Marathon County v. D. K. ( 2020 )


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    2020 WI 8
    SUPREME COURT            OF   WISCONSIN
    CASE NO.:              2017AP2217
    COMPLETE TITLE:        In the matter of the condition of D. K.:
    Marathon County,
    Petitioner-Respondent,
    v.
    D. K.,
    Respondent-Appellant-Petitioner.
    REVIEW OF DECISION OF THE COURT OF APPEALS
    Reported at 384 Wis. 2d 272,921 N.W.2d 14
    (2018 – unpublished)
    OPINION FILED:         February 4, 2020
    SUBMITTED ON BRIEFS:
    ORAL ARGUMENT:         November 25, 2019
    SOURCE OF APPEAL:
    COURT:              Circuit
    COUNTY:             Marathon
    JUDGE:              Karen L. Seifert
    JUSTICES:
    ZIEGLER, J., delivered the majority opinion of the Court with
    respect to Parts I., II., III., IV.A., IV.B., and IV.C.1, in
    which ROGGENSACK, C.J., REBECCA GRASSL BRADLEY, KELLY, and
    HAGEDORN, JJ., joined, the majority opinion of the Court with
    respect to Part V., in which ROGGENSACK, C.J., KELLY and
    HAGEDORN, JJ., joined, and an opinion with respect to Parts
    IV.C.2., and IV.D., in which ROGGENSACK, C.J., and HAGEDORN,
    JJ., joined.   REBECCA GRASSL BRADLEY, J., filed a concurring
    opinion, in which KELLY, J., joined.       DALLET, J., filed a
    dissenting opinion, in which ANN WALSH BRADLEY, J., joined.
    NOT PARTICIPATING:
    ATTORNEYS:
    For the respondent-appellant-petitioner, there were briefs
    filed by Catherine R. Malchow, assistant state public defender.
    There was an oral argument by Catherine R. Malchow.
    For the petitioner-respondent, there was a brief filed by
    Michael J. Puerner and Scott M. Corbett, corporation counsel.
    There was an oral argument by Michael J. Puerner.
    2
    
    2020 WI 8
    NOTICE
    This opinion is subject to further
    editing and modification.   The final
    version will appear in the bound
    volume of the official reports.
    No.     2017AP2217
    (L.C. No.   2017ME132)
    STATE OF WISCONSIN                          :            IN SUPREME COURT
    In the matter of the condition of D. K.:
    MARATHON COUNTY,
    FILED
    Petitioner-Respondent,
    FEB 4, 2020
    v.
    Sheila T. Reiff
    D. K.,                                                        Clerk of Supreme Court
    Respondent-Appellant-Petitioner.
    ZIEGLER, J., delivered the majority opinion of the Court with
    respect to Parts I., II., III., IV.A., IV.B., and IV.C.1, in
    which ROGGENSACK, C.J., REBECCA GRASSL BRADLEY, KELLY, and
    HAGEDORN, JJ., joined, the majority opinion of the Court with
    respect to Part V., in which ROGGENSACK, C.J., KELLY and
    HAGEDORN, JJ., joined, and an opinion with respect to Parts
    IV.C.2., and IV.D., in which ROGGENSACK, C.J., and HAGEDORN,
    JJ., joined.   REBECCA GRASSL BRADLEY, J., filed a concurring
    opinion, in which KELLY, J., joined.       DALLET, J., filed a
    dissenting opinion, in which ANN WALSH BRADLEY, J., joined.
    REVIEW of a decision of the Court of Appeals.              Affirmed.
    ¶1       ANNETTE KINGSLAND ZIEGLER, J.       This is a review of an
    unpublished decision of the court of appeals, Marathon County v.
    D.K.,    No.    2017AP2217,   unpublished   slip     op.     (Wis.     Ct.     App.
    No.    2017AP2217
    Aug. 7, 2018), affirming the Winnebago County circuit court's1
    Wis.       Stat.    ch.    51     orders    for       involuntary     commitment       and
    involuntary        medication       and    treatment.2       D.K.    argues     that   he
    should not have been committed because the County                             failed to
    prove by clear and convincing evidence that he was dangerous as
    defined      under       Wis.    Stat.    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.         (2015-16).3        The
    County disagrees, and also argues that D.K.'s commitment is a
    moot issue.
    ¶2     At the final hearing, the County had to prove by clear
    and convincing evidence that D.K. was mentally ill, a proper
    subject       for        commitment,        and       dangerous.         Wis.      Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a).             The    circuit    court      concluded     that    Winnebago
    County      met    its    burden    of     proof,     ordered   D.K.'s    involuntary
    commitment for six months, and ordered involuntary medication
    and treatment.            The court of appeals affirmed.                 It concluded
    that D.K.'s threats and plans to strangle police officers and
    kill       other    people       established      a    "'reasonable     fear . . . of
    serious physical harm' under § 51.20(1)(a)2.b,"                       and, therefore,
    "the       circuit       court's     dangerousness         determination . . . was
    1   The Honorable Karen L. Seifert presided.
    Winnebago County was the original petitioner in this case.
    2
    But after the circuit court entered its order, venue was
    transferred to Marathon County. On appeal, Marathon County was
    designated as the petitioner-respondent and argued before the
    court of appeals and this court.     Throughout this opinion, we
    will refer to Marathon County as "the County."
    All subsequent references to the Wisconsin Statutes are to
    3
    the 2015-16 version unless otherwise indicated.
    2
    No.    2017AP2217
    supported by the evidence."                   D.K., No. 2017AP2217, unpublished
    slip op., ¶11.             On review, we are asked to decide two issues:
    (1) whether D.K.'s challenge to his commitment order is moot;
    and (2) whether there was clear and convincing evidence that
    D.K. was dangerous under § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    ¶3    We conclude that D.K.'s commitment is not a moot issue
    because    it    still        subjects    him       to   a    firearms   ban.       We    also
    conclude that there was clear and convincing evidence at the
    final hearing that D.K. was dangerous as defined under Wis.
    Stat. 51.20(1)(a)2.b.            Thus, we affirm the court of appeals.
    I.    FACTUAL BACKGROUND
    ¶4    On        April    25,    2017,        Officer      Kelly    Schmitz    of    the
    Winnebago County Sheriff's Department arrested D.K.                                The next
    day, Officer Schmitz filed a Statement of Emergency Detention by
    Law Enforcement Officer in the Winnebago County circuit court.
    According to the Statement, D.K. had complained that the Oshkosh
    Police Department bugged his phone and that other people were
    "stalking him" and lying about him.                          The Statement also alleged
    that D.K. had emailed the Department's human resources director
    and   requested        a    meeting      with      the   police     chief   so     he    could
    "strangle       him    to     death."         It     also      alleged   that     D.K.    had
    threatened to "hurt every single person" who was stalking him
    and lying about him.
    ¶5    On    April        28,    2017,     the      circuit    court    commissioner
    determined that there was probable cause to believe that D.K.
    was mentally ill, a proper subject for treatment, and dangerous
    3
    No.    2017AP2217
    to   himself       or    others.       See    Wis.    Stat.    § 51.20(7)(a).             The
    circuit      court      commissioner       ordered    that     D.K.    be    detained      at
    Winnebago Mental Health Institute pending a final hearing.                               That
    same       day,    the     circuit     court       issued     an   Order          Appointing
    Examiners, appointing Dr. Jagdish Dave and Dr. Yogesh Pareek.
    See Wis. Stat. § 51.20(9)(a).                     Both doctors examined D.K. and
    filed       reports      with    the    circuit       court.          See     Wis.      Stat.
    § 51.20(9)(a)5.
    ¶6     On     May   11,     2017,     the    circuit    court    held        a   final
    hearing.          See Wis. Stat. §§ 51.20(10), (13).                  Winnebago County
    presented only one witness——Dr. Dave.                   Winnebago County did not
    move Dr. Dave's report into evidence at the hearing, although
    the report had been filed with the circuit court.4                                 Winnebago
    County did not call Dr. Pareek or any fact witness such as
    Officer Kelly or the human resources director to testify.5                               D.K.
    did not testify.           Thus, the only evidence at the final hearing
    was Dr. Dave's testimony.
    ¶7     Dr. Dave is a psychiatrist.               He stated that he had the
    opportunity to evaluate D.K.                 Dr. Dave spoke with D.K., observed
    We will not refer to the contents of Dr. Dave's report
    4
    because the circuit court did not rely on it when it made
    factual findings and legal conclusions.   Nor did the parties
    rely on its contents in their arguments before this court.
    Thus, we need not decide whether filing Dr. Dave's report with
    the circuit court was sufficient to enter the report into
    evidence.
    The County attempted to call a different officer, but D.K.
    5
    objected because the officer was not on the witness list.     See
    Wis. Stat. § 51.20(10)(a).     The circuit court sustained the
    objection and did not permit the officer to testify.
    4
    No.   2017AP2217
    him, and reviewed his records.                        Dr. Dave stated his conclusion
    to a reasonable degree of medical certainty that D.K. suffered
    from     a    mental       illness       called        delusional        disorder     and    had
    "substantial            disorder    of    thought       and    perception."            He    also
    concluded that D.K.'s judgment and behavior were substantially
    impaired, he was a proper subject for treatment, and he needed
    treatment.             Corporation counsel for Winnebago County then asked
    Dr. Dave, "Based on your interview of [D.K.] were you able to
    form   an     opinion        as    to    whether       or    not    he    had    presented      a
    substantial risk of danger to either himself or others?"                                      Dr.
    Dave responded, "To other people."
    ¶8         Dr. Dave then explained the basis of his opinion.                            He
    stated that D.K. was "paranoid about people around him.                                 He had
    thoughts of harming those people who were talking about him,
    making fun of him.                 He also was making some threats against
    [the] police department because he had thought that they were
    not listening to him . . . ."                     Corporation counsel then asked,
    "Did he tell you what his intentions were with regard to the
    police       or    any     of     the    persons       in    the    public?"          Dr.    Dave
    responded, "Yes."               "He plans on strangulating the police officer
    and also killing the people who made fun of him."                               Dr. Dave also
    testified         that     D.K.'s       threats       were   directly      related      to    his
    delusional disorder.
