Forrest v. Secretary of Health and Human Services ( 2023 )


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  •           In the United States Court of Federal Claims
    OFFICE OF SPECIAL MASTERS
    No. 17-1905V
    Filed: February 15, 2023
    PUBLISHED
    Special Master Horner
    JEANNE MICHELLE FORREST, as
    special administrator of the estate of
    JOANN FORREST,                                                  Shoulder Injury Related to
    Vaccine Administration
    Petitioner,                                (“SIRVA”); Influenza (“Flu”)
    v.                                                              Vaccine; Ruling on the Record;
    Significant Aggravation
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND
    HUMAN SERVICES,
    Respondent.
    Richard Gage, Richard Gage, P.C., Cheyenne, WY, for petitioner.
    Jennifer A. Shah, U.S. Department of Justice, Washington, DC, for respondent.
    Ruling on Entitlement 1
    On December 8, 2017, Joan Forrest filed a petition under the National Childhood
    Vaccine Injury Act, 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-10-34 (2012), 2 alleging that her receipt of an
    influenza (“flu”) vaccination on December 16, 2014, caused a right shoulder injury,
    specifically a Table Injury of “SIRVA.” (ECF No. 1.) On June 25, 2020, the current
    petitioner, Jeanne Michelle Forrest, was substituted as petitioner in her capacity as legal
    representative for the estate of Joann Forrest. 3 (ECF No. 58.) An amended petition
    was subsequently filed to additionally plead significant aggravation as an alternate
    theory. (ECF No. 63.) For the reasons set forth below, I conclude that petitioner is
    1 Because this document contains a reasoned explanation for the special master’s action in this case, it
    will be posted on the United States Court of Federal Claims’ website in accordance with the E-
    Government Act of 2002. See 
    44 U.S.C. § 3501
     note (2012) (Federal Management and Promotion of
    Electronic Government Services). This means the document will be available to anyone with access
    to the Internet. In accordance with Vaccine Rule 18(b), petitioner has 14 days to identify and move to
    redact medical or other information the disclosure of which would constitute an unwarranted invasion of
    privacy. If the special master, upon review, agrees that the identified material fits within this definition, it
    will be redacted from public access.
    2All references to “§ 300aa” below refer to the relevant section of the Vaccine Act at 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-
    10-34.
    3Throughout this decision, Jeanne Michelle Forrest will be referred to exclusively as “petitioner” and Joan
    Forrest will be referred to as “Ms. Forrest.”
    1
    entitled to an award of compensation for a significant aggravation of the Ms. Forrest’s
    pre-existing shoulder injury.
    I.     Applicable Statutory Scheme
    Under the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, compensation
    awards are made to individuals who have suffered injuries after receiving vaccines. In
    general, to gain an award, a petitioner must make a number of factual demonstrations,
    including showing that an individual received a vaccination covered by the statute;
    received it in the United States; suffered a serious, long-standing injury; and has
    received no previous award or settlement on account of the injury. Finally – and the key
    question in most cases under the Program – the petitioner must also establish a causal
    link between the vaccination and the injury. In some cases, the petitioner may simply
    demonstrate the occurrence of what has been called a “Table Injury.” That is, it may be
    shown that the vaccine recipient suffered an injury of the type enumerated in the
    “Vaccine Injury Table,” corresponding to the vaccination in question, within an
    applicable time period following the vaccination also specified in the Table. If so, the
    Table Injury is presumed to have been caused by the vaccination, and the petitioner is
    automatically entitled to compensation, unless it is affirmatively shown that the injury
    was caused by some factor other than the vaccination. § 300aa-13(a)(1)(A); § 300 aa-
    11(c)(1)(C)(i); § 300aa-14(a); § 300aa-13(a)(1)(B).
    As relevant here, the Vaccine Injury Table lists a Shoulder Injury Related to
    Vaccine Administration or “SIRVA” as a compensable injury if it occurs within 48 hours
    of administration of a flu vaccine. § 300aa-14(a) as amended by 
    42 CFR § 100.3
    .
    Table Injury cases are guided by statutory “Qualifications and aids in interpretation”
    (“QAIs”), which provide more detailed explanation of what should be considered when
    determining whether a petitioner has proven the existence an injury listed on the
    Vaccine Injury Table. 
    42 CFR § 100.3
    (c). To be considered a “Table SIRVA,” petitioner
    must show that the injury at issue meets the following four criteria:
    (i) No history of pain, inflammation or dysfunction of the affected shoulder
    prior to intramuscular vaccine administration that would explain the alleged
    signs, symptoms, examination findings, and/or diagnostic studies occurring
    after vaccine injection;
    (ii) Pain occurs within the specified time-frame;
    (iii) Pain and reduced range of motion are limited to the shoulder in which
    the intramuscular vaccine was administered; and
    (iv) No other condition or abnormality is present that would explain the
    patient's symptoms (e.g. NCS/EMG or clinical evidence of radiculopathy,
    brachial neuritis, mononeuropathies, or any other neuropathy).
    
    42 CFR §100.3
    (c)(10).
    Alternatively, if no injury falling within the Table can be shown, the petitioner may
    still demonstrate entitlement to an award by showing that the vaccine recipient’s injury
    or death was caused-in-fact by the vaccination in question. § 300aa-13(a)(1)(A); §
    2
    300aa-11(c)(1)(C)(ii). To so demonstrate, a petitioner must prove that the vaccine was
    “not only [the] but-for cause of the injury but also a substantial factor in bringing about
    the injury.” Moberly ex rel. Moberly v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    592 F.3d 1315
    ,
    1322 n.2 (Fed. Cir. 2010) (quoting Shyface v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    165 F.3d 1344
    , 1352–53 (Fed. Cir. 1999)); Pafford v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    451 F.3d 1352
    , 1355 (Fed. Cir. 2006). In particular, a petitioner must demonstrate: (1) a
    medical theory causally connecting the vaccination and the injury; (2) a logical
    sequence of cause and effect showing that the vaccination was the reason for the
    injury; and (3) a showing of proximate temporal relationship between vaccination and
    injury. Althen v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    418 F.3d 1274
    , 1278 (Fed. Cir. 2005)
    For both Table and Non–Table claims, Vaccine Program petitioners must
    establish their claim by a “preponderance of the evidence”. § 300aa-13(a). That is, a
    petitioner must present evidence sufficient to show “that the existence of a fact is more
    probable than its nonexistence . . . .” Moberly, 
    592 F.3d at
    1322 n.2. Proof of medical
    certainty is not required. Bunting v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    931 F.2d 867
    , 873
    (Fed. Cir. 1991). However, a petitioner may not receive a Vaccine Program award
    based solely on her assertions; rather, the petition must be supported by either medical
    records or by the opinion of a competent physician. § 300aa-13(a)(1).
    A petitioner may also allege that the vaccine at issue caused a “significant
    aggravation” of a preexisting injury. The Vaccine Act defines significant aggravation as
    “any change for the worse in a preexisting condition which results in markedly greater
    disability, pain, or illness accompanied by substantial deterioration of health.” § 300aa-
    33(4). Where a petitioner in an off-Table case is seeking to prove that a vaccination
    aggravated a pre-existing injury, she must establish three additional factors. See
    Loving v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    86 Fed. Cl. 135
    , 144 (Fed. Cl. 2009)
    (combining the first three Whitecotton factors for claims regarding aggravation of a
    Table injury with the three Althen factors for off table injury claims to create a six-part
    test for off-Table aggravation claims); see also W.C. v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    
    704 F.3d 1352
    , 1357 (Fed. Cir. 2013) (applying the six-part Loving test.). The additional
    Loving factors require petitioners to demonstrate aggravation by showing: (1) the
    vaccinee’s condition prior to the administration of the vaccine, (2) the vaccinee’s current
    condition, and (3) whether the vaccinee’s current condition constitutes a “significant
    aggravation” of the condition prior to the vaccination. 
    Id.
    II.    Procedural History
    As noted above, this case was initially filed on December 8, 2017. Based on the
    allegations contained in the petition it was originally assigned to the Special Processing
    Unit or “SPU” for possible information resolution. (ECF No. 5.) Through her counsel,
    Ms. Forrest developed the record between March of 2018 and June of 2019. (ECF Nos.
    9, 15, 25, 32, 35, 37, 39; Exs. 1-22.) Respondent then filed his Rule 4 Report on
    September 24, 2019. (ECF No. 44.) Respondent contended that Ms. Forrest could not
    establish a Table Injury of SIRVA and had not filed any expert medical opinion to
    support a cause-in-fact claim. (Id. at 9-12.) Respondent suggested that Ms. Forrest
    had a preexisting shoulder injury and that her symptoms were not limited to her
    shoulder. (Id.)
    3
    After respondent filed his report, the case was reassigned out of the SPU and to
    the undersigned and I ordered Ms. Forrest to file an expert report. (ECF No. 46-48.)
    She filed a report by Marco Bodor, M.D., and supporting material on March 12, 2020.
    (ECF No. 53; Exs. 24-29.) Respondent filed a responsive report by Julie Bishop, M.D.,
    with supporting material on July 21, 2020. (ECF No. 59; Exs. A-B.) During this period,
    Ms. Forrest passed away due to conditions unrelated to her injury claim and Jean
    Michelle Forrest became petitioner as legal representative of the estate. (ECF Nos. 52,
    56-58; Exs. 23, 30.) On August 31, 2020, petitioner filed a supplemental report by Dr.
    Bodor responding to Dr. Bishop’s report. (ECF Nos. 60-61; Exs. 31-34.)
