Germaine v. Secretary of Health and Human Services ( 2021 )


Menu:
  • In the United States Court of Federal Claims
    OFFICE OF SPECIAL MASTERS
    *********************
    SCOTT GERMAINE, Individually *
    and on behalf of his minor grandson, *              No. 18-800V
    C.G.,                                *              Special Master Christian J. Moran
    *
    Petitioner,       *
    *              Filed: March 9, 2020
    v.                                   *
    *              entitlement; rotavirus vaccine;
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH                  *              intussusception.
    AND HUMAN SERVICES,                  *
    *
    Respondent.       *
    *********************
    Sean F. Greenwood, Greenwood Law Firm, Houston, TX, for petitioner;
    Ryan D. Pyles, United States Dep’t of Justice, Washington, DC, for respondent.
    PUBLISHED DECISION DENYING COMPENSATION*
    Scott Germaine filed a petition for compensation under the National
    Childhood Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, 42 U.S.C. § 300aa—10 to 34
    (2012), alleging that the third dose of the rotavirus (RotaTeq) vaccine caused his
    grandson, C.G., to suffer intussusception. Pet., filed June 6, 2018. Because Mr.
    Germaine has not established a persuasive medical theory connecting the third
    dose of the RotaTeq vaccine with intussusception, Mr. Germaine is not entitled to
    compensation.
    *  The E-Government Act of 2002, Pub. L. No. 107-347, 
    116 Stat. 2899
    , 2913 (Dec. 17,
    2002), requires that the Court post this decision on its website. Anyone will be able to access
    this decision via the internet (https://www.uscfc.uscourts.gov/aggregator/sources/7). Pursuant to
    Vaccine Rule 18(b), the parties have 14 days to file a motion proposing redaction of medical
    information or other information described in 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-12(d)(4). Any redactions
    ordered by the special master will appear in the document posted on the website.
    Facts
    The parties do not dispute C.G.’s medical history. Pet’r’s Br., filed Mar. 18,
    2020, at 1-3; Resp’t’s Br., filed June 9, 2020, at 2-3. Thus, the recitation of facts
    will be abbreviated to include only the most relevant events.
    C.G. was born on March 7, 2016, without any serious issues. Exhibit 2 at 4.
    At a two-month well-baby visit, C.G. was assessed as normal and received the first
    dose of a rotavirus vaccine in addition to other routine vaccinations. Exhibit 3 at
    37-39. C.G. was again assessed as normal during his four-month well-baby visit,
    where he received the second dose of a rotavirus vaccine among others. Id. at 33-
    36.
    C.G. returned to his pediatrician on August 9, 2016, and Mr. Germaine
    reported that C.G. was experiencing congestion, cough, wheezing, rattling in chest,
    nasal discharge, fussiness, and fever. Id. at 31-32. The pediatrician diagnosed
    C.G. with acute bronchiolitis and prescribed a medication to treat it.
    At his six-month well-baby visit on September 7, 2016, C.G. was no longer
    suffering from bronchiolitis symptoms and assessed as normal. Id. at 27-29. C.G.
    received the third dose of a rotavirus vaccine with his other regularly scheduled
    vaccines. Mr. Germaine alleges this dose harmed C.G.
    Eighteen days later, on September 25, 2016, Mr. Germaine attested that C.G.
    began vomiting and experiencing diarrhea. Exhibit 1 ¶ 4. Mr. Germaine suspected
    that C.G. may have had a “stomach flu” because he and another member of the
    household had a “stomach flu” earlier that week. Id. After C.G.’s diarrhea turned
    bloody, Mr. Germaine realized that something was seriously wrong with C.G. and
    took C.G. to the emergency room that afternoon. Id.
    At the emergency department, the attending physician ran a gastrointestinal
    panel on C.G. and the results came back as a positive for C. difficile toxin and
    norovirus but negative for adenovirus and e. coli. 1 Exhibit 4 at 15. The physician
    diagnosed C.G. with vomiting/diarrhea, dehydration, and bloody diarrhea. Id. at 6.
    1 In his brief, Mr. Germaine asserted that the Secretary is arguing that C.G. developed
    intussusception due to the adenovirus. Pet’r’s Br. at 14. This assertion appears to be a clerical
    mistake because Mr. Germaine correctly stated later in his brief that the Secretary is arguing that
    norovirus caused C.G.’s intussusception. Pet’r’s Br. at 16. The Secretary does not appear to
    have stated that C.G. suffered from an adenovirus infection, let alone that the adenovirus caused
    C.G.’s intussusception, in any of his filings.