    ¶9         On    cross-examination,            Dr.    Dave   made    multiple        other
    statements relevant to D.K.'s argument before this court.                                     Dr.
    Dave stated that D.K.: "was acting on his delusional belief and
    he could be potentially dangerous"; "can act on those thoughts
    5
    No.        2017AP2217
    and   he    can    become       potentially         dangerous";    "could    be     still
    potentially dangerous"; "was expressing those thoughts and he
    probably     may        have    acted      on       those   thoughts";      and      "most
    possibly . . . might            act   on   those      thoughts."     Dr.     Dave     also
    stated, "I don't think I can make [a] difference whether he will
    act on his thoughts or not."
    ¶10    It    is    this    final     hearing      evidence   that     we    review,
    along with the circuit court's findings and conclusions, for
    clear and convincing evidence of dangerousness.
    II.    PROCEDURAL POSTURE
    ¶11    The circuit court made an oral ruling at the final
    hearing.     The circuit court concluded:
    Based on the testimony that at this point is the only
    testimony and it's uncontroverted, I do find that Dr.
    Dave testified that [D.K.] suffers from a major mental
    illness.
    . . .
    He testified that [D.K.] is mentally ill, that [D.K.]
    is a proper subject for treatment. He testified that
    he is a danger to others, specifically that he is
    paranoid, that he has thoughts of harming people and
    has made threats to the police department that he
    wanted—-he had   thoughts that he wanted to strangle
    police and kill people. These are homicidal thoughts
    and that's what the doctor testified to.
    On that basis I do               find that it's appropriate that
    [D.K.] be committed             for a period of [6] months, that
    he be under the care            and custody of the department and
    that it be inpatient            treatment at this time.
    When counsel for D.K. asked the circuit court to clarify under
    which statutory subsection it found dangerousness, corporation
    6
    No.   2017AP2217
    counsel suggested that the circuit court's findings fell under
    Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b., "which would be indicating that he
    evidences a substantial probability of physical harm to others
    as manifested by evidence of recent homicidal or other violent
    behavior."         The circuit court responded, "That's what I heard
    the doctor testify to."
    ¶12       The circuit court issued its Order of Commitment that
    same day.         It stated that the grounds for commitment were that
    D.K.       was    mentally   ill,     dangerous,    a    proper     subject    for
    treatment, and a resident of Winnebago County.                    It also stated
    that, as a result of his commitment, D.K. was prohibited from
    possessing a firearm.           The circuit court also issued its Order
    for Involuntary Medication and Treatment.                   D.K. then filed a
    Notice of Intent to Pursue Postcommitment Relief.6
    ¶13       On May 17, 2017, D.K. was transferred from inpatient
    to   outpatient       status.    On    June   12,   2017,   the   circuit     court
    issued an Order for Transfer of Venue to Marathon County because
    D.K. had changed his residence to Marathon County.                   On November
    6, 2017, D.K. filed a Notice of Appeal.                 On November 11, 2017,
    D.K.'s six-month commitment expired and the County did not seek
    an extension.
    ¶14       On August 7, 2018, the court of appeals issued its
    decision affirming the circuit court.                   First, it declined to
    The various record documents refer interchangeably to a
    6
    Notice of Intent to Pursue "Postconviction" Relief or "Post
    Disposition" Relief. Since this was a commitment proceeding, we
    refer to this document as a Notice of Intent to Pursue
    Postcommitment Relief.
    7
    No.    2017AP2217
    address whether the issue was moot because the County did not
    argue     mootness        in    its    briefing.           D.K.,   No.     2017AP2217,
    unpublished slip op., ¶3 n.3 (citing State v. Verhagen, 2013 WI
    App     16,    ¶38,    
    346 Wis. 2d 196
    ,        
    827 N.W.2d 891
             (unrefuted
    arguments are deemed conceded)).                 Second, the court of appeals
    concluded:
    [W]hile in Dr. Dave's presence, [D.K.] specifically
    threatened strangulation and murder of multiple people
    for specific, delusional perceptions of his ill
    treatment by those people. We conclude those 'plans'
    and threats establish a 'reasonable fear      . . . of
    serious    physical    harm'   under   [Wis.    Stat.]
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.     In sum, the circuit court's
    dangerousness determination was based upon a correct
    interpretation of § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. and was supported
    by the evidence.
    D.K., No. 2017AP2217, unpublished slip op., ¶3 n.3.
    ¶15     On September 5, 2018, D.K. petitioned this court for
    review.       We granted the petition.
    III.   STANDARD OF REVIEW
    ¶16      We must first determine whether D.K.'s challenge to
    his     six-month     commitment        is   moot     because      it    has    expired.
    Mootness is a question of law that we review independently.
    Waukesha Cty. v. S.L.L., 
    2019 WI 66
    , ¶10, 
    387 Wis. 2d 333
    , 
    929 N.W.2d 140
    .
    ¶17     We must also interpret Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. in
    order to determine whether the County proved dangerousness in
    D.K.'s    case.       The       interpretation       of    a   statute     presents     a
    question       of   law    that       this   court     "reviews     de     novo     while
    benefiting from the analyses of the court of appeals and circuit
    8
    No.     2017AP2217
    court."     State v. Alger, 
    2015 WI 3
    , ¶21, 
    360 Wis. 2d 193
    , 
    858 N.W.2d 346
        (citing    State       v.   Ziegler,    
    2012 WI 73
    ,   ¶37,     
    342 Wis. 2d 256
    , 
    816 N.W.2d 238
    ).
    ¶18     Finally, we must review whether there was clear and
    convincing evidence of dangerousness as defined under Wis. Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.       at    D.K.'s      final    hearing.         D.K.   does     not
    challenge any of the circuit court's factual findings as clearly
    erroneous.      "'We will not disturb a circuit court's factual
    findings unless they are clearly erroneous.'"                  Winnebago Cty. v.
    Christopher S., 
    2016 WI 1
    , ¶50, 
    366 Wis. 2d 1
    , 
    878 N.W.2d 109
    ,
    cert. denied, 
    136 S. Ct. 2464
     (2016) (quoting Outagamie Cty. v.
    Melanie L., 
    2013 WI 67
    , ¶38, 
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    , 
    833 N.W.2d 607
    ).
    Accordingly, our review of statutory dangerousness requires us
    to apply the facts to the statutory standard and presents a
    question of law that we review independently.                      Christopher S.,
    
    366 Wis. 2d 1
    , ¶50.
    IV.      ANALYSIS
    A.   The Commitment is Not a Moot Issue.
    ¶19     Mootness is a doctrine of judicial restraint.                          "'An
    issue is moot when its resolution will have no practical effect
    on the underlying controversy.'"               Portage Cty. v. J.W.K., 
    2019 WI 54
    , ¶11, 
    386 Wis. 2d 672
    , 
    927 N.W.2d 509
     (quoting PRN Assocs.
    LLC v. DOA, 
    2009 WI 53
    , ¶25, 
    317 Wis. 2d 656
    , 
    766 N.W.2d 559
    ).
    Because moot issues do not affect a live controversy, this court
    generally    declines    to    reach      them.      Id.,    ¶12.      But    we   may
    overlook     mootness    if    the     issue      falls   within     one     of    five
    9
    No.   2017AP2217
    exceptions: (1) the issue is of great public importance; (2) the
    issue involves the constitutionality of a statute; (3) the issue
    arises often and a decision from this court is essential; (4)
    the issue is likely to recur and must be resolved to avoid
    uncertainty; or (5) the issue is likely of repetition and evades
    review.      Id.
    ¶20   The   County    argues        that   D.K.'s    challenge      to    his
    commitment is moot because his commitment has expired and the
    issue does not fall in any of the exceptions.                 D.K. argues that
    the County forfeited its mootness argument.                   D.K. also argues
    that the issue is not moot because, even though the commitment
    expired, three collateral consequences of his commitment remain.
    First, D.K., having been committed under Wis. Stat. § 51.20, is
    liable for the costs of his care to the extent that he can pay.
    Wis.    Stat.      §§ 46.10(2)-(3).           Second,      D.K.'s     involuntary
    commitment order prohibits him from possessing a firearm, which
    would   otherwise     be   his    right.      U.S.   Const.   amend.      II;   Wis.
    Const. art. I, § 25.             Third, D.K. cites the negative stigmas
    often attached to mental commitment as a lasting consequence.
    ¶21   The court of appeals addressed mootness in a footnote
    of its opinion.        It concluded, "The [C]ounty does not address
    this argument in its response brief, so we do not opine on
    mootness here but rather reach the merits of this appeal.                        See
    State v. Verhagen, 
    2013 WI App 16
    , ¶38, 
    346 Wis. 2d 196
    , 
    827 N.W.2d 891
     (unrefuted arguments are deemed conceded)."                          D.K.,
    No. 2017AP2217, unpublished slip op., ¶3 n.3.                  But the County
    10
    No.   2017AP2217
    did    argue        mootness   before     this       court.         Accordingly,      we   do
    address the issue.
    ¶22     We have previously concluded that an expired initial
    commitment order is moot.                Christopher S., 
    366 Wis. 2d 1
    , ¶30.
    However,       the    issue    of   collateral        consequences'         effect    on    an
    otherwise moot commitment was not raised in that case.                               Then in
    J.W.K.,        we     specifically       left        open     the     question       whether
    collateral consequences render an expired commitment not moot.
    We     said,        "Our   holding       that       J.W.K.'s        [challenge     to      his
    commitment] is moot is limited to situations where, as here, no
    collateral          implications    of    the       commitment      order   are   raised."
    J.W.K., 
    386 Wis. 2d 672
    , ¶28 n.11.                          We said these collateral
    consequences may include a firearms ban, civil claims, and costs
    of care.       Id.      And now, in this case, D.K. has raised the issue
    of collateral consequences.
    ¶23     The idea that collateral consequences can render an
    otherwise moot issue not moot is nothing new in Wisconsin.                              Over
    40 years ago, in State v. Theoharopoulos, this court concluded
    that    collateral         consequences         could    render       a   prior   criminal
    conviction not moot.            
