Halverson v. Secretary of Health and Human Services ( 2020 )


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  •      In the United States Court of Federal Claims
    OFFICE OF SPECIAL MASTERS
    No. 15-227V
    (Filed: February 4, 2020)
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * *                       *
    BERNARD HALVERSON, EXECUTOR                       *        To Be Published
    of the ESTATE of SUSAN                            *
    HALVERSON, deceased,                              *
    *        High-Dose Influenza (“Fluzone”);
    Petitioner,                       *        Vaccine; Cardiac Arrest; Death;
    *        Significant Aggravation
    v.                                                *
    *
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH                               *
    AND HUMAN SERVICES,                               *
    *
    Respondent.                       *
    *
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * *                       *
    Jerry Lindheim, Esq., Locks Law Firm, Philadelphia, PA, for petitioner.
    Lisa Watts, Esq., U.S. Dept. of Justice, Washington, D.C., for respondent.
    RULING ON ENTITLEMENT1
    Roth, Special Master:
    On March 4, 2015, Bernard Halverson (“Mr. Halverson” or “petitioner”) filed a petition
    for compensation under the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-
    10, et seq.2 (“Vaccine Act” or “Program”) as executor of the estate of his late wife, Susan
    Halverson (“Mrs. Halverson”). Petitioner alleges that Mrs. Halverson received a high-dose
    1
    This Ruling has been designated “to be published,” which means I am directing it to be posted on the
    Court of Federal Claims’s website, in accordance with the E-Government Act of 2002, Pub. L. No. 107-
    347, 116 Stat. 2899, 2913 (codified as amended at 44 U.S.C. § 3501 note (2006)). This means the Ruling
    will available to anyone with access to the internet. However, the parties may object to the Ruling’s
    inclusion of certain kinds of confidential information. Specifically, under Vaccine Rule 18(b), each party
    has fourteen days within which to request redaction “of any information furnished by that party: (1) that is
    a trade secret or commercial or financial in substance and is privileged or confidential; or (2) that includes
    medical files or similar files, the disclosure of which would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of
    privacy.” Vaccine Rule 18(b). Otherwise, the whole Ruling will be available to the public. 
    Id. 2 National
    Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986, Pub. L. No. 99-660, 100 Stat. 3755 (1986). Hereinafter,
    for ease of citation, all “§” references to the Vaccine Act will be to the pertinent subparagraph of 42 U.S.C.
    § 300aa (2012).
    seasonal influenza vaccine (“Fluzone”) on January 9, 2014, which caused cardiac arrest and her
    subsequent death on January 13, 2014. See Petition (“Pet.”), ECF No. 1. Alternatively, petitioner
    claims that the flu vaccine significantly aggravated Mrs. Halverson’s ischemic heart disease,
    leading to her death.
    As explained fully and in detail below, petitioner has established that the high-dose flu
    vaccine received by Mrs. Halverson was a substantial factor in her cardiac arrest and subsequent
    death.
    I.      Procedural History
    The petition was filed on March 4, 2015. ECF No. 1. On April 2, 2015, petitioner filed
    Mrs. Halverson’s death certificate and medical records, as well as proof that he had been appointed
    the executor of her estate, as Petitioner’s Exhibits (“Pet. Ex.”) 1-9.3 ECF No. 7. These exhibits
    were later stricken from the record as incorrectly filed. See Non-PDF Order, issued Aug. 25, 2016.
    The initial status conference was held on May 7, 2015. Petitioner was ordered to file
    additional medical records. Scheduling Order, ECF No. 8.
    On July 16, 2015, respondent filed his Rule 4(c) Report (“Resp. Rpt.”), stating that this
    case was not appropriate for compensation. Resp. Rpt., ECF No. 13. More specifically, respondent
    noted that Mrs. Halverson’s cardiologist had previously discussed her risk of sudden cardiac death
    related to ventricular tachycardia, which resulted in Mrs. Halverson having an automatic
    implantable cardioverter defibrillator (“AICD”) placed. 
    Id. at 3.
    Respondent submitted that Mrs.
    Halverson’s death was the result of her longstanding heart disease which was marked by worsening
    cardiac function over the previous year, and required placement of the AICD. 
    Id. at 7.
    Following a status conference on November 12, 2015,4 petitioner was ordered to file expert
    reports. Scheduling Order, ECF No. 27. Petitioner filed expert reports from Dr. Robert Stark and
    Dr. Gourang Patel on January 28, 2016. Pet. Ex. 10-11, ECF No. 30.
    On June 14, 2016, respondent filed an expert report from Dr. Joseph Murphy. Resp. Ex.
    A-B, ECF No. 33. Respondent filed an addendum to Dr. Murphy’s report on June 16, 2016. Resp.
    Ex. C, ECF No. 34.
    Petitioner filed two additional reports from Dr. Stark on July 5 and 8, 2016. Pet. Ex. 19,
    ECF No. 35, 38;5 Pet. Ex. 20, ECF No. 37.
    Respondent filed an expert report from Dr. Noel Rose on July 6, 2016 and supporting
    medical literature on July 11, 2016. Resp. Ex. D-E, ECF No. 36; Resp. Ex. F-N, ECF No. 39.
    3
    Petitioner submitted an affidavit that stated nothing more than he had not filed a civil action in this
    matter. See Pet. Ex. 5.
    4
    This case was reassigned to me on October 19, 2015. ECF No. 21.
    5
    Dr. Stark’s report, Pet. Ex. 19, was filed twice and occurs on the docket at ECF Nos. 35 and 38.
    2
    Petitioner filed medical literature on July 12, 2016, as Pet. Ex. B-L. ECF No. 40. These
    exhibits were later stricken due to improper filing. See Non-PDF Order, issued Aug. 25, 2016.
    A status conference was held on July 14, 2016. Scheduling Order, ECF No. 41. During the
    conference, it was “clarified that petitioner’s experts claim that [Mrs. Halverson’s] death was not
    necessarily caused by the vaccine, but rather that the vaccine significantly aggravated petitioner’s
    pre-morbidities and contributed to petitioner’s eventual death.” 
    Id. at 1.
    Respondent requested the
    opportunity for supplemental reports to “flesh out” his response to petitioner’s significant
    aggravation claim. 
    Id. Respondent was
    ordered to file supplemental expert reports by September
    12, 2016. 
    Id. at 2.
    Respondent filed a second report from Dr. Murphy and supporting medical literature on
    August 3, 2016. Resp. Ex. O-U, ECF No. 42.
    Petitioner filed a Motion to Strike Pet. Ex. 1-14 and his supporting medical literature, which
    was filed as “Medical Exhibits A-L,” due to improper filing. See Motion to Strike, ECF No. 43.
    This Motion was granted. Non-PDF Order, issued Aug. 25, 2016. Petitioner properly filed Pet. Ex.
    1-16 on September 7, 2016. See Pet. Ex. 1-9, ECF No. 44; Pet. Ex. 10-16, ECF No. 45.
    Respondent filed an additional expert report from Dr. Rose on September 9, 2016. Resp.
    Ex. V, ECF No. 46.
    Petitioner filed supplemental expert reports from Dr. Stark and Dr. Patel on September 13,
    2016. Pet. Ex. 17-23, ECF No. 47.
    A Rule 5 status conference was held on December 21, 2016. Scheduling Order, ECF No.
    48. I summarized the medical records as follows:
    …Ms. [sic] Halverson, then 65 years old, had a complicated medical history which
    included but was not limited to congestive heart failure, insulin dependent diabetes, renal
    failure, hypertension and left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mrs. Halverson’s health
    declined in 2013 due to her heart problems, and in September of 2013 she underwent
    implantation of a biventricular cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) to avoid the risk of sudden
    cardiac death. Mrs. Halverson was noted to be doing well in the months that followed the
    implantation of the defibrillator. On January 9, 2014, Mrs. Halverson presented to her
    doctor with complaints of congestion, ears feeling clogged, loose cough, and scratchy
    throat….She was administered the Fluzone high dose vaccine intramuscularly. In the days
    that followed, Mrs. Halverson was noted to be weaker, with cough and congestion,
    decreased food and water intake, and shortness of breath. On January 13, 2014, Mrs.
    Halverson went to get dressed so that her husband could take her to the emergency room.
    She apparently went into cardiac arrest. According to her husband, the internal
    defibrillator’s warning system did not sound. Attempts to resuscitate her were unsuccessful
    and Mrs. Halverson passed away at that time.
    