    2
    C.G. was transferred to another hospital with the specialists needed for a higher-
    level of care. Id. at 5.
    After his transfer, an ultrasound verified intussusception as the cause of
    C.G.’s gastrointestinal symptoms. Exhibit 5 at 9-10. Doctors unsuccessfully
    attempted to reduce C.G.’s bowels by catheter. Id. at 11. At this time, the treating
    physician advised Mr. Germaine that C.G. would need surgery to address the
    intussusception. Id. The physician admitted C.G. and scheduled his surgery for
    the next day. Id.
    Intussusception occurs when the bowls either prolapse or telescope in on
    itself. Exhibit 6 at 5; exhibit A at 3. This unnatural movement of the bowls results
    in an intestinal obstruction causing symptoms of severe stomach pain, vomiting,
    and currant jelly stool. Young children under the age of two most frequently suffer
    from intussusception.
    On September 26, 2016, the surgeon confirmed C.G.’s intussusception,
    removed a section of bowel, and performed an incidental appendectomy. Exhibit 5
    at 31-33. On September 29, 2016, C.G. was discharged with final diagnoses of
    intussusception and status-post laparoscopic appendectomy. Id. at 71-73.
    At a follow-up with his pediatrician on October 5, 2016, the pediatrician
    recorded the active problem as, “Intussusception - Per dad no rotateq to be given
    due to emergency surgery from side effect.”2 Exhibit 3 at 25. The pediatrician did
    not comment on the vaccine, and his assessment only stated, “Intussusception –
    recovery.” Id.
    Mr. Germaine brought C.G. for a post-surgical follow-up on October 18,
    2016, reporting that C.G. was eating regularly, having normal bowel movements,
    having no pain, and was not having any fever. Exhibit 5 at 123-24. The physician
    noted that C.G. was doing well and that he would only need to return as needed.
    In the most recently filed records, C.G. suffered from an ear infection in
    March 2018 but was well otherwise. Exhibit 26 at 16-18.
    2  While the medical record states that C.G.’s father conveyed the information about the
    RotaTeq vaccine, the record also states that C.G. was referred by his grandparents for this visit.
    It is possible that C.G.’s grandfather actually accompanied him during the October 5, 2016 visit.
    3
    Procedural History
    Mr. Germaine presented an off-Table claim that the third dose of a rotavirus
    vaccine caused his grandson, C.G, to develop intussusception. Pet., filed June 6,
    2018, at 1. Soon thereafter, Mr. Germaine confirmed submission of all medical
    records by filing a statement of completion.
    Respondent opposed compensation. In the Rule 4 report, respondent argued
    that Mr. Germaine had not presented a medical theory to support intussusception
    following the third dose of the rotavirus vaccine, and that C.G. had a documented
    norovirus infection prior to his intussusception. Resp’t’s Rep., filed Oct. 1, 2018,
    at 4-5. At a status conference to discuss the report, Mr. Germaine proposed filing
    an expert report from a gastroenterologist to provide a medical theory. Order,
    issued Dec. 7, 2018. Finalized expert instructions subsequently issued. Order,
    issued Dec. 28, 2018.
    On April 9, 2019, Mr. Germaine filed an expert report from Dr. John
    Santoro. Dr. Santoro noted that while the exact mechanism for the rotavirus
    vaccine to cause intussusception is unknown, epidemiological evidence supported
    a connection between rotavirus vaccines and intussusception. Exhibit 6 at 6-9.
    On July 9, 2019, the Secretary filed an expert report from Dr. Chris
    Liacouras. Dr. Liacouras challenged Dr. Santoro’s interpretation of the
    epidemiological evidence and argued that a norovirus infection caused C.G.’s
    intussusception. Exhibit A at 5-6.
    Mr. Germaine filed a supplemental expert report from Dr. Santoro on
    November 14, 2019. Dr. Santoro responded to Dr. Liacouras by reiterating his
    prior positions. Exhibit 22. In a status report, the Secretary stated that he did not
    intend to file a responsive expert report. Resp’t’s Status Rep., filed Dec. 12, 2019.
    Since the expert report phase had concluded, the undersigned outlined the content
    for briefing. Order, issued Feb. 4, 2020.
