United States v. Pedro Payano , 930 F.3d 186 ( 2019 )


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  •                                      PRECEDENTIAL
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE THIRD CIRCUIT
    _______________
    No. 18-1153
    _______________
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
    v.
    PEDRO RAMON PAYANO,
    also known as
    JOEMANUEL NUNEZ-SUAREZ,
    Appellant
    _______________
    On Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania
    (E.D. Pa. No. 2-17-cr-0238-001)
    District Judge: Honorable R. Barclay Surrick
    _______________
    Argued: January 23, 2019
    Before: JORDAN, KRAUSE, and ROTH, Circuit Judges
    (Opinion Filed: July 10, 2019)
    Abigail E. Horn     [ARGUED]
    Brett G. Sweitzer
    Federal Community Defender Office for the Eastern District
    of Pennsylvania
    601 Walnut Street
    The Curtis Center, Suite 540 West
    Philadelphia, PA 19106
    Counsel for Appellant Pedro Ramon Payano
    Bernadette A. McKeon        [ARGUED]
    Jennifer B. Jordan
    Office of United States Attorney
    615 Chestnut Street
    Suite 1250
    Philadelphia, PA 19106
    Counsel for Appellee United States of America
    _______________
    OPINION OF THE COURT
    _______________
    KRAUSE, Circuit Judge.
    Appellant Pedro Ramon Payano appeals his sentence on
    the ground that the District Court’s mistaken belief as to the
    applicable statutory maximum constitutes plain error. In his
    view, this error warrants resentencing by way of analogy to
    2
    Molina-Martinez v. United States where the Supreme Court
    held that an incorrectly calculated United States Sentencing
    Guidelines range presumptively satisfies the prejudice prong
    of plain-error review because of its “centrality” to a district
    court’s sentence. 
    136 S. Ct. 1338
    , 1346 (2016). We agree that
    there was error but decline to extend the presumption of
    prejudice recognized in Molina-Martinez to this context
    because a mistaken understanding about the applicable
    statutory range, without more, has far less bearing on the actual
    sentence imposed than a Guidelines-calculation error.
    However, because we conclude on this record that the error did
    affect Payano’s substantial rights and without correction would
    seriously affect the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of
    judicial proceedings, we will vacate his sentence and remand
    for resentencing.
    I.     Background
    Payano is a citizen of the Dominican Republic who first
    came to the United States legally with his parents at age twelve.
    In 1998, at age eighteen, he pleaded guilty to first degree
    possession of a controlled substance in New York state court,
    and in 2001, after completing his sentence of three years to life
    imprisonment, he was removed based on that drug possession
    conviction. Although Payano illegally reentered the United
    States in 2012, his presence was not discovered until 2017
    when a Pennsylvania state trooper pulled over his vehicle.
    After an extended traffic stop, the trooper obtained consent to
    search the vehicle and found a kilogram of cocaine hidden in
    an interior panel.
    A grand jury in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania
    indicted Payano for illegal reentry, in violation of 8 U.S.C.
    3
    § 1326, and possession with intent to distribute 500 grams or
    more of cocaine, in violation of 21 U.S.C. § 841(a)(1),
    (b)(1)(B)(II). On Payano’s pretrial motion to suppress, the
    District Court agreed with him that the drugs found in the
    vehicle were fruit of an unconstitutional search because the
    trooper lacked reasonable suspicion to prolong the stop. The
    Government then dismissed the drug charge, and Payano
    pleaded guilty to illegal reentry. Because Payano’s 1998
    conviction was for drug possession and not drug distribution,
    it qualified under federal law as a felony, but not an aggravated
    felony, for purposes of the illegal reentry offense.
    Accordingly, Payano’s plea was to a violation of 8 U.S.C.
    § 1326(b)(1), which applies to illegal reentry following a
    “felony (other than an aggravated felony)” and carries a
    maximum sentence of ten years, and not 8 U.S.C. § 1326(b)(2),
    which applies to illegal reentry following an “aggravated
    felony” and carries a maximum sentence of twenty years.