    72 Wis. 2d 327
    , 
    240 N.W.2d 635
     (1976).                      In
    that case, a criminal defendant challenged a prior conviction
    for which he had already served his sentence in full.                                Id. at
    329.     We noted that the defendant's challenge faced a mootness
    hurdle.      Id. at 332.        But the defendant argued that the issue of
    his    prior    conviction      was      not    moot.        Id.      Specifically,        the
    defendant argued that his prior conviction was not moot because
    he was "being held on a detainer and may be subjected to the
    11
    No.    2017AP2217
    further       penalty       of      deportation         because        of     the        [prior
    conviction]."            Id. at 333.        We concluded the prior conviction
    was not moot because "on the face of the record, there [was] a
    causal relationship between the defendant's present confinement
    and the prior conviction which he wishes to attack."                                Id.; see
    also    State      v.     Larkin,       Nos.     2007AP1646     through           2007AP1650,
    unpublished        slip     op.,     ¶6    (Wis.       Ct.    App.     Jul.        24,   2008)
    (concluding         the     defendant's          "challenge       to        his     completed
    sentences [was] not moot because he [was] still experiencing the
    collateral consequences of his convictions in the form of an
    enhanced federal sentence"); State v. Genz, No. 2016AP2475-CR,
    unpublished slip op., ¶10 (Wis. Ct. App. Jan. 30, 2018) (stating
    that a "'criminal case is moot only if it is shown that there is
    no possibility that any collateral legal consequences will be
    imposed      on    the    basis    of     the    challenged     conviction.' . . . A
    challenge to a conviction is not moot because the relief sought
    would free a defendant from all consequences flowing from his or
    her conviction") (citing Sibron v. New York, 
    392 U.S. 40
    , 57
    (1968); Lane v. Williams, 
    455 U.S. 624
    , 630 (1982)).
    ¶24    Of course, this is not a criminal case.                        But the logic
    of Theoharopoulos is just as sound here.                      In this case, there is
    a   "causal       relationship      between"         D.K.'s   firearms        ban    and    the
    civil commitment "which he wishes to attack."                           Theoharopoulos,
    72 Wis. 2d at 333.          The circuit court's commitment order says:
    The subject is prohibited from possessing any firearm.
    Federal law provides penalties for, and you may be
    prohibited from possessing, transporting, shipping,
    receiving, or purchasing a firearm, including, but not
    12
    No.   2017AP2217
    limited to, a rifle, shotgun, pistol, revolver, or
    ammunition, pursuant to 18 U.S.C. 921(a)(3) and (4)
    and 922(g)(4).    This prohibition shall remain in
    effect until lifted by the court.  Expiration of the
    mental commitment proceeding does not terminate this
    restriction.
    (Emphasis added.)
    ¶25      As   a    result   of   his   civil   commitment,   D.K.   is
    "prohibited from possessing any firearm."          And the "[e]xpiration
    of the mental commitment proceeding [did] not terminate this
    restriction."         Accordingly, though his commitment has expired,
    D.K. is still subject to the lasting collateral consequence of a
    firearms ban.         Since D.K. would otherwise have a fundamental
    right to bear arms, this is no minor consequence.                See U.S.
    Const. amend II; Wis. Const. art. I, § 25; see also District of
    Columbia v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
     (2008); Wisconsin Carry, Inc.
    v. City of Madison, 
    2017 WI 19
    , 
    373 Wis. 2d 543
    , 
    892 N.W.2d 233
    .
    On appeal, a decision in D.K.'s favor would void the firearms
    ban and therefore have a "practical effect."           Thus, we conclude
    that D.K.'s commitment is not a moot issue because it still
    subjects him to the collateral consequence of a firearms ban.7
    We now proceed to the merits.
    B.   Constitutional Rights And Commitment Proceedings
    ¶26      The Fifth Amendment declares that no person shall be
    "deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of
    7  Because we conclude that the firearms ban is itself
    sufficient to render D.K.'s commitment not moot, we need not
    address whether the collateral consequences of costs of care
    under Wis. Stat. § 46.10(2)-(3) or negative stigma would render
    the same result.
    13
    No.     2017AP2217
    law. . . . "         U.S.   Const.     amend.      V.      "'[C]ommitment           for       any
    purpose constitutes a significant deprivation of liberty that
    requires due process protection.'"                  J.W.K., 
    386 Wis. 2d 672
    , ¶16
    (quoting Jones v. United States, 
    463 U.S. 354
    , 361 (1983)).
    Accordingly, civil commitment cases are to be handled with the
    utmost diligence and care.                  Two due process protections are
    implicated in D.K.'s case——the what, and the how of commitment
    cases.
    ¶27    First, due process dictates what the petitioner must
    prove for commitment to be appropriate.                            The petitioner must
    prove that the individual is both mentally ill and dangerous.
    O'Connor v. Donaldson, 
    422 U.S. 563
    , 576 (1975) ("In short, a
    State       cannot     constitutionally            confine          without         more        a
    nondangerous individual who is capable of surviving safely in
    freedom by himself or with the help of willing and responsible
    family members or friends.")                It is not sufficient to show that
    the   individual      is    mentally     ill.        Id.      at    575.          Nor    is    it
    sufficient     to    show   "[m]ere      public      intolerance        or    animosity."
    Id.
    ¶28    Second, due process dictates how the petitioner must
    prove commitment is appropriate.                  The petitioner must prove that
    commitment     is    appropriate       by    clear      and    convincing          evidence.
    Addington v. Texas, 
    441 U.S. 428
    , 432-33 (1979).                              The Supreme
    Court    concluded     that      clear      and    convincing        evidence           is    the
    appropriate     burden      of   proof      in    commitment        cases    because          the
    individual liberty at stake is of great "weight and gravity."
    Id. at 427.         But, notably, the Supreme Court declined to adopt
    14
    No.      2017AP2217
    the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard in commitment cases
    because         that     standard     lends      itself        to     "specific,        knowable
    facts."           Id. at 430.         Civil commitment cases do not.                          "The
    subtleties          and     nuances        of     psychiatric           diagnosis         render
    certainties virtually beyond reach in most situations."                                        Id.
    The       clear    and    convincing       evidentiary          standard       balances        the
    individual's            significant       liberty       interest       with       the    State's
    interests          in     "providing       care      to       its      citizens         who   are
    unable . . . to            care     for    themselves"         and      "protect[ing]          the
    community from the dangerous tendencies of some who are mentally
    ill."       Id. at 425.
    ¶29     Accordingly, in a civil commitment case, due process
    requires          the    petitioner       to    prove     by        clear    and     convincing
    evidence that the individual is both mentally ill and dangerous.
    The       Wisconsin        Statutes       codify        the     same        and      additional
    protections.
    C.     Statutory Interpretation
    1.    Wisconsin Stat. § 51.20 Commitment Proceedings Generally
    ¶30     We pause a moment to discuss the general statutory
    framework for involuntary commitment proceedings in Wisconsin.
    Then we will interpret and apply the particular section at issue
    in    D.K.'s        case.         Involuntary        commitment             proceedings       are
    controlled by Wis. Stat. § 51.20.                    Just last term, we described
    these proceedings:
    To initiate commitment proceedings involving a
    mentally ill individual under Wis. Stat. § 51.20, the
    County must file a petition alleging the individual is
    (1) mentally ill and a proper subject for treatment,
    15
    No.    2017AP2217
    and    (2)     "[t]he   individual     is    dangerous."
    § 51.20(1)(a)1-2; see also [Waukesha Cty. v. J.W.J.,
    
    2017 WI 57
    , ¶18, 
    375 Wis. 2d 542
    , 
    895 N.W.2d 783
    ].
    The statute contains five standards by which the
    County   may    show  the   individual    is  dangerous.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.a.-e.     Each requires the County to
    identify recent acts or omissions demonstrating that
    the individual is a danger to himself or to others.
    See id.    During the final hearing, the County bears
    the burden of proving the allegations in the petition
    by clear and convincing evidence.        § 51.20(13)(e);
    J.W.J., 
    375 Wis. 2d 542
    , ¶19, 
    895 N.W.2d 783
    . If the
    grounds in the petition are proven, then the court
    "shall" order commitment.     § 51.20(13)(a)3; see also
    M.J. v. Milwaukee Cty. Combined Cmty. Servs. Bd., 
    122 Wis. 2d 525
    , 529-30, 
    362 N.W.2d 190
     (Ct. App. 1984).
    The initial period of commitment cannot exceed six
    months. § 51.20(13)(g)1.
    J.W.K., 
    386 Wis. 2d 672
    , ¶17.
    ¶31    In this case, the circuit court concluded that D.K.
    was mentally ill, a proper subject for commitment, and dangerous
    as defined under Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.               D.K. disputes the
    circuit court's conclusion as to dangerousness only.                    This court
    has never before interpreted § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.              We do so now.
    2.     Wisconsin Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. Dangerousness
    ¶32    Pursuant      to     Wis.         Stat.   § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.,         an
    individual is dangerous if he or she:
    Evidences a substantial probability of physical harm
    to other individuals as manifested by evidence of
    recent homicidal or other violent behavior, or by
    evidence that others are placed in reasonable fear of
    violent behavior and serious physical harm to them, as
    evidenced by a recent overt act, attempt or threat to
    do serious physical harm.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    ¶33    In this case, the County argues there was clear and
    convincing    evidence        that     D.K.     presented    "a     substantial
    16
    No.   2017AP2217
    probability of physical harm to other individuals as manifested
    by . . . evidence that others [were] placed in reasonable fear
    of   violent     behavior   and    serious       physical       harm   to    them,    as
    evidenced by a . . . threat to do serious physical harm."                         Wis.
    Stat.     § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.            Accordingly,           we    interpret     that
    language, and that language only.