    On September 2, 2020, I held a status conference during which I urged the
    parties to consider litigative risk settlement and also noted that I felt the case is
    appropriate for resolution on the written record. (ECF No. 62.) I discussed petitioner’s
    claim as more likely to represent a claim for significant aggravation. (Id.) Specifically, I
    explained that my review of the medical records suggested three arcs of shoulder
    symptoms – the first predating the vaccination, the second immediately after
    vaccination, and a third subsequent to a later series of falls. (Id. at 2.) Respondent’s
    expert, Dr. Bishop, opined this was the natural course of Ms. Forrest’s degenerative
    conditions; however, both Ms. Forrest’s primary care physician and Dr. Bodor opined
    the second arc of symptoms constituted a vaccine-related aggravation of Ms. Forrest’s
    shoulder condition. (Id.) Subsequently, on September 14, 2020, petitioner amended
    her petition to include a claim for significant aggravation. (ECF No. 63.)
    Thereafter, the parties exchanged several more expert reports. Respondent filed
    a supplemental report by Dr. Bishop on April 28, 2021. (ECF No. 71; Ex. C.) Petitioner
    filed a further report by Dr. Bodor on August 4, 2021. (ECF No. 74; Ex. 35.)
    Respondent then filed a report by Dr. Bishop on September 30, 2021, and petitioner
    responded with a report by Dr. Bodor on October 8, 2021. (ECF Nos. 76-77; Exs. D, 36-
    38.) Respondent filed a report by Dr. Bishop on January 5, 2022, and petitioner filed a
    report by Dr. Bodor on January 19, 2022. (ECF Nos. 79-80; Exs. E, 39-40.)
    Respondent filed a final report by Dr. Bishop on March 7, 2022. (ECF No. 83; Ex. F.)
    On March 8, 2022, I ordered petitioner to file a motion for a ruling on the record
    and also permitted petitioner to simultaneously file a report by Dr. Bodor responding to
    respondent’s final report by Dr. Bishop. Petitioner filed a final report by Dr. Bodor on
    March 10, 2022, and her motion for a ruling on the record on May 9, 2022. (ECF Nos.
    84-85; Exs. 41-43.) Respondent filed his response on June 22, 2022, and petitioner
    filed a reply on July 6, 2022. (ECF Nos. 87-88.)
    I have determined that the parties have had a full and fair opportunity to present
    their cases and that it is appropriate to resolve this issue without a hearing. See
    Vaccine Rule 8(d); Vaccine Rule 3(b)(2); Kreizenbeck v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    945 F.3d 1362
    , 1366 (Fed. Cir. 2020) (noting that “special masters must
    determine that the record is comprehensive and fully developed before ruling on the
    record.”). Accordingly, this matter is now ripe for resolution.
    4
    III.     Factual History
    a. As reflected in the medical records
    i. Pre-vaccination
    Ms. Forrest presented to her primary care physician on December 27, 2011, with
    a complaint of right shoulder pain. (Ex. 4, p. 1.) On physical exam she had crepitus4
    and impaired range of motion. (Id. at 2.) She followed up with an orthopedist (Dr.
    Johnson) on January 13, 2012. 5 (Ex. 2, p. 1.) She complained of “persistent,” but
    “waxing and waning” shoulder pain for approximately eight years. 6 (Id.) The pain had
    worsened in the last few months. (Id.) She had previously tried physical therapy but felt
    it had made her symptoms worse. By the time she sought treatment from Dr. Johnson,
    the pain was interfering with her sleep. (Id.) On physical exam she had reduced range
    of motion and signs of impingement (Hawkins and Neer’s testing were positive). 7 Ms.
    Forrest was diagnosed with right shoulder subacromial impingement and a suspected
    rotator cuff tear. (Id. at 3.)
    Ms. Forrest returned to Dr. Johnson on February 9, 2012. A diagnostic
    ultrasound showed “a chronic right shoulder full-thickness tear of the anterior medial
    fibers of the supraspinatus with minimal tendon retraction” and acromioclavicular joint
    osteoarthritis. (Ex. 2, p. 5.) She declined a steroid injection and was referred for a
    surgical consultation that she apparently did not pursue. 8 (Ex. 15, p. 9.)
    Ms. Forrest did not seek care again until about a year and a half later, when she
    sought care from her primary care provider on July 12, 2013, following a fall in her
    garden. (Ex. 4, p. 20.) She reported that about two weeks prior she fell down a slope in
    her garden and fell onto her knees and right shoulder. She complained of right shoulder
    4”The grating sensation caused by the rubbing together of the dry synovial surfaces of joints; called also
    articular c.” Joint crepitus, DORLAND’S MEDICAL DICTIONARY ONLINE,
    https://www.dorlandsonline.com/dorland/definition?id=67378&searchterm=joint%20crepitus (last
    accessed Feb. 13, 2023).
    5In addition to her shoulder complaint, petitioner also had bilateral hand pain and weakness that was
    separately diagnosed as arthritis. (Ex. 2, p. 3.)
    6Petitioner would later report to Dr. Johnson that she recalled a prior fall occurring about eight to ten
    years prior. (Ex. 2, p. 4.)
    7 A Hawkins-Kennedy test is a test used in the evaluation of orthopedic shoulder injury. “A positive
    Hawkins-Kennedy test is indicative of an impingement of all structures that are located between the
    greater tubercle of the humerus and the coracohumeral ligament.” Hawkins-Kennedy test, WIKIPEDIA,
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawkins%E2%80%93Kennedy_test (last accessed Feb. 13, 2023). A Neer
    impingement test is a test designed to reproduce symptoms of rotator cuff impingement “through flexing
    the shoulder and pressure application.” Neer Impingement Test, WIKIPEDIA,
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neer_Impingement_Test (last accessed Feb. 13, 2023). In a Neer’s test,
    symptoms should be reproduced “if there is a problem with he supraspinatus or biceps brachii.” 
    Id.
    8 Petitioner was referred to Dr. Benjamin Widmer but there is no indication from the records that she saw
    Dr. Widmer at that time. (Ex. 15.) Petitioner’s first visit to Dr. Widmer appears to be on July 6, 2015. (Id.
    at 11-16.)
    5
    and right knee pain as well as fatigue. (Id.) However, the fatigue was reportedly more
    concerning at this particular visit. Ms. Forrest reported that she was still experiencing
    shoulder pain, worse at night, that she felt was slowly improving and that her shoulder
    pain “is not overly concerning.” (Id.) However, she did state that she could not cross
    her arm across her chest. (Id.) On examination, she had no crepitus and no
    tenderness to palpation, but reported some pain with resisted abduction and rotation.
    Apart from her cross-body movement, her range of motion was normal. Neer’s test
    demonstrated “some tightness” but Hawkins test was negative. (Id. at 21.) No
    treatment was recommended.
    However, Ms. Forrest returned to her primary care provider on August 5, 2013,
    reporting that her right shoulder pain had worsened due to attempting to pull a vine out
    of her garden. (Ex. 4, p. 24.) She now had mild tenderness to palpation in the inferior
    to the acromion, limited external rotation, and abduction limited to 90 degrees. For the
    first time she had pain with an empty can test. 9 (Id.) However, it was noted that her
    passive range of motion was good. Accordingly, the injury was considered “probably
    more consistent with rotator cuff tendinitis rather than tear” with an additional baseline of
    osteoarthritis. (Id. at 25.) Ms. Forrest was referred to physical therapy. (Id.) However,
    there is no evidence to suggest she acted on that referral.
    On January 21, 2014, Ms. Forrest was hospitalized after a car accident. (Ex. 3,
    pp. 1, 66.) She suffered a fractured rib, a left scapula fracture, facial lacerations, and a
    pulmonary contusion. (Id.) There is no indication that the accident affected her right
    shoulder.
    On November 4, 2014, Ms. Forrest returned to her primary care physician with a
    chief complaint of a rash on her face. (Ex. 4, p. 40.) Her history of osteoarthritis
    affecting her hands, knees, and shoulder was referenced; however, she was managing
    her pain with home exercises and herbal remedies. (Id.) Examination of Ms. Forrest’s
    extremities provided only a cursory notation that she had no peripheral edema. (Id. at
    41.) It was recommended that petitioner continue her home exercises, but no other
    treatment was indicated for her osteoarthritis. (Id.)
    ii. Vaccination and subsequent treatment
    Ms. Forrest received the flu vaccination at issue in this case in her right deltoid
    on December 16, 2014. (Ex. 16, p. 3; Ex. 1.) About a month later, on January 19,
    2015, she sought treatment from her primary care provider “to evaluate right shoulder
    pain after receiving her flu shot.” (Ex. 4, p. 46.) The following history was provided:
    She presents with right upper extremity pain that began after receiving her
    flu shot at Walgreens on 12/16/2014. She reports severe pain and difficulty
    9 The empty can test (Jobe’s test) and full can tests are used to diagnose shoulder injuries. “Specifically,
    these physical examination maneuvers examine the integrity of the supraspinatus muscle and tendon.”
    Empty can/ Full can tests, WIKIPEDIA, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_can/Full_can_tests (last
    accessed Feb. 13, 2023). In the empty can test, “the arm is rotated to full internal rotation (thumb down)
    and in the full can test, the arm is rotated to 45° external rotation, thumb up.” 
    Id.
     The test is considered
    positive “if weakness, pain or both are present during resistance. A positive test result suggests a tear to
    the supraspinatus tendon or muscle, or neuropathy of the suprascapular nerve.” 
    Id.
    6
    lifting her right should[er] during the 2 days following her flu shot . . . The
    pain has caused multiple sleepless nights . . . Pain duration lasts from
    minutes to hours in some instances . . . She denies any recent trauma, but
    does report numbness, tingling, and weakness in the right arm.