    In anticipation of sentencing, the United States
    Probation Office prepared a Presentence Report (PSR). That
    report correctly calculated the applicable Guidelines range as
    24-30 months’ imprisonment and correctly listed the statutory
    maximum term of imprisonment as ten years. However,
    instead of citing § 1326(b)(1) as the offense of conviction, it
    cited § 1326(b)(2). Although the PSR made no reference to
    illegal reentry following an aggravated felony nor made
    mention of § 1326(b)(2)’s twenty-year maximum, the citation
    error was compounded when the Government argued in its
    sentencing memorandum seeking an upward variance that
    Payano had been “convicted of an aggravated felony prior to
    his deportation,” JA 69 n.2, and when it requested at the
    sentencing hearing that the District Court “correct” the PSR to
    reflect that Payano had pleaded guilty to “aggravated reentry,”
    4
    carrying a twenty-year statutory maximum sentence. JA 92-
    93. The District Court ordered that the PSR be amended to
    reflect that change—a “correction” to which Payano’s counsel
    agreed. JA 92. Neither the District Court nor the parties
    mentioned it again during the proceedings, but at the
    conclusion of the hearing, the District Court granted the
    Government’s motion for an upward variance. It then imposed
    a four-year sentence, 18 months above the Guidelines range,
    yet well below the applicable ten-year statutory maximum and,
    a fortiori, well below the twenty-year maximum that the
    District Court believed applicable.
    II.    Discussion1
    Payano argues, for the first time on appeal, that he is
    entitled to resentencing because the District Court plainly erred
    by accepting that the applicable statutory maximum was
    twenty, as opposed to ten, years’ imprisonment.2 As the
    Government conceded at oral argument that our review is for
    plain error under Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 52(b),3
    1
    The District Court had jurisdiction under 18 U.S.C.
    § 3231. We have jurisdiction pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 1291 and
    18 U.S.C. § 3742(e).
    2
    Because we will vacate Payano’s sentence, we need
    not address his two additional arguments on appeal: (1) that the
    District Court procedurally erred by not adequately explaining
    its upward variance, and (2) that the imposition of a four-year
    sentence was substantively unreasonable.
    3
    In its briefing before argument, the Government took
    the position that Payano’s argument on this point was waived
    rather than forfeited, and thus was not entitled to plain error
    5
    we must decide whether (1) an error occurred, (2) the error is
    “plain,” and (3) it “affect[s] substantial rights.” United States
    v. Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 732 (1993) (alteration in original); Fed.
    R. Crim. P. 52(b). If those three conditions are met, a court of
    appeals should exercise its discretion to correct the error if it
    would “seriously affect[] the fairness, integrity or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.” 
    Olano, 507 U.S. at 732
    (quoting United States v. Young, 
    470 U.S. 1
    , 15 (1985)).
    Payano has the burden of demonstrating that the four Olano
    factors are met. 
    Id. at 734-35.
    Here, the first two are clearly satisfied. There is no
    dispute that the District Court erred in finding that Payano
    pleaded guilty to illegal reentry following an “aggravated
    felony,” in violation of 8 U.S.C. § 1326(a) and (b)(2), and that
    review. Where a party “invite[s] the District Court[’s]” error
    and the Court proceeds in reliance on that agreement, we have
    navigated the murky waters of forfeiture versus waiver in view
    of the context and extent of the affirmative representation.
    Robinson v. First State Comm. Action Agency, 
    920 F.3d 182
    ,
    187-89 (3d Cir. 2019) (holding appellee waived rather than
    forfeited its argument where it “[n]ot only . . . fail[ed] to object,
    [but also] specifically assented to” the error); cf. Gov’t of the
    V.I. v. Rosa, 
    399 F.3d 283
    , 292-93 (3d Cir. 2005) (holding
    “repeated acquiescence” to an erroneous jury instruction did
    not rise to the level of a knowing and intentional waiver). We
    need not undertake that analysis here, however, in view of the
    Government’s concession at oral argument that plain error
    review does apply.
    6
    the error was “plain.”4 The question presented by this case
    arises at Olano’s third prong: whether the District Court’s error
    “affect[ed] [Payano’s] substantial 
    rights.” 507 U.S. at 732
    .
    Below, we address that issue, and because we conclude his
    substantial rights were affected, we then consider whether,
    under Olano’s fourth prong, the error, if uncorrected, would
    seriously affected the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of
    judicial proceedings.
