State v. Prisbrey , 2020 UT App 172 ( 2020 )


Menu:
  •                          
    2020 UT App 172
    THE UTAH COURT OF APPEALS
    STATE OF UTAH,
    Appellant,
    v.
    CLARE EUGENE PRISBREY,
    Appellee.
    Opinion
    No. 20190569-CA
    Filed December 24, 2020
    Fifth District Court, Iron County Department
    The Honorable Keith C. Barnes
    No.181500247
    Sean D. Reyes and Jeffrey D. Mann, Attorneys
    for Appellant
    Gary W. Pendleton, Attorney for Appellee
    JUDGE RYAN M. HARRIS authored this Opinion, in which
    JUDGE DAVID N. MORTENSEN concurred. JUDGE JILL M. POHLMAN
    dissented, with opinion.
    HARRIS, Judge:
    ¶1     One New Year’s Eve, Clare Eugene Prisbrey’s house
    caught fire. It took firefighters more than an hour to get the fire
    under control, and the house sustained severe damage. After
    examining the scene that night and the next day, fire officials
    came to suspect that Prisbrey had set the blaze intentionally, and
    the State later charged him with aggravated arson and filing a
    false insurance claim. At a preliminary hearing, however, the
    magistrate found no probable cause that Prisbrey had committed
    those crimes, and declined to bind the case over for trial. The
    State appeals that determination, and we affirm.
    State v. Prisbrey
    BACKGROUND 1
    ¶2      On December 31, 2017, Prisbrey and his girlfriend
    (Girlfriend) were together at Prisbrey’s house, celebrating the
    holiday. A few weeks earlier, Prisbrey had decorated his living
    room (the great room) with Christmas decorations, including a
    miniature Christmas village—a collection of decorative ceramic
    houses arranged on foam blocks, wood, and synthetic snow—set
    up on a table against the wall. Around 9:30 that evening,
    Prisbrey lit several candles in the Christmas village display and,
    later, around 10:00 p.m., he and Girlfriend opened a bottle of
    sparkling grape juice and watched New Year’s Eve fireworks
    displays happening in “different time zones.”
    ¶3     A few minutes later, Prisbrey and Girlfriend left the
    house; Prisbrey explained to fire officials that he had made a
    “last minute” decision to propose marriage to Girlfriend that
    evening, and wanted to do so on the grounds of the local temple
    of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. So, a few
    minutes after 10:00 p.m., Prisbrey, Girlfriend, and Prisbrey’s dog
    got into Prisbrey’s car and made the short drive to the temple.
    No one remained in Prisbrey’s house. Before leaving the house
    for the proposal, however, Prisbrey did not extinguish the six
    candles in the Christmas village display. Girlfriend testified that
    she and Prisbrey, in the moment, did not think about it, and
    merely forgot. The State takes a different view.
    ¶4    Just as Prisbrey and Girlfriend arrived at the temple and
    pulled into a parking spot, Prisbrey received a phone call from
    one of his neighbors informing him that his house was on fire.
    Someone called the fire department at 10:22 p.m. and the local
    1. When we review a “magistrate’s bindover decision, we view
    all evidence in the light most favorable to the prosecution, draw
    all reasonable inferences in favor of the prosecution, and recite
    the facts with that standard in mind.” State v. Nihells, 
    2019 UT App 210
    , n.1, 
    457 P.3d 1121
     (quotation simplified).
    20190569-CA                     2               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    fire chief (Chief) arrived on scene at 10:29 p.m. Fire crews
    arrived at “about the same time” and began attempts to
    extinguish the fire. At that point, the fire was already “50 percent
    involved,” with “fire showing from the roof and from the
    windows.” Chief found that the fire was already “so intense”
    that he could not approach the house to turn off the gas and the
    power. Having been informed that there were no people or pets
    in the house, firefighters took “a defensive strategy,” choosing to
    fight “the fire from the outside” instead of “going inside.”
    ¶5     Firefighters began by deploying a “deck gun” from their
    fire truck, which dispenses between 500 and 1,000 gallons of
    water per minute. However, use of the deck gun “didn’t seem to
    knock the fire down,” so the fire crews used an “aerial
    apparatus” to fight the fire from above, and “that’s when [they]
    started getting control” of the fire. In total, it took the fire crews
    “just over an hour” to get the blaze contained.
    ¶6      Once the fire was contained, Chief began inspecting the
    damaged remains of the house, and noticed some “red flags”
    that he thought might indicate that the fire had been
    intentionally set. First, he thought that “the [house] appeared to
    be sparsely furnished,” in that “it just didn’t seem to have the
    stuff that a regular [house] would have in it.” Chief did not
    inventory the contents of the house, but simply developed this
    viewpoint from walking through the various rooms of the house
    after the fire. Another officer on the scene, whose identity Chief
    could not recall, told him that Prisbrey “had placed some stuff in
    a storage unit,” but Chief did not follow up on the “storage unit”
    lead, or investigate the source of the other officer’s statement or
    the extent to which it might be correct. Second, Chief noticed
    that “[t]here were some holes that were pushed through the
    wall” between the great room and the garage, about “a foot and
    a half off the floor,” and he thought those holes might have been
    intended to facilitate the spread of the fire into the garage.
    ¶7    After noticing these things, Chief spoke with Prisbrey and
    asked him if he had any idea how the fire may have started.