    (Id.) Ms. Forrest’s prior rotator cuff tear was noted, but “she has not had many
    problems with the shoulder until after receiving the flu shot.” (Id.) Physical exam
    showed impingement, with Neers and Hawkins tests producing pain. (Id. at 47.) Empty
    can test showed weakness and she had significant weakness with a push off test.
    Range of motion was full except for limited and “visibly painful” abduction. (Id.) The
    assessment was that this “may represent progression of the tear that was exacerbated
    by the inflammatory process [elicited] by the flu shot. Other thoughts include a bursitis
    directly from the shot itself vs. a nerve injury from the injection.” (Ex. 4, p. 47.) Ms.
    Forrest was referred to her orthopedist for further evaluation. (Id.)
    On May 15, 2015, Ms. Forrest returned to her primary care provider and reported
    that her shoulder pain “has slowly been improving.” (Ex. 4, p. 50.) She was having
    difficulty securing an appointment with an orthopedist but reported that “the pain has
    almost resolved.” (Id.) There is no indication of any relevant physical examination
    findings at this encounter. (Id. at 50-51.)
    On July 6, 2015, Ms. Forrest saw an orthopedic surgeon (Dr. Widmer). (Ex. 2, p.
    31.) Her “long history” of right shoulder dysfunction was noted, but Ms. Forrest reported
    that it “was not bothering her much but she had a flu shot in the fall and had pain and
    dysfunction with increasing stiffness and pain thereafter.” (Id.) Petitioner reported a
    “waxing and waning” of her condition but indicated that “she is not remotely back to
    having as functional a shoulder as she would like.” (Id.) The pain reportedly extended
    down to her hand at times. (Id.) She reported pain with internal and external rotation,
    but no issue with forward elevation. (Id.) Physical exam confirmed her reduced range
    of motion and an x-ray showed degenerative changes. She was diagnosed with
    adhesive capsulitis in addition to her ongoing rotator cuff disease. (Id. at 33.) An MRI
    was recommended. (Id.) Dr. Widmer did not specifically address whether Ms. Forrest’s
    reported vaccination had any causal role in her condition.
    Ms. Forrest opted not to undergo the MRI imaging recommended by Dr. Widmer.
    (Ex. 15, p. 17.) However, she agreed to a diagnostic ultrasound. (Id. at 18.)
    iii. Subsequent treatment and falls
    Before Ms. Forrest was able to present for her diagnostic ultrasound, she
    reported that she had experienced a fall while walking up steps. She “lost balance and
    grabbed the railing so she wouldn’t fall, and she felt a pop in the middle of her forearm,
    and she is having pain there now.” (Ex. 15, p. 20.) Ms. Forrest declined the
    recommendation to get an x-ray and indicated she would maintain her upcoming
    appointment for her diagnostic ultrasound. (Id.)
    On August 7, 2015, Ms. Forrest underwent a right shoulder ultrasound which
    showed: (1) “right subscapularis partial tearing versus tendinosis. No evidence of a full
    7
    thickness tear”; (2) “atrophic appearing long head of the biceps tendon, likely indicating
    a chronic tear/rupture”; and (3) “right supraspinatus full thickness tendon tear with
    probable retraction of the anteromedial fibers. No evidence of an acute tear.” (Ex. 2, p.
    42.)
    On August 20, 2015, Ms. Forrest saw a different orthopedic surgeon (Dr.
    Gardiner). (Ex. 20, pp. 17-19.) Ms. Forrest reported her history of chronic shoulder
    pain with additional persistent shoulder pain following her December 2014 flu
    vaccination. (Id. at 17.) Dr. Gardiner reviewed the ultrasound report and recommended
    a rotator cuff repair surgery given the severity of petitioner’s reported symptoms. (Id. at
    18-19.)
    Subsequently, on September 10, 2015, Ms. Forrest returned to her primary care
    provider reporting that she had experienced another fall on August 31, 2015. She had
    landed on her chest and had ongoing chest pain. (Ex. 4, p. 63.) On September 29,
    2015, Ms. Forrest reported that she had another fall that caused her to hit her head. (Id.
    at 66.) She had no residual symptoms of head trauma, apart from a resolving
    hematoma, but reported worsened right shoulder pain over time as her “bigger
    concern.” (Id.) She reportedly had a shoulder exam “consistent with rotator cuff strain,
    not consistent with full-thickness tear.” (Id. at 67.) There was no indication for imaging,
    but petitioner was referred to physical therapy. (Id.) Ms. Forrest presented for a
    physical therapy evaluation on October 22, 2018. (Ex. 20, p. 9.) She was given
    instructions for a home exercise program but did not otherwise return for further
    physical therapy sessions. (Id.) However, her primary care provider subsequently
    noted on November 4, 2015, that her shoulder was improving with physical therapy.
    (Ex. 4, p. 77.)
    iv. Further records
    Ms. Forrest did not seek any care for the next four months. Then, on March 9,
    2016, she established care with a new primary care provider. (Ex. 7, p. 20.) At that
    time Ms. Forrest reported a history of her post-vaccination injury that suggested she had
    nerve damage caused by her vaccination in addition to her previously diagnosed rotator
    cuff tear. (Id.) The Review of Systems recorded right arm neuropathy and shoulder
    pain, but physical examination was only cursory with no indication of range of motion or
    any specific testing maneuvers. (Id. at 21.) She was referred for both orthopedic and
    neurologic evaluation. (Id. at 23.) Ms. Forrest’s neurology follow up was unrevealing.
    Her neurologist felt it was “[d]ifficult to separate symptoms from rotator cuff problems.”
    (Ex. 9, p. 15.) A subsequent electrodiagnostic study was normal. (Id. at 6-12.)
    On August 16, 2016, Ms. Forrest saw a new orthopedist. (Ex. 10, p. 9.) The
    orthopedist felt Ms. Forrest was a “poor historian” and recorded no history of any of the
    prior inciting events reflected in her prior medical history. (Id.) She reported severe
    pain localized to the lateral aspect of the shoulder, worse with activities. (Id.) On
    physical exam, Ms. Forrest had reduced range of motion and positive Neer, Hawkins,
    and empty can tests. (Id. at 11.) She was diagnosed with mild to moderate
    glenohumeral osteoarthritis and a suspected rotator cuff tear. She was referred for an
    MRI study. (Id. at 12.) That MRI, conducted October 3, 2016, showed “[m]oderate
    degenerative changes [at the] humeral head [as well as] [d]egenerative changes in the
    8
    acromioclavicular joint with undersurface spurring impress[ing] upon the supraspinatus
    musculotendinous junction region.” (Ex. 10, pp. 6-7.) It also showed “[f]ull thickness
    tearing of the supraspinatus and infraspinatus tendons with retraction beneath the
    acromioclavicular joint and abutment of the humeral head and acromion. The
    supraspinatus and infraspinatus muscles are retracted and appear small/atrophic.” (Id.
    at 7.) There was also “[m]oderate joint effusion with suspected debri[s].” (Id.) Upon
    review of the MRI, the orthopedist advised Ms. Forrest she had a chronic irreparable
    rotator cuff tear and recommended a reverse total shoulder arthroplasty as a last resort.
    (Id. at 5.) Ms. Forrest declined a subacromial steroid injection and the orthopedist
    referred her to physical therapy. (Id.) Ms. Forrest attended physical therapy from
    February through July of 2017, seeing improvement in her pain but not a resolution of
    her limited function. (Ex. 5.)
    Ms. Forrest subsequently sought a fourth orthopedic opinion on August 2, 2017.
    (Ex. 8, pp. 1-4.) Ms. Forrest reported history that included her post-vaccination pain as
    well as a fall in April of 2016 that she felt improved her symptoms. She reported that
    she had been told by her doctor that the fall broke up some of her scar tissue. She
    reported numbness and tingling down her arm in addition to her shoulder pain. (Id. at
    1.) Ms. Forrest was diagnosed with an unspecified rotator cuff tear or other rupture of
    the right shoulder along with bursitis, impingement, and cervical radiculopathy. (Id. at
    4.) Ms. Forrest deferred on a recommended cervical MRI study because her symptoms
    were improving. She was to continue physical therapy and undergo a shoulder MRI to
    further evaluate her rotator cuff. (Id.) The MRI showed complete tears of the
    supraspinatus and infraspinatus tendons with five centimeters of retraction and
    moderate to severe muscle atrophy as well as mild subscapular tendinosis, a complete
    stable tear of the biceps tendon, subluxation of the humeral head, mild to moderate
    glenohumeral and acromioclavicular osteoarthritis, and a small glenohumeral joint
    effusion. (Id. at 9.) A capsular reconstruction was recommended. (Id.) Initially, Ms.
    Forrest deferred because she felt she had “functional range of motion,” but she returned
    about a month later and indicated she would proceed with surgery. (Id. at 9, 15.)
    Ms. Forrest never pursued the recommended surgery. She passed away on
    November 8, 2019.
    b. As reflected in Ms. Forrest’s affidavits
    Ms. Forrest filed two affidavits in this case. (ECF Nos. 1. 15.) I have reviewed
    these affidavits and they are consistent with the history reflected in the above-discussed
    medical records. The affidavits do not contain any additional details that would affect
    the resolution of entitlement in this case.
    9
    IV.     Summary of Expert Opinions
    a. Initial Report by Petitioner’s Expert, Marco Bodor, M.D. 10
    Dr. Bodor opines that Ms. Forrest sustained a significant aggravation of
    preexisting shoulder dysfunction caused by her December 16, 2014 influenza
    vaccination. (Ex. 24, p. 3.) He explains that “[p]rior to this vaccination, she had
    intermittent pain but little disability, whereas afterwards she had considerable disability.
    This is a key distinction.” (Id. at 3-4.)