    A.     Whether the Error Affected Payano’s Substantial
    Rights
    For an error to affect a defendant’s substantial rights, it
    must have “prejudiced [him], either specifically or
    presumptively,” i.e., “[i]t must have affected the outcome of
    the district court proceedings.” 
    Id. at 734,
    739. Demonstrating
    “a prejudicial effect on the outcome of a judicial proceeding”
    ordinarily requires a “reasonable probability” that, but for the
    claimed error, “the result of the proceeding would have been
    different.” United States v. Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    ,
    81-82 (2004) (quoting United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    ,
    682 (1985)). But “reasonable probability” in this context “is
    not the same as, and should not be confused with, a
    4
    While Payano’s conviction under New York Penal
    Code § 220.21 constitutes a state felony, “[m]ere possession is
    not . . . a felony under the federal [Controlled Substance Act]
    CSA,” Lopez v. Gonzales, 
    549 U.S. 47
    , 53 (2006) (citing 21
    U.S.C. § 844(a)), and because the categorical approach
    requires it to be a drug trafficking crime under the CSA to
    qualify as an “aggravated felony,” 8 U.S.C. §§ 1101(a)(43);
    1326(b)(2); 18 U.S.C. § 924(c)(2), Payano’s 1998 conviction
    does not categorically constitute an “aggravated felony.”
    7
    requirement that a defendant prove by a preponderance of the
    evidence that but for [the] error things would have been
    different.” 
    Id. at 83
    n.9. Rather, as with the prejudice standard
    articulated in Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 694
    (1984), and the materiality standard under Brady v. Maryland,
    
    373 U.S. 83
    , 87 (1963), see Giglio v. United States, 
    405 U.S. 150
    , 154 (1972), it means only that a defendant must “satisfy
    the judgment of the reviewing court, informed by the entire
    record, that the probability of a different result is ‘sufficient to
    undermine confidence in the outcome’ of the proceeding,”
    Dominguez 
    Benitez, 542 U.S. at 83
    (citing 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    ; 
    Bagley, 473 U.S. at 682
    ); accord United States v.
    Corso, 
    549 F.3d 921
    , 929-30 (3d Cir. 2008) (same).5
    Here, then, Payano must show that but for the District
    Court’s erroneous understanding of the applicable statutory
    maximum, the likelihood of a sentence shorter than four years
    5
    It may be, as Justice Souter has observed, that the “use
    of the term ‘probability’ raises an unjustifiable risk of
    misleading courts into treating it as akin to the more
    demanding standard, ‘more likely than not,’” and that
    “‘significant possibility’ would do better at capturing the
    degree to which the [error] would place the actual result in
    question, sufficient to warrant overturning a conviction or
    sentence.” Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 298 (1999)
    (Souter, J., dissenting). For now, however, the Court and the
    Courts of Appeals continue to use the term, clarifying that
    “reasonable probability” does not mean more likely than not.
    Id.; accord United States v. Vargem, 
    747 F.3d 724
    , 728 (9th
    Cir. 2014); United States v. Groysman, 
    766 F.3d 147
    , 157 (2d
    Cir. 2014); United States v. Carrasco, 
    540 F.3d 43
    , 53 (1st Cir.
    2008).
    8
    is “sufficient to undermine [our] confidence” in the sentencing
    proceeding. Dominguez 
    Benitez, 542 U.S. at 83
    . Payano
    argues that he satisfies that standard, either because (1) the
    District Court’s error is one that warrants a presumption of
    prejudice, or, alternatively, (2) the sentencing record reveals a
    “reasonable probability” that the error influenced the District
    Court. We address these arguments in turn.
    1.     The statutory-range error here does not
    give rise to a presumption of prejudice.
    In Molina-Martinez v. United States, 
    136 S. Ct. 1338
    (2016), the Supreme Court held that miscalculation of the
    applicable range under the United States Sentencing
    Guidelines “itself can, and most often will, be sufficient to
    show a reasonable probability of a different outcome absent the
    error.” 
    Id. at 1345.