    On March 18, 2020, Mr. Germaine filed his brief and moved for a decision
    on the record. The Secretary filed his responsive brief on June 9, 2020. Mr.
    Germaine filed a reply brief without any substantive arguments but included a
    supplemental report from Dr. Santoro that contained substantive arguments.
    Exhibit 29. The Secretary stated via informal communications that he considered
    the briefing to be closed and did not believe that Dr. Santoro’s most recent
    supplemental report raised any new issues.
    4
    After reviewing these submissions, the undersigned wanted to hear oral
    testimony from the experts. Order, filed Sep. 2, 2020. However, Mr. Germaine
    learned that his expert, Dr. Santoro, had died and Mr. Germaine decided to submit
    the case on the papers without retaining another expert. Pet’r’s Status Rep., filed
    Nov. 2, 2020. Thereafter, Mr. Germaine filed another motion for ruling on the
    record on February 4, 2021. The Secretary responded on February 17, 2021. Mr.
    Germaine did not file a reply within the time the Vaccine Rules permit.
    This matter is now ready for adjudication.
    Standards for Finding Entitlement
    A petitioner is required to establish his case by a preponderance of the
    evidence. 42 U.S.C. § 300aa–13(1)(a). The preponderance of the evidence
    standard requires a “trier of fact to believe that the existence of a fact is more
    probable than its nonexistence before [he] may find in favor of the party who has
    the burden to persuade the judge of the fact's existence.” Moberly v. Sec'y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    592 F.3d 1315
    , 1322 n.2 (Fed. Cir. 2010) (citations
    omitted). Proof of medical certainty is not required. Bunting v. Sec'y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    931 F.2d 867
    , 873 (Fed. Cir. 1991).
    Distinguishing between “preponderant evidence” and “medical certainty” is
    important because a special master should not impose an evidentiary burden that is
    too high. Andreu v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    569 F.3d 1367
    , 1379-80
    (Fed. Cir. 2009) (reversing special master's decision that petitioners were not
    entitled to compensation); see also Lampe v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    219 F.3d 1357
     (Fed. Cir. 2000); Hodges v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    9 F.3d 958
    , 961 (Fed. Cir. 1993) (disagreeing with dissenting judge's contention that the
    special master confused preponderance of the evidence with medical certainty).
    Petitioners bear a burden “to show by preponderant evidence that the
    vaccination brought about [the vaccinee’s] injury by providing: (1) a medical
    theory causally connecting the vaccination and the injury; (2) a logical sequence of
    cause and effect showing that the vaccination was the reason for the injury; and (3)
    a showing of a proximate temporal relationship between vaccination and injury.”
    Althen v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    418 F.3d 1274
    , 1278 (Fed. Cir. 2005).
    If a petitioner establishes a prima facie case, the Secretary can rebut by
    establishing an alternative cause of the petitioner’s injury by a preponderance of
    the evidence. Snyder/Harris v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., 
    553 F. App'x 994
    ,
    999 (Fed. Cir. 2014). A special master may also consider the evidence of an
    5
    alternative cause when evaluating petitioner’s prima facie case. Stone v. Sec'y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    676 F.3d 1373
    , 1380 (Fed. Cir. 2012).
    Analysis
    A critical issue is whether Mr. Germaine can establish a medical theory
    connecting the third dose of a rotavirus vaccine to intussusception. The Secretary
    also offers a norovirus infection as an alternative cause of C.G.’s intussusception.
    As background for analyzing the rotavirus vaccine at issue, the history of
    rotavirus vaccines helps to understand which rotavirus vaccine(s) the medical
    literature is addressing. See Carda v. Sec’y of Health and Human Servs., No. 14-
    191V, 
    2017 WL 6887368
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Nov. 16, 2017). The first rotavirus
    vaccine, RotaShield (RV4), was approved in 1998 (but then withdrawn in 1999)
    and was administered in three doses. 3 The second rotavirus vaccine, RotaTeq
    (RV5), was approved in 2006 and is administered in three doses. 4 The third
    rotavirus vaccine, Rotarix (RV1), was approved in 2008 and is administered in two
    doses. Exhibit 9 (Rotarix Package Insert).
