at a press confer-
    ence. See 
    Janus, 131 S. Ct. at 2302
    (“One ‘makes’ a statement by
    stating it.”). Absent either attribution or actual delivery, the
    Janus inquiry turns on control. 
    Id. at 2303
    (“[T]he rule we adopt
    today [is] that the maker of a statement is the entity with
    authority over the content of the statement and whether and
    how to communicate it.”).
    As CEO, Aldinger of course had authority over the press
    releases in the sense that he could have exercised control over
    their content. But if that were enough to satisfy Janus, then
    CEOs would be liable for any statements made by their
    employees acting within the scope of their employment. That
    wouldn’t square with the Court’s reminder about “the narrow
    scope that we must give the implied private right of action”
    under Rule 10b-5. 
    Id. Instead, as
    we understand Janus, Aldinger
    must have actually exercised control over the content of the
    press releases and whether and how they were communicated.
    That’s an inherently fact-bound inquiry, and it can’t be
    answered on this record. Accordingly, as to Aldinger’s liability
    34                                                    No. 13-3532
    for the press releases, the Janus error was prejudicial, and he is
    entitled to a new trial.
    The error was not prejudicial as to Aldinger’s liability for
    Gilmer’s false statement to the media, however. The evidence
    at trial clearly established that Aldinger “made” this statement
    in the sense meant by Janus. Aldinger drafted the statement in
    response to growing protests about Household’s predatory
    lending practices, and he sent it to various executives, includ-
    ing Gilmer, in an e-mail that said, “Attached to this [e-mail] is
    our media holding statement … .” Gilmer simply read the
    statement verbatim to the media. As the CEO and the actual
    author of the statement, Aldinger had the “ultimate authority”
    over its content and whether and how to communicate it, the
    touchstone of Janus. 
    Id. at 2302.
        The defendants contend that the question of prejudice must
    be considered in light of the jury’s findings on scienter. They
    note, for example, that the jury found Household and Aldinger
    responsible for “making” the Gilmer statement knowingly,
    while Gilmer, who actually delivered it, was found to have
    made it recklessly. The defendants suggest that this kind of
    combination is impossible after Janus. We do not see why.
    Nothing in Janus precludes a single statement from having
    multiple makers. See In re Pfizer Inc. Sec. Litig., 
    936 F. Supp. 2d 252
    , 268–69 (S.D.N.Y. 2013); City of 
    Pontiac, 875 F. Supp. 2d at 374
    ; City of Roseville Emps.’ Ret. Sys. v. EnergySolutions, Inc.,
    
    814 F. Supp. 2d 395
    , 417 (S.D.N.Y. 2011). And it’s not illogical
    to conclude that Aldinger, who wrote the statement and
    instructed Gilmer to deliver it, acted knowingly, while Gilmer,
    who simply parroted it, was merely reckless as to its falsity.
    No. 13-3532                                                    35
    That leaves the presentation by Schoenholz at the Investor
    Relations Conference. The plaintiffs argue that Aldinger’s
    presence in the room, and his participation in a question-and-
    answer session afterward, demonstrate that he controlled the
    content of the presentation, and that’s enough to satisfy Janus.
    We agree that post-Janus, liability for “making” a false state-
    ment can be established by inferences drawn from surrounding
    circumstances. But we can’t say with confidence that
    Aldinger’s actions at the conference satisfy the Janus standard.
    They may, but a properly instructed jury might conclude
    otherwise.
    Finally, the plaintiffs argue that the Janus error cannot have
    prejudiced Aldinger because he was found secondarily liable
    under § 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act, which provides
    that “[e]very person who … controls any person liable under
    any provision of this chapter … shall also be liable jointly and
    severally with and to the same extent as such controlled
    person.” 15 U.S.C. § 78t(a). The jury found, for purposes of
    § 20(a), that Aldinger and Schoenholz were controlling persons
    with respect to each other and with respect to Household and
    Gilmer. Because Household issued the press releases and
    Schoenholz gave the presentation, this means that Aldinger is
    secondarily liable for their statements.
    Even so, Aldinger may have been affected by the jury’s
    allocation of responsibility for the plaintiffs’ losses. When
    multiple defendants are found liable, the jury is required to
    apportion fault between them. 