    ¶34    Statutory interpretation "begins with the language of
    the statute."        State ex rel. Kalal v. Circuit Court for Dane
    Cty., 
    2004 WI 58
    , ¶45, 
    271 Wis. 2d 633
    , 
    681 N.W.2d 110
     (internal
    quotations omitted).        If its meaning is plain, then our inquiry
    ends.     Id.    We give statutory language "its common, ordinary,
    and accepted meaning."           Id.      We give "technical or specially-
    defined     words    or     phrases"         their     "technical       or    special
    definitional meaning."           Id.   "Context is important to meaning."
    Id., ¶46.       Accordingly, we interpret statutory language "not in
    isolation but as part of a whole."                   Id.     For the whole statute
    to have meaning, we must "give reasonable effect to every word"
    and "avoid surplusage."          Id.
    ¶35    While   this   court      has     never       before   interpreted      the
    entirety of Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b., Wisconsin courts have
    interpreted portions of the language included in this section.
    We begin with "substantial probability."                    In State v. Curiel, we
    interpreted the phrase "substantial probability" in Wis. Stat.
    § 980.02(2)(c) (1995-96) and "substantially probable" in Wis.
    Stat.   § 980.01(7)       (1995-96).           
    227 Wis. 2d 389
    ,      402-03,      
    597 N.W.2d 697
          (1999).     We    noted      that    both     the   legislature      and
    courts use the two phrases interchangeably and concluded that
    17
    No.    2017AP2217
    they "share a common meaning."           Id. at 403.      We then interpreted
    the plain language and concluded that the two phrases mean "much
    more likely than not."          Id. at 406.     Importantly, we connected
    this conclusion to the "substantial probability" language in ch.
    51.   We explained:
    Both ch. 980 and ch. 51 employ a "substantial
    probability" standard.     We held that the term
    "substantially probable" as used in ch. 980 means
    "much more likely than not."   As the terms are to be
    used in a consistent manner between the chapters, we
    can conceive of no reason why the term as used in ch.
    51 should be construed any differently than it is
    under ch. 980.
    Id. at 414.8     We also noted that the legislature had amended Wis.
    Stat. § 51.20 in 1977.          Id. at 410.         It replaced "substantial
    risk" with "substantial probability."               Id.   In this case, the
    County    did   not   dispute    that    "substantial     probability"    means
    "much more likely than not."            We now reaffirm that "substantial
    probability" in Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. means "much more
    likely than not."
    ¶36   Under the plain language of the statute, evidence of a
    "substantial probability of physical harm to other individuals"
    must be "manifested by" "evidence of recent homicidal or other
    violent     behavior"   or   "evidence       that    others   are    placed   in
    reasonable fear of violent behavior and serious physical harm to
    them, as evidenced by a recent overt act, attempt or threat to
    8Since our decision in State v. Curiel, 
    227 Wis. 2d 389
    ,
    
    597 N.W.2d 697
     (1999), the legislature has changed the language
    of both Wis. Stat. §§ 980.01(7) and 980.02(2)(c). Both sections
    now use the word "likely."    See §§ 980.01(7) and 980.02(2)(c)
    (2015-16)..
    18
    No.        2017AP2217
    do     serious       physical       harm."           Wis.        Stat.      § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    Because the County argues that it presented clear and convincing
    evidence of "reasonable fear," we focus our interpretation on
    that portion of the statute.
    ¶37     In    R.J.    v.    Winnebago         County,        the    court        of    appeals
    interpreted "evidence that others are placed in reasonable fear
    of violent behavior and serious physical harm to them" in Wis.
    Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.——the same section at issue here.                                            
    146 Wis. 2d 516
    , 
    431 N.W.2d 708
     (Ct. App. 1988).                               In that case, R.J.
    argued that "them" meant only the individuals threatened.                                           Id.
    at 521.        Under R.J.'s interpretation, there was no "reasonable
    fear" unless the threatened individual was subjectively aware of
    the threat.          Id.    The court of appeals correctly concluded that
    that    interpretation            was    too     narrow.            Id.    at   522.           R.J.'s
    interpretation would have rendered insufficient evidence that a
    person was placed in reasonable fear of serious physical harm to
    another      person.        The     court      of    appeals         rejected       that       narrow
    interpretation of the statute.                      Id.     Instead, it concluded that
    the statute was satisfied by "a showing . . . that others are
    placed    in     a   fearsome       position         by    a     [mentally        ill]       person's
    actions      even     if    the    person      placed          in   that    position          has    no
    subjective awareness of it."                   Id. at 523.           Neither party to this
    case challenges the court of appeals' interpretation in R.J.
    Rather,      consistent           with     R.J.,          both      parties        agreed         that
    Dr. Dave's testimony, as a third-party witness to D.K.'s alleged
    threat    to     harm      others,       could      be     sufficient        to    satisfy          the
    19
    No.   2017AP2217
    statute.       They     dispute      only        whether      Dr.   Dave's       testimony
    actually was sufficient.
    ¶38   We conclude that the court of appeals' interpretation
    in R.J. is consistent with the plain language of Wis. Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.            Specifically,         we    conclude       that     a    plain
    reading of the statute demonstrates that "them" in the second
    clause of that section refers back to "other individuals" in the
    first clause.         See § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. ("Evidences a substantial
    probability     of      physical          harm     to      other      individuals           as
    manifested . . . by          evidence        that       others       are     placed        in
    reasonable fear of violent behavior and serious physical harm to
    them . . . ") (emphasis added).                  Thus, under the plain language
    of the statute, evidence that a person was placed in reasonable
    fear of serious physical harm to that person or another person
    can   be    sufficient       to    establish       a     "reasonable        fear"     under
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    ¶39   In his briefing and at oral argument, D.K. argued that
    the   County   could     not       prove    dangerousness           under    Wis.     Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. without showing facts supporting an objective,
    "reasonable fear."           Specifically, D.K. argued that the County
    did   not   prove     that    he    was    dangerous          because   there        was    no
    testimony to facts concerning his demeanor at the time he made
    his threats.
    ¶40   We agree with D.K. that Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    establishes an objective test.                   But our agreement ends there,
    and   we     decline     to        adopt     D.K.'s        interpretation.                 His
    interpretation        would        read     out         the     first       portion         of
    20
    No.      2017AP2217
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.             Under      D.K.'s           interpretation,         evidence       of
    "reasonable      fear"      would       be    both        necessary    and     sufficient       to
    establish "a substantial probability of physical harm."                                         See
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.           Put simply, a "reasonable fear" would equal a
    "substantial         probability."             That        cannot     be     right      for    two
    reasons.        First,      the       plain     language         of    those      two      phrases
    suggests otherwise——different words require different meanings.9
    See State ex rel. DNR v. Wisconsin Court of Appeals, District
    IV, 
    2018 WI 25
    , ¶28, 
    380 Wis. 2d 354
    , 
    909 N.W.2d 114
     ("When the
    legislature uses different terms in the same act, we generally
    do    not    afford    them       the    same        meaning.")            Indeed,      at    oral
    argument, the County agreed that "the substantial probability is
    informed by the requirement of . . . threats that would put a
    reasonable person at fear of serious physical harm"; that those
    phrases must be given separate meaning in order to "harmonize"
    the    statutory      language.              Second,        if   "reasonable         fear"      and
    "substantial probability" in                   § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.             meant the same
    thing, then one or the other would be surplusage.                                       We must
    interpret statutory language "to give reasonable effect to every
    word" and "avoid surplusage."                   Kalal, 
    271 Wis. 2d 633
    , ¶46; see
    also       Antonin    Scalia      &     Bryan        A.    Garner,       Reading      Law:      The
    Interpretation         of    Legal       Texts,           174-79      (2012)      ("Surplusage
    Canon");      id.     at    174       ("If    possible,          every     word      and      every
    Common sense suggests that "reasonable" is something less
    9
    than "substantial."    Thus, D.K.'s interpretation would likely
    provide less protection for the mentally ill than the one we
    adopt today.
    21
    No.      2017AP2217
    provision is to be given effect. . . . None should needlessly be
    given      an    interpretation         that       causes    it     to   duplicate       another
    provision or to have no consequence.").
    ¶41       We    conclude     that       a    finding     of    a   "reasonable       fear"
    supports a separate finding of a "substantial probability."                                     In
    other words, evidence of a "reasonable fear" is necessary but
    not   automatically          sufficient            alone     to     conclude     there     is    a
    "substantial          probability        of       physical    harm"      under    Wis.     Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.            A "reasonable fear" may, and perhaps often
    will, establish a "substantial probability."                              But it will not
    necessarily always end the analysis.
    ¶42       In sum, we conclude that the plain language of Wis.
    Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. requires a showing that it is much more
    likely than not that the individual will cause physical harm to
    other individuals.                Id.     This conclusion can be supported by
    evidence that at least one person was placed in "reasonable fear
    of violent behavior and serious physical harm"                                 to that same
    person      or       another.10         Id.         This     reasonable      fear       must    be
    "evidenced by" a "recent overt act," an "attempt," or a "threat
    to do serious physical harm."                     Id.
    ¶43       We now proceed to decide the merits of D.K.'s case:
    whether there was clear and convincing evidence at the final
    hearing          that      D.K.         was        dangerous         under       Wis.      Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    It can also be supported by "evidence of recent homicidal
    10
    or other violent behavior" but that language is not at issue in
    this case. See Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    22
    No.     2017AP2217
    D.   There Was Clear And Convincing Evidence of Dangerousness.
    ¶44       At the outset, we note that D.K. does not challenge
    any    of     the       circuit       court's        factual     findings     as      clearly
    erroneous.           Nor       does    D.K.     challenge         the     circuit     court's
    conclusions that D.K. had a mental illness and was a proper
    subject for commitment.                Thus, we review the evidence presented
    at the final hearing and the circuit court's findings to decide
    whether there was clear and convincing evidence that D.K. was
    dangerous as defined under Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    ¶45       At the final hearing, corporation counsel asked Dr.
    Dave, "Based on your interview of [D.K.] were you able to form
    an opinion as to whether or not he had presented a substantial
    risk     of      danger    to     either      himself      or     others?"          Dr.    Dave
    responded, "To other people."                   The clear meaning of Dr. Dave's
    testimony is that D.K. "presented a substantial risk of danger"
    "[t]o other people."
