Martin Woolley v. Dave Rednour ( 2012 )


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  •                              In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 10-3550
    M ARTIN M. W OOLLEY,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    D AVE R EDNOUR,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Central District of Illinois.
    No. 4:09-cv-04084— Michael M. Mihm, Judge.
    A RGUED JUNE 3, 2011 — D ECIDED D ECEMBER 14, 2012
    Before E VANSŒ and W ILLIAMS, Circuit Judges, and C ONLEY,
    District Judge.ŒŒ
    Œ
    Circuit Judge Evans died on August 10, 2011, and did not
    participate in the decision of this case, which is being resolved
    by a quorum of the panel under 
    28 U.S.C. § 46
    (d).
    ŒŒ
    The Honorable William M. Conley, Chief Judge of the
    United States District Court for the Western District of Wiscon-
    sin, sitting by designation.
    2                                               No. 10-3550
    W ILLIAMS, Circuit Judge.     Martin M. Woolley was
    charged in Illinois state court with counts of murder,
    armed violence, armed robbery, and unlawful possession
    of a firearm by a felon, arising out the fatal shootings
    of two victims in 1995. After initially confessing, Martin
    later recanted, claiming he had falsely implicated
    himself in order to protect his wife, Marcia Woolley,
    who committed the murders out of jealousy toward one
    of the victims. The jury convicted the defendant on all
    counts. In state post-conviction procedures, Martin
    produced an expert who pointed out flaws in
    expert evidence introduced by the State at trial.
    After obtaining no relief and exhausting review in
    state court, Martin filed a federal habeas corpus petition
    pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    , claiming that he was
    deprived of his constitutional right to effective assistance
    of counsel. The district court denied Martin relief,
    but granted a certificate of appealability with respect to
    his claim that he was prejudiced by ineffective assistance
    of counsel. Martin appealed. Although Martin’s
    counsel was ineffective, we affirm because we find
    that Martin was not prejudiced by the error.
    I. BACKGROUND
    Around 10:00 p.m. on February 20, 1995, the bodies
    of Rane Baldwin and Dianna “Dee” Turley were found
    in Phylly’s Cue and Brew tavern in Kewanee, Illinois.
    Nine hours earlier, at 1:00 p.m. on February 20, 1995,
    Martin Woolley (“Martin”) and his wife, Marcia Woolley
    (“Marcia”), went to Phylly’s Cue to play pool and drink
    No. 10-3550                                               3
    beer with friends. The Woolleys left the tavern around
    5:00 p.m. to go home and prepare dinner for Marcia’s
    children. They returned to the tavern around 6:00 p.m.
    and continued to drink beer and play pool. At approxi-
    mately 7:00 p.m., Baldwin arrived and began
    her bartending shift. Turley arrived around 8:00 p.m.
    When Turley arrived, Marcia started to drink shots
    of hard liquor as well as beer. Soon, Marcia and Turley
    began arguing with each other while sitting at the bar.
    By approximately 9:30 p.m., everyone had left the
    tavern except for Turley, Baldwin, Marcia, and Martin.
    At 9:45 p.m., Baldwin’s boyfriend, Peter Dolieslager,
    called the tavern and spoke to Baldwin who told
    Dolieslager that Marcia was getting drunk. According
    to Dolieslager, Baldwin gave him the impression that
    Marcia was being difficult.
    A few minutes later, Dolieslager drove to the tavern to
    pick Baldwin up. When he arrived around 10:00 p.m.,
    he discovered the bodies of Turley and Baldwin. An
    autopsy revealed that Turley had been shot once in
    the forehead from a distance of three to four feet and
    that the bullet entered her head at a slightly upward angle.
    Baldwin had been shot three times in the head. The
    pathologist concluded that the bullets that struck Baldwin
    had not been fired at close range.
    A. Martin’s Initial Confession
    The next day, Martin and Marcia voluntarily went to the
    Kewanee police station for questioning. Martin initially
    4                                               No. 10-3550
    denied any involvement in the murders, but eventually
    confessed. He told the officers that Marcia and he
    were both drinking beer and playing pool at the tav-
    ern. Around 9:30 p.m., Turley, Marcia, and Martin, in that
    order from east to west, were sitting on some bar stools
    along the bar. Martin then decided to rob the tavern. He
    pulled out a 9-millimeter hand gun he had been carrying in
    the back of his pants and shot Baldwin, who was standing
    behind the bar, two or three times in the head. He then
    shot Turley, whom Martin claimed was standing, while
    Marcia was still sitting on her barstool. Martin then walked
    around behind the bar, took the cash from the register as
    well as two money bags that were located underneath the
    register. While Martin was taking the money, Baldwin
    made a noise and Martin shot her again in the head from
    behind the bar. Martin then grabbed Marcia and dragged
    her out of the bar.
    When the Woolleys got home, Martin burned the money
    bags and hid the $300 in cash in a hole in the wall of
    a closet. He put the gun in a freezer located in a
    friend’s garage. The next day, Martin asked his friend
    to throw the gun into the river, but his friend turned it
    over to the police. Martin told the police that Marcia
    did not handle the gun and that she had no knowledge of
    what he was going to do.
    B. Martin’s Trial Testimony Recanting His Confession
    During trial, Martin testified in his own defense and
    recanted his prior confession. He told the jury that around
    9:30 p.m., Marcia and Turley were arguing as they
    No. 10-3550                                                5
    had been all evening. Martin decided to leave the
    women and go to the men’s bathroom to smoke marijuana.
    He stated that he had previously put the gun in his
    jacket pocket when he had stopped at home to prepare
    dinner for Marcia’s children. He left that jacket on
    the barstool on his way to the bathroom. While he was
    away from the bar, he heard raised voices followed by
    gunshots. He ran out of the bathroom and saw
    Marcia standing up with a foot propped up on her bar-
    stool, leaning over the top of the bar. Martin testified that
    he then saw Marcia shoot down towards the bartender’s
    side of the bar. Turley was lying next to the barstool.
    Not knowing what else to do, Martin attempted to make
    the scene look like a robbery. He walked around the bar
    and took the cash. He then drove home with Marcia.
    Once home, Martin disposed of the gun. The couple
    agreed that if the police pursued them, both would say
    that Martin committed the murders. Marcia had three
    children from a previous marriage, and Martin testified
    that he thought that he needed to take the blame for
    the shootings to protect them because the children would
    “not miss a step-dad as much as a mother.”