    The Secretary considered the epidemiological literature cited in this case
    when adding the first two doses of the available rotavirus vaccines to the Vaccine
    Table. Resp’t’s Br. at 9 n.9 (citing National Vaccine Injury Compensation
    Program: Addition of Intussusception as Injury for Rotavirus Vaccines to the
    Vaccine Injury Table, 
    80 Fed. Reg. 35848
     (June 23, 2015) (codified at 
    42 C.F.R. § 100.3
    )). The Secretary separately discussed the evidence supporting adding the
    RotaTeq and Rotarix vaccines to the Vaccine Table. 
    80 Fed. Reg. 35848
    .
    Since the rotavirus vaccines differ, it is relevant to determine which
    rotavirus vaccine C.G. received. Broekelschen v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs.,
    
    618 F.3d 1339
    , 1345 (Fed. Cir. 2010) (“petitioner must provide a reputable
    medical or scientific explanation that pertains specifically to the petitioner's case”);
    Davis v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 07-451V, 
    2010 WL 1444056
    , at
    *11 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Mar. 16, 2010) (finding that petitioner must establish that
    3Rotavirus Vaccine (RotaShield®) and Intussusception, Center for Disease
    Control and Prevention, https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd-vac/rotavirus/vac-
    rotashield-historical.htm# (concurrently filed as court exhibit 1001).
    4 RotaTeq Package Insert, Merck & Co., Inc.,
    https://www.merck.com/product/usa/pi circulars/r/rotateq/rotateq pi.pdf
    (concurrently filed as court exhibit 1002).
    6
    information about one vaccine is transferable to another vaccine), mot. for rev.
    denied, 
    94 Fed. Cl. 53
     (2010), aff'd, 
    420 F. App'x 973
     (Fed. Cir. 2011). While the
    vaccine administration records do not specify which brand of rotavirus vaccine
    C.G. received, the person accompanying C.G. at the October 5, 2016 appointment
    reported that C.G. should receive no RotaTeq vaccinations. Exhibit 3 at 25. It can
    also be inferred that C.G. received RotaTeq because RotaTeq was the only three-
    dose rotavirus vaccine being offered during the relevant time period.
    Having found that C.G. received the RotaTeq vaccine, the undersigned turns
    to whether Mr. Germaine has established a medical theory connecting the third
    dose of the RotaTeq vaccine and intussusception.
    A.      Althen Prong One – Medical Theory
    1.     Arguments and Evidence concerning a Medical Theory
    Mr. Germaine’s attempt to meet his burden of proof to establish that the
    third dose of the RotaTeq vaccine can cause intussusception relies upon two
    different methods.5 First, Mr. Germaine supports his position by offering Dr.
    Santoro’s opinion to propose a medical theory. Second, Mr. Germaine offers
    epidemiologic evidence that purportedly shows an increased risk of intussusception
    following the third dose of rotavirus vaccine.
    For a biological mechanism on how the third dose of the RotaTeq vaccine
    can cause intussusception, Mr. Germaine is not clear. Mr. Germaine recognizes
    that the mechanism is unknown but also proposes that intussusception is caused by
    an inflammatory response in the lymphatic tissue or intestines from the replication
    5  In his brief, Mr. Germaine presented contradictory positions on the evidentiary standard
    of a medical theory. Mr. Germaine initially presented the preponderance of the evidence
    standard for a medical theory from Althen but then asserted that a medical theory need only be
    biologically plausible. Compare Pet’r’s Br. at 4 with Pet’r’s Br. at 5 (citing Andreu v. Sec’y of
    Health and Human Services, 
    569 F.3d 1367
    , 1375 (Fed. Cir. 2009)). However, Dr. Santoro more
    clearly stated his opinions about the medical theory to “a reasonable degree of medical and
    scientific probability” and to “a high degree of medical certainty.” Exhibit 6 at 11. Thus, despite
    the discrepancy, Mr. Germain appears to be seeking to establish his medical theory in line with
    the level of proof confirmed by the Federal Circuit. Boatmon v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    941 F.3d 1351
    , 1360 (Fed. Cir. 2019) (holding that a “plausible” medical theory did not
    satisfy petitioner’s burden of proof); see also Kottenstette v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 15-1016V, 
    2020 WL 953484
    , at *3 (Fed. Cl. Feb. 12, 2020) (deeming the “biologic
    credibility” standard as akin to the invalid “plausibility” standard and striking it down in
    accordance with Boatmon), appeal docketed No. 2020-2282 (Fed. Cir. Sep. 17, 2020).