    Payano asks this Court to extend that
    rebuttable presumption of prejudice for Guidelines-range
    errors to the statutory-range error here—specifically, to a
    district court’s mistaken belief as to the applicable statutory
    maximum. As the reasoning of Molina-Martinez highlights,
    however, marked differences between the relative significance
    in sentencing of the applicable Guidelines range and the
    statutory range counsel against such an extension. The Court
    there explained that a presumption of prejudice “must follow”
    from an error related to the Guidelines range because that error
    is “particularly serious” considering (a) “the centrality of the
    Guidelines in the sentencing process,” and (b) the reality that
    the Guidelines range has a “real and pervasive effect” upon the
    ultimate sentence imposed. 
    Id. at 1345-46;
    see also 
    id. at 1341
    (noting that most Courts of Appeals “have concluded that a
    district court’s application of an incorrect Guidelines range can
    9
    itself serve as evidence of an effect on substantial rights”). But
    neither consideration pertains to the statutory range.
    Unlike the Guidelines, which district courts are required
    to use as the “starting point” for sentencing, to “remain
    cognizant of . . . throughout the sentencing process,” and to
    “explain the decision to deviate from,” statutory ranges merely
    set the floor and the ceiling within which a district court must
    sentence, thereby functioning not to “anchor” the district
    court’s discretion, but rather to limit the extent to which a
    district court may permissibly stray from the Guidelines range.
    
    Molina-Martinez, 136 S. Ct. at 1345
    , 1349 (quoting Gall v.
    United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 49 (2007); Peugh v. United States,
    
    569 U.S. 530
    , 537, 541 (2013)).6
    As a result, it is no surprise that a Guidelines range and
    a statutory range do not have commensurate effects on the final
    sentence imposed. Whereas “[i]n most cases district courts . .
    . impose ‘either within-Guidelines sentences or sentences that
    depart downward from the Guidelines on the Government’s
    motion,’” 
    id. at 1346
    (quoting 
    Peugh, 569 U.S. at 543
    ) (citing
    U.S.S.C., 2014 Annual Report and 2014 Sourcebook of
    Federal Sentencing Statistics S–50 (19th ed.) (Table N)),
    statutory ranges are generally too expansive to exert significant
    6
    Indeed, a Guidelines range—if calculated correctly—
    will take account of the requirement that a Guidelines range
    cannot be “greater than the statutorily authorized maximum
    sentence.” U.S.S.G. § 5G1.1(c)(1); see United States v.
    Rivera-Cruz, 
    904 F.3d 324
    , 327-28 (3d Cir. 2018).
    10
    influence over the ultimate sentence imposed.7 And because a
    mistaken belief as to the applicable statutory range is far less
    likely than a Guidelines-range error to affect a sentence,
    Payano is hard-pressed to argue that a statutory-range error is
    alone “sufficient to show a reasonable probability of a different
    outcome.” 
    Molina-Martinez, 136 S. Ct. at 1345
    .8
    7
    For example, statutory ranges often cover decades and
    are identical across vast swaths of federal crimes. See, e.g., 18
    U.S.C. § 1343 (wire fraud; 0-20 years); 18 U.S.C. § 2113(a)
    (bank robbery; 0-20 years); 18 U.S.C. § 2339B(a)(1)
    (providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization;
    0-20 years). In addition, because defendants are often charged
    with multiple offenses for the same course of conduct, any of
    which district courts have discretion to impose either
    concurrently or consecutively, see 18 U.S.C. § 3584(a); Setser
    v. United States, 
    566 U.S. 231
    , 236 (2012), an aggregated
    statutory range could easily exceed a natural life span.
    8
    To be clear, these differences are a product of the way
    our modern sentencing system has evolved. Before the
    Guidelines, we had a “system of indeterminate sentencing,”
    whereby district judges’ discretion to determine the length of a
    defendant’s period of incarceration was constrained only by
    the applicable statutory range, which often spanned decades.