    C. The State’s Expert Crime Scene Investigator
    A central component of the prosecution’s case was
    expert testimony to the effect that the shooter must
    have fired the shots from the bathroom area near the
    southwest corner of the bar and that Martin’s account
    of the shootings was physically impossible. Martin was
    represented by Eugene Stockton, a part-time public
    6                                             No. 10-3550
    defender and former State’s Attorney. Over two
    months before trial, Stockton prepared a written statement
    explaining what Martin had witnessed and his anticipated
    trial testimony. So the prosecution had advance notice
    that Martin would testify that he was in the men’s
    restroom area when Marcia fired the first few shots,
    that Marcia fired the final shot from her barstool, and
    that Martin went behind the bar to steal the cash from the
    register.
    About a month before trial, the State gave Stockton a
    crime scene report authored by Michael Ogryzek, the crime
    scene investigator the State would later call as an ex-
    pert. The report disclosed Ogryzek’s opinion that the
    shooter was located in the southwest corner of the
    tavern by the men’s restroom when at least one of the
    shots was fired. This was about 18 feet from Marcia’s
    location in the same area in which Martin would
    testify that he was located at the time of the shootings.
    Ogryzek’s conclusions were at odds with earlier investiga-
    tions of the crime scene following the murders.
    Initially, police investigators had determined that the
    location of the shots was consistent with Martin’s confes-
    sion that they had been fired from the barstools where
    Martin and Marcia had been sitting.
    At trial, Ogryzek testified that the physical evidence
    showed that the person who fired the final shot at
    Baldwin was standing above her on the bartender’s side
    of the bar. Stockton did not learn of that opinion until
    the day trial began, when the State supplemented its
    answer to the pretrial order. Stockton knew that the
    No. 10-3550                                                 7
    State’s disclosure was untimely, and knew the opinion
    would directly refute Martin’s testimony, but he did
    not request a continuance to address it or make any motion
    to bar Ogryzek’s testimony.
    Ogryzek also testified that it would have been physically
    impossible for a person where Marcia was located to have
    delivered the final shot to Baldwin from her position in the
    third barstool in the manner Martin would testify:
    [Prosecutor.] Based on your expertise, Officer Ogryzek,
    could a person with a foot on the bar stool, the third
    bar stool with their knee on the bar leaning over, have
    made that shot?
    [Ogryzek.] No. It is impossible.
    [Prosecutor.] How long would that person’s arms have
    to be, to be in that barstool, a foot on the barstool, a
    knee up on the bar reaching over . . . [for a gun shot to]
    come in at that angle that that gun shot above Rane
    Baldwin’s ear came in?
    [Ogryzek.] Oh, twelve feet.
    Stockton cross-examined Ogryzek but did not get conces-
    sions of any significance.
    D. Other Trial Testimony
    Several other witnesses testified for the prosecution.
    One witness testified that while the group was playing
    pool at the tavern, she saw the imprint of a gun under
    Martin’s shirt stuck in the back of his pants and that
    she never saw him move the gun from his pants to his
    8                                              No. 10-3550
    jacket pocket. Another witness testified that on the night
    of the murders, Martin made a comment saying that he
    was the type of person who “could walk into McDonald’s
    and just open up on everybody.” A third witness testified
    that two nights before Martin commented that it would
    be easy to commit a robbery if you killed the witnesses.
    The State also called Donald Tomsha. In March of 1995,
    Tomsha was in jail and had been charged with burglarizing
    three businesses. Tomsha later pleaded guilty and
    received six months in jail and probation. Tomsha testified
    that Martin confessed to him after the two had
    begun discussing religion and morality. According
    to Tomsha, Martin was unhappy that Marcia was not
    charged for her role in the murders. Martin allegedly told
    Tomsha that Marcia must have discovered “our pistol” in
    his jacket as she reached for cigarettes. Tomsha testified
    that he had questioned Martin’s credibility, at which
    point Martin confessed that he shot Baldwin as she
    was turning up the volume of the television at his re-
    quest. Martin allegedly then handed the gun to his wife to
    shoot Turley, but Marcia “froze” and Martin took the gun
    back and shot Turley. Tomsha also testified that Martin
    told him that he and Marcia planned to rob the tavern that
    night because it was less busy on Mondays.
    Tomsha claimed he convinced Martin to write out
    and sign written confessions to take accountability for
    his actions. Martin wrote the account down on a legal
    pad and signed it in his presence. He later supplemented
    the confession to include a version emphasizing Marcia’s
    role as a co-conspirator in the shootings. Tomsha
    then delivered the statements to authorities.
    No. 10-3550                                                 9
    At trial, the prosecution produced an FBI handwriting
    expert who confirmed that the signatures on the docu-
    ments matched Martin’s and did not belong to
    Tomsha. The expert could not establish that the informa-
    tion contained inside the docum ents m atched
    Martin’s handwriting. But the expert explained that Martin
    refused to provide a natural handwriting exemplar
    to permit an adequate comparison.
    For the defense, Stockton called witnesses who testified
    that Marcia had harbored a grudge against Turley for
    over a year. Marcia had made many statements to the effect
    that Turley would “get hers someday.” Additionally,
    two nights before the murders, Martin and Baldwin
    had discovered that they had attended school together
    and had engaged in a lengthy conversation. Witnesses
    testified for the defense that Marcia was “visibly upset”
    that Martin and Baldwin were talking. Marcia’s ex-hus-
    band also testified that Marcia had become violent with
    him in the past. Further, it came out at trial that because
    Marcia had worked at the tavern previously, the Woolleys
    knew that very little money was kept at the tavern, that the
    tavern had the most money on Thursdays, and was less
    crowded on Mondays.
    During closing arguments, Stockton made an attempt
    to address Ogryzek’s testimony by drawing a picture on
    his yellow legal pad and making the following presenta-
    tion:
    Then, —I don’t know, I am not a very good artist,—this
    is her shoulder, the head is straight . . . based on their
    testimony that I believe the bullet would have traveled
    10                                               No. 10-3550
    . . . if you tilt the head down to make contact with the
    floor, that makes the bullet almost straight up and
    down . . . . [Ogryzek’s testimony] was inconsistent with
    what Dr. Jumbelic [the autopsy pathologist] said about
    the angle of that bullet, and was even inconsistent with
    what he was saying.
    Stockton also told the jury that the crime scene did not fit
    with Ogryzek’s testimony given the angles of the bullets.