    Dr. Bodor explains that the likely mechanism of injury is injection of the vaccine
    into the subacromial bursa and adjacent rotator cuff. (Ex. 24, p. 4 (citing Marko Bodor &
    Enoch Montalvo, Vaccination-related shoulder dysfunction, 25 VACCINE 585 (2007) (Ex.
    26); Brian P. McColgan & Frank A. Borschke, Pseudoseptic arthritis after accidental
    intra-articular deposition of the pneumococcal polyvalent vaccine: a case report, 25(7)
    AM. J. EMERG. MED. 1 (2007) (Ex. 27); S. Atanasoff et al., Shoulder injury related to
    vaccine administration (SIRVA), 28 VACCINE 8049 (2010) (Ex. 28) (as filed as Ex. A, Tab
    3)).) Further to this, he cites a case report to demonstrate that a preexisting full
    thickness rotator cuff tear may make it more likely that the substance of the vaccine
    would pass through the tear into the joint. (Id. (citing Andrew Neviaser & Jo A.
    Hannafin, Adhesive Capsulitis: A review of current treatment, 38(11) Am. J. Spots Med.
    2346 (2010) (Ex. 29)).) Dr. Bodor opines that vaccine deposition into the infraspinatus
    and teres minor insertions is common in cases of SIRVA and that this would be
    consistent with Dr. Widner’s finding of painful external rotation in Ms. Forrest’s case.
    (Id.) He also opines that petitioner’s subsequent development of adhesive capsulitis as
    diagnosed by Dr. Widner is also consistent with SIRVA. He explains that adhesive
    capsulitis is a “true inflammatory disorder” and that SIRVA patients are at increased risk
    of adhesive capsulitis compared to the general population. (Id.) Dr. Bodor
    acknowledges that Ms. Forrest also reported some symptoms consistent with nerve
    involvement but noted that after she was referred to a neurologist her EMG and
    neurologic exam were normal. (Id.)
    10 Dr. Bodor received his medical degree from the University of Cincinnati in 1987 and completed a
    surgery internship at the University of California, San Diego, in 1988. (Ex. 25, p. 1.) He completed his
    physical medicine and rehabilitation residency at the University of Michigan in 1993. (Id.) Along with
    three fellows, he sees approximately 28 patients per day, where he performs diagnostic and therapeutic
    procedures. (Id. at 2.) Dr. Bodor is affiliated with the UCSF Department of Neurological Surgery and the
    UC Davis Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, collaborating in the care of patients and
    teaching visiting faculty, fellows, residents, medical and pre-medical students. (Id.) He also serves as the
    medical director of the Napa Medical Research Foundation, spending approximately 10-20 hours per
    week supervising research assistants and PhD students. (Id.) Dr. Bodor was the first person to describe
    vaccination-related shoulder dysfunction in the journal Vaccine in 2007, which was subsequently
    renamed SIRVA by Atanasoff et al. in 2010. (Ex. 24, p. 1.) He has treated 15 patients with SIRVA in his
    practice since 2007 and has reviewed over 35 SIRVA petitions for the VICP. (Id.)
    10
    b. Initial Report by Respondent’s Expert, Julie Y Bishop, M.D. 11
    Although Dr. Bishop disagrees with Dr. Bodor’s assessment of Ms. Forrest’s own
    clinical history, she does not offer any specific challenge to his explanation of how a
    vaccine could, in general, significantly aggravate a preexisting shoulder condition. Dr.
    Bishop opines that Ms. Forrest’s course both before and after the vaccination at issue is
    consistent with a “waxing and waning” course of mild osteoarthritis and rotator cuff tear.
    (Ex. A, p. 7.) She disagrees with Dr. Bodor’s assessment that her condition was
    substantially worse post-vaccination and instead indicates that it was not until the
    summer of 2015, when Ms. Forrest began experiencing falls and noted feeling a
    popping in her arm, that the tempo of her care increased. (Id.) Dr. Bishop charges that
    Dr. Bodor does not account for the “known and expected course of someone with Ms.
    Forrest’s pre-vaccine shoulder condition.” (Id.)
    Dr. Bishop agrees that Ms. Forrest may have experienced two days of mild post-
    vaccination irritation of her shoulder as she reported, but also notes that this was noted
    to have improved and that Ms. Forrest’s pain was otherwise documented as
    intermittent, which is more consistent with osteoarthritis and rotator cuff disease. (Ex.
    A, p. 8.) Dr. Bishop also acknowledges there was progression of Ms. Forrest’s
    condition but opines that this progression cannot be explained by her vaccination. (Id.)
    Dr. Bishop contends that Ms. Forrest’s objective imaging over time confirms the
    progression of her preexisting shoulder dysfunction as the explanation of her clinical
    course. (Id.) In particular, she stresses that the imaging shows the worsening of
    petitioner’s rotator cuff tears over time. (Id.)
    Further to this, Dr. Bishop explains that glenohumeral osteoarthritis is itself a
    progressive condition with no treatment that can reverse or slow its natural progression.
    Decreased function generally occurs over months to years. (Ex. A, p. 8.) Over time,
    osteoarthritis results in pain and stiffness resulting in functional imitations, especially
    with overhead activities and external rotation. (Id.) “The loss of motion is due to
    capsular thickening and contraction and is a hallmark of the disease.” (Id.) Dr. Bishop
    opines that Ms. Forrest’s condition, as documented by Dr. Widner, “clearly matches” the
    course of osteoarthritis. (Id. at 9.) Dr. Bishop agrees with Dr. Widner’s diagnosis of
    adhesive capsulitis but disagrees with Dr. Bodor’s attribution of that adhesive capsulitis
    11 Dr. Bishop serves as a professor in the department of Orthopaedic Surgery at the Ohio State
    University, Wexner Medical Center, as well as Chief of the Division of Shoulder surgery, and Vice Chair of
    Finance for the Orthopaedic Department. (Ex. A, p. 1.) As a shoulder specialist, all of Dr. Bishop’s
    research interests, publications, book chapters, and presentations have been on the treatment of
    shoulder pathology. (Id.; Ex. B pp. 9-41.) Dr. Bishop has treated multiple patients with SIRVA in her
    practice over the years and has published in this area as well. (Id.) Dr. Bishop received her medical
    degree from Cornell University Medical College in 1997. (Ex. B, p. 1.) She completed fellow training in
    2003 specifically in shoulder surgery (fellowship at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City) and
    Orthopaedic sports medicine (visiting fellowship at the University of Pittsburg Medical Center). (Ex. A, p.
    1.) She is board certified in orthopedic surgery. (Ex. B, p. 2.) Dr. Bishop is also a fellow of the American
    Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons, an active member of the American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons, a
    member of the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine as well as an elected member of the
    American Orthopaedic Association. (Ex. A, p. 1.)
    11
    to vaccination. (Id.) Whereas Dr. Bishop agrees that primary idiopathic adhesive
    capsulitis may be associated with SIRVA, she asserts that Ms. Forrest had secondary
    adhesive capsulitis related to her underlying osteoarthritis. (Id.)
    According to Dr. Bishop, “[a]nother hallmark finding of [glenohumeral
    osteoarthritis] is that the pain is often intermittent and can be aggravated by various
    activities, thus there are times when it flares up and times when it calms down.” (Ex. A,
    p. 9.) This, she concludes, “is in step with [Ms. Forrest’s] statements that her symptoms
    were intermittent and when aggravated, the pain was present for a short period of time.”
    (Id.) Dr. Bishop further indicates that Ms. Forrest’s documented falls may also have
    contributed to the progression of her rotator cuff tear and also aggravated her
    underlying osteoarthritis. (Id. at 10.)
    With regard to neurologic symptoms, Dr. Bishop disagrees that these symptoms
    could be referred from the shoulder. (Ex. A, p. 10.) Rather, Dr. Bishop stresses that
    Ms. Forrest had documented degenerative disc disease that likely explains her
    neurologic symptoms. (Id.) Nonetheless, Dr. Bishop characterizes the neurologic
    symptoms as “nonspecific” and explains that while the neurologic condition may explain
    Ms. Forrest’s difficulty with fine skills, her pain and reduced range of motion in her
    shoulder are related to her rotator cuff and arthritic changes. (Id.)
    c. Subsequent Reports by the Parties’ Experts
    After providing their initial opinions, both parties’ experts filed multiple
    supplemental reports. (Exs. 31, 35, 41, C-F.) I have carefully reviewed all of these
    reports; however, it is not necessary to summarize each report. A substantial portion of
    the analysis contained in these reports relates to the question of whether neurologic
    symptoms of numbness and tingling can be seen among patients experiencing shoulder
    conditions. However, as explained above, even though the experts differ on their
    interpretation of the neurologic symptoms at issue in this case, they both nonetheless
    also opine that Ms. Forrest’s clinical history is largely explained by her shoulder
    pathology. Whether Ms. Forrest’s numbness and tingling into her hand is consistent
    with the shoulder pathology itself or separately explained by an additional condition is
    immaterial to resolving whether that agreed upon shoulder pathology was aggravated
    by her vaccination.
    V.     Party Contentions
    a. Petitioner’s Motion
    In her motion for a ruling on the record, petitioner focuses exclusively on the
    significant aggravation claim included in her amended petition. (ECF No. 85.)
    Petitioner argues that while Ms. Forrest had a history of osteoarthritis and a rotator cuff
    tear, “[t]he difference in symptomology in the right shoulder from before to after the
    vaccine administration was dramatic” and constitutes a significant aggravation of Ms.
    Forrest’s condition inclusive of adhesive capsulitis, severe pain, and loss of range of
    motion. (Id. at 1.)