    Id. § 78u-4(f)(3).
    The jury
    allocated 55% responsibility to Household, 20% to Aldinger,
    15% to Schoenholz, and 10% to Gilmer. With a proper
    36                                                                  No. 13-3532
    instruction on what it means to “make” a false statement, the
    jury might allocate responsibility differently.13
    Accordingly, Aldinger is entitled to a new trial on whether
    he “made” the false statements in Household’s press releases
    and in Schoenholz’s presentation at the Investor Relations
    Conference.
    3. Schoenholz
    Schoenholz’s situation is almost identical to Aldinger’s. He
    concedes that he “made” the false statements in the SEC filing
    and in his own presentation at the Investor Relations Confer-
    ence. He was not found liable for Gilmer’s statement to the
    media. That leaves only the press releases and Aldinger’s
    presentation to Goldman Sachs. For the reasons already
    13
    How exactly this would affect Aldinger legally is somewhat complicated.
    Liability is generally assigned proportionately using the jury’s determina-
    tion of responsibility, see 15 U.S.C. § 78u-4(f)(2)(B), but a defendant can be
    jointly and severally liable if he knowingly violated the law, see 
    id. § 78u-4(f)(2)(A).
    The jury found him liable for one knowing violation (the
    one we’ve just described), though it’s not clear whether that makes him
    jointly and severally liable for all misstatements or only the one he
    knowingly made. See Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Credit Suisse First Bos. (USA),
    Inc., 
    482 F.3d 372
    , 404–07 (5th Cir. 2007). Nor is it clear how proportional
    liability and § 20(a) interact. See Laperriere v. Vesta Ins. Grp., Inc., 
    526 F.3d 715
    (11th Cir. 2008) (per curiam). We don’t need to resolve these issues because
    even if Aldinger is jointly and severally liable for all 17 misstatements—
    either through § 78u-4(f)(2)(A) or § 20(a) or some combination thereof—he
    is still entitled to seek contribution from the other defendants. See Musick,
    Peeler & Garrett v. Emp’rs Ins. of Wausau, 
    508 U.S. 286
    (1993). So the size of
    his share of responsibility matters.
    No. 13-3532                                                    37
    discussed, Schoenholz is entitled to a new trial on whether he
    “made” those particular false statements, as that term was
    defined in Janus.
    4. Gilmer
    As for Gilmer, he actually delivered only one of the
    17 actionable false statements. The plaintiffs argue that he was
    also a “maker” of the false statements in the SEC filings and
    press releases because as a high-ranking officer, he reviewed
    and approved them. But the same could have been said for the
    investment advisor in Janus. And as we’ve already explained,
    Janus can’t be ignored simply because Gilmer is a corporate
    insider. So for all but the statement to the media that he himself
    delivered, the Janus error prejudiced Gilmer.
    *   *   *
    To summarize, Aldinger is entitled to a new trial to deter-
    mine whether he was the “maker,” in the Janus sense, of the
    false statements in Household’s press releases and
    Schoenholz’s presentation. Schoenholz is entitled to a new trial
    to determine whether he “made” the false statements in the
    press releases and in Aldinger’s presentation to Goldman
    Sachs. Gilmer is entitled to a new trial to determine whether he
    “made” any of the actionable false statements beyond the one
    he personally delivered to the media.
    For clarity’s sake, we add that the defendants may not
    relitigate whether any of the 17 statements were false or
    material. The jury’s secondary liability findings also remain
    undisturbed. Those issues were not challenged on appeal and
    38                                                    No. 13-3532
    do not need to be retried. Of course, the plaintiffs likewise can’t
    relitigate the other 23 statements. The new trial should focus on
    whether the three executives “made” the particular statements
    we’ve identified and whether they did so knowingly or
    recklessly. The new jury will also have to reallocate responsi-
    bility between the four defendants.
    C. Reliance
    Finally, the defendants argue that the district court’s
    Phase II rulings deprived them of a meaningful opportunity to
    rebut the presumption of reliance. Reliance on a misrepresenta-
    tion (sometimes called “transaction causation”) is an essential
    element of a Rule 10b-5 action, but the Supreme Court has
    recognized a rebuttable presumption of reliance for anyone
    who purchased a security in an efficient market. See Basic Inc. v.