    Mistretta v. United States, 
    488 U.S. 361
    , 363 (1989). The
    “significant sentencing disparities among similarly situated
    offenders” that resulted from indeterminate sentencing led to
    the advent of the United States Sentencing Commission and its
    promulgation of the Sentencing Guidelines. Peugh v. United
    States, 
    569 U.S. 530
    , 535 (2013). Initially understood to bind
    district courts to impose a sentence within the applicable
    Guidelines range, the Guidelines were intended to achieve both
    “uniformity” and “proportionality in sentencing through a
    11
    Indeed, no Court of Appeals to date has accepted that
    argument. While we are the first to consider the significance
    of Molina-Martinez for an unpreserved error concerning the
    statutory range, we find persuasive the decisions of those
    courts that predated Molina-Martinez but addressed this issue
    against the backdrop of their own Circuit’s presumption of
    prejudice for Guidelines-range errors. See United States v.
    Goodwin, 
    717 F.3d 511
    , 520-21 (7th Cir. 2013); United States
    v. Story, 
    503 F.3d 436
    , 441 (6th Cir. 2007); see also United
    States v. Knight, 
    266 F.3d 203
    , 207 (3d Cir. 2001). For
    instance, the Sixth Circuit found no “persuasive analogy”
    between a Guidelines-range and statutory- range error,
    explaining that while the Guidelines “guide the district court
    toward an appropriate sentence,” statutory ranges merely
    “delineate[] the outer bounds of the district court’s discretion
    in imposing a penalty.” United States v. McCloud, 
    730 F.3d 600
    , 603 (6th Cir. 2013). And because an incorrect statutory
    range is not likely to “seriously affect the sentence a defendant
    receive[s],” remanding for resentencing “would be a useless
    exercise” absent some evidence of prejudice in the record. 
    Id. system that
    imposes appropriately different sentences for
    criminal conduct of different severity.” 
    Molina-Martinez, 136 S. Ct. at 1342
    (quoting Rita v. United States, 
    551 U.S. 338
    , 349
    (2007) (emphasis omitted)). While the Guidelines, of course,
    are no longer mandatory, see United States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
    , 244 (2005), their “centrality” to both the sentencing
    procedures that district courts employ and the ultimate
    sentences they impose continue to facilitate the uniformity and
    proportionality that statutory ranges alone were unable to
    achieve, 
    Molina-Martinez, 136 S. Ct. at 1345
    ; see 
    Peugh, 569 U.S. at 536-37
    .
    12
    The Seventh Circuit likewise declined to extend a
    presumption of prejudice where the district court’s sentence
    gave rise to “competing inferences” as to “what the sentencing
    judge might have done had she known that she was not bound
    by the ten-year minimum.” United States v. Currie, 
    739 F.3d 960
    , 965 (7th Cir. 2014). Instead, it “order[ed] a limited
    remand” to determine whether there was actual prejudice, i.e.,
    whether the district court would have imposed the same
    sentence absent the error.9 
    Id. at 967;
    cf. United States v.
    Williams, 
    742 F.3d 304
    , 306-07 (7th Cir. 2014) (presuming
    prejudice and declining to issue a limited remand, in favor of a
    full remand, in the context of a Guidelines range error).10
    9
    The statutory-range errors in McCloud and Currie
    differed from that present here in that they both involved a
    mistaken belief as to the applicable statutory minimum. In
    those cases, the district court had failed to retroactively apply
    the Fair Sentencing Act (FSA), as required by the Supreme
    Court in Dorsey v. United States, 
    567 U.S. 260
    , 280-81 (2012),
    which in each case would have lowered the applicable statutory
    minimum by five years. See 
    McCloud, 730 F.3d at 601-02
    (FSA lowered applicable statutory range from 5-40 years to 0-
    20 years); 
    Currie, 739 F.3d at 964
    (FSA lowered mandatory
    minimum from 10 years to 5 years). Notably, those courts
    declined to recognize a presumption of prejudice even though
    an error as to the existence or length of a mandatory minimum
    sentence is arguably far more prejudicial than an error as to an
    applicable statutory maximum that is not reached by the
    sentence imposed.
    10
    Additionally, while the D.C. Circuit had not expressly
    recognized a presumption of prejudice in the Guidelines
    context prior to Molina-Martinez, its decision in United States
    13
    Payano’s arguments in favor of extending the
    presumption of prejudice also are unavailing. He first contends
    that an erroneous statutory range is presumptively prejudicial
    at least in the context of 8 U.S.C. § 1326, the illegal reentry
    statute, because it contains a three-tiered sentencing
    “framework” with different statutory maxima keyed to
    criminal history and thus should be viewed, like the
    Guidelines, as “aim[ing] to embody” the sentencing factors
    articulated in 18 U.S.C. § 3553. Appellant’s Br. 25 (quoting
    
    Molina-Martinez, 136 S. Ct. at 1342
    ); see Tr. of Oral Arg.