    7
    of the rotavirus. Pet’r’s Br. at 8 (citing exhibit 10 at 4), 12-13 (citing exhibit 15 at
    7).6
    The Secretary agrees that the biological mechanism is unknown but does not
    address Mr. Germaine’s proposed mechanism of “inflammatory response.”
    Resp’t’s Br. at 8-9; exhibit A at 5. Rather than focus on the mechanism, the
    Secretary noted that the relationship between some (but not all) doses of rotavirus
    vaccines and intussusception has been established by epidemiology. Resp’t’s Br.
    at 8-9. When amending the Vaccine Table, the Secretary believed that the time
    ranges for intussusception following the first two doses of the rotavirus vaccines
    (1-21 days) were “generous.” 80 Fed. Reg. at 35848. On the broadest level, by
    placing some doses of the rotavirus vaccines on the Vaccine Table, the Secretary
    has implicitly acknowledged that a biological mechanism of rotavirus vaccines
    causing intussusception exists in some circumstances. However, a biological
    mechanism is not the end, because the Vaccine Table distinguishes between the
    rotavirus vaccine doses based on epidemiology. The undersigned finds that Mr.
    Germaine has not carried his burden of proof based on the biological mechanism
    alone and now looks to the epidemiological evidence.
    Beyond proposing a biological mechanism, Mr. Germaine cites
    epidemiological evidence to support a connection between the third dose of the
    RotaTeq vaccine and intussusception. While the undersigned has reviewed and
    considered all the medical literature, the following articles are the most substantive
    evaluations of the relevant issue. The list of articles summarized below does not
    include studies solely focused on the (two-dose) Rotarix vaccine. See Appendix 1.
    Mr. Germaine has not presented any persuasive explanation for why studies about
    a two-dose rotavirus vaccine inform an analysis of a vaccine given in three doses.
    Thus, this literature focused solely on the Rotarix vaccine has little impact on the
    issue of adverse effects following the third dose of the RotaTeq vaccine. See
    Kottenstette v. Sec'y of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-1016V, 
    2020 WL 953484
    ,
    at *5 (Fed. Cl. Feb. 12, 2020) (studies related to one formulation of a vaccine
    cannot automatically be attributed to a different formulation of the vaccine).
    6 To support this mechanism, Mr. Germaine also cites, without discussion, exhibits 7, 10,
    11. Pet’r’s Br. at 8 n.2. These citations do not add any support to Mr. Germaine’s proposed
    mechanism. Exhibit 7 is Dr. Santoro’s curriculum vitae, exhibit 10 (Patel) was already cited in
    the body of Mr. Germaine’s brief, and exhibit 11 (Greenberg) discusses Patel but does not
    address a biological mechanism.
    8
    a)     Weintraub (exhibit 12)
    Weintraub accessed medical records from several integrated health care
    organizations to identify intussusception after rotavirus vaccinations. Weintraub
    searched for occurrences of intussusception in the medical records and followed
    patients with weekly updated records to track any adverse events. Weintraub
    compared the risks between the (two-dose) Rotarix vaccine (over 200,000 doses)
    and the (three-dose) RotaTeq vaccine (nearly 1.3 million doses). Exhibit 12 at 1.
    Weintraub reached different conclusions for the different vaccines.
    Following the Rotarix vaccine, risk of intussusception increased significantly. But,
    following the RotaTeq vaccine, there was no significant increased risk of
    intussusception. Id. at 6-7. Qualifying the conclusion about Rotarix vaccine,
    Weintraub noted that the increased risk of intussusception could be a result of
    chance due to the small number of intussusception cases. Id. at 7.
    Mr. Germaine focused entirely on Weintraub’s conclusion about the Rotarix
    vaccine without addressing the qualification that the increased risk of
    intussusception may be entirely a result of chance. Pet’r’s Br. at 6-7. Moreover,
    Mr. Germaine does not even mention Weintraub’s conclusion that there was no
    significant increased risk of intussusception following the RotaTeq vaccine, the
    vaccine relevant to this case.
    b)     Yih (exhibit 13, A-4)
    Yih used data from three American health insurance carriers to study
    instances of intussusception. Yih identified the instances through procedural and
    diagnostic codes. Medical record review then confirmed the rotavirus vaccination
    and the intussusception events.