    He argued that it would not have made sense for Martin
    to go to the bathroom area and shoot the victims from
    a distance when he was free to fire at them from
    close range. He emphasized that the bullet that hit Baldwin
    was going up, and that the prosecution could not
    explain the upward angle of that bullet if Martin, who
    was over six feet tall, had been the shooter, but that the
    angle could have easily been accomplished by Marcia,
    who was five feet and five inches tall, sitting on the
    barstool. He also called into question Tomsha’s statement
    by noting that it would not have made sense for Turley to
    have stayed seated on the barstool while Martin
    and Marcia argued about who was going to shoot her.
    In rebuttal, the prosecution stated:
    You were told by Mr. Stockton that Martin Woolley
    couldn’t have made the third shot because he was
    standing by the cash register. . . . [B]ut the shot still
    came . . . from the bar area. . . . Now you heard experts
    testify as to angles, and I submit to you that you
    can’t rely on a rough drawing made on a legal pad as
    to angles here, because I submit to you that this is not
    the evidence.
    No. 10-3550                                              11
    Martin was convicted and sentenced to death.
    His sentence was commuted to life in prison when Illinois’s
    governor commuted the sentences of all inmates on
    death row. Martin’s conviction was upheld on appeal
    before he sought post-conviction relief.
    E. Post-Conviction Proceedings
    During state post-conviction proceedings, Martin’s
    current counsel retained Alva Busch, a crime scene recon-
    struction expert with 20 years of experience who
    would have been available to testify at Martin’s trial.
    According to Busch’s analysis, the physical evidence
    shows that neither the State’s theory nor Martin’s initial
    confession could be true. Busch opined that the shooter
    must have been located around the area of the barstools.
    Using the police’s crime scene measurements, Busch
    built a true-to-scale mockup of the bar and reconstructed
    the crime scene, reflected in the picture below.
    Busch conducted an experiment by giving a woman
    of Marcia’s build and height a model gun. A rod
    was attached to the gun to show the trajectory of the bullet
    where the gun was to be fired. Busch found that the wound
    trajectory, the abrasion ring around the wound, and the
    angle and damage around the hole in the floorboards
    underneath Baldwin’s head all confirmed that the shot
    came from the patrons’ side of the bar.
    12                                              No. 10-3550
    The shot would have been even easier had the person
    had a foot on a barstool. Moreover, Busch concluded
    that Ogryzek’s testimony that the final shot came
    from someone on the bartender’s side of the bar near
    Baldwin’s feet was wrong because, had the shooter been
    at Baldwin’s feet as Ogryzek claimed, the wound trajectory
    would have pointed in nearly the opposite direction.
    This testimony would have contradicted and undermined
    both Ogryzek’s testimony and Martin’s confession to
    the police that he was behind the bar when he fired the last
    shot at Baldwin.
    Busch also concluded that the trajectory of the bullet
    holes caused by the initial shots to both Baldwin
    and Turley were consistent with a shooter being located
    by the barstools and that the shots could not have
    been made by someone coming out of the men’s restroom.
    First, the bullet that caused Turley’s wound was found
    in the tavern’s east door. Had the bullet been fired
    No. 10-3550                                             13
    by someone by the men’s restroom or walking along the
    south wall (as Ogryzek testified), the bullet would
    have had to change its course almost 90 degrees after
    striking Turley to end up in the east door. The diagram
    below reflects the tavern’s layout and locations of Marcia
    Woolley, Turley, and Baldwin at the time of the shootings.
    In contrast, Marcia had been seen sitting directly to
    the west side of Turley, meaning that she would have
    been in an ideal position for a bullet to pass through
    Turley and hit the east door. Second, Turley’s autopsy
    report and photographs showed gunpowder residue
    called “stippling” around Turley’s wound. Stippling
    is only caused by gunshots fired at a distance of four feet
    or less. Ogryzek testified that Martin was about 18
    feet from Turley when he shot her from the bathroom.
    14                                             No. 10-3550
    In contrast, Marcia’s barstool was less than four feet
    from Turley. Third, Turley was shot in the forehead
    and the bullet exited the back of her head at an
    upward angle. Had the shooter been standing or walking,
    the gun would have been level or above the wound; but
    if the gun had been held by someone sitting on Marcia’s
    barstool, the gun would have been lower than Turley’s
    forehead and the wound angle would have been upward.
    This testimony was presented during an evidentiary
    hearing held before the circuit court of Henry County,
    Illinois. Stockton also testified that obtaining an expert
    to rebut Ogryzek’s testimony would have been “ideal,”
    and although court funds were available for the purpose
    of procuring experts, Stockton took no steps to find
    an expert or apply for available funds. He testified that
    the idea of seeking expert assistance “never crossed
    [his] mind,” and that he did not know whether such
    experts were available to the defense in 1995. Busch
    later testified that there were a number of such experts
    available in 1995.
    Based on this new testimony, Martin argued
    that Stockton’s failure to procure an expert to rebut
    Ogryzek’s testimony constituted ineffective assistance
    of counsel. Applying Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    (1984), the court concluded that while Martin’s
    attorney did cross-examine Ogryzek in an attempt to
    discredit his opinions, counsel was ineffective because
    “more should have been done.” It then found that “Peti-
    tioner’s counsel’s failure to retain an expert witness, ask
    No. 10-3550                                               15
    for a continuance, or move to bar Ogryzek’s testimony, fell
    below an objective standard of reasonableness.”
    However, the court also found that Martin was
    not prejudiced by his counsel’s ineffectiveness. The court
    concluded that “there was no reasonable probability
    that ha[d] an expert such as Busch been called and testi-
    fied, the outcome of the trial would have been different.”
    The court explained that petitioner “admitted that he
    had been at [the tavern] at the time of the murder, that
    he had taken money from the cash register . . . that he
    put the weapon [in the friend’s garage] . . . and that he
    lied to the police.” Thus, the court concluded, “the
    sole decision for the jury was to determine whether
    petitioner was lying when he testified, or when he con-
    fessed in an oral and written statements [sic] to the police,
    and to David Tomsha.” The court stated that Martin’s
    “credibility was illogical, inconsistent, and impeached
    in numerous ways.”
    The court also concluded that Busch agreed with
    Ogryzek on “several matters.” The court further found:
    [M]uch of the basis for Busch’s disagreement is uncon-
    vincing. For instance, Busch discounted Ogryzek’s
    reliance on the location of the shell casing against the
    south wall because casings can roll. However the
    photograph of [Turley’s] body show[s] that the floor is
    slanted toward the bar, the direction in which the
    blood flowed, not toward the south wall.
    The court did not refer to any of the other disagreements
    between Busch and Ogryzek and did not otherwise explain
    16                                              No. 10-3550
    why “much” of the basis for Busch’s disagreement was
    unconvincing.