    1:48:00-1:49:30.11 But each tier of that framework still covers
    a wide statutory range that, unlike the “set of elaborate, detailed
    Guidelines” considered in Molina-Martinez, cannot be said to
    narrowly tailor sentences to individual 
    defendants. 136 S. Ct. at 1342
    . Second, he argues that requiring evidence of prejudice
    would be unfair because “sentencing courts are customarily
    silent” when they impose a sentence within the statutory range,
    v. Watson, 
    476 F.3d 1020
    (D.C. Cir. 2007), also accords with
    our analysis. There, the district court mistakenly believed that
    the applicable statutory maximum was twenty as opposed to
    ten years, and the appellate court found plain error not by
    presuming prejudice but because statements in the record
    revealed that the district court was operating “under the
    misimpression [that] it was imposing a relatively lenient
    sentence” which “infected” the proceedings. 
    Id. at 1021,
    1024.
    11
    8 U.S.C. § 1326’s three-tiered framework includes a
    2-year statutory maximum for illegal reentry by a non-
    recidivist, 
    id. § 1326(a)(2),
    a 10-year statutory maximum for
    illegal reentry after a felony conviction, 
    id. § 1326(b)(1),
    and a
    20-year statutory maximum for illegal reentry after an
    aggravated felony conviction, 
    id. § 1326(b)(2).
    14
    Appellant’s Br. 28, just as they are when a sentence falls within
    the Guidelines range. But again, the Guidelines range imposes
    a far more significant constraint because a sentencing court
    must explain any deviation from them. Finally, Payano asserts
    that an erroneous statutory maximum, like a Guidelines
    miscalculation, gives rise to a procedural error because it
    precludes a sentencing court from considering “the kinds of
    sentences available,” as required under 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(3).
    But that argument rests on a mistaken premise because not all
    procedural errors are presumptively prejudicial. See, e.g.,
    United States v. Stevens, 
    223 F.3d 239
    , 246 (3d Cir. 2000)
    (declining to extend presumption of prejudice to violation of
    Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 32, which requires courts
    to “verify that the defendant has read and discussed the PSR
    with counsel”).
    In sum, unlike an erroneous Guidelines range, an
    erroneous statutory range is not “itself . . . sufficient to show a
    reasonable probability of a different outcome absent the error.”
    Molina-Martinez, 136 S Ct. at 1345. And without a
    presumption, a defendant must show actual prejudice to satisfy
    the third prong of the Olano test. Thus, we turn to the next
    question before us: whether, on this sentencing record, the
    possibility of a lesser sentence absent the statutory-range error
    is “‘sufficient to undermine [our] confidence in the outcome’
    of [his] proceeding.” Dominguez 
    Benitez, 542 U.S. at 83
    (citation omitted).
    2.      Payano has established actual prejudice.
    In the absence of a presumption of prejudice, a
    reviewing court’s determination as to whether a defendant has
    established actual prejudice on plain-error review, i.e., a
    15
    “reasonable probability” of a lower sentence, must be
    “informed by the entire record.” 
    Id. at 83
    ; see Molina-
    
    Martinez, 136 S. Ct. at 1351
    (Alito, J., concurring in part and
    concurring in the judgment) (“[T]here is no good reason to
    preclude defendants from showing prejudice via . . .
    circumstantial evidence” such as the parties’ “sentencing
    arguments.”). On this record—where the District Court
    sentenced Payano significantly above the top of the applicable
    Guidelines range, was repeatedly urged by the Government to
    vary upwards on account of a supposed prior “drug trafficking
    conviction,” and itself directed the PSR be amended to reflect
    a twenty-year statutory maximum—we cannot be confident
    that the four-year sentence the District Court imposed was not
    affected by its mistaken belief that it was sentencing Payano
    for “aggravated reentry.”