    12
    Petitioner stresses that under a Loving analysis for significant aggravation,
    respondent is incorrect to suggest (through his expert) that Ms. Forrest’s preexisting
    condition should be evaluated by looking to the expected course of the underlying
    conditions. (ECF No. 85, p. 15.) Rather, petitioner indicates that under the legal
    standard at issue only petitioner’s pre- and post-vaccination conditions may be
    compared and petitioner is not obligated to prove that her post-vaccination condition is
    worse than her expected outcome. (Id. at 15-16) (quoting Sharpe v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    964 F.3d 1072
    , 1082 (Fed. Cir. 2020).)
    Petitioner argues that through Dr. Bodor she has set forth a mechanism of
    significant aggravation that is “essentially the same as any SIRVA injury.” (ECF No. 85,
    p. 16.) That is, petitioner argues that the significant aggravation in this case was
    caused by injection of a vaccine into the subacromial bursa and adjacent rotator cuff.
    (Id.) She further argues that this is consistent both with Ms. Forrest’s treating
    physician’s assessment and the medical literature filed in this case. (Id. at 16-18.)
    Further to this, petitioner argues that the medical records are clear in attributing Ms.
    Forrest’s worsened condition to her vaccination, both in terms of the history she
    provided and the treating physician’s assessment, and that the timing is medically
    appropriate for vaccine-causation. (Id. at 18-20.) Thus, petitioner argues that she has
    proven Loving prongs four through six. (Id.)
    b. Respondent’s Response
    Respondent agrees that a Loving analysis is the relevant legal framework. (ECF
    No. 87, p. 10.) However, respondent counters that nothing in the Sharpe decision cited
    by petitioner “prohibits respondent from introducing, or the special master from
    considering, evidence that petitioner’s post-vaccination clinical course is consistent with
    the expected clinical course of the condition, and that the vaccine was therefore not a
    ‘substantial factor’ in aggravating that condition.” (Id. at 11.) Respondent contends that
    petitioner has failed to demonstrate by preponderant evidence that Ms. Forrest’s
    vaccination was a substantial factor in causing a significant aggravation of her
    preexisting condition as opposed to her condition having evolved “in a manner wholly
    consistent with the natural progression of her diagnoses, perhaps with accelerations
    caused by falls and other incidents.” (Id. at 12.)
    Regarding petitioner’s theory of causation, respondent contends that Dr. Bodor’s
    theory is not supported by any medical literature and further that petitioner is engaged in
    conflation when she equates a primary de novo shoulder injury and the worsening of a
    pre-existing shoulder injury. (ECF No. 87, p. 13.) Respondent stresses that none of the
    cited literature supports vaccines as the cause of a progression of a rotator cuff tear and
    asserts that the literature is inapposite. (Id.) In contrast to the evidence petitioner has
    cited regarding Ms. Forrest’s own history, respondent stresses the evidence Dr. Bishop
    has brought forward regarding the fact that glenohumeral arthritis and rotator cuff tears
    naturally progress over time, arguing that Ms. Forrest’s history is consistent with this
    type of progression. (Id. at 13-19.) Further to this, respondent disputes that Ms. Forrest
    had primary adhesive capsulitis caused by her vaccination. (Id. at 19-20.) Finally,
    because respondent distinguishes the two days of post-vaccination petitioner
    experienced as temporary irritation separate from her broader condition, respondent
    13
    contends that petitioner has not demonstrated a medically acceptable temporal
    relationship between Ms. Forrest’s vaccination and her worsened condition. (Id. at 21-
    22.)
    c. Petitioner’s Reply
    In her reply, petitioner contends that respondent is seeking to “complicate” this
    case. Petitioner stresses several aspects of the medical records to illustrate why she
    believes the significant aggravation in this case is clear cut. She contends that “[t]here
    is significant, credible evidence that the flu vaccination Ms. Forrest received on
    December 16, 2014, either directly caused, or significantly aggravated, Ms. Forrest’s
    increased shoulder symptomology.” (ECF No. 88, p. 3.) Petitioner further stresses that
    because she has presented a prima facie case of vaccine-caused significant
    aggravation, she is not required to eliminate alternative causes of her injury. She
    contends that respondent has not, in turn, presented preponderant evidence that Ms.
    Forrest’s injury was due to a factor unrelated to vaccination (namely the natural
    progression of her pre-existing shoulder conditions). (Id.) That is, respondent has not
    presented preponderant evidence satisfying his own burden of proof that eliminates Ms.
    Forrest’s vaccination as a substantial factor in her subsequent symptomology. (Id. at 4.)
    In that regard, petitioner stresses that respondent has conceded that Ms. Forrest
    suffered a post-vaccination inflammatory response and that his expert has failed to
    address the fact that Ms. Forrest’s own treating physician concluded that this
    inflammatory reaction caused a significant aggravation of her shoulder prior shoulder
    condition. (Id. at 3.)
    VI.    Analysis
    a. Petitioner’s Table Injury claim
    Although the parties focus on significant aggravation in their briefing, I first note
    in the interest of completion that petitioner has not demonstrated a Table Injury of
    SIRVA as pleaded in the original petition. The first SIRVA QAI prong requires “no
    history of pain, inflammation or dysfunction of the affected shoulder prior to
    intramuscular vaccine administration that would explain the alleged signs, symptoms,
    examination findings, and/or diagnostic studies occurring after vaccine injection.” 
    42 CFR §100.3
    (c)(10). The Table SIRVA criteria does not necessarily require a spotless
    prior health history of the affected shoulder. Compare, O’Leary, M.D. v. Sec’y of Health
    & Human Servs., 18-584V, 
    2021 WL 3046617
    , at *8 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. June 24,
    2021) (finding petitioner suffered a Table SIRVA despite an “old history of trauma to his
    shoulder” that had previously resolved); and, Clark v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    18-813V, 
    2022 WL 16635681
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb. 7, 2022) (finding that
    “[a]lthough a total shoulder replacement relieved much of petitioner’s earlier severe
    shoulder pain, it appears, contrary to petitioner’s contention, that it never fully
    resolved.”). However, as discussed further below, I find that this case represents a
    significant aggravation of Ms. Forrest’s preexisting shoulder condition. In short, Ms.
    Forrest’s medical records confirmed she had preexisting shoulder dysfunction confirmed
    by objective imaging and medical records created shortly before vaccination indicated
    14
    her shoulder complaints were still symptomatic. Further, when she presented for care
    post-vaccination, her treating physicians understood her symptoms as an exacerbation
    of her preexisting shoulder dysfunction. And, indeed, this is also how petitioner’s expert
    approaches his causal opinion. Therefore, petitioner cannot demonstrate that Ms.
    Forrest’s history is compatible with the first SIRVA criterion. Accord Kelly v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., No. 17-1918V, 
    2022 WL 1144997
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Mar.
    24, 2022).
    b. Petitioner’s Significant Aggravation Claim
    i. Petitioner’s condition prior to administration of the vaccine
    (Loving prong one)
    In light of all of the above, and upon consideration of the record as a whole, I find
    that the following is supported by preponderant evidence: Prior to the vaccination at
    issue Ms. Forrest had right shoulder rotator cuff disease and glenohumeral joint
    osteoarthritis. (See, e.g. Ex. A, p. 7; Ex. 31, p. 1.) Ms. Forrest had a confirmed rotator
    cuff tear with only “minimal”/”no significant” tendon retraction. (Ex. 2, p. 5.) Prior to
    vaccination, symptoms associated with these conditions were occasionally exacerbated
    by isolated events (Ex. 4, pp. 20, 24); however, Ms. Forrest was not experiencing
    continuous disability. She had a baseline of ongoing pain and reduced range of motion
    that was “not overly concerning.” (E.g. Ex. 4, p. 20.) The medical records confirm that
    shortly before the vaccination at issue, on November 4, 2014, Ms. Forrest was
    experiencing only mild pain that she was satisfied managing with home exercise and
    herbal remedies. (Ex. 4, pp. 20, 40.)
    ii. Petitioner’s current condition/condition after administration of the
    vaccine (Loving prong two)
    In light of all of the above, and upon consideration of the record as a whole, I find
    that the following is supported by preponderant evidence: After vaccination, Ms. Forrest
    suffered an “exacerbation” of her prior shoulder pain along with reduced range of motion
    that both she and her primary care provider attributed to her vaccination. (Ex. 4, p. 47;
    Ex. 2, p. 31.) Her primary care physician initially focused on her reported severe pain
    for the two days following her vaccination followed by continued, but intermittent, pain,
    the pattern of which was generally consistent with symptoms of her prior shoulder
    dysfunction, but the severity of which was worse than she had been experiencing prior
    to vaccination. (Id. at 46; Ex. A, p. 8.) Eventually, her treating orthopedist diagnosed
    adhesive capsulitis in addition to her prior rotator cuff tear as explanation for her
    stiffness and reduced range of motion. (Ex. 2, pp. 31, 33.) By the time of her
    orthopedic presentation in early July of 2015, Ms. Forrest’s post-vaccination pain and
    reduced range of motion had improved but not completely resolved. (Ex. 2, p. 31.)