    Id. at 1.
    Following that recitation, I noted that no blood work was performed on Mrs. Halverson in
    the course of her emergency treatment, and no autopsy was performed after her death. 
    Id. The 3
    parties were encouraged to settle this matter, but were unable to reach a resolution. Id.; Joint Status
    Report, ECF No. 49.
    An entitlement hearing was initially scheduled for November 5 and 6, 2018, to be held in
    Washington, D.C. Prehearing Order, ECF No. 51. It was later rescheduled to November 6 and 7,
    2018. Scheduling Order, ECF No. 58.
    The parties elected not to file post-hearing briefs. See Transcript (“Tr.”) 313-14.
    This matter is ripe for decision.
    II.     Overview of Heart Function
    The heart is made up of four chambers. Heart, DORLAND’S ILLUSTRATED MEDICAL
    DICTIONARY 825 (32nd ed. 2012) [hereinafter “DORLAND’S”]. The upper two chambers are called
    the atria and the lower two chambers are called the ventricles. 
    Id. The heart
    functions as a two-part
    pump. MARY M. CANOBBIO, CARDIOVASCULAR DISORDERS 4 (William G. Brottmiller ed., 1st ed.
    1990) [hereinafter “CANOBBIO”]. The sinoatrial (“SA”) node conducts an electrical impulse which
    causes both atria to contract, forcing blood from the atria into the ventricles. 
    Id. at 6,
    15. The
    atrioventricular (“AV”) node, located in the floor of the right atrium, receives the electrical impulse
    and spreads it to the ventricles. 
    Id. at 15.
    The ventricles then contract, pushing blood out to the
    body. 
    Id. at 6.
    The chambers of the heart only contract if stimulated by electrical activity. GAIL
    WALRAVEN, BASIC ARRHYTHMIAS 2 (3rd ed. 1992) [hereinafter “WALRAVEN”].
    If another conduction site in the heart discharges electrical impulses at a faster-than-normal
    rate, it can override the SA node and take over the pacemaking function for the heart. WALRAVEN
    at 8. The process of another conduction site taking over as pacemaker is called “irritability.” 
    Id. Increased irritability
    to either the atria or the ventricles can result in increased electrical impulses.
    This can cause “fibrillation,” where the chamber “quivers ineffectively” rather than contracting
    fully. 
    Id. at 100.
    Atrial fibrillation (“Afib”) causes the ventricular rhythm to be “grossly irregular,”
    but Afib can be managed via medication. 
    Id. at 100-01;
    CANOBBIO at 67. In contrast, ventricular
    fibrillation (“Vfib”) is a lethal arrhythmia because the heart rhythm becomes chaotic and
    ineffective. WALRAVEN at 191.
    Afib occurring alone can be unrecognizable or very symptomatic. HURST’S THE HEART
    824 (Valentin Furster et al. eds., 10th ed. 2001) [hereinafter “HURST’S”]. However, when Afib
    occurs in conjunction with other cardiac conditions, such as mitral or aortic stenosis, restrictive
    cardiomyopathies, or advanced left ventricular dysfunction, Afib may cause severe hemodynamic
    deterioration. 
    Id. Afib can
    be caused by mitral or aortic stenosis or regurgitation, hypertension,
    coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, atrial septal defect, or pericarditis; it can also occur
    secondary to left or right ventricular overload. 
    Id. at 826.
    People with Afib are five times more
    likely to have a stroke than people who do not have Afib. 
    Id. at 828.
    Chronic recurrent atrial
    fibrillation may require an automatic implantable cardioverter defibrillator (“AICD”). 
    Id. at 828.
    Vfib occurs most commonly in the setting of acute ischemic events, like myocardial
    infarction, or in advanced chronic ischemic heart disease. HURST’S at 852. It is the cause of death
    4
    in 25 to 50 percent of all cardiac fatalities. 
    Id. Vfib may
    also develop during ischemia caused by
    coronary artery spasm or atrial fibrillation with rapid ventricular responses. 
    Id. A particularly
    high-
    risk setting for Vfib is acute myocardial infarction with right or left bundle-branch block. 
    Id. Vfib is
    a life-threatening condition that requires emergency defibrillation. 
    Id. at 853.
    Chronic Vfib requires implantation of an AICD. HURST’S at 854. An AICD is implanted
    in the chest and connected to the heart via electrodes. 
    Id. at 950.
    The AICD detects abnormal heart
    rhythms, such as Vfib, and defibrillates the heart via an electric shock within 10 to 15 seconds of
    detecting Vfib. 
    Id. at 947.
    AICDs are very effective in terminating ventricular tachydysrhythmias;
    in a large-scale study over five years, approximately 98% of episodes of Vfib were detected and
    successfully terminated. 
    Id. at 1037.
    However, the overall mortality in patients with AICDs
    remains high at approximately 22% because most AICD recipients already have heart failure. 
    Id. at 954;
    Resp. Ex. S at 42.6 The AICD may help the patient survive an episode of Vfib, but the
    patient may still die due to other cardiac problems. HURST’S at 954.
    Factors that contribute to Afib and Vfib are smoking, excessive caffeine, obesity, high
    blood pressure, diabetes, high alcohol intake, hyperthyroidism, coronary heart disease, and heart
    failure. See CANOBBIO at 72; Resp. Ex. V, Tab 6 at 1, 4.7
    Myocardial infarction, commonly referred to as heart attack, and cardiac arrest are very
    different. In a heart attack, a blocked artery prevents blood from reaching sections of the heart; if
    it is not opened quickly, the part of the heart normally nourished by that artery begins to die. See
    CONOBBIO at 81. Symptoms can include chest pain, shortness of breath, dizziness, nausea and
    vomiting, weakness, gastrointestinal distress, and/or low-grade fever. 
    Id. at 85-86.
    Symptoms can
    be immediate or start slowly and persist for hours, days, or weeks before a heart attack. HURST’S
    at 1278-79.
    Cardiac arrest is the sudden cessation of the pumping function of the heart; it signifies
    either ventricular fibrillation or ventricular standstill. Cardiac arrest, DORLAND’S at 133. It is
    characterized by abrupt loss of consciousness that uniformly leads to death without immediate
    intervention. HURST’S at 1030. Cardiac arrest can occur as a result of the electrophysiologic effects
    of acute ischemia, acute changes in mechanoelectrical feedback, or changes in autonomic
    innervation of the heart. 
    Id. at 1022-23.
    Approximately 70% of patients who have cardiac arrest
    suffer from Vfib; many also have coronary artery disease or other underlying structural heart
    disease. 
    Id. There are
    increased risks of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events following upper
    respiratory tract infections like influenza. Resp. Ex. K at 8-10.8 Potential adverse events include
    6
    Steve E. Phurrough et al., Decision Memo for Implantable Defibrillators (CAG-00157R3), CMS.GOV (Jan.
    27, 2005) (printed July 25, 2016), filed as “Resp. Ex. S.”
    7
    Darae Ko et al., Atrial Fibrillation in Women: Epidemiology, Pathophysiology, Presentation, and
    Prognosis, 13 NAT. REV. CARDIOL. 321-32 (2016), filed as “Resp. Ex. V, Tab 6.”
    8
    Kristin L. Nichol et al., Influenza Vaccination and Reduction in Hospitalizations for Cardiac Disease and
    Stroke among the Elderly, 348 N. ENGL. J. MED. 14: 1322-32 (2003), filed as “Resp. Ex. K.”
    5
    alterations in circulating clotting factors, platelet aggregation and lysis, concentrations of
    inflammatory-response proteins, and alterations in cytokine concentrations. 
    Id. These changes
    might enhance thrombotic tendencies, impair vasodilation, or cause endothelial injury. 
    Id. Influenza vaccines
    are recommended for persons over the age of 65 and for anyone with a high-
    risk medical condition in order to reduce the risk of hospitalization for cardiac and cerebrovascular
    causes. 
    Id. at 10.
    However, subspecialists are less likely than generalists to recommend influenza
    vaccination to their high-risk patients, and only half of cardiology practices in the U.S. stock
    influenza vaccine compared to 70% of primary care practices. Id.; Resp. Ex. L at 4.9
    III.    Medical History
    A.       Mrs. Halverson’s Health Prior to Receiving Fluzone
    Mrs. Halverson was born on December 14, 1948. Pet. Ex. 3 at 2. Her father suffered from
    diabetes and heart disease before passing away at age 65, while her mother had heart disease and
    hypertensive disorder and passed away at age 62. 
    Id. At the
    time of her death, Mrs. Halverson and
    her husband, the petitioner, had been married for almost 44 years. Tr. 8.
    Mrs. Halverson had a complicated medical history. At the time of her death, her chronic
    conditions included insulin-dependent diabetes, stage IV chronic kidney disease, hypertension,
    hyperlipidemia, hypothyroidism, anemia, obesity, left bundle branch block,10 ventricular
    tachycardia, ischemic heart disease, occasional palpitations, and congestive heart failure with left
    ventricular diastolic dysfunction (NYHA class II).11 See Pet. Ex. 3 at 2-7; Pet. Ex. 4 at 7, 11; Pet.
    Ex. 7 at 1, 5.
    Mrs. Halverson’s past surgical history included a vitrectomy in 1986, a 1987 repair of an
    atrial septal defect (“ASD”) that had existed since childhood, orthopedic surgeries on her left palm
    in 1994 and on both shoulders in 1996, and cataract surgeries in 2003 and 2004. Pet. Ex. 3 at 2. In
    2000, she developed complete heart block and underwent placement of a permanent pacemaker;
    she required a second procedure in 2001 due to lead dislodgement and later had multiple generator
    changes. Pet. Ex. 7 at 41, 104. Mrs. Halverson was a smoker for 25 years but quit in or around
    2004. Pet. Ex. 3 at 3.
    9
    Matthew M. Davis et al., Influenza Vaccination as Secondary Prevention for Cardiovascular Disease, 48
    J. AM. COLL. CARDIOL. 7: 1498-1502 (2006), filed as “Resp. Ex. L.”
    10
    “Left bundle branch” refers to the left branch of the bundle of His, “a small band of atypical cardiac
    muscle fibers” which “propagates the atrial contract rhythm to the ventricles.” Bundle of His, DORLAND’S
    at 260 The left bundle branch transmits the atrial contraction rhythm from the AV node to the left ventricle.
    The interruption of the left bundle branch can cause heart block. Bundle branch, 
    id. at 248.
    11
    “NYHA class II” refers to the New York Heart Association classification, a functional and therapeutic
    classification for prescription of physical activity for cardiac patients. A person who falls into Class II has
    a slight limitation of activity, with symptoms on moderate or normal exertion. New York Heart Association
    (NHYA) c., DORLAND’S at 369.
    6
    In 2008, Mrs. Halverson was assessed for ventricular systolic dysfunction due to a high
    rate of ventricular episodes. Pet. Ex. 7 at 28. She had experienced frequent episodes of palpitations
    without chest pain or lightheadedness but sometimes accompanied by shortness of breath. 
    Id. Her cardiologist,
    Dr. Arluck, concluded that she had idiopathic ventricular tachycardia in the absence
    of left ventricular systolic dysfunction or severe ischemic heart disease that did not warrant
    suppression for prevention of sudden cardiac death at that time. 
    Id. at 28-29.
    In 2009, Mrs. Halverson’s pacemaker check showed runs of non-sustained ventricular
    tachycardia (“NSVT”).12 Pet. Ex. 6 at 35-36; Pet. Ex. 7 at 26-27. Dr. Arluck noted a concern for
    high estimated right ventricular systolic pressure but did not suggest immediate action to address
    it. 
    Id. On April
    9, 2010, Mrs. Halverson presented to Dr. Arluck emergently. Pet. Ex. 4 at 53-54;
    Pet. Ex. 6 at 29-30; Pet. Ex. 7 at 20-21. Three days before, she had called Dr. Arluck, complaining
    of extreme lightheadedness ongoing for four or five days. 
    Id. He instructed
    her to “hold Captopril,”
    and her dizziness resolved. 
    Id. It was
    noted that Mrs. Halverson had a “fairly brittle cardiovascular
    system,” and with a bit of excess fluid she would have symptoms of congestion. 
    Id. She also
    had
    diabetic proteinuria. 
    Id. Blood work
    throughout 2010 and onward showed high glucose, BUN, and creatinine, with
    low eGFR, sodium, and chloride. Pet. Ex. 4 at 20-22, 33-36, 41-42, 46, 48, 51-52, 57; Pet. Ex. 6
    at 44-49; Pet. Ex. 8 at 157- Pet. Ex. 8 at 16, 17, 51, 60, 61. She also had high B-Type natriuretic
    peptide (“BNP”). Pet. Ex. 4 at 51. At times, she had low TSH and high hemoglobin A1C. Pet. Ex.
    4 at 33, 34, 42, 48; Pet. Ex. 6 at 45, 47, 49; Pet. Ex. 7 at 158, 160.
    By May 11, 2011, Dr. Villorani noted that Mrs. Halverson’s kidney function had declined
    and changed her diagnosis to stage IV chronic kidney disease. Pet. Ex. 4 at 37-38; Pet. Ex. 8 at 91-
    92. She also had uncontrolled anemia. 
    Id. She was
    referred for pre-dialysis education. 
    Id. By November
    of 2011, she was referred for dialysis training. Pet. Ex. 4 at 32.
    In April of 2012, Mrs. Halverson underwent pacemaker explant and replacement. Pet. Ex.
    4 at 27.
    Mrs. Halverson routinely presented for her follow-up visits. See generally Pet. Ex. 3; Pet.
    Ex. 4; Pet. Ex. 6; Pet. Ex. 7.
    On April 26, 2013, Mrs. Halverson presented to Dr. Arluck emergently with a four-week
    history of dyspnea on minimal exertion, non-productive cough, orthopnea, nocturnal dyspnea,
    chest aching, and two weeks of edema with increased abdominal girth. Pet. Ex. 6 at 5; Pet. Ex. 7
    1. She reported snoring and waking up exhausted. Pet. Ex. 6 at 7; Pet. Ex. 7 at 3. Her active medical
    problems included type I diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, congestive heart failure, renal
    injury secondary to diabetes, orthostatic hypotension, shortness of breath, paroxysmal ventricular
    tachycardia, and hypothyroidism. 
    Id. She was
    noted to have decompensated congestive heart
    12
    Non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, or NSVT, is an abnormally rapid ventricular rhythm that
    terminates spontaneously within 30 seconds and does not result in the heart’s failure to function.
    Nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, DORLAND’S at 1867; ventricular tachycardia, 
    id. at 1868.
                                                     7
    failure. 
    Id. Dr. Arluck
    ordered several tests, including an echocardiogram, chest x-ray, basic
    metabolic panel (“BMP”), BNP, and a nuclear stress test. 
    Id. Bloodwork from
    this appointment
    showed high glucose, BUN, creatinine, and BNP, and low eGFR, sodium, and chloride. Pet. Ex. 6
    at 43.
    An echocardiogram was performed on May 14, 2013 and showed the left ventricle had
    moderately to severely depressed systolic function and an estimated ejection fraction 13 of 25 to
    35%. Pet. Ex. 4 at 7; Pet. Ex. 6 at 78; Pet. Ex. 7 at 87, 150. Mrs. Halverson had abnormal left
    ventricular diastolic function with a restrictive pattern, suggesting elevated left ventricle diastolic
    pressure. 
    Id. Her right
    ventricle had normal systolic function but a pressure overload pattern. Pet.
    Ex. 4 at 8; Pet. Ex. 6 at 79; Pet. Ex. 7 at 88, 151. She had mild tricuspid regurgitation and abnormal
    septal motion, with right ventricular pacing, right bundle branch block, or right ventricular volume
    overload. 
    Id. On May
    17, 2013, Mrs. Halverson underwent Regadenoson Cardiolite Perfusion Imaging
    with Gating. Pet. Ex. 4 at 5-6; Pet. Ex. 6 at 82-83; Pet. Ex. 7 at 94-95, 148-49. She did not have
    ECG changes or pain with stress, but premature ventricular contractions were observed with
    exercise. 
    Id. She did
    not have any ischemia. 
    Id. Her left
    ventricular systolic function appeared to
    be moderately to severely depressed, and she had prominent right ventricular uptake. 
    Id. It was
    noted that accuracy of the measured ejection fraction is diminished in patients with ventricular
    paced rhythm. 
    Id. Blood work
    was performed on May 22, 2013, and showed low WBC, RBC, hemoglobin,
    hematocrit, MCHC, eGFR, sodium, and chloride, and high glucose, BUN, creatinine, and BNP.
    Pet. Ex. 8 at 13-14.
    At her May 28, 2013 visit with Dr. Arluck, Mrs. Halverson was noted to have
    decompensated congestive heart failure with continued weakness, fatigue, and dyspnea. Pet. Ex. 6
    at 9; Pet. Ex. 7 at 5. The potential for sudden cardiac death related to NSVT and decreased ejection
    fraction was discussed. Pet. Ex. 6 at 11-12; Pet. Ex. 7 at 7-8. Dr. Arluck noted that she was a
    candidate for an AICD and recommended a consultation with Dr. Bullinga regarding the
    replacement of her pacemaker. 
    Id. She was
    instructed to continue with a healthy diet and
    appropriate activity, to continue prescribed medications, and to monitor her renal function and
    electrolytes closely. 
    Id. In July
    of 2013, Mrs. Halverson continued to experience fatigue, dizziness, increased
    urination, numbness of feet, and shortness of breath when walking and lying down. Pet. Ex. 3 at
    15. She was not seeing an eye doctor yearly and was not taking her blood pressure medications as
    directed because of side effects; furosemide was decreased due to lightheadedness and low blood
    pressure readings. 
    Id. Blood work
    performed at that time showed low WBC, platelets, eGFR,
    13
    The ejection fraction is a measurement of the percentage of blood leaving the ventricle each time the
    heart contracts. It is usually only measured in the left ventricle. An ejection fraction of 55% or higher is
    considered normal; 50% or lower is considered reduced though experts vary and consider 50% borderline.
    Rekha Mankad, Ejection fraction: What does it measure?, MAYO CLINIC (July 2, 2019),
    https://www.mayoclinic.org/ejection-fraction/expert-answers/faq-20058286
    8
    sodium, and chloride, and high glucose, BUN, creatinine, BNP, and hemoglobin A1C. Pet. Ex. 6
    at 41-42; Pet. Ex. 7 at 161-62; Pet. Ex. 8 at 11-12.
    On July 30, 2013, Mrs. Halverson returned to Dr. Arluck for follow-up of congestive heart
    failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Pet. Ex. 6 at 14; Pet. Ex. 7 at 9. She reported that
    she had an appointment with Dr. Bullinga scheduled for August 7 for consideration of an AICD.
    
    Id. She had
    lost 24 pounds since presenting with congestive heart failure. Pet. Ex. 6 at 17; Pet. Ex.
    7 at 12. She would need a repeat assessment of her left ventricular systolic function, most likely
    by echocardiogram. 
    Id. Bloodwork, including
    a hepatic function panel, lipid panel, creatine kinase,
    and hemoglobin A1C, was ordered. Pet. Ex. 6 at 18; Pet. Ex. 7 at 12. Her creatine kinase and A1C
    were high and her HDL cholesterol was low. Pet. Ex. 4 at 17.
    On September 13, 2013, Mrs. Halverson presented to her nephrologist and reported that
    she had passed out at home. Pet. Ex. 8 at 2. It was determined to be related to an adjustment of her
    water medication. 
    Id. On September
    17, 2013, Mrs. Halverson presented to Dr. Sparagna for follow-up. Pet. Ex.
    3 at 8. She reported occasional shortness of breath and was scheduled to have a defibrillator placed
    “next week.” 
    Id. at 11.
    On September 30, 2013, Mrs. Halverson presented to Dr. Bullinga at Penn Presbyterian
    Medical Center for implantation of a permanent biventricular AICD. Pet. Ex. 6 at 24, 84; Pet. Ex.
    7 at 100. She was noted to have had an exacerbation of congestive heart failure in May of 2013, a
    left ventricle ejection fraction of 25%, shortness of breath upon walking half a block, and NSVT
    into the 180s. 
    Id. Her expected
    survival was greater than one year. Pet. Ex. 7 at 104. Blood work
    performed on October 22, 2013 showed low hemoglobin, hematocrit, MCH, MCHC, platelets,
    sodium, chloride, and eGFR, and high glucose, BUN, creatinine, BNP, and urine protein. Pet. Ex.
    6 at 39-40; Pet. Ex. 7 at 163-64.
    Petitioner testified that, after the implantation of the AICD, Mrs. Halverson’s health
    improved. “She was doing a lot better. She had a lot more energy and…she was even thinking
    more positively about her health. She was more active…. She wanted to go out more and go out
    to restaurants…where she was mostly staying at home before. She didn’t have the energy to do
    it.” Tr. 42. She was also able to walk more. Tr. 42.
    On November 8, 2013, Mrs. Halverson returned to Dr. Arluck for follow-up. Her
    pacemaker had been replaced with a biventricular AICD and she no longer had nocturnal dyspnea.
    Pet. Ex. 6 at 19; Pet. Ex. 7 at 14. She complained of shortness of breath when walking but attributed
    it to her unsteady gait and difficulty walking. 
    Id. She did
    not climb steps. 
    Id. She reported
    being
    given furosemide in the hospital, but got light headed, so she was only taking it when her weight
    was above 125 pounds. 
    Id. She had
    severe chronic renal failure. 
    Id. An electrocardiogram
    was
    performed; Mrs. Halverson was noted to have atrial and biventricular racing. Pet. Ex 4 at 4. She
    had not had any AICD discharges. Pet. Ex. 6 at 19.
    On November 15, 2013, a cardiovascular disease risk profile was performed. Pet. Ex. 4 at
    14-16. Her hemoglobin A1C and creatine kinase were high, and her HDL cholesterol was low. 
    Id. 9 at
    14-15; see also Pet. Ex. 3 at 5 (indicating that these lab results were discussed at a primary care
    appointment on January 9, 2014).
    On December 12, 2013, Mrs. Halverson had an echocardiogram, which showed an
    estimated left ventricle ejection fraction of 45 to 55%. Pet. Ex. 4 at 2; Pet. Ex. 6 at 89; Pet. Ex. 7
    at 96. Her left ventricular systolic function was most likely depressed but had markedly improved
    since the last study. 
    Id. She had
    stage III abnormal diastolic function compatible with elevated left
    ventricular filling pressure. Pet. Ex. 4 at 2-3; Pet. Ex. 6 at 89-90; Pet. Ex. 7 at 96-97. She also had
    mild tricuspid regurgitation. Pet. Ex. 4 at 3; Pet. Ex. 6 at 90; Pet. Ex. 7 at 97.
    Petitioner accompanied Mrs. Halverson to this appointment with Dr. Arluck on December
    12, 2013. Tr. 19, 45. According to petitioner, Dr. Arluck “tweaked” the AICD and said that it
    needed a little adjustment, but that Mrs. Halverson was “doing fine.” Tr. 45. Petitioner stated that
    Dr. Arluck “was one of the best pacemaker doctors in the country for that defibrillator pacemaker”
    and had written 11 books on the subject. Tr. 45-46. Petitioner testified that, at this time, Mrs.
    Halverson was upbeat and strong. Tr. 9, 46.
    Petitioner recounted that on January 7 and 8, Mrs. Halverson “started to get a cough and
    started sneezing with congestion,” which he described as a “slight cold.” Tr. 8, 47. Petitioner did
    not recall having similar symptoms. Tr. 24. “I don’t think so, but if I did, it wasn’t very severe, to
    me.” Tr. 24. Petitioner did not recall Mrs. Halverson being fatigued or having shortness of breath.
    Tr. 25-26. He recalled that they were talking about taking a trip. Tr. 26.
    On January 9, 2014, Mrs. Halverson presented to Dr. Sparagna for a sick visit for nasal
    congestion, a loose but non-productive cough, “clogged” ears, and a scratchy throat for three days.
    Pet. Ex. 3 at 5. She also complained of numbness in her feet, fatigue, and occasional shortness of
    breath. 
    Id. She reported
    difficulty hearing but no ear pain. 
    Id. She walked
    with a cane for balance.
    
    Id. Upon exam,
    her heart rate was “regularly irregular” but she did not have difficulty breathing or
    shortness of breath. 
    Id. She was
    noted to have hyperlipidemia, hypertension, type II diabetes,
    complete atrioventricular block, chronic ischemic heart disease, and an upper respiratory infection.
    