    Prominent in the record are the Government’s
    arguments in support of its request for an upward variance from
    the applicable Guidelines range. From the very first page of its
    sentencing memorandum, the Government pressed the point
    that Payano was “originally removed . . . following a drug
    trafficking conviction in New York.” JA 67-68. It then
    repeatedly reinforced that erroneous assertion, arguing, for
    example, that a variance was warranted to “take[] into account
    [Payano’s] unlawful return to the United States to engage in
    serious drug trafficking activities”; that he was engaged in “the
    very same behavior” that got him deported in the first place,
    JA 71; that Payano came back to the United States “to engage
    in the same drug business that caused his deportation,” JA 75;
    and that the ten-year statutory maximum in the PSR was
    “incorrect[] . . . [b]ecause [Payano] was convicted of an
    16
    aggravated felony prior to his deportation,” JA 69 n.2.12 The
    Government also emphasized how “serious” the prior
    conviction was, by noting both that “Payano was sentenced to
    3 years to lifetime imprisonment with lifetime parole,” JA 70-
    71, and that “the defendant’s criminal history and current
    conduct demonstrate[d] a willingness to commit serious crimes
    and defy court orders,” JA 71.
    The mistaken assertion that Payano’s original
    conviction was for drug trafficking also permeated the
    sentencing hearing, where the Government urged the District
    Court at the outset to “correct” the PSR to confirm that Payano
    had pleaded guilty to “aggravated reentry,” JA 92-93, and
    argued that the upward variance was warranted because
    Payano “came back to the United States to engage in the very
    same conduct that he was found on April 3, 2017 to be engaged
    in, trafficking in drugs,” JA 127. At the conclusion of the
    hearing, the District Court granted that variance, explaining
    that it was warranted in light of the fact that illegal reentry is a
    “serious crime” made all the “more serious” given “the very
    nature of this situation”—“[t]he reentry after deportation and
    the drugs that were involved in this situation.” JA 129-30.
    The Government contends that because the District
    Court only referenced the statutory maximum once at the
    sentencing hearing—and even then “only to accept the parties’
    12
    Other examples abound. E.g., JA 73 (“Because it was
    an aggravated felony, [Payano] was deported from the United
    States in January 2001.”); JA 73 (arguing that Payano “knew
    the consequences of his behavior because he had done it and
    been caught before”); JA 75 (“[Payano] became an aggravated
    felon and was deported.”).
    17
    representation that the PSR incorrectly stated that the statutory
    maximum was 10 rather than 20 years”—the error with regard
    to “[t]he statutory maximum penalty played no role in the
    court’s analysis or reasoning.” Gov’t Br. 22-23. Rather, it
    contends, as the District Court “repeatedly noted” at the
    sentencing hearing, its decision to vary upwards and impose an
    above-Guidelines “sentence was driven by the defendant’s
    [uncharged] drug trafficking activity after he returned to the
    United States.” Gov’t Br. 28.
    To be sure, there were permissible bases upon which
    the District Court may have exercised its discretion to impose
    an above-Guidelines sentence. See United States v. Berry, 
    553 F.3d 273
    , 279-80 (3d Cir. 2009) (holding sentencing courts are
    entitled to rely on facts so long as they are “proven by a
    preponderance of the evidence”). It was entitled to consider,
    for example, the “conduct underlying [his] dismissed [drug
    distribution] count,” United States v. Baird, 
    109 F.3d 856
    , 863
    (3d Cir. 1997), which, but for the Government’s decision to
    dismiss it after Payano’s successful suppression motion, could
    have subjected Payano to a five-year mandatory minimum
    sentence—a year longer than the sentence the District Court
    imposed, see 21 U.S.C. § 841(b)(1)(B)(ii).13 So too would it
    be permissible for the District Court to vary upwards based on
    the fact that Payano’s uncharged drug trafficking conduct
    mirrored the conduct underlying his prior conviction,
    including, as stated in the PSR, that the police previously had
    13
    In making those factual findings, the District Court
    relied on the testimony of Drug Enforcement Agency Special
    Agent Lisa Amoroso and Philadelphia Police Officer Luis
    Melendez regarding Payano’s post-arrest statements admitting
    that the kilogram of cocaine found in the vehicle was his.