    The court of appeals affirmed, focusing only on
    the second prong of Strickland. As to prejudice, the
    court found that Martin’s guilt or innocence depended
    on his credibility. It also found that the “key to the
    case was not where the gunman stood. The jury was
    called upon to decide if the defendant was honest when
    he stated he was not the gunman and that he confessed to
    the details of the crime to protect his wife.”
    Without opinion, the Supreme Court of Illinois denied
    Martin’s petition for leave to appeal. Martin then filed
    a habeas petition, which the district court denied.
    This appeal followed.
    II. ANALYSIS
    A district court’s judgment regarding habeas relief
    is reviewed de novo. Northern v. Boatwright, 
    594 F.3d 555
    ,
    559 (7th Cir. 2010). The Antiterrorism and Effective
    Death Penalty Act (“AEDPA”) sets the parameters for
    our review. Under AEDPA, we may grant habeas relief
    only if a state-court decision was (1) “contrary to,
    or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly estab-
    lished Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court
    of the United States” or (2) “based on an unreasonable
    determination of the facts in the light of the
    evidence presented in the state court proceeding.”
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d); Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 386
    (2000); Charlton v. Davis, 
    439 F.3d 369
    , 374 (7th Cir. 2006).
    No. 10-3550                                               17
    In order for a federal court to find a state court’s applica-
    tion of federal law unreasonable, the court’s application
    must have been more than incorrect; it must have been
    objectively unreasonable. Wiggins v. Smith, 
    539 U.S. 510
    ,
    520 (2003).
    To establish a claim of ineffective assistance of counsel,
    a petitioner must show that counsel was deficient in
    his performance and that the deficiency prejudiced his
    defense. Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687
    (1984); Pole v. Randolph, 
    570 F.3d 922
    , 934 (7th Cir. 2009).
    First, Martin Woolley must demonstrate that his counsel’s
    performance fell below an objective standard of reason-
    ableness. See Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 688
    . Second, he must
    demonstrate that he was prejudiced by the deficient
    performance. 
    Id. at 694
    . On habeas review, a federal court
    evaluates “the totality of the evidence—both that ad-
    duced at trial, and the evidence adduced in the habeas
    proceeding.” Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. at 536
     (citation, emphasis,
    and internal quotations omitted).
    A. The Performance of Martin’s Counsel Was Ineffec-
    tive.
    Before discussing the merits, we will consider
    the appropriate standard of review for Strickland’s perfor-
    mance prong, which the parties contest. The state
    trial court first determined that Stockton’s representation
    of Martin was ineffective, while the state appellate
    court explicitly declined to reach the ineffectiveness
    prong of the Strickland test. The State’s highest court
    then denied leave to appeal the opinion below. Federal
    18                                              No. 10-3550
    courts typically apply de novo review to a Strickland prong
    left unaddressed by a state court. See Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. at 534
    .
    Even though no prior decision found Martin’s counsel
    effective, the State argues that we must nevertheless
    apply AEDPA deference in its favor on the performance
    prong because the State ultimately prevailed on
    Martin’s Strickland claim. Relying on Thompson v.
    Battaglia, the State contends that we must treat the
    entire Strickland claim as an indivisible constitutional
    ground for relief. 
    458 F.3d 614
    , 616 (7th Cir. 2006). Because
    the Illinois Appellate Court found no Strickland violation
    overall, the State maintains that we should apply AEDPA
    deference to both prongs of the test and presume that the
    appellate court found defense counsel’s representation
    adequate even though it remained silent on attorney
    performance. This novel approach plainly conflicts with
    Wiggins. But the State argues that the Supreme Court
    overruled Wiggins in Harrington v. Richter, which held that
    Ҥ 2254(d) does not require a state court to give reasons
    before its decision can be deemed to have been ‘adjudi-
    cated on the merits.’ ” ___ U.S. ___, 
    131 S. Ct. 770
    , 785
    (2011).
    On the other hand, Martin argues that under AEDPA
    we must defer to the state trial court’s determination
    that defense counsel was ineffective. Martin contends
    that since the state trial court considered the ineffective-
    ness prong and adjudicated it on the merits in his
    favor, AEDPA operates to preserve this presumption
    on federal review. He notes that Wiggins applied de
    No. 10-3550                                                       19
    novo federal review when “neither of the state courts
    below reached [the pertinent] prong of the Strickland
    analysis.” 
    539 U.S. at 534
     (emphasis added). Since one
    of the state courts ruled in his favor on the performance
    prong and the other did not address it, Martin believes
    we must defer to the state trial court determination on this
    measure.
    Both parties’ arguments miss the mark. First, Martin
    misconstrues the scope of federal review under AEDPA.
    When a state collateral review system issues multiple
    decisions, we typically consider “the last reasoned opinion
    on the claim”—here the opinion of the Illinois Appellate
    Court. Ylst v. Nunnemaker, 
    501 U.S. 797
    , 803 (1991);
    see also Gonzales v. Mize, 
    565 F.3d 373
    , 379 (7th Cir. 2009)
    (“We review the decision of the last state court that sub-
    stantively adjudicated each claim.”). Unless a state-
    court opinion adopts or incorporates the reasoning of
    a prior opinion, “AEDPA generally requires federal courts
    to review one state decision.” Barker v. Fleming, 
    423 F.3d 1085
    , 1093 (9th Cir. 2005).3 When Martin appealed the
    3
    See also Barker, 
    423 F.3d at 1093
     (“[T]he Supreme Court
    describes AEDPA review as applying to a single state court
    decision, not to some amalgamation of multiple state
    court decisions. . . . In Williams [v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
     (2000)],
    the Virginia Supreme Court applied a standard that was
    contrary to federal law while the trial court applied the
    correct standard. The Supreme Court did not aggregate the
    two state court decisions or engage in ‘collective review.’
    Instead, it reviewed only the Virginia Supreme Court
    (continued...)
    20                                                  No. 10-3550
    state trial court judgment denying collateral relief, the
    State reiterated its contention that Stockton’s counsel
    had been adequate. The state appellate court declined
    to adopt the trial court’s reasoning and instead
    remained silent on defense counsel’s performance. This
    ruling is the “last reasoned opinion” we review
    under AEDPA. Because the Illinois Appellate Court did
    not reach Strickland’s ineffectiveness prong, we apply
    Wiggins to review the issue de novo.
    Next, the State’s theory that Wiggins has been overruled
    would stretch Harrington’s holding well beyond the
    scope of the decision. Harrington addressed a scenario
    where a conviction was upheld by a summary affirmance
    of the California Supreme Court. There was no “reasoned
    opinion” by any lower court on collateral review. By
    its terms, Harrington applies “[w]here a state court’s
    decision is unaccompanied by an explanation . . . .” 