    Id. at 5,
    7. Dr. Sparagna recommended Mucinex, saline nasal spray, and Tylenol or Advil. 
    Id. at 7.
    She was administered Fluzone on that day. 
    Id. at 2.
    Petitioner recalled Mrs. Halverson receiving a flu shot during the appointment with Dr.
    Sparagna on January 9, 2014 and a prescription for her nasal congestion. Tr. 9, 10. Petitioner noted
    that Mrs. Halverson had diabetic neuropathy in her feet and “wasn’t sure of herself walking up and
    down steps…or on uneven pavement, so she used the cane for balance” but “[s]he very rarely used
    the cane in the house.” Tr. 25-26. He recalled after the doctor’s appointment going together to Rite
    Aid to fill the prescription. Tr. 26. Mrs. Halverson did not have any difficulty walking around the
    drug store. Tr. 26.
    According to the medical records, Mrs. Halverson received a tetanus-diphtheria vaccine in
    2004; a diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccine on April 27, 2011; a pneumococcal vaccine
    on October 15, 2011; and a seasonal influenza preservative-free vaccine on October 9, 2012,
    without event. Pet. Ex. 3 at 9. January 9, 2014 was the first time Mrs. Halverson received Fluzone,
    the high-dose flu vaccine.
    10
    B.     Mrs. Halverson’s Health After Receiving the Fluzone
    According to petitioner, Mrs. Halverson experienced “rapid degeneration” following the
    Fluzone vaccination. Tr. 11. About an hour after they ate dinner the night of the vaccination, Mrs.
    Halverson began vomiting and “continued to vomit every couple of hours.” Tr. 11. She barely
    slept “because she kept throwing up, and she had a tremendous cough because of it…” Tr. 11.
    Petitioner recalled Mrs. Halverson coughing throughout the night and into the next
    morning, January 10. Tr. 11. She had dry heaves. Tr. 28. She also started to lose her voice and her
    hearing. Tr. 12. She told him that her arms were numb and tingling. Tr. 12. She described it “like
    when your foot goes to sleep.” Tr. 19. Tr. She had less than half of her normal energy. Tr. 12. She
    had to use a cane in the house when she normally only used it when she left the house. Tr. 12. He
    had to make sure that she could walk to the bathroom. Tr. 12-13.
    According to petitioner, over the next several days, Mrs. Halverson continued to
    deteriorate. By Monday, January 13, she was “sitting there in a zombie-like state on the couch.”
    Tr. 14, 18. She asked petitioner to lower a window shade that was about two feet away from the
    couch, where she was sitting. Tr. 14. Petitioner told her that if she could not lower the window
    shade in ten minutes, he would call an ambulance to take her to the hospital. Tr. 14. It took her the
    full ten minutes to stand up from the chair and lower the shade. Tr. 14-15. Petitioner asked her to
    go to the hospital or the doctor, but she resisted. Tr. 15. Finally, around 7:00 pm that night, she
    agreed that he could take her to the hospital. Tr. 15. She needed to go to the bathroom, but she
    could not walk, so petitioner carried her to the bathroom. Tr. 15-16. While she was in the bathroom,
    petitioner called Mrs. Halverson’s sister, Linda, to ask her advice. Linda agreed that Mrs.
    Halverson needed to go to the hospital. Tr. 16. Petitioner recalled that, while he was on the phone,
    his wife called to him and then collapsed. He called 911. He was a volunteer fireman and trained
    in CPR, so he began performing CPR on Mrs. Halverson. The paramedics arrived and performed
    CPR and “shocked” her. Tr. 16; Pet. Ex. 9 at 20-21. According to petitioner, the paramedics were
    there for over an hour. Tr. 16. “[T]hey said they didn’t revive her…but they cannot (sic) pronounce
    her dead, so they took her to the hospital.” Tr. 16.
    Mrs. Halverson arrived at Shore Medical Center in cardiorespiratory arrest. Pet. Ex. 9 at
    16. Petitioner reported to hospital personnel that Mrs. Halverson had been ill for the “past few
    days” with an upper respiratory infection, malaise, weakness, decreased intake, cough, shortness
    of breath, nausea, vomiting, “retching,” and congestion; she had an internal defibrillator. 
    Id. at 16-
    17. She had “finally” agreed to go to the hospital and went to change her clothes first. 
    Id. He called
    911 and found her in the bathroom slumped over on the toilet. 
    Id. He laid
    her on the floor and
    started CPR. 
    Id. He reported
    that she had complained of shortness of breath before she collapsed.
    
    Id. The hospital
    notes show that BLS (Basic Life Support) arrived and shocked Mrs. Halverson
    twice with an AED (automated external defibrillator), then medics arrived and shocked her an
    additional two times, while CPR continued with attempted failed intubation. Pet. Ex. 9 at 16. BVM
    (bag valve mask) was used to oxygenate. 
    Id. During transport,
    she was shocked twice by medics
    and given IV epinephrine. 
    Id. Upon arrival
    at the hospital, Mrs. Halverson had pacer spikes without
    a pulse; pacer spikes ceased with magnet placement. 
    Id. Mrs. Halverson
    was intubated. 
    Id. There 11
    was no response to medical therapy. 
    Id. at 17.
    Mrs. Halverson was shocked multiple times in the
    emergency room without success. 
    Id. She was
    pronounced deceased at 11:14 pm. 
    Id. The immediate
    cause of death was cardiac arrest due to ischemic heart disease. Pet. Ex. 2
    at 1. Other significant conditions contributing to death were diabetes myelitis, hyperlipidemia,
    arrhythmia and hypertension. 
    Id. An autopsy
    was not performed. 
    Id. A note
    by Dr. Sparagna dated January 14, 2014, stated that he spoke with petitioner, who
    informed him that Mrs. Halverson had been ill and unable to breathe well for a few hours
    “yesterday.” Pet. Ex. 4 at 62. Dr. Sparagna noted that petitioner told him, “Her defibrillator
    warning system did not go off. She suddenly fell to the floor, dead.” 
    Id. At hearing,
    petitioner recalled that, after Mrs. Halverson’s death, Dr. Sparagna called him
    and asked what happened. Tr. 40. Petitioner testified that he did not tell Dr. Sparagna that Mrs.
    Halverson’s defibrillator warning system did not go off or make any statements about Mrs.
    Halverson’s pacemaker and did not know whether or not her pacemaker fired. Tr. 17, 40-41.
    Petitioner stated that he did not know how the AICD worked and he would not know what it would
    look like if it did not go off. Tr. 41. He testified that he never saw the AICD “shock” Mrs.
    Halverson. Tr. 34.
    IV.     The Experts
    A.     Petitioner’s Experts
    1.      Robert Stark, M.D.
    Dr. Stark received his M.D. from Harvard Medical School, where he graduated with
    honors. Pet. Ex. 21 at 1. While at Harvard, he carried out a four-year research project in the
    Genetics Unit which focused on metabolic disorders and mutations in human cells in culture. Pet.
    Ex. 20 at 2. He then served as a clinical associate, a cardiology fellow, and the chief resident at the
    National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute at the National Institutes of Health (“NIH”). Pet. Ex. 21
    at 1. At the NIH, Dr. Stark carried out parallel biochemical and cellular studies investigating
    cholesterol metabolism and biochemical risk factors for heart attack. Pet. Ex. 20 at 2. He is board
    certified in internal medicine and cardiovascular disease. Pet. Ex. 21 at 2. Dr. Stark was a clinical
    cardiologist and internist at Greenwich Hospital, where he chaired the Cardiopulmonary
    Resuscitation Committee. 
    Id. at 3;
    Pet. Ex. 20 at 2. He currently teaches preventive cardiology at
    the New York Medical College; he estimated that he spends five to ten percent of his time teaching.
    Tr. 76. He also has a private clinical practice. Tr. 104.
    2.      Gourang Patel, Pharm.D
    Dr. Patel is a clinical pharmacist in the areas of pharmacy and pharmacology/toxicology at
    RUSH University Medical Center (RUSH), where he also has teaching appointments in several
    departments, including Pharmacy, Pharmacology, Anesthesiology, and Pulmonary and Critical
    Medicine. Pet. Ex. 22 at 1. He works with a clinical care team which includes the attending
    physician, resident, intern, and nurse to put together the patient’s drug therapy plan, focusing on
    12
    maximizing benefits to the patient and minimizing side effects. Tr. 64. Dr. Patel is familiar with
    flu vaccine preparations and the pharmacology/toxicology of the flu vaccine, including its effect
    on the cardiovascular system and subsequent sequelae. Pet. Ex. 22 at 1.
    B.     Respondent’s Experts
    1.      Joseph Murphy, M.D.
    Dr. Joseph Murphy received his medical degree from University College Cork in Ireland.
    Resp. Ex. B at 2. He completed a year-long research fellowship in cellular cardiology at Harvard
    Medical School, followed by additional fellowships in clinical cardiology and invasive cardiology
    at the Mayo Clinic. 
    Id. Dr. Murphy
    has been in full-time clinical practice as an attending
    cardiologist at the Mayo Clinic since 1990. Id.; Tr. 146. He is board certified in internal medicine,
    cardiology, transplant cardiology, and advanced heart failure. Resp. Ex. B at 3; Tr. 146. Dr.
    Murphy’s interests include critical care cardiology, pulmonary hypertension, and valvular heart
    disease. Resp. Ex. A at 2. Dr. Murphy estimated that 50 percent of his patients have advanced heart
    failure due to a variety of conditions. Tr. 148. He sends two or three patients per week to have
    AICDs placed. Tr. 148. He published an article on vaccine-associated myocarditis after treating
    Army members who had cardiac complications following receipt of a smallpox vaccine. Tr. 150-
    51.
    2.      Noel Rose, M.D., Ph.D.
    Dr. Rose is a Professor Emeritus at Johns Hopkins University, with appointments in the
    departments of Pathology and Medicine, Microbiology and Immunology, and Environmental
    Health Sciences. Resp. Ex. D at 1; Resp. Ex. E at 1. He was the founding director of the Johns
    Hopkins Center for Autoimmune Disease Research and is the former director of the Division of
    Immunology in the Department of Pathology and former Chairman in the Department of
    Immunology and Infectious Diseases. 
    Id. He is
    presently a senior lecturer in the Department of
    Pathology at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. 
    Id. Dr. Rose
    is board certified in clinical pathology,
    microbiology, and laboratory immunology. Tr. 237-38. His practice does not involve treating
    patients. Tr. 243. Dr. Rose’s published works include the Manual of Clinical Immunology, a
    textbook of immunology applied to medical practice. Tr. 234. He is also a co-editor of the textbook
    The Autoimmune Disease. Tr. 234-35.
    V.     Legal Framework
    The Vaccine Act provides two avenues for petitioners to receive compensation. First, a
    petitioner may demonstrate a “Table” injury—i.e., an injury listed on the Vaccine Injury Table
    that occurred within the provided time period. § 11(c)(1)(C)(i). “In such a case, causation is
    presumed.” Capizzano v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    440 F.3d 1317
    , 1320 (Fed. Cir. 2006);
    see § 13(a)(1)(B). Second, where the alleged injury is not listed on the Vaccine Injury Table, a
    petitioner may demonstrate an “off-Table” injury, which requires that the petitioner “prove by a
    preponderance of the evidence that the vaccine at issue caused the injury.” 
    Capizzano, 440 F.3d at 1320
    ; see § 11(c)(1)(C)(ii). Initially, a petitioner must provide evidence that he or she suffered, or
    continues to suffer, from a definitive injury. Broekelschen v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 618
    
    13 F.3d 1339
    , 1346 (Fed. Cir. 2010). A petitioner need not show that the vaccination was the sole
    cause, or even the predominant cause, of the alleged injury; showing that the vaccination was a
    “substantial factor” and a “but for” cause of the injury is sufficient for recovery. See Pafford v.
    Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    451 F.3d 1352
    , 1355 (Fed. Cir. 2006); Shyface v. Sec’y of Health
    & Human Servs., 
    165 F.3d 1344
    , 1352 (Fed. Cir. 1999).14
    To prove causation for an “off-Table” injury, petitioners must satisfy the three-pronged test
    established in Althen v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    418 F.3d 1274
    (Fed. Cir. 2005). Althen
    requires that petitioners show by preponderant evidence that a vaccination petitioner received
    caused his or her injury “by providing: (1) a medical theory causally connecting the vaccination
    and the injury; (2) a logical sequence of cause and effect showing that the vaccination was the
    reason for the injury; and (3) a showing of a proximate temporal relationship between vaccination
    and injury.” 
    Id. at 1278.
    Together, these prongs must show “that the vaccine was ‘not only a but-
    for cause of the injury but also a substantial factor in bringing about the injury.’” Stone v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    676 F.3d 1373
    , 1379 (Fed. Cir. 2012) (quoting 
    Shyface, 165 F.3d at 1352
    -
    53). Causation is determined on a case-by-case basis, with “no hard and fast per se scientific or
    medical rules.” Knudsen v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    35 F.3d 543
    , 548 (Fed. Cir. 1994).
    Petitioners are not required to identify “specific biological mechanisms” to establish causation,
    nor are they required to present “epidemiologic studies, rechallenge, the presence of pathological
    markers or genetic disposition, or general acceptance in the scientific or medical communities.”
    
    Capizzano, 440 F.3d at 1325
    (quoting 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1280
    ). “[C]lose calls regarding causation
    are resolved in favor of injured claimants.” 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1280
    .
    Each of the Althen prongs requires a different showing. Under the first Althen prong,
    petitioner must provide a “reputable medical theory” demonstrating that the vaccine received can
    cause the type of injury alleged. 
    Pafford, 451 F.3d at 1355-56
    (citation omitted). To satisfy this
    prong, petitioner’s “theory of causation must be supported by a ‘reputable medical or scientific
    explanation.’” Andreu ex rel. Andreu v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    569 F.3d 1367
    , 1379
    (Fed. Cir. 2009) (quoting 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1278
    ). This theory need only be “legally probable,
    not medically or scientifically certain.” 
    Id. at 1380
    (emphasis omitted) (quoting 
    Knudsen, 35 F.3d at 548
    ). Nevertheless, “petitioners [must] proffer trustworthy testimony from experts who can find
    support for their theories in medical literature.” LaLonde v. Secretary of Health & Human Servs.,
    
    746 F.3d 1334
    , 1341 (Fed. Cir. 2014).
    The second Althen prong requires proof of a “logical sequence of cause and effect.”
    