    20190569-CA                      3                
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    Prisbrey told Chief that, about two weeks earlier, his dog had
    tracked paint through the house, and that within the previous
    couple of days Prisbrey had used paint thinner to spot-clean the
    dog’s paint tracks. Not all paint thinners are flammable, and
    Chief did not ask Prisbrey what kind of paint thinner he used or
    specifically where he had used it. Nevertheless, this piece of
    information added to Chief’s suspicions, and based on all of the
    information he had at the time, he made the decision to notify
    the office of the Utah State Fire Marshal to ask it to investigate.
    Chief made that notification by phone call at about 11:30 p.m.
    that night. He also decided to station a fire crew at the house
    overnight to make sure the scene remained undisturbed, until
    someone from the State Fire Marshal’s office could arrive.
    ¶8     The following morning, New Year’s Day 2018, a section
    manager from the State Fire Marshal’s office (Marshal) arrived
    on the scene. Before entering the house, Marshal spoke with
    Prisbrey, who was sitting in his vehicle in front of the house.
    Prisbrey told Marshal about leaving the six candles lit in the
    Christmas village. When Marshal asked about flammable liquids
    in the house, Prisbrey informed Marshal that he had some camp
    fuel stored in a closet, and again recited the events that had
    occurred with his dog tracking paint into the house and cleaning
    it up “all over the place” with paint thinner. Like Chief, Marshal
    did not ask Prisbrey what kind of paint thinner he used or
    specifically where he had used it.
    ¶9     After interviewing Prisbrey, Marshal then inspected the
    house. He discovered “very heavy fire damage” in the great
    room near where the Christmas village display had been, and
    “very heavy” damage to the second floor of the house, such that
    it was unsafe for him to proceed up the stairs. Prisbrey also
    pointed out where his “overly dry” Christmas tree had been
    located. During his walk-through, Marshal saw signs that the
    fire may have spread quickly through the house, “more quickly
    than [he] would have expected.”
    20190569-CA                     4               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    ¶10 When Marshal went into the garage—which shared a wall
    with the great room—he noticed that the garage was
    “significantly undamaged,” either from fire or water damage. A
    water heater was located along the wall next to the great room,
    and right next to the water heater—within just a few inches—
    were stacked several one-gallon containers of gasoline, one of
    which had its top removed. Near the gas cans was a “plastic
    garbage can full of various aerosols and flammable liquids.”
    ¶11 Perhaps most significantly, Marshal noticed, along the
    wall between the garage and the great room, “two holes in the
    wall” that were located very close to where the Christmas village
    display had been (on the great room side) and where the gas
    cans were (on the garage side). Marshal asked Chief and the
    local fire marshal whether the two holes had been created
    “during suppression” by high-pressure water hoses, and Chief
    and the local marshal stated that “they didn’t make [the holes]
    with a water stream,” and that if they had, there would have
    been extensive water damage in the garage and the items in the
    garage, including the gas cans, would have been moved
    around. 2 But Marshal did not ask any of the line firefighters
    2. The dissent states that Marshal posed only “a more general
    question,” asking only “if the holes were made by the fire
    department’s suppression, and the answer was no.” See infra
    ¶ 46 note 9. But in our view, the evidence indicates otherwise.
    While Marshal, in his testimony, did describe his question in
    rather general terms, he then testified that the answer to his
    question was that crews “did not” make the hole “during
    suppression,” and that the crews “said if they had, their water
    pressure from their hose streams would have likely knocked
    over everything on the other side of the great room and moved
    the gas cans and other things around and created more water
    damage in the garage, which we had very little of.” And he later
    stated that Chief and the local fire marshal told him, in answer to
    his question, that “they didn’t make those [holes] with a water
    stream.” From context, then, it is clear that the question Marshal
    (continued…)
    20190569-CA                     5               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    whether the holes had been created after the fire had been
    controlled, when crews were searching the house for hot spots,
    and Marshal conceded on cross-examination that it was
    “[p]ossibl[e]” that the holes had been made by fire crews after
    the fire was under control. 3 When asked about the two holes,
    Prisbrey denied any knowledge of them, and Girlfriend testified
    that she had not noticed them when she was in the garage on
    New Year’s Eve before leaving for the temple, although she
    acknowledged she had not been looking for them.
    ¶12 After his inspection of the garage, Marshal “believed [he]
    had uncovered elements of an arson,” so he “backed out of the
    scene” and informed the officers on scene that they “would need
    a warrant to proceed any further.” He testified that this was “the
    end of [his] investigation,” and that, at that point, he “left the
    scene and never returned to the premises.” However, the record
    contains no indication that a search warrant was ever sought or
    obtained, and no evidence of any further investigation of the
    incident by any governmental entity—whether by local law
    enforcement or by the office of the State Fire Marshal—was
    submitted to the magistrate at the preliminary hearing.
    (…continued)
    asked had to do with whether the holes were created by water
    streams during fire suppression efforts, and not whether the
    holes were created while looking for hot spots after the fire was
    already out.
    3. The dissent contends that “[t]he only suggestion that the holes
    could have been made by the fire department in search of a hot
    spot came from defense counsel in cross examination of Chief.”
    See infra ¶ 46 note 9. We view the record differently. As noted,
    the subject came up during Marshal’s testimony as well, and
    although the question was posed by defense counsel, Marshal
    acknowledged in response that the holes could “[p]ossibly” have
    been made by fire crews after the fire had been controlled.
    20190569-CA                     6              
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    ¶13 Despite conducting no further investigation, Marshal
    testified at the preliminary hearing that, in his opinion, “this was
    an arson.” In response to a question about the basis for this
    opinion, Marshal testified as follows:
    The holes in the wall that weren’t caused by fire
    department suppression streams, the gas cans up
    against the water heater, the candles on the other
    side of the garage wall in the great room that were
    left burning with combustible material around
    them, that was certainly some of my red flags as far
    as elements of an arson go.