    131 S. Ct. at 784
    . The Harrington Court held that such unexplained
    determinations may still qualify as adjudications on
    the merits for purposes of § 2254(d) and should not be
    presumed to be procedural dismissals absent some oppos-
    ing indication. But Harrington did not purport to
    disturb Wiggins or Ylst. To the contrary, the Court
    cited Ylst’s pass-through rule as a reason why a summary
    affirmance might not represent a judgment on the merits.
    See Harrington, 
    131 S. Ct. at
    785 (citing Ylst, 
    501 U.S. at
    803
    3
    (...continued)
    decision and held that it was contrary to federal law.” (citations
    omitted)).
    No. 10-3550                                                 21
    (“Where there has been one reasoned state judgment
    rejecting a federal claim, later unexplained orders uphold-
    ing that judgment or rejecting the same claim rest upon
    the same ground.”)).
    In this case, there is little need for uncertainty regarding
    the reasoning of the Illinois courts. The state court
    made the grounds for its ruling abundantly clear.
    The Illinois Appellate Court explicitly considered Strick-
    land’s prejudice prong in isolation, deeming it “unneces-
    sary to address any other issues raised by the State regard-
    ing the [trial] court’s findings on ineffectiveness.”
    The Supreme Court of Illinois then denied leave to appeal
    without opinion, presumptively adopting the reasoning
    of the state appellate court under Ylst. Under such circum-
    stances, Wiggins controls and we review attorney perfor-
    mance de novo. It would be perverse, to say the least,
    if AEDPA deference required this court to disregard a
    state court’s expressed rationale for a decision and pre-
    sume instead that Illinois’s courts affirmatively
    found defense representation adequate. See Sussman
    v. Jenkins, 
    642 F.3d 532
    , 534 (7th Cir. 2011) (Ripple, J., in
    chambers) (denying motion to stay mandate) (“We cer-
    tainly cannot assume that the [Harrington] Court overruled
    sub silentio its holding in Wiggins—a precedent so impor-
    tant to the daily work of the lower federal courts.”).
    Now to the merits. Under Strickland, our review
    of defense counsel’s performance is “highly deferential”;
    Martin must “overcome the presumption that, under
    the circumstances, the challenged action might be consid-
    ered sound trial strategy.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    22                                               No. 10-3550
    689 (internal quotation marks omitted). The choice not
    to investigate a particular defense does not constitute
    deficient performance “if a lawyer has made a reasonable
    decision that makes particular investigations unneces-
    sary.” Adams v. Bertrand, 
    453 F.3d 428
    , 436 (7th Cir. 2006)
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    We have little difficulty reaching the same conclusion
    as the state trial court on Strickland’s performance prong:
    Martin did not receive the effective representation guaran-
    teed by the Sixth Amendment. This case does not
    present a total failure to provide any meaningful opposi-
    tion to the State, though defense counsel made more
    than one mistake in representing his client. Martin’s
    attorney did engage in substantive cross-examination
    of government witnesses. But “even an isolated error of
    counsel” can deny a defendant his right to effective
    assistance “if that error is sufficiently egregious and
    prejudicial.” Murray v. Carrier, 
    477 U.S. 478
    , 496 (1986);
    see also Williams v. Lemmon, 
    557 F.3d 534
    , 538 (7th Cir.
    2009) (“a single error may suffice” for a finding of ineffec-
    tiveness).
    Here, Martin’s attorney remained nearly passive in the
    face of damning, impeachable testimony from Ogryzek
    that effectively hollowed out the core of his client’s defense
    in this capital case. Stockton had advance notice that
    the government planned to introduce testimony from
    an expert crime scene investigator. Although defense
    counsel knew Martin’s testimony would turn on
    the location of the final gunshot, he made no effort to retain
    a defense expert. More than two months before trial,
    No. 10-3550                                               23
    in accordance with pretrial discovery requirements, the
    defense disclosed that Martin would testify that he had
    been in the bathroom when the shootings occurred.
    The following month, the State indicated that it would
    reverse its initial conclusion that the gunshots were
    fired from across the bar; Ogryzek would testify instead
    that the shots came from the area around Phylly’s bath-
    room—precisely where Martin now said he had been
    located during the shootings. Even though he knew that
    the State would directly inculpate Martin’s trial testimony,
    Stockton took no steps to secure an expert opinion to
    rebut the State’s evidence. On the morning of the trial
    itself, the State made an untimely supplement to its
    pretrial report: Ogryzek would now testify that it was
    physically impossible for Marcia to have fired the final
    shot at Baldwin from across the bar as Martin maintained.
    Defense counsel made no objection to the state’s request.
    Defense counsel’s failure to retain an expert witness, ask
    for a continuance, or move to bar Ogryzek’s testimony
    due to untimely disclosure fell below the “objective
    standard of reasonableness” required by Strickland.
    
    466 U.S. at 688
    . Even if defense counsel could have initially
    believed expert testimony unnecessary, the State’s indica-
    tion that it was shifting its position on the location of
    the gunshots would have alerted any reasonable attorney
    to the need to rebut with a defense expert. Though
    we often defer to an attorney’s calculated decision to forgo
    a certain trial strategy, it is undisputed that there was
    no strategic rationale underlying these errors. Stockton
    testified that the idea of securing an expert witness
    “never crossed my mind.”
    24                                              No. 10-3550
    Further, it was objectively unreasonable for defense
    counsel to concede to the late disclosure of Ogryzek’s
    new theory that the shots could not have been fired
    by Marcia leaning across the bar. This newly disclosed
    theory did not simply involve a minor or collateral detail;
    it went to the heart of whether Martin’s version of
    the shootings was physically possible. We have no doubt
    that as a trial approaches, many attorneys feel a
    strong incentive to proceed with the case, having prepared
    witnesses, evidence, and argument for the scheduled
    date. But it was inappropriate here for defense counsel to
    simply submit to an untimely disclosure of expert opinion
    when it blew a gaping hole in the defendant’s theory of
    the case. The Illinois courts have noted that “[t]he goal of
    discovery, of course, is to eliminate surprise and unfairness
    and afford opportunity to investigate; and sanctions in
    aid of that purpose are to compel compliance with discov-
    ery orders.” People v. Nelson, 
    92 Ill. App. 3d 35
    , 44,
    
    415 N.E.2d 688
    , 696 (1980). Though attorneys can some-
    times respond to certain late disclosures up to the day
    of trial, this was not a scenario where Martin’s attorney
    could simply wing it as Ogryzek’s planned testimony
    became increasingly damaging. See Stanley v. Bartley,
    
    465 F.3d 810
    , 812 (7th Cir. 2006).