    Capizzano, 440 F.3d at 1326
    (quoting 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1278
    ). Even if the vaccination can cause
    the injury, petitioner must show “that it did so in [this] particular case.” Hodges v. Sec’y of Health
    & Human Servs., 
    9 F.3d 958
    , 962 n.4 (Fed. Cir. 1993) (citation omitted). “A reputable medical or
    scientific explanation must support this logical sequence of cause and effect,” 
    id. at 961
    (citation
    omitted), and “treating physicians are likely to be in the best position to determine whether a
    logical sequence of cause and effect show[s] that the vaccination was the reason for the injury,”
    14
    The Vaccine Act also requires petitioners to show by preponderant evidence the vaccinee suffered from
    the “residual effects or complications” of the alleged vaccine-related injury for more than six months, died
    from the alleged vaccine-related injury, or required inpatient hospitalization and surgical intervention as a
    result of the alleged vaccine-related injury. § 11(c)(1)(D). It is undisputed that this requirement is satisfied
    in this case.
    14
    Paluck v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    786 F.3d 1373
    , 1385 (Fed. Cir. 2015) (quoting 
    Andreu, 569 F.3d at 1375
    ).
    The third Althen prong requires that petitioner establish a “proximate temporal
    relationship” between the vaccination and the alleged injury. 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1281
    . This
    “requires preponderant proof that the onset of symptoms occurred within a timeframe for which,
    given the medical understanding of the disorder’s etiology, it is medically acceptable to infer
    causation-in-fact.” De Bazan v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    539 F.3d 1347
    , 1352 (Fed. Cir.
    2008). Typically, “a petitioner’s failure to satisfy the proximate temporal relationship prong is due
    to the fact that onset was too late after the administration of a vaccine for the vaccine to be the
    cause.” 
    Id. However, “cases
    in which onset is too soon” also fail this prong; “in either case, the
    temporal relationship is not such that it is medically acceptable to conclude that the vaccination
    and the injury are causally linked.” Id.; see also Locane v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    685 F.3d 1375
    , 1381 (Fed. Cir. 2012) (“[If] the illness was present before the vaccine was administered,
    logically, the vaccine could not have caused the illness.”).
    A petitioner may also be eligible for compensation if the vaccinee had a preexisting
    condition which was significantly aggravated by a vaccine. See § 11(c)(1)(C). In considering a
    significant aggravation claim for an on-Table injury, the Federal Circuit placed the most
    significance on whether petitioner’s symptoms began within the time period proscribed.
    Whitecotton v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    81 F.3d 1099
    , 1107 (Fed. Cir. 1996) (“Instead of
    asking whether the person's symptoms would have occurred absent the vaccine, our test hoves
    close to the statutory mandate, and relieves a petitioner of the burden of proving causation if she
    can show that the first symptom or manifestation of the significant aggravation of her condition
    occurred within the table time period provided in the statute.”).
    For a significant aggravation claim for an off-Table injury, the petitioner’s burden is
    expanded to six elements, requiring petitioner to show, by preponderant evidence, proof of
    (1) the person’s condition prior to administration of the vaccine, (2) the person’s
    current condition (or the condition following the vaccination if that is also
    pertinent), (3) whether the person’s current condition constitutes a “significant
    aggravation” of the person’s condition prior to vaccination, (4) a medical theory
    causally connecting such a significantly worsened condition to the vaccination, (5)
    a logical sequence of cause and effect showing that the vaccination was the reason
    for the significant aggravation, and (6) a showing of a proximate temporal
    relationship between the vaccination and the significant aggravation.
    Loving ex rel. Loving v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    86 Fed. Cl. 135
    , 144 (2009). The fourth,
    fifth, and sixth factors are derived from Althen prongs one, two, and three, respectively. 
    Id. The Federal
    Circuit has agreed with this approach. See W.C. v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    704 F.3d 1352
    , 1357 (Fed. Cir. 2013) (“We hold that the Loving case provides the correct framework
    for evaluating off-table significant aggravation claims.”)
    However, the third Loving factor, determining whether the person suffered a “significant
    aggravation” of his or her condition, leads to the question of what constitutes a significant
    15
    aggravation. Based on the legislative history and the language of the statute, it appears that
    Congress intended for a “significant aggravation” of a condition to present rather dramatically. See
    H.R. Rep. 908, 99th Cong.2d Sess. 1, reprinted in 1986 USCCAN 6287, 6356 (“This [significant
    aggravation] provision does not include compensation for conditions which might legitimately be
    described as preexisting (e.g., a child with monthly seizures who, after vaccination, has seizures
    every three and a half weeks), but is meant to encompass serious deterioration (e.g., a child with
    monthly seizures who, after vaccination, has seizures on a daily basis” (emphasis added)); see also
    42 U.S.C. § 300aa-33(4) (“The term “significant aggravation” means any change for the worse in
    a preexisting condition which results in markedly greater disability, pain, or illness accompanied
    by substantial deterioration of health” (emphases added)).
    Once a petitioner has established that his or her condition worsened post-vaccination, the
    special master must determine “whether the change for the worse in [petitioner’s] clinical
    presentation was aggravation or a natural progression” of the preexisting condition. Hennessey,
    
    2009 WL 1709053
    at *42. In doing so, special masters have relied on evidence supporting the
    “typical” clinical course of the petitioner’s condition. See, e.g., 
    Locane, 685 F.3d at 1381-82
    (Special master’s determination that petitioner’s Crohn’s disease was not significantly aggravated
    by her hepatitis B vaccinations where her disease flare-ups after her first and third vaccinations
    were typical of frequent flares in adolescents’ expected course of Crohn’s disease was reasonable);
    Faoro v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 10-704V, 
    2016 WL 675491
    , at *27 (Fed. Cl. Spec.
    Mstr. Jan. 29, 2016), mot. for review denied, 
    128 Fed. Cl. 61
    (Fed. Cl. Apr. 11, 2016) (finding that
    “the vaccinations would not have changed her clinical course and thus, the vaccinations did not
    significantly aggravate her preexisting condition”).
    The process for making factual determinations in Vaccine Program cases begins with
    analyzing the medical records, which are required to be filed with the petition. § 11(c)(2). Medical
    records created contemporaneously with the events they describe are presumed to be accurate and
    “complete” such that they present all relevant information on a patient’s health problems. Cucuras
    v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    993 F.2d 1525
    , 1528 (Fed. Cir. 1993). In making
    contemporaneous reports, “accuracy has an extra premium” given that the “proper treatment
    hang[s] in the balance.” 
    Id. Contemporaneous medical
    records that are clear, consistent, and
    complete warrant substantial weight “as trustworthy evidence.” 
    Id. Indeed, “where
    later testimony
    conflicts with earlier contemporaneous documents, courts generally give the contemporaneous
    documentation more weight.” Campbell ex rel. Campbell v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    69 Fed. Cl. 775
    , 779 (2006); see United States v. U.S. Gypsum Co., 
    333 U.S. 364
    , 396 (1948). But
    petitioners can support their claim with oral testimony if it is credible and consistent with the
    medical records. See, e.g., Stevenson ex rel. Stevenson v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 90-
    2127V, 
    1994 WL 808592
    , at *7 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. June 27, 1994) (crediting the testimony of a
    fact witness whose “memory was sound” and “recollections were consistent with the other factual
    evidence”). In short, “the record as a whole” must be considered. § 13(a).
    Furthermore, establishing a sound and reliable medical theory connecting the vaccine to
    the injury often requires a petitioner to present expert testimony in support of his or her claim.
    Lampe v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    219 F.3d 1357
    , 1361 (Fed. Cir. 2000). The Supreme
    Court’s opinion in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 
    509 U.S. 579
    (1993), requires
    that courts determine the reliability of an expert opinion before it may be considered as evidence.
    16
    “In short, the requirement that an expert’s testimony pertain to ‘scientific knowledge’ establishes
    a standard of evidentiary reliability.” 
    Id. at 590
    (citation omitted). Thus, for Vaccine Act claims, a
    “special master is entitled to require some indicia of reliability to support the assertion of the expert
    witness.” Moberly ex rel. Moberly v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    592 F.3d 1315
    , 1324 (Fed.
    Cir. 2010). The Daubert factors are used in the weighing of the reliability of scientific evidence
    proffered. Davis v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    94 Fed. Cl. 53
    , 66-67 (2010) (“uniquely in
    this Circuit, the Daubert factors have been employed also as an acceptable evidentiary-gauging
    tool with respect to persuasiveness of expert testimony already admitted”). Where both sides offer
    expert testimony, a special master’s decision may be “based on the credibility of the experts and
    the relative persuasiveness of their competing theories.” Broekelschen v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    618 F.3d 1339
    , 1347 (Fed. Cir. 2010) (citing 
    Lampe, 219 F.3d at 1362
    ). And nothing
    requires the acceptance of an expert’s conclusion “connected to existing data only by the ipse dixit
    of the expert,” especially if “there is simply too great an analytical gap between the data and the
    opinion proffered.” Snyder ex rel. Snyder v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    88 Fed. Cl. 706
    , 743
    (2009) (quoting Gen. Elec. Co. v. Joiner, 
    522 U.S. 136
    , 146 (1997)).
    Finally, although this decision discusses much but not all of the literature in detail, the
    undersigned reviewed and considered all of the medical records and literature submitted in this
    matter. See Moriarty ex rel. Moriarty v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    844 F.3d 1322
    , 1328
    (Fed. Cir. 2016) (“We generally presume that a special master considered the relevant record
    evidence even though [s]he does not explicitly reference such evidence in h[er] decision.”);
    Simanski v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    115 Fed. Cl. 407
    , 436 (2014) (“[A] Special Master
    is ‘not required to discuss every piece of evidence or testimony in her decision.’” (citation
    omitted)), aff’d, 601 F. App’x 982 (Fed. Cir. 2015).
    VI.     Discussion
    Because petitioner does not allege an injury listed on the Vaccine Injury Table, his claim
    is classified as “off-Table.” As noted above, for petitioner to prevail on an “off-Table” claim, he
    must show by preponderant evidence that the influenza vaccine at issue either caused Mrs.
    Halverson’s cardiac arrest and subsequent death or significantly aggravated her preexisting
    ischemic heart disease. 
    Capizzano, 440 F.3d at 1320
    . Doing so shifts the burden to respondent to
    show that Mrs. Halverson’s injuries and death were caused by factors unrelated to the vaccination.
    
    Deribeaux, 717 F.3d at 1367
    .
    Due to the requirement to prove causation, one special master has recommended evaluating
    “the last three Loving factors first.” Hennessey v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 01–190V,
    