    Marshal acknowledged that he had not reached any conclusion
    that the house had been sparsely furnished, and was not basing
    his opinion on any such notion, and that his opinion was
    likewise not based on the presence of paint thinner (or any other
    accelerant) on the floor, even stating that he “wasn’t concerned
    with accelerant being used” in the great room. Indeed, upon
    direct questioning from the magistrate, Marshal reaffirmed that
    his opinion was not based on the presence of accelerants, but
    was instead based on “the hole[s] in the walls, [the] location of
    the gas cans, as well as the lit candles.”
    ¶14 Soon after the fire, Prisbrey notified his insurance
    company and submitted a claim, therein representing to the
    insurance company that he did not intentionally cause the fire.
    On January 2, 2018, the insurance company hired its own
    investigator (Investigator) to inspect the home and offer an
    opinion as to whether the fire was arson, so that the insurance
    company could make a decision about whether to pay the claim.
    Investigator traveled to the scene on January 4, 2018, and spent
    “four or five hours” on the premises. In his view, the house was
    not sparsely furnished. While he was in the house, Investigator
    took photographs and samples of various items. In particular, he
    filled four lined one-gallon cans, designed to keep gases inside,
    with various fire debris, with the intent to test the debris samples
    20190569-CA                      7               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    for the presence of accelerants. Those samples were later tested,
    and Investigator testified that they showed no sign of accelerants
    anywhere near where the fire had started, in the great room.
    ¶15 Investigator also focused on the two holes in the wall
    between the great room and the garage. In particular, he
    examined the relative damage on the two sides of the wall, as
    well as on the gypsum and the paper in the drywall along the
    sides of the holes, and concluded that the holes had been created
    after the fire, and not before. In particular, Investigator observed
    that the gypsum inside the drywall along the edges of the holes
    was less discolored than the torn paper covering the drywall
    around the holes, and concluded that the paper had not been
    torn—an event that would have occurred when the holes were
    created—until after the fire was over. Investigator also noted the
    absence of any fire damage inside the garage, observing that a
    fire burning intensely enough to burn the drywall inside the
    room “would have gone into the garage” if the holes had existed
    while the fire was burning.
    ¶16 After completing his investigation, Investigator notified
    the insurance company that his preliminary conclusion was that
    the fire was accidental, and he later submitted a final written
    report reaffirming that conclusion and detailing the basis for it.
    Based in part on Investigator’s conclusion, the insurance
    company approved Prisbrey’s claim, ultimately paying him
    “over $350,000 in benefits” for, among other things, repair to the
    house and for temporary housing.
    ¶17 After the insurance company paid the claim, the State
    charged Prisbrey with aggravated arson, a first-degree felony,
    and with filing a false insurance claim, a second-degree felony.
    The district court, sitting in the capacity of a magistrate, held a
    preliminary hearing to decide whether to bind Prisbrey over for
    trial on these charges; the hearing took place over two days,
    spaced eleven months apart. During that hearing, the State
    called three witnesses: Chief and Marshal, who testified as to the
    events described above; and a witness from the Insurance Fraud
    20190569-CA                      8               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    Division of the Utah Insurance Department, who testified that
    Prisbrey had submitted a claim to his insurance company. After
    the State rested, Prisbrey called Investigator and Girlfriend.
    During his testimony, Investigator described his investigation,
    the conclusion he had drawn from it—that the fire had been
    accidental—and the reasons for his conclusion. At the end of the
    hearing, the magistrate declined to bind Prisbrey over on either
    charge, determining that, even though the State’s burden “is not
    very high,” the State had failed to meet that burden.
    ISSUE AND STANDARD OF REVIEW
    ¶18 The State now appeals the magistrate’s decision not to
    bind Prisbrey over for trial. A “decision to bind over a criminal
    defendant for trial presents a mixed question of law and fact and
    requires the application of the appropriate bindover standard to
    the underlying factual findings.” In re I.R.C., 
    2010 UT 41
    , ¶ 12,
    
    232 P.3d 1040
     (quotation simplified). In this context, appellate
    courts give “limited deference to a magistrate’s application of
    the bindover standard to the facts of each case.” See State v.
    Ramirez, 
    2012 UT 59
    , ¶ 7, 
    289 P.3d 444
     (quotation simplified);
    accord State v. Virgin, 
    2006 UT 29
    , ¶ 34, 
    137 P.3d 787
    .
    ANALYSIS
    ¶19 “The preliminary hearing is a fundamental procedural
    right guaranteed by article I, section 13 of the Utah
    Constitution.” Ramirez, 
    2012 UT 59
    , ¶ 8. Under that provision, a
    defendant charged with any felony or any class A misdemeanor
    is entitled to a preliminary hearing. See State v. Hernandez, 
    2011 UT 70
    , ¶ 29, 
    268 P.3d 822
    ; see also Utah Const. art. I, § 13. Under a
    separate constitutional provision, the people of Utah have
    declared that the “function” of a preliminary hearing “is limited
    to determining whether probable cause exists” to bind a
    defendant over for trial. See Utah Const. art. I, § 12.