    18
    also seized more than a kilogram of cocaine, as well as a loaded
    firearm, from a “trap in the driver’s side door of his vehicle,”
    Gov’t Br. 6 (citing PSR ¶ 27)—a fact to which Payano did not
    object. See United States v. Pollard, 
    986 F.2d 44
    , 46-47 (3d
    Cir. 1993) (“[A] sentencing court possesses great discretion in
    the conduct it may consider . . . even if the conduct was not
    proven at trial, but came from a presentence report.”) (citations
    omitted).
    These permissible considerations alone may have
    accounted for the District Court’s upward variance and, to the
    extent they did, the District Court on remand may well opt to
    re-impose the same exact sentence. But against the backdrop
    of the “entire record,” there is at least a “reasonable
    probability” that the four-year sentence was based on the
    District Court’s mistaken belief as to the applicable statutory
    maximum. Dominguez 
    Benitez, 542 U.S. at 83
    . And given the
    pervasiveness of the Government’s sentencing arguments that
    Payano had been convicted of “drug trafficking,” had pleaded
    guilty to an “aggravated felony,” and was subject to a
    “maximum sentence of 20 years’ imprisonment,” JA 69, 71,
    73, 75, 78, 92-93, we cannot be confident on this record that
    the District Court did not conflate the underlying drug
    trafficking conduct common to both Payano’s prior and instant
    convictions with the belief that his prior conviction had been
    for drug trafficking, which triggered a potential sentence twice
    as long and thus may have informed the extent of the upward
    variance. Because “we cannot say with complete confidence
    that the court would have imposed the same sentence
    regardless of the [erroneous statutory maximum],” 
    Currie, 739 F.3d at 966
    , we must conclude that the error “affect[ed]
    [Payano’s] substantial rights,” 
    Olano, 507 U.S. at 732
    ; cf.
    United States v. Watson, 
    476 F.3d 1020
    , 1024 (D.C. Cir. 2007)
    19
    (court had “no trouble seeing” the effect of the erroneous
    statutory maximum upon substantial rights where district court
    stated its sentence was “considerably less than the statutorily-
    available sentencing maximum”).
    B.     Whether the District Court’s Error Would
    Seriously Affect the Fairness, Integrity, or Public
    Reputation of Judicial Proceedings
    Even though Olano’s first three conditions are met, this
    Court will only exercise its discretion to correct a forfeited
    error if it “seriously affects the fairness, integrity or public
    reputation of judicial 
    proceedings.” 507 U.S. at 736
    (alteration
    omitted). Here, the Government has conceded that, should the
    Court find Payano’s substantial rights affected, this standard
    would be met and we should remand for resentencing. That is
    an appropriate concession given that, upon a showing of
    prejudice from a statutory-range error, a defendant is in a
    procedural posture functionally equivalent to that of a
    defendant with a Guidelines-range error, where prejudice is
    presumed, and in the latter context, the Supreme Court has
    observed: “[A] reasonable citizen [would] bear a rightly
    diminished view of the judicial process and its integrity if
    courts refused to correct obvious errors of their own devise that
    threaten to require individuals to linger longer in federal prison
    than the law demands.” Rosales-Mireles v. United States, 
    138 S. Ct. 1897
    , 1908 (2018) (quoting United States v. Sabillon–
    Umana, 
    772 F.3d 1328
    , 1333-34 (10th Cir. 2014) (Gorsuch,
    J.)). The Court also explained that while “Rule 52(b) should
    be exercised ‘sparingly’” for trial errors, 
    id. at 1909
    (quoting
    Jones v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 373
    , 389 (1999)), correcting
    sentencing errors “is far less burdensome than a retrial, or other
    20
    jury proceedings, and thus does not demand such a high degree
    of caution.” 
    Id. These considerations
    favor remand here, where we are
    unable to discern on this record whether the District Court
    granted the upward variance based on permissible
    considerations or on the Government’s unfounded argument
    that Payano’s previous offense was an aggravated felony—or
    on both. Thus, we agree that Payano has also met his burden
    of showing that the statutory-range error here, if not corrected,
    would “seriously affect[] the fairness, integrity or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.” 
    Olano, 507 U.S. at 732
    .
    III.   Conclusion
    For the foregoing reasons, we will vacate the District
    Court’s sentence and remand for resentencing.
    21