    2009 WL 1709053
    , at *42 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. May 29, 2009), motion for review denied, 41 Fed.
    Cl. 126 (2010).
    A.      Althen Prong 1/Loving Factor 4: Reputable Medical Theory
    Petitioner’s experts opined that Fluzone can cause a systemic inflammatory response,
    sometimes referred to as “systemic inflammatory response syndrome,” or “SIRS.” Dr. Stark
    explained that SIRS can cause a variety of cardiac complications, including sudden cardiac death
    and myocardial infarction. See Pet. Ex. 18 at 3.
    17
    1. Fluzone can cause a systemic inflammatory response
    According to Dr. Stark, Fluzone15 is an immunologically enhanced alternative to the
    conventional flu vaccine and confers greater protection against infection than the conventional
    vaccine. Pet. Ex. 18 at 1. He emphasized that Fluzone is “a highly immunogenic flu vaccine that
    triggers an enhanced antibody response and systemic inflammation.” Pet. Ex. 19 at 3. “This
    vaccine is deliberately enhanced to form more antibodies, [and] more immune response . . .”. Tr.
    91. As a result, Fluzone induces a greater immune response than the regular flu vaccine. Pet. Ex.
    18 at 4. Dr. Patel added that Fluzone contains three strains of three different types of viruses. Tr.
    52. Both Dr. Stark and Dr. Patel added that Fluzone contains four times more antigen than the
    regular seasonal flu vaccine. Tr. 53; Pet. Ex. 18 at 4. According to Dr. Patel, if a person who had
    symptoms of an upper respiratory infection (“URI”) received Fluzone, the effects of the vaccine
    would be magnified, because the immune system would already be activated by the URI. Tr. 58.
    Respondent’s experts agreed that Fluzone is a powerful vaccine. Dr. Murphy stated that
    the influenza A vaccine “excites a strong immune reaction as it is designed to do, with spillover
    effects on many biological systems and functions that can be clearly demonstrated on laboratory
    testing.” Resp. Ex. A at 23. Dr. Rose explained that flu vaccines contain a purified protein called
    hemagglutinin, which causes agglutination, or clumping, of red blood cells. Tr. 255; Resp. Ex. D
    at 2. Fluzone contains four times the usual amount of hemagglutinin found in the standard seasonal
    flu vaccine. Resp. Ex. D at 2; Tr. 257. Dr. Rose noted that, in a study of 30,000 patients who
    randomly receive either the high-dose or standard-dose flu vaccine, “[a]ntibody levels to the
    influenza hemagglutinin were significantly higher in the high dose group.” Resp. Ex. D at 3; Resp.
    Ex. D, Tab 3.16
    Petitioner’s experts opined that patients are more likely to develop adverse events in
    response to Fluzone than the standard-dose flu vaccine. Dr. Stark stated that the CDC has reported
    a higher rate of adverse events in Fluzone recipients when compared with patients receiving the
    conventional flu vaccine. Pet. Ex. 17 at 2; Pet. Ex. 18 at 4.17 According to Dr. Stark, cardiac
    disorders and infections are the most frequent types of serious adverse events reported. Pet. Ex. 18
    at 4. Dr. Patel noted that a higher rate of generalized weakness is reported by patients who receive
    Fluzone than patients who receive a regular flu vaccination. Pet. Ex. 22 at 2.
    Both of petitioner’s experts cited statistics on adverse events following Fluzone. Dr. Stark
    noted that about 30% of patients develop an immune/hypersensitivity reaction at the injection site
    within three days of immunization, while 8 to 10% of patients develop systemic reactions,
    15
    Dr. Murphy explained that elderly patients have diminished immune responses when compared to
    younger patients. Resp. Ex. O at 3. Fluzone, a more potent vaccine, is given to combat this effect. 
    Id. 16 Carlos
    A. Diaz Granados, et al., Efficacy of High-Dose versus Standard-Dose Influenza Vaccine in Older
    Adults, 371 N. ENGL. J. MED. 7: 635-45 (2014), filed as “Pet. Ex. 11,” “Pet. Ex. 30,” and “Resp. Ex. D, Tab
    3.”
    17
    As a reference for this statement, Dr. Stark cited “Centers for Disease Control “Fluzone-High Dose
    Influenza Vaccine” 8/19/15.” See Pet. Ex. 18 at 5. This reference was not filed as an exhibit.
    18
    including myalgias, malaise, fever, and headache in response to the vaccine. Pet. Ex. 18 at 2. Dr.
    Stark also referenced literature showing that the flu vaccine can cause the production of
    inflammatory substances measurable in the blood stream, such as cytokines, including tumor
    necrosis factor (“TNF”), and migration-inhibitory factor (“MIF”). Pet. Ex. 20 at 2; Resp. Ex. D,
    Tab 13.18 “It is well recognized that inflammatory products lead to increased platelet aggregation
    and blood clotting.” Pet. Ex. 20 at 2. According to Dr. Patel, up to 30% of patients develop an
    immune phenomenon which can trigger a host of responses, including increased coagulation and
    systemic/local vessel spasm, collectively referred to as systemic inflammatory response syndrome
    (“SIRS”). Pet. Ex. 22 at 2. According to Dr. Patel, SIRS presents as “a whole body malaise,
    deterioration and fatigue…” and usually has an identifiable trigger. Tr. 72.
    2. A systemic inflammatory response affects cardiac function
    Dr. Stark explained that the systemic inflammatory response triggered by Fluzone can
    cause an increase in platelet aggregation, which can lead to coronary obstruction or heart attack
    and result in cardiac arrest. The inflammatory response can also increase cardiac autonomic
    function, which can lead to cardiac arrythmias.
    Drs. Stark and Patel opined that Fluzone can trigger a systemic inflammatory response
    which increases platelet aggregation, thereby increasing blood clotting. See Pet. Ex. 18 at 2; Pet.
    Ex. 19 at 3; Pet. Ex. 22 at 4. Dr. Patel added that a systemic inflammatory reaction will also cause
    increased blood pressure and heart rate; the increased clotting and systemic and local vessel spasms
    caused by SIRS can lead to a significant imbalance in oxygen demand and supply to the heart. Pet.
    Ex. 22 at 2, 4. The lack of oxygen ultimately leads to myocardial ischemia and myocardial
    infarction, which can trigger cardiac arrest. 
    Id. According to
    Dr. Stark, inflammation, allergic reaction, or infection can cause white blood
    cells to generate substances which cause platelets to become stickier; the platelets become more
    likely to clump and cause blockages. Tr. 90. Platelet activation has a prothrombotic effect that
    increases the risk of coronary obstruction and myocardial infarction in patients with underlying
    coronary artery disease. Pet. Ex. 18 at 2-3. A systemic inflammatory response can also trigger
    cardiac autonomic dysfunction by increasing heart rate and elevating contractility. 
    Id. at 2;
    Pet.
    Ex. 19 at 2. Cardiac autonomic dysfunction predisposes individuals to potentially fatal ventricular
    arrhythmias, particularly if the coronary arteries are already compromised. Pet. Ex. 18 at 2-3. Dr.
    Stark explained that an increased immune response can affect the balance between two nerves that
    regulate the heartbeat. Tr. 91-92. “The vagus nerve makes the heart beat slower, and relax a little
    bit, [and] the sympathetic nerve makes the heart beat faster and harder.” Tr. 92. “When you get an
    immunization, and you induce an immune response, the balance between vagal stimuli slowing
    the heart and sympathetic stimuli speeding up the heart, that balance is thrown off and that’s not
    good for you if your heart is already impaired in any way.” Tr. 92.
    To support his theory, Dr. Stark offered the Lanza paper, which found, “Together with an
    inflammatory reaction, influenza A vaccine induced platelet activation and sympathovagal
    imbalance…suggesting a pathophysiological link between inflammation and cardiac autonomic
    18
    Lisa M. Christian et al., Proinflammatory cytokine responses correspond with subjective side effects after
    influenza virus vaccination, 33 VACCINE 3360-66 (2015), filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 13.”
    19
    regulation. The vaccine-related platelet activation and cardiac autonomic dysfunction may
    transiently increase the risk of cardiovascular events.” Pet. Ex. 10 at 1; Pet. Ex. 28 at 1.19 This was
    a smaller study and the authors did not conclude that there is a direct causal relationship between
    inflammatory stimulus and platelet activation. However, the study did find a correlation between
    influenza vaccination and cardiac autonomic imbalance which warranted further investigation.
    Similarly, a study by Willerson and Ridker found that “[e]pidemiological and clinical studies have
    shown strong and consistent relationships between markers of inflammation and risk of future
    cardiovascular events.” Pet. Ex. 33 at 1.20
    Dr. Patel explained that platelets have a role in the immune system, engulfing antigens in
    the body, whether the antigens are bacteria or vaccines. Tr. 58. When a vaccine is introduced to
    the body, the platelets aggregate around the antigen, causing clumping. Tr. 58. Dr. Patel offered
    four studies analyzing adverse cardiac events following flu vaccine. A 2012 study by Moro found
    that, between July 2010 and December 2010, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System
    (“VAERS”) received 606 reports of people 65 years and older who experienced adverse events
    after receiving a high-dose influenza vaccine. Pet. Ex. 12 at 1.21 Of 51 reports considered serious
    events, nine (18%) were cardiac events; all nine patients had preexisting cardiac conditions. 
    Id. at 3.
    In contrast, cardiac events were only 5% of serious events occurring after a standard-dose
    influenza vaccine. 
    Id. The authors
    concluded that adverse event reporting for cardiac events may
    be “unexpectedly higher” after receipt of the high-dose flu vaccine than the standard-dose flu
    vaccine. 
    Id. at 5.
    In 2013, Moro issued another study of patients who received an intradermal flu vaccine;
    three out of the nine serious events were cardiac events. See Pet. Ex. 14 at 2-3.22 The only fatal
    event was an 88-year-old woman who had sudden cardiac death 16 days after vaccination. 
    Id. at 3.
    Additionally, Haber studied adults 18 to 49 years old who received the standard-dose
    trivalent flu vaccine between 2005 and 2013; of 107 serious events, 14 patients (13.6%)
    experienced cardiac adverse events, including myocardial infarction and arrhythmias. Pet. Ex. 13
    19
    Gaetano A. Lanza et al., Inflammation-related effects of adjuvant influenza A vaccination on platelet
    activation and cardiac autonomic function, 269 J. INTERN. MED. 118-25 (2011), filed as “Pet. Ex. 10” and
    “Pet. Ex. 28.”
    20
    James T. Willerson and Paul M. Ridker, Inflammation as a Cardiovascular Risk Factor, 109
    CIRCULATION 21: 2-10 (2004), filed as “Pet. Ex. 33.”
    21
    Pedro L. Moro et al., Postlicensure Safety Surveillance for High-Dose Trivalent Inactivated Influenza
    Vaccine in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, 1 July 2010-31 December 2010, 54 CLIN. INFECT.
    DIS. 11: 1608-14 (2012), filed as “Pet. Ex. 12,” “Pet. Ex. 25,” and “Pet. Ex. 29.”
    22
    Pedro L. Moro et al., Adverse events after Fluzone Intradermal vaccine reported to the Vaccine Adverse
    Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2011-2013, 31 VACCINE 4984-87 (2013), filed as “Pet. Ex. 14.”
    20
    at 1, 3.23 In six of the 14 adverse events, smallpox vaccine was given concurrently with the flu
    vaccine. 
    Id. at 4.
    Another Haber study which examined adverse events following the quadrivalent
    flu vaccine found nine serious events, two of which were cardiovascular and included myocardial
    infarction. Pet. Ex. 15 at 3.
    Dr. Rose criticized Dr. Patel’s reliance on the Moro and Haber studies due to their use of
    data from VAERS. Drs. Stark, Patel, and Rose agreed that VAERS is a passive reporting system
    and that VAERS data cannot be used to establish a causal relationship between a vaccine and a
    certain adverse event. Pet. Ex. 20 at 1; Tr. 68, 287.
    Ultimately, however, Dr. Rose seemed to agree that systemic inflammation can affect
    cardiac autonomic function. See Resp. Ex. V at 3 (“A recent review…discusses our current
    understanding of the role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation, a common
    manifestation of systemic inflammation on the heart.”) He also cited several studies that confirmed
    an association between inflammation and atrial fibrillation. Id.; see Resp. Ex. V, Tab 1;24 Resp.
    Ex. V, Tab 2;25 Resp. Ex. V, Tab 3;26 Resp. Ex. V, Tab 4;27 Resp. Ex. V, Tab 5.28 Still, he cautioned
    that “[t]here is no data to suggest that inflammation is the sole or even major risk factor for atrial
    fibrillation.” Resp. Ex. V at 3.
    3. Respondent submits that literature does not support petitioner’s theory
    Dr. Rose and Dr. Murphy submitted a variety of articles in support of their assertions that
    (1) Fluzone does not cause SIRS; (2) Fluzone does not cause adverse cardiovascular events; and
    (3) Fluzone protects against adverse cardiovascular events.
    According to Dr. Rose, “A clinical definition of SIRS is still under discussion but still
    requires a broad array of multi-organ dysfunctions.” Resp. Ex. D at 6, citing Irene Cortes-Puch
    and Christiane S. Hartog, Change Is Not Necessarily Progress: Revision of the Sepsis Definition
    23
    Penina Haber et al., Post-licensure surveillance of trivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine in adults,
    United States, Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), July 2005-June 2013, 32 VACCINE 6499-
    6504 (2014), filed as “Pet. Ex. 13.”
    24
    Yu-Feng Hu et al., Inflammation and the pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation, 12 NAT. REV. CARDIOL. 230-
    243 (2015), filed as “Resp. Ex. V, Tab 1.”
    25
    Anna Borowiec et al., Prospective assessment of cytokine IL-15 activity in patients with refractory atrial
    fibrillation episodes, 74 CYTOKINE 1: 164-70 (2015), filed as “Resp. Ex. V, Tab 2.”
    26
    Renate B. Schnabel et al., Relations of Biomarkers of Distinct Pathophysiological Pathways and Atrial
    Fibrillation Incidence in the Community, 121 CIRCULATION 2: 200-07 (2010), filed as “Resp. Ex. V, Tab
    3.”
    27
    Dwayne S.G. Conway et al., Prognostic significance of raised plasma levels of interleukin-6 and C-
    reactive protein in atrial fibrillation, 148 AM. HEART J 3: 462-66 (2004), filed as “Resp. Ex. V, Tab 4.”
    28
    David Conen et al., A multimarker approach to assess the influence of inflammation on the incidence of
    atrial fibrillation in women, 31 EUR. HEART J. 1730-36 (2010), filed as “Resp. Ex. V, Tab 5.”
    21
    Should Be Based on New Scientific Insights, 194 AM. J. RESPIR. CRIT. CARE MED. 16-18 (2016).29
    However, he did note that the clinical symptoms associated with SIRS include fever, malaise,
    change in heart rate, headache, inordinate fatigue and exhaustion, muscle aches and pains, and
    chills. Tr. 263.
    Although Dr. Rose agreed that the Sanofi-Pasteur30 literature states that the most common
    systemic adverse events associated with Fluzone were myalgia, malaise, and headache, he did not
    believe that Fluzone was capable of causing a systemic inflammatory response. Tr. 297. “A
    stimulus such as a vaccine comprising purified peptides with no added adjuvant is highly unlikely
    to give rise to an uncontrolled, continuing inflammatory response unless the host has some genetic
    abnormality or previous experience that would prepare her for such a pathologic reaction.” Resp.
    Ex. D at 6. He stated that, regardless of whether one uses the term “out of control inflammatory
    syndrome or “enhanced inflammatory response,” there is no objective evidence that Fluzone
    induces greater systemic inflammation than the standard flu vaccine. Resp. Ex. V at 2. “Although
    there is evidence from clinical trials that the high dose vaccine induces higher levels of circulating
    antibody. (sic) There are no published investigations of humans documenting and quantitating an
    enhanced, generalized inflammatory response.” 
    Id. Dr. Rose
    submitted that the best support for petitioner’s theory that Fluzone can cause SIRS
    would be serial studies of blood samples taken periodically after vaccination; however, these
    studies are rarely performed in humans. Resp. Ex. D at 5; see also Resp. Ex. D, Tab 13; Resp. Ex.
    D, Tab 14;31 Resp. Ex. D, Tab 15;32 Resp. Ex. D, Tab 16.33 Dr. Rose referenced several studies
    which have performed these tests, noting that the inconsistent results between studies illustrates
    the technical and logistical difficulty in assessing cytokine levels in human blood. Resp. Ex. D at
    5.
    Dr. Rose opined that a causal connection between Fluzone and an adverse cardiovascular
    event would require a “statistical association between high dose Fluzone and the initiation or
    enhancement of cardiovascular disease…” Resp. Ex. D at 6. The literature does not support such
    an association. He offered several studies in support of this opinion. A 2014 study funded by
    Sanofi-Pasteur evaluated the effectiveness of a high-dose trivalent influenza vaccine in adults 65
    29
    This article was not filed into the record.
    30
    Sanofi-Pasteur is the manufacturer of Fluzone. 372 Fluzone High-Dose, SANOFI-PASTEUR (Revised July
    2017), filed as “Pet. Ex. 31.”)
    31
    Helder I. Nakaya et al., Systems biology of vaccination for seasonal influenza in humans, 12 NAT
    IMMUNOL 8: 786-96 (2011), filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 14.”
    32
    Petru Liuba et al., Residual adverse changes in arterial endothelial function and LDL oxidation after a
    mild systemic inflammation induced by influenza vaccination, 39 ANN. MED. 5: 392-99 (2007), filed as
    “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 15.”
    33
    Michael Y. Tsai et al., Effect of influenza vaccine on markers of inflammation and lipid profile, 145 J.
    LAB. CLIN. MED. 6: 323-27 (2005), filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 16.”
    22
    years of age and older. Resp. Ex. D, Tab 3 at 1-2.34 It found that the high-dose trivalent flu vaccine
    “induced significantly higher antibody responses” than the standard-dose flu vaccine. 
    Id. at 1.
    However, the study found that the number of deaths following the high-dose vaccine and standard-
    dose vaccine was “essentially identical,” and the deaths were classified as unrelated to the vaccine.
    Resp. Ex. D at 3; see also Resp. Ex. D, Tab 3 at 6 (stating that 83 of 15,990 participants in the
    high-dose group died, as did 84 of 15,993 participants in the standard-dose group).
    Dr. Rose also referred to several studies analyzing data from VAERS. Another Moro study
    analyzed adverse events following the trivalent standard-dose flu vaccine from 2013 to 2015; of
    309 reported adverse events, only five were cardiac events. Resp. Ex. D, Tab 6 at 3.35 The authors
    of the study “did not identify any concerning pattern” of adverse events. 
    Id. at 1.
    Similarly, a Haber
    study also analyzed adverse events from 2013 to 2015 but examined the quadrivalent standard-
    dose flu vaccine. Resp. Ex. D, Tab 7 at 1.36 Haber found that, of 127 serious reports of adverse
    events, there were 12 deaths reported following this flu vaccine from a variety of causes, including
    ventricular tachycardia leading to cardiac arrest/cardiogenic shock, dilated cardiomyopathy,
    inferior wall myocardial infarction, and heart failure. 
    Id. at 4.
    There were an additional four reports
    of cardiac adverse events. 
    Id. Nonetheless, Haber
    “did not identify any safety concerns” for the flu
    vaccine. 
    Id. at 5.
    Additionally, Dr. Rose offered studies which conducted active surveillance, rather than
    passive surveillance, of potential adverse effects of the flu vaccine. A Sanofi-Pasteur funded study
    examining the effects of Fluzone administered to adults 65 years of age and older showed that 116
    out of 319 recipients experienced systemic effects of the vaccine, but only 16 recipients
    experienced a serious adverse event. Resp. Ex. D, Resp. at 7.37 According to Dr. Rose, the serious
    adverse events consisted of vomiting or severe cough, and none suggested cardiac disease. Resp.
    Ex. D at 4. Dr Rose also cited to the 2012 IOM report, which concluded, “The evidence is
    inadequate to accept or reject a causal relationship between influenza vaccine and myocardial
    infarction.” Resp. Ex. D, Tab 5 at 5.38 The IOM report recognized that, “[w]hile rare, influenza
    infection has been associated with myocardial infarction…” it ultimately assessed the evidence of
    such an association as “lacking.” 
    Id. at 4.
    The IOM committee placed great weight on a 2004 study
    34
    See supra n.16.
    35
    Pedro L. Moro et al., Surveillance of adverse events after the first trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine
    produced in mammalian cell culture (Flucelvax®) reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System
    (VAERS), United States, 2013-2015, 33 VACCINE 6684-88 (2015), filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 6.”
    36
    Penina Haber et al., Post-licensure surveillance of quadrivalent inactivated influenza (IIV4) vaccine in
    the United States, Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), July 1, 2013-May 31, 2015, 34
    VACCINE 2507-12 (2016), filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 7.”
    37
    Peter Tsang et al., Immunogenicity and safety of Fluzone intradermal and high-dose influenza vaccines
    in older adults ≥65 years of age: A randomized, controlled, phase II trial, 32 VACCINE 2507-17 (2014),
    filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 8.”
    38
    Kathleen Stratton et al., eds., ADVERSE EFFECTS OF VACCINES: EVIDENCE AND CAUSALITY, pp. 387-89
    (2012) [“2012 IOM Report”], filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 5.”
    23
    by Smeeth, which was submitted by respondent’s experts as Resp. Ex. M.39 Smeeth reported that
    there was no increased risk of myocardial infarction within one month following influenza
    vaccination. Resp. Ex. D, Tab 5 at 4; see also Resp. Ex. M at 1. The IOM committee placed “a
    moderate degree of confidence in the epidemiologic evidence based on” the Smeeth study. 
    Id. Neither the
    Smeeth study nor the IOM report addressed Fluzone.
    Dr. Stark agreed with Dr. Rose there is no epidemiologic evidence suggesting that Fluzone
    has a poorer safety record or increased adverse reactions in recipients compared to the standard-
    dose flu vaccine but suggested that this was because no one has looked for such a correlation. Pet.
    Ex. 17 at 1.
    Both of respondent’s experts opined that medical literature does not support the view that
    Fluzone can induce or aggravate existing cardiovascular disease. Resp. Ex. D at 4; Resp. Ex. O at
    9. To the contrary, both Dr. Rose and Dr. Murphy submitted literature indicating that the flu
    vaccine protects recipients from adverse cardiovascular events. However, none of these studies
    administered Fluzone to a subject who was already ill.
    As an example, Dr. Rose offered a study published by the Cochrane Library which
    evaluated “8 trials of influenza vaccination compared with placebo or no vaccination in 12,029
    individuals.” Resp. Ex. D at 4, referencing Resp. Ex. D, Tab 10.40 According to Dr. Rose, this
    study “found that cardiovascular mortality was significantly reduced by influenza vaccination as
    were cardiovascular events.” 
    Id. Dr. Rose
    explained that instances of acute myocardial infarction
    increase during flu season; some studies show that the risk of myocardial infarction or stroke is
    more than four times higher after a respiratory tract infection, with the highest risk within three
    days. 
    Id. Another paper
    submitted by Dr. Rose analyzed case control studies on flu vaccine, flu
    infection, and acute myocardial infarction, and found that flu infection significantly raised the risk
    of disability and death in patients with ischemic heart disease. Resp. Ex. D at 5, referencing Resp.
    Ex. D, Tab 12.41 The article suggested that flu infection can lead to myocardial infarction “via
    acute coronary occlusion through thrombosis of a pre-existing, subcritical atherosclerotic plaque...
    Infection causes tachycardia, hypoxia, release of inflammatory cytokines and a thrombophilic
    state,” any of which can contribute to a myocardial infarction. Resp. Ex. D, Tab 12 at 1.
    The Udell article offered by Dr. Rose reported that a study of adults over 65 years old who
    received the high-dose flu vaccine were 24% less likely to develop the flu and also had a “reduced
    risk of pneumonia, all-cause hospitalization, and cardiopulmonary events with no increase in
    39
    Liam Smeeth et al., Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke after Acute Infection or Vaccination, 351
    N. ENGL. J. MED. 25: 2611-18 (2004), filed as “Resp. Ex. M.”
    40
    Christine Clar et al., Influenza vaccines for preventing cardiovascular disease (Review), 5 COCHRANE
    DATABASE SYST. REV. 1-55 (2015), filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 10.”
    41
    Michelle Barnes et al., Acute myocardial infarction and influenza: a meta-analysis of case-control
    studies, 101 HEART 1738-47 (2015), filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 12.”
    24
    serious adverse events compared with standard-dose vaccine.” Resp. Ex. D, Tab 9 at 3.42 Dr. Rose
    concluded, “In brief, there is no direct positive evidence for either an epidemiological association
    or a plausible mechanism to link Fluzone High Dose to the fatal heart failure in Mrs. Halverson.”
    Resp. Ex. D at 7.
    Dr. Murphy emphasized that the American Heart Association and American College of
    Cardiology (“AHA/ACC”) recommends the flu vaccine for all cardiac patients. Tr. 160; Resp. Ex.
    A at 2, 7. He recommends that his own patients with advanced heart failure receive the flu vaccine.
    Tr. 160. He explained, “patients with heart disease are generally very fragile, and are at very high
    risk if they get the flu, that it will decompensate, get arrhythmias, get heart failure, and the
    overwhelming evidence is that they benefit significantly from it.” Tr. 160-61. In Dr. Murphy’s
    opinion, “there is no good evidence that the flu vaccine is harmful to [patients with heart failure].”
    Tr. 161.
    Dr. Murphy stated that flu vaccine, like any vaccine, is intended to excite an immune
    response. Resp. Ex. O at 3. The elderly have diminished immune responses when compared to
    younger patients, so a more potent vaccine is given to combat this effect. 
    Id. The overall
    consensus
    is that influenza vaccine is beneficial in the elderly when compared to the risk of actual influenza.
    