    Yih primarily concluded that “there was no significant increase in reporting
    after dose 2 or dose 3 [of the RotaTeq vaccine].” Exhibit 13 at 1. Yih did qualify
    that conclusion adding that “an increased risk associated with [the second and
    third] doses cannot be ruled out, given the overlapping confidence intervals of the
    risk estimates for doses 1, 2, and 3.” Id. at 7.
    Mr. Germaine appears to have incorrectly characterized the primary
    conclusion in Yih relating to the third dose of rotavirus vaccine stating that,
    “nearly all the results … yielded a statistically significant increase in attributable
    risk of intussusception after rotavirus infection.” Pet’r’s Br. at 12. As noted
    above, Yih found no significant increased risk of intussusception following the
    third dose of RotaTeq vaccine. While Mr. Germaine highlighted that Yih noted “a
    major challenge in studying rotavirus vaccines and intussusception is the strong
    9
    confounding effect of age,” exhibit 13 at 2, the Secretary countered that Yih
    accounted for age in the statistical analysis. Resp’t’s Br. at 10-11 (citing exhibit 13
    at 3-4).
    c)     Haber (exhibit 8, A-7)
    Haber is a statistical analysis of intussusception events reported to the
    Vaccine Adverse Event Report Systems (VAERS). Haber analyzed
    intussusception events related to the three-dose rotavirus vaccine, RotaTeq, and to
    the two-dose rotavirus vaccine, Rotarix. Haber focused on determining whether
    the incidence of intussusception increased after a rotavirus vaccine, how many
    days after, and after which doses. Exhibit 8 at 1.
    Haber concluded that “there was no significant increase in reporting after
    dose 2 or dose 3 [of the RotaTeq vaccine].” Id. Haber concluded that there only
    was only a small increase in intussusception events for three to six days after the
    first dose of the RotaTeq vaccine.7
    Mr. Germaine concedes that the VAERS data analyzed in Haber is “not as
    reliable as controlled studies,” but asserts that the data shows a “consistent
    relationship between rotavirus vaccine and intussusception.” Pet’r’s Br. at 7. Mr.
    Germaine does not address Haber’s conclusion that there was no significant
    increase in intussusception after the third dose of the RotaTeq vaccine.
    d)     Koch (exhibit 14, A-6)
    Koch is a systemic literature review and meta-analysis of studies on the
    relationship between rotavirus vaccines and intussusception. Koch used the data
    underlying these studies to calculate the risk of intussusception from rotavirus
    vaccine. Some of the studies underlying Koch’s analysis were cited by the parties:
    Haber (exhibit 8), Patel (exhibit 10), Yih (exhibit 13), and Escolano (exhibit A-5).
    Koch concluded that “there is no increase in risk after the third dose of the
    [RotaTeq] vaccine.” Exhibit 14 at 6. Koch does not list any attributable risk for
    the third dose in a table of calculations. Id., Table 2. In the “Key Messages”
    section, Koch does not mention any risk of intussusception from the third dose of
    the RotaTeq vaccine. Id. at 7.
    7  Because there were insufficient numbers of intussusception events reported after the
    Rotarix vaccine, Haber was unable to conduct a statistical analysis and could only offer a
    descriptive analysis.
    10
    Mr. Germaine apparently disputes Koch’s conclusion stating that Koch
    “found an increase in risk of intussusception after all three doses of the [rotavirus]
    vaccination.” Pet’r’s Br. at 12 (citing exhibit 14 at 5). Mr. Germaine does not
    explain why Koch’s conclusion is incorrect or how it can co-exist with his own
    conclusion. From Mr. Germaine’s citation, he may be referencing Koch’s
    statement that “the pooled estimate of the [relative risk] after the third dose of RV5
    was 1.14 [0.75; 1.74].” Exhibit 14 at 5. Neither Mr. Germain nor Dr. Santoro
    explain the significance of this quotation or anything other statistical calculations
    made by Koch.
    The undersigned finds that the weight of epidemiological evidence does not
    support the third dose of RotaTeq vaccine causing intussusception for any period
    of time following vaccination, let alone eighteen days following vaccination.
    2.    Evaluation of Evidence concerning the Medical Theory
    The weight of epidemiological evidence does not support the third dose of
    RotaTeq vaccine causing intussusception for any period of time following
    vaccination, let alone eighteen days following vaccination. For a lengthy
    discussion of the value of epidemiologic studies in the Vaccine Program, see Tullio
    v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-51V, 
    2019 WL 7580149
    , at *5-8 (Fed.