    Subsequently, Ms. Forrest had imaging performed on multiple occasions that confirmed
    progression of her rotator cuff tear, though her osteoarthritis was still only mild to
    moderate (Ex. 2, p. 42; Ex. 10, pp. 6-7; Ex. 8, p. 9.); however, this imaging was
    captured after Ms. Forrest experienced a separate exacerbation of her condition in that
    she reported falls to which she had attributed a “pop” in her shoulder and increased
    15
    pain. (Ex. 15, p. 20; see also Ex. 4, pp. 63, 66.) Thus, Ms. Forrest’s subsequent history
    after late July of 2015 is less informative of her condition during the months following
    her vaccination.
    iii. Whether the post-vaccination condition is a “significant
    aggravation” of the prior condition (Loving prong three)
    The Vaccine Act defines significant aggravation as “any change for the worse in
    a preexisting condition which results in markedly greater disability, pain, or illness
    accompanied by substantial deterioration of health.” § 300aa-33(4). Here, consistent
    with the statutory definition, a comparison of the findings of fact under Loving prongs
    one and two shows that Ms. Forrest’s post-vaccination condition reflects a change for
    the worse in her pre-vaccination condition inclusive of pain and disability as well as a
    physical deterioration in health during the months following her vaccination. Indeed,
    respondent agrees that Ms. Forrest’s condition deteriorated in the three years following
    her vaccination. (ECF No. 87, p. 12.) What respondent disputes is that this
    deterioration was vaccine-caused. (Id.) This is addressed relative to Loving prongs
    four through six below.
    iv. Medical theory of causation (Loving prong four/Althen prong
    one)
    Petitioner is required to present a persuasive medical theory of causation
    demonstrating that the influenza vaccine could have significantly aggravated Ms.
    Forrest’s preexisting shoulder condition. Althen, 
    418 F.3d at 1278
    . It is well-established
    in the Vaccine Program that compensation may be awarded for shoulder injuries on a
    cause-in-fact basis. See, e.g., A.P. v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 17-784V,
    
    2022 WL 275785
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Jan. 31, 2022); L.J. v. Sec'y of Health & Human
    Servs., No. 17-0059V, 
    2021 WL 6845593
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Dec. 2, 2021);
    Tenneson v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 16-1664V, 
    2018 WL 3083140
     (Fed.
    Cl. Spec. Mstr. Mar. 30, 2018), rev. den., 
    142 Fed. Cl. 329
     (2019). However,
    petitioner’s medical theory must be supported by “reputable” scientific evidence and
    must “pertain[] specifically to the petitioner’s case.” Moberly, 
    592 F.3d at 1322
    .
    Petitioner may not merely rely on the fact that SIRVA was added to the Vaccine
    Injury Table to establish a medical theory for a cause-in-fact claim. Grant v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    956 F.2d 1144
    , 1147-48 (Fed. Cir. 1992). 12 The government’s
    12In Grant, the Federal Circuit explained the distinction between Table and non-Table claims and quoted
    the legislative history of the Vaccine Act as follows:
    If the petitioner sustained or had significantly aggravated an injury not listed in the Table,
    he or she may petition for compensation. If the petitioner sustained or had significantly
    aggravated an injury listed in the Table but not within the time period set forth in the Table,
    he or she may petition for compensation. In both these cases, however, the petition must
    affirmatively demonstrate that the injury or aggravation was caused by the vaccine. Simple
    similarity to conditions or time periods listed in the Table is not sufficient evidence of
    causation; evidence in the form of scientific studies or expert medical testimony is
    necessary to demonstrate causation for such a petitioner. (Such a finding of causation is
    16
    recognition of “SIRVA” as a vaccine-caused injury was limited by the accompanying QAI
    criteria. In this case, I have already concluded for the reasons discussed above that
    petitioner has not met those criteria. Thus, if petitioner’s medical theory under Althen
    prong one/Loving prong four was limited to taking judicial notice of the government’s
    recognition of SIRVAs as occurring in some contexts, petitioner’s case would
    necessarily have to fail under Althen prong two/Loving prong five, because the facts of
    petitioner’s case do not fall within the confines of that recognition. Accord L.J., 
    2021 WL 6845593
     (taking judicial notice of the Table Injury of SIRVA under Althen prong one and
    applying the Table SIRVA QAI as the basis for assessing Althen prong two); Tenneson,
    
    2018 WL 3083140
     (same). To hold otherwise would be to expand the causal
    presumption afforded by the Vaccine Injury Table.
    Here, Dr. Bodor’s theory is not explained in depth, but exists in the form of two
    assertions. First, he opines that “[t]he mechanism of injury most likely involved injection
    of vaccine into the subacromial bursa and adjacent rotator cuff.” (Ex. 24, p. 4.) Among
    the accompanying citations, Dr. Bodor includes a publication of two case reports of
    which he is coauthor. In that report, he explains that “[w]e hypothesize that in both of
    our cases vaccine was injected into the subdeltoid bursa, causing a robust local
    immune and inflammatory response” ultimately leading to inflammation of the shoulder
    capsule due to the subdeltoid bursa being contiguous to the subacromial bursa. (Bodor
    & Montalvo, supra, at Ex. 26, p. 2.) Second, he opines that “the misplaced injection
    likely led to adhesive capsulitis.” (Ex. 24, p. 4.) This was the ultimate resulting
    condition in one of Dr. Bodor’s own two case reports. (Bodor & Montalvo, supra, at Ex.
    26, pp. 2-3.) Further to this, Dr. Bodor cites the Atanasoff article, which is well known in
    SIRVA litigation. In pertinent part, the Atanasoff authors hypothesized that:
    In general, chronic shoulder pain with or without reduced shoulder joint
    function can be caused by a number of common conditions including
    impingement syndrome, rotator cuff tear, biceps tendonitis, osteoarthritis
    and adhesive capsulitis. In many cases these conditions may cause no
    symptoms until provoked by trauma or other events. Reilly et al. reviewed a
    series of shoulder ultrasound and MRI studies obtained in asymptomatic
    persons past middle age and found partial or complete rotator cuff tears in
    39% of those individuals. Therefore, some of the MRI findings in our case
    series, such as rotator cuff tears, may have been present prior to
    vaccination and became symptomatic as a result of vaccination-associated
    synovial inflammation.
    deemed to exist for those injuries listed in the Table which occur within the time period set
    forth in the Table.)
    Grant, 956 F.2d at 1147-48 (quoting H.R.Rep. No. 908, 99th Cong., 2d Sess., pt. 1, at 15 (1986),
    reprinted in 1988 U.S.C.C.A.N. 6344, 6356) (emphasis in Grant); see also Schick-Cowell v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., 18-656V, 
    2022 WL 619839
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb. 8, 2022); A.P., 
    2022 WL 275785
    ; but see L.J., 
    2021 WL 6845593
     (taking judicial notice of the Table Injury of SIRVA under Althen
    prong one for case filed prior to inclusion of SIRVA on the Vaccine Injury Table, but decided after);
    Tenneson, 
    2018 WL 3083140
     (same).
    17
    (Atanasoff et al., supra at Ex. 28, p. 3.)
    For respondent, Dr. Bishop offers no critique that would challenge Dr. Bodor’s
    first assertion. In fact, she agrees that “[a] vaccine could cause some irritation of the
    shoulder joint . . . .” (Ex. A, p. 8.) Instead, Dr. Bishop contends with regard to Dr.
    Bodor’s second assertion that his theory conflates primary adhesive capsulitis and
    secondary adhesive capsulitis. (Ex. A, p. 9.) However, the distinction Dr. Bishop raises
    constitutes a Loving prong five rather than Loving prong four question. Dr. Bishop
    states in relevant part that “[p]rimary adhesive capsulitis, what Dr. Bodor is referring to
    in his report, is a condition that affects 3-5% of the population between ages of 30 and
    60, and only this type of adhesive capsulitis has been associated with SIRVA cases.” 13
    (Id. (citing Atanasoff et al., supra, at Ex. A, Tab 3; Beth Hibbs et al., Reports of atypical
    shoulder pain an dysfunction following inactivated influenza vaccines, Vaccine Adverse
    Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2010-2017, 38 Vaccine 1137 (2020) (Ex. A, Tab
    4)).) By Dr. Bishop’s description, primary adhesive capsulitis is idiopathic and
    “associated with capsular inflammation in the absence of a known lesion.” (Ex. A, p. 9.)
    In contrast, secondary adhesive capsulitis is a term used to describe “a constellation of
    conditions that result in stiff shoulder” secondary to “an underlying condition/pathology.”
    (Id.) Thus, Dr. Bishop is not actually challenging whether an inflammatory vaccine
    response can cause adhesive capsulitis. She acknowledges that this association has
    been observed. Rather, she is observing that some cases of what appears to be
    adhesive capsulitis are otherwise explained by known shoulder dysfunction. 14
    In his motion response, respondent stresses Dr. Bishop’s statement that “[t]here
    is no literature at all to support that an influenza vaccine can cause progression of a
    rotator cuff tear or influence the progress course of pre-existing arthritis.” (ECF No. 87,
    pp. 12-13 (quoting Ex. A, p. 9.) Further to this, respondent argues in reference to both
    Dr. Bodor’s above-discussed case report and the Atanasoff article that “[a]lthough the
    Atanasoff article theorizes that vaccination could cause symptoms to manifest in
    patients with pre-existing, asymptomatic RTC tears, neither of these articles mention the
    possibility that a vaccination could actually cause progression of a pre-existing RTC tear
    or pre-existing shoulder OA.” (Id. at 13 (emphasis original).) Importantly, however, these
    assertions reflect respondent’s interpretation of Ms. Forrest’s clinical history rather than
    petitioner’s. They do not directly refute the causal theory petitioner actually presented,
    which is based on a vaccine-caused inflammatory irritation of the joint capsule and
    ultimately adhesive capsulitis rather than progression of the underlying conditions
    themselves. 15
    13In his response, Dr. Bodor took this statement as agreement that primary adhesive capsulitis is, in fact,
    associated with SIRVA without addressing the further contention that this would not extend to secondary
    adhesive capsulitis. (Ex. 31, p. 1.) Dr. Bishop noted this in her responding report. (Ex. C, p. 2.) This
    specific point was not addressed any further in any of the subsequent expert reports.
    14 In fact, as discussed further with respect to Loving prong five, below, Dr. Bishop cites to literature that
    actually contends that the term “secondary adhesive capsulitis” is effectively a misnomer when applied in
    the manner Dr. Bishop invokes.