    Id. at 4.
    In a 2006 paper, the AHA/ACC recommended the flu vaccine as secondary prevention for
    patients with coronary and other atherosclerotic disease. Resp. Ex. A at 7; Resp. Ex. L.43 Notably
    Dr. Stark pointed out that this recommendation was made three years before Fluzone was
    introduced, and therefore did not consider the potential consequences of a more potent vaccine.
    Pet. Ex. 19 at 2.
    Dr. Murphy submitted several other articles to support his opinion that Fluzone protects
    against cardiac events. A 2003 paper from the New England Journal of Medicine found that flu
    vaccination was associated with a reduction in hospitalizations for heart disease, cerebrovascular
    disease, pneumonia, and influenza, which supports the benefits of flu vaccines for the elderly.
    Resp. Ex. A at 6; Resp. Ex. K.44 The Naghavi study found that patients with coronary heart disease
    and a history of myocardial infarction who received the flu vaccine were 67% less likely to have
    a subsequent myocardial infarction. Resp. Ex. Q at 3.45 Similarly, the Grau study found that
    patients with a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack who received the flu vaccine were less
    likely to have a subsequent stroke. Resp. Ex. R at 2-3, 6.46 A fourth study found that, while “acute
    42
    Jacob A. Udell et al., Does influenza vaccination influence cardiovascular complications?, 13 EXPERT
    REV. CARDIOVASC. THER. 6: 593-96 (2015), filed as “Resp. Ex. D, Tab 9.”
    43
    See supra n.9.
    44
    See supra n.8.
    45
    Morteza Naghavi et al., Association of Influenza Vaccination and Reduced Risk of Recurrent Myocardial
    Infarction, 102 CIRCULATION 3039-45 (2000), filed as “Resp. Ex. Q.”
    46
    Armin J. Grau et al., Influenza Vaccination Is Associated With a Reduced Risk of Stroke, 36 STROKE
    1501-06 (2005), filed as “Resp. Ex. R.”
    25
    infections are associated with a transient increase in the risk of vascular events. . . influenza,
    tetanus, and pneumonia vaccinations do not produce a detectable increase in the risk of vascular
    events.” Resp. Ex. M at 1.47 None of the studies discussed by Dr. Murphy examined the effects of
    Fluzone on patients already suffering from an upper respiratory infection at the time of vaccination.
    When asked about incidences of myocardial infarction after receipt of Fluzone as noted in
    the package insert,48 Dr. Murphy agreed that there have been incidences of myocardial infarction
    after the administration of Fluzone but stated that these are “serendipitous events” which occur
    due to the high number of heart attacks that occur every year in the U.S. Tr. 162. He agreed that
    the relationship between Fluzone and myocardial infarction is “[n]ot necessarily causal, but it
    could be.” Tr. 162.
    4. Althen Prong 1/Loving Fact 4: Discussion
    Dr. Stark and Dr. Patel opined that Fluzone, which contains four times more antigen than
    the regular flu vaccine, can cause a susceptible individual to develop a systemic inflammatory
    response. This response triggers platelet aggregation and increased blood clotting, which can cause
    myocardial infarction leading to cardiac arrest. They supported these opinions with medical
    literature. Dr. Stark offered the Lanza study finding that flu vaccine-related platelet activation and
    cardiac autonomic dysfunction can increase the risk of cardiovascular events. See Pet. Ex. 10 at 1.
    In turn, Dr. Patel submitted four studies showing that some patients had adverse cardiac events,
    including myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest, following receipt of a flu vaccine. See Pet. Ex.
    12; Pet. Ex. 14; Pet. Ex. 13; Pet. Ex. 15.
    Dr. Rose and Dr. Murphy offered a bevy of literature to support their position that Fluzone
    cannot induce or aggravate existing cardiovascular disease, but rather is protective against adverse
    cardiovascular events. Dr. Rose criticized the studies offered by Dr. Patel for using data from
    VAERS; however, Dr. Rose also cited to studies which relied on VAERS data to support his point
    that Fluzone does not cause adverse cardiac events.
    Neither Dr. Rose nor Dr. Murphy pointed to any deficits in petitioner’s theory. Conversely,
    Dr. Rose noted that a protein in the flu vaccine, hemagglutinin, increases clumping of red blood
    cells, and is four times higher in Fluzone than the regular flu vaccine. At hearing, he agreed that it
    was possible for incidences of myocardial infarction to be associated with Fluzone. Tr. 288-89.
    Despite these concessions, Dr. Rose maintained that there was no “statistical association,”
    “epidemiological association,” or “plausible mechanism” to provide a causal connection between
    Fluzone and adverse cardiac events.
    However, “epidemiologic studies” are specifically not required in the Vaccine Program.
    