    ¶46       Dr. Dave then explained his conclusion.                          He stated
    that   D.K.       was     "paranoid      about       people      around    him.       He   had
    thoughts of harming those people who were talking about him,
    making fun of him.                He also was making some threats against
    [the] police department because he had thought that they were
    not listening to him . . . ."                    Corporation counsel then asked,
    "Did he tell you what his intentions were with regard to the
    police      or    any     of    the    persons        in   the    public?"          Dr.    Dave
    responded, "Yes."              "He plans on strangulating the police officer
    and also killing the people who made fun of him."                            Dr. Dave also
    23
    No.    2017AP2217
    testified    that    D.K.'s    threats      were   directly   related     to   his
    delusional disorder.
    ¶47     The circuit court concluded:
    [Dr. Dave] testified that [D.K.] is mentally ill, that
    [D.K.] is a proper subject for treatment.            He
    testified that he is a danger to others, specifically
    that he is paranoid, that he has thoughts of harming
    people and has made threats to the police department
    that he wanted--he had thoughts that he wanted to
    strangle police and kill people.    These are homicidal
    thoughts and that's what the doctor testified to.
    (Emphasis added.)           The circuit court then confirmed that its
    conclusions fell under Wis. Stat. § 51.20(a)(1)2.b.                    D.K. does
    not challenge any of the circuit court's factual findings as
    clearly erroneous.
    ¶48     When we review this record, it is uncontroverted that
    Dr. Dave witnessed D.K.'s threats to harm others and testified
    that he "plan[ned] on strangulating the police officer and also
    killing the people who made fun of him."                  Dr. Dave testified
    that D.K. presented a substantial risk of danger "[t]o other
    people."     Additionally, the circuit court found that D.K. made
    threats to the police department and wanted to strangle police
    and kill people.
    ¶49     We conclude that Dr. Dave's testimony and the circuit
    court's    factual    findings      established    that   D.K.   was    dangerous
    under     Wis.    Stat.     § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.        There    was      clear   and
    convincing       evidence    that    D.K.    "[e]vidence[d]      a   substantial
    probability of physical harm to other individuals as manifested
    by . . . evidence that others [were] placed in reasonable fear
    24
    No.        2017AP2217
    of    violent      behavior        and    serious          physical     harm     to     them,          as
    evidenced       by     a . . . threat            to     do    serious       physical          harm."
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    ¶50     D.K.       argues        that     this        evidence       is     negated             by
    statements Dr. Dave made during cross-examination.                                See Pucci v.
    Rausch, 
    51 Wis. 2d 513
    , 519, 
    187 N.W.2d 138
     (1971) (stating that
    "an     expert       opinion       expressed          in     terms    of    possibility                or
    conjecture is insufficient").                        Specifically, D.K. argues that
    certain      statements           Dr.     Dave        made    failed       to     establish            a
    "substantial probability."                 Dr. Dave stated that D.K.: "could be
    potentially          dangerous";         "can     become       potentially            dangerous";
    "could    be       still     potentially         dangerous";          "probably         may       have
    acted";      and     "most    possibly . . . might                 act."        Dr.    Dave       also
    stated, "I don't think I can make [a] difference whether he will
    act on his thoughts or not."
    ¶51     We agree with D.K. that this equivocal testimony alone
    would     be     at       least    arguably           insufficient         to     establish            a
    "substantial probability."                 We will not attempt to discern what
    the      phrases           "probably           may         have       acted"           or         "most
    possibly . . . might act" mean.                       We need not so attempt because
    we do not review Dr. Dave's statements in isolation.                                   Rather, we
    review    his      testimony       and     the    circuit         court's       findings          as    a
    whole.       As we concluded above, Dr. Dave's testimony on direct-
    examination established clear and convincing evidence that D.K.
    was    dangerous       under       Wis.    Stat.           § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.                And    his
    testimony       as    a    whole        supports       that       conclusion.           Dr.       Dave
    testified that D.K. presented a substantial risk of danger "to
    25
    No.   2017AP2217
    other people."          He never negated or withdrew his conclusion that
    D.K. was dangerous.
    ¶52     While       mere         possibility           and      conjecture           are
    insufficient, we will not disregard Dr. Dave's testimony simply
    because he expressed something less than certainty.                                The statute
    does     not     require          certainty,       but        rather        a     "substantial
    probability."           Wis.      Stat.    § 51.20(a)(1)2.b.                Furthermore,     we
    have never required a mental illness expert to be clairvoyant
    and we decline to do so now.                      See Addington, 441 U.S. at 430
    ("The    subtleties        and    nuances    of     psychiatric         diagnosis       render
    certainties virtually beyond reach in most situations."); see
    also D.K., No. 2017AP2217, unpublished slip op., ¶9 ("To the
    extent       that     [D.K.]       criticizes       [Dr.]       Dave's          testimony    as
    'speculat[ive],' Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. did not require
    [Dr.] Dave, in providing an expert opinion, to be clairvoyant of
    [D.K.'s]       future      acts    in     order    to    establish          a     'substantial
    probability' of harm due to [D.K.'s] recent threats and his
    medical diagnosis.")
    ¶53     D.K.     also      argues    that        Dr.    Dave's           testimony   was
    insufficient under Outagamie County v. Melanie L., 
    2013 WI 67
    ,
    
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    , 
    833 N.W.2d 607
    .                    In that case, we reversed an
    involuntary medication order under Wis. Stat. § 51.61(1)(g)4.b.
    Id., ¶¶96-97.          Under that section, the county "must prove that
    the     person        is    substantially           incapable          of        applying    an
    understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of particular
    medication . . . ."              Id., ¶94.        We reversed because the expert
    in that case misstated the substance of the statutory standard.
    26
    No.     2017AP2217
    The expert testified that Melanie was not "'capable of applying
    the benefits of the medication to her advantage' rather than
    that     she      was       substantially           incapable      of     applying        an
    understanding          of   the    advantages,       [and]    disadvantages"        of   the
    medication.        Id., ¶6.        We concluded that the county did not meet
    its burden of proof because the expert's testimony "did not
    sufficiently address and meet the statutory standard."                                   Id.,
    ¶97.    We explained:
    Medical experts must apply                 the standards set out in
    the competency statute. An                 expert's use of different
    language to explain his or                 her conclusions should be
    linked back to the standards               in the statute.
    Id.
    ¶54     D.K.     uses      Melanie    L.    to    argue   that    Dr.     Dave    was
    required to testify to the exact statutory standard and that his
    statements        on    cross-examination           were     therefore    insufficient.
    But the issue in Melanie L. was that the expert's testimony
    misstated the substance of the statutory standard.                          That is not
    true here.         Dr. Dave did not misstate the substance of the
    standard; he merely failed to recite it exactly.                                Melanie L.
    does not stand for the proposition that we require witnesses or
    circuit courts to recite magic words.                      Rather, it stands for the
    proposition that a medical expert's testimony and conclusions
    "should      be   linked       back    to    the     standards     in    the     statute."
    Melanie L., 
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    , ¶97.                   Dr. Dave testified that D.K.:
    was    paranoid         and       suffered        from     delusions;      presented       a
    "substantial risk of danger" "to other people"; and "plan[ned]
    on    strangulating         the    police    officer       and   also    killing"    other
    27
    No.     2017AP2217
    people.       (Emphasis added.)                   This is not the exact statutory
    language,         but   it    does     "link          back"       to       it.      See        Wis.    Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.             (requiring           a     "substantial               probability              of
    physical           harm         to      other           individuals                 as         manifested
    by . . . evidence that others [were] placed in reasonable fear
    of   violent       behavior          and     serious         physical            harm    to     them,       as
    evidenced         by    a . . . threat             to    do       serious           physical          harm")
    (emphasis added).
    ¶55    We pause once more to speak to the bench and the bar.
    We do so because finality in a commitment proceeding is very
    important         to    all     concerned.              D.K.'s         commitment          expired          in
    November      2017,       and    he    will      not     have          a    final       answer        to   the
    question whether his commitment was appropriate until 2020.                                                Had
    certain      things       happened         in    the     circuit           court     below,       perhaps
    D.K.'s    appeal        would        have    been       unnecessary.                The        record      was
    sufficient in this case, but it could have been more detailed.
    The County could have further developed its medical expert's
    testimony, moved the expert's report into evidence, and properly
    provided notice of its witnesses.                        Also, the circuit court could
    have   made        more      detailed        and       thorough            factual       findings          and
    clarified its legal conclusions.                             A commitment is no trivial
    matter.      Taking more time at the circuit court can save years of
    uncertainty on appeal.
    V.      CONCLUSION
    ¶56    We conclude that D.K.'s commitment is not a moot issue
    because      it    still      subjects          him     to    a    firearms         ban.          We       also
    28
    No.     2017AP2217
    conclude that there was clear and convincing evidence at the
    final hearing that D.K. was dangerous as defined under Wis.
    Stat. 51.20(1)(a)2.b.   Thus, we affirm the court of appeals.
    By   the   Court.—The   decision   of   the   court   of     appeals   is
    affirmed.
    29
    No.    2017AP2217.rgb
    ¶57       REBECCA GRASSL BRADLEY, J.              (concurring).            I agree
    with the majority that when a commitment order infringes the
    individual right to bear arms with a restriction that remains in
    effect even after expiration of the commitment, a challenge to
    an involuntary commitment is not moot merely because the order
    has expired.         I also agree with the majority's conclusion that
    there     was    clear    and   convincing       evidence      at    the    commitment
    hearing         of    D.K.'s        dangerousness          under          Wis.      Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b (2015-16).            Majority op., ¶3.1           However, I write
    separately because I disagree with the majority's methodology of
    statutory        analysis.          Instead     of     relying       exclusively      on
    precedent, the majority should have analyzed and applied the
    plain     meaning        of   the    statutory         text.         Accordingly,       I
    respectfully concur and I join parts I, II, III, IV.A, IV.B, and
    IV.C.1 of the majority opinion.