    Cl. Spec. Mstr. Dec. 19, 2019), mot. for rev. denied, 
    149 Fed. Cl. 448
    , 475 (2020).
    Mr. Germaine admitted that the biological mechanism for rotavirus vaccine
    causing intussusception is unknown and presented minimal evidence to support a
    mechanism. The undersigned finds that Mr. Germaine has not established a
    persuasive theory by a preponderance of the evidence and, thus, he cannot
    establish all the elements to prevail on his claim.
    B.     Alternative Causation
    The Secretary argued in the alternative that C.G. developed intussusception
    because of his norovirus infection. Resp’t’s Br. at 16. Mr. Germaine admitted that
    he and another member of the household were sick with a gastrointestinal illness
    days prior to C.G. developing diarrhea and vomiting. Exhibit 1 ¶ 4. C.G. tested
    positive for norovirus on the day that he developed his symptoms. Exhibit 4 at 15.
    The Secretary asserted that norovirus has been associated with severe
    gastrointestinal symptoms, including intussusception. Respt’s Br. at 17 (citing
    exhibit A-10 (Petragnani) at 8, exhibit A-11 (Okimoto) at 3); exhibit A at 4.
    Addressing the Okimoto study, Dr. Santoro noted that few of the patients with
    intussusception also had norovirus (4 of 44) and suggested that even this
    correlation may be exaggerated since norovirus is a very common infection.
    11
    Exhibit 22 at 4. Dr. Santoro emphasized that the adenovirus in the Okimoto study
    showed a much higher correlation with intussusception (22 of 44) than norovirus.
    
    Id.
     Mr. Germaine critiqued the literature review in Petragnani for including a
    majority of data about patients five years or older, not stating a definition of
    intussusception to confirm diagnosis, and finding only four papers (of 176
    reviewed) that mentioned intussusception. Pet’r’s Br. at 16-17.
    Because Mr. Germaine has not carried his burden regarding the elements of
    his case, the burden has not shifted to the Secretary to present an alternative cause
    for C.G.’s intussusception. LaLonde v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    746 F.3d 1334
    , 1340 (Fed. Cir. 2014). Accordingly, the undersigned reaches no finding as
    to whether norovirus can cause intussusception.
    Conclusion
    Mr. Germaine has not established that he is entitled to compensation on
    behalf of C.G. The Clerk’s Office is directed to enter judgment in accord with this
    decision unless a motion for review is filed.
    IT IS SO ORDERED.
    s/Christian J. Moran
    Christian J. Moran
    Special Master
    12
    Appendix 1:
    Medical literature that substantively analyzes
    the three-dose RotaTeq (RV5) vaccine
    Exhibit #                                   Citation
    Penina Haber et al., Intussusception After Rotavirus Vaccines
    8, A-7     Reported to US VAERS, 2006–2012, 131 Pediatrics 1042 (2013).
    Eric Weintraub et al., Risk of Intussusception after Monovalent
    12       Rotavirus Vaccination, 370 New Engl. J. Med. 513 (2014).
    W. Katherine Yih, Intussusception Risk after Rotavirus Vaccination
    13, A-4     in U.S. Infants, 370 New Engl. J. Med. 503 (2014).
    Judith Koch, The Risk of Intussusception after Rotavirus
    14, A-6     Vaccination- a systemic literature review and meta-analysis, 114
    Dtsch Arztebl. Int. 255 (2017).
    Catherine Yen, Rotavirus vaccination and intussusception – Science,
    surveillance, and safety: A review of evidence and recommendations
    15       for future research priorities in low and middle income countries, 12
    Hum. Vacc. & Immunotherapeutics 2580 (2016).
    Stephan Foster, Rotavirus Vaccine and Intussusception, 12 J. Pedia.
    21       Pharmacological Therapeutics 4 (2007).
    Sylvie Escolano et al., Intussusception risk after RotaTeq
    vaccination: Evaluation from worldwide spontaneous reporting data
    A-5
    using a self-controlled case series approach, 33 Vaccine 1017 (2015).
    Guadalupe Quintero-Ochoa et al., Viral agents of gastroenteritis and
    their correlation with clinical symptoms in rotavirus-vaccinated
    A-9
    children, 73 Infect., Genet. & Evol. 190 (2019).