    15In Kelly v. Secretary of Health & Human Services, I explained that a limitation of the Atanasoff article in
    the context of significant aggravation is that it constitutes a descriptive analysis without comparison to
    18
    v. Logical sequence of cause and effect connecting the
    vaccination and significant aggravation (Loving prong
    five/Althen prong two)
    The second Althen prong/fifth Loving prong requires proof of a logical sequence
    of cause and effect showing that the vaccine was the reason for the injury, usually
    supported by facts derived from a petitioner's medical records. Althen, 
    418 F.3d at 1278
    ; Andreu ex re. Andreu v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    569 F.3d 1367
    , 1375–
    77 (Fed. Cir. 2009); Capizzano v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    440 F.3d 1317
    ,
    1326 (Fed. Cir. 2006); Grant, 956 F.2d at 1148. However, medical records and/or
    statements of a treating physician do not per se bind the special master to adopt the
    conclusions of such an individual, even if they must be considered and carefully
    evaluated. See 42 U.S.C. §300aa-13(b)(1) (providing that “[a]ny such diagnosis,
    conclusion, judgment, test result, report, or summary shall not be binding on the special
    master or court”); Snyder v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    88 Fed. Cl. 706
    , 746 n.67
    (2009) (“there is nothing . . . that mandates that the testimony of a treating physician is
    sacrosanct—that it must be accepted in its entirety and cannot be rebutted”).
    As discussed above, there is preponderant evidence that Ms. Forrest
    experienced increased pain and reduced range of motion post-vaccination relative to
    her prior baseline. Her primary care physician considered this an “exacerbation” of her
    prior shoulder complaints likely caused by her vaccination 16 and her orthopedist
    subsequently diagnosed a post-vaccination onset of adhesive capsulitis with capsular
    background rates or controls and excludes subjects with preexisting shoulder conditions. 
    2022 WL 1144997
     at *22. The Atanasoff authors further explain that there are no diagnostic tests available to
    assess whether the shoulder dysfunction they observed was vaccine-caused, leaving only their ability to
    clinically isolate the onset of symptoms to identify post-vaccination shoulder injuries as a distinct entity.
    (Atanasoff et al., supra, at Ex. 28, p. 4.) Thus, while the Atanasoff hypothesis is not wholly irrelevant to
    the significant aggravation context, the article itself is not helpful in distinguishing under what
    circumstances it would be reasonable to conclude that a vaccine can cause a worsening of the clinical
    presentation of a preexisting condition that is already symptomatic. In Kelly, the petitioner overcame this
    limitation by providing epidemiology that showed a statistically significant risk of post-vaccination bursitis
    where the Kelly petitioner himself had evidence of bursitis. Kelly, 
    2022 WL 1144997
     at *22-23. Here, the
    specific expert presentations regarding adhesive capsulitis as discussed relative to both Loving prongs
    four and five, and the diagnosis of adhesive capsulitis arising post-vaccination, play a similar role. Had
    the contours of the expert opinions in this case been different, and had Dr. Bishop more directly
    challenged Dr. Bodor’s theory as a matter of general rather than specific causation, it is not clear that the
    literature Dr. Bodor relied upon would be persuasive without more.
    16 To be clear, in identifying an “exacerbation” of Ms. Forrest’s condition, Dr. Allred does include a
    reference to a possible “progression” of Ms. Forrest’s rotator cuff tear (Ex. 4, p. 47), which I explained
    relative to Loving prong four is not petitioner’s medical theory of the case. However, considering his
    impression as a whole, it is clear that this is not the sum total of Dr. Allred’s opinion. He also cites a post-
    vaccination inflammatory process, bursitis, and nerve injury as possible mechanisms. On the whole it is
    clear that his impression balances his knowledge of Ms. Forrest’s chronic conditions against her more
    acute presentation to opine that the chronic conditions alone do not explain her presentation. Although
    this ruling repeatedly references his use of the term “exacerbation” as a shorthand, the medical record as
    a whole reflects a medical opinion consistent with significant aggravation regardless of the specific use of
    that term.
    19
    irritability as an additional overlay to her preexisting rotator cuff disease. (Ex. 4, p .47;
    Ex. 2, pp. 32-33.) Based on his analysis of Ms. Forrest’s complete medical history and
    his theory of causation, petitioner’s expert opines that this constitutes a significant
    aggravation of her condition in the form of worsened symptoms and a vaccine-caused
    adhesive capsulitis. (Ex. 31.) Respondent’s contrary view raises two overarching
    questions: (1) whether Ms. Forrest’s adhesive capsulitis diagnosed post-vaccination
    must be understood as secondary to her preexisting shoulder dysfunction; and (2)
    whether Ms. Forrest’s post-vaccination presentation is explained by the natural
    progression of her preexisting condition. Respondent asserts the answer to both
    questions is yes, thereby defeating petitioner’s claim that Ms. Forrest’s vaccine did
    substantially contribute to a worsening of her condition. However, this is not
    persuasive.
    There are significant limitations regarding Dr. Bishop’s opinion that Ms. Forrest’s
    adhesive capsulitis must necessarily be understood as secondary to her preexisting
    condition(s) to the exclusion of a vaccine-caused inflammatory process. First, the
    literature Dr. Bishop cites explains that the question is one of clinical judgment. While
    underlying shoulder pathology can be a cause of the symptoms of adhesive capsulitis,
    these materials do not support any contention that preexisting shoulder pathology per
    se explains adhesive capsulitis. Neviaser and Hannafin explain that “[d]iagnosis can be
    challenging as factors both intrinsic and extrinsic to the shoulder can cause stiffness
    and pain.” (Neviaser & Hannafin, supra, at Ex. 29, p. 1 (also filed as Ex. A, Tab 2).)
    “Distinguishing between primary or idiopathic disease and pain due to other causes can
    be difficult and there is frequent overlap.” (Id. at 2.) “Subtle clues in the history and
    physical examination allow discrimination of primary adhesive capsulitis from these
    other conditions.” (Id.)
    Here, although the medical records are not robust, the expressed views of the
    treating physicians are closer to petitioner’s view than respondent’s. Given his ongoing
    treatment relationship with Ms. Forrest spanning both her pre- and post- vaccination
    history, Dr. Allred was well positioned to exercise clinical judgment in determining
    whether Ms. Forrest’s own preexisting shoulder pain was exacerbated by extrinsic
    factors. 17 The Federal Circuit has recognized that “treating physicians are likely to be in
    the best position to determine whether ‘a logical sequence of cause and effect show[s]
    that the vaccination was the reason for the injury.’” Capizzano, 
    440 F.3d at 1326
    (quoting Althen, 
    418 F.3d at 1280
    ); Nuttall v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    122 Fed. Cl. 821
    , 832 (2015) (noting the importance of the prior treatment relationship in giving
    special weight to treating physician opinions), aff'd, 
    640 F. App'x 996
     (Fed. Cir. 2016).
    Second, the literature Dr. Bishop cites further explains that the term “secondary
    adhesive capsulitis” is used in two distinct contexts. In some cases, it is used to refer to
    17 Ms. Forrest’s primary care records show that a number of different physicians were involved in her care
    in the years prior to her vaccination. (Ex. 4, passim.) However, Dr. Allred was the physician that saw Ms.
    Forrest during her last encounter prior to vaccination. (Id. at 40-43.) He was also involved in her care in
    an attending capacity during prior encounters where she had reported prior inciting events that had
    aggravated her shoulder pain. (Id. at 20-27.) Thus, he was familiar with both her overall history and her
    baseline just prior to vaccination.
    20
    “extra-articular cause(s) of shoulder stiffness without involvement of the joint capsule.”
    (Neviaser & Hannafin, supra, at Ex. 29, p. 2 (Ex. A, Tab 2).) This is the context in which
    secondary adhesive capsulitis may be explained by conditions such as glenohumeral
    arthritis and rotator cuff injury. (Id.) However, that use is effectively a misnomer. In
    contrast, “secondary adhesive capsulitis” may also be used to refer to isolated areas of
    capsular contracture that occur concurrently with other known injuries or diseases. (Id.)
    In that context, secondary adhesive capsulitis may be “indistinguishable from idiopathic
    adhesive capsulitis.” (Id.) “The differentiation between the stiff and painful shoulder
    without any joint capsule involvement and with capsule involvement (true adhesive
    capsulitis) must be established before a rational treatment can be prescribed.” (RJ
    Neviaser & TJ Neviaser, The frozen shoulder: diagnosis and management, 2223 CLIN.
    ORTHOP. RELAT. RES. 59 (1987) (Ex. A, Tab 5).) 18 “Although frozen shoulder and
    adhesive capsulitis are frequently used interchangeably, recognition that many
    conditions can cause a stiff and painful shoulder while adhesive capsulitis is a distinct
    pathological entity is essential for evaluating both patients and the literature.” (Neviaser
    & Hannafin, supra, at Ex. A, Tab 2, p. 1.) The cause of true adhesive capsulitis is not
    known, but it has been linked to many preceding factors, including trauma and
    autoimmune disease. (Id.) And importantly, as Dr. Bishop recognizes, it has also been
    linked to vaccination. (Ex. A, p. 9.)
    In this case, Dr. Widner’s treating orthopedic assessment does not use the
    specific terminology of “primary” or “secondary” to describe Ms. Forrest’s adhesive
    capsulitis; however, on physical examination he recorded “capsular irritability,” which
    strongly suggests his opinion was that Ms. Forrest had capsule involvement, i.e. true
    adhesive capsulitis. (Ex. 2, pp. 32-33.) Thus, Dr. Bishop is not persuasive with respect
    to her suggestion that Ms. Forrest’s own adhesive capsulitis is readily distinguishable
    from the type of primary or idiopathic adhesive capsulitis that is associated with
    vaccination. Dr. Bishop’s opinion on this point is also less persuasive because she
    acknowledges that Ms. Forrest did experience at least temporary irritation of the
    shoulder joint caused by her vaccination and therefore relies on the notion that Ms.