    I
    ¶58       Resolving D.K.'s challenge requires interpretation of
    Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.            Whenever we construe a statute, we
    "begin[] with the language of the statute."                    State ex rel. Kalal
    v. Circuit Court of Dane Cty., 
    2004 WI 58
    , ¶45, 
    271 Wis. 2d 633
    ,
    
    681 N.W.2d 110
     (quoted source omitted).                   If the meaning of the
    statute is plain and unambiguous, we stop the inquiry.                           See id.
    (citations omitted).            While the majority recites these seminal
    principles of statutory interpretation, see majority op., ¶34,
    it   only   superficially        applies       them,    opting      to    discuss   past
    1All subsequent references to the Wisconsin Statutes are to
    the 2015-16 version unless otherwise indicated.
    1
    No.   2017AP2217.rgb
    precedent rather than conducting a thorough textual analysis.
    See majority op., ¶¶35-37.               I begin with the text of § 51.20.
    ¶59      In    order      for   a    county        to    involuntarily      commit       an
    individual under Wis. Stat. § 51.20, a court must find that the
    individual    is:       (1)     mentally      ill;      (2)    a   proper     subject       for
    treatment;        and   (3)    dangerous.              § 51.20(1)(a)1-2;         see    also
    Waukesha Cty. v. J.W.J., 
    2017 WI 57
    , ¶18, 
    375 Wis. 2d 542
    , 
    895 N.W.2d 783
             (quoted      source        omitted).               Wisconsin        Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.a-e provides an exclusive list of five alternate
    means   of        establishing          the   requisite         dangerousness.               An
    individual is dangerous under the statute if he:
    (a)      "Evidences a substantial probability of physical harm
    to himself or herself as manifested by evidence of
    recent threats of or attempts at suicide or serious
    bodily harm."
    (b)      "Evidences a substantial probability of physical harm
    to    other      individuals         as    manifested by         evidence       of
    recent     homicidal        or   other         violent     behavior,      or   by
    evidence that others are placed in reasonable fear of
    violent behavior and serious physical harm to them, as
    evidenced by a recent overt act, attempt or threat to
    do serious physical harm."
    (c)      "Evidences        such       impaired          judgment,     manifested         by
    evidence of a pattern of recent acts or omissions,
    that there is a substantial probability of physical
    impairment or injury to himself or herself or other
    individuals."
    2
    No.   2017AP2217.rgb
    (d)   "Evidences     behavior         manifested        by        recent    acts     or
    omissions that, due to mental illness, he or she is
    unable to satisfy basic needs for nourishment, medical
    care, shelter or safety without prompt and adequate
    treatment    so     that    a       substantial       probability          exists
    that death, serious physical injury, serious physical
    debilitation,        or     serious          physical         disease        will
    imminently ensue unless the individual receives prompt
    and adequate treatment for this mental illness."
    (e)   "[E]vidences      either        incapability           of     expressing       an
    understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of
    accepting      medication              or      treatment             and      the
    alternatives, or substantial incapability of applying
    an understanding of the advantages, disadvantages, and
    alternatives to his or her mental illness in order to
    make an informed choice as to whether to accept or
    refuse   medication         or       treatment;        and        evidences    a
    substantial probability, as demonstrated by both the
    individual's treatment history and his or her recent
    acts or omissions, that the individual needs care or
    treatment      to         prevent           further         disability         or
    deterioration and a substantial probability that he or
    she will, if left untreated, lack services necessary
    for his or her health or safety and suffer severe
    mental, emotional, or physical harm that will result
    in the loss of the individual's ability to function
    independently       in     the       community         or     the     loss     of
    3
    No.   2017AP2217.rgb
    cognitive     or     volitional   control    over       his   or     her
    thoughts or actions."
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.a-e.
    ¶60   Both parties agree that subdivision 2.b is the only
    provision at issue in D.K.'s case and both the court of appeals
    and   the    circuit     court     analyzed   dangerousness         under       that
    subdivision.    Because the text of subdivision 2.b is plain and
    unambiguous, my review of whether D.K. was dangerous begins and
    ends with the text.
    ¶61   Proving dangerousness under subdivision 2.b requires
    showing a "substantial probability of physical harm to other
    individuals[.]"        Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.            This court has
    already determined that "substantial probability" means "much
    more likely than not."           State v. Curiel, 
    227 Wis. 2d 389
    , 413-
    14,   
    597 N.W.2d 697
        (1999).       Subdivision     2.b    provides        three
    exclusive ways to demonstrate a person is much more likely than
    not to physically harm other individuals:
    (1)   "evidence of recent homicidal" . . . behavior;
    (2)   evidence of recent "other violent behavior"; or
    (3)   "evidence that others are placed in reasonable fear of
    violent behavior and serious physical harm to them[.]"2
    2In R.J. v. Winnebago Cty., the court of appeals determined
    the word "them" did not refer only to the individual threatened,
    but also included any member of the "great mass of humankind" in
    the class of people denoted "others" by the statute.          
    146 Wis. 2d 516
    , 521-23, 
    431 N.W.2d 708
     (Ct. App. 1988).      Because
    R.J. is a published court of appeals opinion, and this court has
    never overruled it, its holding stands as binding law in this
    state.   See Wis. Stat. § 752.41(2).    Neither party asks us to
    overrule it.
    4
    No.    2017AP2217.rgb
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.            D.K.'s case involves the third way——"others
    [were] placed in reasonable fear of violent behavior and serious
    physical harm to them[.]"                   The statute lists three alternate
    means of evidencing a "reasonable fear of violent behavior and
    serious physical harm":
    (1)    "[A] recent overt act";
    (2)    A recent "attempt"; or
    (3)    A recent "threat to do serious physical harm."
    Id.
    ¶62    The text of subdivision 2.b plainly describes what is
    necessary to find a person dangerous.                             The record must evidence
    a "recent overt act," a recent "attempt," or a recent "threat to
    do    serious      physical       harm."        Any        one    of   these      three    factual
    predicates         suffices       to    show      that           others     were     "placed     in
    reasonable         fear     of     violent        behavior          and     serious       physical
    harm[.]"          Establishing a "reasonable fear of violent behavior
    and    serious      physical        harm"       is     one       way   of    demonstrating        a
    "substantial          probability            of            physical       harm       to       other
    individuals[.]"             Establishing          a        "substantial        probability       of
    physical harm to other individuals" is one way of showing a
    person       is     dangerous          within         the     meaning        of     Wis.      Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.             The    analysis           is    complete.        As     evidence     of
    "others" being "placed in reasonable fear of violent behavior
    and serious physical harm to them[]" a "threat to do serious
    physical          harm[]"         constitutes              satisfactory            evidence      of
    dangerousness; the statutory standard is met.
    5
    No.      2017AP2217.rgb
    ¶63    The majority asserts that "evidence of a 'reasonable
    fear' is necessary but not automatically sufficient alone to
    conclude     there     is     a   'substantial               probability         of    physical
    harm[.]'"      Majority op., ¶41.                The majority misunderstands the
    statute.       The    legislature         decided           that,    among       other   proof,
    "evidence that others are placed in reasonable fear of violent
    behavior and serious physical harm to them[]" constitutes one of
    the     manifestations        that    a     person          "evidences       a    substantial
    probability     of    physical       harm       to    other     individuals[.]"                Wis.
    Stat.      § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.              In        other     words,    the       legislature
    defined,      with         some   particularity,               what      establishes             "a
    substantial probability of physical harm" to others and included
    "others" being "placed in reasonable fear of violent behavior
    and serious physical harm" as evidence meeting that standard.
    ¶64    Puzzlingly, the majority believes this interpretation
    equates     "reasonable       fear"       and       "substantial       probability"            and,
    along with the dissent, invokes the surplusage canon.                                    Neither
    the   majority       nor    the   dissent           explain     their     accusations           of
    duplication.     In its analysis, the majority neglects to consider
    the context and structure of the statute.                           While the legislature
    embedded many layers in the determination of dangerousness, the
    language it used plainly says an individual is dangerous if he
    "[e]vidences a substantial probability of physical harm to other
    individuals" and a "substantial probability of physical harm"
    may   be    manifested       by   "evidence           that     others     are         placed    in
    reasonable fear of violent behavior and serious physical harm to
    them," which in turn may be evidenced by three separate actions:
    6
    No.       2017AP2217.rgb
    (1) a recent overt act; (2) an attempt to do serious physical
    harm;    or    (3)    a     threat    to    do       serious       physical       harm.         This
    interpretation of the statute gives effect to every word and
    every    provision,         ignoring       none.           In    contrast,        the     majority
    offers no explanation for its conclusory assertion that "[a]
    'reasonable         fear'    may,    and     perhaps            often    will,        establish    a
    'substantial           probability[]'                 [b]ut . . . not                 necessarily
    always[.]"       Majority op., ¶41.              As a result of this equivocation
    by the majority, future litigants and courts may ponder when a
    "reasonable         fear"    may     or    may       not    establish        "a       substantial
    probability of physical harm" but the legislature already told
    us——in the statutory language.
    II
    ¶65    D.K. argues that Dr. Dave's testimony at the final
    hearing       was     insufficient         to        meet       the     legal     standard        of
    dangerousness         under        subdivision          2.b.             Because        Dr.     Dave
    repeatedly          used     phrases       such        as        "could     be        potentially
    dangerous[,]" "can become potentially dangerous[,]"                                     "could be
    still potentially dangerous[,]" and "I don't think I can make
    the difference whether he will act on his thoughts or not[,]"
    D.K.     argues       the     evidence       was        insufficient             to     find     him
    "substantial[ly] probab[le]" or "much more likely than not" to
    "physically         harm     other        individuals[.]"                  See        Wis.     Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b; Curiel, 227 Wis. 2d at 413-14.