    Capizzano, 440 F.3d at 1325
    . The standard of proof is only “preponderance of evidence,” in order
    “to allow the finding of causation in a field bereft of complete and direct proof of how vaccines
    affect the human body.” 
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1280
    . To require petitioner to present a statistical
    association between a vaccine and a claimed injury would impermissibly raise the standard of
    47
    See supra n.39.
    48
    See supra n.30.
    26
    proof. And petitioner’s experts have supported their theory with medical literature, thus providing
    the “indicia of reliability” to support their assertions. 
    Moberly, 592 F.3d at 1324
    . Accordingly, I
    find that petitioner’s experts have proffered a sound, reliable medical theory that Fluzone can cause
    a systemic inflammatory response and increase clotting of red blood cells.
    Petitioner has satisfied Althen prong 1/Loving factor 4.
    B.     Althen Prong 2/Loving Factor 5: Logical Sequence of Cause and Effect
    Dr. Stark testified that Mrs. Halverson developed a systemic inflammatory response, which
    caused platelets to form or cause a blockage in the coronary arteries. Tr. 101. This caused her to
    suffer an acute coronary event, a heart attack, resulting in cardiac arrest. Tr. 101. He explained that
    she suffered from a ventricular arrhythmia caused by a shortage of blood flow to her heart muscle
    because her coronary artery was blocked by platelets. Tr. 130.
    According to Dr. Stark, there was both a pathological and temporal link to implicate the
    high dose flu vaccine in Mrs. Halverson’s sudden death. Pet. Ex. 18 at 4. Fluzone induced systemic
    inflammation in Mrs. Halverson, which significantly increased her risk for arrhythmia, myocardial
    infarction, and sudden cardiac death, given her preexisting co-morbidities of diabetes,
    hypertension, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, and congestive heart failure. Pet. Ex. 17 at
    2; Pet. Ex. 19 at 2. He ultimately concluded that the Fluzone vaccine administered to Mrs.
    Halverson on January 9, 2014, caused a systemic inflammatory response which caused platelets to
    form, affecting blood flow to the heart. Tr. 101. This significantly aggravated her atrial fibrillation
    and secondarily worsened her underlying congestive heart failure and was a substantial factor in
    causing her ultimate cardiac arrest from which she could not be resuscitated. Pet. Ex. 18 at 1.
    Dr. Patel similarly concluded that the Fluzone vaccine administered to Mrs. Halverson on
    January 9, 2014 was a significant contributing factor in causing an adverse cardiac event and her
    death on January 13, 2014. Pet. Ex. 22 at 3. “I believe it caused a hyper-response of the
    inflammation and immune system, which caused the platelets to aggregate together and cause
    subsequent cardiac events.” Tr. 59. Dr. Patel agreed that Mrs. Halverson’s URI symptoms
    indicated that she was already immunocompromised when she was administered the vaccine. Tr.
    59.
    1. Fluzone caused Mrs. Halverson to develop a systemic inflammatory response
    According to Dr. Patel, following receipt of Fluzone, Mrs. Halverson developed symptoms
    consistent with the criteria for SIRS. Dr. Patel noted that she developed increased heart rate,
    increased respiratory rate or shortness of breath, and increased white cell count, adding that, if a
    person had an upper respiratory infection and then received Fluzone, the vaccine would have a
    magnified effect, “because the patient’s immune system is already activated from an underlying
    condition.” Tr. 58, 65-66. The effect would be synergistic. Tr. 58. Dr. Stark agreed that there was
    a synergistic effect between Fluzone and Mrs. Halverson’s ongoing URI which worsened her
    cardiac condition. Tr. 101-02. He noted that she complained of shortness of breath post-
    vaccination and explained that an inflammatory response can affect breathing, causing shortness
    of breath. Tr. 134. It can also cause a person to feel weak. Tr. 134.
    27
    Dr. Patel could only speculate about Mrs. Halverson’s symptoms, because there was no
    evidence in the record reflecting that Mrs. Halverson actually did experience increased heart rate,
    respiratory rate, and/or white cell count following her receipt of Fluzone. Tr. 65-66. Dr. Patel
    conceded that diagnosing patients is not within the boundaries of his pharmacist licensure, and he
    would defer to a medical doctor for diagnostic purposes. Tr. 67.
    Petitioner reported to the paramedics and emergency room physicians that, in the days that
    followed her receipt of Fluzone, Mrs. Halverson grew weaker, had lethargy, malaise, and shortness
    of breath, and could not get up off of the couch. He also reported these symptoms to Dr. Sparagna
    after she passed. See Pet. Ex. 9 at 16-17; Pet. Ex. 4 at 62; Tr. 12-15.
    Dr. Rose offered a Sanofi-Pasteur study showing recipients of the flu vaccine experiencing
    vomiting and severe cough. Resp. Ex. D, Tab 8 at 7.49 Petitioner testified to Mrs. Halverson
    vomiting and coughing all night after receipt of Fluzone.
    2. Mrs. Halverson’s systemic inflammatory response affected her cardiac function
    Dr. Stark opined, “. . . on January 9, 2014, the date of the vaccination, Mrs. Halverson’s
    cardiac condition was stable, and the examination did not reveal signs of an imminent adverse
    event. Specifically, Mrs. Halverson did not have a displaced apical impulse, and she had normal
    heart auscultation, including normal S1 and S2, without murmurs, rubs, or gallops. Her heartbeat
    was regularly irregular.” Pet. Ex. 18 at 3. He explained, “A person can have an atrial arrhythmia,
    which [Mrs. Halverson] did, occasionally, and can live and can thrive…A person can live with
    [atrial fibrillation], a person can do all his or her usual activities, it’s very, very seldom fatal.” Tr.
    129-31. In addition to her atrial fibrillation, she also had insulin-dependent diabetes with chronic
    renal insufficiency, high cholesterol, obesity, and hypertension, as well as left bundle branch block
    and intermittent ventricular tachycardia. Pet. Ex. 20 at 2. “Together, these risk factors put Mrs.
    Halverson at extreme high risk for any external factor that could destabilize her heart rhythm,
    impair her heart function, or make her blood and platelets more prone to clotting.” 
    Id. Dr. Patel
    agreed, stating “[t]he elevated/altered cardiovascular parameters in a patient with diabetes and
    cardiovascular disease leads to catastrophic consequences and results in abnormal demand/supply
    of blood flow to the heart.” Pet. Ex. 22 at 4.
    Dr. Stark opined that Mrs. Halverson’s underlying risk factors made her “far more
    vulnerable to the synergistic effect of platelet activation and autonomic dysfunction.” Pet. Ex. 17
    at 1. When asked what ultimately caused her cardiac arrest and death, Dr. Stark responded, “It was
    an acute coronary event causing a heart attack which caused her heart to stop…[d]ue to
    inflammation causing platelets to complete a blockage of her coronary artery, and the
    inflammation was due to a preceding flu immunization.” Tr. 101. He referred to the arm pain and
    numbness that Mrs. Halverson complained of post-vaccination, explaining, “. . . females who are
    having heart attacks, often get arm numbness and don’t get chest pain. [Mrs. Halverson] fits the
    pattern.…it is more likely than not that [Mrs. Halverson] was experiencing the beginning of a heart
    attack, at least before she collapsed.” Tr. 97.
    49
    See supra n.37.
    28
    Dr. Stark submitted medical literature indicating that in susceptible individuals,
    particularly diabetics, the flu vaccine can induce platelet activation, adrenergic predominance, and
    inflammatory reactions. Pet. Ex. 18 at 3; see also Pet. Ex. 10 (Study concluding “that influenza A
    vaccination in patients with type II diabetes induces, together with the expected inflammatory
    reaction, an increase in platelet activation and a cardiac sympathovagal imbalance”).50 He
    explained that, due to her co-morbidities, which included diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia,
    atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, and coronary artery disease with permanent defibrillator
    and reduced ejection fraction, Mrs. Halverson was extremely susceptible to “any external factor
    that could destabilize her heart rhythm, impair her heart function, or make her blood and platelets
    more prone to clotting.” Id.; Pet. Ex. 20 at 2. “The pathophysiological link between the
    inflammatory and the cardiac autonomic responses to the vaccine are manifested by an increased
    risk of cardiovascular events and significant changes in heart rate variables.” 
    Id. at 3-4.
    Dr. Stark
    concluded that the “systemic inflammatory effects” from Fluzone exacerbated Mrs. Halverson’s
    cardiac conditions and contributed to or caused her cardiac arrest. Pet. Ex. 17 at 2; Pet. Ex. 20 at
    2.
    3. Respondent submits that there is no evidence that Fluzone caused Mrs. Halverson to
    develop a systemic inflammatory response and/or a worsened cardiac condition
    Dr. Rose agreed that, on the date of her vaccination, Mrs. Halverson was in relatively good
    health, although she complained of upper respiratory symptoms for three days. Resp. Ex. D at 3.
    In his opinion, there is nothing to suggest that Mrs. Halverson had hyperinflammation or any signs
    of chronically dysregulated inflammasomes. 
    Id. at 8.
    According to Dr. Rose, the best support for
    petitioner’s expert’s suggestion of heightened chronic inflammation generated from Fluzone
    would be serial blood samples taken periodically after vaccination. 
    Id. at 6.
    This was not done here
    and is rarely done on humans. 
    Id. In Dr.
    Murphy’s opinion, however, measurement of serum
    markers would not likely be helpful since patients with heart failure, renal failure, or diabetes may
    have elevated cytokine levels absent influenza vaccine. Resp. Ex. O at 4.
    In lieu of Dr. Stark’s theory that Fluzone caused out-of-control inflammation in Mrs.
    Halverson, resulting in platelet aggregation and adverse effects to cardiac autonomic function, Dr.
    Rose offered macrophage activation syndrome, a clinical condition marked by activation and
    expansion of the macrophages and other innate immune cells, as an example of a systemic cytokine
    response. Resp. Ex. D at 7. He stated, “These are systemic diseases involv[ing] multiple organs
    caused by dysregulated production of many pro-inflammatory cytokines.” 
    Id. In response,
    Dr.
    Stark stated that Dr. Rose mischaracterized his opinion. On the contrary, his opinion invoked “the
    well-recognized, enhanced inflammatory response that is characteristic following Fluzone
    immunization,” but “in a highly susceptible individual, would be more than sufficient to trigger
    cardiac arrhythmia, congestive heart failure or cardiac arrest.” Pet. Ex. 20 at 2.
    Dr. Rose agreed that Mrs. Halverson’s condition became worse after Fluzone. Tr. 301. He
    agreed that vomiting and severe cough were known adverse effects of Fluzone. Tr. 302. He stated
    that he could not rule out the possibility that her malaise, vomiting, catatonia, and other symptoms
    were due to Fluzone. Tr. 301. He noted the possibility that Fluzone could cause an enhanced
    50
    See supra n.19.
    29
    systemic response in a person with an ongoing upper respiratory infection and agreed that an upper
    respiratory infection can induce an inflammatory response. Tr. 294, 309. Dr. Rose agreed that Mrs.
    Halverson’s symptoms following receipt of the Fluzone vaccine “could be the result of an
    inflammatory reaction” but stated that it would not be the result of an immune response, which
    would take more time. Tr. 266. When asked if Mrs. Halverson developed SIRS, Dr. Rose
    responded that she had some changes that were associated with SIRS but not others, and it
    depended on the criteria used for SIRS. Tr. 277. In his opinion, he did not believe she suffered
    from SIRS. Tr. 278. Dr. Rose concluded that there is no evidence that a systemic event like SIRS
    caused heart failure in Mrs. Halverson. Resp. Ex. D at 7.
    Dr. Murphy opined that, prior to her receipt of Fluzone, Mrs. Halverson “had really bad
    heart disease. She had a cardiomyopathy, which means the [heart] muscle wasn’t squeezing well.”
    Tr. 180. However, he also agreed that despite her health conditions, she was “doing pretty well.”
    Tr. 180. He further agreed that Mrs. Halverson was “feeling a little bit crummy after the flu
    vaccine”, and that she was sick and had symptoms that would be compatible with an upper
    respiratory tract infection. Tr. 199, 217. “Based on the record it probably was an upper respiratory
    infection, but…it could have been a heart failure exacerbation that wasn’t fully recognized.” Tr.
    217. He stated, “[I]t would seem that she obviously was ill…she probably had some kind of an
    upper respiratory infection, but I can’t exclude that it’s something a bit more.” Tr. 218. He also
    suggested that she may have had pneumonia. Tr. 181.
    Despite the foregoing, Dr. Murphy concluded that there is “no convincing clinical
    evidence” to support that Mrs. Halverson had an inflammatory response following Fluzone. Resp.
    Ex. O at 3. When asked about Mrs. Halverson’s symptoms of malaise, fatigue, vomiting, and
    catatonia in the days after receiving Fluzone, Dr. Murphy responded that those symptoms could
    be explained by a progression in her renal dysfunction, uncontrolled diabetes, or worsening heart
    failure. She did not meet the definition of SIRS. Tr. 198. He noted that Mrs. Halverson reported
    increasing shortness of breath prior to the administration of the Fluzone vaccine, and attributed it
    to a respiratory tract infection, an exacerbation of her heart failure, or a combination of both. Resp.
    Ex. A at 4. In Dr. Murphy’s opinion, it was possible, but not probable, that the Fluzone vaccine
    given to Mrs. Halverson adversely affected her health. Tr. 201. “So my answer would be, there is
    a possibility, but I think it’s improbable that the flu vaccine had anything to do with her eventual
    and tragic death.” Tr. 201.
    According to Dr. Murphy, Mrs. Halverson was a biologically fragile patient, so a specific
    cause of sudden deterioration is often multifactorial and difficult to determine. Resp. Ex. O at 3.
    She probably had coronary atherosclerosis, but due to her renal function, a coronary angiogram
    could not be performed, so while this diagnosis was suspected, it could not be proven. 
    Id. Dr. Murphy
    opined that, due to a lack of testing, there was no evidence of inflammation in Mrs.
    Halverson’s heart.
    …the possibility of idiosyncratic individual harm in a specific patient cannot be
    completely excluded. Short of an antemortem endocardial biopsy or postmortem
    histological examination of Mrs. Halverson’s heart (which to the best of my
    knowledge did not occur), there is no scientific method based on my review of her
    30
    clinical notes to reliably detect cellular inflammation in the heart muscle or
    inflammation in a coronary artery atherosclerotic plaque.
    Resp. Ex. O at 3-4.
    Dr. Murphy pointed to Dr. Stark’s recognition of Mrs. Halverson’s frailties, submitting that
    he was inconsistent when he referred to her being clinically stable and not at high risk for clinical
    deterioration. Resp. Ex. O at 2, citing Pet. Ex. 20 at 2. Dr. Murphy took issue with Dr. Stark’s
    statement that Mrs. Halverson’s medical problems were successfully treated for 65 years. 
    Id. at 7.
    Dr. Murphy stated that patients with congestive heart failure have a five-year survival rate of about
    50% unless a structural defect is identified and remedied. 
    Id. He pointed
    out that her cardiologist
    noted her to have a “very brittle” cardiovascular system. Id.; see also Pet. Ex. 4 at 83. She also had
    chronic renal failure, which is associated with a significantly increased risk of mortality. 
    Id. Dr. Murphy
    admitted that, if he had been treating Mrs. Halverson, he would have done a
    chest x-ray when her symptoms did not improve following her appointment on January 9, 2014.
    Tr. 192-93. If she had been his patient, he would have told her to come back a week after the
    January 9, 2014 visit before giving her the flu vaccine. Tr. 194-95. Dr. Murphy explained, “I would
    feel more comfortable that this upper respiratory tract infection had blown over before I would
    give her the vaccine.” Tr. 195. “I would prefer to vaccinate somebody in the whole of their health
    rather than vaccinating them when they have a concurrent infection going on.” Tr. 195. “I’m not
    aware of data which says giving a flu vaccine to somebody with an upper respiratory tract infection
    is dangerous,” but he agreed that studies of Fluzone have excluded patients with upper respiratory
    infections from participating. He agreed that traditionally, a child will not be vaccinated if he or
    she is ill. Tr. 196.
    When asked if Mrs. Halverson’s condition/death could have been a combination of her
    diabetes, her heart, other comorbidities, and the Fluzone vaccination, Dr. Murphy concluded, “I
    cannot separate out any one of those as specifically causal.” Tr. 199-200.
    5. Althen Prong 2/Loving Factor 5: Discussion
    Petitioner testified that, in the days following her receipt of Fluzone, Mrs. Halverson
    suffered from severe cough, vomiting, shortness of breath, fatigue, weakness, and malaise. Tr. 11-
    16. Petitioner’s testimony is corroborated by the medical records and the emergency room records,
    which reflect that petitioner reported that Mrs. Halverson had been suffering from an upper
    respiratory infection, malaise, weakness, decreased intake, cough, shortness of breath, nausea,
    vomiting, and congestion for the past few days. Pet. Ex. 9 at 16-17.
    According to Drs. Patel, Stark, and Rose, a systemic inflammatory response is evidenced
    by fever, chills, muscles aches and pains, headache, fatigue, malaise, increased heart rate, and
    increased respiratory rate. Tr. 72, 114-15, 133-34, 263. The symptoms that Mrs. Halverson
    developed in the days following her receipt of Fluzone fit squarely within the clinical symptoms
    associated with SIRS.
    31
    All of the experts in this matter agreed that Mrs. Halverson had a fragile cardiovascular
    system, and that she had a URI at the time she received Fluzone. Pet. Ex. 17 at 1; Pet. Ex. 18 at 3;
    Pet. Ex. 20 at 2; Pet. Ex. 22 at 4; Resp. Ex. A at 3, 4, 22; Resp. Ex. O at 9; Resp. Ex. D at 3; Tr.
    58, 101-02. Drs. Patel and Stark testified that the combination of Fluzone and the URI, in the
    setting of Mrs. Halverson’s increased susceptibility to cardiac events, caused her cardiac arrest.
    Dr. Murphy conceded that he could not separate out her diabetes, cardiac issues, other
    comorbidities and the Fluzone vaccination as specifically causal. Tr. 199-200.
    This case resembles Shyface v. Sec’y of Health & Human Services, in which Cheyenne
    Shyface was vaccinated with whole-cell DPT at the time he was beginning an E. coli infection.
    Both the DPT and the E. coli infection could and did cause a fever, which rose to 110 degrees,
    resulting in Cheyenne’s death four days 
    later. 165 F.3d at 1345
    . Respondent defended the case
    and argued that the E. coli infection was the cause of his fever and death. Cheyenne’s treating
    physician testified that both the vaccine and the infection were equally responsible for his fever
    and death. The Federal Circuit held that each of the two factors, the vaccine and the infection, was
    a substantial factor in causing the baby’s very high fever and death and but for the vaccination, the
    baby would not have had the high fever and would not have died. 
    Id. at 1353.
    I find here that Mrs. Halverson’s upper respiratory infection, her co-morbidities, and
    Fluzone were all substantial factors contributing to her death. But for Fluzone, Mrs. Halverson
    would not have died. Accordingly, petitioner has satisfied Althen prong 2/Loving factor 5.
    C.     Althen Prong 3/Loving Factor 6: Temporal Relationship
    Dr. Stark stated that the “four-day proximate temporal relationship” supports his opinion
    that Mrs. Halverson’s vaccine on January 9, 2013 “significantly aggravated her atrial fibrillation,
    myocardial infarction and death.” Pet. Ex. 18 at 4.
    Dr. Stark explained that Fluzone elicits an “enhanced systemic inflammatory response”
    which generally occurs three to seven days after immunization, the same length of time between
    Mrs. Halverson’s receipt of Fluzone and her subsequent cardiac arrest. Pet. Ex. 19 at 1. At hearing,
    he discussed the amount of time it takes for an inflammatory response to develop following
    Fluzone. Dr. Stark testified, “…beginning at day three or three (sic) four [after vaccination], you
    are getting an inflammatory response and the effect on the heart is such that if your heart was
    jumpy to begin with, that you had extra heartbeats, you had arrhythmias, which are bad, jazzing
    up the heart by – with inflammation makes those extra beats be even more frequent and a rhythm
    is more likely.” Tr. 93. He added, “The local inflammation [in the arm where the vaccine was
    injected] begins in 10 hours after the immunization, but the production of antibodies and
    inflammation goes seven, 10, 14 days.” Tr. 93.
    For support, Dr. Stark cited to the package insert for Fluzone, noting that the “label
    indicates that the vaccine may cause Guillain-Barre syndrome for up to 6 weeks after
    administration.” Pet. Ex. 18 at 4, citing Pet. Ex. 31. Dr. Stark concluded, “It is well-established
    that reactions to the influenza vaccines manifest up to weeks after the administration of the vaccine
    and adverse events often manifest in a shorter timeframe.” 
    Id. 32 Dr.
    Rose testified that it takes four to six days for the immune system to generate antibodies
    to Fluzone. Tr. 259. He stated that a local reaction to Fluzone, evidenced by swelling and redness
    at the injection site, “will generally go for maybe two to four days, depending again on the intensity
    of the inflammatory response.” Tr. 262. Dr. Rose did not address whether four days is an
    appropriate amount of time for a person to develop a systemic inflammatory reaction.
    According to Dr. Murphy, the temporal relationship between Mrs. Halverson’s receipt of
    Fluzone and subsequent cardiac arrest can be adequately explained by her history of long standing
    cardiac, diabetic, hypertensive and renal disease. Resp. Ex. O at 9. Dr. Murphy opined that
    congestive heart failure and atrial fibrillation are common diseases in the elderly “and would be
    expected to frequently occur proximate to influenza vaccination by chance alone.” 
    Id. at 8.
    According to Dr. Murphy, the coincidence of flu vaccination and heart failure or atrial fibrillation
    in the elderly population is so common that the “determination of a causal relationship. . . would
    be almost impossible.” 
    Id. He provided
    statistics in support of his opinion, stating that there are
    5.7 million heart failure patients in the United States; about 50% of patients with heart failure die
    within 5 years of diagnosis. Resp. Ex. A at 4; Resp. Ex. G at 1.51 Dr. Murphy estimated that a 50%
    mortality rate over five years is equivalent to about 500,000 deaths due to heart failure every year.
    Resp. Ex. A at 4. During the 2013-2014 flu season, 46% of people in the U.S. received the flu
    vaccine. Resp. Ex. F at 1. If 46% of heart failure patients were vaccinated, then about 230,000
    vaccinated heart failure patients die annually. Resp. Ex. A at 4. By what he called a “back of the
    envelope calculation” from data of peer reviewed literature, Dr. Murphy stated that in “a 6-month
    window for influenza vaccination, the estimated number of US heart failure patients who will die
    within one week of influenza vaccination based solely on chance and not causally related to
    influenza vaccination is estimated at 8,000-9,000 annually.” 
    Id. Dr. Murphy
    did not submit any
    studies where individuals suffering from an upper respiratory infection who also had a fragile
    cardiovascular system received Fluzone without event.
    Althen Prong 3/Loving Factor 6: Discussion
    Mrs. Halverson had a URI when she received Fluzone on January 9, 2014. Later that
    evening, she began vomiting and developed a severe cough. On January 10, 2014, she had
    numbness and tingling in her arms, fatigue, malaise, weakness, and shortness of breath. She
    deteriorated and, three days later, suffered a cardiac arrest and died.
    Petitioner’s experts opined that there is a temporal relationship between Mrs. Halverson’s
    receipt of Fluzone and her development of SIRS. Dr. Stark pointed to the Fluzone package insert,
    which, among other warnings, included the onset of systemic adverse events usually within three
    days of vaccination. See Pet. Ex. 31 at 3. Dr. Murphy did not address whether four days was
    appropriate for a systemic inflammatory response; rather, he viewed Mrs. Halverson’s death four
    days after Fluzone as coincidental and solely due to her heart conditions. Dr. Rose did not discuss
    the length of time required for a systemic inflammatory reaction to develop, but he did state that it
    takes four to six days for the immune system to generate antibodies to Fluzone. This opinion
    implies that Mrs. Halverson’s symptoms began too rapidly to be a response to her receipt of
    Fluzone. However, I have previously found that administration of a flu vaccine in the setting of a
    51
    CDC Heart Failure Fact Sheet, filed as “Resp. Ex. G.”
    33
    preexisting URI can cause an increased immune response resulting in a more rapid onset of
    symptoms, based on the concession made by respondent’s expert in that case. See Lehrman v.
    Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 13-901V, 
    2018 WL 1788477
    , at *19 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr.
    Mar. 19, 2018) (Finding a temporal relationship existed between petitioner’s flu vaccine and
    development of GBS symptoms within 24 hours, when the petitioner had recently suffered a URI
    at the time of his vaccination).
    Furthermore, Mrs. Halverson’s clinical course is analogous to that experienced by the
    vaccinee in Bragg v. Sec’y of Health & Human Services. In Bragg, the vaccinee “felt ill 30 minutes
    after receiving the flu vaccination. He never felt any better but continued to get worse until he
    died.” 
    2012 WL 404773
    , at *26 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Jan. 18, 2012). The special master found that
    there was a temporal connection between the vaccinee’s flu vaccine and his development of SIRS:
    The timing is compelling in this case….When someone becomes ill with a vaccine
    injury and worsens day by day until he dies, a reasonable conclusion is that the
    immunologic challenge caused the illness.…In the instant action, the timing of
    decedent’s onset of his mortal illness is consistent with systemic inflammation
    response syndrome, the response being to flu vaccination.
    