    20190569-CA                      9               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    ¶20 Our supreme court has noted that “probable cause never
    had and never will have a precise meaning.” See State v. Clark,
    
    2001 UT 9
    , ¶ 11 n.1, 
    20 P.3d 300
     (quotation simplified). In Clark,
    the court held that the “probable cause” standard applicable in
    preliminary hearings was the same as the “probable cause”
    standard applicable in the context of arrest warrants, stating
    that, “at both the arrest warrant and the preliminary hearing
    stages, the prosecution must present sufficient evidence to
    support a reasonable belief that an offense has been committed
    and that the defendant committed it.” Id. ¶ 16; accord Utah R.
    Crim. P. 7B(b); State v. Schmidt, 
    2015 UT 65
    , ¶ 17, 
    356 P.3d 1204
    .
    And the Clark court noted that this “reasonable belief”
    formulation of the probable cause standard was not materially
    different from the “fair probability” formulation of the probable
    cause standard applicable in the context of search warrants. See
    
    2001 UT 9
    , ¶ 11 n.1 (stating that, “[t]hough phrased differently,
    there is little, if any, difference” between the “reasonable belief”
    standard for obtaining an arrest warrant and the “fair
    probability” standard for obtaining a search warrant); see also
    State v. Decorso, 
    1999 UT 57
    , ¶ 59, 
    993 P.2d 837
     (stating that a
    search warrant is proper where there is a “fair probability that
    evidence of the crime will be found in the place or places named
    in the warrant” (quotation simplified)), abrogated on other grounds
    by State v. Thornton, 
    2017 UT 9
    , 
    391 P.3d 1061
    .
    ¶21 While the State bears the burden of establishing the
    existence of probable cause at a preliminary hearing, see State v.
    Lopez, 
    2020 UT 61
    , ¶ 46, 
    474 P.3d 949
    , that burden is “relatively
    low,” see Ramirez, 
    2012 UT 59
    , ¶ 9; see also Lopez, 
    2020 UT 61
    , ¶ 46
    (stating that the burden is “light”). To make the necessary
    showing, the State “need not produce evidence sufficient to
    support a finding of guilt at trial or even to eliminate alternative
    inferences that could be drawn from the evidence in favor of the
    defense.” Lopez, 
    2020 UT 61
    , ¶ 46 (quotation simplified). The
    State need only present “reasonably believable evidence—as
    opposed to speculation—sufficient to sustain each element of the
    crime(s) in question.” Ramirez, 
    2012 UT 59
    , ¶ 9. And in
    considering the evidence presented, the magistrate conducting
    20190569-CA                     10               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    the preliminary hearing “must view all evidence in the light
    most favorable to the prosecution and must draw all reasonable
    inferences in favor of the prosecution.” Clark, 
    2001 UT 9
    , ¶ 10
    (quotation simplified).
    ¶22 But “[d]espite the relatively low evidentiary threshold at a
    preliminary hearing, a magistrate may deny bindover in certain
    situations.” State v. Graham, 
    2013 UT App 109
    , ¶ 9, 
    302 P.3d 824
    .
    Indeed, when “[p]roperly construed and applied, the probable
    cause standard does not constitute a rubber stamp for the
    prosecution but, rather, provides a meaningful opportunity for
    magistrates to ferret out groundless and improvident
    prosecutions.” State v. Virgin, 
    2006 UT 29
    , ¶ 19, 
    137 P.3d 787
    . For
    instance, “when the evidence, considered under the totality of
    the circumstances, is wholly lacking and incapable of reasonable
    inference to prove some issue which supports the prosecution’s
    claim, the magistrate is not required to bind a criminal defendant
    over for trial.” Graham, 
    2013 UT App 109
    , ¶ 9 (quotation
    simplified). Similarly, a magistrate may properly deny bindover
    “where the facts presented by the prosecution provide no more
    than a basis for speculation.” See State v. Jones, 
    2016 UT 4
    , ¶ 13,
    
    365 P.3d 1212
     (quotation simplified).
    ¶23 To be sure, the line separating “speculation” from
    “reasonable inference” can at times be faint. See Salt Lake City v.
    Carrera, 
    2015 UT 73
    , ¶¶ 11–12, 
    358 P.3d 1067
     (stating that the
    “distinction between a reasonable inference and speculation” is a
    “difficult” one “for which a bright-line methodology is elusive”);
    see also State v. Cristobal, 
    2010 UT App 228
    , ¶ 16, 
    238 P.3d 1096
    (referring to the distinction between reasonable inference and
    speculation as “sometimes subtle”), abrogated on other grounds as
    recognized by State v. Law, 
    2020 UT App 74
    , 
    464 P.3d 1192
    . An
    “inference” is “a conclusion reached by considering other facts
    and deducing a logical consequence from them.” Carrera, 
    2015 UT 73
    , ¶ 12 (quotation simplified). “On the other hand,
    ‘speculation’ is the act or practice of theorizing about matters
    over which there is no certain knowledge at hand.” 
    Id.
    (quotation simplified). As our supreme court has explained, “the
    20190569-CA                    11               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    difference between an inference and speculation depends on
    whether the underlying facts support the conclusion.” Id.; see also
    Salt Lake City v. Gallegos, 
    2015 UT App 78
    , ¶ 10, 
    347 P.3d 842
    (stating that “inferences drawn from facts in evidence are
    appropriate,” but “inferences drawn from inferences are not”
    (quotation simplified)).
    ¶24 In this case, the State charged Prisbrey with aggravated
    arson, a crime that occurs when a person, “by means of fire,”
    “intentionally and unlawfully damages . . . a habitable
    structure.” 
    Utah Code Ann. § 76-6-103
    (1)(a) (LexisNexis 2017).