    This does not mean that defendants enjoy an automatic
    entitlement to expert rebuttal witnesses whenever
    the government offers expert testimony in a trial.
    See United States v. Anderson, 
    61 F.3d 1290
    , 1298-99 (7th
    Cir. 1995). Particularly when the State’s theory would
    be very difficult to controvert with a defense expert, it
    may be reasonable to rely on cross-examination to
    No. 10-3550                                                25
    cast general doubt on the government’s version of events.
    See Harrington, 
    131 S. Ct. 770
     at 791.
    But here, unlike in Harrington, the State made clear
    from the start that it would present forensic evidence
    on the shooter’s location at the crime scene. And there
    were significant holes in Ogryzek’s conclusions
    that required expert illustration by the defense in order
    for the jury to weigh the evidence fairly. Cf. Showers v.
    Beard, 
    635 F.3d 625
    , 630 (3d Cir. 2011) (distinguishing
    Harrington). Ogryzek testified that Martin’s account
    was impossible because the final shot could not have
    been fired from over the bar. But Busch’s expert analysis
    later showed that it was demonstrably possible for
    Marcia to have fired the final shot. At trial, defense counsel
    vainly sought to extract concessions from Ogryzek through
    cross-examination that Baldwin’s head may have
    moved such that the source of the final gunshot would be
    consistent with Martin’s account. Ogryzek repeatedly
    denied any alternative explanations. Busch’s post-convic-
    tion testimony demonstrates that these alternatives
    were indeed feasible and, in Busch’s view, more consistent
    with the evidence at the crime scene. Without a countering
    defense witness, Ogryzek’s denials in the face of cross-
    examination only reconfirmed the one-sidedness of
    the expert opinion before the jury.
    We take pains not to rely on the “harsh light of hind-
    sight” in judging counsel’s performance in a particular
    case. Bell v. Cone, 
    535 U.S. 685
    , 702 (2002). The “failure
    to investigate a particular lead may be excused if a lawyer
    has made a ‘reasonable decision that makes particular
    26                                               No. 10-3550
    investigations unnecessary.’ ” Washington v. Smith,
    
    219 F.3d 620
    , 631 (7th Cir. 2000) (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 691
    ). But we can perceive no strategic reason why
    the importance of expert testimony would not have
    been apparent at the time of trial. See Earls v. McCaughtry,
    
    379 F.3d 489
    , 494 (7th Cir. 2004). Indeed, defense counsel
    admitted that his failure to obtain an expert was
    an oversight. Though an inadvertent omission will
    not always result in constitutionally deficient performance,
    the failure to conduct a reasonable investigation
    may. Harris v. Cotton, 
    365 F.3d 552
    , 555-56 (7th Cir.
    2004). Here, defense counsel could not adequately repre-
    sent his client simply by cross-examining the State’s
    expert. See Miller v. Anderson, 
    255 F.3d 455
    , 457 (7th Cir.
    2001) (“[C]ross-examination alone could weaken the
    prosecution’s expert evidence, but not to the point of
    denying it the essential corroborative value for which
    the prosecutor was using it.”), judgment modified, 
    268 F.3d 485
     (7th Cir. 2001); cf. Stevens v. McBride, 
    489 F.3d 883
    , 896
    (7th Cir. 2007) (finding ineffectiveness due to failure
    to investigate expert “[w]here an expert witness’s
    opinion is crucial to the defense theory” (internal quota-
    tion marks and citation omitted)).
    In an effort to rebut Ogryzek’s testimony, defense
    counsel showed the jury during closing arguments an
    impromptu diagram he had scrawled on a legal pad. But
    this was not a case where such ad hoc efforts could ade-
    quately discharge counsel’s duty to the defendant
    under the Sixth Amendment. Counsel’s failures were
    particularly glaring because this was a capital case.
    ABA Standard 4-1.2(c) states that “[s]ince the death penalty
    No. 10-3550                                                27
    differs from other criminal penalties in its finality, defense
    counsel in a capital case should respond to this difference
    by making extraordinary efforts on behalf of the accused.”
    ABA Standards for Criminal Justice Prosecution Function
    and Defense Function 120 (3d ed. 1993).
    B. The State Court Reasonably Determined that
    Martin Suffered No Prejudice From Defense Coun-
    sel’s Errors.
    Though it declined to reach the performance prong,
    the state court affirmatively held that Martin had not
    established prejudice under Strickland. Therefore, we
    must evaluate this prong under AEDPA’s deferential
    standard. See Harrington, 
    131 S. Ct. at 787-88
    . Under
    AEDPA, we “allow[] the state court’s conclusion to
    stand if it is one of several equally plausible outcomes.”
    Hall v. Washington, 
    106 F.3d 742
    , 749 (7th Cir. 1997).
    Strickland requires Martin to demonstrate “a reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors,
    the result of the proceeding would have been different.”
    
    466 U.S. at 694
    . “A reasonable probability is a probability
    sufficient to undermine confidence in the outcome.” 
    Id.
    As a preliminary matter, we agree with Martin
    that Ogryzek’s opinion was highly damaging. Of the
    witnesses introduced during the State’s case-in-chief,
    prosecutors spent the greatest amount of time examining
    Ogryzek. Ogryzek testified at trial that Martin’s account
    was physically “impossible,” a refrain that the
    State repeated in closing arguments.
    28                                                 No. 10-3550
    This unrebutted expert opinion was unjustly inculpatory
    because it resulted from ineffectiveness. Busch’s analysis
    suggests possible critical flaws in Ogryzek’s opinion
    that were left untested at trial. First, it was demonstrably
    possible for the final shot to have been fired at Baldwin
    from over the bar. Second, the bullet found in the bar’s
    east door powerfully refutes Ogryzek’s theory that the
    shots originated from the bar’s south wall. If the
    shooter had been to the south of the victims and
    firing north, one of the bullets would have had to
    turn sharply to the right in order to end up in the east
    door. In addition, Turley’s gunshot wound had stippling
    which is consistent with a close-range shot from the
    area around the barstools. And the absence of stippling
    on Baldwin’s body supports a final shot from across the bar
    rather than from a person standing over the body.4
    Beyond physical evidence, the circumstances of the
    State’s changed opinion are frankly suspicious. Investiga-
    tors originally determined that the shots came from the
    area of the bar stools, consistent with Martin’s initial
    confession. When defense counsel disclosed Martin’s
    planned defense—that he was in the bathroom at the
    time of the murders—the State changed its theory to
    follow him to this part of the bar. In light of the convenient
    timing and contradictory physical evidence, Ogryzek’s
    opinion seems tailored to eliminate Martin’s proposed
    4
    The only evidence supporting Ogryzek’s version is the fact
    that the gunshot casings were found near the bar’s south wall.