    Id. at *26-27.
    Notably, the vaccinee’s symptoms began shortly after vaccination and continued to
    progress until his death five days post-vaccination. 
    Id. at *1.
    The timing of Mrs. Halverson’s
    clinical course is very similar, with an already fulminating upper respiratory infection and an onset
    of vomiting, coughing, and progressive deterioration the day of vaccination, culminating in death
    four days later. Like the special master in Bragg, I find the timing of Mrs. Halverson’s receipt of
    Fluzone and subsequent deterioration quite compelling. According to petitioner’s experts, it is
    medically acceptable to infer a temporal relationship between Fluzone and Mrs. Halverson’s
    development of SIRS and subsequent death. Respondent’s experts did little to dispel petitioner’s
    argument. Accordingly, petitioner has satisfied Althen prong 3/Loving factor 6.
    D.     Loving Factor 1: Mrs. Halverson’s Condition Prior to Fluzone
    As detailed in the facts section above, prior to her receipt of Fluzone, Mrs. Halverson had
    a host of co-morbidities. See Pet. Ex. 3 at 2-7; Pet. Ex. 4 at 7, 11; Pet. Ex. 7 at 1, 5. She also had a
    history of heart issues as documented at length throughout this Ruling. See Pet. Ex. 3 at 2; Pet. Ex.
    4 at 27; Pet. Ex. 7 at 5, 24-29, 41, 91-92, 104, 154-55.
    When she presented for placement of a permanent biventricular AICD in September of
    2013, Mrs. Halverson’s expected survival was greater than one year. Pet. Ex. 7 at 104. The AICD
    was recommended due to Mrs. Halverson’s potential for sudden cardiac related to her episodes of
    ventricular tachycardia. 
    Id. at 7-8.
    As the medical records reflect, after placement of the AICD, Mrs. Halverson’s health
    improved. She had more energy and wanted to walk more. Tr. 42. At a visit with Dr. Arluck in
    November of 2013, Mrs. Halverson reported that she no longer had nocturnal dyspnea but still had
    shortness of breath when walking. Pet. Ex. 6 at 19; Pet. Ex. 7 at 14. An echocardiogram showed
    that she had atrial and biventricular racing. Pet. Ex. 4 at 4. Petitioner recalled that petitioner saw
    34
    Dr. Arluck in December of 2013; he stated that Mrs. Halverson was “doing fine” and told her to
    return in four months. Tr. 9.
    According to petitioner, Mrs. Halverson developed a slight cold around January 7 and 8,
    with cough, sneezing, and congestion. Tr. 8, 47. He did not recall her being fatigued or having
    shortness of breath or having a similar cold himself. Tr. 24-26.
    Upon presenting to Dr. Sparagna on January 9, 2014, Mrs. Halverson was noted to have
    nasal congestion, a loose but non-productive cough, and a scratchy throat. Pet. Ex. 3 at 5. She
    reported “clogged” ears and difficulty hearing but no ear pain. 
    Id. She complained
    of fatigue and
    was noted to walk with a cane for balance. 
    Id. She did
    not have difficulty breathing at that
    examination. 
    Id. Dr. Sparagna
    diagnosed her with an upper respiratory. 
    Id. at 5,
    7. She was
    administered a Fluzone vaccine. 
    Id. at 2.
    E.     Loving Factor 2: Mrs. Halverson’s Condition Following Fluzone
    Petitioner stated that Mrs. Halverson experienced “rapid degeneration” following Fluzone;
    he recalled that she began vomiting later the day of the vaccine, after dinner, and continued to
    vomit through the night, culminating in dry heaves the following morning. Tr. 11, 28. According
    to petitioner, Mrs. Halverson had started to lose her voice and her hearing. Tr. 12. Her arms were
    numb and tingling, “like when your foot goes to sleep.” Tr. 12. Petitioner described her as “zombie-
    like,” with “less than half of her normal energy.” Tr. 12, 14.
    Mrs. Halverson deteriorated in the following days and petitioner finally convinced her to
    go to the hospital on January 13, but she wanted to change her clothes first. Tr. 15-16. She
    collapsed while in the bathroom and could not be resuscitated. Tr. 16; Pet. Ex. 9 at 16-17; 20-21.
    Her immediate cause of death was listed as cardiac arrest due to ischemic heart disease. Pet. Ex. 2
    at 1.
    F.     Loving Factor 3: Significant Aggravation vs. Natural Progression of Disease
    Dr. Murphy submitted that Mrs. Halverson’s death was the result of the natural progression
    of her severe cardiac disease combined with her comorbidities. In his opinion, Mrs. Halverson
    suffered from a “constellation of medical conditions” which placed her “at high risk of sudden
    cardiac death without the need to invoke a vaccine specific etiology for her untimely death.” Resp.
    Ex. A at 3. In his opinion, her sudden death was typical of the natural course of the patient with
    severe structural cardiac disease with recurrent episodes of heart failure and poor left ventricular
    function compounded by insulin-dependent diabetes and chronic renal failure. Resp. Ex. A at 4.
    1. Respondent submits that Mrs. Halverson was in poor cardiac condition prior to Fluzone
    Dr. Murphy thoroughly discussed Mrs. Halverson’s medical history in his reports and at
    hearing. He noted that she likely had underlying suspected coronary artery disease based on her
    history of smoking, insulin-dependent diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and renal failure.
    Resp. Ex. A at 3. Dr. Murphy clarified that she was only “suspected” to have coronary artery
    disease because her doctors did not do a coronary angiogram, which, in Dr. Murphy’s opinion,
    35
    “you would typically do [here].” Tr. 166; Resp. Ex. A at 3. Dr. Murphy suggested that Mrs.
    Halverson’s doctors “were afraid that they would precipitate a further decline in her kidney
    function, because the x-ray dye tends to be toxic to the kidneys.” Tr. 166.
    A nuclear stress test in 2013 showed that Mrs. Halverson had abnormal ventricular function
    with multiple regional wall motion abnormalities but no definitive evidence of myocardial
    ischemia. Resp. Ex. A at 3. According to Dr. Murphy, this did not exclude occult coronary artery
    disease. 
    Id. She had
    a permanent pacemaker due to heart block in 2001 and biventricular
    pacemaker/defibrillator in 2013. 
    Id. Dr. Murphy
    noted that, after Mrs. Halverson received the AICD, her ejection fraction
    improved, though it was still below normal. Tr. 168-69. It went from 25 to 30 percent up to 45
    percent. Tr. 172-73. She had an EKG on December 12, 2013 which showed an ejection fraction of
    45 to 50 percent, “which is much better than the 25 to 30 percent previously.” Tr. 183. According
    to Dr. Murphy, Mrs. Halverson had “a reasonably good response” to the AICD. Tr. 183. He added,
    “[T]he ejection fraction is useful, but there are limitations to how effective it is. And just because
    your ejection fraction is normal doesn’t mean that you’re okay.” Tr. 169. Dr. Murphy conceded
    that, “[T]he fact that her ejection fraction got better would reduce the risk of sudden death.” Tr.
    177.
    Mrs. Halverson had an echocardiogram on December 12, which showed “abnormal
    diastolic function, which is typical of patients who have long-standing hypertension, and patients
    with kidney disease.” Tr. 185. Dr. Murphy estimated that the abnormal diastolic function was long-
    standing. Tr. 185. He observed that her pulmonary valve, aorta, and pericardium were normal. Tr.
    186. He further noted that she had signs of an old heart attack. Tr. 186.
    According to Dr. Murphy, it is possible but unproven that Mrs. Halverson may have had a
    myocardial infarction. Resp. Ex. A at 22. In his opinion, it is more likely that she had ventricular
    fibrillation secondary to her underlying ventricular dysfunction and congestive heart failure. 
    Id. “A relatively
    normal clinical examination does not exclude the possibility of sudden cardiac
    arrhythmia in a very high-risk patient, such as Mrs. Halverson.” 
    Id. He noted
    that the rhythm strip
    from her ER admission showed ventricular fibrillation. Id.; see also Pet. Ex. 9 at 8. In Dr. Murphy’s
    opinion, “She died of a cardiac arrest” caused by ventricular fibrillation. Tr. 211, 222.
    Additionally, Dr. Murphy added that Mrs. Halverson was short of breath prior to
    vaccination, “which was probably an exacerbation of her congestive heart failure. Thus she was
    not [in] stable condition prior to her vaccination.” Resp. Ex. A at 21. The medical records indicate
    that Mrs. Halverson routinely reported shortness of breath beginning in 2010. See Pet. Ex. 4 at 44-
    45, 59-60.
    2. Respondent submits that Mrs. Halverson was at a high risk for sudden death
    In Dr. Murphy’s opinion, Mrs. Halverson was at a high risk for sudden death prior to her
    receipt of the Fluzone vaccine. At hearing, Dr. Murphy explained that 50 percent of patients with
    heart failure die within five years. According to Dr. Murphy, Mrs. Halverson’s heart failure began
    36
    “several years” before her death in 2013 and was the natural progression of disease for a person
    with heart failure. Tr. 202.
    To support his opinion, Dr. Murphy offered multiple statistics on heart failure. He
    explained that sudden death is common in patients with congestive heart failure, occurring at a rate
    of six to nine times that of the general population. Resp. Ex. A at 5. Heart failure contributes to
    287,000 deaths a year; in 2009, one in nine deaths was attributed to heart failure. 
    Id. 50% of
    patients who develop heart failure die within five years. 
    Id. More than
    five percent of people age
    60 to 69 have congestive heart failure, and 10 per 1,000 people older than age 65 have congestive
    heart failure. 
    Id. Heart failure
    is responsible for 11 million medical visits each year and more
    hospitalizations than all forms of cancer combined. 
    Id. One-fifth of
    all hospitalizations have heart
    failure as the primary or secondary diagnosis. 
    Id. Based on
    these statistics, he was confident that
    Mrs. Halverson had a high risk of sudden death prior to receiving the Fluzone vaccine and that her
    sudden death four days after Fluzone did not imply a causal relationship. Resp. Ex. O at 9.
    Dr. Murphy further submitted that Mrs. Halverson had an expected five-year mortality of
    50 to 70% based on end stage kidney disease. Resp. Ex. A at 4. She was given a diagnosis of stage
    IV kidney disease in 2011. Pet. Ex. 4 at 37-38. According to her records, she had not progressed
    to stage V, or “end stage” kidney disease, which requires dialysis.52 The experts did not discuss
    whether renal failure could cause cardiac arrest, but Dr. Murphy stated that one possibility for Mrs.
    Halverson’s symptoms following Fluzone was progression of her renal dysfunction. Tr. 198.
    However, there are no medical records indicating that Mrs. Halverson’s renal disease was
    worsening at that time.
    Dr. Murphy concluded, “I think the cause of her death was the natural history of her
    multiple comorbidities, particularly her heart disease, her renal failure, her diabetes, and more
    likely than not, that was the cause of this poor lady’s death.” Tr. 202.
    Dr. Patel agreed that heart failure and renal failure can also cause immunostimulation. Tr.
    66. However, he noted that Mrs. Halverson appeared to improve following the implantation of the
    AICD and her deterioration occurred shortly after vaccine administration. Tr. 66-67.
    In response to Dr. Murphy’s opinion that Mrs. Halverson’s death was secondary to her
    long term underlying cardiac risk factors, Dr. Stark pointed out that for 65 years she had been
    successfully treated for each of her medical problems. Pet. Ex. 19 at 1.
    3. Loving Factor 3: Discussion
    While Mrs. Halverson suffered from a number of conditions, including diabetes, renal
    failure, atrial fibrillation, and congestive heart failure, she had been living with these conditions
    for years. She worked to maintain her health, regularly presenting for care to her cardiologist,
    primary care physician, and other specialists. Following the implantation of an AICD in September
    of 2013, Mrs. Halverson had more energy and was more active. Approximately one month before
    she received the Fluzone vaccine, she had an echocardiogram, which showed that her left
    52
    “Stage 5 [of chronic kidney disease] has a GFR below 15 (end-stage renal disease), and patients require
    dialysis.” Chronic kidney disease, DORLAND’S at 530.
    37
    ventricular systolic function had markedly improved since the last study. Her cardiologist said she
    was “doing fine.” Overall, it appears that her heart condition, while serious, was stable.
    When she presented to Dr. Sparagna on January 9, 2014 with an upper respiratory infection,
    Mrs. Halverson reported nasal congestion, a loose but non-productive cough, scratchy throat,
    numbness in her feet, fatigue, and difficulty hearing; she did not complain of vomiting, severe
    cough, weakness, or malaise. Pet. Ex. 3 at 5-7. She was not “zombie-like.” She walked into the
    doctor’s office of her own accord and went to the pharmacy with petitioner to purchase the
    medication prescribed. Her health took a rapid and markedly devastating turn that evening after
    receiving the Fluzone vaccination. Tr. 10-17; Pet. Ex. 9 at 16-17.
    Dr. Stark and Dr. Murphy agree that Mrs. Halverson’s immediate cause of death was
    cardiac arrest but differ as to the cause of said cardiac arrest. In Dr. Stark’s opinion, the
    combination of Fluzone, a high-dose flu vaccine, and URI caused Mrs. Halverson to develop SIRS,
    which strained her heart and caused cardiac arrest. According to Dr. Murphy, Mrs. Halverson’s
    cardiac arrest occurred as the natural progression of her preexisting heart conditions. Dr. Murphy
    based this opinion on the statistical likelihood that Mrs. Halverson would die within five years of
    being diagnosed with congestive heart failure. However, the Federal Circuit has rejected
    arguments put forth by petitioners which rely heavily on statistical likelihood as proof of causation.
    See, e.g., Boatmon v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    941 F.3d 1351
    , 1363 (Fed. Cir. 2019)
    (rejecting petitioners’ theory due to expert’s reliance on statistics that a brainstem defect is found
    in 50-70% of SIDS cases, and that, given these statistics, the vaccinee likely had a defect);
    
    Knudsen, 35 F.3d at 550
    (rejecting the government’s alternative cause theory based on “[t]he bare
    statistical fact that there are more reported cases of viral encephalopathies than there are reported
    cases of DTP encephalopathies”). While I acknowledge that the burden here lies with petitioner
    rather than respondent, the Federal Circuit has rejected arguments relying on statistics from both
    petitioners and respondent. Based on the totality of the circumstances, I find petitioner’s expert
    more persuasive.
    Based on the above, petitioner has proffered preponderant evidence that Mrs. Halverson’s
    death was not the natural progression of her heart disease, but rather a combination of the Fluzone
    and her upper respiratory infection that significantly aggravated her preexisting heart disease,
    resulting in her death.
    G.     Respondent’s Burden to Show Unrelated Factors
    Because petitioner has established a prima facie case of causation/significant aggravation,
    he is entitled to compensation unless respondent can show by the preponderance of the evidence
    that Mrs. Halverson’s injury was caused by a factor unrelated to the Fluzone vaccine. Deribeaux
    ex rel. Deribeaux v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    717 F.3d 1363
    , 1367 (Fed. Cir. 2013) (citing
    § 13(a)(1)(B)). To meet this standard, respondent must “present sufficient evidence to prove that
    the alternative factor was the sole substantial factor in bringing about the injury.” 
    Id. at 1368.
    The
    Vaccine Act limits the scope of unrelated factors by excluding any “idiopathic, unexplained,
    unknown, hypothetical, or undocumentable cause, factor, injury, illness or condition.” §
    13(a)(2)(A). “In other words, alternative causes that are ‘idiopathic, unexplained, unknown,
    38
    hypothetical or undocumentable’ cannot overcome a petitioner’s prima facie case.” Doe v. Sec’y
    of Health & Human Servs., 
    601 F.3d 1349
    , 1357 (Fed. Cir. 2010) (quoting § 13(a)(2)(A)).
    As discussed above, respondent submitted that Mrs. Halverson’s death was the result of
    her preexisting heart disease, which predisposed her to sudden cardiac death. Dr. Rose testified
    that he had “no theory to explain her death.” Tr. 299. Dr. Murphy conceded that he would not have
    vaccinated her if she was his patient but would have waited a week and reexamined her before
    giving the vaccination. While refusing to concede Fluzone’s role in Mrs. Halverson’s death, Dr.
    Murphy agreed that he could not parse out among her comorbidities and Fluzone any one thing to
    attribute her death to. Having determined that Mrs. Halverson’s death was the result of a significant
    aggravation of her cardiac condition by Fluzone rather than the natural progression of her
    condition, I find that respondent has failed to demonstrate that Mrs. Halverson’s preexisting heart
    disease was the sole substantial factor in bringing about her death on January 13, 2014.
    VII. Conclusion
    I extend my sympathies to petitioner for the loss of his wife. Upon careful evaluation of all
    of the evidence submitted in this matter, I find that petitioner has established entitlement to
    compensation under the Vaccine Act. Accordingly, this case shall proceed to damages. In matters
    such as this one, where the vaccinee is deceased at the time of a compensation award, the estate
    can recover the death benefit of $250,000 as well as “pain and suffering and emotional distress
    from the time of the injury until the date of death.” Tembenis v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    
    733 F.3d 1190
    , 1193 (Fed. Cir. 2013) (citing Zatuchni v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    516 F.3d 1312
    , 1318-19 (Fed. Cir. 2008) (discussing damages available to a petitioner’s estate where
    the petitioner had established vaccine-related injuries and vaccine-caused death).
    IT IS SO ORDERED.
    s/ Mindy Michaels Roth
    Mindy Michaels Roth
    Special Master
    39