    Levinson, 
    485 U.S. 224
    (1988); see also Halliburton, 
    134 S. Ct. 2398
    (reaffirming Basic, but holding that defendants can rebut the
    presumption at the class-certification stage). The presumption
    recognized in Basic is premised on the “fraud on the market”
    theory, which posits that “in an open and developed securities
    market, the price of a company’s stock is determined by the
    available material information regarding the company and its
    business. … Misleading statements will therefore defraud
    purchasers of stock even if the purchasers do not directly rely
    on the misstatements.” 
    Basic, 485 U.S. at 241
    –42 (internal
    quotation marks omitted).
    To invoke the presumption, the plaintiffs must prove:
    “(1) that the alleged misrepresentations were publicly known,
    (2) that they were material, (3) that the stock traded in an
    No. 13-3532                                                     39
    efficient market, and (4) that the plaintiff traded the stock
    between the time the misrepresentations were made and when
    the truth was revealed.” 
    Halliburton, 134 S. Ct. at 2408
    . There’s
    no dispute that these prerequisites were met here.
    The Basic presumption is a strong one. The Supreme Court
    noted that it’s “hard to imagine that there ever is a buyer or
    seller who does not rely on market integrity. Who would
    knowingly roll the dice in a crooked crap game?” 
    Basic, 485 U.S. at 246
    –47 (quoting Schlanger v. Four-Phase Sys. Inc.,
    
    555 F. Supp. 535
    , 538 (S.D.N.Y. 1982)). Even so, the presump-
    tion can be rebutted by “[a]ny showing that severs the link
    between the alleged misrepresentation and either the price
    received (or paid) by the plaintiff, or his decision to trade at a
    fair market price.” 
    Halliburton, 134 S. Ct. at 2408
    (quoting 
    Basic, 485 U.S. at 248
    ).
    Basic identified three circumstances in which the presump-
    tion might be rebutted. First, if “‘market makers’ were privy to
    the truth,” then the price would not be affected by misrepre-
    sentations. 
    Basic, 485 U.S. at 248
    . Similarly, if news of the truth
    had “entered the market and dissipated the effects of the
    misstatements, those who traded … after the corrective
    statements would have no direct or indirect connection with
    the fraud.” 
    Id. at 248–49.
    (These two methods of rebutting the
    presumption are sometimes called “truth on the market”
    defenses.) Finally, defendants may rebut the Basic presumption
    by showing that individual plaintiffs traded “without relying
    on the integrity of the market.” 
    Id. at 249.
    “For example, a
    plaintiff who believed … statements were false … and … that
    [the securities were] artificially underpriced, but sold …
    40                                                     No. 13-3532
    [anyway] because of other unrelated concerns, … could not be
    said to have relied on the integrity of a price he knew had been
    manipulated.” 
    Id. In Halliburton
    the Supreme Court summarized these
    examples as follows:
    [I]f a defendant could show that the alleged
    misrepresentation did not, for whatever reason,
    actually affect the market price, or that a plaintiff
    would have bought or sold the stock even had he
    been aware that the stock’s price was tainted by
    fraud, then the presumption of reliance would
    not 
    apply. 134 S. Ct. at 2408
    .
    The defendants argue that the district court’s Phase II
    procedures deprived them of a meaningful opportunity to
    rebut the presumption for most class members. Resolving this
    argument requires some additional procedural background.
    1. Phase II Procedures
    In Phase I the jury addressed all issues that were appropri-
    ate for class-wide resolution—e.g., whether any of the
    40 possible false statements were actionable misrepresenta-
    tions, whether they were material, who was liable for which
    misrepresentations, and how much inflation the actionable
    misrepresentations caused in the stock price. Phase II ad-
    dressed the remaining issues—e.g., reliance questions and the
    calculation of individual class members’ damages.
    No. 13-3532                                                41
    The defendants wanted to conduct substantial discovery
    during Phase II in an attempt to rebut the presumption of
    reliance for each class member. Initially, however, the judge
    significantly limited the scope of this discovery. He reasoned
    that the first two methods of rebutting the Basic presump-
    tion—either showing that the market was privy to the truth all
    along or that the truth had entered the market and dissipated
    the effects of the misstatements—had already been rejected by
    the jury in Phase I. The only remaining way to rebut the
    presumption was for the defendants to show that individual
    plaintiffs bought or sold Household stock without relying on
    the integrity of the market.