    But this evidence has weak probative value because Ogryzek
    and Busch both agreed that casings ejected from a firearm do not
    travel in a predictable manner.
    No. 10-3550                                                      29
    alibi, rather than deriving from an objective analysis of
    the crime scene. Due to ineffectiveness of counsel, Martin
    did not have an adequate opportunity to impeach Ogryzek
    in this regard.
    In many cases, this would be sufficient to support
    a finding of prejudice under Strickland. But we cannot
    view even a serious error in isolation. The materiality
    of omitted evidence helpful to a defendant “must be
    evaluated in the context of the entire record.” United
    States v. Agurs, 
    427 U.S. 97
    , 112 (1976); see also Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at
    694 (citing Agurs). Looking at the context of
    the full record here, we observe that there were multiple,
    independent sources of evidence inculpating Martin
    that have nothing to do with Ogryzek’s damaging testi-
    mony.
    Martin contends that his counsel’s ineffectiveness
    prejudiced him because a defense expert would
    have corroborated his trial testimony that he was not
    the shooter. This argument misapprehends the character
    of the expert evidence. A crime scene investigator testify-
    ing for the defense could only have helped establish
    the location of the shooter, not his or her identity. Because
    Marcia invoked her right not to testify and there were no
    other witnesses, either spouse could have been in any part
    of the bar during the murders.5 And if he were guilty,
    5
    Busch testified that Turley’s gunshot wound was at an
    upward angle, indicating that she was likely shot from a
    position beneath her head. Martin contends that this demon-
    strates Marcia was the shooter since, at 5 foot, 3 inches, she was
    (continued...)
    30                                                  No. 10-3550
    Martin would have had an obvious motive to put his wife
    in precisely the same location he was in when the
    gunshots were fired. The Illinois Appellate Court correctly
    recognized this fact and concluded, “[t]he key to the
    case was not where the gunman stood.”
    Woolley’s initial problem is that the state court found
    (1) the proposed expert testimony that is the basis for his
    collateral attack “unconvincing”; and (2) the possibility
    of a “so called ‘battle of the experts’ ” to have had no
    reasonable probability of changing the outcome of the trial
    given that “petitioner’s credibility was illogical, inconsis-
    tent, and impeached in numerous ways,” including
    by “the testimony of at least eight other witnesses.”
    State court findings, including credibility determinations,
    are presumed correct on federal habeas review, unless
    the petitioner rebuts those findings with “clear and
    convincing evidence.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(1). Deference
    is due to “observe the verbal and non-verbal behavior of
    5
    (...continued)
    shorter than Turley and would have fired upward at her head.
    At over 6 feet, Martin was taller than both women. This evidence
    does indeed assist the defense by undercutting Ogryzek’s theory
    that Martin fired at Turley while standing from a distance. But
    the bullet trajectory cannot prove quite as much as Martin
    desires. First, there is no way to know whether the shooter fired
    from a seated or standing position. In his initial confession to
    police, Martin said he shot Turley while he was sitting, which
    would likely be consistent with the upward angle. Furthermore,
    Martin’s attorney was conscious of this discrepancy and
    highlighted it to the jury in closing arguments.
    No. 10-3550                                              31
    the witnesses focusing on the subject’s reactions and
    responses to the interrogatories, their facial expressions,
    attitudes, tone of voice, eye contact, posture and
    body movements, as well as confused or nervous speech
    patterns in contrast with merely looking at the cold
    pages of an appellate record.” Murrell v. Frank, 
    332 F.3d 1102
    , 1112 (7th Cir. 2003) (citation, emphasis, and internal
    quotation marks omitted). Since the Supreme Court has
    discouraged federal courts from relitigating cases on
    habeas review, Woolley’s prejudice claim—based on
    his counsel’s failure to present expert testimony found
    unconvincing by the state court—appears barred from
    federal review, especially when it would require that
    this court second guess the judge’s weighing of evidence
    and credibility determinations of both side’s experts and
    the other witnesses, particularly the defendant.
    Assuming this court were free to consider proposed
    testimony from a defense expert credible and due
    equal weight, the question of prejudice may be a closer
    one, but the outcome is no different. Certainly, Ogryzek’s
    unrebutted opinion was damaging because it suggested
    that Martin must be lying when he said the final shot
    came from over the bar. A defense expert would
    have assisted Martin by impeaching Ogryzek and poten-
    tially neutralizing his damaging testimony. But the omitted
    evidence is not exculpatory in the manner Martin
    wishes it were. It would only have leveled the playing field
    by making Martin’s account of the murders possible
    rather than “impossible.” Jurors would have had to find
    Martin credible independent of any expert testimony.
    32                                                     No. 10-3550
    But viewing this trial record as a whole, we find numer-
    ous reasons to question Martin’s credibility.6 First,
    a disinterested witness contradicted Martin’s testimony
    that the murder weapon was not on his person. It
    is undisputed that Martin’s gun was used to kill the
    victims. But Martin said he had moved the gun from the
    small of his back to his coat pocket when he left the bar
    between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. to feed Marcia’s children at
    home. Later that night, according to Martin, Marcia
    took the weapon from the pocket after he left his coat on
    the bar stool to go to the bathroom. The timing of
    this account conflicts with Deborah Brose’s testimony.
    Brose said she saw the imprint of the gun in the back of
    Martin’s pants while the two played pool and Martin
    leaned over the table. The pool game occurred between
    8:00 and 8:30 p.m., a little over an hour before the murders.
    Perhaps Brose was mistaken, but she mentioned this fact
    to police unprompted when questioned the following
    afternoon. And what reason would Brose have had
    to testify falsely? Potentially Martin could have moved the
    6
    The Illinois Appellate Court focused on the fact that Martin
    had confessed then recanted, which permitted the jury to believe
    either his trial testimony or the prior admission. Of course it
    is true that jurors were free to credit the initial confession over
    the later recantation. But this is not the strongest basis for a
    finding of no prejudice since a false confession would have been
    consistent with the defense theory that Martin acted to protect
    his wife. And contrary to the State’s intimations, there is no rule
    barring a finding of Strickland prejudice where a defendant has
    recanted a confession. See Soffar v. Dretke, 
    368 F.3d 441
    , 478 (5th
    Cir. 2004); Baylor v. Estelle, 
    94 F.3d 1321
    , 1324–25 (9th Cir. 1996).