    Arson, like all crimes, may be proved through circumstantial
    evidence. See State v. Nickles, 
    728 P.2d 123
    , 126 (Utah 1986)
    (stating that, in the context of arson, “circumstantial evidence
    alone may be sufficient to establish the guilt of the accused”).
    After Chief and Marshal walked through the burned house on
    New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, they made several
    circumstantial observations that they thought pointed toward
    the conclusion that Prisbrey had intentionally set his house on
    fire. Specifically, the State points to seven such observations that
    it contends support bindover: (1) that Prisbrey told fire officials
    that he had used paint thinner to clean up dog-tracked paint in
    the days leading up to the fire; (2) that Marshal believed the fire
    had spread more quickly than he would have anticipated; (3)
    that flammable materials were present in the house, including an
    “overly dry” Christmas tree, camp fuel in a closet, and gasoline
    cans in the garage; (4) that Chief believed the house was sparsely
    furnished, and had heard that Prisbrey had removed items to a
    storage unit prior to the fire; (5) that Prisbrey failed to extinguish
    the six candles in the Christmas village display before leaving
    the house on New Year’s Eve; (6) that Prisbrey, Girlfriend, and
    dog had all left the house prior to the fire; and (7) that two holes
    were punched into the wall between the great room and the
    garage, right between where the Christmas village display and
    the gas cans were located, and that these holes had not been
    created by fire department water streams.
    20190569-CA                      12               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    ¶25 After making these observations, Chief and Marshal left
    the scene, with Marshal commenting that they “would need a
    [search] warrant to proceed any further.” But no warrant was
    ever sought or obtained; neither Chief nor Marshal conducted
    any further investigation, and no evidence was presented to the
    magistrate that any other governmental entity did either.
    ¶26 Because the State never sought a search warrant, no
    magistrate was ever asked to evaluate the State’s evidence—as it
    existed at that moment in time—to consider whether probable
    cause existed to support a search warrant to further investigate
    the possibility that Prisbrey had committed arson. And we are
    not asked to consider that question either, although we certainly
    acknowledge that a request for a warrant, if the State had made
    one on New Year’s Day, may very well have been appropriately
    granted, given the incomplete information that then existed.
    ¶27 The question we are asked to consider is not whether
    probable cause existed to support a search warrant on New
    Year’s Day, but instead whether probable cause existed to
    support bindover at the conclusion of the preliminary hearing, in
    light of all of the evidence presented at that hearing. Even if we
    assume, for the sake of argument, that the State could have
    demonstrated probable cause for a search warrant on New
    Year’s Day, it does not necessarily follow from that conclusion
    that probable cause will continue to be present at all subsequent
    stages of the case. Over the course of a case, inferences that once
    appeared reasonable may, upon further investigation, be proven
    to be unreasonable or no longer based on facts in evidence. And
    in exceptional cases, evidence put forward by a defendant at a
    preliminary hearing may overcome a prima facie showing of
    probable cause. See Lopez, 
    2020 UT 61
    , ¶¶ 46–48 (noting the “low
    bar” the State must surmount at a preliminary hearing, and
    stating that, given the low bar, “it may be difficult for the
    defense to overcome a prima facie showing of probable cause”).
    ¶28 The magistrate adjudged this case to be one of those rare
    cases in which the State’s evidence did not surmount the low
    20190569-CA                    13               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    probable cause bar. And in this unique case, for two related
    reasons, we discern no abuse of the magistrate’s limited
    discretion in reaching that conclusion.
    ¶29 First, the State’s evidence consisted largely of innocuous
    facts coupled with unexamined supposition. As noted above, the
    difference between “speculation” and “reasonable inference”
    turns on whether there are facts that underlie the conclusion. See
    Carrera, 
    2015 UT 73
    , ¶ 12. For many of Chief’s and Marshal’s
    “red flags,” no underlying facts supported their speculative
    suspicion. For instance, Chief’s supposition about the use of
    accelerants was based on Prisbrey’s account that, some days
    prior to the fire, he had used paint thinner to spot-clean dog-
    tracked paint. But paint thinner evaporates over time, and
    neither Chief nor Marshal knew the date on which Prisbrey had
    applied the paint thinner, nor did they know whether the paint
    thinner Prisbrey used was even flammable, or whether he had
    applied any paint thinner anywhere near the Christmas village
    display. And neither conducted any follow-up investigation to
    attempt to ascertain these facts. Under the circumstances, Chief’s
    suspicion that Prisbrey had applied flammable accelerants on a
    location near the Christmas village display on a date recent
    enough to matter amounted to nothing more than a “theor[y]
    about matters over which there is no certain knowledge.” See 
    id.
    (quotation simplified). Indeed, during his testimony, Marshal
    specifically disavowed reliance on any such supposition,
    informing the magistrate, in response to a direct question, that
    he “wasn’t concerned with accelerant being used” in the great
    room. The State’s attempted reliance upon it now is misplaced.
    ¶30 Similarly, Chief’s supposition that the house was sparsely
    furnished was, in context, not a reasonable inference supportive
    of arson. By itself, the fact that a house is sparsely furnished is
    hardly evidence of arson; what triggered Chief’s suspicion was
    that the reason the house was sparsely furnished might have
    been because Prisbrey had taken items out of the house prior to
    the fire and placed them in a storage unit. That fact, if true,
    would potentially be circumstantial evidence of arsonous intent.