    To streamline discovery on that question, the judge
    required all class members to answer a preliminary interroga-
    tory:
    If you had known at the time of your purchase of
    Household stock that defendants’ false and
    misleading statements had the effect of inflating
    the price of Household[’s] stock and thereby
    caused you to pay more for Household stock
    than you should have paid, would you have still
    purchased the stock at the inflated price you
    paid? YES__ NO__.
    If class members answered this question “no,” then it did not
    matter how or why they purchased Household’s stock (e.g., via
    a trading algorithm or as part of a hedging strategy) because
    they bought at the market price on the assumption that there
    was no fraud cooked into the price. Only if a class member
    answered “yes” would the defendants be permitted additional
    42                                                  No. 13-3532
    discovery. The court thought this protocol would “sensibly
    resolve the tension between the rebuttable presumption of
    reliance and the practicalities and purposes behind [class
    actions].”
    The defendants objected and asked the judge to reconsider,
    arguing that this procedure unreasonably limited their ability
    to rebut the presumption of reliance. The judge reversed
    course and allowed Phase II discovery to proceed while the
    class members returned their answers to the preliminary
    question. The defendants asked for a period of 120 days to
    conduct this discovery. The judge granted the request. The
    defendants then served 98 class members with document
    requests, interrogatories, and deposition notices. Among other
    things, these discovery requests sought “all documents that
    you reviewed or relied upon in making any decision to engage
    in any transaction with respect to Household securities.”
    The plaintiffs objected that the requests were harassing and
    far too broad, and that much of the information sought was
    irrelevant. The court agreed that the requests were overly
    broad and unnecessary, noting that class members “would
    have to list every issue of the Wall Street Journal that every
    employee of that particular institution that dealt in trades read
    on the subway on the way in to work and back.” So the judge
    limited the defendants to asking class members about any
    nonpublic information they relied on in deciding whether to
    buy or sell Household stock. The judge also permitted the
    defendants to ask about trading strategies and similar matters,
    provided the questions were specific and not overly burden-
    some.
    No. 13-3532                                                 43
    As for depositions, the defendants had earlier advised the
    court that they would need Phase II depositions from only 10
    to 15 large institutional investors. They could not explain why
    they now sought to depose 98 class members, so the judge
    imposed a limit of 15 depositions.
    Following the court’s limiting order, the defendants served
    revised written discovery on about 100 class members asking
    about trading strategies, communications with Household, and
    any nonpublic information they relied on. They also deposed
    12 large institutional investors. At the end of the 120-day
    discovery period, they asked for more time, even though the
    judge had indicated at the beginning that he was not inclined
    to grant any extension. The judge denied the request.
    When the time period for answering the court’s preliminary
    question expired, a large number of class members still had not
    yet responded. The plaintiffs argued they should not be
    required to answer the question, or alternatively, should be
    given more time. The judge allowed the plaintiffs to send the
    question a second time and divided the class members into two
    groups: class members with claims larger than $250,000 and
    class members with claims below that amount. Class members
    with claims larger than $250,000 would be required to answer
    the court’s question.
    For these larger claims, the case would proceed as follows.
    If a class member answered “no”—that he wouldn’t have
    bought the stock had he known it was inflated—and discovery
    had not produced any evidence indicating otherwise, then the
    class member was entitled to judgment because there was no
    triable issue as to reliance. If a class member answered “yes,”
    44                                                        No. 13-3532
    then reliance would be resolved in a Phase II trial. And if a
    class member failed to answer the question, then the defen-
    dants were entitled to judgment as to that claim.
    The second response period yielded the following results:
    10,902 claimants answered “no” to the court’s question (these
    are the claims at issue on this appeal);14 133 claimants answered
    “yes”; and 2,476 claimants failed to answer the question.
    Approximately 30,000 claims remain unresolved. Most of these
    are claims of class members who failed to answer the court’s
    question or claims valued at less than $250,000.
    2. The Defendants’ Arguments
    The defendants lodge a general objection that the process
    we’ve just described unreasonably interfered with their ability
    to rebut the presumption of reliance. For the most part,
    however, they don’t specify what the court should have done
    differently.