    No. 10-3550                                                           33
    gun to his coat pocket after Brose left the bar. But then
    why would Martin have lied about when he did it? Martin
    offers no explanation for these inconsistencies.
    Brose was not the only disinterested witness
    Martin contradicted. The State offered evidence of Martin’s
    m o t iv e f r o m v io le n t , in c u l p a t o r y s t a t e m e n t s
    Martin allegedly made. Peter Dolieslager, Jeff Ince, and
    David Aldred testified of separate occasions on which
    Martin told them he could gun down patrons in
    public restaurants without compunction, that police in
    Kewanee were an incompetent “circus,” and that it would
    be easy for a person to commit a crime if he killed all of
    the witnesses. Additionally, Aldred said that two months
    before the murders Martin told him of financial problems
    he was having and money he needed to pay off large tax
    debts on his tattoo shop. These statements do not prove
    that Martin committed the murders, though they are
    obviously damaging. Martin might have argued that
    he was blowing off very badly timed steam. But he did not
    take this tack at trial. He testified instead that he
    never made any of the statements and that all three were
    lying. Martin has offered no explanation as to why these
    three apparently disinterested witnesses, including a self-
    described friend of the defendant, would combine to frame
    him.
    Tomsha provided the most directly incriminating
    evidence. He said Martin made an additional, sincere
    confession to him while the two were in pretrial detention.
    Martin contends that this testimony cannot be
    trusted because it comes from a jailhouse informant.
    34                                              No. 10-3550
    Tomsha was indeed an interested witness, having received
    a light sentence on pending burglary charges after cooper-
    ating with the State. But Martin ignores the key corroborat-
    ing element in Tomsha’s account. According to
    Tomsha, Martin said that before he killed the victims, he
    asked Baldwin to turn the television volume to its
    highest level. The purpose? To mask the sound of Martin’s
    impending gunshots. Dolieslager was the first person
    at the scene of the crime and said he immediately noticed
    the television playing at “full blast.” This evidence inde-
    pendently supports Tomsha’s testimony even if it might
    otherwise be suspect. Conceivably, Tomsha could have
    learned of this crime scene detail from another source and
    fabricated his story. But Martin has never accounted for the
    television volume witnessed by Dolieslager. He has
    never argued, for instance, that Marcia asked for the
    volume to be raised.
    Tomsha also provided written copies of confessions
    (and amendments to the confessions) purportedly made by
    Martin. When Martin testified, he denied communicating
    with Tomsha about the murders or composing the docu-
    ments. He claimed that Tomsha must have forged
    the confessions from the case files Martin kept in his cell.
    These confession “drafts” are certainly unusual and
    potentially suspect coming from a jailhouse informant.
    But here again there is independent evidence corroborating
    M a rt in ’s a ut horship. Th e St at e’s h an d w r it in g
    expert testified that Martin’s signature matched each of
    No. 10-3550                                                  35
    the documents.7 Martin has never proposed or offered
    a potential defense expert to rebut the FBI agent’s conclu-
    sions regarding his handwriting.
    Furthermore, a spelling mistake in the written confes-
    sions supports Tomsha’s testimony. Martin prepared
    a letter for his lawyer to release to the press claiming
    that Marcia had committed the murders while he was in
    the bathroom. The press release contained an error: Martin
    had misspelled Baldwin’s first name as “Renee”
    rather than “Rane.” The documents Tomsha delivered to
    police contained detailed information about the
    crime scene likely obtained only from either personal
    observation or from police reports. And each of the con-
    tested confessions also contained the same spelling error as
    Martin’s press release, even though the police records
    used the correct spelling of Baldwin’s name. Finally,
    Tomsha delivered the documents to authorities before
    Martin’s press release was dated or published. If Tomsha
    had forged these confessions using the police reports, how
    would he have known to mirror the spelling Martin would
    use in the later press release?
    7
    The expert could not definitively conclude whether Martin
    authored the body of the documents. But even this fact does
    little to help Martin under the circumstances. The expert
    testified that Martin intentionally refused to provide a natural
    handwriting exemplar. A jury could reasonably infer from this
    testimony alone that Martin sought to defeat the expert’s
    handwriting identification because he knew it would inculpate
    him. Again, Martin has proposed no defense on this point.
    36                                                 No. 10-3550
    The ineffectiveness of Martin’s defense counsel resulted
    in a significant trial error. But it is difficult to conceive of
    a defense that would have overcome the State’s remaining
    evidence. Martin has proposed none. Instead, he
    relies entirely on the potential effect of Busch’s testimony.
    As explained above, the omitted defense theory
    cannot carry the burden Martin desires. If the State
    had withdrawn Ogryzek’s testimony completely and
    stipulated to Busch’s account of the crime scene, a
    jury would still have had to contend with the overwhelm-
    ing remainder of the State’s evidence. Under such circum-
    stances, we cannot conclude that the state appellate
    court acted irrationally in finding “no reasonable probabil-
    ity that the omitted evidence would have changed
    the” outcome. Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 700
    ; see also 
    id. at 696
     (“[A] verdict or conclusion only weakly supported
    by the record is more likely to have been affected by errors
    than one with overwhelming record support.”).
    We observe that even defendants with weak cases
    deserve vigorous, effective assistance of counsel. The
    error in this case is troubling. It highlights the
    difficulty of evaluating inadequate performance when
    a defendant’s case is tenuous. Cf. Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    710–11 (Marshall, J., dissenting) (“Seemingly impregna-
    ble cases can sometimes be dismantled by good defense
    counsel. . . . A proceeding in which the defendant does not
    receive meaningful assistance in meeting the forces of the
    State does not, in my opinion, constitute due process.”).
    Nevertheless, a writ of habeas corpus is not a remedy
    the federal courts have authority to provide in circum-
    stances such as these. See Knowles v. Mirzayance, 556
    No. 10-3550                                               
    37 U.S. 111
    , 123 (2009) (“The question ‘is not whether a federal
    court believes the state court’s determination’ under
    Strickland ‘was incorrect but whether [it] was unreason-
    able—a substantially higher threshold.’ ”) (quoting Schiro
    v. Landrigan, 
    550 U.S. 465
    , 473 (2007)).
    III. CONCLUSION
    The determination that Martin Woolley was not preju-
    diced by his counsel’s performance at trial was not
    an unreasonable application of Strickland. We therefore
    A FFIRM the district court’s judgment.
    12-14-12