    20190569-CA                    14               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    But here, nothing other than unexamined supposition supports
    any such notion. Chief could not even remember who told him
    about the storage unit, let alone any details about the type and
    number of items that might have been moved there prior to the
    fire. And no additional investigation was apparently ever
    conducted to locate or inspect any such storage unit. Chief’s
    suspicion along these lines was speculative, and Marshal again
    distanced himself from it, testifying that he included no
    observations in his report about the house being sparsely
    furnished. The State’s attempted reliance upon this fact now is
    likewise misplaced.
    ¶31 In addition, some of the other facts to which the State now
    points are entirely innocuous, and do almost nothing to support
    an inference of arson. For instance, the fact that Prisbrey had
    flammable materials in his house and in his garage was entirely
    unremarkable. Many Americans have an overly dry Christmas
    tree in their house on New Year’s Eve. And if the presence of
    camping fuel in a closet and gas cans in the garage were
    indicative of arsonous intent, it would be the exceptional
    homeowner who would not fall under suspicion.
    ¶32 Second, the evidence of the insurance company’s
    investigation presented by the defense at the preliminary
    hearing served to overcome any remnants of reasonable
    inference that remained in the State’s references to accelerants or
    the holes in the wall. It bears noting that—at the time it
    investigated the claim—the insurance company was fully aware
    that local fire officials were wondering about arson; indeed, that
    is why the company dispatched its own investigator to the scene.
    And it goes almost without saying that the insurance company—
    given the $350,000 insurance claim at stake—had every interest
    in making sure the fire had not been started intentionally. But
    despite the insurer’s awareness and incentives, its investigation
    resulted in a conclusion that the fire had been an accident.
    ¶33 Specifically, Investigator took samples, preserved in lined
    cans, with the intention of determining whether there was any
    20190569-CA                    15               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    evidence that Prisbrey applied paint thinner or other accelerants
    in locations designed to spread the fire. Tests of the samples
    yielded no such evidence.
    ¶34 And Investigator carefully examined the two holes in the
    wall between the great room and the garage. This piece of
    evidence was arguably the State’s most powerful, and the item
    upon which Marshal almost entirely rested his conclusion that
    Prisbrey had intentionally set the fire. But Investigator
    concluded, based on his analysis of the components of the
    drywall on each side of the wall and the lack of fire damage in
    the garage, that the holes had been created after the fire.
    ¶35 The State asserts that Marshal’s conclusion to the
    contrary—that the holes are indicative of arson—is sufficient to
    compel bindover, pointing out that “when reasonable inferences
    from the evidence cut both for and against the [S]tate’s case, the
    magistrate lacks discretion to choose between them and must
    leave such a determination to the fact-finder at trial.” See
    Schmidt, 
    2015 UT 65
    , ¶ 1. But while Investigator’s conclusion
    represents a reasonable inference drawn from evidence,
    Marshal’s conclusion—on this record—does not. In contrast to
    Investigator’s conclusion, which was based on facts following an
    investigation, Marshal’s conclusion was simply a “theor[y] about
    matters over which there is no certain knowledge.” See Carrera,
    
    2015 UT 73
    , ¶ 12 (quotation simplified). After all, the presence of
    the holes themselves is not, in itself, indicative of arson; the holes
    lead to a reasonable inference of arson only if they were created
    before the fire. Only Investigator—and not Marshal—made
    efforts to thoroughly investigate when the holes were created.
    Marshal simply asked two individuals (rather than all of the fire
    crews) if the holes had been created by their water streams
    (rather than through any other means). After being told that the
    holes had not been created by fire crews’ water streams, Marshal
    jumped to the unexamined conclusion that the holes must have
    been created prior to the fire. He did not attempt to ground that
    conclusion in any actual investigatory facts. He did not examine
    the holes to compare the burn or water damage on each side of
    20190569-CA                      16               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    the wall, and did not talk to any members of the fire crews other
    than Chief and the local fire marshal.
    ¶36 After considering all of the evidence as presented at the
    preliminary hearing, the magistrate determined that the State’s
    case was based on speculation and not on reasonable inferences
    grounded in evidentiary facts. To be sure, Prisbrey lit six candles
    in a Christmas village display in his house, and did not
    extinguish them in his haste to leave the house—with his dog—
    to propose to Girlfriend. The fire did seem to have spread
    quickly, perhaps due to the presence of a dry Christmas tree in
    the vicinity. But beyond that, the State’s inferences of arson are
    simply theoretical, and not grounded in evidence. The State did
    nothing—or, at least, presented no evidence that it did
    anything—more to investigate its suspicions. And the State’s
    theories did not hold up against an actual investigation by an
    entity with every incentive to validate them. Under these unique
    circumstances, we cannot conclude that the magistrate abused
    his limited discretion in determining that the State’s case was too
    speculative to support bindover, on either an aggravated arson
    charge or an insurance fraud charge, which charges in this case
    rise and fall together.
    CONCLUSION
    ¶37 Accordingly, we affirm the magistrate’s decision to
    decline bindover.
    POHLMAN, Judge (dissenting):
    ¶38 The magistrate, and the majority alike, recognizes that the
    State’s burden of proof at the preliminary hearing is light. Our
    supreme court characterizes the standard as setting a “low bar,”
    equating it to the “reasonable belief” formulation of the probable
    cause standard applicable to arrest warrants. See State v. Lopez,
    
    2020 UT 61
    , ¶¶ 46, 48, 
    474 P.3d 949
    ; State v. Jones, 
    2016 UT 4
    , ¶ 12,
    
    365 P.3d 1212
    . Similarly, the majority likens it to the “fair
    20190569-CA                     17               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    probability” formulation of the probable cause standard
    applicable to search warrants. See supra ¶ 20.