    The defendants’ primary challenge relates to the phrasing
    of the preliminary question sent to class members. Instead of
    asking class members whether they would have purchased
    Household’s stock if they had known that the price was inflated,
    the defendants say that class members should have been asked
    whether they would have transacted if they had known that the
    statements were false. They argue that the court’s choice of
    14
    The $2.46 billion judgment—entered pursuant to Rule 54(b)—reflects
    claims totaling $1.48 billion plus $986 million of prejudgment interest.
    No. 13-3532                                                     45
    phrasing “impermissibly baked the Basic presumption into
    [the] question.”
    We disagree. The court’s question accurately reflects the
    Supreme Court’s description of how the Basic presumption can
    be rebutted. As the Court noted in Halliburton, “if a defendant
    could show that … a plaintiff would have bought or sold the
    stock even had he been aware that the stock’s price was tainted by
    fraud, then the presumption of reliance would not 
    apply.” 134 S. Ct. at 2408
    (emphasis added). Moreover, the defendants’
    preferred phrasing would have swept in too many class
    members. Some investors may have purchased Household’s
    stock even if they had known the truth behind the defendants’
    misrepresentations, but they would not have paid the price they
    did. These investors would have to answer “yes” to the
    defendants’ version of the question. But Basic was very clear
    that the way to rebut the presumption is to show that the
    investor would have paid the same price:
    Any showing that severs the link between the
    alleged misrepresentation and either the price
    received (or paid) by the plaintiff, or his decision
    to trade at a fair market price, will be sufficient to
    rebut the presumption of reliance. … For exam-
    ple, a plaintiff who believed that Basic’s state-
    ments were false … , and who consequently
    believed that Basic stock was artificially under-
    priced, but sold his shares nevertheless … , could
    not be said to have relied on the integrity of a
    price he knew had been manipulated.
    
    Basic, 485 U.S. at 248
    –49.
    46                                                  No. 13-3532
    The defendants also generally object to the limitations
    placed on Phase II discovery. This is a nonstarter. The defen-
    dants were allowed to serve written discovery on as many
    class members as they wanted. And in light of the focus of the
    rebuttal inquiry, it was reasonable to limit the scope of discov-
    ery to class members’ trading strategies and any nonpublic
    information they relied on in deciding to purchase Household
    stock. As for depositions, the defendants had earlier advised
    the judge that 10 to 15 would be enough; they were allowed 15.
    Finally, the defendants argue that for most class members,
    a “no” answer to the preliminary question was “dispositive as
    to whether the presumption could be rebutted.” This is
    problematic, they say, because the court’s question was
    essentially meaningless—all class members could see how they
    needed to respond in order to recover. The question is imper-
    fect, to be sure, but not quite so meaningless as the defendants
    suggest. Class members were required to answer under
    penalty of perjury, and a number of them answered “yes.” An
    even greater number failed to respond; some may have done
    so knowing they would have to answer “yes.” True, the vast
    majority answered “no,” but that’s not unexpected given the
    strength of the Basic presumption. See 
    Basic, 485 U.S. at 246
    –47;
    
    Schleicher, 618 F.3d at 682
    .
    In any event, the preliminary question was not necessarily
    the end of the inquiry. Class members were entitled to judg-
    ment only if they answered “no” and discovery hadn’t turned
    anything up. The preliminary question was a useful tool for
    efficiently resolving most claims. As for the rest, discovery
    No. 13-3532                                                   47
    allowed the defendants to “attempt to pick off the occasional
    class member.” 
    Halliburton, 134 S. Ct. at 2412
    .
    Because the proceedings below were neatly divided into
    two phases, there’s no need to redo anything in Phase II, even
    though we are remanding for a new trial on certain issues from
    Phase I. Assuming the plaintiffs can adequately prove loss
    causation, the district court may rely on the results from
    Phase II.
    III. Conclusion
    In sum, the defendants are entitled to a new trial limited to
    the two issues we’ve identified here: loss causation and
    whether the three executives “made” certain of the false
    statements under Janus’s narrow definition of that term. We
    reject all other claims of error.
    REVERSED AND REMANDED.