    ¶66    Both D.K. and the dissent would impose an obligation
    on     medical      experts     to     use       particular             statutory       terms     in
    7
    No.   2017AP2217.rgb
    expressing their opinions.3               We do not impose a "magic words"
    requirement in the law and this court has repeatedly rejected
    them.      See State v. Lepsch, 
    2017 WI 27
    , ¶36, 
    374 Wis. 2d 98
    , 
    892 N.W.2d 682
             (rejecting     in    the       context     of     a    circuit     court
    inquiring about juror bias); State v. Wantland, 
    2014 WI 58
    , ¶33,
    
    355 Wis. 2d 135
    ,        
    848 N.W.2d 810
           (rejecting          in    context     of
    withdrawing consent under the Fourth Amendment); Elections Bd.
    v. Wisconsin Mfrs. & Commerce, 
    227 Wis. 2d 650
    , 654, 669-70, 
    597 N.W.2d 721
     (1999) (rejecting in context of what is required to
    be "express advocacy"); see also Patchak v. Zinke, 
    138 S. Ct. 897
    , 905 (2018) (noting that the Supreme Court refrains from
    reading       statutes      to    "incant         magic     words"       (quoted     source
    omitted)).         The dissent asserts that "risk" is not synonymous
    with       "probability"      and      because      Dr.     Dave     testified        to    a
    substantial risk of danger, and not a substantial probability,
    there was not clear and convincing evidence of dangerousness
    under the statute.          See dissent, ¶¶79, 81, 83, 84.
    ¶67       The dissent is correct that risk and probability have
    different meanings.           See Risk, Black's Law Dictionary (11th ed.
    2019) ("The uncertainty of a result, happening, or loss; the
    chance      of    injury,   damage,     or    loss;       esp.,    the     existence       and
    extent of the possibility of harm[.]"); Probability, Black's Law
    The dissent relies on Outagamie Cty. v. Melanie L., 2013
    
    3 WI 67
    , 
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    , 
    833 N.W.2d 607
    , for the proposition that
    medical experts must testify to the specific words set forth in
    Wis. Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.    See dissent, ¶¶85-87.    To the
    extent Melanie L. can be read to impose such a "magic words"
    requirement, I would clarify its holding and align it with our
    other jurisprudence. See supra ¶66.
    8
    No.   2017AP2217.rgb
    Dictionary (11th ed. 2019) ("Something that is likely; what is
    likely[]"; "The degree to which something is likely to occur,
    often       expressed       mathematically;          Possibility[]";       "The       quality,
    state, or condition of being more likely to happen or to have
    happened than not; the character of a proposition or supposition
    that       is    more   likely         true   than    false.").       Contrary         to   the
    dissent's conclusion, this distinction is not dispositive.                                  The
    dissent erroneously conflates the role of the court and the role
    of the medical expert in commitment cases.                           While the medical
    expert          testifies    to    the    facts,      the   circuit      court    makes      an
    independent legal judgment as to whether                           the facts      meet the
    legal standard set forth in the commitment statute.
    ¶68        Contrary to the arguments of the dissent and D.K., it
    is immaterial that the medical expert used "substantial risk" or
    variants         of   "could      be    potentially     dangerous[.]"            It    is   the
    court's responsibility to determine whether the testimony and
    other evidence support a finding of a "substantial probability
    of physical harm" as required by the statute.4                             Cf. Winnebago
    Cty.       v.    Christopher      S.,     
    2016 WI 1
    ,    ¶50,   
    366 Wis. 2d 1
    ,        
    878 N.W.2d 109
     (discussing how courts must apply facts to the legal
    statutory standard).
    Because
    4        circuit   courts   bear  the  responsibility  of
    determining whether the evidence satisfies the statutory
    standard, circuit courts must expressly make independent factual
    findings on the record, separate from any legal conclusions.
    Merely reciting testimony or melding factual findings with legal
    conclusions can constrain appellate review.    Because appellate
    courts overturn only factual findings that are "clearly
    erroneous," there must be distinct separation of factfinding
    from legal conclusions.    Cf. Winnebago Cty. v. Christopher S.,
    
    2016 WI 1
    , ¶50, 
    366 Wis. 2d 1
    , 
    878 N.W.2d 109
     (discussing the
    standard of review in commitment cases).
    9
    No.    2017AP2217.rgb
    ¶69     Due    to     the     significant         deprivation        of     liberty
    associated with an involuntary commitment, due process requires
    that the evidence be clear and convincing.                    Addington v. Texas,
    
    441 U.S. 418
    , 433 (1979).              The evidence at the final hearing in
    D.K.'s    case    clearly    and       convincingly     supported        the    circuit
    court's   determination         that    D.K.   was    dangerous      based     on   D.K.
    evidencing "a substantial probability of physical harm to other
    individuals[.]"      Most importantly, the circuit court found that
    D.K. "has thoughts of harming people and has made threats to the
    police department that he wanted——he had thoughts that he wanted
    to strangle police and kill people."                   D.K. does not challenge
    this finding as clearly erroneous.                    As this factual finding
    involves a recent "threat to do serious physical harm[,]" made
    to Dr. Dave, it alone is sufficient to find that "others are
    placed in a reasonable fear of violent behavior and serious
    physical harm to them," which is enough to find "a substantial
    probability of physical harm to other individuals[.]"                          See Wis.
    Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b; supra ¶¶61-62.
    ¶70     While this threat alone was sufficient for the circuit
    court to find      D.K.     dangerous under          subdivision 2.b, it also
    found:    (1) D.K. had homicidal thoughts; (2) D.K. has a mental
    illness    that    causes       delusional      disorders;      and      (3)      D.K.'s
    delusions affected D.K.'s ability to recognize reality.                              The
    uncontroverted      evidence       introduced        during    the      hearing     also
    demonstrated that D.K.:           (1) posed a substantial risk of danger
    to "other people"; (2) had plans to strangle police and kill
    those individuals making fun of him; (3) "could be potentially
    10
    No.   2017AP2217.rgb
    dangerous"; (4) had feelings of persecution; and (5) was at risk
    of acting on his violent thoughts because they are a product of
    his delusions and he is unable to recognize reality.
    ¶71   The circuit court's factual findings that D.K. "has
    made threats to the police department" and "that he wanted to
    strangle police and kill people[]" alone render D.K. dangerous
    under    Wis.      Stat.     § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.            The    additional         factual
    findings, and uncontroverted hearing testimony in the record,
    provide      additional      clear    and     convincing        evidence       of    D.K.'s
    dangerousness.
    III
    ¶72   The majority is correct that this case is not moot.
    When a commitment order infringes the individual right to bear
    arms    protected      by     the    Second       Amendment      and     the    Wisconsin
    Constitution, a challenge to an involuntary commitment is not
    moot    if   the    firearm       prohibition      survives      expiration         of   the
    commitment.         See U.S. Const. amend. II; Wis. Const. Art. 1,
    § 25.
    ¶73   A     textual    analysis      of     Wis.    Stat.       § 51.20(1)(a)2.b
    shows the County established D.K.'s dangerousness.                           The circuit
    court's      finding       that     D.K.    "made        threats       to    the    police
    department[,]" is not clearly erroneous.                    These "threat[s] to do
    serious physical harm[,]" expressed to Dr. Dave, fulfill one of
    the    factual     predicates       sufficient      to    show     "that       others    are
    placed in a reasonable fear of violent behavior and serious
    physical harm to them[.]"             That showing, in turn, satisfies one
    of     the    tests    for        dangerousness       under        § 51.20(1)(a)2——"a
    11
    No.   2017AP2217.rgb
    substantial   probability    of          physical    harm       to   other
    individuals[.]"    Because   the        majority's   analysis    fails   to
    clearly apply the plain words of the statute, I respectfully
    concur.
    ¶74   I am authorized to state that Justice DANIEL KELLY
    joins this concurrence.
    12
    No.    2017AP2217.rfd
    ¶75    REBECCA FRANK DALLET, J.             (dissenting).        There is no
    dispute that D.K. suffered from delusional disorder and that he
    made statements regarding plans to strangle a police officer and
    to kill people that he perceived to be making fun of him.                          The
    issue is whether the County presented sufficient evidence that
    D.K. was dangerous as a result of his disorder.                       In concluding
    that the testimony of Dr. Dave was sufficient to establish that
    D.K. was dangerous, the majority ignores the statutory standard
    set   forth    in     Wis.   Stat.    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.          and        implicitly
    overrules this court's holding in Melanie L. requiring medical
    experts to apply that statutory standard.                     Outagamie Cty. v.
    Melanie L., 
    2013 WI 67
    , 
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    , 
    833 N.W.2d 607
    .                           For
    this reason, I dissent.
    ¶76    The United States Supreme Court has acknowledged that
    involuntary commitment is "'a massive curtailment of liberty'
    and in consequence 'requires due process protection.'"                        Vitek v.
    Jones, 
    445 U.S. 480
    , 491-92 (1980) (citation omitted).                         Because
    of the significant liberty interest involved in civil commitment
    cases, the standard of proof of clear and convincing evidence is
    required to meet due process guarantees.                 Addington v. Texas,
    
    441 U.S. 418
    ,    432-33     (1979).         "This   Court        has     mandated
    an intermediate       standard       of       proof——'clear     and         convincing
    evidence'——when the individual interests at stake in a state
    proceeding      are     both     'particularly important'               and      'more
    substantial than mere loss of money.'"                Santosky v. Kramer, 
    455 U.S. 745
    , 756 (1982) (quoting Addington, 441 U.S. at 424).
    1
    No.    2017AP2217.rfd
    ¶77    To   commit   an     individual    pursuant     to     Wis.    Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b., a county must prove by clear and convincing
    evidence that an individual is dangerous because he or she:
    Evidences a substantial probability of physical harm
    to other individuals as manifested by evidence of
    recent homicidal or other violent behavior, or by
    evidence that others are placed in reasonable fear of
    violent behavior and serious physical harm to them, as
    evidenced by a recent overt act, attempt or threat to
    do serious physical harm.
    (Emphasis added.)    Whether the facts in the record satisfy the
    statutory standard for commitment under § 51.20(1)(a)2.b. is a
    question of law which this court reviews de novo.                Waukesha Cty.
    v. J.W.J., 
    2017 WI 57
    , ¶15, 
    375 Wis. 2d 542
    , 
    895 N.W.2d 783
    .
    ¶78    I agree with the majority's statutory analysis of Wis.
    Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b., see majority op. ¶¶30-42, because it
    gives effect to every statutory term, unlike the concurrence's
    analysis which renders the standard of "substantial probability"
    surplusage.     However,    I   part   ways   with   the   majority       as   to
    whether there was clear and convincing evidence presented to the
    circuit court that D.K. "evidence[d] a substantial probability
    of physical harm."
    ¶79    The majority relies solely on Dr. Dave's testimony on
    direct    examination1     to   support    its   conclusion        that    D.K.
    "[e]vidences a substantial probability of physical harm to other
    1  As the majority correctly notes, the County did not move
    Dr. Dave's report into evidence at the hearing and therefore it
    is not part of the record. Majority op., ¶6 & n.4.
    2
    No.   2017AP2217.rfd
    individuals."2          Dr. Dave was asked the following question on
    direct examination regarding the likelihood of D.K.'s current
    dangerousness:           "Based on your interview of [D.K.], were you
    able       to   form   an    opinion    as     to   whether        or    not   [D.K.]    had
    presented a substantial risk                  of danger to either himself or
    others?"         Dr. Dave answered:       "To other people."
    ¶80       The   majority      opinion        pays     lip        service    to    the
    importance of reviewing Dr. Dave's testimony "as a whole," yet
    ignores his testimony on cross-examination, which it concedes
    was "at least arguably insufficient to establish a 'substantial
    probability.'"          Majority op., ¶51.            Dr. Dave stated on cross-
    examination that he was not aware of any times that D.K. had
    acted on his thoughts.               When asked about the likelihood that
    D.K. would act on his thoughts, Dr. Dave opined that:                             D.K. "can
    act" on his thoughts; he "can become potentially dangerous"; he
    "could be still potentially dangerous"; and he "probably may
    have acted" on his thoughts.                  When asked whether Dr. Dave could
    tell "whether or not he was saying something [D.K.] was going to
    act    on       or   maybe   [was]     just    speaking      in     anger,"       Dr.   Dave
    responded "I don't think I can make the difference whether he
    will act on his thoughts or not."                          These statements do not
    support a finding by clear and convincing evidence that D.K. was
    While the circuit court's factual findings in this case
    2
    are scant, they are not clearly erroneous.   See Outagamie Cty.
    v. Melanie L., 
    2013 WI 67
    , ¶38, 
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    , 
    833 N.W.2d 607
    ("We will not disturb a circuit court's factual findings unless
    they are clearly erroneous.").
    3
    No.      2017AP2217.rfd
    dangerous     in        accordance             with       the        statutory         mandate      of
    "substantial probability."
    ¶81    But even if, like the majority, I only consider Dr.
    Dave's     testimony      on    direct         examination,            the    record      is    still
    insufficient       to     support          a    finding         that       D.K.        evidences    a
    "substantial probability of physical harm to other individuals."
    The   majority     says     the      "clear          meaning"         of   Dr.     Dave's       direct
    examination       testimony         "is    that         D.K.    'presented         a    substantial
    risk of danger' '[t]o other people.'"                            Majority op., ¶45.                But
    what exactly is "a substantial risk of danger"?                                   At first blush,
    it    looks        similar          to         the        language           of        Wis.     Stat.
    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.:             "substantial probability of physical harm."
    However, a deeper look reveals important distinctions.
    ¶82    As    noted       by    the       majority         opinion,      the       legislature
    amended     Wis.   Stat.       § 51.20         in       1977    to    replace       "'substantial
    risk'" with "'substantial probability,'" signifying that there
    is a difference in meaning between these terms.                                   See Richards v.
    Badger Mut. Ins. Co., 
    2008 WI 52
    , ¶22, 
    309 Wis. 2d 541
    , 
    749 N.W.2d 581
     ("By analyzing the changes the legislature has made
    over the course of several years, we may be assisted in arriving
    at the meaning of a statute.").                          We recognized in Curiel that
    "there is no evidence that when the legislature amended Wis.
    Stat. § 51.20 in 1977 and replaced 'risk' with 'probability,' it
    did   so    with     a     view       that          'probability'            and       'risk'     were
    synonymous."       State v. Curiel, 
    227 Wis. 2d 389
    , 410, 
    597 N.W.2d 697
     (1999); see § 29, ch. 428, Laws of 1977; Drafting File for
    4
    No.   2017AP2217.rfd
    1977 Act 428, Analysis by the Legislative Reference Bureau of
    1977 A.B. 898, Legislative Reference Bureau, Madison, Wis.
    ¶83   Moreover, the term "substantial risk" has a meaning
    distinct from the term "substantial probability."                         This court
    often uses dictionary definitions to ascertain the meaning of
    words and phrases not defined by statute.                     Curiel, 227 Wis. 2d
    at 404.      The Merriam Webster Dictionary defines "risk" as a
    "possibility of loss or injury."               "Risk," Merriam Webster Online
    Dictionary      (2020),      https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/
    risk    (emphasis     added).           "Possible"     is     defined     as    "being
    something    that     may    or   may   not    occur."        "Possible,"       Merriam
    Webster      Online         Dictionary        (2020),         https://www.merriam-
    webster.com/dictionary/possible.               The common usage of the words
    testified to by Dr. Dave is that D.K. evidences a danger to
    other people that may or may not occur.                  In contrast, this court
    has defined "substantial probability," as "much more likely than
    not."    Curiel, 227 Wis. 2d at 406.
    ¶84   Possibility and probability are not, as the majority
    opinion assumes, simply interchangeable.                     This court has often
    said an expert opinion expressed in terms of possibility or
    conjecture is insufficient.              See Pucci v. Rausch, 
    51 Wis. 2d 513
    , 519, 
    187 N.W.2d 138
     (1971) (citing to cases dating back to
    1904 for this proposition).              The important distinction between
    possibility and probability was best described in Michalski v.
    Wagner, 
    9 Wis. 2d 22
    , 28, 
    100 N.W.2d 354
     (1960), where we held
    that    there   was    "no    probative       value"    to    a   medical      expert's
    5
    No.   2017AP2217.rfd
    testimony      that      it    was        possible          the    accident        caused   the
    plaintiff's injury.           We stated:
    Preponderance of mere possibilities is, of course, not
    the equivalent of a preponderance of probabilities.
    Mere possibilities leave the solution of an issue of
    fact in the field of conjecture and speculation to
    such an extent as to afford no basis for inferences to
    a reasonable certainty, and in the absence of at least
    such inferences there is no sufficient basis for a
    finding of fact.
    Id.    In a commitment case which carries an even higher burden of
    proof, an opinion testifying to clear and convincing evidence of
    possibilities is likewise of no probative value.
    ¶85    The majority concludes that a medical expert is not
    required to render an opinion to the standard set forth in Wis.
    Stat. § 51.20, and thus implicitly overrules Melanie L., 
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    .          In   Melanie         L.,       this    court       determined    that    a
    medical expert's opinion that Melanie L. was unable to apply an
    understanding "to her advantage" did not establish clear and
    convincing evidence of the statutory requirement that she be
    "substantially        incapable       of    applying         an     understanding      of    the
    advantages, disadvantages and alternatives" of medication.                                  Id.,
    ¶96.     We    emphasized          that    "[m]edical            experts    must    apply    the
    standards set out in the                  competency statute" and that "[a]n
    expert's      use   of     different        language          to    explain      his   or    her
    conclusions     should        be    linked       back       to     the   standards     in   the
    statute."       Id., ¶97 (emphasis added).                         We further determined
    that it is a county's burden to ensure that a medical expert
    applies the required standard:                        "[w]hen [corporation counsel]
    did not receive an answer in those [statutory] terms, he should
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    No.      2017AP2217.rfd
    have required his witness to expound upon his answer, so that
    the   circuit         court    and   a    reviewing        court      did       not    have     to
    speculate upon [the doctor's] meaning."                          Id., ¶91.             While no
    medical expert is required to be clairvoyant, and certainty is
    not required, Melanie L. signifies that a medical expert must
    testify to the standard set forth in § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.
    ¶86    Here, as in Melanie L., Dr. Dave did not testify to
    the   standards          set    forth       in       the   competency            statute       and
    corporation counsel failed to clarify the testimony or introduce
    his report into evidence.3                The majority attempts to distinguish
    Melanie     L.    by    claiming     that       Dr.    Dave    "did   not        misstate      the
    substance        of    the    standard;      he       merely    failed      to        recite    it
    exactly."        Majority op., ¶54.                  Dr. Dave did exactly what the
    majority     opinion         identified     as       improper:        he        misstated      the
    substance of the standard.                 The testimony of Dr. Dave using an
    alternate standard did not rise to the level of proof by clear
    and   convincing         evidence        that    D.K.      evidences        a    "substantial
    probability of physical harm to other[s]" as mandated by Wis.
    Stat. § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.              As this court warned in Melanie L.,
    "[Wis. Stat. ch. 51] hearings cannot be perfunctory under the
    3The majority opinion recognizes that the County "could
    have further developed its medical expert's testimony, moved the
    expert's report into evidence, and properly provided notice of
    its witnesses."   Majority op., ¶55.  We review only the record
    before us in a case, not the record that could have been made.
    See Covelli v. Covelli, 
    2006 WI App 121
    , ¶14, 
    293 Wis. 2d 707
    ,
    
    718 N.W.2d 260
     ("When reviewing fact finding, we search the
    record for evidence to support findings reached by the trial
    court, not for evidence to support findings the trial court did
    not but could have reached.").
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    No.   2017AP2217.rfd
    law.     Attention      to    detail      is       important."          Melanie    L.,   
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    , ¶94.
    ¶87    Since    the   record    before         the    circuit     court     reflects
    that    the   County's       only   witness          did     not    render    an     opinion
    regarding D.K.'s likelihood of dangerousness as defined in Wis.
    Stat.    § 51.20(1)(a)2.b.,         and     as      required       by   Melanie    L.,   
    349 Wis. 2d 148
    , I would reverse and vacate the circuit court's
    order.
    ¶88    For the foregoing reasons, I respectfully dissent.
    ¶89    I   am   authorized      to      state        that    Justice    ANN    WALSH
    BRADLEY joins this dissent.
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