    ¶39 Without affirmatively stating that the State could have
    met that standard with the evidence it amassed had it sought a
    search warrant on New Year’s Day, the majority assumes for the
    sake of its analysis that the standard would have been met. But it
    then concludes that this is an “exceptional” case where the
    defense overcame that showing in the preliminary hearing. See
    supra ¶¶ 27–28. I respectfully disagree.
    ¶40 The lens through which we must view the evidence
    presented at the preliminary hearing is from the perspective of a
    reasonable arresting officer. Jones, 
    2016 UT 4
    , ¶ 22. “We ask
    whether any officer, viewing the evidence in the light most
    favorable to the prosecution, could reasonably conclude that a
    crime was committed and that the defendant committed it.” 
    Id.
    (quotation simplified). “And in making that assessment we are
    required to give the benefit of all reasonable inferences to the
    prosecution.” 
    Id.
     Applying these principles here, I believe the
    State presented enough evidence to sustain a reasonable
    determination of probable cause to arrest Prisbrey for
    aggravated arson and insurance fraud, 4 and I do not share my
    colleagues’ view that Prisbrey undermined that evidence in such
    a way as to defeat that showing.
    ¶41 The evidence, when viewed in the light most favorable to
    the State, paints an incriminating picture. No more than two
    days before the fire, Prisbrey applied paint thinner all over the
    house, and he made two large holes in the wall between the
    4. The State presented evidence at the preliminary hearing that
    Prisbrey represented to his insurance company, as part of an
    insurance claim, that he did not intentionally set the fire. Thus,
    to the extent there was probable cause to bind Prisbrey over for
    arson, there was also probable cause to bind him over for
    knowingly making a false or fraudulent insurance claim.
    20190569-CA                    18              
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    garage and the great room. On the garage side of the wall, he
    stacked up three containers of gasoline in line with the two holes
    and within inches of the water heater. He also left a plastic
    garbage can full of various aerosols and flammable liquids in the
    garage. On the great room side of the wall, Prisbrey created a
    Christmas village display, decorated with candles, fake snow,
    wood, and other combustible materials. And on New Year’s Eve,
    Prisbrey lit the six candles and then left the house at 10:00 p.m.,
    taking Girlfriend and his dog with him. The house was in flames
    minutes later, and after surveying the scene Marshal opined that
    the fire was intentionally set. In my opinion, this is enough
    evidence to sustain an arresting officer’s reasonable belief that
    Prisbrey took intentional steps to burn down his house.
    ¶42 The majority disagrees, concluding that these facts were
    largely innocuous or speculative. See supra ¶ 29. I see it
    differently. For example, the majority labels the evidence of
    Prisbrey’s application of flammable accelerants in the house as
    speculative, stating that neither Chief nor Marshal had gathered
    enough evidence to know whether “Prisbrey had applied
    flammable accelerants on a location near the Christmas village
    display on a date recent enough to matter.” Supra ¶ 29. But even
    if these details were not established with fine precision,
    Prisbrey’s own statements were incriminating enough. As far as
    whether the paint thinner Prisbrey applied was of the flammable
    variety, Prisbrey admitted it was when he identified the paint
    thinner in response to Marshal’s inquiry about whether there
    were any ignitable or flammable liquids in the house. 5 And
    regarding when and where the paint thinner was applied,
    5. In addition to Prisbrey’s own suggestion that the paint thinner
    he applied was flammable, Marshal testified that “the
    overwhelming majority” of paint thinner “is flammable” and
    that while there probably is a non-flammable variety “out there,”
    it was not something he had seen. This testimony lends further
    support to the inference that Prisbrey’s paint thinner was
    flammable.
    20190569-CA                    19               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    Marshal testified that Prisbrey told him that he had applied it
    recently—“over the last two days”—and that he had applied it
    “all over the place.” 6
    ¶43 Similarly, the majority labels Chief’s testimony that the
    house was sparsely furnished as supposition, stating that his
    testimony about a storage unit “was speculative.” See supra ¶ 30.
    But Chief’s testimony about the furnishings, or lack thereof, in
    the house was based on his own personal observations of the
    house when he inspected it on the night of the fire. And his
    testimony about the storage unit was based on a report he
    received from another officer who told him that Prisbrey “had
    put stuff” there. 7 Thus, while Chief’s testimony on this point
    may have been less than compelling, I do not believe it was
    improper for the State to rely on it as one piece of the evidentiary
    puzzle. 8 See Carter v. State, 
    2019 UT 12
    , ¶ 75, 
    439 P.3d 616
     (“The
    6. In my view, Prisbrey’s admission that he spread paint thinner
    in his home could be indicative of guilt even if the paint thinner
    was not found near the Christmas village display. If Prisbrey
    intended to burn down his house, he could have distributed the
    paint thinner in other areas to aid the fire’s spread.
    7. While not speculative, Chief’s testimony about the storage
    unit was admittedly hearsay. However, rule 7B(b) of the Utah
    Rules of Criminal Procedure provides that “findings of probable
    cause may be based on hearsay, in whole or in part.” Utah R.
    Crim. P. 7B(b); see also Utah R. Evid. 1102(a) (“Reliable hearsay is
    admissible at criminal preliminary examinations.”); State v.
    Lopez, 
    2020 UT 61
    , ¶ 45, 
    474 P.3d 949
     (recognizing that hearsay
    evidence may be relied upon to establish probable cause in
    preliminary hearings).