    13
    Appendix 2:
    Medical literature that does not substantively analyze
    the three-dose RotaTeq (RV5) vaccine
    Citation                            Vaccine Analyzed
    Exhibit #
    (if any)
    Rotarix® Package Insert, GlaxoSmithKline                  Two-dose Rotarix
    9
    (2019).                                                       vaccine
    Manish Patel et al., Intussusception Risk and
    Health Benefits of Rotavirus Vaccination in               Two-dose Rotarix
    10
    Mexico and Brazil, 364 New Engl. J. Med.                      vaccine
    2283 (2011).
    Harry Greenberg, Rotavirus Vaccination and
    Two-dose Rotarix
    11        Intussusception — Act Two, 364 New Engl. J.
    vaccine
    Med. 2354 (2011).
    Kelly Warfield et al., Rotavirus Infection
    Enhances Lipopolysacchande-Induced                           Three-dose
    16
    Intussusception in a Mouse Model, 80 J.                   Rotashield vaccine
    Virology 12377 (2006).
    Christine Robinson et al., Evaluation of
    Anatomic Changes in Young Children with
    Three-dose
    17        Natural Rotavirus Infection: Is Intussusception
    Rotashield vaccine
    Biologically Plausible?, 189 J. Infect. Disease
    1382 (2004).
    Shinichiro Hirokawa, Ileoileal Intussusception
    and Ileal Stricture Associated with Necrotizing
    18                                                                          none
    Enterocolitis in a Premature Infant: Report of a
    Case, 31 Surg. Today 1097 (2001).
    Emrah Aydin, Intussusception in a preterm
    19                                                                          none
    newborn, 59 Pedia. & Neonatology 312 (2018).
    Jeannette Guarner et al., Intestinal
    Intussusception Associated With Adenovirus
    20                                                                          none
    Infection in Mexican Children, 120 Am. J.
    Clin. Pathol. 845 (2003). 8
    8Mr. Germaine submitted an incomplete version of this exhibit that contains little text.
    Upon review of the complete article, Guarner discusses an association between adenovirus and
    14
    Jae Hyun Park et al., Intussusception
    23        Associated With Pseudomembranous Colitis,                           none
    46 J. Pedia. Gastro. & Nutrition 470 (2008).9
    Anthony Manning, Intussusception in Infants
    and Children in Pediatric Gastrointestinal and
    A-1                                                                            none
    Liver Disease (Robert Wyllie et al. eds., 5th ed.
    2016) at 607.
    H.M.L. Carty, Paediatric emergencies: non-
    A-2        traumatic abdominal emergencies, 12 Europ.                          none
    Radiol. 2835 (2002).
    Shobhit Jain et al., Child Intussusception,
    A-3        NCBI Bookshelf, National Library of                                 none
    Medicine, National Institutes of Health (2019).
    Z.A. Marsh et al., The unwelcome houseguest:
    secondary household transmission of
    A-8                                                                            none
    norovirus, 146 J. Epidemiol. Infect. 159
    (2018).
    Mariska Petrignani et al., Chronic sequelae and
    severe complications of norovirus infection: A
    A-10                                                                           none
    systematic review of literature, 105 J. Clin.
    Virology 1 (2018).
    Satoshi Okimoto et al., Association of viral
    isolates from stool samples with
    A-11                                                                           none
    intussusception in children, 15 Int. J. Infect.
    Diseases e641 (2011).
    David Galloway et al., Infectious Diarrhea,
    Clostridium Difficile in Pediatric
    A-12                                                                           none
    Gastrointestinal and Liver Disease (Robert
    Wyllie et al. eds., 5th ed. 2016) at 458.
    Priya Farooq et al., Pseudomembranous colitis,
    A-13                                                                           none
    61 Disease-a-Month 181 (2015).
    Evon Zoog et al., Adult Intussusception
    A-14                                                                           none
    Caused by Ileocecal Clostridillm difficile
    intussusception but does not address any vaccines. A complete copy of the Guarner article is
    filed concurrently as court exhibit 1003.
    9 While Mr. Germaine cited the first author of exhibit 23 to be J. Kim, the first author
    actually appears to be Jae Hyun Park.
    15
    Pseudomembranous Colitis, 82 Am. Surg.
    E153 (2016).
    Gé-Ann Kuiper et al., Clostridium difficile
    A-15   infections in young infants: Case presentations   none
    and literature review, 10 IDCases 7 (2017).
    16