    Forrest’s subsequently diagnosed adhesive capsulitis is merely coincidental to this
    irritation despite the fact that her other shoulder dysfunction had existed for years prior
    and despite seeming to accept that vaccinations can lead to adhesive capsulitis. (Ex. A,
    p. 8.)
    With regard to the second question raised by respondent’s defense, while it is
    undoubtedly true that rotator cuff tears and osteoarthritis can both progress over time
    generally, both Dr. Bishop and respondent acknowledge that this is not Ms. Forrest’s
    own history. Dr. Bishop stated that “[i]n addition to just the element of time, Ms. Forrest
    had many documented falls over the years and [it] is certainly possible that any of her
    falls, especially the ones that precipitated a call to see her doctor, could have led to
    progression of her rotator cuff tear and would have certainly aggravated her significant
    18 Respondent’s Exhibit A, Tab 5, appears to be only the abstract of the article by Neviaser & Neviaser.
    This quote from the abstract simply underscores the differentiation of adhesive capsulitis with capsular
    involvement specifically as “true” adhesive capsulitis, which is also consistent with the substance of the
    Neviaser & Hannafin article. (See Neviaser & Hannafin, supra, at Ex. 29 (also filed as Ex. A, Tab 2).)
    21
    underlying osteoarthritis. (Ex. A, p. 10.) Thus, even by respondent’s own
    characterization it is not the case that the progression of Ms. Forrest’s condition is
    explained merely by the passage of time or the general nature of her degenerative
    conditions as progressive. Indeed, while Dr. Bishop explains that it is a “hallmark” of
    osteoarthritis that “there are times when it flares up and times when it clams down,” she
    specifically couches these flares as constituting “aggravat[ions]” of the osteoarthritis.
    (Ex. A, p. 9.) In that context, respondent offers little reason for his disbelief that Ms.
    Forrest’s vaccination would constitute a further aggravating event occurring in the
    course of a condition he acknowledges to have otherwise been aggravated multiple
    times. As noted above, this is especially difficult to accept given that Dr. Bishop agrees
    that Ms. Forrest likely did suffer at least a limited inflammatory reaction within her
    shoulder joint. (Ex. A, p. 8.)
    To the extent Dr. Bishop relies on Ms. Forrest’s objective imaging to confirm the
    progression of Ms. Forrest’s preexisting conditions, the later imagining available for
    comparison post-dates the falls that Dr. Bishop agrees were likely to have been
    contributory. (Ex. A, p. 9 (citing Ex. 2, p. 42; Ex. 7, p. 36).) Thus, the imaging is not
    evidence of a “natural” progression of the underlying conditions and is not suggestive of
    the condition of Ms. Forrest’s shoulder between the time of her vaccination and the
    subsequent falls. Further to this, it was the opinion of Ms. Forrest’s primary care
    physician, who followed her shoulder condition both before and after the vaccination,
    that the post-vaccination presentation constituted an “exacerbation” of her condition
    rather than being explained as part of a waxing and waning course of the condition. In
    any event, petitioner is not obligated to prove that Ms. Forrest’s ultimate outcome was
    worse than the expected course of her condition. Sharpe, 964 F.3d at 1082. Rather,
    petitioner is obligated to demonstrate that Ms. Forrest’s vaccination was a substantial
    factor that affected her condition. Id. (citing Locane v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    
    685 F.3d 1375
     (Fed. Cir. 2012). Thus, even if Ms. Forrest’s later falls obscured whether
    her post-vaccination adhesive capsulitis meaningfully contributed to her later history,
    this would not defeat a claim based on the arc of symptoms she experienced in the
    months following her vaccination.
    vi. Proximate temporal relationship between vaccination and
    significant aggravation (Loving prong six/Althen prong three)
    The third Althen prong/sixth Loving prong requires establishing a “proximate
    temporal relationship” between the vaccination and the injury alleged. Althen, 
    418 F.3d at 1281
    . That term has been equated to the phrase “medically-acceptable temporal
    relationship.” 
    Id.
     A petitioner must offer “preponderant proof that the onset of
    symptoms occurred within a timeframe which, given the medical understanding of the
    disorder's etiology, it is medically acceptable to infer causation.” de Bazan v. Sec'y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    539 F.3d 1347
    , 1352 (Fed. Cir. 2008).
    Here, petitioner argues that the medical records reflect an onset of Ms. Forrest’s
    post-vaccination symptoms that was “almost immediate,” stressing Ms. Forrest’s initial
    report to her primary care provider that she had severe pain during the two days
    following her vaccination. (ECF No. 85, p. 19.) Petitioner argues this is appropriate
    22
    timing when compared against the 48-hour onset reflected on the Vaccine Injury Table
    for SIRVA. (Id.) Although this is not a Table SIRVA claim, petitioner argues that she
    has set forth a mechanism of significant aggravation that is “essentially the same as any
    SIRVA injury.” (Id. at 16.) Thus, for example, the above-discussed Atanasoff article
    likewise indicates that a clear majority of subjects experienced onset of shoulder pain
    within 24 hours of vaccination. (Atanasoff et al., supra, at Ex. 28, p. 2 (Table 1).)
    Respondent does not dispute any of these points but contends that the two days of
    post-vaccination pain that Ms. Forrest reported are separate from her ongoing
    symptoms that are better attributed to her osteoarthritis and her rotator cuff tear. (ECF
    No. 87, p. 12.) In particular, respondent argues that “petitioner improperly conflates the
    brief period of pain decedent reported in the days immediately following vaccination with
    the ongoing progression of her RTC tear and OA” and further that “considering the
    record as a whole, Dr. Bishop opines that any symptoms after May 15, 2015, were
    unrelated and instead represented the natural course of her pre-existing shoulder
    pathology.” (Id. at 21.) There are two issues with this line of reasoning.
    First, to the extent respondent appears to contend Ms. Forrest suffered only a
    couple days of distinct pain, this misinterprets Ms. Forrest’s initial encounter with her
    primary care physician on January 19, 2015. (Ex. 4, p. 46.) Respondent is correct that
    the history of present illness specifically reports that petitioner had “severe pain and
    difficulty lifting her right should[er] during the 2 days following her flu shot.” (Id.)
    However, it also states that “[t]he pain has caused multiple sleepless nights since that
    time and persists until today.” (Id.) Thus, the medical records do not support any
    contention that the reference to two days of severe post-vaccination pain represented
    an isolated and unrelated phenomenon. Even accounting for Dr. Bishop’s opinion that
    the intermittency of symptoms reported as part of this history is consistent with how
    osteoarthritis and rotator cuff tears present, this has far less significance in the context
    of significant aggravation. Dr. Allred, who had previously treated Ms. Forrest, was
    aware of Ms. Forrest’s preexisting shoulder dysfunction and concluded that the history
    she reported was consistent with an exacerbation of the symptoms of her own
    condition. (Ex. 4, pp. 20, 24, 40, 47.) Inherent to that opinion would be an
    understanding that the complained of symptoms are consistent with known
    symptomology of the preceding condition only worse than they had been before.
    Second, respondent’s reliance on the May 15, 2015, follow up encounter is also
    misplaced. Respondent contends that the fact that Ms. Forrest’s condition was “almost
    resolved” is evidence that it was more likely “associated with a mild irritation caused by
    her vaccination.” (ECF No. 87, p. 21 (quoting Ex. A, p. 8).) While respondent is correct
    that this record provides a history that Ms. Forrest’s pain “has slowly been improving”
    and, in fact, reportedly was “almost resolved,” her medical records do not reflect this as
    the termination of either the course of her condition or her relevant treatment of that
    condition. (Ex. 4, p. 50.) Specifically, although Dr. Allred recorded “interval
    improvement” in Ms. Forrest’s shoulder pain, he referred her to physical therapy at that
    time. (Id. at 51.) Moreover, Ms. Forrest subsequently sought further follow up
    treatment from an orthopedist where in July of 2015 she received her adhesive
    23
    capsulitis diagnosis based in part on a history of more severe symptoms over the prior
    six months. (Ex. 2, p. 33.)
    c. Factor Unrelated
    Once petitioner has satisfied her own burden pursuant to the Loving test, the
    burden shifts to respondent to demonstrate that the injury was caused by factors
    unrelated to vaccination. § 300aa-13(a)(1)(B); Deribeaux v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    717 F.3d 1363
    , 1367 (Fed. Cir. 2013). In order to meet his burden, respondent
    must demonstrate by preponderant evidence “that a particular agent or condition (or
    multiple agents/conditions) unrelated to the vaccine was in fact the sole cause (thus
    excluding the vaccine as a substantial factor).” de Bazan, 
    539 F.3d at 1354
    . In this
    case, respondent has argued that Ms. Forrest’s vaccination was not a substantial factor
    in bringing about her alleged injury. Respondent’s arguments have been considered in
    the context of the above Loving analysis. Because his arguments were unpersuasive in
    that context, they likewise fail to suggest he has met his own burden of proof.
    VII.   Conclusion
    For all the reasons discussed above, after weighing the evidence of record within
    the context of this Program, I find by preponderant evidence that petitioner has
    demonstrated that Ms. Forrest suffered a significant aggravation of her pre-existing
    shoulder injury caused-in-fact by her December 16, 2014, flu vaccination. A separate
    damages order will be issued.
    IT IS SO ORDERED.
    s/Daniel T. Horner
    Daniel T. Horner
    Special Master
    24