    8. Prisbrey and the majority fault the State for not investigating
    the existence of the storage unit. See supra ¶ 30. The State did not
    introduce evidence of the storage unit, but the absence of that
    evidence does not establish that no other investigation was
    (continued…)
    20190569-CA                     20               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    line between a reasonable inference and speculation can be
    difficult to draw, but a reasonable inference exists when there is
    at least a foundation in the evidence upon which the ultimate
    conclusion is based, while in the case of speculation, there is no
    underlying evidence to support the conclusion.” (quotation
    simplified)).
    ¶44 Next, the majority concludes that certain evidentiary facts
    “are entirely innocuous, and do almost nothing to support an
    inference of arson.” See supra ¶ 31. In particular, it finds that the
    existence of flammable materials in Prisbrey’s garage and his
    house “was entirely unremarkable.” See supra ¶ 31. Even putting
    aside the overly dry Christmas tree and camping fuel, I do not
    consider the flammable materials in Prisbrey’s garage to be
    unremarkable. Marshal did not suspect arson simply because
    Prisbrey was storing some gasoline in his garage. Rather, it was
    the presence of a plastic garbage can full of various aerosols and
    flammable liquids along with three containers of gasoline, one
    with the top removed, stacked up within inches of a water heater
    bearing a warning label to keep flammable liquids away and
    lined up directly behind two holes in the wall of the great room
    in which six lit candles were left unattended that caused him
    concern. My colleagues believe it would be the exceptional
    homeowner who would not fall under suspicion if these facts
    (…continued)
    undertaken and that no additional evidence was adduced. The
    State may have believed Marshal’s testimony on this point was
    sufficient for purposes of the preliminary hearing. Plus, there is
    an assumption at the preliminary hearing stage “that the
    prosecution’s case will only get stronger as the investigation
    continues.” State v. Clark, 
    2001 UT 9
    , ¶ 10, 
    20 P.3d 300
     (quotation
    simplified). The fact that the State could have presented a
    stronger case had it brought more witnesses or done a more
    thorough investigation before the preliminary hearing is not a
    relevant consideration as long as the liberal bindover standard is
    met.
    20190569-CA                     21               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    were indicative of arson. See supra ¶ 31. I submit that these are
    exceptional facts.
    ¶45 Finally, I do not agree that evidence of the insurance
    company’s investigation presented by the defense overcame the
    probable cause established by the State. The evidence presented
    by Prisbrey is compelling, and a jury could very well doubt
    Prisbrey’s guilt in light of the evidence produced by the
    insurance company’s investigation. But our role “is not to decide
    whether we think the charges are likely to produce a conviction,
    or even whether we would be inclined to produce charges if we
    were in a position to exercise prosecutorial discretion.” Jones,
    
    2016 UT 4
    , ¶ 39. Rather, our task is to decide whether a
    reasonable police officer, viewing the record in the light most
    favorable to the State, could conclude that Prisbrey committed
    arson. See 
    id.
     And the insurance company’s evidence does not
    conclusively disprove the State’s evidence; it instead presents a
    conflict in the evidence that neither we, nor the magistrate, are
    permitted to weigh. See id. ¶ 24.
    ¶46 In particular, the fact that Investigator’s samples yielded
    no evidence of paint thinner in the house, see supra ¶ 33, does not
    disprove Prisbrey’s own admissions that he spread accelerant
    throughout the home. It instead presents a conflict for the
    factfinder to resolve. Similarly, that Investigator opined that the
    two holes in the wall between the great room and the garage
    were created after the fire, and not before, see supra ¶ 34, does
    not establish it as fact. Marshal testified that he asked Chief and
    the local fire marshal if the fire department made the holes
    “during suppression” of the fire, and they said they did not. 9
    9. The majority states that Marshal specifically asked if the holes
    were created by the firefighters’ water streams. See supra ¶ 35. To
    be sure, there was discussion of what evidence would have been
    present had the holes been created by water streams. But
    Marshal asked a more general question. He twice testified that
    he asked if the holes were made by the fire department’s
    (continued…)
    20190569-CA                    22               
    2020 UT App 172
    State v. Prisbrey
    While a factfinder may not be allowed to rely on such hearsay at
    trial, for purposes of the preliminary hearing, the State was
    entitled to rely on it to demonstrate probable cause. See supra
    ¶ 43 note 7. And while a factfinder would have every right to
    reject the firefighters’ recollections in favor of Investigator’s
    opinion and scientific investigation, the State was not obligated
    to rebut the defense’s theories to meet the liberal bindover
    standard. “A strong argument the other way isn’t enough to
    foreclose a trial on the merits. Weighing evidence in search of the
    most reasonable inference to be drawn therefrom is the role of
    the factfinder at trial.” Jones, 
    2016 UT 4
    , ¶ 24 (quotation
    simplified).
    ¶47 In sum, I conclude that the magistrate exceeded his
    discretion in refusing to bind Prisbrey over for trial, and I would
    reverse its decision and remand this case for further
    proceedings. The State’s case was met with a persuasive rebuttal,
    and weaknesses in its case were exposed in the preliminary
    hearing. But the question before us is whether the State,
    considering the evidence in the light most favorable to it,
    demonstrated probable cause to arrest Prisbrey for arson. For all
    these reasons, I believe that it did.
    (…continued)
    suppression, and the answer was no, the firefighters “did not
    make them.” The only suggestion that the holes could have been
    made by the fire department in search of a hot spot came from
    defense counsel in cross-examination of Chief. And Chief
    testified that at times drywall is pulled down to look for hot spot
    exposure, but that the department tries to do minimal overhaul
    in the area where it believes the fire originated.
    20190569-CA                    23               
    2020 UT App 172